Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Public and Research Interest in Telemedicine From 2017 to 2022: Infodemiology Study of Google Trends Data and Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Literature

BACKGROUND

Telemedicine offers a multitude of potential advantages, such as enhanced health care accessibility, cost reduction, and improved patient outcomes. The significance of telemedicine has been underscored by the COVID-19 pandemic, as it plays a crucial role in maintaining uninterrupted care while minimizing the risk of viral exposure. However, the adoption and implementation of telemedicine have been relatively sluggish in certain areas. Assessing the level of interest in telemedicine can provide valuable insights into areas that require enhancement.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the level of public and research interest in telemedicine from 2017 to 2022 and also consider any potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Google Trends data were retrieved using the search topics "telemedicine" or "e-health" to assess public interest, geographic distribution, and trends through a joinpoint regression analysis. Bibliographic data from Scopus were used to chart publications referencing the terms "telemedicine" or "eHealth" (in the title, abstract, and keywords) in terms of scientific production, key countries, and prominent keywords, as well as collaboration and co-occurrence networks.

RESULTS

Worldwide, telemedicine generated higher mean public interest (relative search volume=26.3%) compared to eHealth (relative search volume=17.6%). Interest in telemedicine remained stable until January 2020, experienced a sudden surge (monthly percent change=95.7%) peaking in April 2020, followed by a decline (monthly percent change=-22.7%) until August 2020, and then returned to stability. A similar trend was noted in the public interest regarding eHealth. Chile, Australia, Canada, and the United States had the greatest public interest in telemedicine. In these countries, moderate to strong correlations were evident between Google Trends and COVID-19 data (ie, new cases, new deaths, and hospitalized patients). Examining 19,539 original medical articles in the Scopus database unveiled a substantial rise in telemedicine-related publications, showing a total increase of 201.5% from 2017 to 2022 and an average annual growth rate of 24.7%. The most significant surge occurred between 2019 and 2020. Notably, the majority of the publications originated from a single country, with 20.8% involving international coauthorships. As the most productive country, the United States led a cluster that included Canada and Australia as well. European, Asian, and Latin American countries made up the remaining 3 clusters. The co-occurrence network categorized prevalent keywords into 2 clusters, the first cluster primarily focused on applying eHealth, mobile health (mHealth), or digital health to noncommunicable or chronic diseases; the second cluster was centered around the application of telemedicine and telehealth within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis of search and bibliographic data over time and across regions allows us to gauge the interest in this topic, offer evidence regarding potential applications, and pinpoint areas for additional research and awareness-raising initiatives.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Genetic, lifestyle and metabolic factors contributing to cardiovascular disease in the Italian population: a literature review

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represent a major health problem worldwide. In Italy, despite the decline in CVD mortality and disability-adjusted life years recently observed, CVD remains the leading cause of death. The development of CVD has a complex and multifactorial etiology that involves environmental, lifestyle/behavioral (e.g., unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol abuse), metabolic, and genetic factors. Although a large number of CVD susceptibility genetic variants have been identified, some seem to confer risk according to the genetic background or ethnicity of the population. Some CVD-associated polymorphisms with appreciable frequency in the Italian population may be important contributors to the development and progression of the most prevalent CVD in the population. This literature review aims to provide an overview of the epidemiology of CVD in Italy, as well as to highlight the main genetic, lifestyle/behavioral, and metabolic factors contributing to CVD risk in this population.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Exploring Gene-Diet Interactions for Mother-Child Health: A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Studies

BACKGROUND

Maternal-child health suggests the critical impact of maternal nutrition during the pre-conception and gestational periods, with some genetic variants also playing a significant role. Our systematic review provides an overview of epidemiological studies exploring the interactions between genetic variants, maternal dietary habits, and neonatal and/or maternal pregnancy outcomes.

METHODS

From its inception until June 2023, we conducted a comprehensive literature search on PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases.

RESULTS

On a total of 29 epidemiological studies, 11 studies were conducted to explore the interplay between genetic variants and dietary factors, focusing on the risks associated with gestational diabetes mellitus, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, recurrent spontaneous abortion, recurrent pregnancy loss, iron deficiency anemia, and gestational weight gain. Concerning neonatal outcomes, six studies investigated the interplay between genetic variants, dietary factors, and anthropometric measures, while eight studies delved into abnormal embryonic development, two studies focused on preterm birth, and two studies explored other neonatal outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Deeply understanding gene-diet interactions could be useful in developing highly personalized approaches to maternal and child nutrition, as well as in exploring the potential implications in disease prevention and the promotion of the long-term well-being of both mothers and their offspring.

Body Mass Index is related to short-term retinal worsening in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients treated with anticancer drugs

BACKGROUND

In cancer patients with diabetes, anticancer drugs (ADs) may negatively affect the course of diabetes vascular complications. The short-term effects of ADs on type 2 diabetes (T2DM) retinopathy are poorly known. This study evaluated the short-term effects of different classes of ADs on diabetic retinopathy (DR) and clinical risk factors for retinal worsening (RW) in cancer patients affected by T2DM.

METHODS

Retrospective single-center study evaluating 168 patients with T2DM and cancer. The diagnosis of T2DM preceded those of cancer in all patients. We evaluated the retinal short-term effects within the six months after the first-line ADs treatment.

RESULTS

After ADs, 6% of patients had a short-term RW. BMI is positively associated with the risk of RW (OR 1.45, 95% confidence interval: 1.1-1.9, P<0.005). Patients treated with alkylating agents and topoisomerase inhibitors have an increased risk of RW (P=0.049 and P=0.057, respectively) and a significantly higher HDL level (P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this study is the first investigating the short-term impact of ADs on DR of T2DM patients. Moreover, we provide information arose from a real-world setting. As confirmed by other studies, these findings could help to identify patients at risk for short-term RW, who should be promptly referred to the ophthalmologist for the prevention of visual impairment.

Nursing students' Health Literacy skills: a scoping review protocol for driving research

INTRODUCTION

The healthcare systems in Europe are changing rapidly due to the increased complexity of healthcare needs, specifically for the ageing population with chronic diseases. Nurses play a key role in providing care for patients with chronic diseases, encouraging patients to take care of their own health improving their Health Literacy (HL) too. Previous works have highlighted the paucity of HL content in nursing curricula, and the need to prioritise the development of HL skills in academic teaching and assessment methods. The aim of this study is to analyse HL skills nursing literature to further develop scientific knowledge in this area of research.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This scoping review will be conducted following Arksey and O'Malley's framework. This study is based on the Joanna Briggs Institute manual. A systematic search will be performed by four researchers using the electronic databases of MEDLINE (via PubMed), the Education Resources Information Centre, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar. We will include any paper that focuses on HL skills and undergraduate nursing students. We will select every primary study (quantitative, qualitative and mixed method design) published in peer-reviewed journals up until February 2023, in both Italian and English language, without any time limit.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This scoping review is part of a large project of the University of Catania which aims at developing higher educational standards for nursing student. This project will not involve patients/public and does not require ethical committee approval. This scoping review will be submitted to international peer-reviewed journals.

REGISTRATION DETAILS

The protocol was registered with the Open Science Framework on 20 April 2023 (https://osf.io/cn8d7).

Implementation of a centralized, web-based surveillance for healthcare associated infections among residents of long-term care facilities in Italy

Objective

The Italian National Action Plan to contrast AMR identified among its objectives the development and implementation of a national Healthcare-Associated Infection (HAI) surveillance system based on European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) indications, through point prevalence surveys (PPS) of HAIs and antibiotic use in acute-care hospitals and long-term care facilities (LTCFs). We aimed to assess feasibility and appropriateness of proposed tools for a national surveillance system of HAIs and antibiotic use in LTCFs.

Study design

Point prevalence survey.

Methods

A pilot PPS was conducted between May-June 2022, among 15 LTCFs of 7 Italian regions. Data were collected in a single day in each LTCF, at the LTCF, ward, and resident levels, using a web-based data collection tool developed ad hoc. Data collector teams of each facility were invited to complete a questionnaire investigating opinions on the proposed tools.

Results

Among 1025 included residents, the prevalence of residents with at least one HAI was 2.5% (95% CI 1.7%-3.7%) considering all HAIs and 2.2% (95% CI 1.3%-3%) without considering SARS-CoV-2 infections. The prevalence of antimicrobial use was 3% (95% CI 0.2%-4.3%). Overall, most respondents were satisfied with the web-based software, training and protocol, even though some difficulties were reported.

Conclusions

A national surveillance network was established, which will facilitate future surveillance efforts. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the impact of the pandemic on HAI transmission and antibiotic use in LTCFs.

Association between quality of governance, antibiotic consumption, and antimicrobial resistance: an analysis of Italian regions

BACKGROUND

Emerging research has provided evidence suggesting the potential influence of governance on the development and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), accounting for significant disparities observed both between and within countries. In our study, we conducted an ecological analysis to investigate the relationship between governance quality, antibiotic consumption, and AMR across Italian regions.

METHODS

By leveraging data from three distinct sources at the regional level, we compiled a comprehensive dataset comprising: AMR proportions for three specific pathogen-antibiotic combinations in the year 2021, antibiotic consumption data for systemic use in the year 2020, and the 2021 European Quality of Government Index (EQI) and its corresponding pillars. Employing mediation analysis, we investigated the potential mediating role of antibiotic consumption in the association between the EQI and an average measure of AMR.

RESULTS

Our analysis revealed substantial variation in the percentages of AMR across different regions in Italy, demonstrating a discernible North-to-South gradient concerning both antibiotic usage and governance quality. The EQI exhibited a statistically significant negative correlation with both antibiotic consumption and AMR percentages, encompassing both specific combinations and their average value. Regions characterized by higher levels of governance quality consistently displayed lower values of antibiotic consumption and AMR, while regions with lower governance quality tended to exhibit higher levels of antibiotic use and AMR. Furthermore, we observed a significant total effect of the EQI on average AMR (β = - 0.97; CI - 1.51; - 0.43). Notably, this effect was found to be mediated by antibiotic consumption, as evidenced by a significant indirect effect (β = - 0.89; CI - 1.45; - 0.32).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings draw attention to the regional disparities observed in AMR levels, antibiotic consumption patterns, and governance quality in Italy. Our study also highlights the mediating role of antibiotic consumption in the relationship between governance quality and AMR. This underscores the significance of implementing focused interventions and policies aimed at improving governance quality and promoting responsible antibiotic use.

Molecular Typing and Resistance Profile of Acinetobacter baumannii Isolates during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from the "EPIRADIOCLINF" Project

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a shift in focus towards controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, which has resulted in the neglect of traditional programs aimed at preventing healthcare-associated infections and combating antimicrobial resistance. The present work aims to characterize the colonization or infection with Acinetobacter baumannii of COVID-19 patients and to identify any clonality between different isolates. Specifically, data and resistance profiles of A. baumannii isolates were prospectively collected from patients recruited by the EPIRADIOCLINF project. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) were used for molecular typing. Overall, we analyzed 64 isolates of A. baumannii from 48 COVID-19 patients. According to our analysis, we have identified the spread of a clonally related isolate, referred to as B. The PFGE pattern B includes four subtypes: B1 (consisting of 37 strains), B2 (11), B3 (5), and B4 (2). Furthermore, in the isolates that were examined using MLST, the most observed sequence type was ST/281. In terms of resistance profiles, 59 out of the total isolates (92.2%) were found to be resistant to gentamicin, carbapenems, ciprofloxacin, and tobramycin. The isolation and identification of A. baumannii from COVID-19 patients, along with the high levels of transmission observed within the hospital setting, highlight the urgent need for the implementation of effective prevention and containment strategies.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

The intertwining of healthcare-associated infections and COVID-19 in Italian intensive care units: an analysis of the SPIN-UTI project from 2006 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Although healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) pose an extraordinary burden on public health, the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still a matter of debate.

AIM

To describe trends of HAIs in Italian intensive care units (ICUs) from 2006 to 2021, and to compare characteristics and outcomes of patients with or without COVID-19.

METHODS

We evaluated patients participating in the 'Italian Nosocomial Infections Surveillance in Intensive Care Units' (SPIN-UTI) project, who were admitted to ICUs for more than 48 h. Data regarding diagnosis, clinical conditions, therapies, treatments and outcomes of COVID-19 patients were also collected.

FINDINGS

From a total of 21,523 patients from 2006 to 2021, 3485 (16.2%) presented at least one HAI. We observed an increasing trend for both the incidence of patients with HAI and the incidence density of HAIs (P-trend <0.001). Compared with the pre-pandemic period, the incidence density of HAIs increased by about 15% in 2020-2021, with pneumoniae being the greatest contributors to this increase (P-trend <0.001). Moreover, incidence of HAIs was higher in ICUs dedicated to COVID-19 patients (P<0.001), who showed a greater risk of HAIs and death than patients without COVID-19 (P-values <0.001). Accordingly, the mortality in ICUs increased over the years and doubled during the pandemic (P-trend <0.001). Notably, co-infected patients had higher mortality (75.2%) than those with COVID-19 (66.2%) or HAI (39.9%) alone, and those without any infection (23.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis provides useful insight into whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced HAI incidence and death in Italian ICUs, highlighting the need for evaluation of the long-term effects of the pandemic.

Updates on developing and applying biosensors for the detection of microorganisms, antimicrobial resistance genes and antibiotics: a scoping review

Background

The inappropriate use of antibiotics in clinical and non-clinical settings contributes to the increasing prevalence of multidrug-resistant microorganisms. Contemporary endeavours are focused on exploring novel technological methodologies, striving to create cost-effective and valuable alternatives for detecting microorganisms, antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs), and/or antibiotics across diverse matrices. Within this context, there exists an increasingly pressing demand to consolidate insights into potential biosensors and their implications for public health in the battle against antimicrobial resistance (AMR).

Methods

A scoping review was carried out to map the research conducted on biosensors for the detection of microorganisms, ARGs and/or antibiotics in clinical and environmental samples. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist was used. Articles published from 1999 to November 2022 and indexed in the following databases were included: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, BIOSIS Citation index, Derwent Innovations index, and KCI-Korean Journal.

Results

The 48 studies included in the scoping review described the development and/or validation of biosensors for the detection of microorganisms, ARGs and/or antibiotics. At its current stage, the detection of microorganisms and/or ARGs has focused primarily on the development and validation of biosensors in clinical and bacterial samples. By contrast, the detection of antibiotics has focused primarily on the development and validation of biosensors in environmental samples. Asides from target and samples, the intrinsic characteristics of biosensors described in the scoping review were heterogenous. Nonetheless, the number of studies assessing the efficacy and validation of the aforementioned biosensor remained limited, and there was also a lack of comparative analyses against conventional molecular techniques.

Conclusion

Promoting high-quality research is essential to facilitate the integration of biosensors as innovative technologies within the realm of public health challenges, such as antimicrobial resistance AMR. Adopting a One-Health approach, it becomes imperative to delve deeper into these promising and feasible technologies, exploring their potential across diverse sample sets and matrices.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Locking plates for distal fibula fractures in young and elderly patients: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Ankle fractures are common injuries in the young and elderly populations. To prevent post-traumatic arthritis, an anatomic reconstruction of the ankle structure is mandatory. Open reduction and internal fixation is the treatment of choice among orthopaedics. Conventional plates allow stability of the fracture if bone quality is present. Locking plates might offer an advantage for the treatment of lateral malleolar fracture in patients with comminution, severe instability, distal fractures, or osteoporotic bone. Our hospital introduced a new locking plate for fracture of the distal fibula.

AIM

To evaluate locking plates in terms of outcomes and complications in young and elderly patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed a total of 67 patients treated for displaced distal fibula fractures. Demographic data, number of comorbidities, use of inter fragmentary screw, complication, time of fracture healing, partial or full weight bearing, and reoperation were recorded for all patients. Clinical outcome was assessed by the American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society clinical scoring system. Radiographs were obtained at 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 wk until radiographic union was obtained.

RESULTS

All patients displayed complete bony union on radiographic assessment, and no patients developed any serious complications. We observed two superficial infections, one delayed wound healing, and two plate intolerances. Significant differences were observed between the two age groups in terms of radiographic healing (11.9 wk in younger patients vs 13.7 wk in older patients; P = 0.011) and in the American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society score at 6 mo after surgery (88.2 in younger patients vs 86.0 in older patients; P = 0.001) and at 12 mo after surgery (92.6 in younger patients vs 90.0 in older patients; P = 0.000).

CONCLUSION

Locking plates provide a stable and rigid fixation in multifragmentary and comminuted fractures or in the presence of poor bone quality.

Gender differences in comorbidities of patients with COVID-19: An Italian local register-based analysis

In the current COVID-19 pandemic scenario, it is still necessary to understand if differences exist between genders in terms of patients' characteristics and clinical outcomes. For this reason, we retrospectively analyzed data obtained from a local register-based dataset of all SARS-CoV-2 positive patients diagnosed in the province of Catania (Italy). The main aim of this analysis was to understand any differences between genders in the distribution of previous medical conditions, and to evaluate which of them posed individuals at higher risk of death. With this purpose, we analyzed data from 1424 patients with at least one underlying medical condition, who were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection from February 2020 to December 2021. Overall, males were 59.5% of the total population and significantly younger than females (median ages: 68 years vs. 72 years; p = 0.011). The age distribution of cases by gender confirms that individuals from 70 to 79 years were the most affected in both genders. The comparison of underlying comorbidities by gender shows significant differences for diabetes (p < 0.001), other metabolic diseases (p = 0.006), and obesity (p = 0.019). Accordingly, multivariable logistic regression analysis confirmed that diabetes was more likely to be present in males than in females (p = 0.001), while other metabolic diseases and obesity were less likely to be present (p = 0.003 and p = 0.005, respectively). Although no difference in mortality was evident between genders (p = 0.141), both male and female COVID-19 patients had a significantly higher risk of death if they had comorbidities such as CVDs, kidney diseases, or chronic neurological diseases. Moreover, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases were significant risk factors for COVID-19 mortality among men, whereas cancer was a significant contributor among women. Our findings confirm gender-differences in pre-existing medical conditions of COVID-19 patients, which may influence the risk of death. Further studies, however, are needed to understand physiological and pathological mechanisms underpinning these differences.

Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor monotherapy or combined with verteporfin photodynamic therapy for retinal angiomatous proliferation: a systematic review with meta-analysis

Purpose: To assess functional and anatomical outcomes of intravitreal anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (anti-VEGF) monotherapy versus combined with verteporfin Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) for Retinal Angiomatous Proliferation (RAP). Methods: Studies reporting outcomes of intravitreal anti-VEGF monotherapy and/or in combination with verteporfin PDT in RAP eyes with a follow-up ≥ 12 months were searched. The primary outcome was the mean change in best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 12 months. Mean change in central macular thickness (CMT) and mean number of injections were considered as secondary outcomes. The mean difference (MD) between pre- and post-treatment values was calculated along with 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI). Meta-regressions were performed to assess the influence of anti-VEGF number of injections on BCVA and CMT outcomes. Results: Thirty-four studies were included. A mean gain of 5.16 letters (95% CI = 3.30-7.01) and 10.38 letters (95% CI = 8.02-12.75) was shown in the anti-VEGF group and combined group, respectively (anti-VEGF group vs. combined group, p < 0.01). A mean CMT reduction of 132.45 µm (95% CI = from -154.99 to -109.90) and 213.93 µm (95% CI = from -280.04 to -147.83) was shown in the anti-VEGF group and combined group, respectively (anti-VEGF group vs. combined group, p < 0.02). A mean of 4.9 injections (95% CI = 4.2-5.6) and 2.8 injections (95% CI = 1.3-4.4) were administered over a 12-month period in the anti-VEGF group and combined group, respectively. Meta-regression analyses showed no influence of injection number on visual and CMT outcomes. High heterogeneity was found across studies for both functional and anatomical outcomes. Conclusion: A combined approach with anti-VEGF and PDT could provide better functional and anatomical outcomes in RAP eyes compared with anti-VEGF monotherapy.

Gut Microbiome in the Progression of NAFLD, NASH and Cirrhosis, and Its Connection with Biotics: A Bibliometric Study Using Dimensions Scientific Research Database

There is growing evidence that gut microbiota dysbiosis is linked to the etiopathogenesis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), from the initial stage of disease until the progressive stage of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and the final stage of cirrhosis. Conversely, probiotics, prebiotics, and synbiotics have shown promise in restoring dysbiosis and lowering clinical indicators of disease in a number of both preclinical and clinical studies. Additionally, postbiotics and parabiotics have recently garnered some attention. The purpose of this bibliometric analysis is to assess recent publishing trends concerning the role of the gut microbiome in the progression of NAFLD, NASH and cirrhosis and its connection with biotics. The free access version of the Dimensions scientific research database was used to find publications in this field from 2002 to 2022. VOSviewer and Dimensions' integrated tools were used to analyze current research trends. Research into the following topics is expected to emerge in this field: (1) evaluation of risk factors which are correlated with the progression of NAFLD, such as obesity and metabolic syndrome; (2) pathogenic mechanisms, such as liver inflammation through toll-like receptors activation, or alteration of short-chain fatty acids metabolisms, which contribute to NAFLD development and its progression in more severe forms, such as cirrhosis; (3) therapy for cirrhosis through dysbiosis reduction, and research on hepatic encephalopathy a common consequence of cirrhosis; (4) evaluation of diversity, and composition of gut microbiome under NAFLD, and as it varies under NASH and cirrhosis by rRNA gene sequencing, a tool which can also be used for the development of new probiotics and explore into the impact of biotics on the gut microbiome; (5) treatments to reduce dysbiosis with new probiotics, such as Akkermansia, or with fecal microbiome transplantation.

Early Warning Systems for Emerging Profiles of Antimicrobial Resistance in Italy: A National Survey

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) national surveillance systems in Italy lack alert systems for timely detection of emerging profiles of AMR with potential relevance to public health. Furthermore, the existence of early warning systems (EWS) at subnational level is unclear. This study aims at mapping and characterizing EWS for microbiological threats available at regional level in Italy, focusing on emerging AMR, and at outlining potential barriers and facilitators to their development/implementation. To this end, a three-section, web-based survey was developed and administered to all Italian regional AMR representatives from June to August 2022. Twenty out of twenty-one regions and autonomous provinces (95.2%) responded to the survey. Among these, nine (45%) reported the implementation of EWS for microbiological threats at regional level, three (15%) reported that EWS are in the process of being developed, and eight (40%) reported that EWS are not currently available. EWS characteristics varied widely among the identified systems concerning both AMR profiles reported and data flow: the microorganisms most frequently included were extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Enterobacterales, with the lack of a dedicated regional IT platform reported in most cases. The results of this study depict a highly heterogeneous scenario and suggest that more efforts aimed at strengthening national AMR surveillance systems are needed.

Socioeconomic and Governance Factors Disentangle the Relationship between Temperature and Antimicrobial Resistance: A 10-Year Ecological Analysis of European Countries

Although previous studies showed that warmer temperatures may be associated with increased antimicrobial resistance (AMR) rates, unmeasured factors may explain the observed relationship. We conducted a ten-year ecological analysis to evaluate whether temperature change was associated with AMR across 30 European countries, considering predictors that can determine a geographical gradient. Using four data sources, we created a dataset of: annual temperature change (FAOSTAT database); AMR proportions for ten pathogen-antibiotic combinations (ECDC atlas); consumption of antibiotics for systemic use in the community (ESAC-Net database); population density, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and governance indicators (World Bank DataBank). Data were obtained for each country and year (2010-2019) and analyzed through multivariable models. We found evidence of a positive linear association between temperature change and AMR proportion across all countries, years, pathogens, and antibiotics (β = 0.140; 95%CI = 0.039; 0.241; p = 0.007), adjusting for the effect of covariates. However, when GDP per capita and the governance index were included in the multivariable model, temperature change was no longer associated with AMR. Instead, the main predictors were antibiotic consumption (β = 0.506; 95%CI = 0.366; 0.646; p < 0.001), population density (β = 0.143; 95%CI = 0.116; 0.170; p < 0.001), and the governance index (β = -1.043; 95%CI = -1.207; -0.879; p < 0.001). Ensuring the appropriate use of antibiotics and improving governance efficiency are the most effective ways of counteracting AMR. It is necessary to conduct further experimental studies and obtain more detailed data to investigate whether climate change affects AMR.

The Effect of Maternal Dietary Patterns on Birth Weight for Gestational Age: Findings from the MAMI-MED Cohort

Limited evidence exists on the effects of maternal dietary patterns on birth weight, and most studies conducted so far did not adjust their findings for gestational age and sex, leading to potentially biased conclusions. In the present study, we applied a novel method, namely the clustering on principal components, to derive dietary patterns among 667 pregnant women from Catania (Italy) and to evaluate the associations with birth weight for gestational age. We identified two clusters reflecting distinct dietary patterns: the first one was mainly characterized by plant-based foods (e.g., potatoes, cooked and raw vegetables, legumes, soup, fruits, nuts, rice, wholemeal bread), fish and white meat, eggs, butter and margarine, coffee and tea; the second one consisted mainly of junk foods (sweets, dips, salty snacks, and fries), pasta, white bread, milk, vegetable and olive oils. Regarding small gestational age births, the main predictors were employment status and primiparity, but not the adherence to dietary patterns. By contrast, women belonging to cluster 2 had higher odds of large for gestational age (LGA) births than those belonging to cluster 1 (OR = 2.213; 95%CI = 1.047-4.679; p = 0.038). Moreover, the odds of LGA increased by nearly 11% for each one-unit increase in pregestational BMI (OR = 1.107; 95%CI = 1.053-1.163; p < 0.001). To our knowledge, the present study is the first to highlight a relationship between adherence to an unhealthy dietary pattern and the likelihood of giving birth to a LGA newborn. This evidence adds to the current knowledge about the effects of diet on birth weight, which, however, remains limited and controversial.

Socio-economic, governance and health indicators shaping antimicrobial resistance: an ecological analysis of 30 european countries

BACKGROUND

Previous evidence shows that antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) spread are not always perfectly correlated within and between countries. We conducted an ecological analysis to evaluate how demographic, economic, governance, health, and freedom characteristics of 30 European countries contribute to antibiotic consumption and AMR.

METHODS

Using three sources of data (World Bank DataBank, ECDC atlas, and the ESAC-Net database), we created a dataset of: 22 indicators of demographics, health, economic, governance, and freedom; AMR proportions for 25 combinations of pathogens and antibiotics; consumption of antibiotics in the community. We also computed five indexes of demographic, health, economic, governance, and freedom, and an aggregate AMR measure. Relationships between indexes, antibiotic consumption, and AMR proportions were explored using bivariate, multivariable, multivariate, and mediation analyses.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis identified three clusters of countries that mainly differed for demographic, health, governance, and freedom indexes. AMR proportion was lower in countries with better indexes (p < 0.001), but not necessarily with lower antibiotic consumption. In multivariable models including all five indexes, an increase in the governance index resulted in significant decreases of overall antibiotic consumption (p < 0.001) and AMR proportion (p = 0.006). Mediation analysis showed that the governance index had an indirect effect on AMR via reducing antibiotic consumption, which accounted only for 31.5% of the total effect.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings could be - at least partially - explained by the contagion theory, for which other factors contribute to high levels of AMR in countries with poor governance. As a result of this evidence, reducing antibiotic use alone is unlikely to solve the AMR problem, and more interventions are needed to increase governance efficiency at global level.

Air microbial sampling in operating theatres by active and passive methods: equation correlation from the GISIO-ISChIA study results and comparison with the EU GGMP recommendation, towards the definition of threshold values

The aim of this study was to calculate the equation of correlation between the microbial air contamination values obtained by active sampling (colony-forming units per cubic metre, CFU/m3) and by passive sampling (Index of microbial air contamination, IMA), by using the data from the ISChIA study, and to compare the values obtained with the recommended limits defined by the EU Guidelines to Good Manufacturing Practice (EU GGMP), 2008, for clean areas used to manufacture sterile medicinal products. Air sampling was performed during 335 elective prosthesis procedures. Correlation between CFU/m3 and IMA values was evaluated using the Spearman test; p<0.05 was considered to indicate significance. This equation was used to calculate the IMA values corresponding to the CFU/m3 recommended threshold values by EU GGMP for the different Grades of microbial contamination. The following correlation equation was obtained: y = 1.86 + 0.12x, where "x" = cfu/m3 value and "y" = IMA value. The relationships between CFU/m3 and IMA values obtained from active and passive sampling during the ISChIA study showed to be in line to those suggested by the EU GGMP for pharmaceutical manufacturing for Grade C and D. This study shows that the EU GGMP relationship could be considered valid also for operating theatres. Both methods, active and passive samplings, can be used to evaluate microbial air quality and highlight critical situations; however, in particular during the activity, passive sampling estimating the risk posed by airborne microorganisms to the surgical wound, can be considered more relevant, and for its simplicity, economy and standardization, can be suggested for routine microbial monitoring.

How Wearable Sensors Can Support the Research on Foetal and Pregnancy Outcomes: A Scoping Review

The application of innovative technologies, and in particular of wearable devices, can potentially transform the field of antenatal care with the aim of improving maternal and new-born health through a personalized approach. The present study undertakes a scoping review to systematically map the literature about the use wearable sensors in the research of foetal and pregnancy outcomes. Online databases were used to identify papers published between 2000-2022, from which we selected 30 studies: 9 on foetal outcomes and 21 on maternal outcomes. Included studies focused primarily on the use of wearable devices for monitoring foetal vital signs (e.g., foetal heart rate and movements) and maternal activity during pregnancy (e.g., sleep patterns and physical activity levels). There were many studies that focused on development and/or validation of wearable devices, even if often they included a limited number of pregnant women without pregnancy complications. Although their findings support the potential adoption of wearable devices for both antenatal care and research, there is still insufficient evidence to design effective interventions. Therefore, high quality research is needed to determine which and how wearable devices could support antenatal care.

How COVID-19 Pandemic Has Influenced Public Interest in Foods: A Google Trends Analysis of Italian Data

Controversy exists about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dietary habits, with studies demonstrating both benefits and drawbacks of this period. We analyzed Google Trends data on specific terms and arguments related to different foods (i.e., fruits, vegetables, legumes, whole grains, nuts and seeds, milk, red meat, processed meat, and sugar-sweetened beverages) in order to evaluate the interest of Italian people before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Joinpoint regression models were applied to identify the possible time points at which public interest in foods changed (i.e., joinpoints). Interestingly, public interest in specific food categories underwent substantial changes during the period under examination. While some changes did not seem to be related to the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., legumes and red meat), public interest in fruit, vegetables, milk, and whole grains increased significantly, especially during the first lockdown. It should be noted, however, that the interest in food-related issues returned to prepandemic levels after the first lockdown period. Thus, more efforts and ad hoc designed studies should be encouraged to evaluate the duration and direction of the COVID-19 pandemic's influence.

How Antimicrobial Resistance Is Linked to Climate Change: An Overview of Two Intertwined Global Challenges

Globally, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and climate change (CC) are two of the top health emergencies, and can be considered as two interlinked public health priorities. The complex commonalities between AMR and CC should be deeply investigated in a One Health perspective. Here, we provided an overview of the current knowledge about the relationship between AMR and CC. Overall, the studies included pointed out the need for applying a systemic approach to planetary health. Firstly, CC increasingly brings humans and animals into contact, leading to outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases with pandemic potential. Although it is well-established that antimicrobial use in human, animal and environmental sectors is one of the main drivers of AMR, the COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating the current scenario, by influencing the use of antibiotics, personal protective equipment, and biocides. This also results in higher concentrations of contaminants (e.g., microplastics) in natural water bodies, which cannot be completely removed from wastewater treatment plants, and which could sustain the AMR spread. Our overview underlined the lack of studies on the direct relationship between AMR and CC, and encouraged further research to investigate the multiple aspects involved, and its effect on human health.

Microbiological surveillance post-reprocessing of flexible endoscopes used in digestive endoscopy: a national study

INTRODUCTION

Microbiological surveillance of endoscopes is a safety measure for verifying the quality of reprocessing procedures and identifying contaminated devices, but duodenoscope-related outbreaks are still reported.

AIM

To assess the effectiveness of duodenoscope reprocessing procedures in Italy.

METHODS

Between December 2019 and April 2020, data obtained from microbiological surveillance post-reprocessing in 15 Italian endoscopy units were collected. Sampling was carried out after reprocessing or during storage in a cabinet. In keeping with international guidelines and the Italian position paper, the micro-organisms were classified as high-concern organisms (HCOs) and low-concern organisms (LCOs).

FINDINGS

In total, 144 samples were collected from 51 duodenoscopes. Of these, 36.81% were contaminated: 22.92% were contaminated with HCOs and 13.89% were contaminated with LCOs [2.08% with an LCO load of 11-100 colony-forming units (CFU)/device and 0.69% with an LCO load of >100 CFU/device]. The contamination rate was 27.5% in samples collected after reprocessing, 40% in samples collected during storage in a cabinet that was compliant with EN 16442:2015 (C-I), and 100% in samples collected during storage in a cabinet that was not compliant with EN 16442:2015 (NC-I). The respective HCO rates were 15.00%, 27.27% and 66.67%. Correlation between LCO contamination and storage time was demonstrated (Spearman's rho=0.3701; P=0.0026). The Olympus duodenoscope TJFQ180V demonstrated the lowest rate of contamination (29.82%), although the contamination rate was 100% for duodenoscopes stored in an NC-I cabinet.

CONCLUSION

Microbiological surveillance, along with strict adherence to reprocessing protocols, may help to detect endoscope contamination at an early stage, and reduce the risk of duodenoscope-associated infections.

Preoperative Risk Factors for Conversion from Laparoscopic to Open Cholecystectomy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy is a standard treatment for patients with gallstones in the gallbladder. However, multiple risk factors affect the probability of conversion from laparoscopic cholecystectomy to open surgery. A greater understanding of the preoperative factors related to conversion is crucial to improve patient safety. In the present systematic review, we summarized the current knowledge about the main factors associated with conversion. Next, we carried out several meta-analyses to evaluate the impact of independent clinical risk factors on conversion rate. Male gender (OR = 1.907; 95%CI = 1.254−2.901), age > 60 years (OR = 4.324; 95%CI = 3.396−5.506), acute cholecystitis (OR = 5.475; 95%CI = 2.959−10.130), diabetes (OR = 2.576; 95%CI = 1.687−3.934), hypertension (OR = 1.931; 95%CI = 1.018−3.662), heart diseases (OR = 2.947; 95%CI = 1.047−8.296), obesity (OR = 2.228; 95%CI = 1.162−4.271), and previous upper abdominal surgery (OR = 3.301; 95%CI = 1.965−5.543) increased the probability of conversion. Our analysis of clinical factors suggested the presence of different preoperative conditions, which are non-modifiable but could be useful for planning the surgical scenario and improving the post-operatory phase.

Intravitreal dexamethasone implant versus anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy combined with cataract surgery in patients with diabetic macular oedema: a systematic review with meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare outcomes of cataract surgery combined with either anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (anti-VEGF) therapy or dexamethasone implant (DEX) in patients with diabetic macular oedema (DMO).

METHODS

Pubmed and Embase databases were searched for studies reporting outcomes of diabetic cataract surgery combined with either anti-VEGF or DEX, with a follow-up ≥3 months. The primary outcome was the mean change in central macular thickness (CMT). Mean change in best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was considered as a secondary outcome. The mean difference between baseline and post-treatment values (MD) with 95%-Confidence Interval (95%CI) was calculated and meta-analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Nine-teen studies were included, 8 in the DEX group and 11 in the anti-VEGF group. A significant reduction of macular thickness was shown in the DEX group at 3 months (MD = -98.35 µm; 95% CI, -147.15/-49.54), while mean CMT change was non-significant in the anti-VEGF group (MD = -21.61 µm; 95% CI, -59.46/16.24; test of group differences, P < 0.001). At 3 months, no difference in visual gain was found between the two groups (P = 0.13).

CONCLUSIONS

In DMO patients, cataract surgery combined with DEX seems to provide better anatomical outcomes compared with cataract surgery combined with anti-VEGF therapy. However, our evidence was limited by significant heterogeneity. Randomised trials comparing these two different combined approaches are warranted.

Vaccination coverage in Italian children and antimicrobial resistance: an ecological analysis

Background

Although a general consensus that vaccines could be a complementary strategy against antimicrobial resistance (AMR), there is still the need for studies investigating the relationship between childhood vaccination coverage and AMR proportions in the overall population.

Methods

We performed an ecological analysis of available Italian data (vaccination coverages, AMR proportions, number of isolates tested, and antibiotic use) to evaluate the relationships between vaccination coverages in children and AMR proportions in the last 2 decades.

Results

After adjusting for covariates, we showed that AMR proportions decreased with increasing vaccination coverages, especially for some combinations of vaccines, pathogens, and antimicrobials. Vaccination coverages for pertussis, diphtheria, and tetanus were inversely related to proportions of E. coli resistant to fluoroquinolones and third generation cephalosporins, K. pneumoniae resistant to carbapenems and third generation cephalosporins, and P. aeruginosa resistant to piperacillin and tazobactam. Polio vaccination coverage was inversely related to proportions of E. coli and K. pneumoniae resistant to third generation cephalosporins.

Conclusions

These results, however, should be interpreted cautiously due to the ecological nature of our analysis. For this reason, further studies designed ad hoc should be encouraged to measure the impact of increasing childhood vaccination coverage on AMR.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13756-022-01173-0.

Association of hospital/ICU characteristics with HAIs: findings from the SPIN-UTI project

Background

Preventing the spread of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) constitutes a priority for Public Health. In a country with decentralized healthcare system, the comparison between and within regions might represent a useful approach to identify what hospital and ICU indicators are associated with HAIs.

Methods

Using data from the SPIN-UTI (”Sorveglianza attiva Prospettica delle Infezioni Nosocomiali nelle Unità di Terapia Intensiva”) network, the present analyses aimed to identify the main hospital and ICU indicators associated with HAI incidence at national level, and to stratify the analyses between Italian regions.

Results

No associations between hospital/ICU characteristics and HAIs were evident at national level. However, ICUs in Southern Italy showed the highest incidence density of HAIs if compared with those in Central and Northern Italy (p &lt; 0.001). Stratified analyses found a positive association of incidence density of HAIs and total days in ICU in Northern Italy (β = 0.3; SE = 0.1; p = 0.002); a positive associations with ICU size (β = 1.8; SE = 0.7; p = 0.020), total days in hospital (β = 0.06; SE = 0.02; p = 0.037) and total days in ICU (β = 0.5; SE = 0.1; p = 0.006) in Center Italy; a positive association with hospital size in Southern Italy (β = 20.3; SE = 9.4; p = 0.033).

Conclusions

Although our study confirms that HAIs still represent an important issue in Italian ICUs, there is some variation between regions from Northern, Central and Southern Italy. In general, we found that HAI incidence increased with increasing number of beds in hospital and in ICU, as well as with the the increasing number of patient-days. However, further research is necessary to better understand if additional hospital and ICU characteristics could motivate the observed regional differences.

Key messages

• There is a large regional variation in the incidence of HAIs in Italian ICUs and hospitals.

• This difference that could be motivated by specific hospital and ICU characteristics.

Do Nutrients and Nutraceuticals Play a Role in Diabetic Retinopathy? A Systematic Review

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a multifactorial neuro-microvascular disease, whose prevalence ranges from 25% to 60% of subjects affected by diabetes mellitus, representing the main cause of legal blindness in adults of industrialized countries. The treatment of advanced stage of DR is based on invasive and expensive therapies, while few strategies are available for the early stage or prevention. The mechanisms underlying DR involve a complex interplay between the detrimental effects of hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, hypoxia, and oxidative stress, providing several pathways potentially targeted by nutrients and nutraceuticals. In this study, we conducted a systematic review of observational and interventional studies, evaluating the effect of nutrients and/or nutraceuticals on the risk of DR and their potential use for the treatment of patients with DR. The analysis of the 41 included studies (27 observational and 14 interventional studies) suggests a promising preventive role of some nutrients, in particular for vitamins B (i.e., B1 and B12), D, and E. However, further investigations are necessary to clarify the potential clinical application of nutraceuticals in the prevention and treatment of DR.

Categorical principal component analysis to characterize patients at Intensive Care Unit admission

Background

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are the most frequent complications in healthcare settings, with a major impact on adverse outcomes. Here, we aimed to identify the relationships between patients’ characteristics admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs).

Methods

We used data of patients included in the “Italian Nosocomial Infections Surveillance in Intensive Care Units” (SPIN-UTI) project, who stayed in ICU for more than 2 days. Using Categorical principal component analysis (CATPCA) two components of risk were assessed. Values of variance accounted for (VAF) >0.3 were accepted as the significant effect of a variable on each component. A Chronbach’s alpha >0.7 was accepted as a measure of the internal consistency of the model.

Results

A total of 22402 admissions (62% female) were included. The average age was 65.7 years (SD = 16.6). Our model explains 35.3% of the total variability, with a Cronbach's alpha value of 0.847. The visual examination of component loading plot allows to evaluate the correlation between the quantified variables and each of the two components. In particular, the first component is explained by the presence of intubation (VAF=0.826), central venous catheter (VAF=0.749), and urinary catheter (VAF=0.727), patient’s origin (VAF=0.584), antibiotic treatment (VAF=0.479), non-surgical treatment for acute coronary disease (VAF=0.375), type of admission (VAF=0.509), surgical intervention (VAF=0.419). In the second component, the variables with the greatest contribution were the SAPS II (VAF=0.660), age (VAF=0.583), type of admission (VAF=0.531), surgical intervention (VAF=0.522). Thus, the first component would represent the exposure to invasive devices and medical procedures, and the second component the severity of patients.

Conclusions

Our results proposed the usefulness of CATPCA to identify factors involved in the development of adverse outcomes, highlighting the role of exposure to invasive devices and severity of patients.

Key messages

• There are several relationships between patients clinical and personal characteristics.

• CATPCA represents a useful approach for the analytical exploitation of healthcare data.

Impact of Eating Context on Dietary Choices of College Students: Evidence from the HEALTHY-UNICT Project

While personal characteristics have been evaluated as determinants of dietary choices over the years, only recently studies have looked at the impact of eating context. Examining eating context, however, can be challenging. Here, we propose the use of a web-app for the Ecological Momentary Assessment of dietary habits among 138 college students from Catania (Italy) and therefore for examining the impact of eating context on dietary choices. Eating away from home was associated with lower odds of consuming vegetables, fruits, and legumes and higher odds of consuming processed meat, salty snacks, and alcoholic drinks compared with eating at home. Eating in the company of other people was associated with higher odds of consuming vegetables, red meat, fish, legumes, milk, and sugar-sweetened beverages and lower odds of consuming nuts than eating alone. This study proposed a new way to capture and assess how eating environment might affect dietary habits. Based on our results, meal location and social context have significant effects on the dietary choices of college students, pointing to the need to incorporate these aspects into further epidemiological studies.

European studies to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in HCWs: results from Italian hospitals

Background

Evaluating COVID-19 vaccine coverage and risk factors is useful to develop public health strategies against COVID-19 pandemic. In the framework of two studies commissioned by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and coordinated by Epiconcept, France, we reported findings about incidence and seroprevalence among healthcare workers (HCWs) enrolled from three Italian hospitals.

Methods

From July 2021 to date, the AOUP “G. Rodolico-San Marco” (Catania), the San Gerardo Hospital (Monza) and the Policlinico Gemelli (Rome) participated in the ECDC study to measure COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness. Catania and Rome also participated to the ECDC study of nosocomial transmission. HCWs were asked to complete a weekly questionnaire to report changes in health status and professional/personal exposures. At recruitment, a nasopharyngeal swab for RT-PCR and a blood sample for serology test were collected. Moreover, HCWs were followed-up with a weekly or bimonthly nasopharyngeal or saliva swabs. Blood samples were collected every one or two months.

Results

A total of 226 HCWs was enrolled from Catania, 330 from Rome and 132 from Monza in the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness study. As of February 2022, PCR tests performed were 2270 in Catania, 5475 in Rome and 891 in Monza sites. Moreover, the serological tests performed were 845 in Catania, 760 in Rome and 395 in Monza sites. A total of 6 SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified in Catania, 34 in Rome and 4 in Monza sites. Interestingly, the study of nosocomial transmission reported the highest incidence rate in Catania (4 per 10,000 person-day), while 0.7 per 10,000 person-day in Rome. During the study period seroprevalence declined by 17% among HWCs enrolled in Catania.

Conclusions

Our findings revealed low number of COVID-19 infections, with high COVID-19 vaccine coverage among HCWs. However, further analyses are needed to provide more robust estimates of vaccine effectiveness.

Key messages

Comparison of Quantitative Real-Time PCR and Digital PCR to Detect the Polyomavirus in Merkel Cell Carcinoma

Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCPyV) prevalence in Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) cases is controversial. The detection and quantification of MCPyV DNA is mainly performed by PCR techniques using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues. The aim of this study is to compare the performance of two different molecular techniques, specifically the quantitative Real-Time PCR (qPCR) and digital PCR (dPCR). Samples from 31 cases of MCC excisional surgical biopsies were analyzed. DNA extraction and purification from clinical samples were performed using the QIAcube Qiagen automated nucleic acid extractor. After the extraction, MCPyV was detected by qPCR and dPCR using specially designed primers and probes. Of the 31 MCC samples under study, the MCPyV genome was detected in 11 samples (35%) by qPCR compared with 20 samples (65%) detected by dPCR. Notably, 65% of primary tumors were positive for MCPyV (15/23). The viral genome was detected in 75% of tumors located at UV-exposed sites (6/8), 55% of tumors at partially UV-protected sites (5/9), and 67% of tumors at UV-protected sites (4/6). Our results showed a better sensitivity of dPCR in detecting the MCPyV genome in MCC samples compared with traditional qPCR techniques.

Comparison of RIPASA and ALVARADO scores for risk assessment of acute appendicitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

In the last decades, several clinical scores have been developed and currently used to improve the diagnosis and risk management of patients with suspected acute appendicitis (AA). However, some of them exhibited different values of sensitivity and specificity. We conducted a systematic review and metanalysis of epidemiological studies, which compared RIPASA and Alvarado scores for the diagnosis of AA.

Methods

This systematic review was conducted using PubMed and Web of Science databases. Selected studies had to compare RIPASA and Alvarado scores on patients with suspected AA and reported diagnostic parameters. Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated by the Hierarchical Summary Receiver Operating Curve (HSROC) using STATA 17 (STATA Corp, College Station, TX) and MetaDiSc (version 1.4) software.

Results

We included a total of 33 articles, reporting data from 35 studies. For the Alvarado score, the Hierarchical Summary Receiver Operating Curve (HSROC) model produced a summary sensitivity of 0.72 (95%CI = 0.66–0.77), and a summary specificity of 0.77 (95%CI = 0.70–0.82). For the RIPASA score, the HSROC model produced a summary sensitivity of 0.95 (95%CI = 0.92–0.97), and a summary specificity of 0.71 (95%CI = 0.60–0.80).

Conclusion

RIPASA score has higher sensitivity, but low specificity compared to Alvarado score. Since these scoring systems showed different sensitivity and specificity parameters, it is still necessary to develop novel scores for the risk assessment of patients with suspected AA.

HIV infection does not affect the risk of death of COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies

Background

Even during the current Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the infection with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) continues to pose a major threat, worldwide. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO) defined the HIV infection as a risk factor for both severe COVID-19, at hospital admission, and in-hospital mortality. Despite this evidence, however, there remains the need for investigating whether SARS-CoV-2 infection could increase the risk of death among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Thus, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection on the risk of death among PLHIV and HIV- seronegative people.

Methods

The literature search was carried out on PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases, from the inception to February 2022. Epidemiological studies on patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection, which compared the proportion of deaths between PLHIV and HIV-seronegative people, were considered eligible for the inclusion. The pooled odds ratio (OR) was obtained through meta-analysis of the comparison between PLHIV and HIV-seronegative people. Study quality was assessed by using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment.

Results

On a total of 1001 records obtained from the literature search, the present systematic review and meta-analysis included 28 studies on 168 531 PLHIV and 66 712 091 HIV-seronegative patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The meta-analysis showed no difference in the risk of death between PLHIV and HIV-seronegative patients (OR = 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.93-1.26; P > 0.001). However, a significant heterogeneity was found for this comparison (I² = 88.8%, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Although our meta-analysis suggests no difference in the risk of death of PLHIV with SARS-CoV-2 infection, if compared with HIV-seronegative patients, further research should be encouraged to improve the current knowledge about the impact of SARS-CoV-2 and HIV co-infection.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Dietary Patterns of Pregnant Women: A Comparison between Two Mother-Child Cohorts in Sicily, Italy

A maternal diet, before and during pregnancy, plays a key role in ensuring maternal and newborn health. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, may have compromised dietary habits in the general population and in specific subgroups of individuals. Here, we evaluated the impact of COVID-19 on the diet of pregnant women, using data from two mother-child cohorts in Sicily (Italy). Dietary data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire and analyzed through the Mediterranean diet (MD) score and principal component analysis (PCA). The comparison of maternal dietary consumption before and during the COVID-19 pandemic showed differences in terms of vegetables (p < 0.001), fruit (p < 0.001), dairy products (p < 0.001), fish (p < 0.001), and legumes (p = 0.001). Accordingly, after adjusting for covariates, mothers enrolled during the pandemic were more likely to report low adherence to MD than those enrolled before (OR = 1.65; 95%CI = 1.12−2.42; p = 0.011). A similar result was obtained by analyzing the adherence to a prudent dietary pattern, derived through PCA and characterized by high intake of cooked and row vegetables, legumes, fruit, fish, and soup. Overall, these findings suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic may have influenced maternal diet during pregnancy. However, further efforts are needed to investigate the main causes and consequences of this change.

Development and Validation of a Novel Pre-Pregnancy Score Predictive of Preterm Birth in Nulliparous Women Using Data from Italian Healthcare Utilization Databases

Background: Preterm birth is a major worldwide public health concern, being the leading cause of infant mortality. Understanding of risk factors remains limited, and early identification of women at high risk of preterm birth is an open challenge. Objective: The aim of the study was to develop and validate a novel pre-pregnancy score for preterm delivery in nulliparous women using information from Italian healthcare utilization databases. Study Design: Twenty-six variables independently able to predict preterm delivery were selected, using a LASSO logistic regression, from a large number of features collected in the 4 years prior to conception, related to clinical history and socio-demographic characteristics of 126,839 nulliparous women from Lombardy region who gave birth between 2012 and 2017. A weight proportional to the coefficient estimated by the model was assigned to each of the selected variables, which contributed to the Preterm Birth Score. Discrimination and calibration of the Preterm Birth Score were assessed using an internal validation set (i.e., other 54,359 deliveries from Lombardy) and two external validation sets (i.e., 14,703 and 62,131 deliveries from Marche and Sicily, respectively). Results: The occurrence of preterm delivery increased with increasing the Preterm Birth Score value in all regions in the study. Almost ideal calibration plots were obtained for the internal validation set and Marche, while expected and observed probabilities differed slightly in Sicily for high Preterm Birth Score values. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 60%, 61% and 56% for the internal validation set, Marche and Sicily, respectively. Conclusions: Despite the limited discriminatory power, the Preterm Birth Score is able to stratify women according to their risk of preterm birth, allowing the early identification of mothers who are more likely to have a preterm delivery.

Nutrient intakes and telomere length of cell-free circulating DNA from amniotic fluid: findings from the Mamma & Bambino cohort

Pregnancy represents a crucial period in which several exposures—and especially maternal diet—might shape children’s health. Thus, identifying how maternal dietary intakes early affect biological aging in children represents a public health mission. We aimed to assess the relationship between maternal intake of nutrients in early pregnancy and telomere length of cell-free circulating DNA (cfDNA) from amniotic fluid. We used data and samples from the ongoing prospective “Mamma & Bambino” study, which recruits mother–child pairs from Catania at the first prenatal visit. Maternal nutrient intakes were assessed using a Food Frequency Questionnaire, while relative telomere length of cfDNA was assessed by real-time polymerase chain reaction. Our analysis included 174 mother–child pairs. The intakes of iron, vitamin B1, and magnesium were positively correlated with relative telomere length (p-values < 0.05). However, only the intake of magnesium was positively associated with relative telomere length, after applying a linear regression model (β = 0.002; SE = 0.001; p = 0.024). Magnesium deficiency was negatively associated with relative telomere length after adjusting for the same covariates (β = −0.467; SE = 0.176; p = 0.009). To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of a positive relationship between maternal nutrient intake and telomere length of cfDNA. Further efforts are needed for deeply investigating the effect of maternal dietary intakes on telomere length, in order to develop effective public health strategies.

In-vitro NET-osis induced by COVID-19 sera is associated to severe clinical course in not vaccinated patients and immune-dysregulation in breakthrough infection

Since neutrophil extracellular traps formation (NET-osis) can be assessed indirectly by treating healthy neutrophils with blood-derived fluids from patients and then measuring the NETs response, we designed a pilot study to convey high-dimensional cytometry of peripheral blood immune cells and cytokines, combined with clinical features, to understand if NET-osis assessment could be included in the immune risk profiling to early prediction of clinical patterns, disease severity, and viral clearance at 28 days in COVID-19 patients. Immune cells composition of peripheral blood, cytokines concentration and in-vitro NETosis were detected in peripheral blood of 41 consecutive COVID-19 inpatients, including 21 mild breakthrough infections compared to 20 healthy donors, matched for sex and age. Major immune dysregulation in peripheral blood in not-vaccinated COVID-19 patients compared to healthy subjects included: a significant reduction of percentage of unswitched memory B-cells and transitional B-cells; loss of naïve CD3⁺CD4⁺CD45RA⁺ and CD3⁺CD8⁺CD45RA⁺ cells, increase of IL-1β, IL-17A and IFN-γ. Myeloid compartment was affected as well, due to the increase of classical (CD14⁺⁺CD16⁻) and intermediate (CD14⁺⁺CD16⁺) monocytes, overexpressing the activation marker CD64, negatively associated to the absolute counts of CD8+ CD45R0+ cells, IFN-γ and IL-6, and expansion of monocytic-like myeloid derived suppressor cells. In not-vaccinated patients who achieved viral clearance by 28 days we found at hospital admission lower absolute counts of effector cells, namely CD8⁺T cells, CD4⁺ T-cells and CD4⁺CD45RO⁺ T cells. Percentage of in-vitro NET-osis induced by patients’ sera and NET-osis density were progressively higher in moderate and severe COVID-19 patients than in mild disease and controls. The percentage of in-vitro induced NET-osis was positively associated to circulating cytokines IL-1β, IFN-γ and IL-6. In breakthrough COVID-19 infections, characterized by mild clinical course, we observed increased percentage of in-vitro NET-osis, higher CD4+ CD45RO+ and CD8+ CD45RO+ T cells healthy or mild-COVID-19 not-vaccinated patients, reduced by 24 h of treatment with ACE inhibitor ramipril. Taken together our data highlight the role of NETs in orchestrating the complex immune response to SARS-COV-2, that should be considered in a multi-target approach for COVID-19 treatment.