An approach to assessing subsea pipeline-associated mercury release into the North Sea and its potential environmental and human health impact

Mercury is a naturally occurring heavy metal that has also been associated with anthropogenic sources such as cement production or hydrocarbon extraction. Mercury is a contaminant of concern as it can have a significant negative impact on organismal health when ingested. In aquatic environments, it bioaccumulates up the foodweb, where it then has the potential to impact human health. With the offshore hydrocarbon platforms in the North Sea nearing decommissioning, they must be assessed as a potential source for the environmental release of mercury. International treaties govern the handling of materials placed in the ocean. Studies have assessed the ecologic and economic benefits of (partial) in situ abandonment of the infrastructure as artificial reefs. This can be applied to pipelines after substantial cleaning to remove mercury accumulation from the inner surface. This work outlines the application of an approach to modelling marine mercury bioaccumulation for decommissioning scenarios in the North Sea. Here, in situ decommissioning of cleaned pipelines was unlikely to have a negative impact on the North Sea food web or human health. However, significant knowledge gaps have been determined, which must be addressed before all negative impacts on ecosystems and organismal health can be excluded.

High resolution visualisation of tiemannite microparticles, essential in the detoxification process of mercury in marine mammals

The North Sea is an ecologically rich habitat for marine wildlife which has also been impacted by industrial developments and anthropogenic emissions of contaminants such as mercury. Marine mammals are particularly susceptible to mercury exposure, due to their trophic position, long lifespan, and dependence on (increasingly contaminated) aquatic prey species. To mitigate impact, marine mammals can detoxify methylmercury by binding it to selenium-containing biomolecules, creating insoluble mercury selenide granules. Here, liver, kidney, muscle, and brain samples from an adult male bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) with known elevated mercury concentrations were analysed through scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Tiemannite (HgSe) deposits were identified in all organs, ranging from 400 nm to 5 μm in diameter, with particle size being organ-dependent. Although reported in other studies, this is the first time that the three-dimensional nature of tiemannite is captured in marine mammal tissue.

Low risk management intervention: Limited impact of remedial tillage on net ecosystem carbon balance at a commercial Miscanthus plantation

Perennial bioenergy crops are a key tool in decarbonizing global energy systems, but to ensure the efficient use of land resources, it is essential that yields and crop longevity are maximized. Remedial shallow surface tillage is being explored in commercial Miscanthus plantations as an approach to reinvigorate older crops and to rectify poor establishment, improving yields. There are posited links, however, between tillage and losses in soil carbon (C) via increased ecosystem C fluxes to the atmosphere. As Miscanthus is utilized as an energy crop, changes in field C fluxes need to be assessed as part of the C balance of the crop. Here, for the first time, we quantify the C impacts of remedial tillage at a mature commercial Miscanthus plantation in Lincolnshire, United Kingdom. Net ecosystem C production based on eddy covariance flux observations and exported yield totalled 12.16 Mg C ha-1 over the 4.6 year period after tillage, showing the site functioned as a net sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). There was no indication of negative tillage induced impacts on soil C stocks, with no difference 3 years post tillage in the surface (0-30 cm) or deep (0-70 cm) soil C stocks between the tilled Miscanthus field and an adjacent paired untilled Miscanthus field. Comparison to historic samples showed surface soil C stocks increased by 11.16 ± 3.91 Mg C ha-1 between pre (October 2011) and post tillage sampling (November 2016). Within the period of the study, however, the tillage did not result in the increased yields necessary to "pay back" the tillage induced yield loss. Rather the crop was effectively re-established, with progressive yield increases over the study period, mirroring expectations of newly planted sites. The overall impacts of remedial tillage will depend therefore, on the longer-term impacts on crop longevity and yields.

Considerations for future quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modelling for heavy metals - A case study of mercury

With increasing annual chemical development and production, safety testing demands and requirements have also increased. In addition to traditional animal testing, quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modelling can be used to predict the biological effect of a chemical structure, based on the analysis of quantitative characteristics of structure features. Whilst suitable for e.g., pharmaceuticals, other compounds can be more challenging to model. The naturally occurring heavy metal mercury speciates in the environment, with some toxic species accumulating in aquatic organisms. Although this is well known, only little data is available from (eco)toxicological studies, none of which account for this speciation behaviour. The present work highlights the current toxicity data for mercury in aquatic animals and gaps in our understanding and data for future QSAR modelling. All publicly available ecotoxicology data was obtained from databases and literature. Only few studies could be determined that assessed mercury toxicity in aquatic species. Of these, likely speciation products were determined using PHREEQc. This highlighted that the mercury exposure species was not always the predominant species in the medium. Finally, the descriptors for the modelled species were obtained from ChemDes, highlighting the limited availability of such details. Additional testing is required, accounting for speciation and biological interactions, to successfully determine the toxicity profile of different mercury species in aquatic environments. In the present work, insufficient mercury-species specific data was obtained, to conduct QSAR modelling successfully. This highlights a significant lack of data, for a heavy metal with potentially fatal repercussions.

Modelling the impact of forest management and CO2-fertilisation on growth and demography in a Sitka spruce plantation

Afforestation and reforestation to meet 'Net Zero' emissions targets are considered a necessary policy by many countries. Their potential benefits are usually assessed through forest carbon and growth models. The implementation of vegetation demography gives scope to represent forest management and other size-dependent processes within land surface models (LSMs). In this paper, we evaluate the impact of including management within an LSM that represents demography, using both in-situ and reanalysis climate drivers at a mature, upland Sitka spruce plantation in Northumberland, UK. We compare historical simulations with fixed and variable CO2 concentrations, and with and without tree thinning implemented. Simulations are evaluated against the observed vegetation structure and carbon fluxes. Including thinning and the impact of increasing CO2 concentration ('CO2 fertilisation') gave more realistic estimates of stand-structure and physical characteristics. Historical CO2 fertilisation had a noticeable effect on the Gross Primary Productivity seasonal-diurnal cycle and contributed to approximately 7% higher stand biomass by 2018. The net effect of both processes resulted in a decrease of tree density and biomass, but an increase in tree height and leaf area index.

An approach to assess potential environmental mercury release, food web bioaccumulation, and human dietary methylmercury uptake from decommissioning offshore oil and gas infrastructure

Subsea pipelines carrying well fluids from hydrocarbon fields accumulate mercury. If the pipelines (after cleaning and flushing) are abandoned in situ, their degradation may release residual mercury into the environment. To justify pipeline abandonment, decommissioning plans include environmental risk assessments to determine the potential risk of environmental mercury. These risks are informed by environmental quality guideline values (EQGVs) governing concentrations in sediment or water above which mercury toxicity may occur. However, these guidelines may not consider e.g., the bioaccumulation potential of methylated mercury. Therefore, EQGVs may not protect humans from exposure if applied as the sole basis for risk assessments. This paper outlines a process to assess the EQGVs' protectiveness from mercury bioaccumulation, providing preliminary insights to questions including how to (1) determine pipeline threshold concentrations, (2) model marine mercury bioaccumulation, and (3) determine exceedance of the methylmercury tolerable weekly intake (TWI) for humans. The approach is demonstrated with a generic example using simplifications to describe mercury behaviour and a model food web. In this example, release scenarios equivalent to the EQGVs resulted in increased marine organism mercury tissue concentrations by 0-33 %, with human dietary methylmercury intake increasing 0-21 %. This suggests that existing guidelines may not be protective of biomagnification in all circumstances. The outlined approach could inform environmental risk assessments for asset-specific release scenarios but must be parameterised to reflect local environmental conditions when tailored to local factors.

Perennial biomass cropping and use: Shaping the policy ecosystem in European countries

Demand for sustainably produced biomass is expected to increase with the need to provide renewable commodities, improve resource security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with COP26 commitments. Studies have demonstrated additional environmental benefits of using perennial biomass crops (PBCs), when produced appropriately, as a feedstock for the growing bioeconomy, including utilisation for bioenergy (with or without carbon capture and storage). PBCs can potentially contribute to Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) (2023-27) objectives provided they are carefully integrated into farming systems and landscapes. Despite significant research and development (R&D) investment over decades in herbaceous and coppiced woody PBCs, deployment has largely stagnated due to social, economic and policy uncertainties. This paper identifies the challenges in creating policies that are acceptable to all actors. Development will need to be informed by measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of greenhouse gas emissions reductions and other environmental, economic and social metrics. It discusses interlinked issues that must be considered in the expansion of PBC production: (i) available land; (ii) yield potential; (iii) integration into farming systems; (iv) R&D requirements; (v) utilisation options; and (vi) market systems and the socio-economic environment. It makes policy recommendations that would enable greater PBC deployment: (1) incentivise farmers and land managers through specific policy measures, including carbon pricing, to allocate their less productive and less profitable land for uses which deliver demonstrable greenhouse gas reductions; (2) enable greenhouse gas mitigation markets to develop and offer secure contracts for commercial developers of verifiable low-carbon bioenergy and bioproducts; (3) support innovation in biomass utilisation value chains; and (4) continue long-term, strategic R&D and education for positive environmental, economic and social sustainability impacts.

Novel Miscanthus hybrids: Modelling productivity on marginal land in Europe using dynamics of canopy development determined by light interception

New biomass crop hybrids for bioeconomic expansion require yield projections to determine their potential for strategic land use planning in the face of global challenges. Our biomass growth simulation incorporates radiation interception and conversion efficiency. Models often use leaf area to predict interception which is demanding to determine accurately, so instead we use low-cost rapid light interception measurements using a simple laboratory-made line ceptometer and relate the dynamics of canopy closure to thermal time, and to measurements of biomass. We apply the model to project the European biomass potentials of new market-ready hybrids for 2020-2030. Field measurements are easier to collect, the calibration is seasonally dynamic and reduces influence of weather variation between field sites. The model obtained is conservative, being calibrated by crops of varying establishment and varying maturity on less productive (marginal) land. This results in conservative projections of miscanthus hybrids for 2020-2030 based on 10% land use conversion of the least (productive) grassland and arable for farm diversification, which show a European potential of 80.7-89.7 Mt year-1 biomass, with potential for 1.2-1.3 EJ year-1 energy and 36.3-40.3 Mt year-1 carbon capture, with seeded Miscanthus sacchariflorus × sinensis displaying highest yield potential. Simulated biomass projections must be viewed in light of the field measurements on less productive land with high soil water deficits. We are attempting to model the results from an ambitious and novel project combining new hybrids across Europe with agronomy which has not been perfected on less productive sites. Nevertheless, at the time of energy sourcing issues, seed-propagated miscanthus hybrids for the upscaled provision of bioenergy offer an alternative source of renewable energy. If European countries provide incentives for growers to invest, seeded hybrids can improve product availability and biomass yields over the current commercial miscanthus variety.

Threshold values for the protection of marine ecosystems from NORM in subsea oil and gas infrastructure

This modelling study uses the ERICA Tool and Bateman's equation to derive sediment threshold values for radiation protection of the marine environment relevant to NORM-contaminated products (radium-contaminated scales, ²¹⁰Pb films and ²¹⁰Po films) found in subsea oil and gas infrastructure. Threshold values are calculated as the activity concentration of the NORM-contaminated products' head of chain radionuclide (i.e., ²²⁶Ra + ²²⁸Ra, ²¹⁰Pb, or ²¹⁰Po) that will increase radiation dose rates in sediments by 10 μGy/h to the most exposed organism at a given release time. The minimum threshold value (corresponding to peak radiation dose rates from the ingrowth of progeny) were for radium-contaminated scales, 0.009 Bq/g of ²²⁶Ra, 0.029 Bq/g of ²²⁸Ra (in the absence of ²²⁶Ra) or 0.14 Bq/g of ²²⁸Ra (in the presence of ²²⁶Ra), followed by 0.015 Bq/g for ²¹⁰Pb films, and 1.6 Bq/g for ²¹⁰Po films. These may be used as default threshold values. Added activity concentrations of the NORM-contaminated products to marine sediments below these threshold values implies a low radiological risk to organisms while exceedances imply that further investigation is necessary. Using contaminated product specific parameterisations, such as K_d values derived for Ra from a BaSO₄ matrix in seawater, could greatly affect threshold values. Strong consideration should be given to deriving such data as part of specific radiological risk assessments for these products.

The development of a new crop growth model SwitchFor for yield mapping of switchgrass

Switchgrass is a promising energy crop has the potential to mitigate global warming and energy security, improve local ecology and generate profit. Its quantitative traits, such as biomass productivity and environmental adaptability, are determined by genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) or response of genotypes grown across different target environments. To simulate the yield of switchgrass outside its original habitat, a genotype-specific growth model, SwitchFor that captures GEI was developed by parameterising the MiscanFor model. Input parameters were used to describe genotype-specific characteristics under different soil and climate conditions, which enables the model to predict the yield in a wide range of environmental and climate conditions. The model was validated using global field trail data and applied to estimate the switchgrass yield potentials on the marginal land of the Loess Plateau in China. The results suggest that upland and lowland switchgrass have significant differences in the spatial distribution of the adaptation zone and site-specific biomass yield. The area of the adaption zone of upland switchgrass was 4.5 times of the lowland ecotype's. The yield difference between upland and lowland ecotypes ranges from 0 to 34 Mg ha^-1. The weighted average yield of the lowland ecotype (20 Mg ha^-1) is significantly higher than the upland type (5 Mg ha^-1). The optimal yield map, generated by comparing the yield of upland and lowland ecotypes based on 1 km² grid locations, illustrates that the total yield potential of the optimal switchgrass is 61.6-106.4 Tg on the marginal land of the Loess Plateau, which is approximately twice that of the individual ecotypes. Compared with the existing models, the accuracy of the yield prediction of switchgrass is significantly improved by using the SwitchFor model. This spatially explicit and cultivar-specific model provides valuable information on land management and crop breeding and a robust and extendable framework for yield mapping of other cultivars.

Expanding the Miscanthus market in the UK: Growers in profile and experience, benefits and drawbacks of the bioenergy crop

To achieve net zero greenhouse gas emission by 2050 as set out by the 2019 amendment to the 2008 UK Climate Change Act, a major shift towards renewable energy is needed. This includes the development of new methods along with improving and upscaling existing technologies. One example of new methods in bioenergy is developing new Miscanthus cultivars for electricity generation via thermal power station furnaces. Miscanthus is still relatively new compared with other agriculture practices, so market assessments and improvements are needed to reduce the barriers to entry for prospective growers. This publication provides a profile of UK Miscanthus growers and their businesses, their experiences of benefits and drawbacks of the crop, and what they see as potential barriers to entry for prospective farmers. A survey of current Miscanthus growers in England and Wales was conducted and indicated that most farmers were content with the crop and that its environmental and economic benefits were noted. However, it was evident that with a geographically limited UK market, growers wanted to see a better distribution of biomass processing stations to reduce the ongoing costs of transport. With growing demand for renewables, including bio-energy sources, it was determined important to provide information and support for stable farming operations and to incentivise the adoption of Miscanthus. Such incentives include ongoing development of new cultivars, focussing on traits such as production potential and stressor resilience, and growers indicated preference for an annual planting grant. These developments are predicted to further improve the crop's profit margin, making it a more cost-effective crop for farmers. Sensitively managed Miscanthus also has the potential to contribute to carbon sequestration, soil health, and aspects of farmland biodiversity. Incentivising such management in government land-based environmental schemes would offer additional income streams and help to promote environmental positive crop planting.

Current understanding of the ecological risk of mercury from subsea oil and gas infrastructure to marine ecosystems

Many oil and gas fields are nearing production cessation and will require decommissioning, with the preferred method being complete infrastructure removal in most jurisdictions. However, decommissioning in situ, leaving some disused components in place, is an option that may be agreed to by the regulators and reservoir titleholders in some circumstances. To understand this option's viability, the environmental impacts and risks of any residual contaminants assessed. Mercury, a contaminant of concern, is naturally present in hydrocarbon reservoirs, may contaminate offshore processing and transmission infrastructure, and can biomagnify in marine ecosystems. Mercury's impact is dependent on its speciation, concentration, and the exposure duration. However, research characterising and quantifying the amount of mercury in offshore infrastructure and the efficacy of decontamination is limited. This review describes the formation of mercury-contaminated products within oil and gas infrastructure, expected exposure pathways after environmental release, possible impacts, and key research gaps regarding the ecological risk of in situ decommissioned contaminated infrastructure. Suggestions are made to overcome these gaps, improving the in situ mercury quantification in infrastructure, understanding environmental controls on, and forecasting of, mercury methylation and bioaccumulation, and the cumulative impacts of multiple stressors within decommissioned infrastructures.

Current understanding and research needs for ecological risk assessments of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) in subsea oil and gas pipelines

Thousands of offshore oil and gas facilities are coming to the end of their life in jurisdictions worldwide and will require decommissioning. In-situ decommissioning, where the subsea components of that infrastructure are left in the marine environment following the end of its productive life, has been proposed as an option that delivers net benefits, including from: ecological benefits from the establishment of artificial reefs, economic benefits from associated fisheries, reduced costs and improved human safety outcomes for operators. However, potential negative impacts, such as the ecological risk of residual contaminants, are not well understood. Naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) are a class of contaminants found in some oil and gas infrastructure (e.g. pipelines) and includes radionuclides of uranium, thorium, radium, radon, lead, and polonium. NORM are ubiquitous in oil and gas reservoirs around the world and may form contamination products including scales and sludges in subsea infrastructure due to their chemistries and the physical processes of oil and gas extraction. The risk that NORM from these sources pose to marine ecosystems is not yet understood meaning that decisions made about decommissioning may not deliver the best outcomes for environments. In this review, we consider the life of NORM-contamination products in oil and gas systems, their expected exposure pathways in the marine environment, and possible ecological impacts following release. These are accompanied by the key research priorities that need to better describe risk associated with decommissioning options.

A systematic analysis and review of the impacts of afforestation on soil quality indicators as modified by climate zone, forest type and age

This global systematic analysis and review investigate the impacts of previous land use system, climate zone, forest type and forest age on soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) stock, soil bulk density (BD) and pH at soil layers 0-20, 20-60 and 60-100 cm, following afforestation. Data came from 91 publications on SOC, TN and TP stock changes, covering different countries and climate zones. Overall, afforestation significantly increased SOC by 46%, 52% and 20% at 0-20, 20-60 and 60-100 cm depths, respectively. It also significantly increased shallower TN stocks by 28% and 22% at 0-20 and 20-60 cm depths, respectively, but had no overall impacts on TP. Previous land use system had the largest influence on SOC, TN and TP stock changes, with greater accumulations on barren land compared to cropland and grassland. Climate zone influenced SOC, TN and TP stock changes, with greater accumulations for moist cool than other climate zones. Broadleaf forests were better than coniferous forests for increasing SOC, TN and TP stocks of the investigated soil profile (0-100 cm). Afforestation for <20 years accumulated SOC and TN stocks only at the soil surface (0-20 cm), whilst afforestation for >20 years accumulated SOC and TN stocks to 100 cm soil depth. Changes to SOC and TN were positively correlated at depths down to 100 cm under all age groups, demonstrating that an increase TN could offset progressive N limitation, and maintains SOC accumulation as forests age. TP stock decreased significantly in topsoil (0-20 cm) for <20-year-old forest and did not change for >20-year-old forest, suggesting that it may become a limiting factor for carbon sequestration as forests age. Following afforestation, soil BD decreased alongside significant increases in SOC and TN stocks to 100 cm depth, but had no relationship with TP.

Spatiotemporal assessment of farm-gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China

Spatially explicit farm-gate production costs and the economic potential of three types of energy crops grown on available marginal land in China for 2017 and 2040 were investigated using a spatial accounting method and construction of cost-supply curves. The average farm-gate cost from all available marginal land was calculated as 32.9 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 27.5 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 32.4 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 909 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. The costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass were predicted to decrease by approximately 11%-15%, whereas the cost of Jatropha was expected to increase by 5% in 2040. The cost of Jatropha varies significantly from 193 to 9,477 CNY/GJ across regions because of the huge differences in yield across regions. The economic potential of the marginal land was calculated as 28.7 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 4.0 EJ/year at a cost of less than 30 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 29.6 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 0.1 EJ/year at a cost of less than 500 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. It is not feasible to develop Jatropha production on marginal land based on existing technologies, given its high production costs. Therefore, the Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode is the most economical way, because it achieves the highest economic potential compared with other modes. The sensitivity analysis showed that the farm-gate costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass are most sensitive to uncertainties associated with yield reduction and harvesting costs, while, for Jatropha, the unpredictable yield has the greatest impact on its farm-gate cost. This study can help policymakers and industrial stakeholders make strategic and tactical bioenergy development plans in China (exchange rate in 2017: 1€ = 7.63￥; all the joules in this paper are higher heat value).

Collecting wild Miscanthus germplasm in Asia for crop improvement and conservation in Europe whilst adhering to the guidelines of the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Germplasm with diverse, agronomically relevant traits forms the foundation of a successful plant breeding programme. Since 1993, the United Nations has been advocating the implementation of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the subsequent 2002 Bonn Guidelines as international best practice on germplasm collection and use. In 2006, a European team made an expedition to Asia to collect wild germplasm of Miscanthus, a C4 perennial rhizomatous grass, for breeding an environmentally adaptable, resilient and high-yielding bioenergy crop. We outline general aspects of germplasm collection, conservation, breeding and biomass production evaluation while following the CBD's guidelines, respecting biodiversity and conservation needs, and the ethical use of genetic resources.

METHODS

Effective protocols, quarantine, methods for collecting seed and rhizomes, and a genebank for conservation were established. Versatile informatics and database architecture were used to assist in selection, flowering synchronization, crossing, evaluation, phenotyping and data integration. Approaches were formulated to comply with the CBD guidelines.

KEY RESULTS

A total of 303 accessions of M. sinensis, M. sacchariflorus and M. floridulus were collected from 158 geographically and environmentally diverse locations. These species were shown to accumulate different amounts of aerial biomass due to combinations of stem count, height and thickness. Progeny from one interspecies cross accumulated more biomass in early trials and has shown double the yield performance in years 3-4 compared with the existing commercial cultivar M. × giganteus. An example of an F1 hybrid has already demonstrated the long-term potential of exploiting this collection for a breeding programme.

CONCLUSIONS

By conforming to the CBD principles, the authors' international collaboration provides a practical example of implementing the CBD. The collection widened the genetic diversity of Miscanthus available to allow for breeding of novel hybrids that exhibit more diverse traits to increase yield and resilience for growth on marginal land and in climate-challenged environments.

Metrics of biomass, live-weight gain and nitrogen loss of ryegrass sheep pasture in the 21st century

This study argues that several metrics are necessary to build up a picture of yield gain and nitrogen losses for ryegrass sheep pastures. Metrics of resource use efficiency, nitrous oxide emission factor, leached and emitted nitrogen per unit product are used to encompass yield gain and losses relating to nitrogen. These metrics are calculated from field system simulations using the DAYCENT model, validated from field sensor measurements and observations relating to crop yield, fertilizer applied, ammonium in soil and nitrate in soil and water, nitrous oxide and soil moisture. Three ryegrass pastures with traditional management for sheep grazing and silage are studied. As expected, the metrics between long-term ryegrass swards in this study are not very dissimilar. Slight differences between simulations of different field systems likely result from varying soil bulk density, as revealed by a sensitivity analysis applied to DAYCENT. The field with the highest resource use efficiency was also the field with the lowest leached inorganic nitrogen per unit product, and vice versa. Field system simulation using climate projections indicates an increase in nitrogen loss to water and air, with a corresponding increase in biomass. If we simulate both nitrogen loss by leaching and by gaseous emission, we obtain a fuller picture. Under climate projections, the field with the lowest determined nitrous oxide emissions factor, had a relatively high leached nitrogen per product amongst the three fields. When management differences were investigated, the amount of nitrous oxide per unit biomass was found to be significantly higher for an annual management of grazing only, than a silage harvest plus grazing, likely relating to the increased period of livestock on pasture. This work emphasizes how several metrics validated by auto-sampled data provide a measure of nitrogen loss, efficiency and best management practise.

A critical review of the impacts of cover crops on nitrogen leaching, net greenhouse gas balance and crop productivity

Cover crops play an increasingly important role in improving soil quality, reducing agricultural inputs and improving environmental sustainability. The main objectives of this critical global review and systematic analysis were to assess cover crop practices in the context of their impacts on nitrogen leaching, net greenhouse gas balances (NGHGB) and crop productivity. Only studies that investigated the impacts of cover crops and measured one or a combination of nitrogen leaching, soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrous oxide (N₂ O), grain yield and nitrogen in grain of primary crop, and had a control treatment were included in the analysis. Long-term studies were uncommon, with most data coming from studies lasting 2-3 years. The literature search resulted in 106 studies carried out at 372 sites and covering different countries, climatic zones and management. Our analysis demonstrates that cover crops significantly (p < 0.001) decreased N leaching and significantly (p < 0.001) increased SOC sequestration without having significant (p > 0.05) effects on direct N₂ O emissions. Cover crops could mitigate the NGHGB by 2.06 ± 2.10 Mg CO₂ -eq ha^-1  year^-1 . One of the potential disadvantages of cover crops identified was the reduction in grain yield of the primary crop by ≈4%, compared to the control treatment. This drawback could be avoided by selecting mixed cover crops with a range of legumes and non-legumes, which increased the yield by ≈13%. These advantages of cover crops justify their widespread adoption. However, management practices in relation to cover crops will need to be adapted to specific soil, management and regional climatic conditions.

Estimating greenhouse gases emissions from horticultural peat soils using a DNDC modelling approach

Peat soils represent an important global carbon (C) sink, but can also provide a highly fertile medium for growing horticultural crops. Sustainable crop production on peat soils involves a trade-off between ensuring food security and mitigating typically high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rates of soil C loss. An alternative approach to resource intensive field-based monitoring of GHG fluxes for all potential management scenarios is to use a process-based model driven by existing field data to estimate emissions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the suitability of the Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model for estimating emissions of CO₂, N₂O and CH₄ from horticultural peat soils. The model was parameterised using climatic, soil, and crop management data from two intensively cultivated sites on soils of contrasting soil organic matter (SOM) contents (∼35% and ∼70% SOM content). Simulated emissions of CO₂, N₂O and CH₄, and simulated soil physical and crop output values, were compared to actual GHG, soil and crop measurements. Model performance was assessed using baseline parameterisation (i.e. model defaults), then calibrated using pre-simulation and sensitivity analysis processes. Under baseline parameterisation conditions, DNDC proved poor at predicting GHG emissions and soil/crop variables. Calibration and validation improved DNDC performance in estimating the annual magnitude of emissions, but model refinement is still required for reproducing seasonal GHG patterns in particular. Key constraints on model functioning appear to be its ability to reliably model soil moisture and some aspects of C and nitrogen dynamics, as well as the quality of input data relating to water table dynamics. In conclusion, our results suggest that the DNDC (v. 9.5) model cannot accurately reproduce or be used to replace actual field measurements for estimation of GHG emission factors under different management scenarios for horticultural peat soils, but may be able to do so with further modification.

Breeding progress and preparedness for mass-scale deployment of perennial lignocellulosic biomass crops switchgrass, miscanthus, willow and poplar

Genetic improvement through breeding is one of the key approaches to increasing biomass supply. This paper documents the breeding progress to date for four perennial biomass crops (PBCs) that have high output-input energy ratios: namely Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), species of the genera Miscanthus (miscanthus), Salix (willow) and Populus (poplar). For each crop, we report on the size of germplasm collections, the efforts to date to phenotype and genotype, the diversity available for breeding and on the scale of breeding work as indicated by number of attempted crosses. We also report on the development of faster and more precise breeding using molecular breeding techniques. Poplar is the model tree for genetic studies and is furthest ahead in terms of biological knowledge and genetic resources. Linkage maps, transgenesis and genome editing methods are now being used in commercially focused poplar breeding. These are in development in switchgrass, miscanthus and willow generating large genetic and phenotypic data sets requiring concomitant efforts in informatics to create summaries that can be accessed and used by practical breeders. Cultivars of switchgrass and miscanthus can be seed-based synthetic populations, semihybrids or clones. Willow and poplar cultivars are commercially deployed as clones. At local and regional level, the most advanced cultivars in each crop are at technology readiness levels which could be scaled to planting rates of thousands of hectares per year in about 5 years with existing commercial developers. Investment in further development of better cultivars is subject to current market failure and the long breeding cycles. We conclude that sustained public investment in breeding plays a key role in delivering future mass-scale deployment of PBCs.

Critical review of the impacts of grazing intensity on soil organic carbon storage and other soil quality indicators in extensively managed grasslands

Livestock grazing intensity (GI) is thought to have a major impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and soil quality indicators in grassland agroecosystems. To critically investigate this, we conducted a global review and meta-analysis of 83 studies of extensive grazing, covering 164 sites across different countries and climatic zones. Unlike previous published reviews we normalized the SOC and total nitrogen (TN) data to a 30 cm depth to be compatible with IPCC guidelines. We also calculated a normalized GI and divided the data into four main groups depending on the regional climate (dry warm, DW; dry cool, DC; moist warm, MW; moist cool, MC). Our results show that taken across all climatic zones and GIs, grazing (below the carrying capacity of the systems) results in a decrease in SOC storage, although its impact on SOC is climate-dependent. When assessed for different regional climates, all GI levels increased SOC stocks under the MW climate (+7.6%) whilst there were reductions under the MC climate (-19%). Under the DW and DC climates, only the low (+5.8%) and low to medium (+16.1%) grazing intensities, respectively, were associated with increased SOC stocks. High GI significantly increased SOC for C4-dominated grassland compared to C3-dominated grassland and C3-C4 mixed grasslands. It was also associated with significant increases in TN and bulk density but had no effect on soil pH. To protect grassland soils from degradation, we recommend that GI and management practices should be optimized according to climate region and grassland type (C3, C4 or C3-C4 mixed).

Economic and Environmental Assessment of Seed and Rhizome Propagated Miscanthus in the UK

Growth in planted areas of Miscanthus for biomass in Europe has stagnated since 2010 due to technical challenges, economic barriers and environmental concerns. These limitations need to be overcome before biomass production from Miscanthus can expand to several million hectares. In this paper, we consider the economic and environmental effects of introducing seed based hybrids as an alternative to clonal M. x giganteus (Mxg). The impact of seed based propagation and novel agronomy was compared with current Mxg cultivation and used in 10 commercially relevant, field scale experiments planted between 2012 and 2014 in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Ukraine. Economic and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions costs were quantified for the following production chain: propagation, establishment, harvest, transportation, storage, and fuel preparation (excluding soil carbon changes). The production and utilization efficiency of seed and rhizome propagation were compared. Results show that new hybrid seed propagation significantly reduces establishment cost to below £900 ha-1. Calculated GHG emission costs for the seeds established via plugs, though relatively small, was higher than rhizomes because fossil fuels were assumed to heat glasshouses for raising seedling plugs (5.3 and 1.5 kg CO2 eq. C Mg [dry matter (DM)]-1), respectively. Plastic mulch film reduced establishment time, improving crop economics. The breakeven yield was calculated to be 6 Mg DM ha-1 y-1, which is about half average United Kingdom yield for Mxg; with newer seeded hybrids reaching 16 Mg DM ha-1 in second year United Kingdom trials. These combined improvements will significantly increase crop profitability. The trade-offs between costs of production for the preparation of different feedstock formats show that bales are the best option for direct firing with the lowest transport costs (£0.04 Mg-1 km-1) and easy on-farm storage. However, if pelleted fuel is required then chip harvesting is more economic. We show how current seed based propagation methods can increase the rate at which Miscanthus can be scaled up; ∼×100 those of current rhizome propagation. These rapid ramp rates for biomass production are required to deliver a scalable and economic Miscanthus biomass fuel whose GHG emissions are ∼1/20th those of natural gas per unit of heat.

Environmental costs and benefits of growing Miscanthus for bioenergy in the UK

Planting the perennial biomass crop Miscanthus in the UK could offset 2-13 Mt oil eq. yr-1, contributing up to 10% of current energy use. Policymakers need assurance that upscaling Miscanthus production can be performed sustainably without negatively impacting essential food production or the wider environment. This study reviews a large body of Miscanthus relevant literature into concise summary statements. Perennial Miscanthus has energy output/input ratios 10 times higher (47.3 ± 2.2) than annual crops used for energy (4.7 ± 0.2 to 5.5 ± 0.2), and the total carbon cost of energy production (1.12 g CO2-C eq. MJ-1) is 20-30 times lower than fossil fuels. Planting on former arable land generally increases soil organic carbon (SOC) with Miscanthus sequestering 0.7-2.2 Mg C4-C ha-1 yr-1. Cultivation on grassland can cause a disturbance loss of SOC which is likely to be recovered during the lifetime of the crop and is potentially mitigated by fossil fuel offset. N2O emissions can be five times lower under unfertilized Miscanthus than annual crops and up to 100 times lower than intensive pasture. Nitrogen fertilizer is generally unnecessary except in low fertility soils. Herbicide is essential during the establishment years after which natural weed suppression by shading is sufficient. Pesticides are unnecessary. Water-use efficiency is high (e.g. 5.5-9.2 g aerial DM (kg H2O)-1, but high biomass productivity means increased water demand compared to cereal crops. The perennial nature and belowground biomass improves soil structure, increases water-holding capacity (up by 100-150 mm), and reduces run-off and erosion. Overwinter ripening increases landscape structural resources for wildlife. Reduced management intensity promotes earthworm diversity and abundance although poor litter palatability may reduce individual biomass. Chemical leaching into field boundaries is lower than comparable agriculture, improving soil and water habitat quality.

Novel Miscanthus Germplasm-Based Value Chains: A Life Cycle Assessment

In recent years, considerable progress has been made in miscanthus research: improvement of management practices, breeding of new genotypes, especially for marginal conditions, and development of novel utilization options. The purpose of the current study was a holistic analysis of the environmental performance of such novel miscanthus-based value chains. In addition, the relevance of the analyzed environmental impact categories was assessed. A Life Cycle Assessment was conducted to analyse the environmental performance of the miscanthus-based value chains in 18 impact categories. In order to include the substitution of a reference product, a system expansion approach was used. In addition, a normalization step was applied. This allowed the relevance of these impact categories to be evaluated for each utilization pathway. The miscanthus was cultivated on six sites in Europe (Aberystwyth, Adana, Moscow, Potash, Stuttgart and Wageningen) and the biomass was utilized in the following six pathways: (1) small-scale combustion (heat)-chips; (2) small-scale combustion (heat)-pellets; (3) large-scale combustion (CHP)-biomass baled for transport and storage; (4) large-scale combustion (CHP)-pellets; (5) medium-scale biogas plant-ensiled miscanthus biomass; and (6) large-scale production of insulation material. Thus, in total, the environmental performance of 36 site × pathway combinations was assessed. The comparatively high normalized results of human toxicity, marine, and freshwater ecotoxicity, and freshwater eutrophication indicate the relevance of these impact categories in the assessment of miscanthus-based value chains. Differences between the six sites can almost entirely be attributed to variations in biomass yield. However, the environmental performance of the utilization pathways analyzed varied widely. The largest differences were shown for freshwater and marine ecotoxicity, and freshwater eutrophication. The production of insulation material had the lowest impact on the environment, with net benefits in all impact categories expect three (marine eutrophication, human toxicity, agricultural land occupation). This performance can be explained by the multiple use of the biomass, first as material and subsequently as an energy carrier, and by the substitution of an emission-intensive reference product. The results of this study emphasize the importance of assessing all environmental impacts when selecting appropriate utilization pathways.

Emissions of methane from northern peatlands: a review of management impacts and implications for future management options

Northern peatlands constitute a significant source of atmospheric methane (CH₄). However, management of undisturbed peatlands, as well as the restoration of disturbed peatlands, will alter the exchange of CH₄ with the atmosphere. The aim of this systematic review and meta‐analysis was to collate and analyze published studies to improve our understanding of the factors that control CH₄ emissions and the impacts of management on the gas flux from northern (latitude 40° to 70°N) peatlands. The analysis includes a total of 87 studies reporting measurements of CH₄ emissions taken at 186 sites covering different countries, peatland types, and management systems. Results show that CH₄ emissions from natural northern peatlands are highly variable with a 95% CI of 7.6–15.7 g C m⁻² year⁻¹ for the mean and 3.3–6.3 g C m⁻² year⁻¹ for the median. The overall annual average (mean ± SD) is 12 ± 21 g C m⁻² year⁻¹ with the highest emissions from fen ecosystems. Methane emissions from natural peatlands are mainly controlled by water table (WT) depth, plant community composition, and soil pH. Although mean annual air temperature is not a good predictor of CH₄ emissions by itself, the interaction between temperature, plant community cover, WT depth, and soil pH is important. According to short‐term forecasts of climate change, these complex interactions will be the main determinant of CH₄ emissions from northern peatlands. Drainage significantly (p < .05) reduces CH₄ emissions to the atmosphere, on average by 84%. Restoration of drained peatlands by rewetting or vegetation/rewetting increases CH₄ emissions on average by 46% compared to the original premanagement CH₄ fluxes. However, to fully evaluate the net effect of management practice on the greenhouse gas balance from high latitude peatlands, both net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and carbon exports need to be considered.

Potential impacts on ecosystem services of land use transitions to second-generation bioenergy crops in GB

We present the first assessment of the impact of land use change (LUC) to second-generation (2G) bioenergy crops on ecosystem services (ES) resolved spatially for Great Britain (GB). A systematic approach was used to assess available evidence on the impacts of LUC from arable, semi-improved grassland or woodland/forest, to 2G bioenergy crops, for which a quantitative 'threat matrix' was developed. The threat matrix was used to estimate potential impacts of transitions to either Miscanthus, short-rotation coppice (SRC, willow and poplar) or short-rotation forestry (SRF). The ES effects were found to be largely dependent on previous land uses rather than the choice of 2G crop when assessing the technical potential of available biomass with a transition from arable crops resulting in the most positive effect on ES. Combining these data with constraint masks and available land for SRC and Miscanthus (SRF omitted from this stage due to lack of data), south-west and north-west England were identified as areas where Miscanthus and SRC could be grown, respectively, with favourable combinations of economic viability, carbon sequestration, high yield and positive ES benefits. This study also suggests that not all prospective planting of Miscanthus and SRC can be allocated to agricultural land class (ALC) ALC 3 and ALC 4 and suitable areas of ALC 5 are only minimally available. Beneficial impacts were found on 146 583 and 71 890 ha when planting Miscanthus or SRC, respectively, under baseline planting conditions rising to 293 247 and 91 318 ha, respectively, under 2020 planting scenarios. The results provide an insight into the interplay between land availability, original land uses, bioenergy crop type and yield in determining overall positive or negative impacts of bioenergy cropping on ecosystems services and go some way towards developing a framework for quantifying wider ES impacts of this important LUC.

Progress on Optimizing Miscanthus Biomass Production for the European Bioeconomy: Results of the EU FP7 Project OPTIMISC

This paper describes the complete findings of the EU-funded research project OPTIMISC, which investigated methods to optimize the production and use of miscanthus biomass. Miscanthus bioenergy and bioproduct chains were investigated by trialing 15 diverse germplasm types in a range of climatic and soil environments across central Europe, Ukraine, Russia, and China. The abiotic stress tolerances of a wider panel of 100 germplasm types to drought, salinity, and low temperatures were measured in the laboratory and a field trial in Belgium. A small selection of germplasm types was evaluated for performance in grasslands on marginal sites in Germany and the UK. The growth traits underlying biomass yield and quality were measured to improve regional estimates of feedstock availability. Several potential high-value bioproducts were identified. The combined results provide recommendations to policymakers, growers and industry. The major technical advances in miscanthus production achieved by OPTIMISC include: (1) demonstration that novel hybrids can out-yield the standard commercially grown genotype Miscanthus x giganteus; (2) characterization of the interactions of physiological growth responses with environmental variation within and between sites; (3) quantification of biomass-quality-relevant traits; (4) abiotic stress tolerances of miscanthus genotypes; (5) selections suitable for production on marginal land; (6) field establishment methods for seeds using plugs; (7) evaluation of harvesting methods; and (8) quantification of energy used in densification (pellet) technologies with a range of hybrids with differences in stem wall properties. End-user needs were addressed by demonstrating the potential of optimizing miscanthus biomass composition for the production of ethanol and biogas as well as for combustion. The costs and life-cycle assessment of seven miscanthus-based value chains, including small- and large-scale heat and power, ethanol, biogas, and insulation material production, revealed GHG-emission- and fossil-energy-saving potentials of up to 30.6 t CO_2eq C ha^-1y^-1 and 429 GJ ha^-1y^-1, respectively. Transport distance was identified as an important cost factor. Negative carbon mitigation costs of -78€ t^-1 CO_2eq C were recorded for local biomass use. The OPTIMISC results demonstrate the potential of miscanthus as a crop for marginal sites and provide information and technologies for the commercial implementation of miscanthus-based value chains.

Simulating the impacts of land use in northwest Europe on Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE): the role of arable ecosystems, grasslands and forest plantations in climate change mitigation

In this study, we compared measured and simulated Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) values from three wide spread ecosystems in the southeast of Ireland (forest, arable and grassland), and investigated the suitability of the DNDC (the DeNitrification-DeComposition) model to estimate present and future NEE. Although, the field-DNDC version overestimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C, forest-DNDC under-estimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C. The results suggest that the field/forest DNDC models can successfully estimate changes in seasonal and annual NEE from these ecosystems. Differences in NEE were found to be primarily land cover specific. The annual NEE was similar for the grassland and arable sites, but due to the contribution of exported carbon, the soil carbon increased at the grassland site and decreased at the arable site. The NEE of the forest site was an order of magnitude larger than that of the grassland or arable ecosystems, with large amounts of carbon stored in woody biomass and the soil. The average annual NEE, GPP and Reco values over the measurement period were -904, 2379 and 1475 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), -189, 906 and 715 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and -212, 1653 and 1444 g C m(-2) (grasslands), respectively. The average RMSE values were 3.8 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), 0.12 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and 0.21 g C m(-2) (grasslands). When these models were run with climate change scenarios to 2060, predictions show that all three ecosystems will continue to operate as carbon sinks. Further, climate change may decrease the carbon sink strength in the forest plantations by up to 50%. This study supports the use of the DNDC model as a valid tool to predict the consequences of climate change on NEE from different ecosystems.

Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research

Systems approaches have great potential for application in predictive ecology. In this paper, we present a range of examples, where systems approaches are being developed and applied at a range of scales in the field of global change and biogeochemical cycling. Systems approaches range from Bayesian calibration techniques at plot scale, through data assimilation methods at regional to continental scales, to multi-disciplinary numerical model applications at country to global scales. We provide examples from a range of studies and show how these approaches are being used to address current topics in global change and biogeochemical research, such as the interaction between carbon and nitrogen cycles, terrestrial carbon feedbacks to climate change and the attribution of observed global changes to various drivers of change. We examine how transferable the methods and techniques might be to other areas of ecosystem science and ecology.

Safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and efficacy of the monoclonal antibody ASK8007 blocking osteopontin in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a randomised, placebo controlled, proof-of-concept study

OBJECTIVES

Osteopontin is an extracellular matrix protein with diverse immunomodulatory functions. The authors assessed the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and initial efficacy of the humanised monoclonal antibody ASK8007, which blocks osteopontin.

METHODS

In this double-blind, multicentre, combined first-in-man, single-dose escalation (phase I, part A) and proof-of-concept, multiple-dose (phase IIA, part B) study, rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients with active disease were randomly assigned to receive ASK8007 or placebo intravenously. Safety monitoring, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analyses and clinical assessments were performed throughout the study. The expression of phenotypic cell markers was evaluated in synovial tissue biopsy samples obtained at baseline and 43 days after initiation of treatment (part B) by immunohistochemistry and digital image analysis. Two co-primary efficacy endpoints were the change from baseline in the disease activity score evaluated in 28 joints (DAS28) and the change from baseline in the number of CD68 synovial sublining macrophages, both assessed on day 43 (part B).

RESULTS

ASK8007 was overall safe and well tolerated up to the highest studied dose (20 mg/kg). Quantifiable concentrations of ASK8007 were detected in synovial fluid. No differences were observed for changes from baseline in DAS28 and CD68 sublining macrophages between ASK8007 and placebo-treated patients. Within the ASK8007 treatment group, there were also no apparent clinical responses or changes in sublining macrophages. In addition, ASK8007 treatment did not change other assessed biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Osteopontin blockade is well tolerated and not related to safety concerns. These results consistently show that osteopontin blockade is unlikely to induce robust clinical improvement in RA patients.

Developing Miscanthus for Bioenergy

Miscanthus is a C4 perennial rhizomatous grass with origins in Eastern Asia. Several key species and their interspecific hybrids have demonstrated the potential to produce high biomass yields in a wide range of climates. Research on all aspects of Miscanthus has accelerated rapidly in the past 20 years. In this review we present the current state of knowledge on taxonomy, physiology, breeding, cultivation and environmental impact. We draw attention to many practical aspects to be considered in developing Miscanthus for bioenergy purposes including key bottlenecks that define the research themes for the future.

Marginal underdominance at a stable equilibrium

An example is given of a stable equilibrium of a deterministic discrete-generation two-locus, two-allele, model at which marginal (or induced) underdominance holds. The example was found by using a numerical search procedure that involved picking random equilibria and finding possible fitnesses that would lead to those equilibria.

Role of environmental variability in the evolution of life history strategies

We reexamine the role of environmental variability in the evolution of life history strategies. We show that normally distributed deviations in the quality of the environment should lead to normally distributed deviations in the logarithm of year-to-year survival probabilities, which leads to interesting consequences for the evolution of annual and perennial strategies and reproductive effort. We also examine the effects of using differing criteria to determine the outcome of selection. Some predictions of previous theory are reversed, allowing distinctions between r and K theory and a theory based on variability. However, these distinctions require information about both the environment and the selection process not required by current theory.

Measurement of intermodulation distortion in high-linearity photodiodes

Accurately characterizing third order intermodulation distortion (IMD3) in high-linearity photodiodes is challenging. Two measurement techniques are evaluated-a standard two-tone measurement and a more complicated three-tone measurement technique to measure IMD3. A model of the measurement system is developed and used to analyze the limitations of the two techniques in determining the distortion of highly linear photodiodes. Experimental validation is provided by comparing the simulation trends with IMD3 results measured on two types of waveguide photodiodes: 1) an InP based uni-traveling-carrier (UTC) photodiode and 2) a Ge n-i-p waveguide photodetector on Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI) substrate.

Ecosystem engineers: feedback and population dynamics

All organisms alter their abiotic environment, but ecosystem engineers are species with abiotic effects that may have to be explicitly accounted for when making predictions about population and community dynamics. The goal of this analysis is to identify those conditions in which engineering leads to population dynamics that are qualitatively different than one would predict using models that incorporate only biotic interactions. We present a simple model coupling an ecosystem engineer and the abiotic environment. We assume that the engineer alters environmental conditions at a rate dependent on engineer density and that the environment decays back to original conditions at an exponential rate. We determine when the feedback to population dynamics through environmental state can lead to altered equilibrium densities, bistability, or runaway growth of the engineer population. The conditions leading to changes in dynamics, such as susceptibility of a system to engineering or alteration of density-dependent and density-independent controls, define cases in which the engineering concept is essential for ecological understanding.

GP stress and patient dissatisfaction with nights on call: an exploratory study. GP stress and patient satisfaction

OBJECTIVES

To compare the relative effects of being on or off duty at night on general practitioners' (GPs') levels of stress, and the satisfaction of their patients with daytime consultations surrounding these nights.

DESIGN

A within-subjects, counterbalanced design was used. Two "on-call" and two "off-duty" nights were studied per GP over 4 weeks.

SETTING

Primary health care in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

26 GPs and their patients seen in consultations either side of nights studied.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

GPs completed validated stress questionnaires at the beginning and end of the consultation sessions immediately before and after nights on call and off duty.

RESULTS

GPs experienced elevated levels of stress when on call, compared to when they were off duty. Patients seen in the consultation sessions before and after a night on call were less satisfied than patients seen before and after a night off duty.

CONCLUSION

Being on call at night raised GP stress levels from at least the start of the afternoon consultation session before until the end of the morning consultation after the night on call. Daytime patient satisfaction is also reduced in periods surrounding nights on call.

Ecology. The lion and the lamb find closure

Interactions between enemies and their victims are found in all ecological communities. But what has puzzled ecologists is how victims and enemies coexist together for long periods of time without all of the victims being killed off. In a Perspective, Hastings explains a new model (Keeling et al.), which shows that variation in the distribution of victim and enemy species acts as a stabilizing factor in interactions between them.