The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Predicting bee community responses to land-use changes: Effects of geographic and taxonomic biases

Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentative; most data are from North America and Western Europe, overrepresenting bumblebees and raising concerns that model results may not be generalizable to other regions and taxa. To assess whether the geographic and taxonomic biases of data could undermine effectiveness of models for conservation policy, we have collated from the published literature a global dataset of bee diversity at sites facing land-use change and intensification, and assess whether bee responses to these pressures vary across 11 regions (Western, Northern, Eastern and Southern Europe; North, Central and South America; Australia and New Zealand; South East Asia; Middle and Southern Africa) and between bumblebees and other bees. Our analyses highlight strong regionally-based responses of total abundance, species richness and Simpson's diversity to land use, caused by variation in the sensitivity of species and potentially in the nature of threats. These results suggest that global extrapolation of models based on geographically and taxonomically restricted data may underestimate the true uncertainty, increasing the risk of ecological surprises.

Mapping species distributions: a comparison of skilled naturalist and lay citizen science recording

To assess the ability of traditional biological recording schemes and lay citizen science approaches to gather data on species distributions and changes therein, we examined bumblebee records from the UK's national repository (National Biodiversity Network) and from BeeWatch. The two recording approaches revealed similar relative abundances of bumblebee species but different geographical distributions. For the widespread common carder (Bombus pascuorum), traditional recording scheme data were patchy, both spatially and temporally, reflecting active record centre rather than species distribution. Lay citizen science records displayed more extensive geographic coverage, reflecting human population density, thus offering better opportunities to account for recording effort. For the rapidly spreading tree bumblebee (Bombus hypnorum), both recording approaches revealed similar distributions due to a dedicated mapping project which overcame the patchy nature of naturalist records. We recommend, where possible, complementing skilled naturalist recording with lay citizen science programmes to obtain a nation-wide capability, and stress the need for timely uploading of data to the national repository.

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

Triploid bumblebees indicate a direct cost of inbreeding in fragmented populations

Hymenopteran species with single-locus complimentary sex-determination (sl-CSD) face an additional cost of inbreeding because of a loss of diversity at the sex-determining locus. Laboratory studies of a range of Hymenoptera have found that a small percentage of diploid males produce viable diploid sperm, and that if these males mate, then the resultant females produce triploid offspring that are sterile. Here, we use microsatellite markers to determine the frequency of triploid individuals of Bombus muscorum and B. jonellus in a model island system. Triploids were found in populations of both species. Observed triploid frequencies of up to 8% were detected, and estimated total frequencies peaked at 20% with respect to normal diploid workers. For both species, triploid frequency was negatively correlated with surrogates of population size, providing direct evidence for inbreeding in small populations. Populations limited to <∼15 km(2) of suitable habitat were particularly likely to harbour triploids. Estimated total triploid frequencies were higher in B. muscorum than in B. jonellus, perhaps due to the greater dispersal range of the latter species. Implications for the conservation of rare social hymenopterans are discussed.

Genetic diversity, parasite prevalence and immunity in wild bumblebees

Inbreeding and a consequent loss of genetic diversity threaten small, isolated populations. One mechanism by which genetically impoverished populations may become extinct is through decreased immunocompetence and higher susceptibility to parasites. Here, we investigate the relationship between immunity and inbreeding in bumblebees, using Hebridean island populations of Bombus muscorum. We sampled nine populations and recorded parasite prevalence and measured two aspects of immunity: the encapsulation response and levels of phenoloxidase (PO). We found that prevalence of the gut parasite Crithidia bombi was higher in populations with lower genetic diversity. Neither measure of immune activity was correlated with genetic diversity. However, levels of PO declined with age and were also negatively correlated with parasite abundance. Our results suggest that as insect populations lose heterozygosity, the impact of parasitism will increase, pushing threatened populations closer to extinction.

Two bee-pollinated plant species show higher seed production when grown in gardens compared to arable farmland

Background

Insect pollinator abundance, in particular that of bees, has been shown to be high where there is a super-abundance of floral resources; for example in association with mass-flowering crops and also in gardens where flowering plants are often densely planted. Since land management affects pollinator numbers, it is also likely to affect the resultant pollination of plants growing in these habitats. We hypothesised that the seed or fruit set of two plant species, typically pollinated by bumblebees and/or honeybees might respond in one of two ways: 1) pollination success could be reduced when growing in a floriferous environment, via competition for pollinators, or 2) pollination success could be enhanced because of increased pollinator abundance in the vicinity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compared the pollination success of experimental plants of Glechoma hederacea L. and Lotus corniculatus L. growing in gardens and arable farmland. On the farms, the plants were placed either next to a mass-flowering crop (oilseed rape, Brassica napus L. or field beans, Vicia faba L.) or next to a cereal crop (wheat, Triticum spp.). Seed set of G. hederacea and fruit set of L. corniculatus were significantly higher in gardens compared to arable farmland. There was no significant difference in pollination success of G. hederacea when grown next to different crops, but for L. corniculatus, fruit set was higher in the plants growing next to oilseed rape when the crop was in flower.

Conclusions/Significance

The results show that pollination services can limit fruit set of wild plants in arable farmland, but there is some evidence that the presence of a flowering crop can facilitate their pollination (depending on species and season). We have also demonstrated that gardens are not only beneficial to pollinators, but also to the process of pollination.

Estimation of bumblebee queen dispersal distances using sibship reconstruction method

Dispersal ability is a key determinant of the propensity of an organism to cope with habitat fragmentation and climate change. Here we quantify queen dispersal in two common bumblebee species in an arable landscape. Dispersal was measured by taking DNA samples from workers in the spring and summer, and from queens in the following spring, at 14 sites across a landscape. The queens captured in the spring must be full sisters of workers that were foraging in the previous year. A range of sibship reconstruction methods were compared using simulated data sets including or no genotyping errors. The program Colony gave the most accurate reconstruction and was used for our analysis of queen dispersal. Comparison of queen dispersion with worker foraging distances was used to take into account an expected low level of false identification of sister pairs which might otherwise lead to overestimates of dispersal. Our data show that Bombus pascuorum and B. lapidarius queens can disperse by at least 3 and 5 km, respectively. These estimates are consistent with inferences drawn from studies of population structuring in common and rare bumblebee species, and suggest that regular gene flow over several kilometres due to queen dispersal are likely to be sufficient to maintain genetic cohesion of ubiquitous species over large spatial scales whereas rare bumblebee species appear unable to regularly disperse over distances greater than 10 km. Our results have clear implications for conservation strategies for this important pollinator group, particularly when attempting to conserve fragmented populations.

Cryptic differences in dispersal lead to differential sensitivity to habitat fragmentation in two bumblebee species

Habitat loss has led to fragmentation of populations of many invertebrates, but social hymenopterans may be particularly sensitive to habitat fragmentation due to their low effective population sizes. The impacts of fragmentation depend strongly on dispersal abilities, but these are difficult to quantify. Here, we quantify and compare dispersal abilities of two bumblebee species, Bombus muscorum and Bombus jonellus, in a model island system. We use microsatellites to investigate population genetic structuring, dispersal and spatial patterns in genetic diversity. Populations of both species showed significant structuring, and isolation by distance, but this was markedly greater in B. muscorum (theta = 0.13) than in B. jonellus (theta = 0.034). This difference could reflect a higher effective population size in B. jonellus compared to B. muscorum, but this is not consistent with the observed abundance of the two species. We argue that it is more likely that B. jonellus has a higher propensity to disperse than B. muscorum. This will influence their relative susceptibility to habitat fragmentation and may in part explain differential declines of mainland populations of these and other bumblebee species.

Impacts of inbreeding on bumblebee colony fitness under field conditions

Background

Inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity are known to be significant threats to small, isolated populations. Hymenoptera represent a special case regarding the impact of inbreeding. Haplodiploidy may permit purging of deleterious recessive alleles in haploid males, meaning inbreeding depression is reduced relative to diploid species. In contrast, the impact of inbreeding may be exacerbated in Hymenopteran species that have a single-locus complementary sex determination system, due to the production of sterile or inviable diploid males. We investigated the costs of brother-sister mating in the bumblebee Bombus terrestris. We compared inbred colonies that produced diploid males and inbred colonies that did not produce diploid males with outbred colonies. Mating, hibernation and colony founding took place in the laboratory. Once colonies had produced 15 offspring they were placed in the field and left to forage under natural conditions.

Results

The diploid male colonies had a significantly reduced fitness compared to regular inbred and outbred colonies; they had slower growth rates in the laboratory, survived for a shorter time period under field conditions and produced significantly fewer offspring overall. No differences in success were found between non-diploid male inbred colonies and outbred colonies.

Conclusion

Our data illustrate that inbreeding exacts a considerable cost in Bombus terrestris through the production of diploid males. We suggest that diploid males may act as indicators of the genetic health of populations, and that their detection could be used as an informative tool in hymenopteran conservation. We conclude that whilst haplodiploids may suffer less inbreeding depression than diploid species, they are still highly vulnerable to population fragmentation and reduced genetic diversity due to the extreme costs imposed by the production of diploid males.

Decline and conservation of bumble bees

Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

Extremely low effective population sizes, genetic structuring and reduced genetic diversity in a threatened bumblebee species, Bombus sylvarum (Hymenoptera: Apidae)

Habitat fragmentation may severely affect survival of social insect populations as the number of nests per population, not the number of individuals, represents population size, hence they may be particularly prone to loss of genetic diversity. Erosion of genetic diversity may be particularly significant among social Hymenoptera such as bumblebees (Bombus spp.), as this group may be susceptible to diploid male production, a suggested direct cost of inbreeding. Here, for the first time, we assess genetic diversity and population structuring of a threatened bumblebee species (Bombus sylvarum) which exists in highly fragmented habitat (rather than oceanic) islands. Effective population sizes, estimated from identified sisterhoods, were very low (range 21-72) suggesting that isolated populations will be vulnerable to loss of genetic variation through drift. Evidence of significant genetic structuring between populations (theta = 0.084) was found, but evidence of a bottleneck was detected in only one population. Comparison across highly fragmented UK populations and a continental population (where this species is more widespread) revealed significant differences in allelic richness attributable to a high degree of genetic diversity in the continental population. While not directly related to population size, this is perhaps explained by the high degree of isolation between UK populations relative to continental populations. We suggest that populations now existing on isolated habitat islands were probably linked by stepping-stone populations prior to recent habitat loss.

Population structure and inbreeding in a rare and declining bumblebee, Bombus muscorum (Hymenoptera: Apidae)

Owing to habitat loss populations of many organisms have declined and become fragmented. Vertebrate conservation strategies routinely consider genetic factors, but their importance in invertebrate populations is poorly understood. Bumblebees are important pollinators, and many species have undergone dramatic declines. As monoandrous social hymenopterans they may be particularly susceptible to inbreeding due to low effective population sizes. We study fragmented populations of a bumblebee species, on a model island system, and on mainland Great Britain where it is rare and declining. We use microsatellites to study: population genetic structuring and gene flow; the relationships between genetic diversity, population size and isolation; and frequencies of (sterile) diploid males - an indicator of inbreeding. We find significant genetic structuring (theta = 0.12) and isolation by distance. Populations > 10 km apart are all significantly differentiated, both on oceanic islands and on the mainland. Genetic diversity is reduced relative to closely related common species, and isolated populations exhibit further reductions. Of 16 populations, 10 show recent bottlenecking, and 3 show diploid male production. These results suggest that surviving populations of this rare insect suffer from inbreeding as a result of geographical isolation. Implications for the conservation of social hymenopterans are discussed.

Early plant growth: identifying the end point of the seedling phase

•  Despite the importance of seedling establishment in plant biology, there is no consensus on what constitutes a 'seedling'. Here we examined aspects of early plant development that could be used to mark the transition from the seedling to the postseedling phase. •  Using a hypogeal species (pea, Pisum sativum) and an epigeal species (sunflower, Helianthus annuus), we investigated whether the utilization of cotyledon-stored mineral nutrients coincides with any changes in relative growth rate (RGR). We also examined how the timing of cotyledon removal at different points during early development affected subsequent growth. •  For both species, the timing of RGR_max , the exhaustion of cotyledon reserves, and the attainment of independence from cotyledons all roughly coincided (though exhaustion of seed reserves was not observed in the epigeal species because the cotyledons absorbed external nutrients). •  We conclude that because the point of attainment of RGR_max is a distinctly identifiable event, it is a more reliable marker for defining the end of the seedling stage than either the exhaustion of mineral reserves, or the cessation of dependence on cotyledon reserves.

Seed size and germination response: a relationship for fire-following plant species exposed to thermal shock

Thermal shock is well known to be an important stimulus for the germination of soil-stored seeds in fire-prone plant communities. Nevertheless, while the overall germination response of different species is known to vary, the interaction between seed size and germination to a range of thermal-shock temperatures is poorly understood. This interaction may be important in regulating post-fire plant community establishment, since larger seeds are able to emerge from deeper within the soil profile than smaller seeds, and are therefore likely to be insulated against high above-ground temperatures by a deeper soil covering. In this experiment we examined how germination of eight co-occurring Western Australian fire-followers was influenced by thermal shock, and whether germination was significantly correlated with seed size. We found that small-seeded species not only showed enhanced germination at higher temperatures, but that their ability to germinate at higher temperatures was also greater than that displayed by larger-seeded species. These findings suggest that while seed size may be a useful general predictor of post-fire recruitment success, under different fire regimes the interaction between seed size, maximum seedling emergence depth, and the ability to withstand different thermal-shock temperatures is complex and may confound recent predictive models.