Factors Associated With Loss to Follow-Up in Surgical Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) distorts results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Understanding trial characteristics that contribute to LTFU may enable investigators to anticipate the extent of LTFU and plan retention strategies. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate the extent of LTFU in surgical RCTs and evaluate associations between trial characteristics and LTFU.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, and PubMed Central were searched for surgical RCTs published between January 2002 and December 2021 in the 30 highest impact factor surgical journals. Two-hundred eligible RCTs were randomly selected. The pooled LTFU rate was estimated using random intercept Poisson regression. Associations between trial characteristics and LTFU were assessed using metaregression.

RESULTS

The 200 RCTs included 37,914 participants and 1307 LTFU events. The pooled LTFU rate was 3.10 participants per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.85-5.17). Trial characteristics associated with reduced LTFU were standard-of-care outcome assessments (rate ratio [RR] 0.17; 95% CI 0.06-0.48), surgery for transplantation (RR 0.08; 95% CI 0.01-0.43), and surgery for cancer (RR 0.10; 95% CI 0.02-0.53). Increased LTFU was associated with patient-reported outcomes (RR 14.21; 95% CI 4.82-41.91) and follow-up duration ≥ three months (odds ratio 10.09; 95% CI 4.79-21.28).

CONCLUSIONS

LTFU in surgical RCTs is uncommon. Participants may be at increased risk of LTFU in trials with outcomes assessed beyond the standard of care, surgical indications other than cancer or transplant, patient-reported outcomes, and longer follow-up. Investigators should consider the impact of design on LTFU and plan retention strategies accordingly.

Influence of Pathophysiological Patterns of Coronary Artery Disease on Immediate Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Diffuse coronary artery disease (CAD) impacts the safety and efficacy of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Pathophysiological CAD patterns can be quantified using fractional flow reserve (FFR) pullbacks incorporating the pullback pressure gradient (PPG) calculation. This study aimed to establish the capacity of PPG to predict optimal revascularisation and procedural outcomes.

METHODS

This prospective, investigator-initiated, single-arm, multicentre study enrolled patients with at least one epicardial lesion with an FFR ≤ 0.80 scheduled for PCI. Manual FFR pullbacks were employed to calculate PPG. The primary outcome of optimal revascularisation was defined as a post-PCI FFR ≥ 0.88.

RESULTS

993 patients with 1044 vessels were included. The mean FFR was 0.68 ± 0.12, PPG 0.62 ± 0.17, and post-PCI FFR 0.87 ± 0.07. PPG was significantly correlated with the change in FFR after PCI (r=0.65, 95% CI 0.61-0.69, p<0.001) and demonstrated excellent predicted capacity for optimal revascularisation (AUC 0.82, 95% CI 0.79-0.84, p<0.001). Conversely, FFR alone did not predict revascularisation outcomes (AUC 0.54, 95% CI 0.50-0.57). PPG influenced treatment decisions in 14% of patients, redirecting them from PCI to alternative treatment modalities. Periprocedural myocardial infarction occurred more frequently in patients with low PPG (<0.62) compared to those with focal disease (OR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.00-2.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Pathophysiological CAD patterns distinctly affect the safety and effectiveness of PCI. The PPG showed an excellent predictive capacity for optimal revascularisation and demonstrated added value compared to a FFR measurement.

Ticagrelor or Clopidogrel Monotherapy vs Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Systematic Review and Patient-Level Meta-Analysis

Importance

Among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), it remains unclear whether the treatment efficacy of P2Y12 inhibitor monotherapy after a short course of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) depends on the type of P2Y12 inhibitor.

Objective

To assess the risks and benefits of ticagrelor monotherapy or clopidogrel monotherapy compared with standard DAPT after PCI.

Data Sources

MEDLINE, Embase, TCTMD, and the European Society of Cardiology website were searched from inception to September 10, 2023, without language restriction.

Study Selection

Included studies were randomized clinical trials comparing P2Y12 inhibitor monotherapy with DAPT on adjudicated end points in patients without indication to oral anticoagulation undergoing PCI.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Patient-level data provided by each trial were synthesized into a pooled dataset and analyzed using a 1-step mixed-effects model. The study is reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses of Individual Participant Data.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary objective was to determine noninferiority of ticagrelor or clopidogrel monotherapy vs DAPT on the composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke in the per-protocol analysis with a 1.15 margin for the hazard ratio (HR). Key secondary end points were major bleeding and net adverse clinical events (NACE), including the primary end point and major bleeding.

Results

Analyses included 6 randomized trials including 25 960 patients undergoing PCI, of whom 24 394 patients (12 403 patients receiving DAPT; 8292 patients receiving ticagrelor monotherapy; 3654 patients receiving clopidogrel monotherapy; 45 patients receiving prasugrel monotherapy) were retained in the per-protocol analysis. Trials of ticagrelor monotherapy were conducted in Asia, Europe, and North America; trials of clopidogrel monotherapy were all conducted in Asia. Ticagrelor was noninferior to DAPT for the primary end point (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.74-1.06; P for noninferiority = .004), but clopidogrel was not noninferior (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.01-1.87; P for noninferiority > .99), with this finding driven by noncardiovascular death. The risk of major bleeding was lower with both ticagrelor (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.36-0.62; P < .001) and clopidogrel monotherapy (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.30-0.81; P = .006; P for interaction = 0.88). NACE were lower with ticagrelor (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.64-0.86, P < .001) but not with clopidogrel monotherapy (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.78-1.28; P = .99; P for interaction = .04).

Conclusions and Relevance

This systematic review and meta-analysis found that ticagrelor monotherapy was noninferior to DAPT for all-cause death, MI, or stroke and superior for major bleeding and NACE. Clopidogrel monotherapy was similarly associated with reduced bleeding but was not noninferior to DAPT for all-cause death, MI, or stroke, largely because of risk observed in 1 trial that exclusively included East Asian patients and a hazard that was driven by an excess of noncardiovascular death.

Treatment outcomes of regenerative endodontic therapy in immature permanent teeth with pulpal necrosis: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

AIM

The aim of this study was to assess which treatment modality regarding scaffold selection for immature permanent teeth with pulpal necrosis will be the most successful for regenerative endodontic treatment (RET).

METHODOLOGY

PubMed, Cochrane, Web of Science and Embase, and additional records until August 2022 were searched providing a total of 3021 articles, and nine of these articles were included for quantitative synthesis. The reviewers selected eligible randomized controlled trials and extracted pertinent data. Network meta-analysis was conducted to estimate treatment effects for primary outcomes (clinical and radiographic healing) and secondary outcomes (apical closure, root length and root wall thickness increase) following RET [mean difference (MD); 95% credible interval (CrI) and surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA)]. The quality of the included studies was appraised by the revised Cochrane risk of bias tool, and the quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

Six interventions from nine included studies were identified: blood clot scaffold (BC), blood clot scaffold with basic fibroblast growth factor, blood clot scaffold with collagen, platelet pellet, platelet-rich plasma (PRP) and platelet-rich fibrin (PRF). The PRP scaffold showed the greatest increase in root lengthening at 6-12 months (MD = 4.2; 95% CrI, 1.2 to 6.8; SUCRA = 89.0%, very low confidence). PRP or PRF achieved the highest level of success for primary and secondary outcomes at 1-6 and 6-12 months. Blood clot scaffold (with collagen or combined with basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF)) achieved the highest level of success for secondary outcomes beyond 12 months follow-up. A very low to low quality of evidence suggests that both PRP and PRF exhibit the greatest success evaluating primary and secondary outcomes within 12 months postoperatively compared to the traditional blood clot scaffold protocol.

CONCLUSION

Limited evidence suggests both PRP and PRF exhibit success in the short-term, not long-term. The value of this information stems in its recommendation for future randomized trials prioritizing both of these materials in their protocol.

Plant-Based Milk Consumption and Growth in Children 1-10 Years of Age

BACKGROUND

The effects of plant-based milk consumption on the growth of children are unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the relationship between plant-based milk consumption and BMI in childhood. Secondary objectives were to examine the association with height and whether these relationships are mediated by dairy milk intake and modified by age or the type of plant-based milk consumed.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted in healthy children aged 1-10 y through the TARGet Kids! primary care research network in Toronto, Canada. Linear mixed-effect modeling and logistic generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between plant-based milk consumption (number of 250 mL cups/d) and BMI. A mediation analysis was conducted to examine whether dairy milk intake mediated these relationships. Effect modification by age and type of plant-based milk was explored.

RESULTS

Among 7195 children (mean age: 3.1 y; 52.3% male), higher plant-based milk consumption was associated with lower BMI (P = 0.0002) and height (P = 0.005). No association was found with BMI categories. Lower dairy milk intake partially mediated these relationships. A child aged 5 y who consumed 3 cups of plant-based milk compared with 3 cups of dairy milk had a lower weight of 0.5 kg and lower height of 0.8 cm. Associations did not change over time and were similar for children who consumed soy milk compared with other plant-based milks.

CONCLUSIONS

Plant-based milk consumption was associated with lower BMI and height, but both were within the normal range on average. Future longitudinal studies are needed to determine whether these associations persist over time.

Intracluster correlation coefficients in osteoarthritis cluster randomized trials: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

The design, analysis, and interpretation of cluster randomized clinical trials (RCTs) require accounting for potential correlation of observations on individuals within the same cluster. Reporting of observed intracluster correlation coefficients (ICCs) in cluster RCTs, as recommended by Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT), facilitates sample size calculation of future cluster RCTs and understanding of the trial statistical power. Our objective was to summarize observed ICCs in osteoarthritis (OA) cluster RCTs.

DESIGN

Systematic review of knee/hip OA cluster RCTs. We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for trials published from 2012, when CONSORT cluster RCTs extension was published, to September 2022. We calculated the proportion of cluster RCTs that reported observed ICCs. Of those that did, we extracted observed ICCs.

PROSPERO

CRD42022365660.

RESULTS

We screened 1121 references and included 20 cluster RCTs. Only 5 trials (25%) reported the observed ICC for at least one outcome variable. ICC values for pain outcomes were: 0, 0.01, 0.18; for physical function outcomes were: 0, 0.06, 0.13 (knee)/0.27 (hip); Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) total: 0.02, 0.02; symptoms of anxiety/depression: 0.22; disability: 0; and global change: 0. One out of four (25%) trials reported an ICC that was larger than the ICC used for sample size calculation and thus was underpowered.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite CONSORT statement recommendations for reporting cluster RCTs, few OA trials reported the observed ICC. Given the importance of the ICC to interpretation of trial results and future trial design, this reporting gap warrants attention.

Rationale and design of the pullback pressure gradient (PPG) global registry

INTRODUCTION

Diffuse disease has been identified as one of the main reasons leading to low post-PCI fractional flow reserve (FFR) and residual angina after PCI. Coronary pressure pullbacks allow for the evaluation of hemodynamic coronary artery disease (CAD) patterns. The pullback pressure gradient (PPG) is a novel metric that quantifies the distribution and magnitude of pressure losses along the coronary artery in a focal-to-diffuse continuum.

AIM

The primary objective is to determine the predictive capacity of the PPG for post-PCI FFR.

METHODS

This prospective, large-scale, controlled, investigator-initiated, multicenter study is enrolling patients with at least 1 lesion in a major epicardial vessel with a distal FFR ≤ 0.80 intended to be treated by PCI. The study will include 982 subjects. A standardized physiological assessment will be performed pre-PCI, including the online calculation of PPG from FFR pullbacks performed manually. PPG quantifies the CAD pattern by combining several parameters from the FFR pullback curve. Post-PCI physiology will be recorded using a standardized protocol with FFR pullbacks. We hypothesize that PPG will predict optimal PCI results (post-PCI FFR ≥ 0.88) with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) ≥ 0.80. Secondary objectives include patient-reported and clinical outcomes in patients with focal vs. diffuse CAD defined by the PPG. Clinical follow-up will be collected for up to 36 months, and an independent clinical event committee will adjudicate events.

RESULTS

Recruitment is ongoing and is expected to be completed in the second half of 2023.

CONCLUSION

This international, large-scale, prospective study with pre-specified powered hypotheses will determine the ability of the preprocedural PPG index to predict optimal revascularization assessed by post-PCI FFR. In addition, it will evaluate the impact of PPG on treatment decisions and the predictive performance of PPG for angina relief and clinical outcomes.

Initiation of continuous renal replacement therapy versus intermittent hemodialysis in critically ill patients with severe acute kidney injury: a secondary analysis of STARRT-AKI trial

BACKGROUND

There is controversy regarding the optimal renal-replacement therapy (RRT) modality for critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI).

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of the STandard versus Accelerated Renal Replacement Therapy in Acute Kidney Injury (STARRT-AKI) trial to compare outcomes among patients who initiated RRT with either continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) or intermittent hemodialysis (IHD). We generated a propensity score for the likelihood of receiving CRRT and used inverse probability of treatment with overlap-weighting to address baseline inter-group differences. The primary outcome was a composite of death or RRT dependence at 90-days after randomization.

RESULTS

We identified 1590 trial participants who initially received CRRT and 606 who initially received IHD. The composite outcome of death or RRT dependence at 90-days occurred in 823 (51.8%) patients who commenced CRRT and 329 (54.3%) patients who commenced IHD (unadjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.90; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-1.09). After balancing baseline characteristics with overlap weighting, initial receipt of CRRT was associated with a lower risk of death or RRT dependence at 90-days compared with initial receipt of IHD (OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.66-0.99). This association was predominantly driven by a lower risk of RRT dependence at 90-days (OR 0.61; 95% CI 0.39-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

In critically ill patients with severe AKI, initiation of CRRT, as compared to IHD, was associated with a significant reduction in the composite outcome of death or RRT dependence at 90-days.

Nebivolol versus placebo in patients undergoing anthracyclines (CONTROL Trial): rationale and study design

AIMS

Anthracyclines are the chemotherapeutic agents most frequently associated with cardiotoxicity, while remaining widely used. Different neurohormonal blockers have been tested as a primary prevention strategy to prevent or attenuate the onset of cardiotoxicity, with mixed results. However, prior studies were often limited by a nonblinded design and an assessment of cardiac function based only on echocardiographic imaging. Moreover, on the basis of an improved mechanistic understanding of anthracycline cardiotoxicity mechanisms, new therapeutic strategies have been proposed. Among cardioprotective drugs, nebivolol might be able to prevent the cardiotoxic effects of anthracyclines, through its protective properties towards the myocardium, endothelium, and cardiac mitochondria. This study aims to evaluate the cardioprotective effects of the beta blocker nebivolol in a prospective, placebo-controlled, superiority randomized trial in patients with breast cancer or diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) who have a normal cardiac function and will receive anthracyclines as part of their first-line chemotherapy programme.

METHODS

The CONTROL trial is a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, superiority trial. Patients with breast cancer or a DLBCL, with a normal cardiac function as assessed by echocardiography, scheduled for treatment with anthracyclines as part of their first-line chemotherapy programme will be randomized 1 : 1 to nebivolol 5 mg once daily (o.d.) or placebo. Patients will be examined with cardiological assessment, echocardiography and cardiac biomarkers at baseline, 1 month, 6 months and 12 months. A cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) assessment will be performed at baseline and at 12 months. The primary end point is defined as left ventricular ejection fraction reduction assessed by CMR at 12 months of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The CONTROL trial is designed to provide evidence to assess the cardioprotective role of nebivolol in patients undergoing chemotherapy with anthracyclines.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study is registered in the EudraCT registry (number: 2017-004618-24) and in the ClinicalTrials.gov registry (identifier: NCT05728632).

Effect of plant milk consumption on childhood growth: protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

There has been considerable debate about whether plant milks can support the nutritional requirements of growing children. The proposed systematic review aims to assess the evidence on the relationship between plant milk consumption and growth and nutritional status in childhood.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Ovid MEDLINE ALL (1946-present), Ovid EMBASE Classic (1947-present), CINAHL Complete (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), Scopus, the Cochrane Library and grey literature will be searched comprehensively (from 2000 to present; English language) to find studies that describe the association between plant milk consumption and growth or nutrition in children 1-18 years of age. Two reviewers will identify eligible articles, extract data and assess the risk of bias in individual studies. If a meta-analyses is not conducted, the evidence will be synthesised narratively and the overall certainty of evidence will be rated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required for this study since no data will be collected. Results of the systematic review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal. Findings from this study may be useful in informing future evidence-based recommendations about plant milk consumption in children.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022367269.

Parent and physician beliefs, perceptions and knowledge of plant milks for children

Background: Parent and physician perceptions of plant milk are unclear. Aim: To explore parent and physician perceptions of plant milk for children and to gain a better understanding of why parents and physicians might choose plant milk for children. Methods: A mixed methods study was conducted using a questionnaire and interviews with parents and physicians participating in the TARGet Kids! cohort study. Questionnaire data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Interview transcripts were analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Parents reported a variety of reasons for choosing plant milk for their children including concerns around allergies, the environment, animal welfare, plant-based diet, health benefits, taste and hormones in cow's milk. Parents gave their children various types of plant milks and physicians provided various recommendations to parents of children not consuming cow's milk. Our study identified that 79% of parents and 51% of physicians were unaware that soy milk is the recommended cow's milk substitute for children. Additionally, 26% of parents did not know some plant milks are not fortified and can contain added sugar. Three main themes were identified from interviews about why parents and physicians may choose plant milk for children: (i) healthiness of plant milk; (ii) concerns about hormones; and (iii) environmental impacts. Conclusions: Parents and physicians choose the milk that they believe is healthiest for their child or patient. However, a lack of clarity on the effects of plant milk consumption on children's health resulted in conflicting views on whether plant milk or cow's milk is healthier for children.

Effect of Wearing a Face Mask on Hand-to-Face Contact by Children in a Simulated School Environment: The Back-to-School COVID-19 Simulation Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Wearing a face mask in school can reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission but it may also lead to increased hand-to-face contact, which in turn could increase infection risk through self-inoculation.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of wearing a face mask on hand-to-face contact by children while at school.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective randomized clinical trial randomized students from junior kindergarten to grade 12 at 2 schools in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, during August 2020 in a 1:1 ratio to either a mask or control class during a 2-day school simulation. Classes were video recorded from 4 angles to accurately capture outcomes.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants in the mask arm were instructed to bring their own mask and wear it at all times. Students assigned to control classes were not required to mask at any time (grade 4 and lower) or in the classroom where physical distancing could be maintained (grade 5 and up).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was the number of hand-to-face contacts per student per hour on day 2 of the simulation. Secondary outcomes included hand-to-mucosa contacts and hand-to-nonmucosa contacts. A mixed Poisson regression model was used to derive rate ratios (RRs), adjusted for age and sex with a random intercept for class with bootstrapped 95% CIs.

RESULTS

A total of 174 students underwent randomization and 171 students (mask group, 50.6% male; control group, 52.4% male) attended school on day 2. The rate of hand-to-face contacts did not differ significantly between the mask and the control groups (88.2 vs 88.7 events per student per hour; RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.78-1.28; P = >.99). When compared with the control group, the rate of hand-to-mucosa contacts was significantly lower in the mask group (RR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.07-0.21), while the rate of hand-to-nonmucosa contacts was higher (RR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this clinical trial of simulated school attendance, hand-to-face contacts did not differ among students required to wear face masks vs students not required to wear face masks; however, hand-to-mucosa contracts were lower in the face mask group. This suggests that mask wearing is unlikely to increase infection risk through self-inoculation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04531254.

Viscosupplementation for knee osteoarthritis: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of viscosupplementation for pain and function in patients with knee osteoarthritis.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials.

DATA SOURCES

Searches were conducted of Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) databases from inception to 11 September 2021. Unpublished trials were identified from the grey literature and trial registries.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Randomised trials comparing viscosupplementation with placebo or no intervention for knee osteoarthritis treatment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The prespecified primary outcome was pain intensity. Secondary outcomes were function and serious adverse events. Pain and function were analysed as standardised mean differences (SMDs). The prespecified minimal clinically important between group difference was -0.37 SMD. Serious adverse events were analysed as relative risks.

METHODS

Two reviewers independently extracted relevant data and assessed the risk of bias of trials using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. The predefined main analysis was based only on large, placebo controlled trials with ≥100 participants per group. Summary results were obtained through a random effects meta-analysis model. Cumulative meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis under a random effects model were also performed.

RESULTS

169 trials provided data on 21 163 randomised participants. Evidence of small study effects and publication biases was observed for pain and function (Egger's tests with P<0.001 and asymmetric funnel plots). Twenty four large, placebo controlled trials (8997 randomised participants) included in the main analysis of pain indicated that viscosupplementation was associated with a small reduction in pain intensity compared with placebo (SMD -0.08, 95% confidence interval -0.15 to -0.02), with the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval excluding the minimal clinically important between group difference. This effect corresponds to a difference in pain scores of -2.0 mm (95% confidence interval -3.8 to -0.5 mm) on a 100 mm visual analogue scale. Trial sequential analysis for pain indicated that since 2009 there has been conclusive evidence of clinical equivalence between viscosupplementation and placebo. Similar conclusions were obtained for function. Based on 15 large, placebo controlled trials on 6462 randomised participants, viscosupplementation was associated with a statistically significant higher risk of serious adverse events than placebo (relative risk 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.98).

CONCLUSION

Strong conclusive evidence indicates that viscosupplementation leads to a small reduction in knee osteoarthritis pain compared with placebo, but the difference is less than the minimal clinically important between group difference. Strong conclusive evidence indicates that viscosupplementation is also associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events compared with placebo. The findings do not support broad use of viscosupplementation for the treatment of knee osteoarthritis.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021236894.

Interventions to Decrease Carotid-Intima Media Thickness in Children and Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Hyperglycemia is associated with a higher cardiovascular risk, as evidenced by increased carotid-intima media thickness (CIMT) in youth with diabetes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions on CIMT in children and adolescents with prediabetes or diabetes.

Methods

We conducted systematic searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, together with supplementary searches in trial registers and other sources for studies completed up to September 2019. Interventional studies assessing ultrasound CIMT in children and adolescents with prediabetes or diabetes were considered for inclusion. Where appropriate, data were pooled across studies using random-effect meta-analysis. Quality was assessed using The Cochrane Collaboration’s risk-of-bias tool and a CIMT reliability tool.

Results

Six studies involving 644 children with type 1 diabetes mellitus were included. No study involved children with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes. Three randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluated the effects of metformin, quinapril, and atorvastatin. Three non-randomized studies, with a before-and-after design, evaluated the effects of physical exercise and continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII). The mean CIMT at baseline ranged from 0.40 to 0.51 mm. The pooled difference in CIMT was -0.01 mm (95% CI: -0.04 to 0.01) for metformin compared to placebo (2 studies; 135 participants; I2: 0%). The difference in CIMT was -0.01 mm (95% CI: -0.03 to 0.01) for quinapril compared to placebo (1 study; 406 participants). The mean change from baseline in CIMT was -0.03 mm (95% CI: -0.14 to 0.08) after physical exercise (1 study; 7 participants). Inconsistent results were reported for CSII or for atorvastatin. CIMT measurement was rated at a higher quality on all reliability domains in 3 (50%) studies. The confidence in results is limited by the low number of RCTs and their small sample sizes, as well as the high risk of bias in before-and-after studies.

Conclusions

Some pharmacological interventions may decrease CIMT in children with type 1 diabetes. However, there is great uncertainty with respect to their effects and no strong conclusions can be drawn. Further evidence from larger RCTs is required.

Systematic Review Registration

PROSPERO, CRD42017075169

Are Biases Related to Attrition, Missing Data, and the Use of Intention to Treat Related to the Magnitude of Treatment Effects in Physical Therapy Trials?: A Meta-Epidemiological Study

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to determine the association between biases related to attrition, missing data, and the use of intention to treat and changes in effect size estimates in physical therapy randomized trials. A meta-epidemiological study was conducted. A random sample of randomized controlled trials included in meta-analyses in the physical therapy discipline were identified. Data extraction including assessments of the use of intention to treat principle, attrition-related bias, and missing data was conducted independently by two reviewers. To determine the association between these methodological issues and effect sizes, a two-level analysis was conducted using a meta-meta-analytic approach. Three hundred ninety-three trials included in 43 meta-analyses, analyzing 44,622 patients contributed to this study. Trials that did not use the intention-to-treat principle (effect size = -0.13, 95% confidence interval = -0.26 to 0.01) or that were assessed as having inappropriate control of incomplete outcome data tended to underestimate the treatment effect when compared with trials with adequate use of intention to treat and control of incomplete outcome data (effect size = -0.18, 95% confidence interval = -0.29 to -0.08).Researchers and clinicians should pay attention to these methodological issues because they could provide inaccurate effect estimates. Authors and editors should make sure that intention-to-treat and missing data are properly reported in trial reports.

Prone positioning of patients with moderate hypoxaemia due to covid-19: multicentre pragmatic randomised trial (COVID-PRONE)

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of prone positioning to reduce the risk of death or respiratory failure in non-critically ill patients admitted to hospital with covid-19.

DESIGN

Multicentre pragmatic randomised clinical trial.

SETTING

15 hospitals in Canada and the United States from May 2020 until May 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

Eligible patients had a laboratory confirmed or a clinically highly suspected diagnosis of covid-19, needed supplemental oxygen (up to 50% fraction of inspired oxygen), and were able to independently lie prone with verbal instruction. Of the 570 patients who were assessed for eligibility, 257 were randomised and 248 were included in the analysis.

INTERVENTION

Patients were randomised 1:1 to prone positioning (that is, instructing a patient to lie on their stomach while they are in bed) or standard of care (that is, no instruction to adopt prone position).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital death, mechanical ventilation, or worsening respiratory failure defined as needing at least 60% fraction of inspired oxygen for at least 24 hours. Secondary outcomes included the change in the ratio of oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen.

RESULTS

The trial was stopped early on the basis of futility for the pre-specified primary outcome. The median time from hospital admission until randomisation was 1 day, the median age of patients was 56 (interquartile range 45-65) years, 89 (36%) patients were female, and 222 (90%) were receiving oxygen via nasal prongs at the time of randomisation. The median time spent prone in the first 72 hours was 6 (1.5-12.8) hours in total for the prone arm compared with 0 (0-2) hours in the control arm. The risk of the primary outcome was similar between the prone group (18 (14%) events) and the standard care group (17 (14%) events) (odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.44 to 1.92). The change in the ratio of oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen after 72 hours was similar for patients randomised to prone positioning and standard of care.

CONCLUSION

Among non-critically ill patients with hypoxaemia who were admitted to hospital with covid-19, a multifaceted intervention to increase prone positioning did not improve outcomes. However, wide confidence intervals preclude definitively ruling out benefit or harm. Adherence to prone positioning was poor, despite multiple efforts to increase it. Subsequent trials of prone positioning should aim to develop strategies to improve adherence to awake prone positioning.

STUDY REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04383613.

Cash transfer during the COVID-19 pandemic: a multicentre, randomised controlled trial

Objective

To evaluate the effect of a one-time cash transfer of $C1000 in people who are unable to physically distance due to insufficient income.

Design

Open-label, multi-centre, randomised superiority trial.

Setting

Seven primary care sites in Ontario, Canada; six urban sites associated with St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto and one in Manitoulin Island.

Participants

392 individuals who reported trouble affording basic necessities due to disruptions related to COVID-19.

Intervention

After random allocation, participants either received the cash transfer of $C1000 (n=196) or physical distancing guidelines alone (n=196).

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome was the maximum number of symptoms consistent with COVID-19 over 14 days. Secondary outcomes were meeting clinical criteria for COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 presence, number of close contacts, general health and ability to afford basic necessities.

Results

The primary outcome of number of symptoms reported by participants did not differ between groups after 2 weeks (cash transfer, mean 1.6 vs 1.9, ratio of means 0.83; 95% CI 0.56 to 1.24). There were no statistically significant effects on secondary outcomes of the meeting COVID-19 clinical criteria (7.9% vs 12.8%; risk difference −0.05; 95% CI −0.11 to 0.01), SARS-CoV-2 presence (0.5% vs 0.6%; risk difference 0.00 95% CI −0.02 to 0.02), mean number of close contacts (3.5 vs 3.7; rate ratio 1.10; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.46), general health very good or excellent (60% vs 63%; risk difference −0.03 95% CI −0.14 to 0.08) and ability to make ends meet (52% vs 51%; risk difference 0.01 95% CI −0.10 to 0.12).

Conclusions

A single cash transfer did not reduce the COVID-19 symptoms or improve the ability to afford necessities. Further studies are needed to determine whether some groups may benefit from financial supports and to determine if a higher level of support is beneficial.

Trial registration number

NCT04359264.

Randomized trials of therapeutic heparin for COVID-19: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary endothelial injury and microcirculatory thromboses likely contribute to hypoxemic respiratory failure, the most common cause of death, in patients with COVID-19. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) suggest differences in the effect of therapeutic heparin between moderately and severely ill patients with COVID-19. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs to determine the effects of therapeutic heparin in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, medRxiv, and medical conference proceedings for RCTs comparing therapeutic heparin with usual care, excluding trials that used oral anticoagulation or intermediate doses of heparin in the experimental arm. Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effect meta-analysis was used to combine odds ratios (ORs).

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

There were 3 RCTs that compared therapeutic heparin to lower doses of heparin in 2854 moderately ill ward patients, and 3 RCTs in 1191 severely ill patients receiving critical care. In moderately ill patients, there was a nonsignificant reduction in all-cause death (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.57-1.02), but significant reductions in the composite of death or invasive mechanical ventilation (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60 0.98), and death or any thrombotic event (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.45-0.77). Organ support-free days alive (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.07-1.57) were significantly increased with therapeutic heparin. There was a nonsignificant increase in major bleeding. In severely ill patients, there was no evidence for benefit of therapeutic heparin, with significant treatment-by-subgroup interactions with illness severity for all-cause death (P = .034). In conclusion, therapeutic heparin is beneficial in moderately ill patients but not in severely ill patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Risk-stratification of febrile African children at risk of sepsis using sTREM-1 as basis for a rapid triage test

Identifying febrile children at risk of sepsis in low-resource settings can improve survival, but recognition triage tools are lacking. Here we test the hypothesis that measuring circulating markers of immune and endothelial activation may identify children with sepsis at risk of all-cause mortality. In a prospective cohort study of 2,502 children in Uganda, we show that Soluble Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1) measured at first clinical presentation, had high predictive accuracy for subsequent in-hospital mortality. sTREM-1 had the best performance, versus 10 other markers, with an AUROC for discriminating children at risk of death of 0.893 in derivation (95% CI 0.843-0.944) and 0.901 in validation (95% CI 0.856-0.947) cohort. sTREM-1 cutoffs corresponding to a negative likelihood ratio (LR) of 0.10 and a positive LR of 10 classified children into low (1,306 children, 53.1%), intermediate (942, 38.3%) and high (212, 8.6%) risk zones. The estimated incidence of death was 0.5%, 3.9%, and 31.8%, respectively, suggesting sTREM-1 could be used to risk-stratify febrile children. These findings do not attempt to derive a risk prediction model, but rather define sTREM-1 cutoffs as the basis for rapid triage test for all cause fever syndromes in children in low-resource settings.

Efficacy and safety of different interventions to accelerate maxillary canine retraction following premolar extraction: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

Decreasing orthodontic treatment duration is at the forefront of innovation for clinical orthodontics. This network meta-analysis aimed to determine the relative efficacy and safety of treatments for accelerated orthodontic tooth movement (OTM) in patients undergoing extraction of maxillary first premolars followed by canine retraction in any orthodontic setting. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL and SCOPUS were searched (from inception to 20 April 2020). Study selection and data extraction were performed in duplicate. Eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were meta-analysed to estimate the rate of tooth movement, 95% credible interval and surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) in the first 3 months following the application of the adjunctive accelerative method. Eligible RCTs were assessed by Cochrane risk of bias tool, and quality of evidence was assessed by GRADE approach, obtained from CINeMA web application. Interventions were ranked for efficacy and reviewed for safety. Nineteen studies pertaining to eight interventions, with data from 415 patients were included. Quality of evidence was very low to moderate. Very low-to low-quality evidence suggests that corticotomy is an efficacious and safe adjunctive treatment to accelerate OTM in comparison with conventional treatment in the first 2 months of treatment. Low-quality evidence suggests that piezocision and micro-osteoperforations (MOP) are efficacious and safe adjunctive treatments only in the first month of treatment. Frequent MOP in conjunction with low-level laser therapy appeared to be an efficacious and safe adjunctive treatment only in the first month following its initial application but not thereafter.

Effectiveness of therapeutic heparin versus prophylactic heparin on death, mechanical ventilation, or intensive care unit admission in moderately ill patients with covid-19 admitted to hospital: RAPID randomised clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects of therapeutic heparin compared with prophylactic heparin among moderately ill patients with covid-19 admitted to hospital wards.

DESIGN

Randomised controlled, adaptive, open label clinical trial.

SETTING

28 hospitals in Brazil, Canada, Ireland, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and US.

PARTICIPANTS

465 adults admitted to hospital wards with covid-19 and increased D-dimer levels were recruited between 29 May 2020 and 12 April 2021 and were randomly assigned to therapeutic dose heparin (n=228) or prophylactic dose heparin (n=237).

INTERVENTIONS

Therapeutic dose or prophylactic dose heparin (low molecular weight or unfractionated heparin), to be continued until hospital discharge, day 28, or death.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was a composite of death, invasive mechanical ventilation, non-invasive mechanical ventilation, or admission to an intensive care unit, assessed up to 28 days. The secondary outcomes included all cause death, the composite of all cause death or any mechanical ventilation, and venous thromboembolism. Safety outcomes included major bleeding. Outcomes were blindly adjudicated.

RESULTS

The mean age of participants was 60 years; 264 (56.8%) were men and the mean body mass index was 30.3 kg/m². At 28 days, the primary composite outcome had occurred in 37/228 patients (16.2%) assigned to therapeutic heparin and 52/237 (21.9%) assigned to prophylactic heparin (odds ratio 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 1.10; P=0.12). Deaths occurred in four patients (1.8%) assigned to therapeutic heparin and 18 patients (7.6%) assigned to prophylactic heparin (0.22, 0.07 to 0.65; P=0.006). The composite of all cause death or any mechanical ventilation occurred in 23 patients (10.1%) assigned to therapeutic heparin and 38 (16.0%) assigned to prophylactic heparin (0.59, 0.34 to 1.02; P=0.06). Venous thromboembolism occurred in two patients (0.9%) assigned to therapeutic heparin and six (2.5%) assigned to prophylactic heparin (0.34, 0.07 to 1.71; P=0.19). Major bleeding occurred in two patients (0.9%) assigned to therapeutic heparin and four (1.7%) assigned to prophylactic heparin (0.52, 0.09 to 2.85; P=0.69).

CONCLUSIONS

In moderately ill patients with covid-19 and increased D-dimer levels admitted to hospital wards, therapeutic heparin was not significantly associated with a reduction in the primary outcome but the odds of death at 28 days was decreased. The risk of major bleeding appeared low in this trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04362085.

Effectiveness and safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and opioid treatment for knee and hip osteoarthritis: network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effectiveness and safety of different preparations and doses of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), opioids, and paracetamol for knee and hip osteoarthritis pain and physical function to enable effective and safe use of these drugs at their lowest possible dose.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised trials.

DATA SOURCES

Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Medline, Embase, regulatory agency websites, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to 28 June 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Randomised trials published in English with ≥100 patients per group that evaluated NSAIDs, opioids, or paracetamol (acetaminophen) to treat osteoarthritis.

OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The prespecified primary outcome was pain. Physical function and safety outcomes were also assessed.

REVIEW METHODS

Two reviewers independently extracted outcomes data and evaluated the risk of bias of included trials. Bayesian random effects models were used for network meta-analysis of all analyses. Effect estimates are comparisons between active treatments and oral placebo.

RESULTS

192 trials comprising 102 829 participants examined 90 different active preparations or doses (68 for NSAIDs, 19 for opioids, and three for paracetamol). Five oral preparations (diclofenac 150 mg/day, etoricoxib 60 and 90 mg/day, and rofecoxib 25 and 50 mg/day) had ≥99% probability of more pronounced treatment effects than the minimal clinically relevant reduction in pain. Topical diclofenac (70-81 and 140-160 mg/day) had ≥92.3% probability, and all opioids had ≤53% probability of more pronounced treatment effects than the minimal clinically relevant reduction in pain. 18.5%, 0%, and 83.3% of the oral NSAIDs, topical NSAIDs, and opioids, respectively, had an increased risk of dropouts due to adverse events. 29.8%, 0%, and 89.5% of oral NSAIDs, topical NSAIDs, and opioids, respectively, had an increased risk of any adverse event. Oxymorphone 80 mg/day had the highest risk of dropouts due to adverse events (51%) and any adverse event (88%).

CONCLUSIONS

Etoricoxib 60 mg/day and diclofenac 150 mg/day seem to be the most effective oral NSAIDs for pain and function in patients with osteoarthritis. However, these treatments are probably not appropriate for patients with comorbidities or for long term use because of the slight increase in the risk of adverse events. Additionally, an increased risk of dropping out due to adverse events was found for diclofenac 150 mg/day. Topical diclofenac 70-81 mg/day seems to be effective and generally safer because of reduced systemic exposure and lower dose, and should be considered as first line pharmacological treatment for knee osteoarthritis. The clinical benefit of opioid treatment, regardless of preparation or dose, does not outweigh the harm it might cause in patients with osteoarthritis.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO number CRD42020213656.

Feasibility and efficacy of transcatheter interatrial shunt devices for chronic heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

To assess the feasibility and efficacy of interatrial shunt devices (IASD) for the treatment of chronic heart failure (CHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

MEDLINE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception until April 2021 were searched for prospective studies investigating dedicated transcatheter IASD for the treatment of CHF. Standardised mean differences were calculated for the within-group changes before and after implantation of the IASD. The pre-defined primary outcome was change in 6-min walking distance (6MWD) from baseline to 12 months. Other outcomes were change in New York Heart Association class, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), echocardiographic and haemodynamic data, device performance and safety. Subgroup analyses were crude univariable meta-regression analyses. Six studies (five single-arm open-label studies, one sham-controlled trial) were included. In these, 226 patients underwent IASD implantation using four different devices. From baseline to 12 months, 6MWD increased by 28.1 m [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.9-45.3] with no evidence for a difference between devices (P for interaction = 0.66) and patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) >40% or ≤40% (P for interaction = 0.21). At 12 months, HRQoL improved by 17.7 points (95% CI 10.8-24.6) and pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) decreased by 2.0 mmHg (95% CI -3.6 to -0.4). There were no changes in LVEF or N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide during follow-up. Shunt patency ranged from 50% for the first-generation v-Wave to 100% for the Corvia IASD II and the second-generation v-Wave system, respectively. The summary risk of serious adverse device-related effects was 8% (95% CI 1-20) at 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Interatrial shunt device implantation in CHF is feasible and associates with improved submaximal exercise capacity (measured by 6MWD) and HRQoL, and reductions in PCWP.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors, All-Cause Mortality, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression

Background

This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in reducing the incidence of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in adults with type 2 diabetes.

Methods and Results

We conducted a Bayesian meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors with placebo. We used meta‐regression to examine the association between treatment effects and control group event rates as measures of cardiovascular baseline risk. Fifty‐three randomized controlled trials were included in our synthesis. Empagliflozin, canagliflozin, and dapagliflozin reduced the incidence of all‐cause mortality (empagliflozin: rate ratio [RR], 0.79; 95% credibility interval [CrI], 0.63–0.97; canagliflozin: RR, 0.86; 95% CrI, 0.69–1.05; dapagliflozin: RR, 0.86; 95% CrI, 0.72–1.01) and cardiovascular mortality (empagliflozin: RR, 0.78; 95% CrI, 0.61–1.00; canagliflozin: RR, 0.83; 95% CrI, 0.63–1.05; dapagliflozin: RR, 0.88; 95% CrI, 0.71–1.08), with a 90.1% to 98.7% probability for the true RR to be <1.00 for both outcomes. There was little evidence for ertugliflozin and sotagliflozin versus placebo for reducing all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality. There was no association between treatment effects for all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality and the control group event rates. There was evidence for a reduction in the incidence of heart failure for empagliflozin, canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and ertugliflozin versus placebo (probability RR <1.00 of ≥99.3%) and weaker, albeit positive, evidence for acute myocardial infarction for the first 3 agents (probability RR <1.00 of 89.0%–95.2%). There was little evidence of any agent except canagliflozin for reducing the incidence of stroke.

Conclusions

Empagliflozin, canagliflozin, and dapagliflozin reduced the incidence of all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality versus placebo. Treatment effects of sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors versus placebo do not vary by baseline risk.

Ticagrelor Monotherapy Versus Dual-Antiplatelet Therapy After PCI: An Individual Patient-Level Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to compare ticagrelor monotherapy with dual-antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents.

BACKGROUND

The role of abbreviated DAPT followed by an oral P2Y₁₂ inhibitor after PCI remains uncertain.

METHODS

Two randomized trials, including 14,628 patients undergoing PCI, comparing ticagrelor monotherapy with standard DAPT on centrally adjudicated endpoints were identified, and individual patient data were analyzed using 1-step fixed-effect models. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42019143120). The primary outcomes were the composite of Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 3 or 5 bleeding tested for superiority and, if met, the composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, or stroke at 1 year, tested for noninferiority against a margin of 1.25 on a hazard ratio (HR) scale.

RESULTS

Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 3 or 5 bleeding occurred in fewer patients with ticagrelor than DAPT (0.9% vs. 1.7%, respectively; HR: 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.41 to 0.75; p < 0.001). The composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, or stroke occurred in 231 patients (3.2%) with ticagrelor and in 254 patients (3.5%) with DAPT (HR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.10; p < 0.001 for noninferiority). Ticagrelor was associated with lower risk for all-cause (HR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.52 to 0.96; p = 0.027) and cardiovascular (HR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.99; p = 0.044) mortality. Rates of myocardial infarction (2.01% vs. 2.05%; p = 0.88), stent thrombosis (0.29% vs. 0.38%; p = 0.32), and stroke (0.47% vs. 0.36%; p = 0.30) were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Ticagrelor monotherapy was associated with a lower risk for major bleeding compared with standard DAPT, without a concomitant increase in ischemic events.

Heparin for Moderately Ill Patients with Covid-19

Background

Heparin, in addition to its anticoagulant properties, has anti-inflammatory and potential anti-viral effects, and may improve endothelial function in patients with Covid-19. Early initiation of therapeutic heparin could decrease the thrombo-inflammatory process, and reduce the risk of critical illness or death.

Methods

We randomly assigned moderately ill hospitalized ward patients admitted for Covid-19 with elevated D-dimer level to therapeutic or prophylactic heparin. The primary outcome was a composite of death, invasive mechanical ventilation, non-invasive mechanical ventilation or ICU admission. Safety outcomes included major bleeding. Analysis was by intention-to-treat.

Results

At 28 days, the primary composite outcome occurred in 37 of 228 patients (16.2%) assigned to therapeutic heparin, and 52 of 237 patients (21.9%) assigned to prophylactic heparin (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43 to 1.10; p=0.12). Four patients (1.8%) assigned to therapeutic heparin died compared with 18 patients (7.6%) assigned to prophylactic heparin (odds ratio, 0.22; 95%-CI, 0.07 to 0.65). The composite of all-cause mortality or any mechanical ventilation occurred in 23 (10.1%) in the therapeutic heparin group and 38 (16.0%) in the prophylactic heparin group (odds ratio, 0.59; 95%-CI, 0.34 to 1.02). Major bleeding occurred in 2 patients (0.9%) with therapeutic heparin and 4 patients (1.7%) with prophylactic heparin (odds ratio, 0.52; 95%-CI, 0.09 to 2.85).

Conclusions

In moderately ill ward patients with Covid-19 and elevated D-dimer level, therapeutic heparin did not significantly reduce the primary outcome but decreased the odds of death at 28 days. Trial registration numbers: NCT04362085 ; NCT04444700.

Most published meta-regression analyses based on aggregate data suffer from methodological pitfalls: a meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Due to clinical and methodological diversity, clinical studies included in meta-analyses often differ in ways that lead to differences in treatment effects across studies. Meta-regression analysis is generally recommended to explore associations between study-level characteristics and treatment effect, however, three key pitfalls of meta-regression may lead to invalid conclusions. Our aims were to determine the frequency of these three pitfalls of meta-regression analyses, examine characteristics associated with the occurrence of these pitfalls, and explore changes between 2002 and 2012.

METHODS

A meta-epidemiological study of studies including aggregate data meta-regression analysis in the years 2002 and 2012. We assessed the prevalence of meta-regression analyses with at least 1 of 3 pitfalls: ecological fallacy, overfitting, and inappropriate methods to regress treatment effects against the risk of the analysed outcome. We used logistic regression to investigate study characteristics associated with pitfalls and examined differences between 2002 and 2012.

RESULTS

Our search yielded 580 studies with meta-analyses, of which 81 included meta-regression analyses with aggregated data. 57 meta-regression analyses were found to contain at least one pitfall (70%): 53 were susceptible to ecological fallacy (65%), 14 had a risk of overfitting (17%), and 5 inappropriately regressed treatment effects against the risk of the analysed outcome (6%). We found no difference in the prevalence of meta-regression analyses with methodological pitfalls between 2002 and 2012, nor any study-level characteristic that was clearly associated with the occurrence of any of the pitfalls.

CONCLUSION

The majority of meta-regression analyses based on aggregate data contain methodological pitfalls that may result in misleading findings.

Randomized trials of invasive cardiovascular interventions that include a placebo control: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

The difference in the benefit of invasive cardiovascular interventions compared with placebo controls has not been analysed systematically.

METHODS AND RESULTS

MEDLINE and Web of Science were searched through 29 March 2020. Randomized, placebo-controlled trials of invasive cardiovascular interventions (including catheter-based interventions and pacemaker-like devices) investigating predefined primary outcomes were included. Standardized mean differences (SMD) and odds ratios were calculated for continuous and dichotomous outcomes, respectively. Meta-regression analyses were performed to assess whether estimates of treatment effects were associated with methodological characteristics of trials. Thirty trials, including 4102 patients, were analysed. The overall risk of bias was judged to be low in only 43% of the trials. Ten trials (33%) demonstrated statistically significant superiority of invasive interventions over placebo controls for the respective predefined primary outcomes. In almost half of the 16 trials investigating continuous predefined primary outcomes, the SMD between the active and placebo procedure indicated a small (n = 4) to moderate (n = 3) treatment effect of active treatment over placebo. In contrast, one trial indicated a small treatment effect in favour of the placebo procedure. In the remaining trials, there was no relevant treatment effect of active treatment over placebo. In trials with a protocol-mandated stable and symmetrical use of co-interventions, the superiority of active procedures vs. invasive placebo procedures was significantly larger as compared with trials with frequent or unbalanced changes in co-interventions (P for interaction 0.027).

CONCLUSIONS

The additional treatment effect of invasive cardiovascular interventions compared with placebo controls was small in most trials.

Programming Interval Training to Optimize Time-Trial Performance: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Interval training has become an essential component of endurance training programs because it can facilitate a substantial improvement in endurance sport performance. Two forms of interval training that are commonly used to improve endurance sport performance are high-intensity interval training (HIIT) and sprint interval training (SIT). Despite extensive research, there is no consensus concerning the optimal method to manipulate the interval training programming variables to maximize endurance performance for differing individuals.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this manuscript was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of interval training studies to determine the influence that individual characteristics and training variables have on time-trial (TT) performance.

DATA SOURCES

SPORTDiscus and Medline with Full Text were explored to conduct a systematic literature search.

STUDY SELECTION

The following criteria were used to select studies appropriate for the review: 1. the studies were prospective in nature; 2. included individuals between the ages of 18 and 65 years; 3. included an interval training (HIIT or SIT) program at least 2 weeks in duration; 4. included a TT test that required participants to complete a set distance; 5. and programmed HIIT by power or velocity.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria for the quantitative analysis with a total of 67 separate groups. The participants included males (n = 400) and females (n = 91) with a mean group age of 25 (range 19-45) years and mean [Formula: see text] of 52 (range 32-70) mL·kg^-1·min^-1. The training status of the participants comprised of inactive (n = 75), active (n = 146) and trained (n = 258) individuals. Training status played a significant role in improvements in TT performance with trained individuals only seeing improvements of approximately 2% whereas individuals of lower training status demonstrated improvements as high as 6%. The change in TT performance with HIIT depended on the duration but not the intensity of the interval work-bout. There was a dose-response relationship with the number of HIIT sessions, training weeks and total work with changes in TT performance. However, the dose-response was not present with SIT.

CONCLUSION

Optimization of interval training programs to produce TT performance improvements should be done according to training status. Our analysis suggests that increasing interval training dose beyond minimal requirements may not augment the training response. In addition, optimal dosing differs between high intensity and sprint interval programs.

Coagulopathy of hospitalised COVID-19: A Pragmatic Randomised Controlled Trial of Therapeutic Anticoagulation versus Standard Care as a Rapid Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic (RAPID COVID COAG - RAPID Trial): A structured summary of a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Objectives

To determine the effect of therapeutic anticoagulation, with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) or unfractionated heparin (UFH, high dose nomogram), compared to standard care in hospitalized patients admitted for COVID-19 with an elevated D-dimer on the composite outcome of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, non-invasive positive pressure ventilation, invasive mechanical ventilation or death up to 28 days.

Trial design

Open-label, parallel, 1:1, phase 3, 2-arm randomized controlled trial

Participants

The study population includes hospitalized adults admitted for COVID-19 prior to the development of critical illness. Excluded individuals are those where the bleeding risk or risk of transfusion would generally be considered unacceptable, those already therapeutically anticoagulated and those who have already have any component of the primary composite outcome. Participants are recruited from hospital sites in Brazil, Canada, Ireland, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and the United States of America.

The inclusion criteria are:

Laboratory confirmed COVID-19 (diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 via reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction as per the World Health Organization protocol or by nucleic acid based isothermal amplification) prior to hospital admission OR within first 5 days (i.e. 120 hours) after hospital admission;

Admitted to hospital for COVID-19;

One D-dimer value above the upper limit of normal (ULN) (within 5 days (i.e. 120 hours) of hospital admission) AND EITHER:

D-Dimer ≥2 times ULN OR

D-Dimer above ULN and Oxygen saturation ≤ 93% on room air;

> 18 years of age;

Informed consent from the patient (or legally authorized substitute decision maker).

The exclusion criteria are:

pregnancy;

hemoglobin <80 g/L in the last 72 hours;

platelet count <50 x 10⁹/L in the last 72 hours;

known fibrinogen <1.5 g/L (if testing deemed clinically indicated by the treating physician prior to the initiation of anticoagulation);

known INR >1.8 (if testing deemed clinically indicated by the treating physician prior to the initiation of anticoagulation);

patient already prescribed intermediate dosing of LMWH that cannot be changed (determination of what constitutes an intermediate dose is to be at the discretion of the treating clinician taking the local institutional thromboprophylaxis protocol for high risk patients into consideration);

patient already prescribed therapeutic anticoagulation at the time of screening [low or high dose nomogram UFH, LMWH, warfarin, direct oral anticoagulant (any dose of dabigatran, apixaban, rivaroxaban, edoxaban)];

patient prescribed dual antiplatelet therapy, when one of the agents cannot be stopped safely;

known bleeding within the last 30 days requiring emergency room presentation or hospitalization;

known history of a bleeding disorder of an inherited or active acquired bleeding disorder;

known history of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia;

known allergy to UFH or LMWH;

admitted to the intensive care unit at the time of screening;

treated with non-invasive positive pressure ventilation or invasive mechanical ventilation at the time of screening;

Imminent death according to the judgement of the most responsible physician;

enrollment in another clinical trial of antithrombotic therapy involving hospitalized patients.

Intervention and comparator

Intervention: Therapeutic dose of LMWH (dalteparin, enoxaparin, tinzaparin) or high dose nomogram of UFH. The choice of LMWH versus UFH will be at the clinician’s discretion and dependent on local institutional supply.

Comparator: Standard care [thromboprophylactic doses of LMWH (dalteparin, enoxaparin, tinzaparin, fondaparinux)] or UFH. Administration of LMWH, UFH or fondaparinux at thromboprophylactic doses for acutely ill hospitalized medical patients, in the absence of contraindication, is generally considered standard care.

Main outcomes

The primary composite outcome of ICU admission, non-invasive positive pressure ventilation, invasive mechanical ventilation or death at 28 days.

Secondary outcomes include (evaluated up to day 28):

All-cause death

Composite of ICU admission or all-cause death

Composite of mechanical ventilation or all-cause death

Major bleeding as defined by the ISTH Scientific and Standardization Committee (ISTH-SSC) recommendation;

Red blood cell transfusion (>1 unit);

Transfusion of platelets, frozen plasma, prothrombin complex concentrate, cryoprecipitate and/or fibrinogen concentrate;

Renal replacement therapy;

Hospital-free days alive;

ICU-free days alive;

Ventilator-free days alive;

Organ support-free days alive;

Venous thromboembolism (defined as symptomatic or incidental, suspected or confirmed via diagnostic imaging and/or electrocardiogram where appropriate);

Arterial thromboembolism (defined as suspected or confirmed via diagnostic imaging and/or electrocardiogram where appropriate);

Heparin induced thrombocytopenia;

Trajectories of COVID-19 disease-related coagulation and inflammatory biomarkers.

Randomisation

Randomisation will be stratified by site and age (>65 versus ≤65 years) using a 1:1 computer-generated random allocation sequence with variable block sizes. Randomization will occur within the first 5 days (i.e. 120 hours) of participant hospital admission. However, it is recommended that randomization occurs as early as possible after hospital admission. Central randomization using an interactive web response system will ensure allocation concealment.

Blinding (masking)

No blinding involved. This is an open-label trial.

Numbers to be randomised (sample size)

462 patients (231 per group) are needed to detect a 15% risk difference, from 50% in the control group to 35% in the experimental group, with power of 90% at a two-sided alpha of 0.05.

Trial Status

Protocol Version Number 1.4. Recruitment began on May 11^th, 2020. Recruitment is expected to be completed March 2022. Recruitment is ongoing.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04362085

Date of Trial Registration: April 24, 2020

Full protocol

The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest of expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-021-05076-0.

Influence of Sponsorship Bias on Treatment Effect Size Estimates in Randomized Trials of Oral Health Interventions: A Meta-epidemiological Study

BACKGROUND

In this meta-epidemiological study, we aimed to examine associations between treatment effect size estimates and sponsorship bias in oral health randomized clinical trials.

METHODS

We selected oral health related meta-analyses that included a minimum of five randomized controlled trials. We extracted data, in duplicate, related to influence of sponsorship bias. We quantified the extent of bias associated with influence of sponsorship on the magnitude of effect size estimates of continuous variables using a two-level meta-meta-analytic approach with random-effects models to allow for intra- and inter-meta-analysis heterogeneity.

RESULTS

We initially identified 540 randomized trials included in 64 meta-analyses. Risk of sponsorship bias was judged as being "unclear" in 72.8% (n = 393) of the trials, while it was assessed as "low" in 16.7% (n = 90) and as "high" in 10.6% (n = 57) of the trials. Using a meta-epidemiological analysis (37 meta-analyses, including 328 trials that analyzed 85,934 patients), we identified statistically significant larger treatment effect size estimates in trials that had "high or unclear" risk of sponsorship bias (difference in treatment effect size estimates=0.10; 95% confidence intervals: 0.02 to 0.19) than in trials that had "low" risk of sponsorship bias.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified significant differences in treatment effect size estimates between dental trials based on sponsorship bias. Treatment effect size estimates were 0.10 larger in trials with "high or unclear" risk of sponsorship bias.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

Clinicians should have an adequate knowledge of sponsorship bias in a clinical trial and be able to estimate the degree to which the conclusions of a systematic review are synthesized and interpreted, based on trials with low risk of sponsorship bias.

Visual Analogue Scale has higher assay sensitivity than WOMAC pain in detecting between-group differences in treatment effects: a meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE

To compare assay sensitivity of the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for global osteoarthritis pain and the Western Ontario and McMaster University (WOMAC) pain subscale, and the associated between-trial heterogeneity in effect sizes (ES).

DESIGN

We included trials with placebo, sham or non-intervention control that included at least 100 patients with hip or knee osteoarthritis per arm, reporting both VAS and WOMAC pain scores. ES were calculated as between-group difference in means divided by the pooled standard deviation and compared using a paired t-test. ES and τ² as a measure of between-trial heterogeneity were combined using random-effects meta-regression with robust variance estimation to account for the correlation of data within trials and meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight trials with 44 randomized comparisons were included. In 28 comparisons (64%), ES from VAS favoured the intervention more than those from WOMAC pain (P = 0.003). Twenty-six p-values (59%) were smaller according to VAS (P = 0.008). The 44 comparisons contributed to 12 meta-analyses. Eleven meta-analyses (92%) showed larger benefits of interventions according to VAS, with a combined overall difference in ES of -0.08 (95% CI -0.14 to -0.02). τ² was similar for VAS and WOMAC pain (difference in τ², -0.003, 95% CI -0.009 to 0.004).

CONCLUSION

The VAS for global pain had slightly higher assay sensitivity at trial and meta-analysis levels than the WOMAC pain subscale without relevant increase in between-trial heterogeneity.

Natural History of Asymptomatic Severe Aortic Stenosis and the Association of Early Intervention With Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Whether intervention should be performed in patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis (AS) remains debated.

Objective

To meta-analyze the natural history of asymptomatic severe AS and examine the association of early intervention with survival.

Data Sources

PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched from inception to February 1, 2020.

Study Selection

Observational studies of adult patients with asymptomatic severe AS.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Two investigators independently extracted study and patient characteristics, follow-up time, events, and prognostic indicators of events. Random-effects models were used to derive pooled estimates.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The meta-analysis on natural history was performed on the primary end point of all-cause death occurring during a conservative treatment period, with secondary end points consisting of cardiac death, death due to heart failure, sudden death, development of symptoms, development of an indication for aortic valve intervention, and aortic valve intervention. The primary end point for the meta-analysis of early intervention vs a conservative strategy was all-cause death during long-term follow-up. Finally, meta-analysis was performed on the association of prognostic indicators with the composite of death or aortic valve intervention found in multivariable models.

Results

A total of 29 studies with 4075 patients with 11 901 years of follow-up were included. Pooled rates per 100 patients per year were 4.8 (95% CI, 3.6-6.4) for all-cause death, 3.0 (95% CI, 2.2-4.1) for cardiac death, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.3-3.1) for death due to heart failure, 1.1 (95% CI, 0.6-2.1) for sudden death, 18.1 (95% CI, 12.8-25.4) for an indication for aortic valve intervention, 18.5 (95% CI, 13.4-25.5) for development of symptoms, and 19.2 (95% CI, 15.5-23.8) for aortic valve intervention. Early intervention was associated with a significant reduction in long-term mortality (hazard ratio, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.25-0.58). Factors associated with worse prognosis were severity of AS, low-flow AS, left ventricular damage, and atherosclerotic risk factors.

Conclusions and Relevance

Data from observational studies and a recent randomized clinical trial suggest that many patients with asymptomatic severe AS develop an indication for aortic valve intervention, and their deaths are mostly cardiac but not only sudden. Other end points besides sudden death should be considered during the decision to perform early intervention that are associated with improved survival.

The effects of intravenous iron supplementation on fatigue and general health in non-anemic blood donors with iron deficiency: a randomized placebo-controlled superiority trial

We investigated whether intravenous iron supplementation improves fatigue and general health in non-anemic repeat adult blood donors with iron deficiency (ferritin ≤ 50 µg/L). Of 1,487 potentially eligible participants, 203 were randomly assigned to a single intravenous dose of 800 mg iron-carboxymaltose and 202 to placebo; 393 participants completed the trial. At 6 to 8 weeks after intervention, self-rated mean fatigue scores (numeric rating scale from 1-10, primary outcome) were 3.9 ± 1.8 in the iron supplementation group and 4.0 ± 2.2 in the placebo group, showing no group difference (p = 0.819). Pre-specified subgroup analyses of gender, ferritin < 25 µg/L and fatigue ≥ 4 points, as well as exploratory analyses of lower ferritin cut-offs did not reveal any between-group differences. In terms of secondary outcomes, the mean differences were 114.2 µg/L for ferritin (95% CI 103.1-125.3) and 5.7 g/L for hemoglobin (95% CI 4.3-7.2) with significantly higher values in the iron supplementation group. No group differences were observed for different measures of general well-being and other clinical and safety outcomes. Intravenous iron supplementation compared with placebo resulted in increase of ferritin and hemoglobin levels in repeat blood donors with low iron stores, yet had no effect on fatigue and general well-being.

Timing of Initiation of Renal-Replacement Therapy in Acute Kidney Injury

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury is common in critically ill patients, many of whom receive renal-replacement therapy. However, the most effective timing for the initiation of such therapy remains uncertain.

METHODS

We conducted a multinational, randomized, controlled trial involving critically ill patients with severe acute kidney injury. Patients were randomly assigned to receive an accelerated strategy of renal-replacement therapy (in which therapy was initiated within 12 hours after the patient had met eligibility criteria) or a standard strategy (in which renal-replacement therapy was discouraged unless conventional indications developed or acute kidney injury persisted for >72 hours). The primary outcome was death from any cause at 90 days.

RESULTS

Of the 3019 patients who had undergone randomization, 2927 (97.0%) were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis (1465 in the accelerated-strategy group and 1462 in the standard-strategy group). Of these patients, renal-replacement therapy was performed in 1418 (96.8%) in the accelerated-strategy group and in 903 (61.8%) in the standard-strategy group. At 90 days, death had occurred in 643 patients (43.9%) in the accelerated-strategy group and in 639 (43.7%) in the standard-strategy group (relative risk, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93 to 1.09; P = 0.92). Among survivors at 90 days, continued dependence on renal-replacement therapy was confirmed in 85 of 814 patients (10.4%) in the accelerated-strategy group and in 49 of 815 patients (6.0%) in the standard-strategy group (relative risk, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.43). Adverse events occurred in 346 of 1503 patients (23.0%) in the accelerated-strategy group and in 245 of 1489 patients (16.5%) in the standard-strategy group (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Among critically ill patients with acute kidney injury, an accelerated renal-replacement strategy was not associated with a lower risk of death at 90 days than a standard strategy. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; STARRT-AKI ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02568722.).

Bias and Loss to Follow-Up in Cardiovascular Randomized Trials: A Systematic Review

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in randomized controlled trials. However, its potential impact on primary outcomes from cardiovascular randomized controlled trials is not known. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42019121959) for randomized controlled trials published in 8 leading journals over 5 years from January 2014 to December 2018. Extent, reporting, and handling of LTFU data were recorded, and the proportion of a trial's primary outcome results that lose statistical significance was calculated after making plausible assumptions for the intervention and control arms. These assumptions could drive differential treatment effects between the groups considering relative event incidence between LTFU participants and those included in the primary outcome. We identified 117 randomized controlled trials of which 91 (78%) trials reported LTFU, 23 (20%) reported no LTFU, and 3 (3%) trials did not report on whether LTFU occurred. The median percentage of study participants lost to follow-up was 2% (interquartile range, 0.33%-5.3%). Only 10 trials (9%) had a low cluster of risk factors for impairment in trial quality. The percentage of trials losing statistical significance varied from 2% when the relative event incidence for LTFU between the randomized groups was 1 for the intervention arm and 1.5 for the control arm to 16% when the relative event incidence was 3 for the intervention arm and 1 for the control arm. Conclusions Almost 1 in 6 (16%) cardiovascular randomized trials published in leading journals may have a change in the primary outcome if plausible assumptions are made about differential event rates of participants lost to follow up. There is scope for improvement arising from LTFU in randomized trials in cardiovascular medicine. Registration URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero; Unique identifier: CRD42019121959.

Association of Noninvasive Oxygenation Strategies With All-Cause Mortality in Adults With Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Treatment with noninvasive oxygenation strategies such as noninvasive ventilation and high-flow nasal oxygen may be more effective than standard oxygen therapy alone in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the association of noninvasive oxygenation strategies with mortality and endotracheal intubation in adults with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure.

DATA SOURCES

The following bibliographic databases were searched from inception until April 2020: MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, Web of Science, and LILACS. No limits were applied to language, publication year, sex, or race.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized clinical trials enrolling adult participants with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure comparing high-flow nasal oxygen, face mask noninvasive ventilation, helmet noninvasive ventilation, or standard oxygen therapy.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers independently extracted individual study data and evaluated studies for risk of bias using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Network meta-analyses using a bayesian framework to derive risk ratios (RRs) and risk differences along with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) were conducted. GRADE methodology was used to rate the certainty in findings.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was all-cause mortality up to 90 days. A secondary outcome was endotracheal intubation up to 30 days.

RESULTS

Twenty-five randomized clinical trials (3804 participants) were included. Compared with standard oxygen, treatment with helmet noninvasive ventilation (RR, 0.40 [95% CrI, 0.24-0.63]; absolute risk difference, -0.19 [95% CrI, -0.37 to -0.09]; low certainty) and face mask noninvasive ventilation (RR, 0.83 [95% CrI, 0.68-0.99]; absolute risk difference, -0.06 [95% CrI, -0.15 to -0.01]; moderate certainty) were associated with a lower risk of mortality (21 studies [3370 patients]). Helmet noninvasive ventilation (RR, 0.26 [95% CrI, 0.14-0.46]; absolute risk difference, -0.32 [95% CrI, -0.60 to -0.16]; low certainty), face mask noninvasive ventilation (RR, 0.76 [95% CrI, 0.62-0.90]; absolute risk difference, -0.12 [95% CrI, -0.25 to -0.05]; moderate certainty) and high-flow nasal oxygen (RR, 0.76 [95% CrI, 0.55-0.99]; absolute risk difference, -0.11 [95% CrI, -0.27 to -0.01]; moderate certainty) were associated with lower risk of endotracheal intubation (25 studies [3804 patients]). The risk of bias due to lack of blinding for intubation was deemed high.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this network meta-analysis of trials of adult patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, treatment with noninvasive oxygenation strategies compared with standard oxygen therapy was associated with lower risk of death. Further research is needed to better understand the relative benefits of each strategy.

The Impact of Levothyroxine on Cardiac Function in Older Adults With Mild Subclinical Hypothyroidism: A Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with heart failure, but only small trials assessed whether treatment with levothyroxine has an impact on cardiac function.

METHODS

In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, trial nested within the TRUST trial, Swiss participants ages ≥65 years with subclinical hypothyroidism (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH] 4.60-19.99 mIU/L; free thyroxine level within reference range) were randomized to levothyroxine (starting dose of 50 µg daily) to achieve TSH normalization or placebo. The primary outcomes were the left ventricular ejection fraction for systolic function and the ratio between mitral peak velocity of early filling to early diastolic mitral annular velocity (E/e' ratio) for diastolic function. Secondary outcomes included e' lateral/septal, left atrial volume index, and systolic pulmonary artery pressure.

RESULTS

A total of 185 participants (mean age 74.1 years, 47% women) underwent echocardiography at the end of the trial. After a median treatment duration of 18.4 months, the mean TSH decreased from 6.35 mIU/L to 3.55 mIU/L with levothyroxine (n = 96), and it remained elevated at 5.29 mIU/L with placebo (n = 89). The adjusted between-group difference was not significant for the mean left ventricular ejection fraction (62.7% vs 62.5%, difference = 0.4%, 95% confidence interval -1.8% to 2.5%, P = 0.72) and the E/e' ratio (10.6 vs 10.1, difference 0.4, 95% confidence interval -0.7 to 1.4, P = 0.47). No differences were found for the secondary diastolic function parameters or for interaction according to sex, baseline TSH, preexisting heart failure, and treatment duration (P value >0.05).

CONCLUSION

Systolic and diastolic heart function did not differ after treatment with levothyroxine compared with placebo in older adults with mild subclinical hypothyroidism.

Effect of Biomechanical Footwear on Knee Pain in People With Knee Osteoarthritis: The BIOTOK Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Individually calibrated biomechanical footwear therapy may improve pain and physical function in people with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis, but the benefits of this therapy are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of a biomechanical footwear therapy vs control footwear over 24 weeks of follow-up.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized clinical trial conducted at a Swiss university hospital. Participants (N = 220) with symptomatic, radiologically confirmed knee osteoarthritis were recruited between April 20, 2015, and January 10, 2017. The last participant visit occurred on August 15, 2017.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomized to biomechanical footwear involving shoes with individually adjustable external convex pods attached to the outsole (n = 111) or to control footwear (n = 109) that had visible outsole pods that were not adjustable and did not create a convex walking surface.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was knee pain at 24 weeks of follow-up assessed with the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain subscore standardized to range from 0 (no symptoms) to 10 (extreme symptoms). The secondary outcomes included WOMAC physical function and stiffness subscores and the WOMAC global score, all ranging from 0 (no symptoms) to 10 (extreme symptoms) at 24 weeks of follow-up, and serious adverse events.

RESULTS

Among the 220 randomized participants (mean age, 65.2 years [SD, 9.3 years]; 104 women [47.3%]), 219 received the allocated treatment and 213 (96.8%) completed follow-up. At 24 weeks of follow-up, the mean standardized WOMAC pain subscore improved from 4.3 to 1.3 in the biomechanical footwear group and from 4.0 to 2.6 in the control footwear group (between-group difference in scores at 24 weeks of follow-up, -1.3 [95% CI, -1.8 to -0.9]; P < .001). The results were consistent for WOMAC physical function subscore (between-group difference, -1.1 [95% CI, -1.5 to -0.7]), WOMAC stiffness subscore (between-group difference, -1.4 [95% CI, -1.9 to -0.9]), and WOMAC global score (between-group difference, -1.2 [95% CI, -1.6 to -0.8]) at 24 weeks of follow-up. Three serious adverse events occurred in the biomechanical footwear group compared with 9 in the control footwear group (2.7% vs 8.3%, respectively); none were related to treatment.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among participants with knee pain from osteoarthritis, use of biomechanical footwear compared with control footwear resulted in an improvement in pain at 24 weeks of follow-up that was statistically significant but of uncertain clinical importance. Further research would be needed to assess long-term efficacy and safety, as well as replication, before reaching conclusions about the clinical value of this device.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02363712.

Impact of climate and public health interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether seasonal changes, school closures or other public health interventions will result in a slowdown of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to determine whether epidemic growth is globally associated with climate or public health interventions intended to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study of all 144 geopolitical areas worldwide (375 609 cases) with at least 10 COVID-19 cases and local transmission by Mar. 20, 2020, excluding China, South Korea, Iran and Italy. Using weighted random-effects regression, we determined the association between epidemic growth (expressed as ratios of rate ratios [RRR] comparing cumulative counts of COVID-19 cases on Mar. 27, 2020, with cumulative counts on Mar. 20, 2020) and latitude, temperature, humidity, school closures, restrictions of mass gatherings, and measures of social distancing during an exposure period 14 days previously (Mar. 7 to 13, 2020).

RESULTS

In univariate analyses, there were no associations of epidemic growth with latitude and temperature, but weak negative associations with relative humidity (RRR per 10% 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-0.96) and absolute humidity (RRR per 5 g/m³ 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-0.99). Strong associations were found for restrictions of mass gatherings (RRR 0.65, 95% CI 0.53-0.79), school closures (RRR 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.78) and measures of social distancing (RRR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.85). In a multivariable model, there was a strong association with the number of implemented public health interventions (p for trend = 0.001), whereas the association with absolute humidity was no longer significant.

INTERPRETATION

Epidemic growth of COVID-19 was not associated with latitude and temperature, but may be associated weakly with relative or absolute humidity. Conversely, public health interventions were strongly associated with reduced epidemic growth.

Noninvasive oxygenation strategies in adult patients with acute respiratory failure: a protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute hypoxemic respiratory failure is one of the leading causes of intensive care unit admission and is associated with high mortality. Noninvasive oxygenation strategies such as high-flow nasal cannula, standard oxygen therapy, and noninvasive ventilation (delivered by either face mask or helmet interface) are widely available interventions applied in these patients. It remains unclear which of these interventions are more effective in decreasing rates of invasive mechanical ventilation and mortality. The primary objective of this network meta-analysis is to summarize the evidence and compare the effect of noninvasive oxygenation strategies on mortality and need for invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure.

METHODS

We will search key databases for randomized controlled trials assessing the effect of noninvasive oxygenation strategies in adult patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. We will exclude studies in which the primary focus is either acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or cardiogenic pulmonary edema. The primary outcome will be all-cause mortality (longest available up to 90 days). The secondary outcomes will be receipt of invasive mechanical ventilation (longest available up to 30 days). We will assess the risk of bias for each of the outcomes using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Bayesian network meta-analyses will be conducted to obtain pooled estimates of head-to-head comparisons. We will report pairwise and network meta-analysis treatment effect estimates as risk ratios and 95% credible intervals. Subgroup analyses will be conducted examining key populations including immunocompromised hosts. Sensitivity analyses will be conducted by excluding those studies with high risk of bias and different etiologies of acute respiratory failure. We will assess certainty in effect estimates using GRADE methodology.

DISCUSSION

This study will help to guide clinical decision-making when caring for adult patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure and improve our understanding of the limitations of the available literature assessing noninvasive oxygenation strategies in acute hypoxemic respiratory failure.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42019121755.

Comparison of dietary macronutrient patterns of 14 popular named dietary programmes for weight and cardiovascular risk factor reduction in adults: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised trials

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relative effectiveness of dietary macronutrient patterns and popular named diet programmes for weight loss and cardiovascular risk factor improvement among adults who are overweight or obese.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised trials.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, CINAHL, AMED, and CENTRAL from database inception until September 2018, reference lists of eligible trials, and related reviews.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomised trials that enrolled adults (≥18 years) who were overweight (body mass index 25-29) or obese (≥30) to a popular named diet or an alternative diet.

OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Change in body weight, low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and C reactive protein at the six and 12 month follow-up.

REVIEW METHODS

Two reviewers independently extracted data on study participants, interventions, and outcomes and assessed risk of bias, and the certainty of evidence using the GRADE (grading of recommendations, assessment, development, and evaluation) approach. A bayesian framework informed a series of random effects network meta-analyses to estimate the relative effectiveness of the diets.

RESULTS

121 eligible trials with 21 942 patients were included and reported on 14 named diets and three control diets. Compared with usual diet, low carbohydrate and low fat diets had a similar effect at six months on weight loss (4.63 v 4.37 kg, both moderate certainty) and reduction in systolic blood pressure (5.14 mm Hg, moderate certainty v 5.05 mm Hg, low certainty) and diastolic blood pressure (3.21 v 2.85 mm Hg, both low certainty). Moderate macronutrient diets resulted in slightly less weight loss and blood pressure reductions. Low carbohydrate diets had less effect than low fat diets and moderate macronutrient diets on reduction in LDL cholesterol (1.01 mg/dL, low certainty v 7.08 mg/dL, moderate certainty v 5.22 mg/dL, moderate certainty, respectively) but an increase in HDL cholesterol (2.31 mg/dL, low certainty), whereas low fat (-1.88 mg/dL, moderate certainty) and moderate macronutrient (-0.89 mg/dL, moderate certainty) did not. Among popular named diets, those with the largest effect on weight reduction and blood pressure in comparison with usual diet were Atkins (weight 5.5 kg, systolic blood pressure 5.1 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure 3.3 mm Hg), DASH (3.6 kg, 4.7 mm Hg, 2.9 mm Hg, respectively), and Zone (4.1 kg, 3.5 mm Hg, 2.3 mm Hg, respectively) at six months (all moderate certainty). No diets significantly improved levels of HDL cholesterol or C reactive protein at six months. Overall, weight loss diminished at 12 months among all macronutrient patterns and popular named diets, while the benefits for cardiovascular risk factors of all interventions, except the Mediterranean diet, essentially disappeared.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate certainty evidence shows that most macronutrient diets, over six months, result in modest weight loss and substantial improvements in cardiovascular risk factors, particularly blood pressure. At 12 months the effects on weight reduction and improvements in cardiovascular risk factors largely disappear.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42015027929.

A comparison of the statistical performance of different meta-analysis models for the synthesis of subgroup effects from randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND

When investigating subgroup effects in meta-analysis, it is unclear whether accounting in meta-regression for between-trial variation in treatment effects, but not between-trial variation in treatment interaction effects when such effects are present, leads to biased estimates, coverage problems, or wrong standard errors, and whether the use of aggregate data (AD) or individual-patient-data (IPD) influences this assessment.

METHODS

Seven different models were compared in a simulation study. Models differed regarding the use of AD or IPD, whether they accounted for between-trial variation in interaction effects, and whether they minimized the risk of ecological fallacy.

RESULTS

Models that used IPD and that allowed for between-trial variation of the interaction effect had less bias, better coverage, and more accurate standard errors than models that used AD or ignored this variation. The main factor influencing the performance of models was whether they used IPD or AD. The model that used AD had a considerably worse performance than all models that used IPD, especially when a low number of trials was included in the analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that IPD models that allow for the between-trial variation in interaction effects should be given preference whenever investigating subgroup effects within a meta-analysis.

Percutaneous coronary intervention versus coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with three-vessel or left main coronary artery disease: 10-year follow-up of the multicentre randomised controlled SYNTAX trial

BACKGROUND

The Synergy between PCI with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial was a non-inferiority trial that compared percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using first-generation paclitaxel-eluting stents with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with de-novo three-vessel and left main coronary artery disease, and reported results up to 5 years. We now report 10-year all-cause death results.

METHODS

The SYNTAX Extended Survival (SYNTAXES) study is an investigator-driven extension of follow-up of a multicentre, randomised controlled trial done in 85 hospitals across 18 North American and European countries. Patients with de-novo three-vessel and left main coronary artery disease were randomly assigned (1:1) to the PCI group or CABG group. Patients with a history of PCI or CABG, acute myocardial infarction, or an indication for concomitant cardiac surgery were excluded. The primary endpoint of the SYNTAXES study was 10-year all-cause death, which was assessed according to the intention-to-treat principle. Prespecified subgroup analyses were performed according to the presence or absence of left main coronary artery disease and diabetes, and according to coronary complexity defined by core laboratory SYNTAX score tertiles. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03417050.

FINDINGS

From March, 2005, to April, 2007, 1800 patients were randomly assigned to the PCI (n=903) or CABG (n=897) group. Vital status information at 10 years was complete for 841 (93%) patients in the PCI group and 848 (95%) patients in the CABG group. At 10 years, 248 (28%) patients had died after PCI and 212 (24%) after CABG (hazard ratio 1·19 [95% CI 0·99-1·43], p=0·066). Among patients with three-vessel disease, 153 (28%) of 546 had died after PCI versus 114 (21%) of 549 after CABG (hazard ratio 1·42 [95% CI 1·11-1·81]), and among patients with left main coronary artery disease, 95 (27%) of 357 had died after PCI versus 98 (28%) of 348 after CABG (0·92 [0·69-1·22], p_interaction=0·023). There was no treatment-by-subgroup interaction with diabetes (p_interaction=0·60) and no linear trend across SYNTAX score tertiles (p_trend=0·20).

INTERPRETATION

At 10 years, no significant difference existed in all-cause death between PCI using first-generation paclitaxel-eluting stents and CABG. However, CABG provided a significant survival benefit in patients with three-vessel disease, but not in patients with left main coronary artery disease.

FUNDING

German Foundation of Heart Research (SYNTAXES study, 5-10-year follow-up) and Boston Scientific Corporation (SYNTAX study, 0-5-year follow-up).

One in seven Swiss physicians has left patient care - results from a national cohort study from 1980-2009

AIMS OF THE STUDY

Physician shortage is problematic, but the percentage of physicians who left patient care in Switzerland is unclear. We set out to describe this percentage and determine whether gender or language region was associated with leaving patient care.

METHODS

We analysed the National Registry (Medreg) of all physicians who graduated between 1980 and 2009 in Switzerland. Based on the last known working status noted in Medreg, physicians were classified as &ldquo;probably involved in patient care&rdquo; or &ldquo;potentially left patient care&rdquo;. We drew an unrestricted random sample of 250 from each category. We searched professional directories / social media to classify each sample. Those with undetermined status received a questionnaire that asked their working status. We quantified the percentage of physicians who left patient care and used Poisson and Cox regression to determine rates and the association of leaving patient care with gender, language region, and year of graduation.

RESULTS

We identified 23,112 living physicians in Medreg in 2015. Of these, 18,406 (79.6%) were probably involved in patient care and 4706 (20.4%) had potentially left patient care. In the random sample of 250 physicians probably involved in patient care, 237 were involved in patient care, 11 had left and the status of 2 was undetermined (0.8%). In the random sample of 250 physicians who had potentially left patient care, 109 were involved in patient care, 109 had left, and the status of 32 was undetermined (12.8%). We estimated that 13.6% of physicians had left patient care (95% confidence interval [CI] 11.1&ndash;16.1%). According to the most realistic scenario, the rate of physicians who had left patient care was 1.2 per 100 physicians/year (95% CI 0.9&ndash;1.6) for those who had graduated between 1980 and 1994, and 1.8 per 100 physicians/year (95% CI 1.4&ndash;2.3) for those who graduated between 1995 and 2009 (adjusted hazard ratio 1.74, 95% CI 1.12&ndash;2.71). There was no evidence that the risk of leaving patient care was associated with gender or language region.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one in seven physicians in Switzerland who graduated between 1980 and 2009 left patient care. Leaving patient care was not associated with gender, but the probability of leaving patient care was increased considerably in physicians who graduated more recently. Interventions that aim at keeping physicians in the work force and encourage their return to practice are sorely needed.

Rituximab or Cyclosporine in the Treatment of Membranous Nephropathy

BACKGROUND

B-cell anomalies play a role in the pathogenesis of membranous nephropathy. B-cell depletion with rituximab may therefore be noninferior to treatment with cyclosporine for inducing and maintaining a complete or partial remission of proteinuria in patients with this condition.

METHODS

We randomly assigned patients who had membranous nephropathy, proteinuria of at least 5 g per 24 hours, and a quantified creatinine clearance of at least 40 ml per minute per 1.73 m² of body-surface area and had been receiving angiotensin-system blockade for at least 3 months to receive intravenous rituximab (two infusions, 1000 mg each, administered 14 days apart; repeated at 6 months in case of partial response) or oral cyclosporine (starting at a dose of 3.5 mg per kilogram of body weight per day for 12 months). Patients were followed for 24 months. The primary outcome was a composite of complete or partial remission of proteinuria at 24 months. Laboratory variables and safety were also assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 130 patients underwent randomization. At 12 months, 39 of 65 patients (60%) in the rituximab group and 34 of 65 (52%) in the cyclosporine group had a complete or partial remission (risk difference, 8 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -9 to 25; P = 0.004 for noninferiority). At 24 months, 39 patients (60%) in the rituximab group and 13 (20%) in the cyclosporine group had a complete or partial remission (risk difference, 40 percentage points; 95% CI, 25 to 55; P<0.001 for both noninferiority and superiority). Among patients in remission who tested positive for anti-phospholipase A₂ receptor (PLA2R) antibodies, the decline in autoantibodies to anti-PLA2R was faster and of greater magnitude and duration in the rituximab group than in the cyclosporine group. Serious adverse events occurred in 11 patients (17%) in the rituximab group and in 20 (31%) in the cyclosporine group (P = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Rituximab was noninferior to cyclosporine in inducing complete or partial remission of proteinuria at 12 months and was superior in maintaining proteinuria remission up to 24 months. (Funded by Genentech and the Fulk Family Foundation; MENTOR ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01180036.).

Sodium intake and blood pressure in children and adolescents: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental and observational studies

Background

High sodium intake is a cause of elevated blood pressure in adults. In children and adolescents, less evidence is available and findings are equivocal. We systematically reviewed the evidence from experimental and observational studies on the association between sodium intake and blood pressure in children and adolescents.

Methods

A systematic search of the Medline, Embase, CINAHL and CENTRAL databases up to March 2017 was conducted and supplemented by a manual search of bibliographies and unpublished studies. Experimental and observational studies involving children or adolescents between 0 and 18 years of age were included. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed by pooling data across all studies, separately for experimental and observational studies, and restricting to studies with sodium intake and blood pressure measurement methods of high quality. Subgroup meta-analyses, sensitivity analyses and meta-regressions were conducted to investigate sources of heterogeneity and confounding. The dose-response relationship was also investigated.

Results

Of the 6572 publications identified, 85 studies (14 experimental; 71 observational, including 60 cross-sectional, 6 cohort and 5 case-control studies) with 58 531 participants were included. In experimental studies, sodium reduction interventions decreased systolic blood pressure by 0.6 mm Hg [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5, 0.8] and diastolic blood pressure by 1.2 mm Hg (95% CI: 0.4, 1.9). The meta-analysis of 18 experimental and observational studies (including 3406 participants) with sodium intake and blood pressure measurement methods of high quality showed that, for every additional gram of sodium intake per day, systolic blood pressure increased by 0.8 mm Hg (95% CI: 0.4, 1.3) and diastolic blood pressure by 0.7 mm Hg (95% CI: 0.0, 1.4). The association was stronger among children with overweight and with low potassium intake. A quasi-linear relationship was found between sodium intake and blood pressure.

Conclusions

Sodium intake is positively associated with blood pressure in children and adolescents, with consistent findings in experimental and observational studies. Since blood pressure tracks across the life course, our findings support the reduction of sodium intake during childhood and adolescence to lower blood pressure and prevent the development of hypertension.