Comorbidities associated with COVID-19 mortality in adults in Lima, Peru: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES.

Motivation for the study. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the mortality rate from this disease was higher in adults and the elderly. Therefore, it is important to identify the factors that were associated with mortality from COVID-19 in adults, by age group. Main findings. Chronic neurological disease, kidney disease, liver disease, and cancer increased the risk of dying from COVID-19 in the three age groups we analyzed, which were made up of hospitalized patients from Lima and Callao. The risk of mortality associated with comorbidities was higher in patients aged 18 to 29. Implications. This study helps to identify the groups of patients with the highest risk of death from COVID-19, according to age group and type of comorbidity. . To evaluate comorbidities associated with mortality in adult patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 in hospitals in Lima and Callao.

MATERIALS AND METHODS.

In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed data from adult patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance System of the Peruvian Ministry of Health from March to October 2020. We estimated relative risks with 95% confidence intervals using Poisson regression models with robust variance to assess comorbidities associated with mortality by age group: young adults (18-29 years), adults (30-59 years) and older adults (≥60 years).

RESULTS.

We included 2366 young adults, 23,781 adults and 25,356 older adults. Older adults had the highest mortality (63.7%) compared to adults (27.1%) and young adults (8.5%). Regardless of age group, the presence of neurological disease, renal disease, liver disease, and cancer was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Additionally, cardiovascular disease was also a risk factor in young adults; obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic lung disease, and immunodeficiency in adults; and obesity and chronic lung disease in the elderly.

CONCLUSIONS.

Regardless of age groups, individuals with chronic neurologic disease, renal disease, liver disease, and cancer were at high risk of death from COVID-19.

Clinical features of Guillain-Barré syndrome and factors associated with mortality during the 2019 outbreak in Peru

INTRODUCTION

Peru has suffered an increase of Guillain Barre Syndrome incidence since 2015, being the biggest outbreak during 2019. We aimed to describe the clinical features, outcomes, and factors associated with mortality among cases reported in the 2019 outbreak.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of data from the National Surveillance of Guillain Barre Syndrome of the National Center for Control Disease and Prevention of Peru. We included all cases that met the Brighton criteria, level 1 to level 3. We used multivariable logistic regression to determinate factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

Overall, 772 cases were analyzed (58.7% male; mean age, 41.7 ± 20.3). 86.0% of cases aged over 30 years. 71.4% had a respiratory or gastrointestinal infection in the last 4 weeks. Case fatality rate was 4.3% and 32.2% of survivors reported sequelae. Axonal subtypes were identified in 75.6% of cases with an available nerve conduction study (38.7%). Age and impaired function of cranial nerves were independently associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2019 outbreak of Guillain Barre syndrome in Peru was an unprecedented event that affected several regions of the country. Axonal damage was more frequent than demyelinating involvement, which is compatible with findings pointing to Campylobacter jejuni as the triggering agent. The case fatality rate was similar to that reported previously in Peru and other countries, but the high frequency of sequelae is striking.

COVID-19 among Amazonian indigenous in Peru: mortality, incidence, and clinical characteristics

Background

Few studies have described the clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 from ethnic minority groups. Our objective was to evaluate the mortality and incidence rates, clinical characteristics and factors associated with mortality in cases with COVID-19 belonging to the Amazonian indigenous ethnic group in Peru.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study including all cases from COVID-19 among Peruvian people identified as Amazonian indigenous from 07 March to 31 October 2020. We calculated the standardized mortality and incidence ratios using the indirect age-adjusted method to determine the differences between Amazonian Indigenous and the general population. In addition, we used multivariable logistic regression to determine the risk factors for death.

Results

A total of 19 018 laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases were analyzed. Indigenous people had 3.18 (95% CI, 3.13–3.23) times the risk of infection and 0.34 (0.31–0.37) times the mortality risk of the general Peruvian population. Males had 1.29 (1.04–1.61) times the odds of death compared with females and for each year of age, the odds of mortality increased 1.03 (1.03–1.04) times. Cases with respiratory distress had 2.47 (1.96–3.10) times more likely to die. Having an immunodeficiency was 18.7 (6.12–57.00) times more likely to die.

Discussion

The Amazonian indigenous population in Peru was strongly affected by COVID-19 compared with the general Peruvian population.

[El niño phenomenon and natural disasters: public health interventions for disaster preparedness and response]

This article reviews public health interventions for preparedness and response to natural disasters within the context of El Niño phenomenon using systematic reviews and a review of revisions with emphasis on vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, malnutrition, heat stress, drought, flood-associated diseases, mental health problems, vulnerability of the physical health-system infrastructure, as well as long-term policies aimed at protecting the populations of these cases. Environmental interventions were identified, including vector control, chemoprophylaxis, immunization, and intradomiciliary water treatment. While these finds are based primarily on systematic reviews, it is necessary to evaluate the benefit of these interventions within the population, according to the context of each region.

Demographic and health attributes of the Nahua, initial contact population of the Peruvian Amazon

We present the case of the Nahua population of Santa Rosa de Serjali, Peruvian Amazon's population, considered of initial contact. This population consists of human groups that for a long time decided to live in isolation, but lately have begun living a more sedentary lifestyle and in contact with Western populations. There are two fully identified initial contact groups in Peru: the Nahua and the Nanti. The health statistics of the Nahua are scarce. This study offers an interpretation of demographic and epidemiological indicators of the Nahua people, trying to identify if a certain degree of health vulnerability exists. We performed a cross sectional study, and after analyzing their health indicators, as well as the supplemental qualitative analysis of the population, brought us to conclude that in 2006, the Nahua, remained in a state of health vulnerability.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes

Background

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution.

Conclusions/Significance

Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning.

Timing and spatial-extent of diseases such as dengue and malaria that result from transmission between humans and mosquitoes are regulated by weather in complicated ways. For Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the primary vector of dengue, slight changes in different components of weather have important effects on population dynamics, lifespan, biting-frequency, virus incubation period and capacity to transmit the virus, thus inducing changes in transmission probability. These complicated dynamics produce a weather-disease connection that is not well-defined for different ecological settings. Understanding this connection is important to critical elements of policy development and operational control of dengue such as predicting risk, developing human-vector transmission models, and planning surveillance-intervention strategies locally and globally. The empirical profile of the weather-disease connection for dengue developed in this study provides a needed understanding of how temperature and humidity work together in regulating human-mosquito transmission. The observed likelihood of low to epidemic-level transmission was highly sensitive to local seasonal duration in limited areas of this two-dimensional weather-space. Data presented represent a resource for estimating where and when transmission-potential supports epidemics of varying magnitude. This high-resolution weather-disease profile for dengue reveals systematic relationships that are informative for mosquito-borne diseases in general and discussions of consequences of global warming.

The 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

BACKGROUND

Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from three representative cities of Peru-Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast-to characterize the temporal, age and geographic patterns of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in this country.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917-1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths.

RESULTS

A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920-March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918-1920 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918-1919 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918-1919 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918-1920 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3-1.5.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess respiratory mortality during November 1918-February 1919 in Lima, Iquitos, Ica, followed by asynchronous recrudescent waves in 1920. Cumulative data from quantitative studies of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Latin American settings have confirmed the high mortality impact associated with this pandemic. Further historical studies in lesser studied regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia are warranted for a full understanding of the global impact of the 1918 pandemic virus.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Peru

BACKGROUND

Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru.

METHODS

We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases.

RESULTS

The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6-2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3-1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected during this early wave.

The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008

Background

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention strategies.

Methods

Based on the weekly number of dengue cases in Perú by province, we investigated the association between dengue incidence during the period 1994-2008 and demographic and climate factors across geographic regions of the country.

Results

Our findings support the presence of significant differences in the timing of dengue epidemics between jungle and coastal regions, with differences significantly associated with the timing of the seasonal cycle of mean temperature.

Conclusions

Dengue is highly persistent in jungle areas of Perú where epidemics peak most frequently around March when rainfall is abundant. Differences in the timing of dengue epidemics in jungle and coastal regions are significantly associated with the seasonal temperature cycle. Our results suggest that dengue is frequently imported into coastal regions through infective sparks from endemic jungle areas and/or cities of other neighboring endemic countries, where propitious environmental conditions promote year-round mosquito breeding sites. If jungle endemic areas are responsible for multiple dengue introductions into coastal areas, our findings suggest that curtailing the transmission of dengue in these most persistent areas could lead to significant reductions in dengue incidence in coastal areas where dengue incidence typically reaches low levels during the dry season.

Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru

Rubella is generally a mild childhood disease, but infection during early pregnancy may cause spontaneous abortion or congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), which may entail a variety of birth defects. Consequently, understanding the age-structured dynamics of this infection has considerable public health value. Vaccination short of the threshold for local elimination of transmission will increase the average age of infection. Accordingly, the classic concern for this infection is the potential for vaccination to increase incidence in individuals of childbearing age. A neglected aspect of rubella dynamics is how age incidence patterns may be moulded by the spatial dynamics inherent to epidemic metapopulations. Here, we use a uniquely detailed dataset from Peru to explore the implications of this for the burden of CRS. Our results show that the risk of CRS may be particularly severe in small remote regions, a prediction at odds with expectations in the endemic situation, and with implications for the outcome of vaccination. This outcome results directly from the metapopulation context: specifically, extinction-re-colonization dynamics are crucial because they allow for significant leakage of susceptible individuals into the older age classes during inter-epidemic periods with the potential to increase CRS risk by as much as fivefold.

Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru

We present a preliminary analysis of 1,771 confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1)v reported in Peru by 17 July including the frequency of the clinical characteristics, the spatial and age distribution of the cases and the estimate of the transmission potential. Age-specific frequency of cases was highest among school age children and young adults, with the lowest frequency of cases among seniors, a pattern that is consistent with reports from other countries. Estimates of the reproduction number lie in the range of 1.2 to 1.7, which is broadly consistent with previous estimates for this pandemic in other regions. Validation of these estimates will be possible as additional data become available.

Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru

We present a preliminary analysis of 1,771 confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1)v reported in Peru by 17 July including the frequency of the clinical characteristics, the spatial and age distribution of the cases and the estimate of the transmission potential. Age-specific frequency of cases was highest among school age children and young adults, with the lowest frequency of cases among seniors, a pattern that is consistent with reports from other countries. Estimates of the reproduction number lie in the range of 1.2 to 1.7, which is broadly consistent with previous estimates for this pandemic in other regions. Validation of these estimates will be possible as additional data become available.

The spatial and temporal patterns of falciparum and vivax malaria in Perú: 1994-2006

BACKGROUND

Malaria is the direct cause of approximately one million deaths worldwide each year, though it is both preventable and curable. Increasing the understanding of the transmission dynamics of falciparum and vivax malaria and their relationship could suggest improvements for malaria control efforts. Here the weekly number of malaria cases due to Plasmodium falciparum (1994-2006) and Plasmodium vivax (1999-2006) in Perú at different spatial scales in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data are analysed.

METHODS

Malaria periodicity patterns were analysed through wavelet spectral analysis, studied patterns of persistence as a function of community size and assessed spatial heterogeneity via the Lorenz curve and the summary Gini index.

RESULTS

Wavelet time series analyses identified annual cycles in the incidence of both malaria species as the dominant pattern. However, significant spatial heterogeneity was observed across jungle, mountain and coastal regions with slightly higher levels of spatial heterogeneity for P. vivax than P. falciparum. While the incidence of P. falciparum has been declining in recent years across geographic regions, P. vivax incidence has remained relatively steady in jungle and mountain regions with a slight decline in coastal regions. Factors that may be contributing to this decline are discussed. The time series of both malaria species were significantly synchronized in coastal (rho = 0.9, P < 0.0001) and jungle regions (rho = 0.76, P < 0.0001) but not in mountain regions. Community size was significantly associated with malaria persistence due to both species in jungle regions, but not in coastal and mountain regions.

CONCLUSION

Overall, findings highlight the importance of highly refined spatial and temporal data on malaria incidence together with demographic and geographic information in improving the understanding of malaria persistence patterns associated with multiple malaria species in human populations, impact of interventions, detection of heterogeneity and generation of hypotheses.

Syndromic surveillance: adapting innovations to developing settings

The tools and strategies of syndromic surveillance, say the authors, hold promise for improving public health security in developing countries.

Prevalence of HIV, herpes simplex virus-2, and syphilis in male sex partners of pregnant women in Peru

BACKGROUND

Sexually active heterosexual men may represent an important risk factor for HIV infection and STI transmission to their female partners and unborn children, though little is known about the prevalence of STIs in this population. We sought to determine the prevalence of HIV, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), and syphilis infection and associated risk behaviors among male sex partners of pregnant women in Peru.

METHODS

Survey and seroprevalence data were collected from 1,835 male partners of pregnant women in four cities in Peru. Serum was tested for antibodies to HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis.

RESULTS

Among the 1,835 male participants, HIV prevalence was 0.8% (95% CI = 0.5-1.4%), HSV-2 16.0% (95% CI = 14.3-17.8%), and syphilis 1.6% (95% CI = 1.0-2.2%). Additionally, 11.0% reported a lifetime history of intercourse with men, and 37.1% with female sex workers. Unprotected intercourse with men during the previous year was reported by 0.9% and with female sex workers by 1.2%.

CONCLUSION

Pregnant women's sex partners reported lifetime sexual contact with core risk groups, had an elevated prevalence of HSV-2, and demonstrated the potential to spread HIV and other STIs to their partners. Though the prevalence of HIV in the population was not significantly higher than observed in other samples of heterosexuals in Peru, the risk of HIV transmission to their female partners may be exacerbated by their increased prevalence of HSV-2 infection. Further study of heterosexual populations is necessary to fully understand the epidemiology of HIV/STIs in Latin America.