Revealed versus potential spatial accessibility of healthcare and changing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Timely access to healthcare is essential but measuring access is challenging. Prior research focused on analyzing potential travel times to healthcare under optimal mobility scenarios that do not incorporate direct observations of human mobility, potentially underestimating the barriers to receiving care for many populations.

METHODS

We introduce an approach for measuring accessibility by utilizing travel times to healthcare facilities from aggregated and anonymized smartphone Location History data. We measure these revealed travel times to healthcare facilities in over 100 countries and juxtapose our findings with potential (optimal) travel times estimated using Google Maps directions. We then quantify changes in revealed accessibility associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

We find that revealed travel time differs substantially from potential travel time; in all but 4 countries this difference exceeds 30 minutes, and in 49 countries it exceeds 60 minutes. Substantial variation in revealed healthcare accessibility is observed and correlates with life expectancy (⍴=-0.70) and infant mortality (⍴=0.59), with this association remaining significant after adjusting for potential accessibility and wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic altered the patterns of healthcare access, especially for populations dependent on public transportation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our metrics based on empirical data indicate that revealed travel times exceed potential travel times in many regions. During COVID-19, inequitable accessibility was exacerbated. In conjunction with other relevant data, these findings provide a resource to help public health policymakers identify underserved populations and promote health equity by formulating policies and directing resources towards areas and populations most in need.

Early social distancing policies in Europe, changes in mobility & COVID-19 case trajectories: Insights from Spring 2020

BACKGROUND

Social distancing have been widely used to mitigate community spread of SARS-CoV-2. We sought to quantify the impact of COVID-19 social distancing policies across 27 European counties in spring 2020 on population mobility and the subsequent trajectory of disease.

METHODS

We obtained data on national social distancing policies from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and aggregated and anonymized mobility data from Google. We used a pre-post comparison and two linear mixed-effects models to first assess the relationship between implementation of national policies and observed changes in mobility, and then to assess the relationship between changes in mobility and rates of COVID-19 infections in subsequent weeks.

RESULTS

Compared to a pre-COVID baseline, Spain saw the largest decrease in aggregate population mobility (~70%), as measured by the time spent away from residence, while Sweden saw the smallest decrease (~20%). The largest declines in mobility were associated with mandatory stay-at-home orders, followed by mandatory workplace closures, school closures, and non-mandatory workplace closures. While mandatory shelter-in-place orders were associated with 16.7% less mobility (95% CI: -23.7% to -9.7%), non-mandatory orders were only associated with an 8.4% decrease (95% CI: -14.9% to -1.8%). Large-gathering bans were associated with the smallest change in mobility compared with other policy types. Changes in mobility were in turn associated with changes in COVID-19 case growth. For example, a 10% decrease in time spent away from places of residence was associated with 11.8% (95% CI: 3.8%, 19.1%) fewer new COVID-19 cases.

DISCUSSION

This comprehensive evaluation across Europe suggests that mandatory stay-at-home orders and workplace closures had the largest impacts on population mobility and subsequent COVID-19 cases at the onset of the pandemic. With a better understanding of policies' relative performance, countries can more effectively invest in, and target, early nonpharmacological interventions.

Impacts of social distancing policies on mobility and COVID-19 case growth in the US

Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Using anonymized and aggregated mobility data from opted-in Google users, we found that state-level emergency declarations resulted in a 9.9% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 24.5% reduction in mobility the following week, and subsequent shelter-in-place mandates yielded an additional 29.0% reduction. Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth two to four weeks later. For example, a 10% reduction in mobility was associated with a 17.5% reduction in case growth two weeks later. Given the continued reliance on social distancing policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, these results may be helpful to public health officials trying to balance infection control with the economic and social consequences of these policies.

Managing thymic enlargement in Graves' disease

Thymic enlargement (TE) in Graves' disease (GD) is often diagnosed incidentally when chest imaging is done for unrelated reasons. This is becoming more common as the frequency of chest imaging increases. There are currently no clear guidelines for managing TE in GD. Subject 1 is a 36-year-old female who presented with weight loss, increased thirst and passage of urine and postural symptoms. Investigations confirmed GD, non-PTH-dependent hypercalcaemia and Addison's disease (AD). CT scans to exclude underlying malignancy showed TE but normal viscera. A diagnosis of hypercalcaemia due to GD and AD was made. Subject 2, a 52-year-old female, was investigated for recurrent chest infections, haemoptysis and weight loss. CT thorax to exclude chest malignancy, showed TE. Planned thoracotomy was postponed when investigations confirmed GD. Subject 3 is a 47-year-old female who presented with breathlessness, chest pain and shakiness. Investigations confirmed T3 toxicosis due to GD. A CT pulmonary angiogram to exclude pulmonary embolism showed TE. The CT appearances in all three subjects were consistent with benign TE. These subjects were given appropriate endocrine treatment only (without biopsy or thymectomy) as CT appearances showed the following appearances of benign TE - arrowhead shape, straight regular margins, absence of calcification and cyst formation and radiodensity equal to surrounding muscle. Furthermore, interval scans confirmed thymic regression of over 60% in 6 months after endocrine control. In subjects with CT appearances consistent with benign TE, a conservative policy with interval CT scans at 6 months after endocrine control will prevent inappropriate surgical intervention. Learning points: Chest imaging is common in modern clinical practice and incidental anterior mediastinal abnormalities are therefore diagnosed frequently. Thymic enlargement (TE) associated with Graves' disease (GD) is occasionally seen in view of the above. There is no validated strategy to manage TE in GD at present. However, CT (or MRI) scan features of the thymus may help characterise benign TE, and such subjects do not require thymic biopsy or surgery at presentation. In them, an expectant 'wait and see' policy is recommended with GD treatment only, as the thymus will show significant regression 6 months after endocrine control.

Nephrogenic diabetes insipidus partially responsive to oral desmopressin in a subject with lithium-induced multiple endocrinopathy

Lithium (Li) may cause multiple endocrinopathies, including hypercalcaemia, thyroid dysfunction and nephrogenic diabetes insipidus (NDI), but rarely in the same patient. The management of NDI remains a challenge. We report on a patient on long-term Li who had simultaneous NDI (paired serum and urine samples had abnormal osmolalities, typical of NDI, and treatment with parenteral desmopressin failed to affect urinary volume and serum osmolality), 'destructive' thyroiditis (hyperthyroidism, absent radioiodine uptake and absent thyrotrophin receptor antibodies) and primary hyperparathyroidism (compatible biochemistry, urine calcium excluding 'set point' anomalies and hypocalciuric hypercalcaemia, and normal parathyroid imaging). The thyroiditis resolved spontaneously and hypercalcaemia responded to reduction of Li dose. The NDI was unresponsive to amiloride, thiazides and ibuprofen in combination. However, urine output was reduced by 50% when a high dose of oral desmopressin was given. We conclude that Li-induced multiple endocrinopathy remains rare and, although NDI is difficult to manage, high dose oral desmopressin should be tried when other medications fail.

Thyrotrophin receptor antibody characteristics in a woman with long-standing Hashimoto's who developed Graves' disease and pretibial myxoedema

CONTEXT

Sequential conversion of Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) to Graves' disease (GD) is uncommon. Distinct immune paradigms, paucity of functioning tissue in long-standing HT, and infrequent conversion of blocking (TBAb) to stimulating (TSAb) thyrotrophin receptor antibody (TRAb) may account for this. Molecular and crystal structure analysis helps delineate TSH receptor (TSHR)/TRAb interactions in detail. Such 'fingerprinting' helps determine the behaviour and characteristics of TRAb in longitudinal studies.

PATIENT

An 80-year-old woman taking thyroxine for long-standing HT became hyperthyroid. This persisted despite thyroxine withdrawal - free T3 was 7·3 pmol/l (2·6-5·7) and TSH < 0·01 mU/l (0·2-4·5) and TRAb highly positive. She had a goitre (ultrasound - HT), pretibial myxoedema, with mild inactive Graves' orbitopathy. She had RAI treatment and is on thyroxine replacement.

MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS

Blood samples at presentation (A) and 1 year (B) showed high TSAb and TPOAb activity but no TBAb. Experiments involving TSHR mutations confirmed that (i) TRAb had stable characteristics over 1 year; (ii) TSHR mutation R255D caused complete inhibition and (iii) R109A caused marked reduction of cAMP production by M22 (TSHR-stimulating human monoclonal antibody) and A and B; (iv) mutations R80A, E107A and K129A while affecting M22 had little effect on A and B.

CONCLUSIONS

The reasons for an immunological paradigm shift in this elderly woman remain speculative. We believe that de-novo TSAb synthesis occurred converting her long-standing HT to GD although the mechanisms responsible remain unexplained. TRAb analysis confirmed stable autoantibody characteristics over 1 year and variable effects of TSHR mutations on TRAb and M22 function.

Can a random serum cortisol reduce the need for short synacthen tests in acute medical admissions?

BACKGROUND

Short synacthen tests (SSTs) are frequently performed in medical inpatients with suspected adrenocortical insufficiency. The utility of a random or baseline serum cortisol in this setting is unclear. We determined random cortisol thresholds that safely preclude SSTs in acute medical admissions.

METHODS

We analysed SSTs in acute non-critically ill general medical patients (n = 166, median age 66, range 15-94 y; men 48%, women 52%). The SST was defined according to the 30-min cortisol as 'pass' (>550 nmol/L) or 'fail' (< or =550 nmol/L). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were generated to determine the predictive value of the basal cortisol for a failed SST.

RESULTS

Of 166 SSTs, a pass was seen in 127 (76.5%) tests, while 39 (23.5%) tests failed the SST. ROC curves showed that no single cut-off point of the baseline cortisol was adequately both sensitive and specific for failing the SST despite a good overall predictive value (area under curve 0.94; 95% confidence interval 0.89-0.98). A basal cortisol <420 nmol/L had 100% sensitivity and 54% specificity for failing the SST, while a basal cortisol <142 nmol/L had 100% specificity and 35% sensitivity. Restricting the SST to patients with a basal cortisol <420 nmol/L would have prevented 44% of SSTs while correctly identifying all patients who failed the SST.

CONCLUSION

A baseline serum cortisol may prevent unnecessary SSTs in medical inpatients with suspected adrenocortical insufficiency. However, SSTs are still indicated in patients with random cortisol <420 nmol/L, or where the suspicion of adrenal insufficiency is compelling.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome with pulmonary calcification in two patients with B cell malignancies

Two patients, one with B cell lymphoma and hypercalcemia and the other with multiple myeloma and hypercalcemia developed acute progressive respiratory insufficiency characteristic of the adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Both were intubated and placed on mechanical ventilation. Lung compliance deteriorated and became refractory to mechanical inflation. Examination of the lungs at post mortem examination disclosed widespread calcification within alveolar septa and diffuse alveolar damage with hyaline membrane formation consistent with ARDS. Although ARDS has been described with lymphomatous involvement of the lungs, its development in association with metastatic calcification in B cell malignancy has not been previously reported.