The impact of different data handling strategies in exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis of diary measures: an evaluation using simulated and real-world asthma nighttime symptoms diary data

BACKGROUND

Daily diaries are an important modality for patient-reported outcome assessment. They typically comprise multiple questions, so understanding their underlying structure is key to appropriate analysis and interpretation. Structural evaluation of such measures poses challenges due to the high volume of repeated measurements. Potential strategies include selecting a single day, averaging item-level observations over time, or using all data while accounting for its multilevel structure.

METHOD

The above strategies were evaluated in a simulated dataset via exploratory and confirmatory factor modelling by comparing their impact on various estimates (i.e., inter-item correlations, factor loadings, model fit). Each strategy was additionally explored using real-world data from an observational study (the Asthma Nighttime Symptoms Diary).

RESULTS

Both single day and item average strategies resulted in biased factor loadings. The former displayed lower overall bias (single day: 0.064; item average: 0.121) and mean square error (single day: 0.007; item average: 0.016) but greater frequency of incorrect factor number identification compared with the latter (single day: 46.4%; item average: 0%). Increased estimated inter-item correlations were apparent in the item-average method. Non-trivial between- and within-person variance highlighted the utility of a multilevel approach. However, convergence issues and Heywood cases were more common under the multilevel approach (90.2% and 100.0%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that a multilevel approach can enhance our insight when evaluating the structural properties of daily diary data; however, implementation challenges still remain. Our work offers guidance on the impact of data handling decisions in diary assessment.

GOunder/Desmoid Tumor Research Foundation DEsmoid Symptom/Impact Scale (GODDESS©): psychometric properties and clinically meaningful thresholds as assessed in the Phase 3 DeFi randomized controlled clinical trial

PURPOSE

The GODDESS© tool was developed to assess Desmoid Tumor/Aggressive Fibromatosis (DT/AF) symptom severity and impact on patients' lives. This study evaluated GODDESS©'s cross-sectional and longitudinal measurement properties.

METHODS

The Phase 3, randomized placebo-controlled, DeFi study (NCT03785964) of nirogacestat in DT/AF was used to assess GODDESS©'s reliability, construct validity, responsiveness, and estimate of meaningful change thresholds (MCTs). Other patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures included Patient Global Impression of Severity (PGIS) in DT/AF symptoms, EORTC QLQ-C30, Brief Pain Inventory Short Form, and PROMIS Physical Function short-form 10a v2.0 plus 3 items.

RESULTS

DeFi participants (N = 142) had a median age of 34 years (range: 18-76) and were mostly female (64.8%), with extra-abdominal (76.8%) or intra-abdominal tumors (23.2%). The GODDESS© symptom/impact scales showed internal consistency at baseline, cycles 4 and 7 (Cronbach's α > 0.70) and test-retest reliability (intra-class correlation coefficient > 0.85). GODDESS© scales correlated moderately to highly with PRO measures capturing similar content and differentiated among PGIS and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group groups. GODDESS© scales detected improvement over time. For the total symptom score, a 1.30-point decrease was estimated as the within-person MCT and a 1.00-point decrease as the between-group MCT. For the physical functioning impact score, estimated within- and between-group MCTs were 0.60-point and 0.50-point decreases, respectively. Few participants exhibited symptom worsening.

CONCLUSION

GODDESS© was found to be reliable, valid, responsive, and interpretable as a clinical trial endpoint in the pooled sample of DT/AF patients. Estimated MCTs can be used to define responders and assess group-level differences in future, unblinded, efficacy analyses.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER AND REGISTRATION DATE

NCT03785964; December 24, 2018.

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Symptom Assessment Questionnaire (NSCLC-SAQ): Measurement Properties and Estimated Clinically Meaningful Thresholds from a Phase 3 Study

Introduction

The NSCLC Symptom Assessment Questionnaire (NSCLC-SAQ) was developed to assess NSCLC symptom severity in accordance with Food and Drug Administration evidentiary expectations leading to Food and Drug Administration qualification in 2018. This study evaluated the NSCLC-SAQ’s measurement properties within a clinical trial.

Methods

The KEYNOTE-598 phase 3 study of participants with stage IV metastatic NSCLC with programmed death-ligand 1 tumor proportion score greater than or equal to 50% was used to assess the NSCLC-SAQ’s reliability, construct validity, responsiveness, and estimate clinically meaningful within-person change. Other patient-reported outcome measures included patient global impression items of severity and change in lung cancer symptoms, and the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire core 30 and lung cancer module, LC13.

Results

Participants (N = 560) were mostly men (70%), had a mean age of 64 years, and had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 1 (64%) or 0 (36%). Internal consistency at baseline (Cronbach’s α = 0.74) and test-retest reliability after 3 weeks (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.79) were satisfactory. NSCLC-SAQ items, domains, and total score correlated moderately to highly with patient-reported outcome measures capturing similar content, and the total score differentiated among patient global impression of severity groups (p < 0.001). The total score detected improvement over time and the estimated clinically meaningful within-person change threshold for improvement ranged from three to five points on the 0 to 20 scale. Few participants exhibited symptom worsening (n = 38), limiting inferences in this group.

Conclusions

The NSCLC-SAQ was found to be reliable, valid, responsive, and interpretable for assessing symptom improvement in NSCLC. Further evaluation is recommended in trial participants whose symptoms worsen over time.

Development of a common scale for measuring healthy ageing across the world: results from the ATHLOS consortium

BACKGROUND

Research efforts to measure the concept of healthy ageing have been diverse and limited to specific populations. This diversity limits the potential to compare healthy ageing across countries and/or populations. In this study, we developed a novel measurement scale of healthy ageing using worldwide cohorts.

METHODS

In the Ageing Trajectories of Health-Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project, data from 16 international cohorts were harmonized. Using ATHLOS data, an item response theory (IRT) model was used to develop a scale with 41 items related to health and functioning. Measurement heterogeneity due to intra-dataset specificities was detected, applying differential item functioning via a logistic regression framework. The model accounted for specificities in model parameters by introducing cohort-specific parameters that rescaled scores to the main scale, using an equating procedure. Final scores were estimated for all individuals and converted to T-scores with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10.

RESULTS

A common scale was created for 343 915 individuals above 18 years of age from 16 studies. The scale showed solid evidence of concurrent validity regarding various sociodemographic, life and health factors, and convergent validity with healthy life expectancy (r = 0.81) and gross domestic product (r = 0.58). Survival curves showed that the scale could also be predictive of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The ATHLOS scale, due to its reliability and global representativeness, has the potential to contribute to worldwide research on healthy ageing.

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients (pts) with locally advanced basal cell carcinoma (laBCC) treated with cemiplimab: Analysis of a phase II, open-label clinical trial

9566

Background: Cemiplimab-rwlc is the first immunotherapy to receive approval in the US, fully for pts with laBCC and accelerated for metastatic BCC, post hedgehog inhibitors or for whom hedgehog inhibitors are not appropriate. Cemiplimab resulted in clinically meaningful anti-tumor activity in pts with laBCC who progressed on or were intolerant to hedgehog inhibitor therapy (NCT03132636). This analysis evaluated HRQoL in these pts. Methods: Adults with laBCC and ECOG performance status ≤1 (n=84) received IV cemiplimab 350 mg Q3W for up to 9 treatment cycles. At baseline (BL) and day 1 of each cycle (C), pts completed EORTC QLQ-C30 and SKINDEX-16 questionnaires that assess Global Health Status (GHS)/QoL, functioning, and BCC-related symptoms. Mixed-effects repeated measures (MMRM) models were used to estimate least squares (LS) mean (standard error [SE]) change from BL during treatment (i.e., across C2 to C9); changes ≥|10| points were considered clinically meaningful. Responder analyses were conducted in pts with non-missing data from BL to determine the proportions with clinically meaningful improvement or deterioration, or stability on QLQ-C30 and SKINDEX-16 at C2 and C9; a 10-point threshold was considered meaningful for both instruments. Results: BL scores showed moderate to high levels of functioning and low symptom burden. In MMRM models, overall changes from BL on QLQ-C30 indicated stability for GHS/QoL and all scales except for clinically meaningful worsening of fatigue (LS mean [SE] change 12.5 [3.9]; P<.05). In responder analysis, the majority of pts reported clinically meaningful improvement or stability at C2 and C9 on all QLQ-C30 functioning scales and the key symptom of pain but not fatigue (Table). On SKINDEX-16, MMRM models showed clinically meaningful improvement on the emotional subscale (LS mean [SE] change –13.2 [3.9]; P<.05) and stability on the symptom and functional subscales. Responder analysis showed clinically meaningful improvements or stability across the SKINDEX-16 subscales in approximately 80% of pts at C2, and 70–80% of pts at C9. Conclusions: In laBCC pts treated with cemiplimab, the majority reported clinically meaningful improvement or stability in GHS/QoL and functional status while maintaining a low symptom burden except for fatigue. Clinical trial information: NCT03132636. [Table: see text]

Sex differences in mortality: results from a population-based study of 12 longitudinal cohorts

BACKGROUND

Women generally have longer life expectancy than men but have higher levels of disability and morbidity. Few studies have identified factors that explain higher mortality in men. The aim of this study was to identify potential factors contributing to sex differences in mortality at older age and to investigate variation across countries.

METHODS

This study included participants age ≥ 50 yr from 28 countries in 12 cohort studies of the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) consortium. Using a 2-step individual participant data meta-analysis framework, we applied Cox proportional hazards modelling to investigate the association between sex and mortality across different countries. We included socioeconomic (education, wealth), lifestyle (smoking, alcohol consumption), social (marital status, living alone) and health factors (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental disorders) as covariates or interaction terms with sex to test whether these factors contributed to the mortality gap between men and women.

RESULTS

The study included 179 044 individuals. Men had 60% higher mortality risk than women after adjustment for age (pooled hazard ratio [HR] 1.6; 95% confidence interval 1.5-1.7), yet the effect sizes varied across countries (I 2 = 71.5%, HR range 1.1-2.4). Only smoking and cardiovascular diseases substantially attenuated the effect size (by about 22%).

INTERPRETATION

Lifestyle and health factors may partially account for excess mortality in men compared with women, but residual variation remains unaccounted for. Variation in the effect sizes across countries may indicate contextual factors contributing to gender inequality in specific settings.

Global trends in the prevalence and incidence of depression:a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is mixed evidence regarding the change in the prevalence of depression in the general population over time. This study aimed to synthesise the evidence on studies that use equivalent approaches in equivalent populations across different time points.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted to identify studies focused on the change over time in depression incidence and prevalence in the general population. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to obtain a pooled effect for the change in the prevalence estimates between the first and last time points considered. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses were used to ascertain differences in the effect sizes by gender, age group, prevalence type, elapsed time between cross-sections, and depression operationalisation.

RESULTS

19 studies provided information on the change in depression prevalence over time, whereas none provided such information regarding incidence. The pooled odds ratio (OR) and confidence interval (CI) were estimated by using 17 studies: OR=1.35 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.61). Similar pooled effects were obtained for females and males, separately. The high heterogeneity across studies was not explained by any of the design variables considered. No evidence for publication bias was found.

LIMITATIONS

The review included published articles up to August 2018, and the information of studies with more than two time points was summarised in a single estimate of change.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a predominant increasing trend in the likelihood of experiencing depression over time that seems not to be explainable by study design differences or publication bias alone.

Factors related with sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity among low- and middle-income settings: the 10/66 DRG study

Sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity research in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) is limited. We investigated sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity prevalence and sociodemographic, bio-clinical and lifestyle factors in LMICs settings. For the purposes of this study, the 10/66 Dementia Research Group follow-up wave information from individuals aged 65 and over in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Peru, Mexico, Puerto Rico, China, was employed and analysed (n = 8.694). Based on indirect population formulas, we calculated body fat percentage (%BF) and skeletal muscle mass index (SMI). Sarcopenia prevalence ranged from 12.4% (Dominican Republic) to 24.6% (rural Peru); sarcopenic obesity prevalence ranged from 3.0% (rural China) to 10.2% (rural Peru). Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for sarcopenia were higher for men 2.82 (2.22-3.57) and those with higher %BF 1.08 (1.07-1.09), whereas higher number of assets was associated with a decreased likelihood 0.93 (0.87-1.00). OR of sarcopenic obesity were higher for men 2.17 (1.70-2.76), those reporting moderate alcohol drinking 1.76 (1.21-2.57), and those with increased number of limiting impairments 1.54 (1.11-2.14). We observed heterogeneity in the prevalence of sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity in the 10/66 settings. We also found a variety of factors to be associated with those. Our results reveal the need for more research among the older population of LMICs.

Implementation outcome instruments for use in physical healthcare settings: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Implementation research aims to facilitate the timely and routine implementation and sustainment of evidence-based interventions and services. A glaring gap in this endeavour is the capability of researchers, healthcare practitioners and managers to quantitatively evaluate implementation efforts using psychometrically sound instruments. To encourage and support the use of precise and accurate implementation outcome measures, this systematic review aimed to identify and appraise studies that assess the measurement properties of quantitative implementation outcome instruments used in physical healthcare settings.

METHOD

The following data sources were searched from inception to March 2019, with no language restrictions: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, HMIC, CINAHL and the Cochrane library. Studies that evaluated the measurement properties of implementation outcome instruments in physical healthcare settings were eligible for inclusion. Proctor et al.'s taxonomy of implementation outcomes was used to guide the inclusion of implementation outcomes: acceptability, appropriateness, feasibility, adoption, penetration, implementation cost and sustainability. Methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) checklist. Psychometric quality of the included instruments was assessed using the Contemporary Psychometrics checklist (ConPsy). Usability was determined by number of items per instrument.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight publications reporting on the measurement properties of 55 implementation outcome instruments (65 scales) were identified. The majority of instruments assessed acceptability (n = 33), followed by appropriateness (n = 7), adoption (n = 4), feasibility (n = 4), penetration (n = 4) and sustainability (n = 3) of evidence-based practice. The methodological quality of individual scales was low, with few studies rated as 'excellent' for reliability (6/62) and validity (7/63), and both studies that assessed responsiveness rated as 'poor' (2/2). The psychometric quality of the scales was also low, with 12/65 scales scoring 7 or more out of 22, indicating greater psychometric strength. Six scales (6/65) rated as 'excellent' for usability.

CONCLUSION

Investigators assessing implementation outcomes quantitatively should select instruments based on their methodological and psychometric quality to promote consistent and comparable implementation evaluations. Rather than developing ad hoc instruments, we encourage further psychometric testing of instruments with promising methodological and psychometric evidence.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 2017 CRD42017065348.

Education and wealth inequalities in healthy ageing in eight harmonised cohorts in the ATHLOS consortium: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The rapid growth of the size of the older population is having a substantial effect on health and social care services in many societies across the world. Maintaining health and functioning in older age is a key public health issue but few studies have examined factors associated with inequalities in trajectories of health and functioning across countries. The aim of this study was to investigate trajectories of healthy ageing in older men and women (aged ≥45 years) and the effect of education and wealth on these trajectories.

METHODS

This population-based study is based on eight longitudinal cohorts from Australia, the USA, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Europe harmonised by the EU Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) consortium. We selected these studies from the repository of 17 ageing studies in the ATHLOS consortium because they reported at least three waves of collected data. We used multilevel modelling to investigate the effect of education and wealth on trajectories of healthy ageing scores, which incorporated 41 items of physical and cognitive functioning with a range between 0 (poor) and 100 (good), after adjustment for age, sex, and cohort study.

FINDINGS

We used data from 141 214 participants, with a mean age of 62·9 years (SD 10·1) and an age range of 45-106 years, of whom 76 484 (54·2%) were women. The earliest year of baseline data was 1992 and the most recent last follow-up year was 2015. Education and wealth affected baseline scores of healthy ageing but had little effect on the rate of decrease in healthy ageing score thereafter. Compared with those with primary education or less, participants with tertiary education had higher baseline scores (adjusted difference in score of 10·54 points, 95% CI 10·31-10·77). The adjusted difference in healthy ageing score between lowest and highest quintiles of wealth was 8·98 points (95% CI 8·74-9·22). Among the eight cohorts, the strongest inequality gradient for both education and wealth was found in the Health Retirement Study from the USA.

INTERPRETATION

The apparent difference in baseline healthy ageing scores between those with high versus low education levels and wealth suggests that cumulative disadvantage due to low education and wealth might have largely deteriorated health conditions in early life stages, leading to persistent differences throughout older age, but no further increase in ageing disparity after age 70 years. Future research should adopt a lifecourse approach to investigate mechanisms of health inequalities across education and wealth in different societies.

FUNDING

European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

The impact of physical activity on healthy ageing trajectories: evidence from eight cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Research has suggested the positive impact of physical activity on health and wellbeing in older age, yet few studies have investigated the associations between physical activity and heterogeneous trajectories of healthy ageing. We aimed to identify how physical activity can influence healthy ageing trajectories using a harmonised dataset of eight ageing cohorts across the world.

METHODS

Based on a harmonised dataset of eight ageing cohorts in Australia, USA, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, comprising 130,521 older adults (Mage = 62.81, SDage = 10.06) followed-up up to 10 years (Mfollow-up = 5.47, SDfollow-up = 3.22), we employed growth mixture modelling to identify latent classes of people with different trajectories of healthy ageing scores, which incorporated 41 items of health and functioning. Multinomial logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the associations between physical activity and different types of trajectories adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and other lifestyle behaviours.

RESULTS

Three latent classes of healthy ageing trajectories were identified: two with stable trajectories with high (71.4%) or low (25.2%) starting points and one with a high starting point but a fast decline over time (3.4%). Engagement in any level of physical activity was associated with decreased odds of being in the low stable (OR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.19) and fast decline trajectories groups (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.50) compared to the high stable trajectory group. These results were replicated with alternative physical activity operationalisations, as well as in sensitivity analyses using reduced samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a positive impact of physical activity on healthy ageing, attenuating declines in health and functioning. Physical activity promotion should be a key focus of healthy ageing policies to prevent disability and fast deterioration in health.

Alcohol Drinking and Health in Ageing: A Global Scale Analysis of Older Individual Data through the Harmonised Dataset of ATHLOS

We investigated the relation between alcohol drinking and healthy ageing by means of a validated health status metric, using individual data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project. For the purposes of this study, the ATHLOS harmonised dataset, which includes information from individuals aged 65+ in 38 countries, was analysed (n = 135,440). Alcohol drinking was reflected by means of three harmonised variables: alcohol drinking frequency, current and past alcohol drinker. A set of 41 self-reported health items and measured tests were used to generate a specific health metric. In the harmonised dataset, the prevalence of current drinking was 47.5% while of past drinking was 26.5%. In the pooled sample, current alcohol drinking was positively associated with better health status among older adults ((b-coef (95% CI): 1.32(0.45 to 2.19)) and past alcohol drinking was inversely related (b-coef (95% CI): -0.83 (-1.51 to -0.16)) with health status. Often alcohol consumption appeared to be beneficial only for females in all super-regions except Africa, both age group categories (65-80 years old and 80+), both age group categories, as well as among all the financial status categories (all p < 0.05). Regional analysis pictured diverse patterns in the association for current and past alcohol drinkers. Our results report the need for specific alcohol intake recommendations among older adults that will help them maintain a better health status throughout the ageing process.

Healthy ageing and the prediction of mortality and incidence dependence in low- and middle- income countries: a 10/66 population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

In the absence of a consensus on definition and measurement of healthy ageing, we created a healthy ageing index tallying with the functional ability framework provided by the World Health Organization. To create this index, we employed items of functional ability and intrinsic capacity. The current study aims to establish the predictive validity and discrimination properties of this healthy ageing index in settings in Latin American, part of the 10/66 cohort.

METHODS

Population-based cohort studies including 12,865 people ≥65 years old in catchment areas of Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. We employed latent variable modelling to estimate the healthy ageing scores of each participant. We grouped participants according to the quintiles of the healthy ageing score distribution. Cox's proportional hazard models for mortality and sub-hazard (competing risks) models for incident dependence (i.e. needing care) were calculated per area after a median of 3.9 years and 3.7 years, respectively. Results were pooled together via fixed-effects meta-analysis. Our findings were compared with those obtained from self-rated health.

RESULTS

Participants with lowest levels, compared to participants with highest level of healthy ageing, had increased risk of mortality and incident dependence, even after adjusting for sociodemographic and health conditions (HR: 3.25, 95%CI: 2.63-4.02; sub-HR: 5.21, 95%CI: 4.02-6.75). Healthy ageing scores compared to self-rated health had higher population attributable fractions (PAFs) for mortality (43.6% vs 19.3%) and incident dependence (58.6% vs 17.0%), and better discriminative power (Harrell's c-statistic: mortality 0.74 vs 0.72; incident dependence 0.76 vs 0.70).

CONCLUSION

These results provide evidence that our healthy ageing index could be a valuable tool for prevention strategies as it demonstrated predictive and discriminative properties. Further research in other cultural settings will assist moving from a theoretical conceptualisation of healthy ageing to a more practical one.

Development of a healthy ageing index in Latin American countries - a 10/66 dementia research group population-based study

BACKGROUND

Our population is ageing and in 2050 more than one out of five people will be 60 years or older; 80% of whom will be living in a low-and-middle income country. Living longer does not entail living healthier; however, there is not a widely accepted measure of healthy ageing hampering policy and research. The World Health Organization defines healthy ageing as the process of developing and maintaining functional ability that will enable well-being in older age. We aimed to create a healthy ageing index (HAI) in a subset of six low-and-middle income countries, part of the 10/66 study, by using items of functional ability and intrinsic capacity.

METHODS

The study sample included residents 65-years old and over (n = 12,865) from catchment area sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Peru, Venezuela, Mexico and Puerto Rico. Items were collected by interviewing participants or key informants between 2003 and 2010. Two-stage factor analysis was employed and we compared one-factor, second-order and bifactor models. The psychometric properties of the index, including reliability, replicability, unidimensionality and concurrent convergent validity as well as measurement invariance per ethnic group and gender were further examined in the best fit model.

RESULTS

The bifactor model displayed superior model fit statistics supporting that a general factor underlies the various items but other subdomain factors are also needed. The HAI indicated excellent reliability (ω = 0.96, ωΗ = 0.84), replicability (H = 0.96), some support for unidimensionality (Explained Common Variance = 0.65) and some concurrent convergent validity with self-rated health. Scalar measurement invariance per ethnic group and gender was supported.

CONCLUSIONS

A HAI with excellent psychometric properties was created by using items of functional ability and intrinsic capacity in a subset of six low-and-middle income countries. Further research is needed to explore sub-population differences and to validate this index to other cultural settings.

THE IMPACT OF LIFESTYLE BEHAVIORS ON HEALTHY AGING TRAJECTORIES: THE ATHLOS PROJECT

The number of people above 60 years old will double by 2050. There is a considerate variability in the health status of older people. The identification of the different trajectories that people follow as they grow older constitutes one of the aims of the ATHLOS project. In the current study, we created a metric of health in the four available waves (2001, 2003, 2012, 2015) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) by employing Bayesian multilevel Item Response Theory. Growth mixture modelling indicated that older Mexicans (n=14,143) age by following four distinct pathways (i.e. high-stable, moderate-stable, low-stable, decliners). Adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviours (i.e. physical activity, non-smoking, limited alcohol consumption) was associated with better health trajectories. Preliminary analyses in the ATHLOS harmonised dataset also suggest that older people age by following four distinct pathways. The impact of lifestyle behaviours within the harmonised dataset will be investigated and also presented.

INEQUALITIES IN HEALTHY AGING: THE DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT OF EDUCATION AND WEALTH ACROSS COHORT STUDIES

Several studies have investigated longitudinal changes in health status and functional ability but few have examined whether inequalities in healthy ageing varied across different countries. The aim of this study is to investigate trajectories of health metric scores (generated in previous symposium abstract) over the ageing process and examine the impact of education and wealth on the trajectories across eight cohorts in the ATHLOS consortium (N=135,828) using multilevel regression modelling. After adjusting for age, gender and study, higher levels of education (9.52; 95% CI: 9.30, 9.74) and wealth (8.06; 95% CI: 7.84, 8.28) were associated with higher baseline scores but had minimal impacts on decline rates. These effect sizes varied across different cohort studies and the inequality gradient was found to be strongest in the Health Retirement Study from US. Future research may investigate potential mechanisms which might explain the differential impact of education and wealth in different societies.

CREATION OF A COMMON METRIC OF HEALTH STATUS IN THE HARMONIZED DATASET OF THE ATHLOS PROJECT

Although life longevity has increased across the world, evidence suggests some heterogeneity of the ageing process across individuals. To investigate different ageing patterns, the ATHLOS project harmonised data from 411,000 individuals across 17 existing cohort studies. The harmonised dataset provides comparable information on functioning measures, cognition, mental health, sociodemographic and lifestyle behaviours. To measure the process of healthy ageing across time and cohorts, we employed a Bayesian Multilevel Item Response Theory(IRT) and created a common metric of health status by using items of functioning. The IRT measurement model includes parameters describing the difficulty and discriminatory power of each item. We adopted the Bayesian Multilevel framework as it allows item parameters to vary among studies and the simultaneous estimation of all parameters under a Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) method. Finally, we assessed the predictive validity of the metric against mortality by performing a Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve analysis.

Healthy ageing trajectories and lifestyle behaviour: the Mexican Health and Aging Study

Projections show that the number of people above 60 years old will triple by 2050 in Mexico. Nevertheless, ageing is characterised by great variability in the health status. In this study, we aimed to identify trajectories of health and their associations with lifestyle factors in a national representative cohort study of older Mexicans. We used secondary data of 14,143 adults from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS). A metric of health, based on the conceptual framework of functional ability, was mapped onto four waves (2001, 2003, 2012, 2015) and created by applying Bayesian multilevel Item Response Theory (IRT). Conditional Growth Mixture Modelling (GMM) was used to identify latent classes of individuals with similar trajectories and examine the impact of physical activity, smoking and alcohol on those. Conditional on sociodemographic and lifestyle behaviour four latent classes were suggested: high-stable, moderate-stable, low-stable and decliners. Participants who did not engage in physical activity, were current or previous smokers and did not consume alcohol at baseline were more likely to be in the trajectory with the highest deterioration (i.e. decliners). This study confirms ageing heterogeneity and the positive influence of a healthy lifestyle. These results provide the ground for new policies.

Prevalence of multimorbidity in community settings: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

BACKGROUND

With ageing world populations, multimorbidity (presence of two or more chronic diseases in the same individual) becomes a major concern in public health. Although multimorbidity is associated with age, its prevalence varies. This systematic review aimed to summarise and meta-analyse the prevalence of multimorbidity in high, low- and middle-income countries (HICs and LMICs).

METHODS

Studies were identified by searching electronic databases (Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Global Health, Web of Science and Cochrane Library). The term 'multimorbidity' and its various spellings were used, alongside 'prevalence' or 'epidemiology'. Quality assessment employed the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Overall and stratified analyses according to multimorbidity operational definitions, HICs/LMICs status, gender and age were performed. A random-effects model for meta-analysis was used.

RESULTS

Seventy community-based studies (conducted in 18 HICs and 31 LMICs) were included in the final sample. Sample sizes ranged from 264 to 162,464. The overall pooled prevalence of multimorbidity was 33.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 30.0-36.3%). There was a considerable difference in the pooled estimates between HICs and LMICs, with prevalence being 37.9% (95% CI: 32.5-43.4%) and 29.7% (26.4-33.0%), respectively. Heterogeneity across studies was high for both overall and stratified analyses (I 2 > 99%). A sensitivity analysis showed that none of the reviewed studies skewed the overall pooled estimates.

CONCLUSION

A large proportion of the global population, especially those aged 65+, is affected by multimorbidity. To allow accurate estimations of disease burden, and effective disease management and resources distribution, a standardised operationalisation of multimorbidity is needed.

Associations of Lifestyle Behaviour and Healthy Ageing in Five Latin American and the Caribbean Countries-A 10/66 Population-Based Cohort Study

Latin American and the Caribbean countries exhibit high life expectancy and projections show that they will experience the fastest growth of older people in the following years. As people live longer, it is important to maximise the opportunity to age healthily. We aimed to examine the associations of lifestyle behaviours with healthy ageing in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Peru, Mexico and Puerto Rico, part of the 10/66 study. Residents 65 years old and over (n = 10,900) were interviewed between 2003 and 2010. In the baseline survey, we measured four healthy behaviours: Physical activity, non-smoking, moderate drinking and fruits or vegetables consumption. Healthy ageing was conceptualised within the functional ability framework over a median of 4 years follow-up. Logistic models were calculated per country and then pooled together with fixed-effects meta-analysis. People engaging in physical activity and consuming fruits or vegetables had increased odds of healthy ageing in the follow-up (OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 2.20–3.03; OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.06–1.44, respectively). Compared with participants engaging in none or one healthy behaviour, the ORs of participants engaging in two, three or four healthy behaviours increased in a linear way (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.40–1.84; OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.94–2.69; OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.54–3.92, respectively). Our findings highlight the importance of awareness of a healthy lifestyle behaviour among older people.

Associations of smoking and alcohol consumption with healthy ageing: a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

OBJECTIVES

The number of older people is growing across the world; however, quantitative synthesis of studies examining the impact of lifestyle factors on the ageing process is rare. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies to synthesise the associations of smoking and alcohol consumption with healthy ageing (HA).

METHODS

Major electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2017 (prospectively registered systematic reviews registration number CRD42016038130). Studies were assessed for methodological quality. Random-effect meta-analysis was performed to calculate pooled ORs and 95% CI.

RESULTS

In total, we identified 28 studies (n=184 543); 27 studies reported results on smoking, 22 on alcohol consumption. 23 studies reported a significant positive association of never or former smoking with HA and 4 non-significant. 12 studies reported a significant positive association of alcohol consumption with HA, 9 no association and 1 negative. Meta-analysis revealed increased pooled OR of HA for never smokers compared with current smokers (2.36, 95% CI 2.03 to 2.75), never smokers compared with former smokers (1.32, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.41), former or never smokers compared with current smokers (1.72, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.47), never smokers compared with past or current smokers (1.29, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.43); drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.28, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.52), light drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.12, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.22), moderate drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.35, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.97) and high drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.44). There was considerable heterogeneity in the definition and measurement of HA and alcohol consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

There is consistent evidence from longitudinal studies that smoking is negatively associated with HA. The associations of alcohol consumption with HA are equivocal. Future research should focus on the implementation of a single metric of HA, on the use of consistent drinking assessment among studies and on a full-range of confounding adjustment. Our research also highlighted the limited research on ageing in low-and-middle-income countries.

Physical activity and healthy ageing: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Older people constitute a significant proportion of the total population and their number is projected to increase by more than half by 2030. This increasing probability of late survival comes with considerable individual, economic and social impact. Physical activity (PA) can influence the ageing process but the specific relationship with healthy ageing (HA) is unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies examining the associations of PA with HA. Studies were identified from a systematic search across major electronic databases from inception as January 2017. Random-effect meta-analysis was performed to calculate a pooled effect size (ES) and 95% CIs. Studies were assessed for methodological quality.

RESULTS

Overall, 23 studies were identified including 174,114 participants (30% men) with age ranges from 20 to 87 years old. There was considerable heterogeneity in the definition and measurement of HA and PA. Most of the identified studies reported a significant positive association of PA with HA, six reported a non-significant. Meta-analysis revealed that PA is positively associated with HA (ES: 1.39, 95% CI=1.23-1.57, n=17) even if adjusted for publication bias (ES: 1.27, 95% CI=1.11-1.45, n=20).

CONCLUSIONS

There is consistent evidence from longitudinal observational studies that PA is positively associated with HA, regardless of definition and measurement. Future research should focus on the implementation of a single metric of HA, on the use of objective measures for PA assessment and on a full-range of confounding adjustment. In addition, our research indicated the limited research on ageing in low-and-middle income countries.