Trajectories of body mass index from early adulthood to late midlife and incidence of total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: findings from a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories from early adulthood to late midlife and risk of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis.

METHODS

24,368 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with weight collected during 1990-1994, 1995-1998, and 2003-2007, recalled weight at age 18-21 years, and height measured during 1990-1994 were included. Incident TKA from 2003 to 2007 to December 2018 was determined by linking cohort records to the National Joint Replacement Registry.

RESULTS

Using group-based trajectory modelling, six distinct trajectories (TR) of BMI from early adulthood (age 18-21 years) to late midlife (approximately 62 years) were identified: lower normal to normal BMI (TR1; 19.7% population), normal BMI to borderline overweight (TR2; 36.7%), normal BMI to overweight (TR3; 26.8%), overweight to borderline obese (TR4; 3.5%), normal BMI to class 1 obesity (TR5; 10.1%), overweight to class 2 obesity (TR6; 3.2%). Over 12.4 years, 1,328 (5.4%) had TKA. The hazard ratios for TKA increased in all TR compared to TR1 [from TR2: 2.03 (95% CI 1.64-2.52) to TR6: 8.59 (6.44-11.46)]. 28.4% of TKA could be prevented if individuals followed the trajectory one lower, an average weight reduction of 8-12 kg from early adulthood to late midlife, saving $AUS 373 million/year. Most reduction would occur in TR2 (population attributable fraction 37.9%, 95% CI 26.7-47.3%) and TR3 (26.8%, 20.0-31.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention of weight gain from young adulthood to late midlife in order to reduce overweight/obesity has the potential to significantly reduce the cost and burden of TKA.

Effects of Vitamin D Supplementation on Telomere Length: An Analysis of Data from the Randomised Controlled D-Health Trial

OBJECTIVES

Observational studies have suggested that a higher 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration may be associated with longer telomere length; however, this has not been investigated in randomised controlled trials. We conducted an ancillary study within a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of monthly vitamin D (the D-Health Trial) for the prevention of all-cause mortality, conducted from 2014 to 2020, to assess the effect of vitamin D supplementation on telomere length (measured as the telomere to single copy gene (T/S) ratio).

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTION

Participants were Australians aged 60-84 years and we randomly selected 1,519 D-Health participants (vitamin D: n=744; placebo: n=775) for this analysis. We used quantitative polymerase chain reaction to measure the relative telomere length (T/S ratio) at 4 or 5 years after randomisation. We compared the mean T/S ratio between the vitamin D and placebo groups to assess the effect of vitamin D supplementation on relative telomere length, using a linear regression model with adjustment for age, sex, and state which were used to stratify the randomisation.

RESULTS

The mean T/S ratio was 0.70 for both groups (standard deviation 0.18 and 0.16 for the vitamin D and placebo groups respectively). The adjusted mean difference (vitamin D minus placebo) was -0.001 (95% CI -0.02 to 0.02). There was no effect modification by age, sex, body mass index, or predicted baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, routinely supplementing older adults, who are largely vitamin D replete, with monthly doses of vitamin D is unlikely to influence telomere length.

Coffee, tea, and caffeine intake and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis mortality in a pooled analysis of eight prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Caffeine is associated with a lower risk of some neurological diseases, but few prospective studies have investigated caffeine intake and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) mortality. We therefore determined associations between coffee, tea and caffeine intake, and risk of ALS mortality.

METHODS

We conducted pooled analyses of eight international, prospective cohort studies, including 351 565 individuals (120 688 men and 230 877 women). We assessed coffee, tea and caffeine intake using validated food-frequency questionnaires administered at baseline. We used Cox regression to estimate study- and sex-specific risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ALS mortality, which were then pooled using a random-effects model. We conducted analyses using cohort-specific tertiles, absolute common cut-points and continuous measures of all exposures.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 545 ALS deaths were documented. We did not observe statistically significant associations between coffee, tea or caffeine intake and risk of ALS mortality. The pooled multivariable risk ratio (MVRR) for ≥3 cups per day vs. >0 to <1 cup per day was 1.04 (95% CI, 0.74-1.47) for coffee and 1.17 (95% CI, 0.77-1.79) for tea. The pooled MVRR comparing the highest with the lowest tertile of caffeine intake (mg/day) was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.80-1.23). No statistically significant results were observed when exposures were modeled as tertiles or continuously.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results do not support associations between coffee, tea or total caffeine intake and risk of ALS mortality.

Dietary inflammatory index or Mediterranean diet score as risk factors for total and cardiovascular mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Dietary patterns are associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to examine associations of the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) and the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) with total, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study; and compare the strengths of the associations.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In our prospective cohort study of 41,513 men and women aged 40-69 years, a food frequency questionnaire was completed at baseline and mortality data were obtained via linkage with local and national registries over an average of 19 years follow up. At baseline, questionnaires were completed and physical measures and blood samples taken. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, alcohol consumption, sex, region of origin, personal history of CVD or diabetes and family history of CVD, were used to assess associations between dietary scores and mortality. More Mediterranean or less inflammatory diets were associated with lower total, CVD and CHD mortality. The hazard ratio for total mortality comparing the highest and lowest quintiles was 1.16 (95%CI: 1.08-1.24) for DII; and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.80-0.93) comparing the highest and lowest three categories of MDS. Using the Bayesian information criterion, there was no evidence that the DII score was more strongly associated with total and CVD mortality than was the MDS.

CONCLUSIONS

The MDI and the DII show similar associations with total and cardiovascular mortality, consistent with the consensus that plant-based diets are beneficial for health.

Ought Low Alcohol Intake to be Promoted for Health Reasons?

There is increasingly widespread acceptance that alcohol taken in moderation by the population aged 35 years or older reduces the risks of ischaemic heart disease and all-cause mortality. Ten causal criteria are used to evaluate the scientific evidence for a protective effect of low alcohol intake on ischaemic heart disease. Inferences for public policy are then assessed using the principles of beneficence, non-maleficence, justice and autonomy to support a framework of nine ethical considerations: intervention versus causation; effect modification by gender, smoking, biogenetic and other factors; inappropriate adoption of recommendations; competing hazards between atherosclerotic disease and cancer; opportunity cost; equity of access; the value system used to judge outcomes; the degree of social influence warranted; and consent and responsibility. We conclude that in the absence of more adequate scientific knowledge and informed community debate it is unethical to promote low alcohol intake as a preventive health measure.

Novel associations between blood DNA methylation and body mass index in middle-aged and older adults

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

There is increasing evidence of a relationship between blood DNA methylation and body mass index (BMI). We aimed to assess associations of BMI with individual methylation measures (CpGs) through a cross-sectional genome-wide DNA methylation association study and a longitudinal analysis of repeated measurements over time.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip, DNA methylation measures were determined in baseline peripheral blood samples from 5361 adults recruited to the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) and selected for nested case-control studies, 2586 because they were subsequently diagnosed with cancer (cases) and 2775 as controls. For a subset of 1088 controls, these measures were repeated using blood samples collected at wave 2 follow-up, a median of 11 years later; weight was measured at both time points. Associations between BMI and blood DNA methylation were assessed using linear mixed-effects regression models adjusted for batch effects and potential confounders. These were applied to cases and controls separately, with results combined through fixed-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Cross-sectional analysis identified 310 CpGs associated with BMI with P<1.0 × 10^-7, 225 of which had not been reported previously. Of these 225 novel associations, 172 were replicated (P<0.05) using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We also replicated using MCCS data (P<0.05) 335 of 392 associations previously reported with P<1.0 × 10^-7, including 60 that had not been replicated before. Associations between change in BMI and change in methylation were observed for 34 of the 310 strongest signals in our cross-sectional analysis, including 7 that had not been replicated using the ARIC study.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these findings suggest that BMI is associated with blood DNA methylation at a large number of CpGs across the genome, several of which are located in or near genes involved in ATP-binding cassette transportation, tumour necrosis factor signalling, insulin resistance and lipid metabolism.

Associations between hip bone mineral density, aortic calcification and cardiac workload in community-dwelling older Australians

In older adults, lower bone density in the proximal femur was associated with increased heart burden, and this association was linked to calcification in the aorta. These results were seen in women but not in men.

PURPOSE

To determine whether there is an association between lower bone mineral density (BMD) and increased cardiac workload in older adults, and if this association was independent of abdominal aortic calcification (AAC).

METHODS

Three hundred thirty-seven participants [mean ± SD age = 70 ± 5 years and BMI = 28 ± 5 kg/m², 61% females] had BMD determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and AAC determined by radiography. Aortic calcification score (ACS) was determined visually in the L1-L4 vertebrae (range 0-24). Systolic blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) were measured. The rate pressure product (RPP), a measure of cardiac workload, was determined by multiplying BP and HR.

RESULTS

AAC was present in 205 (61%) participants. Mean ± SD RPP was 9120 ± 1823; range was 5424-18,537. In all participants, ACS was positively associated with log-transformed RPP [LnRPP] (β = 0.011, p < 0.001), and severe calcification was positively associated with LnRPP (β = 0.083, p = 0.004 relative to no calcification). In sex-stratified analyses, these associations were significant only in females. Lower odds of any AAC were observed per 1 g/cm² increment in femoral neck BMD (OR = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.95). A similar trend was evident in women separately (OR = 0.05, 95% CI 0-1.17) but not men. In all participants, femoral neck (β = -0.20, p = 0.04) and total hip BMD (β = -0.17, p = 0.04) were inversely associated with LnRPP after multivariate adjustment. Adjusting additionally for AAC reduced the strength of the association in femoral neck (β = -0.19, p = 0.05) but not total hip BMD (β = -0.17, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

Lower BMD was marginally, but significantly with increased LnRPP, and this relationship was partially mediated by AAC suggesting that older adults, particularly females, with osteoporosis may have an increased cardiovascular risk.

Dietary Quality Is Associated with Abdominal Aortic Calcification: A Mean of 18-Year Longitudinal Study in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the association between baseline and changes in dietary quality assessed by the Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010) and abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) among community-dwelling older adults.

DESIGN

Population-based longitudinal study.

SETTING

A subset of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS).

PARTICIPANTS

262 community-dwelling adults (60% female) aged 53 ± 5 years at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

Dietary intake was assessed using validated Food Frequency Questionnaires at baseline (1990-1994) and follow-up (2010-2011). AAC was evaluated by radiography and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at follow-up.

RESULTS

Higher baseline AHEI-2010 score was associated with lower AAC severity by radiography [OR (95% CI) for Tertile 3 VS Tertile 1: 0.53 (0.29-0.99)] after adjustment for gender, age, physical activity, smoking, BMI, systolic blood pressure, plasma total cholesterol, calcium and energy intake. The association between AHEI-2010 and AAC severity by DXA was also significant in the multivariate-adjusted model [OR (95% CI) for Tertile 3 VS Tertile 1: 0.38 (0.20-0.70)]. Changes in AHEI-2010 over 18 years were not associated with AAC severity.

CONCLUSION

Baseline but not the changes in AHEI-2010 was inversely associated with the risk of AAC severity suggesting that a high quality diet might help prevent or delay the progression of AAC in community-dwelling older adults and the benefits might be manifested over the long-term.

Dietary inflammatory index, Mediterranean diet score, and lung cancer: a prospective study

PURPOSE

To investigate prospectively the associations of Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) and Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) with lung cancer.

METHODS

We used data from men and women aged 40-69 years at recruitment in 1990-1994, who were participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (n = 35,303). A total of 403 incident lung cancer cases were identified over an average 18-year follow-up. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for smoking status and other risk factors, with age as the time metric.

RESULTS

An inverse correlation was observed between the DII and MDS (ρ = -0.45), consistent with a higher DII being pro-inflammatory and less 'healthy,' while a high MDS reflects a 'healthier' diet. The DII was positively associated with risk of lung cancer in current smokers [HRQ4 vs Q1 = 1.70 (1.02, 2.82); Ptrend = 0.008] (p interaction between DII quartiles and smoking status = 0.03). The MDS was inversely associated with lung cancer risk overall [HR7-9 vs 0-3 = 0.64 (0.45, 0.90); Ptrend = 0.005] and for current smokers (HR7-9 vs 0-3 = 0.38 (0.19, 0.75); Ptrend = 0.005) (p interaction between MDS categories and smoking status = 0.31).

CONCLUSIONS

The MDS showed an inverse association with lung cancer risk, especially for current smokers. A high DII, indicating a more pro-inflammatory diet, was associated with risk of lung cancer only for current smokers. A healthy diet may reduce the risk of lung cancer, especially in smokers.

Dairy products and pancreatic cancer risk: a pooled analysis of 14 cohort studies

Pancreatic cancer has few early symptoms, is usually diagnosed at late stages, and has a high case-fatality rate. Identifying modifiable risk factors is crucial to reducing pancreatic cancer morbidity and mortality. Prior studies have suggested that specific foods and nutrients, such as dairy products and constituents, may play a role in pancreatic carcinogenesis. In this pooled analysis of the primary data from 14 prospective cohort studies, 2212 incident pancreatic cancer cases were identified during follow-up among 862 680 individuals. Adjusting for smoking habits, personal history of diabetes, alcohol intake, body mass index (BMI), and energy intake, multivariable study-specific hazard ratios (MVHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards models and then pooled using a random effects model. There was no association between total milk intake and pancreatic cancer risk (MVHR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.82-1.18 comparing ≥500 with 1-69.9 g/day). Similarly, intakes of low-fat milk, whole milk, cheese, cottage cheese, yogurt, and ice-cream were not associated with pancreatic cancer risk. No statistically significant association was observed between dietary (MVHR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.77-1.19) and total calcium (MVHR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.71-1.12) intake and pancreatic cancer risk overall when comparing intakes ≥1300 with <500 mg/day. In addition, null associations were observed for dietary and total vitamin D intake and pancreatic cancer risk. Findings were consistent within sex, smoking status, and BMI strata or when the case definition was limited to pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Overall, these findings do not support the hypothesis that consumption of dairy foods, calcium, or vitamin D during adulthood is associated with pancreatic cancer risk.

Dietary patterns as predictors of successful ageing

OBJECTIVES

To examine associations between dietary patterns identified by factor analysis, and successful ageing.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study with diet measured in 1990-4, and successful ageing in 2003-7. Ordered logistic regression with outcome determined as dead/usual ageing/successful ageing was used to examine associations with quintile groups of dietary factor scores.

PARTICIPANTS

Men and women (n=6308), without history of major illness at baseline, and aged >70 years at follow-up, or who had died before follow-up but would have been aged >70 at the commencement of follow-up, from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study.

MEASUREMENTS

Frequencies of intake of 121 foods at baseline were collected in a food frequency questionnaire. Anthropometry and other health and lifestyle data were collected. At follow-up, questionnaire data relating to mental health, physical function and medical history were used to define successful ageing.

RESULTS

Four dietary factors were identified, characterized by higher loadings for (1) vegetables; (2) fruit, (3) feta, legumes, salad, olive oil, and inverse loadings for tea, margarine, cake, sweet biscuits and puddings; (4) meat, white bread, savoury pastry dishes and fried foods. In models excluding body size, the second factor 'Fruit' was positively associated with successful ageing (OR in top 20% vs lowest 20% of score 1.31, 95%CI (1.05-1.63), p trend across quintile groups 0.001); while the fourth factor 'Meat/fatty foods' was inversely associated (OR in top 20% vs lowest 20% of score 0.69, 95%CI (0.55-0.86), p trend across quintile groups 0.001). Factors 1 and 3 did not show significant associations with successful ageing. The association for 'Fruit' was little altered after adjustment for body size, while for 'Meat/fatty foods' the association was somewhat attenuated.

CONCLUSION

A dietary pattern including plenty of fruit while limiting meat and fried foods may improve the likelihood of ageing successfully.

Does a Mediterranean diet reduce the mortality risk associated with diabetes: evidence from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Diabetes is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet southern European migrants to Australia with high rates of type 2 diabetes have relatively low CVD mortality. Our aim was to determine whether a Mediterranean style diet could reduce mortality in people with diabetes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants included 16,610 males and 23,860 females from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study; 25% were born in Greece or Italy, and 2150 had previously been diagnosed with diabetes or had elevated blood glucose at baseline (1990-94). Data on demographic, behavioral and physical risk factors were also collected. A personal Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) was calculated using data from a validated 121-item food frequency questionnaire. Total and CVD mortality data were available up to 2003. Diabetes (new and known) at baseline, was associated with total mortality (men HR 1.43, 95%CI 1.26-1.62; women HR 1.86 95%CI 1.58-2.18), and CVD mortality (men HR 1.53, 95%CI 1.21-1.94; women HR 2.10 95%CI 1.48-2.97) in multivariate models. There was no evidence that glucose tolerance modified the associations between MDS and total or CVD mortality (p interaction all > 0.16). The HRs for total mortality per unit of MDS were 0.96 (95% CI 0.93-0.99) in men and 0.94 (95% CI 0.92-0.97) in women. The HRs for CVD mortality per unit of MDS were 0.94 (95% CI 0.89-0.99) in men and 0.94 (95% CI 0.87-1.01) in women.

CONCLUSION

Our results add to the evidence supporting the benefit of a Mediterranean style diet for people with type 2 diabetes.

NMR-determined lipoprotein subclass profile is associated with dietary composition and body size

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Dyslipidemia is influenced by diet and body habitus. The Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy lipoprotein subclass profile (NMR-LSP) is associated with diabetes and its vascular complications; and an NMR-LSP featuring large VLDL particles and small LDL and HDL particles is linked with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Thus interventions which favourably modify NMR-LSP may reduce risk for diabetes, its complications and CVD. The study aim was to investigate the associations between NMR-LSP, dietary composition and body size measures using data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS).

METHODS AND RESULTS

NMR-LSP was assessed in 313 men and 403 women (median age 54 years) randomly selected from a community-based cohort study. Diet was assessed using a specifically developed food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), and body size was assessed by body mass index (BMI) or waist:hips ratio (WHR). To simplify the 15 NMR-LSP variables, factor analysis was used to derive a single factor. Multivariate linear regression with this factor score as the dependent variable demonstrated that in men, total PUFA and n-6 dietary fat intake and BMI were associated with a more atherogenic NMR-LSP pattern; while in women dietary glycemic index and WHR demonstrated positive associations, and n-3 fat intake an inverse association.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a single factor score to summarize the NMR-LSP that has the benefit of combining all aspects of the NMR-LSP and accounting for correlations between them. We have shown correlations between the NMR-LSP and body size and dietary composition.

Circulating sex hormones and breast cancer risk factors in postmenopausal women: reanalysis of 13 studies

Background:

Breast cancer risk for postmenopausal women is positively associated with circulating concentrations of oestrogens and androgens, but the determinants of these hormones are not well understood.

Methods:

Cross-sectional analyses of breast cancer risk factors and circulating hormone concentrations in more than 6000 postmenopausal women controls in 13 prospective studies.

Results:

Concentrations of all hormones were lower in older than younger women, with the largest difference for dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), whereas sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) was higher in the older women. Androgens were lower in women with bilateral ovariectomy than in naturally postmenopausal women, with the largest difference for free testosterone. All hormones were higher in obese than lean women, with the largest difference for free oestradiol, whereas SHBG was lower in obese women. Smokers of 15+ cigarettes per day had higher levels of all hormones than non-smokers, with the largest difference for testosterone. Drinkers of 20+ g alcohol per day had higher levels of all hormones, but lower SHBG, than non-drinkers, with the largest difference for DHEAS. Hormone concentrations were not strongly related to age at menarche, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy or family history of breast cancer.

Conclusion:

Sex hormone concentrations were strongly associated with several established or suspected risk factors for breast cancer, and may mediate the effects of these factors on breast cancer risk.

Second to fourth digit ratio (2D:4D) and prostate cancer risk in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

Background:

The ratio of the lengths of index and ring fingers (2D:4D) is a marker of prenatal exposure to sex hormones, with low 2D:4D being indicative of high prenatal androgen action. Recent studies have reported a strong association between 2D:4D and risk of prostate cancer.

Methods:

A total of 6258 men participating in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study had 2D:4D assessed. Of these men, we identified 686 incident prostate cancer cases. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for a standard deviation increase in 2D:4D.

Results:

No association was observed between 2D:4D and prostate cancer risk overall (HRs 1.00; 95% CIs, 0.92–1.08 for right, 0.93–1.08 for left). We observed a weak inverse association between 2D:4D and risk of prostate cancer for age <60, however 95% CIs included unity for all observed ages.

Conclusion:

Our results are not consistent with an association between 2D:4D and overall prostate cancer risk, but we cannot exclude a weak inverse association between 2D:4D and early onset prostate cancer risk.

Body mass index in early adulthood and colorectal cancer risk for carriers and non-carriers of germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes

BACKGROUND

Carriers of germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes have a high risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but the modifiers of this risk are not well established. We estimated an association between body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood and subsequent risk of CRC for carriers and, as a comparison, estimated the association for non-carriers.

METHODS

A weighted Cox regression was used to analyse height and weight at 20 years reported by 1324 carriers of MMR gene mutations (500 MLH1, 648 MSH2, 117 MSH6 and 59 PMS2) and 1219 non-carriers from the Colon Cancer Family Registry.

RESULTS

During 122,304 person-years of observation, we observed diagnoses of CRC for 659 carriers (50%) and 36 non-carriers (3%). For carriers, the risk of CRC increased by 30% for each 5 kg m(-2) increment in BMI in early adulthood (hazard ratio, HR: 1.30; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.08-1.58; P=0.01), and increased by 64% for non-carriers (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.02-2.64; P=0.04) after adjusting for sex, country, cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking (and the MMR gene that was mutated in carriers). The difference in HRs for carriers and non-carriers was not statistically significant (P=0.50). For MLH1 and PMS2 (MutLα heterodimer) mutation carriers combined, the corresponding increase was 36% (HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.05-1.76; P=0.02). For MSH2 and MSH6 (MutSα heterodimer) mutation carriers combined, the HR was 1.26 (95% CI: 0.96-1.65; P=0.09). There was no significant difference between the HRs for MutLα and MutSα heterodimer carriers (P=0.56).

CONCLUSION

Body mass index in early adulthood is positively associated with risk of CRC for MMR gene mutation carriers and non-carriers.

Dietary patterns and risk of breast cancer

Background:

Evidence is emerging that prudent/healthy dietary patterns might be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer.

Methods:

Using data from the prospective Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, we applied principal factor analysis to 124 foods and beverages to identify dietary patterns and estimated their association with breast cancer risk overall and by tumour characteristics using Cox regression.

Results:

During an average of 14.1 years of follow-up of 20 967 women participants, 815 invasive breast cancers were diagnosed. Among the four dietary factors that we identified, only that characterised by high consumption of fruit and salad was associated with a reduced risk, with stronger associations observed for tumours not expressing oestrogen (ER) and progesterone receptors (PR). Compared with women in the lowest quintile of the factor score, the hazard ratio for women in the highest quintile was 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.70–1.21; test for trend, P=0.5) for ER-positive or PR-positive tumours and 0.48 (95% CI=0.26–0.86; test for trend, P=0.002) for ER-negative and PR-negative tumours (test for homogeneity, P=0.01).

Conclusion:

Our study provides additional support for the hypothesis that a dietary pattern rich in fruit and salad might protect against invasive breast cancer and that the effect might be stronger for ER- and PR-negative tumours.

Plasma concentration of Propionibacterium acnes antibodies and prostate cancer risk: results from an Australian population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

Recent studies in prostatic tissue suggest that Propionibacterium acnes (P. acnes), a bacterium associated with acne that normally lives on the skin, is the most prevalent bacterium in the prostate and in men with benign prostatic hyperplasia. Its prevalence is higher in samples from patients subsequently diagnosed with prostate cancer. The aim of our study was to test whether circulating levels of P. acnes antibodies are associated with prostate cancer risk and tumour characteristics using plasma samples from a population-based case-control study.

METHODS

We measured plasma concentration of P. acnes antibodies for 809 cases and 584 controls using a recently developed ELISA assay. We compared antibody titres between cases and controls using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for batch and variables associated with the study design (i.e., age, year of selection and centre). The primary analysis included P. acnes titres in the model as a dichotomous variable using the median value for controls as the cut-off value.

RESULTS

P. acnes antibody titres for both cases and controls ranged from 1 : 16 (i.e., low concentration) to 1 : 65,536 (i.e., high concentration; median value=1 : 1024). The odds ratio for prostate cancer associated with titres at or above the median value was 0.73 (95% CI 0.58-0.91, P=0.005). The association appeared to be particularly strong for advanced prostate cancer (AJCC Stage grouping III-IV) for which the odds ratio was 0.59 (95% CI 0.43-0.81, P=0.001) but there was insufficient evidence that the association differed by tumour stage (p heterogeneity=0.07).

CONCLUSION

These results need to be confirmed in prospective studies but they are consistent with the hypothesis that P. acnes has a role in prostate cancer.

Consumption of animal products, their nutrient components and postmenopausal circulating steroid hormone concentrations

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Little is known about nutritional factors that influence circulating concentrations of steroid hormones, which are consistently associated with risk of breast cancer for postmenopausal women. We aimed to investigate the association between consumption of animal products and the plasma concentrations of steroid hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG).

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis was conducted on plasma from 766 naturally postmenopausal women. We measured plasma concentrations of steroid hormones and SHBG, and estimated dietary intakes using a 121-item food frequency questionnaire. Log-transformed values of hormone concentrations were regressed on quartiles of intake of meat and dairy products among food items, and fats, proteins and cholesterol among nutrient intake.

RESULTS

Total red and fresh red meat consumption was negatively associated with SHBG levels (P for trend=0.04 and <0.01, respectively). Mean SHBG concentrations were approximately 8% and 13% lower for women in the highest quartile compared with the lowest quartile of total red and fresh red meat consumption, respectively. Positive associations were observed between dairy product consumption and total and free estradiol concentrations (P for trend=0.02 and 0.03, respectively). Mean concentrations of total and free estradiol were 15 and 14% higher for women in the highest quartile of dairy product consumption than for those in the lowest quartile, respectively. No associations were observed with consumption of processed meat, chicken, fish, eggs, cholesterol, fats or protein.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that greater consumption of total red and fresh red meat and dairy products might influence circulating concentrations of SHBG and estradiol, respectively. Confirmation and further investigation is required.

Immunoblotting using multiple antigens is essential to demonstrate the true risk of Helicobacter pylori infection for gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) for detection of Helicobacter pylori infection, using IgG antibodies, may significantly underestimate the association with gastric cancer.

AIM

To compare associations between H. pylori and cardia (CGC) and noncardia gastric cancer (NCGC) using ELISA and immunoblotting and determine the effect of atrophic gastritis on detection.

METHODS

Nested case-control study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Helicobacter pylori antibodies were detected in subjects with CGC (n = 18), NCGC (n = 34) and controls (n = 69 and 134 respectively) using ELISA (pylori DTect) and immunoblot (Helicoblot 2.1). Pepsinogen I levels were measured using ELISA.

RESULTS

Using ELISA, H. pylori-positivity in the CGC group was 33% vs. 35% in controls [odds ratio (OR = 0.9, 95% CI: 0.3-2.7)], while that in the NCGC group was 79% vs. 63% in controls [OR = 2.3 (95% CI: 0.9-5.8)]. Based on immunoblotting, H. pylori-positivity in the CGC group was 44% vs. 39% in their controls [OR = 1.2 (95% CI: 0.4-3.4)], while that in the NCGC group was 94% vs. 63% in controls [OR = 10.6 (95% CI: 2.4-47.4)]. Pepsinogen I levels in the NCGC cases and controls showed the lowest median level (4 ng/mL) to be in subjects negative by ELISA but positive by immunoblotting.

CONCLUSION

Immunoblotting improves the accuracy of H. pylori studies involving gastric cancer.

The natural history of bone marrow lesions in community-based adults with no clinical knee osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

Although bone marrow lesions (BML) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis, their natural history in a healthy population is unknown. This study in a healthy, pain-free population aimed to examine the natural history of BML; factors associated with incidence and progression of BML over 2 years and whether incident BML are associated with the development of pain.

METHODS

271 subjects with no clinical knee osteoarthritis, being pain free at baseline, underwent magnetic resonance imaging of their dominant knee at baseline and 2 years later. The presence of BML was assessed.

RESULTS

In knees initially free of BML, incident BML developed in 14% of people over the study period. Increased body mass index (BMI; odds ratio (OR) 1.15, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.2, p = 0.001) was associated with incident BML. Those who developed a BML were more likely to develop knee pain compared with those in whom no BML developed (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.2 to 15.1, p = 0.03). Among those in whom BML were present at baseline, 46% completely resolved. There was no association between age, gender and BMI and persistence of BML over 2 years.

CONCLUSION

In this healthy population, the rate of incident BML is lower than previously described in a population with osteoarthritis. Incident BML are associated with increased BMI and the development of pain. Approximately half the BML present at baseline resolved. These data suggest that in pain-free people with no clinical knee osteoarthritis, BML are reversible and may provide a target for interventions aimed at the prevention of knee osteoarthritis.

Effect of fatty acids on bone marrow lesions and knee cartilage in healthy, middle-aged subjects without clinical knee osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

There is evidence that omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids alleviate the progression of osteoarthritis (OA). However, little work has been done to investigate the effect of fatty acids on bone marrow lesions and knee cartilage in healthy subjects. We examined this in a cohort of healthy middle-aged subjects without clinical knee OA.

METHODS

Two hundred and ninety-three healthy adults without knee pain or injury were recruited from an existing community-based cohort. Intakes of fatty acids and food sources of these were estimated from a food frequency questionnaire at baseline. Tibial cartilage volume, tibial plateau bone area, tibiofemoral cartilage defects and bone marrow lesions were assessed approximately 10 years later using magnetic resonance imaging.

RESULTS

In multivariate analyses, higher intakes of monounsaturated fatty acids (OR=2.14, 95% CI 1.04-4.39, P=0.04), total (OR=1.77, 95% CI 1.13-2.77, P=0.01) and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (OR=1.69, 95% CI 1.10-2.61, P=0.02) were associated with an increased risk of bone marrow lesions. Intake of fatty acids was not significantly associated with cartilage volume or cartilage defects.

CONCLUSION

These findings support the dietary recommendation towards a shift to foods rich in n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in order to maintain an optimal balance between dietary n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids, which is also important in the prevention of atherosclerosis. Although our findings will need to be confirmed in longitudinal studies, they suggest the potential of fatty acids to adversely effect the knee joint.

The relationship between the angle of the trochlear groove and patella cartilage and bone morphology--a cross-sectional study of healthy adults

OBJECTIVES

Although the geometry of the trochlear groove is considered important in the pathogenesis of patellofemoral joint pathology it is unclear how the shape of the trochlear groove relates to patella morphology. This cross-sectional study investigated the relationship between the shape of the trochlear groove and patella cartilage and bone morphology in healthy adults.

METHODS

Two hundred and ninety-seven healthy adults aged between 50 and 79 years with no clinical history of knee pain or pathology were examined using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). From the magnetic resonance (MR) images, the bony angles formed at the distal and proximal trochlear groove were measured, together with patella cartilage and bone volumes and patella cartilage defects.

RESULTS

After adjustment for potential confounders, there was an 8.70mm(3) (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.15, 15.26) increase in patella cartilage volume (P=0.009), with no increased prevalence of cartilage defects (odds ratio=0.99 (95% CI 0.96, 1.02), P=0.35), for every 1 degrees increase (i.e., as the angle became more flatter) at the distal trochlear groove. Moreover, there was a 53.86mm(3) (95% CI -90.26, -17.46) reduction in patella bone volume for every 1 degrees that the angle at the distal trochlear groove became more flattened (P=0.004). No significant association between the proximal trochlear groove angle and the patella cartilage or bone properties was observed.

CONCLUSION

A more flattened bony angle at the distal trochlear groove was associated with increased patella cartilage volume and reduced patella bone volume, but no increased prevalence of patella cartilage defects in adults with no history of knee pain or clinical disease. These cross-sectional findings suggest that a flattened distal trochlear groove may protect against degenerative patellofemoral conditions, such as osteoarthritis, but this will need to be confirmed in a longitudinal study.

A positive association of smoking and articular knee joint cartilage in healthy people

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether smoking affects knee cartilage in healthy adults by examining the association of tobacco use with tibial cartilage volume and tibiofemoral cartilage defects.

METHODS

Two hundred and ninety-seven healthy adult subjects were recruited from an existing cohort examining healthy aging, the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). Questionnaire data were obtained at recruitment to the MCCS in 1990-1994 and at magnetic resonance imaging to determine cartilage outcomes in 2003.

RESULTS

Tibial cartilage volume was positively associated with subjects who ever smoked as well as pack-years smoked, suggesting a dose-response. There was no association between smoking and presence of tibiofemoral cartilage defects.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that smoking is associated with increased tibial cartilage volume but not presence of tibiofemoral cartilage defects, providing further support for a beneficial effect on articular knee cartilage.

Alcohol intake, consumption pattern and beverage type, and the risk of Type 2 diabetes

AIMS

To examine associations between amount and frequency of alcohol consumption, and Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

A prospective study of 36 527 adults aged 40-69 at baseline. Incident cases of Type 2 diabetes were identified by questionnaire 4 years later. Sex-specific logistic regression models, adjusting for country of birth, dietary glycaemic index, energy intake and age, and in a second model body mass index (BMI) and waist-hip ratio (WHR), were used.

RESULTS

Diabetes status was ascertained for 31 422 (86%) participants, and 362 cases identified. Former drinkers had higher risks than lifetime abstainers. Female drinkers had lower risk than lifetime abstainers (ORs < 10 g/day 0.54, 95% CI 0.36-0.82; 10-19.9 g/day 0.57, 0.34-0.94; > or = 20 g/day 0.46, 0.24-0.88, P trend = 0.005). There was no relationship after adjustment for body size. For men, a weak inverse association was observed after adjustment for body size (ORs relative to lifetime abstainers: < 10 g/day 1.56, 0.95-2.55; 10-19.9 g/day 1.21, 0.69-2.10; 20-29.9 g/day 0.80, 0.40-1.60; = 30 g/day 0.86, 0.50-1.58, P trend = 0.036). Wine was the only beverage for which an inverse association was observed. Compared with men who did not drink in the week before baseline, men who drank > or = 210 g over 1-3 days had an increased risk of diabetes (OR 5.21, 1.79-15.19), while the same amount over more days did not increase risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Total alcohol intake was associated with reduced risk only in women. Alcohol from wine was associated with reduced risk of Type 2 diabetes. A high daily intake of alcohol, even on only 1-3 days a week, may increase the risk of diabetes in men.

Physical activity, insulin-like growth factor 1, insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3, and survival from colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Recent reports have shown that physical activity improves the outcome of patients with colorectal cancer as well as breast and prostate cancer. However, the mechanisms whereby physical activity reduces cancer mortality are not well established.

METHODS

Incident cases of colorectal cancer were identified among participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, a prospective cohort study of 41,528 Australians recruited from 1990 to 1994. Information on tumour site and stage, treatments given, recurrences, and deaths were obtained from systematic review of the medical records. Baseline assessments of physical activity and body size were made, and cases with available plasma had pre-diagnosis insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) levels measured. We assessed associations between these hormones and colorectal cancer specific deaths with respect to physical activity.

RESULTS

A total of 526 cases of colorectal cancer were identified, of which 443 had IGF-1/IGFBP-3 levels measured. Median follow up among survivors was 5.6 years. For the physically active, increasing IGFBP-3 by 26.2 nmol/l was associated with a 48% reduction in colorectal cancer specific deaths (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.52 (0.33-0.83); p = 0.006). No association was seen for IGF-1 (adjusted HR 0.90 (0.55-1.45); p = 0.65). For the physically inactive, neither IGF-1 nor IGFBP-3 was associated with disease specific survival.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the hypothesis that the beneficial effects of physical activity in reducing colorectal cancer mortality may occur through interactions with the insulin-like growth factor axis and in particular IGFBP-3.

A comparison of estradiol levels between women with a hysterectomy and ovarian conservation and women with an intact uterus

OBJECTIVES

To compare the distribution of estradiol levels between women with a hysterectomy and ovarian conservation and women with an intact uterus.

METHODS

A large cross-sectional study of women aged between 40 and 69 years, residing in Melbourne, Australia. Estradiol levels were available for 152 women with a hysterectomy and ovarian conservation and 1423 women with an intact uterus. All of the women were 'never-users' of hormone replacement therapy.

RESULTS

For women under 55 years of age, we observed that those with a hysterectomy and ovarian conservation had slightly higher estradiol levels compared with those with an intact uterus after adjustment for age, body mass index, smoking status and alcohol intake (ratio of geometric means of estradiol levels = 1.24; 95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.53). For women who were 55 years or greater, the distribution of estradiol levels varied little by hysterectomy status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data do not suggest that women with hysterectomy and ovarian conservation have markedly different estradiol levels compared to women with an intact uterus.

Effect of physical activity and body size on survival after diagnosis with colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Physical inactivity and obesity increase the risk of colorectal cancer but little is known about whether they influence prognosis after diagnosis.

METHODS

Incident cases of colorectal cancer were identified among participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, a prospective cohort study of 41 528 Australians recruited from 1990 to 1994. Participants diagnosed with their first colorectal cancer between recruitment and 1 August 2002 were eligible. At the time of study entry, body measurements were taken and participants were interviewed about their physical activity. Information on tumour site and stage, treatments given, recurrences, and deaths were obtained from systematic review of the medical records.

RESULTS

A total of 526 cases of colorectal cancer were identified. Median follow up among survivors was 5.5 years, and 208 deaths had occurred, including 181 from colorectal cancer. After adjusting for age, sex, and tumour stage, exercisers had an improved disease specific survival (hazard ratio 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-1.00)). The benefit of exercise was largely confined to stage II-III tumours (hazard ratio 0.49 (95% CI 0.30-0.79)). Increasing per cent body fat resulted in an increase in disease specific deaths (hazard ratio 1.33 per 10 kg (95% CI 1.04-1.71)). Similarly, increasing waist circumference reduced disease specific survival (hazard ratio 1.20 per 10 cm (95% CI 1.05-1.37)).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased central adiposity and a lack of regular physical activity prior to the diagnosis of colorectal cancer is associated with poorer overall and disease specific survival.

Creating SunSmart schools

Kidskin was a sun-protection intervention study involving 1776 children attending 33 primary schools in Perth, Western Australia. There were three study groups: a control group, a moderate intervention group and a high intervention group. In addition to receiving a specially designed curricular intervention (1995-1998), the moderate and high intervention groups received an environmental intervention aimed at creating SunSmart schools (1996-1998). The environmental intervention focused on encouraging implementation of 'No hat, no play' policies and reducing sun exposure at lunchtime. In 1995 and 1998, observational methods were used to measure children's lunchtime sun exposure (i.e. polysulfone film badges) and hat wearing (i.e. video-taping of children). The proportion of children wearing broad-brimmed hats or legionnaire caps increased in seven of the eight high intervention schools between 1995 and 1998. In three schools, however, the impact was very positive with almost all children wearing these hats in 1998. There was no improvement in wearing these types of hats in either the moderate intervention group or the control group. In terms of sun exposure, there were only small non-significant differences among the three groups in terms of lunchtime sun exposure. The Kidskin program had a positive effect on hat wearing in the playground, but did not change children's use of shade at lunchtime. In this study, disseminating policy guidelines to schools using a mail-only strategy was ineffective, even when combined with an awards program. More information on 'champions' who bring about change in schools is required.

Androgenetic alopecia in men aged 40-69 years: prevalence and risk factors

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of androgenetic alopecia (AGA) is not fully understood. Although a strong genetic basis has long been identified, little is known of its non-genetic causes.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the prevalence of and to determine risk factors for AGA in men aged 40-69 years in Australia.

METHODS

Men (n = 1390) were recruited at random from the electoral rolls to serve as controls in a population-based case-control study of prostate cancer. All were interviewed in person and direct observations of AGA were made. Men were grouped into the following categories; no AGA, frontal AGA, vertex AGA and full AGA (frontal and vertex AGA). Epidemiological data collected from these men were used for an analysis of risk factors for each AGA category using unconditional logistic regression with AGA category as the response variable adjusting for age, education and country of birth.

RESULTS

The prevalence of vertex and full AGA increased with age from 31% (age 40-55 years) to 53% (age 65-69 years). Conversely, the proportion of men with only frontal AGA was very similar across all age groups (31-33%). No associations were found between pubertal growth spurt or acne, reports of adult body size at time of interview, urinary symptom score, marital status, or current smoking status or duration of smoking and the risk of any form of AGA. The consumption of alcohol was associated with a significant increase in risk of frontal and vertex AGA but not full AGA. Men with vertex AGA had fewer female sexual partners but average ejaculatory frequency did not differ between men in different AGA categories. Reported weight and lean body mass at reaching maturity at about 21 years of age were negatively associated with vertex balding (P for trend < 0.05) but not with frontal AGA or full AGA.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence for environmental influences on AGA remains very slight. Our study failed to confirm previously reported or hypothesized associations with smoking and benign prostatic hypertrophy. The associations that we found with alcohol consumption and with lean body mass at age 21 years would be worthy of further research if they were able to be replicated in other studies.

Sexual factors and prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether prostate cancer might be related to hormone levels and, by inference, to differences in sexual activity.

PATIENTS, SUBJECTS AND METHODS

In a case-control study of men with prostate cancer aged < 70 years at diagnosis and age-matched control subjects, information was collected on two aspects of sexual activity; the number of sexual partners and the frequency of total ejaculations during the third to fifth decades of life.

RESULTS

There was no association of prostate cancer with the number of sexual partners or with the maximum number of ejaculations in 24 h. There was a negative trend (P < 0.01) for the association between risk and number of ejaculations in the third decade, independent of those in the fourth or fifth. Men who averaged five or more ejaculations weekly in their 20s had an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.66 (0.49-0.87) compared with those who ejaculated less often.

CONCLUSIONS

The null association with the number of sexual partners argues against infection as a cause of prostate cancer in this population. Ejaculatory frequency, especially in early adult life, is negatively associated with the risk of prostate cancer, and thus the molecular biological consequences of suppressed or diminished ejaculation are worthy of further research.

Risk of prostate cancer associated with a family history in an era of rapid increase in prostate cancer diagnosis (Australia)

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a case-control study of prostate cancer and familial risk of the disease in Australia between 1994 and 1998, a period during which the incidence of prostate cancer increased dramatically with widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing.

METHODS

1475 cases and 1405 controls were asked about prostate cancer in their first-degree relatives. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Cases were more likely to report a family history of prostate cancer than controls (OR 3.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-3.9) and cases reporting an affected relative were younger (58.8 versus 60.9 years, p < 0.0001). The OR for an affected first-degree relative increased with increasing number of affected relatives and decreased with increasing age of the case. The OR for more than one affected first-degree relative was 6.9 (95% CI 2.7-18). The OR for an affected brother was 3.9 (95% CI 2.5-6.1) and for an affected father was 2.9 (95% CI 2.1-3.9) but these were not significantly different (p = 0.2). When analyses were repeated including only diagnoses made in relatives prior to 1992, the risks were generally similar except that the OR for an affected brother decreased to 3.1 (95% CI 1.2-3.9). When only relatives' diagnoses made after 1991 were included results were again similar to those for all relatives, although the effect for brothers was greater and the attenuation with age at diagnosis dissipated.

CONCLUSIONS

The recent introduction of PSA testing that has resulted in a greater prevalence of apparent prostate cancer, does not appear to have substantially altered familial risks of disease, although effects associated with brothers may be inflated.

Prevalence of urinary symptoms in urban Australian men aged 40-69

BACKGROUND

This study was devised to determine the prevalence of urinary symptoms among men living in the Australian cities of Melbourne, Sydney or Perth, and to identify factors associated with the presence of moderate-to-severe urinary symptoms.

METHODS

The study comprised a population-based sample of 1,216 men, aged 40-69 years, whose names were obtained through electoral rolls and who participated as controls in a case-control study of risk factors for prostate cancer. As part of a structured face-to-face interview, the men completed the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS). Men with moderate (IPSS = 8-19) or severe (IPSS > or = 20) urinary symptoms were compared with those with mild or no symptoms (IPSS < 8) using unconditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

The age-specific prevalence of moderate-to-severe urinary symptoms (IPSS > or = 8) in men aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 years was 16%, 23% and 28%, respectively. Compared with men with no or mild urinary symptoms (IPSS < 8), men with moderate-to-severe symptoms were more likely to report not currently living as married [odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.0] and being circumcised (OR = 1.5; 95% Cl 1.2-2.0). The increased likelihood associated with drinking an average of > 60 g day(-1) of alcohol in the 2 years before interview was of marginal statistical significance (OR = 1.6; 1.0-2.6). There were no significant differences between men with IPSS > or = 8 and those with IPSS < 8 with respect to body mass index, education level, having had a vasectomy, or cigarette smoking.

CONCLUSION

Among Australian men, being circumcised, or not currently living as married, were associated with increased prevalence of urinary symptoms.

Reduced sun exposure and tanning in children after 2 years of a school-based intervention (Australia)

OBJECTIVE

This paper presents the results of the evaluation of measured suntan and parent-reported sun exposure in participating children after 2 years of the Kidskin study, a 5-year school-based sun protection intervention undertaken in Perth, Western Australia (1995-1999).

METHODS

The study involves three groups: a control, a "moderate", and a "high" intervention group. Participants were 5 or 6 years of age at the beginning of the study. Control schools received the standard Health Education curriculum, while intervention schools received a multicomponent intervention including a specially designed curriculum. Children in the high intervention group also received program materials over the summer vacation and were offered sun-protective swimwear at low cost. At the end of the second summer, suntan was measured and parents completed a questionnaire about their child's sun-related behavior.

RESULTS

Children in the intervention groups--especially the high group--were less tanned at the end of the summer; this effect was greater for the back than for the forearms. These children were also reported to have received less sun exposure and made greater use of sun protection measures.

CONCLUSION

Intensive school-based interventions can reduce tanning and reported sun exposure in children.

Smoking and prostate cancer: findings from an Australian case-control study

BACKGROUND

To examine the risk of smoking on histopathologically-confirmed moderate- and high-grade prostate cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A population-based case-control study was conducted in Melbourne, Sydney and Perth between 1994 and 1998 in men aged below 70 years. Cases were recruited from cancer registries and controls were selected from electoral registers. 1498 cases and 1434 controls were interviewed and a detailed smoking history obtained. Data were analyzed by unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for age, study center, year of recruitment, family history and country of birth.

RESULTS

The odds ratios (OR) were 1.02 (0.85-1.22) for former smoking and 0.82 (0.65-1.05) for current smoking. The respective ORs were 0.95 (0.78-1.15) and 0.76 (0.59-0.99) for moderate grade tumors, and 1.28 (0.96-1.70) and 1.00 (0.67-1.47) for high-grade tumors (P = 0.2 for test that ORs of the two grades were identical). There was no evidence of a dose-response effect for duration of smoking, amount smoked daily, pack-years of smoking and years since quitting and most ORs for these variables were close to unity.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking was not associated with the incidence of prostate cancer. The widths and upper limits of the confidence intervals for the effects of current and former smoking were consistent with weak effects at most.

Segregation analyses of 1,476 population-based Australian families affected by prostate cancer

Segregation analyses aim to detect genetic factors that have a major effect on an individual's risk of disease and to describe them in terms of mode of inheritance, age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance), and allele frequency. We conducted single- and two-locus segregation analyses of data from 1,476 men with prostate cancer diagnosed at age <70 years and ascertained through population registries in Melbourne, Sydney, and Perth, Australia, and from their brothers, fathers, and both maternal and paternal lineal uncles. Estimation and model selection were based on asymptotic likelihood theory and were performed through use of the software MENDEL. All two-locus models gave better fits than did single-locus models, even if lineal uncles were excluded or if we censored data (age and disease status) for relatives at 1992, when prostate-specific-antigen testing started to have a major impact on the incidence of prostate cancer in Australia. Among the genetic models that we considered, the best-fitting ones included a dominantly inherited increased risk that was greater, in multiplicative terms, at younger ages, as well as a recessively inherited or X-linked increased risk that was greater, in multiplicative terms, at older ages. The recessive and X-linked effects were strongly confounded, and it was not possible to fit them together. Penetrance to age 80 years was approximately 70% (95% confidence interval [CI] 57%-85%) for the dominant effect and virtually 100% for the recessive and X-linked effects. Approximately 1/30 (95% CI 1/80-1/12) men would carry the dominant risk, and 1/140 (95% CI 1/220-1/90) would carry the recessive risk or 1/200 (95% CI 1/380-1/100) would carry the X-linked risk. Within discussed limitations, these analyses confirm the genetic heterogeneity, of prostate cancer susceptibility, that is becoming evident from linkage analyses, and they may aid future efforts in gene discovery.

A psychometric experiment in causal inference to estimate evidential weights used by epidemiologists

A psychometric experiment in causal inference was performed on 159 Australian and New Zealand epidemiologists. Subjects each decided whether to attribute causality to 12 summaries of evidence concerning a disease and a chemical exposure. The 1,748 unique summaries embodied predetermined distributions of 19 characteristics generated by computerized evidence simulation. Effects of characteristics of evidence on causal attribution were estimated from logistic regression, and interactions were identified from a regression tree analysis. Factors with the strongest influence on the odds of causal attribution were statistical significance (odds ratio = 4.5 if 0.001 < or = P < 0.05 and 7.2 if P < 0.001, vs P > or = 0.05); refutation of alternative explanations (odds ratio = 8.1 for no known confounder vs none adjusted); strength of association (odds ratio = 2.0 if 1.5 < relative risk < or = 2.0 and 3.6 if relative risk > 2.0, vs relative risk < or = 1.5); and adjunct information concerning biological, factual, and theoretical coherence. The refutation of confounding reduced the cutpoint in the regression tree for decision-making based on strength of association. The effect of the number of supportive studies reached saturation after it exceeded 12 studies. There was evidence of flawed logic in the responses concerning specificity of effects of exposure and a tendency to discount evidence if the P-value was a "near miss" (0.050 < P < 0.065). Evidential weights based on regression coefficients for causal criteria can be applied to actual scientific evidence.

Improved sun protection behaviour in children after two years of the Kidskin intervention

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate a school-based intervention in terms of reducing children's sun exposure and improving their use of sun protection measures.

METHODS

'Kidskin' is a five-year, school-based intervention study in Perth, Western Australia, of a cohort of children who were five or six years old in 1995. The study involves three groups: control, 'moderate' and 'high' intervention. Children in the control schools received the standard health curriculum; those in the intervention schools received a multicomponent intervention, including a specially designed curriculum. Children in the high intervention group also received program materials over the summer holidays and were offered sun-protective swimwear at a low cost. After two years, parents completed a questionnaire about their child's sun-related behavior.

RESULTS

Children in the intervention groups--especially the 'high' group--were reported to have had less sun exposure. This involved covering the back more often, spending more time in the shade when outdoors and wearing a style of swimsuit that covered the trunk. There was also evidence that children in the intervention groups spent less time outdoors in the middle of the day. There was little difference between groups in the wearing of hats or sunscreen.

CONCLUSIONS

Our school-based intervention improved children's sun protection, but had little effect on specific behaviours that have already been vigorously promoted.

IMPLICATIONS

School-based prevention campaigns would benefit from focusing on sun protection using clothing and shade, and reducing sun exposure in the middle of the day. There may be little potential to improve hat and sunscreen use.

The age-range of risk of developing multiple sclerosis: evidence from a migrant population in Australia

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis in the Australian-born population in five different regions of Australia has a strong correlation with latitude, the disease becoming increasingly prevalent with increasing south latitude. In this study, the prevalence in the migrant population from the UK and Ireland (UKI) in the different regions also showed a significant correlation with latitude, but this relationship was strongly influenced by the high prevalence in Hobart. Except for Hobart, the prevalence in migrants was considerably less than that in their countries of origin. The prevalence of multiple sclerosis among those migrating before the age of 15 years from the high-risk UKI to lower-risk Australia was not significantly different to that among those migrating at or after that age, and this finding was confirmed in a case-control study which demonstrated little association between age at migration and risk of developing multiple sclerosis. These findings suggest that the risk from environmental factors in multiple sclerosis may operate over a period of many years and not only in childhood and early adult life.

Multiple sclerosis in Australia: prognostic factors

In order to determine the influence of age of onset, sex, onset symptoms, clinical course and interval from onset to first relapse on the subsequent outcome of multiple sclerosis (MS), data from 2934 cases of MS documented in a large population based study undertaken in Australia have been analysed. Disability on prevalence day (30 June 1981) was defined on the Kurtzke disability scale as mild (DSS 0-3), moderate (DSS 4-6) and severe (DSS 7-9). Prognostic factors associated with mild vs moderate/severe, and moderate vs severe disability on prevalence day were identified by logistic regression analysis. A worse prognosis was significantly associated with older age of onset, progressive disease course, onset symptoms that were multiple, pyramidal or cerebellar, and a short interval between onset and first relapse.