Mortality among patients with pulmonary non-tuberculous mycobacteria disease

SETTING

Tertiary referral center, National Institutes of Health (NIH), USA.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the mortality rate and its correlates among persons with pulmonary non-tuberculous mycobacteria (PNTM) disease.

DESIGN

A retrospective review of 106 patients who were treated at the NIH Clinical Center and met American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America criteria for PNTM. Eligible patients were aged ⩾18 years and did not have cystic fibrosis or human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection.

RESULTS

Of 106 patients followed for a median of 4.9 years, 27 (25%) died during follow-up, for a mortality rate of 4.2 per 100 person-years. The population was predominantly female (88%) and White (88%), with infrequent comorbidities. Fibrocavitary disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-8.3) and pulmonary hypertension (aHR 2.1, 95%CI 0.9-5.1) were associated with a significantly elevated risk of mortality in survival analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

PNTM remains a serious public health concern, with a consistently elevated mortality rate across multiple populations. Significant risk factors for death include fibrocavitary disease and pulmonary hypertension. Further research is needed to more specifically identify clinical and microbiologic factors that jointly influence disease outcome.

Parental attitudes toward multiple poliovirus injections following a provider recommendation

OBJECTIVES

Changes to the polio vaccination schedule, first to a sequential inactivated poliovirus/oral poliovirus (IPV/OPV) schedule in 1996 and most recently to an all-IPV schedule, require infants to receive additional injections. Some surveys show parental hesitation concerning extra injections, whereas others show that parents prefer multiple simultaneous injections over extra immunization visits. This study describes parental behavior and attitudes about the poliovirus vaccine recommendations and additional injections at the 2- and 4-month immunization visits.

METHODS

Beginning July 1, 1996, providers in eight public health clinics in Cobb and Douglas Counties, Georgia, informed parents of polio vaccination options and recommended the IPV/OPV sequential schedule. A cross-sectional clinic exit survey was conducted from July 15, 1996, to January 31, 1997, with parents whose infants (younger than 6 months) were eligible for a first poliovirus vaccination.

RESULTS

Of approximately 405 eligible infants, parents of 293 infants were approached for an interview, and 227 agreed to participate. Of those 227 participants, 210 (92%) parents chose IPV for their infant and 17 (8%) chose OPV. Of greatest concern to most parents was vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP) (155, or 68.3%); the next greatest concern was an extra injection (22, or 9.7%). These parental concerns were unrelated to the number of injections the infant actually received.

CONCLUSIONS

After receiving information on polio vaccination options and a provider recommendation, parents overwhelmingly chose IPV over OPV. Concern about VAPP was more common than objection to an extra injection. The additional injection that results from using IPV for an infant's first poliovirus vaccination appears to be acceptable to most parents.

Pertussis outbreak in an elementary school with high vaccination coverage

BACKGROUND

An outbreak of pertussis in a US elementary school with high vaccination coverage was investigated to evaluate vaccine effectiveness and to identify potential contributing factors.

METHODS

Survey and cohort study of all 215 students of an elementary school (including 36 case patients) and 16 secondary cases among contacts.

RESULTS

Fifty-two pertussis cases were identified (attack rate among students, 17%). Receipt of <3 doses of pertussis-containing-vaccine compared with receipt of complete vaccination series was a significant risk factor for pertussis [relative risk, 5.1; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3 to 8.6]. The effectiveness of the complete vaccination series was 80% (95% CI 66 to 88). No evidence of waning immunity among students was found. The following contributing factors for the outbreak were identified: multiple introductions of pertussis from the community; delays in identification and treatment of early cases; and high contact rates among students. Antimicrobial treatment initiated >14 days after cough onset was associated with increased risk of further transmission of pertussis (relative risk, 10.1; 95% CI 1.5 to 70.3) compared with treatment within 14 days of onset.

CONCLUSIONS

This investigation demonstrated the potential for pertussis outbreaks to occur in well-vaccinated elementary school populations. Aggressive efforts to identify cases and contacts and timely antimicrobial treatment can limit spread of pertussis in similar settings. High vaccination coverage should be maintained, because vaccination significantly reduces the risk of the disease throughout the elementary school years, and to ensure timely diagnosis and treatment health care providers should maintain a high index of suspicion for pertussis among elementary school age children.

Incidence of HIV among injection drug users entering drug treatment programs in four US cities

We estimated seroincidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and prevalence of risk behaviors among injection drug users (IDUs) who accepted voluntary HIV testing on entry to drug treatment. Record-based incidence studies were conducted in 12 drug treatment programs in New York City (n = 890); Newark, New Jersey (n = 521); Seattle, Washington (n = 1,256); and Los Angeles, California (n = 733). Records of confidential HIV tests were abstracted for information on demographics, drug use, and HIV test results. More detailed data on risk behaviors were obtained by a standardized questionnaire. Although overall incidence rates were relatively low in this population (<1/100 person-years), there was a high prevalence of risk behaviors. Needle sharing was reported by more than one-third of the participants in each of the cities. HIV seroincidence rates were up to three-fold higher among younger ID Us. We found that HIV continued to be transmitted among ID Us who had received both drug treatment and HIV counseling and testing. HIV/AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) prevention education should continue to be an important component of drug treatment.

Parental attitudes toward multiple poliovirus injections following a provider recommendation

OBJECTIVES

Changes to the polio vaccination schedule, first to a sequential inactivated poliovirus/oral poliovirus (IPV/OPV) schedule in 1996 and most recently to an all-IPV schedule, require infants to receive additional injections. Some surveys show parental hesitation concerning extra injections, whereas others show that parents prefer multiple simultaneous injections over extra immunization visits. This study describes parental behavior and attitudes about the poliovirus vaccine recommendations and additional injections at the 2- and 4-month immunization visits.

METHODS

Beginning July 1, 1996, providers in eight public health clinics in Cobb and Douglas Counties, Georgia, informed parents of polio vaccination options and recommended the IPV/OPV sequential schedule. A cross-sectional clinic exit survey was conducted from July 15, 1996, to January 31, 1997, with parents whose infants (younger than 6 months) were eligible for a first poliovirus vaccination.

RESULTS

Of approximately 405 eligible infants, parents of 293 infants were approached for an interview, and 227 agreed to participate. Of those 227 participants, 210 (92%) parents chose IPV for their infant and 17 (8%) chose OPV. Of greatest concern to most parents was vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP) (155, or 68.3%); the next greatest concern was an extra injection (22, or 9.7%). These parental concerns were unrelated to the number of injections the infant actually received.

CONCLUSIONS

After receiving information on polio vaccination options and a provider recommendation, parents overwhelmingly chose IPV over OPV. Concern about VAPP was more common than objection to an extra injection. The additional injection that results from using IPV for an infant's first poliovirus vaccination appears to be acceptable to most parents.

Poliomyelitis prevention in the United States. Updated recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)

These recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for poliomyelitis prevention replace those issued in 1997. As of January 1, 2000, ACIP recommends exclusive use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) for routine childhood polio vaccination in the United States. All children should receive four doses of IPV at ages 2, 4, and 6-18 months and 4-6 years. Oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) should be used only in certain circumstances, which are detailed in these recommendations. Since 1979, the only indigenous cases of polio reported in the United States have been associated with the use of the live OPV. Until recently, the benefits of OPV use (i.e., intestinal immunity, secondary spread) outweighed the risk for vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) (i.e., one case among 2.4 million vaccine doses distributed). In 1997, to decrease the risk for VAPP but maintain the benefits of OPV, ACIP recommended replacing the all-OPV schedule with a sequential schedule of IPV followed by OPV. Since 1997, the global polio eradication initiative has progressed rapidly, and the likelihood of poliovirus importation into the United States has decreased substantially. In addition, the sequential schedule has been well accepted. No declines in childhood immunization coverage were observed, despite the need for additional injections. On the basis of these data, ACIP recommended on June 17, 1999, an all-IPV schedule for routine childhood polio vaccination in the United States to eliminate the risk for VAPP. ACIP reaffirms its support for the global polio eradication initiative and the use of OPV as the only vaccine recommended to eradicate polio from the remaining countries where polio is endemic.

Poliovirus vaccines. Progress toward global poliomyelitis eradication and changing routine immunization recommendations in the United States

Poliomyelitis prevention in the United States has relied virtually exclusively on OPV during the past 30 years. Starting in 1997, a major change in the poliomyelitis vaccination policy occurred, facilitated by substantial progress toward worldwide poliomyelitis eradication. A sequential schedule of IPV followed by OPV became the preferred means to prevent poliomyelitis, although an all-OPV and an all-IPV schedule were considered acceptable alternatives. In 1999, two doses of IPV were recommended to start the primary series, followed by two doses of either poliovirus vaccine. As of January 2000, an all-IPV schedule is currently being implemented in the United States for routine childhood vaccination. Several unusual features are associated with the major public health policy change from an all-OPV to a sequential schedule, including (1) the process of involving a neutral party (i.e., the IOM); (2) the perceived concerns expressed before the change in policy with regard to provider and parent compliance, which could affect the hard-earned gains in raising immunization coverage rates; (3) the ethical issues surrounding the change (e.g., societal versus individual protection) and the influence that a single case of VAPP may have on national policy; (4) the relative lack of importance of cost-effectiveness data; and (5) the weight of progress in the global polio eradication initiative spurring the change in the United States and, increasingly, in other industrialized countries. The IOM assisted in the evaluation of the national poliomyelitis vaccination policy in 1977 and again in 1988. The 1988 review recommended that a sequential IPV-OPV schedule be considered at such time that a combination vaccine becomes available. Also, the IOM raised several important questions. Extensive research to address the questions raised by the IOM had been conducted so that, in 1996, more data were available for the decision-making process. The primary reasons for the change in vaccination policy were (1) the continued occurrence of VAPP in the absence of indigenously acquired wildtype poliovirus-associated paralytic disease, (2) the reduced risk for importation and spread of wild-type poliovirus caused by the progress of the global polio eradication initiative, (3) evidence from vaccine trials that combined IPV-OPV schedules are safe and immunogenic, and (4) maintenance of high levels of population immunity to poliovirus. The global effect of a national change in poliomyelitis vaccination policy was also considered in this policy-making process. Some members of the public health and medical communities raised objections that an increased reliance on IPV in the United States could lead other countries, especially developing countries, to inappropriately abandon OPV and increase reliance on IPV for routine vaccination. Experience from the global smallpox eradication campaign indicated that this scenario was unlikely. The United States ceased vaccinating against smallpox in 1971, 6 years before smallpox was eliminated from the world, without jeopardizing the global smallpox campaign. Subsequently, the effect on the global eradication initiative has been negligible. This article illustrates the potential discrepancy between expressed theoretic concerns about the number of injections and the actual practice once vaccination policy recommendations become the standard of care and that appropriate training and education can overcome these initial concerns. The authors found that compliance with the recommended use of IPV for the first and second doses as part of the sequential schedule was high, independent of socioeconomic status and ethnicity. The need for additional injections did not present a barrier to completion of the recommended childhood immunization schedule. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

Impact of the sequential poliovirus immunization schedule: a demonstration project

OBJECTIVE

Researchers for this project evaluated compliance with the sequential poliovirus immunization schedule that uses inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) for the first 2 doses of the polio immunization series, and assessed immunization coverage rates before and after implementation of this schedule at 6 public health clinics serving 1 county in Georgia.

DESIGN

Immunization histories for 3 birth cohorts of infants were compared: (1) the baseline cohort, born January 1 through June 30, 1995; (2) the evaluation cohort, born January 1 through June 30, 1997, after implementation of the schedule change; and (3) the dose-3 cohort, born August 1 through November 30, 1996 (i.e., old enough to be eligible for a third dose of poliovirus vaccine following implementation of the sequential schedule).

RESULTS

Following implementation of the new poliovirus immunization recommendations, 94% (534 of 567) of infants who received their first dose of poliovirus vaccine by age 3 months received IPV. Among these infants, 99.6% (532 of 534) were also up to date (UTD) for first doses of diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis vaccine (DTP1/DTaP1), 99.6% (532 of 534) were UTD for first doses of hemophilus influenza type b (Hib 1), and 98.6% (527 of 534) had received at least one dose of Hepatitis B. Among infants visiting the clinics for their first or second dose of poliovirus vaccine, DTaP/DTP, and/or Hib, 76% received 3 or 4 simultaneous injections. In the dose-3 cohort, 78% (145 of 185) of infants who received a third dose of poliovirus vaccine had received 2 doses of IPV and 1 dose of oral poliovirus vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Compliance with the recommended use of IPV for the first 2 poliovirus immunization doses as part of the sequential schedule was very high in this low-income and ethnically diverse population. Furthermore, the need for additional injections did not impede the delivery of recommended childhood immunizations.

Prolonged replication of a type 1 vaccine-derived poliovirus in an immunodeficient patient

VP1 sequences were determined for poliovirus type 1 isolates obtained over a 189-day period from a poliomyelitis patient with common variable immunodeficiency syndrome (a defect in antibody formation). The isolate from the first sample, taken 11 days after onset of paralysis, contained two poliovirus populations, differing from the Sabin 1 vaccine strain by approximately 10%, differing from diverse type 1 wild polioviruses by 19 to 24%, and differing from each other by 5.5% of nucleotides. Specimens taken after day 11 appeared to contain only one major poliovirus population. Evolution of VP1 sequences at synonymous third-codon positions occurred at an overall rate of approximately 3.4% per year over the 189-day period. Assuming this rate to be constant throughout the period of infection, the infection was calculated to have started approximately 9.3 years earlier. This estimate is about the time (6. 9 years earlier) the patient received his last oral poliovirus vaccine dose, approximately 2 years before the diagnosis of immunodeficiency. These findings may have important implications for the strategy to eliminate poliovirus immunization after global polio eradication.

Tetanus surveillance--United States, 1995-1997

PROBLEM/CONDITIONS: Despite widespread availability of a safe and effective vaccine against tetanus, 124 cases of the disease were reported during 1995-1997. Only 13% of patients reported having received a primary series of tetanus toxoid (TT) before disease onset. Of patients with known illness outcome, the case-fatality ratio was 11%.

REPORTING PERIOD COVERED

1995-1997.

DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM

Physician-diagnosed cases of tetanus are reported by state and local health departments to CDC's National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. In addition, since 1965, supplemental clinical and epidemiologic information for cases has been provided to CDC's National Immunization Program.

RESULTS

From 1995 through 1997, a total of 124 cases of tetanus were reported from 33 states and the District of Columbia, accounting for an average annual incidence of 0.15 cases per 1,000,000 population. Sixty percent of patients were aged 20-59 years; 35% were aged > or =60 years; and 5% were aged <20 years, including one case of neonatal tetanus. For adults aged > or =60 years, the increased risk for tetanus was nearly sevenfold that for persons aged 5-19 years and twofold that for persons aged 20-59 years. The case-fatality ratio varied from 2.3% for persons aged 20-39 years to 16% for persons aged 40-59 years and to 18% for persons aged > or =60 years. Only 13% of patients reported having received a primary series of TT before disease onset. Previous vaccination status was directly related to severity of disease, with the case-fatality ratio ranging from 6% for patients who had received one to two doses to 15% for patients who were unvaccinated. No deaths occurred among the 16 patients who previously had received three or more doses. Tetanus occurred following an acute injury in 77% of patients, but only 41% sought medical care for their injury. All patients who sought care were eligible for TT as part of wound prophylaxis, but only 39% received it. Tetanus in injecting-drug users (IDUs) with no known acute injury comprised 11% of all cases, compared with 3.6% during 1991-1994. None of the IDU-associated tetanus cases occurred among persons who were known to have been vaccinated. Sixty-nine percent of IDU-associated tetanus cases were reported from California, and 77% of these cases occurred in heroin users.

INTERPRETATION

Tetanus remains a severe disease that primarily affects unvaccinated or inadequately vaccinated persons. Adults aged > or =60 years continue to be at highest risk for tetanus and for severe disease. However, the overall incidence of tetanus has decreased slightly since the late 1980s and early 1990s, from 0.20 to 0.15, a result primarily of a decreased incidence among persons aged > or =60 and <20 years.

ACTIONS TAKEN

Tetanus is preventable through both routine vaccination and appropriate wound management. In addition to decennial booster doses of diphtheria and tetanus toxoids during adult life, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommends vaccination visits for adolescents at age 11-12 years and for adults at age 50 years to enable health-care providers to review vaccination histories and administer any needed vaccine. Every contact with the health-care system, particularly among older adults and IDUs, should be used to review and update vaccination status as needed.

Outbreak of paralytic poliomyelitis in Albania, 1996: high attack rate among adults and apparent interruption of transmission following nationwide mass vaccination

After >10 years without detection of any cases of wild virus-associated poliomyelitis, a large outbreak of poliomyelitis occurred in Albania in 1996. A total of 138 paralytic cases occurred, of which 16 (12%) were fatal. The outbreak was due to wild poliovirus type 1, isolated from 69 cases. An attack rate of 10 per 100,000 population was observed among adults aged 19-25 years who were born during a time of declining wild poliovirus circulation and had been vaccinated with two doses of monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) that may have been exposed to ambient temperatures for prolonged periods. Control of the epidemic was achieved by two rounds of mass vaccination with trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine targeted to persons aged 0-50 years. This outbreak underscores the ongoing threat of importation of wild poliovirus into European countries, the importance of delivering potent vaccine through an adequate cold chain, and the effectiveness of national OPV mass vaccination campaigns for outbreak control.

Poliomyelitis prevention in the United States: new recommendations for routine childhood vaccination place greater reliance on inactivated poliovirus vaccine

Until worldwide eradication of poliomyelitis is achieved, vaccination with poliovirus vaccines is the only means for providing population and individual immunity to polioviruses. The ACIP, AAP, and AAFP support the global poliomyelitis eradication initiative, and have recommended a transition policy that will increase use of IPV and decrease use of OPV during the next 3 to 5 years.

Tetanus surveillance--United States, 1991-1994

PROBLEM/CONDITION

Despite the widespread availability of a safe and effective vaccine against tetanus, 201 cases of the disease were reported during 1991-1994. Of patients with known illness outcome, the case-fatality rate was 25%.

REPORTING PERIOD COVERED

1991-1994.

DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM

Physician-diagnosed cases of tetanus are reported to local and state health departments, the latter of which reports these cases on a weekly basis to CDC's National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Since 1965, state health departments also have submitted supplemental clinical and epidemiologic information to CDC's National Immunization Program.

RESULTS

During 1991-1994, 201 cases of tetanus were reported from 40 states, for an average annual incidence of 0.02 cases per 100,000 population. Of the 188 patients for whom age was known, 101 (54%) were aged > or = 60 years and 10 (5%) were aged < 20 years. No cases of neonatal tetanus were reported. Among adults, the risk for tetanus increased with age; the risk for persons aged > or = 80 years was more than 10 times greater than the risk for persons aged 20-29 years. All deaths occurred among persons aged > or = 30 years. The case-fatality rate (overall: 25%) increased with age, from 11% in persons aged 30-49 years to 54% in persons aged > or = 80 years. Only 12% of all patients were reported to have received a primary series of tetanus toxoid before onset of illness. For 77% of patients, tetanus occurred after an acute injury was sustained. Of patients who obtained medical care for their injury, only 43% received tetanus toxoid as part of wound prophylaxis.

INTERPRETATION

The epidemiology of reported tetanus in the United States during 1991-1994 was similar to that during the 1980s. Tetanus continued to be a severe disease primarily of older adults who were unvaccinated or inadequately vaccinated. Most tetanus cases occurred after an acute injury was sustained, emphasizing the need for appropriate wound management.

ACTIONS TAKEN

In addition to decennial booster doses of tetanus-diphtheria toxoid during adult life, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommends vaccination visits for adolescents at age 11-12 years and for adults at age 50 years to enable health-care providers to review vaccination histories and administer any needed vaccine. Full implementation of the ACIP recommendations should virtually eliminate the remaining tetanus burden in the United States.

Assessment of Guillain-Barré syndrome mortality and morbidity in the United States: implications for acute flaccid paralysis surveillance

To estimate age-specific incidences and assess the national morbidity and mortality burden for Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) in the United States, a national hospital discharge database compiled by the Commission on Professional and Hospital Activities (CPHA) and national death certificate data reported to the National Vital Statistics System were reviewed. During 1985-1991, 10,453 patients with GBS were discharged from CPHA-participating hospitals (estimated annual incidence, 3.0/100,000 population). The age-specific incidence of GBS increased with age from 1.5/100,000 in persons <15 years old to 8.6/100,000 in persons 70-79 years old. The total estimated number of GBS-related deaths from 1985 through 1990 was 3770 (95% confidence interval, 3506-4034), for an average of 628 GBS deaths per year. These rates suggest that the proposed national surveillance system for acute flaccid paralysis should capture at a minimum the 796 GBS cases in persons <15 years old. GBS remains a significant health burden among older adults in the United States, with a marked increase in risk after age 40.

Trends in human immunodeficiency virus seroprevalence among injection drug users entering drug treatment centers, United States, 1988-1993

National unlinked sentinel surveillance data were used to describe trends in prevalent human immunodeficiency virus infection among injection drug users entering drug treatment programs in the United States from 1988 through 1993. During this 6-year period, unlinked testing was performed on 70,882 specimens from injection drug users at 60 sentinel sites. The annual change in seroprevalence was estimated for each site by odds ratios obtained from logistic regression models fit within site-specific age and race/ethnicity subgroups. Overall trends for age and race/ethnicity subgroups across sites were described by summary odds ratios calculated using the inverse variance method. A decrease was observed among younger (age less than 30 years) whites both in areas with high (10% or higher) and low (less than 10%) prevalence, although this decrease was significant only in high-prevalence areas (odds ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.81-0.99). Seroprevalence also decreased among older whites in high-prevalence areas, although this decrease was not significant (odds ratio = 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.89-1.00). Seroprevalence remained stable among all other age and race/ethnicity subgroups. Stable seroprevalence among the dynamic population of injection drug users entering treatment suggests continued transmission among these individuals in both high- and low-prevalence areas of the United States.

Completeness of reporting for paralytic poliomyelitis, United States, 1980 through 1991. Implications for estimating the risk of vaccine-associated disease

BACKGROUND

Although the risk of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) has remained relatively constant during the past 30 years, estimates of VAPP depend largely on the completeness of reporting to the existing passive surveillance system. The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program constitutes an alternative system for reporting VAPP, and data available from this system permitted us to evaluate the completeness of the national poliomyelitis surveillance system.

METHODS

We compared cases of paralytic poliomyelitis reported to the national surveillance system (maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Ga) with cases recommended for compensation by the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, Rockville, Md, and we calculated the observed completeness of reporting to the national system for 1980 through 1991. A capture-recapture method was also used to estimate completeness of reporting, ie, to account for cases potentially missed by both systems. In addition, we reviewed the epidemiology and updated the risk of VAPP based on the most current information on cases of VAPP.

RESULTS

From 1980 through 1991, 105 cases of paralytic poliomyelitis were identified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program systems, 98 (93%) of which were VAPP (average, 8.2 cases per year). The observed completeness of reporting to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was 94%, and the estimated completeness of reporting (capture-recapture method) was 81%. The overall risk of VAPP was one case per 2.5 million doses of oral poliovirus vaccine distributed. In the sensitivity analysis, the risk estimates of VAPP remained relatively stable throughout a wide range of assumptions regarding underreporting and specificity of the case definition for paralytic poliomyelitis.

CONCLUSION

The risk of VAPP remains virtually unchanged from previous estimates despite the inclusion of previously unidentified VAPP cases. Despite the potential for both underreporting and misclassification of cases, our risk estimates were relatively insensitive to either of these biases. Since both of these biases were in opposite directions, and both probably occurred with low frequency, the risk estimates provided in this report appear valid and approximate the "true" risk of VAPP in the United States.

First reported outbreak of classical dengue fever at 1,700 meters above sea level in Guerrero State, Mexico, June 1988

An outbreak of classical dengue fever occurred from March to August 1988 in the city of Taxco, Guerrero State, Mexico. Taxco is at an elevation of 1,700 meters above sea level, and this study represents the highest altitude at which an outbreak of dengue has been documented. An investigation was conducted to obtain serologic confirmation of dengue infection, determine the extent of the outbreak, and identify risk factors for dengue illness. Toxorhynchites cell lines were used for viral isolation, and hemagglutination inhibition was used to measure anti-dengue antibody titers. The case definition used in the investigation was any person with fever, headache, myalgias, and arthralgias, or rash or retroocular pain. Dengue virus type 1 was isolated from five acute cases. Of 1,686 persons living in the affected area, 42% (715) met the case definition. Large (200-liter) water containers were significantly associated with infection (relative risk = 1.7, 95% confidence interval 1.5-1.9). The effect of altitude on epidemic transmission is most likely modulated by seasonal temperatures. The epidemiologic and serologic confirmation of a dengue outbreak at 1,700 meters above sea level represents the capability of Aedes aegypti to adapt to new environments, and the potential for epidemic spread in cities at comparable altitudes or higher.

Determinants and predictors of dengue infection in Mexico

A national serosurvey was conducted in Mexico from March to October 1986 to identify predictors of dengue transmission and target areas at high risk of severe annual epidemics. A total of 3,408 households in 70 localities with populations less than 50,000 were randomly sampled, and serology was obtained from one subject under age 25 years in each household. When comparing exposure and infection frequencies across the 70 communities, the authors found that median temperature during the rainy season was the strongest predictor of dengue infection, with an adjusted fourfold risk in the comparison of 30 degrees C with 17 degrees C. High temperatures increase vector efficiency by reducing the period of viral replication in mosquitoes. The proportion of houses in a community with larva on the premises was significantly associated with the community proportion infected (odds ratio (OR)adj = 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-2.5), as was the proportion of households with uncovered water containers present (ORadj = 1.9; 95% CI 1.4-2.7). Because these factors have effects beyond the individual household and subjects infected from them create a risk for other subjects, both analyses of effects and organization of control efforts must be at the community level. A predictive model was constructed using the community level risk factors to classify communities as being at high, medium, or low risk of experiencing an epidemic; 57% of these communities were correctly classified using this model.