A Scoping Assessment of Implemented Toxicokinetic Models of Per- and Polyfluoro-Alkyl Substances, with a Focus on One-Compartment Models

Toxicokinetic (TK) models have been used for decades to estimate concentrations of per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in serum. However, model complexity has varied across studies depending on the application and the state of the science. This scoping effort seeks to systematically map the current landscape of PFAS TK models by categorizing different trends and similarities across model type, PFAS, and use scenario. A literature review using Web of Science and SWIFT-Review was used to identify TK models used for PFAS. The assessment covered publications from 2005-2020. PFOA, the PFAS for which most models were designed, was included in 69 of the 92 papers, followed by PFOS with 60, PFHxS with 22, and PFNA with 15. Only 4 of the 92 papers did not include analysis of PFOA, PFOS, PFNA, or PFHxS. Within the corpus, 50 papers contained a one-compartment model, 17 two-compartment models were found, and 33 used physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBTK) models. The scoping assessment suggests that scientific interest has centered around two chemicals-PFOA and PFOS-and most analyses use one-compartment models in human exposure scenarios.

A Machine Learning Model to Estimate Toxicokinetic Half-Lives of Per- and Polyfluoro-Alkyl Substances (PFAS) in Multiple Species

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a diverse group of man-made chemicals that are commonly found in body tissues. The toxicokinetics of most PFAS are currently uncharacterized, but long half-lives (t_½) have been observed in some cases. Knowledge of chemical-specific t_½ is necessary for exposure reconstruction and extrapolation from toxicological studies. We used an ensemble machine learning method, random forest, to model the existing in vivo measured t_½ across four species (human, monkey, rat, mouse) and eleven PFAS. Mechanistically motivated descriptors were examined, including two types of surrogates for renal transporters: (1) physiological descriptors, including kidney geometry, for renal transporter expression and (2) structural similarity of defluorinated PFAS to endogenous chemicals for transporter affinity. We developed a classification model for t_½ (Bin 1: <12 h; Bin 2: <1 week; Bin 3: <2 months; Bin 4: >2 months). The model had an accuracy of 86.1% in contrast to 32.2% for a y-randomized null model. A total of 3890 compounds were within domain of the model, and t_½ was predicted using the bin medians: 4.9 h, 2.2 days, 33 days, and 3.3 years. For human t_½, 56% of PFAS were classified in Bin 4, 7% were classified in Bin 3, and 37% were classified in Bin 2. This model synthesizes the limited available data to allow tentative extrapolation and prioritization.

Correction to Designing QSARs for Parameters of High Throughput Toxicokinetic Models Using Open-Source Descriptors

The intrinsic metabolic clearance rate (Cl_int) and fraction of chemical unbound in plasma (f_up) serve as important parameters for high throughput toxicokinetic models, but experimental data are limited for many chemicals. Open-source quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for both parameters were developed to offer reliable in silico predictions for a diverse set of chemicals regulated under U.S. law, including pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and industrial chemicals. As a case study to demonstrate their utility, model predictions served as inputs to the TK component of a risk-based prioritization approach based on Bioactivity: Exposure Ratios (BER), in which a BER < 1 indicates exposures are predicted to exceed a biological activity threshold. When applied to a subset of the Tox21 screening library (6631 chemicals) we found that the proportion of chemicals with BER < 1 was similar using either in silico (1337/6631; 20.16%) or in vitro (151/850; 17.76%) parameters. Further, when considering only the chemicals in the Tox21 set with in vitro data, there was a high concordance of chemicals classified with either BER < 1 or >1 using either in silico or in vitro parameters (776/850, 91.30%). Thus, the presented QSARs may be suitable for prioritizing the risk posed by many chemicals for which measured in vitro TK data are lacking.

Combining epidemiological and ecological methods to quantify social effects on Escherichia coli transmission

Enteric microparasites like Escherichia coli use multiple transmission pathways to propagate within and between host populations. Characterizing the relative transmission risk attributable to host social relationships and direct physical contact between individuals is paramount for understanding how microparasites like E. coli spread within affected communities and estimating colonization rates. To measure these effects, we carried out commensal E. coli transmission experiments in two cattle (Bos taurus) herds, wherein all individuals were equipped with real-time location tracking devices. Following transmission experiments in this model system, we derived temporally dynamic social and contact networks from location data. Estimated social affiliations and dyadic contact frequencies during transmission experiments informed pairwise accelerated failure time models that we used to quantify effects of these sociobehavioural variables on weekly E. coli colonization risk in these populations. We found that sociobehavioural variables alone were ultimately poor predictors of E. coli colonization in feedlot cattle, but can have significant effects on colonization hazard rates (p ≤ 0.05). We show, however, that observed effects were not consistent between similar populations. This work demonstrates that transmission experiments can be combined with real-time location data collection and processing procedures to create an effective framework for quantifying sociobehavioural effects on microparasite transmission.

Accounting for space and uncertainty in real-time location system-derived contact networks

Point data obtained from real-time location systems (RTLSs) can be processed into animal contact networks, describing instances of interaction between tracked individuals. Proximity-based definitions of interanimal "contact," however, may be inadequate for describing epidemiologically and sociologically relevant interactions involving body parts or other physical spaces relatively far from tracking devices. This weakness can be overcome by using polygons, rather than points, to represent tracked individuals and defining "contact" as polygon intersections.We present novel procedures for deriving polygons from RTLS point data while maintaining distances and orientations associated with individuals' relocation events. We demonstrate the versatility of this methodology for network modeling using two contact network creation examples, wherein we use this procedure to create (a) interanimal physical contact networks and (b) a visual contact network. Additionally, in creating our networks, we establish another procedure to adjust definitions of "contact" to account for RTLS positional accuracy, ensuring all true contacts are likely captured and represented in our networks.Using the methods described herein and the associated R package we have developed, called contact, researchers can derive polygons from RTLS points. Furthermore, we show that these polygons are highly versatile for contact network creation and can be used to answer a wide variety of epidemiological, ethological, and sociological research questions.By introducing these methodologies and providing the means to easily apply them through the contact R package, we hope to vastly improve network-model realism and researchers' ability to draw inferences from RTLS data.

Ecological and Socioeconomic Factors Associated with Bartonella henselae Exposure in Dogs Tested for Vector-Borne Diseases in North Carolina

Bartonella henselae is a zoonotic vector-borne pathogen affecting both humans and dogs. Little is known about the epidemiology of B. henselae in dogs, including risk factors associated with exposure. The objectives of this study were to map the current distribution of B. henselae in dogs in North Carolina (NC) and to identify ecological and socioeconomic factors influencing B. henselae seroreactivity. Results from 4446 B. henselae serology samples from dogs in NC submitted by veterinarians for clinical diagnostic testing to the North Carolina State University College of Veterinary Medicine Vector Borne Disease Diagnostic Laboratory between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. These results were used to generate a map of B. henselae seroreactivity. To account for sparsely sampled areas, statistical smoothing using head banging and areal interpolation kriging was performed. Using previously described risk factors for exposure to canine tick-borne diseases, eight multivariable logistic regression models based on biologically plausible hypotheses were tested, and a final model was selected using an Akaike's Information Criterion weighted-average approach. Seroreactivity among dogs tested for vector-borne disease was variable across the state: higher along the southern/eastern coastal plains and eastern Piedmont, and lower in the western mountains. Of 25 explanatory factors considered, the model combining demographic, socioeconomic, climatic, and land use variables fits best. Based on this model, female intact sex and increasing percentage of the county with low-intensity development and evergreen forest were associated with higher seroreactivity. Conversely, moderate development, increasing median household income, and higher temperature range and relative humidity were associated with lower seroreactivity. This model could be improved, however, by including local and host-scale factors that may play a significant role in dogs' exposure.

A Model of Culex quinquefasciatus Abundance Constructed Using Routine Surveillance and Treatment Data in Tarrant County, Texas

Mosquito surveillance and pesticide treatment data can be combined in statistical models to provide insight into drivers of mosquito population dynamics. In cooperation with the county-based public health authority, multiple municipalities in Tarrant County, Texas, supplied surveillance and pesticide treatment data available from the 2014 mosquito season for analysis. With these data, general linear mixed modeling was used to model population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus, the primary vector for West Nile virus. Temporally lagged pesticide treatment information, weather data, and habitat variables were used as predictors of log + 1 transformed mosquito count data, and Akaike information criteria corrected for small sample sizes (AICc)-based model selection and multimodel averaging was used to produce a final model of mosquito abundance. The model revealed that mosquito counts were driven mainly by seasonally fluctuating temperature, precipitation, human population density, and treatment. In particular, interactions between temperature and treatment, and precipitation and human population density significantly contributed to the interpretation of the effects of the nonweather variables.

Transmission on empirical dynamic contact networks is influenced by data processing decisions

Dynamic contact data can be used to inform disease transmission models, providing insight into the dynamics of infectious diseases. Such data often requires extensive processing for use in models or analysis. Therefore, processing decisions can potentially influence the topology of the contact network and the simulated disease transmission dynamics on the network. In this study, we examine how four processing decisions, including temporal sampling window (TSW), spatial threshold of contact (SpTh), minimum contact duration (MCD), and temporal aggregation (daily or hourly) influence the information content of contact data (indicated by changes in entropy) as well as disease transmission model dynamics. We found that changes made to information content by processing decisions translated to significant impacts to the transmission dynamics of disease models using the contact data. In particular, we found that SpTh had the largest independent influence on information content, and that some output metrics (R₀, time to peak infection) were more sensitive to changes in information than others (epidemic extent). These findings suggest that insights gained from transmission modeling using dynamic contact data can be influenced by processing decisions alone, emphasizing the need to carefully consideration them prior to using contact-based models to conduct analyses, compare different datasets, or inform policy decisions.

Investigating behavioral drivers of seasonal Shiga-Toxigenic Escherichia Coli (STEC) patterns in grazing cattle using an agent-based model

The causes of seasonal variability in pathogen transmission are not well understood, and have not been comprehensively investigated. In an example for enteric pathogens, incidence of Escherichia coli O157 (STEC) colonization in cattle is consistently higher during warmer months compared to cooler months in various cattle production systems. However, actual mechanisms for this seasonality remain elusive. In addition, the influence of host (cattle) behavior on this pattern has not been thoroughly considered. To that end, we constructed a spatially explicit agent-based model that accounted for the effect of temperature fluctuations on cattle behavior (direct contact among cattle and indirect between cattle and environment), as well as its effect on pathogen survival in the environment. We then simulated the model in a factorial approach to evaluate the hypothesis that temperature fluctuations can lead to seasonal STEC transmission dynamics by influencing cattle aggregation, grazing, and drinking behaviors. Simulation results showed that higher temperatures increased the frequency at which cattle aggregated under shade in pasture, resulting in increased direct contact and transmission of STEC between individual cattle, and hence higher incidence over model simulations in the warm season. In contrast, increased drinking behavior during warm season was not an important transmission pathway. Although sensitivity analyses suggested that the relative importance of direct vs. indirect (environmental) pathways depend to upon model parameterization, model simulations indicated that factors influencing cattle aggregation, such as temperature, were likely strong drivers of transmission dynamics of enteric pathogens.

Predictive Modeling for West Nile Virus and Mosquito Surveillance in Lubbock, Texas

West Nile virus (WNV) was first detected in North America during 1999, and has since spread throughout the contiguous USA. West Nile virus causes West Nile fever and the more severe West Nile neuroinvasive disease. As part of a WNV vector surveillance program, we collected mosquitoes in Lubbock, Texas, using CO₂-baited encephalitic vector survey (EVS) traps. During 219 wk from 2009 through 2017, EVS traps were operated for 1,748 trap nights, resulting in more than 101,000 mosquitoes captured. Weekly, selected female mosquito specimens were pooled by species and trap site, and screened for WNV using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay. Mosquitoes positive for WNV were detected during 16.9% (37/219) of the weeks. Using this information, we constructed a statistical model to predict the probability of detecting an infection within a mosquito pool as a factor of weather variables. The final model indicated that detection of WNV in mosquitoes was negatively associated with the week of year squared and average wind from 3 wk prior to sampling, and was positively associated with week of year, average visibility, average humidity from 2 wk prior to sampling, and average dew point from 4 wk prior to sampling. The model developed in this study may aid public health and vector control programs in swift and effective decision making relative to city-wide mosquito control efforts by predicting when the chances of mosquitoes having WNV are at their greatest.

Transgenerational endpoints provide increased sensitivity and insight into multigenerational responses of Lymnaea stagnalis exposed to cadmium

Ecotoxicology provides data to inform environmental management. Many testing protocols do not consider offspring fitness and toxicant sensitivity. Cadmium (Cd) is a well-studied and ubiquitous toxicant but little is known about the effects on offspring of exposed parents (transgenerational effects). This study had three objectives: to identify endpoints related to offspring performance; to determine whether parental effects would manifest as a change in Cd tolerance in offspring and how parental exposure duration influenced the manifestation of parental effects. Adult snails were exposed to Cd 0, 25, 50, 100, 200 and 400 μg Cd/L for eight weeks. There were effects on adult endpoints (e.g., growth, reproduction) but only at the highest concentrations (>100 μg/L). Alternatively, we observed significant transgenerational effects at all Cd concentrations. Surprisingly, we found increased Cd tolerance in hatchlings from all parental Cd exposure concentrations even though eggs and hatchlings were in Cd-free conditions for 6 weeks. Explicit consideration of offspring performance adds value to current toxicity testing protocols. Parental exposure duration has important implications for offspring effects and that contaminant concentrations that are not directly toxic to parents can cause transgenerational changes in resistance that have significant implications for toxicity testing and adaptive responses.

Long-term trends of radiocesium activity concentrations in vegetation in Irish semi-natural ecosystems

137Cs activity concentrations were determined in vegetation from four Irish blanket bog ecosystems during the summer months of 1989-1997. The dominant and abundant vegetation species were sampled at each site and the data were used to estimate long-term trends of 137Cs activity concentrations. A general decline in the 137Cs activity concentrations in vegetation was observed from all sites sampled. The fastest and most consistent long-term rates of 137Cs decline were observed in the bryophyte and lichen vegetation group with 137Cs effective half-life (T ef) values of 2.2 to 10.7 y. The ericoid group with the exception of one case also showed a significant long-term decline in 137Cs activity concentrations with T ef values of 3.5 to 12.4 y as did the rush species Juncus squarrosus (T ef range 9.3 to 12.8 y). The sedge and grass groups showed the slowest and the least consistent rates of 137Cs decline, with T ef values of 2.9 to 59.8 y. Preliminary evaluation of 137Cs activity concentrations in sheep from some of the studied sites suggests that the decline found in vegetation is reflected in sheep.

Seasonal variations in the transfer of 137Cs and 40K to pasture grass and its ingestion by grazing animals

Samples of grass and sheep faeces were taken monthly over a 12-month period from three pasture sites. Biomass, 137Cs and 40K were measured. The activity concentration of these two radionuclides in grass was influenced by season and soil type. The seasonal patterns of 137Cs and 40K transfer to grass were inversely related, but evidence is presented which suggests that soil contamination of grass samples contributed to the 137Cs and 40K activity concentrations of the grass and augmented the difference between their patterns of transfer. This was influenced by season, climate and farm management. A parallel seasonality was identified in the 137Cs activity concentration of the faeces of sheep grazing these pastures. This was not observed for 40K in sheep faeces.

Assessment of the role of soil adhesion in the transfer of 137Cs and 40K to pasture grass

137Cs and 40K were analyzed in pasture grass and soils throughout a 12-month period. The titanium content of the samples was determined as a marker of soil contamination of the grass samples. The 137Cs activity concentration in the grass was closely correlated with titanium and both increase in the winter months suggesting that increased soil contamination of grass is responsible for the increased 137Cs activity concentration observed at this time. The method greatly overestimates the contribution made by soil to the 137Cs activity concentrations of the grass samples and the results are highly variable. Some problems associated with the method are discussed and it is proposed that this method is unreliable.

Tumor necrosis factor and chemotherapeutic agents. Potentiation of cytotoxicity with interferon gamma

This study examined combinations of the recombinant human cytokines, tumor necrosis factor alpha and interferon gamma, with doxorubicin and dactinomycin as well as other drugs on six squamous cell carcinoma cell lines of head and neck origin using the 3(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)2,5-diphenyl-tetrazolium bromide proliferation assay. Interferon gamma significantly enhanced the cytotoxicity of tumor necrosis factor alpha with dactinomycin on all six cell lines investigated, while in four of six cell lines the cytotoxicity of tumor necrosis factor alpha with doxorubicin was significantly augmented by interferon gamma. Additional experiments showed no effect with either cytokine in combination with cisplatin, fluorouracil, methotrexate, or etoposide. These data demonstrate that human recombinant cytokines in concert with certain drugs improve in vitro cytotoxicity and may have a potential for improving in vivo therapy.

Effects of topography on caesium-137 in montane peat soils and vegetation

This study investigated the relationship between altitude and 137Cs fallout in soils and plants. The soils and plants, Calluna vulgaris, Erica cinerea and Molinia caerulea, were sampled across a transect of two valleys in north-western Ireland. The results provided evidence that greater 137Cs deposition to soils occurred at higher altitudes, and the data supported the findings of a previous investigation in the same area. A valley effect, whereby greater concentrations of 137Cs accumulated in plants on the lower altitudes of the valley floors, was shown to be significant. Deposition values for total 137Cs in soils were not correlated with plant concentrations, although a relationship between concentrations in C. vulgaris and M. caerulea was found to be statistically significant. No relationship was observed between the 137Cs from weapons fallout with that of Chernobyl origin in the 0-10 cm depth soils, although a significant correlation emerged between the same two components measured in C. vulgaris. The results suggest that existing definitions of concentration ratios and transfer factors are, for many reasons, inappropriate for studies of soil to plant transfer of 137Cs in peatland ecosystems.

The effect of hyperbaric oxygen on growth of human squamous cell carcinoma xenografts

Hyperbaric oxygen is an important adjunct to the treatment of patients with head and neck cancer with existing or recurrent wound healing problems. Anecdotal clinical observations and a recent study of chemically induced oral cancer in hamsters have raised concern that hyperbaric oxygen therapy may accelerate tumor growth in such patients. This study evaluated the effect of hyperbaric oxygen therapy on the growth of human squamous cell carcinoma xenografts in a proved animal model. Fresh tumor specimens from three patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma of varying degrees of differentiation were first subcutaneously transplanted into a nude mouse host. Growing xenografts were then transplanted into one of three mouse groups. Half of the mice in each group were given hyperbaric oxygen therapy. The transplant volume as an index of tumor growth was measured in controls and mice given hyperbaric oxygen therapy six times during the 3-week course. Xenograft growth was almost linear in all mice. No statistical difference in overall group mean growth rates was observed in mice given hyperbaric oxygen or control mice regardless of the degree of tumor differentiation. Xenograft tissue from all mice was microscopically examined for tumor mitotic indices and degree of differentiation. This study suggests that hyperbaric oxygen therapy has no effect on established tumor xenograft growth.

Malignant nerve sheath tumors of the head and neck: a combined experience from two university hospitals

Malignant schwannoma is an aggressive neoplasm whose cell of origin and histologic characteristics remain controversial. Despite advances in diagnostic techniques, the natural history of this tumor remains uncertain. The charts of all patients with malignant schwannoma who were treated at the UCLA Center for the Health Sciences and the University of Iowa Hospital and Clinics were retrospectively reviewed. Sixteen patients received surgery and radiotherapy in combination or as sole therapy. Irrespective of treatment modality, prognosis was poor with an overall survival of 15%. Recent advances in imaging and histologic techniques that assist in establishing the diagnosis and delineating tumor location are discussed. In addition, the literature pertaining to malignant schwannoma of the head and neck is reviewed.

Squamous cell carcinoma in an inverted papilloma of the buccal mucosa

Inverted papillomas of the oral cavity are rare lesions. Although in the seven oral cases previously reported the lesions were benign, approximately 10% to 15% of inverted papillomas of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinuses develop or are associated with squamous cell carcinoma. This report presents a case of squamous cell carcinoma arising in an inverted papilloma of the buccal mucosa. Histologically, this lesion demonstrated the morphologic features of inverted papilloma in the superficial portion, and squamous carcinoma in deeper sections. This case suggests that although rare, inverted papillomas of the oral cavity should be considered potentially malignant or capable of harboring a malignancy.

Tumor necrosis factor and cytotoxic agents. Effect on squamous carcinoma lines

The cytotoxicity of dactinomycin (actinomycin D), doxorubicin hydrochloride (Adriamycin), cisplatin, fluorouracil, and methotrexate alone and in combination with recombinant human tumor necrosis factor (rHuTNF) on human squamous cell carcinoma lines was studied by an MTT proliferation assay. The rHuTNF alone caused no inhibition after 24 to 72 hours. All lines investigated showed a dose-dependent response to dactinomycin and doxorubicin. Potentiation of dactinomycin and doxorubicin cytotoxicity occurred with four of six cell lines following incubation of rHuTNF and the drug. No synergistic effect on cytotoxicity was seen with rHuTNF and any chemotherapeutic agent on two cell lines. The addition of rHuTNF did not augment the cytotoxic effect seen with cisplatin, methotrexate, or fluorouracil on any cell line. These results show that rHuTNF can enhance the cytotoxic effect of certain chemotherapeutic agents on squamous cell lines in vitro.

Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of plasma for the detection of head and neck cancer

The plasma of 15 normal volunteers, four patients with benign head and neck disease, and 12 patients with biopsy proven head and neck malignancies were evaluated using water-suppressed nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. While the mean full width at half height (HHLW) of the NMR spectra showed a significant difference between groups (P less than .05), the predictive value of a positive test was only 57% the sensitivity was only 33%, and individual values in all groups demonstrated considerable overlap. The mean HHLW of the control group was 38.5 Hz +/- 3.5 compared with 35.2 Hz +/- 4.7 for the cancer group and 35.0 Hz +/- 10 for the benign disease group. This method was not able to distinguish patients with malignancy from those with benign disease or controls. Its use as a specific screening method for head and neck malignancy cannot be recommended.

Assessment of immunocompetent cells in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck have impaired T cell function and poor tumor-specific responsiveness. Disproportionate levels of circulating immunocompetent cells could be one reason for this diminished immunity. In this study, a panel of monoclonal antibodies and flow cytofluorometry were used to define the relative proportions of selected immune cell populations. We detected a deficiency of the interleukin-2-producing subset of T helper-inducer cells (TH 5.2+) in these patients. Our data showed no significant differences in circulating levels of total T cells, T cell subsets, B cells, monocytes, or natural killer cells when compared to age, alcohol- and tobacco-use matched controls.