Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens.

Public health spending, primary care, and perceived risk promoted vaccination against H1N1

The purpose of this study is to examine factors affecting the intent to vaccinate during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and to leverage the results to inform public health policy decisions aimed at increasing vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the National 2009 H1N1 Flu Survey data and state-level administrative data, we employ logistic regression and mediation models to estimate the association between vaccine uptake and state level public health spending, political ideology, and H1N1 case and death rates as well as a set of individual and household characteristics. We find that higher public health spending can significantly increase the intent to vaccinate, mainly through raising concerns about the pandemic and promoting vaccine relevant doctor patient interactions. We conclude that physicians, especially primary care physicians, should play more important roles in the ongoing vaccination efforts against the COVID-19 virus.

Does social capital increase healthcare financing's projection? Results from the rural household of Uttar Pradesh, India

In the absence of adequate social security, out-of-pocket health expenditure compels households to adopt coping strategies, such as utilizing savings, selling assets, or acquiring external financial support (EFS) by borrowing with interest. Households' probability of acquiring EFS and its amount (intensity) depends on its social capital – the nature of social relationships and resources embedded within social networks. This study examines the effect of social capital on the probability and intensity of EFS during health events in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India. The analysis used data from a cross-sectional survey of 6218 households, reporting 3066 healthcare events, from two districts of UP. Household heads (HH) reported demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related information, including EFS, for each household member. Self-reported data from Shortened and Adapted Social Capital Assessment Tool in India (SASCAT-I) was used to generate four unique social capital measures (organizational participation, social support, trust, and social cohesion) at HH and community-level, using multilevel confirmatory factor analysis. After descriptive analysis, two-part mixed-effect models were implemented to estimate the probability and intensity of EFS as a function of social capital measures, where multilevel mixed-effects probit regression was used as the first-part and multilevel mixed-effects linear model with log link and gamma distribution as the second-part. Controlling for all covariates, the probability of acquiring EFS significantly increased (p = 0.04) with higher social support of the HH and significantly decreased (p = 0.02) with higher community social cohesion. Conditional to receiving any EFS, higher social trust of the HH resulted in higher intensity of EFS (p = 0.09). Social support and trust may enable households to cope up with financial stress. However, controlling for the other dimensions of social capital, high cohesiveness with the community might restrict a household's access to external resources demonstrating the unintended effect of social capital exerted by formal or informal social control.

•

Social support assists household head to acquire external financing for healthcare payment.

•

But higher social support may not secure higher intensity of receiving external financing.

•

However, trust is a catalyst to acquire more financing conditional of any external financing was acquire in the first place.

•

Living in a cohesive community may restrict access to external financial resources.

Impact of Neighborhood Social and Environmental Resources on Medicaid Spending

INTRODUCTION

In an era of COVID-19, Black Lives Matter, and unsustainable healthcare spending, efforts to address the root causes of health are urgently needed. Research linking medical spending to variation in neighborhood resources is critical to building the case for increased funding for social conditions. However, few studies link neighborhood factors to medical spending. This study assesses the relationship between neighborhood social and environmental resources and medical spending across the spending distribution.

METHODS

Individual-level health outcomes were drawn from a sample of Medicaid enrollees living in Baltimore, Maryland during 2016. A multidimensional index of neighborhood social and environmental resources was created and stratified by tertile (high, medium, and low). Differences were examined in individual-level medical spending associated with living in high-, medium-, or low-resource neighborhoods in unadjusted and adjusted 2-part models and quantile regression models. Analyses were conducted in 2019.

RESULTS

Enrollees who live in neighborhoods with low social and environmental resources incur significantly higher spending at the mean and across the distribution of medical spending even after controlling for age, race, sex, and morbidity than those who live in neighborhoods with high social and environmental resources. On average, this spending difference between individuals in low- and those in high-resource neighborhoods is estimated to be $523.60 per person per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Living in neighborhoods with low (versus those with high) resources is associated with higher individual-level medical spending across the distribution of medical spending. Findings suggest potential benefits from efforts to address the social and environmental context of neighborhoods in addition to the traditional orientation to addressing individual behavior and risk.

Systematic assessment of South Korea's capabilities to control COVID-19

South Korea’s COVID-19 control strategy has been widely emulated. Korea’s ability to rapidly achieve disease control in early 2020 without a “Great Lockdown” despite its proximity to China and high population density make its achievement particularly intriguing. This paper helps explain Korea’s pre-existing capabilities which enabled the rapid and effective implementation of its COVID-19 control strategies. A systematic assessment across multiple domains demonstrates that South Korea’s advantages in controlling its epidemic are owed tremendously to legal and organizational reforms enacted after the MERS outbreak in 2015. Successful implementation of the Korean strategy required more than just a set of actions, measures and policies. It relied on a pre-existing legal framework, financing arrangements, governance and a workforce experienced in outbreak management.

Child Housing Assessment for a Safe Environment (CHASE): a new tool for injury prevention inside the home

OBJECTIVE

To develop a tool to assess the safety of the home environment that could produce valid measures of a child's risk of suffering an injury.

METHODS

Tool development: A four-step process was used to develop the CHASE (Child Housing Assessment for a Safe Environment) tool, including (1) a literature scan, (2) reviewing of existing housing inspection tools, (3) key informants interviews, and (4) reviewing the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System to determine the leading housing elements associated with paediatric injury. Retrospective case-control study to validate the CHASE tool: Recruitment included case (injured) and control (sick but not injured) children and their families from a large, urban paediatric emergency department in Baltimore, Maryland in 2012. Trained inspectors applied both the well-known Home Quality Standard (HQS) and the CHASE tool to each enrollee's home, and we compared scores on individual and summary items between cases and controls.

RESULTS

Twenty-five items organised around 12 subdomains were included on the CHASE tool. 71 matched pairs were enrolled and included in the analytic sample. Comparisons between cases and controls revealed statistically significant differences in scores on individual items of the CHASE tool as well as on the overall score, with the cases systematically having worse scores. No differences were found between groups on the HQS measures.

CONCLUSION

Programmes conducting housing inspections in the homes of children should consider including the CHASE tool as part of their inspection measures. Future study of the CHASE inspection tool in a prospective trial would help assess its efficacy in preventing injuries and reducing medical costs.

Road safety risk factors for non-motorised vehicle users in a Chinese city: an observational study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to describe and analyse the prevalence of speeding, helmet use and red-light running among riders of non-motorised vehicles (NMVs) in Shanghai, China, with a focus on electric bikes (ebikes).

METHODS

Observational studies were conducted in eight randomly selected locations in Shanghai. Descriptive statistics and a Cox proportional hazard (PH) model were used in the analyses.

FINDINGS

A total of 14 828 NMVs were observed in November 2017. At the free flow sites, the average speed was 22.5 km/hour for ebikes and 13.4 km/hour for bicycles. 95.5% of ebikes run above 15 km/hour, the legal speed limit for NMVs in China and 83.8% above 20 km/hour, the maximum design speed for ebikes. Helmet wearing rate was 13.5% for ebike drivers and 9.4% for passengers. Riders of commercial ebikes were nearly three times more likely to wear a helmet than personal ebikes. 22.4% of ebikes were observed to run a red light. The Cox PH model showed that ebikes (vs bicycles), males (vs females), clear weather (vs cloudy, rainy and snowy), helmet users (vs nonusers) are associated with a higher hazard for running a red light.

CONCLUSION

To our knowledge, this study is among the first comprehensive evaluation of road user behaviours for NMVs in China. An effective intervention package including regulating ebike production to national standards, strengthening speed enforcement and passing legislation on mandatory helmet use for ebike users may be able to help.

Punching above their weight: a network to understand broader determinants of increasing life expectancy

Background

Life expectancy initially improves rapidly with economic development but then tails off. Yet, at any level of economic development, some countries do better, and some worse, than expected – they either punch above or below their weight. Why this is the case has been previously researched but no full explanation of the complexity of this phenomenon is available.

New research network

In order to advance understanding, the newly formed Punching Above Their Weight Research Network has developed a model to frame future research. It provides for consideration of the following influences within a country: political and institutional context and history; economic and social policies; scope for democratic participation; extent of health promoting policies affecting socio-economic inequities; gender roles and power dynamics; the extent of civil society activity and disease burdens.

Conclusion

Further research using this framework has considerable potential to advance effective policies to advance health and equity.

Results of an RCT in Two Pediatric Emergency Departments to Evaluate the Efficacy of an m-Health Educational App on Car Seat Use

INTRODUCTION

The growing interest in incorporating prevention into emergency health care make it timely to examine the use of computer technology to efficiently deliver effective education in this setting.

STUDY DESIGN

This RCT compared results from an intervention group (n=367) that received child passenger safety information, to an attention-matched control (n=375). A baseline survey and two follow-up surveys at 3 and 6 months were conducted.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Data were collected from June 2014 to September 2016 from a sample of parents with children aged 4-7 years recruited from a pediatric emergency department in an East Coast urban area and one in a Midwest semi-rural area.

INTERVENTION

A theory-based, stage-tailored educational program, Safety in Seconds v2.0^TM, delivered on a mobile app.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Four car seat behaviors: (1) having the correct restraint for the child's age and weight; (2) having the child ride in the backseat all the time; (3) buckling up the child all the time; and (4) having the child's restraint inspected by a child passenger safety technician.

RESULTS

At 3 months, adjusting for baseline behaviors and attrition, the odds of reporting the correct behavior by the intervention group relative to the control group was 2.07 (p<0.01) for using the correct car seat; 2.37 (p<0.05) times for having the child ride in the back seat; 1.04 (nonsignificant) for riding buckled up all the time; and 1.99 (p<0.01) times for having the car seat inspected. At 6 months, there were statistically significant effects for reporting use of the correct car seat (OR=1.84, p<0.01) and having the car seat inspected (OR=1.73, p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Mobile apps hold promise for reaching large populations with individually tailored child passenger safety education.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trial Registration # NCT02345941.

Can task-shifting work at scale?: Comparing clinical knowledge of non-physician clinicians to physicians in Nigeria

Background

In contexts with severe physician shortages, the World Health Organization advocates task shifting to cadres with shorter training. To investigate the effects of task shifting at scale in primary health care, we assessed the clinical knowledge of non-physician clinicians versus physicians working in public primary care facilities in Nigeria.

Methods

We assessed 4138 health workers using clinical vignettes of hypothetical patients suffering from illnesses commonly seen in primary care. Facility-level fixed effects models were used to compare health worker knowledge of (i) consultation guidelines, (ii) diagnostic accuracy and (iii) treatment guidelines.

Results

Unadjusted averages of overall health worker knowledge were low across all types of worker except medical officers. After adjustment for potential confounding, the differences across all three measures between cadres became small or statistically insignificant.

Conclusion

Non-physician clinicians can provide the same quality of primary care, for a set of common illnesses, as Medical Officers with similar personal characteristics, but clinical skills across cadres need strengthening.

One Outcome, Many Trends: Understanding National Data Sources for Road Traffic Fatalities in China

OBJECTIVES

To better understand national data sources and evaluate time trends in road traffic fatalities (RTF) in China.

METHODS

We reviewed national sources on RTF data. These included population-based report from the Ministry of Public Security (MPS), sample-based estimates from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and the Disease Surveillance Points System (DSP), as well as model-based estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD).

RESULTS

All data sources have limitations in coverage, representativeness or overreliance on model specifications. Despite the discrepancies in methodologies and estimates, all sources indicated an increase in RTF before 2005. Since then, MPS and GBD indicated a decrease, DSP showed plateauing, and MOH and WHO suggested increasing fatalities. However, despite any recent decline, RTF remain high.

CONCLUSIONS

The divergent trends in RTF across data sets in China implies a challenge to understanding China's experience with addressing RTF. China needs to reconcile data sources and further improve road safety.

Neurocognitive Correlates of Young Drivers' Performance in a Driving Simulator

PURPOSE

Differences in neurocognitive functioning may contribute to driving performance among young drivers. However, few studies have examined this relation. This pilot study investigated whether common neurocognitive measures were associated with driving performance among young drivers in a driving simulator.

METHODS

Young drivers (19.8 years (standard deviation [SD] = 1.9; N = 74)) participated in a battery of neurocognitive assessments measuring general intellectual capacity (Full-Scale Intelligence Quotient, FSIQ) and executive functioning, including the Stroop Color-Word Test (cognitive inhibition), Wisconsin Card Sort Test-64 (cognitive flexibility), and Attention Network Task (alerting, orienting, and executive attention). Participants then drove in a simulated vehicle under two conditions-a baseline and driving challenge. During the driving challenge, participants completed a verbal working memory task to increase demand on executive attention. Multiple regression models were used to evaluate the relations between the neurocognitive measures and driving performance under the two conditions.

RESULTS

FSIQ, cognitive inhibition, and alerting were associated with better driving performance at baseline. FSIQ and cognitive inhibition were also associated with better driving performance during the verbal challenge. Measures of cognitive flexibility, orienting, and conflict executive control were not associated with driving performance under either condition.

CONCLUSIONS

FSIQ and, to some extent, measures of executive function are associated with driving performance in a driving simulator. Further research is needed to determine if executive function is associated with more advanced driving performance under conditions that demand greater cognitive load.

Factors Contributing to Maternal and Child Mortality Reductions in 146 Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 1990 and 2010

Introduction

From 1990–2010, worldwide child mortality declined by 43%, and maternal mortality declined by 40%. This paper compares two sources of progress: improvements in societal coverage of health determinants versus improvements in the impact of health determinants as a result of technical change.

Methods

This paper decomposes the progress made by 146 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in lowering childhood and maternal mortality into one component due to better health determinants like literacy, income, and health coverage and a second component due to changes in the impact of these health determinants. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Regression models are used to estimate impact size in 1990 and again in 2010. Changes in the levels of health determinants were measured using secondary data.

Findings

The model shows that respectively 100% and 89% of the reductions in maternal and child mortality since 1990 were due to improvements in nationwide coverage of health determinants. The relative share of overall improvement attributable to any single determinant varies by country and by model specification. However, in aggregate, approximately 50% of the mortality reductions were due to improvements in the health sector, and the other 50% of the mortality reductions were due to gains outside the health sector.

Conclusions

Overall, countries improved maternal and child health (MCH) from 1990 to 2010 mainly through improvements in the societal coverage of a broad array of health system, social, economic and environmental determinants of child health. These findings vindicate efforts by the global community to obtain such improvements, and align with the post-2015 development agenda that builds on the lessons from the MDGs and highlights the importance of promoting health and sustainable development in a more integrated manner across sectors.

Cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis screening and isoniazid treatment in the TB/HIV in Rio (THRio) Study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis (TB) screening and isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

DESIGN

We used decision analysis, populated by data from a cluster-randomized trial, to project the costs (in 2010 USD) and effectiveness (in disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] averted) of training health care workers to implement the tuberculin skin test (TST), followed by IPT for TST-positive patients with no evidence of active TB. This intervention was compared to a baseline of usual care. We used time horizons of 1 year for the intervention and 20 years for disease outcomes, with all future DALYs and medical costs discounted at 3% per year.

RESULTS

Providing this intervention to 100 people would avert 1.14 discounted DALYs (1.57 undiscounted DALYs). The median estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $2273 (IQR $1779-$3135) per DALY averted, less than Brazil's 2010 per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of $11,700. Results were most sensitive to the cost of providing the training.

CONCLUSION

Training health care workers to screen HIV-infected adults with TST and provide IPT to those with latent tuberculous infection can be considered cost-effective relative to the Brazilian GDP per capita.

Reducing unintended pregnancies: a microsimulation of contraceptive switching, discontinuation, and failure patterns in france

Although the rate of contraceptive use in France is high, more than one-third of pregnancies are unintended. We built a dynamic microsimulation model that applies data from the French COCON study on method switching, discontinuation, and failure rates to a hypothetical population of 20,000 women, followed for five years. We use the model to estimate the adjustment factor needed to make the survey data fit the demographic profile of France by adjusting for underreporting of contraceptive nonuse and abortion. We then test three behavior-change scenarios that could reduce unintended pregnancies: decreasing method failure, increasing time using effective methods, and increasing switching from less effective to more effective methods. Our model suggests that decreasing method failure is the most effective means of reducing unintended pregnancies, but we found that all of the scenarios reduced unintended pregnancies by at least 25 percent. Dynamic microsimulations may have great potential in reproductive health research and prove useful for policymakers.

Estimating the influence of maternal height on under-five mortality in Nigeria

This study uses a nationally representative data sample to assess the effect of maternal height as an intergenerational influence on under-five mortality. Data from the 2003 and 2008 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) (n = 41,005) selecting women aged 15 to 49 yrs whose most recent births were within 5 years (n = 23,568), were analyzed. The outcome measure was under-five mortality. Independent variables included maternal height categorized as > or = 63 inch, 61-62.9 inch, 59.1-60.9 inch, < 59.1 inch. Confounding factors were controlled for. A multivariable logistic regression was used to obtain odds ratio estimates along with their respective confidence interval. After adjusting for confounding factors, we found that each 1 inch increase in maternal height, was associated with a decreased odds of mortality OR 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-0.99). The OR of under-five mortality when comparing women > or = 63 inch versus women < 59.1 inch was 1.13 (95% CI 0.98-1.31). The population attributable fraction of child death due to maternal short stature was 0.36.

Impact of road traffic deaths on expected years of life lost and reduction in life expectancy in Brazil

The road traffic crash burden is significant in Brazil; calculating years of life lost and life expectancy reduction quantifies the burden of road traffic deaths to enable prioritization of this issue. Years of life lost and reduction in life expectancy were calculated using 2008 population/crash data from Brazil's ministries of health and transport. The potential for reduction in crash mortality was calculated for hypothetical scenarios reducing death rates to those of the best-performing region and age category. In Brazil, road traffic deaths reduce the at-birth life expectancy by 0.8 years for males and by 0.2 years for females. Many years of life lost for men and woman could be averted-270,733 and 123,986, respectively-if all rates matched those of the lowest-risk region and age category. This study further characterizes the burden of motor vehicle deaths in Brazil and quantifies the potential health benefits of policies/interventions that reduce road traffic death rates to those of the best-performing subpopulations.

Use of the non-pneumatic anti-shock garment (NASG) for life-threatening obstetric hemorrhage: a cost-effectiveness analysis in Egypt and Nigeria

Objective

To assess the cost-effectiveness of a non-pneumatic anti-shock garment (NASG) for obstetric hemorrhage in tertiary hospitals in Egypt and Nigeria.

Methods

We combined published data from pre-intervention/NASG-intervention clinical trials with costs from study sites. For each country, we used observed proportions of initial shock level (mild: mean arterial pressure [MAP] >60 mmHg; severe: MAP ≤60 mmHg) to define a standard population of 1,000 women presenting in shock. We examined three intervention scenarios: no women in shock receive the NASG, only women in severe shock receive the NASG, and all women in shock receive the NASG. Clinical data included frequencies of adverse health outcomes (mortality, severe morbidity, severe anemia), and interventions to manage bleeding (uterotonics, blood transfusions, hysterectomies). Costs (in 2010 international dollars) included the NASG, training, and clinical interventions. We compared costs and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across the intervention scenarios.

Results

For 1000 women presenting in shock, providing the NASG to those in severe shock results in decreased mortality and morbidity, which averts 357 DALYs in Egypt and 2,063 DALYs in Nigeria. Differences in use of interventions result in net savings of $9,489 in Egypt (primarily due to reduced transfusions) and net costs of $6,460 in Nigeria, with a cost per DALY averted of $3.13. Results of providing the NASG for women in mild shock has smaller and uncertain effects due to few clinical events in this data set.

Conclusion

Using the NASG for women in severe shock resulted in markedly improved health outcomes (2–2.9 DALYs averted per woman, primarily due to reduced mortality), with net savings or extremely low cost per DALY averted. This suggests that in resource-limited settings, the NASG is a very cost-effective intervention for women in severe hypovolemic shock. The effects of the NASG for mild shock are less certain.

Essential drugs policy in three rural counties in China: what does a complexity lens add?

In 2009 the government of China identified an essential drugs policy as one of five priority areas for health system reform. Since then, a national essential drugs policy has been defined, along with plans to implement it. As a large scale social intervention, the policy will have a significant impact on various local health actors. This paper uses the lens of complex adaptive systems to examine how the policy has been implemented in three rural Chinese counties. Using material gathered from interviews with key actors in county health bureaus and township health centers, we illustrate how a single policy can lead to multiple unanticipated outcomes. The complexity lens applied to the material gathered in interviews helps to identify relevant actors, their different relationships and policy responses and a new framework to better understand heterogeneous pathways and outcomes. Decision-makers and policy implementers are advised to embrace the complex and dynamic realities of policy implementation. This involves developing mechanisms to monitor different behaviors of key actors as well as the intended outcomes and unintended consequences of the policy.

Comparing private sector family planning services to government and NGO services in Ethiopia and Pakistan: how do social franchises compare across quality, equity and cost?

Policy makers in developing countries need to assess how public health programmes function across both public and private sectors. We propose an evaluation framework to assist in simultaneously tracking performance on efficiency, quality and access by the poor in family planning services. We apply this framework to field data from family planning programmes in Ethiopia and Pakistan, comparing (1) independent private sector providers; (2) social franchises of private providers; (3) non-government organization (NGO) providers; and (4) government providers on these three factors. Franchised private clinics have higher quality than non-franchised private clinics in both countries. In Pakistan, the costs per client and the proportion of poorest clients showed no differences between franchised and non-franchised private clinics, whereas in Ethiopia, franchised clinics had higher costs and fewer clients from the poorest quintile. Our results highlight that there are trade-offs between access, cost and quality of care that must be balanced as competing priorities. The relative programme performance of various service arrangements on each metric will be context specific.

THE HEALTH OF OLDER WOMEN AFTER HIGH PARITY IN TAFT, IRAN

High parity has been hypothesised to lead to a shorter and less healthy life. Using the 2007 Taft Ageing Health and Fertility Survey consisting of 696 women aged 50-79, this paper examines the extent to which women's health in middle and older ages is affected by their childbearing histories. The results show that high parity (> 8) is associated with a reduction of GP-rated health by 0.094 points on a scale from 1 to 10. These health reductions are four times as large as those of an extra year of age, and are robust to controlling for birth interval, age, area of residence, education, marital status, work history, economic satisfaction and surviving daughters. There is a positive but curvilinear relationship between shorter birth intervals (< 2 years) and GP-rated health accounting for socio-demographic factors. Our analysis suggests that parity and birth intervals, along with socio-demographic characteristics, affect women's well-being in later life.

During the 'decade of vaccines,' the lives of 6.4 million children valued at $231 billion could be saved

Governments constantly face the challenge of determining how much they should spend to prevent premature deaths and suffering in their populations. In this article we explore the benefits of expanding the delivery of life-saving vaccines in seventy-two low- and middle-income countries, which we estimate would prevent the deaths of 6.4 million children between 2011 and 2020. We present the economic benefits of vaccines by using a "value of statistical life" approach, which is based on individuals' perceptions regarding the trade-off between income and increased risk of mortality. Our analysis shows that the vaccine expansion described above corresponds to $231 billion (uncertainty range: $116-$614 billion) in the value of statistical lives saved. This analysis complements results from analyses based on other techniques and is the first of its kind for immunizations in the world's poorest countries. It highlights the major economic benefits made possible by improving vaccine coverage.

HPV testing for cervical cancer screening appears more cost-effective than Papanicolau cytology in Mexico

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incremental costs and effects of different HPV testing strategies, when compared to Papanicolau cytology (Pap), for cervical cancer screening in Mexico.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) examined the specific costs and health outcomes associated with (1) no screening; (2) only the Pap test; (3) only self-administered HPV; (4) only clinician administered HPV; and (5) clinician administered HPV plus the Pap test. The costs of self- and clinician-HPV testing, as well as with the Pap test, were identified and quantified. Costs were reported in 2008 US dollars. The health outcome associated with these screening strategies was defined as the number of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or cervical cancer cases detected. This CEA was performed using the perspective of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) in Morelos, Mexico.

RESULTS

Screening women between the ages of 30-80 for cervical cancer using clinical-HPV testing or the combination of clinical-HPV testing, and the Pap is always more cost-effective than using the Pap test alone.

CONCLUSIONS

This CEA indicates that HPV testing could be a cost-effective screening alternative for a large health delivery organization such as IMSS. These results may help policy-makers implement HPV testing as part of the IMSS cervical cancer screening program.

Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB

BACKGROUND

Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.

METHODS

A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/). Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.

RESULTS

MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.

CONCLUSIONS

The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

The estimated magnitude and direct hospital costs of prosthetic joint infections in the United States, 1997 to 2004

To estimate the number and cost of prosthetic joint infection hospitalizations in civilian US hospitals, we analyzed the 1997 to 2004 National Hospital Discharge Survey for the 996.66 International Classification of Diseases discharge code (infection or inflammatory reaction secondary to internal joint prosthesis). The annual number of such hospitalizations averaged 17 589 from 1997 to 2000 and 29 225 from 2001 to 2004. The annual adjusted diagnostic-related group cost for such infection increased from $195 million to $283 million (1997-2004). The mean diagnostic-related group reimbursement ($9034 per hospitalization) did not vary over time or by comorbidity. The nearly doubled number of prosthetic joint infection-related hospitalizations may have been caused by an increased implant rate, changes in patient population, implant procedures, or causative organisms.

Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis

BACKGROUND

Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision.

CONCLUSIONS

This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

Community-based distribution of misoprostol for treatment or prevention of postpartum hemorrhage: cost-effectiveness, mortality, and morbidity reduction analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the cost-effectiveness of community-based distribution of misoprostol for prevention with misoprostol for treatment of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH).

METHODS

A Monte Carlo simulation depicted mortality and anemia-related morbidity attributable to PPH among 3 scenarios of 10,000 women delivering at home in rural India: (1) standard management; (2) standard management plus 800microg of sublingual misoprostol for PPH treatment; and (3) standard management plus 600microg of prophylactic oral misoprostol. The model included costs of drugs, birth attendant training, and transport for women who did not respond to misoprostol.

RESULTS

Misoprostol lowered mortality by 70% and 81% in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenarios 2 and 3 raise costs by 6% and 35%, respectively. Incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved is estimated at $6 and $170, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Both interventions were more effective at decreasing mortality and anemia than standard management. The most efficient scale-up plan would focus initially on increasing coverage with the treatment strategy ($6 per DALY).

Changes in utilization of health services among poor and rural residents in Uganda: are reforms benefitting the poor?

BACKGROUND

Uganda implemented health sector reforms to make services more accessible to the population. An assessment of the likely impact of these reforms is important for informing policy. This paper describes the changes in utilization of health services that occurred among the poor and those in rural areas between 2002/3 and 2005/6 and associated factors.

METHODS

Secondary data analysis was done using the socio-economic component of the Uganda National Household Surveys 2002/03 and 2005/06. The poor were identified from wealth quintiles constructed using an asset based index derived from Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The probability of choice of health care provider was assessed using multinomial logistic regression and multi-level statistical models.

RESULTS

The odds of not seeking care in 2005/6 were 1.79 times higher than in 2002/3 (OR = 1.79; 95% CI 1.65 - 1.94). The rural population experienced a 43% reduction in the risk of not seeking care because of poor geographical access (OR = 0.57; 95% CI 0.48 - 0.67). The risk of not seeking care due to high costs did not change significantly. Private for profit providers (PFP) were the major providers of services in 2002/3 and 2005/6. Using PFP as base category, respondents were more likely to have used private not for profit (PNFP) in 2005/6 than in 2002/3 (OR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.58 - 2.92), and also more likely to use public facilities in 2005/6 than 2002/3 (OR = 1.31; 95% CI 1.15 - 1.48). The most poor, females, rural residents, and those from elderly headed households were more likely to use public facilities relative to PFP.

CONCLUSION

Although overall utilization of public and PNFP services by rural and poor populations had increased, PFP remained the major source of care. The odds of not seeking care due to distance decreased in rural areas but cost continued to be an important barrier to seeking health services for residents from poor, rural, and elderly headed households. Policy makers should consider targeting subsidies to the poor and rural populations. Public private partnerships should be broadened to increase access to health services among the vulnerable.

Risk factors for cervical cancer among HPV positive women in Mexico

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors that are associated with an increased risk of developing high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or cancer among human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive women in Mexico.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A case-control study design was used. A total of 94 cases and 501 controls who met the study inclusion criteria were selected from the 7 732 women who participated in the Morelos HPV Study from May 1999 to June 2000. Risk factor information was obtained from interviews and from HPV viral load results. Odds ratios and 95 percent confidence intervals were estimated using unconditional multivariate regression.

RESULTS

Increasing age, high viral load, a young age at first sexual intercourse, and a low socio-economic status are associated with an increased risk of disease among HPV-positive women.

CONCLUSIONS

These results could have important implications for future screening activities in Mexico and other low resource countries.

A systematic analysis of influenza vaccine shortage policies

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to apply SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) to a domestic shortage of influenza vaccine, to identify lessons learned, and to generate effective solutions for future public health rationing emergencies.

STUDY DESIGN/METHODS

SWOT and TOWS techniques were employed to characterize the vulnerability of the USA to disruptions in the supply of influenza vaccine. A group of five researchers reviewed relevant literature, engaged in group brainstorming, and categorized elements according to the SWOT framework.

RESULTS

Three strengths, five weaknesses, five threats and seven opportunities were identified in the areas of vaccine production, purchasing and distribution, and provision. Four future recommendations emerged with respect to government investment, communications, sanctioning of physicians, and incident command.

CONCLUSIONS

Application of the SWOT technique is highly relevant to the health policy realm and can assist public health planners in planning for future resource scarcity.

Local stakeholders' perspectives on improving the urban environment to reduce child pedestrian injury: implementing effective public health interventions at the local level

Local-level public health interventions require action from multiple agencies, organizations and individuals, yet little is known about how best to work with stakeholders to facilitate change. We sought local stakeholders' perspectives on how best to address impediments to implementing interventions designed to reduce child pedestrian injury by improving the pedestrian environment. We conducted 20 in-person, key informant interviews with people who would be the likely advocates for environmental change to improve the pedestrian environment in one US city, Baltimore, Maryland. We discuss the importance of reframing child pedestrian injury risk as a livability issue, increasing awareness about the potential impact of environmental changes to improve public safety, and the need for a formal efficient process to facilitate communication between local government and other stakeholders. These findings provide public health professionals and advocates with useful insight into how local stakeholders view the issue and their perspectives on how best to achieve change.

Lawnmower Injuries in the United States: 1996 to 2004

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We update the epidemiology of lawnmower injuries, together with leading mechanisms of lawnmower injury in the United States, for the entire age range by using nationally representative data.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Hospital Discharge Survey 1996-2003 and the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System 1996-2004.

RESULTS

Individuals in the 60- to 69-year age group had the highest push mower injury incidence in 2004, whereas those in the 70 years and older age group had the highest riding mower injury incidence. Children younger than 15 years also had a substantial injury incidence. Individuals in the 15- to 19-year age group had the highest rate of hospitalizations caused by lawnmower injuries from 1996 through 2003, with 0.72 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval 0.07 to 1.36). Debris from under the mower hitting a body part or entering the eye was the most common mechanism for lawnmower injury. The second most common mechanism of injury was nonspecific pain onset after the ordinary operation of the mower. Fracture of 1 or more phalanges of the foot was the most common diagnosis among lawnmower injury hospitalizations, with 34.4%, followed by traumatic amputation of the toe, with 32.4%. There is an increasing trend of lawnmower injuries in the United States during the last 9 years.

CONCLUSION

Lawnmower injuries increase with age, with peaks in persons older than 59 years. Given the high incidence of projectile-related injuries, improved protective apparel and eyewear could lower the rate of injury for all age groups. The increasing trend of lawnmower injuries in the United States suggests that more must be done to prevent lawnmower injuries.

Modeling the cost effectiveness of injury interventions in lower and middle income countries: opportunities and challenges

BACKGROUND

This paper estimates the cost-effectiveness of five interventions that could counter injuries in lower and middle income countries(LMICs): better traffic enforcement, erecting speed bumps, promoting helmets for bicycles, promoting helmets for motorcycles, and storing kerosene in child proof containers.

METHODS

We adopt an ingredients based approach to form models of what each intervention would cost in 6 world regions over a 10 year period discounted at both 3% and 6% from both the governmental and societal perspectives. Costs are expressed in local currency converted into US $2001. Each of these interventions has been assessed for effectiveness in a LMIC in limited region, these effectiveness estimates have been used to form models of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted for various regions, taking account of regional differences in the baseline burden of injury.

RESULTS

The interventions modeled in this paper have cost effectiveness ratios ranging from US $5 to $ 556 per DALY averted depending on region. Depending on local acceptability thresholds many of them could be judged cost-effective relative to interventions that are already adopted. Enhanced enforcement of traffic regulations is the most cost-effective interventions with an average cost per DALY of $64

CONCLUSION

Injury counter measures appear to be cost-effective based on models. More evaluations of real interventions will help to strengthen the evidence basis.

The market for antituberculosis drugs and vaccines: incentives for investment in new products

The market for antituberculosis drugs is reviewed briefly and an estimate is formed of the potential US market for a new and improved tuberculosis vaccine. By 2010, global sales of all antituberculosis drugs are expected to reach USD 612-670 million annually. An urgent need for better antituberculosis drugs exists that could permit a shorter course and less frequent dosing so that tuberculosis treatment regimens could scale up more rapidly. Should a more effective tuberculosis vaccine become available, there are approximately 18 million high-risk individuals in the USA alone for whom the vaccine would be demonstrably cost-beneficial. The high-risk groups include healthcare workers, military personnel, HIV-infected individuals, migrant farm workers and prisoners.

Can government policies help adolescents avoid risky behavior?

BACKGROUND

This study examines the extent to which policies influence participation of adolescents in alcohol and tobacco consumption and in unsafe sex.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the 1995 Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBS) conducted by 20 different states and cities in the U.S. These data were combined with state data on cigarette taxes, vending machine laws, beer taxes, and family planning clinic availability. A model of teenage risk taking suggested that the three risk behaviors were codetermined by a common latent risk-taking propensity. We used a structural equation model (SEM) accounting for this shared latent propensity to estimate the extent of participation in terms of frequency of smoking, drinking, and the number of sex partners.

RESULTS

Estimating simultaneous equations for all three risk behaviors was statistically more efficient than equation-by-equation estimates of each behavior. Estimates indicated significant deterrent effects of beer taxes, vending machine restrictions, and increased density of family planning clinics on teenage risk behavior.

CONCLUSIONS

State policies, such as taxes on beer, and restrictions on location of cigarette vending machines, and placement of family planning clinics influence adolescents' behavior. Because there is interrelationship between these behaviors, systems estimators, can offer improved estimates of these effects.

Telemedicine Network Telecolposcopy Compared with Computer-Based Telecolposcopy

OBJECTIVES

To compare computer-based telecolposcopy with telemedicine network telecolposcopy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An on-site expert and local clinician at two rural sites conducted colposcopic examinations on 264 women. Colposcopic images were captured and transmitted to two other experts at a remote location using a statewide telemedicine system and a computer and modem-based system. Sensitivity and specificity, agreement of examination adequacy and management, effects of delayed interpretations, and costs were compared for each system.

RESULTS

A greater rate of satisfactory colposcopy results was reported by the telemedicine network (66.1%) compared with computer-based (43.6%) telecolposcopy (p < .0001). Greater rates of cervical biopsy (p = .005) and endocervical curettage (p = .03) were required by delayed telecolposcopy compared with immediate telecolposcopic services. There were no significant differences in sensitivity of detecting cervical neoplasia among the types of the telecolposcopy. Computer-based telecolposcopy cost 28 dollars less per patient than telemedicine network telecolposcopy.

CONCLUSIONS

Computer-based telecolposcopy may be a reasonable, cost-effective adjunct to on-site colposcopy for evaluating women in medically underserved areas. Synchronous telecolposcopic examination minimizes histologic sampling and improves consultation.

What is the least costly strategy to evaluate cervical abnormalities in rural women? Comparing telemedicine, local practitioners, and expert physicians

OBJECTIVE

This study establishes the least costly strategy for evaluation of rural women in need of colposcopy among 3 alternatives: telemedicine, local practitioners, and referral experts.

METHODS

Women in rural Georgia who needed colposcopy were examined by an expert colposcopist on site, by a local practitioner, and by a distant expert colposcopist linked by telemedicine. Independent determinations of biopsy intent were used to model the differing biopsy costs of the 3 methods. Record review determined the average total cost of telemedicine. Reports of average cost in year 2000 dollars from societal perspective include medical costs and pain and suffering due to additional biopsies and curettage, telemedicine costs, and costs of potential diagnostic delay for a 1-year time horizon.

RESULTS

From the societal perspective in the baseline case, the average cost per patient evaluated was dollar 270 for patients seen by referral experts. The cost was dollar 38 less (e.g., dollar 232) for patients seen by local practitioners, and dollar 35 more (e.g., dollar 305) for patients seen by telemedicine. From the societal perspective, local practitioners were less costly than referral experts because of lower travel costs for patients, but from the medical perspective, their average cost was dollar 32 higher than referral experts because they performed more biopsies and curettage procedures than experts. Telemedicine assistance would have lowered the number of biopsies performed by local practitioners, but as of year 2000 the costs of this technology could not be justified by the savings.

CONCLUSION

From the societal perspective, local practitioners performing colposcopy are the least costly way to evaluate cervical abnormalities in rural patients with substantial time and travel costs.

Modeling the economic benefits of better TB vaccines

OBJECTIVE

To describe the economic benefits of a better tuberculosis (TB) vaccine by modeling prevented TB medical spending and lost productivity throughout the world.

DESIGN

One model is based on benefits obtained from reducing the impact of TB on health spending. An alternative model is based on minimizing the impact of TB on health spending and lost productivity due to death and disability. Both models are applied to various world populations based on secondary data.

RESULTS

In terms of avoided medical spending, preventing 100% of the TB risk in a single individual is estimated to be worth from $38 for males in formerly socialist countries to S0.23 for children in Asia. More than 1 billion people would reckon their expected medical savings to exceed $25.00 if they received a 75% effective vaccine of 10 years' duration. Preventing lost productivity is worth substantially more throughout the world.

CONCLUSIONS

Improved TB vaccines would be of substantial immediate financial value to most of the populations of the world, including the poorest. The scientific uncertainties surrounding the development of a better vaccine could be a larger obstacle than investor uncertainty over whether a vaccine would be profitable.

The willingness to pay for wait reduction: the disutility of queues for cataract surgery in Canada, Denmark, and Spain

We estimate demand curves for a one month reduction in waiting time for cataract surgery based on survey data collected in 1992 in Manitoba, Barcelona, and Denmark. Patients answered, "Would you be willing to pay [Bid, B] to reduce your waiting time for cataract surgery to less than one month?" Controlling for SES and visual status, Barcelonan patients have greater WTP for shortened waiting time than the Danes and Manitobans. We estimate the value (in 1992 $) of lost consumer surplus due to the cataract surgery queue at $128 per patient in Manitoba, $160 in Denmark, and $243 in Barcelona.