An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study

BACKGROUND AIMS

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

The MELD Score Is Superior to the Maddrey Discriminant Function Score to Predict Short-Term Mortality in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Global Study

INTRODUCTION

Several scoring systems predict mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), including the Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score developed in the United States, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score in the United Kingdom, and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score in Spain. To date, no global studies have examined the utility of these scores, nor has the MELD-sodium been evaluated for outcome prediction in AH. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of different scores to predict short-term mortality in AH and investigated additional factors to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients admitted to hospital with a definite or probable AH were recruited by 85 tertiary centers in 11 countries and across 3 continents. Baseline demographic and laboratory variables were obtained. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

In total, 3,101 patients were eligible for inclusion. After exclusions (n = 520), 2,581 patients were enrolled (74.4% male, median age 48 years, interquartile range 40.9-55.0 years). The median MELD score was 23.5 (interquartile range 20.5-27.8). Mortality at 28 and 90 days was 20% and 30.9%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 28-day mortality ranged from 0.776 for MELD-sodium to 0.701 for mDF, and for 90-day mortality, it ranged from 0.773 for MELD to 0.709 for mDF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mDF to predict death was significantly lower than all other scores. Age added to MELD obtained only a small improvement of AUC.

DISCUSSION

These results suggest that the mDF score should no longer be used to assess AH's prognosis. The MELD score has the best performance in predicting short-term mortality.

Hepatitis C eradication improves cognitive function in patients with or without cirrhosis: A prospective real-life study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with neuropsychiatric disturbances that impact on functioning and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Reversibility at different liver disease stages is unknown, particularly in cirrhosis. We aimed to evaluate cognition, functioning, and HRQoL following HCV eradication at different liver disease stages.

METHODS

A random sample (n = 152) of consecutive patients treated with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) between April 2015 and March 2017 were included. A comprehensive neuropsychological assessment, functioning and HRQoL questionnaires were applied at baseline, and 12 and 48 weeks after the end of antivirals.

RESULTS

One-hundred thirty-five patients who achieved virological response completed the follow-up, of whom 44 had cirrhosis (27% decompensated). Twenty-one percent had cognitive impairment before starting DAAs (34.1% cirrhotic vs. 14.4% noncirrhotic, p < 0.011). Viral eradication was associated with a decrease in cognitive impairment to 23% of cirrhotic and 6% of noncirrhotic patients (p < 0.05). Interestingly, older patients (B = 0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03-0.19) with baseline cognitive impairment (B = 3.58, 95% CI = 1.54-5.62) were those with higher cognitive benefit, regardless of liver disease. Persistent cognitive impairment was associated with having higher cardiovascular risk, cirrhosis, lower education, and higher anxiety and depression scores. Functioning and HRQoL also improved after eradication but remained worse in the cirrhotic group.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral eradication decreases the prevalence of cognitive impairment and improves functioning and HRQoL. Patients with lower brain reserve (older patients) and baseline cognitive impairment may benefit the most. Identification and treatment of HCV patients through screening programs may reduce the burden of cognitive disturbances beyond the prevention of liver disease progression.

Glecaprevir plus pibrentasvir for chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1, 2, 4, 5, or 6 infection in adults with compensated cirrhosis (EXPEDITION-1): a single-arm, open-label, multicentre phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

The once-daily, ribavirin-free, pangenotypic, direct-acting antiviral regimen, glecaprevir coformulated with pibrentasvir, has shown high rates of sustained virological response in phase 2 and 3 studies. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of 12 weeks of coformulated glecaprevir and pibrentasvir in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We did this single-arm, open-label, multicentre phase 3 study at 40 sites in Belgium, Canada, Germany, South Africa, Spain, and the USA. We enrolled patients aged 18 years or older with HCV genotype 1, 2, 4, 5, or 6 infection and compensated cirrhosis. Patients were either HCV treatment-naive or had not responded to treatment with interferon or pegylated interferon with or without ribavirin, or sofosbuvir plus ribavirin with or without pegylated interferon. Oral glecaprevir (300 mg) coformulated with pibrentasvir (120 mg) was administered once daily for 12 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint was sustained virological response at post-treatment week 12 (HCV RNA <15 IU/mL). We assessed efficacy and safety in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug (intention-to-treat population). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02642432.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 7, 2015, and May 4, 2016, we enrolled 146 patients with compensated cirrhosis, of whom 48 (33%) had genotype 1a HCV infection, 39 (27%) had genotype 1b infection, 34 (23%) had genotype 2 infection, 16 (11%) had genotype 4 infection, two (1%) had genotype 5 infection, and seven (5%) had genotype 6 infection. 12 weeks after treatment, 145 patients (99%, 95% CI 98-100) achieved sustained virological response, with one (1%) relapse at post-treatment week 8. We recorded 101 (69%) adverse events, of which 65 (64%) were mild. The most common adverse events were fatigue (n=28 [19%]) and headache (n=20 [14%]). 11 (8%) patients had serious adverse events, none of which were deemed related to study drugs. No patients had elevations in alanine aminotransferase and no patients prematurely discontinued treatment because of adverse events.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show that 99% of patients treated with once-daily glecaprevir plus pibrentasvir achieved a sustained virological response at 12 weeks. Furthermore, this drug regimen had a favourable safety profile in previously treated or untreated patients with chronic HCV genotype 1, 2, 4, 5, or 6 infection and compensated cirrhosis. These findings could help simplify treatment algorithms and reduce treatment burden.

FUNDING

AbbVie.

Predicting portal hypertension and variceal bleeding using non-invasive measurements of metabolic variables

BACKGROUND & AIM

This study assessed the involvement of metabolic factors (anthropometric indices, insulin resistance (IR) and adipocytokines) in the prediction of portal hypertension, esophageal varices and risk of variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Two prospective and retrospective cohorts of cirrhotic patients were selected (n = 357). The first prospective cohort (n = 280) enrolled consecutively in three centers, underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, seeking evidence of esophageal varices. Clinical, anthropometric, liver function tests, ultrasonographic, and metabolic features were recorded at the time of endoscopy, patients were followed-up every 6 months until death, liver transplantation or variceal bleeding. The second retrospective cohort (n = 48 patients) had measurements of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). Statistical analyses of the data were with the SPSS package.

RESULTS

The presence of esophageal varices was independently associated with lower platelet count, raised HOMA index and adiponectin levels. This relationship extended to subset analysis in patients with Child A cirrhosis. HOMA index and adiponectin levels significantly correlated with HVPG. Beside Child-Pugh class, variceal size and glucagonemia, HOMA index but not adiponectin and leptin plasma levels were associated with higher risk of variceal bleeding.

CONCLUSION

In patients with cirrhosis, HOMA score correlates with HVPG and independently predict clinical outcomes. Three simple markers i.e. platelet count, IR assessed by HOMA-IR and adiponectin significantly predict the presence of esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients.

Serum level of soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and its association with severity of liver disease

BACKGROUND

VCAM-1 (soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1) plays a role in liver angiogenesis. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has important angiogenic activity, so expression of VCAM-1 may be pathogenic.

AIM

To assess the association between serum VCAM-1 (sVCAM-1) levels and features of tumour and liver disease in patients with and without HCC, and to study the influence of HCC treatment on sVCAM-1 levels.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Concentrations in peripheral (sVCAM-1-P) and hepatic (sVCAM-1-H) veins were analysed using ELISA in 134 consecutive patients with chronic liver disease between May 2004 and February 2006, who underwent a splanchnic haemodynamic study. Of these patients, 58 had HCC.

RESULTS

sVCAM-1-P and sVCAM-1-H were well correlated in both groups. No association was found between sVCAM-1-H and tumour features. No differences were observed in sVCAM-1-H between HCC and non-HCC cirrhotic patients. There was a significant linear association between Child-Pugh stage and sVCAM-1-H in HCC-patients (Child-Pugh A [2,485 ± 1,294 ng/mL] vs. Child-Pugh B [3,408 ± 1,338 ng/mL] vs. Child-Pugh C [4,096 ± 862 ng/mL]; p = 0.007). Seven non-cirrhotic HCC patients had a significantly lower sVCAM-1-H than cirrhotic HCC patients. Treatment of HCC leads to an increase in sVCAM-1-H levels although this was not associated with the necrosis response to treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

sVCAM-1 levels are more closely associated with the severity of underlying liver disease than with the presence of HCC. sVCAM-1 levels are not associated with tumour features or invasiveness; therefore, sVCAM-1 does not seem to play an important role in the angiogenic processes of HCC.

Portal hypertensive colopathy is associated with portal hypertension severity in cirrhotic patients

AIM: To assess the prevalence of portal hypertension (PH) related colorectal lesions in liver transplant candidates, and to evaluate its association with the severity of PH.

METHODS: Between October 2004 and December 2005, colonoscopy was performed in 92 cirrhotic liver transplant candidates. We described the lesions resulting from colorectal PH and their association with the grade of PH in 77 patients who underwent measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG).

RESULTS: Mean age was 55 years and 80.7% of patients were men. The main etiology of cirrhosis was alcoholism (45.5%). Portal hypertensive colopathy (PHC) was found in 23.9%, colonic varices in 7.6% and polyps in 38% of patients (adenomatous type 65.2%). One asymptomatic patient had a well-differentiated adenocarcinoma. The manifestations of colorectal PH were not associated with the etiology of liver disease or with the Child-Pugh grade. Ninety percent of patients with colopathy presented with gastroesophageal varices (GEV), and 27.5% of patients with GEV presented with colopathy (P = 0.12). A relationship between higher values of HVPG and presence of colopathy was observed (19.9 ± 6.2 mmHg vs 16.8 ± 5.4 mmHg, P = 0.045), but not with the grade of colopathy (P = 0.13). Preneoplastic polyps and neoplasm (P = 0.02) and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (P = 0.006) were more prevalent in patients with colopathy. We did not observe any association between previous β-blocker therapy and the presence of colorectal portal hypertensive vasculopathy.

CONCLUSION: PHC is common in cirrhotic liver transplant candidates and is associated with higher portal pressure.

Humoral and cellular immune monitoring might be useful to identify liver transplant recipients at risk for development of infection

Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is a successful therapy for patients with end-stage liver disease, and infection remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality for patients undergoing this procedure. To assess humoral and cellular immunity markers as potential risk factors for development of infection, 46 consecutive liver transplant recipients (hepatitis C virus cirrhosis [n=17], alcoholic liver disease [n=15], hepatocellular carcinoma [n=9], autoimmune hepatitis [n=2], and other [n=3]) performed at a single center were prospectively studied. Maintenance therapy included tacrolimus (n=37) or cyclosporine (n=9) and prednisone. During follow-up, 27 patients had at least 1 episode of infection (58.7%). Pre-OLT immunoglobulin G (IgG) hypergammaglobulinemia (relative risk [RR] 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-6.60, P=0.02), pre-OLT IgA hypergammaglobulinemia (RR 2.77, CI=1.24-6.19, P=0.012), and pre-OLT C3 hypocomplementemia (RR 3.02, CI=1.21-7.55, P=0.018) were associated with an increased risk for development of infection. Monitoring of Ig and complement levels might help to identify the risk of developing infection in OLT.

Use of Everolimus as a Rescue Immunosuppressive Therapy in Liver Transplant Patients With Neoplasms

Everolimus is a new immunosuppressant with antitumoral properties and few side effects, but limited use in liver transplantation. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect on survival and safety of everolimus in post liver transplantation neoplasms in a single center. Ten liver transplant recipients with a posttransplant diagnosis of neoplasm received everolimus during a median of 12.7 (5.5-27.5) months; median survival was 21.3 (7.5-40.5) months. The probability of survival of everolimus group was significantly greater than the observed in a historical cohort of 14 liver recipients with comparable tumors who did not receive everolimus (100%, 90%, 72% vs. 50%, 29%, 14%) at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively (HR=4.6, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-16.4; P=0.008). During everolimus therapy no patients showed rejection. Renal function improved in three patients. Furthermore, severe adverse effects and infections were infrequent. In summary, everolimus seems safe for liver transplant recipients with cancer and may improve short-term survival, but further studies are needed to determine long-term benefits and safety.

Prognostic value of hepatic venous pressure gradient for in-hospital mortality of patients with severe acute alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) has prognostic value in complications and survival of patients with liver cirrhosis. However, the relationship between HVPG and the outcome of acute alcoholic hepatitis (AAH), as well as the specific features of portal hypertension syndrome in this setting, have not been defined.

AIMS

To evaluate the prognostic value of HVPG and to analyse the degree of portal hypertension and hyperdynamic circulation in patients with severe AAH.

METHODS

Early measurements of HVPG were performed in 60 patients with severe AAH, and compared with the haemodynamic findings of 37 and 29 liver transplantation candidates with alcoholic or viral end-stage cirrhosis respectively.

RESULTS

Twenty-three patients (38%) died during hospitalization. Portal hypertension and hyperdynamic circulation were more severe in AAH patients. HVPG was greater in non-survivors [26.9 (7.4) vs. 19.4 (5.2) mmHg, P < 0.001]. Only 4/31 (13%) patients with HVPG <or= 22 mmHg died from the episode of AAH, vs. 19/29 (66%) patients with HVPG > 22 (P < 0.001). Encephalopathy (OR 9.4; CI 1.4-64.8), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score > 25 (OR 7.4; CI 1.4-39.9) and HVPG > 22 mmHg (OR 6.7; CI 1.1-39.9) were independently associated to in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Early measurement of HVPG provides important prognostic information on the short-term outcome of patients with severe AAH. In addition, MELD score also seems to be a strong prognostic factor in these patients.

Antiviral therapy decreases hepatic venous pressure gradient in patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Antiviral therapy (AVT) may improve liver histology in patients with advanced viral hepatitis but its effect on portal pressure remains unknown.

AIM

This study was aimed to evaluate the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in hepatitis C virus infected patients with portal hypertension.

METHODS

Twenty compensated patients with chronic hepatitis C, fibrosis stage 3 or 4 and HVPG > 5 mmHg received PEG-IFN alpha2b plus ribavirin. Every patient underwent liver biopsy and portal pressure measurements before and immediately after AT. Biopsies were evaluated according to METAVIR score.

RESULTS

HVPG significantly dropped in all but one treated patient, with a mean (SD) reduction of 28.2 (12)%[13.8 (5.6) Vs. 10.2 (3.8) mmHg, p = 0.005]. The percentage of HVPG decrease was significantly greater in patients who achieved a virological end of treatment response [26.2 (12.5)% Vs. 12.7 (8.5)%, p = 0.05] and in those with a decrease of at least 2 points in the grade of inflammation [35.7 (4.5)% Vs. 22.1 (9.5)%, p = 0.015]. Nine out of 11 patients with baseline HVPG > or = 12 mmHg showed a decrease greater than 20% (3/11) or under the 12 mmHg threshold (6/11).

CONCLUSIONS

AVT reduces HVPG in compensated patients with advanced hepatitis C (fibrosis stage 3 or 4) and portal hypertension.

Correspondence regarding Ballana et al., “Mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene mutations affect RNA secondary structure and lead to variable penetrance in hearing impairment”

Ballana et al. [E. Ballana, E. Morales, R. Rabionet, B. Montserrat, M. Ventayol, O. Bravo, P. Gasparini, X. Estivill, Mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene mutations affect RNA secondary structure and lead to variable penetrance in hearing impairment, Biochem. Biophys. Res. Commun. 341 (2006) 950-957] detected a T1291C mutation segregating in a Cuban pedigree with hearing impairment. They interpreted it as probably pathogenic, based on family history, RNA conformation prediction and its absence in a control group of 95 Spanish subjects. We screened a sample of 203 deaf subjects and 300 hearing controls (110 "European-Brazilians" and 190 "African-Brazilians") for the mitochondrial mutations A1555G and T1291C. Five deaf subjects had the T1291C substitution, three isolated cases and two familial cases. In the latter, deafness was paternally inherited or segregated with the A1555G mutation. This doesn't support the hypothesis of T1291C mutation being pathogenic. Two "African-Brazilian" controls also had the T1291C substitution. Six of the seven T1291C-carriers (five deaf and two controls) had mitochondrial DNA of African origin, belonging to macrohaplogroup L1/L2. Therefore, these data point to T1291C substitution as most probably an African non-pathogenic polymorphism.