Nucleated Red Blood Cells Are Predictive of In-Hospital Mortality for Pediatric Patients

PURPOSE

We sought to establish whether nucleated red blood cells (NRBCs) are predictive of disposition, morbidity, and mortality for pediatric patients presenting to the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

A single-center retrospective cohort study examining all ED encounters from patients aged younger than 19 years between January 2016 and March 2020, during which a complete blood count was obtained. Univariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression were used to test the presence of NRBCs as an independent predictor of patient-related outcomes.

RESULTS

The prevalence of NRBCs was 8.9% (4195/46,991 patient encounters). Patient with NRBCs were younger (median age 4.58 vs 8.23 years; P < 0.001). Those with NRBCs had higher rates of in-hospital mortality (30/2465 [1.22%] vs 65/21,741 [0.30%]; P < 0.001), sepsis (19% vs 12%; P < 0.001), shock (7% vs 4%; P < 0.001), and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) (0.62% vs 0.09%; P < 0.001). They were more likely to be admitted (59% vs 51%; P < 0.001), have longer median hospital length of stay {1.3 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.22-4.14) vs 0.8 days (IQR, 0.23-2.64); P < 0.001}, and median intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (3.9 [IQR, 1.87-8.72] vs 2.6 days [IQR, 1.27-5.83]; P < 0.001). Multivariable regression revealed presence of NRBCs as an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-3.53; P < 0.001), ICU admission (aOR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.51; P < 0.001), CPR (aOR, 3.83; 95% CI, 2.33-6.30; P < 0.001), and 30-day return to the ED (aOR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.15-1.26; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of NRBCs is an independent predictor for mortality, including in-hospital mortality, ICU admission, CPR, and readmission within 30 days for children presenting to the ED.

Factors Determining Change in Treatment for Ambulatory Children With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: Implications for Monitoring

While care models adapt to the COVID‐19 pandemic with virtual and hybrid visits, clinical factors associated with treatment changes among ambulatory pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) patients are not well characterized. To understand which data critically altered treatment recommendations, we conducted a retrospective review among ambulatory children with Group 1 PAH to determine optimal visit and diagnostic strategies. Changes in management included: unplanned new treatments, dose modifications of vasodilators or diuretics, unscheduled hospitalizations, or changes to activity recommendations, catheterization schedule, or other testing. Factors prompting management changes were classified as symptoms, exam findings, or diagnostic tests. Across 398 ambulatory visits by 48 patients, 38 patients (79%) at 88 visits (22%) required change in management, most commonly in targeted PH medication. Changes were driven by symptoms alone (15%), diagnostic testing alone (47%), exam only (2%), symptoms and exam (2%), combination of testing and symptoms or testing and exam (25%), and other reasons (9%). Patients with World Health Organization functional Class IV (odds ratio [OR] 9.04 vs. Class I, p = 0.014) or Class III (OR 2.08 vs. Class I, p = 0.050) were more likely to undergo change in management. However, among Class I patients, 18% of visits generated changes in management because of test findings. While multiple factors affect management in ambulatory pediatric PH, neither symptoms nor exam was sufficient for identifying patients warranting clinical change in management. Testing accounted for most changes. Thus, in‐person or hybrid surveillance including history, exam, and diagnostic testing remains essential for optimal management of pediatric PAH.

Serial cardiac biomarker assessment in adults with congenital heart disease hospitalized for decompensated heart failure

Background:

Biomarkers are increasingly part of assessing and managing heart failure (HF) in adults with congenital heart disease (CHD).

Objectives:

To understand the response of cardiac biomarkers with therapy for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) and the relationship to prognosis after discharge in adults with CHD.

Design:

A prospective, observational cohort study with serial blood biomarker measurements.

Settings:

Single-center study in the inpatient setting with outpatient follow-up.

Participants:

Adults (≥18 years old) with CHD admitted with ADHF between August 1, 2019, and March 1, 2020.

Exposure:

We measured body mass, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ-12) score, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) at enrollment, discharge, and 1st clinic follow-up visit; soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) was measured at the first two time points.

Measures:

Univariate regression assessed the association between changes in weight, biomarkers, and changes in KCCQ-12 scores, between enrollment and discharge (Δ_{Hospitalization}) and between discharge and 1st clinical follow-up visit (Δ_{Post−discharge}). Wilcoxon rank-sum tests assessed the association between change in biomarkers, KCCQ-12 scores, and the composite outcome of cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for ADHF.

Results:

A total of 26 patients were enrolled. The median age was 51.9 years [IQR: 38.8, 61.2], 13 (54.2%) were women, and median hospital stay was 6.5 days [IQR: 4.0, 15.0] with an associated weight loss of 2.8 kg [IQR −5.1, −1.7]. All three cardiac biomarkers decreased during hospitalization with diuresis while KCCQ-12 scores improved; a greater decrease in sST2 was associated with an improved KCCQ-12 symptom frequency (SF) subdomain score (p = 0.012), but otherwise, there was no significant relationship between biomarkers and KCCQ-12 change. Change in hsCRP and NT-proBNP after discharge was not associated with the composite outcome (n = 8, vs. n = 16 who did not experience the outcome; Δ _{Post-discharge} hsCRP +5.1 vs. −1.0 mg/l, p = 0.061; NT-proBNP +785.0 vs. +130.0 pg/ml, p = 0.220).

Conclusions:

Serial biomarker measurements respond to acute diuresis in adults with CHD hospitalized for ADHF. These results should motivate further research into the use of biomarkers to inform HF therapy in adults with CHD.

Parent-Reported Symptoms and Perceived Effectiveness of Treatment in Children Hospitalized with Advanced Heart Disease

OBJECTIVE

To characterize parent-reported symptom burden and effectiveness of symptom management in children hospitalized with advanced heart disease.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective survey study of 161 parents whose child was admitted to a single institution with advanced heart disease between March 2018 and February 2019 using the Survey about Caring for Children with Heart Disease.

RESULTS

Of the 161 patients, 54% were under 2 years old with a diagnosis of single ventricle physiology (39%), pulmonary hypertension (12%), and other congenital heart disease (28%). Over one-half (56%) of parents reported that their child was experiencing a high degree ("a great deal"/"a lot") of symptoms. The most frequently reported symptoms were pain (68%), fatigue (63%), and breathing difficulties (60%). Of the symptoms that were treated, parents perceived successful treatment to be least likely for their child's sleep disturbance (24%), depression (29%), and fatigue (35%). Parents who reported their child's functional status as New York Heart Association class III/IV were more likely to report that their child was experiencing "a great deal" of symptoms, compared with those who reported class I/II (51% vs 19%, P < .001). Parents who reported their child was experiencing a high degree of suffering from fatigue were also more likely to report a high symptom burden (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Parents of children with advanced heart disease reported high symptom burden with a broad spectrum of symptoms. Parents reported fatigue and psychiatric symptoms frequently and rarely reported treatment as successful. Parents' view of their child's symptom burden was concordant with their perception of their child's functional status.

A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Optimizing Capacity in a High-Volume Congenital Heart Pediatric Surgical Center

Importance

Elective surgeries are primarily scheduled according to surgeon availability with less consideration of patients' postoperative cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) length of stay. Furthermore, the CICU census can exhibit a high rate of variation in which the CICU is operating at over-capacity, resulting in admission delays and cancellations; or under-capacity, resulting in underutilized labor and overhead expenditures.

Objective

To identify strategies to reduce variation in CICU occupancy levels and avoid late patient surgery cancellation.

Design

Monte Carlo simulation study of the daily and weekly CICU census at Boston Children's Hospital Heart Center. Data on all surgical admissions to and discharges from the CICU at Boston Children's Hospital between September 1, 2009 and November 2019 were included to obtain the distribution of length of stay for the simulation study. The available data allows us to model realistic length of stay samples that include short and extended lengths of stay.

Main Outcomes

Annual number of patient surgical cancellations and change in average daily census.

Results

We demonstrate that the models of strategic scheduling would result in up to 57% reduction in patient surgical cancellations, increase the historically low Monday census and decrease the historically higher late-mid-week (Wednesday and Thursday) censuses in our center.

Conclusions and Relevance

Use of strategic scheduling may improve surgical capacity and reduce the number of annual cancellations. The reduction of peaks and valleys in the weekly census corresponds to a reduction of underutilization and overutilization of the system.

Combining tumour response and progression free survival as surrogate endpoints for overall survival in advanced colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Progression free survival (PFS) and tumour response (TR) have been investigated as surrogate endpoints for overall survival (OS) in advanced colorectal cancer (aCRC), however their validity has been shown to be suboptimal. In recent years, meta-analytic methods allowing for use of multiple surrogate endpoints jointly have been proposed. Our aim was to assess if PFS and TR used jointly as surrogate endpoints to OS improve their predictive value.

METHODS

Data were obtained from a systematic review of randomised controlled trials investigating effectiveness of pharmacological therapies in aCRC, including systemic chemotherapies, anti-epidermal growth factor receptor therapies and anti-angiogenic agents. Multivariate meta-analysis was used to model the association patterns between treatment effects on the surrogate endpoints (TR, PFS) and the final outcome (OS).

RESULTS

Analysis of 33 trials reporting treatment effects on all three outcomes showed reasonably strong association between treatment effects on PFS and OS, however the association parameters were obtained with a large uncertainty. A weak surrogate relationship was noted between the treatment effects on TR and OS. Modelling the two surrogate endpoints, TR and PFS, jointly as predictors of treatment effect on OS gave no marked improvement to surrogate association patterns. Modest improvement in the precision of the predicted treatment effects on the final outcome was noted in studies investigating anti-angiogenic therapy, however it was likely due to chance.

CONCLUSION

The joint use of two surrogate endpoints did not lead to marked improvement in the association between treatment effects on surrogate and final endpoints in advanced colorectal cancer.

Is the first urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) in women with suspected preeclampsia a prognostic factor for maternal and neonatal adverse outcome? A retrospective cohort study

Introduction

The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of the first urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) for adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes and how it relates to other prognostic factors.

Material and methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study from December 2009 to February 2012 with analysis of demographic, clinical and biochemical data from two obstetric day assessment units in hospitals in Southeast Scotland. We included 717 pregnant women, with singleton pregnancies after 20 weeks’ gestation, referred for evaluation of suspected preeclampsia and having their first ACR performed. The ability of ACR to predict future outcomes was assessed in both univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. The latter assessed its prognostic value independent of (adjusting for) existing prognostic factors. Primary outcome measures were maternal and neonatal composite adverse outcomes, and a secondary outcome was gestation at delivery.

Results

In all, 204 women (28.5%) experienced a composite adverse maternal outcome and 146 women (20.4%) experienced a composite adverse neonatal outcome. Multivariate analysis of log‐transformed ACR demonstrated that a 1‐unit increase in log ACR is associated with an increased odds of adverse maternal [odds ratio 1.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45–1.80] and adverse neonatal (odds ratio 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.29) composite outcomes, and with reduced gestational age at delivery (coefficient: −0.46, 95% CI −0.54 to −0.38).

Conclusions

ACR is an independent prognostic factor for maternal and neonatal adverse outcomes in suspected preeclampsia. ACR may be useful to inform risk predictions within a prognostic model.

Multivariate meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies with multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement

A prognostic factor is any measure that is associated with the risk of future health outcomes in those with existing disease. Often, the prognostic ability of a factor is evaluated in multiple studies. However, meta-analysis is difficult because primary studies often use different methods of measurement and/or different cut-points to dichotomise continuous factors into 'high' and 'low' groups; selective reporting is also common. We illustrate how multivariate random effects meta-analysis models can accommodate multiple prognostic effect estimates from the same study, relating to multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement. The models account for within-study and between-study correlations, which utilises more information and reduces the impact of unreported cut-points and/or measurement methods in some studies. The applicability of the approach is improved with individual participant data and by assuming a functional relationship between prognostic effect and cut-point to reduce the number of unknown parameters. The models provide important inferential results for each cut-point and method of measurement, including the summary prognostic effect, the between-study variance and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in new populations. Two applications are presented. The first reveals that, in a multivariate meta-analysis using published results, the Apgar score is prognostic of neonatal mortality but effect sizes are smaller at most cut-points than previously thought. In the second, a multivariate meta-analysis of two methods of measurement provides weak evidence that microvessel density is prognostic of mortality in lung cancer, even when individual participant data are available so that a continuous prognostic trend is examined (rather than cut-points).