Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Performance of cardiovascular risk prediction equations in Indigenous Australians

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equations in Indigenous Australians.

METHODS

We conducted an individual participant meta-analysis using longitudinal data of 3618 Indigenous Australians (55% women) aged 30-74 years without CVD from population-based cohorts of the Cardiovascular Risk in IndigenouS People(CRISP) consortium. Predicted risk was calculated using: 1991 and 2008 Framingham Heart Study (FHS), the Pooled Cohorts (PC), GloboRisk and the Central Australian Rural Practitioners Association (CARPA) modification of the FHS equation. Calibration, discrimination and diagnostic accuracy were evaluated. Risks were calculated with and without the use of clinical criteria to identify high-risk individuals.

RESULTS

When applied without clinical criteria, all equations, except the CARPA-adjusted FHS, underestimated CVD risk (range of percentage difference between observed and predicted CVD risks: -55% to -14%), with underestimation greater in women (-63% to -13%) than men (-47% to -18%) and in younger age groups. Discrimination ranged from 0.66 to 0.72. The CARPA-adjusted FHS equation showed good calibration but overestimated risk in younger people, those without diabetes and those not at high clinical risk. When clinical criteria were used with risk equations, the CARPA-adjusted FHS algorithm scored 64% of those who had CVD events as high risk; corresponding figures for the 1991-FHS were 58% and were 87% for the PC equation for non-Hispanic whites. However, specificity fell.

CONCLUSION

The CARPA-adjusted FHS CVD risk equation and clinical criteria performed the best, achieving higher combined sensitivity and specificity than other equations. However, future research should investigate whether modifications to this algorithm combination might lead to improved risk prediction.

Birth outcomes in women with gestational diabetes managed by lifestyle modification alone: The PANDORA study

AIMS

To assess outcomes of women in the Pregnancy and Neonatal Diabetes Outcomes in Remote Australia (PANDORA) cohort with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) managed by lifestyle modification compared with women without hyperglycaemia in pregnancy.

METHODS

Indigenous (n = 97) and Europid (n = 113) women managed by lifestyle modification were compared to women without hyperglycaemia (n = 235). Multivariate linear and logistic regressions assessed whether GDM-lifestyle women had poorer outcomes compared to women without hyperglycaemia.

RESULTS

Women with GDM-lifestyle had higher body mass index and lower gestational weight gain than women without hyperglycaemia. On univariate analysis, gestational age at delivery was lower and induction rates were higher in women with GDM-lifestyle than without hyperglycaemia. On multivariable regression, GDM-lifestyle was associated with lower gestational age at delivery (by 0.73 weeks), lower birthweight z-score (by 0.26, p = 0.007), lower likelihood of large for gestational age (LGA) [OR (95% CI): 0.55 (0.28, 1.02), p = 0.059], and greater likelihood of labour induction [2.34 (1.49, 3.66), p < 0.001] than women without hyperglycaemia.

CONCLUSION

Women with GDM managed by lifestyle modification had higher induction rates and their offspring had lower birthweight z-scores, with a trend to lower LGA than those without hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. Further studies are indicated to explore reasons for higher induction rates.

Diabetes care in remote Australia: the antenatal, postpartum and inter-pregnancy period

BACKGROUND

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women experience high rates of diabetes in pregnancy (DIP), contributing to health risks for mother and infant, and the intergenerational cycle of diabetes. By enhancing diabetes management during pregnancy, postpartum and the interval between pregnancies, the DIP Partnership aims to improve health outcomes and reduce risks early in the life-course. We describe a mixed methods formative study of health professional's perspectives of antenatal and post-partum diabetes screening and management, including enablers and barriers to care.

METHODS

Health professionals involved in providing diabetes care in pregnancy, from a range of health services across the Northern Territory, completed the survey (n = 82) and/or took part in interviews and/or focus groups (n = 62).

RESULTS

Qualitative findings highlighted factors influencing the delivery of care as reported by health professionals, including: whose responsibility it is, access to care, the baby is the focus and pre-conception care. The main challenges were related to: disjointed systems and confusion around whose role it is to provide follow-up care beyond six weeks post-partum. Quantitative findings indicated that the majority of health professionals reported confidence in their own skills to manage women in the antenatal period (62%, 40/79) and slightly lower rates of confidence in the postpartum interval (57%, 33/58).

CONCLUSION

These findings regarding whose role it is to provide postpartum care, along with opportunities to improve communication pathways and follow up care have informed the design of a complex health intervention to improve health systems and the provision of DIP related care.

Associations of mortality and cardiovascular disease risks with diabetes and albuminuria in urban Indigenous Australians: the DRUID follow-up study

AIM

To assess the relationships of diabetes and albuminuria with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease outcomes in a population without prior cardiovascular disease using data from the Darwin Region Urban Indigenous Diabetes (DRUID) study.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 706 participants (aged 15-81 years, 68% women) without prior cardiovascular disease who underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test. Deaths and fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular disease were determined over 7 years, and hazard ratios with 95% CIs and population attributable risks were estimated for baseline glycaemia and albuminuria.

RESULTS

Compared with normoglycaemia and after adjustment for age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and smoking, known diabetes was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.8 (95% CI 1.5-14.7) for all-cause mortality and 5.6 (95% CI 2.1-15.2) for cardiovascular disease. Compared with normoalbuminuria, the respective adjusted risks for macroalbuminuria were 10.9 (95% CI 3.7-32.1) and 3.9 (95% CI 1.4-10.8). The Adjusted all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease estimated population attributable risks for diabetes were 27% and 32%, and for albuminuria they were 32% and 21%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study population, the burden of mortality and cardiovascular disease was largely driven by diabetes and albuminuria. This finding on the influence of diabetes and albuminuria is consistent with reports in other high-risk Indigenous populations and should be better reflected in risk scores and intervention programmes.

Television viewing time and mortality: the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab)

BACKGROUND

Television viewing time, the predominant leisure-time sedentary behavior, is associated with biomarkers of cardiometabolic risk, but its relationship with mortality has not been studied. We examined the associations of prolonged television viewing time with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and non-CVD/noncancer mortality in Australian adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Television viewing time in relation to subsequent all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality (median follow-up, 6.6 years) was examined among 8800 adults > or =25 years of age in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab). During 58 087 person-years of follow-up, there were 284 deaths (87 CVD deaths, 125 cancer deaths). After adjustment for age, sex, waist circumference, and exercise, the hazard ratios for each 1-hour increment in television viewing time per day were 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.20) for all-cause mortality, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.03 to 1.35) for CVD mortality, and 1.09 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.23) for cancer mortality. Compared with a television viewing time of <2 h/d, the fully adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.13 (95% CI, 0.87 to 1.36) for > or =2 to <4 h/d and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.04 to 2.05) for > or =4 h/d. For CVD mortality, corresponding hazard ratios were 1.19 (95% CI, 0.72 to 1.99) and 1.80 (95% CI, 1.00 to 3.25). The associations with both cancer mortality and non-CVD/noncancer mortality were not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Television viewing time was associated with increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. In addition to the promotion of exercise, chronic disease prevention strategies could focus on reducing sitting time, particularly prolonged television viewing.

HOMA insulin sensitivity index and the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease events in the general population: the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab) study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We assessed whether the relationships between insulin sensitivity and all-cause mortality as well as fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are independent of elevated blood glucose, high blood pressure, dyslipidaemia and body composition in individuals without diagnosed diabetes.

METHODS

Between 1999 and 2000, baseline fasting insulin, glucose and lipids, 2 h plasma glucose, HbA(1c), anthropometrics, blood pressure, medication use, smoking and history of CVD were collected from 8,533 adults aged >35 years from the population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Insulin sensitivity was estimated by HOMA of insulin sensitivity (HOMA-%S). Deaths and fatal or non-fatal CVD events were ascertained through linkage to the National Death Index and medical records adjudication.

RESULTS

After a median of 5.0 years there were 277 deaths and 225 CVD events. HOMA-%S was not associated with all-cause mortality. Compared with the most insulin-sensitive quintile, the combined fatal or non-fatal CVD HR (95% CI) for quintiles of decreasing HOMA-%S were 1.1 (0.6-1.9), 1.4 (0.9-2.3), 1.6 (1.0-2.5) and 2.0 (1.3-3.1), adjusting for age and sex. Smoking, CVD history, hypertension, lipid-lowering medication, total cholesterol and waist-to-hip ratio moderately attenuated this relationship. However, the association was rendered non-significant by adding HDL. Fasting plasma glucose, but not HOMA-%S significantly improved the prediction of CVD, beyond that seen with other risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In this cohort, HOMA-%S showed no association with all-cause mortality and only a modest association with CVD events, largely explained by its association with HDL. Fasting plasma glucose was a better predictor of CVD than HOMA-%S.

Continuous relationships between non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and both cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Hyperglycaemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in individuals without diabetes. We investigated: (1) whether the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality extended continuously throughout the range of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h plasma glucose (2hPG) and HbA(1c) values; and (2) the ability of these measures to improve risk prediction for mortality.

METHODS

Data on 10,026 people aged >or=25 years without diagnosed diabetes were obtained from the population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Between 1999 and 2000, FPG, 2hPG and HbA(1c) were assessed and all-cause (332 deaths) and CVD (88 deaths) mortality were obtained after 7 years.

RESULTS

Both 2hPG and HbA(1c) exhibited linear relationships with all-cause and CVD mortality, whereas FPG showed J-shaped relationships. The adjusted HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality per SD increase was 1.2 (1.1-1.3) for 2hPG and 1.1 (1.0-1.2) for HbA(1c). The HR for FPG <5.1 mmol/l (per SD decrease) was 2.0 (1.3-3.0); for FPG >or=5.1 mmol/l (per SD increase) the HR was 1.1 (1.0-1.2). Corresponding HRs for CVD mortality were 1.2 (1.0-1.4), 1.2 (1.0-1.3), 4.0 (2.1-7.6) and 1.3 (1.1-1.4). The discriminative ability of each measure was similar; no measure substantially improved individual risk identification over traditional risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In individuals without diagnosed diabetes, 2hPG and FPG, but not HbA(1c) were significant predictors of all-cause mortality, whereas all measures were significant predictors of CVD mortality. However, these glucose measures did not substantially improve individual risk identification.

Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

With incidence rates for diabetes increasing rapidly worldwide, estimates of the magnitude of the impact on population health are required. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes, the number of years lived free of, and the number of years lived with diabetes for the Australian adult population from the year 2000, and to project prevalence of diabetes to the year 2025.

METHODS

Multi-state life-tables were constructed to simulate the progress of a cohort of 25-year-old Australians. National mortality rates were combined with incidence rates of diabetes and the RR of mortality in people with diabetes derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (a national, population-based study of 11,247 adults aged >or=25 years).

RESULTS

If the rates of mortality and diabetes incidence observed over the period 2000-2005 continue, 38.0% (95% uncertainty interval 36.6-38.9) of 25-year-olds would be expected to develop diabetes at some time throughout their life. On average, a 25-year-old Australian will live a further 56 years, 48 of these free of diabetes. On average, a 45-year-old person with diabetes can expect to live 6 years less than a person free of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2000 to 11.4% by 2025.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

If we maintain current diabetes incidence rates, more than a third of individuals will develop diabetes within their lifetime and in Australia there will an additional 1 million cases of diabetes by the year 2025.