The Future of Decisions From Experience: Connecting Real-World Decision Problems to Cognitive Processes

In many important real-world decision domains, such as finance, the environment, and health, behavior is strongly influenced by experience. Renewed interest in studying this influence led to important advancements in the understanding of these decisions from experience (DfE) in the last 20 years. Building on this literature, we suggest ways the standard experimental design should be extended to better approach important real-world DfE. These extensions include, for example, introducing more complex choice situations, delaying feedback, and including social interactions. When acting upon experiences in these richer and more complicated environments, extensive cognitive processes go into making a decision. Therefore, we argue for integrating cognitive processes more explicitly into experimental research in DfE. These cognitive processes include attention to and perception of numeric and nonnumeric experiences, the influence of episodic and semantic memory, and the mental models involved in learning processes. Understanding these basic cognitive processes can advance the modeling, understanding and prediction of DfE in the laboratory and in the real world. We highlight the potential of experimental research in DfE for theory integration across the behavioral, decision, and cognitive sciences. Furthermore, this research could lead to new methodology that better informs decision-making and policy interventions.

Fenneman et al.'s (2022) review of formal impulsivity models: Implications for theory and measures of impulsivity

In Fenneman et al.'s (2022) review of theories and integrated impulsivity model, the authors distinguish between information impulsivity (i.e., acting without considering consequences) and temporal impulsivity (i.e., the tendency to pick sooner outcomes over later ones). The authors find that both types of impulsivity can be adaptive in different contexts. For example, when individuals experience scarcity of resources or when they are close to a minimum level of reserves (critical threshold). In this commentary, we extend their findings to a discussion about the measurement of impulsivity. We argue that a common method for measuring temporal impulsivity in which people make decisions between outcomes that are spaced out in time (intertemporal choice tasks), puts individuals in a specific context that is unlikely to generalize well to other situations. Furthermore, trait measures of impulsivity may only be modestly informative about future impulsive behavior because they largely abstract away from important context. To address these issues, we advocate for the development of dynamic measures of the two types of impulsivity. We argue that measuring temporal impulsivity in naturalistic contexts with varying environmental and state parameters could provide insights into whether individuals (i.e., humans and nonhuman animals) react to environmental changes adaptively, while trait measures of impulsivity more generally should collect and provide more contextual information. Dynamic measurement of different types of impulsivity will also allow for more discussion about adaptive impulsive responses in different contexts, which could help combat the stigmatization of various disorders associated with impulsivity. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

A systematic investigation into the reliability of inter-temporal choice model parameters

Decades of work have been dedicated to developing and testing models that characterize how people make inter-temporal choices. Although parameter estimates from these models are often interpreted as indices of latent components of the choice process, little work has been done to examine their reliability. This is problematic because estimation error can bias conclusions that are drawn from these parameter estimates. We examine the reliability of parameter estimates from 11 prominent models of inter-temporal choice by (a) fitting each model to data from three previous experiments with designs representative of those typically used to study inter-temporal choice, (b) examining the consistency of parameters estimated for the same person based on different choice sets, and (c) conducting a parameter recovery analysis. We find generally low correlations between parameters estimated for the same person from the different choice sets. Moreover, parameter recovery varies considerably between models and the experimental designs upon which parameter estimates are based. We conclude that many parameter estimates reported in previous research are likely unreliable and provide recommendations on how to enhance the reliability of inter-temporal choice models for measurement purposes.

How to use a multicriteria comparison procedure to improve modeling competitions: A comment on Erev et al. (2017)

Modeling competitions are a promising method for advancing psychological science. In this commentary to Erev et al. (Psychological Review, 2017, 124, p. 369), we highlight how this promise could be enhanced through modifying competition structures to produce insights more directly in line with the goals of promoting psychological knowledge. We argue that a single criterion on which models is compared limits the diversity of models entered into competitions, restricting the number and type of insights that can be gained consequently. We propose an alternative competition structure with multiple evaluative criteria and outline a quantitative selection method for choosing a winner. Our proposed competition structure has the advantages of (a) increasing the diversity of models entered, (b) incentivizing desirable qualities of models, (c) disambiguating competition winners, and (d) enhancing the impact and possible insights gained from competitions, all these while allowing flexibility for competition organizers to emphasize specific qualities of models. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

The Role of Personal Experience and Prior Beliefs in Shaping Climate Change Perceptions: A Narrative Review

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and flooding. This is the primary way many individuals experience climate change, which has led researchers to investigate the influence of personal experience on climate change concern and action. However, existing evidence is still limited and in some cases contradictory. At the same time, behavioral decision research has highlighted the importance of pre-existing values and beliefs in shaping how individuals experience changes in environmental conditions. This is in line with theories of motivated reasoning, which suggest that people interpret and process information in a biased manner to maintain their prior beliefs. Yet, the evidence for directional motivated reasoning in the context of climate change beliefs has recently been questioned. In the current paper, we critically review the literature on the interrelationships between personal experience of local weather anomalies, extreme weather events and climate change beliefs. Overall, our review shows that there is some evidence that local warming can generate climate change concern, but the capacity for personal experience to promote action may rely upon the experience first being attributed to climate change. Rare extreme weather events will likely have limited impact on judgments and decisions unless they have occurred recently. However, even recent events may have limited impact among individuals who hold strong pre-existing beliefs rejecting the reality of climate change. We identify limitations of existing research and suggest directions for future work.

An Attempt to Correct Erroneous Ideas Among Teacher Education Students: The Effectiveness of Refutation Texts

There is sound evidence about the high prevalence of misconceptions about education among pre-service teachers. This trend continues after students complete the degree in education and once they are in the exercise of their profession. In fact, several studies show that these misconceptions are widespread among in-service teachers. Erroneous ideas about education may divert material and human resources to poor grounded methods and teaching tools, compromising the quality of education. Strategies to debunk misconceptions among future teachers, who may not have a firm position about many educational issues, might contribute to reversing this trend. The main goal of the present study was to assess the efficacy of refutation texts in the correction of misconceptions among pre-service teachers. As in previous studies with in-service teachers, refutation texts were effective in reducing participants’ endorsement of misconceptions. But this effect was short-lived and did not affect participants’ intention to use educational methods that are based on the misconceptions addressed in the refutation texts.

Choice rates are independent from perceived patterns (when patterns are not obvious): A reply to Plonsky and Teodorescu

In Ashby, Konstantinidis, and Yechiam (2017) we argued that the variance in people's choices in decisions from experience stems from uncertainty about preferences. This was confirmed by high correlations between the variance in experiential choices and subsequent one-shot policy decisions: both showing considerable diversification. In the present paper we address a comment regarding our paper by Plonsky and Teodorescu (2020). These authors suggested that variance in experiential choices is driven by responses to perceived patterns in prior outcomes (rather than individuals' preferences), and that these responses can also drive subsequent policy decisions. This was supported by an apparent "wavy recency" effect in our data indicatory of responses to patterns, and by an experiment showing that outcome patterns affected subsequent policy decisions. We demonstrate that our study results do not in fact show a significant wavy recency. We do find positive recency but it is very poorly correlated with the overall choice rates. Hence, we contend that the variance in choice rates mostly reflects one's preferences when there are no obvious patterns. Moreover, we argue that because Plonsky and Teodorescu's experimental manipulation was confounded with the frequency of relatively positive/negative outcomes, their results do not conclusively show an effect of response to patterns on subsequent policies.

The effectiveness of refutation texts to correct misconceptions among educators

Teachers around the world hold a considerable number of misconceptions about education. Consequently, schools can become epicenters for dubious practices that might jeopardize the quality of teaching and negatively influence students' wellbeing. The main objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of refutation texts in the correction of erroneous ideas among in-service teachers. The results of Experiment 1 indicate that refutation texts can be an effective means to correct false ideas among educators, even for strongly endorsed misconceptions. However, the results of Experiment 2 suggest that these effects may be short-lived. Furthermore, attempts to correct misconceptions seemed to have no beneficial effect on teachers' intention to implement educational practices that are based on those erroneous beliefs. The implications of these results for the training of preservice and in-service teachers are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Simultaneous underweighting and overestimation of rare events: Unpacking a paradox

We investigated previous findings suggesting a paradoxical inconsistency of people's beliefs and choices: When making decisions under uncertainty, people seem to both overestimate the probability of rare events in their judgments and underweight the probability of the same rare events in their choices. In our reexamination, we found that people's beliefs are consistent with their decisions, but they do not necessarily correspond with the environment. Both overestimation and underweighting of the rare event seemed to result from (most, but not all) participants' mistaken belief that they can infer and exploit sequential patterns in a static environment. In addition, we found that such inaccurate representations can be improved through incentives. Finally, detailed analysis suggested a mixture of individual-level response patterns, which can give rise to an erroneous interpretation of group-level patterns. Our results offer an explanation for why beliefs and decisions can appear contradictory and present challenges to some current models of decisions under uncertainty. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Task complexity moderates the influence of descriptions in decisions from experience

Decisions-makers often have access to a combination of descriptive and experiential information, but limited research so far has explored decisions made using both. Three experiments explore the relationship between task complexity and the influence of descriptions. We show that in simple experience-based decision-making tasks, providing congruent descriptions has little influence on task performance in comparison to experience alone without descriptions, since learning via experience is relatively easy. In more complex tasks, which are slower and more demanding to learn experientially, descriptions have stronger influence and help participants identify their preferred choices. However, when the task gets too complex to be concisely described, the influence of descriptions is reduced hence showing a non-monotonic pattern of influence of descriptions according to task complexity. We also propose a cognitive model that incorporates descriptive information into the traditional reinforcement learning framework, with the impact of descriptions moderated by task complexity. This model fits the observed behavior better than previous models and replicates the observed non-monotonic relationship between impact of descriptions and task complexity. This research has implications for the development of effective warning labels that rely on simple descriptive information to trigger safer behavior in complex environments.

Choice in experiential learning: True preferences or experimental artifacts?

The rate of selecting different options in the decisions-from-feedback paradigm is commonly used to measure preferences resulting from experiential learning. While convergence to a single option increases with experience, some variance in choice remains even when options are static and offer fixed rewards. Employing a decisions-from-feedback paradigm followed by a policy-setting task, we examined whether the observed variance in choice is driven by factors related to the paradigm itself: Continued exploration (e.g., believing options are non-stationary) or exploitation of perceived outcome patterns (i.e., a belief that sequential choices are not independent). Across two studies, participants showed variance in their choices, which was related (i.e., proportional) to the policies they set. In addition, in Study 2, participants' reported under-confidence was associated with the amount of choice variance in later choices and policies. These results suggest that variance in choice is better explained by participants lacking confidence in knowing which option is better, rather than methodological artifacts (i.e., exploration or failures to recognize outcome independence). As such, the current studies provide evidence for the decisions-from-feedback paradigm's validity as a behavioral research method for assessing learned preferences.

Don't bet on it! Wagering as a measure of awareness in decision making under uncertainty

Can our decisions be guided by unconscious or implicit influences? According to the somatic marker hypothesis, emotion-based signals can guide our decisions in uncertain environments outside awareness. Postdecision wagering, in which participants make wagers on the outcomes of their decisions, has been recently proposed as an objective and sensitive measure of conscious content. In 5 experiments we employed variations of a classic decision-making assessment, the Iowa Gambling Task, in combination with wagering in order to investigate the role played by unconscious influences. We examined the validity of postdecision wagering by comparing it with alternative measures of conscious knowledge, specifically confidence ratings and quantitative questions. Consistent with a putative role for unconscious influences, in Experiments 2 and 3 we observed a lag between choice accuracy and the onset of advantageous wagering. However, the lag was eliminated by a change in the wagering payoff matrix (Experiment 2) and by a switch from a binary wager response to either a binary or a 4-point confidence response (Experiment 3), and wagering underestimated awareness compared to explicit quantitative questions (Experiments 1 and 4). Our results demonstrate the insensitivity of postdecision wagering as a direct measure of conscious knowledge and challenge the claim that implicit processes influence decision making under uncertainty.

Affective medicine. A review of affective computing efforts in medical informatics

BACKGROUND

Affective computing (AC) is concerned with emotional interactions performed with and through computers. It is defined as "computing that relates to, arises from, or deliberately influences emotions". AC enables investigation and understanding of the relation between human emotions and health as well as application of assistive and useful technologies in the medical domain.

OBJECTIVES

1) To review the general state of the art in AC and its applications in medicine, and 2) to establish synergies between the research communities of AC and medical informatics.

METHODS

Aspects related to the human affective state as a determinant of the human health are discussed, coupled with an illustration of significant AC research and related literature output. Moreover, affective communication channels are described and their range of application fields is explored through illustrative examples.

RESULTS

The presented conferences, European research projects and research publications illustrate the recent increase of interest in the AC area by the medical community. Tele-home healthcare, AmI, ubiquitous monitoring, e-learning and virtual communities with emotionally expressive characters for elderly or impaired people are few areas where the potential of AC has been realized and applications have emerged.

CONCLUSIONS

A number of gaps can potentially be overcome through the synergy of AC and medical informatics. The application of AC technologies parallels the advancement of the existing state of the art and the introduction of new methods. The amount of work and projects reviewed in this paper witness an ambitious and optimistic synergetic future of the affective medicine field.

Effect of nonharmonic forcing on bluff-body vortex dynamics

Forced nonharmonic excitation of the two-dimensional flow about a circular cylinder is studied by numerical simulations at mean Reynolds numbers of 180 and 150. Moderate deviations of the forced inflow velocity waveform from a pure harmonic generate different modes of phase-locked vortex formation in the cylinder wake, involving combinations of single and/or pairs of vortices for the same forcing frequency and peak-to-peak amplitude. The dynamical response of the wake oscillator is studied by employing phase portraits of the drag and lift coefficients that display modified limit-cycle behavior due to nonharmonic excitation. It is further shown that changing solely the velocity waveform can incite transition from a quasiperiodic state to a phase-locked state. The findings demonstrate that the wake oscillator is admissible to an infinite number of phase-locked and/or modulated states characterized by a single point on the frequency-amplitude plane.

Shockwave Therapy as First-Line Treatment for Peyronie's Disease: A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

To assess in a prospective study whether shockwave therapy (SWT) is effective as a first-line treatment for Peyronie's disease.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Forty patients with previously untreated Peyronie's disease underwent SWT with the Epos overhead-module device (Dornier). The pain severity (visual analog pain scale [VAS] 0-5), the degree of penile angulation after vasoactive drug injection, plaque size by ultrasound measurement, and erectile dysfunction (IIEF score) were assessed prior to and after treatment. Of the 40 patients, 7 underwent two sessions and the rest three sessions. The time interval between treatments was 2 weeks. At a power level of 2 to 5 (mean 4), a maximum of 3000 shockwaves per plaque per treatment were applied. The mean follow-up was 12 months.

RESULTS

All patients completed the protocol. The tolerance and safety were excellent. Of the 25 patients with pain on erection, 12 (48%) noticed relief after the first session, while 9 more were pain free at the end of the treatment (VAS reduction 2.8; P<0.0001, and 2; P<0.001, respectively). For 25 patients (62.5%), an improvement in penile angulation>20 degrees was observed, with a mean reduction of 35 degrees (range 20 degrees-60 degrees ) (P<0.001). No significant change in plaque size was noted. Among 28 patients with erectile dysfunction, 18 (64.2%) had a marked increase in erection quality (IIEF score change: +4 for 10 patients, +6 for 4 patients, +8 for 2 patients, +9 for 2 patients).

CONCLUSION

Our results support SWT as an effective and safe first-line treatment for Peyronie's disease.

Natural killer (NK) cell assay within bladder mucosa of patients bearing transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) after interferon (IFN) therapy: an immunohistochemical and ultrastructural study

The authors studied the number and the ultrastructural evidence of NK cell activation in the non-involved urothelium in patients with transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urinary bladder, before and after transurethral resection (TUR) and interferon (IFN) therapy. Eight male patients, free of recurrence 1 year after TUR and IFN-a2b therapy, were studied. Each patient received 22 instillations of 50MU of IFN-a2b over a period of 1 year. Two specimens from the non-involved urothelium, one adjacent to and another away from the tumour, were obtained before and after therapy, for immunohistochemical and ultrastructural studies. The number of NK cells was evaluated immunohistochemically in paraffin sections with the CD57 monoclonal antibody, and their activation was detected by routine electron microscopy processing. Before treatment, few NK cells were randomly found in the lamina propria. At the end of therapy, however, their number increased and NK cells were found to infiltrate the urothelium, a finding that was not observed before treatment. The number of NK cells did not correlate with the degree of the inflammatory infiltrate of the mucosa. Moreover, the ultrastructural study revealed activation of NK cells with enhanced cytolytic activity. IFN therapy increases the number and promotes the activation of NK cells within the bladder mucosa. This finding could be of clinical significance in the prevention of tumour recurrence, given that NK cells enhance the immunological defense mechanisms of the bladder.

Ultrastructural study of the urothelial lysosomal system in patients with transitional cell carcinoma after transurethral resection and interferon therapy

The epithelial cells of human bladder urothelium contain a prominent lysosomal system on the surface layer which involves autophagic, phagocytotic and excretory processes. The noninvolved urothelium of tumor-bearing patients, however, does not contain this well-developed lysosomal system. Interferon restores the differentiation of the urothelium. Its action on the lysosomal system, however, has not been investigated. We studied ultrastructurally the noninvolved urothelium of eight patients with transitional cell carcinoma who after transurethral resection and intravesicular interferon instillations for 2 years did not develop recurrence. We noted that the number and size of lysosomes increased, being most numerous within the cells of the surface layer. Characteristic large lysosomes with the morphology of multivesicular bodies were also evident. These multivesicular bodies were almost entirely filled with small vesicles containing a dense core. Our findings show that after 2 years of interferon administration a re-appearance of a highly developed lysosomal system of the noninvolved urothelium was evident. This restoration to the normal morphology with reappearance of the lysosomal system, which could be partly attributed to interferon therapy, may be of clinical significance for prevention of tumor recurrence.

[Results of combined surgical and radiotherapeutic treatment of the carcinoma of the urinary bladder of stage P2/P3]

The authors studied the survival rates of the P2 and P3 patients within a group of 287 patients suffering from carcinomas of the urinary bladder who had been treated by urologic operation and radiotherapy. A differentiation was made between the surgical methods transurethral resection (TUR), bladder wall resection and cystectomy. P2 patients presented significantly higher three-year survival rates after bladder wall resection or cystectomy (10/17) than after TUR (7/23). In stage P3, no differences were found with regard to the surgical method. The results are discussed and compared to those communicated in literature.

[Metastasis to the lymph nodes from an occult primary tumor: aspects of diagnostics and therapy (author's transl)]

Sixty-one patients with lymph node metastases and occult primary tumor are reported. The patients were analyzed with respect to age and sex, as well as to the histologic diagnosis of the lymph nodes examined. In 24 of these patients, the primary tumor was found later; in 12 of these, not until autopsy. Site and histologic type of the lymph node metastases permit conclusions about the primary tumor. Treatment of the metastasis by surgery or irradiation ist indicated in order to hinder expansion and, in cases of late discovery of primary tumor, to take advantage of the remaining chances for a cure. The prognosis is unfavorable when the primary tumor remains undiscovered. In our patient group, the average survival time following confirmation of a lymph node metastasis was only 25 months. Lymph node metastases in the neck region are a special case. Here, the occult primary tumor ist sometimes cured in connection with surgery and/or irradiation of the cervical region.

[Cobalt teletherapy of the carcinoma of the urinary bladder (author's transl)]

A three-year survival rate of 40% of a group of 287 patients was achieved by a standardized Co-60 teletherapy. This survival rate and the radiogenic late effects observed over a ten-year period are compared with results communicated in literature. Important prognostic factors were the findings of a pretherapeutic urogram, the tumor localization, histologic findings, the stade and the surgical proceeding. In this connexion, the W.H.O. classification containing the stades of penetration and the degrees of malignity proved to be valuable. Taking into consideration the own results and those found in literature, the authors propose a therapy depending on the stade and based on modern diagnostic methods and a reliable histologic classification.