Childhood Transitions Between Weight Status Categories: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions targeting childhood excess weight requires estimates of the hazards of transitioning between weight status categories. Current estimates are based on studies characterized by insufficient sample sizes, a lack of national representativeness, and untested assumptions.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to (1) estimate transition probabilities and hazard ratios for transitioning between childhood weight status categories, (2) test the validity of the underlying assumption in the literature that transitions between childhood bodyweight categories are time-homogeneous, (3) account for complex sampling procedures when deriving nationally representative transition estimates, and (4) explore the impact of child, maternal, and sociodemographic characteristics.

METHODS

We applied a multistate transition modeling approach accounting for complex survey design to UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) data to predict transition probabilities and hazard ratios for weight status movements for children aged 3-17. Surveys were conducted at ages 3 (wave 2 in 2004), 5 (wave 3 in 2006), 7 (wave 4 in 2008), 11 (wave 5 in 2012), 14 (wave 6 in 2015), and 17 (wave 7 in 2018) years. We derived datasets that included repeated body mass index measurements across waves after excluding multiple births and children with missing or implausible bodyweight records. To account for the stratified cluster sample design of the MCS, we incorporated survey weights and jackknife replicates of survey weights. Using a validation dataset from the MCS, we tested the validity of our models. Finally, we estimated the relationships between state transitions and child, maternal, and sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

The datasets for our primary analysis consisted of 10,399 children for waves 2-3, 10,729 for waves 3-4, 9685 for waves 4-5, 8593 for waves 5-6, and 7085 for waves 6-7. All datasets consisted of roughly equal splits of boys and girls. Under the assumption of time-heterogeneous transition rates (our base-case model), younger children (ages 3-5 and 5-7 years) had significantly higher annual transition probabilities of moving from healthy weight to overweight (0.033, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.026-0.041, and 0.027, 95% CI 0.021-0.033, respectively) compared to older children (0.015, 95% CI 0.012-0.018, at ages 7-11; 0.018, 95% CI 0.013-0.023, at ages 11-14; and 0.018, 95% CI 0.013-0.025 at ages 14-17 years). However, the resolution of unhealthy weight was more strongly age-dependent than transitions from healthy weight to non-healthy weight states. Transition hazards differed by child, maternal, and sociodemographic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our models generated estimates of bodyweight status transitions in a representative UK childhood population. Compared to our scenario models (i.e., time-homogeneous transition rates), our base-case model fits the observed data best, indicating a non-time-homogeneous pattern in transitions between bodyweight categories during childhood. Transition hazards varied significantly by age and across subpopulations, suggesting that conducting subgroup-specific cost-effectiveness analyses of childhood weight management interventions will optimize decision-making.

Estimating the direct healthcare utilization and cost of musculoskeletal pain among people with comorbidity: a retrospective electronic health record study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of pre-existing painful musculoskeletal conditions on healthcare utilization and costs among patients with five common conditions: acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke, cancer, dementia and pneumonia.

METHODS

Using primary and secondary care services data from electronic health records, a negative binomial regression model was used to compare resource use while a two-part model was used to compare costs across the five conditions, between those with and without a pre-existing musculoskeletal pain.

RESULTS

The study included 760,792 patients (144,870 with ACS, 121,208 with stroke, 231,702 with cancer, 134,638 with dementia, and 128,374 with pneumonia) in the complete case analysis. Pre-existing musculoskeletal pain had an incident rate ratio of above one for most healthcare resources over the follow-up period and an adjusted additional mean cumulative total healthcare costs per patient of £674.59 (95%CI 570.30 to 778.87) for ACS; £613.34 (95%CI 496.87 to 729.82) for stroke; £459.26 (95%CI 376.60 to 541.91) for cancer; and £766.23 (95%CI 655.06 to 877.39) for dementia over five years after diagnosis; and £200.85 (95%CI 104.16 to 297.55) for pneumonia over one year after diagnosis compared to those without musculoskeletal pain.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights that individuals with painful musculoskeletal conditions have higher healthcare utiliszation and costs than those without painful musculoskeletal conditions. Given the high occurrence of musculoskeletal pain in patients with other conditions, effective management strategies are needed to reduce the burden on healthcare resources.

CARE: Protocol of a randomised trial evaluating the feasibility of preoperative intentional weight loss to support postoperative recovery in patients with excess weight and colorectal cancer

AIM

Excess weight increases the risk of morbidity following colorectal cancer surgery. Weight loss may improve morbidity, but it is uncertain whether patients can follow an intensive weight loss intervention while waiting for surgery and there are concerns about muscle mass loss. The aim of this trial is to assess the feasibility of intentional weight loss in this setting and determine progression to a definitive trial.

METHODS

CARE is a prospectively registered, multicentre, feasibility, parallel, randomised controlled trial with embedded evaluation and optimisation of the recruitment process. Participants with excess weight awaiting curative colorectal resection for cancer are randomised 1:1 to care as usual or a low-energy nutritionally-replete total diet replacement programme with weekly remote behavioural support by a dietitian. Progression criteria will be based on the recruitment, engagement, adherence, and retention rates. Data will be collected on the 30-day postoperative morbidity, the typical primary outcome of prehabilitation trials. Secondary outcomes will include, among others, length of hospital stay, health-related quality of life, and body composition. Qualitative interviews will be used to understand patients' experiences of and attitudes towards trial participation and intervention engagement and adherence.

CONCLUSION

CARE will evaluate the feasibility of intensive intentional weight loss as prehabilitation before colorectal cancer surgery. The results will determine the planning of a definitive trial.

A qualitative study of health workers' perspectives on malaria case identification and management among pregnant women in Savelugu Municipality, Ghana

Despite successes in malaria control interventions over the past two decades, malaria remains a major public health concern. Over 125 million women live in endemic areas and experience adverse pregnancy outcomes due to malaria. Understanding health workers' perspectives on malaria identification and management is important to informing policy changes on the control and eradication of the disease. This study explored the perspectives of health workers on malaria case identification and management among pregnant women in Savelugu Municipality, Ghana. A qualitative study with a phenomenology design was conducted among participants. Participants were purposively selected and interviewed using a semi-structured interview guide. Thematic analysis was performed and the results were presented as themes and sub-themes. Four themes and eight sub-themes regarding case identification and management of malaria in pregnancy were identified including malaria case identification training (trained and untrained), identification approach (signs/symptoms and routine laboratory test), diagnostic tools (rapid diagnostic test and microscopy) and management options. It revealed that attending malaria training programs was generally optional. Some of the participants had not undergone any refresher training for malaria identification after their formal training at health institutions. Participants identified malaria by its signs and symptoms. However, they often referred clients for routine laboratory tests for confirmation. When malaria is confirmed in pregnancy, quinine is used for first trimester treatment, while Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies are prescribed after the first trimester. Clindamycin was not used in the first trimester treatment. This study found that training programs were optional for health workers. Some participants have not received refresher training after graduating from health institutions. Treatment of confirmed cases did not include clindamycin for first trimester malaria infections. Malaria refresher training programs should be made mandatory for health workers. Every suspected case should be confirmed using Rapid Diagnostic Test or microscopy before treatment.

A Supportive Self-Management Program for People With Chronic Headaches and Migraine: A Randomized Controlled Trial and Economic Evaluation

Background and Objectives:

Chronic headache disorders are a major cause of pain and disability. Education and supportive self-management approaches could reduce burden of headache disability. We tested the effectiveness of a group educational and supportive self-management programme for people living with chronic headaches.

Methods:

A pragmatic randomised controlled trial. Participants were aged ≥18 years with chronic migraine or chronic tension type headache, with or without medication overuse headache.

We primarily recruited from general practices. Participants were assigned to either a two-day group education and self-management programme, a one-to-one nurse interview, and telephone support or to usual care plus relaxation material.

The primary outcome was headache related quality of life using the Headache Impact Test (HIT-6) at 12 months. The primary analysis used intention-to-treat principles for participants with migraine and both baseline and 12-month HIT-6 data.

Results:

Between April 2017 and March 2019, we randomised 736 participants. Since only nine participants just had tension type headache our main analyses were on the 727 participants with migraine. Of these 376 were allocated to the self-management intervention 351 to usual care. Data from 586 (81%) participants were analysed for primary outcome. There was no between group difference in HIT-6, (adjusted mean difference = -0·3, 95% CI -1·23 to 0·67), or headache days (0·9, 95% CI -0·29, 2·05), at 12 months. The CHESS intervention generated incremental adjusted costs of £268 (95% CI,£176 to £377) [USD383 (95%CI USD252 to USD539)] and incremental adjusted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 0.031 (95% CI -0.005 to .063). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £8,617 (USD12,322) per QALY gained.

Discussion:

These findings conclusively show a lack of benefit for quality of life or monthly headache days from a brief group education and supportive self-management programme for people living with chronic migraine or chronic tension type headache with episodic migraine.

Registered on the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number registry,ISRCTN7970810016th December 2015https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN79708100The first enrolment was 24th April 2017.

Classification of evidence:

This study provides Class III evidence that a brief group education and self-management program does not increase the probability of improvement in headache related quality of life in people with chronic migraine.

Mapping between headache specific and generic preference-based health-related quality of life measures

Background

The Headache Impact Test (HIT-6) and the Chronic Headache Questionnaire (CH-QLQ) measure headache-related quality of life but are not preference-based and therefore cannot be used to generate health utilities for cost-effectiveness analyses. There are currently no established algorithms for mapping between the HIT-6 or CH-QLQ and preference-based health-related quality-of-life measures for chronic headache population.

Methods

We developed algorithms for generating EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D utilities from the HIT-6 and the CHQLQ using both direct and response mapping approaches. A multi-stage model selection process was used to assess the predictive accuracy of the models. The estimated mapping algorithms were derived to generate UK tariffs and was validated using the Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study (CHESS) trial dataset.

Results

Several models were developed that reasonably accurately predict health utilities in this context. The best performing model for predicting EQ-5D-5L utility scores from the HIT-6 scores was a Censored Least Absolute Deviations (CLAD) (1) model that only included the HIT-6 score as the covariate (mean squared error (MSE) 0.0550). The selected model for CH-QLQ to EQ-5D-5L was the CLAD (3) model that included CH-QLQ summary scores, age, and gender, squared terms and interaction terms as covariates (MSE 0.0583). The best performing model for predicting SF-6D utility scores from the HIT-6 scores was the CLAD (2) model that included the HIT-6 score and age and gender as covariates (MSE 0.0102). The selected model for CH-QLQ to SF-6D was the OLS (2) model that included CH-QLQ summary scores, age, and gender as covariates (MSE 0.0086).

Conclusion

The developed algorithms enable the estimation of EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D utilities from two headache-specific questionnaires where preference-based health-related quality of life data are missing. However, further work is needed to help define the best approach to measuring health utilities in headache studies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01762-y.

Economic costs and health utility values associated with extremely preterm birth: Evidence from the EPICure2 cohort study

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth is associated with adverse health and developmental sequelae that impose a burden on finite resources and significant challenges for individuals, families and societies.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate economic outcomes at age 11 associated with extremely preterm birth using evidence from a whole population study (EPICure2 study).

METHODS

The study population comprised a sample of children born at ≤26 completed weeks of gestation during 2006 in England (n = 200) and a comparison group of classmates born at term (n = 143). Societal costs were estimated using parent and teacher reports of service utilisation, and valuations of work losses and additional care costs to families. Utility scores for the Health Utilities Index Mark 2 (HUI2) and Mark 3 (HUI3) were generated using UK and Canadian value sets. Generalised linear regression was used to estimate the impact of extremely preterm birth on societal costs and utility scores.

RESULTS

Unadjusted mean societal costs that excluded provision of special educational support in mainstream schools during the 11th year after birth were £6536 for the extremely preterm group and £3275 for their classmates, generating a difference of £3262 (95% confidence interval [CI] £1912, £5543). The mean adjusted cost difference was £2916 (95% CI £1609, £4224), including special educational needs provision in mainstream schools increased the adjusted cost difference to £4772 (95% CI £3166, £6378). Compared with birth at term, extremely preterm birth generated mean-adjusted utility decrements ranging from 0.13 (95% CI 0.09, 0.18) based on the UK HUI2 statistical inference tariff to 0.28 (95% CI 0.18, 0.37) based on the Canadian HUI3 tariff.

CONCLUSIONS

The adverse economic impact of extremely preterm birth persists into late childhood. Further longitudinal studies conducted from multiple perspectives are needed to understand the magnitude, trajectory and underpinning mechanisms of economic outcomes following extremely preterm birth.

Arthroscopic hip surgery compared with personalised hip therapy in people over 16 years old with femoroacetabular impingement syndrome: UK FASHIoN RCT

BACKGROUND

Femoroacetabular impingement syndrome is an important cause of hip pain in young adults. It can be treated by arthroscopic hip surgery or with physiotherapist-led conservative care.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of hip arthroscopy with best conservative care.

DESIGN

The UK FASHIoN (full trial of arthroscopic surgery for hip impingement compared with non-operative care) trial was a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial that was carried out at 23 NHS hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were included if they had femoroacetabular impingement, were aged ≥ 16 years old, had hip pain with radiographic features of cam or pincer morphology (but no osteoarthritis) and were believed to be likely to benefit from hip arthroscopy.

INTERVENTION

Participants were randomly allocated (1 : 1) to receive hip arthroscopy followed by postoperative physiotherapy, or personalised hip therapy (i.e. an individualised physiotherapist-led programme of conservative care). Randomisation was stratified by impingement type and recruiting centre using a central telephone randomisation service. Outcome assessment and analysis were masked.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome was hip-related quality of life, measured by the patient-reported International Hip Outcome Tool (iHOT-33) 12 months after randomisation, and analysed by intention to treat.

RESULTS

Between July 2012 and July 2016, 648 eligible patients were identified and 348 participants were recruited. In total, 171 participants were allocated to receive hip arthroscopy and 177 participants were allocated to receive personalised hip therapy. Three further patients were excluded from the trial after randomisation because they did not meet the eligibility criteria. Follow-up at the primary outcome assessment was 92% (N = 319; hip arthroscopy, n = 157; personalised hip therapy, n = 162). At 12 months, mean International Hip Outcome Tool (iHOT-33) score had improved from 39.2 (standard deviation 20.9) points to 58.8 (standard deviation 27.2) points for participants in the hip arthroscopy group, and from 35.6 (standard deviation 18.2) points to 49.7 (standard deviation 25.5) points for participants in personalised hip therapy group. In the primary analysis, the mean difference in International Hip Outcome Tool scores, adjusted for impingement type, sex, baseline International Hip Outcome Tool score and centre, was 6.8 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 12.0) points in favour of hip arthroscopy (p = 0.0093). This estimate of treatment effect exceeded the minimum clinically important difference (6.1 points). Five (83%) of six serious adverse events in the hip arthroscopy group were related to treatment and one serious adverse event in the personalised hip therapy group was not. Thirty-eight (24%) personalised hip therapy patients chose to have hip arthroscopy between 1 and 3 years after randomisation. Nineteen (12%) hip arthroscopy patients had a revision arthroscopy. Eleven (7%) personalised hip therapy patients and three (2%) hip arthroscopy patients had a hip replacement within 3 years.

LIMITATIONS

Study participants and treating clinicians were not blinded to the intervention arm. Delays were encountered in participants accessing treatment, particularly surgery. Follow-up lasted for 3 years.

CONCLUSION

Hip arthroscopy and personalised hip therapy both improved hip-related quality of life for patients with femoroacetabular impingement syndrome. Hip arthroscopy led to a greater improvement in quality of life than personalised hip therapy, and this difference was clinically significant at 12 months. This study does not demonstrate cost-effectiveness of hip arthroscopy compared with personalised hip therapy within the first 12 months. Further follow-up will reveal whether or not the clinical benefits of hip arthroscopy are maintained and whether or not it is cost-effective in the long term.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN64081839.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 16. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Rapid antigen detection and molecular tests for group A streptococcal infections for acute sore throat: systematic reviews and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Sore throat is a common condition caused by an infection of the airway. Most cases are of a viral nature; however, a number of these infections may be caused by the group A Streptococcus bacterium. Most viral and bacterial sore throat infections resolve spontaneously within a few weeks. Point-of-care testing in primary care has been recognised as an emerging technology for aiding targeted antibiotic prescribing for sore throat in cases that do not spontaneously resolve.

OBJECTIVE

Systematically review the evidence for 21 point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria and develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of point-of-care tests alongside clinical scoring tools with the cost-effectiveness of clinical scoring tools alone for patients managed in primary care and hospital settings.

DATA SOURCES

Multiple electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2019. The following databases were searched in November and December 2018 and searches were updated in March 2019: MEDLINE [via OvidSP (Health First, Rockledge, FL, USA)], MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Daily Update (via OvidSP), EMBASE (via OvidSP), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews [via Wiley Online Library (John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA)], Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (via Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Health Technology Assessment database (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings [via the Web of Science™ (Clarivate Analytics, Philadelphia, PA, USA)] and the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination).

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies included those of people aged ≥ 5 years presenting with sore throat symptoms, studies comparing point-of-care testing with antibiotic-prescribing decisions, studies of test accuracy and studies of cost-effectiveness. Quality assessment of eligible studies was undertaken. Meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity was carried out for tests with sufficient data. A decision tree model estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.

RESULTS

The searches identified 38 studies of clinical effectiveness and three studies of cost-effectiveness. Twenty-six full-text articles and abstracts reported on the test accuracy of point-of-care tests and/or clinical scores with biological culture as a reference standard. In the population of interest (patients with Centor/McIsaac scores of ≥ 3 points or FeverPAIN scores of ≥ 4 points), point estimates were 0.829 to 0.946 for sensitivity and 0.849 to 0.991 for specificity. There was considerable heterogeneity, even for studies using the same point-of-care test, suggesting that is unlikely that any single study will have accurately captured a test's true performance. There is some randomised controlled trial evidence to suggest that the use of rapid antigen detection tests may help to reduce antibiotic-prescribing rates. Sensitivity and specificity estimates for each test in each age group and care setting combination were obtained using meta-analyses where appropriate. Any apparent differences in test accuracy may not be attributable to the tests, and may have been caused by known differences in the studies, latent characteristics or chance. Fourteen of the 21 tests reviewed were included in the economic modelling, and these tests were not cost-effective within the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's cost-effectiveness thresholds. Uncertainties in the cost-effectiveness estimates included model parameter inputs and assumptions that increase the cost of testing, and the penalty for antibiotic overprescriptions.

LIMITATIONS

No information was identified for the elderly population or pharmacy setting. It was not possible to identify which test is the most accurate owing to the paucity of evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

The systematic review and the cost-effectiveness models identified uncertainties around the adoption of point-of-care tests in primary and secondary care settings. Although sensitivity and specificity estimates are promising, we have little information to establish the most accurate point-of-care test. Further research is needed to understand the test accuracy of point-of-care tests in the proposed NHS pathway and in comparable settings and patient groups.

STUDY REGISTRATION

The protocol of the review is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018118653.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 31. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Measuring health-related quality of life in chronic headache: A comparative evaluation of the Chronic Headache Quality of Life Questionnaire and Headache Impact Test (HIT-6)

OBJECTIVE

To compare the quality and acceptability of a new headache-specific patient-reported measure, the Chronic Headache Quality of Life Questionnaire (CHQLQ) with the six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), in people meeting an epidemiological definition of chronic headaches.

METHODS

Participants in the feasibility stage of the Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study (CHESS) (n = 130) completed measures three times during a 12-week prospective cohort study. Data quality, measurement acceptability, reliability, validity, responsiveness to change, and score interpretation were determined. Semi-structured cognitive interviews explored measurement relevance, acceptability, clarity, and comprehensiveness.

RESULTS

Both measures were well completed with few missing items. The CHQLQ's inclusion of emotional wellbeing items increased its relevance to participant's experience of chronic headache. End effects were present at item level only for both measures. Structural assessment supported the three and one-factor solutions of the CHQLQ and HIT-6, respectively. Both the CHQLQ (range 0.87 to 0.94) and HIT-6 (0.90) were internally consistent, with acceptable temporal stability over 2 weeks (CHQLQ range 0.74 to 0.80; HIT-6 0.86). Both measures responded to change in headache-specific health at 12 weeks (CHQLQ smallest detectable change (improvement) range 3 to 5; HIT-6 2.1).

CONCLUSIONS

While both measures are structurally valid, internally consistent, temporally stable, and responsive to change, the CHQLQ has greater relevance to the patient experience of chronic headache.Trial registration number: ISRCTN79708100. Registered 16th December 2015, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN79708100.

Cycle threshold values are inversely associated with poorer outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a prospective, observational cohort study conducted at a UK tertiary hospital

This single-centre observational study demonstrated that lower cycle threshold (Ct) values (indicating higher viral loads) on admission to hospital were associated with poorer outcomes in unvaccinated, hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Demographic and outcome data were collected prospectively for all adult patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 on admission to the University Hospitals North Midlands NHS Trust between 1 February and 1 July 2020. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were obtained, and a valid Ct value was determined for all patients using the Viasure reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay, validated by Public Health England, on admission to hospital. Multi-variable logistic regression results based on data from 618 individuals demonstrated a significant inverse relationship between the odds of death and Ct values (adjusted odds ratio 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.92-0.98, P=0.001). The association remained highly significant after adjusting for known clinical risk factors for COVID-19.

Multivariate Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models for the Analysis of Clinical Trial-Based Cost-Effectiveness Data

Economic evaluations conducted alongside randomized controlled trials are a popular vehicle for generating high-quality evidence on the incremental cost-effectiveness of competing health care interventions. Typically, in these studies, resource use (and by extension, economic costs) and clinical (or preference-based health) outcomes data are collected prospectively for trial participants to estimate the joint distribution of incremental costs and incremental benefits associated with the intervention. In this article, we extend the generalized linear mixed-model framework to enable simultaneous modeling of multiple outcomes of mixed data types, such as those typically encountered in trial-based economic evaluations, taking into account correlation of outcomes due to repeated measurements on the same individual and other clustering effects. We provide new wrapper functions to estimate the models in Stata and R by maximum and restricted maximum quasi-likelihood and compare the performance of the new routines with alternative implementations across a range of statistical programming packages. Empirical applications using observed and simulated data from clinical trials suggest that the new methods produce broadly similar results as compared with Stata’s merlin and gsem commands and a Bayesian implementation in WinBUGS. We highlight that, although these empirical applications primarily focus on trial-based economic evaluations, the new methods presented can be generalized to other health economic investigations characterized by multivariate hierarchical data structures.

Adrenaline to improve survival in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: the PARAMEDIC2 RCT

BACKGROUND

Adrenaline has been used as a treatment for cardiac arrest for many years, despite uncertainty about its effects on long-term outcomes and concerns that it may cause worse neurological outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the effects of adrenaline on survival and neurological outcomes, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of adrenaline use.

DESIGN

This was a pragmatic, randomised, allocation-concealed, placebo-controlled, parallel-group superiority trial and economic evaluation. Costs are expressed in Great British pounds and reported in 2016/17 prices.

SETTING

This trial was set in five NHS ambulance services in England and Wales.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults treated for an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were included. Patients were ineligible if they were pregnant, if they were aged < 16 years, if the cardiac arrest had been caused by anaphylaxis or life-threatening asthma, or if adrenaline had already been given.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomised to either adrenaline (1 mg) or placebo in a 1 : 1 allocation ratio by the opening of allocation-concealed treatment packs.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was survival to 30 days. The secondary outcomes were survival to hospital admission, survival to hospital discharge, survival at 3, 6 and 12 months, neurological outcomes and health-related quality of life through to 6 months. The economic evaluation assessed the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained from the perspective of the NHS and Personal Social Services. Participants, clinical teams and those assessing patient outcomes were masked to the treatment allocation.

RESULTS

From December 2014 to October 2017, 8014 participants were assigned to the adrenaline (n = 4015) or to the placebo (n = 3999) arm. At 30 days, 130 out of 4012 participants (3.2%) in the adrenaline arm and 94 out of 3995 (2.4%) in the placebo arm were alive (adjusted odds ratio for survival 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.97). For secondary outcomes, survival to hospital admission was higher for those receiving adrenaline than for those receiving placebo (23.6% vs. 8.0%; adjusted odds ratio 3.83, 95% confidence interval 3.30 to 4.43). The rate of favourable neurological outcome at hospital discharge was not significantly different between the arms (2.2% vs. 1.9%; adjusted odds ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.68). The pattern of improved survival but no significant improvement in neurological outcomes continued through to 6 months. By 12 months, survival in the adrenaline arm was 2.7%, compared with 2.0% in the placebo arm (adjusted odds ratio 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.92). An adjusted subgroup analysis did not identify significant interactions. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for adrenaline was estimated at £1,693,003 per quality-adjusted life-year gained over the first 6 months after the cardiac arrest event and £81,070 per quality-adjusted life-year gained over the lifetime of survivors. Additional economic analyses estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for adrenaline at £982,880 per percentage point increase in overall survival and £377,232 per percentage point increase in neurological outcomes over the first 6 months after the cardiac arrest.

LIMITATIONS

The estimate for survival with a favourable neurological outcome is imprecise because of the small numbers of patients surviving with a good outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Adrenaline improved long-term survival, but there was no evidence that it significantly improved neurological outcomes. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year exceeds the threshold of £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year usually supported by the NHS.

FUTURE WORK

Further research is required to better understand patients' preferences in relation to survival and neurological outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and to aid interpretation of the trial findings from a patient and public perspective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN73485024 and EudraCT 2014-000792-11.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 25. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Can levosimendan reduce ECMO weaning failure in cardiogenic shock?: a cohort study with propensity score analysis

Background

Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) has been increasingly used over the last decade in patients with refractory cardiogenic shock. ECMO weaning can, however, be challenging and lead to circulatory failure and death. Recent data suggest a potential benefit of levosimendan for ECMO weaning. We sought to further investigate whether the use of levosimendan could decrease the rate of ECMO weaning failure in adult patients with refractory cardiogenic shock.

Methods

We performed an observational single-center cohort study. All patients undergoing VA-ECMO from January 2012 to December 2018 were eligible and divided into two groups: group levosimendan and group control (without levosimendan). The primary endpoint was VA-ECMO weaning failure defined as death during VA-ECMO treatment or within 24 h after VA-ECMO removal. Secondary outcomes were mortality at day 28 and at 6 months. The two groups were compared after propensity score matching. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Two hundred patients were analyzed (levosimendan group: n = 53 and control group: n = 147). No significant difference was found between groups on baseline characteristics except for ECMO duration, which was longer in the levosimendan group (10.6 ± 4.8 vs. 6.5 ± 4.7 days, p < 0.001). Levosimendan administration started 6.6 ± 5.4 days on average following ECMO implantation. After matching of 48 levosimendan patients to 78 control patients, the duration of ECMO was similar in both groups. The rate of weaning failure was 29.1% and 35.4% in levosimendan and control groups, respectively (OR: 0.69, 95%CI: 0.25–1.88). No significant difference was found between groups for all secondary outcomes.

Conclusion

Levosimendan did not improve the rate of successful VA-ECMO weaning in patients with refractory cardiogenic shock.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04323709.

Usual care and a self-management support programme versus usual care and a relaxation programme for people living with chronic headache disorders: a randomised controlled trial protocol (CHESS)

INTRODUCTION

Chronic headaches are poorly diagnosed and managed and can be exacerbated by medication overuse. There is insufficient evidence on the non-pharmacological approaches to helping people living with chronic headaches.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study is a pragmatic randomised controlled trial to test the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a self-management education support programme on top of usual care for patients with chronic headaches against a control of usual care and relaxation. The intervention is a 2-day group course based on education, personal reflection and a cognitive behavioural approach, plus a nurse-led one-to-one consultation and follow-up over 8 weeks. We aim to recruit 689 participants (356 to the intervention arm and 333 to the control) from primary care and self-referral in London and the Midlands. The trial is powered to show a difference of 2.0 points on the Headache Impact Test, a patient-reported outcome measure at 12 months post randomisation. Secondary outcomes include health related quality of life, self-efficacy, social activation and engagement, anxiety and depression and healthcare utilisation. Outcomes are being measured at 4, 8 and 12 months. Cost-effectiveness will be expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This trial will provide data on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a self-management support programme for chronic headaches. The results will inform commissioning of services and clinical practice. North West - Greater Manchester East Research Ethics Committee have approved the trial. The current protocol version is 3.6 date 7 March 2019.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN79708100.

A bootstrapping approach for generating an inverse distance weight matrix when multiple observations have an identical location in large health surveys

Spatial weight matrices play a key role in econometrics to capture spatial effects. However, these constructs are prone to clustering and can be challenging to analyse in common statistical packages such as STATA. Multiple observations of survey participants in the same location (or cluster) have traditionally not been dealt with appropriately by statistical packages. It is common that participants are assigned Geographic Information System (GIS) data at a regional or district level rather than at a small area level. For example, the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) generates GIS data at a cluster level, such as a regional or district level, rather than providing coordinates for each participant. Moreover, current statistical packages are not suitable for estimating large matrices such as 20,000 × 20,000 (reflective of data within large health surveys) since the statistical package limits the N to a smaller number. In addition, in many cases, GIS information is offered at an aggregated level of geographical areas. To alleviate this problem, this paper proposes a bootstrap approach that generates an inverse distance spatial weight matrix for application in econometric analyses of health survey data. The new approach is illustrated using DHS data on uptake of HIV testing in low and middle income countries.

Economic outcomes associated with deep surgical site infection in patients with an open fracture of the lower limb

Aims

The aim of this study was to estimate economic outcomes associated with deep surgical site infection (SSI) in patients with an open fracture of the lower limb.

Patients and Methods

A total of 460 patients were recruited from 24 specialist trauma hospitals in the United Kingdom Major Trauma Network. Preference-based health-related quality-of-life outcomes, assessed using the EuroQol EQ-5D-3L and the 6-Item Short-Form Health Survey questionnaire (SF-6D), and economic costs (£, 2014/2015 prices) were measured using participant-completed questionnaires over the 12 months following injury. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analysis were used to explore the relationship between deep SSI and health utility scores, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and health and personal social service (PSS) costs.

Results

Deep SSI was associated with lower EQ-5D-3L derived QALYs (adjusted mean difference -0.102, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.202 to 0.001, p = 0.047) and increased health and social care costs (adjusted mean difference £1950; 95% CI £1383 to £5285, p = 0.250) versus patients without deep SSI over the 12 months following injury.

Conclusion

Deep SSI may lead to significantly impaired health-related quality of life and increased economic costs. Our economic estimates can be used to inform clinical and budgetary service planning and can act as reference data for future economic evaluations of preventive or treatment interventions. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1506–10.

Hip arthroscopy versus best conservative care for the treatment of femoroacetabular impingement syndrome (UK FASHIoN): a multicentre randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Femoroacetabular impingement syndrome is an important cause of hip pain in young adults. It can be treated by arthroscopic hip surgery, including reshaping the hip, or with physiotherapist-led conservative care. We aimed to compare the clinical effectiveness of hip arthroscopy with best conservative care.

METHODS

UK FASHIoN is a pragmatic, multicentre, assessor-blinded randomised controlled trial, done at 23 National Health Service hospitals in the UK. We enrolled patients with femoroacetabular impingement syndrome who presented at these hospitals. Eligible patients were at least 16 years old, had hip pain with radiographic features of cam or pincer morphology but no osteoarthritis, and were believed to be likely to benefit from hip arthroscopy. Patients with bilateral femoroacetabular impingement syndrome were eligible; only the most symptomatic hip was randomly assigned to treatment and followed-up. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1) to receive hip arthroscopy or personalised hip therapy (an individualised, supervised, and progressive physiotherapist-led programme of conservative care). Randomisation was stratified by impingement type and recruiting centre and was done by research staff at each hospital, using a central telephone randomisation service. Patients and treating clinicians were not masked to treatment allocation, but researchers who collected the outcome assessments and analysed the results were masked. The primary outcome was hip-related quality of life, as measured by the patient-reported International Hip Outcome Tool (iHOT-33) 12 months after randomisation, and analysed in all eligible participants who were allocated to treatment (the intention-to-treat population). This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN64081839, and is closed to recruitment.

FINDINGS

Between July 20, 2012, and July 15, 2016, we identified 648 eligible patients and recruited 348 participants: 171 participants were allocated to receive hip arthroscopy and 177 to receive personalised hip therapy. Three further patients were excluded from the trial after randomisation because they did not meet the eligibility criteria. Follow-up at the primary outcome assessment was 92% (319 of 348 participants). At 12 months after randomisation, mean iHOT-33 scores had improved from 39·2 (SD 20·9) to 58·8 (27·2) for participants in the hip arthroscopy group, and from 35·6 (18·2) to 49·7 (25·5) in the personalised hip therapy group. In the primary analysis, the mean difference in iHOT-33 scores, adjusted for impingement type, sex, baseline iHOT-33 score, and centre, was 6·8 (95% CI 1·7-12·0) in favour of hip arthroscopy (p=0·0093). This estimate of treatment effect exceeded the minimum clinically important difference (6·1 points). There were 147 patient-reported adverse events (in 100 [72%] of 138 patients) in the hip arthroscopy group) versus 102 events (in 88 [60%] of 146 patients) in the personalised hip therapy group, with muscle soreness being the most common of these (58 [42%] vs 69 [47%]). There were seven serious adverse events reported by participating hospitals. Five (83%) of six serious adverse events in the hip arthroscopy group were related to treatment, and the one in the personalised hip therapy group was not. There were no treatment-related deaths, but one patient in the hip arthroscopy group developed a hip joint infection after surgery.

INTERPRETATION

Hip arthroscopy and personalised hip therapy both improved hip-related quality of life for patients with femoroacetabular impingement syndrome. Hip arthroscopy led to a greater improvement than did personalised hip therapy, and this difference was clinically significant. Further follow-up will reveal whether the clinical benefits of hip arthroscopy are maintained and whether it is cost effective in the long term.

FUNDING

The Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute of Health Research.

COSCA (Core Outcome Set for Cardiac Arrest) in Adults: An Advisory Statement From the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation

Cardiac arrest effectiveness trials have traditionally reported outcomes that focus on survival. A lack of consistency in outcome reporting between trials limits the opportunities to pool results for meta-analysis. The COSCA initiative (Core Outcome Set for Cardiac Arrest), a partnership between patients, their partners, clinicians, research scientists, and the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation, sought to develop a consensus core outcome set for cardiac arrest for effectiveness trials. Core outcome sets are primarily intended for large, randomized clinical effectiveness trials (sometimes referred to as pragmatic trials or phase III/IV trials) rather than for pilot or efficacy studies. A systematic review of the literature combined with qualitative interviews among cardiac arrest survivors was used to generate a list of potential outcome domains. This list was prioritized through a Delphi process, which involved clinicians, patients, and their relatives/partners. An international advisory panel narrowed these down to 3 core domains by debate that led to consensus. The writing group refined recommendations for when these outcomes should be measured and further characterized relevant measurement tools. Consensus emerged that a core outcome set for reporting on effectiveness studies of cardiac arrest (COSCA) in adults should include survival, neurological function, and health-related quality of life. This should be reported as survival status and modified Rankin scale score at hospital discharge, at 30 days, or both. Health-related quality of life should be measured with ≥1 tools from Health Utilities Index version 3, Short-Form 36-Item Health Survey, and EuroQol 5D-5L at 90 days and at periodic intervals up to 1 year after cardiac arrest, if resources allow.

Facet joint injections for people with persistent non-specific low back pain (Facet Injection Study): a feasibility study for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 2009 guidelines for persistent low back pain (LBP) do not recommend the injection of therapeutic substances into the back as a treatment for LBP because of the absence of evidence for their effectiveness. This feasibility study aimed to provide a stable platform that could be used to evaluate a randomised controlled trial (RCT) on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of intra-articular facet joint injections (FJIs) when added to normal care.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the feasibility of running a RCT to test the hypothesis that, for people with suspected facet joint back pain, adding the option of intra-articular FJIs (local anaesthetic and corticosteroids) to best usual non-invasive care is clinically effective and cost-effective.

DESIGN

The trial was a mixed design. The RCT pilot protocol development involved literature reviews and a consensus conference followed by a randomised pilot study with an embedded mixed-methods process evaluation.

SETTING

Five NHS acute trusts in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were patients aged ≥ 18 years with moderately troublesome LBP present (> 6 months), who had failed previous conservative treatment and who had suspected facet joint pain. The study aimed to recruit 150 participants (approximately 30 per site). Participants were randomised sequentially by a remote service to FJIs combined with 'best usual care' (BUC) or BUC alone.

INTERVENTIONS

All participants were to receive six sessions of a bespoke BUC rehabilitation package. Those randomised into the intervention arm were, in addition, given FJIs with local anaesthetic and steroids (at up to six injection sites). Randomisation occurred at the end of the first BUC session.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Process and clinical outcomes. Clinical outcomes included a measurement of level of pain on a scale from 0 to 10, which was collected daily and then weekly via text messaging (or through a written diary). Questionnaire follow-up was at 3 months.

RESULTS

Fifty-two stakeholders attended the consensus meeting. Agreement informed several statistical questions and three design considerations: diagnosis, the process of FJI and the BUC package and informing the design for the randomised pilot study. Recruitment started on 26 June 2015 and was terminated by the funder (as a result of poor recruitment) on 11 December 2015. In total, 26 participants were randomised. Process data illuminate some of the reasons for recruitment problems but also show that trial processes after enrolment ran smoothly. No between-group analysis was carried out. All pain-related outcomes show the expected improvement between baseline and follow-up. The mean total cost of the overall treatment package (injection £419.22 and BUC £264.00) was estimated at £683.22 per participant. This is similar to a NHS tariff cost for a course of FJIs of £686.84.

LIMITATIONS

Poor recruitment was a limiting factor.

CONCLUSIONS

This feasibility study achieved consensus on the main challenges in a trial of FJIs for people with persistent non-specific low back pain.

FUTURE WORK

Further work is needed to test recruitment from alternative clinical situations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EudraCT 2014-000682-50 and Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN93184143.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A methodological framework for assessing agreement between cost-effectiveness outcomes estimated using alternative sources of data on treatment costs and effects for trial-based economic evaluations

A new methodological framework for assessing agreement between cost-effectiveness endpoints generated using alternative sources of data on treatment costs and effects for trial-based economic evaluations is proposed. The framework can be used to validate cost-effectiveness endpoints generated from routine data sources when comparable data is available directly from trial case report forms or from another source. We illustrate application of the framework using data from a recent trial-based economic evaluation of the probiotic Bifidobacterium breve strain BBG administered to babies less than 31 weeks of gestation. Cost-effectiveness endpoints are compared using two sources of information; trial case report forms and data extracted from the National Neonatal Research Database (NNRD), a clinical database created through collaborative efforts of UK neonatal services. Focusing on mean incremental net benefits at £30,000 per episode of sepsis averted, the study revealed no evidence of discrepancy between the data sources (two-sided p values >0.4), low probability estimates of miscoverage (ranging from 0.039 to 0.060) and concordance correlation coefficients greater than 0.86. We conclude that the NNRD could potentially serve as a reliable source of data for future trial-based economic evaluations of neonatal interventions. We also discuss the potential implications of increasing opportunity to utilize routinely available data for the conduct of trial-based economic evaluations.

Keeping Children Safe: a multicentre programme of research to increase the evidence base for preventing unintentional injuries in the home in the under-fives

Background

Unintentional injuries among 0- to 4-year-olds are a major public health problem incurring substantial NHS, individual and societal costs. However, evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventative interventions is lacking.

Aim

To increase the evidence base for thermal injury, falls and poisoning prevention for the under-fives.

Methods

Six work streams comprising five multicentre case–control studies assessing risk and protective factors, a study measuring quality of life and injury costs, national surveys of children’s centres, interviews with children’s centre staff and parents, a systematic review of barriers to, and facilitators of, prevention and systematic overviews, meta-analyses and decision analyses of home safety interventions. Evidence from these studies informed the design of an injury prevention briefing (IPB) for children’s centres for preventing fire-related injuries and implementation support (training and facilitation). This was evaluated by a three-arm cluster randomised controlled trial comparing IPB and support (IPB+), IPB only (no support) and usual care. The primary outcome was parent-reported possession of a fire escape plan. Evidence from all work streams subsequently informed the design of an IPB for preventing thermal injuries, falls and poisoning.

Results

Modifiable risk factors for falls, poisoning and scalds were found. Most injured children and their families incurred small to moderate health-care and non-health-care costs, with a few incurring more substantial costs. Meta-analyses and decision analyses found that home safety interventions increased the use of smoke alarms and stair gates, promoted safe hot tap water temperatures, fire escape planning and storage of medicines and household products, and reduced baby walker use. Generally, more intensive interventions were the most effective, but these were not always the most cost-effective interventions. Children’s centre and parental barriers to, and facilitators of, injury prevention were identified. Children’s centres were interested in preventing injuries, and believed that they could prevent them, but few had an evidence-based strategic approach and they needed support to develop this. The IPB was implemented by children’s centres in both intervention arms, with greater implementation in the IPB+ arm. Compared with usual care, more IPB+ arm families received advice on key safety messages, and more families in each intervention arm attended fire safety sessions. The intervention did not increase the prevalence of fire escape plans [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) IPB only vs. usual care 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 1.49; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.41, 95% CI 0.91 to 2.20] but did increase the proportion of families reporting more fire escape behaviours (AOR IPB only vs. usual care 2.56, 95% CI 1.38 to 4.76; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.78, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.15). IPB-only families were less likely to report match play by children (AOR 0.27, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.94) and reported more bedtime fire safety routines (AOR for a 1-unit increase in the number of routines 1.59, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.31) than usual-care families. The IPB-only intervention was less costly and marginally more effective than usual care. The IPB+ intervention was more costly and marginally more effective than usual care.

Limitations

Our case–control studies demonstrate associations between modifiable risk factors and injuries but not causality. Some injury cost estimates are imprecise because of small numbers. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were limited by the quality of the included studies, the small numbers of studies reporting outcomes and significant heterogeneity, partly explained by differences in interventions. Network meta-analysis (NMA) categorised interventions more finely, but some variation remained. Decision analyses are likely to underestimate cost-effectiveness for a number of reasons. IPB implementation varied between children’s centres. Greater implementation may have resulted in changes in more fire safety behaviours.

Conclusions

Our studies provide new evidence about the effectiveness of, as well as economic evaluation of, home safety interventions. Evidence-based resources for preventing thermal injuries, falls and scalds were developed. Providing such resources to children’s centres increases their injury prevention activity and some parental safety behaviours.

Future work

Further randomised controlled trials, meta-analyses and NMAs are needed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of home safety interventions. Further work is required to measure NHS, family and societal costs and utility decrements for childhood home injuries and to evaluate complex multicomponent interventions such as home safety schemes using a single analytical model.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN65067450 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01452191.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full inProgramme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 5, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Methodological Issues Surrounding the Use of Baseline Health-Related Quality of Life Data to Inform Trial-Based Economic Evaluations of Interventions Within Emergency and Critical Care Settings: A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Trial-based cost-utility analyses require health-related quality of life data that generate utility values in order to express health outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Assessments of baseline health-related quality of life are problematic where trial participants are incapacitated or critically ill at the time of randomisation. This review aims to identify and critique methods for handling non-availability of baseline health-related quality of life data in trial-based cost-utility analyses within emergency and critical illness settings.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted, following PRISMA guidelines, to identify trial-based cost-utility analyses of interventions within emergency and critical care settings. Databases searched included the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Journals Library (1991-July 2016), Cochrane Library (all years); National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database (all years) and Ovid MEDLINE/Embase (without time restriction). Strategies employed to handle non-availability of baseline health-related quality of life data in final QALY estimations were identified and critiqued.

RESULTS

A total of 4224 published reports were screened, 19 of which met the study inclusion criteria (mean trial size 1670): 14 (74 %) from the UK, four (21%) from other European countries and one (5%) from India. Twelve studies (63%) were based in emergency departments and seven (37%) in intensive care units. Only one study was able to elicit patient-reported health-related quality of life at baseline. To overcome the lack of baseline data when estimating QALYs, eight studies (42%) assigned a fixed utility weight corresponding to either death, an unconscious health state or a country-specific norm to patients at baseline, four (21%) ignored baseline utilities, three (16%) applied values from another study, one (5%) generated utility values via retrospective recall and one (5%) elicited utilities from experts. A preliminary exploration of these methods shows that incremental QALY estimation is unlikely to be biased if balanced trial allocation is achieved and subsequent collection of health-related quality of life data occurs at the earliest possible opportunity following commencement of treatment, followed by an adequate number of follow-up assessments.

CONCLUSION

Trial-based cost-utility analyses within emergency and critical illness settings have applied different methods for QALY estimation, employing disparate assumptions about the health-related quality of life of patients at baseline. Where baseline measurement is not practical, measurement at the earliest opportunity following commencement of treatment should minimise bias in QALY estimation.

Pre-hospital Assessment of the Role of Adrenaline: Measuring the Effectiveness of Drug administration In Cardiac arrest (PARAMEDIC-2): Trial protocol

Despite its use since the 1960s, the safety or effectiveness of adrenaline as a treatment for cardiac arrest has never been comprehensively evaluated in a clinical trial. Although most studies have found that adrenaline increases the chance of return of spontaneous circulation for short periods, many studies found harmful effects on the brain and raise concern that adrenaline may reduce overall survival and/or good neurological outcome. The PARAMEDIC-2 trial seeks to determine if adrenaline is safe and effective in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. This is a pragmatic, individually randomised, double blind, controlled trial with a parallel economic evaluation. Participants will be eligible if they are in cardiac arrest in the out-of-hospital environment and advanced life support is initiated. Exclusions are cardiac arrest as a result of anaphylaxis or life threatening asthma, and patient known or appearing to be under 16 or pregnant. 8000 participants treated by 5 UK ambulance services will be randomised between December 2014 and August 2017 to adrenaline (intervention) or placebo (control) through opening pre-randomised drug packs. Clinical outcomes are survival to 30 days (primary outcome), hospital discharge, 3, 6 and 12 months, health related quality of life, and neurological and cognitive outcomes (secondary outcomes). Trial registration (ISRCTN73485024).

Protocol for a multicentre, parallel-arm, 12-month, randomised, controlled trial of arthroscopic surgery versus conservative care for femoroacetabular impingement syndrome (FASHIoN)

INTRODUCTION

Femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) syndrome is a recognised cause of young adult hip pain. There has been a large increase in the number of patients undergoing arthroscopic surgery for FAI; however, a recent Cochrane review highlighted that there are no randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating treatment effectiveness. We aim to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of arthroscopic surgery versus best conservative care for patients with FAI syndrome.

METHODS

We will conduct a multicentre, pragmatic, assessor-blinded, two parallel arm, RCT comparing arthroscopic surgery to physiotherapy-led best conservative care. 24 hospitals treating NHS patients will recruit 344 patients over a 26-month recruitment period. Symptomatic adults with radiographic signs of FAI morphology who are considered suitable for arthroscopic surgery by their surgeon will be eligible. Patients will be excluded if they have radiographic evidence of osteoarthritis, previous significant hip pathology or previous shape changing surgery. Participants will be allocated in a ratio of 1:1 to receive arthroscopic surgery or conservative care. Recruitment will be monitored and supported by qualitative intervention to optimise informed consent and recruitment. The primary outcome will be pain and function assessed by the international hip outcome tool 33 (iHOT-33) measured 1-year following randomisation. Secondary outcomes include general health (short form 12), quality of life (EQ5D-5L) and patient satisfaction. The primary analysis will compare change in pain and function (iHOT-33) at 12 months between the treatment groups, on an intention-to-treat basis, presented as the mean difference between the trial groups with 95% CIs. The study is funded by the Health Technology Assessment Programme (13/103/02).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is granted by the Edgbaston Research Ethics committee (14/WM/0124). The results will be disseminated through open access peer-reviewed publications, including Health Technology Assessment, and presented at relevant conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN64081839; Pre-results.

A decision analytic model to investigate the cost-effectiveness of poisoning prevention practices in households with young children

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews and a network meta-analysis show home safety education with or without the provision of safety equipment is effective in promoting poison prevention behaviours in households with children. This paper compares the cost-effectiveness of home safety interventions to promote poison prevention practices.

METHODS

A probabilistic decision-analytic model simulates healthcare costs and benefits for a hypothetical cohort of under 5 year olds. The model compares the cost-effectiveness of home safety education, home safety inspections, provision of free or low cost safety equipment and fitting of equipment. Analyses are conducted from a UK National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective and expressed in 2012 prices.

RESULTS

Education without safety inspection, provision or fitting of equipment was the most cost-effective strategy for promoting safe storage of medicines with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2888 (95 % credible interval (CrI) £1990-£5774) per poison case avoided or £41,330 (95%CrI £20,007-£91,534) per QALY gained compared with usual care. Compared to usual care, home safety interventions were not cost-effective in promoting safe storage of other household products.

CONCLUSION

Education offers better value for money than more intensive but expensive strategies for preventing medicinal poisonings, but is only likely to be cost-effective at £30,000 per QALY gained for families in disadvantaged areas and for those with more than one child. There was considerable uncertainty in cost-effectiveness estimates due to paucity of evidence on model parameters. Policy makers should consider both costs and effectiveness of competing interventions to ensure efficient use of resources.

Facet-joint injections for people with persistent non-specific low back pain (FIS): study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility trial

Background

The role of injections of therapeutic substances into the back as treatment for low back pain is unclear. Facet joint injections are widely used despite the absence of evidence of sustained benefit. We hypothesise that facet joint injections might facilitate engagement with physiotherapist-led, best usual care (a combined physical and psychological programme) and is a clinically and cost-effective treatment for people with suspected low back pain of facet joint origin.

Methods/Design

We present here the protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility trial for a main trial to test the above hypotheses.

Patients referred to secondary care with persistent non-specific low back pain will be screened and invited to take part in the study. Those who meet the eligibility criteria will be invited for a physiotherapy assessment to confirm trial eligibility and for baseline data collection. All participants (n = 150) will be offered the best usual care package with physical and psychological components. Those randomised into the intervention arm (n = 75) will, in addition, receive intra-articular facet joint injections with local anaesthetic and steroids. Primary outcome data will be collected using daily and then weekly text messaging service for a pain score on a 0–10 scale. Questionnaire follow-up will be at 3, 6, and 12 months.

Evaluation of trial processes and health economic analyses, including a value of information analysis, will be undertaken. The process evaluation will be mixed methods and will include the views of all stakeholders.

Discussion

Whilst this trial is a feasibility study it is currently one of the largest trials in this area. The outcomes will provide some evidence on the use of facet joint injections for patients with clinically diagnosed facet joint pain.

Trial registration

EudraCT identifier 2014-000682-50, (registered on 12 February 14). ISRCTN registry number: ISRCTN93184143 DOI 10.1186/ISRCTN93184143 (registered on 27 February 2014).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-015-1117-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Network meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to prevent falls in children under age 5 years

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to simultaneously evaluate the effectiveness of a range of interventions to increase the possession of safety equipment or behaviours to prevent falls in children under 5 years of age in the home.

METHODS

A recently published systematic review identified studies to be included in a network meta-analysis; an extension of pairwise meta-analysis that enables comparison of all evaluated interventions simultaneously, including comparisons not directly compared in individual studies.

RESULTS

29 primary studies were identified, of which 16 were included in at least 1 of 4 network meta-analyses. For increasing possession of a fitted stair gate, the most intensive intervention (including education, low cost/free home safety equipment, home safety inspection and fitting) was the most likely to be the most effective, with an OR versus usual care of 7.80 (95% CrI 3.08 to 21.3). For reducing possession or use of a baby walker: education only was most likely to be most effective, with an OR versus usual care of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.31 to 0.84). Little difference was found between interventions for possession of window locks (most intensive intervention versus usual care OR=1.56 (95% CrI 0.02 to 89.8)) and for not leaving a child alone on a high surface (education vs usual care OR=0.89 (95% CrI 0.10 to 9.67)). There was insufficient evidence for network meta-analysis for possession and use of bath mats.

CONCLUSIONS

These results will inform healthcare providers of the most effective components of interventions and can be used in cost-effectiveness analyses.

An exploration of synthesis methods in public health evaluations of interventions concludes that the use of modern statistical methods would be beneficial

OBJECTIVES

To review the methods currently used to synthesize evidence in public health evaluations and demonstrate the availability of more sophisticated approaches.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A systematic review of National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) public health appraisals published between 2006 and 2012 was performed to assess the methods used for the synthesis of effectiveness evidence. The ability of new developments in evidence synthesis methodology to address the challenges and opportunities present in a public health context is demonstrated.

RESULTS

Nine (23%) of the 39 NICE appraisals included in the review performed pairwise meta-analyses as part of the effectiveness review with one of these also including a network meta-analysis. Of the remainder, 29 (74.4%) presented narrative summaries of the evidence only, and 1 (2.6%) appraisal did not present any review of effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness evidence. Heterogeneity of outcomes, methods, and interventions were the main reasons given for not pooling the data. Exploration of quantitative synthesis methods shows that pairwise meta-analyses can be extended to incorporate individual participant data (when it is available), extend the number of interventions being compared using a network meta-analysis, and adjust for both subject- and summary-level covariates. All these can contribute to ensuring the analysis answers directly the policy-relevant questions.

CONCLUSION

More sophisticated methods in evidence synthesis should be considered to make evaluations in public health more useful for decision makers.

Progression rates from HbA1c 6.0-6.4% and other prediabetes definitions to type 2 diabetes: a meta-analysis

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Precise estimates of progression rates from 'prediabetes' to type 2 diabetes are needed to optimise prevention strategies for high-risk individuals. There is acceptance of prediabetes defined by impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), but there is some controversy surrounding HbA1c-defined prediabetes ranges, with some favouring 6.0-6.4% (42-46 mmol/mol). Comparing progression rates between groups might aid this issue, thus we aimed to accurately estimate progression rates to diabetes from different prediabetes categories.

METHODS

Meta-analysis of prospective observational studies in which participants had prediabetes at baseline (ADA-defined IFG [5.6-6.9 mmol/l], WHO-defined IFG [6.1-6.9 mmol/l], IGT (7.8-11.0 mmol/l) or raised HbA1c [6.0-6.4%/42-46 mmol/mol]) and were followed up for incident diabetes. Incidence rates were combined using Bayesian random effects models.

RESULTS

Overall, 70 studies met the inclusion criteria. In the six studies that used raised HbA1c, the pooled incidence rate (95% credible interval) of diabetes was 35.6 (15.1, 83.0) per 1,000 person-years. This rate was most similar to that for ADA-defined IFG (11 studies; 35.5 [26.6, 48.0]) and was non-significantly lower than WHO-defined IFG (34 studies; 47.4 [37.4, 59.8]), IGT (46 studies, 45.5 [37.8, 54.5]) and IFG plus IGT (15 studies, 70.4 [53.8, 89.7]). Similar results were seen when the data were analysed by the criteria used to diagnose diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study provides evidence that progression rates differ by prediabetes definition, which has implications for the planning and implementation of diabetes prevention programmes. HbA1c 6.0-6.4% might identify people at a lower diabetes risk than other prediabetes definitions, but further research is needed.

Network meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to increase the uptake of smoke alarms

This study is the first known to use network meta-analysis to simultaneously evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to increase the prevalence of functioning smoke alarms in households with children. The authors identified 24 primary studies from a systematic review of reviews and of more recently published primary studies, of which 23 (17 randomized controlled trials and 6 nonrandomized comparative studies) were included in 1 of the following 2 network meta-analyses: 1) possession of a functioning alarm: interventions that were more "intensive" (i.e., included components providing equipment (with or without fitting), home inspection, or both, in addition to education) generally were more effective. The intervention containing all of the aforementioned components was identified as being the most likely to be the most effective (probability (best) = 0.66), with an odds ratio versus usual care of 7.15 (95% credible interval: 2.40, 22.73); 2) type of battery-powered alarms: ionization alarms with lithium batteries were most likely to be the best type for increasing functioning possession (probability (best) = 0.69). Smoke alarm promotion programs should ensure they provide the combination of interventions most likely to be effective.