Clinical phenotype classification to predict risk and optimize the management of patients with atrial fibrillation using the Atrial Fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway: a report from the COOL-AF registry

BACKGROUND

Phenotypic classification is a method of grouping patients with similar phenotypes.

AIM

We aimed to use phenotype classification based on a clustering process for risk stratification of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and second, to assess the benefit of the Atrial Fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway.

METHODS

Patients with AF were prospectively enrolled from 27 hospitals in Thailand from 2014 to 2017, and followed up every 6 months for 3 years. Cluster analysis was performed from 46 variables using the hierarchical clustering using the Ward minimum variance method. Outcomes were a composite of all-cause death, ischemic stroke/systemic embolism, acute myocardial infarction and heart failure.

RESULTS

A total of 3405 patients were enrolled (mean age 67.8 ± 11.3 years, 58.2% male). During the mean follow-up of 31.8 ± 8.7 months. Three clusters were identified: Cluster 1 had the highest risk followed by Cluster 3 and Cluster 2 with a hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of composite outcomes of 2.78 (2.25, 3.43), P < 0.001 for Cluster 1 and 1.99 (1.63, 2.42), P < 0.001 for Cluster 3 compared with Cluster 2. Management according to the ABC pathway was associated with reductions in adverse clinical outcomes especially those who belonged to Clusters 1 and 3 with HR and 95%CI of the composite outcome of 0.54 (0.40, 073), P < 0.001 for Cluster 1 and 0.49 (0.38, 0.63), P < 0.001 for Cluster 3.

CONCLUSION

Phenotypic classification helps in risk stratification and prognostication. Compliance with the ABC pathway was associated with improved clinical outcomes.

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of direct oral anticoagulants

INTRODUCTION

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have overtaken vitamin K antagonists to become the most widely used method of anticoagulation for most indications. Their stable and predictable pharmacokinetics combined with relatively simple dosing, and the absence of routine monitoring has made them an attractive proposition for healthcare providers. Despite the benefits of DOACs as a class, important differences exist between individual DOAC drugs in respect of their pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles with implications for dosing and reversal in cases of major bleeding.

AREAS COVERED

This review summarizes the state of knowledge relating to the pharmacokinetics of dabigatran (factor IIa/thrombin inhibitor) and apixaban, edoxaban and rivaroxaban (factor Xa) inhibitors. We focus on pharmacokinetic differences between the drugs which may have clinically significant implications.

EXPERT OPINION

Patient-centered care necessitates a careful consideration of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic differences between DOACs, and how these relate to individual patient circumstances. Prescribers should be aware of the potential for pharmacokinetic drug interactions with DOACs which may influence prescribing decisions in patients with multiple comorbidities. In order to give an appropriate dose of DOAC drugs, accurate estimation of renal function using the Cockcroft-Gault formula using actual body weight is necessary. An increasing body of evidence supports the use of DOACs in patients who are obese, and this is becoming more routine in clinical practice.

Effectiveness of out-patient based acute heart failure care: a pilot randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

Acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalisation is associated with 10% mortality. Outpatient based management (OPM) of AHF appeared effective in observational studies. We conducted a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing OPM with standard inpatient care (IPM).

METHODS

We randomised patients with AHF, considered to need IV diuretic treatment for ≥2 days, to IPM or OPM. We recorded all-cause mortality, and the number of days alive and out-of-hospital (DAOH). Quality of life, mental well-being and Hope scores were assessed. Mean NHS cost savings and 95% central range (CR) were calculated from bootstrap analysis. Follow-up: 60 days.

RESULTS

Eleven patients were randomised to IPM and 13 to OPM. There was no statistically significant difference in all-cause mortality during the index episode (1/11 vs 0/13) and up to 60 days follow-up (2/11 vs 2/13) [p = .86]. The OPM group accrued more DAOH {47 [36,51] vs 59 [41,60], p = .13}. Two patients randomised to IPM (vs 6 OPM) were readmitted [p = .31]. Hope scores increased more with OPM within 30 days but dropped to lower levels than IPM by 60 days. More out-patients had increased total well-being scores by 60 days (p = .04). OPM was associated with mean cost savings of £2658 (95% CR 460-4857) per patient.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with acute HF randomised to OPM accrued more days alive out of hospital (albeit not statistically significantly in this small pilot study). OPM is favoured by patients and carers and is associated with improved mental well-being and cost savings.

1208 FEASIBILITY OF A PHARMACIST-LED INTERVENTION FOR ATRIAL FIBRILLATION IN LONG-TERM CARE: THE PIVOTALL STUDY

Introduction

Older people in care homes with atrial fibrillation (AF) have complex health needs and would benefit from taking part in research. This study assessed the feasibility of pharmacist implementation of the Atrial Fibrillation Better Care (ABC: Anticoagulation; Better symptoms; Cardiovascular comorbidity management) pathway, and collection of an AF-specific, resident-centred outcome.

Methods

Older residents (aged ≥65 years) with AF were recruited from care homes within Liverpool and Sefton and randomised to receive the pharmacist intervention, or continue their existing treatment. Resident quality of life was assessed using the Atrial Fibrillation Effect on Quality of Life Questionnaire (AFEQT).

Results

Twenty-two care homes were approached about the study, and seven signed up to take part between 28 September 2020 and 29 April 2021. Time taken to recruit care homes ranged from 0 to 122 days. There were 83 residents identified as potentially eligible to take part, but after screening only 28 residents (34%) were invited. Overall, 21 residents were recruited. Eleven residents received the pharmacist intervention and three had ABC recommendations made to their GPs. Two out of four recommendations were implemented. The pharmacist administered the AFEQT questionnaire to 17 residents with capacity and completion rates were 94% and 93% at baseline and six-months, respectively. Residents found the questionnaire difficult; most were unable to distinguish if symptoms were AF-related (n=3), or did not know they had AF (n=8), and questions related to physical activity were not applicable to any of the residents who were bed bound (n=5) or had severely limited mobility (n=12).

Conclusion

There were procedural (encountered before research starts), system (encountered during research) and resident-specific barriers that impacted this study. Barriers need addressing before wider implementation, and AF-specific quality of life measures need to be developed and validated for care home residents. A detailed commentary has been submitted for publication.

Impact of ABC pathway adherence in high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation: an analysis from the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF long-term general registry

Background

The impact of Atrial Fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway adherence among high-risk subgroups of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), ie. those with chronic kidney disease (CKD), advanced age and/or prior thromboembolism remains unknown. We evaluated the impact of ABC pathway adherence on clinical outcomes in these high-risk AF patients.

Methods

The EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry is a prospective, observational registry from 250 centres across 27 European countries. High-risk patients were defined as those with either CKD (eGFR &lt;60 mL/min/1.73 m2), older age (≥75 years) and/or prior thromboembolism. The primary outcome was a composite event of all-cause death, any thromboembolism and acute coronary syndrome, evaluated according to ABC pathway adherence.

Results

A total of 6646 patients with AF were included (median age was 70 [IQR 61–77] years; 40.2% females). There were 3304 (54.2%) `high risk' patients with either CKD (n=1750), older age (n=2236) or prior thromboembolism (n=728). Among these there were 924 (28.0%) managed as adherent to ABC.

At 2-year follow-up, a total of 966 (14.5%) patients reported the primary outcome. The incidence of the primary outcome was significantly lower in high-risk patients managed as adherent to ABC pathway (IRR 0.53 [95% CI, 0.43–0.64]). Consistent results were obtained in the individual subgroups [Table]. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, ABC adherence in the high-risk cohort was independently associated with a lower risk of primary outcome (aHR 0.64 [95% CI, 0.51–0.80]), as well as in the CKD (aHR 0.51 [95% CI, 0.37–0.70]) and elderly subgroups (aHR 0.69 [95% CI, 0.53–0.90]). Overall, there was greater reduction in the risk of primary outcome as more ABC criteria were fulfilled, both in the overall high-risk patients, as well as in the individual subgroups [Figure].

Conclusion

In a large, contemporary European AF cohort there was a significant proportion of high-risk patients. Among these, a low prevalence of integrated care, as assessed by adherence to ABC pathway, was found. Nonetheless, a clinical management adherent to the ABC pathway was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of adverse outcomes, the benefits of which were more significant with increasing number of ABC criteria adherent.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Association between early rhythm control and the risk of dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation and prior history of stroke: a nationwide population-based study

Background

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who experienced stroke before are at high risk for dementia. Although early rhythm control in patients with AF reduces the risk of stroke, there is a lack of evidence on whether early rhythm control reduces the risk of developing dementia in patients with new-onset AF and a history of prior stroke.

Purpose

To compare the risk of dementia between early rhythm control therapy and usual care in patients with new-onset AF and a history of prior stroke

Methods

Using the Korean nationwide claims database, we identified patients who were newly diagnosed as AF and had a history of prior stroke. Patients with prevalent dementia were excluded. Patients who received rhythm control therapy, including antiarrhythmic drug, direct current cardioversion, or AF catheter ablation, within 1 year after incident AF were defined as the early rhythm control group, otherwise as the usual care group. The inverse probability of treatment weighting method was used to balance baseline characteristics between the two groups. The incidence of all dementia, Alzheimer dementia, and vascular dementia were evaluated during follow-up.

Results

A total of 41,370 patients were included (mean age, 70±11 years; mean CHA2DS2-VASc score 5.3±1.6; 43% female); 10,213 were in the early rhythm control group and 31,157 in the usual care group. All patients received oral anticoagulants. During a median 2.7 years of follow-up, 6414 patients developed incident dementia (incidence rate, 4.9 per 100 person-years). Compared to usual care, early rhythm control was associated with lower risks of all dementia, Alzheimer dementia, and vascular dementia (weighted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.825 [0.776–0.876], 0.831 [0.774–0.893], and 0.800 [0.702–0.913], respectively, all p&lt;0.001) (Figure 1). The beneficial effect of early rhythm control on the risk of dementia were consistent regardless of the characteristics of prior stroke, for example, recent stroke within 6-month from their enrollment, disabling stroke that required continuous rehabilitation therapy, and severe stroke causing intensive care unit admission.

Conclusion

Early rhythm control within 1 year after AF diagnosis might be beneficial to prevent dementia in patients with incident AF and a history of stroke. To prevent progression of further cognitive dysfunction, early rhythm control should be considered in these patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

mHealth based patient-centered self-management reduces the burden and episodes of atrial fibrillation

Background

There is a surging development of digital technologies for screening and diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF), nonetheless, how these digital technologies impact AF care remains unclear.

Objectives

The present study aimed to investigate the impact on AF episodes and arrhythmia burden of patient-centered self-management with using smart technologies, incorporating artificial intelligence (AI), wearable and mobile health (mHealth) technology for patient-centred self-management.

Methods

In this cohort study, we applied AI machine-learning (ML) model predicting AF prior to 4 hours of AF occurrence, while the timely monitoring of AF episodes with photoplethysmography (PPG) technology, and further confirmation of the diagnosis of AF with single-lead ECG, was based on wearable devices.

These have been developed in AF screening study (stage 1 pre-mAFA) of Mobile Health technology for improved screening and optimizing integrated care in atrial fibrillation (mAFA II programme), while mHealth supported integrated care of AF was validated to reduce clinical events (stage 2 mAFA II cluster randomized trial).

In this observational cohort, the subjects were in 2 groups: (i) subjects with monitored AF but without using mAFA (Group 1); (ii) subjects with monitored AF and using smart devices and mAFA for patient-centered self-management (Group 2).

Adult subjects freely downloaded the mAFA AF App, with compatible devices, and were included into the study from across China between October 26, 2018 and Dec 1, 2021.

Results

From 3499461 subjects involving in AF population screening, there were 5904 subjects in Group 1 (mean age 57 years, SD,15 years; 80.7%, male), while 2667 subjects in Group 2 (51, 15; 89.7% male).

The diagnosis of AF episodes was confirmed by single-lead ECG recordings, and decreased among those using mAFA in Group 2 (Confirmed AF: 602 in 1st quarter, 224 in 2nd quarter, 81 in 3rd quarter, 52 in 4th quarter) (all p value for trend&lt;0.001).

AF burden was significantly reduced over time (PPG: 26% on 1st month, 19% on 12th month; ECG: 3%, 0.7%, all p&lt;0.001), while the average probability of AF occurrences by AI ML model prediction was decreased among those using mAFA in Group 2 (65%, 57%, p&lt;0.001). The decreasing trend of AF burden over time was not seen in subjects with detected AF without mAFA (Group 1).

On multivariate analysis, AI ML model driven mAFA-based upstream risk factor control significantly reduced the changes in AF burden of both Δ 6 month (adjusted OR, 95% CI, 0.51,0.43–0.59) and Δ 12 month (0.39,0.32–0.47, all p&lt;0.001).

Conclusion

mHealth-AF care increased the adherence of using smart devices for AF detection. The incorporation of smart devices and AI tools into an AF clinical care pathway, effectively reduced AF burden and detected AF episodes, through appropriate rhythm control management and upstream risk factor control.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): National Natural Science Foundation of China

Management of atrial fibrillation by different medical specialties in the UK: AF-GEN-UK study

Background

The AF-GEN-UK study is an extension of the EURObservational Research Programme (EORP) Long-term Registry on patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in the UK (AF-GEN). The study aimed to establish a registry of the contemporary management of patients with AF by cardiologists, general practitioners, stroke, acute and emergency medicine physicians at baseline and 1-year of follow-up, to allow comparison between medical specialties.

Methods

Data on patients with AF diagnosed within the previous 12-months were collected using electronic case records from 101 sites, to permit comparison of patient characteristics and treatments between medical specialties. The impact of guideline-adherent oral anticoagulation (OAC) use on outcomes was assessed using Cox regression analysis.

Results

1595 patients (mean (SD) age 70.5 (11.2) years; 60.1% male; 97.4% white) with ECG-documented AF were included (recruited between June 2017 and June 2018) and followed-up for 1-year. Overall OAC prescription rates were 84.2% at baseline and 87.1% at 1-year follow-up, with NOACs predominating (74.9% at baseline and 79.2% at 1-year) Figure, mainly apixaban. Prescription of VKA was significantly higher in primary care, with NOAC prescription higher among stroke physicians. Guideline-adherent OAC (CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2) at baseline significantly reduced risk of composite endpoint of death and stroke at 1-year (adjusted hazard ratio 0.42; 95% confidence intervals 0.25–0.70). Rhythm control was evident in approximately one-quarter, with only 1.6% receiving catheter ablation. Most patients (56.6%) reported AF symptoms, but these were severe in only 17.9%. Symptomatic patients were mainly managed by cardiologists or acute/emergency medicine; among patients managed by stroke physicians, 81.5% were asymptomatic. Quality of life did not appear significantly impaired however there was a slight but significant improvement at follow-up (70.3% vs. 71.5%; p=0.044). Symptomatic patients reported poorer quality of life related to usual activities, mental health and overall quality of life.

Conclusion

Overall OAC use was high (&gt;80%) with NOAC prescription predominating but rates varied by specialty, with VKA prescription significantly higher in primary care. Guideline-adherent OAC therapy at baseline was associated with significant reduction in composite outcome of death and stroke at 1-year, regardless of specialty. Rhythm control management was only evident in around one-quarter despite AF symptoms being reported in 56.6%. This registry extends the knowledge of contemporary management of AF outside of cardiology by including other specialties and demonstrates good implementation of clinical guidelines for the management of AF, particularly in relation to stroke prevention.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): This project was supported by the BMS/Pfizer European Thrombosis Investigator Initiated Research Program

Anaemia and adverse outcomes in European patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the ESC-EHRA EORP atrial fibrillation general long-term registry

Background

Anaemia is an independent predictor of atrial fibrillation (AF) and a common comorbidity. Real world data on the impact of anaemia on clinical outcomes, and on the benefits and risks of oral anticoagulation (OAC) are limited.

Purpose

To investigate the association of different degrees of anaemia with adverse outcomes in a cohort of European patients with AF.

Methods

We analyzed patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry with baseline hemoglobin (Hb) values. Patients were stratified according to World Health Organization (WHO) definition of anaemia: (i) No anaemia (Hb≥12.0g/dl for women and Hb≥13.0g/dl for men), Mild anaemia (Hb 11.0–11.9g/dl for women and Hb 11.0–12.9g/dl for men), and moderate-severe anaemia (Hb ≤10.9 g/dl for both sexes). Primary outcomes were all-cause death, major adverse cardiac events (MACE, as the composite of any thromboembolism (TE)/acute coronary syndrome/cardiovascular death) and major bleeding.

Results

From the original 11,096 AF patients enrolled in the Registry, 7767 (69.9%) were included in the present analysis (median age 70 years, interquartile range [IQR] 62–77, males 58.3%, CHA2DS2VASc score median 3 [2–4], HAS-BLED median 2 [1–2]). A total of 5973 (76.9%) patients did not have anaemia, 1156 (14.9%) had mild anaemia, and 638 (8.2%) had moderate/severe anaemia. Patients with anaemia were more likely to have more comorbidities, frailty, permanent AF and polypharmacy (≥5 drugs). Overall, 318 (18.4%) patients with anaemia and an indication for anticoagulation [i.e. CHA2DS2-VASc≥1 (males), or ≥2 (females)] did not receive any OAC. After a median (IQR) follow-up of 730 (692–749) days, all-cause death was 10.5% and there were 841 (11.6%) MACE and 186 (2.5%) major bleeds. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed a higher cumulative risk for patients with moderate-severe anaemia for all the outcomes considered (Figure) (Log Rank tests, all p&lt;0.001). Adjusted Cox regression analyses revealed that patients with mild and moderate-severe anaemia had a higher risk for all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.71–2.40 and aHR 2.39, 95% CI 1.97–2.91, respectively), MACE (aHR 1.44, 95% CI 1.17–1.76 and aHR 1.64, 95% CI 1.30–2.07 respectively), and major bleeding (aHR 1.52, 05% CI 1.02–2.25 and aHR 3.73, 95% CI 2.59–5.37, respectively). Among patients with moderate-severe anaemia, use of OAC was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.46–0.89) and MACE (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.36–0.84), without a significant increased risk of major bleeding (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.43–1.52).

Conclusions

In a large contemporary cohort of European AF patients, almost 25% have concomitant anaemia which is associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality, MACE and major bleeding. Use of OAC was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality in patients with moderate-severe anaemia, without significant increased risk of major bleeding.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Since the start of EORP, the following companies have supported the programme: Abbott Vascular Int. (2011–2021), Amgen Cardiovascular (2009–2018), AstraZeneca (2014–2021), Bayer (2009–2018), Boehringer Ingelheim (2009–2019), Boston Scientific (2009–2012), The Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer Alliance (2011–2016), The Alliance Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH and Eli Lilly and Company (2011–2017), Edwards (2016–2019), Gedeon Richter Plc. (2014–2017), Menarini Int. Op. (2009–2012), MSD-Merck & Co. (2011–2014), Novartis Pharma AG (2014–2020), ResMed (2014–2016), Sanofi (2009–2011), SERVIER (2010–2021), and Vifor (2019–2022)

A nationwide cohort study on the impact of gestational diabetes on future cardiovascular events

Background

The link between hypertensive disease in pregnancy and future cardiovascular events is well established, as is the increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus after gestational diabetes (GDM). What is less well understood is the impact of GDM on future cardiovascular events. The literature is conflicting although suggestive that the risk of cardiovascular events with a history of GDM is 2 fold higher.

Purpose

Using the largest cohort to date and utilising robust data acquisition procedures and follow up we assessed the prognostic value of GDM for future cardiovascular events.

Methods

All female patients discharged from French hospitals in 2013 with at least 5 years of subsequent follow-up were identified. Those with a previous major adverse cardiovascular event, history of hypertensive disease, pre-existing diabetes or under the age of 18 years old were excluded. They were grouped depending on their history of GDM. After propensity score matching, patients with GDM were matched 1:1 with patients with no GDM. Hazard ratios for cardiovascular events during follow-up were adjusted by age at baseline.

Results

A total of, 1,738,101 women were included in the analysis, leaving 1,141,743 women (mean age 52.2, SD 19.7) once exclusion criteria were applied: 6998 (0.6%) had a history of GDM and the mean follow-up was 5.1 years (SD 1.3 years). Those with a history of GDM had a lower risk of new onset heart failure (HF) (hazard ratio [HR] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.45–0.98) and all-cause death (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.47–0.79). There was no significant difference in risk for myocardial infarction (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.38–2.03), ischaemic stroke (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.55–1.63), new onset atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.33–1.11), cardiovascular death (HR 1.25, 95% CI 0.47–3.36) and major cardiovascular events (i.e. in-hospital cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke or new-onset HF (MACE-HF)) (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.56–1.01).

Conclusions

In a large contemporary analysis of female patient seen in French hospitals and utilising a robust data set we present the largest population analysis of the association between GDM and future cardiovascular events. Those with a history of GDM do not have a higher risk of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, new onset AF, cardiovascular death or MACE-HF. Contrary to what is widely thought, a history of GDM confers a lower risk of new onset HF and all-cause death when compared to those women with no history of GDM.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

ABC adherence and impact of optimal medical therapy in heart failure patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Heart failure (HF) has close association with atrial fibrillation (AF). The ESC guideline recommended Atrial fibrillation Better care (ABC) pathway aims to reduce major cardiovascular adverse outcomes with an integrated care approach. Optimal medical treatment (OMT) represents the cornerstone in HF management.

Purpose

To investigate the variables affecting OMT treatment and its impact, in conjunction with ABC pathway adherence (vs non-adherence, ie.no ABC), in a large contemporary cohort of European AF patients with HF enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry.

Methods

OMT was defined as treatment with Angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACE-i)/ Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) with Beta-Blockers and/or Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), and compared to non-OMT adherence (“no OMT”). A logistic regression analysis explored factors associated with OMT adherence. We identified three patient groups: (i) HF with no OMT/no ABC; (ii) HF with OMT/no ABC; (iii) HF with OMT/ABC. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of all-cause death and major adverse cardiac events (MACE).

Results

Among the original 11096 patients enrolled, 9857 (88.8%) were included in this analysis. Among these, 3819 (38.7%) had HF. Compared to non HF patients, those with HF were older, more likely female, had more comorbidities and higher thromboembolic risk. OMT prevalence was 2228/3819 (58.3%), while ABC adherence was 23.3%.

On logistic multivariable regression, increasing age, higher BMI and higher frailty index were associated with OMT adherence, while male sex, anemia, renal disease and EHRA II–IV were inversely associated with OMT adherence. According to three HF groups, the rates of composite outcome progressively decreased (HF with no OMT/no ABC 26.4%; HF with OMT/no ABC 24%, HF with OMT/ABC 19%; p&lt;0.001). Kaplan Meier curve showed progressively lower cumulative risk for the composite outcome across the three groups with the lowest risk among HF patients with OMT/ABC (Log-rank: p=0.002) [Figure 1]. Adjusted Cox regression analysis showed that when compared to HF with no OMT/no ABC group, there was a progressively lower risk with OMT and/or ABC adherence (HF with OMT/no ABC: HR 0.81 [95% CI, 0.64–1.02]; HF with OMT/ABC: HR 0.68 [95% CI, 0.5–0.92]).

Conclusions

After two years of follow-up, in a large contemporary cohort of European AF patients with HF, OMT adherence was suboptimal, being influenced by several clinical factors, determining a low adherence to the ABC pathway. OMT alone showed a non-significant reduction in composite outcome events. Conversely HF patients managed with OMT in the context of ABC pathway adherence showed the best reduction in risk of adverse outcomes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Since the start of EORP, the following companies have supported the programme: Abbott Vascular Int. (2011–2021), Amgen Cardiovascular (2009–2018), AstraZeneca (2014–2021), Bayer (2009–2018), Boehringer Ingelheim (2009–2019), Boston Scientific (2009–2012), The Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer Alliance (2011–2016), The Alliance Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH and Eli Lilly and Company (2011–2017), Edwards (2016–2019), Gedeon Richter Plc. (2014–2017), Menarini Int. Op. (2009–2012), MSD-Merck & Co. (2011–2014), Novartis Pharma AG (2014–2020), ResMed (2014–2016), Sanofi (2009–2011), SERVIER (2010–2021), and Vifor (2019–2022). - I agree that this information can be anonymised and then used for statistical purposes only

Features of clinical complexity in european patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the ESC-EHRA EORP atrial fibrillation general long-term registry

Introduction

There is increasing concern regarding the burden of clinical complexity, beyond thromboembolic risk, in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Also, clinical complexity is heterogenous and entails differential impact on the patients' clinical course.

Purpose

To explore different complexity features in AF patients in determining differences in clinical management and outcomes.

Methods

We analyzed patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry. Features of complexity were analysed in the context of the following high-risk groups: i) only CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2; ii) history of stroke/bleeding; iii) chronic kidney disease (creatinine clearance &lt;60 mL/min, CKD); iv) frail (frailty index ≥0.25); v) ≥2 criteria. All these groups were compared to a low-risk group (CHA2DS2-VASc 0–1). We examined use of oral anticoagulant (OAC) and the risks of a composite outcome of all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events.

Results

A total of 10285 patients (mean [SD] age 68.8 [11.5] years, 4107 [39.9%] females) were included in the analysis. Of these, 3944 (38.3%) had only CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2; 412 (4.0%); history of stroke/bleeding; 1480 (14.4%) CKD; 1007 (9.8%) were frail; 1315 (12.8%) had ≥2 criteria; and 2127 (20.7%) were low-risk. After adjustment for age, sex, type of AF and EHRA score, compared to low-risk patients, all the other groups were associated with OAC prescription but with progressively lower odds ratio, while those ≥2 criteria which were least likely prescribed with OAC (Table 1).

After a mean (SD) 634.5 (223.0) days of follow-up, a total of 1432 events were recorded. After adjustment for confounders, Cox regression analysis found that all the complexity groups were associated with a higher risk of the composite outcome across the groups (Figure 1). In patients with available data about ABC (Atrial fibrillation Better Care) pathway adherence, the latter adherence was associated a significant incidence rate reduction (IRR) compared to non-ABC adherence in those with ≥2 criteria of clinical complexity (IRR 0.46, 95% CI 0.30–0.71), and in the CKD complexity group (IRR 0.57, 95% CI 0.41–0.81).

Conclusions

In a large contemporary cohort of European AF patients, features of clinical complexity affect differently prescriptions of OAC. All the subgroups of clinical complexity were associated with a higher risk of adverse outcomes, which were reduced by adherence to ABC pathway.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Since the start of EORP, the following companies have supported the programme: Abbott Vascular Int. (2011–2021), Amgen Cardiovascular (2009–2018), AstraZeneca (2014–2021), Bayer (2009–2018), Boehringer Ingelheim (2009–2019), Boston Scientific (2009–2012), The Bristol Myers Squibb and PfizerAlliance (2011–2016), The Alliance Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH and Eli Lilly and Company (2011–2017), Edwards (2016–2019), Gedeon Richter Plc. (2014–2017), Menarini Int. Op. (2009–2012), MSD-Merck & Co. (2011–2014), Novartis Pharma AG (2014–2020), ResMed (2014–2016), Sanofi (2009–2011), SERVIER (2010–2021), and Vifor (2019–2022).

Longitudinal changes in CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores are superior to baseline score values for predicting ischemic stroke and major bleeding in atrial fibrillation patients

Background

Stroke and bleeding risks in atrial fibrillation (AF) are often assessed at baseline, as a “one-off” evaluation. However, these baseline values are usually applied to predict outcomes many years later, and therefore lack the consideration that the risk is not static.

Purpose

Our aim was to investigate if dynamic changes of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED over time have an effect on the prediction of stroke and bleeding risks.

Methods

We included AF patients who were stable while taking vitamin K antagonists (INR 2.0–3.0) for 6 months attending a tertiary hospital (May 2007-December 2007). During 6-years of follow-up, ischemic strokes/transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), major bleeds, and all-cause deaths were recorded. CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED were recalculated every 2-years, and their predictive abilities were tested for outcomes in periods of 2-years (from year 0 to 2, year 2 to 4 and year 4 to 6).

Results

1361 patients (693 [50.9%] females, median age 76 [IQR 71–81] years, mean CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED of 4.0±1.7 and 2.9±1.2, respectively) were included. The predictive ability for ischemic stroke/TIA of the baseline CHA2DS2-VASc for 2-years events was 0.662 (0.637–0.688, p&lt;0.001). Compared to the baseline CHA2DS2-VASc, the CHA2DS2-VASc re-calculated at 2-years presented significantly higher predictive ability for ischemic stroke/TIA during the period 2–4 years (c-indexes: 0.701 [0.675–0.727] vs. 0.604 [0.576–0.631], p&lt;0.001). Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) showed an improvement in sensitivity of 0.014 (p&lt;0.001) and a better reclassification (0.677, p&lt;0.001). Similarly, the CHA2DS2-VASc re-calculated at 4-years yielded significantly better predictive performance for ischemic stroke/TIA during the period 4–6 years in comparison to the baseline CHA2DS2-VASc (c-indexes: 0.761 [0.734–0.786] vs. 0.682 [0.653–0.710], p=0.026). Again, IDI reported an improvement (IDI = 0.030, p&lt;0.001) and there was an important enhance of the reclassification ability (NRI = 0.757, p&lt;0.001).

The c-index of the baseline HAS-BLED for events at 2-years was 0.744 (0.720–0.767, p&lt;0.001). At 2-years, the re-calculated HAS-BLED score showed higher predictive ability compared to the baseline HAS-BLED during the period 2–4 year (c-indexes: 0.709 [0.680–0.738] vs. 0.663 [0.632–0.693], p=0.003). Accordingly, IDI and NRI demonstrated significant improvements for the re-calculated HAS-BLED compared to baseline (IDI = 0.016, p=0.001; NRI = 0.444, p&lt;0.001). For major bleeding during the period 4–6 years, the c-index of the HAS-BLED score re-calculated at 4-years was non-significantly different to baseline HAS-BLED at baseline (0.631 [0.601–0.660] vs. 0.623 [0.593–0.652], p=0.751), although showed a slight enhance in sensitivity (IDI = 0.009, p=0.018).

Conclusions

In AF patients, stroke and bleeding risks are dynamic and change over time. The CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores should be regularly reassessed.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness, through the Instituto de Salud Carlos III after independent peer review (research grant: PI17/01375 co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund)

Mechanistic modelling of Virchows triad to assess thrombogenicity and stroke risk in atrial fibrillation patients

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is responsible for almost one third of all strokes, with the left atrial appendage (LAA) being the primary thromboembolic source due to localised stimulation of prothrombotic mechanisms; blood stasis, hypercoagulability and endothelial damage, known as Virchow's triad.

Aim

We propose an in-silico modelling pipeline that leverages clinical imaging data to mechanistically assess patient thrombogenicity for all aspects of Virchow's triad to improve the prediction and prevention of AF-related stroke.

Methods

Two AF patients undergoing Cine magnetic resonance imaging (sinus rhythm (SR) N=1 or AF N=1 during imaging) were selected for 3D left atrial (LA) modelling with patient-specific myocardial deformation prescribed from image-derived wall motion. Blood stasis was quantified by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of 5 cardiac cycles [1]. Generation of three key coagulation proteins; thrombin, fibrinogen and fibrin, were modelled to represent thrombus growth and hypercoagulability [2]. Regions prone to thrombogenesis by endothelial damage were identified by the oscillatory shear index (OSI), time averaged wall shear stress (TAWSS) and endothelial cell activation potential (ECAP) metrics in the LAA [3].

Results

Patient-specific LA simulations enabled the assessment of differences between SR and AF conditions, quantified as numerical characteristics of each aspect of Virchow's triad.

In SR, blood flow velocities were in the range 0–2.6 m/s with mean of 0.85 m/s in the LA cavity, while AF had a range between 0–1.6 m/s with mean of 0.55 m/s. The peak and mean LAA velocities in SR were 0.85 m/s and 0.14 m/s, while AF had a peak LAA velocity of 0.32 m/s and mean of 0.09 m/s, showing a 38% decrease during AF.

The thrombin concentration reached its steady state at 1.26 mmol/m3 in the AF case after 4.7 seconds, while thrombin was washed away from the initial injury site in SR. After 5 cardiac cycles of thrombus growth dynamics, the peak fibrin concentration in the LAA was 1.3 mmol/m3 in SR and 3.8 mmol/m3 in AF, with the thrombus area in AF being 40% larger. Fibrinogen concentration decreased at a rate equal to fibrin generation in both SR and AF solely in the area of thrombus formation.

ECAP in the LAA had peak values of 2.9 in SR and 3.7 in AF, with the location at highest risk of thrombogenesis above the LAA entrance. LAA OSI had an average value of 0.45 in AF versus 0.36 in SR, showing a 26% increase. Similarly, the TAWSS was 3.5x10–3 Pa on average over the LAA in AF compared to 1.4x10–3 Pa in SR.

Conclusions

Patient-specific LA models combining these three quantitative characteristics can be used to predict the higher thrombogenic risk in AF. After further validation, this novel approach for quantitative assessment of AF patient thrombogenicity based on modelling all factors in Virchow's triad can personalise and improve management of AF patients with a risk of stroke.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

Bleeding risk prediction in a large cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation and cancer: a nationwide cohort study

Introduction

The association between cancer types and specific bleeding events in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients has been scarcely investigated. Also, the performance of bleeding risk scores in this high-risk subgroup of patients is unclear.

Purpose

We investigated the rate of intracranial haemorrhage (ICH), major (MB) and gastrointestinal bleeding (GB) according to cancer types in AF patients. We also tested the predictive value of HAS-BLED, ATRIA and ORBIT bleeding risk scores.

Methods

Observational retrospective cohort study including 399,344 AF patients with cancer (mean age 77.9±10.2 years; 63.2% men). MB was defined according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) definitions.

Results

The highest ICH rates were found in leukaemia (1.89%/year), myeloma (1.52%/year), lymphoma and liver (1.45%/year) and pancreas cancer (1.41%/year). GBs were highest in liver (7.54%/year), pancreas (7.42%/year) and gastric (5.51%/year). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that an ORBIT score ≥4 had the highest predictivity for MBs (AUC 0.805) followed by HAS-BLED and ATRIA (AUC 0.716 and 0.700, respectively). HAS-BLED and ORBIT performed best for ICH (AUC 0.744 and 0.742, respectively), better than ATRIA (AUC 0.635). For GB, ORBIT ≥4 had the highest predictivity (AUC 0.756), followed by the HAS-BLED (AUC 0.702) and ATRIA (AUC 0.662).

Conclusions

Some cancer types carry a greater bleeding risk in AF patients. The identification and management of modifiable bleeding risk factors is crucial in these patients, as well as to flag up high bleeding risk patients for early review and follow-up

Conclusions

Some cancer types carry a greater bleeding risk in AF patients. The identification and management of modifiable bleeding risk factors is crucial in these patients, as well as to flag up high bleeding risk patients for early review and follow-up.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Impact of the atrial fibrillation better care pathway in clinically complex patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry

Background

Clinical complexity is increasingly prevalent among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The “Atrial fibrillation Better Care” (ABC) pathway approach has been proposed to streamline a more holistic and integrated approach to AF care; however, there are limited data on its usefulness among clinically complex patients. We analyzed the impact of the ABC pathway in a contemporary cohort of clinically complex AF patients.

Methods

From the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry, we analyzed clinically complex AF patients, defined as the presence of frailty (according to a 40-items Frailty Index), multimorbidity and/or polypharmacy. A K-medoids cluster analysis was performed to identify different groups of clinical complexity. The impact of an ABC-adherent approach on the risk of all-cause death, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and the composite outcome of all-cause death and MACE was analyzed through Cox-regression analyses, and delay of event (DoE) analyses; number needed to treat (NNT) was also estimated at 1 year of follow-up.

Results

Among 9,966 AF patients, 8,289 (92.3%) were clinically complex. Risk of all outcomes was higher among clinically complex patient. Adherence to the ABC pathway in the clinically complex group reduced the risk of all-cause death (adjusted HR [aHR]: 0.71, 95% CI 0.57–0.89), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs, aHR: 0.68, 95% CI 0.53–0.87) and composite outcome (aHR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.57–0.84). Using cluster analysis, we identified a high clinical complexity group of AF patients. Adherence to the ABC pathway was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of death (aHR: 0.73, 95% CI 0.55–0.96) and composite outcome (aHR: 0.69, 95% CI 0.57–0.84) in the high-complexity cluster; similar trends were observed for MACEs. In DoE analyses, an ABC-adherent approach resulted in significant gains in event-free survival for all-cause death (Figure 1), MACEs, and composite outcome in clinically complex patients. Based on absolute risk reduction at 1 year of follow-up, the NNTs for ABC pathway adherence was 24 for all-cause death, 31 for MACEs and 20 for the composite outcome.

Conclusions

An ABC-adherent approach reduces the risk of major outcomes in clinically complex AF patients. Ensuring adherence to the ABC pathway is essential to improve clinical outcomes amongst clinically complex AF patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Since the start of EORP, several companies have supported the programme with unrestricted grants.

Nationwide trends and projections of peripheral arterial disease among Danish adults

Background

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a critical clinical and public health issue with a prevalence of &gt;10% worldwide among adults ≥50 years. Whether this occurrence has been increasing, decreasing or stable over time remains a matter of debate as contemporary population data are sparse and conflicting.

Purpose

To quantify changes in PAD incidence, prevalence, and mortality and provide projections for future prevalence development through 2050.

Methods

We conducted nationwide analyses of the entire Danish population aged ≥40 years from 2000 through 2018 to assess national trends in diagnosed PAD incidence, prevalence, and all-cause mortality, overall and by sex and age-groups. PAD was identified by primary or secondary in-hospital or outpatient clinic diagnoses, and incident cases comprised individuals whose preceding complete hospital history, potentially back to 1977, lacked a PAD diagnosis. Based on observed trends in incidence and PAD mortality between 2000–2018, and the projected future annual age distribution and population mortality obtained from Statistics Denmark, we projected the future prevalence of PAD through 2050.

Results

The population of Denmark aged 40–99 years between 2000 and 2018 included 4,508,932 individuals, among whom we identified 123,479 incident diagnoses of PAD during 51,4 million person-years of follow-up. The age- and sex-standardized incidence of PAD decreased from 2.70 per 1,000 person-years in 2000 to 1.79 in 2018 (incidence rate ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65–0.70) (Figure 1). The incidence was approximately 20% higher in men than in women but the accentuation was similarly in both sexes. Concurrently, the overall prevalence of PAD in the Danish adult population increased from 0.8% to 1.7% (prevalence ratio 2.12, 95% CI 2.09–2.15). The prevalence rose considerably in the oldest age groups; in 2018 the prevalence was 5.8% in women and 8.0% in men aged ≥80 years. The age- and sex-standardized annual mortality among patients with PAD decreased from 9.9% in 2000 to 7.0% in 2018, representing a mortality ratio of 0.82 (95% CI 0.75–0.91). Projections of PAD prevalence demonstrated that the rise in the national prevalence of PAD will continue until around 2030 followed by a decline towards 2050 (Figure 2). Among individuals aged ≥80 years, the prevalence was projected to reach a maximum of 8.9% for men vs. 6.5% for women before beginning to decline.

Conclusion

Within an unselected nationwide population, the incidence and all-cause mortality of PAD has declined over the last two decades. Concurrently, the prevalence increased, and this increasing trend was projected continue over the coming decade before reaching a breaking point around 2030, underscoring the continued need for health service to manage PAD and its complications in years to come.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Karen Elise Jensen's Foundation

Changes in incidences of clinical outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: a nationwide study since 2010

Background and aims

The integrated approach for management of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been proposed in recent years for reducing AF-related mortality, morbidity, and hospitalizations. We evaluated the trends in the risk of ischemic stroke, intracranial bleeding, hospitalization for heart failure, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause death among newly diagnosed patients with AF in a nationwide cohort study since 2010.

Methods

This French longitudinal cohort study was based on the national hospitalization database covering hospital care from for the entire population. All adults hospitalized in French hospitals with AF from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2018, were identified. Among them, 1,938,269 newly diagnosed patients with AF who survived 60 days after AF was diagnosed were included in the analysis. The 1-year risk of ischemic stroke, intracranial bleeding, and mortality of patients with AF diagnosed in each year were compared to those diagnosed in 2010 using the logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, prior stroke, vascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hyperlipidemia, inflammatory diseases, cancer, abnormal renal function, abnormal liver function, anemia, and history of bleeding.

Results

The age of newly diagnosed patients with AF was stable from 77.1±11.8 years in 2010 to 76.9±12.6 years in 2018. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores of patients with incident AF showed a significant increasing trend for each year (from 3.32 in 2010 to 3.54 in 2018, p&lt;0.001).

Temporal trends for the risk of adverse events at 1-year follow-up in newly diagnosed patients with AF compared to 2010 are shown in the Figure 1. Compared with 2010, the risk of ischemic stroke was significantly lower in all subsequent years from 2011 to 2018 (adjusted hazard ratios [HR] 0.940 to 0.854; p ranging from p=0.001 to &lt;0.0001). The risk of major bleeding was significantly lower in all subsequent years after 2010 (adjusted HRs 0.965 to 0.621; p ranging from p=0.002 to &lt;0.0001). By contrast, the risk of intracranial bleeding was not different after 2010 (adjusted HRs 1.032 to 0.996; all p&gt;0.50). The risk of hospitalization for heart failure was significantly lower in all subsequent years after 2010 (adjusted HRs 0.927 to 0.820; all p&lt;0.0001). Finally, the risk of cardiovascular mortality and all-cause death were also significantly lower after 2010 (adjusted HRs 0.952 to 0.690; p ranging from p=0.001 to &lt;0.0001 and adjusted HRs 0.948 to 0.715; all p&lt;0.0001 respectively) (Figure 2).

Conclusion

We observed a constant reduction in the risk of ischemic stroke, major bleeding, hospitalization for HF, cardiovascular death and all-cause death in AF patients seen in French hospitals in recent years. This may be related to an increasing use of oral anticoagulants (including NOACs) and by a more holistic and integrated approach to AF management that has been proposed in the more recent guidelines.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

External validation of the simple NULL-PLEASE clinical score in predicting outcomes in men and women with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

Background

The NULL-PLEASE score (Nonshockable rhythm, Unwitnessed arrest, Long no-flow or Long low-flow period, blood pH &lt;7.2, Lactate &gt;7.0 mmol/L, End-stage renal disease on dialysis, Age ≥85 years, Still resuscitation, and Extracardiac cause) was developed to help identify patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) who are unlikely to survive. Although survival after OHCA differs between sexes, the performance of the NULL-PLEASE score according to sex has not been tested previously.

Purpose

To validate the NULL-PLEASE score separately in men and women in a nationwide setting.

Methods

Using Danish nationwide registry data from 2001–2019, we retrospectively identified male and female OHCA survivors with return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) or ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation at hospital arrival. The primary outcome was 1-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were defined as 30-day mortality and the combination of 1-year mortality or anoxic brain damage. Logistic regression with a NULL-PLEASE score of 0 as reference was used for outcome risk estimation. The predictive ability of the score was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUCROC) curves.

Results

A total of 2,601 men (median age 67 years (interquartile range (IQR) 56–76 years), and 1,280 women (median age 69 years (IQR 58–79 years) were included. One-day mortality was 31% in men and 42% in women; 30-day mortality was 56% and 71% in men and women, respectively; and 63% of men and 78% of women experienced the combined outcome. For patients with a NULL-PLEASE score ≥9, absolute risks were: 1-day mortality: 82.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75.6–88.4%) for men and 79.1% (95% CI: 71.3–86.8%) for women; 30-day mortality: 98.6% (95% CI: 96.6–100.0) for men and 97.1% (95% CI: 94.0–100.0%) for women; and the combined outcome: 99.3% (95% CI: 97.9–100.0%) for men and 97.1% (95% CI: 94.0–100.0%) for women. AUCROC values for 1-day mortality were 0.827 (95% CI: 0.811–0.844) for men and 0.736 (95% CI: 0.710–0.763) for women. Results were similar for 30-day mortality and for the combined outcome. ROC curves for all outcomes are shown in Figure 1 (men) and Figure 2 (women). For a NULL-PLEASE score cut-point ≥3 to predict 1-day mortality, the positive predictive value was 91.8% in men and 91.1% in women, with a sensitivity of detecting patients who die of 47.3% in men and 51.8% in women. The corresponding negative predictive value for surviving more than 1 day was 54.6% in men and 37.7% in women, and the specificity of detecting patients who survive was 93.7% in men and 85.3% in women.

Conclusions

In a nationwide OHCA-cohort, the NULL-PLEASE score consistently appeared to perform better in men than in women for all outcomes. Nevertheless, its predictive ability was high among both sexes. Sex-specific differences should not be overlooked in clinical decision-making in patients surviving OHCA.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): The Danish Heart FoundationThe Danish Foundation TrygFonden

Factors associated with progression of atrial fibrillation and impact on all-cause mortality: an ancillary analysis from the ESC-EHRA EURObservational Research Programme in Atrial Fibrillation General

Background

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) often shows a natural progression towards more sustained forms of the arrhythmia. Real-world data on clinical factors associated to AF progression and its impact on long-term outcome are limited.

Purpose

To investigate the factors associated with progression of AF and its impact on all-cause mortality in a contemporary cohort of European AF patients

Methods

We analyzed patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry. Patients with paroxysmal AF at baseline or first detected AF who underwent successful cardioversion were included. Patients with known rhythm status at 1-year were then stratified into two groups: (i) No AF progression and (ii) AF progression (as defined by transition to persistent or permanent AF). All-cause mortality at 2-year of follow-up was the primary outcome of the analysis.

Results

A total of 2688 patients were included (median age 67 years, interquartile range [IQR] 60–75, females 44.7%, CHA2DS2VASc score median 3 [1–4], HASBLED median 1 [1–2]). After 1-year of follow-up 2094 (77.9%) patients showed no AF progression while 594 (22.1%) developed AF progression. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, no physical activity (odds ratio [OR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.78), valvular heart disease (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.23–2.15), left atrium diameter (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05) and left ventricular ejection fraction (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97–1.00) were independently associated with AF progression at 1-year. At the end of 2-year of follow-up, death occurred in 80/2621 (3.1%) patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a lower cumulative survival from all-cause mortality in patients with AF progression compared to non-progression AF patients (Log Rank p=0.01, Figure 1). On multivariable Cox regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, heart failure, coronary artery disease, hypertensions, diabetes mellitus, previous thromboembolic events, peripheral artery disease, chronic kidney disease and use of oral anticoagulants, patients with AF progression had an independently higher risk for all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.77, 95% CI 1.09–2.89).

Conclusions

In a contemporary cohort of European AF patients, a substantial number of patients progressed to sustained AF within 1 year. Clinical factors related to atrial structural remodeling were independently associated with arrhythmia progression. AF progression was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Since the start of EORP, the following companies have supported the programme: Abbott Vascular Int. (2011–2021), Amgen Cardiovascular (2009–2018), AstraZeneca (2014–2021), Bayer (2009–2018), Boehringer Ingelheim (2009–2019), Boston Scientific (2009–2012), The Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer Alliance (2011–2016), The Alliance Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH and Eli Lilly and Company (2011–2017), Edwards (2016–2019), Gedeon Richter Plc. (2014–2017), Menarini Int. Op. (2009–2012), MSD-Merck & Co. (2011–2014), Novartis Pharma AG (2014–2020), ResMed (2014–2016), Sanofi (2009–2011), SERVIER (2010–2021), and Vifor (2019–2022).

Heart failure and cardiovascular outcomes in european patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Heart failure (HF) has an intimate bidirectional association with atrial fibrillation (AF). Few data are available about the impact of HF phenotypes (HF with preserved ejection fraction, HFpEF; HF with mildly reduced ejection fraction, HFmrEF; HF with reduced ejection fraction, HFrEF) as predictors for adverse outcomes in AF patients.

Purpose

To investigate the association of HFpEF, HFmrEF and HFrEF with adverse outcomes in a large contemporary cohort of European AF patients and evaluate the effect of EF throughout its entire spectrum.

Methods

We analyzed patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry. HF patients were categorized according the three phenotypes and compared to those without HF (“non HF”). Main outcome was a composite outcome of all-cause death and major adverse cardiac events (MACE).

Results

Among the original 11,096 AF patients enrolled, 9857 (88.8%) were included in this analysis (median age 71 years, interquartile range [IQR 63–77], 40.1% females) with median EF 55% [IQR 45–61%] and CHA2DS2-VASc 3 [2–4]). In this cohort, 5935 (60.2%) were non HF patients, and 3240 (32.9%) had HF patients (with HF status and EF values data available). Accordingly, 1662 (51.2%) were categorized as HFpEF; 523 (14.1%) were HFmrEF; and 1235 (35.1%) were HFrEF.

After a median follow-up of 731 days [IQR 690–748], the composite outcome was significantly higher throughout HF categories (HFpEF 19.0%, HFmrEF 21.8% and HFrEF 29.6%, compared to non HF 10.7%; p&lt;0.001). In a fully adjusted multivariate Cox regression, HF phenotypes were associated with a progressively higher risk for the composite outcome (HFpEF HR 1.45 [95% CI, 1.23–1.70]; HFmrEF HR 1.82 [95% CI, 1.45–2.3]; HFrEF HR 2.51 [95% CI, 2.14–2.95], when compared to non HF patients). Considering EF in its continuous spectrum, an adjusted regression curve analysis found that progressively lower EF was associated with a progressively higher risk for the composite outcome, both in HF and overall AF patients (Figure 1, left and right panel, respectively).

Conclusions

Over a two-years follow-up, in a large contemporary cohort of European AF patients, HF phenotypes were associated with a progressively higher risk for adverse outcomes. Lower EF values increased the risk of adverse outcomes both in HF patients and overall AF patients, irrespective of HF phenotype status.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Since the start of EORP, the following companies have supported the programme: Abbott Vascular Int. (2011–2021), Amgen Cardiovascular (2009–2018), AstraZeneca (2014–2021), Bayer (2009–2018), Boehringer Ingelheim (2009–2019), Boston Scientific (2009–2012), The Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer Alliance (2011–2016), The Alliance Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH and Eli Lilly and Company (2011–2017), Edwards (2016–2019), Gedeon Richter Plc. (2014–2017), Menarini Int. Op. (2009–2012), MSD-Merck & Co. (2011–2014), Novartis Pharma AG (2014–2020), ResMed (2014–2016), Sanofi (2009–2011), SERVIER (2010–2021), and Vifor (2019–2022).

Multimorbidity, frailty and malnutrition: moving beyond traditional risk factors for risk assessment in atrial fibrillation. The Murcia Atrial Fibrillation Project II

Background

The management of atrial fibrillation (AF) has evolved over the last decade with a more towards a more multidisciplinary, integrated and holistic approach. However, several conditions that may influence the prognosis and management of AF patients are still under-recognised.

Purpose

Our aim was to investigate if multimorbidity, frailty and malnutrition are associated with the risk of worse clinical outcomes in patients with recent diagnosis of AF starting oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy.

Methods

Prospective cohort study including outpatients newly diagnosed with AF starting vitamin K antagonist (VKA) therapy from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2018. Morbidity was assessed with the crude number of comorbidities. Frailty was assessed with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Nutrition status was assessed with the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score. During 2-years of follow-up, we recorded all ischemic strokes/transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), major bleeds (according to the 2005 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria), and all-cause deaths.

Results

We included 1050 patients (540 [51.4%] females, median age 77 [IQR 70–83] years), with median CHA2DS2-VASc of 4 [IQR 3–5] and median HAS-BLED of 2 [IQR 2–3]. The median crude number of comorbidities was 3 [IQR 2–5], whereas the median CFS and CONUT score were 2 [IQR 2–3] and 2 [IQR 1–3], respectively. The crude number of comorbidities, CFS and CONUT score demonstrated a significant positive correlation (p&lt;0.001 for all correlations). After adjusting for several risk factors (age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, previous stroke, vascular disease, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, dyslipidemia, sleep apnoea, hepatic disease, and cancer), the CFS was independently associated with major bleeding (adjusted HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07–1.45) and all-cause mortality (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09–1.32). The crude number of comorbidities (aHR 1.30, 95% CI 1.14–1.49) was also associated with major bleeding, and the CONUT score (aHR 1.25, 95% CI 1.15–1.35) was associated with all-cause mortality. Any frailty degree (i.e CFS ≥5) was associated with a 3-fold higher risk of major bleeding (aHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.67–5.52) and a 2-fold higher risk of death (aHR 2.04, 95% CI 1.39–3.01), whereas the moderate/severe malnutrition (i.e. CONUT ≥5) was an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke/TIA and (aHR 2.25, 95% CI 1.11–4.56) and death (aHR 3.21, 95% CI 2.14–4.83) (Figures 1 and 2).

Conclusions

Frailty and malnutrition are important risk factors for bleeding, stroke and mortality in AF. The frailty degree and nutritional status should be assessed in all AF patients in order to address them properly and provide a truly integrated management.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness, through the Instituto de Salud Carlos III after independent peer review (research grant: PI17/01375 co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund)

Role of multiple- and single-pregnancy complications with incident cardiovascular diseases: a nationwide data linkage study in Wales

Background

Prior evidence has suggested that pregnancy complications are associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease in women. However, associations between coexisting multiple pregnancy complications and incident cardiovascular disease remains unclear.

Purpose

To examine the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, atrial fibrillation or heart failure among women after their first pregnancy with a history of multiple pregnancy complications and women with a history of single-pregnancy complications, compared to women without pregnancy complications.

Methods

This retrospective cohort included women aged 16–45 years who had their first pregnancy between 2000 and 2018 in Wales using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Data were extracted from various sources such as Office for National Statistics (ONS) birth and death extracts, hospital admission, outpatient, emergency department and General Practice data sources, and pregnancy related data such as maternal indicators and national community child health. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate the association between multiple or specific single pregnancy complications and incidence of cardiovascular disease.

Results

A total of 298,515 women were included in the study, of which 64,794 (21.7%) women experienced a single pregnancy complication, and 10,038 (3.38%) women experienced more than one complication during their first pregnancy. During the a median of 9.7 years of follow-up, 2,484 women developed incident cardiovascular disease. IHD had the highest incidence rate among women with multiple pregnancy complications at 9.06 (7.36–11.15) per 10,000 person-years, compared to 4.24 (3.77–4.78) among women with a single pregnancy complication and 2.40 (2.20–2.61) among women without any pregnancy complications. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, compared to no previous pregnancy complications, a history of multiple pregnancy complications was associated with a higher risk of heart failure [hazard ratio (HR) 3.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.34–4.32)], IHD [HR 2.88 (95% CI 2.27–3.67)], stroke [HR 2.03 (95% CI 1.55–2.65)] and atrial fibrillation [HR 1.80 (95% CI 1.20–2.72)]. There was also a consistent trend for a higher risk of all outcomes in women with a history of single-pregnancy complications compared to women without complications during the first pregnancy (Figure 1).

Conclusion

This population-scale study used anonymised individual-level linked data from multiple routinely collected data sources. In almost 300,000 women with a previous pregnancy, multiple pregnancy complications were associated with a higher risk of incident cardiovascular disease, including heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, stroke and atrial fibrillation. Women who experience multiple pregnancy complications may benefit from targeted intervention strategies to reduce their risk of incident cardiovascular disease.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Saudi Arabia governmental PhD studentship

Relationship between systolic blood pressure and renal function on clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the AF-GEN-UK registry

Background

European guidelines on AF management recommend a systolic blood pressure (SBP) target of 120–129 mmHg as this level is associated with the lowest risk of poor outcomes. Elevated blood pressure and AF both negatively affect renal function, but the interactions between SBP and renal function in patients with AF remains unclear. In the UK extension of the EURObservational Research Programme (EORP) Long-term Registry of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) [AF-GEN-UK study], we assessed the combined impact of BP levels and renal (dys)function on mortality, thromboembolic and haemorrhagic events.

Methods

1580 patients (60.1% males, mean (SD) age 70.6 (11.2) years) from the AF-GEN-UK registry had SBP available at baseline and were stratified into groups based on SBP: 120–129 mmHg (reference group, n=289), &lt;100 mmHg (n=165), 110–119 mmHg, (n=254), 130–139 mmHg (n=321), 140–159 mmHg (n=385), and ≥160 mmHg (n=166). Impact of SBP, renal function and their interaction on 1-year outcomes were assessed using Cox regression analysis, adjusted for age, oral anticoagulation (OAC) use and CHA2DS2-VASc score. SBP groups were compared by ANOVA (continuous data) and Chi-square test (categories) with two tailed p&lt;0.05 deemed significant (STATA Corp, version 13).

Results

Overall OAC use was 84% and was similar between all SBP groups. Renal function (eGFR), was preserved across SBP groups; those with SBP 110–119 mmHg had the lowest level. Prevalence of heart failure was highest in those with SBP &lt;110 mmHg. Patients with uncontrolled SBP (&gt;140 mmHg) were older, more likely female and higher rates of hypertension, with correspondingly higher CHA2DS2VASc scores. SBP &lt;100 mmHg (Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.36; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.20–4.64) and lower eGFR (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.98–0.996) were associated with all cause-death in univariate analyses.

Adjusted Cox regression revealed that SBP &lt;100 mmHg and OAC use were independent predictors of all-cause death (Table). No interaction between BP groups and eGFR was evident. OAC use (aHR 0.31; 95% CI 0.11–0.92) was associated with a reduced risk of thromboembolic events.

Conclusion

In anticoagulated patients with AF, SBP &lt;110 mmHg was independently predicted of all-cause death, with no interaction with kidney function. No independent association of SBP groups with haemorrhagic and thromboembolic events was evident. OAC therapy was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause death and thromboembolic events.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): This project was supported by the BMS/Pfizer European Thrombosis Investigator Initiated Research Program

Should we initiate oral anticoagulants for patients with atrial fibrillation staying well without oral anticoagulants for years?

Background

Although non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) were more and more commonly prescribed for stroke prevention for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), underuse of OACs is still not uncommon. Data about the initiations of OACs in AF patients who did not experience ischemic stroke without any OACs for years since incident AF was diagnosed were limited. We aimed to investigate the associations between the initiations of warfarin or NOACs and clinical outcomes among this population.

Methods

From January 1st, 2007 to December 31st, 2010, a total of 167,176 newly-diagnosed AF patients aged ≥20 years were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database as the study population. Among the study population, 32,917 patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score &gt;1 for males or &gt;2 for females who did not receive warfarin or NOACs and survived for at least 90 days after June 1st, 2015 were defined as the “original non-OAC cohort”. These patients were then categorized into 3 groups according to the stroke prevention strategies they received after June 1st, 2015; that is, without OACs (n=31,195), warfarin (n=230) and NOACs (n=1,492).

Results

Compared to patients staying on non-OACs, the risk of ischemic stroke was lower for patients who initiated NOACs (aHR 0.867; p=0.043). The risk of all-cause mortality was lower for patients who started to receive warfarin (aHR 0.876; p=0.036) or NOACs (aHR 0.798; p=0.047). The composite risk of ischemic stroke or major bleeding was also lower for patients who initiated warfarin (0.849; p&lt;0.001) or NOACs (0.789; p&lt;0.001) (Figure 1). Compared to warfarin, NOACs use was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke (aHR 0.819; p&lt;0.001), ischemic stroke or intracranial hemorrhage (aHR 0.927; p=0.042) or ischemic stroke or major bleeding (aHR 0.912; p&lt;0.001).

Conclusions

Initiations of OACs, especially NOACs, should still be considered for AF patients who stayed well without OACs for years since incident AF was diagnosed.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Fish oil supplements increase atrial fibrillation risk in healthy individuals: a population-based cohort study and Mendelian randomization analysis

Background

There is a paucity of information on the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in healthy individuals taking fish oil supplements.

Purpose

We aimed to investigate the epidemiologic and causal relationships between fish oil supplement intake and the long-term risk of AF.

Methods

From the population-based UK Biobank, we selected healthy individuals without a history of AF, other cardiac arrhythmias, or cardiovascular diseases, who were not taking lipid-lowering medications or dietary supplements other than fish oil. The 10-year risk of AF in Fish-Oil-Users vs. Non-Users was evaluated in the total population and propensity-score matched cohort. The causal relationship between n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and AF was evaluated using a two-sample summary-level Mendelian randomization analysis with fixed effects robust inverse-variance weighted method, using genetic instruments from previous studies genome-wide association studies for n-3 PUFA levels and AF, respectively.

Results

A total of 338,199 participants (aged 55.2±8.1, 44.3% men) were analysed. Of these, 35.0% (n=118,300) was taking fish oil supplements. The 10-year risk of AF was significantly higher in the Fish-Oil-Users than in the Non-Users (3.83% vs. 2.91%, adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% CI [1.01–1.10], P=0.023). The result was consistent in the propensity-score matched cohort (propensity-score matched HR 1.06, 95% CI [1.00–1.12], P=0.043). The increased risk of AF by fish oil supplement was prominent in low-risk participants with healthy lifestyles. Among n-3 PUFA, the docosapentaenoic acid (DPA) showed significant causal estimates for the increased risk of AF (odds ratio [OR] 1.15, 95% CI [1.08–1.22], P&lt;0.001), while higher eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) levels caused a decrease of AF risk (OR 0.85, 95% CI [0.80–0.90], P&lt;0.001).

Conclusion

Fish oil supplement intake significantly increased the long-term risk of AF in a healthy population. The causal effect of fish oil intake on the risk of AF may depend on the specific types of n-3 PUFA.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

The ideal environment for the development of postcardiac surgery atrial fibrillation: evidence for endothelial activation and poor cell-cell interaction

Introduction

The development of post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgeryis associated with pre-existing endothelial activation and systemic inflammation due to adhesion and transmigration of leukocytes into the interstitium. The electrical remodelling associated with AF causes changes in connexins, resulting in ineffective electrical coupling between cells and thus ineffective cell-cell communication.There is also an association between the inflammatory state, and the presence of cardiac fibrosis, oxidative stress and myocyte apoptosis.

Purpose

Our aim was to investigate the pathophysiologicaland regulatory mechanisms of AF through endothelial activation and inflammatory status, as well as cell-cell interactions (connexins) in relation to POAF amongst a cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Methods

We studied prospective patients who underwent CABG (52.9%) or cardiac valve (47.1%) surgery without previous documented AF. Patients with permanent AF who underwent CABG or cardiac valve surgery were also included as positive controls. Plasma samples were collected at baseline and 24 hours after surgery, to assess the impact of surgery. To detect endothelial activation, vascular cell adhesion protein-1 (VCAM-1 (CD106)) was evaluated by ELISA assay in plasma samples. Expression of connexin 40 and 43 were measured by inmunohistochemistry in atrial tissue samples.

Results

We included 117 patients (75.2% males, median age 67 [IQR 59.5–73.0] years), of whom17 (14.5%) patients had permanent AF; 27 (23.1%) developed POAF and 73 (62.4%) had no AF detected.

We found higher baseline VCAM-1 levels versus 24-hour samples overall (p=0.001). When comparing groups, baseline VCAM-1 levels were higher in patients with permanent AF compared to non-AF (p=0.035); and in permanent AF compared to POAF (p=0.049). VCAM-1 levels at 24h followed the same trends between permanent AF and non-AF (p=0.001), and permanent AF versus POAF (p=0.013) (Table 1). VCAM-1 levels over the third tertile (i.e.&gt;49.77 ng/ml) increased the risk of AF almost 3-fold (OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.06–7.70; p=0.039). There was a significant decrease in the expression of connexion 40 in patients with AF (ie. patients with permanent AF or POAF) compared to non-AF patients (1.00 [0.50–2.31] vs. 2.48 [1.94–3.00], p=0.044), while connexin 43 was non-significantly different (1.07 [0.41–1.75] vs. 2.00 [0.63–2.25], p=0.289) (Table 2).

Conclusions

VCAM-1 levels were upregulated in patients with permanent AF and POAF compared to patients without AF, and remained higher even after surgery, thus demonstrating a relevantendothelial activation. The pro-inflammatory state presented in these patients with AF, along with decreased connexin 40 expression impacting cell-to-cell conduction, suggests a potential combination for atrial remodelling and incident AF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Thromboembolic risk dynamics, integrated care management and outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: a proof-of-concept analysis from the SPORTIF trials

Introduction

Few data exist on the impact of thromboembolic risk dynamics in determining a higher risk of adverse clinical outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Moreover, no evidence is available about the possible impact of integrated care, as defined by the `Atrial fibrillation Better Care' (ABC) pathway, in modulating the clinical outcomes associated with the dynamic changes in risk.

Purpose

To study thromboembolic risk dynamics and the relationship with integrated care, also in determining the risk of adverse outcomes in AF patients.

Methods

We analysed patients from the randomized controlled SPORTIF III and V trials. Thromboembolic risk was assessed according to CHA2DS2-VASc score. Integrated care was assessed according to ABC pathway adherence. The primary endpoint was the composite clinical outcome of all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events.

Results

A total of 3589 patients [mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.8) years; 30.4% female; median [IQR] baseline CHA2DS2-VASc 3 [2–4]) were available for the analysis. Over a mean 573.8 (SD 129.5) days of follow-up, a total of 67 (1.9%) reported an increase in CHA2DS2-VASc score, with a mean (SD) delta of 0.0295 (0.2257). Among those with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc, 29 (43.3%) reported a 1-point increase, 37 (55.2%) reported a 2-point increase and only 1 (1.5%) reported a 3-point increase. A total of 948 (26.4%) patients were managed adherent to ABC pathway and overall, a median (IQR) of 2 [1–3] ABC criteria were fulfilled in the patients included. An adjusted linear regression analysis found that an increasing number of ABC pathway criteria fulfilled was inversely associated with increase in CHA2DS2-VASc score throughout follow-up (Beta −0.010, 95% CI −0.019 to −0.001), p=0.045), while considering the single ABC criteria, only the “C” criteria was inversely associated with an increase in CHA2DS2-VASc score (Beta −0.018, 95% CI −0.034 to −0.001, p=0.038). A total of 255 (7.1%) clinical events were recorded. An adjusted Cox regression analysis found that both increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score (HR 2.67, 95% CI 2.12–3.36, p&lt;0.001) and increasing number of ABC pathway criteria fulfilled (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.61–0.82) were independently associated with adverse outcomes. A regression line studying the interaction between increasing CHA2DS2-VASc, and ABC pathway adherence showed trends for improved risk reductions in clinical adverse outcomes when patients with increasing thromboembolic risk were managed according to integrated care [Figure 1].

Conclusions

Integrated care was associated with a lower progression in the thromboembolic risk of AF patients, particular through the optimal management of cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities. Both increasing thromboembolic risk and increasing adherence to ABC pathway were independently associated, although inversely, with occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Associations between pregnancy complications and incident cardiovascular disease: a nationwide data linkage study in Wales

Background

Previous studies have associated pregnancy complications with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease. However, previous studies have not sufficiently evaluated the impact of broad range of pregnancy complications or common cardiovascular conditions individually. Furthermore, most previous studies have relied on data from hospital admission records only, which may not have adequately accounted for conditions that may not result in an inpatient hospital admission, such as atrial fibrillation.

Purpose

To examine the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, atrial fibrillation or heart failure among women after their first pregnancy with a history of pregnancy complications compared to women without pregnancy complications in a large nationwide study using linked routinely collected data.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank and included women aged 16–45 years who had their first pregnancy between 2000 and 2018 in Wales. Data were extracted from various sources such as Office for National Statistics (ONS) birth and death extracts, hospital admission, outpatient, emergency department and General Practice data sources, and pregnancy related data such as maternal indicators and national community child health. Survival analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, congenital and valvular heart diseases, multifetal pregnancy ethnicity, maternal age, calendar year of first birth and index of multiple deprivation.

Results

A total of 298,515 women were included in the study, of which 74,832 (25.1%) had a history of any pregnancy complication during their first pregnancy. During a median of 9.7 years follow-up time, 2,484 women developed at least one cardiovascular condition. Among women with a history of pregnancy complication in their first pregnancy, IHD had the highest incidence rate at 4.94 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.44–5.49) per 10,000 person-years, and atrial fibrillation was the lowest at 1.92 (95% CI 1.62–2.28). The history of any pregnancy complication during the first pregnancy was associated with a higher risk of all cardiovascular conditions examined, including heart failure [hazard ratio (HR) 1.93 95% CI 1.61–2.31)], IHD [HR 1.82 (95% CI 1.58–2.10)], stroke [HR 1.39 (95% CI 1.20–1.61)] and atrial fibrillation [HR 1.33 (95% CI 1.08–1.65) (Figure 1).

Conclusion

This population-scale study used anonymised individual-level linked data from multiple routinely collected data sources. A history of pregnancy complications during first pregnancy was associated with a higher risk of incident cardiovascular conditions, including heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, stroke and atrial fibrillation. Applying primary preventive measures and risk assessments for cardiovascular disease after the first pregnancy may mitigate the higher risk among these women.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other.

Atrial fibrillation detection in ambulatory patients using a smart ring powered by deep learning analysis of continuous photoplethysmography monitoring

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) detection could be effective with photoplethysmography (PPG) signal monitoring by a wearable device.

Purpose

We aimed to validate the performance of AF detection among ambulatory patients who underwent electrical cardioversion for AF using a smart ring capable of continuous PPG monitoring and deep learning analysis.

Methods

In this prospective single-arm study, participants who underwent successful electrical cardioversion for AF were enrolled. The participants equipped a smart ring (CardioTracker, Sky Labs Inc., Seongnam, Republic of Korea) after the electrical cardioversion. The smart ring then continuously monitored PPG over 14 days to detect AF recurrence. The smart ring alarmed AF episodes based on deep learning analysis of PPG. The participants were asked to measure at least three daily ECGs using the smart ring to validate AF recurrence detected by PPG. All ECG snapshots were recorded along with lead I and saved with simultaneous PPG. ECG data were examined by the three cardiologists independently (SK, SRL, and EKC). The monitoring time, analyzable proportions of monitored signals, detection rates of AF episodes, and the diagnostic performance of PPG-based deep learning were evaluated. At the end of the monitoring, a survey on the use of the smart ring was performed.

Results

A total of 35 participants (mean age 58.9 years, male 74.3%) were enrolled. Figure 1 illustrates an example of PPG monitoring and PPG-ECG snapshots by the smart ring. The study participation period was a median of 14 days and the wearing time of the smart ring was a median of 9.2 days (IQR 7.1–11.5 days). Signal artifacts during daily activity decreased the analyzable proportions of monitored PPG by 68.5%. Irregular pulse episodes were detected by the smart ring in 29 (82.9%) participants after a median of 1 day from the cardioversion (Figure 2). A total of 2532 PPG-ECG snapshots were acquired and 1623 (64.1%) were interpretable by both the cardiologists (using ECG) and the deep learning analysis (using PPG). Comparing PPG by simultaneous ECG, the performance of AF detection by the smart ring was 98.7% for sensitivity, 97.8% for specificity, 2.2% for false positives, and 1.3% for false negatives (Figure 2). After using the smart ring, 76.9% of the participants responded that they had no discomfort in using the smart ring in daily activity and another 76.9% responded that it was helpful to monitor their disease.

Conclusion

Despite the signal artifacts during daily activity, AF detection with PPG monitoring by a smart ring could be effective for AF screening among ambulatory patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): This work was supported by Sky Labs Inc, Seongnam, Republic of Korea, and by the grant No. 0320202040 from the Seoul National University Hospital Research Fund.

Venous thromboembolism and mortality in a multiethnic population: a report from the Birmingham Black Country VTE registry (BBC-VTE Investigators)

Background

Most epidemiological studies into venous thromboembolism (VTE) are based on the white Caucasian population and unrepresentative of VTE outcomes in non-white ethnicities.

Purpose

Our VTE registry aims to get an insight into the outcomes of VTE patients as applicable to a developed world population with a multi-ethnic background. This will guide clinicians to make appropriate decisions with regards to management and prognosis.

Methods

The Birmingham Black Country VTE Registry (BBC-VTE) is a multi-ethnic cohort of patients in the West Midlands region of the United Kingdom, who suffered a first episode of VTE. In this study we compared baseline characteristics, treatment patterns and outcomes, and secondly, compared these among the different ethnic groups in this region.

Results

Between the years 2012–2014 there was a total of 1615 patients (mean age 65.5; 53.1% female) admitted with a first episode of VTE of whom, 134 (8.3%) were Asian, 92 (5.7%) Black, and 1213 (75.1%) White. Asian patients were younger (mean age 54, SD 19.3) vs Black patients (59, SD 19.7) and White patients (68, SD 17.4); and were less often female (50.7% vs. 55.4% and 53.8%) for Black and White patients respectively. The initial VTE event was a DVT in 680 (42.1%) and a PE±DVT in 935 patients (57.9%). Below-knee and above-knee DVT occurred in 95 (5.9%) and 585 (36.2%) patients respectively. Recurrent DVT occurred in 3.2% of those with an initial below-knee DVT and 12.5% of those with an initial above-knee DVT. Recurrent PE was also more common in those with an initial above knee DVT (4.8%) compared to those with below-knee DVT (3.2%).

After the initial VTE event, 1269 (78.6%) were started on long-term anticoagulation for the prevention of recurrent VTE. Of those, 65.1% stayed on anticoagulation for up to 6 months after the initial VTE event, and 34.9% continued for longer than 6 months, including those on lifelong anticoagulation. Bleeding and major bleeding occurred in 6.8% and 2.5% respectively in those on anticoagulation for 6 or less months, vs. 10.4% and 3.5% in those anticoagulated for longer than 6 months. The most common site of bleeding was gastrointestinal in 42.3% of all bleeds and this site was also responsible for 54.3% of major bleeds.

From evaluating the odds ratio for VTE mortality (see Fig. 1), ethnicity did not have a significant impact. Older age; the presence of diabetes mellitus; history of malignancy; as well as admission laboratory results for C-reactive protein and neutrophil count were all significantly associated with higher odds of mortality in this patient cohort.

Conclusion

BBC-VTE is a contemporary multi-ethnic cohort of patients providing insights into the risk factors among multi-ethnic patients that have developed VTE. Ethnicity did not emerge as an independent risk for VTE mortality.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

The comorbidity network in older adults with atrial fibrillation: a Danish nationwide cohort study

Introduction

Individuals affected by atrial fibrillation (AF) often present with multiple comorbidities that challenge their clinical management and worsen the prognosis. Characterizing the network structure of comorbid chronic conditions in AF patients may provide insights to better tailor medical and care management.

Purpose

To examine and compare the network structure of comorbidities in older people with and without AF.

Methods

Cross-sectional data derived from the Danish National Patient Register (period 2012–2017) were examined. Patients 60+ years old by 1. January 2017 with AF were selected and matched by age and sex to non-AF controls. Chronic conditions coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision were retrieved and grouped into 60 clinically relevant disease categories for old age. Network analysis was applied to construct the disease networks and the centrality index of expected influence was measured to estimate the disease interconnectedness in each network. The difference in network structure and disease centrality between AF and non-AF patients was formally assessed through network comparison tests.

Results

A total of 96,117 AF patients (72 years old; 45% women) were identified and matched with 96,117 non-AF controls. The most prevalent chronic conditions in AF were hypertension (55.1%), large bowel diseases (36.4%) and ischemic heart disease (36.0%). A significant difference of global network structure was observed between AF and non-AF patients (p&lt;0.001) (Figure1). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, inflammatory arthropathy, chronic kidney disease and peripheral neuropathy had a higher connectivity with other diseases in the AF vs. non-AF patients (p&lt;0.001). By contrast, hypertension, heart failure and stroke were more interconnected in the non-AF patients (p&lt;0.001). Among AF patients, network differences were further observed between age categories (60–79 vs 80+ years) in male and female subgroups.

Conclusions

Older AF patients exhibited a complex network structure of chronic conditions that differed from age- and sex- matched non-AF patients. The network-based identification of highly co-morbid diseases in AF can improve our understanding of AF-related chronic conditions and potentially enhance prioritization and a personalized care for older patients with AF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme

Factors associated with prescription of oral anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation in older people living in care homes in Wales: a routine data linkage study 2003–2018

Background

Prescription of oral anticoagulants (OAC) is paramount for stroke prevention in people with atrial fibrillation (AF), but treatment decisions in older care home residents are complicated by frailty, multi-morbidity and heightened stroke and bleeding risk. There is a paucity of data on factors influencing the decision to prescribe OAC in this high-risk population who are under-represented in research studies.

Purpose

To explore the factors associated with OAC prescription for care home residents aged ≥65 years with AF.

Methods

Nationwide retrospective cohort study of people aged ≥65 years entering a care home in Wales between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2018, using anonymised individual-level electronic health record and administrative data sources available within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were used to explore the association between resident characteristics and OAC prescription or non-prescription.

Results

Between 2003 and 2018, 14,493 people with AF aged ≥65 years became new residents in care homes in Wales and 7,057 (48.7%) were prescribed OAC (32.7% in 2003 compared to 72.7% in 2018), Figure 1. Increasing age and prescription of antiplatelet therapy were associated with lower odds of OAC prescription (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.96 per one year age increase [95% confidence interval, 0.95 to 0.96] and aOR 0.91 [0.84 to 0.98], respectively). Conversely, prior venous thromboembolism (aOR 4.06 [3.17 to 5.20]), advancing frailty (mild: aOR 4.61 [3.95 to 5.38]; moderate: aOR 6.69 [5.74 to 7.80]; severe: aOR 8.42 [7.16 to 9.90]) and year of care home entry in the post-non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) era from 2011 onwards (aOR 1.91 [1.76 to 2.06]) were associated with higher odds of OAC prescription, Figure 2.

Conclusions

The proportion of care home residents prescribed OAC therapy has increased over time with the introduction of NOACs in 2011, but OAC prescription rates are still sub-optimal. Although there is an expected rise in OAC prescribing for increasingly frail people, further work is needed to investigate the interaction with deprivation and other socio-economic and demographic factors to assess potential inequalities in prescribing across these groups. Targeted educational tools for clinicians are needed to address barriers to OAC prescription for AF, such as older age and separate indications for antiplatelet therapy.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Bleeding and thrombotic events in patients with atrial fibrillation and cancer: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and cancer are frequently coexisting in elderly patients. Pooled metanalytic data on the impact of cancer on outcomes in AF patients are lacking.

Purpose

We want to investigate the impact of cancer in patients with AF, particularly in relation to the incidence of bleeding and ischemic events

Methods

Systematic review and meta-regression analysis of clinical studies retrieved from Medline (PubMed) and Cochrane (CENTRAL) databases according to PRISMA guidelines. Safety endpoints included any, major, gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and intracranial haemorrhage (ICH). Efficacy endpoints included myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (IS/SE), cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause death.

Results

15 studies were included in the metanalysis: 4 prospective, 3 randomized clinical trials and 8 retrospective studies with 2,868,010 AF patients, of whom 479,571 (16.7%) had cancer. The pooled HR for cancer was 1.43 (95% CI 1.42–1.44) for any bleeding, 1.27 (95% CI 1.26–1.29) for major bleeding, 1.17 (95% CI 1.14–1.19) for GI bleeding, and 1.07 (95% CI 1.04–1.11) for ICH. The risk of major bleeding increased with the proportion of breast cancer. Cancer increased the risk of all-cause death (HR 2.00, 95% CI 1.99–2.02) whereas no association with MI (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94–1.01) and CV death (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99–1.03) was found. Patients with AF and cancer were less likely to suffer from IS/SE (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.89–0.94).

Conclusion

The presence of cancer modifies the clinical history of AF patients, mainly increasing the risk of bleeding. Further analyses according to the type and stage of cancer is necessary to better stratify bleeding risk in these patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Mobile health-technology integrated care in elderly atrial fibrillation patients: a report from the mAFA-II randomized clinical trial

Background

The prospective Mobile Health Technology for Improved Screening and Optimized Integrated Care in AF (mAFA-II) randomized trial demonstrated the efficacy of a mobile health (mHealth) technology implemented “Atrial fibrillation Better Care” (ABC) pathway approach (mAFA intervention) for holistic or integrated care management in reducing the risk of adverse events in in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether these benefits also apply to elderly patients (who may be less adoptive of mHealth approaches) is unclear.

Purpose

In this ancillary analysis of the mAFA-II trial, we evaluated the effect of the mAFA intervention among elderly AF patients (age ≥75 years).

Methods

The mAFA-II trial enrolled adults AF patients across 40 centres in China between June 1, 2018 and August 16, 2019. The main outcome was the composite outcome of stroke or thromboembolism, all-cause death, and rehospitalization. Effect of the mAFA intervention was assessed through Cox proportional hazard models after the adjustment for baseline risk factors and cluster effect. We also assessed the interaction between age and the mAFA intervention effect on the main trial population.

Results

In this analysis, 1,163 elderly AF patients (mean age: 82.6±5.3 years, 43.1% females) were included, of which 520 were allocated to mAFA intervention and 643 to usual care. The mAFA intervention was associated with a significant reduction of the composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.35–0.97) and rehospitalizations alone (aHR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.24–0.91). A significant interaction between age and mAFA allocation group was observed for both the composite outcome (p=0.002; Figure 1, Panel A) and rehospitalization alone (p=0.015; Figure 1, Panel B), with the beneficial effect of the mAFA intervention decreasing with increasingly higher age, particularly at age ≥80 years old.

Conclusions

A mHealth-technology implemented ABC pathway is effective in reducing adverse clinical events in older AF patients aged ≥75 years old. The benefits obtained with mAFA intervention were attenuated at extreme ages, especially in those aged ≥80 years old.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 82170309). This study was an investigator-initiated project, with limited funding by independent research and educational grants.

Prevalence and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in older people living in care homes in Wales: a routine data linkage study 2003–2018

Background

Older care home residents are a high-risk group of people with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are under-represented in clinical trials. Improved understanding of AF epidemiology and management in this population is paramount for health and social care organisations to strategically plan services.

Purpose

To determine the trends in AF prevalence and compare adverse health outcomes in older care home residents aged ≥65 years with AF compared to those without AF.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study of people entering a care home between 2003–2018 using nationwide, population-scale anonymised health and administrative data, provisioned from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (1 January 2000–31st December 2018). Direct standardisation was used to calculate AF prevalence by year of care entry (2010–2018). Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the risk of adverse health outcomes.

Results

Between 2003 and 2018, 86,602 people aged ≥65 years became new residents in care homes in Wales. Residents with AF (n=14,493) had a significantly higher risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 95% confidence interval [CI]) of cardiovascular (aHR 1.27 [1.17 to 1.37], p&lt;0.001) and all-cause mortality (aHR 1.14 [1.11 to 1.17], p&lt;0.001), Figure 1. The risk (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR], 95% CI) of ischaemic stroke (adjusted sHR 1.55 [1.36 to 1.76], p&lt;0.001) and cardiovascular hospitalisation (adjusted sHR 1.28 [1.22 to 1.34], p&lt;0.001) was also higher in residents with AF, even when mortality was considered a competing event, Figure 1. There was no significant change in age- and sex-standardised prevalence of AF between 2010 and 2018, 16.79% (95% CI 15.85 to 17.94) and 17.02% (95% CI 16.05 to 17.98), respectively (absolute change 2010–2018: 0.06% [95% CI: −1.38 to 1.50], p=0.93), Figure 2.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates unique data on the epidemiology of AF and associated outcomes in older care home residents. Whilst the prevalence of AF remained stable between 2010–2018, residents with AF had significantly higher risk of adverse health events. Treatment of AF in accordance with guidelines is critical in this population to optimise management and reduce adverse health outcomes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Prognosis of atrial fibrillation with or without comorbidities. Analysis of younger adults from a nationwide database

Background

“Lone AF” may be defined as AF in younger adults (age &lt;60 years) and lack of obvious associated CV or extra CV conditions. However, current ESC guidelines indicate that the term of “Lone AF” is potentially confusing and should be abandoned because a cause may be present in every patient. In addition, studies on prognosis of “Lone AF” are inconsistent, likely as the result of the heterogeneity in definitions, comorbidities, study population and duration of follow-up. We aimed to assess the prognosis of patients with AF with or without cardiac or extra cardiac concomitant conditions.

Participants and methods

From the French administrative hospital-discharge PMSI database (Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d'Information) covering hospital care and representative of the whole French population, all consecutive patients with AF diagnosis hospitalized between 2011 and 2020 were identified. Patients were classified into four groups: 1) &gt;60 yo; 2) with known cardiac disease (KCD group); 3) with extra cardiac comorbidities (ECC); and 4) AF without KCD or ECC (“Lone AF”).

Results

Altogether 2,435,541 patients were identified, from which 2203,702 patients aged &gt;60 years and 231,839 patients aged &lt;60 years [with KCD (55.2%), with ECC (14.7%) and with “Lone AF” (30.1%)]. During follow-up the incidences of all-cause and CV deaths were 13.7%, 5.7%, 6.2% and 2.3%, and 4.2%, 1.7%, 0.8% and 0.3% in the older than 60 yo group, KCD group, ECC group and “Lone AF” AF group, respectively. In the age and sex-adjusted analysis (patients &lt;60 yo), patients with AF and KCD had worse outcomes than patients with “Lone AF” for all major cardiac events (see figures).

Conclusion

There are three distinct prognostic criteria based on the presence or not of HD or extra cardiac concomitant comorbidities. Patients in the so-called “Lone AF” group remain severe in terms of CV events but still with a lower incidence than the patient with associated KCD or ECC. The presences of KCD or ECC make it possible to distinguish a profile in terms of events that are very different from the patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Stroke-heart syndrome: sex-specific incidence, risk factors, and major adverse cardiovascular events in 486,515 patients with incident ischaemic stroke

Background

Newly diagnosed cardiovascular complications post-stroke, termed stroke-heart syndrome, are common and associate with worsened prognosis.

Purpose

To investigate the sex-specific incidence and 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events following stroke-heart syndrome, stratified by pre-existing risk factors (sex, age, obesity, hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and high LDL cholesterol).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using anonymised electronic medical records from 56 participating healthcare organizations. Patients with incident ischaemic stroke aged ≥18 years with 5-years of follow-up were included. Patients diagnosed with new-onset cardiovascular complications (heart failure, severe ventricular arrhythmia, atrial fibrillation, ischaemic heart disease, takotsubo syndrome) within 4-weeks of incident ischaemic stroke (exposure) were 1:1 propensity score-matched (age, sex, ethnicity, comorbidities, cardiovascular care) with ischaemic stroke patients without newly diagnosed cardiovascular complications (control). Cox proportional hazards regression models produced hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and Kaplan-Meier curves for 5-year risk of all-cause mortality, recurrent stroke, and acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Results

Of 486,515 patients with ischaemic stroke, 18% (n=87,786) presented with stroke-heart syndrome (47% (n=41,088) female and 52% (n=45,891) male). Following propensity score matching, composite stroke-heart syndrome associated with significantly higher risk of 5-year mortality (HR 1.66 (95% CI 1.62,1.70), P&lt;0.01), recurrent stroke (1.26 (1.24,1.28), P&lt;0.01), and AMI (2.58 (2.50,2.67), P&lt;0.01). These outcomes were similar for both males and females (Figure 1). The risk of mortality, recurrent stroke and AMI following stroke-heart syndrome was relatively higher for patients aged &lt;75 compared to those &gt;75. The risk of all adverse outcomes were relatively higher for females aged &lt;75 compared to males aged &lt;75. Pre-existing obesity associated with a lower risk of mortality for females and males, but a higher risk of recurrent stroke for females. Pre-existing hypertension associated with a lower risk of all outcomes, except recurrent stroke in males. Pre-existing diabetes associated with higher risks for mortality and AMI for both females and males. High LDL cholesterol associated with lower risk of mortality but a higher risk of recurrent stroke and AMI in males and females (Figure 1).

Conclusions

In this cohort study of patients with incident ischaemic stroke, stroke-heart syndrome occurred in 18% of patients. The overall incidence and subsequent 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events following stroke-heart syndrome were similar for females and males, but with important sex-specific differences when stratified by pre-existing risk factors, including age, obesity, and hypertension.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Epidemiology and impact of frailty in patients with atrial fibrillation in Europe

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a medical syndrome characterised by reduced physiological reserve and increased vulnerability to stressors. Data regarding the relationship between frailty and atrial fibrillation (AF) are still inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to perform a comprehensive evaluation of frailty in a large European cohort of AF patients.

METHODS

A 40-item frailty index (FI) was built according to the accumulation of deficits model in the AF patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry. Association of baseline characteristics, clinical management, quality of life, healthcare resources use and risk of outcomes with frailty was examined.

RESULTS

Among 10,177 patients [mean age (standard deviation) 69.0 (11.4) years, 4,103 (40.3%) females], 6,066 (59.6%) were pre-frail and 2,172 (21.3%) were frail, whereas only 1,939 (19.1%) were considered robust. Baseline thromboembolic and bleeding risks were independently associated with increasing FI. Frail patients with AF were less likely to be treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs) (odds ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.89), especially with non-vitamin K antagonist OACs and managed with a rhythm control strategy, compared with robust patients. Increasing frailty was associated with a higher risk for all outcomes examined, with a non-linear exponential relationship. The use of OAC was associated with a lower risk of outcomes, except in patients with very/extremely high frailty.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large cohort of AF patients, there was a high burden of frailty, influencing clinical management and risk of adverse outcomes. The clinical benefit of OAC is maintained in patients with high frailty, but not in very high/extremely frail ones.

Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE): first steps in the process of the engagement in research projects in Brazil

Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE) – sometimes called Community Engagement and Involvement (CEI) – comes as a big challenge but one that can be very helpful for health care professionals and stakeholders in planning better health policies for attending to the main needs of the community. PPIE involves three pillars: public involvement, public engagement, and participation. Public involvement occurs when members of the general population are actively involved in developing the research question, designing, and conducting the research. Public engagement tells people about new studies, why they are important, the impact of results, the possible implication of the main findings for the community, and the possible impact of these new findings in society, as well as, in the dissemination of knowledge to the general population. Participation is being a volunteer in the study. Our experience with PPIE, to the best of our knowledge the first initiative in Brazil, is a partnership with the University of Birmingham, the University of Liverpool, and the NIHR Global Health Group on Atrial Fibrillation (AF) Management focusing on the AF care pathway exploring the important aspects of diagnosis and treatment in the primary care system from a low-middle income area in São Paulo. The involvement of patients/public in the research represents a new step in the process of inclusion of all segments of our society based on patient illness and the gaps in knowledge aiming to open new horizons for continuous improvement and better acceptance of research projects.

Evolving changes of outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: a nationwide study

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background and aims. The integrated approach for management of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been proposed in recent years for reducing AF-related mortality, morbidity, and hospitalizations. We evaluated the trends in the risk of ischemic stroke, intracranial bleeding, hospitalization for heart failure, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause death among newly diagnosed patients with AF in a nationwide cohort study since 2010.

Methods

This French longitudinal cohort study was based on the national hospitalization database covering hospital care from for the entire population. All adults hospitalized in French hospitals with AF from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2018, were identified. Among them, 1,938,269 newly diagnosed patients with AF who survived 60 days after AF was diagnosed were included in the analysis. The 1-year risk of ischemic stroke, intracranial bleeding, and mortality of patients with AF diagnosed in each year were compared to those diagnosed in 2010 using the logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, prior stroke, vascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hyperlipidemia, inflammatory diseases, cancer, abnormal renal function, abnormal liver function, anemia, and history of bleeding.

Results

The age of newly diagnosed patients with AF was stable from 77.1±11.8 years in 2010 to 76.9±12.6 years in 2018. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores of patients with incident AF showed a significant increasing trend for each year (from 3.32 in 2010 to 3.54 in 2018, p&lt;0.001).

Temporal trends for the risk of adverse events at 1-year follow-up in newly diagnosed patients with AF compared to 2010 are shown in the Figure. Compared with 2010, the risk of ischemic stroke was significantly lower in all subsequent years from 2011 to 2018 (adjusted hazard ratios [HR] 0.940 to 0.854; p ranging from p=0.001 to &lt;0.0001). The risk of major bleeding was significantly lower in all subsequent years after 2010 (adjusted HRs 0.965 to 0.621; p ranging from p=0.002 to &lt;0.0001). By contrast, the risk of intracranial bleeding was not different after 2010 (adjusted HRs 1.032 to 0.996; all p&gt;0.50). The risk of hospitalization for heart failure was significantly lower in all subsequent years after 2010 (adjusted HRs 0.927 to 0.820; all p&lt;0.0001). Finally, the risk of cardiovascular mortality and all-cause death were also significantly lower after 2010 (adjusted HRs 0.952 to 0.690; p ranging from p=0.001 to &lt;0.0001 and adjusted HRs 0.948 to 0.715; all p&lt;0.0001 respectively).

Conclusion

We observed a constant reduction in the risk of ischemic stroke, major bleeding, hospitalization for HF, cardiovascular death and all-cause death in AF patients seen in French hospitals in recent years. This may be related to an increasing use of oral anticoagulants (including NOACs) and by a more holistic and integrated approach to AF management that has been proposed in the more recent guidelines.

Prognostic impact of vascular disease in patients with atrial fibrillation: Insights from The Loire Valley Atrial Fibrillation Project

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Vascular disease which comprises peripheral artery disease, significant coronary artery disease and aortic disease is associated with both an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke in AF patients.

Purpose

We investigated the effect of vascular disease on the prognosis of AF patients.

Methods

In this retrospective analysis, all patients with AF were identified and classified into 2 groups depending on the presence of vascular disease. 3 patients were excluded due to missing data. Primary outcome was a composite of death, stroke and thromboembolic events. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality, stroke or systemic embolism (SSE), ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke and major bleeding.

Results

A total of 8962 patients were included; 3021 with vascular disease and 5941 without vascular disease and followed up over a mean period of 929±1082 days. On the univariate analysis, patients with vascular disease were at a higher risk of all-cause mortality hazard ratio (HR) 1.728 ((confidence interval (CI)1.549-1.928), SSE HR HR 1.477 (CI 1.274-1.714), ischaemic stroke HR 1.441 (CI 1.202-1.727), major bleeding HR 1.488 (CI 1.292-1.713) and a composite of death and SSE HR 1.643 (CI 1.489-1.812), compared to patients without vascular disease. On a multivariate analysis, after adjusting for components of the CHA2DS2VASc score, oral anticoagulation (warfarin) use and antiplatelet use, the increased risk of all-cause mortality HR 1.460 (CI 1.285-1.658), SSE HR 1.226 (CI 1.030-1.458) and major bleeding HR 1.186 (CI 1.005-1.400) remained statistically significant, but the risk of ischaemic stroke was no longer significant, HR 1.187 (CI 0.960-1.469). Compared to those without vascular disease, patients with vascular disease were at a lower risk of haemorrhagic strokes but this was not significant.

Conclusion

AF patients with vascular disease are at a higher risk of all-cause mortality, SSE and major bleeding compared to patients without vascular disease, indicating that patients with this combination require careful and holistic management in terms of risk factor control and treatment. Additional research is required to further characterise the relationship between the two.

Effect of cardiorenal syndrome and its different subtypes on incidence of atrial fibrillation in a nationwide analysis

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Cardiorenal syndromes (CRS) are associated with increased risks of all-cause and cardiovascular death, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF) and ischemic stroke. Whether CRS (and different subtypes of CRS) are more prone to develop atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear.

Methods

This longitudinal cohort study was based on the national hospitalization database covering hospital care from the entire French population. The analysis focused on those with at least 5 years of complete follow-up (or dead earlier) as described by others. We identified 439,787 consecutive patients hospitalized in France in 2012 who had heart failure (HF), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and/or CRS. We estimated incidences of clinical events (including incident AF) during follow-up. Analysis were adjusted for 1) age and sex and 2) all baseline characteristics except cardiac and renal comorbidities.

Results

Overall, 58.2% were male, 67.7% had hypertension, 31.6% had diabetes mellitus and their mean age was 75.3±13.2; 329,154 had isolated HF, 67,939 had isolated CKD, 15,695 had acute concomitant CRS (which could be type 1, 3 or 5 CRS), 15,699 had type 2 CRS (cardiorenal) and 11,300 had type 4 CRS (renocardiac). History of AF was present in 36.4 % of the patients: 39.9% in those with isolated HF, 13.3% in those with isolated CKD, 43.0% in those with concomitant CRS, 57.2% in those with type 2 CRS, 35.3% in those with type 4 CRS (overall p&lt;0.0001).

Incidence and adjusted hazard ratios for of all-cause death, cardiovascular death and incident AF are in Table 1. CRS was associated with a higher risk of death and patients with type 2 CRS had the highest risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Isolated HF was associated with a higher risk of incident AF than isolated CKD (Table 1). Patients with CRS had higher risk of incident AF than those with isolated HF or isolated CKD. Among patients with CRS, those with concomitant CRS had the numerically highest 5-year risk of incident AF, which was not statistically different than those with type 2 or type 4 CRS in adjusted analysis.

Conclusion

The long-term prognosis of CRS subtypes is poor and may vary, some CRS subtypes being more closely associated with risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular mortality than others. Risk of incident AF is higher in CRS than in isolated HF or isolated CKD and is not statistically different among the various subtypes of CRS.

Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death in the general population

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been linked to an increase in the risk of ventricular arrhythmias.

Purpose

We aimed to investigate whether AF is associated with an increased risk of ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF) and sudden death (SD).

Methods

Hospitalised patients from 2013 with and without AF were identified from the French National database and included if they had at least 5 years of follow-up.

Results

Over a median follow-up period of 5.4 years (interquartile range (IQR) 5.0-5.8 years), a total of 3345638 patients were identified. Of these, 312226 had AF and 3033412 did not have AF. After multivariable analysis, the predictors significantly associated with VT, VF and SD included age, sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, history of pulmonary oedema, valve disease, dilated cardiomyopathy, coronary artery disease, vascular disease, AF, smoking, dyslipidaemia, obesity, alcohol related diagnoses, chronic kidney disease, lung disease, liver disease, inflammatory diseases, anaemia, previous cancer, poor nutrition, cognitive impairment, and frailty.

The incidence of VT, VF and SD was higher in those with AF compared to those without AF (2.23%/year vs. 0.56%/year). AF was associated with a higher risk of incident outcomes compared to no AF, hazard ratio (HR) 3.657 (confidence interval (CI) 3.604-3.711). After adjustments were made for confounders (Figure 1), this increased risk was still significant HR 1.167 (CI 1.111-1.226). A 1:1 propensity score matched analysis was also performed (n=289,332 in each group), demonstrating the significantly increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias and SD in patients with AF compared to those without AF, HR 1.339 (CI 1.313-1.366).

Conclusion

The findings from our study AF indicate that AF is associated with an increased risk of VT, VF and sudden death in the general population.

The management of anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and history of falls or risk of falls: The Liverpool AF-Falls Project. A systematic review and meta-analysis

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Johnson and Johnson Medical

Background

Atrial fibrillation affects an estimated 33 million individuals worldwide and a major cause of stroke, heart failure, and death. Treatment with anticoagulants substantially reduces risk of stroke but is also associated with an increased risk of bleeding and especially intracranial haemorrhages which are the most feared complication. Because of that many patients do not receive anticoagulants; particularly patients at risk of falls or with history of falls. It is unclear what anticoagulant treatment these patients should be offered, and the Liverpool AF-Falls Project aims to investigate this area.

Purpose

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the most appropriate anticoagulant treatment option for the management of atrial fibrillation patients at risk of falls or with a history of falls.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, including studies evaluating safety and efficacy of different anticoagulants (Vitamin K Antagonist-VKA- versus Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anti-Coagulants-NOAC). Outcomes were ischemic stroke, major bleeding, intracranial haemorrhage, haemorrhagic stroke and mortality. Bibliographic databases (CENTRAL, CINAHL, ClinicalTrials.gov, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Scopus and Web of Science) were searched. Two independent reviewers identified studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool for randomized clinical trials and with the Newcastle-Ottawa-Scale for observational studies. Pairwise meta-analysis with random and fixed effects models were conducted. Heterogeneity was assessed with the I2 statistics. Hazard ratios (HRs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the effect of drugs on efficacy and safety.

Results

823 articles were identified, 643 after removing duplicates. 95 were screened for full text and 3 articles were retained for final quantitative synthesis including 26,514 patients. Risk of bias was moderate in Rao et al. 2018 and Steffel et al. 2017, and low in Miao et al. 2019. In meta-analysis, the hazard for intracranial haemorrhage was lower with NOACs compared to VKA (hazard ratio (HR) 0.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.13–0.82]; p&lt;0,001; I²=52%). There were no difference between NOACs and VKA regarding risks in ischemic stroke (HR 0.88, 95%CI [0.70–1.10; p=0.25; I²=0%), major bleeding (HR 0.88, 95%CI [0.62–1.27]; p=0.51, I²=0%); haemorrhagic stroke (HR 0.36, 95%CI [0.11–1.13]; p=0.08; I²=0%) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.95, 95%CI [0.67–1.33]; p=0.75; I² = 0%).

Conclusions

NOACs were associated with less intracranial haemorrhages than VKAs. There were no statistically significant differences in other outcomes. However, limited number of studies were identified suggesting research gaps in the AF patients with increased falling risk or history of falls, requiring careful interpretation pending more evidence.

Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death in patients with pacemakers and implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs)

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been linked to an increase in the risk of ventricular arrhythmias.

Purpose

We aimed to investigate whether AF is associated with an increased risk of ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF) and sudden death (SD) in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs).

Methods

All patients hospitalised in France between 2011 and 2020 with a history of pacemakers (PPMs) and implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) were identified from the French National database. Patients with a prior history of VT, VF and SD were excluded.

Results

A total of 701,195 patients were identified. Of these, 581,781 (90.1%) patients had PPMs and 63,726 (9.9%) had ICDs. In the PPM group, 248046 (42.6%) had AF and 333735 (57.4%) had no AF. After multivariable analysis, predictors for VT, VF and SD included sex, diabetes, heart failure, history of pulmonary oedema, valve disease, dilated cardiomyopathy, coronary artery disease (CAD), AF, vascular disease, intracranial bleeding, smoking, dyslipidaemia, alcohol related disorders, lung disease, chronic kidney disease (CKD), thyroid disorders, inflammatory diseases, anaemia, poor nutrition, cognitive impairment, previous cancer and frailty. The incidence of VT, VF and SD was higher in patients with AF (1.47%/year) compared to those without AF (0.94%/year), with the risk significantly elevated in the former group, hazard ratio (HR) 1.554 (confidence interval (CI) 1.508-1.601). After adjustment for confounders (Figure 1), AF was still associated with a significantly increased risk of VT, VF and SD, HR 1.236 (CI 1.198-1.276) in patients with PPMs. This was further demonstrated through a 1:1 propensity score matched (PSM) analysis (n=200977 in each group) where the risk of incident outcomes was significantly higher in PPM patients with AF, HR 1.230 (1.187-1.274), compared to those without AF.

In the ICD group, 20965 (32.9%) had AF and 42761 (67.1%) had no history of AF. Predictors of VT, VF and SD after multivariable analysis included age, sex, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, valve disease, CAD, previous percutaneous coronary intervention, vascular disease, AF, CKD, liver disease and frailty. Incidence of VT, VF and SD was higher in ICD patients with AF (5.30%/ year) compared to those without AF (4.21%/year), with a significantly higher risk, HR 1.261 (CI 1.204-1.320). After adjustment for confounders, this elevated risk was still significant HR 1.167 (1.111-1.226) (Figure 1). 1:1 PSM analysis (n=18349 in each group) demonstrated this further with a significantly elevated risk in ICD patients with AF, compared to ICD patients without AF, HR 1.134 (CI 1.071-1.200).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that patients with PPM and ICD with concurrent AF are at a higher risk of VT, VF and sudden death compared to patients with PPM and ICD who do not have AF.

Incident arrhythmias, heart failure and cardiovascular outcomes with SGLT-2 inhibitor use in diabetic patients: Insights from a global federated electronic medical record database

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT-2i) use has been associated with improved outcomes in patients with prevalent heart failure (HF), regardless of whether or not they have diabetes.

Purpose

We aimed to investigate the impact of SGLT-2i use on the risk of incident HF and adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes.

Methods

All diabetic patients between January 2018 and December 2019 were identified from a federated electronic medical record database (TriNetX), and followed up for 2 years. A 1:1 propensity score matched (PSM) analysis was performed to balance SGLT-2i and non-SGLT-2i cohorts. The primary outcome was incident HF and secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality, cardiac arrest, ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF), incident atrial fibrillation (AF), ischaemic stroke, a composite of arterial and venous thrombotic events, and a composite of incident VT/VF and cardiac arrest.

Results

A total of 115,749 diabetic patients who were on SGLT-2i and 2,316,638 who were not on SGLT-2i were identified. After PSM, 115,749 patients remained in each group. In the PSM analysis, the risk of incident HF was significantly lower in patients who were on SGLT-2i, compared to patients who were not on SGLT-2i (hazard ratio [HR] 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.70). SGLT-2i use was also associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.59-0.65), cardiac arrest (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.55-0.69), incident AF (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.75-0.81), ischaemic stroke (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.88-0.96), composite arterial and venous thrombotic events (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.95), and composite of incident VT/VF and cardiac arrest (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.68-0.79), compared to SGLT-2i non-use. There were no significant differences between the two groups for VT/VF (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.88-1.01).

Conclusion

SGLT-2i use was associated with a significant decrease in the risk of incident HF, all-cause mortality, cardiac arrest, incident AF, ischaemic stroke, thromboembolic events and VT/VF/cardiac arrest, when compared to the non-use of SGLT-2i.

The impact of socioeconomic deprivation on the risk of atrial fibrillation in patients with diabetes mellitus: a nationwide population-based study

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Although the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing worldwide, little is known about the exact risk factors of AF; and the disease"s association with socioeconomic status (SES) is under debate.

Purpose

This study aimed to examine the association between SES and the risk of AF in Korean patients with diabetes mellitus.

Methods

We studied 2,429,610 diabetic patients (mean age 56.9 years, female 40%) who underwent health check-ups from 2009 to 2012, using the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) database of Korea. Subjects were categorized into 6 groups according to the number of times (0 through 5) entitled for medical aid (MA) recipient, within the past 5 years from the date of check-up. (Fig. 1)

Division of Medical Care Assistance in the Ministry of Health and Welfare selects the medical aid beneficiaries. The recipients should not have a reliable caregiver, nor their income be more than 40% of the standard median income.

Among the study population, 64,818 were classified as MA group: 10,697 in MA 1, 11,005 in MA 2, 12,431 in MA 3, 10,689 in MA 4, 19,996 in MA 5, respectively. The remaining 2,364,792 were never entitled to MA recipients within 5 years and were assigned to the non-MA group. The incidence rate and hazard ratio of AF were then calculated for each group.

Results

Risk factors for cardiovascular disease were measured at baseline. More current smokers were in MA 5 group (28.7% in MA 5, 26.7% in non-MA, 26.2% in MA 1, 23.8% in MA 2, 23% in MA 3, 23.2% in MA 4, respectively, p &lt; 0.001), while more heavy drinkers were in the non-MA group than among the MA groups (20.7% vs. 6.2–7.9%, p &lt; 0.001).

Hypertension and dyslipidemia were generally higher in MA groups than in the non-MA group (hypertension, 60.8–65.8% in MA groups vs. 54.8% in non-MA group; dyslipidemia, 44.1–54.9% in MA groups vs. 39.6% in non-MA group, all, p &lt; 0.001), and the non-MAs tended to do more physical activities (20.7% vs. 15.4–15.8%, p &lt; 0.001). Obese people with BMI≥30 were more in MA groups, especially in the MA 5, than in the non-MA group (7.5% in non-MA, 9.3%–9.7% in MA 1–4, and 12.2% in MA 5, all, p &lt; 0.001).

80,257 were newly identified as AF in the retrospective 5 years. All the MA groups showed a higher risk of AF than the non-MA group: hazard ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) for each group, 1.44 (1.32–1.58) in MA 1, 1.58 (1.45–1.73) in MA 2, 1.52 (1.39–1.65) in MA 3, 1.53 (1.40–1.68) in MA 4, and 1.35 (1.24–1.45) in MA 5. Adjusting with multi-variables, the MA 5 showed 54% increased risk of AF compared to the non-MA group (HR, 1.54, [95% CI, 1.42–1.67]). (Fig. 2)

Conclusion

The risk of AF increased more than 50% in patients who needed medical aid 5 years in a row, and the risk also rose greatly in patients with only a short experience of socioeconomic hardship. Based on the findings, we need more attention to individuals with recent socioeconomic deprivation to provide timely management for AF and its complications. Abstract Figure. Fig. 1

Cardiovascular primary prevention risk factors in a nationwide survey, ABC (atrial fibrillation, high blood pressure and high cholesterol) risk factors in the LIPIDOGRAM2015 study

Background

The National Health Service in England “Long Term Plan” aims to prevent 150,000 strokes and myocardial infarctions over the next 10 years. To achieve this, resources are being allocated to improve early detection of conditions strongly associated with cardiovascular disease. This includes working towards people routinely knowing their “ABC” risk factors (“A”: atrial fibrillation (AF), “B': hypertension and “C”: high cholesterol) (1).

Purpose

The aims of this study were to: 1) determine the proportion of participants with “A”, “B”, and “C” criteria; and 2) to identify risk factors for patients fulfilling any of these criteria.

Methods

LIPIDOGRAM2015 was a nationwide cross-sectional survey for adults in Poland. Adults were recruited in 2015 and 2016 by 438 family physicians. For the ABC criteria, “A” was defined as AF identified in the medical records of the participant, “B” was defined as either systolic blood pressure greater than 140mmHg or diastolic blood pressure greater than 90mmHg or both, and “C” was defined as total cholesterol greater than 200mg/dL (5.17mmol/L). The scaled and centred dataset underwent principal component analysis using singular value decomposition to achieve dimensionality reduction. K-means clustering was used to stratify patients with Hartigan's rule being used to identify optimal K number (2–4). The p-value for statistical significance used in this study was p&lt;0.01 unless otherwise specified.

Results

13,724 patients were included in the study. 71.0% (n=9,747) of participants fulfilled the criteria for one or more of the “A”, “B” or “C” components (Fig. 1). 26 variables were used in this analysis with Principal Component Analysis showing 7 principal components explaining over 50% of the variance with 20 components explaining over 90%. K-means clustering was also performed, finding 39 separate clusters. Correlations and statistical significance tests showed a high degree of variability between variables. Participants with AF were older (mean (SD) 67.7 (9.5) vs 55.7 (13.7), p&lt;0.0001), with higher prevalence of concomitant coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR 6.73, 95% CL 5.75, 7.87) and ischaemic stroke (OR 13.45, 95% CL 7.66, 23.6). Participants with hypertension were older (mean (SD) 60.1 (SD 12.4) vs 53.8 (14.0), p&lt;0.0001), with a higher BMI (mean (SD) 29.9 (5.1) vs 27.5 (4.8), p&lt;0.0001) and resting heart rate (mean (SD) 75.7 (10.7) vs 72.7 (8.9), p&lt;0.0001), more likely to be male (OR 1.42, 95% CL 1.32, 1.53) and have diabetes (OR 1.61, 95% CL 1.46, 1.78). Participants with high cholesterol showed an inverse correlation with prevalence of both concomitant diabetes (OR 0.85, 95% CL 0.77, 0.94) and CHD (OR 0.85, 95% CL 0.76, 0.94) (Fig. 2).

Conclusion

Simple demographic and clinical variables could be used to guide targeted screening to increase population awareness of “ABC” status, allowing for a greater proportion of the population to be appropriately managed with cardiovascular prevention strategies.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None. “ABC” Venn diagramCorrelogram and significance plot

Cardiovascular events in metabolically healthy obese. A nationwide cohort study

Background

Obesity is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and has been increasing globally over the past 40 years in many countries worldwide. Metabolic abnormalities such as hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus are commonly associated and may mediate some of the deleterious effects of obesity. A subset of obese individuals without obesity-related metabolic abnormalities may be classified as being “metabolically healthy obese” (MHO). We aimed to evaluate the associations among MHO individuals and different types of incident cardiovascular events in a contemporary population at a nationwide level.

Methods

From the national hospitalization discharge database, all patients discharged from French hospitals in 2013 with at least 5 years or follow-up and without a history of major adverse cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, heart failure [HF], ischemic stroke or cardiovascular death, MACE-HF) or underweight/ malnutrition were identified. They were categorized by phenotypes defined by obesity and 3 metabolic abnormalities (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia). In total, 2,953,816 individuals were included in the analysis, among whom 272,838 (9.5%) were obese. We evaluated incidence rates and hazard ratios for MACE-HF, cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, new-onset HF and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). Adjustments were made on age, sex and smoking status at baseline.

Results

During a mean follow-up of 4.9 years, obese individuals with no metabolic abnormalities had a higher risk of MACE-HF (multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19–1.24), new-onset HF (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.31–1.37), and AF (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.30–1.37) compared with non-obese individuals with 0 metabolic abnormalities. By contrast, risks were not higher for myocardial infarction (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87–0.98), ischemic stroke (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.88–0.98) and cardiovascular death (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.93–1.04). In the models fully adjusted on all baseline characteristics, obesity was independently associated with a higher risk of MACE-HF events (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.12–1.14), of new-onset HF (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.18–1.20) and new-onset AF (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.28–1.31). This was not the case for the association of obesity with cardiovascular death (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94–0.98), myocardial infarction (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91–0.95) and ischemic stroke (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91–0.96).

Conclusions

Metabolically healthy obese individuals do not have a higher risk of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke or cardiovascular death than metabolically healthy non-obese individuals. By contrast they have a higher risk of new-onset HF and new onset AF. Even individuals who are non-obese can have metabolic abnormalities and be at high risk of cardiovascular disease events. Our observations suggest that specific studies investigating different aggressive preventive measures in specific subgroups of patients are warranted.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.