Cost-utility analysis of prenatal diagnosis of congenital cardiac diseases using deep learning

BACKGROUND

Deep learning (DL) is a new technology that can assist prenatal ultrasound (US) in the detection of congenital heart disease (CHD) at the prenatal stage. Hence, an economic-epidemiologic evaluation (aka Cost-Utility Analysis) is required to assist policymakers in deciding whether to adopt the new technology.

METHODS

The incremental cost-utility ratios (CUR), of adding DL assisted ultrasound (DL-US) to the current provision of US plus pulse oximetry (POX), was calculated by building a spreadsheet model that integrated demographic, economic epidemiological, health service utilization, screening performance, survival and lifetime quality of life data based on the standard formula: CUR = Increase in Intervention Costs - Decrease in Treatment costs Averted QALY losses of adding DL to US & POX US screening data were based on real-world operational routine reports (as opposed to research studies). The DL screening cost of 145 USD was based on Israeli US costs plus 20.54 USD for reading and recording screens.

RESULTS

The addition of DL assisted US, which is associated with increased sensitivity (95% vs 58.1%), resulted in far fewer undiagnosed infants (16 vs 102 [or 2.9% vs 15.4%] of the 560 and 659 births, respectively). Adoption of DL-US will add 1,204 QALYs. with increased screening costs 22.5 million USD largely offset by decreased treatment costs (20.4 million USD). Therefore, the new DL-US technology is considered "very cost-effective", costing only 1,720 USD per QALY. For most performance combinations (sensitivity > 80%, specificity > 90%), the adoption of DL-US is either cost effective or very cost effective. For specificities greater than 98% (with sensitivities above 94%), DL-US (& POX) is said to "dominate" US (& POX) by providing more QALYs at a lower cost.

CONCLUSION

Our exploratory CUA calculations indicate the feasibility of DL-US as being at least cost-effective.

Multinational Analysis of Estimated Health Care Costs Related to Extended-Interval Fixed Dosing of Checkpoint Inhibitors

IMPORTANCE

New dosing options for immune checkpoint inhibitors have recently been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), including fixed dosing with extended intervals. Although the dose intensity appears the same, there is expected to be some waste with extended-interval dosing, as some drug remains in the bloodstream once a decision to stop treatment is made. The economic impact of extended-interval fixed dosing is unknown compared with standard-interval fixed dosing.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the potential health care costs of using extended-interval fixed dosing instead of standard-interval fixed dosing.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This economic evaluation used a pharmacoeconomic model to simulate 2 cohorts of patients with platinum-resistant metastatic urothelial cancer receiving pembrolizumab as second-line therapy at different dosing intervals using 2020 pricing data. Data were analyzed from 2020 to 2022.

EXPOSURES

The simulated patients received FDA-approved regimens of either 200 mg every 3 weeks or 400 mg every 6 weeks.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The progression-free survival curve from the KEYNOTE-045 trial was used to estimate treatment duration. Drug, imaging, and administration costs were included in analyses. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess how different imaging frequencies would affect the model results. The potential overall costs of using the 2 different dosing strategies were assessed. The base case was set in the US, while sensitivity analyses were set in several other countries.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, dosing every 6 weeks instead of every 3 weeks resulted in an estimated 8.9% increase in pembrolizumab costs for the health care payer. Accounting for a decrease in infusion costs would result in an estimated net additional cost of $7483 per patient in the US (7.9% cost increase). In the US, this would amount to an increase of approximately $28 million annually for health care payers. Similar percentages in cost estimate increases were found for health care payers around the world, such as in Israel, where the net additional cost would be $5491 per patient.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This economic evaluation assessed and quantified the potential increased costs related to extended-interval fixed dosing of pembrolizumab. The model method could be applied to other diseases and other drugs for which there has been a movement toward extended-interval dosing. Results may differ in other diseases owing to differing disease courses and patient profiles.

Cost utility analysis of HIV pre exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in Israel

Background

Between 2011 and 2015, Men who have sex with men (MSM) accounted for nearly half of new HIV cases among men in Israel. This study carries out a cost-utility analysis of PrEP (HIV Pre Exposure Prophylaxis), an antiretroviral medication that can protect against the acquisition of HIV infection, whose incidence rate in Israel is around 1.74 per 1000 MSM.

Method

Epidemiological, demographic, health service utilisation and economic data were integrated into a spread-sheet model in order to calculate the cost per averted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of the intervention from a societal perspective, in mid-2018 US$ using a 3% discount rate. Cost utility analyses were performed for both types of PrEP delivery (continuous regimen and on-demand), together with sensitivity analyses on numbers of condom users who take up PrEP (baseline 25%) and subsequently abandon condom use (baseline 75%), PrEP efficacy (baseline 86%), PrEP prices and monitoring costs.

Results

Around 21.3% of MSM are high risk (as defined by having unprotected anal intercourse). Offering PrEP to this group would have a ten year net cost of around 1563 million USD, preventing 493 persons from becoming HIV-positive, averting around 1616 DALYs at a cost per averted DALY of around 967,744 USD. This will render the intervention to be not cost-effective. PrEP drug prices would have to fall dramatically (by 90.7%) for the intervention to become cost-effective (i.e. having a cost per averted DALY less than thrice GNP per capita) in Israel. PrEP remains not cost-effective (at 475,673 USD per averted DALY) even if intervention costs were reduced by using an “on demand” instead of a daily schedule. Even if there were no changes in condom use, the resultant 411,694 USD cost-utility ratio is still not cost-effective.

Conclusions

Despite PrEPs high effectiveness against HIV, PrEP was found not to be cost-effective in the Israeli context because of a combination of relatively low HIV incidence, high PrEP costs, with a likelyhood that some low-risk MSM (ie: who use condoms) may well begin taking PrEP and as a consequence many of these will abandon condom use. Therefore, ways of minimizing these last two phenomena need to be found.

Should we use Palivizumab immunoprophylaxis for infants against respiratory syncytial virus? - a cost-utility analysis

BACKGROUND

Passive immunization against RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) is given in most western countries (including Israel) to infants of high risk groups such as premature babies, and infants with Congenital Heart Disease or Congenital Lung Disease. However, immunoprophylaxis costs are extremely high ($2800-$4200 per infant). Using cost-utility analysis criteria, we evaluate whether it is justified to expand, continue or restrict nationwide immunoprophylaxis using palivizumab of high risk infants against RSV.

METHODS

Epidemiological, demographic, health service utilisation and economic data were integrated from primary (National Hospitalization Data, etc.) and secondary data sources (ie: from published articles) into a spread-sheet to calculate the cost per averted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of vaccinating various infant risk groups. Costs of intervention included antibody plus administration costs. Treatment savings and DALYs averted were estimated from applying vaccine efficacy data to relative risks of being hospitalised and treated for RSV, including possible long-term sequelae like asthma and wheezing.

RESULTS

For all the groups RSV immunoprophylaxis is clearly not cost effective as its cost per averted DALY exceeds the $105,986 guideline representing thrice the per capita Gross Domestic Product. Vaccine price would have to fall by 48.1% in order to justify vaccinating Congenital Heart Disease or Congenital Lung Disease risk groups respectively on pure cost-effectiveness grounds. For premature babies of < 29 weeks, 29-32 and 33-36 weeks gestation, decreases of 36.8%, 54.5% and 83.3% respectively in vaccine price are required.

CONCLUSIONS

Based solely on cost-utility analysis, at current price levels it is difficult to justify the current indications for passive vaccination with Palivizumab against RSV. However, if the manufacturers would reduce the price by 54.5% then it would be cost-effective to vaccinate the Congenital Heart Disease or Congenital Lung Disease risk groups as well as premature babies born before the 33rd week of gestation.

Mortality, hospital days and treatment costs of current and reduced sugar consumption in Israel

BACKGROUND

Consumption of sugar causes tooth decay, overweight and obesity related morbidities. This paper in response to the Minister of Health's request, provides estimates of the mortality, morbidity and health care costs attributable to sugar consumption in Israel along with the effects of reducing sugar consumption.

METHODS

Gender specific relative risks of many diseases from overweight (25 < =BMI < 30) and obesity (BMI > =30) were applied to the national gender specific prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in order to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF) from overweight and obesity. National expenditure on these related diseases was calculated by applying disease-specific data from a recent Canadian study to estimates of disease specific general hospital expenditures in Israel. Disease specific costs attributable to overweight and obesity were estimated from the product of these expenditures and PAF. In addition national costs of treating caries in persons under 18 years of age from sugar were calculated. Similar calculations were made to estimate the burden from sugar in terms of mortality and hospital utilisation. A recent UK modelling study was used to estimate the effect of a national program to reduce calorific consumption of sugar from 12.45 to 10% in 5 years.

RESULTS

Conditions associated with overweight or obesity accounted annually for 6402 deaths (95% CI 3296-8760) and 268,009 hospital days. Dental costs attributable to sugar consumption were 264 million NIS. In total, obesity, overweight and sugar consumption accounted for 2449 million in direct treatment costs (0.21% of GDP), rising to 4027 million (0.35% of GDP) when indirect costs were included. A national program of reducing energy from sugar consumption from 12.45 to 10% over 5 years is considered have a very feasible short-term goal. Even if the program does not impose taxes on sugar consumption, this would save 778 million NIS as well as 1184 lives.

CONCLUSION

Sugar consumption causes a huge monetary and mortality burden. Estimates of potential decreases in this burden justify the current prioritisation given by the health minister of creating and implementing a national program to reduce sugar consumption, which is likely to be cost-saving (ie: averted treatment costs will exceed intervention costs).

Mortality, hospital days and expenditures attributable to ambient air pollution from particulate matter in Israel

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, ambient air pollution accounts for around 3.7 million deaths annually. Measuring the burden of disease is important not just for advocacy but also is a first step towards carrying out a full cost-utility analysis in order to prioritise technological interventions that are available to reduce air pollution (and subsequent morbidity and mortality) from industrial, power generating and vehicular sources.

METHODS

We calculated the average national exposure to particulate matter particles less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in diameter by weighting readings from 52 (non-roadside) monitoring stations by the population of the catchment area around the station. The PM2.5 exposure level was then multiplied by the gender and cause specific (Acute Lower Respiratory Infections, Asthma, Circulatory Diseases, Coronary Heart Failure, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Diabetes, Ischemic Heart Disease, Lung Cancer, Low Birth Weight, Respiratory Diseases and Stroke) relative risks and the national age, cause and gender specific mortality (and hospital utilisation which included neuro-degenerative disorders) rates to arrive at the estimated mortality and hospital days attributable to ambient PM2.5 pollution in Israel in 2015. We utilised a WHO spread-sheet model, which was expanded to include relative risks (based on more recent meta-analyses) of sub-sets of other diagnoses in two additional models.

RESULTS

Mortality estimates from the three models were 1609, 1908 and 2253 respectively in addition to 184,000, 348,000 and 542,000 days hospitalisation in general hospitals. Total costs from PM2.5 pollution (including premature burial costs) amounted to $544 million, $1030 million and $1749 million respectively (or 0.18 %, 0.35 % and 0.59 % of GNP).

CONCLUSIONS

Subject to the caveat that our estimates were based on a limited number of non-randomly sited stations exposure data. The mortality, morbidity and monetary burden of disease attributable to air pollution from particulate matter in Israel is of sufficient magnitude to warrant the consideration of and prioritisation of technological interventions that are available to reduce air pollution from industrial, power generating and vehicular sources. The accuracy of our burden estimates would be improved if more precise estimates of population exposure were to become available in the future.

Cost-utility analysis of a nationwide vaccination programme against serogroup B meningococcal disease in Israel

OBJECTIVES

Using cost-utility analysis, to evaluate whether or not to adopt a Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B vaccination programme for Israeli children.

METHODS

Epidemiological, demographic, health service utilisation and economic data were integrated into a spreadsheet model to calculate the cost per averted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of the intervention.

RESULTS

Assuming 78 % vaccine efficacy with no herd immunity, vaccination will prevent 223 cases and 22 deaths over a 100-year period. Based on vaccine price of $60 per dose, total intervention costs ($315,400,000) are partially offset by a $22,700,000 reduction in treatment and sequelae costs as a result of decreased morbidity. The intervention was not cost-effective since the net cost ($292,700,000) per averted DALY gained (1249 mostly due to decreased mortality) was $234,394. Additional two dose catch-up programmes vaccinating children in cohorts aged 1-2 to 1-13 were also not cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The vaccination will become cost-effective if vaccine costs fall below $19.44 per dose. However, in identified high risk areas, the vaccine would be cost-effective and could be recommended for use both with and without catch-up campaigns.

The burden of smoking in Israel-attributable mortality and costs (2014)

BACKGROUND

Tobacco use is the single most preventable cause of death, incurring huge resource costs in terms of treating morbidity and lost productivity. This paper estimates smoking attributable mortality (SAM) as health costs in 2014 in Israel.

METHODS

Longitudinal data on prevalence of smokers and ex-smokers were combined with diagnostic and gender specific data on Relative Risks (RR) to gender and disease specific population attributable risks (PAR). PAR was then applied to mortality and hospitalization data from 2011, adjusted by population growth to 2014 to calculate SAM and hospitalization days (SAHD) caused by active smoking. These were used as a base for calculating deaths, hospital days and costs attributable to passive smoking, smoking by pregnant women, residential fires and productivity losses based on international literature.

RESULTS

The lagged model estimated active SAM in Israel in 2014 to be 7,025 deaths. Cardio-vascular causes accounted for 45.0% of SAM, malignant neoplasms (39.2%) and respiratory diseases (15.5%). Lung cancer alone accounted for 24.1% of SAM. There were an estimated 793, 17 and 12 deaths from passive smoking, mothers-to-be smoking and residential fires. Total SAM is around 7,847 deaths (95% CI 7,698-7,997) in 2014. We estimated 319,231 active SAHD days (95% CI 313,135-325,326). Respiratory care accounted for around one-half of active SAHD (50.5%). Cardio-Vascular causes for 33.5% and malignant neoplasms (13.2%). Lung cancer only for 4.6%. Total SAHD was around 356,601 days including 36,049 days from passive smoking. Estimated direct acute care costs of 356,601 days in a general hospital amount to around 849 (95% CI 832-865) million NIS ($244 million). Non acute care costs amount to an additional 830 million NIS ($238 million). The total health service costs amount to 1,678 million NIS (95% CI 1,646-1,710) or $482 million, 0.2% of GNP. Productivity losses account for a further 1,909 million NIS ($548 million), giving an overall smoking related cost of 3,587 million NIS (95% CI 3,519-3,656) or $1,030 million, 0.41% of GNP).

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking causes a considerable burden in Israel, both in terms of the expected 7,847 lives lost and the financial costs of around 3.6 million NIS ($1,030 million or 0.42% of GNP).

Generalizability of cost-utility analyses across countries and settings

All societies have limited resources, so decisions have to be made about which public health interventions should be provided. A major tool used for prioritisation is cost-utility analysis (CUA) where the outcomes are measured in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) prevented. Collecting data and building models to calculate the ratio of net costs (i.e.: intervention costs less treatment costs averted due to decreases in morbidity and mortality) to outcomes (CUR) is complex and time consuming. Therefore, there is a great appeal in using CUA calculations that have already been published in other countries. This paper points out the many limitations and inaccuracies caused by generalizing results from CUAs across different countries. However, if time constraints are pressing then first-order estimates of results could be presented after adjustments for the major drivers of the CUR, such as incidence rates, intervention costs and averted treatment costs.

Should Israel screen all mothers-to-be to prevent early-onset of neonatal group B streptococcal disease? A cost-utility analysis

BACKGROUND

In Israel, an average of 37 children are born each year with sepsis and another four with meningitis as a result of Group B Streptococcal (GBS) disease. Israel currently only screens mothers with defined risk factors (around 15% of all pregnancies) in order to identify candidates for Intrapartum Antiobiotic Prophyhlaxis (IAP) of GBS. This paper presents a cost-utility analysis of implementing an alternative strategy, which would expand the current protocol to one aiming to screen all pregnant women at 35-37 weeks gestation based on taking a vaginal culture for GBS.

METHODS

A spreadsheet model was built incorporating technical, epidemiological, health service costs, demographic and economic data based primarily on Israeli sources.

RESULTS

The intervention of universal screening (compared with the current scenario) would increase screening costs from 580,000 NIS to 3,278,000 million NIS. In addition, the intervention would also increase penicillin costs from 39,000 NIS to 221,000 NIS. Current culture screening of approximately 15% of mothers-to-be with high risk factors resulted in 42 GBS births in 2008-9 (0.253/1000 births). Expanding culture screening to 85% of mothers-to-be, will decrease the number of GBS births to 17.3 (0.104/1000 births). The initial 2.9 million NIS incremental intervention costs are offset by decreased treatment costs of 1.9 million NIS and work productivity gains of 811,000 NIS as a result of a decrease in neurological sequelae from GBS caused meningitis. Thus the resultant net cost of the intervention is only around 134,000 NIS. Culture based screening will reduce the burden of disease by 12.6 discounted Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYS), giving a very cost effective baseline incremental cost per QALY (cf. risk factor screening) of 10,641 NIS per QALY. The data was very sensitive to rates of anaphylactic shock and changes in the percentage of meningitis cases that had associated long term-sequelae.

CONCLUSION

It is recommended that Israel adopt universal culture-based GBS screening.

Economic effects of interventions to reduce obesity in Israel

BACKGROUND

Obesity is a major risk factor for many diseases. The paper calculates the economic impact and the cost per Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) resulting from the adoption of eight interventions comprising the clinical and part of the community components of the National Prevention and Health Promotion Program (NPHPP) of the Israeli Ministry of Health (MOH) which represents the obesity control implementation arm of the MOH Healthy Israel 2020 Initiative.

METHODS

Health care costs per person were calculated by body mass index (BMI) by applying Israeli cost data to aggregated results from international studies. These were applied to BMI changes from eight intervention programmes in order to calculate reductions in direct treatment costs. Indirect cost savings were also estimated as were additional costs due to increased longevity of program participants. Data on costs and QALYs gained from Israeli and International dietary interventions were combined to provide cost-utility estimates of an intervention program to reduce obesity in Israel over a range of recidivism rates.

RESULTS

On average, persons who were overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30)had health care costs that were 12.2% above the average health care costs of persons with normal or sub-normal weight to height ratios (BMI < 25). This differential in costs rose to 31.4% and 73.0% for obese and severely obese persons, respectively.For overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30) and obese persons (30 ≤ BMI < 40), costs per person for the interventions (including the screening overhead) ranged from 35 NIS for a community intervention to 860 NIS, reflecting the intensity of the clinical setting intervention and the unit costs of the professionals carrying out the intervention [e.g., dietician]. Expected average BMI decreases ranged from 0.05 to 0.90. Higher intervention costs and larger BMI decreases characterized the two clinical lifestyle interventions for the severely obese (BMI ≥ 40).A program directed at the entire Israeli population aged 20 and over, using a variety of eight different interventions would cost 2.07 billion NIS overall. In the baseline scenario (with an assumed recidivism rate of 50% per annum), approximately 620,000,000 NIS would be recouped in the form of decreased treatment costs and indirect costs, increased productivity and decreased absenteeism. After discounting the 89,000,000 NIS additional health costs attributable to these extra life years, it is estimated that the total net costs to society would be 1.55 billion NIS. This total net cost was relatively stable to increases in the program's recidivism rates, but highly sensitive to reductions in recidivism rates.Under baseline assumptions, implementation of the cluster of interventions would save 32,671 discounted QALYs at a cost of only 47,559 NIS per QALY, less than half of the Israeli per capita GNP (104,000 NIS). Thus implementation of these components of the NPHPP should be considered very cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

Despite the large costs of such a large national program to control obesity, cost-utility analysis strongly supports its introduction.

Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the costs and health effects of interventions to combat breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers in order to guide resource allocation decisions in developing countries.

SETTING

Two World Health Organization sub-regions of the world: countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality (AfrE); and countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality (SearD).

DESIGN

Cost effectiveness analysis of prevention and treatment strategies for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer, using mathematical modelling based on a lifetime population model.

DATA SOURCES

Demographic and epidemiological data were taken from the WHO mortality and global burden of disease databases. Estimates of intervention coverage, effectiveness, and resource needs were based on clinical trials, treatment guidelines, and expert opinion. Unit costs were taken from the WHO-CHOICE price database.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted, expressed in international dollars ($Int) for the year 2005.

RESULTS

In both regions certain interventions in cervical cancer control (screening through cervical smear tests or visual inspection with acetic acid in combination with treatment) and colorectal cancer control (increasing the coverage of treatment interventions) cost <$Int2000 per DALY averted and can be considered highly cost effective. In the sub-Saharan African region screening for colorectal cancer (by colonoscopy at age 50 in combination with treatment) costs $Int2000-6000 per DALY averted and can be considered cost effective. In both regions certain interventions in breast cancer control (treatment of all cancer stages in combination with mammography screening) cost $Int2000-6000 per DALY averted and can also be considered cost effective. Other interventions, such as campaigns to eat more fruit and vegetable or subsidies in colorectal cancer control, are not cost effective according to the criteria defined.

CONCLUSION

Highly cost effective interventions to combat cervical and colorectal cancer are available in the African and Asian sub-regions. In cervical cancer control, these include screening through smear tests or visual inspection in combination with treatment. In colorectal cancer, increasing treatment coverage is highly cost effective (screening through colonoscopy is cost effective in the African sub-region). In breast cancer control, mammography screening in combination with treatment of all stages is cost effective.

Prevention, screening and treatment of colorectal cancer: a global and regional generalized cost effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Regional generalized cost-effectiveness estimates of prevention, screening and treatment interventions for colorectal cancer are presented.

METHODS

Standardised WHO-CHOICE methodology was used. A colorectal cancer model was employed to provide estimates of screening and treatment effectiveness. Intervention effectiveness was determined via a population state-transition model (PopMod) that simulates the evolution of a sub-regional population accounting for births, deaths and disease epidemiology. Economic costs of procedures and treatment were estimated, including programme overhead and training costs.

RESULTS

In regions characterised by high income, low mortality and high existing treatment coverage, the addition of screening to the current high treatment levels is very cost-effective, although no particular intervention stands out in cost-effectiveness terms relative to the others.In regions characterised by low income, low mortality with existing treatment coverage around 50%, expanding treatment with or without screening is cost-effective or very cost-effective. Abandoning treatment in favour of screening (no treatment scenario) would not be cost effective.In regions characterised by low income, high mortality and low treatment levels, the most cost-effective intervention is expanding treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

From a cost-effectiveness standpoint, screening programmes should be expanded in developed regions and treatment programmes should be established for colorectal cancer in regions with low treatment coverage.

Issues in estimating smoking attributable mortality in Israel

BACKGROUND

The US Centres for Disease Control provides a widely used online user-friendly computational program, called SAMMEC (Smoking Attributable Mortality, Morbidity and Economic Costs) to produce estimates of tobacco-related mortality. However, the SAMMEC tool loses accuracy because it lacks flexibility in deciding which diseases enter into the calculations, has estimates of relative risk (RR) attributable to smoking based on old studies, and does not allow for the latency period that occurs between initial exposure and mortality.

METHODS

Smoking attributable mortality (SAM) due to active smoking in Israel was estimated with the approach used by SAMMEC taking into account past and present smoking prevalence (lag-times) as well as using new and expanded disease categories.

RESULTS

Around 50.3% of the increase from the un-lagged SAM estimate of 3859 deaths to the final SAM estimate of 8664 deaths in 2003 is attributable to the introduction of lag times. More robust estimates of risk accounted for a further 29.6% of the increase. While 21.2% is attributable to the inclusion of additional disease categories, only 1.5% was attributable to the widening of existing diseases categories.

CONCLUSION

This difference in estimates is attributable to expansion of the list of diseases included, updating the estimates of RR for smoking-attributable death, and the use of smoking prevalence from previous years to more accurately reflect the effect of tobacco use on disease occurrence. There is a need to establish an 'authority' to implement a multi-faceted intervention strategy to decrease the considerable burden from smoking in Israel.

Risk factor profile and achievement of treatment goals among hypertensive patients from the Israeli Blood Pressure Control (IBPC) program--initial cost utility analysis

AIMS

Blood pressure (BP) reduction is crucial in reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The IBPC (Israeli Blood Pressure Control) program was initiated in order to enhance the control of modifiable risk factors among high-risk hypertensive patients under follow-up by general practitioners in Israel. The cost effectiveness of an intervention program is an important factor in the decision-making process of its implementation and therefore was evaluated here. The objective of this evaluation is to estimate the costs, monetary savings and benefits in terms of QALYs (quality-adjusted life years) that would be expected if the program were to be expanded to 100 clinics nationwide, enabling around 14800 persons to be treated.

METHODS

Hypertensive patients were screened in 30 general practice clinics, supervised by specialists in family medicine, each seeing 1000-5000 patients; 50-250 hypertensive patients were diagnosed at each participating clinic. BP levels, body mass index (BMI), lipid and glucose levels, as well as target organ damage and medications were recorded for all patients.

RESULTS

A total of 4948 (2079, 42% males) were registered. Mean age was 64.8 +/- 12 years. After 1 year of follow-up versus baseline, the various parameters were as follows: BP control was achieved in 46.4% vs 29% of all hypertensive patients. LDL control (JNC VI criteria) was achieved in 41.7% vs 31.2% of all patients. Fasting plasma glucose control (glucose < 126 mg/dl) was achieved in 22% vs 19% of diabetic patients and 5.2% vs 3.1% of the diabetics had fasting plasma glucose levels > 200 mg/dl. Obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m2) was noted in 36.7% vs 43.8% at baseline. The cost utility analysis of the reduction in risk factors was calculated based on the international dicta applied to the reduction in risk factors as a result of treatment. For 100 clinics nationwide and 14800 persons to be treated the net saving to health services would be $977993 and the increase in QALYs would be 602 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Better risk factor control in hypertensive patients by general practitioners could reduce morbidity and mortality as well as be cost effective.

Cost containment analysis of childhood vaccination against varicella in Israel

OBJECTIVES

The low cost of safe and effective vaccines prompted a cost-containment evaluation of a nationwide vaccination campaign against varicella.

METHODS

A model incorporating demographic, epidemiologic and economic data from Israeli sources (supplemented by data from International literature) was constructed to estimate the decrease in morbidity and the consequent reductions in treatment costs and time-off work of a nationwide programme vaccinating children at 12 months.

RESULTS

A policy of aiming to immunize a cohort of all 1-year-olds in Israel in the year 2002, for an annual cost of $1.10 million to the health services and $1.27 million to society (including lost work and transport costs), would reduce the number of cases of varicella during the lifetime of a cohort from 123,984 to 10,170 cases. This morbidity reduction would reduce national expenditures by $1.80 million in health service resources alone and by $24.5 million to society, mainly due to inaverted work absences. In addition an estimated 0.93 lives, representing 38.6 life years will be saved in the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Under an assumption of neutrality relating to the potential effects of vaccination on herpes zoster virus, our model based calculations show that a national varicella vaccination programme is likely to be cost saving, not only from a societal perspective but also from the narrower health service perspective.

The Ashkelon Hypertension Detection and Control Program (AHDC Program): a community approach to reducing cardiovascular mortality

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure (BP) reduction is crucial in reducing cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality in the community. Subjects aged 20-65 seldom visit the primary care clinics, so they are unlikely to be detected without an active outreach screening program. The aim of the project was to prepare a professional doctor-nurse screening team, who will instruct those found to be at high risk in control of their risk factors, in order to reduce CV morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

During a 10-year period (1980-1990), teams examined 12,202 subjects, (mean age 51 +/- 7 years, range 20-65 years) accounting for 23.4% of the total regional population. High risk subjects underwent an intensive CV risk factor control program.

RESULTS

Subjects (3,506 or 28.6%) were found to have one or more CV risk factors (hypertension, obesity, smoking, hypercholesterolemia). During an average of 2 years, follow-up BP, weight reduction, and smoking cessation remained statistically significant. Total cholesterol was unchanged. Over this period, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) in the area for acute MI fell from 100 to 76 (P < 0.01), for CV disease from 129 to 107 (P < 0.0001), and for hypertension from 121 to 87 (P < 0.1 NS). The project saved many life-years at no additional net cost to society, and cost effectiveness analysis showed positive results.

CONCLUSIONS

A community approach with mainly nonpharmacological treatment is feasible and cost effective in reducing CV morbidity and mortality.

Standardized mortality ratios by region of residence, Israel, 1987-1994: a tool for public health policy

BACKGROUND

Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) are used internationally to compare health status across regions and to identify high risk areas for investigation of specific diseases, for funding determination, and for planning purposes.

OBJECTIVE

To ascertain regional differences in SMRs by sub-District in Israel for 1987-1994.

METHOD

The indirect method of standardization of mortality rates with adjustment for age, gender, and continent of birth was used to calculate SMRs by major cause of death, by sub-District of residence for the Jewish population of Israel.

RESULTS

SMRs for all causes of death ranged from regions with low rates (Petah Tikva, Sharon, Rehovot, Ashkelon, and Jerusalem) to those with high rates (Zefat/Golan, Hadera, Yizreel, Ramla, Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Be'er Sheva) (all p<0.0001). Zefat's SMRs are elevated for acute myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, and motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). Haifa's SMRs are high for all cardiovascular diseases, liver disease, MVAs, and lung cancer. Be'er Sheva residents had high SMRs for diabetes, liver disease, MVAs, some categories of cardiovascular disease, cervical cancer, and homicide. Yizreel had high SMRs for diabetes, hypertension, stroke, liver disease, and MVAs. Tel Aviv had elevated SMRs for septicemia, acute MI, perinatal causes, and colon, lung and breast cancer. Jerusalem (p<0.0001) and Kinneret residents (p<0.05) had low SMRs for everything except congenital anomalies.

CONCLUSIONS

Regional SMR differences, adjusted for age, gender, and ethnicity, may be due to socioeconomic, nutritional, environmental, occupational, or health care factors. SMRs provide a tool to identify regions for epidemiological investigation and priorities for preventive interventions. Regional health monitoring should be undertaken routinely on mortality data, as well as other national databases, as part of national health monitoring.

The burden of uncomplicated cases of chickenpox in Israel

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the direct medical burden and work loss associated with uncomplicated chickenpox in Israel.

METHODS

A total of 155 otherwise healthy children and adolescents with chickenpox were recruited from 10 physician offices in central Israel. Direct and indirect medical burdens were determined by caregiver interview.

RESULTS

Mean age was 3.3 +/- 2.3 years. 51% of the patients were under three years of age. Each patient made on average 1.15 visits to a general practitioner. Most patients were taken to the Doctor's office only once during the illness while 23 patients (15%) were seen twice. Three patients were referred to the emergency room. Antihistamines (39%) and Calamine lotion (28%) were the most frequently prescribed medications, followed by acyclovir (17%) and antibiotics (6%). Following the patient's illness there were 72 cases of secondary spread of varicella to household members. The individuals who cared for the child missed a combined total of 2.5 days from work (on average per varicella episode).

CONCLUSIONS

Israeli children acquire chickenpox at a younger age than children in North America and England and consume more prescribed medications. While the work loss in the present study was comparable to previous reports, the direct medical costs inflicted by this infection in Israel are not negligible even for uncomplicated cases.

Economic evaluation of vaccination programmes: a consensus statement focusing on viral hepatitis

The methods that have been used to estimate the clinical and economic impact of vaccination programmes are not always uniform, which makes it difficult to compare results between economic analyses. Furthermore, the relative efficiency of vaccination programmes can be sensitive to some of the more controversial aspects covered by general guidelines for the economic evaluation of healthcare programmes, such as discounting of health gains and the treatment of future unrelated costs. In view of this, we interpret some aspects of these guidelines with respect to vaccination and offer recommendations for future analyses. These recommendations include more transparency and validation, more careful choice of models (tailored to the infection and the target groups), more extensive sensitivity analyses, and for all economic evaluations (also nonvaccine related) to be in better accordance with general guidelines. We use these recommendations to interpret the evidence provided by economic evaluation applied to viral hepatitis vaccination. We conclude that universal hepatitis B vaccination (of neonates, infants or adolescents) seems to be the most optimal strategy worldwide, except in the few areas of very low endemicity, where the evidence to enable a choice between selective and universal vaccination remains inconclusive. While targeted hepatitis A vaccination seems economically unattractive, universal hepatitis A vaccination strategies have not yet been sufficiently investigated to draw general conclusions.

Independence in instrumental activities of daily living and its effect on mortality

Factors relating to six-year mortality in a representative sample of seventy-year-old Jerusalem residents (N = 605) were investigated using logistic regression techniques. Around 16.3% of the study population died during the six-year post-interview period. Bivariate analysis found elevated mortality related to being male, having more than one IADL dysfunction, more than two ADL dysfunctions, financial problems, no social support in times of emergencies, bad self-rated health status, cognitive impairment, confinement to bed during the fortnight prior to interview, and lack of regular exercise. Logistic regression controlling for gender, various clinical diagnoses, financial state, social support and smoking status showed IADL (ROR = 4.57, 95% CI 1.51, 13.90), cognitive impairment (ROR = 3.99, 95% CI 1.85, 8.59) and having been bed-sick a week or more during the preceding fortnight (ROR = 6.60, 95% CI 1.00, 43.86) to be independent predictors of mortality. All persons who had a cognitive problem and were dysfunctional in more than two IADL categories, and 93.8% of persons who had been bed-sick and had more than one IADL dysfunction died during the study period. Combined measures of these three easily obtainable variables could prove a cheap and efficient method of identifying at-risk elderly persons in order to provide them with specific programs aimed at decreasing functional decline, and hence mortality.

Cost-utility analysis of total hip arthroplasties. Technology assessment of surgical procedures by mailed questionnaires

A retrospective study comparing 700 consecutive total hip arthroplasties, utilizing four types of implants, was performed. Questionnaires based on hip scores were sent to 593 living patients. Useful responses were received from 363 (61%) patients. Hip scores and quality-adjusted life-years were calculated. Multiple regression analysis, controlling for all possible biases, demonstrated one cementless implant as superior to all others. We believe that the use of mailed questionnaires is a simple and convenient system of follow-up, saving patients the need for outpatient clinic visits. The validity of such replies, however, has yet to be established.

Cancer in ex-asbestos cement workers in Israel, 1953-1992

A cohort of 3,057 male workers employed in an asbestos-cement plant using 90% chrysotile-10% crocidolite, located in Northern Israel, was followed from 1953-1992 for incidence and mortality from cancer. In the years 1978-1992, the cohort had an elevated risk for all malignant neoplasms combined (n = 153, SIR = 117, ns), lung cancer (n = 28, SIR = 135, ns), mesothelioma (n = 21; SIR > 5000, p < .0001), unspecified pleural cancer (n = 5; SIR = 278, P < .0001), and liver cancer (n = 7, SIR 290, ns). Risks for colo-rectal (n = 19; SIR = 79, ns), bladder (n = 12, SIR 69) and renal cancers (n = 5, SIR 104) were less than expected. Risk for mesothelioma showed a sharp risk gradient with duration of exposure, increasing from 1 per 625 for those employed less than 2 years to 1 per 4.5 workers employed over 30 years. The ratio of mesothelioma to excess lung cancer cases was 2.9 to 1, or 3.6 to 1, if pleural cases of unspecified origin were included; the pleura to peritoneum ratio of verified mesothelioma cases was 20 to 1. This atypically high ratio of mesothelioma to excess lung cancer cases is suggested to be the combined result of high past asbestos exposures in the workers and their low prior risk for lung cancer, and possibly, relatively early smoking cessation in relation to asbestos exposure.

An economic evaluation of the use of rare earth screens to reduce the radiation dose from diagnostic X-ray procedures in Israel

In Israel the diffusion of rare earth screen technology has been limited. These screens could halve the radiation dose to the patient from diagnostic X-ray radiography, with little managerial effort and without being detrimental to the quality of the diagnostic image. We estimated the total effective dose from diagnostic film radiography capable of reduction by the use of rare earth screens, based on the number of hospital and ambulatory diagnostic X-ray procedures. This number was multiplied by the computed radiation dose per body site for a series of diagnostic procedures. The annual dose was approximately 0.53 mSv per head, approximately half of which could be averted by the introduction of rare earth screen technology. Based on a fatality risk of 3% Sv-1, it is estimated that the adoption of rare earth screen technology might reduce the annual incidence of cancer by some 93 cases, half of which would be fatal after an average latency period of 18.4 years. The cost of purchasing rare earth screens on a nationwide basis is approximately $3.0 million. This cost is outweighed by a saving of $9.6 million in X-ray tube replacement costs over the period 1997-2006. Government legislation enforcing the use of rare earth screens is essential, because of the lack of prestige associated with acquiring rare earth technology, as well as institutional reluctance to accept the external benefits of reduced morbidity and mortality and/or to extend budgetary time horizons.

Cost-benefit analysis of riluzole for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

We conducted a cost-benefit analysis of riluzole therapy in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS; motor neuron disease; Lou Gehrig's disease). The survival of patients with ALS increased by around 3 months as a result of riluzole therapy, from 3 to 3.25 years. A 3-month delay in hospitalisation was also expected as a result of riluzole therapy, resulting in a saving of $US40 per patient (1996 values). This gain was opposed by the additional costs per patient of bi-monthly serum ALT monitoring ($US234), 2 days of extra day-hospital observation ($US369) and other medical costs ($US79), as well as extra outpatient visits ($US26) and costs of medication other than riluzole ($US90), resulting from increased longevity. Using riluzole (at a cost of $US2247 per patient) resulted in an extra burden of $US757 on health services for the gain of an extra 3 months of life expectancy. Thus, health-service costs per life-year gained were $US12,013. Despite the increase in health-service costs as a result of increased longevity, the overall resource benefits to society from using riluzole amounted to $US2884 due to increased productivity benefits, giving a benefit: cost ratio of 1.28:1. Total benefits to society, including a valuation of 3 extra months of life ($US3599), amounted to $US6483, giving a benefit: cost ratio of 2.89:1. Therefore, from a societal perspective, the potential benefits of riluzole in patients with ALS clearly exceed costs.

Hypertension in the Jerusalem 70 year olds study population: prevalence, awareness, treatment and control

As part of the Jerusalem 70 year olds study, we evaluated the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension (blood pressure > or = 160 mm Hg systolic and/or > or = 95 mm Hg diastolic, or current treatment with prescribed antihypertensive medications). The study cohort consisted of 448 participants, 224 of whom had hypertension. Relative to other populations, awareness was high (87%). Although the treatment rate was also relatively high (86%), the control rate was only 43%. Untreated isolated systolic hypertension was uncommon (5%), as was orthostatic hypotension (6.9%). Thus, despite a remarkable degree of awareness and treatment rate of hypertension, control levels were disappointingly low. This finding, if confirmed, requires further elucidation.

Language of dysfunction in schizophrenia

Twenty-four medicated schizophrenic subjects participated in a study aimed at assessing language dysfunction in schizophrenia. Two groups of subjects participated: schizophrenic responders and non-responders to treatment with antipsychotic medication. All subjects were tested on The Western Aphasia Battery test (WAB), the Cookie Theft picture descriptions task, and the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scales--Revised (WAIS-R) block design and picture arrangement subtests. All verbal and non-verbal assessments were compared between groups. The three main findings of this study were: 1. Severe language of dysfunction among schizophrenic patients who do not respond to medication treatment. That is, therapeutic response to medication was the major predictor of the severity of language dysfunction in schizophrenia. 2. A group profile of language dysfunction differed in severity but not in shape between responders and non-responders to treatment with antipsychotic medication. 3. Schizophrenic responders and non-responders to medication treatment did not differ in their performance on a standardised picture description task and failed to reach low-moderate aphasia level. Secondary findings suggest that non-verbal aspects, such as attention and logical sequencing, may be influenced by treatment. This study represents an assessment of schizophrenic language function in relation to known language deficits of neurological patients, lending further support for the role of central nervous system (CNS) dysfunction in schizophrenia, and the importance of assessing language dysfunction as a sensitive gauge to treatment response.

The Jerusalem seventy-year-old longitudinal study. I: Description of the initial cross-sectional survey

The main objectives of our first cross-section of a longitudinal study of a cohort of 70 year olds in Jerusalem, are to survey the social and medical conditions of the heterogeneous elderly population and to contribute to the knowledge of aging processes for specific age-groups. Whereas, most previous surveys were conducted on homogeneous and stable population groups, the elderly of Jerusalem provide the basis for ethnographic comparisons and for assessing the impact of profound historical and personal changes. From a representative systematic sample (from a geographically sorted electoral register) of 759 persons, 605 persons replied to our home-visit questionnaire gathering data on migration history, dwelling conditions, health status, health service utilization, employment status, activities of daily living, social support, use of drugs and war experience. Later on, 463 persons attended our geriatric research institute where we gathered information from in-depth anamnesis and physical examination, as well as cognitive and psychological tests. In addition, a battery of biochemical and hematological blood tests were performed as well as urine analysis and culture, ECG and pulmonary function tests. The heterogeneity of our cohort population is demonstrated by the finding that 84% were born in 40 different countries outside of Israel. In contrast, in the seventy-year old population studied in Gothenburg, Sweden, only 3% were not native born. In the years 1996, 2001 and 2006, our initial study cohort will be re-examined and compared to control groups representing states of no-survey intervention until ages 75, 80 and 85 years old. This background paper describes the study design, protocols and procedures. The responders were found to be representative of the 70 year old Jewish population in Jerusalem as a whole, in terms of mortality and hospital utilization rates. The results of the study to be reported in subsequent papers will allow conclusions regarding all 70 year old Jews in Jerusalem to be made.

The Jerusalem seventy year olds longitudinal study. II: Background results from the initial home interview

Basic background information is presented from a representative sample of 605 West Jerusalem Jewish residents aged 70 years in 1990/91. A followup survey of the original cohort is planned for 1996, in addition to a similar sized control group of persons not studied in 1990/91. This paper describes the demographic characteristics, marital status, household composition, migration patterns, language comprehension, education, employment status, religious practices, household conditions, health status, health service utilization, health practices, use of medications, social contacts and activities of daily living of the study population. Only 16% of the study population were born in Israel, the remainder were born in forty different countries in four continents. This article also presents some ethnic comparisons within our cohort. Some significant differences were found between ethnic sub-groups in self-reported chronic diseases. However, many of these differences disappeared when socio-economic covariates were considered. Differences were also found when specific countries were considered. Compared to Polish-born Jews, Moroccan-born Jews had lower economic status, less education, more family contacts and less faith in physicians. Moroccan-born Jews also reported more morbidity for cerebrovascular disorders, emphysema and glaucoma.

A cost-benefit analysis of legislation for bicycle safety helmets in Israel

Legislation requiring bicyclists to wear helmets in Israel will, over a helmet's 5-year duration (assuming 85% compliancy, 83.2% helmet efficiency for morbidity, and 70% helmet efficiency for mortality), save approximately 57 lives and result in approximately 2544 fewer hospitalizations; 13,355 and 26,634 fewer emergency room and ambulatory visits, respectively; and 832 and 115 fewer short-term and long-term rehabilitation cases, respectively. Total benefits ($60.7 million) from reductions in health service use ($44.2 million), work absences ($7.5 million), and mortality ($8.9 million) would exceed program costs ($20.1 million), resulting in a benefit-cost ratio of 3.01:1.

Growth and nutrition patterns of infants associated with a nutrition education and supplementation programme in Gaza, 1987-92

Since 1986, the 28 government community health centres providing primary care in Gaza have paid special attention to growth monitoring, nutrition education, and routine vitamin and iron supplementation in infancy. In 1987-88, 1989 and 1992, respectively, the nursing staff in five of these centres monitored the growth and feeding patterns of 2222, 1899, and 1012 children aged up to 15 months. The growth measures of children aged up to 6 months were similar to standard growth charts, but subsequently deficiencies developed in the study children. There were no differences between the patterns for males and females. Infants from upper socioeconomic categories had growth patterns that were closest to the norm, but this was associated with feeding and supplementation differences. There was improvement in the growth and feeding patterns of the 1989 and 1990-92 birth cohorts compared with the 1987-88 group and with the standard. Feeding patterns showed high levels of compliance with nutrition guidance. Growth monitoring, staff and maternal education, and supplementation with vitamins and, especially, iron were associated with marked improvements in feeding patterns and the growth status of children aged 3-15 months.

Cost benefit analysis of Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination programme in Israel

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The recent availability of Haemophilus influenzae type b (HIB) conjugate vaccines prompted an examination of the costs and benefits of four and three dose HIB prevention programmes targeting all newborns in Israel.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A four dose programme would reduce the number of childhood (aged 0-13) HIB cases from 184.2 to 31.3 per year, yielding a benefit ($1.03 million) to cost ($3.55 million) ratio of just 0.29/l for health services only, based on a vaccine price of $7.74 per dose. When benefits resulting from a reduction in mild handicaps and severe neurological sequelae are included, the benefit ($4.48 million) to cost ratio rises to 1.26/l and it reaches 1.45/l when the $0.66 million indirect benefits of reduced work absences and mortality are also included. Break even vaccine costs are $2.24 when health service benefits only are considered and $11.21 when all the benefits are included.

CONCLUSION

In the absence of other projects with higher benefit to cost ratios, Israel should start to provide a nationwide HIB vaccination programme since the monetary benefits to society of such a programme will exceed the costs to society. A barrier to implementation may occur, however, because the costs of the programme exceed the benefits to the health services alone.

Partial cost-benefit analysis of two different modes of nonpharmacological control of hypertension in the community

In the Dan and Ashkelon areas of Israel, 28 male and 24 female mild to moderate hypertensives without target organ damage aged 35-65 years were randomly assigned to treatment programmes (based on nutritional management, exercise and stress management techniques) either on an individual basis administered by physician-nurse teams (PN) or on a group basis from a team of paramedical professionals (PP) consisting of a psychologist, nutritionist and physical activity instructor. At 11 and 24 months follow-up, there were similar significant improvements in both treatment modes for such risk factors as body mass index, caloric intake and physical activity levels. There was a significant decrease in drug use from $36.28 a month at baseline to $18.94 a month at 11 month follow-up (P = 0.01) and to an estimated $20.48 at 24 months. Mean BP remained unchanged, despite the reduction in drug use, indicating a reduction in the underlying BP. The net present value (NPV) of the reduction in drug utilisation totalled $740 per person over a five year time horizon and a 7.5% discount rate. The total extra costs of treatment, training, case-note writing, travelling and follow-up booster sessions, amounted to $95 per patient for the PN mode and $234 per patient for the PP mode, yielding benefit to cost ratios of 7.79/1 and 3.16/l, respectively.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Measles control in developing and developed countries: the case for a two-dose policy

Despite major reductions in the incidence of measles and its complications, measles control with a single dose of the currently used. Schwarz strain vaccine has failed to eradicate the disease in the developed countries. In developing countries an enormous toll of measles deaths and disability continues, despite considerable efforts and increasing immunization coverage. Empirical evidence from a number of countries suggests that a two-dose measles vaccination programme, by improving individual protection and heard immunity can make a major contribution to measles control and elimination of local circulation of the disease. Cost-benefit analysis also supports the two-dose schedule in terms of savings in health costs, and total costs to society. A two-dose measles vaccination programme is therefore an essential component of preventive health care in developing, as well as developed countries for the 1990s.

Standardized mortality ratios for Israel, 1983-86

Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), standardized by age, sex, continent of birth, and religion are presented by cause and region for the period 1983-86. Regional SMRs ranged from 90.6 in Jerusalem to 107.6 in Ramla. These differences may be due to direct and indirect occupational, environmental and socioeconomic effects as well as to possible health service differences. SMRs can be used to indicate regions where further in-depth epidemiological investigations are called for in order to ascertain the reasons for elevated disease specific SMRs. In addition, SMRs could be used as a global measure of all effects in order to adjust any regional budgetary allocation formula, based on capitation.

Cost-benefit analysis of a nationwide neonatal inoculation programme against hepatitis B in an area of intermediate endemicity

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The aim was to estimate the costs and benefits of a nationwide neonatal vaccination campaign against hepatitis B in Israel for the 1990-2034 period.

DESIGN

Using morbidity, mortality, utilisation, and cost data from Israeli and international sources, a spreadsheet model was constructed to carry out the cost-benefit analysis.

SETTING

The entire State of Israel, an area of intermediate endemicity.

PARTICIPANTS

The population of Israel from 1990-2034.

MAIN RESULTS

A policy of immunising all Israeli neonates would, for a cost of $13.8 million, reduce the number of cases of hepatitis B during the 1990-2035 period in the cohort from 359,000 to 166,000 and save the nation around $21.5 million in health resources alone, $16.6 million in averted work absences, and a further $0.6 million in averted premature mortality costs. Even when the savings to the health services ($0.6 million) arising from the reduction in hepatocellular carcinoma are excluded, the direct benefit to cost ratio is 1.51/1, still in excess of unity.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision to adopt a nationwide neonatal inoculation policy, starting in January 1992, appears to be not only medically but also economically justifiable.

Mesothelioma mortality among former asbestos-cement workers in Israel, 1953-90

Asbestos workers have long been recognized as a high risk group for the development of mesothelioma and other cancers. In this study we collated from a variety of sources 26 mesothelioma deaths that occurred between 1978 and 1990 among a cohort of some 4,441 former workers from an asbestos-cement plant in northern Israel. Since the expected number of deaths for this number of Israeli males in this age-group over this period is 0.12 cases, the risk of this disease was more than 223 times the national rate, age and sex adjusted [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 22,351, P < 0.001]. The mean years of exposure of persons who died from mesothelioma was 16.2 (SE 2.5). The mean latency period for mesothelioma cases from onset of exposure to death was 25.6 years (SE 1.3). Additional follow-up systems are needed to ensure complete reporting of asbestos-related diseases, including epidemiologic follow-up of asbestos-exposed workers after cessation of their work, with regular analysis of death and cancer registry data for high risk groups. Asbestos-related cancer is an important element in cancer epidemiology that requires further development in Israel. Studies of former workers, their families and of persons who worked or attended school adjacent to the asbestos-cement factory, as well as follow-up of other former worker groups exposed to asbestos are recommended.

Regional differences in cancer incidence and mortality in Israel: possible leads to occupational causes

Occupational causes of cancer are difficult to establish because of the long latency period and difficulty in identifying occupational linkages. This study provides a regional analysis of cancer incidence and mortality as a method of identifying localizing factors in cancer that can be followed by more specific epidemiologic investigation. In this study we analyze the regional standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for site-specific cancers, by age, sex and continent of birth for the years 1983-86, for the Jewish population of Israel. Elevated total malignant and benign neoplasm SMRs were found in Acre (SMR 109, P < 0.05), Haifa (104, P < 0.05) and Tel Aviv (107, P < 0.001). The only other statistically significantly elevated SMRs were found in Acre for lung cancer (133, P < 0.05) and leukemia (171, P < 0.05). Age and sex-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) by regions are also presented for the years 1980-81 for the Jewish population. Haifa had elevated SIRs for colorectal cancer (126, P < 0.001), breast cancer (118, P < 0.01) and lymphomas (126, P < 0.05). Elevated lung cancer SIRs were found in both Acre (145, P < 0.05) and Ramla (143, P < 0.05). Male to female incidence ratios (MFIRs) for ages 30+ for the Israeli Jewish population are also presented. Elevated bladder cancer MFIRs were found in the heavily industrialized Haifa region (7.69 vs. 4.62 P < 0.05). For Ramla residents, bladder and oronasopharyngeal cancer MFIRs were approximately three times the national average (not statistically significant). Ramla also had elevated MFIRs for lung cancer (14.9 vs. 3.4 nationally, P < 0.01), as did Acre (7.6 vs. 3.4 nationally, P = 0.06). These elevated MFIRs are suggestive of occupational exposure from the cement and asbestos factories in the Ramla and Acre regions. Regional analyses of cancer mortality and cancer incidence (using SMRs, SIRs and MFIRs) can serve as a basic tool for identifying sentinel markers of excess rates. Our findings indicate regions where we should undertake case-referent studies in order to identify potential risk factors and where to target possible preventive programs.

Cost-benefit analysis of a nationwide inoculation programme against viral hepatitis B in an area of intermediate endemicity

The large decrease in the cost of vaccines against hepatitis virus B prompts a re-examination of nationwide vaccination campaign strategies. The present study estimates the costs and benefits that would result from a viral hepatitis B prevention programme (with no prior screening) targeted at all under-16-year-olds in Israel in 1990 and only neonates in the period 1991-2034. Israel is situated in an area of intermediate endemicity, where the majority of HBsAg carriers are anti-HBe positive. Such a policy would reduce the number of cases of viral hepatitis B in the vaccinated cohort from 654,000 to 270,000 over the period 1990-2059, yielding a benefit-to-cost ratio of 1.88: 1 for the health services only. Inclusion also of the indirect benefits of reduced work absences and mortality would increase the benefit-to-cost ratio to 2.77:1. Even when the benefits arising from the reduction in hepatocellular carcinoma and liver transplants were excluded, the benefit-to-cost ratio for the health services alone would still be 1.41:1. The adoption of such a nationwide inoculation policy appears therefore to be not only medically but also economically justifiable.

Costs and benefits of a second measles inoculation of children in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Measles has been targeted by the WHO as a disease which should be eradicated. Use of existing vaccines during infancy has resulted in a substantial decline in cases in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. However the disease continues to occur in epidemic waves with large scale morbidity and mortality in all of these populations. This paper estimates the costs and benefits of three alternative strategies of adding immunisation at school age, and during young adult life to the present vaccination at 15 months.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A policy of immunising all Israeli children aged 6 (option A) would cost around $1 million and have estimated benefits of $4.5 million, yielding a benefit cost ratio of 4.53/1. Despite relatively lower medical care costs and work absence costs (as a result of the lower per capita GNP and lower female participation rate in the workforce), the West Bank and Gaza situations yield benefit to cost ratios of 5.74/1 and 9.59/1 respectively because of their relatively higher incidence rates. If implemented in Israel, a vaccination programme (such as option A) would prevent, over the next 10 years, approximately 28,700 simple cases, 3400 hospital admissions, eight non-fatal cases of encephalitis, and 2.2 cases of SSPE. It would save 28 lives. The adoption of option A, is expected to reduce incidence and mortality by around 13,600 and 32 cases in the West Bank, and by 18,000 and 64 cases in Gaza.

CONCLUSION

The adoption of a two dose policy appears to be economically justifiable.

Resource savings from non-pharmacological control of hypertension

Treatment of acute cardiovascular illness is expensive, and a preventative approach may be cheaper. Since pharmacological costs account for a large proportion of costs in prevention programmes, a non-pharmacological approach such as that used by us in Ashkelon on mild hypertensives, relying on stress management, weight management and exercise aimed at reducing risk factors, might prove to be more cost-effective. After six months on a 1,000 calorie/day diet, 69 obese subjects (initial body mass index greater than 28 kg/m2) had reduced their weight by an average of 7.3 kg (P less than 0.005). This weight reduction contributed to a significant decrease in systolic blood pressure (SBP) from 157.3 to 137.6 mmHg (P less than 0.005) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) from 101.1 to 85.2 mmHg (P less than 0.005), which was sustained at two-year follow-up. Pharmacological treatment could be stopped in about one-quarter of these cases. In non-obese mild-hypertensives, deep muscle relaxation and biofeedback techniques were prescribed. Significant decreases in SBP (153.1 to 138.3 mmHg, P less than 0.005) and DBP (101.2 to 90.1 mmHg, P less than 0.005) were achieved at six months. In nine out of 19 cases pharmacological treatment was stopped after six to eight months. Smoking cessation was achieved by individual instruction together with stress management techniques, physical exercise and a nicotine-based chewing gum. After six months 18 out of 30 heavy smokers had stopped smoking, and the remaining 12 had reduced their cigarette consumption.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Cost-benefit analysis of routine mumps and rubella vaccination for Israeli infants

Until January 1989, mumps vaccine was not routinely administered in Israel, and rubella immunization was restricted to adolescent girls. The theoretical effect of combined mumps-rubella vaccination was applied to a population consisting of a cohort of 1-year-old children followed for 13 years. Assuming 90% compliance and 95% vaccine efficacy, projected clinical cases of mumps, rubella, encephalitis and thrombocytopenia would be reduced by 4,144; 3,109; 13; and 1 respectively. We anticipate a benefit to cost ratio of between 1.17 and 1.77 for the program. Since only 10-20% of cases are reported, the true benefit to cost ratio is likely to be at least 5.85. The benefit to cost ratio based on health service benefits alone is between 0.34 and 0.52; however, after adjusting for under-reporting, benefits are expected to exceed costs. Expenditures for laboratory testing, a factor not previously considered in such an analysis, would be reduced by approximately $2,750 per year. These results justify the initiation in January 1989 of nationwide routine vaccination.

Balance of care in services to the elderly in Israel

In 1981, of the $262 million spent in Israel on services for its elderly population, only 14.3% was spent on care in the community--compared with 85.7% on institutional care. This paper searches for a method to determine the appropriate balance between community care and institutional care for the elderly. Two methods are explored: one based upon international comparisons, and the other a normative method. The method that uses international comparisons, which serves primarily to provide rough directional guidelines for changes, suggests the existence of a relative underprovision of community services in Israel. In order to get information as to the exact amount and type of services that are needed for the elderly, a normative approach is recommended. This calls for the following steps: 1) definition by experts of what packages of care are relevant for the various dysfunctional risk groups; 2) measurement of dysfunction among the elderly, both in institutions and in the community; 3) delineation of feasible packages of care for the dysfunctional subgroups; 4) costing of the various care packages (including a differential costing for institutional care that takes into account dysfunctional levels) to identify the most cost-effective option; and 5) aggregation of the most cost-effective options in order to estimate the ideal amount of provision of each type of service.