Using dispersion models at microscale to assess long-term air pollution in urban hot spots: A FAIRMODE joint intercomparison exercise for a case study in Antwerp

In the framework of the Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe (FAIRMODE), a modelling intercomparison exercise for computing NO2 long-term average concentrations in urban districts with a very high spatial resolution was carried out. This exercise was undertaken for a district of Antwerp (Belgium). Air quality data includes data recorded in air quality monitoring stations and 73 passive samplers deployed during one-month period in 2016. The modelling domain was 800 × 800 m2. Nine modelling teams participated in this exercise providing results from fifteen different modelling applications based on different kinds of model approaches (CFD - Computational Fluid Dynamics-, Lagrangian, Gaussian, and Artificial Intelligence). Some approaches consisted of models running the complete one-month period on an hourly basis, but most others used a scenario approach, which relies on simulations of scenarios representative of wind conditions combined with post-processing to retrieve a one-month average of NO2 concentrations. The objective of this study is to evaluate what type of modelling system is better suited to get a good estimate of long-term averages in complex urban districts. This is very important for air quality assessment under the European ambient air quality directives. The time evolution of NO2 hourly concentrations during a day of relative high pollution was rather well estimated by all models. Relative to high resolution spatial distribution of one-month NO2 averaged concentrations, Gaussian models were not able to give detailed information, unless they include building data and street-canyon parameterizations. The models that account for complex urban geometries (i.e. CFD, Lagrangian, and AI models) appear to provide better estimates of the spatial distribution of one-month NO2 averages concentrations in the urban canopy. Approaches based on steady CFD-RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) model simulations of meteorological scenarios seem to provide good results with similar quality to those obtained with an unsteady one-month period CFD-RANS simulations.

[Short-term effects of PM10 on cause-specific mortality and the role of long-term environmental pressures in the industrial areas of Brindisi and Civitavecchia]

OBJECTIVES

the health status of people living near industrial plants is often exposed to several environmental risk factors, including air pollution. The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between daily PM10 levels and cause-specific mortality in a selection of municipalities near two industrial plants from 2006 to 2015.

DESIGN

a time-series design with Poisson regression adjusted for a predefined set of confounders was used to quantify the association between exposure, calculated as daily PM10 levels extrapolated from machine-learning models using satellite data, and cause-specific mortality.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

twenty municipalities near the thermal power plants in Civitavecchia and Brindisi were selected. The municipalities were then divided into three scenarios of chronic exposure derived from SPRAY simulation models of pollutant deposition.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

daily cause-specific non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths defined according to the International Classification of Diseases code at the municipality level.

RESULTS

a total of 41,942 deaths were observed in the entire area (10,503 in the Civitavecchia area and 31,439 in the Brindisi area), of which approximately 41% were due to cardiovascular causes and 8% due to respiratory causes. The association showed an increase in shortterm effects in municipalities with higher chronic levels of pollution exposure. For example, risk estimates reported as percentage increases per 10-unit increase in PM10 were 6.7% (95% CI 0.9, 12.7%) in scenario 3 (highest exposure) compared to 4.2% (-1.2, 9.9%) and 2.7% (-4.2, 10.2%) in scenarios 2 and 1, respectively, in the area near the Civitavecchia plant. Similar effects were observed for the Brindisi area.

CONCLUSIONS

despite the well-documented relationship between short-term pollution and mortality, it appears that greater chronic exposure to industrial pollutants leads to increased short-term effects of PM10. The limited number of events suggests that this study could serve as a starting point for a larger investigation.

A nationwide study of air pollution from particulate matter and daily hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in Italy

BACKGROUND/AIM

The relationship between air pollution and respiratory morbidity has been widely addressed in urban and metropolitan areas but little is known about the effects in non-urban settings. Our aim was to assess the short-term effects of PM10 and PM2.5 on respiratory admissions in the whole country of Italy during 2006-2015.

METHODS

We estimated daily PM concentrations at the municipality level using satellite data and spatiotemporal predictors. We collected daily counts of respiratory hospital admissions for each Italian municipality. We considered five different outcomes: all respiratory diseases, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower and upper respiratory tract infections (LRTI and URTI). Meta-analysis of province-specific estimates obtained by time-series models, adjusting for temperature, humidity and other confounders, was applied to extrapolate national estimates for each outcome. At last, we tested for effect modification by sex, age, period, and urbanization score. Analyses for PM_2.5 were restricted to 2013-2015 cause the goodness of fit of exposure estimation.

RESULTS

A total of 4,154,887 respiratory admission were registered during 2006-2015, of which 29% for LRTI, 12% for COPD, 6% for URTI, and 3% for asthma. Daily mean PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations over the study period were 23.3 and 17 μg/m³, respectively. For each 10 μg/m³ increases in PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 at lag 0-5 days, we found excess risks of total respiratory diseases equal to 1.20% (95% confidence intervals, 0.92, 1.49) and 1.22% (0.76, 1.68), respectively. The effects for the specific diseases were similar, with the strongest ones for asthma and COPD. Higher effects were found in the elderly and in less urbanized areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term exposure to PM is harmful for the respiratory system throughout an entire country, especially in elderly patients. Strong effects can be found also in less urbanized areas.

Simulating Pollutant Dispersion from Accidental Fires with a Focus on Source Characterization

BACKGROUND

Storage tanks in oil and gas processing facilities contain large volumes of flammable compounds. Once the fuel-air mixture is ignited, it may break out into a large fire or explosion. The growing interest in monitoring air quality and assessing health risks makes the evaluation of the consequences of a fire an important issue. Atmospheric dispersion models, which allow for simulation of the spatial distribution of pollutants, represent an increasingly widespread tool for this type of evaluations.

OBJECTIVES

The present study discusses the set up and results of a modeling study relevant to a hypothesized fire in an oil refinery.

METHODS

After choosing the most suitable dispersion models, i.e. the Lagrangian model SPRAY and the puff model CALPUFF, estimation of the required input data is discussed, focusing on the source variables, which represent the most uncertain input data. The results of the simulations were compared to regulatory limits to effectively evaluate the environmental consequences. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was employed to identify the most influential variables.

RESULTS

The simulation results revealed that ground concentration values were far below the cited long-term limits. However, the most interesting outcome is that depending on the dispersion model and the source type modeled, different results may be obtained. In addition, the sensitivity study indicates that the source area is the most critical variable, since it determines a significantly different behavior depending on the modeled source types, producing, in some cases, variability in the pollutant ground concentrations on selected receptors up to +/- 60%.

CONCLUSIONS

Depending on the selected model and the algorithms available to describe the physics of emission, the results showed a different sensitivity to the input variables. Although this can be explained from a mathematical point of view, the problem remains of choosing case by case the option that best approximates the real behavior of the incidental source under investigation.

COMPETING INTERESTS

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Impact of different exposure models and spatial resolution on the long-term effects of air pollution

Long-term exposure to air pollution has been related to mortality in several epidemiological studies. The investigations have assessed exposure using various methods achieving different accuracy in predicting air pollutants concentrations. The comparison of the health effects estimates are therefore challenging. This paper aims to compare the effect estimates of the long-term effects of air pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm, PM₁₀, and nitrogen dioxide, NO₂) on cause-specific mortality in the Rome Longitudinal Study, using exposure estimates obtained with different models and spatial resolutions. Annual averages of NO₂ and PM₁₀ were estimated for the year 2015 in a large portion of the Rome urban area (12 × 12 km²) applying three modelling techniques available at increasing spatial resolution: 1) a chemical transport model (CTM) at 1km resolution; 2) a land-use random forest (LURF) approach at 200m resolution; 3) a micro-scale Lagrangian particle dispersion model (PMSS) taking into account the effect of buildings structure at 4 m resolution with results post processed at different buffer sizes (12, 24, 52, 100 and 200 m). All the exposures were assigned at the residential addresses of 482,259 citizens of Rome 30+ years of age who were enrolled on 2001 and followed-up till 2015. The association between annual exposures and natural-cause, cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory (RESP) mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for individual and area-level confounders. We found different distributions of both NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations, across models and spatial resolutions. Natural cause and CVD mortality outcomes were all positively associated with NO₂ and PM₁₀ regardless of the model and spatial resolution when using a relative scale of the exposure such as the interquartile range (IQR): adjusted Hazard Ratios (HR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI), of natural cause mortality, per IQR increments in the two pollutants, ranged between 1.012 (1.004, 1.021) and 1.018 (1.007, 1.028) for the different NO₂ estimates, and between 1.010 (1.000, 1.020) and 1.020 (1.008, 1.031) for PM₁₀, with a tendency of larger effect for lower resolution exposures. The latter was even stronger when a fixed value of 10 μg/m³ is used to calculate HRs. Long-term effects of air pollution on mortality in Rome were consistent across different models for exposure assessment, and different spatial resolutions.

Composition and emission of VOC from biogas produced by illegally managed waste landfills in Giugliano (Campania, Italy) and potential impact on the local population

The composition in Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) of the biogas produced by seven landfills of Giugliano (Naples, Campania, Italy) was determined and VOC emission rates assessed to verify if these compounds represent a potential threat to the population living nearby. VOC composition in the biogas could not be predicted, as heterogeneous waste was dumped from the late 1980s to the early 2000s and then underwent biological degradation. No data are available on the amount and composition of VOC in the biogas before the landfills closure as no operational biogas collection system was present. In this study, VOC composition was determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), after collecting samples from collection pipes and from soil fractures in cover soil or capping. Individual VOC were quantified and data compared with those collected at two landfills in Latium, when they were still in operation. Relevant differences were observed, mainly due to waste aging, but no specific VOC revealing toxic waste dumping was found, although the concurrent presence of certain compounds suggested that dumping of industrial wastes might have occurred. The average VOC emission was assessed and a dispersion model was run to find out if the emitted plume could affect the health of population. The results suggested that fugitive emissions did not represent a serious danger, since the concentrations simulated at the neighboring cities were below the threshold limits for acute and chronic diseases. However, VOC plume could cause annoyance at night when the steady state conditions of the atmosphere enhance pollutants accumulation in the lower layers. In addition, some of the emitted VOC, such as alkylbenzenes and monoterpenes, can contribute to tropospheric ozone formation.

Microscale modelling simulations for the site characterization of air quality stations in an urban environment

The presence of natural or artificial barriers placed near the air quality measuring stations located in an urban environment poses some problems in the assessment of their siting and significance. The atmospheric flow distortion induced by these structures can create situations that affect the concentration levels of measured pollutants. A modelling study at microscale of the pollutant dispersion in an urban environment has been performed to quantify these possible effects on measurements. The target domain is located in a central section of the city of Turin (northern Italy) around via della Consolata, near the location of an existing station of the regional monitoring network. The study involved the use of the modelling system Micro-Swift-Spray, which takes into account the presence of complex topographical barriers, including street canyons and squares surrounded by buildings. Two entire days have been simulated, to characterise both a critical and a more standard condition, with reconstruction of average flow, turbulence and hourly ground-level pollutant concentrations. Contributions from both traffic and building-heating sources have been considered and a comparison with measured concentrations has been performed to verify the representativeness of the measuring station with respect to both average conditions and spatial variability inside the considered region, otherwise very difficult to asses through a single and isolated measuring point.

Integrated assessment of traffic impact in an Alpine region

This paper reports the results of an integrated assessment of traffic impact on a tourist-popular high altitude region which includes mountain passes and road tunnels. A modeling system for air quality assessment and management has been established and revised. The system has been used to evaluate the impact of traffic due to the re-opening of the Mont Blanc tunnel: the increase in NO(x) concentrations ranges from 50% at the bottom of the upper valley to 150% near to tunnel entrance.

[Acquired systemic amyloidosis associated with monoclonal gammopathy]

A case of acquired systemic amyloidosis with monoclonal gammopathy in a woman aged 67 years is reported. Clinical features included macroglossia, restrictive cardiomyopathy, cutaneous purpura and carpal-tunnel syndrome. A short review on amyloidosis appears in the case discussion.