Age-Specific Predictive Models of the Upper Quintile of Periodontal Attachment Loss

A practical method to identify people who are most affected by periodontitis in their age group is currently unavailable. We focused on individuals with mean clinical attachment loss (CAL) above the 80th percentile within each of 10 age groups (5-y intervals between 30 and 74 y as well as ≥75 y). We developed predictive models using combined data from 2 cohorts (2009 to 2010 and 2011 to 2012) from the NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; development cohort [DC], n = 6,757), and we carried out external validation using data from a third NHANES cohort (2013 to 2014; validation cohort [VC], n = 3,447). We used 1) age-specific logistic regression models with stepwise selection to identify significant demographic variables, habits, medical conditions, and selected clinical periodontal parameters (proportion of teeth with probing depth ≥4 mm at incisors and molars and with visible [≥2 mm] recession) and to calculate propensity scores (PSs); 2) Youden's J statistic to select optimum PS cutoffs to maximize diagnostic performance using receiver operating characteristic curves; and 3) bootstrap resampling with 1,000 replicates to validate the age-specific models and adjust the PS and optimal PS cutoffs for overfitting. The bootstrap-adjusted PSs were used as single predictors of mean CAL over the 80th percentile in the VC. The age-specific upper quintiles of mean CAL ranged between 1.63 and 3.24 mm in the DC and between 1.87 and 3.20 mm in the VC. The area under the curve of the models exceeded 0.85 in all age groups in the DC and 0.84 in the VC, indicating well-validated diagnostic performance. In the DC, sensitivity values ranged between 0.75 and 0.97 and exceeded 0.83 in 8 of 10 age groups. Corresponding values in the VC ranged between 0.56 and 0.89 and exceeded 0.68 in 8 of 10 age groups. We conclude that modeling that incorporates readily obtainable variables through a brief patient interview and an abbreviated periodontal examination accurately identifies individuals who are most affected by periodontitis in different ages.

Neonatal mortality and topical application of chlorhexidine on umbilical cord stump: a meta-analysis of randomized control trials

OBJECTIVE

To examine the efficacy of topical chlorhexidine as an intervention on neonatal umbilical cord stumps and its association with neonatal mortality and omphalitis.

STUDY DESIGN

Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

METHOD

PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, IMSEAR, Google Scholar, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register and Clinicaltrials.gov were screened until September 1, 2015 to identify RCTs that met the inclusion criteria. Pooled relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated.

RESULTS

Five RCTs, conducted in Italy, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and India with a total of 55,008 participants were identified. Analysis revealed a significant reduction in the incidence of neonatal mortality among the intervention group as compared to the control group (pooled RR = 0.8; 95% CI: 0.6-1.0; P = 0.04; random effects model, I² = 58%; χ² = 9.5; P = 0.05). Additionally, decreased incidence in omphalitis was seen in the intervention group as compared to the control group (pooled RR = 0.4; 95% CI: 0.3-0.7; P < 0.001; random effects model, I² = 50%; χ² = 8.0; P = 0.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Application of chlorhexidine to newborn umbilical cord stumps, significantly reduce the incidences of both neonatal mortality and omphalitis. However, high-quality trials from different regions and obstetric settings may help form more conclusive judgement on universal application of topical chlorhexidine.