The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications

BACKGROUND

The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications.

METHODS

ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery.

RESULTS

The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784.

CONCLUSIONS

This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03044899.

Congenital syphilis in a Nairobi maternity hospital

OBJECTIVE

To assess adverse pregnancy outcome associated with maternal syphilis and congenital syphilis rate based on FTA-ABS-19s-IgM.

DESIGN

Descriptive cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Pumwani Maternity Hospital (PMH), the largest maternity unit in Nairobi, Kenya.

SUBJECTS

Rapid Plasma Reagin reactive women and their live born infants.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Syphilis serology in pregnant women, FTA-ABS-19s-IgM in cord blood and pregnancy outcome.

RESULTS

Three hundred and seventy seven out of 12,414 women (3%) were RPR+. 4.0% of RPR+ and 1.4% of RPR- women delivered a stillbirth (OR 3.0, p<0.001). 19% of RPR+ and 10% of RPR- had low birth weight deliveries (OR 2.1, p<0.001). Mothers untreated for syphilis during pregnancy had significantly more preterm births (18.5% vs 9.2%, OR 2.3, p=0.026), and more stillbirths (5.4% vs 1.0%, OR 6.3, p=0.044). Of the 200 randomly selected cord bloods of RPR+ women, 142 (72%) were TPHA+. Nine (6.3%) of the 142 TPHA+ cords were FTA-ABS-19s-IgM+.

CONCLUSIONS

Stillbirth and low birth weight rates were high in RPR+ untreated pregnant women and treatment significantly improved pregnancy outcome. Based on very stringent laboratory criteria (FTA-ABS-19s-IgM), 6.3% of live born infants with TPHA+ cord blood were considered syphilis infected.

Effect of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection upon acute salpingitis: a laparoscopic study

To determine the effect of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection upon pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), a laparoscopic study of acute PID was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya. Subjects underwent diagnostic laparoscopy, HIV-1 serology, and testing for sexually transmitted diseases. Of the 133 women with laparoscopically verified salpingitis, 52 (39%) were HIV-1-seropositive. Tubo-ovarian abscesses (TOA) were found in 33% of HIV-1-infected and 15% of HIV-1-uninfected women (odds ratio [OR], 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-6.5). Among seropositive women, TOA was found in 55% of those with CD4 cell percent <14% vs. 28% with CD4 cell percent>14% (OR 3.1, 95% CI 0.6-15.3). Neisseria gonorrhoeae was detected in 37 women (28%) and Chlamydia trachomatis in 12 (9%); neither was significantly related to HIV-1 seropositivity. Length of hospitalization was not affected by HIV-1 serostatus overall but was prolonged among HIV-1-infected women with CD4 cell percent <14%. Among patients with acute salpingitis, likelihood of TOA was related to HIV-1 infection and advanced immunosuppression. In general, HIV-1-seropositive women with acute salpingitis responded well to treatment.

Barriers to contraceptive use in Kenya

This study was designed to identify and to better understand the barriers to contraceptive use among Kenyan-couples. Data were collected through structured interviews and focus group discussions among couples not planning for pregnancy and not using any effective contraceptive method. The study was conducted in the Baba Dogo urban slum area of Nairobi, and Chwele, a rural sub-location in Bungoma, western Kenya. Some important barriers to contraceptive use were identified in couples wishing to space or limit further births. Those barriers included lack of agreement on contraceptive use and on reproductive intentions; husband's attitude on his role as a decision maker; perceived undesirable side effects, distribution and infant mortality; negative traditional practices and desires such as naming relatives, and preference for sons as security in old age. There were also gaps in knowledge on contraceptive methods, fears, rumours and misconceptions about specific methods and unavailability or poor quality of services in the areas studied. This paper recommends that information and educational programmes should be instituted to increase contraceptive knowledge, to emphasise the value of quality of life over traditional reproductive practices and desires, and to improve availability and quality of services.