Evidence-based target setting informs blue carbon strategies for nationally determined contributions

The magnitude and pace of global climate change demand ambitious and effective implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Nature-based solutions present an efficient approach to achieving mitigation, adaptation and resilience goals. Yet few nations have quantified the diverse benefits of nature-based solutions to evaluate and select ecosystem targets for their NDCs. Here we report on Belize's pursuit of innovative, evidence-based target setting by accounting for multiple benefits of blue carbon strategies. Through quantification of carbon storage and sequestration and optimization of co-benefits, we explore time-bound targets and prioritize locations for mangrove protection and restoration. We find increases in carbon benefits with larger mangrove investments, while fisheries, tourism and coastal risk-reduction co-benefits grow initially and then plateau. We identify locations, currently lacking protected status, where prioritizing blue carbon strategies would provide the greatest delivery of co-benefits to communities. These findings informed Belize's updated NDCs to include an additional 12,000 ha of mangrove protection and 4,000 ha of mangrove restoration, respectively, by 2030. Our study serves as an example for the more than 150 other countries that have the opportunity to enhance greenhouse gas sequestration and climate adaptation by incorporating blue carbon strategies that provide multiple societal benefits into their NDCs.

Prioritizing forest management actions to benefit marine habitats in data-poor regions

Land-use change is considered one of the greatest human threats to marine ecosystems globally. Given limited resources for conservation, we adapted and scaled up a spatially explicit, linked land-sea decision support tool using open access global geospatial data sets and software to inform the prioritization of future forest management interventions that can have the greatest benefit on marine conservation in Vanuatu. We leveraged and compared outputs from two global marine habitat maps to prioritize land areas for forest conservation and restoration that can maximize sediment retention, water quality, and healthy coastal/marine ecosystems. By combining the outputs obtained from both marine habitat maps, we incorporated elements unique to each and provided higher confidence in our prioritization results. Regardless of marine habitat data source, prioritized areas were mostly located in watersheds on the windward side of the large high islands, exposed to higher tropical rainfall, upstream from large sections of coral reef and seagrass habitats, and thus vulnerable to human-driven land use change. Forest protection and restoration in these areas will serve to maintain clean water and healthy, productive habitats through sediment retention, supporting the wellbeing of neighboring communities. The nationwide application of this linked land-sea tool can help managers prioritize watershed-based management actions based on quantitative synergies and trade-offs across terrestrial and marine ecosystems in data-poor regions. The framework developed here will guide the implementation of ridge-to-reef management across the Pacific region and beyond.

Identifying wastewater management tradeoffs: Costs, nearshore water quality, and implications for marine coastal ecosystems in Kona, Hawai'i

Untreated and minimally treated wastewater discharged into the environment have the potential to adversely affect groundwater dependent ecosystems and nearshore marine health. Addressing this issue requires a systems approach that links land use and wastewater management decisions to potential impacts on the nearshore marine environment via changes in water quality and quantity. To that end, a framework was developed to assess decisions that have cascading effects across multiple elements of the ridge-to-reef system. In an application to Kona (Hawai'i, USA), eight land use and wastewater management scenarios were evaluated in terms of wastewater system upgrade costs and wastewater related nutrient loads in groundwater, which eventually discharge to nearshore waters, resulting in potential impacts to marine habitat quality. Without any upgrades of cesspools or the existing wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), discharges of nutrients are expected to increase substantially with permitted development, with potential detrimental impacts to the marine environment. Results suggest that converting all of the existing cesspools to aerobic treatment units (ATU) and upgrading the existing WWTP to R-1 quality provide the highest protection to nearshore marine habitat at a cost of $569 million in present value terms. Other wastewater management options were less effective but also less costly. For example, targeted cesspool conversion (a combination of septic and ATU installation) in conjunction with the WWTP upgrade still provided a substantial reduction in nutrients and potential impacts to marine habitat quality relative to the present situation at a price point roughly $100 million less than the entirely ATU option. Of note, results were more sensitive to the inclusion of the WWTP upgrade option than they were to assumptions regarding the efficiency of the cesspool conversion technologies. The model outputs also suggest that the spatial distribution of potential impacts should be carefully considered when comparing different wastewater management scenarios. When evaluated separately, the WWTP option reduced total nutrients by more than the targeted cesspool conversion option at a fraction of the cost. However, potential improvements in marine habitat quality only occurred in the immediate vicinity of the WWTP, whereas the benefits under targeted cesspool conversion were more evenly distributed along the coast.

Incorporating reef fish avoidance behavior improves accuracy of species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to interpret and map fish distributions based on habitat variables and other drivers. Reef fish avoidance behavior has been shown to vary in the presence of divers and is primarily driven by spearfishing pressure. Diver avoidance behavior or fish wariness may spatially influence counts and other descriptive measures of fish assemblages. Because fish assemblage metrics are response variables for SDMs, measures of fish wariness may be useful as predictors in SDMs of fishes targeted by spearfishing. We used a diver operated stereo-video system to conduct fish surveys and record minimum approach distance (MAD) of targeted reef fishes inside and outside of two marine reserves on the island of Oʻahu in the main Hawaiian Islands. By comparing MAD between sites and management types we tested the assumption that it provides a proxy for fish wariness related to spearfishing pressure. We then compared the accuracy of SDMs which included MAD as a predictor with SDMs that did not. Individual measures of MAD differed between sites though not management types. When included as a predictor, MAD averaged at the transect level greatly improved the accuracy of SDMs of targeted fish biomass.

Seasonal distribution and foraging occurrence of Cook Inlet beluga whales based on passive acoustic monitoring

A paucity of information on the basic biology and ecology of Cook Inlet beluga whales Delphinapterus leucas remains a decade after the species was listed as endangered in 2008. The causes of its continued decline remain unclear. This lack of knowledge limits our understanding of, and ability to manage, potential threats impeding the recovery of this endangered population. Seasonal distribution and foraging ecology, particularly during winter, are currently among the most basic gaps in knowledge. Therefore, we conducted a year-round passive acoustic monitoring program from 2008-2013, monitoring 13 locations within the belugas’ critical habitat. We identified seasonal occurrence patterns across years at most locations. Detections were higher in the upper inlet during summer, peaking in known concentration areas. The occurrence of whales in the upper inlet when ice coverage peaked during winter was more prevalent than previously suggested. We documented seasonal differences in foraging habitat preference, with foraging behavior more prevalent during summer, particularly near upper inlet rivers, than during winter. Foraging peaks coincided with the presence of different anadromous fish runs from spring to fall. Low levels of feeding activity in winter suggest a lack of feeding aggregation areas, feeding in non-monitored offshore waters, or increased effort on benthic prey. These results represent a substantial contribution to our knowledge of Cook Inlet beluga seasonal distribution and foraging ecology, which will strengthen conservation and management strategies and thus more effectively promote recovery of this endangered population.

Publisher Correction: Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.

Place-based management can reduce human impacts on coral reefs in a changing climate

Declining natural resources have contributed to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. We applied a linked land-sea modeling framework based on remote sensing and empirical data, which couples groundwater nutrient export and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution. This spatially explicit (60 × 60 m) framework simultaneously tracks changes in multiple benthic and fish indicators as a function of community-led marine closures, land-use and climate change scenarios. We applied this framework in Hā'ena and Ka'ūpūlehu, located at opposite ends of the Hawaiian Archipelago to investigate the effects of coastal development and marine closures on coral reefs in the face of climate change. Our results indicated that projected coastal development and bleaching can result in a significant decrease in benthic habitat quality and community-led marine closures can result in a significant increase in fish biomass. In general, Ka'ūpūlehu is more vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching than Hā'ena due to high coral cover and limited dilution and mixing from low rainfall and wave power, except for the shallow and wave-sheltered back-reef areas of Hā'ena, which support high coral cover and act as nursery habitat for fishes. By coupling spatially explicit land-sea models with scenario planning, we identified priority areas on land where upgrading cesspools can reduce human impacts on coral reefs in the face of projected climate change impacts.

Managing Local Stressors for Coral Reef Condition and Ecosystem Services Delivery Under Climate Scenarios

Coral reefs provide numerous ecosystem goods and services, but are threatened by multiple environmental and anthropogenic stressors. To identify management scenarios that will reverse or mitigate ecosystem degradation, managers can benefit from tools that can quantify projected changes in ecosystem services due to alternative management options. We used a spatially-explicit biophysical ecosystem model to evaluate socio-ecological trade-offs of land-based vs. marine-based management scenarios, and local-scale vs. global-scale stressors and their cumulative impacts. To increase the relevance of understanding ecological change for the public and decision-makers, we used four ecological production functions to translate the model outputs into the ecosystem services: "State of the Reef," "Trophic Integrity," "Fisheries Production," and "Fisheries Landings." For a case study of Maui Nui, Hawai'i, land-based management attenuated coral cover decline whereas fisheries management promoted higher total fish biomass. Placement of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) across 30% of coral reef areas led to a reversal of the historical decline in predatory fish biomass, although this outcome depended on the spatial arrangement of MPAs. Coral cover declined less severely under strict sediment mitigation scenarios. However, the benefits of these local management scenarios were largely lost when accounting for climate-related impacts. Climate-related stressors indirectly increased herbivore biomass due to the shift from corals to algae and, hence, greater food availability. The two ecosystem services related to fish biomass increased under climate-related stressors but "Trophic Integrity" of the reef declined, indicating a less resilient reef. "State of the Reef" improved most and "Trophic Integrity" declined least under an optimistic global warming scenario and strict local management. This work provides insight into the relative influence of land-based vs. marine-based management and local vs. global stressors as drivers of changes in ecosystem dynamics while quantifying the tradeoffs between conservation- and extraction-oriented ecosystem services.

Scenario planning with linked land-sea models inform where forest conservation actions will promote coral reef resilience

We developed a linked land-sea modeling framework based on remote sensing and empirical data, which couples sediment export and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution. This spatially-explicit (60 × 60 m) framework simultaneously tracks changes in multiple benthic and fish indicators as a function of land-use and climate change scenarios. We applied this framework in Kubulau District, Fiji, to investigate the effects of logging, agriculture expansion, and restoration on coral reef resilience. Under the deforestation scenario, models projected a 4.5-fold sediment increase (>7,000 t. yr-1) coupled with a significant decrease in benthic habitat quality across 1,940 ha and a reef fish biomass loss of 60.6 t. Under the restoration scenario, models projected a small (<30 t. yr-1) decrease in exported sediments, resulting in a significant increase in benthic habitat quality across 577 ha and a fish biomass gain of 5.7 t. The decrease in benthic habitat quality and loss of fish biomass were greater when combining climate change and deforestation scenarios. We evaluated where land-use change and bleaching scenarios would impact sediment runoff and downstream coral reefs to identify priority areas on land, where conservation or restoration could promote coral reef resilience in the face of climate change.

Seascape models reveal places to focus coastal fisheries management

To design effective marine reserves and support fisheries, more information on fishing patterns and impacts for targeted species is needed, as well as better understanding of their key habitats. However, fishing impacts vary geographically and are difficult to disentangle from other factors that influence targeted fish distributions. We developed a set of fishing effort and habitat layers at high resolution and employed machine learning techniques to create regional-scale seascape models and predictive maps of biomass and body length of targeted reef fishes for the main Hawaiian Islands. Spatial patterns of fishing effort were shown to be highly variable and seascape models indicated a low threshold beyond which targeted fish assemblages were severely impacted. Topographic complexity, exposure, depth, and wave power were identified as key habitat variables that influenced targeted fish distributions and defined productive habitats for reef fisheries. High targeted reef fish biomass and body length were found in areas not easily accessed by humans, while model predictions when fishing effort was set to zero showed these high values to be more widely dispersed among suitable habitats. By comparing current targeted fish distributions with those predicted when fishing effort was removed, areas with high recovery potential on each island were revealed, with average biomass recovery of 517% and mean body length increases of 59% on Oahu, the most heavily fished island. Spatial protection of these areas would aid recovery of nearshore coral reef fisheries.

A linked land-sea modeling framework to inform ridge-to-reef management in high oceanic islands

Declining natural resources have led to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. Effective ridge-to-reef management requires improved understanding of land-sea linkages and decision-support tools to simultaneously evaluate the effects of terrestrial and marine drivers on coral reefs, mediated by anthropogenic activities. Although a few applications have linked the effects of land cover to coral reefs, these are too coarse in resolution to inform watershed-scale management for Pacific Islands. To address this gap, we developed a novel linked land-sea modeling framework based on local data, which coupled groundwater and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution, to determine the effects of terrestrial drivers (groundwater and nutrients), mediated by human activities (land cover/use), and marine drivers (waves, geography, and habitat) on coral reefs. We applied this framework in two 'ridge-to-reef' systems (Hā'ena and Ka'ūpūlehu) subject to different natural disturbance regimes, located in the Hawaiian Archipelago. Our results indicated that coral reefs in Ka'ūpūlehu are coral-dominated with many grazers and scrapers due to low rainfall and wave power. While coral reefs in Hā'ena are dominated by crustose coralline algae with many grazers and less scrapers due to high rainfall and wave power. In general, Ka'ūpūlehu is more vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching than Hā'ena due to high coral cover and limited dilution and mixing from low rainfall and wave power. However, the shallow and wave sheltered back-reef areas of Hā'ena, which support high coral cover and act as nursery habitat for fishes, are also vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching. Anthropogenic sources of nutrients located upstream from these vulnerable areas are relevant locations for nutrient mitigation, such as cesspool upgrades. In this study, we located coral reefs vulnerable to land-based nutrients and linked them to priority areas to manage sources of human-derived nutrients, thereby demonstrating how this framework can inform place-based ridge-to-reef management.

Opportunities and strategies to incorporate ecosystem services knowledge and decision support tools into planning and decision making in Hawai'i

Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai'i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial (n = 26) and marine (n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai'i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai'i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai'i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai'i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai'i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training.