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Kloek M, Chabata ST, van Noord L, Machingura F, Makandwa R, Dirawo J, Takaruza A, Matambanadzo P, de Vlas SJ, Hontelez JAC, Cowan FM. HIV prevalence, risk behaviour, and treatment and prevention cascade outcomes among cisgender men, transgender women, and transgender men who sell sex in Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional analysis of programme data. Lancet HIV 2023; 10:e453-e460. [PMID: 37329898 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(23)00088-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Revised: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is a paucity of evidence on HIV vulnerabilities and service engagements among people who sell sex in sub-Saharan Africa and identify as cisgender men, transgender women, or transgender men. We aimed to describe sexual risk behaviours, HIV prevalence, and access to HIV services among cisgender men, transgender women, and transgender men who sell sex in Zimbabwe. METHODS We did a cross-sectional analysis of routine programme data that were collected between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2020, from cisgender men who sell sex, transgender women who sell sex, and transgender men who sell sex, as part of accessing sexual and reproductive health and HIV services provided through the Sisters with a Voice programme, at 31 sites across Zimbabwe. All people who sell sex reached by the programme had routine data collected, including routine HIV testing, and were referred using a network of peer educators. Sexual risk behaviours, HIV prevalence, and HIV services uptake during the period from July, 2018, to June, 2020, were analysed through descriptive statistics by gender group. FINDINGS A total of 1003 people who sell sex were included in our analysis: 423 (42·2%) cisgender men, 343 (34·2%) transgender women, and 237 (23·6%) transgender men. Age-standardised HIV prevalence estimates were 26·2% (95% CI 22·0-30·7) among cisgender men, 39·4% (34·1-44·9) among transgender women, and 38·4% (32·1-45·0) among transgender men. Among people living with HIV, 66·0% (95% CI 55·7-75·3) of cisgender men, 74·8% (65·8-82·4) of transgender women, and 70·2% (59·3-79·7) of transgender men knew their HIV status, and 15·5% (8·9-24·2), 15·7% (9·5-23·6), and 11·9% (5·9-20·8) were on antiretroviral therapy, respectively. Self-reported condom use was consistently low across gender groups, ranging from 26% (95% CI 22-32) for anal sex among transgender women to 32% (27-37) for vaginal sex among cisgender men. INTERPRETATION These unique data show that people who sell sex and identify as cisgender men, transgender women, or transgender men in sub-Saharan Africa have high HIV prevalences and risk of infection, with alarmingly low access to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services. There is an urgent need for people-centred HIV interventions for these high-risk groups and for more inclusive HIV policies and research to ensure we truly attain universal access for all. FUNDING Aidsfonds Netherlands.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariëlle Kloek
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Sungai T Chabata
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research (CeSHHAR) Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Laura van Noord
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Fortunate Machingura
- Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research (CeSHHAR) Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Rumbidzo Makandwa
- Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research (CeSHHAR) Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Jeffrey Dirawo
- Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research (CeSHHAR) Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Albert Takaruza
- Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research (CeSHHAR) Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | | | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany.
| | - Frances M Cowan
- Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research (CeSHHAR) Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe; Department of International Public Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
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Hontelez JAC, Nagelkerke NJD, De Vlas SJ. HIV treatment as prevention: Bound to disappoint? Trop Med Int Health 2023; 28:158-161. [PMID: 36661311 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13856] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Nico J D Nagelkerke
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sake J De Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Kloek M, Bulstra CA, van Noord L, Al‐Hassany L, Cowan FM, Hontelez JAC. HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men, transgender women and cisgender male sex workers in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Int AIDS Soc 2022; 25:e26022. [PMID: 36419343 PMCID: PMC9684687 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2022] [Accepted: 09/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Developing effective targets, policies and services for key populations requires estimations of population sizes and HIV prevalence across countries and regions. We estimated the relative and absolute HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender women and men, and male and transgender sex workers (MSW and TGSW) in sub-Saharan African countries using peer-reviewed literature. METHODS We performed a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies assessing HIV prevalence in MSM, transgender women and men, MSW and TGSW in sub-Saharan Africa between 2010 and 2021, following PRISMA guidelines. We searched Embase, Medline Epub, Africa Index Medicus, Africa Journal Online, Web of Science and Google Scholar. We calculated HIV prevalence ratios (PRs) between the study prevalence, and the geospatial-, sex, time and age-matched general population prevalence. We extrapolated results for MSM and transgender women to estimate HIV prevalence and the number living with HIV for each country in sub-Saharan Africa using pooled review results, and regression approximations for countries with no peer-reviewed data. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION We found 44 articles assessing HIV prevalence in MSM, 10 in transgender women, five in MSW and zero in transgender men and TGSW. Prevalence among MSM and transgender women was significantly higher compared to the general population: PRs of 11.3 [CI: 9.9-12.9] for MSM and 8.1 [CI: 6.9-9.6] for transgender women in Western and Central Africa, and, respectively, 1.9 [CI: 1.7-2.0] and 2.1 [CI: 1.9-2.4] in Eastern and Southern Africa. Prevalence among MSW was significantly higher in both Nigeria (PR: 12.4 [CI: 7.3-21.0]) and Kenya (PR: 8.6 [CI: 4.6-15.6]). Extrapolating our findings for MSM and transgender women resulted in an estimated HIV prevalence of 15% or higher for about 60% of all sub-Saharan African countries for MSM, and for all but two countries for transgender women. CONCLUSIONS HIV prevalence among MSM and transgender women throughout sub-Saharan Africa is alarmingly high. This high prevalence, coupled with the specific risks and vulnerabilities faced by these populations, highlights the urgent need for risk-group-tailored prevention and treatment interventions across the sub-continent. There is a clear gap in knowledge on HIV prevalence among transgender men, MSW and TGSW in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariëlle Kloek
- Department of Public HealthErasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Caroline A. Bulstra
- Department of Public HealthErasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamThe Netherlands,Heidelberg Institute of Global HealthMedical Faculty and University HospitalHeidelberg UniversityHeidelbergGermany
| | - Laura van Noord
- Department of Public HealthErasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Lina Al‐Hassany
- Department of Public HealthErasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Frances M. Cowan
- Centre for Sexual Health and HIV AIDS Research (CeSHHAR) ZimbabweHarareZimbabwe,Department of International Public HealthLiverpool School of Tropical MedicineLiverpoolUK
| | - Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Department of Public HealthErasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamThe Netherlands,Heidelberg Institute of Global HealthMedical Faculty and University HospitalHeidelberg UniversityHeidelbergGermany
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Jansen EEL, de Kok IMCM, Kaljouw S, Demirel E, de Koning HJ, Hontelez JAC. Rapid elimination of cervical cancer while maintaining the harms and benefits ratio of cervical cancer screening: a modelling study. BMC Med 2022; 20:433. [PMID: 36352410 PMCID: PMC9645325 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02631-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and intensifying screening expedite cervical cancer (CC) elimination, yet also deteriorate the balance between harms and benefits of screening. We aimed to find screening strategies that eliminate CC rapidly but maintain an acceptable harms-benefits ratio of screening. METHODS Two microsimulation models (STDSIM and MISCAN) were applied to simulate HPV transmission and CC screening for the Dutch female population between 2022 and 2100. We estimated the CC elimination year and harms-benefits ratios of screening for 228 unique scenarios varying in vaccination (coverage and vaccine type) and screening (coverage and number of lifetime invitations in vaccinated cohorts). The acceptable harms-benefits ratio was defined as the number of women needed to refer (NNR) to prevent one CC death under the current programme for unvaccinated cohorts (82.17). RESULTS Under current vaccination conditions (bivalent vaccine, 55% coverage in girls, 27.5% coverage in boys), maintaining current screening conditions is projected to eliminate CC by 2042, but increases the present NNR with 41%. Reducing the number of lifetime screens from presently five to three and increasing screening coverage (61% to 70%) would prevent an increase in harms and only delay elimination by 1 year. Scaling vaccination coverage to 90% in boys and girls with the nonavalent vaccine is estimated to eliminate CC by 2040 under current screening conditions, but exceeds the acceptable NNR with 23%. Here, changing from five to two lifetime screens would keep the NNR acceptable without delaying CC elimination. CONCLUSIONS De-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts leads to little or no delay in CC elimination while it substantially reduces the harms of screening. Therefore, de-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts should be considered to ensure acceptable harms-benefits ratios on the road to CC elimination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erik E L Jansen
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Inge M C M de Kok
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sylvia Kaljouw
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Erhan Demirel
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Harry J de Koning
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
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Kloek M, Bulstra CA, Chabata ST, Fearon E, Taramusi I, de Vlas SJ, Cowan FM, Hontelez JAC. No increased HIV risk in general population near sex work sites: a nationally representative cross-sectional study in Zimbabwe. Trop Med Int Health 2022; 27:696-704. [PMID: 35687493 PMCID: PMC9545096 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13791] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Objectives Sex work sites have been hypothesised to be at the root of the observed heterogeneity in HIV prevalence in sub‐Saharan Africa. We determined if proximity to sex work sites is associated with HIV prevalence among the general population in Zimbabwe, a country with one of the highest HIV prevalence in the world. Methods In this cross‐sectional study we use a unique combination of nationally representative geolocated individual‐level data from 16,121 adults (age 15–49 years) from 400 sample locations and the locations of 55 sex work sites throughout Zimbabwe; covering an estimated 95% of all female sex workers (FSWs). We calculated the shortest distance by road from each survey sample location to the nearest sex work site, for all sites and by type of sex work site, and conducted univariate and multivariate multilevel logistic regressions to determine the association between distance to sex work sites and HIV seropositivity, controlling for age, sex, male circumcision status, number of lifetime sex partners, being a FSW client or being a stable partner of an FSW client. Results We found no significant association between HIV seroprevalence and proximity to the nearest sex work site among the general population in Zimbabwe, regardless of which type of site is closest (city site adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.010 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.992–1.028]; economic growth point site aOR 0.982 [95% CI 0.962–1.002]; international site aOR 0.995 [95% CI 0.979–1.012]; seasonal site aOR 0.987 [95% CI 0.968–1.006] and transport site aOR 1.007 [95% CI 0.987–1.028]). Individual‐level indicators of sex work were significantly associated with HIV seropositivity: being an FSW client (aOR 1.445 [95% CI 1.188–1.745]); nine or more partners versus having one to three lifetime partners (aOR 2.072 [95% CI 1.654–2.596]). Conclusions Sex work sites do not seem to directly affect HIV prevalence among the general population in surrounding areas. Prevention and control interventions for HIV at these locations should primarily focus on sex workers and their clients, with special emphasis on including and retaining mobile sex workers and clients into services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariёlle Kloek
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Caroline A Bulstra
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Sungai T Chabata
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.,Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Elizabeth Fearon
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Frances M Cowan
- Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research, Harare, Zimbabwe.,Department of International Public Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
| | - Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
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Abstract
Jan Hontelez and co-authors discuss the use of different types of evidence to inform HIV program integration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Caroline A. Bulstra
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Anna Yakusik
- The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Erik Lamontagne
- The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland
- Aix-Marseille School of Economics, CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, Aix-Marseille University, Les Milles, France
| | - Till W. Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Mtubatuba, South Africa
- Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Rifat Atun
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Bulstra CA, Hontelez JAC, Otto M, Stepanova A, Lamontagne E, Yakusik A, El-Sadr WM, Apollo T, Rabkin M, Atun R, Bärnighausen T. Integrating HIV services and other health services: A systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Med 2021; 18:e1003836. [PMID: 34752477 PMCID: PMC8577772 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2021] [Accepted: 10/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Integration of HIV services with other health services has been proposed as an important strategy to boost the sustainability of the global HIV response. We conducted a systematic and comprehensive synthesis of the existing scientific evidence on the impact of service integration on the HIV care cascade, health outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND FINDINGS We reviewed the global quantitative empirical evidence on integration published between 1 January 2010 and 10 September 2021. We included experimental and observational studies that featured both an integration intervention and a comparator in our review. Of the 7,118 unique peer-reviewed English-language studies that our search algorithm identified, 114 met all of our selection criteria for data extraction. Most of the studies (90) were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in East Africa (55) and Southern Africa (24). The most common forms of integration were (i) HIV testing and counselling added to non-HIV services and (ii) non-HIV services added to antiretroviral therapy (ART). The most commonly integrated non-HIV services were maternal and child healthcare, tuberculosis testing and treatment, primary healthcare, family planning, and sexual and reproductive health services. Values for HIV care cascade outcomes tended to be better in integrated services: uptake of HIV testing and counselling (pooled risk ratio [RR] across 37 studies: 1.67 [95% CI 1.41-1.99], p < 0.001), ART initiation coverage (pooled RR across 19 studies: 1.42 [95% CI 1.16-1.75], p = 0.002), time until ART initiation (pooled RR across 5 studies: 0.45 [95% CI 0.20-1.00], p = 0.050), retention in HIV care (pooled RR across 19 studies: 1.68 [95% CI 1.05-2.69], p = 0.031), and viral suppression (pooled RR across 9 studies: 1.19 [95% CI 1.03-1.37], p = 0.025). Also, treatment success for non-HIV-related diseases and conditions and the uptake of non-HIV services were commonly higher in integrated services. We did not find any significant differences for the following outcomes in our meta-analyses: HIV testing yield, ART adherence, HIV-free survival among infants, and HIV and non-HIV mortality. We could not conduct meta-analyses for several outcomes (HIV infections averted, costs, and cost-effectiveness), because our systematic review did not identify sufficient poolable studies. Study limitations included possible publication bias of studies with significant or favourable findings and comparatively weak evidence from some world regions and on integration of services for key populations in the HIV response. CONCLUSIONS Integration of HIV services and other health services tends to improve health and health systems outcomes. Despite some scientific limitations, the global evidence shows that service integration can be a valuable strategy to boost the sustainability of the HIV response and contribute to the goal of 'ending AIDS by 2030', while simultaneously supporting progress towards universal health coverage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caroline A. Bulstra
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- * E-mail:
| | - Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Moritz Otto
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Anna Stepanova
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Erik Lamontagne
- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland
- Aix-Marseille School of Economics, CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, Aix-Marseille University, Les Milles, France
| | - Anna Yakusik
- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Wafaa M. El-Sadr
- ICAP, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | | | - Miriam Rabkin
- ICAP, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | | | - Rifat Atun
- Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
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Naslazi E, Hontelez JAC, Naber SK, van Ballegooijen M, de Kok IMCM. The Differential Risk of Cervical Cancer in HPV-Vaccinated and -Unvaccinated Women: A Mathematical Modeling Study. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2021; 30:912-919. [PMID: 33837119 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-20-1321] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2020] [Revised: 01/15/2021] [Accepted: 02/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With increased uptake of vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), protection against cervical cancer will also increase for unvaccinated women, due to herd immunity. Still, the differential risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated women might warrant a vaccination-status-screening approach. To understand the potential value of stratified screening protocols, we estimated the risk differentials in HPV and cervical cancer between vaccinated and unvaccinated women. METHODS We used STDSIM, an individual-based model of HPV transmission and control, to estimate the HPV prevalence reduction over time, after introduction of HPV vaccination. We simulated scenarios of bivalent or nonavalent vaccination in females-only or females and males, at 20% coverage increments. We estimated relative HPV-type-specific prevalence reduction compared with a no-vaccination counterfactual and then estimated the age-specific cervical cancer risk by vaccination status. RESULTS The relative cervical cancer risk for unvaccinated compared with vaccinated women ranged from 1.7 (bivalent vaccine for females and males; 80% coverage) to 10.8 (nonavalent vaccine for females-only; 20% coverage). Under 60% vaccination coverage, which is a representative coverage for several western countries, including the United States, the relative risk (RR) varies between 2.2 (bivalent vaccine for females and males) and 9.2 (nonavalent vaccine for females). CONCLUSIONS We found large cervical cancer risk differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated women. In general, our model shows that the RR is higher in lower vaccine coverages, using the nonavalent vaccine, and when vaccinating females only. IMPACT To avoid a disbalance in harms and benefits between vaccinated and unvaccinated women, vaccination-based screening needs serious consideration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emi Naslazi
- Erasmus Medical Center-University Medical Center, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
| | - Jan A C Hontelez
- Erasmus Medical Center-University Medical Center, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Steffie K Naber
- Erasmus Medical Center-University Medical Center, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Marjolein van Ballegooijen
- Erasmus Medical Center-University Medical Center, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Inge M C M de Kok
- Erasmus Medical Center-University Medical Center, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
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Osetinsky B, Hontelez JAC, Lurie MN, McGarvey ST, Bloomfield GS, Pastakia SD, Wamai R, Bärnighausen T, de Vlas SJ, Galárraga O. Epidemiological And Health Systems Implications Of Evolving HIV And Hypertension In South Africa And Kenya. Health Aff (Millwood) 2020; 38:1173-1181. [PMID: 31260360 DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
Health systems in sub-Saharan Africa are facing an ongoing HIV epidemic and increasing burden of noncommunicable disease. With the focus shifting to the development of comprehensive primary health care and chronic disease treatment, multidisease modeling is integral to estimating future health care needs. We extended an established agent-based model of HIV transmission to include hypertension in two rural settings: KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and western Kenya. We estimated that from 2018 to 2028 hypertension prevalence would increase from 40 percent to 46 percent in KwaZulu-Natal and from 29 percent to 35 percent in western Kenya, while HIV prevalence is stabilizing and predicted to decrease. As the health system burden in sub-Saharan Africa is changing, innovative chronic disease treatment and the broadening of successful programs, such as integrated HIV and noncommunicable disease care, are necessary to reach universal health care coverage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brianna Osetinsky
- Brianna Osetinsky is a PhD candidate in the Department of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health, in Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Jan A C Hontelez
- Jan A. C. Hontelez is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Health at Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, and at the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, in Germany
| | - Mark N Lurie
- Mark N. Lurie is an associate professor in the Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health
| | - Stephen T McGarvey
- Stephen T. McGarvey is director of the International Health Institute and a professor in the Department of Epidemiology, both at the Brown University School of Public Health
| | - Gerald S Bloomfield
- Gerald S. Bloomfield is an associate professor in the Department of Medicine and Global Health, Duke University School of Medicine, in Durham, North Carolina
| | - Sonak D Pastakia
- Sonak D. Pastakia is a professor of pharmacy practice with the Purdue Kenya Partnership, Purdue University College of Pharmacy, in Eldoret, Kenya
| | - Richard Wamai
- Richard Wamai is an associate professor in the Department of Cultures, Societies, and Global Studies, Northeastern University, in Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Till Bärnighausen is the Alexander von Humboldt University Professor and director of the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University. He is also senior faculty at the Africa Health Research Institute, in Somkhele, South Africa, and an adjunct professor of global health at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, in Boston
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Sake J. de Vlas is a professor in the Department of Public Health at Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam
| | - Omar Galárraga
- Omar Galárraga ( ) is an associate professor in the Department of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health
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Bulstra CA, Hontelez JAC, Giardina F, Steen R, Nagelkerke NJD, Bärnighausen T, de Vlas SJ. Mapping and characterising areas with high levels of HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa: A geospatial analysis of national survey data. PLoS Med 2020; 17:e1003042. [PMID: 32142509 PMCID: PMC7059914 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2019] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the generalised epidemics of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence shows patterns of clustered micro-epidemics. We mapped and characterised these high-prevalence areas for young adults (15-29 years of age), as a proxy for areas with high levels of transmission, for 7 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa: Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. METHODS AND FINDINGS We used geolocated survey data from the most recent United States Agency for International Development (USAID) demographic and health surveys (DHSs) and AIDS indicator surveys (AISs) (collected between 2008-2009 and 2015-2016), which included about 113,000 adults-of which there were about 53,000 young adults (27,000 women, 28,000 men)-from over 3,500 sample locations. First, ordinary kriging was applied to predict HIV prevalence at unmeasured locations. Second, we explored to what extent behavioural, socioeconomic, and environmental factors explain HIV prevalence at the individual- and sample-location level, by developing a series of multilevel multivariable logistic regression models and geospatially visualising unexplained model heterogeneity. National-level HIV prevalence for young adults ranged from 2.2% in Tanzania to 7.7% in Mozambique. However, at the subnational level, we found areas with prevalence among young adults as high as 11% or 15% alternating with areas with prevalence between 0% and 2%, suggesting the existence of areas with high levels of transmission Overall, 15.6% of heterogeneity could be explained by an interplay of known behavioural, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Maps of the interpolated random effect estimates show that environmental variables, representing indicators of economic activity, were most powerful in explaining high-prevalence areas. Main study limitations were the inability to infer causality due to the cross-sectional nature of the surveys and the likely under-sampling of key populations in the surveys. CONCLUSIONS We found that, among young adults, micro-epidemics of relatively high HIV prevalence alternate with areas of very low prevalence, clearly illustrating the existence of areas with high levels of transmission. These areas are partially characterised by high economic activity, relatively high socioeconomic status, and risky sexual behaviour. Localised HIV prevention interventions specifically tailored to the populations at risk will be essential to curb transmission. More fine-scale geospatial mapping of key populations,-such as sex workers and migrant populations-could help us further understand the drivers of these areas with high levels of transmission and help us determine how they fuel the generalised epidemics in SSA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caroline A. Bulstra
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Federica Giardina
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Richard Steen
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Nico J. D. Nagelkerke
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Sake J. de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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11
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Hontelez JAC, Bor J, Tanser FC, Pillay D, Moshabela M, Bärnighausen T. HIV Treatment Substantially Decreases Hospitalization Rates: Evidence From Rural South Africa. Health Aff (Millwood) 2019; 37:997-1004. [PMID: 29863928 DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
The effect of HIV treatment on hospitalization rates for HIV-infected people has never been established. We quantified this effect in a rural South African community for the period 2009-13. We linked clinical data on HIV treatment start dates for more than 2,000 patients receiving care in the public-sector treatment program with five years of longitudinal data on self-reported hospitalizations from a community-based population cohort of more than 100,000 adults. Hospitalization rates peaked during the first year of treatment and were about five times higher, compared to hospitalization rates after four years on treatment. Earlier treatment initiation could save more than US$300,000 per 1,000 patients over the first four years of HIV treatment, freeing up scarce resources. Future studies on the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment should include these effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan A C Hontelez
- Jan A. C. Hontelez ( ) is an assistant professor at Erasmus University Medical Center, in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and at the Heidelberg Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, in Germany
| | - Jacob Bor
- Jacob Bor is an assistant professor in the Departments of Global Health and Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, in Massachusetts
| | - Frank C Tanser
- Frank C. Tanser is a professor of epidemiology at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and senior faculty member of the Africa Health Research Institute. He also holds an honorary professorship in the Research Department of Infection and Population Health, University College London, and is a research associate of the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal
| | - Deenan Pillay
- Deenan Pillay is director of the Africa Health Research Institute
| | - Mosa Moshabela
- Mosa Moshabela is head of the Department of Rural Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, and a senior researcher at the Africa Health Research Institute
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Till Bärnighausen is the Alexander von Humboldt University Professor and director of the Heidelberg Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University. He is also senior faculty at the Africa Health Research Institute in Somkhele, South Africa, and an adjunct professor of global health at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, in Boston
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12
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Hontelez JAC, Bor J, Bärnighausen T. Early HIV Treatment: The Authors Reply. Health Aff (Millwood) 2018; 37:1342. [DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.0826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Jacob Bor
- Boston University Boston, Massachusetts
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13
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Lenk EJ, Redekop WK, Luyendijk M, Fitzpatrick C, Niessen L, Stolk WA, Tediosi F, Rijnsburger AJ, Bakker R, Hontelez JAC, Richardus JH, Jacobson J, Le Rutte EA, de Vlas SJ, Severens JL. Socioeconomic benefit to individuals of achieving 2020 targets for four neglected tropical diseases controlled/eliminated by innovative and intensified disease management: Human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis, Chagas disease. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006250. [PMID: 29534061 PMCID: PMC5849290 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2015] [Accepted: 01/18/2018] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has targets defined by the WHO for 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration. We estimated the economic impact to individuals of meeting these targets for human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis and Chagas disease, NTDs controlled or eliminated by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). METHODS A systematic literature review identified information on productivity loss and out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) related to these NTDs, which were combined with projections of the number of people suffering from each NTD, country and year for 2011-2020 and 2021-2030. The ideal scenario in which the WHO's 2020 targets are met was compared with a counterfactual scenario that assumed the situation of 1990 stayed unaltered. Economic benefit equaled the difference between the two scenarios. Values are reported in 2005 US$, purchasing power parity-adjusted, discounted at 3% per annum from 2010. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to quantify the degree of uncertainty around the base-case impact estimate. RESULTS The total global productivity gained for the four IDM-NTDs was I$ 23.1 (I$ 15.9 -I$ 34.0) billion in 2011-2020 and I$ 35.9 (I$ 25.0 -I$ 51.9) billion in 2021-2030 (2.5th and 97.5th percentiles in brackets), corresponding to US$ 10.7 billion (US$ 7.4 -US$ 15.7) and US$ 16.6 billion (US$ 11.6 -US$ 24.0). Reduction in OPPs was I$ 14 billion (US$ 6.7 billion) and I$ 18 billion (US$ 10.4 billion) for the same periods. CONCLUSIONS We faced important limitations to our work, such as finding no OPPs for leprosy. We had to combine limited data from various sources, heterogeneous background, and of variable quality. Nevertheless, based on conservative assumptions and subsequent uncertainty analyses, we estimate that the benefits of achieving the targets are considerable. Under plausible scenarios, the economic benefits far exceed the necessary investments by endemic country governments and their development partners. Given the higher frequency of NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in the effort to improve well-being, distribute the world's prosperity more equitably and reduce inequity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edeltraud J. Lenk
- Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - William K. Redekop
- Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marianne Luyendijk
- Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Christopher Fitzpatrick
- Department of control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Louis Niessen
- Centre for Applied Health Research and Delivery, Department of International Public Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Wilma A. Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Fabrizio Tediosi
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | | | - Roel Bakker
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jan H. Richardus
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Julie Jacobson
- Global Health Program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Epke A. Le Rutte
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sake J. de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Johan L. Severens
- Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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14
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Legemate EM, Hontelez JAC, Looman CWN, de Vlas SJ. Behavioural disinhibition in the general population during the antiretroviral therapy roll-out in Sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis. Trop Med Int Health 2017; 22:797-806. [PMID: 28449332 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.12885] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Improved life expectancy and reduced transmission probabilities due to ART may result in behavioural disinhibition - that is an increase in sexual risk behaviour in response to a perceived lower risk of HIV. We examined trends in sexual risk behaviour in the general population of sub-Saharan African countries 1999-2015. METHODS We systematically reviewed scientific literature of sexual behaviour and reviewed trends in Demographic and Health Surveys. A meta-analysis on four indicators of sexual risk behaviour was performed: unprotected sex, multiple sexual partners, commercial sex and prevalence of sexually transmitted infections. RESULTS Only two peer-reviewed studies met our inclusion criteria, while our review of DHS data spanned 18 countries and 16 years (1999-2015). We found conflicting trends in sexual risk behaviour. Reported unprotected sex decreased consistently across the 18 countries, for both sexes. In contrast, reporting multiple partners was decreasing over the period 1999 to the mid-2000s, yet has been consistently increasing thereafter. Similar trends were found for reported sexually transmitted infections and commercial sex (men only). CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, we found no clear evidence of behavioural disinhibition due to expanded access to ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Substantial increases in condom use coincided with increases in reported multiple partners, commercial sex and sexually transmitted infections, especially during the period of ART scale-up. Further research is needed into how these changes might affect HIV transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eva M Legemate
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.,Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Caspar W N Looman
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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15
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Mikkelsen E, Hontelez JAC, Jansen MPM, Bärnighausen T, Hauck K, Johansson KA, Meyer-Rath G, Over M, de Vlas SJ, van der Wilt GJ, Tromp N, Bijlmakers L, Baltussen RMPM. Evidence for scaling up HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: A call for incorporating health system constraints. PLoS Med 2017; 14:e1002240. [PMID: 28222126 PMCID: PMC5319640 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002240] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Jan Hontelez and colleagues argue that the cost-effectiveness studies of HIV treatment scale-up need to include health system constraints to be more informative.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evelinn Mikkelsen
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Africa Centre for Population Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
| | - Maarten P. M. Jansen
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Africa Centre for Population Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Katharina Hauck
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kjell A. Johansson
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Department of Addiction Medicine, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway
| | - Gesine Meyer-Rath
- Center for Global Health and Development, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Mead Over
- Center for Global Development, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America
| | - Sake J. de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Gert J. van der Wilt
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Noor Tromp
- Royal Tropical Institute (KIT), Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Leon Bijlmakers
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Rob M. P. M. Baltussen
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
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16
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Redekop WK, Lenk EJ, Luyendijk M, Fitzpatrick C, Niessen L, Stolk WA, Tediosi F, Rijnsburger AJ, Bakker R, Hontelez JAC, Richardus JH, Jacobson J, de Vlas SJ, Severens JL. The Socioeconomic Benefit to Individuals of Achieving the 2020 Targets for Five Preventive Chemotherapy Neglected Tropical Diseases. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005289. [PMID: 28103243 PMCID: PMC5313231 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2015] [Revised: 02/16/2017] [Accepted: 12/28/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and trachoma represent the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). They can be controlled or eliminated by means of safe and cost-effective interventions delivered through programs of Mass Drug Administration (MDA)-also named Preventive Chemotherapy (PCT). The WHO defined targets for NTD control/elimination by 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration, which, if achieved, would result in dramatic health gains. We estimated the potential economic benefit of achieving these targets, focusing specifically on productivity and out-of-pocket payments. METHODS Productivity loss was calculated by combining disease frequency with productivity loss from the disease, from the perspective of affected individuals. Productivity gain was calculated by deducting the total loss expected in the target achievement scenario from the loss in a counterfactual scenario where it was assumed the pre-intervention situation in 1990 regarding NTDs would continue unabated until 2030. Economic benefits from out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) were calculated similarly. Benefits are reported in 2005 US$ (purchasing power parity-adjusted and discounted at 3% per annum from 2010). Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the influence of changes in input parameters. RESULTS The economic benefit from productivity gain was estimated to be I$251 billion in 2011-2020 and I$313 billion in 2021-2030, considerably greater than the total OPPs averted of I$0.72 billion and I$0.96 billion in the same periods. The net benefit is expected to be US$ 27.4 and US$ 42.8 for every dollar invested during the same periods. Impact varies between NTDs and regions, since it is determined by disease prevalence and extent of disease-related productivity loss. CONCLUSION Achieving the PCT-NTD targets for 2020 will yield significant economic benefits to affected individuals. Despite large uncertainty, these benefits far exceed the investment required by governments and their development partners within all reasonable scenarios. Given the concentration of the NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in efforts to share the world's prosperity and reduce inequity.
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Affiliation(s)
- William K. Redekop
- Institute of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Edeltraud J. Lenk
- Institute of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marianne Luyendijk
- Institute of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Louis Niessen
- Centre for Applied Health Research and Delivery, Department of International Public Health, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Wilma A. Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Fabrizio Tediosi
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | | | - Roel Bakker
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jan H. Richardus
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Julie Jacobson
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Sake J. de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Johan L. Severens
- Institute of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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17
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Brisson M, Bénard É, Drolet M, Bogaards JA, Baussano I, Vänskä S, Jit M, Boily MC, Smith MA, Berkhof J, Canfell K, Chesson HW, Burger EA, Choi YH, De Blasio BF, De Vlas SJ, Guzzetta G, Hontelez JAC, Horn J, Jepsen MR, Kim JJ, Lazzarato F, Matthijsse SM, Mikolajczyk R, Pavelyev A, Pillsbury M, Shafer LA, Tully SP, Turner HC, Usher C, Walsh C. Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models. Lancet Public Health 2016; 1:e8-e17. [PMID: 29253379 PMCID: PMC6727207 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(16)30001-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 173] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2016] [Revised: 08/26/2016] [Accepted: 08/30/2016] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination. METHODS We searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RRprev) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI]). FINDINGS 16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46-0·68) and 0·36 (0·28-0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90-1·00) and 0·83 (0·75-1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13-0·32) and 0·35 (0·27-0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00-0·10) and 0·16 (0·01-0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RRprev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RRprev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years). INTERPRETATION Although HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time. FUNDING Canadian Institutes of Health Research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marc Brisson
- Centre de recherche du CHU de Québec-Université Laval, Quebec City, QC, Canada; Département de médecine sociale et préventive, Université Laval, Quebec City, QC, Canada; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.
| | - Élodie Bénard
- Centre de recherche du CHU de Québec-Université Laval, Quebec City, QC, Canada; Département de médecine sociale et préventive, Université Laval, Quebec City, QC, Canada
| | - Mélanie Drolet
- Centre de recherche du CHU de Québec-Université Laval, Quebec City, QC, Canada
| | - Johannes A Bogaards
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | - Iacopo Baussano
- Infection and Cancer Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Simopekka Vänskä
- Vaccination Programme Unit, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mark Jit
- Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Marie-Claude Boily
- Département de médecine sociale et préventive, Université Laval, Quebec City, QC, Canada; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK
| | - Megan A Smith
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Johannes Berkhof
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Karen Canfell
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Lowy Cancer Research Centre, Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Harrell W Chesson
- Division of STD Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Emily A Burger
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Yoon H Choi
- National Infection Service, Public Health England, London, UK
| | - Birgitte Freiesleben De Blasio
- Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Division of Infectious Disease Control, Norwegian Institute of Public Health and Oslo Centre for Statistics and Epidemiology, Oslo, Norway; Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Sake J De Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | | | - Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Johannes Horn
- Epidemiological and Statistical Methods Research Group, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany
| | - Martin R Jepsen
- Section for Geography, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jane J Kim
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Fulvio Lazzarato
- Infection and Cancer Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
| | - Suzette M Matthijsse
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Rafael Mikolajczyk
- Epidemiological and Statistical Methods Research Group, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany
| | | | | | - Leigh Anne Shafer
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Stephen P Tully
- Infection and Cancer Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hugo C Turner
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK
| | - Cara Usher
- National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics (NCPE Ireland), Dublin, Ireland
| | - Cathal Walsh
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland
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Hontelez JAC, Tanser FC, Naidu KK, Pillay D, Bärnighausen T. The Effect of Antiretroviral Treatment on Health Care Utilization in Rural South Africa: A Population-Based Cohort Study. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0158015. [PMID: 27384178 PMCID: PMC4934780 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2016] [Accepted: 06/08/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The effect of the rapid scale-up of vertical antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa on the overall health system is under intense debate. Some have argued that these programs have reduced access for people suffering from diseases unrelated to HIV because ART programs have drained human and physical resources from other parts of the health system; others have claimed that the investments through ART programs have strengthened the general health system and the population health impacts of ART have freed up health care capacity for the treatment of diseases that are not related to HIV. To establish the population-level impact of ART programs on health care utilization in the public-sector health system, we compared trends in health care utilization among HIV-infected people receiving and not receiving ART with HIV-uninfected people during a period of rapid ART scale-up. Methods and Findings We used data from the Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Population Health, which annually elicited information on health care utilization from all surveillance participants over the period 2009–2012 (N = 32,319). We determined trends in hospitalization, and public-sector and private-sector primary health care (PHC) clinic visits for HIV-infected and -uninfected people over a time period of rapid ART scale-up (2009–2012) in this community. We regressed health care utilization on HIV status and ART status in different calendar years, controlling for sex, age, and area of residence. The proportion of people who reported to have visited a public-sector primary health care (PHC) clinic in the last 6 months increased significantly over the period 2009–2012, for both HIV-infected people (from 59% to 67%; p<0.001), and HIV-uninfected people (from 41% to 47%; p<0.001). In contrast, the proportion of HIV-infected people visiting a private-sector PHC clinic declined from 22% to 12% (p<0.001) and hospitalization rates declined from 128 to 82 per 1000 PY (p<0.001). For HIV-uninfected people, the proportion visiting a private-sector PHC clinic declined from 16% to 9%, and hospitalization rates declined from 78 to 44 per 1000 PY (p<0.001). After controlling for potential confounding factors, all trends remained of similar magnitude and significance. Conclusions Our results indicate that the ART scale-up in this high HIV prevalence community has shifted health care utilization from hospitals and private-sector primary care to public-sector primary care. Remarkably, this shift is observed for both HIV-infected and -uninfected populations, supporting and extending hypotheses of ‘therapeutic citizenship’ whereby HIV-infected patients receiving ART facilitate primary care access for family and community members. One explanation of our findings is that ART has improved the capacity or quality of primary care in this community and, as a consequence, increasingly met overall health care needs at the primary care level rather than at the secondary level. Future research needs to confirm this causal interpretation of our findings using qualitative work to understand causal mechanisms or quasi-experimental quantitative studies to increase the strength of causal inference.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Population Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States of America
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
- * E-mail:
| | - Frank C. Tanser
- Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Population Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Kevindra K. Naidu
- Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Population Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
| | - Deenan Pillay
- Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Population Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
- Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Population Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States of America
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Matthijsse SM, Hontelez JAC, Naber SK, Rozemeijer K, de Kok IMCM, Bakker R, van Ballegooijen M, van Rosmalen J, de Vlas SJ. Public Health Benefits of Routine Human Papillomavirus Vaccination for Adults in the Netherlands: A Mathematical Modeling Study. J Infect Dis 2016; 214:854-61. [PMID: 27330051 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiw256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2016] [Accepted: 06/13/2016] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Expanding routine human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to adults could be an effective strategy to improve prevention of HPV infection and cervical cancer. METHODS We evaluated the following adult vaccination strategies for women only and for both women and men in addition to the current girls-only vaccination program in the Netherlands, using the established STDSIM microsimulation model: one-time mass campaign, vaccination at the first cervical cancer screening visit, vaccination at sexual health clinics, and combinations of these strategies. RESULTS The estimated impact of expanding routine vaccination to adult women is modest, with the largest incremental reductions in the incidence of HPV infection occurring when offering vaccination both at the cervical cancer screening visit and during sexually transmitted infection (STI) consultations (about 20% lower after 50 years for both HPV-16 and HPV-18). Adding male vaccination during STI consultations leads to more-substantial incidence reductions: 63% for HPV-16 and 84% for HPV-18. The incremental number needed to vaccinate among women is 5.48, compared with 0.90 for the current vaccination program. CONCLUSIONS Offering vaccination to adults, especially at cervical cancer screening visits (for women) and during STI consultations (for both sexes), would substantially reduce HPV incidence and would be an efficient policy option to improve HPV prevention and subsequently avert cervical and possibly male HPV-related cancers.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Joost van Rosmalen
- Department of Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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de Vlas SJ, Stolk WA, le Rutte EA, Hontelez JAC, Bakker R, Blok DJ, Cai R, Houweling TAJ, Kulik MC, Lenk EJ, Luyendijk M, Matthijsse SM, Redekop WK, Wagenaar I, Jacobson J, Nagelkerke NJD, Richardus JH. Concerted Efforts to Control or Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases: How Much Health Will Be Gained? PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10:e0004386. [PMID: 26890362 PMCID: PMC4758649 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2015] [Accepted: 12/21/2015] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The London Declaration (2012) was formulated to support and focus the control and elimination of ten neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), with targets for 2020 as formulated by the WHO Roadmap. Five NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths and trachoma) are to be controlled by preventive chemotherapy (PCT), and four (Chagas’ disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis) by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). Guinea worm, virtually eradicated, is not considered here. We aim to estimate the global health impact of meeting these targets in terms of averted morbidity, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study provides prevalence and burden estimates for all nine NTDs in 1990 and 2010, by country, age and sex, which were taken as the basis for our calculations. Estimates for other years were obtained by interpolating between 1990 (or the start-year of large-scale control efforts) and 2010, and further extrapolating until 2030, such that the 2020 targets were met. The NTD disease manifestations considered in the GBD study were analyzed as either reversible or irreversible. Health impacts were assessed by comparing the results of achieving the targets with the counterfactual, construed as the health burden had the 1990 (or 2010 if higher) situation continued unabated. Principle Findings/Conclusions Our calculations show that meeting the targets will lead to about 600 million averted DALYs in the period 2011–2030, nearly equally distributed between PCT and IDM-NTDs, with the health gain amongst PCT-NTDs mostly (96%) due to averted disability and amongst IDM-NTDs largely (95%) from averted mortality. These health gains include about 150 million averted irreversible disease manifestations (e.g. blindness) and 5 million averted deaths. Control of soil-transmitted helminths accounts for one third of all averted DALYs. We conclude that the projected health impact of the London Declaration justifies the required efforts. Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a group of infectious diseases that occur mostly in poor, warm countries. NTDs are caused by various bacteria and parasites, such as worms. They can either be cured or prevented through drugs and other interventions, such as control of insects that spread the infection. The London Declaration is a statement by various organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and pharmaceutical companies that donate the necessary drugs. The declaration endorses targets for disease reductions by 2020, as recently formulated in the WHO Roadmap, to be achieved by rigorous application of available interventions. We explore how much health can be gained if these targets are indeed achieved. We estimate that in such case 5 million deaths can be averted before 2030 and also that huge reductions in ill-health and disability can be realized. Over the period 2011–2030, a total health gain would be accomplished of about 600 million disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. DALYs are a measure of disease burden, consisting of life years lost and years lived with disability. This enormous health gain seems to justify similar investments as for e.g. HIV or malaria control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sake J. de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- * E-mail:
| | - Wilma A. Stolk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Epke A. le Rutte
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Roel Bakker
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - David J. Blok
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rui Cai
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Tanja A. J. Houweling
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Margarete C. Kulik
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Edeltraud J. Lenk
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marianne Luyendijk
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Suzette M. Matthijsse
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - William K. Redekop
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Inge Wagenaar
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Julie Jacobson
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Nico J. D. Nagelkerke
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jan H. Richardus
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Matthijsse SM, van Rosmalen J, Hontelez JAC, Bakker R, de Kok IMCM, van Ballegooijen M, de Vlas SJ. The role of acquired immunity in the spread of human papillomavirus (HPV): explorations with a microsimulation model. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0116618. [PMID: 25642941 PMCID: PMC4314063 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0116618] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2014] [Accepted: 12/06/2014] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Knowledge of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV), in particular the role of immunity, is crucial in estimating the (cost-) effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening strategies, because naturally acquired immunity after clearing an infection may already protect part of the risk population against new HPV infections. Methods We used STDSIM, an established stochastic microsimulation model, quantified to the Netherlands. We explored different assumptions regarding the natural history of HPV-16 and HPV-18, and estimated the transmission probabilities and durations of acquired immunity necessary to reproduce age-specific prevalence. Results A model without acquired immunity cannot reproduce the age-specific patterns of HPV. Also, it is necessary to assume a high degree of individual variation in the duration of infection and acquired immunity. According to the model estimates, on average 20% of women are immune for HPV-16 and 15% for HPV-18. After an HPV-16 infection, 50% are immune for less than 1 year, whereas 20% exceed 30 years. For HPV-18, up to 12% of the individuals are immune for less than 1 year, and about 50% over 30 years. Almost half of all women will never acquire HPV-16 or HPV-18. Conclusions Acquired immunity likely plays a major role in HPV epidemiology, but its duration shows substantial variation. Combined with the lifetime risk, this explains to a large extent why many women will never develop cervical cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Suzette M. Matthijsse
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- * E-mail:
| | - Joost van Rosmalen
- Department of Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Jan A. C. Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Roel Bakker
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Inge M. C. M. de Kok
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Marjolein van Ballegooijen
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Sake J. de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
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22
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Eaton JW, Menzies NA, Stover J, Cambiano V, Chindelevitch L, Cori A, Hontelez JAC, Humair S, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Mishra S, Mitchell KM, Nichols BE, Vickerman P, Bakker R, Bärnighausen T, Bershteyn A, Bloom DE, Boily MC, Chang ST, Cohen T, Dodd PJ, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Lundgren J, Martin NK, Mikkelsen E, Mountain E, Pham QD, Pickles M, Phillips A, Platt L, Pretorius C, Prudden HJ, Salomon JA, van de Vijver DAMC, de Vlas SJ, Wagner BG, White RG, Wilson DP, Zhang L, Blandford J, Meyer-Rath G, Remme M, Revill P, Sangrujee N, Terris-Prestholt F, Doherty M, Shaffer N, Easterbrook PJ, Hirnschall G, Hallett TB. Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models. Lancet Glob Health 2013; 2:23-34. [PMID: 25083415 PMCID: PMC4114402 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(13)70172-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 177] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. METHODS We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the $/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia: $1425, India: $1489, Vietnam: $1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. FINDINGS In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from $237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to $749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to $241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. INTERPRETATION Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. FUNDING The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeffrey W Eaton
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Nicolas A Menzies
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Valentina Cambiano
- Research Department of Infection and Population Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Leonid Chindelevitch
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Anne Cori
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
- Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
- Nijmegen International Center for Health System Analysis and Education (NICHE), Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Nijmegen, Netherlands
| | - Salal Humair
- Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Cliff C Kerr
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Daniel J Klein
- Epidemiological Modeling Group, Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, Bellevue, WA, USA
| | - Sharmistha Mishra
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Division of Infectious Diseases, St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto, Canada
| | - Kate M Mitchell
- Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Brooke E Nichols
- Department of Virology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Peter Vickerman
- Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Roel Bakker
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
- Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Anna Bershteyn
- Epidemiological Modeling Group, Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, Bellevue, WA, USA
| | | | - Marie-Claude Boily
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Stewart T Chang
- Epidemiological Modeling Group, Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, Bellevue, WA, USA
| | - Ted Cohen
- Division of Global Health Equity, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Peter J Dodd
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christophe Fraser
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Jens Lundgren
- Copenhagen University Hospital/Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark
- University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Natasha K Martin
- Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Evelinn Mikkelsen
- Nijmegen International Center for Health System Analysis and Education (NICHE), Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Nijmegen, Netherlands
| | - Elisa Mountain
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Quang D Pham
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Michael Pickles
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Andrew Phillips
- Research Department of Infection and Population Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy Platt
- Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Holly J Prudden
- Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Joshua A Salomon
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Bradley G Wagner
- Epidemiological Modeling Group, Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, Bellevue, WA, USA
| | - Richard G White
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - David P Wilson
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Lei Zhang
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - John Blandford
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Gesine Meyer-Rath
- Center for Global Health and Development, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Michelle Remme
- Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Paul Revill
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
| | | | - Fern Terris-Prestholt
- Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Meg Doherty
- Department of HIV/AIDS, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Nathan Shaffer
- Department of HIV/AIDS, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | | | - Timothy B Hallett
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Hontelez JAC, de Vlas SJ, Baltussen R, Newell ML, Bakker R, Tanser F, Lurie M, Bärnighausen T. The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the age composition of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 2012; 26 Suppl 1:S19-30. [PMID: 22781175 PMCID: PMC3886374 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0b013e3283558526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 124] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage is rapidly expanding in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Based on the effect of ART on survival of HIV-infected people and HIV transmission, the age composition of the HIV epidemic in the region is expected to change in the coming decades. We quantify the change in the age composition of HIV-infected people in all countries in SSA. METHODS We used STDSIM, a stochastic microsimulation model, and developed an approach to represent HIV prevalence and treatment coverage in 43 countries in SSA, using publicly available data. We predict future trends in HIV prevalence and total number of HIV-infected people aged 15-49 years and 50 years or older for different ART coverage levels. RESULTS We show that, if treatment coverage continues to increase at present rates, the total number of HIV-infected people aged 50 years or older will nearly triple over the coming years: from 3.1 million in 2011 to 9.1 million in 2040, dramatically changing the age composition of the HIV epidemic in SSA. In 2011, about one in seven HIV-infected people was aged 50 years or older; in 2040, this ratio will be larger than one in four. CONCLUSION The HIV epidemic in SSA is rapidly ageing, implying changing needs and demands in many social sectors, including health, social care, and old-age pension systems. Health policymakers need to anticipate the impact of the changing HIV age composition in their planning for future capacity in these systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
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Zelle SG, Nyarko KM, Bosu WK, Aikins M, Niëns LM, Lauer JA, Sepulveda CR, Hontelez JAC, Baltussen R. Costs, effects and cost-effectiveness of breast cancer control in Ghana. Trop Med Int Health 2012; 17:1031-43. [PMID: 22809238 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2012.03021.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Breast cancer control in Ghana is characterised by low awareness, late-stage treatment and poor survival. In settings with severely constrained health resources, there is a need to spend money wisely. To achieve this and to guide policy makers in their selection of interventions, this study systematically compares costs and effects of breast cancer control interventions in Ghana. METHODS We used a mathematical model to estimate costs and health effects of breast cancer interventions in Ghana from the healthcare perspective. Analyses were based on the WHO-CHOICE method, with health effects expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), costs in 2009 US dollars (US$) and cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) in US$ per DALY averted. Analyses were based on local demographic, epidemiological and economic data, to the extent these data were available. RESULTS Biennial screening by clinical breast examination (CBE) of women aged 40-69 years, in combination with treatment of all stages, seems the most cost-effective intervention (costing $1299 per DALY averted). The intervention is also economically attractive according to international standards on cost-effectiveness. Mass media awareness raising (MAR) is the second best option (costing $1364 per DALY averted). Mammography screening of women of aged 40-69 years (costing $12,908 per DALY averted) cannot be considered cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS Both CBE screening and MAR seem economically attractive interventions. Given the uncertainty about the effectiveness of these interventions, only their phased introduction, carefully monitored and evaluated, is warranted. Moreover, their implementation is only meaningful if the capacity of basic cancer diagnostic, referral and treatment and possibly palliative services is simultaneously improved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sten G Zelle
- Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
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Eaton JW, Johnson LF, Salomon JA, Bärnighausen T, Bendavid E, Bershteyn A, Bloom DE, Cambiano V, Fraser C, Hontelez JAC, Humair S, Klein DJ, Long EF, Phillips AN, Pretorius C, Stover J, Wenger EA, Williams BG, Hallett TB. HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa. PLoS Med 2012; 9:e1001245. [PMID: 22802730 PMCID: PMC3393664 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 301] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2012] [Accepted: 05/10/2012] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. METHODS AND FINDINGS Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. CONCLUSIONS Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeffrey W Eaton
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
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Hontelez JAC, de Vlas SJ, Tanser F, Bakker R, Bärnighausen T, Newell ML, Baltussen R, Lurie MN. The impact of the new WHO antiretroviral treatment guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and cost in South Africa. PLoS One 2011; 6:e21919. [PMID: 21799755 PMCID: PMC3140490 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0021919] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2011] [Accepted: 06/08/2011] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Since November 2009, WHO recommends that adults infected with HIV should initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) at CD4+ cell counts of ≤350 cells/µl rather than ≤200 cells/µl. South Africa decided to adopt this strategy for pregnant and TB co-infected patients only. We estimated the impact of fully adopting the new WHO guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and associated costs. Methods and Finding We used an established model of the transmission and control of HIV in specified sexual networks and healthcare settings. We quantified the model to represent Hlabisa subdistrict, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We predicted the HIV epidemic dynamics, number on ART and program costs under the new guidelines relative to treating patients at ≤200 cells/µl for the next 30 years. During the first five years, the new WHO treatment guidelines require about 7% extra annual investments, whereas 28% more patients receive treatment. Furthermore, there will be a more profound impact on HIV incidence, leading to relatively less annual costs after seven years. The resulting cumulative net costs reach a break-even point after on average 16 years. Conclusions Our study strengthens the WHO recommendation of starting ART at ≤350 cells/µl for all HIV-infected patients. Apart from the benefits associated with many life-years saved, a modest frontloading appears to lead to net savings within a limited time-horizon. This finding is robust to alternative assumptions and foreseeable changes in ART prices and effectiveness. Therefore, South Africa should aim at rapidly expanding its healthcare infrastructure to fully embrace the new WHO guidelines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
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Nagelkerke NJD, Hontelez JAC, de Vlas SJ. The potential impact of an HIV vaccine with limited protection on HIV incidence in Thailand: a modeling study. Vaccine 2011; 29:6079-85. [PMID: 21718745 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.06.048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2011] [Revised: 04/21/2011] [Accepted: 06/14/2011] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The RV144 trial on the ALVAC/AIDSVAX candidate HIV vaccine, carried out in Thailand, showed short-lived protection against infection. METHODS Using a deterministic compartmental model we explored the potential impact of this vaccine on heterosexual HIV transmission in Thailand. Both one-off vaccination strategies, as well as strategies with regular boosting, either annually or every two years, were explored. Both targeting the general adult population and prioritizing sex workers were modeled. The impact of risk compensation among high risk groups, as well as whether higher levels of safe sex in high risk groups could be an alternative to vaccination, was studied. RESULTS One-off vaccination campaigns had only transient effects, and boosting appears to be a key component of successful vaccination campaigns. Intensive vaccination campaigns may reduce HIV incidence by up to 75% after 10 years of vaccination. Targeting only sex workers has a smaller impact but has a more favorable cost-benefit ratio. Risk compensation has the potential of undoing much of the benefits of a vaccination program and may even increase incidence. In contrast, higher levels of safe sex among sex workers would provide a viable alternative to vaccinating this group. DISCUSSION The new vaccine holds promise for controlling HIV in Thailand and similar countries. In view of the short lived protection of the vaccine, regular boosting of immunity as well as avoidance of risk compensation are essential. Targeting sex workers would achieve the greatest reduction in incidence per vaccination and may be considered for expensive vaccines but its cost-effectiveness has to be compared to alternatives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nico J D Nagelkerke
- Department of Community Medicine, United Arab Emirates University, P.O. Box 17666, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates.
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Hontelez JAC, Nagelkerke N, Bärnighausen T, Bakker R, Tanser F, Newell ML, Lurie MN, Baltussen R, de Vlas SJ. The potential impact of RV144-like vaccines in rural South Africa: a study using the STDSIM microsimulation model. Vaccine 2011; 29:6100-6. [PMID: 21703321 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.06.059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2011] [Revised: 05/31/2011] [Accepted: 06/14/2011] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The only successful HIV vaccine trial to date is the RV144 trial of the ALVAC/AIDSVAX vaccine in Thailand, which showed an overall incidence reduction of 31%. Most cases were prevented in the first year, suggesting a rapidly waning efficacy. Here, we predict the population level impact and cost-effectiveness of practical implementation of such a vaccine in a setting of a generalised epidemic with high HIV prevalence and incidence. METHODS We used STDSIM, an established individual-based microsimulation model, tailored to a rural South African area with a well-functioning HIV treatment and care programme. We estimated the impact of a single round of mass vaccination for everybody aged 15-49, as well as 5-year and 2-year re-vaccination strategies for young adults (aged 15-29). We calculated proportion of new infections prevented, cost-effectiveness indicators, and budget impact estimates of combined ART and vaccination programmes. RESULTS A single round of mass vaccination with a RV144-like vaccine will have a limited impact, preventing only 9% or 5% of new infections after 10 years at 60% and 30% coverage levels, respectively. Revaccination strategies are highly cost-effective if vaccine prices can be kept below 150 US$/vaccine for 2-year revaccination strategies, and below 200 US$/vaccine for 5-year revaccination strategies. Net cost-savings through reduced need for HIV treatment and care occur when vaccine prices are kept below 75 US$/vaccine. These results are sensitive to alternative assumptions on the underlying sexual network, background prevention interventions, and individual's propensity and consistency to participate in the vaccination campaign. DISCUSSION A modestly effective vaccine can be a cost-effective intervention in highly endemic settings. To predict the impact of vaccination strategies in other endemic situations, sufficient knowledge of the underlying sexual network, prevention and treatment interventions, and individual propensity and consistency to participate, is key. These issues are all best addressed in an individual-based microsimulation model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan A C Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
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Hontelez JAC, Hahné S, Koedijk FHD, de Melker HE. Effectiveness and impact of hepatitis B virus vaccination of children with at least one parent born in a hepatitis B virus endemic country: an early assessment. J Epidemiol Community Health 2009; 64:890-4. [PMID: 19822551 DOI: 10.1136/jech.2009.092288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine the effectiveness and impact of the Dutch childhood hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination policy targeted at children with at least one parent born in a HBV endemic country. METHODS The Dutch vaccination registration database was used to determine vaccine coverage for HBV and DTP-IPV-Hib in the target population. HBV notifications were used to estimate the impact. The HBV incidence was determined in children aged 0-4 years and born after (2003-7) and before (1990-2002) the introduction of the HBV vaccination programme. RESULTS HBV vaccine coverage in the target population was 89.6% (96,186/107,338) in the period 2003-5. There were 37 notified acute infections in the pre-vaccination birth cohort 1990-2002 (incidence 2.9/10(6) person-years), compared with one in the post-vaccination birth cohort 2003-7 (incidence 0.3/10(6) person-years). The incidence rate ratio for the 2003-7 birth cohort compared with the 1990-2002 birth cohort was 0.12 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.87; p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS This paper shows that the incidence of HBV notifications in children born after the introduction of targeted childhood HBV vaccinations is lower compared with the incidence in children born before the start of this vaccination programme. Although this is consistent with a good HBV vaccine coverage, the interpretation is hampered by a change in case definition for notification in 1999. The results are of importance to policy makers in both The Netherlands and other countries that have a targeted HBV vaccination programme.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan A C Hontelez
- RIVM, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, PO Box 1, Bilthoven 3720 BA, The Netherlands
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