Leveraging satellite observations to reveal ecological drivers of pest densities across landscapes

Landscape ecologists have long suggested that pest abundances increase in simplified, monoculture landscapes. However, tests of this theory often fail to predict pest population sizes in real-world agricultural fields. These failures may arise not only from variation in pest ecology, but also from the widespread use of categorical land-use maps that do not adequately characterize habitat-availability for pests. We used 1163 field-year observations of Lygus hesperus (Western Tarnished Plant Bug) densities in California cotton fields to determine whether integrating remotely-sensed metrics of vegetation productivity and phenology into pest models could improve pest abundance analysis and prediction. Because L. hesperus often overwinters in non-crop vegetation, we predicted that pest abundances would peak on farms surrounded by more non-crop vegetation, especially when the non-crop vegetation is initially productive but then dries down early in the year, causing the pest to disperse into cotton fields. We found that the effect of non-crop habitat on pest densities varied across latitudes, with a positive relationship in the north and a negative one in the south. Aligning with our hypotheses, models predicted that L. hesperus densities were 35 times higher on farms surrounded by high versus low productivity non-crop vegetation (EVI area 350 vs. 50) and 2.8 times higher when dormancy occurred earlier versus later in the year (May 15 vs. June 30). Despite these strong and significant effects, we found that integrating these remote-sensing variables into land-use models only marginally improved pest density predictions in cotton compared to models with categorical land cover metrics alone. Together, our work suggests that the remote sensing variables analyzed here can advance our understanding of pest ecology, but not yet substantively increase the accuracy of pest abundance predictions.

A test of balanced fitness limitations theory: Pollen limitation in plants

When reproductive success is determined by the relative availabilities of a series of essential, non-substitutable resources, the theory of balanced fitness limitations predicts that the cost of harvesting a particular resource shapes the likelihood that a shortfall of that resource will constrain realized fitness. Plant reproduction through female function offers a special opportunity to test this theory; essential resources in this context include, first, the pollen received from pollinators or abiotic vectors that is used to fertilize ovules, and, second, the resources needed to provision the developing seeds and fruit. For many plants realized reproductive success through female function can be readily quantified in the field, and one key potential constraint on fitness, pollen limitation, can be assessed experimentally by manually supplementing pollen receipt. We assembled a comparative dataset of pollen limitation using only studies that supplement pollen to all flowers produced over the plant's reproductive lifespan. Pre- and post-pollination costs were estimated using the weight of flowers and fruits and estimates of fruit set. Consistent with expectations, we find self-incompatible plants make greater pre-pollination investments and experience greater pollen limitation. However, contrary to theoretical expectations, when variation due to self-compatibility is accounted for by including self-compatibility in the statistical model as a covariate, we find no support for the prediction that plants that invest more heavily in pre-pollination costs are subject to greater pollen limitation. Strong within-species, between-population variation in the expression of pollen limitation makes the quantification of mean pollen limitation difficult. We urge plant ecologists to conduct more studies of pollen limitation using whole-plant pollen supplementation to produce a richer comparative dataset that would support a more robust test of the balanced limitations hypothesis.

Plant size, latitude, and phylogeny explain within-population variability in herbivory

Interactions between plants and herbivores are central in most ecosystems, but their strength is highly variable. The amount of variability within a system is thought to influence most aspects of plant-herbivore biology, from ecological stability to plant defense evolution. Our understanding of what influences variability, however, is limited by sparse data. We collected standardized surveys of herbivory for 503 plant species at 790 sites across 116° of latitude. With these data, we show that within-population variability in herbivory increases with latitude, decreases with plant size, and is phylogenetically structured. Differences in the magnitude of variability are thus central to how plant-herbivore biology varies across macroscale gradients. We argue that increased focus on interaction variability will advance understanding of patterns of life on Earth.

Pathways to the density-dependent expression of cannibalism, and consequences for regulated population dynamics

Cannibalism, once viewed as a rare or aberrant behavior, is now recognized to be widespread and to contribute broadly to the self-regulation of many populations. Cannibalism can produce endogenous negative feedback on population growth because it is expressed as a conditional behavior, responding to the deteriorating ecological conditions that flow, directly or indirectly, from increasing densities of conspecifics. Thus, cannibalism emerges as a strongly density-dependent source of mortality. In this synthesis, we review recent research that has revealed a rich diversity of pathways through which rising density elicits increased cannibalism, including both factors that (a) elevate the rate of dangerous encounters between conspecifics and (b) enhance the likelihood that such encounters will lead to successful cannibalistic attacks. These pathways include both features of the autecology of cannibal populations and features of interactions with other species, including food resources and pathogens. Using mathematical models, we explore the consequences of including density-dependent cannibal attack rates on population dynamics. The conditional expression of cannibalism generally enhances stability and population regulation in single-species models but also may increase opportunities for alternative states and prey population escape from control by cannibalistic predators.

The causes and consequences of pest population variability in agricultural landscapes

Variability in population densities is key to the ecology of natural systems but also has great implications for agriculture. Farmers' decisions are heavily influenced by their risk aversion to pest outbreaks that result in major yield losses. However, the need for long-term pest population data across many farms has prevented researchers from exploring the drivers and implications of pest population variability (PV). Here, we demonstrate the critical importance of PV for sustainable farming by analyzing 13 years of pest densities across >1300 Spanish olive groves and vineyards. Variable populations were more likely to cause major yield losses, but also occasionally created temporal windows when densities fell below insecticide spray thresholds. Importantly, environmental factors regulating pest variability were very distinct from factors regulating mean density, suggesting variability needs to be uniquely managed. Finally, we found diversifying landscapes may be a win-win situation for conservation and farmers, as diversified landscapes promote less abundant and less variable pest populations. Therefore, we encourage agricultural stakeholders to increase the complexity of the landscapes surrounding their farms through conserving/restoring natural habitat and/or diversifying crops.

Herbivory by European Earwigs (Forficula auricularia; Dermaptera: Forficulidae) on Citrus Species Commonly Cultivated in California

Agricultural plant species differ in susceptibility to herbivores; therefore, identifying natural resistances or tolerances to pests can be leveraged to develop preventative, integrated pest management approaches. While many Citrus species are grown in California, most pest management guidelines are based upon research conducted on navel oranges [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck; Sapindales: Rutaceae]. A recent study has established European earwigs (Forficula auricularia L.; Dermaptera: Forficulidae) as herbivores of young navel orange fruit, causing damage ranging from small bite marks to large chewed holes. It is unknown whether earwigs damage fruit of other citrus species. We conducted field experiments in which we caged earwigs to branch terminals bearing young fruit to explore potential differences in susceptibility of Citrus species to European earwigs. Specifically, we tested whether three species, navel oranges, clementines (C. clementina hort. ex Tanaka), and true mandarins (C. reticulata Blanco) exhibit differences in: 1) feeding deterrence to earwigs; 2) suitability as food for earwigs; 3) preferential abscission of damaged fruit; and 4) healing of damaged fruit. Earwigs caused heavy damage on navel orange and clementine fruit, whereas heavy damage was rare on true mandarin fruit. There was little evidence of preferential abscission of damaged fruit or healing of seriously damaged fruit. Consequently, several heavily damaged navel orange and one clementine fruit were retained to harvest and developed large scars. Overall, we found that Citrus fruit vary in their susceptibility to earwigs, and pest management strategies for earwigs should be refined to consider their varying effects on different Citrus species.

A double-edged sword: parental care increases risk of offspring infection by a maternally vectored parasite

Parental care can protect offspring from predators but can also create opportunities for parents to vector parasites to their offspring. We hypothesized that the risk of infection by maternally vectored parasites would increase with the frequency of mother-offspring contact. Ammophila spp. wasps (Hymenoptera: Sphecidae) build nests in which they rear a single offspring. Ammophila species exhibit varied offspring provisioning behaviours: some species enter the nest once to provision a single, large caterpillar, whereas others enter the nest repeatedly to provision with many smaller caterpillars. We hypothesized that each nest visit increases the risk of offspring parasitism by Paraxenos lugubris (Strepsiptera: Xenidae), whose infectious stages ride on the mother wasp (phoresy) to reach the vulnerable Ammophila offspring. We quantified parasitism risk by external examination of museum-curated Ammophila specimens-the anterior portion of P. lugubris protrudes between the adult host's abdominal sclerites and reflects infection during the larval stage. As predicted, Ammophila species that receive larger numbers of provisions incur greater risks of parasitism, with nest provisioning behaviour explaining ca 90% of the interspecific variation in mean parasitism. These findings demonstrate that parental care can augment, rather than reduce, the risk of parasite transmission to offspring.

Characterizing Herbivory by European Earwigs (Dermaptera: Forficulidae) on Navel Orange Fruit with Comparison to Forktailed Bush Katydid (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) Herbivory

In establishing Integrated Pest Management (IPM) plans for understudied pests, it is crucial to understand the nature of their herbivory and resulting damage. European earwig (Forficula auricularia L.; Dermaptera: Forficulidae) densities are increasing in citrus orchards in Central California. Field observations suggest that earwigs feed on young, developing citrus fruit, but this hypothesis had not been examined with formal experimentation. Forktailed bush katydid nymphs (Scudderia furcata Brunner von Wattenwyl; Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) are well-known citrus herbivores that feed on young citrus fruit, and it is possible that earwig damage may be misdiagnosed as katydid damage. Here we report findings from two field experiments in navel oranges (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck; Sapindales: Rutaceae) that together tested: (1) whether earwigs damage young citrus fruit; (2) whether the amount of damage earwigs generate differs across developmental stage or sex of adult earwigs; (3) the window of time during which fruit are most sensitive to earwig damage; (4) whether damaged fruit are retained to harvest; and (5) the resulting damage morphology caused by earwigs relative to katydids. Earwigs, particularly nymphs, chewed deep holes in young citrus fruit from 0 to 3 wk after petal fall. Fruit damaged by earwigs were retained and exhibited scars at harvest. The morphology and distribution of scars on mature fruit only subtly differed between earwigs and katydids. This study establishes that earwigs can be direct pests in mature navel orange trees by generating scars on fruit and likely contribute to fruit quality downgrades.

Evaluating the Quality of Ecoinformatics Data Derived From Commercial Agriculture: A Repeatability Analysis of Pest Density Estimates

Each year, consultants and field scouts working in commercial agriculture undertake a massive, decentralized data collection effort as they monitor insect populations to make real-time pest management decisions. These data, if integrated into a database, offer rich opportunities for applying big data or ecoinformatics methods in agricultural entomology research. However, questions have been raised about whether or not the underlying quality of these data is sufficiently high to be a foundation for robust research. Here I suggest that repeatability analysis can be used to quantify the quality of data collected from commercial field scouting, without requiring any additional data gathering by researchers. In this context, repeatability quantifies the proportion of total variance across all insect density estimates that is explained by differences across populations and is thus a measure of the underlying reliability of observations. Repeatability was moderately high for cotton fields scouted commercially for total Lygus hesperus Knight densities (R = 0.631) and further improved by accounting for observer effects (R = 0.697). Repeatabilities appeared to be somewhat lower than those computed for a comparable, but much smaller, researcher-generated data set. In general, the much larger sizes of ecoinformatics data sets are likely to more than compensate for modest reductions in measurement precision. Tools for evaluating data quality are important for building confidence in the growing applications of ecoinformatics methods.

Control Failures Following Insecticide Applications in Commercial Agriculture: How Often Do They Occur? A Case Study of Lygus hesperus (Hemiptera: Miridae) Control in Cotton

Although surveys of pest populations documenting evolved insecticide resistance often suggest abundant potential for insecticide control failures, studies documenting the actual occurrence of such failures in commercial agriculture are rare. If farmers currently practice adaptive management, abandoning the use of insecticides once resistance emerges, actual control failures could be rare. Here I use data gathered by independent pest management consultants to describe a case study of the realized efficacy of commercial field applications of insecticides, examining the control of Lygus hesperus Knight on cotton. On average, insecticides reduced target pest populations to 19% of their preapplication densities. Short-term efficacy of insecticides was variable, but only one severe control failure was observed (1 of 50, 2%). The rarity of severe control failures observed in this study is in agreement with the few other studies conducted in commercial settings, but additional research is needed to assess the generality of this result. Although pesticides can cause longer-term problems, including target pest resurgences and secondary pest outbreaks, risk-averse attitudes among farmers coupled with relatively consistent short-term insecticide efficacy may be potent forces propelling farmers toward the use of insecticides.

Profile of Fork-Tailed Bush Katydid (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) Feeding on Fruit of Clementine Mandarins

Sweet oranges (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck Sapindales: Rutaceae) dominated commercial citrus production in California until recently when there has been a shift to mandarins, mostly Citrus reticulata (Blanco) mandarins and Citrus clementina (hort. ex Tanaka) clementines. Past analyses of commercial field scouting and harvest data indicated that fork-tailed bush katydids (Scudderia furcata Brunner von Wattenwyl), a major pest in oranges, are present in clementine groves, but that fruit scarring attributed to katydids is rare. Conversely, jagged or web-like scarring attributed to caterpillars was more prevalent than expected. We used two field experiments in four representative cultivars of clementines to test four explanatory hypotheses for this observation: 1) katydids do not feed on clementine fruit, 2) damaged clementine fruit recover, 3) damaged clementine fruit preferentially abscise, and 4) katydid scars on clementine fruit have a different, undocumented morphology, not recognized as katydid damage. We find support for the latter two hypotheses. Katydids fed readily on the clementine fruit of all cultivars tested, chewing irregular holes that developed into jagged or web-like scars of a range of shapes and often led to splitting and abscission of maturing fruit. The katydid scars often more closely resembled chewing caterpillar damage than the round katydid scars in oranges, suggesting that katydid damage is being misclassified in clementines. The resistance documented in some other mandarins was not observed. Katydids are clearly a frugivorous pest causing previously unrecognized scarring in clementines.

Bugs scaring bugs: enemy-risk effects in biological control systems

Enemy-risk effects, often referred to as non-consumptive effects (NCEs), are an important feature of predator-prey ecology, but their significance has had little impact on the conceptual underpinning or practice of biological control. We provide an overview of enemy-risk effects in predator-prey interactions, discuss ways in which risk effects may impact biocontrol programs and suggest avenues for further integration of natural enemy ecology and integrated pest management. Enemy-risk effects can have important influences on different stages of biological control programs, including natural enemy selection, efficacy testing and quantification of non-target impacts. Enemy-risk effects can also shape the interactions of biological control with other pest management practices. Biocontrol systems also provide community ecologists with some of the richest examples of behaviourally mediated trophic cascades and demonstrations of how enemy-risk effects play out among species with no shared evolutionary history, important topics for invasion biology and conservation. We conclude that the longstanding use of ecological theory by biocontrol practitioners should be expanded to incorporate enemy-risk effects, and that community ecologists will find many opportunities to study enemy-risk effects in biocontrol settings.

Arthropod Infestation Levels on Mandarins in California

Integrated pest management (IPM) guidelines for horticulture are typically established from years of experimental research and experience for a crop species. Ecoinformatics methods can help to quickly adapt these guidelines following major changes in growing practices. Citrus production in California is facing several major challenges, one of which is a shift away from sweet oranges [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck Sapindales: Rutaceae] toward mandarins (including mostly cultivars of C. reticulata Blanco and C. clementina hort. ex Tanaka). In the absence of IPM guidelines for mandarins, growers are relying on pest information developed from oranges. We mined a database of management records from commercial growers and consultants to determine densities for four arthropod pests: cottony cushion scale (Icerya purchasi Maskell Hemiptera: Monophlebidae), citricola scale (Coccus pseudomagnoliarum Kuwana Hemiptera: Coccidae), European earwig (Forficula auricularia Linnaeus Dermaptera: Forficulidae), citrus red mite (Panonychus citri McGregor Acari: Tetranychidae), and a natural enemy, predatory mites in the genus Euseius (Congdon Acarina: Phytoseiidae). Densities of cottony cushion scale were approximately 10-40 times higher in the two most commonly grown mandarin species than in sweet oranges, suggesting this pest is reaching outbreak levels more often on mandarins. Densities of the other pests and predatory mites did not differ significantly across citrus species. This is a first step toward establishing IPM guidelines for mandarins for these pests; more research is needed to determine how arthropod densities relate to crop performance in mandarins.

Landscape simplification increases vineyard pest outbreaks and insecticide use

Diversifying agricultural landscapes may mitigate biodiversity declines and improve pest management. Yet landscapes are rarely managed to suppress pests, in part because researchers seldom measure key variables related to pest outbreaks and insecticides that drive management decisions. We used a 13-year government database to analyse landscape effects on European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) outbreaks and insecticides across c. 400 Spanish vineyards. At harvest, we found pest outbreaks increased four-fold in simplified, vineyard-dominated landscapes compared to complex landscapes in which vineyards are surrounded by semi-natural habitats. Similarly, insecticide applications doubled in vineyard-dominated landscapes but declined in vineyards surrounded by shrubland. Importantly, pest population stochasticity would have masked these large effects if numbers of study sites and years were reduced to typical levels in landscape pest-control studies. Our results suggest increasing landscape complexity may mitigate pest populations and insecticide applications. Habitat conservation represents an economically and environmentally sound approach for achieving sustainable grape production.

Variation in pesticide use across crops in California agriculture: Economic and ecological drivers

Pesticide use is a key component of efficient crop production, but is associated with a suite of costs. Understanding the main drivers of pesticide use will help us target research to develop effective alternatives. Although economic models predict, and empirical tests confirm, that the value of the crop being protected is an important determinant of between-crop variation in pesticide use, previous tests of this prediction have examined only modest numbers of crops and have not assessed the relative importance of crop value versus ecological determinants of pesticide use. Here we analyze variation in pesticide use across 93 crops grown in California, USA. We examine the joint roles of crop value and ecological determinants of pesticide use, including (i) the number of pest species associated with each crop; (ii) the distinction between annual vs. perennial crops; and (iii) the distinction between unprocessed vs. processed crops. As predicted, crop value was the dominant driver of the use of pesticides directed at arthropods and at plant pathogens, explaining 52.7% and 54.6% of total deviance, respectively. Ecological determinants of pesticide use were, however, also detected. Pesticide use was greater on crops that hosted a larger number of arthropod pest species (r = 0.32) or plant pathogen species (r = 0.29); for these pest groups, we saw no differences in pesticide use between annual vs. perennial crops, or processed vs. unprocessed crops. Perhaps surprisingly, crop value failed to explain the substantial between-crop variation in use of pesticides targeting weeds (1.7% of deviance explained, n.s.). Instead, an ecological factor, whether the crop was an annual versus a perennial plant, was the most important predictor of pesticide use against weeds, with more frequent applications on perennial crops. We conclude that both economic and ecological drivers influence the magnitude of potential crop losses, thereby shaping farmer pest control practices.

Differential Impacts of Citrus Thrips Across Sweet Orange and Mandarin Species

Several domesticated Citrus species are grown as major commercial crops in California. Despite this, farmers currently use a single set of management practices, originally created for sweet oranges (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck [Sapindales: Rutaceae]), for both sweet oranges and all mandarin species. Mandarins, primarily Citrus reticulata Blanco, Citrus clementina hort. ex Tanaka, and Citrus unshiu Marcovitch, comprise almost 25% of California citrus acreage, and little work has been done to assess host-pest interactions for these species. Citrus thrips (Scirtothripscitri Moulton [Thysanoptera: Thripidae]) are one of the main pests in California citrus and are major targets for early spring, "petal fall" insecticide applications. We used mixed species citrus blocks to test the influence of Citrus species, including C. sinensis, C. reticulata, C. clementina, and C. unshiu, on 1) citrus thrips densities following petal fall; 2) citrus thrips-induced scarring on both the calyx and stylar ends of fruit; and 3) fruit deformation. Citrus sinensis and C. unshiu had relatively high citrus thrips densities and scarring levels, whereas C. reticulata had lower densities of citrus thrips and scarring levels. The age structure of citrus thrips populations also varied across Citrus species. Fruit deformity associated with citrus thrips scarring was found on all Citrus species examined. Scarring on the stylar-end of fruit, a previously largely ignored location of citrus thrips scarring, was found to be common in C. reticulata. It is clear from our work that species-specific management guidelines for citrus thrips are needed in sweet oranges and mandarins.

Resistance of Fruits From a Mandarin Cultivar to Feeding by Fork-Tailed Bush Katydids

Plants use a variety of mechanisms to defend against herbivore damage, each with different consequences for agricultural production. Crops relying on tolerance strategies may need different pest management approaches versus those relying on resistance strategies. Previous work suggested that densities of fork-tailed bush katydids (Scudderia furcata Brunner von Wattenwyl [Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae]) that generated substantial scarring on cultivars of sweet oranges (Citrus sinensis, (L.) Osbeck [Sapindales: Rutaceae]) produced only low levels of scarring on cultivars of Citrus reticulata Blanco mandarins. We used field experiments in representative cultivars of these species to test non-mutually exclusive hypotheses regarding the mechanisms underlying this observation: 1) katydids are averse to feeding on mandarin fruits, 2) damaged mandarin fruits preferentially abscise, 3) damaged mandarin fruit tissue recovers during development, and 4) katydid scars on mandarins have a different morphology that may result in misclassification. We found strong support for the first hypothesis, demonstrating that katydids reject opportunities to feed on C. reticulata fruit. Instead of chewing deep holes in the fruit, as was commonly observed for C. sinensis, the katydids only scratched the surface of the C. reticulata fruits. The hypotheses of preferential abscission of damaged fruits and of recovery of damaged tissue were not supported. The low incidence of damage to the mandarins prevented a comprehensive assessment of the scar morphology; however, at harvest, the superficial cuts in C. reticulata were not easily distinguishable from background damage. This indicates that in contrast to C. sinensis, C. reticulata has substantial natural resistance to fork-tailed bush katydids making them a non-pest in this crop.

A global synthesis reveals biodiversity-mediated benefits for crop production

Human land use threatens global biodiversity and compromises multiple ecosystem functions critical to food production. Whether crop yield-related ecosystem services can be maintained by a few dominant species or rely on high richness remains unclear. Using a global database from 89 studies (with 1475 locations), we partition the relative importance of species richness, abundance, and dominance for pollination; biological pest control; and final yields in the context of ongoing land-use change. Pollinator and enemy richness directly supported ecosystem services in addition to and independent of abundance and dominance. Up to 50% of the negative effects of landscape simplification on ecosystem services was due to richness losses of service-providing organisms, with negative consequences for crop yields. Maintaining the biodiversity of ecosystem service providers is therefore vital to sustain the flow of key agroecosystem benefits to society.

Impacts of Fruit-Feeding Arthropod Pests on Oranges and Mandarins in California

One of the major challenges facing citrus integrated pest management (IPM) in California is the recent, sharp increase in the acreage of mandarins being planted. The current citrus IPM guidelines have been established from years of experiments and experience in oranges, with no specific guidelines for mandarins. In the absence of research into key arthropod pest effects in mandarins, the assumption that the pest management practices for oranges appropriately transfer for optimal production in mandarins has not been tested. We used a data mining or 'ecoinformatics' approach in which we compiled and analyzed production records collected by growers and pest control advisors to gain an overview of direct pest densities and their relationships with fruit damage for 202 commercial groves, each surveyed for 1-10 yr in the main production region of California. Pest densities were different among four commonly grown species of citrus marketed as mandarins (Citrus reticulata, C. clementina, C. unshiu, and C. tangelo) compared with the standard Citrus sinensis sweet oranges, for fork-tailed bush katydids (Scudderia furcata Brunner von Wattenwyl [Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae]), and citrus thrips (Scirtothrips citri Moulton [Thysanoptera: Thripidae]). Citrus reticulata had notably low levels of fruit damage, suggesting they have natural resistance to direct pests, especially fork-tailed bush katydids. These results suggest that mandarin-specific research and recommendations would improve citrus IPM. More broadly, this is an example of how an ecoinformatics approach can serve as a complement to traditional experimental methods to raise new and unexpected hypotheses that expand our understanding of agricultural systems.

Disease, contagious cannibalism, and associated population crash in an omnivorous bug, Geocoris pallens

Disease and cannibalism are two strongly density-dependent processes that can suppress predator populations. Here we show that California populations of the omnivorous predatory bug Geocoris pallens are subject to infection by a pathogen, as yet unidentified, that elicits elevated expression of cannibalism. Laboratory experiments showed that the pathogen is moderately virulent, causing flattened abdomens, elevated nymphal mortality, delayed development, and reduced body size of adult females. Infection furthermore increases the expression of cannibalism. Field populations of Geocoris spp. declined strongly in association with sharp increases in the expression of egg cannibalism by adult G. pallens. Increased cannibalism was accompanied by a strongly bimodal distribution of cannibalism expression, with some females (putatively uninfected) expressing little cannibalism and others (putatively infected) consuming most or all of the eggs present. Highly cannibalistic females did not increase their consumption of Ephestia cautella moth eggs, suggesting that the high cannibalism phenotype reflected a specific loss of restraint against eating conspecifics. Highly cannibalistic females also often exhibited reduced egg laying, consistent with a virulent pathogen; less frequently, more cannibalistic females exhibited elevated egg laying, suggesting that cannibalism might also facilitate recycling of nutrients in eggs. Elevated cannibalism was not correlated with reduced prey availability or elevated field densities of G. pallens. Geocoris pallens population crashes appear to reflect the combined consequences of direct virulence-adverse pathogen effects on the infected host's physiology-and indirect virulence-mortality of both infected and uninfected individuals due to elevated cannibalism expression by infected individuals.

The epidemiology and evolution of parasite transmission through cannibalism

Cannibalism is a widespread behavior, and evidence is abundant for transmission from infected victims to susceptible cannibals in many parasite-host systems. Current theory suggests that cannibalism generally impedes disease spread, because each victim is usually consumed by a single cannibal. Thus, cannibalism merely transfers pathogens from one individual to another without spreading infections to additional hosts. This assumes that cannibalism is the only mode of transmission and that the host population is homogenous. However, host developmental stages are a key determinant of both cannibal-victim and host-pathogen interactions. We suggest that multiple modes of pathogen transmission can interact through host stage structure. We show theoretically that cannibalism can enhance disease spread by consistently transferring infections from low quality to high quality hosts that are more infectious via horizontal transmission. We review empirical evidence for the generality of key conditions required for this process, and analyze the implications for the evolution of transmission through cannibalism. More generally, our theory promotes the consideration of multiple transmission pathways when studying parasite-host systems, and advances a useful intuition for assessing whether or not such pathways may be mutually augmentative.

Cannibalism amplifies the spread of vertically transmitted pathogens

Cannibalism is a widespread behavior. Abundant empirical evidence demonstrates that cannibals incur a risk of contracting pathogenic infections when they consume infected conspecifics. However, current theory suggests that cannibalism generally impedes disease spread, because each victim is usually consumed by a single cannibal, such that cannibalism does not function as a spreading process. Consequently, cannibalism cannot be the only mode of transmission of most parasites. We develop simple, but general epidemiological models to analyze the interaction of cannibalism and vertical transmission. We show that cannibalism increases the prevalence of vertically transmitted pathogens whenever the host population density is not solely regulated by cannibalism. This mechanism, combined with additional, recently published, theoretical mechanisms, presents a strong case for the role of cannibalism in the spread of infectious diseases across a wide range of parasite-host systems.

Optimal design for dynamical modeling of pest populations

We apply SE-optimal design methodology to investigate optimal data collection procedures as a first step in investigating information content in ecoinformatics data sets. To illustrate ideas we use a simple phenomenological citrus red mite population model for pest dynamics. First the optimal sampling distributions for a varying number of data points are determined. We then analyze these optimal distributions by comparing the standard errors of parameter estimates corresponding to each distribution. This allows us to investigate how many data are required to have confidence in model parameter estimates in order to employ dynamical modeling to infer population dynamics. Our results suggest that a field researcher should collect at least 12 data points at the optimal times. Data collected according to this procedure along with dynamical modeling will allow us to estimate population dynamics from presence/absence-based data sets through the development of a scaling relationship. These Likert-type data sets are commonly collected by agricultural pest management consultants and are increasingly being used in ecoinformatics studies. By applying mathematical modeling with the relationship scale from the new data, we can then explore important integrated pest management questions using past and future presence/absence data sets.

Short- and long-term evolution in our arms race with cancer: Why the war on cancer is winnable

Human society is engaged in an arms race against cancer, which pits one evolutionary process-human cultural evolution as we develop novel cancer therapies-against another evolutionary process-the ability of oncogenic selection operating among cancer cells to select for lineages that are resistant to our therapies. Cancer cells have a powerful ability to evolve resistance over the short term, leading to patient relapse following an initial period of apparent treatment efficacy. However, we are the beneficiaries of a fundamental asymmetry in our arms race against cancer: Whereas our cultural evolution is a long-term and continuous process, resistance evolution in cancer cells operates only over the short term and is discontinuous - all resistance adaptations are lost each time a cancer patient dies. Thus, our cultural adaptations are permanent, whereas cancer's genetic adaptations are ephemeral. Consequently, over the long term, there is good reason to expect that we will emerge as the winners in our war against cancer.

An Ecoinformatics Approach to Field-Scale Evaluation of Insecticide Effects in California Citrus: Are Citrus Thrips and Citrus Red Mite Induced Pests?

Experimental approaches to studying the consequences of pesticide use, including impacts on beneficial insects, are vital; however, they can be limited in scale and realism. We show that an ecoinformatics approach that leverages existing data on pesticides, pests, and beneficials across multiple fields can provide complementary insights. We do this using a multi-year dataset (2002-2013) on pesticide applications and density estimates of two pests, citrus thrips (Scirtothrips citri (Moulton [Thysanoptera: Thripidae])) and citrus red mites (Panonychus citri McGregor [Acari: Tetranychidae]), and a natural enemy (Euseius spp. predatory mites) collected from citrus groves in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Using correlative analyses, we investigated the long-term consequences of pesticide use on S. citri and P. citri population densities to evaluate the hypothesis that the pest status of these species is largely due to the disruption of natural biological control-i.e., these are induced pests. We also evaluated short-term pesticide efficacy (suppression of citrus thrips and citrus red mite populations immediately post-application) and asked if it was correlated with the suppression of Euseius predator populations. Although the short-term efficacy of different pesticides varied significantly, our dataset does not suggest that the use of citrus pesticides suppressed Euseius densities or worsened pest problems. We also find that there is no general trade-off between pesticide efficacy and pesticide risk to Eusieus, such that highly effective and minimally disruptive compounds were available to citrus growers during the studied time period.

Does a plant-eating insect's diet govern the evolution of insecticide resistance? Comparative tests of the pre-adaptation hypothesis

According to the pre‐adaptation hypothesis, the evolution of insecticide resistance in plant‐eating insects co‐opts adaptations that initially evolved during chemical warfare with their host plants. Here, we used comparative statistics to test two predictions of this hypothesis: (i) Insects with more diverse diets should evolve resistance to more diverse insecticides. (ii) Feeding on host plants with strong or diverse qualitative chemical defenses should prime an insect lineage to evolve insecticide resistance. Both predictions are supported by our tests. What makes this especially noteworthy is that differences in the diets of plant‐eating insect species are typically ignored by the population genetic models we use to make predictions about insecticide resistance evolution. Those models surely capture some of the differences between host‐use generalists and specialists, for example, differences in population size and migration rates into treated fields, but they miss other potentially important differences, for example, differences in metabolic diversity and gene expression plasticity. Ignoring these differences could be costly.

Ecoinformatics Can Infer Causal Effects of Crop Variety on Insect Attack by Capitalizing on 'Pseudoexperiments' Created When Different Crop Varieties Are Interspersed: A Case Study in Almonds

Capturing the complementary strengths of observational and experimental research methods usually requires the researcher to gather separate experimental and observational data sets. In some cases, however, commercial agricultural practices produce the spatial and temporal mixing of 'treatments' independently of other possibly covarying factors that is normally achieved only with formal experimentation. The resulting 'pseudoexperiments' can provide strong evidence for causal relationships. Here, we analyze a large observational data set that creates a series of such pseudoexperiments to assess the effect of different commercial varieties of almond, Prunus dulcis (Mill.) on the impact of two key lepidopteran pests, the navel orangeworm Amyelois transitella (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), and the peach twig borer Anarsia lineatella Zeller (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae). Almonds are universally planted as polycultures of different varieties to obtain efficient cross-pollination. We find substantial differences across almond varieties in the rates of infestation of almond hulls and nutmeats by the two pests. We find no support for the hypothesis that earlier-maturing varieties sustain higher attack; for A. transitella, later-maturing varieties instead had more frequent infestation. On many almond varieties, A. lineatella reaches high infestation levels by feeding almost exclusively on the hulls, rather than nutmeats. Given the importance of these pests in directly destroying almond nuts and in promoting aflatoxin-producing Aspergillus sp. fungal infections of almonds, further work exploring the impact of these pests is warranted. Because many crops requiring cross-pollination are planted as mixtures of different varieties, commercial agricultural production data hold great potential for studying within-crop variation in susceptibility to insect attack.

Predicting Nut Damage at Harvest Using Different in-Season Density Estimates of Amyelois Transitella: Analysis of Data from Commercial Almond Production

Despite decades of research on management tactics for the navel orangeworm, Amyelois transitella (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), on almonds, we still do not have an established means of using in-season pest-density estimates to predict damage to nuts at harvest. As a result, hull-split pesticide applications, although timed carefully to coincide with navel orangeworm oviposition and with crop vulnerability, are not tied to pest densities-thus falling short of our goals under modern pest management. Here we use an ecoinformatics approach, analyzing a pre-existing data set collected in commercial almond production in California, to ask: 1) are navel orangeworm density estimates obtained using different sampling methods in strong agreement with one another? and 2) can we use either single density estimates or combinations of density estimates to explain variation in nutmeat damage at harvest? We find that correlations between density estimates of navel orangeworm made over a single growing season are often weak, and suggest that density estimates taken closer to the time of harvest (catches of adult females between hull split and harvest; infestation of early-split nuts) may be most useful for predicting damage at harvest. Single-density estimates explained ≤39.1% of variation in harvest damage, whereas a combination of predictors explained 51.5% of the total variance in nutmeat damage at harvest. Our results suggest that density estimates taken just prior to harvest may, with refinement, be usable within a predictive framework to guide late-season control decisions.

Factors shaping life history traits of two proovigenic parasitoids

What shapes the relative investment in reproduction versus survival of organisms is among the key questions in life history. Proovigenic insects mature all their eggs prior to emergence and are short lived, providing a unique opportunity to quantify their lifetime investments in the different functions. We investigated the initial eggloads and longevity of 2 proovigenic parasitoid wasps: Anagrus erythroneurae and Anagrus daanei, (Hymenoptera: Mymaridae) that develop within leafhopper eggs in both agricultural vineyards and natural riparian habitats in Northern California. We collected Vitis spp. leaves containing developing parasitoids from 3 natural sites (Knight Landing, American River and Putah Creek) and 3 agricultural vineyards (Solano Farm, Davis Campus and Village Homes). We recorded eggloads at parasitoid emergence and female parasitoid longevity with or without honey-feeding. Theory predicts that parasitoids from vineyards (where hosts are abundant) would have higher initial eggloads and lower longevity compared with parasitoids from riparian habitats (where hosts are scarce). Although host density and parasitoid eggloads were, indeed, higher in vineyards than in riparian habitats, parasitoid longevity did not follow the predicted pattern. Longevity without feeding differed among field sites, but it was not affected by habitat type (natural vs agricultural), whereas longevity with feeding was not significantly affected by any of the examined factors. Moreover, longevity was positively, rather than negatively, correlated with eggloads at the individual level, even after correcting for parasitoid body size. The combined results suggest a more complex allocation mechanism than initially predicted, and the possibility of variation in host quality that is independent of size.

A global synthesis of the effects of diversified farming systems on arthropod diversity within fields and across agricultural landscapes

Agricultural intensification is a leading cause of global biodiversity loss, which can reduce the provisioning of ecosystem services in managed ecosystems. Organic farming and plant diversification are farm management schemes that may mitigate potential ecological harm by increasing species richness and boosting related ecosystem services to agroecosystems. What remains unclear is the extent to which farm management schemes affect biodiversity components other than species richness, and whether impacts differ across spatial scales and landscape contexts. Using a global metadataset, we quantified the effects of organic farming and plant diversification on abundance, local diversity (communities within fields), and regional diversity (communities across fields) of arthropod pollinators, predators, herbivores, and detritivores. Both organic farming and higher in-field plant diversity enhanced arthropod abundance, particularly for rare taxa. This resulted in increased richness but decreased evenness. While these responses were stronger at local relative to regional scales, richness and abundance increased at both scales, and richness on farms embedded in complex relative to simple landscapes. Overall, both organic farming and in-field plant diversification exerted the strongest effects on pollinators and predators, suggesting these management schemes can facilitate ecosystem service providers without augmenting herbivore (pest) populations. Our results suggest that organic farming and plant diversification promote diverse arthropod metacommunities that may provide temporal and spatial stability of ecosystem service provisioning. Conserving diverse plant and arthropod communities in farming systems therefore requires sustainable practices that operate both within fields and across landscapes.

Ecoinformatics (Big Data) for Agricultural Entomology: Pitfalls, Progress, and Promise

Ecoinformatics, as defined in this review, is the use of preexisting data sets to address questions in ecology. We provide the first review of ecoinformatics methods in agricultural entomology. Ecoinformatics methods have been used to address the full range of questions studied by agricultural entomologists, enabled by the special opportunities associated with data sets, nearly all of which have been observational, that are larger and more diverse and that embrace larger spatial and temporal scales than most experimental studies do. We argue that ecoinformatics research methods and traditional, experimental research methods have strengths and weaknesses that are largely complementary. We address the important interpretational challenges associated with observational data sets, highlight common pitfalls, and propose some best practices for researchers using these methods. Ecoinformatics methods hold great promise as a vehicle for capitalizing on the explosion of data emanating from farmers, researchers, and the public, as novel sampling and sensing techniques are developed and digital data sharing becomes more widespread.

Landscape crop composition effects on cotton yield, Lygus hesperus densities and pesticide use

BACKGROUND

Landscape crop composition surrounding agricultural fields is known to affect the density of crop pests, but quantifying these effects, as well as measuring how they translate to changes in yield, is difficult. Using a large dataset consisting of 1498 records of commercial cotton production in California between 1997 and 2008, we explored the relationship between landscape composition and cotton yield, the density of Lygus hesperus (a key cotton pest) at field-level and within-field spatial scales and pesticide use.

RESULTS

We found that the crop composition immediately adjacent to a cotton field was associated with substantial differences in cotton yield, L. hesperus density and pesticide use. Furthermore, crops that tended to be associated with increased L. hesperus density also tended to be associated with increased pesticide use and decreased cotton yield.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest a possible mechanism by which landscape composition can affect cotton yield: by increasing the density of pests which in turn damage cotton plants. Our quantification of how surrounding crops affect pest densities, and in turn yield, in cotton fields has significant impacts for cotton farmers, who can use this information to help optimize crop selection and ranch layout. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Does an 'oversupply' of ovules cause pollen limitation?

Lifetime seed production can be constrained by shortfalls of pollen receipt ('pollen limitation'). The ovule oversupply hypothesis states that, in response to unpredictable pollen availability, plants evolve to produce more ovules than they expect to be fertilized, and that this results in pollen limitation of seed production. Here, we present a cartoon model and a model of optimal plant reproductive allocations under stochastic pollen receipt to evaluate the hypothesis that an oversupply of ovules leads to increased pollen limitation. We show that an oversupply of ovules has two opposing influences on pollen limitation of whole-plant seed production. First, ovule oversupply increases the likelihood that pollen receipt limits the number of ovules that can be fertilized ('prezygotic pollen limitation'). Second, ovule oversupply increases the proportion of pollen grains received that are used to fertilize ovules ('pollen use efficiency'). As a result of these opposing influences, ovule oversupply has only a modest effect on the degree to which lifetime seed production is constrained by pollen receipt, producing a small decrease in the incidence of pollen limitation. Ovule oversupply is not the cause of the pollen limitation problem, but rather is part of the evolutionary solution to that problem.

Modest Pollen Limitation of Lifetime Seed Production Is in Good Agreement with Modest Uncertainty in Whole-Plant Pollen Receipt

We recently introduced a model that predicts the degree to which a plant's lifetime seed production may be constrained by unpredictable shortfalls of pollen receipt ("pollen limitation"). Burd's comment in this issue criticized our analysis, first by arguing that the empirical literature documents much higher levels of pollen limitation than our model predicts and then suggesting that the apparent discrepancy stemmed from our (1) underestimating the costs of securing a fertilized ovule and (2) assuming too little unpredictability in whole-plant pollen receipt. We reply as follows. First, the empirical literature must be consulted carefully. Burd relies on pollen supplementation experiments performed on parts of plants or on whole plants but during only one reproductive season for polycarpic perennials; in both cases, resource reallocation often leads to gross overestimates of pollen limitation. We comprehensively review pollen limitation estimates that are free of these estimation problems and find strong agreement with our model predictions. Second, although cost estimates for different components of seed production are imprecise, errors are likely to be small relative to the >1,000-fold differences observed across plant species, the primary focus of our article. Finally, contrary to Burd's argument, pollen receipt by entire plants is much more predictable than that by individual flowers because the flower-to-flower variation "averages out" when summed across many flowers. Our model uses parameter values that are in broad agreement with the empirical record of modest plant-to-plant variation in pollen receipt and thus predicts the generally modest pollen limitation that is observed in nature.

Absence of Transgenerational Phenotypic Plasticity in Fecundity in the Parasitoid Anagrus erythroneurae (Hymenoptera: Mymaridae)

To improve biological pest control, we would like to understand the main factors that limit the reproductive success of key biological control agents, including parasitoid wasps. Previous research with proovigenic parasitoids in the genus Anagrus collected from multiple field sites revealed positive correlations between parasitoid fecundity and local host density. In this article, we test whether this variation in fecundity is a reflection of transgenerational phenotypic plasticity. We exposed females in laboratory microcosms to either low or high host densities and then quantified the fecundity of their adult daughters. Mean fecundity of daughters did not differ across host density treatments, arguing against the operation of phenotypic plasticity. Significant variation in mean fecundity across different families instead suggested the possibility that genetic variation may underlie the observed fecundity differences.

Model Comparison Tests to Determine Data Information Content

In the context of inverse or parameter estimation problems we demonstrate the use of statistically based model comparison tests in several examples of practical interest. In these examples we are interested in questions related to information content of a particular given data set and whether the data will support a more complicated model to describe it. In the first example we compare fits for several different models to describe simple decay in a size histogram for aggregates in amyloid fibril formation. In a second example we investigate whether the information content in data sets for the pest Lygus hesperus in cotton fields as it is currently collected is sufficient to support a model in which one distinguishes between nymphs and adults. Finally in a third example with data for patients having undergone an organ transplant, we question whether the data content is sufficient to estimate more than 5 of the fundamental parameters in a particular dynamic model.

Ecoinformatics reveals effects of crop rotational histories on cotton yield

Crop rotation has been practiced for centuries in an effort to improve agricultural yield. However, the directions, magnitudes, and mechanisms of the yield effects of various crop rotations remain poorly understood in many systems. In order to better understand how crop rotation influences cotton yield, we used hierarchical Bayesian models to analyze a large ecoinformatics database consisting of records of commercial cotton crops grown in California's San Joaquin Valley. We identified several crops that, when grown in a field the year before a cotton crop, were associated with increased or decreased cotton yield. Furthermore, there was a negative association between the effect of the prior year's crop on June densities of the pest Lygus hesperus and the effect of the prior year's crop on cotton yield. This suggested that some crops may enhance L. hesperus densities in the surrounding agricultural landscape, because residual L. hesperus populations from the previous year cannot continuously inhabit a focal field and attack a subsequent cotton crop. In addition, we found that cotton yield declined approximately 2.4% for each additional year in which cotton was grown consecutively in a field prior to the focal cotton crop. Because L. hesperus is quite mobile, the effects of crop rotation on L. hesperus would likely not be revealed by small plot experimentation. These results provide an example of how ecoinformatics datasets, which capture the true spatial scale of commercial agriculture, can be used to enhance agricultural productivity.

The effect of Wolbachia on the lifetime reproductive success of its insect host in the field

Wolbachia is a widespread endosymbiont that induces dramatic manipulations of its host's reproduction. Although there has been substantial progress in the developing theory for Wolbachia-host interactions and in measuring the effects of Wolbachia on host fitness in the laboratory, there is a widely recognized need to quantify the effects of Wolbachia on the host fitness in the field. The wasp Anagrus sophiae, an egg parasitoid of planthoppers, carries a Wolbachia strain that induces parthenogenesis, but its effects on the fitness of its Anagrus host are unknown. We developed a method to estimate the realized lifetime reproductive success of female wasps by collecting them soon after they die naturally in the field, counting the number of eggs remaining in their ovaries and quantifying Wolbachia density in their body. We sampled from a highly infected A. sophiae population and found no evidence for Wolbachia virulence and possible evidence for positive effects of Wolbachia on realized reproductive success.

Costs of Lygus herbivory on cotton associated with farmer decision-making: an ecoinformatics approach

Because the farmer is typically excluded from the experimental research setting, experimental research may face challenges in evaluating pest management tactics whose costs and benefits hinge on farmer decision-making. In these cases an ecoinformatics approach, in which observational data collected from the commercial farming setting are "mined" to quantify both biological variables and farmer behavior, can complement experimentation as a useful research tool. Here I analyze such an observational data set to characterize associations between early- (June) and mid-season (July) Lygus hesperus Knight populations and farmer decisions to apply plant growth regulators and defoliants. Previous experimental work suggested the hypothesis that Lygus herbivory, by inducing abscission of young flower buds, might generate increased use of plant growth regulators and defoliants. Cotton's ability to compensate for loss of flower buds may, however, increase as plants grow. On upland cotton, June Lygus populations were associated with increased use of plant growth regulators, as expected, but this relationship was not observed for July Lygus populations. June Lygus populations were not associated with the use of defoliants, whereas, surprisingly, July Lygus populations were associated with decreases in defoliant use. In contrast to these positive and negative associations observed on upland cotton, on Pima cotton Lygus populations exhibited no associations with use of either plant growth regulators or defoliants. These results suggest that cotton responses to Lygus herbivory, as demonstrated in previously published experimental studies, can translate into economically meaningful changes in farmer decisions to apply agricultural chemicals.