Innovative approaches in soil carbon sequestration modelling for better prediction with limited data

Soil carbon accounting and prediction play a key role in building decision support systems for land managers selling carbon credits, in the spirit of the Paris and Kyoto protocol agreements. Land managers typically rely on computationally complex models fit using sparse datasets to make these accounts and predictions. The model complexity and sparsity of the data can lead to over-fitting, leading to inaccurate results when making predictions with new data. Modellers address over-fitting by simplifying their models and reducing the number of parameters, and in the current context this could involve neglecting some soil organic carbon (SOC) components. In this study, we introduce two novel SOC models and a new RothC-like model and investigate how the SOC components and complexity of the SOC models affect the SOC prediction in the presence of small and sparse time series data. We develop model selection methods that can identify the soil carbon model with the best predictive performance, in light of the available data. Through this analysis we reveal that commonly used complex soil carbon models can over-fit in the presence of sparse time series data, and our simpler models can produce more accurate predictions.

Sorption behaviour of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) as affected by the properties of coastal estuarine sediments

The sorption of three perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), namely perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS), was determined in 19 coastal sediments. There are currently limited data on the sorption behaviour of these chemicals in marine or estuarine sediments and the properties controlling their sorption have not been well established. The median average PFOS K_d value (30.4 L/kg) was >8 times that for PFOA (3.3 L/kg) and PFHxS (2.8 L/kg). Highly significant (P < .001) linear relationships were found between values for sorption coefficients (K_d) for all three chemicals (PFOS, PFOA and PFHxS) to the estuarine sediments and organic carbon (OC) content with r² values ranging from 0.87 to 0.91. The nature of the constituents of OC was determined by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for a subset (10) of the sediments to assess whether the strong relationship between sorption and OC was due solely to an increasing amount of OC or to particular OC fractions. The NMR analysis could not provide strong evidence for one OC fraction type explaining the variation in sorption of the three PFASs. Further investigation using partial least squares of the whole spectra also did not show any particular OC components could explain the K_d variation. This data suggests that variation in sorption in these sediments was primarily due to the varying OC content and not its chemistry.

Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation

Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO₂ emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5–11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70–185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055–1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO₂ emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1–3.1 Tg CO₂-e yr^-1, increasing annual CO₂ emissions from land use change in Australia by 12–21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here the authors assessed organic carbon storage in VCE across Australian and the potential annual CO₂ emission benefits of VCE conservation and find that Australia contributes substantially the carbon stored in VCE globally.

The future of Blue Carbon science

The term Blue Carbon (BC) was first coined a decade ago to describe the disproportionately large contribution of coastal vegetated ecosystems to global carbon sequestration. The role of BC in climate change mitigation and adaptation has now reached international prominence. To help prioritise future research, we assembled leading experts in the field to agree upon the top-ten pending questions in BC science. Understanding how climate change affects carbon accumulation in mature BC ecosystems and during their restoration was a high priority. Controversial questions included the role of carbonate and macroalgae in BC cycling, and the degree to which greenhouse gases are released following disturbance of BC ecosystems. Scientists seek improved precision of the extent of BC ecosystems; techniques to determine BC provenance; understanding of the factors that influence sequestration in BC ecosystems, with the corresponding value of BC; and the management actions that are effective in enhancing this value. Overall this overview provides a comprehensive road map for the coming decades on future research in BC science.

The role of Blue Carbon in climate change mitigation and adaptation has now reached international prominence. Here the authors identified the top-ten unresolved questions in the field and find that most questions relate to the precise role blue carbon can play in mitigating climate change and the most effective management actions in maximising this.

2 The incidence of undiagnosed coeliac disease in patients presenting with stress fracture to a tertiary referral centre

Aim

Stress fracture aetiology is often multifactorial and laboratory blood tests (LBT) can unmask underlying metabolic bone risk factors and disorders. Coeliac disease (CD) is associated with low bone mineral density and an increased risk of fractures.1 In addition, there are rare reports of occult CD presenting with stress fractures.2 Anti-tissue transglutaminase antibody (TTG) testing has a high sensitivity and specificity for CD and is used as a screening test.3 This report examines the incidence of undiagnosed CD in patients presenting with stress fractures to a Sport and Exercise Medicine (SEM) clinic.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of 100 consecutive patients with radiologically proven stress fractures presenting to a single tertiary NHS SEM clinic was performed. Age, gender, fracture site, co-morbidities, TTG result and subsequent investigations were examined. Records were reviewed to confirm LBT, including TTG, had been performed at the time of diagnosis.

Results

Seventy patients (70%) were female and mean age was 37 years (range 18–69). Metatarsal (35%) and tibial (21%) fractures were most common. TTG was performed in 85 patients. Two patients were excluded due to pre-existing CD. Five patients (5/83 (6%), mean age 38 years (28–57), 80% female) had a positive TTG; three of whom had CD confirmed by endoscopic biopsy and two are awaiting investigation. Four patients with a positive TTG underwent dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, with osteopenia (T-Score between −1.0 and −2.5) found in 75% of cases, although only one had a Z-score less than -2.0.

Conclusion

In this cohort, the incidence of undiagnosed CD was between 3.6% to 6%, with a prevalence between 5% to 7%, approximately 5-fold higher than UK population estimates. We recommend that TTG screening should be performed in all patients presenting with stress fractures to identify underlying CD. Further work is required to confirm this association and elucidate potential underlying mechanisms.

References

Heikkilä K, Pearce J, Mäki M, et al. Celiac disease and bone fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2015;100(1):25–34.

Gilbody J, Trevett M. Coeliac disease presenting with bilateral fibular stress fractures. Foot Ankle Surg 2009;15:96–100.

3. Downey L, Houten R, Murch S, Longson D, Group GD. Recognition, assessment, and management of coeliac disease: summary of updated NICE guidance. BMJ 2015;351:h4513.

Optimal soil carbon sampling designs to achieve cost-effectiveness: a case study in blue carbon ecosystems

Researchers are increasingly studying carbon (C) storage by natural ecosystems for climate mitigation, including coastal 'blue carbon' ecosystems. Unfortunately, little guidance on how to achieve robust, cost-effective estimates of blue C stocks to inform inventories exists. We use existing data (492 cores) to develop recommendations on the sampling effort required to achieve robust estimates of blue C. Using a broad-scale, spatially explicit dataset from Victoria, Australia, we applied multiple spatial methods to provide guidelines for reducing variability in estimates of soil C stocks over large areas. With a separate dataset collected across Australia, we evaluated how many samples are needed to capture variability within soil cores and the best methods for extrapolating C to 1 m soil depth. We found that 40 core samples are optimal for capturing C variance across 1000's of kilometres but higher density sampling is required across finer scales (100-200 km). Accounting for environmental variation can further decrease required sampling. The within core analyses showed that nine samples within a core capture the majority of the variability and log-linear equations can accurately extrapolate C. These recommendations can help develop standardized methods for sampling programmes to quantify soil C stocks at national scales.

Carbon stocks, sequestration, and emissions of wetlands in south eastern Australia

Nontidal wetlands are estimated to contribute significantly to the soil carbon pool across the globe. However, our understanding of the occurrence and variability of carbon storage between wetland types and across regions represents a major impediment to the ability of nations to include wetlands in greenhouse gas inventories and carbon offset initiatives. We performed a large-scale survey of nontidal wetland soil carbon stocks and accretion rates from the state of Victoria in south-eastern Australia-a region spanning 237,000 km² and containing >35,000 temperate, alpine, and semi-arid wetlands. From an analysis of >1,600 samples across 103 wetlands, we found that alpine wetlands had the highest carbon stocks (290 ± 180 Mg C_org ha^-1 ), while permanent open freshwater wetlands and saline wetlands had the lowest carbon stocks (110 ± 120 and 60 ± 50 Mg C_org ha^-1 , respectively). Permanent open freshwater sites sequestered on average three times more carbon per year over the last century than shallow freshwater marshes (2.50 ± 0.44 and 0.79 ± 0.45 Mg C_org ha^-1  year^-1 , respectively). Using this data, we estimate that wetlands in Victoria have a soil carbon stock in the upper 1 m of 68 million tons of C_org , with an annual soil carbon sequestration rate of 3 million tons of CO₂ eq. year^-1 -equivalent to the annual emissions of about 3% of the state's population. Since European settlement (~1834), drainage and loss of 260,530 ha of wetlands may have released between 20 and 75 million tons CO₂ equivalents (based on 27%-90% of soil carbon converted to CO₂ ). Overall, we show that despite substantial spatial variability within wetland types, some wetland types differ in their carbon stocks and sequestration rates. The duration of water inundation, plant community composition, and allochthonous carbon inputs likely play an important role in influencing variation in carbon storage.

Modelling the dynamic physical protection of soil organic carbon: Insights into carbon predictions and explanation of the priming effect

The role and significance of physically protected soil organic carbon (SOC) in regulating SOC dynamics remains unclear. Here, we developed a simple theoretical model (DP model) considering dynamic physical protection to simulate the dynamics of protected (C_p ) and unprotected SOC (C_u ), and compared the modelling results with a conventional two-pool (fast vs. slow) model considering chemical recalcitrance. The two models were first constrained using extensive SOC data collected from soils with and without fresh carbon (C) inputs under incubation conditions, and then applied to project SOC dynamics and explore mechanisms underpinning the priming effect (PE). Overall, both models explained more than 99% of the variances in observed SOC dynamics. The DP model predicted that C_p accounted for the majority of total SOC. As decomposition proceeds, the proportion of C_p reached >90% and kept relatively constant. Although the similar performance of the two models in simulating observed total SOC dynamics, their predictions of future SOC dynamics were divergent, challenging the predictions of widely used pool-based models. The DP model also suggested alternative mechanisms underpinning the priming of SOC decomposition by fresh C inputs. The two-pool model suggested that the PE was caused by the stimulated decomposition rates, especially for the slow recalcitrant pool, while the DP model suggested that the PE might be the combined consequence of stimulated C_u decomposition, the liberation of C_p to decomposition and the inhibition of the protection of unprotected SOC. The model-data integration provided a new explanation for the PE, highlighting the importance of liberation of initially physically protected SOC to decomposition by new C inputs. Our model-data integration demonstrated the importance of simulating physical protection processes for reliable SOC predictions, and provided new insights into mechanistic understanding of the priming effect.

Soil carbon sequestration potential of permanent pasture and continuous cropping soils in New Zealand

Understanding soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is important to develop strategies to increase the SOC stock and, thereby, offset some of the increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Although the capacity of soils to store SOC in a stable form is commonly attributed to the fine (clay + fine silt) fraction, the properties of the fine fraction that determine the SOC stabilization capacity are poorly known. The aim of this study was to develop an improved model to estimate the SOC stabilization capacity of Allophanic (Andisols) and non-Allophanic topsoils (0-15 cm) and, as a case study, to apply the model to predict the sequestration potential of pastoral soils across New Zealand. A quantile (90th) regression model, based on the specific surface area and extractable aluminium (pyrophosphate) content of soils, provided the best prediction of the upper limit of fine fraction carbon (FFC) (i.e. the stabilization capacity), but with different coefficients for Allophanic and non-Allophanic soils. The carbon (C) saturation deficit was estimated as the difference between the stabilization capacity of individual soils and their current C concentration. For long-term pastures, the mean saturation deficit of Allophanic soils (20.3 mg C g^-1 ) was greater than that of non-Allophanic soils (16.3 mg C g^-1 ). The saturation deficit of cropped soils was 1.14-1.89 times that of pasture soils. The sequestration potential of pasture soils ranged from 10 t C ha^-1 (Ultic soils) to 42 t C ha^-1 (Melanic soils). Although meeting the estimated national soil C sequestration potential (124 Mt C) is unrealistic, improved management practices targeted to those soils with the greatest sequestration potential could contribute significantly to off-setting New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions. As the first national-scale estimate of SOC sequestration potential that encompasses both Allophanic and non-Allophanic soils, this serves as an informative case study for the international community.

Sediment anoxia limits microbial-driven seagrass carbon remineralization under warming conditions

Seagrass ecosystems are significant carbon sinks, and their resident microbial communities ultimately determine the quantity and quality of carbon sequestered. However, environmental perturbations have been predicted to affect microbial-driven seagrass decomposition and subsequent carbon sequestration. Utilizing techniques including 16S-rDNA sequencing, solid-state NMR and microsensor profiling, we tested the hypothesis that elevated seawater temperatures and eutrophication enhance the microbial decomposition of seagrass leaf detritus and rhizome/root tissues. Nutrient additions had a negligible effect on seagrass decomposition, indicating an absence of nutrient limitation. Elevated temperatures caused a 19% higher biomass loss for aerobically decaying leaf detritus, coinciding with changes in bacterial community structure and enhanced lignocellulose degradation. Although, community shifts and lignocellulose degradation were also observed for rhizome/root decomposition, anaerobic decay was unaffected by temperature. These observations suggest that oxygen availability constrains the stimulatory effects of temperature increases on bacterial carbon remineralization, possibly through differential temperature effects on bacterial functional groups, including putative aerobic heterotrophs (e.g. Erythrobacteraceae, Hyphomicrobiaceae) and sulfate reducers (e.g. Desulfobacteraceae). Consequently, under elevated seawater temperatures, carbon accumulation rates may diminish due to higher remineralization rates at the sediment surface. Nonetheless, the anoxic conditions ubiquitous to seagrass sediments can provide a degree of carbon protection under warming seawater temperatures.

Dynamics of sediment carbon stocks across intertidal wetland habitats of Moreton Bay, Australia

Coastal wetlands are known for high carbon storage within their sediments, but our understanding of the variation in carbon storage among intertidal habitats, particularly over geomorphological settings and along elevation gradients, is limited. Here, we collected 352 cores from 18 sites across Moreton Bay, Australia. We assessed variation in sediment organic carbon (OC) stocks among different geomorphological settings (wetlands within riverine settings along with those with reduced riverine influence located on tide-dominated sand islands), across elevation gradients, with distance from shore and among habitat and vegetation types. We used mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy combined with analytical data and partial least squares regression to quantify the carbon content of ~2500 sediment samples and provide fine-scale spatial coverage of sediment OC stocks to 150 cm depth. We found sites in river deltas had larger OC stocks (175-504 Mg/ha) than those in nonriverine settings (44-271 Mg/ha). Variation in OC stocks among nonriverine sites was high in comparison with riverine and mixed geomorphic settings, with sites closer to riverine outflow from the east and south of Moreton Bay having higher stocks than those located on the sand islands in the northwest of the bay. Sediment OC stocks increased with elevation within nonriverine settings, but not in riverine geomorphic settings. Sediment OC stocks did not differ between mangrove and saltmarsh habitats. OC stocks did, however, differ between dominant species across the research area and within geomorphic settings. At the landscape scale, the coastal wetlands of the South East Queensland catchments (17,792 ha) are comprised of approximately 4,100,000-5,200,000 Mg of sediment OC. Comparatively high variation in OC storage between riverine and nonriverine geomorphic settings indicates that the availability of mineral sediments and terrestrial derived OC may exert a strong influence over OC storage potential across intertidal wetland systems.

Soil organic carbon dynamics jointly controlled by climate, carbon inputs, soil properties and soil carbon fractions

Soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics are regulated by the complex interplay of climatic, edaphic and biotic conditions. However, the interrelation of SOC and these drivers and their potential connection networks are rarely assessed quantitatively. Using observations of SOC dynamics with detailed soil properties from 90 field trials at 28 sites under different agroecosystems across the Australian cropping regions, we investigated the direct and indirect effects of climate, soil properties, carbon (C) inputs and soil C pools (a total of 17 variables) on SOC change rate (r_C , Mg C ha^-1  yr^-1 ). Among these variables, we found that the most influential variables on r_C were the average C input amount and annual precipitation, and the total SOC stock at the beginning of the trials. Overall, C inputs (including C input amount and pasture frequency in the crop rotation system) accounted for 27% of the relative influence on r_C , followed by climate 25% (including precipitation and temperature), soil C pools 24% (including pool size and composition) and soil properties (such as cation exchange capacity, clay content, bulk density) 24%. Path analysis identified a network of intercorrelations of climate, soil properties, C inputs and soil C pools in determining r_C . The direct correlation of r_C with climate was significantly weakened if removing the effects of soil properties and C pools, and vice versa. These results reveal the relative importance of climate, soil properties, C inputs and C pools and their complex interconnections in regulating SOC dynamics. Ignorance of the impact of changes in soil properties, C pool composition and C input (quantity and quality) on SOC dynamics is likely one of the main sources of uncertainty in SOC predictions from the process-based SOC models.

A Global Assessment of the Chemical Recalcitrance of Seagrass Tissues: Implications for Long-Term Carbon Sequestration

Seagrass ecosystems have recently been identified for their role in climate change mitigation due to their globally-significant carbon sinks; yet, the capacity of seagrasses to sequester carbon has been shown to vary greatly among seagrass ecosystems. The recalcitrant nature of seagrass tissues, or the resistance to degradation back into carbon dioxide, is one aspect thought to influence sediment carbon stocks. In this study, a global survey investigated how the macromolecular chemistry of seagrass leaves, sheaths/stems, rhizomes and roots varied across 23 species from 16 countries. The goal was to understand how this seagrass chemistry might influence the capacity of seagrasses to contribute to sediment carbon stocks. Three non-destructive analytical chemical analyses were used to investigate seagrass chemistry: thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and solid state ¹³C-NMR and infrared spectroscopy. A strong latitudinal influence on carbon quality was found, whereby temperate seagrasses contained 5% relatively more labile carbon, and tropical seagrasses contained 3% relatively more refractory carbon. Sheath/stem tissues significantly varied across taxa, with larger morphologies typically containing more refractory carbon than smaller morphologies. Rhizomes were characterized by a higher proportion of labile carbon (16% of total organic matter compared to 8-10% in other tissues); however, high rhizome biomass production and slower remineralization in anoxic sediments will likely enhance these below-ground tissues' contributions to long-term carbon stocks. Our study provides a standardized and global dataset on seagrass carbon quality across tissue types, taxa and geography that can be incorporated in carbon sequestration and storage models as well as ecosystem valuation and management strategies.

Land-use contrasts reveal instability of subsoil organic carbon

Subsoils contain large amounts of organic carbon which is generally believed to be highly stable when compared with surface soils. We investigated subsurface organic carbon storage and dynamics by analysing organic carbon concentrations, fractions and isotopic values in 78 samples from 12 sites under different land-uses and climates in eastern Australia. Despite radiocarbon ages of several millennia in subsoils, contrasting native systems with agriculturally managed systems revealed that subsurface organic carbon is reactive on decadal timeframes to land-use change, which leads to large losses of young carbon down the entire soil profile. Our results indicate that organic carbon storage in soils is input driven down the whole profile, challenging the concept of subsoils as a repository of stable organic carbon.

Climate and soil properties limit the positive effects of land use reversion on carbon storage in Eastern Australia

Australia’s “Direct Action” climate change policy relies on purchasing greenhouse gas abatement from projects undertaking approved abatement activities. Management of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural soils is an approved activity, based on the expectation that land use change can deliver significant changes in SOC. However, there are concerns that climate, topography and soil texture will limit changes in SOC stocks. This work analyses data from 1482 sites surveyed across the major agricultural regions of Eastern Australia to determine the relative importance of land use vs. other drivers of SOC. Variation in land use explained only 1.4% of the total variation in SOC, with aridity and soil texture the main regulators of SOC stock under different land uses. Results suggest the greatest potential for increasing SOC stocks in Eastern Australian agricultural regions lies in converting from cropping to pasture on heavy textured soils in the humid regions.

Soil salinity decreases global soil organic carbon stocks

Saline soils cover 3.1% (397 million hectare) of the total land area of the world. The stock of soil organic carbon (SOC) reflects the balance between carbon (C) inputs from plants, and losses through decomposition, leaching and erosion. Soil salinity decreases plant productivity and hence C inputs to the soil, but also microbial activity and therefore SOC decomposition rates. Using a modified Rothamsted Carbon model (RothC) with a newly introduced salinity decomposition rate modifier and a plant input modifier we estimate that, historically, world soils that are currently saline have lost an average of 3.47 tSOC ha(-1) since they became saline. With the extent of saline soils predicted to increase in the future, our modelling suggests that world soils may lose 6.8 Pg SOC due to salinity by the year 2100. Our findings suggest that current models overestimate future global SOC stocks and underestimate net CO2 emissions from the soil-plant system by not taking salinity effects into account. From the perspective of enhancing soil C stocks, however, given the lower SOC decomposition rate in saline soils, salt tolerant plants could be used to sequester C in salt-affected areas.

Simulation of salinity effects on past, present, and future soil organic carbon stocks

Soil organic carbon (SOC) models are used to predict changes in SOC stocks and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from soils, and have been successfully validated for non-saline soils. However, SOC models have not been developed to simulate SOC turnover in saline soils. Due to the large extent of salt-affected areas in the world, it is important to correctly predict SOC dynamics in salt-affected soils. To close this knowledge gap, we modified the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) to simulate SOC turnover in salt-affected soils, using data from non-salt-affected and salt-affected soils in two agricultural regions in India (120 soils) and in Australia (160 soils). Recently we developed a decomposition rate modifier based on an incubation study of a subset of these soils. In the present study, we introduce a new method to estimate the past losses of SOC due to salinity and show how salinity affects future SOC stocks on a regional scale. Because salinity decreases decomposition rates, simulations using the decomposition rate modifier for salinity suggest an accumulation of SOC. However, if the plant inputs are also adjusted to reflect reduced plant growth under saline conditions, the simulations show a significant loss of soil carbon in the past due to salinization, with a higher average loss of SOC in Australian soils (55 t C ha(-1)) than in Indian soils (31 t C ha(-1)). There was a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) between SOC loss and osmotic potential. Simulations of future SOC stocks with the decomposition rate modifier and the plant input modifier indicate a greater decrease in SOC in saline than in non-saline soils under future climate. The simulations of past losses of SOC due to salinity were repeated using either measured charcoal-C or the inert organic matter predicted by the Falloon et al. equation to determine how much deviation from the Falloon et al. equation affects the amount of plant inputs generated by the model for the soils used in this study. Both sets of results suggest that saline soils have lost carbon and will continue to lose carbon under future climate. This demonstrates the importance of both reduced decomposition and reduced plant input in simulations of future changes in SOC stocks in saline soils.

Introducing a decomposition rate modifier in the Rothamsted Carbon Model to predict soil organic carbon stocks in saline soils

Soil organic carbon (SOC) models such as the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) have been used to estimate SOC dynamics in soils over different time scales but, until recently, their ability to accurately predict SOC stocks/carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from salt-affected soils has not been assessed. Given the large extent of salt-affected soils (19% of the 20.8 billion ha of arable land on Earth), this may lead to miss-estimation of CO(2) release. Using soils from two salt-affected regions (one in Punjab, India and one in South Australia), an incubation study was carried out measuring CO(2) release over 120 days. The soils varied both in salinity (measured as electrical conductivity (EC) and calculated as osmotic potential using EC and water content) and sodicity (measured as sodium adsorption ratio, SAR). For soils from both regions, the osmotic potential had a significant positive relationship with CO(2)-C release, but no significant relationship was found between SAR and CO(2)-C release. The monthly cumulative CO(2)-C was simulated using RothC. RothC was modified to take into account reductions in plant inputs due to salinity. A subset of non-salt-affected soils was used to derive an equation for a "lab-effect" modifier to account for changes in decomposition under lab conditions and this modifier was significantly related with pH. Using a subset of salt-affected soils, a decomposition rate modifier (as a function of osmotic potential) was developed to match measured and modelled CO(2)-C release after correcting for the lab effect. Using this decomposition rate modifier, we found an agreement (R(2) = 0.92) between modelled and independently measured data for a set of soils from the incubation experiment. RothC, modified by including reduced plant inputs due to salinity and the salinity decomposition rate modifier, was used to predict SOC stocks of soils in a field in South Australia. The predictions clearly showed that SOC stocks are reduced in saline soils. Therefore both the decomposition rate modifier and plant input modifier should be taken into account when accounting for SOC turnover in saline soils. Since modeling has previously not accounted for the impact of salinity, our results suggest that previous predictions may have overestimated SOC stocks.

Voluntary screening program for prostate cancer: detection rate and cost

In a community-wide screening program conducted in Jacksonville, Florida, 564 participants received free screening for prostate cancer. Frequency of positive results of prostate-specific antigen measurement and digital rectal examination was comparable to that found in similar programs in other communities. The estimated cost for each participant was $231, and the cost to discover each cancer was $7,240. If one also includes initial therapy in cost estimates, then the cost per participant was $520, and the cost to find and treat each patient was $16,300. The value of screening for prostate cancer must be judged by treatment outcome and underlying costs.