Statin Use and Liver Cancer Risk: A Meta-Epidemiological Study of Retrospective Cohort Studies by the Types of Constructed Cohort

OBJECTIVE

Previous systematic reviews of retrospective cohorts (RSC) indicate that statin use decreases the risk of liver cancer. However, the summary effect size (sES) of the randomized controlled trials was not statistically significant. This study aimed to conduct a subgroup meta-analysis based on the types of constructed cohorts.

METHODS

RSCs were selected from previous systematic reviews. Based on the characteristics of the source database (national vs. hospital) and the selection criteria of the subjects (population vs. patients), RSCs were categorized into three types of study cohorts: a national-based population cohort (NPo), national-based patient cohort (NPa), and hospital-based patient cohort (HPa). The sES and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a random-effects model.

RESULT

The 28 cohorts from 23 RSC were classified into 15 NPa, 7 NPo, and 6 HPa. The sES of 15 NPa decreased the liver cancer risk with statin intake history with statistical significance, but 7 NPo lost statistical significance.

CONCLUSION

The lack of statistical significance in NPo supports the argument that the conclusions of existing systematic reviews on RSC have low validity. It is necessary to conduct a subgroup meta-analysis of the NPo, NPa, and HPa proposed in this study when conducting a systematic review of RSCs, which will evaluate various outcomes of a specific drug intake with time-varying exposure.

Trends of legionellosis reported in Jeju Province, Republic of Korea, 2015-2022

BACKGROUND

The number of reported cases of Legionnaires' disease (LD) in the Republic of Korea surged nationally in 2016; however, in 2022, this number was higher in Jeju Province than the previous national peak. A descriptive epidemiological study was conducted to analyze trends in the incidence of reported LD cases in Jeju Island from 2015 to 2022.

METHODS

The data for this study were obtained from case reports submitted to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency through its Disease and Health Integrated Management System. The selection criteria were cases or suspected cases of LD reported among Jeju residents between 2015 and 2022. The 95% confidence interval of the crude incidence rate was calculated using the Poisson distribution.

RESULTS

Since 2020, the incidence rate of LD in Jeju has risen sharply, showing a statistically significant difference from the national incidence rate. A particular medical institution in Jeju reported a significant number of LD cases. Screening with the urine antigen test (UAT) also increased significantly.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that the rapid increase in cases of LD in Jeju Province since 2020 was due to the characteristics of medical-care use among Jeju residents, which were focused on a specific medical institution. According to their clinical practice guidelines, this medical institution conducted UATs to screen patients suspected of pneumonia.

Epidemiological investigation of a food-borne outbreak in a kindergarten, Jeju Province, Korea

OBJECTIVES

On Monday, September 6, 2021, at a kindergarten in Jeju Province, a large number of children vomited and developed food poisoning symptoms, and this necessitated an epidemiological investigation.

METHODS

The team surveyed symptoms and food intake history of kindergarten children, teachers, and workers who ate lunch between September 2 (Thursday) and September 6 (Monday), excluding weekends. In addition to rectal swabs, environmental samples from preserved foods, cooking utensils, drinking water, and refrigerator handles were collected. Pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) for genetic fingerprint analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

There were 19 cases among 176 subjects, which indicated an attack rate of 10.8%. The epidemic curve showed a unimodal shape, and the average incubation period was 2.6 hours. While no food was statistically significant in food intake history, the analysis of 35 rectal smear samples detected Bacillus cereus in 7 children, 4 teachers, and 1 cooking staff. Enterotoxins were also detected in 12 samples. Out of 38 environmental samples, B. cereus and enterotoxins were detected in the morning snack cereal, lunch bean sprouts, and afternoon snack steamed potatoes on Monday, September 6th. The result of the PFGE test on 10 isolates of B. cereus showed that there was no genetic homology.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that this outbreak was simultaneously caused by various strains of B. cereus from the environment.

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and hypertension risk after adjusting for publication bias

BACKGROUND

Previous systematic reviews reported that serum vitamin D deficiency was associated with risk of hypertension. The aim was to conduct a meta-epidemiological analysis for evaluating the potential effects of publication bias.

METHODS

The selection criterion was defined as a follow-up study for evaluating the association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitam D level and hypertension risk in adults. A funnel plot and Egger's test were used to detect a publication bias. If a publication bias was identified, trim-and-fill analysis (TFA) with linear estimator was performed to estimate a summary relative risk (sRR).

RESULTS

The meta-analysis of 13 cohorts resulted in the lower the vitamin D, the higher the risk of hypertension statistically significant (sRR, 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05 to 1.41). But The P-value of Egger's test (=0.015) and asymmetry of the funnel plot showed that there was a publication bias. TFA resulted in that statistical significance disappeared in the association between vitamin D level and hypertension risk in total cohorts (filled sRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.18) as well as men and women cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The publication bias-adjusted results by TFA had no statistically significant association between vitamin D levels and the risk of hypertension. The significant results in previous systematic reviews might be interpreted as due to publication bias.

Diabetes History and Gastric Cancer Risk: Different Results by Types of Follow-Up Studies

Objective:

The previous systematic reviews evaluating the association between diabetes history and gastric cancer risk showed inconsistent results. The aim was to check through a meta-epidemiological study that the conclusions of systematic reviews evaluating the association between diabetes history and gastric cancer risk might differ by the type of follow-up study.

Methods:

The potential study subjects were follow-up studies selected from the seven systematic reviews obtained by searching PubMed using diabetes and gastric cancer keywords. The selection criterion was defined as a follow-up study for evaluating the association between the history of type 2 diabetes mellitus and the incidence of gastric cancer. And the values of RR and its 95%CI, which adjusted for the most confounders in each paper, were extracted for meta-analysis. A random-effects model meta-analysis by types of the follow-up study and sex group was performed.

Results:

A total of 25 follow-up studies were finally selected for meta-analysis. They were classified into 16 retrospective and 9 prospective studies in types of follow-up study. The statistical significance between diabetes history and gastric cancer risk was found in retrospective studies (sRR=1.17, 95%CI: 1.02-1.34, I-squared =91.0%) but disappeared in prospective studies (sRR=1.09, 95%CI: 0.91-1.29, I-squared = 68.6%). Even in the analysis of subgroups by sex, statistical significance was not found in the prospective study, consistently.

Conclusion:

The main reason for the previous meta-analysis’s diverse results for the association between diabetes history and gastric cancer risk was that the type of follow-up study was not reflected. According to the meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies, it could be concluded that there is no association between diabetes history and gastric cancer risk.

Hormonal Replacement Therapy and Risk of Thyroid Cancer in Women: A Meta-Epidemiological Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Objectives

Many experimental studies have reported that female sex hormones involve thyroid cancer development because the incidence rate of thyroid cancer in women (TCW) is 3 times higher than in men. Three previous systematic reviews reporting no association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and TCW risk had the same search year of 2014. The aim was to reevaluate the association between HRT use and TCW risk using a meta-epidemiological study of prospective cohort studies.

Methods

The study preferentially used all studies selected by the existing systematic reviews and then secured an additional cohort from the list citing the studies. The selection criterion was defined as the prospective cohort study assessing the association between HRT and TCW risk by adjusted relative risk and its 95% confidence intervals (CI) from multivariate analysis. A random-effects model meta-analysis was applied to estimate summary relative risk (sRR) and its 95% CI. A publication bias was evaluated by Egger’s test; moreover, the statistical significance level was set at 5%.

Results

Nine cohort studies were finally selected. The random-effect model was applied because of heterogeneity (I² = 64.3%). The sRR and its 95% CI from a random-effects model meta-analysis had no statistical significance in the association between HRT and TCW risk (sRR = 1.11; 95% CI, 0.98–1.26). Additionally, Egger’s test revealed no statistical significance (P = 0.91).

Conclusions

HRT is not associated with TCW risk based on the random-effects model meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies published until now.

Use of oral contraceptives and risk of pancreatic cancer in women: A recalculated meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

In a recent systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies, the author found potential errors in the selection and extraction processes. The recalculated summary relative risks and the results of a dose-response meta-analysis showed that oral contraceptive use may not be associated with the risk of pancreatic cancer in women.

Human papillomavirus infection and gastric cancer risk: A meta-epidemiological review

Gastric cancer (GC) is a multifactorial disease, and several modifiable risk factors have been reported. This review summarizes and interprets two previous quantitative systematic reviews evaluating the association between human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and GC risk. The results of two systematic reviews evaluating the same hypothesis showed a statistically significant difference in summary odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Thus, it is necessary to conduct a subgroup analysis of Chinese and non-Chinese studies. Additional meta-analyses that control for heterogeneity are required. Reanalysis showed that all the Chinese studies had statistical significance, whereas the non-national studies did not. The funnel plot asymmetry and Egger's test confirmed publication bias in the Chinese studies. In addition, the proportion of HPV-positive cases in Chinese studies was 1.43 times higher than that in non-Chinese studies and 2.81 times lower in controls. Therefore, the deduced evidence is currently insufficient to conclude that HPV infection is associated with GC risk.

Sources of Infection Among Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Jeju Province, Korea

Objectives

Jeju Province in Korea reported 627 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases between January 20, 2020, and March 31, 2021. This study analyzed the sources of infection among confirmed cases in Jeju Province, a self-governed island.

Methods

The sources of infection were broadly categorized as follows: (1) infections from overseas (confirmed patients who reported travel overseas or contact with overseas travelers); (2) infections from outside Jeju Province (confirmed patients who had visited other provinces or had contact with individuals who had traveled to other provinces in Korea); and (3) unknown sources of infection (confirmed patients who were infected following contact with an infected person whose source of infection was unknown). The chi-square test was used to analyze the differences in the distributions of related variables for each source of infection.

Results

Of the 627 confirmed cases, 38 (6.1%) were infections from overseas sources, 199 (31.7%) were from outside of Jeju Province, and 390 (62.2%) were from unknown sources. Jeju Province had no cases with an unknown source of infection during the first and second waves of the nationwide outbreak.

Conclusions

Infections from overseas sources could be blocked from spreading to local communities in Jeju Province by conducting screening at the airport, along with the preemptive suspension of visa-free entry. In addition, considering the scale of the nationwide outbreak, measures must be established to delay outbreaks from unknown sources of infection caused by sources outside Jeju Province.

Coffee consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Asians: A meta-epidemiological study of population-based cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Previous systematic reviews have consistently reported that coffee consumption has a preventive effect on the occurrence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, further evaluations between coffee consumption and the risk of T2DM in Asian populations are needed.

AIM

To conduct a meta-epidemiological study on systematic reviews evaluating the association between coffee consumption and the risk of T2DM in Asian people.

METHODS

The selection criterion was defined as a population-based prospective cohort study evaluating the association between coffee consumption and the risk of T2DM in Asian populations, reporting the adjusted relative risk (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) for potential confounders. A fixed-effect model meta-analysis was applied to calculate the summary RR and its 95%CI in less than 50% of the I² value indicating the level of heterogeneity. A two-stage fixed-effects dose-response meta-analysis (DRMA) was performed to calculate the risk per unit dose (a cup per day).

RESULTS

A total of seven studies were selected in this meta-epidemiological study. The risk of T2DM in Asian populations was significantly reduced in the highest to the lowest dose group (summary RR = 0.73, 95%CI: 0.66-0.82; I² value = 0.0%). The DRMA showed that drinking one cup of coffee per day reduced the risk of T2DM in Asian populations by 8% (RR = 0.92, 95%CI: 0.90-0.95).

CONCLUSION

These findings support the conclusion that coffee consumption has a protective effect on the occurrence of T2DM in Asian men and women.

Sex as an effect modifier in the association between alcohol intake and gastric cancer risk

BACKGROUND

The results of previous meta-analyses evaluating the association between the alcohol intake and gastric cancer risk have reported that a statistical significance only for men.

AIM

To investigate the different association between alcohol intake and gastric cancer risk between men and women.

METHODS

The selection criteria included a prospective cohort study for evaluating alcohol intake and gastric cancer risk, with relative risks adjusted for potential confounders. Adjusted relative risk (RR) for the potential confounders and its 95% confidence interval (CI) in the highest vs lowest level were extracted from each study and a random-effects meta-analysis was conducted. Subgroup analyses by region, level of adjustment for smoking status, adjusting for body mass index, and year of publication were conducted.

RESULTS

A meta-analysis of all 27 cohorts showed that alcohol intake increased the risk of gastric cancer (summary RR = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.04-1.23, I² = 58.2%). Further, 13 men’s cohorts had higher summary RR while maintaining statistical significance, and only seven women’s cohorts had no statistical significance.

CONCLUSION

The present review suggests that alcohol consumption increases the risk of gastric cancer in men. These findings showed that the sex variable in the association between alcohol intake and gastric cancer risk seemed to be an effect modifier with an interaction term. It is necessary to re-estimate follow-up outcomes after stratifying for sex.

A randomized phase III trial comparing adjuvant single-agent S1, S-1 with oxaliplatin, and postoperative chemoradiation with S-1 and oxaliplatin in patients with node-positive gastric cancer after D2 resection: the ARTIST 2 trial☆

BACKGROUND

Adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy are some of the standards of care for gastric cancer (GC). The Adjuvant chemoRadioTherapy In Stomach Tumors (ARTIST) 2 trial compares two adjuvant chemotherapy regimens and chemoradiotherapy in patients with D2-resected, stage II or III, node-positive GC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The ARTIST 2 compared, in a 1:1:1 ratio, three adjuvant regimens: oral S-1 (40-60 mg twice daily 4 weeks on/2 weeks off) for 1 year, S-1 (2 weeks on/1 week off) plus oxaliplatin 130 mg/m² every 3 weeks (SOX) for 6 months, and SOX plus chemoradiotherapy 45 Gy (SOXRT). Randomization was stratified according to surgery type (total or subtotal gastrectomy), pathologic stage (II or III), and Lauren histologic classification (diffuse or intestinal/mixed). The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS) at 3 years; a reduction of 33% in the hazard ratio (HR) for DFS with SOX or SOXRT, when compared with S-1, was considered clinically meaningful. The trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT0176146).

RESULTS

A total of 546 patients were recruited between February 2013 and January 2018 with 182, 181, and 183 patients in the S-1, SOX, and SOXRT arms, respectively. Median follow-up period was 47 months, with 178 DFS events observed. Estimated 3-year DFS rates were 64.8%, 74.3%, and 72.8% in the S-1, SOX, and SOXRT arms, respectively. HR for DFS in the control arm (S-1) was shorter than that in the SOX and SOXRT arms: S-1 versus SOX, 0.692 (P = 0.042) and S-1 versus SOXRT, 0.724 (P = 0.074). No difference in DFS was found between SOX and SOXRT (HR 0.971; P = 0.879). Adverse events were as anticipated in each arm, and were generally well-tolerated and manageable.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with curatively D2-resected, stage II/III, node-positive GC, adjuvant SOX or SOXRT was effective in prolonging DFS, when compared with S-1 monotherapy. The addition of radiotherapy to SOX did not significantly reduce the rate of recurrence after D2 gastrectomy.

Coffee Consumption and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Meta-Epidemiological Study of Population-based Cohort Studies

OBJECTIVE

Previous systematic reviews evaluating the association between coffee consumption and pancreatic cancer showed inconsistent results. The aim was to conduct a meta-epidemiological study to explore further the association between coffee consumption and the incidence of pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

The selection criteria were defined as a population-based prospective cohort study reporting adjusted relative risk (RR) and their 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of pancreatic cancer occurrence according to coffee consumption. Adjusted RR for the highest versus the lowest level of coffee consumption in each study was extracted. A fixed-effect model was applied to calculate a summary RR (sRR) and its 95%CI. Two-stage random-effects dose-response meta-analysis (DRMA) was performed to estimate the incidence risk per unit dose (cup per day).

RESULTS

Twelve cohort studies were selected for meta-analysis. The total number of cohort participants was 3,230,053, and pancreatic cancer incidents were 10,587. The sRR of pancreatic cancer risk for the highest versus the lowest level of coffee consumption indicated no statistical significance (sRR=0.98, 95% CI: 0.88-1.10; I-squared=0.0%). Two-stage random-effect DRMA showed the non-linear relationship between the amount of coffee consumption and pancreatic cancer risk. And the RR for an increment of one cup per day of coffee consumption was 0.97 (95%CI: 0.91-1.04, P=0.42), without statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

There was no association between coffee consumption habits and pancreatic cancer risk. And there was no statistical significance in the dose-response relationship between the amount of coffee consumption and pancreatic cancer risk. Finding the turning point would be important because it can be critical information for the prevention of pancreatic cancer. 
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Both cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events are decreased following long-term narrowband ultraviolet B phototherapy in patients with vitiligo: a propensity score matching analysis

BACKGROUND

Systemic effects of long-term narrowband ultraviolet B (NB-UVB) phototherapy have not been well studied in vitiligo patients. An 11-year nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Korean National Health Insurance claims database (2007-2017).

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the effects of long-term NB-UVB phototherapy on the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in vitiligo patients.

METHODS

This study included vitiligo patients with ≥100 phototherapy sessions (phototherapy group, n = 3229) and <3 phototherapy sessions (no phototherapy group, n = 9687), in which covariables with age, sex, insurance type and comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia were matched by 1 : 3 propensity score matching. The outcomes of interest were cardiovascular (ischaemic heart disease and myocardial infarction) and cerebrovascular events (cerebrovascular infraction and haemorrhage). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the associations between NB-UVB phototherapy and each event.

RESULTS

The risk of cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events was significantly decreased in the phototherapy group compared with the no phototherapy group [hazard ratio (HR) 0.637, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.523-0.776]. Subgroup analysis revealed that the risk of cardiovascular (HR: 0.682, 95% CI: 0.495-0.940) and cerebrovascular events (HR: 0.601, 95% CI: 0.470-0.769) were significantly lower in the phototherapy group than the no phototherapy group, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that long-term NB-UVB phototherapy could decrease the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in patients with vitiligo.

Serum Folate Levels and Lung Cancer Risk: A Meta- Epidemiological Study of Population-based Case-Control Studies

OBJECTIVE

While it has been claimed that lung cancer occurs due to epigenetic mechanisms, four systematic reviews were reported to investigate the association between serum folate levels and lung cancer risk. Considering some methodological problems founded in the systematic review, a meta-epidemiological study was conducted.

METHODS

The selection criteria of this study were defined that a case-control study was conducted to determine the risk of lung cancer occurrence according to the concentration of serum folate and its results showed odds ratio and its 95% confidence interval. Additional paper was explored from cited lists of 4 papers selected by previous systematic reviews. Random effect model was applied if I-squared value was over 50%.

RESULTS

For 5 case-control studies selected, the summary odds ratios (and their 95% confidence intervals) were 0.82 (0.74-0.90) in men, 0.70 (0.62-0.79) in former smokers, and 0.86 (0.75-1.00) in non-smokers.

CONCLUSION

Higher foliate levels can decrease lung cancer risk in men and former smokers. Especially, the protective effect was highest in former smokers compared in non-smokers and current smokers. Based on these facts, folate fortification programs to reduce lung cancer risk would be focused on former smokers in men. And some epidemiological studies are needed to provide a hypothesis to explain the sex differences in the association between folate and lung cancer risk.

Coffee Consumption and Colon Cancer Risk: A Meta- Epidemiological Study of Asian Cohort Studies

Objective:

A systematic review reported that coffee consumption would decrease risk of colon cancer in Asian women. But the systematic review arises the issue of duplication, so that a meta-epidemiological study was conducted.

Methods:

The selection criteria were defined that a prospective cohort follow-up study conducted to evaluate coffee consumption and risk of colon cancer in Asian and showed adjusted relative risk and its 95% confidence interval. In order to conduct meta-analysis, the highest versus lowest method was applied to extract relative risk and its 95% confidence intervals of the highest category. Random effect model was applied if I-squared value was over 50%.

Results:

After avoiding duplication, 9 cohort data were selected for meta-analysis. The summary relative risk (and their 95% confidence intervals) [I-square value] were 0.90 (95% CI: 0.79-1.03) [0.0%] in men, and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.36-1.15) [65.9%] in women, respectively.

Conclusions:

The results suggest that coffee consumption is not associated with the risk of colon cancer in Asian men and women. The findings of this study are consistent with the results of two systematic reviews conducted under the same hypothesis and selection criteria. Additional epidemiological studies are needed for the inflection of colon cancer risk as the dose of coffee increases and the difference in the protective effect by sex.

A Chinese Case of COVID-19 Did Not Show Infectivity During the Incubation Period: Based on an Epidemiological Survey

Controversy remains over whether the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) virus may have infectivity during the incubation period before the onset of symptoms. The author had the opportunity to examine the infectivity of COVID-19 during the incubation period by conducting an epidemiological survey on a confirmed patient who had visited Jeju Island during the incubation period. The epidemiological findings support the claim that the COVID-19 virus does not have infectivity during the incubation period.

Ultraviolet photography in vitiligo: image quality, validity and reliability

Background

For clinical care and research in vitiligo, photographs with the use of ultraviolet (UV) light or Wood's lamp are often made. Conventional cameras are insensitive to UV light. The use of a UV camera (UV photography) might improve image quality and ameliorate the assessment of target lesions in vitiligo.

Objectives

To determine image quality and the validity and reliability of UV photography for the assessment of vitiligo target lesions.

Methods

Images of patients with vitiligo were made with UV photography and a conventional camera, and lesions were drawn on graph paper and transparent sheets. Image quality was scored by vitiligo experts and medical interns. The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) of the lesion size determined with UV photography combined with digital surface measurement and the other techniques were hypothesized to be above 0.6. The ICCs between UV images taken by the same physician and between two different physicians were calculated for determining inter‐ and intra‐reliability.

Results

In total, 31 lesions of 17 patients were included. Image quality was assessed as good or very good for 100% and 26% for UV photography and the conventional camera, respectively. ICCs of UV photography and the conventional camera, drawing the lesions on transparent sheets and graph paper, were 0.984, 0.988 and 0.983, respectively, confirming our hypotheses. The ICCs of the intra‐rater and inter‐rater were 0.999 and 0.998, respectively.

Conclusions

The results of this study indicate that the use of UV photography for the assessment of vitiligo lesions improves image quality and is valid and reliable.

Impact of genomic alterations on lapatinib treatment outcome and cell-free genomic landscape during HER2 therapy in HER2+ gastric cancer patients

Background

To identify predictive markers for responders in lapatinib-treated patients and to demonstrate molecular changes during lapatinib treatment via cell-free genomics.

Patients and methods

We prospectively evaluated the efficacy of combining lapatinib with capecitabine and oxaliplatin as first line neoadjuvant therapy in patients with previously untreated, HER2-overexpressing advanced gastric cancer. A parallel biomarker study was conducted by simultaneously performing immunohistochemistry and next-generation sequencing (NGS) with tumor and blood samples.

Results

Complete response was confirmed in 7/32 patients (21.8%), 2 of whom received radical surgery with pathologic-confirmed complete response. Fifteen partial responses (46.8%) were observed, resulting in a 68.6% overall response rate. NGS of the 16 tumor specimens demonstrated that the most common co-occurring copy number alteration was CCNE1 amplification, which was present in 40% of HER2+ tumors. The relationship between CCNE1 amplification and lack of response to HER2-targeted therapy trended toward statistical significance (66.7% of non-responders versus 22.2% of responders harbored CCNE1 amplification; P = 0.08). Patients with high level ERBB2 amplification by NGS were more likely to respond to therapy, compared with patients with low level ERBB2 amplification (P = 0.02). Analysis of cfDNA showed that detectable ERBB2 copy number amplification in plasma was predictive to the response (100%, response rate) and changes in plasma-detected genomic alterations were associated with lapatinib sensitivity and/or resistance. The follow-up cfDNA genomics at disease progression demonstrated that there are emergences of other genomic aberrations such as MYC, EGFR, FGFR2 and MET amplifications.

Conclusions

The present study showed that HER2+ GC patients respond differently according to concomitant genomic aberrations beyond ERBB2, high ERBB2 amplification by NGS or cfDNA can be a positive predictor for patient selection, and tumor genomic alterations change significantly during targeted agent therapy.

Body Mass Index and Risk of Gastric Cancer in Asian Adults: A Meta-Epidemiological Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Cohort Studies

Purpose

A previous meta-analysis (MA) published in 2009 reported that excess body weight was associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer in non-Asians, but not in Asians. The aim was to conduct a meta-epidemiological MA (MEMA) to evaluate association between excess body weight and the risk of gastric cancer in Asian adults with using the proposed classification of weight by body mass index (BMI) in Asian adults.

Materials and Methods

The selection criteria were population-based prospective cohort studies that measured BMI of cohort participants and evaluated a risk of gastric cancer. Overweight group (OW) and obesity group (OB) were defined as 23.0-24.9 and ≥ 25.0, respectively. A group only showing results for BMI over 23.0 was defined as overweight and obesity group (OWB). Random effect model was applied if I² value was over 50%.

Results

After four new studies were added through citation discovery tools, seven cohort studies with 21 datasets were selected finally for MEMA. The I² value of OW, OB, and OWB were 76.1%, 83.5%, and 97.1%, respectively. Only OWB in men had a I² value below 50% (22.5%) and showed a statistical significance with inverse association (summary relative risk, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 0.81).

Conclusion

This MEMA supported the hypothesis that OW might be a protective factor in gastric cancer risk in Asian adults. It will be necessary to conduct additional cohort studies with lengthening follow-up periods and re-analyzing the effect of overweight and obesity classified by the Asian criteria.

Introduction of Vaccinomics to Develop Personalized Vaccines in Light of Changes in the Usage of Hantaan Virus Vaccine (Hantavax®) in Korea

The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety of Korea made an official announcement in March 2018 that the total number of inoculations of Hantaan virus vaccine (Hantavax^®) would change from 3 to 4. Some aspects of this decision remain controversial. Based on the characteristics of Hantaan virus (HTNV) and its role in the pathogenesis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, it might be difficult to develop an effective and safe HTNV vaccine through the isolate-inactivate-inject paradigm. With the development of high-throughput ‘omics’ technologies in the 21st century, vaccinomics has been introduced. While the goal of vaccinomics is to develop equations to describe and predict the immune response, it could also serve as a tool for developing new vaccine candidates and individualized approaches to vaccinology. Thus, the possibility of applying the innovative field of vaccinomics to develop a more effective and safer HTNV vaccine should be considered.

Proposal to Revise the Screening Test for Latent Tuberculosis Infection in Close Contacts at Elementary Schools in Korea

The 2018 National Guideline for Tuberculosis Control, which was published by the Korea Centers for Diseases Prevention and Control (KCDC), mandates conducting an epidemiological survey among close contacts of active tuberculosis patients at public institutions such as schools. In the procedure for these surveys, the tuberculin skin test (TST) is mandated as the screening test for latent tuberculosis infection in elementary school students. However, several guidelines recommend using the interferon-gamma releasing assay (IGRA) for contacts aged over 5 years with a Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination history. The main reason for this is that IGRA has a higher specificity and lower false positive rate than TST. In addition, IGRA requires only a single visit to draw blood and the results are available within 24 hours. These advantages could promote cooperation from both parents and students in conducting these surveys. Thus, these findings regarding the benefits of IGRA for surveys of close contacts at elementary schools should be incorporated into the KCDC guideline.

Incidence of Scarlet Fever in Children in Jeju Province, Korea, 2002-2016: An Age-period-cohort Analysis

Objectives:

Outbreaks of scarlet fever in Mexico in 1999, Hong Kong and mainland China in 2011, and England in 2014-2016 have received global attention, and the number of notified cases in Korean children, including in Jeju Province, has also increased since 2010. To identify relevant hypotheses regarding this emerging outbreak, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of scarlet fever incidence was conducted among children in Jeju Province, Korea.

Methods:

This study analyzed data from the nationwide insurance claims database administered by the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The inclusion criteria were children aged ≤14 years residing in Jeju Province, Korea who received any form of healthcare for scarlet fever from 2002 to 2016. The age and year variables were categorized into 5 groups, respectively. After calculating the crude incidence rate (CIR) for age and calendar year groups, the intrinsic estimator (IE) method was applied to conduct the APC analysis.

Results:

In total, 2345 cases were identified from 2002 to 2016. Scarlet fever was most common in the 0-2 age group, and boys presented more cases than girls. Since the CIR decreased with age between 2002 and 2016, the age and period effect decreased in all observed years. The IE coefficients suggesting a cohort effect shifted from negative to positive in 2009.

Conclusions:

The results suggest that the recent outbreak of scarlet fever among children in Jeju Province might be explained through the cohort effect. As children born after 2009 showed a higher risk of scarlet fever, further descriptive epidemiological studies are needed.

Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of Confirmed Cases of Severe Fever With Thrombocytopenia Syndrome in Jeju Province, Korea, 2014-2018

Objectives:

Jeju Province is well known as the region showing the highest incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) in South Korea. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of SFTS patients in Jeju Province.

Methods:

The primary data for this study were obtained from the Integrated Diseases and Health Control System of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDCIS). The selection criteria were confirmed cases of SFTS with a residence listed in Jeju Province at the time of diagnosis, reported to the KCDCIS between July 16, 2014 and November 30, 2018.

Results:

Of 55 confirmed cases of SFTS, the case fatality rate was 10.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 22.2). The most common presenting symptoms at diagnosis of severe fever, myalgia, and diarrhea had incidences of 83.6% (95% Cl, 71.2 to 92.2), 45.5% (95% Cl, 32.0 to 59.5), and 40.0% (95% CI, 27.0 to 54.1), respectively.

Conclusions:

Compared to SFTS patients nationwide in 2013-2015, the subjects of this study exhibited a lower case fatality rate and had a lower incidence of severe fever, myalgia, and confusion.

Notified Incidence of Tuberculosis in Foreign-born Individuals in Jeju Province, Republic of Korea

Objectives

In the Republic of Korea (ROK), the notified incidence of tuberculosis in foreign-born individuals (NITFBI) has increased recently, as has the rate of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and rifampicin-resistant (RR) tuberculosis in foreigners staying in the ROK. As Jeju Province in ROK has a no-visa entry policy, control programs for NITFBI should be consolidated. The aim was to evaluate the status of NITFBI, with a focus on the distribution of MDR/RR tuberculosis by nationality.

Methods

Data on tuberculosis incidence in individuals born in Jeju Province and in foreign-born individuals were extracted from the Korean Statistical Information Service of Statistics Korea, and the Infectious Disease Surveillance Web Statistics of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, respectively.

Results

Among all notified incident cases of tuberculosis, the proportion of NITFBI increased from 1.46% in 2011 to 6.84% in 2017. China- and Vietnam-born individuals accounted for the greatest proportion of the 95 cases of NITFBI. Seven cases of MDR/RR tuberculosis were found, all involving patients born in China.

Conclusions

In Jeju Province, ROK, NITFBI might become more common in the near future. Countermeasures for controlling active tuberculosis in immigrants born in high-risk nations for tuberculosis should be prepared in Jeju Province, since it is a popular tourist destination.

Incidence of varicella in children in Jeju-do, Korea, 2005-2016: age-period-cohort analysis

OBJECTIVES

Although the nationwide inoculation rate of varicella vaccine was approximately 95% in Korean children recently, the number of notified varicella cases is unexpectedly continuously increasing till now. To suggest some hypotheses regarding this discrepancy, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis as a descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for children residing in Jeju-do, Korea.

METHODS

The raw data were obtained from the nationwide database for insurance claim of healthcare fee provided by the National Health Insurance Service, Korea. The selection criteria were children aged 2-13 years who visited any healthcare center due to varicella from 2005 to 2016 while residing in Jeju-do. After calculating the birth cohort-specific crude incidence rates by age and year, the intrinsic estimator method was used to perform the APC analysis.

RESULTS

As the annual crude incidence rates decreased with increasing age between 2005 and 2016, the age and period effects also decreased. The intrinsic estimator coefficients suggesting the cohort effect shifted from positive to negative in 2011, the starting year of free varicella vaccine program in Jeju-do.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggested that inoculated varicella vaccines have preventive effects. However, further studies to evaluate waning immunity would be needed.

Introduction of Phylodynamics for Controlling the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Korea

As over 1000 new cases of HIV/AIDS occur in Korea annually, preventive health programs against HIV/AIDS are urgently needed. Since phylodynamic studies have been suggested as a way to understand how infectious diseases are transmitted and evolve, phylodynamic inferences can be a useful tool for HIV/AIDS research. In particular, phylodynamic models are helpful for dating the origins of an epidemic and estimating its basic reproduction number. Thus, the introduction of phylodynamics would be a highly valuable step towards controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Korea.

Seasonality of tuberculosis in the Republic of Korea, 2006-2016

OBJECTIVES

While the seasonality of notified tuberculosis has been identified in several populations, there is not a descriptive epidemiological study on the seasonality of tuberculosis in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the seasonality of tuberculosis in Korea from 2006 to 2016.

METHODS

Data regarding notified cases of tuberculosis by year and month was obtained from the Infectious Diseases Surveillance Yearbook, 2017 published by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Seasonal decomposition was conducted using the method of structural model of time series analysis with simple moving averages.

RESULTS

While the trough season was winter from 2006 to 2016, the peak season was summer between 2006 and 2012, but shifted to spring between 2013 and 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

Notified tuberculosis in Korea also showed seasonality. It is necessary to evaluate factors related to the seasonality of tuberculosis for controlling tuberculosis.

Ethical, pedagogical, socio-political and anthropological implications of quaternary prevention

The concept of quaternary prevention, resulting from a reflection on the doctor-patient relationship, is presented as a renewal of the age-old ethical requirement: first, a doctor must do no harm; second, the doctor must control himself/herself. The origin of the concept, its endorsement by the World Organization of Family Doctors (WONCA) and the European Union of General Practitioners (UEMO), its dissemination, and the debates to which it has given rise, are presented by a panel of authors from 10 countries. This collective text deals more specifically with: the bioethics of prevention, the importance of teaching Quaternary prevention and factual medicine, the social and political implications of the concept of quaternary prevention, and its anthropological dimensions.

Prophylactic efficacy of probiotics on travelers' diarrhea: an adaptive meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVES

The 2017 guideline for the prevention of travelers’ diarrhea (TD) by the International Society of Travel Medicine suggested that ‘there is insufficient evidence to recommend the use of commercially available prebiotics or probiotics to prevent or treat TD.’ However, a meta-analysis published in 2007 reported significant efficacy of probiotics in the prevention of TD (summary relative risk [sRR], 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79 to 0.91). This study aimed to synthesize the efficacy of probiotics on TD by updating the meta-analysis of double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized human trials.

METHODS

The search process was conducted by the adaptive meta-analysis method using the ‘cited by’ and ‘similar articles’ options provided by PubMed. The inclusion criteria were double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized human trials with hypotheses of probiotics as intervention and TD as an outcome. The adaptive meta-analysis was conducted using Stata software using the csi, metan, metafunnel, and metabias options.

RESULTS

Eleven articles were selected for the meta-analysis. The sRR was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.91) and showed statistical significance. There was no heterogeneity (I-squared=28.4%) and no publication bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Probiotics showed statistically significant efficacy in the prevention of TD.

Horses as a Potential Reservoir of Lyme Borreliosis in Jeju-do, Korea

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-borne infectious disease in North America, and it was designated as a national notifiable infectious disease in Korea in December 2010. While no cases in Jeju-do were recorded from 2012 to 2016, a recent survey reported that the seroprevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays in horses in Jeju-do was 19.0% (95% confidence interval, 12.0 to 28.3%). This fact suggests that horses may be a potential reservoir of LB in Jeju-do and that individuals in close contact with horses may be a high-risk group. Thus, a serological study in this high-risk group is urgently needed.

Vitamin D supplementation as a control program against latent tuberculosis infection in Korean high school students

The prevalence of latnet Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in the first-grade high school students in South Korea was 2.1%, which was the lowest level at congregated settings in 2017. For LTBI cases refusing anti-tuberculosis (TB) medication or having poor compliance, additional support should be considered. Eight systematic reviews concluded that vitamin D (VD) deficiency is a risk factor for TB. While three of four South Korean adolescents were VD deficiency, VD supplementation could be a practical remedy to protect LTBI students of refusing anti-TB medication or having poor compliance.

Necessity of Epigenetic Epidemiology Studies on the Carcinogenesis of Lung Cancer in Never Smokers

Based on epidemiological and genomic characteristics, lung cancer in never smokers (LCNS) is a different disease from lung cancer in smokers. Based on current research, the main risk factor for LCNS may be air pollution. A recent case-control study in Koreans reported that nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) may be a risk factor for LCNS. Additionally, a cohort study showed that exposure to NO₂ was associated with significant hypomethylation. Thus, epigenetic epidemiology studies are needed in the near future to evaluate the carcinogenesis of LCNS according to chronic exposure to air pollution and/or viral infections.

Researches of Epigenetic Epidemiology for Infections and Radiation as Carcinogen

In recent years, a number of studies have been reported on the various types of cancer arising from epigenetic alterations, including reports that these epigenetic alterations occur as a result of radiation exposure or infection. Thyroid cancer and breast cancer, in particular, have high cancer burden, and it has been confirmed that radiation exposure or onco-viral infection are linked to increased risk of development of these two types of cancer, respectively. Thus, the environment-epigenetic alteration-cancer occurrence (EEC) hypothesis has been suggested. This paper reviews the trends in research supporting this hypothesis for radiation exposure and onco-viral infection. If more evidences accumulate for the EEC hypothesis from future research, those findings may greatly aid in the prevention, early diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of the thyroid cancer and breast cancer.

Incidence of psoriasiform diseases secondary to tumour necrosis factor antagonists in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

There are increasing reports of paradoxical psoriasiform diseases secondary to anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents.

AIMS

To determine the risks of paradoxical psoriasiform diseases secondary to anti-TNF agents in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

METHODS

A nationwide population study was performed using the Korea National Health Insurance Claim Data. A total of 50 502 patients with IBD were identified between 2007 and 2016. We compared 5428 patients who were treated with any anti-TNF agent for more than 6 months (anti-TNF group) and 10 856 matched controls who had never taken anti-TNF agents (control group).

RESULTS

Incidence of psoriasis was significantly higher in the anti-TNF group (36.8 per 10 000 person-years) compared to the control group (14.5 per 10 000 person-years) (hazard ratio [HR] 2.357, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.668-3.331). Palmoplantar pustulosis (HR 9.355, 95% CI 2.754-31.780) and psoriatic arthritis (HR 2.926, 95% CI 1.640-5.218) also showed higher risks in the anti-TNF group. In subgroup analyses, HRs for psoriasis by IBD subtype were 2.549 (95% CI 1.658-3.920) in Crohn's disease and 2.105 (95% CI 1.155-3.836) in ulcerative colitis. Interestingly, men and younger (10-39 years) patients have significantly higher risks of palmoplantar pustulosis (HR 19.682 [95% CI 3.867-100.169] and HR 14.318 [95% CI 2.915-70.315], respectively), whereas women and older (≥40 years) patients showed similar rates between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The risks of psoriasiform diseases are increased by anti-TNF agents in patients with IBD. Among psoriasiform diseases, the risk of palmoplantar pustulosis shows the biggest increase particularly in male and younger patients.

Interpretation of the hygiene and microflora hypothesis for allergic diseases through epigenetic epidemiology

The hygiene hypothesis (HH) proposed by Strachan in 1989 was expanded to explain the inverse association between the occurrence of allergy disorders and the risk of infectious diseases and parasite infestation. The microflora hypothesis (MH) suggests that gut microbial dysbiosis in early life might trigger hypersensitivity disorders. The sharing concept of both HH and MH is gene-environment interaction, which is also a key concept in epigenetics. The amalgamation of epidemiology and epigenetics has created a scientific discipline termed epigenetic epidemiology. To accomplish an era of gene-environment-wide interaction studies, it is necessary to launch a national human epigenome project.

[Ethical, pedagogical, socio-political and anthropological implications of quaternary prevention]

The concept of quaternary prevention, resulting from a reflection on the doctor-patient relationship, is presented as a renewal of the ageold ethical requirement: first, a doctor must not harm; second, the doctor must control himself/herself. The origin of the concept, its endorsement by the World Organization of Family Doctors (WONCA) and the European Union of General Practitioners (UEMO), its dissemination, and the debates to which it has given rise, are presented by a panel of authors from 12 countries and 3 continents. This collective text deals more specifically with the ethics of prevention, the importance of teaching Quaternary prevention and Evidence Based Medicine, the social and political implications of the concept of quaternary prevention, and its anthropological dimensions.

Vaccination history in elementary school children enrolled in the varicella epidemic investigations held in Jeju-si, Korea in the first half of 2017

OBJECTIVES

The reported incidence rate of varicella infection in Jeju-do is higher compared with the national average. This study aimed to examine varicella vaccination history and evaluate clinical manifestation of varicella cases in Jeju-do.

METHODS

Based on the guideline suggested by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), two epidemic investigations for varicella infection were conducted in the first half of 2017. The history of varicella vaccination was confirmed using the Integrated Control System for Diseases and Health operated by the KCDC.

RESULTS

Out of a total of 60 elementary school children as the study subjects, all had been previously vaccinated against varicella. Twenty cases (33%) showed mild clinical manifestations and no complications.

CONCLUSIONS

As the government of Jeju-do has supplied a single-labeled vaccine since 2011, there is a need to evaluate the type of vaccination failure such as primary or secondary.

Shared decision making: relevant concepts and facilitating strategies

As the paradigm in healthcare nowadays is the evidence-based, patient-centered decision making, the issue of shared decision making (SDM) is highlighted. The aims of this manuscript were to look at the relevant concepts and suggest the facilitating strategies for overcoming barriers of conducting SDM. While the definitions of SDM were discordant, several concepts such as good communication, individual autonomy, patient participants, and patient-centered decision-making were involved. Further, the facilitating strategies of SDM were to educate and train physician, to apply clinical practice guidelines and patient decision aids, to develop valid measurement tools for evaluation of SDM processes, and to investigate the impact of SDM.

Network meta-analysis: application and practice using Stata

This review aimed to arrange the concepts of a network meta-analysis (NMA) and to demonstrate the analytical process of NMA using Stata software under frequentist framework. The NMA tries to synthesize evidences for a decision making by evaluating the comparative effectiveness of more than two alternative interventions for the same condition. Before conducting a NMA, 3 major assumptions—similarity, transitivity, and consistency—should be checked. The statistical analysis consists of 5 steps. The first step is to draw a network geometry to provide an overview of the network relationship. The second step checks the assumption of consistency. The third step is to make the network forest plot or interval plot in order to illustrate the summary size of comparative effectiveness among various interventions. The fourth step calculates cumulative rankings for identifying superiority among interventions. The last step evaluates publication bias or effect modifiers for a valid inference from results. The synthesized evidences through five steps would be very useful to evidence-based decision-making in healthcare. Thus, NMA should be activated in order to guarantee the quality of healthcare system.