Mass, Spectroscopy, and Two-Neutron Decay of ^{16}Be

The structure and decay of the most neutron-rich beryllium isotope, ^{16}Be, has been investigated following proton knockout from a high-energy ^{17}B beam. Two relatively narrow resonances were observed for the first time, with energies of 0.84(3) and 2.15(5) MeV above the two-neutron decay threshold and widths of 0.32(8) and 0.95(15) MeV, respectively. These were assigned to be the ground (J^{π}=0^{+}) and first excited (2^{+}) state, with E_{x}=1.31(6)  MeV. The mass excess of ^{16}Be was thus deduced to be 56.93(13) MeV, some 0.5 MeV more bound than the only previous measurement. Both states were observed to decay by direct two-neutron emission. Calculations incorporating the evolution of the wave function during the decay as a genuine three-body process reproduced the principal characteristics of the neutron-neutron energy spectra for both levels, indicating that the ground state exhibits a strong spatially compact dineutron component, while the 2^{+} level presents a far more diffuse neutron-neutron distribution.

Quantitative risk assessment of introduction of BVDV and BoHV-1 through indirect contacts based on implemented biosecurity measures in dairy farms of Spain

A stochastic quantitative risk assessment model was developed to estimate the annual probability of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) and bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) on 127 dairy farms through indirect contacts. Vehicles transporting calves, cattle to slaughterhouse, dead animals, and mixture of feed, as well as visits by veterinarians and hoof trimmers, farm workers and contacts with neighbors were considered in the model. Data from biosecurity questionnaires of each farm, scientific literature and expert opinion from field veterinarians, animal vehicle drivers, hoof trimmers and personnel from rendering transport companies were used to estimate values for input parameters. Results showed that the annual probability of introducing BVDV or BoHV-1 through indirect contacts was very heterogeneous. The overall distribution of median values for each farm ranged from 0.5 to 14.6% and from 1.0 to 24.9% for BVDV and BoHV-1, respectively. The model identified that providing protective clothing and boots to visits, not allowing the animal vehicle driver to come into contact with animals present on the farm and ensuring that calf vehicles arrived empty, were the measures with the highest impact on the probability of infection for most farms. This model could be a useful tool to show the impact of the measures to farmers and veterinarians, thus increasing their awareness on biosecurity. In addition, it could support decision making on which measures should be prioritized in dairy cattle herds to reduce the probability of introduction of diseases.

Short communication: Risk factors associated with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis introduction into dairy herds in Galicia, northwestern Spain

This study assessed potential risk factors associated with introduction of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) into dairy cattle herds in the Galicia region, northwestern Spain. The study was carried out with data collected from 93 dairies enrolled in a voluntary MAP control program. Information on potential risk factors was obtained through personal interviews with the farmers and veterinarians in charge of the control program of each farm. In addition, blood samples were taken annually over 2 years from cows on the farms in the program, and analyzed with a commercial ELISA to detect antibodies to MAP. Fecal samples of all ELISA-positive cows were analyzed using PCR. Based on χ² test and Fisher's exact test, purchase practices, shared manure truck, shared materials, and visitors per month who contacted animals were found to be significantly associated with farm MAP infection status. Multiple logistic regression indicated that purchase practices and herd size (included as a potential confounder) are the variables that best predict MAP status.

Development of a quantitative risk assessment of bovine viral diarrhea virus and bovine herpesvirus-1 introduction in dairy cattle herds to improve biosecurity

A quantitative risk assessment model was developed to estimate the annual probability of introducing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) and bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) at the farm level through animal movements. Data from 2017 official animal movements, biosecurity questionnaires, scientific literature, and expert opinion from field veterinarians were taken into consideration for model input parameters. Purchasing or introducing cattle, rearing replacement heifers offsite, showing cattle at competitions, sharing transport vehicles with other herds, and transporting cattle in vehicles that have not been cleaned and disinfected were considered in the model. The annual probability of introducing BVDV or BoHV-1 through infected animals was very heterogeneous between farms. The median likelihoods of BVDV and BoHV-1introduction were 12 and 9%, respectively. Farms that purchased cattle from within their region (i.e., local movements) and shared transport with other farms had a higher probability for BVDV and BoHV-1 introduction. This model can be a useful tool to support decision-making on biosecurity measures that should be prioritized to reduce the probability of introduction of these 2 diseases in dairy herds.

Changes in Pulmonary Function in Patients With Advanced Heart Failure Listed for Heart Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) are often impaired in patients with advanced heart failure. There is limited data about their impact on survival after heart transplantation (HT). We sought to assess the prevalence and type of PFT abnormalities in patients on HT waiting list and their impact on outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of a prospective registry of consecutive patients undergoing HT between 2012 and 2018. Patients were classified into 4 groups according to pre-HT PFT results: 1. normal pattern: forced vital capacity (FVC) ≥ 80% and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁) to FVC ratio (FEV₁/FVC) ≥ 0.7; 2. obstructive: FEV₁/FVC < 0.7; 3. nonobstructive: FEV₁/FVC ≥ 0.7 and FVC < 80% when total lung capacity value was not available; and 4. restrictive: FEV₁/FVC ≥ 0.7 and total lung capacity < 80%. The prevalence of impaired carbon monoxide diffusing capacity corrected for hemoglobin < 80% and FEV₁ < 70% was also analyzed. High-urgency HT patients and those referred from other centers without quantitative pulmonary evaluation were excluded.

RESULTS

Among 123 patients who underwent HT, 83 patients with complete PFT were included. Median follow-up was 2.7 ± 1.9 years. Of these, 29 (34.9%) had an obstructive pattern, 20 (24.1%) a nonobstructive, 18 (21.7%) a restrictive, and 16 (19.3%) a normal pattern. Fifty-one (61.4%) patients had FEV₁ < 70% and 58 (69.9%) a carbon monoxide diffusing capacity corrected for hemoglobin < 80%. There was a tendency to lower survival in all altered PFT groups compared with normal (P = .054) but not within the other groups. Patients with an impaired FEV₁ had significantly higher mortality than patients with normal values (P = .008). Area under receiver operating characteristic curve for FEV₁ was 0.73 (95% confidence interval [0.60-0.86]). A cutoff value of FEV₁ (60.5) predicts mortality with 66% sensitivity and 64% specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

PFT alterations have a very high prevalence on HT waiting list patients. Patients with impaired FEV₁ had worse outcomes after heart transplantation.

Three-body description of 12C: From the hyperspherical formulation to the algebraic cluster model and its application to α + 12C inelasticscattering

Form factors for α+12C inelastic scattering are obtained within two theoretical (α+α+α) approaches:The hyperspherical framework for three identical bosons, and the algebraic cluster model assuming the D3h symmetry of an equilateral triangle subject to rotations and vibrations. Results show a good agreement, with form factors involving the Hoyle state having a slightly larger extension within the hyperspherical approach. Coupled-channel calculations using these form factors are ongoing.

Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds

In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the "Within-herd transmission potential Number" (R_h), i.e. the average number of secondary cases generated by a single animal infected introduced into a totally susceptible herd, considering different scenarios depending on the frequency of controls. The median global values obtained for the transmission parameters were: for the transmission coefficient (β), 0.014 newly infected animals per infectious individual per day (i.e. 5.2 per year), for the rate at which infected individuals become infectious (α), 0.01 per day (equivalent to a latent period of 97 days), and for the rate at which infected individuals become reactive to the skin test (α₁), 0.08 per day (equivalent to a period of 12 days for an infected animal to become reactive). However, the results also evidenced a great variability in the estimates of those parameters (in particular β and α) among the 22 herds. Considering a 6-month interval between tests, the mean R_h was 0.23, increasing to 0.82 with an interval of 1 year, and to 2.01 and 3.47 with testing intervals of 2 and 4 years, respectively.

Rural veterinarian's perception and practices in terms of biosecurity across three European countries

The implementation of biosecurity measures in the animal health and production context is quite broad and aims at limiting the risk of introduction and spread of diseases. Veterinarians play a major role in biosecurity as key informants on the subject for cattle holders, key players in terms of disease prevention/control and eradication programs, as well as key risk factor in terms of disease dissemination. Many biosecurity studies have highlighted professional visitors such as veterinary practitioners as representing a high-risk factor in terms of disease introduction in animal facilities but, to date, very few studies have focused on the implementation level of biosecurity measures by veterinarians. An online survey was implemented in three European countries (Belgium, France and Spain) to assess the behaviour of rural veterinarians towards biosecurity, as well as their implementation level of the biosecurity measures. A descriptive analysis of data and a scoring system were applied to assess the implementation level of measures. The influence of different factors on the implementation level of biosecurity measures was investigated through a negative binomial regression model. The study identified different strengths, weaknesses, possible constraints and solutions in terms of veterinary perspectives. Veterinarians are considered as key informants by the farmers and could therefore play a more active role in terms of guidance and improvement of biosecurity at farm level. Based on the survey outcomes, two factors seemed to influence significantly the implementation level of measures: the country where he/she practices and the veterinarian's perception level of biosecurity. The biosecurity stages with the lowest application level, therefore representing the biggest threats, were bio-exclusion (increasing the risk of disease introduction) and biocontainment (increasing the risk of inter-herd transmission).

Epidemiological survey of brucellosis in sheep and goats in selected pastoral and agro-pastoral lowlands of Ethiopia

An epidemiological survey was conducted in pastoral regions of Ethiopia to investigate the distribution of brucellosis in sheep and goats. Between November 2004 and December 2007, a total of 6,201 serum samples were collected from 67 randomly selected peasant associations, 25 districts and eight pastoral zones of Ethiopia. The Rose Bengal plate test (RBPT) and complement fixation test were used in series. Samples for bacteriology were collected from three export abattoirs, where 285 goats were randomly selected and tested by RBPTthree days before slaughter. Tissue samples were collected from 14 strongly positive goats and cultured in dextrose agar and Brucella agar base. To confirm and subtype the isolates, staining, biochemical tests and polymerase chain reaction were used. The overall standardised seroprevalence of brucellosis was 1.9%, ranging from 0.07% in Jijiga zone to 3.3% in Borena zone. There was statistically significant variation among the studied regions, zones, districts and peasant associations (p < 0.05). Male goats and sheep were twice as likely to test positive as females (relative risk [RRJ: 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.7-3.4; x2 = 21.05, p < 0.05). Adults (older than 1.5 years) were three times more likely to test positive than younger animals (RR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.14-6.73; chi2 = 5.18, p < 0.05). Goats were around four times more likely to be infected than sheep (RR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.4-6.1; chi2 = 36.99, p < 0.05). Brucella melitensis was isolated from 2 of the 14 samples analysed. The widespread distribution of brucellosis in goats and sheep in these areas justifies the use of control measures to minimise the economic losses and public health hazards.

Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1) Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia) in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees

Andalusia (Southern Spain) is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV) into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (R_t), defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0). Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The R_t value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8), and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci), which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of R_t by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day) in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C) there was a positive correlation between temperature and R_t values, although the relationship was not linear, probably as a result of the complex relationship between temperature and the different parameters affecting BTV transmission. R_t values for BTV-1 in Andalusia fell below the threshold of 1 when temperatures dropped below 21°C, a much higher threshold than that reported in other BTV outbreaks, such as the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe. This divergence may be explained by differences in the adaptation to temperature of the main vectors of the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia (Culicoides imicola) compared those of the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe (Culicoides obsoletus). Importantly, we found that BTV transmission (R_t value) increased significantly in areas with higher densities of sheep. Our analysis also established that control of BTV-1 in Andalusia was complicated by the simultaneous establishment of several distant foci at the start of the epidemic, which may have been caused by several independent introductions of infected vectors from the North of Africa. We discuss the implications of these findings for BTV surveillance and control in this region of Europe.

Distribution and genetic characterization of Enterovirus G and Sapelovirus A in six Spanish swine herds

The prevalence of Enterovirus G (EV-G) and Sapelovirus A (PSV-1) was investigated in Spanish swine herds by means of cross-sectional studies. Faecal samples from clinically healthy pigs were collected from six farms, and analysed by RT-PCR. The results indicated a high prevalence of EV-G detected in nearly all the animals older than 3 weeks of age. Otherwise, PSV-1 was only detected in 3-week-old piglets from one of the farms. Genetic analyses performed in the VP1 region of the EV-G indicated circulation of diverse strains in the same farm, related to genotypes G1, G2, G3, G4, G6, G9, G12, G13 and G14. Moreover, co-infection of several PSV-1 variants in the same animal was evident, typical of viral quasispecies. Evolutionary pressure analysis indicated that microevolution of PSV-1 seems to be driven by negative selection. This study gives further insights in the epidemiology of EV-G and PSV-1.

Phase II study of first-line biweekly docetaxel and cisplatin combination chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer

PURPOSE

Previous studies have shown that docetaxel and cisplatin, as single agents, are effective and relatively well tolerated in patients with advanced gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to assess efficacy and toxicity of a biweekly regimen of docetaxel plus cisplatin in patients with advanced gastric cancer.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Fifty-five patients with histologically proven advanced gastric cancer with at least 1 measurable lesion and ECOG PS ≤ 2 were enrolled. Patients received docetaxel 50 mg/m(2) and cisplatin 50 mg/m(2) every 2 weeks until progression disease, unbearable toxicity or a maximum of 12 cycles.

RESULTS

In total, 426 cycles were administered (median 8.5 cycles) to 52 evaluable patients. One patient (1.9 %) showed a complete response, while 21 (40.4 %) had partial responses. The objective response rate was 42.3 % (95 % CI 28.9-55.7), the median time to progression was 5.5 months (95 % CI 4.0-7.0), and the median overall survival was 8.9 months (95 % CI 6.0-11.9). The most common grade 3-4 toxicities per cycle were haematological [neutropenia (5.9 %)].

CONCLUSIONS

Biweekly administration of docetaxel and cisplatin in advanced gastric cancer has a manageable toxicity profile and shows a promising antitumour activity as a first-line therapy.

Final results of a phase II study of paclitaxel, bevacizumab, and gemcitabine as first-line therapy for patients with HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Efficacy and safety data for combining bevacizumab, gemcitabine, and paclitaxel for locally advanced/metastatic breast cancer are limited.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

AVALUZ trial evaluates the combination of bevacizumab 10 mg/kg, gemcitabine 2,000 mg/m(2) plus paclitaxel 150 mg/m(2), on days 1 and 15 of each 28-day course in previously untreated HER-2 negative patients.

RESULTS

Median progression-free survival (PES): 12.3 months. The overall response and clinical benefit rate (CR + PR + SD) were 72 % (95 % CI 60.9-82.0 %) and 89 % (95 % CI 80.3-95.3 %), respectively. Median overall survival: 27.4 mo. Baseline circulating tumor cell (CTCs) ≥2 versus CTCs <2 was associated with lower PFS, p = 0.046. Overall response was significantly greater in patients with intense angiotensin type 1 receptor (AGTR1) expression (99 vs. 60 % [p = 0.021]). The most frequent grade 3/4 adverse events were: neutropenia (10 %); febrile neutropenia (1 %); sensory neuropathy (13 %); and asthenia (6 %). Grade 3 adverse events of interest with bevacizumab included bleeding (1 %) and hypertension (4 %). One patient developed cardiac ischemia (1 %).

CONCLUSIONS

Adding bevacizumab to chemotherapy appeared feasible and well tolerated, producing toxicity comparable to other effective combined first-line regimens. Baseline circulating endothelial cells and AGTR1 expression are predictive of PFS and response.

Fuzzy model for risk assessment of persistent organic pollutants in aquatic ecosystems

We developed a model for evaluating the environmental risk of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to aquatic organisms. The model is based on fuzzy theory and uses information provided by international experts through a questionnaire. It has been tested in two case studies for a particular type of POPs: brominated flame retardants (BFRs). The first case study is related to the EU-funded AQUATERRA project, with sampling campaigns carried out in two Ebro tributaries in Spain (the Cinca and Vero Rivers). The second one, named the BROMACUA project, assessed different aquatic ecosystems in Chile (San Vicente Bay) and Colombia (Santa Marta Marsh). In both projects, the BFRs under study were polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). However, the model can be extrapolated to other POPs and to different aquatic ecosystems to provide useful results for decision-makers.

Ecological surveillance for West Nile in Catalonia (Spain), learning from a five-year period of follow-up

To enhance early detection of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission, an integrated ecological surveillance system was implemented in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain) from 2007 to 2011. This system incorporated passive and active equine surveillance, periodical testing of chicken sentinels in wetland areas, serosurveillance wild birds and testing of adult mosquitoes. Samples from 298 equines, 100 sentinel chickens, 1086 wild birds and 39 599 mosquitoes were analysed. During these 5 years, no acute WNV infection was detected in humans or domestic animal populations in Catalonia. WNV was not detected in mosquitoes either. Nevertheless, several seroconversions in resident and migrant wild birds indicate that local WNV or other closely related flaviviruses transmission was occurring among bird populations. These data indicate that bird and mosquito surveillance can detect otherwise silent transmission of flaviviruses and give some insights regarding possible avian hosts and vectors in a European setting.

Assessment of the risk of a bluetongue outbreak in Europe caused by Culicoides midges introduced through intracontinental transport and trade networks

The importation of infected hosts and the arrival of windborne infected Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were considered unlikely mechanisms for bluetongue virus (BTV) incursion into a BTV-free area during the recent BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in northern Europe. Therefore, alternative mechanisms need to be considered. Air, sea and land transport networks continue to expand, and an important consequence of this is vector-borne pathogen importation. One important aspect of bluetongue (BT) epidemiology not yet addressed is the potential movement of infected Culicoides via transport and trade networks. Therefore, a risk assessment model was constructed to assess the probability of a BTV outbreak as a consequence of the introduction of Culicoides via these networks. The model was applied to calculate the risk for a BTV-8 epidemic in Spain in 2007 caused by the introduction of Culicoides from affected northern European countries. The mean weighted annual risk for an outbreak caused by transportation of a single vector from an affected northern European country varied from 1.8 × 10(-7) to 3.0 × 10(-13), with the highest risks associated with Culicoides imported from Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France. For this mechanism to pose a significant risk to BTV-free countries, a large number of vectors would have to be transported.

Abstract P2-16-13: Phase II Open Label Trial Bevacizumab in Combination with Paclitaxel and Gemcitabine as First Line in Patients with HER-2 Negative Recurrent or Metastatic Breast Cancer (AVALUZ): First Analysis

Background:

The combination of bevacizumab with taxanes, capecitabine or anthracyclines has shown increased progression-free survival in patients with metastatic breast carcinoma. The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy and toxicity profile of the combination of bevacizumab with gemcitabine and paclitaxel, providing a preliminary analysis of response in patients included for whom at least one response assessment and the toxicity experienced in all patients treated.

Methods:

A Phase II multicenter, national, open-label study in patients diagnosed of recurrent or metastatic HER-2 negative breast carcinoma, treated with first-line bevacizumab 10 mg/kg, paclitaxel 150 mg/m2 and gemcitabine 2000 mg/m2 day 1 and 15 c/28d until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, or medical decision. This abstract evaluates efficacy by the response rate and the toxicity profile of the combination in all cycles of all patients included. The primary end-point of the study is PFS. Toxicity is evaluated according to NCI CTC v 3.0 criteria. Results:

From January 2009 to December 2009, 82 evaluable patients were recruited in 23 sites, with at least one response assessment available in 69. Median age 51.5 (26-81), ER+ 59 pts, PR+ 51 pts, triple negative patients 16 and previous chemotherapy (neoadj or adj) 58 pts. Of the 69 pts with response assessment, the last assessment is in cycle 3 for 31.88% of patients, cycle 6: 33.33%, cycle 9: 4.35%, cycle 12: 1.45% and at the end of treatment 29%. The median cycles administered per patient is 6 (1-14) and the relative median dose intensity is 0.93 for bevacizumab, 0.91 for paclitaxel, and 0.93 for gemcitabine.

The overall response obtained was 69.57%, with a clinical benefit of 89.86% (CR 8.7% (6), PR 60.87% (42), SD 20.29%, and DP 10.14%). Of the 82 patients with a median follow-up of 7.19 m (0.16-13.98), grade 3-4 toxicity affected 41%, with treatment discontinuation for adverse events in 19.51%. Eighteen SAEs were reported: pyrexia (4), infection at catheter site (2), urine infection and a single case of angor, hypertension, pulmonary embolism, pleural effusion, febrile neutropenia, neutropenia, vomiting, diarrhoea, dehydration, atrial fibrillation, and dizziness. Toxicity was generally easily controlled. Conclusions:

Although data from the primary study endpoint (PFS) are not yet available, the treatment regimen obtained a high overall response in patients treated and was well tolerated by this patient group.

Citation Information: Cancer Res 2010;70(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-16-13.

Monitoring bluetongue disease (BTV-1) epidemic in southern Spain during 2007

On the 25th of July 2007, bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 1 was detected in Andalusia, southern Spain for the first time. A total of 4436 farms infected with BTV-1 were confirmed during that year: 3162 in sheep flocks, 113 in goat flocks, 7 in cattle herds and 1154 in mixed farms (sheep, goat and/or cattle in the same farm). The most common clinical signs were: fever, depression, lethargy, facial edema, and salivation (observed in more than 70% of the infected farms). Lesions in oral mucosa, lameness and dyspnea were also frequently observed. Median morbidity rate in sheep and goat flocks were 6.3% and 2.7% respectively. Median mortality rate was 2.2% in sheep flocks and 1.2% in goat flocks. Median case fatality rate was 29.8% in sheep flocks and 45% in goat flocks. Morbidity and mortality rates were not significantly higher in sheep flocks than in goat flocks (p>0.05), whereas case fatality rate was significant higher in goat flocks compared to sheep flocks (p<0.05). Neither clinical signs nor mortality were observed in cattle herds. The spatial distribution of the risk of BTV infection over Andalusia by municipality was evaluated by means of a hierarchical Bayesian model. The results evidenced that the risk was not homogeneous over the territory, being higher in the western part of the region. The likelihood of BTV infection was increased between 1.01 and 1.16 times by an increase of 10,000 domestic ruminants, and between 1.01 and 1.69 times by the presence of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in the municipality.

Foot-and-mouth disease in Tanzania from 2001 to 2006

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Tanzania, with outbreaks occurring almost each year in different parts of the country. There is now a strong political desire to control animal diseases as part of national poverty alleviation strategies. However, FMD control requires improving the current knowledge on the disease dynamics and factors related to FMD occurrence so control measures can be implemented more efficiently. The objectives of this study were to describe the FMD dynamics in Tanzania from 2001 to 2006 and investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of transmission. Extraction maps, the space-time K-function and space-time permutation models based on scan statistics were calculated for each year to evaluate the spatial distribution, the spatiotemporal interaction and the spatiotemporal clustering of FMD-affected villages. From 2001 to 2006, 878 FMD outbreaks were reported in 605 different villages of 5815 populated places included in the database. The spatial distribution of FMD outbreaks was concentrated along the Tanzania-Kenya, Tanzania-Zambia borders, and the Kagera basin bordering Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania. The spatiotemporal interaction among FMD-affected villages was statistically significant (P≤0.01) and 12 local spatiotemporal clusters were detected; however, the extent and intensity varied across the study period. Dividing the country in zones according to their epidemiological status will allow improving the control of FMD and delimiting potential FMD-free areas.

Assessment of different surveillance systems for avian influenza in commercial poultry in Catalonia (North-Eastern Spain)

Compulsory surveillance programmes for avian influenza (AI) have been implemented in domestic poultry and wild birds in all the European Member States since 2005. The implementation of these programmes is complex and requires a close evaluation. A good indicator to assess their efficacy is the sensitivity (Se) of the surveillance system. In this study, the sensitivities for different sampling designs proposed by the Spanish authorities for the commercial poultry population of Catalonia were assessed, using the scenario tree model methodology. These samplings were stratified throughout the territory of Spain and took into account the species, the types of production and their specific risks. The probabilities of detecting infection at different prevalences at both individual and holding level were estimated. Furthermore, those subpopulations that contributed more to the Se of the system were identified. The model estimated that all the designs met the requirements of the European Commission. The probability of detecting AI circulating in Catalonian poultry did not change significantly when the within-holding design prevalence varied from 30% to 10%. In contrast, when the among-holding design prevalence decreased from 5% to 1%, the probability of detecting AI was drastically reduced. The sampling of duck and goose holdings, and to a lesser extent the sampling of turkey and game bird holdings, increased the Se substantially. The Se of passive surveillance in chickens for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) were also assessed. The probability of the infected birds manifesting apparent clinical signs and the awareness of veterinarians and farmers had great influence on the probability of detecting AI. In order to increase the probability of an early detection of HPAI in chicken, the probability of performing AI specific tests when AI is suspected would need to be increased.

Bevacizumab (B), cisplatin, and vinorelbine in chemotherapy-naive patients (p) with nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): A Galician Lung Cancer Group phase II study

e19089

Background: Bevacizumab, an anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody, improves response rates and prolongs survival in p with non squamous NSCLC when combined with carboplatin-paclitaxel or cisplatin-gemcitabine. This single-arm, open-labeled phase II trial aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety profile of B in combination with another widely used chemotherapy doublet for NSCLC: cisplatin and vinorelbine. Methods: Chemotherapy-naïve p diagnosed with stage IIIB or IV non squamous NSCLC received cisplatin (80 mg/m2), vinorelbine (25 mg/m2 IV days 1 and 8) and B (15 mg/kg IV) on day 1 every 3 weeks for up to 6 cycles followed by B 15 mg/kg alone every 3 weeks until disease progression. Main eligibility criteria were: PS 0–1, no brain metastases, no history of hemoptysis, stable cardiac condition and no full dose anticoagulation. Primary endpoint was progression-free survival and secondary endpoints were RR, duration of response, OS, 1-year survival and safety profile of the combination. Results: 38 p have been enrolled in the study and data of 27 p have been included in this analysis. P characteristics were: male 66.7%; median age 57 years (range 41–74); ECOG PS 0/1 (%) 33.3/66.7; adenocarcinoma/other (%) 74.1/25.9; stage IIIB/IV (%) 25.9/74.1. Median number of cycles for B/cisplatin/vinorelbine was 4.0 (range 1–6) and median number of cycles for B maintenance was 2 (range 1–4). 17 p were evaluable for response according to RECIST criteria: PR 29.4% and SD 41.2%. With a median follow-up of 3.9 months (range 0.7–11.1), median PFS was 4.6 months (95% CI: 2.6–6.6) and median OS has not been reached yet. Hematological toxicities were: 1 p gr. 3 anemia; 2 p gr. 3 and 2 p gr. 4 leucopenia; 10 p gr. 3, 1 p gr. 4 neutropenia and 3 p febrile neutropenia. Most common grade 3/4 non hematological toxicities were: vomiting (1p gr. 4), high blood pressure, asthenia and hyperglycemia. 1 p experienced gr. 4 abdominal pain, 1 p. gr. 4 constipation, 1 p. gr. 4 nausea and 1 p gr. 4 respiratory infection. No grade 3/4 hemoptysis were reported. Conclusions: This interim analysis shows that B in combination with cisplatin and vinorelbine is safe and well tolerated and has a promising activity in chemo-naïve p with non squamous NSCLC. Survival data will be updated.

[Table: see text]