Developing population models: A systematic approach for pesticide risk assessment using herbaceous plants as an example

Population models are used as tools in species management and conservation and are increasingly recognized as important tools in pesticide risk assessments. A wide variety of population model applications and resources on modeling techniques, evaluation and documentation can be found in the literature. In this paper, we add to these resources by introducing a systematic, transparent approach to developing population models. The decision guide that we propose is intended to help model developers systematically address data availability for their purpose and the steps that need to be taken in any model development. The resulting conceptual model includes the necessary complexity to address the model purpose on the basis of current understanding and available data. We provide specific guidance for the development of population models for herbaceous plant species in pesticide risk assessment and demonstrate the approach with an example of a conceptual model developed following the decision guide for herbicide risk assessment of Mead's milkweed (Asclepias meadii), a species listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. The decision guide specific to herbaceous plants demonstrates the details, but the general approach can be adapted for other species groups and management objectives. Population models provide a tool to link population-level dynamics, species and habitat characteristics as well as information about stressors in a single approach. Developing such models in a systematic, transparent way will increase their applicability and credibility, reduce development efforts, and result in models that are readily available for use in species management and risk assessments.

iSTREEM(®) : An approach for broad-scale in-stream exposure assessment of "down-the-drain" chemicals

The "in-stream exposure model" iSTREEM(®) , a Web-based model made freely available to the public by the American Cleaning Institute, provides a means to estimate concentrations of "down-the-drain" chemicals in effluent, receiving waters, and drinking water intakes across national and regional scales under mean annual and low-flow conditions. We provide an overview of the evolution and utility of the iSTREEM model as a screening-level risk assessment tool relevant for down-the-drain products. The spatial nature of the model, integrating point locations of facilities along a hydrologic network, provides a powerful framework to assess environmental exposure and risk in a spatial context. A case study compared national distributions of modeled concentrations of the fragrance 1,3,4,6,7,8-Hexahydro-4,6,6,7,8,8,-hexamethylcyclopenta-γ-2-benzopyran (HHCB) and the insect repellent N,N-Diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET) to available monitoring data at comparable flow conditions. The iSTREEM low-flow model results yielded a conservative distribution of values, whereas the mean-flow model results more closely resembled the concentration distribution of monitoring data. We demonstrate how model results can be used to construct a conservative estimation of the distribution of chemical concentrations for effluents and streams leading to the derivation of a predicted environmental concentration (PEC) using the high end of the concentration distribution (e.g., 90th percentile). Data requirements, assumptions, and applications of iSTREEM are discussed in the context of other down-the-drain modeling approaches to enhance understanding of comparative advantages and uncertainties for prospective users interested in exposure modeling for ecological risk assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:782-792. © 2016 SETAC.

A framework for screening sites at risk from contaminants of emerging concern

Trace levels of a variety of currently unregulated organic chemicals have been detected in treated wastewater effluents and surface waters that receive treated effluents. Many of these chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) originate from pharmaceuticals and personal care products that are used widely and that frequently are transported "down the drain" to a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). Actual effects of CECs on aquatic life have been difficult to document, although biological effects consistent with effects of some CECs have been noted. There is a critical need to find appropriate ways to screen wastewater sites that have the greatest potential of CEC risk to biota. Building on the work of several researchers, the authors present a screening framework, as well as examples based on the framework, designed to identify high-risk versus lower-risk sites that are influenced by WWTP effluent. It is hoped that this framework can help researchers, utilities, and the larger water resource community focus efforts toward improving CEC risk determinations and management of these risks.

Stream Vulnerability to Widespread and Emergent Stressors: A Focus on Unconventional Oil and Gas

Multiple stressors threaten stream physical and biological quality, including elevated nutrients and other contaminants, riparian and in-stream habitat degradation and altered natural flow regime. Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development is one emerging stressor that spans the U.S. UOG development could alter stream sedimentation, riparian extent and composition, in-stream flow, and water quality. We developed indices to describe the watershed sensitivity and exposure to natural and anthropogenic disturbances and computed a vulnerability index from these two scores across stream catchments in six productive shale plays. We predicted that catchment vulnerability scores would vary across plays due to climatic, geologic and anthropogenic differences. Across-shale averages supported this prediction revealing differences in catchment sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability scores that resulted from different natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. For example, semi-arid Western shale play catchments (Mowry, Hilliard, and Bakken) tended to be more sensitive to stressors due to low annual average precipitation and extensive grassland. Catchments in the Barnett and Marcellus-Utica were naturally sensitive from more erosive soils and steeper catchment slopes, but these catchments also experienced areas with greater UOG densities and urbanization. Our analysis suggested Fayetteville and Barnett catchments were vulnerable due to existing anthropogenic exposure. However, all shale plays had catchments that spanned a wide vulnerability gradient. Our results identify vulnerable catchments that can help prioritize stream protection and monitoring efforts. Resource managers can also use these findings to guide local development activities to help reduce possible environmental effects.

Mixing zone and drinking water intake dilution factor and wastewater generation distributions to enable probabilistic assessment of down-the-drain consumer product chemicals in the U.S

Environmental exposure and associated ecological risk related to down-the-drain chemicals discharged by municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are strongly influenced by in-stream dilution of receiving waters which varies by geography, flow conditions and upstream wastewater inputs. The iSTREEM® model (American Cleaning Institute, Washington D.C.) was utilized to determine probabilistic distributions for no decay and decay-based dilution factors in mean annual and low (7Q10) flow conditions. The dilution factors derived in this study are "combined" dilution factors which account for both hydrologic dilution and cumulative upstream effluent contributions that will differ depending on the rate of in-stream decay due to biodegradation, volatilization, sorption, etc. for the chemical being evaluated. The median dilution factors estimated in this study (based on various in-stream decay rates from zero decay to a 1h half-life) for WWTP mixing zones dominated by domestic wastewater flow ranged from 132 to 609 at mean flow and 5 to 25 at low flow, while median dilution factors at drinking water intakes (mean flow) ranged from 146 to 2×10(7) depending on the in-stream decay rate. WWTPs within the iSTREEM® model were used to generate a distribution of per capita wastewater generated in the U.S. The dilution factor and per capita wastewater generation distributions developed by this work can be used to conduct probabilistic exposure assessments for down-the-drain chemicals in influent wastewater, wastewater treatment plant mixing zones and at drinking water intakes in the conterminous U.S. In addition, evaluation of types and abundance of U.S. wastewater treatment processes provided insight into treatment trends and the flow volume treated by each type of process. Moreover, removal efficiencies of chemicals can differ by treatment type. Hence, the availability of distributions for per capita wastewater production, treatment type, and dilution factors at a national level provides a series of practical and powerful tools for building probabilistic exposure models.

Hydraulic "fracking": are surface water impacts an ecological concern?

Use of high-volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF) in unconventional reservoirs to recover previously inaccessible oil and natural gas is rapidly expanding in North America and elsewhere. Although hydraulic fracturing has been practiced for decades, the advent of more technologically advanced horizontal drilling coupled with improved slickwater chemical formulations has allowed extensive natural gas and oil deposits to be recovered from shale formations. Millions of liters of local groundwaters are utilized to generate extensive fracture networks within these low-permeability reservoirs, allowing extraction of the trapped hydrocarbons. Although the technology is relatively standardized, the geographies and related policies and regulations guiding these operations vary markedly. Some ecosystems are more at risk from these operations than others because of either their sensitivities or the manner in which the HVHF operations are conducted. Generally, the closer geographical proximity of the susceptible ecosystem to a drilling site or a location of related industrial processes, the higher the risk of that ecosystem being impacted by the operation. The associated construction of roads, power grids, pipelines, well pads, and water-extraction systems along with increased truck traffic are common to virtually all HVHF operations. These operations may result in increased erosion and sedimentation, increased risk to aquatic ecosystems from chemical spills or runoff, habitat fragmentation, loss of stream riparian zones, altered biogeochemical cycling, and reduction of available surface and hyporheic water volumes because of withdrawal-induced lowering of local groundwater levels. The potential risks to surface waters from HVHF operations are similar in many ways to those resulting from agriculture, silviculture, mining, and urban development. Indeed, groundwater extraction associated with agriculture is perhaps a larger concern in the long term in some regions. Understanding the ecological impacts of these anthropogenic activities provides useful information for evaluations of potential HVHF hazards. Geographic information system-based modeling combined with strategic site monitoring has provided insights into the relative importance of these and other ecoregion and land-use factors in discerning potential HVHF impacts. Recent findings suggest that proper siting and operational controls along with strategic monitoring can reduce the potential for risks to aquatic ecosystems. Nevertheless, inadequate data exist to predict ecological risk at this time. The authors suggest considering the plausibility of surface water hazards associated with the various HVHF operations in terms of the ecological context and in the context of relevant anthropogenic activities.

Developing a foundation for eco-epidemiological assessment of aquatic ecological status over large geographic regions utilizing existing data resources and models

Eco-epidemiological studies utilizing existing monitoring program data provide a cost-effective means to bridge the gap between the ecological status and chemical status of watersheds and to develop hypotheses of stressor attribution that can influence the design of higher-tier assessments and subsequent management. The present study describes the process of combining existing data and models to develop a robust starting point for eco-epidemiological analyses of watersheds over large geographic scales. Data resources from multiple federal and local agencies representing a range of biological, chemical, physical, toxicological, and other landscape factors across the state of Ohio, USA (2000-2007), were integrated with the National Hydrography Dataset Plus hydrologic model (US Environmental Protection Agency and US Geological Survey). A variety of variable reduction, selection, and optimization strategies were applied to develop eco-epidemiological data sets for fish and macroinvertebrate communities. The relative importance of landscape variables was compared across spatial scales (local catchment, watershed, near-stream) using conditional inference forests to determine the scales most relevant to variation in biological community condition. Conditional inference forest analysis applied to a holistic set of environmental variables yielded stressor-response hypotheses at the statewide and eco-regional levels. The analysis confirmed the dominant influence of state-level stressors such as physical habitat condition, while highlighting differences in predictive strength of other stressors based on ecoregional and land-use characteristics. This exercise lays the groundwork for subsequent work designed to move closer to causal inference.

Quantitative lines of evidence for screening-level diagnostic assessment of regional fish community impacts: a comparison of spatial database evaluation methods

Determination of local ecological impacts and stressor identification in aquatic ecosystems is increasingly needed and required for designing effective watershed management plans in various jurisdictions. Spatial database evaluation methods applied to available environmental data resources can provide screening-level, geographically based stressor identification hypotheses. Cross-comparison of the output of independent methods is a critical step to address common concerns with the interpretation of output, identify strengths and weaknesses, and reduce uncertainty. Two current approaches were compared in this study: (1) the "Effect and Probable Cause" (EPC) method and (2) a GIS "Weights-of-Evidence/Weighted Logistic Regression" (WOE/WLR) method. The methods were applied to the same Ohio (U.S.) spatial data resources to link impacts on local fish assemblages with various natural and anthropogenic stressors. The methods generally yielded significantly similar results in the identification of stressors and their relative influence. However, key differences were also observed between the methods which reflected the distinctive objectives and sensitivities of each. The findings show that scientific interpretation of analysis output requires an understanding of method characteristics, and suggests the potential value of utilizing multiple methods as quantitative lines of evidence in screening-level regional diagnostic assessment.

A geographic information systems-based, weights-of-evidence approach for diagnosing aquatic ecosystem impairment

A Geographic Information Systems-based, watershed-level assessment using Bayesian weights of evidence (WOE) and weighted logistic regression (WLR) provides a method to determine and compare potential environmental stressors in lotic ecosystems and to create predictive models of general or species-specific biological impairment across numerous spatial scales based on limited existing sample data. The WOE/WLR technique used in the present study is a data-driven, probabilistic approach conceptualized in epidemiological research and both developed for and currently used in minerals exploration. Extrapolation of this methodology to a case-study watershed assessment of the Great and Little Miami watersheds (OH, USA) using archival data yielded baseline results consistent with previous assessments. The method additionally produced a quantitative determination of physical and chemical watershed stressor associations with biological impairment and a predicted comparative probability (i.e., favorability) of biological impairment at a spatial resolution of 0.5 km2 over the watershed study region. Habitat stressors showed the greatest spatial association with biological impairment in low-order streams (on average, 56% of total spatial association), whereas water chemistry, particularly that of wastewater effluent, was associated most strongly with biological impairment in high-order reaches (on average, 79% of total spatial association, 28% of which was attributed to effluent). Significant potential stressors varied by land-use and stream order as well as by species. This WOE/WLR method provides a highly useful "tier 1" watershed risk assessment product through the integration of various existing data sources, and it produces a clear visual communication of areas favorable for biological impairment and a quantitative ranking of candidate stressors and associated uncertainty.