Breast Cancer Stage and Size Detected with Film versus Digital Mammography in New South Wales, Australia: A Population-Based Study Using Routinely Collected Data

BACKGROUND

Digital mammography has replaced film mammography in breast-screening programs globally, including Australia. This led to an increase in the rate of detection, but whether there was increased detection of clinically important cancers is uncertain.

METHODS

In this population-wide retrospective cohort study in New South Wales, Australia spanning 2004 to 2016 and including 4,631,656 screens, there were 22,965 cancers in women screened with film (n = 11,040) or digital mammography (n = 11,925). We examined the change in tumor characteristics overall and how these rates changed over time, accounting for changes in background rates using an interrupted time-series. Comparisons were made with unscreened women (n = 26,326) during this time.

RESULTS

We found increased detection of in situ cancer (3.36 per 10,000 screens), localized invasive, and smaller-sized breast cancers attributable to the change in mammography technology, whereas screen-detected intermediate-sized and metastatic breast cancers decreased. Rates of early-stage and intermediate-sized interval cancers increased, and late-stage (-1.62 per 10,000 screens) and large interval cancers decreased. In unscreened women, there were small increases in the temporal trends of cancers across all stages.

CONCLUSIONS

At least some of the increased detection of smaller early-stage cancers may have translated into a reduction in larger and late-stage cancers, indicating beneficial detection of cancers that would have otherwise progressed. However, the increased detection of smaller early-stage and small cancers may also have increased over-diagnosis of lesions that would otherwise have not caused harm.

IMPACT

Robust evaluation of potential benefits and harms is needed after changes to screening programs. See related In the Spotlight, p. 638.

Using the Behaviour Change Wheel to identify barriers and targeted strategies to improve adherence in randomised clinical trials: The example of MEL-SELF trial of patient-led surveillance for melanoma

BACKGROUND

Adherence to self-management interventions is critical in both clinical settings and trials to ensure maximal effectiveness. This study reports how the Behaviour Change Wheel may be used to assess barriers to self-management behaviours and develop strategies to maximise adherence in a trial setting (the MEL-SELF trial of patient-led melanoma surveillance).

METHODS

The Behaviour Change Wheel was applied by (i) using the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behaviour (COMB) model informed by empirical and review data to identify adherence barriers, (ii) mapping identified barriers to corresponding intervention functions, and (iii) identifying appropriate behaviour change techniques and developing potential solutions using the APEASE (Affordability, Practicability, Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, Acceptability, Side-effects and safety, Equity) criteria.

RESULTS

The target adherence behaviour was defined as conducting a thorough skin self-examination and submitting images for teledermatology review. Key barriers identified included: non-engaged skin check partners, inadequate planning, time constraints, low self-efficacy, and technological difficulties. Participants' motivation was positively influenced by perceived health benefits and negatively impacted by emotional states such as anxiety and depression. We identified the following feasible interventions to support adherence: education, training, environmental restructuring, enablement, persuasion, and incentivisation. Proposed solutions included action planning, calendar scheduling, alternative dermatoscopes, optimised communication, educational resources in various formats to boost self-efficacy and motivation and optimised reminders (which will be evaluated in a Study Within A Trial (SWAT)).

CONCLUSION

The Behaviour Change Wheel may be used to improve adherence in clinical trials by identifying barriers to self-management behaviours and guiding development of targeted strategies.

Methods to Include Environmental Impacts in Health Economic Evaluations and Health Technology Assessments: A Scoping Review

OBJECTIVES

The environmental impacts of healthcare are important factors that should be considered during health technology assessments. This study aims to summarize the evidence that exists about methods to include environmental impacts in health economic evaluations and health technology assessments.

METHODS

We identified records for screening using an existing scoping review and a systematic search of academic databases and gray literature up to September 2023. We screened the identified records for eligibility and extracted data using a narrative synthesis approach. The review was conducted following the JBI Manual for Evidence Synthesis and reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews checklist.

RESULTS

We identified 2898 records and assessed the full text of 114, of which 54 were included in this review. Ten methods were identified to include environmental impacts in health economic evaluations and health technology assessments. Methods included converting environmental impacts to dollars or disability-adjusted life years and including them in a cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, or cost-benefit analysis, calculating an incremental carbon footprint effectiveness ratio or incremental carbon footprint cost ratio, incorporating impacts as one criteria of a multi-criteria decision analysis, and freely considering impacts during health technology assessment deliberation processes.

CONCLUSIONS

Methods to include environmental impacts in health economic evaluations and health technology assessments exist but have not been tested for widespread use by health technology assessment agencies. Further research and implementation work is needed to determine which method can best aid decision makers to choose low environmental impact healthcare interventions.

Methods to address selection bias in post-trial studies of legacy effects were evaluated

OBJECTIVES

Post-trial follow-up studies have become increasingly important to investigate the long-term effectiveness of interventions after randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Legacy effects refer to intervention effects that are only observed after the trial has ended and are not the direct effects observed during the trial period. However, limited attention has been given to the potential selection bias in post-trial studies.

METHODS

Using directed acyclic graphs, we illustrated potential sources of selection bias in post-trial studies of cardiovascular disease preventative interventions. We constructed scenarios where selection bias was present and undertook simulations to assess the ability of different modeling approaches to correct for this bias: no adjustment, adjustment for trial baseline covariates, adjustment for post-trial covariates and inverse probability weighting (IPW) methods. Using empirical data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial and post-trial study, we demonstrated application of different modeling approaches.

RESULTS

In the presence of selection bias, modeling without adjustment always resulted in biased estimates. Modeling with adjustment and IPW methods were able to correct the selection bias. The ACCORD study also demonstrated that while the direct effects were potentially beneficial, all models attempting to address selection bias revealed larger potential legacy effects when compared to unadjusted estimates.

CONCLUSION

Post-trial follow-up studies have the potential to provide valuable information for clinical practice by detecting legacy effects. However, it is important to consider and address selection bias that may arise from the post-trial study. This study highlights the importance of using an appropriate analysis method and identifying the potential bias sources to ensure that the findings are reliable and generalizable to the target population.

Acceptability of a Hypothetical Reduction in Routinely Scheduled Clinic Visits Among Patients With History of a Localized Melanoma (MEL-SELF): Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

After treatment for a localized melanoma, patients attend routinely scheduled clinics to monitor for new primary or recurrent melanoma. Patient-led surveillance (skin self-examination with patient-performed teledermoscopy) is an alternative model of follow-up that could replace some routinely scheduled visits.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the acceptability of a hypothetical reduction in routinely scheduled visits among participants of the Melanoma Self Surveillance (MEL-SELF) pilot randomized clinical trial of patient-led surveillance (intervention) versus usual care (control).

METHODS

Patients previously treated for localized melanoma in New South Wales who were participating in the MEL-SELF pilot randomized clinical trial were asked to respond to a web-based questionnaire at baseline and after 6 months on trial. We used mixed methods to analyze the data. The main outcome of interest was the acceptability of a hypothetical reduction in routinely scheduled visits for melanoma surveillance.

RESULTS

Of 100 randomized participants, 87 answered the questionnaire at baseline, 66 answered the questionnaire at 6 months, and 79 provided a free-text explanation at either time point. At 6 months, 33% (17/51) of the control group and 35% (17/49) of the intervention group indicated that a hypothetical reduction in routinely scheduled visits with all melanoma doctors was at least slightly acceptable (difference in proportions -1%, 95% CI -20% to 17%; P=.89). Participants suggested that prerequisites for a reduction in routinely scheduled visits would include that sufficient time had elapsed since the previous diagnosis without a new primary melanoma or recurrence, an unscheduled appointment could be made at short notice if the patient noticed something concerning, their melanoma doctor had suggested reducing their clinic visit frequency, and patients had confidence that patient-led surveillance was a safe and effective alternative. Participants suggested that a reduction in routinely scheduled visits would not be acceptable where they perceived a very high risk of new or recurrent melanoma, low self-efficacy in skin self-examination and in the use of technologies for the patient-led surveillance intervention, and where they had a preference for clinician-led surveillance. Some patients said that a partial reduction to once a year may be acceptable.

CONCLUSIONS

Some patients may be receptive to a reduction in routinely scheduled visits if they are assured that patient-led surveillance is safe and effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616001716459; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=371865&isReview=true; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03581188; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03581188.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR2-10.1001/jamadermatol.2021.4704.

Low-risk prostate lesions: An evidence review to inform discussion on losing the "cancer" label

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS) mitigates harms from overtreatment of low-risk prostate lesions. Recalibration of diagnostic thresholds to redefine which prostate lesions are considered "cancer" and/or adopting alternative diagnostic labels could increase AS uptake and continuation.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and EMBASE to October 2021 for evidence on: (1) clinical outcomes of AS, (2) subclinical prostate cancer at autopsy, (3) reproducibility of histopathological diagnosis, and (4) diagnostic drift. Evidence is presented via narrative synthesis.

RESULTS

AS: one systematic review (13 studies) of men undergoing AS found that prostate cancer-specific mortality was 0%-6% at 15 years. There was eventual termination of AS and conversion to treatment in 45%-66% of men. Four additional cohort studies reported very low rates of metastasis (0%-2.1%) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (0%-0.1%) over follow-up to 15 years. Overall, AS was terminated without medical indication in 1%-9% of men. Subclinical reservoir: 1 systematic review (29 studies) estimated that the subclinical cancer prevalence was 5% at <30 years, and increased nonlinearly to 59% by >79 years. Four additional autopsy studies (mean age: 54-72 years) reported prevalences of 12%-43%. Reproducibility: 1 recent well-conducted study found high reproducibility for low-risk prostate cancer diagnosis, but this was more variable in 7 other studies. Diagnostic drift: 4 studies provided consistent evidence of diagnostic drift, with the most recent (published 2020) reporting that 66% of cases were upgraded and 3% were downgraded when using contemporary diagnostic criteria compared to original diagnoses (1985-1995).

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence collated may inform discussion of diagnostic changes for low-risk prostate lesions.

Should low-risk DCIS lose the cancer label? An evidence review

BACKGROUND

Population mammographic screening for breast cancer has led to large increases in the diagnosis and treatment of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Active surveillance has been proposed as a management strategy for low-risk DCIS to mitigate against potential overdiagnosis and overtreatment. However, clinicians and patients remain reluctant to choose active surveillance, even within a trial setting. Re-calibration of the diagnostic threshold for low-risk DCIS and/or use of a label that does not include the word 'cancer' might encourage the uptake of active surveillance and other conservative treatment options. We aimed to identify and collate relevant epidemiological evidence to inform further discussion on these ideas.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and EMBASE databases for low-risk DCIS studies in four categories: (1) natural history; (2) subclinical cancer found at autopsy; (3) diagnostic reproducibility (two or more pathologist interpretations at a single time point); and (4) diagnostic drift (two or more pathologist interpretations at different time points). Where we identified a pre-existing systematic review, the search was restricted to studies published after the inclusion period of the review. Two authors screened records, extracted data, and performed risk of bias assessment. We undertook a narrative synthesis of the included evidence within each category.

RESULTS

Natural History (n = 11): one systematic review and nine primary studies were included, but only five provided evidence on the prognosis of women with low-risk DCIS. These studies reported that women with low-risk DCIS had comparable outcomes whether or not they had surgery. The risk of invasive breast cancer in patients with low-risk DCIS ranged from 6.5% (7.5 years) to 10.8% (10 years). The risk of dying from breast cancer in patients with low-risk DCIS ranged from 1.2 to 2.2% (10 years). Subclinical cancer at autopsy (n = 1): one systematic review of 13 studies estimated the mean prevalence of subclinical in situ breast cancer to be 8.9%. Diagnostic reproducibility (n = 13): two systematic reviews and 11 primary studies found at most moderate agreement in differentiating low-grade DCIS from other diagnoses. Diagnostic drift: no studies found.

CONCLUSION

Epidemiological evidence supports consideration of relabelling and/or recalibrating diagnostic thresholds for low-risk DCIS. Such diagnostic changes would need agreement on the definition of low-risk DCIS and improved diagnostic reproducibility.

Regular high-frequency whole blood donation and risk of cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and older blood donors in Australia

BACKGROUND

Previous mixed findings on the associations between whole blood (WB) donation and risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) may in part reflect inadequate adjustment for the "healthy donor effect" (HDE).

METHODS

We used the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study linked with blood donation history and other health-related databases to examine the association between regular, high-frequency WB donation and the risk of CVD. To mitigate the impact of HDE, we used a "5-years qualification period," in which donors must donate at least 1 WB donation in the 1st and 5th year of "qualification period." We then compared the risk of CVD in the years following the "qualification period" between the regular high-frequency WB donors (≥2 WB donation in each qualification year) and others using Cox proportional-hazards models. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders, such as sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health-related variables, and results are reported separately for male and female donors.

RESULTS

A total of 2736 male and 2917 female donors were included in the analyses. The median years of follow-up per donor was 5.84 years (Q1-Q3, 5.47-6.23). The rate of CVD hospitalization was 11.20 and 4.50 per 1000 person-years for males and females, respectively. In fully adjusted models, the risk (hazard ratio) of CVD in regular high-frequency donors compared to other donors was 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.68-1.29) for males and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.49-1.28) for females.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not observe a statistically significant reduction of CVD risk in regular, high-frequency WB donors when adjusted for potential confounders.

Strategies to Improve Adherence to Skin Self-examination and Other Self-management Practices in People at High Risk of Melanoma: A Scoping Review of Randomized Clinical Trials

Importance

Adherence, both in research trials and in clinical practice, is crucial to the success of interventions. There is limited guidance on strategies to increase adherence and the measurement and reporting of adherence in trials of melanoma self-management practices.

Objective

This scoping review aimed to describe (1) strategies to improve adherence to self-management practices in randomized clinical trials of people at high risk of melanoma and (2) measurement and reporting of adherence data in these trials.

Evidence Review

Four databases, including MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, and CINAHL, were searched from inception to July 2022. Eligible studies were randomized clinical trials of self-monitoring interventions for early detection of melanoma in people at increased risk due to personal history (eg, melanoma, transplant, dysplastic naevus syndrome), family history of melanoma, or as determined by a risk assessment tool or clinical judgment.

Findings

From 939 records screened, 18 eligible randomized clinical trials were identified, ranging in size from 40 to 724 participants, using a range of adherence strategies but with sparse evidence on effectiveness of the strategies. Strategies were classified as trial design (n = 15); social and economic support (n = 5); intervention design (n = 18); intervention and condition support (n = 10); and participant support (n = 18). No strategies were reported for supporting underserved groups (eg, people who are socioeconomically disadvantaged, have low health literacy, non-English speakers, or older adults) to adhere to self-monitoring practices, and few trials targeted provider (referring to both clinicians and researchers) adherence (n = 5). Behavioral support tools included reminders (n = 8), priority-setting guidance (n = 5), and clinician feedback (n = 5). Measurement of adherence was usually by participant report of skin self-examination practice with some recent trials of digital interventions also directly measuring adherence to the intervention through website or application analytic data. Reporting of adherence data was limited, and fewer than half of all reports mentioned adherence in their discussion.

Conclusions and Relevance

Using an adaptation of the World Health Organization framework for clinical adherence, this scoping review of randomized clinical trials identified key concepts as well as gaps in the way adherence is approached in design, conduct, and reporting of trials for skin self-examination and other self-management practices in people at high risk of melanoma. These findings may usefully guide future trials and clinical practice; evaluation of adherence strategies may be possible using a Study Within A Trial (SWAT) framework within host trials.

Exploring the Integration of Environmental Impacts in the Cost Analysis of the Pilot MEL-SELF Trial of Patient-Led Melanoma Surveillance

AIMS

Human health is intrinsically linked with planetary health. But planetary resources are currently being degraded and this poses an existential threat to human health and the sustainability of our healthcare systems. The aims of this study were to (1) describe an approach to integrate environmental impacts in a cost analysis; and (2) demonstrate this approach by estimating select environmental impacts alongside traditional health system and other costs using the example of the pilot MEL-SELF randomised controlled trial of patient-led melanoma surveillance.

METHODS

Economic costs were calculated alongside a randomised trial using standard cost analysis methodology from a societal perspective. Environmental impacts were calculated using a type of carbon footprinting methodology called process-based life cycle analysis. This method considers three scopes of carbon emissions: Scope 1, which occur directly from the intervention; Scope 2, which occur indirectly from the intervention's energy use; and Scope 3, which occur indirectly because of the value chain of the intervention. In this study we only included emissions from patient transport to attend their melanoma clinic over the study period of 6 months.

RESULTS

The environmental impact per participant across allocated groups for patient transport to their melanoma clinic was estimated to be 10 kg carbon dioxide equivalent. Economic costs across the allocated groups indicated substantial health system costs, out-of-pocket costs, and productivity losses associated with melanoma surveillance. The largest cost contributor was health system costs, and the most expensive category of health system cost was hospital admission.

CONCLUSION

Calculating environmental impacts is worthwhile and feasible within a cost analysis framework. Further work is needed to address outstanding conceptual and practical issues so that a comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts can be considered alongside economic costs in health technology assessments.

Considerations for Evaluating the Introduction of New Cancer Screening Technology: Use of Interval Cancers to Assess Potential Benefits and Harms

This framework focuses on the importance of the consideration of the downstream intermediate and long-term health outcomes when a change to a screening program is introduced. The authors present a methodology for utilising the relationship between screen-detected and interval cancer rates to infer the benefits and harms associated with a change to the program. A review of the previous use of these measures in the literature is presented. The framework presents other aspects to consider when utilizing this methodology, and builds upon an existing framework that helps researchers, clinicians, and policy makers to consider the impacts of changes to screening programs on health outcomes. It is hoped that this research will inform future evaluative studies to assess the benefits and harms of changes to screening programs.

Including Information on Overdiagnosis in Shared Decision Making: A Review of Prostate Cancer Screening Decision Aids

Background. Overdiagnosis is an accepted harm of cancer screening, but studies of prostate cancer screening decision aids have not examined provision of information important in communicating the risk of overdiagnosis, including overdiagnosis frequency, competing mortality risk, and the high prevalence of indolent cancers in the population. Methods. We undertook a comprehensive review of all publicly available decision aids for prostate cancer screening, published in (or translated to) the English language, without date restrictions. We included all decision aids from a recent systematic review and screened excluded studies to identify further relevant decision aids. We used a Google search to identify further decision aids not published in peer reviewed medical literature. Two reviewers independently screened the decision aids and extracted information on communication of overdiagnosis. Disagreements were resolved through discussion or by consulting a third author. Results. Forty-one decision aids were included out of the 80 records identified through the search. Most decision aids (n = 32, 79%) did not use the term overdiagnosis but included a description of it (n = 38, 92%). Few (n = 7, 17%) reported the frequency of overdiagnosis. Little more than half presented the benefits of prostate cancer screening before the harms (n = 22, 54%) and only 16, (39%) presented information on competing risks of mortality. Only 2 (n = 2, 5%) reported the prevalence of undiagnosed prostate cancer in the general population. Conclusion. Most patient decision aids for prostate cancer screening lacked important information on overdiagnosis. Specific guidance is needed on how to communicate the risks of overdiagnosis in decision aids, including appropriate content, terminology and graphical display.

Highlights

Most patient decision aids for prostate cancer screening lacks important information on overdiagnosis.Specific guidance is needed on how to communicate the risks of overdiagnosis.

Prevalence of Subclinical Papillary Thyroid Cancer by Age: Meta-analysis of Autopsy Studies

CONTEXT

It is not known how underlying subclinical papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) differs by age. This meta-analysis of autopsy studies investigates how subclinical PTC prevalence changes over the lifetime.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from inception to May 2021 for studies that reported the prevalence of PTC found at autopsy. Two investigators extracted the number of subclinical PTCs detected in selected age groups and extent of examination. A quality assessment tool was used to assess bias. Logistic regression models with random intercepts were used to pool the age-specific subclinical PTC prevalence estimates.

RESULTS

Of 1773 studies screened, 16 studies with age-specific data met the inclusion criteria (n = 6286 autopsies). The pooled subclinical PTC prevalence was 12.9% (95% CI 7.8-16.8) in whole gland and 4.6% (2.5- 6.6) in partial gland examination. Age-specific prevalence estimates were ≤40 years, 11.5% (6.8-16.1); 41-60 years, 12.1% (7.6-16.5); 61-80 years, 12.7% (8-17.5); and 81+ years, 13.4% (7.9-18.9). Sex did not affect age-specific prevalence and there was no difference in prevalence between men and women in any age group. In the regression model, the OR of prevalence increasing by age group was 1.06 (0.92-1.2, P = .37).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis shows the prevalence of subclinical PTC is stable across the lifespan. There is not a higher subclinical PTC prevalence in middle age, in contrast to higher observed incidence rates in this age group. These findings offer unique insights into the prevalence of subclinical PTC and its relationship to age.

Decision Support Tools for Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease Do Not Meet Health Literacy Needs: A Systematic Environmental Scan and Evaluation

A shared decision-making approach is considered optimal in primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. Evidence-based patient decision aids can facilitate this but do not always meet patients' health literacy needs. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scans are increasingly used in addition to traditional cardiovascular risk scores, but the availability of high-quality decision aids to support shared decision-making is unknown. We used an environmental scan methodology to review decision support for CAC scans and assess their suitability for patients with varying health literacy. We systematically searched for freely available web-based decision support tools that included information about CAC scans for primary CVD prevention and were aimed at the public. Eligible materials were independently evaluated using validated tools to assess qualification as a decision aid, understandability, actionability, and readability. We identified 13 eligible materials. Of those, only one qualified as a decision aid, and one item presented quantitative information about the potential harms of CAC scans. None presented quantitative information about both benefits and harms of CAC scans. Mean understandability was 68%, and actionability was 48%. Mean readability (12.8) was much higher than the recommended grade 8 level. Terms used for CAC scans were highly variable. Current materials available to people considering a CAC scan do not meet the criteria to enable informed decision-making, nor do they meet the health literacy needs of the general population. Clinical guidelines, including CAC scans for primary prevention, must be supported by best practice decision aids to support decision-making.

Can patient-led surveillance detect subsequent new primary or recurrent melanomas and reduce the need for routinely scheduled follow up? Statistical analysis plan for the MEL-SELF randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The MEL-SELF trial is a randomised controlled trial of patient-led surveillance compared to clinician-led surveillance in people treated for localised cutaneous melanoma (stage 0, I, II). The primary trial aim is to determine if patient led-surveillance compared to clinician-led surveillance increases the proportion of participants who are diagnosed with a new primary or recurrent melanoma at a fast-tracked unscheduled clinic visit. The secondary outcomes include time to diagnosis of any skin cancer, psychosocial outcomes, acceptability, and resource use.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this report is to outline and publish the pre-determined statistical analysis plan before the database lock and the start of analysis.

METHODS/DESIGN

The statistical analysis plan describes the overall analysis principles, including how participants will be included in each analysis, the presentation of the results, adjustments for covariates, the primary and secondary outcomes, and their respective analyses. In addition, we present the planned sensitivity and subgroup analyses. A separate analysis plan will be published for health economic outcomes.

RESULTS

The MEL-SELF statistical analysis plan has been designed to minimize bias in estimating effects of the intervention on primary and secondary outcomes. By pre-specifying analyses, we ensure the study's integrity and believability while enabling the reproducibility of the final analysis.

CONCLUSION

This detailed statistical analysis plan will help to ensure transparency of reporting of results from the MEL-SELF trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR): ACTRN12621000176864. Registered 18 February 2021, https://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12621000176864.aspx.

Evaluation of the Incremental Value of a Coronary Artery Calcium Score Beyond Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Coronary artery calcium scores (CACS) are used to help assess patients' cardiovascular status and risk. However, their best use in risk assessment beyond traditional cardiovascular factors in primary prevention is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To find, assess, and synthesize all cohort studies that assessed the incremental gain from the addition of a CACS to a standard cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculator (or CVD risk factors for a standard calculator), that is, comparing CVD risk score plus CACS with CVD risk score alone.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Eligible studies needed to be cohort studies in primary prevention populations that used 1 of the CVD risk calculators recommended by national guidelines (Framingham Risk Score, QRISK, pooled cohort equation, NZ PREDICT, NORRISK, or SCORE) and assessed and reported incremental discrimination with CACS for estimating the risk of a future cardiovascular event.

FINDINGS

From 2772 records screened, 6 eligible cohort studies were identified (with 1043 CVD events in 17 961 unique participants) from the US (n = 3), the Netherlands (n = 1), Germany (n = 1), and South Korea (n = 1). Studies varied in size from 470 to 5185 participants (range of mean [SD] ages, 50 [10] to 75.1 [7.3] years; 38.4%-59.4% were women). The C statistic for the CVD risk models without CACS ranged from 0.693 (95% CI, 0.661-0.726) to 0.80. The pooled gain in C statistic from adding CACS was 0.036 (95% CI, 0.020-0.052). Among participants classified as being at low risk by the risk score and reclassified as at intermediate or high risk by CACS, 85.5% (65 of 76) to 96.4% (349 of 362) did not have a CVD event during follow-up (range, 5.1-10.0 years). Among participants classified as being at high risk by the risk score and reclassified as being at low risk by CACS, 91.4% (202 of 221) to 99.2% (502 of 506) did not have a CVD event during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This systematic review and meta-analysis found that the CACS appears to add some further discrimination to the traditional CVD risk assessment equations used in these studies, which appears to be relatively consistent across studies. However, the modest gain may often be outweighed by costs, rates of incidental findings, and radiation risks. Although the CACS may have a role for refining risk assessment in selected patients, which patients would benefit remains unclear. At present, no evidence suggests that adding CACS to traditional risk scores provides clinical benefit.

What is the prevalence of fear of cancer recurrence in cancer survivors and patients? A systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis

Objective

Care for fear of cancer recurrence (FCR) is considered the most common unmet need among cancer survivors. Yet the prevalence of FCR and predisposing factors remain inconclusive. To support targeted care, we provide a comprehensive overview of the prevalence and severity of FCR among cancer survivors and patients, as measured using the short form of the validated Fear of Cancer Recurrence Inventory (FCRI‐SF). We also report on associations between FCR and clinical and demographic characteristics.

Methods

This is a systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta‐analysis on the prevalence of FCR. In the review, we included all studies that used the FCRI‐SF with adult (≥18 years) cancer survivors and patients. Date of search: 7 February 2020. Risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool.

Results

IPD were requested from 87 unique studies and provided for 46 studies comprising 11,226 participants from 13 countries. 9311 respondents were included for the main analyses. On the FCRI‐SF (range 0–36), 58.8% of respondents scored ≥13, 45.1% scored ≥16 and 19.2% scored ≥22. FCR decreased with age and women reported more FCR than men. FCR was found across cancer types and continents and for all time periods since cancer diagnosis.

Conclusions

FCR affects a considerable number of cancer survivors and patients. It is therefore important that healthcare providers discuss this issue with their patients and provide treatment when needed. Further research is needed to investigate how best to prevent and treat FCR and to identify other factors associated with FCR.

The protocol was prospectively registered (PROSPERO CRD42020142185).

Learning from the pandemic: mortality trends and seasonality of deaths in Australia in 2020

Aim

To assess whether the observed numbers and seasonality of deaths in Australia during 2020 differed from expected trends based on 2015–19 data.

Methods

We used provisional death data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, stratified by state, age, sex and cause of death. We compared 2020 deaths with 2015-19 deaths using interrupted time series adjusted for time trend and seasonality. We measured the following outcomes along with 95% confidence intervals: observed/expected deaths (rate ratio: RR), change in seasonal variation in mortality (amplitude ratio: AR) and change in week of peak seasonal mortality (phase difference: PD).

Results

Overall 4% fewer deaths from all causes were registered in Australia than expected in 2020 [RR 0·96 (0·95-0·98)] with reductions across states, ages and sex strata. There were fewer deaths from respiratory illness [RR 0·79 (0·76-0·83)] and dementia [RR 0·95 (0·93-0·98)] but more from diabetes [RR 1·08 (1·04-1·13)]. Seasonal variation was reduced for deaths overall [AR 0·94 (0·92-0·95)], and for deaths due to respiratory illnesses [AR 0·78 (0·74-0·83)], dementia [AR 0.92 (0.89-0.95)] and ischaemic heart disease [0.95 (0.90-0.97)].

Conclusions

The observed reductions in respiratory and dementia deaths and the reduced seasonality in ischaemic heart disease deaths may reflect reductions in circulating respiratory (non-SARS-CoV-2) pathogens resulting from the public health measures taken in 2020. The observed increase in diabetes deaths is unexplained and merits further study.

Assessing the Potential for Patient-led Surveillance After Treatment of Localized Melanoma (MEL-SELF): A Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Patient-led surveillance is a promising new model of follow-up care following excision of localized melanoma.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether patient-led surveillance in patients with prior localized primary cutaneous melanoma is as safe, feasible, and acceptable as clinician-led surveillance.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a pilot for a randomized clinical trial at 2 specialist-led clinics in metropolitan Sydney, Australia, and a primary care skin cancer clinic managed by general practitioners in metropolitan Newcastle, Australia. The participants were 100 patients who had been treated for localized melanoma, owned a smartphone, had a partner to assist with skin self-examination (SSE), and had been routinely attending scheduled follow-up visits. The study was conducted from November 1, 2018, to January 17, 2020, with analysis performed from September 1, 2020, to November 15, 2020.

INTERVENTION

Participants were randomized (1:1) to 6 months of patient-led surveillance (the intervention comprised usual care plus reminders to perform SSE, patient-performed dermoscopy, teledermatologist assessment, and fast-tracked unscheduled clinic visits) or clinician-led surveillance (the control was usual care).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was the proportion of eligible and contacted patients who were randomized. Secondary outcomes included patient-reported outcomes (eg, SSE knowledge, attitudes, and practices, psychological outcomes, other health care use) and clinical outcomes (eg, clinic visits, skin surgeries, subsequent new primary or recurrent melanoma).

RESULTS

Of 326 patients who were eligible and contacted, 100 (31%) patients (mean [SD] age, 58.7 [12.0] years; 53 [53%] men) were randomized to patient-led (n = 49) or clinician-led (n = 51) surveillance. Data were available on patient-reported outcomes for 66 participants and on clinical outcomes for 100 participants. Compared with clinician-led surveillance, patient-led surveillance was associated with increased SSE frequency (odds ratio [OR], 3.5; 95% CI, 0.9 to 14.0) and thoroughness (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 0.8 to 5.7), had no detectable adverse effect on psychological outcomes (fear of cancer recurrence subscale score; mean difference, -1.3; 95% CI, -3.1 to 0.5), and increased clinic visits (risk ratio [RR], 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.1), skin lesion excisions (RR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.6 to 2.0), and subsequent melanoma diagnoses and subsequent melanoma diagnoses (risk difference, 10%; 95% CI, -2% to 23%). New primary melanomas and 1 local recurrence were diagnosed in 8 (16%) of the participants in the intervention group, including 5 (10%) ahead of routinely scheduled visits; and in 3 (6%) of the participants in the control group, with none (0%) ahead of routinely scheduled visits (risk difference, 10%; 95% CI, 2% to 19%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This pilot of a randomized clinical trial found that patient-led surveillance after treatment of localized melanoma appears to be safe, feasible, and acceptable. Experiences from this pilot study have prompted improvements to the trial processes for the larger trial of the same intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

http://anzctr.org.au Identifier: ACTRN12616001716459.

Rethinking Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Cancers < 1cm (Papillary Microcarcinomas): An Evidence Review for Recalibrating Diagnostic Thresholds and/or Alternative Labels

Background: Recalibrating diagnostic thresholds or using alternative labels may mitigate overdiagnosis and overtreatment of papillary microcarcinoma (mPTC). We aimed at identifying and collating relevant epidemiological evidence on mPTC, to assess the case for recalibration and/or new labels. Methods: We searched EMBASE and PubMed databases from inception to December 2020 for natural history, autopsy, diagnostic drift, and diagnostic reproducibility studies. Where a relevant systematic review was pre-identified, only new articles were additionally included. Non-English articles were excluded. One author screened titles and abstracts. Two authors screened full text articles, performed quality assessments, and extracted data. We undertook narrative synthesis of included evidence (pooled estimates from systematic reviews and single estimates from primary studies). Results: One systematic review of patients undergoing active surveillance found that after 5 years of follow-up, 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI 4.4-6.4%]) of the mPTC lesions had increased in size by ≥3 mm, and 1.6% [CI 1.1-2.4%] of patients had lymph node metastases. Among 7 new primary studies (including 3 updates on 2 studies included in the systematic review), 1-5% of patients undergoing active surveillance had lymph node metastases after a median follow-up of 1-10 years. One systematic review found that subclinical thyroid cancer incidentally discovered at autopsy is relatively common, with a pooled prevalence of 11.2% [CI 6.7-16.1%] among studies that examined the whole thyroid. Four diagnostic drift studies evaluated the new classification of non-invasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP). Three studies of cases previously diagnosed as papillary thyroid cancer found 1.3-2.3% were reclassified as NIFTP (reclassifications were from follicular variation of papillary thyroid cancer [FVPTC]). One study of 48 cases previously diagnosed as mPTC found that 23.5% were reclassified as NIFTP. Thirteen reproducibility studies of papillary thyroid lesions found substantial variation in the histopathological diagnosis of thyroid lesions, including FVPTC and NIFTP classifications (no study evaluated mPTC). Conclusions: This review supports consideration of recalibrating diagnostic thresholds and/or alternative labels for low-risk mPTC.

Setting analytical performance specifications using HbA1c as a model measurand

Analytical performance specifications (APS) for measurands describe the minimum analytical quality requirements for their measurement. These APS are used to monitor and contain the systematic (trueness/bias) and random errors (precision/imprecision) of a laboratory measurement to ensure the results are "fit for purpose" in informing clinical decisions about managing a patient's health condition. In this review, we highlighted the wide variation in the setting of APS, using different levels of evidence, as recommended by the Milan Consensus, and approaches. The setting of a priori defined outcome-based APS for HbA1c remains challenging. Promising indirect alternatives seek to link the clinical utility of HbA1c and APS by defining statistical confidence for interpreting the laboratory values, or through simulation of clinical performance at varying levels of analytical performance. APS defined based on biological variation estimates in healthy individuals using the current formulae are unachievable by nearly all routine laboratory methods for HbA1c testing. On the other hand, the APS employed in external quality assurance programs have been progressively tightened, and greatly facilitate the improved quality of HbA1c testing. Laboratories should select the APS that fits their intended clinical use and should document the data and rationale underpinning those selections. Where possible common APS should be adopted across a region or country to facilitate the movement of patients and patient data across health care facilities.

Evaluation of Gender Inequity in Thyroid Cancer Diagnosis: Differences by Sex in US Thyroid Cancer Incidence Compared With a Meta-analysis of Subclinical Thyroid Cancer Rates at Autopsy

IMPORTANCE

Thyroid cancer is more common in women than in men, but the associated causes of these differences are not fully understood.

OBJECTIVE

To compare sex-specific thyroid cancer rates in the US to the prevalence of subclinical thyroid cancer at autopsy.

DATA SOURCES

Data on thyroid cancer incidence and mortality by sex among US adults (≥18 years) were extracted from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) data for 1975 to 2017. Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science databases were searched for studies on the prevalence of subclinical thyroid cancer at autopsy of men and women, from inception to May 31, 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was used to perform a systematic search for articles reporting the prevalence of subclinical thyroid cancer in autopsy results of both women and men. Of 101 studies identified, 8 studies containing 12 data sets met inclusion criteria; ie, they examined the whole thyroid gland, stated the number of thyroids examined, and reported results by sex. Excluded studies reported thyroid cancer in Japan after the atomic bombs or Chernobyl after the nuclear disaster; did not examine the whole thyroid gland or had incomplete information on thyroid examination methods; or did not report rates by sex.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Thyroid cancer incidence and mortality data by sex, histologic type, and tumor size were extracted from SEER. The inverse variance heterogeneity model was used to meta-analyze the prevalence and the odds ratio of subclinical thyroid cancer by sex from 8 studies (12 data sets) on thyroid cancer prevalence in autopsy results.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer, by histologic type and tumor size; prevalence of thyroid cancer in autopsy results.

RESULTS

In 2017, 90% of thyroid cancers diagnosed were papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and in 2013 to 2017, the women to men incidence ratio for small (≤2 cm) PTC was 4.39:1. The incidence ratio approached 1:1 as cancer type lethality increased. The ratio of thyroid cancer mortality by gender was 1.02:1 and remained stable from 1992 to 2017. Results of the meta-analysis showed that the pooled autopsy prevalence of subclinical PTC was 14% in women (95% CI, 8%-20%) and 11% in men (95% CI, 5%-18%). The pooled odds ratio of subclinical PTC in women compared with men was 1.07 (95% CI, 0.80-1.42).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study and meta-analysis found that the belief that women get thyroid cancer more often than men is an oversimplification. The gender disparity is mostly confined to the detection of small subclinical PTCs, which are equally common in both sexes at autopsy but identified during life much more often in women than men. As the lethality of the cancer type increases, the ratio of detection by gender approaches 1:1. This phenomenon may be associated with gender differences in health care utilization and patterns of clinical thinking and can harm both women, who are subject to overdetection, and men, who may be at risk of underdetection.

Can patient-led surveillance detect subsequent new primary or recurrent melanomas and reduce the need for routinely scheduled follow-up? A protocol for the MEL-SELF randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Most subsequent new primary or recurrent melanomas might be self-detected if patients are trained to systematically self-examine their skin and have access to timely medical review (patient-led surveillance). Routinely scheduled clinic visits (clinician-led surveillance) is resource-intensive and has not been shown to improve health outcomes; fewer visits may be possible if patient-led surveillance is shown to be safe and effective. The MEL-SELF trial is a randomised controlled trial comparing patient-led surveillance with clinician-led surveillance in people who have been previously treated for localised melanoma.

METHODS

Stage 0/I/II melanoma patients (n = 600) from dermatology, surgical, or general practice clinics in NSW Australia, will be randomised (1:1) to the intervention (patient-led surveillance, n = 300) or control (usual care, n = 300). Patients in the intervention will undergo a second randomisation 1:1 to polarised (n = 150) or non-polarised (n = 150) dermatoscope. Patient-led surveillance comprises an educational booklet, skin self-examination (SSE) instructional videos; 3-monthly email/SMS reminders to perform SSE; patient-performed dermoscopy with teledermatologist feedback; clinical review of positive teledermoscopy through fast-tracked unscheduled clinic visits; and routinely scheduled clinic visits following each clinician's usual practice. Clinician-led surveillance comprises an educational booklet and routinely scheduled clinic visits following each clinician's usual practice. The primary outcome, measured at 12 months, is the proportion of participants diagnosed with a subsequent new primary or recurrent melanoma at an unscheduled clinic visit. Secondary outcomes include time from randomisation to diagnosis (of a subsequent new primary or recurrent melanoma and of a new keratinocyte cancer), clinicopathological characteristics of subsequent new primary or recurrent melanomas (including AJCC stage), psychological outcomes, and healthcare use. A nested qualitative study will include interviews with patients and clinicians, and a costing study we will compare costs from a societal perspective. We will compare the technical performance of two different models of dermatoscope (polarised vs non-polarised).

DISCUSSION

The findings from this study may inform guidance on evidence-based follow-up care, that maximises early detection of subsequent new primary or recurrent melanoma and patient wellbeing, while minimising costs to patients, health systems, and society.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR): ACTRN12621000176864 . Registered on 18 February 2021.

Estimating the potential impact of interventions to reduce over-calling and under-calling of melanoma

BACKGROUND

Pathologists sometimes disagree over the histopathologic diagnosis of melanoma. 'Over-calling' and 'under-calling' of melanoma may harm individuals and healthcare systems.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the extent of 'over-calling' and 'under-calling' of melanoma for a population undergoing one excision per person and to model the impact of potential solutions.

METHODS

In this epidemiological modelling study, we undertook simulations using published data on the prevalence and diagnostic accuracy of melanocytic histopathology in the U.S.

POPULATION

We simulated results for 10 000 patients each undergoing excision of one melanocytic lesion, interpreted by one community pathologist. We repeated the simulation using a hypothetical intervention that improves diagnostic agreement between community pathologist and a specialist dermatopathologist. We then evaluated four scenarios for how melanocytic lesions judged to be neither clearly benign (post-test probability of melanoma < 5%), nor clearly malignant (post-test probability of melanoma > 90%) might be handled, before sending for expert dermatopathologist review to decide the final diagnosis. These were (1) no intervention before expert review, (2) formal second community pathologist review, (3) intervention to increase diagnostic agreement and (4) both the intervention and formal second community pathologist review. The main outcomes were the probability of 'over-calling' and 'under-calling' melanoma, and number of lesions requiring expert referral for each scenario.

RESULTS

For 10 000 individuals undergoing excision of one melanocytic lesion, interpreted by a community pathologist, a hypothetical intervention to improve histopathology agreement reduced the number of benign lesions 'over-called' as melanoma from 308 to 164 and the number of melanomas 'under-called' from 289 to 240. If all uncertain diagnoses were sent for expert review, the number of referrals would decrease from 1500 to 737 cases if formal second community pathologist review was used, and to 701 cases if the hypothetical intervention was additionally used.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions to improve histopathology agreement may reduce melanoma 'over-calling' and 'under-calling'.

Mendelian Randomization in Cardiovascular Research: Establishing Causality When There Are Unmeasured Confounders

Mendelian randomization is an epidemiological approach to making causal inferences using observational data. It makes use of the natural randomization that occurs in the generation of an individual's genetic makeup in a way that is analogous to the study design of a randomized controlled trial and uses instrumental variable analysis where the genetic variant(s) are the instrument (analogous to random allocation to treatment group in an randomized controlled trial). As with any instrumental variable, there are 3 assumptions that must be made about the genetic instrument: (1) it is associated (not necessarily causally) with the exposure (relevance condition); (2) it is associated with the outcome only through the exposure (exclusion restriction condition); and (3) it does not share a common cause with the outcome (ie, no confounders of the genetic instrument and outcome, independence condition). Using the example of type II diabetes and coronary artery disease, we demonstrate how the method may be used to investigate causality and discuss potential benefits and pitfalls. We conclude that although Mendelian randomization studies can usually not establish causality on their own, they may usefully contribute to the evidence base and increase our certainty about the effectiveness (or otherwise) of interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease.

A methods review of posttrial follow-up studies of cardiovascular prevention finds potential biases in estimating legacy effects

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the study was to assess the methods used, and potential for bias, in posttrial studies of cardiovascular disease (CVD) where legacy effects may be estimated.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We undertook a methods review of posttrial studies after randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions to prevent CVD. For each included article, we extracted information on important aspects of the design and analysis of the study, and on the reporting of legacy effects.

RESULTS

Of 2,622 retrieved articles, 46 were included in the review: 13 on blood glucose control, 13 on blood pressure control, and 20 on blood lipid control. The median duration for the RCT and posttrial follow-up studies was 5.0 and 5.7 years, respectively. At least 80% of initial RCT participants were enrolled in the posttrial study in 32 of the reports. Most reports used both linkage to routine administrative data sources and active data collection for the posttrial study. Of the 46 included articles, the authors assessed and reported posttrial covariate balance in 29 and made statistical adjustments in the analysis for potential confounding in 25. Posttrial results were reported separately to overall results (from time of randomization) in 21 articles. Legacy effects were claimed in 19 reports, of which 16 could be justified on the basis of the posttrial results.

CONCLUSION

Posttrial studies may provide valuable information for investigating legacy effects, but better reporting of results is needed to realize their full potential. Robust methods of data collection and analysis may address the risk of selection and confounding biases in posttrial studies.

Why clinicians overtest: development of a thematic framework

BACKGROUND

Medical tests provide important information to guide clinical management. Overtesting, however, may cause harm to patients and the healthcare system, including through misdiagnosis, false positives, false negatives and overdiagnosis. Clinicians are ultimately responsible for test requests, and are therefore ideally positioned to prevent overtesting and its unintended consequences. Through this narrative literature review and workshop discussion with experts at the Preventing Overdiagnosis Conference (Sydney, 2019), we aimed to identify and establish a thematic framework of factors that influence clinicians to request non-recommended and unnecessary tests.

METHODS

Articles exploring factors affecting clinician test ordering behaviour were identified through a systematic search of MedLine in April 2019, forward and backward citation searches and content experts. Two authors screened abstract titles and abstracts, and two authors screened full text for inclusion. Identified factors were categorised into a preliminary framework which was subsequently presented at the PODC for iterative development.

RESULTS

The MedLine search yielded 542 articles; 55 were included. Another 10 articles identified by forward-backward citation and content experts were included, resulting in 65 articles in total. Following small group discussion with workshop participants, a revised thematic framework of factors was developed: "Intrapersonal" - fear of malpractice and litigation; clinician knowledge and understanding; intolerance of uncertainty and risk aversion; cognitive biases and experiences; sense of medical obligation "Interpersonal" - pressure from patients and doctor-patient relationship; pressure from colleagues and medical culture; "Environment/context" - guidelines, protocols and policies; financial incentives and ownership of tests; time constraints, physical vulnerabilities and language barriers; availability and ease of access to tests; pre-emptive testing to facilitate subsequent care; contemporary medical practice and new technology CONCLUSION: This thematic framework may raise awareness of overtesting and prompt clinicians to change their test request behaviour. The development of a scale to assess clinician knowledge, attitudes and practices is planned to allow evaluation of clinician-targeted interventions to reduce overtesting.

Legacy effect of fibrate add-on therapy in diabetic patients with dyslipidemia: a secondary analysis of the ACCORDION study

Background

The Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD)-Lipid study found no evidence of a beneficial effect of statin-fibrate combined treatment, compared to statins alone, on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus after 5 years of active treatment. However, a beneficial reduction in major CVD events was shown in a pre-specified sub-group of participants with dyslipidemia. The extended follow-up of this trial provides the opportunity to further investigate possible beneficial effects of fibrates in this group of patients. We aimed to evaluate possible “legacy effects” of fibrate add-on therapy on mortality and major cardiovascular outcomes in patients with dyslipidemia.

Methods

The ACCORD-lipid study was a randomized controlled trial of 5518 participants assigned to receive simvastatin plus fenofibrate vs simvastatin plus placebo. After randomized treatment allocation had finished at the end of the trial, all surviving participants were invited to attend an extended follow-up study (ACCORDION) to continue prospective collection of clinical outcomes. We undertook a secondary analysis of trial and post-trial data in patients who had dyslipidemia. The primary outcome was all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and secondary outcomes were nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, congestive heart failure and major coronary heart disease. We used an intention-to-treat approach to analysis to make comparisons between the original randomized treatment groups.

Results

853 participants with dyslipidemia had survived at the end of the trial. Most participants continued to use statins, but few used fibrates in either group during the post-trial period. The incidence rates in the fenofibrate group were lower with respect to all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure and major coronary heart disease than those in the placebo group over a post-trial follow-up. Allocation to the combined fibrate-statin treatment arm during the trial period had a beneficial legacy effect on all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.45–0.94; P = 0.02).

Conclusions

Fibrate treatment during the initial trial period was associated with a legacy benefit of improved survival over a post-trial follow-up. These findings support re-evaluation of fibrates as an add-on strategy to statins in order to reduce cardiovascular risk in diabetic patients with dyslipidemia.

Trial registration clinicaltrials.gov, Identifier: NCT00000620

Correction: Prognostic impact of systolic blood pressure variability in people with diabetes

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194084.].

Patients' Views About Skin Self-examination After Treatment for Localized Melanoma

Importance

Skin self-examination (SSE) is a key factor in the early detection of melanoma, and many new and recurrent melanomas are first detected by patients themselves or their family members.

Objective

To explore the views of patients with melanoma regarding SSE in general, as well as their attitudes toward using novel digital technologies to support their own SSE.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Qualitative study with semistructured interviews that were conducted from June 20 to December 12, 2016, with 37 individuals in Sydney, Australia, who were previously treated for a first primary localized melanoma during 2014 and had not had a recurrence or new primary melanoma in the time since treatment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Patients' views and experiences, analyzed thematically.

Results

A total of 37 patients (11 women and 26 men; median age, 67 years [interquartile range, 59.5-72 years]) were interviewed. Participants perceived SSE as important for the early identification of local recurrence or new primary melanomas. Despite this belief, participants did not report undertaking full-body SSE on a regular basis. Factors that influenced their low engagement in thorough SSE included lack of self-efficacy, reliance on clinician consultations as the primary means of melanoma detection, and fear of cancer recurrence. Regarding the use of digital technology to assist with SSE, the key motivating factors in favor of such tools were the ability to track changes in lesions over time and the use of automated reminders to undertake SSE. Deterrents included a lack of confidence in undertaking SSE and in using new technology.

Conclusions and Relevance

Patients with melanoma are aware of the importance of thorough skin examinations. However, a lack of confidence in their ability to undertake SSE and reliance on clinicians as the primary means of melanoma detection may inhibit patients from undertaking regular and thorough SSE. Patients may benefit from new digital technologies that assist them in undertaking SSE, provided they have appropriate education and technical support.

Rate of normal lung function decline in ageing adults: a systematic review of prospective cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a systematic review investigating the normal age-related changes in lung function in adults without known lung disease.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) were searched for eligible studies from inception to February 12, 2019, supplemented by manual searches of reference lists and clinical trial registries.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We planned to include prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials (control arms) that measured changes in lung function over time in asymptomatic adults without known respiratory disease.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two authors independently determined the eligibility of studies, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of included studies using the modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.

RESULTS

From 4385 records screened, we identified 16 cohort studies with 31 099 participants. All included studies demonstrated decline in lung function-forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) with age. In studies with longer follow-up (>10 years), rates of FEV1 decline ranged from 17.7 to 46.4 mL/year (median 22.4 mL/year). Overall, men had faster absolute rates of decline (median 43.5 mL/year) compared with women (median 30.5 mL/year). Differences in relative FEV1 change, however, were not observed between men and women. FEV1/FVC change was reported in only one study, declining by 0.29% per year. An age-specific analysis suggested the rate of FEV1 function decline may accelerate with each decade of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung function-FEV1, FVC and PEFR-decline with age in individuals without known lung disease. The definition of chronic airway disease may need to be reconsidered to allow for normal ageing and ensure that people likely to benefit from interventions are identified rather than healthy people who may be harmed by potential overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The first step would be to apply age, sex and ethnicity-adjusted FEV1/FVC thresholds to the disease definition of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018087066.

Patient Preferences for Follow-up After Recent Excision of a Localized Melanoma

Importance

The standard model of follow-up posttreatment of localized melanoma relies on clinician detection of recurrent or new melanoma, through routinely scheduled clinics (clinician-led surveillance). An alternative model is to increase reliance on patient detection of melanoma, with fewer scheduled visits and increased support for patients' skin self-examination (SSE) (eg, using smartphone apps to instruct, prompt and record SSE, and facilitate teledermatology; patient-led surveillance).

Objective

To determine the proportion of adults treated for localized melanoma who prefer the standard scheduled visit frequency (as per Australian guideline recommendations) or fewer scheduled visits (adapted from the Melanoma Follow-up [MELFO] study of reduced follow-up).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This survey study used a telephone interview for surveillance following excision of localized melanoma at an Australian specialist center. We invited a random sample of 400 patients who had completed treatment for localized melanoma in 2014 to participate. They were asked about their preferences for scheduled follow-up, and experience of follow-up in the past 12 months. Those with a recurrent or new primary melanoma diagnosed by the time of interview (0.8-1.7 years since first diagnosis) were asked about how it was first detected and treated. SSE practices were also assessed.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Proportion preferring standard vs fewer scheduled clinic visits, median delay between detection and treatment of recurrent or new primary melanoma, and SSE practices.

Results

Of the 262 people who agreed to be interviewed, the mean (SD) age was 64.3 (14.3) years, and 93 (36%) were women. Among the 230 people who did not have a recurrent or new primary melanoma, 149 vs 81 preferred the standard vs fewer scheduled clinic visits option (70% vs 30% after adjusting for sampling frame). Factors independently associated with preferring fewer visits were a higher disease stage, melanoma on a limb, living with others, not having private health insurance, and seeing a specialist for another chronic condition. The median delay between first detection and treatment of recurrent or new primary melanoma was 7 and 3 weeks, respectively. Only 8% missed a scheduled visit, while 40% did not perform SSE or did so at greater than 3-month intervals.

Conclusions and Relevance

Some patients with melanoma may prefer fewer scheduled visits, if they are supported to do SSE and there is rapid clinical review of anything causing concern (patient-led surveillance).

A stepped wedge cluster randomised trial of nurse-delivered Teach-Back in a consumer telehealth service

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of Teach-Back on communication quality in a national telephone-based telehealth service, for callers varying in health literacy.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional stepped wedge cluster randomised trial with continuous recruitment, short (fixed) exposure and blinded outcome assessors. Nurses were stratified by hours worked and randomised into training groups using a computer generated sequence.

SETTING

An Australian national pregnancy and parenting telephone helpline.

INTERVENTION

Complex intervention involving a single 2-hour group Teach-Back training session, combined with ongoing nurse self-reflection on their communication following each call and each shift.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were 637 callers to the telephone helpline aged 18-75 (87% female), of whom 127 (13%) had inadequate health literacy (measured with the Single Item Literacy Screener); and 15 maternal and child health nurses with 15 years' experience on average.

MEASURES

Primary outcome was a modified subscale of the Health Literacy Questionnaire, 'having sufficient information to manage health'. Secondary caller outcomes included caller confidence, perceived actionability of information and nurse effort to listen and understand. Nurse outcomes were perceptions of their communication effectiveness.

RESULTS

Over a 7 week period, 376 surveyed callers received usual care and 261 Teach-Back. Ratings on the primary outcome increased over time (OR 1.17, CI 1.01 to 1.32, p = 0.03) but no independent Teach-Back effect was observed. A consistent pattern suggests that, compared with usual care, Teach-Back helps callers with inadequate health literacy feel listened to (OR 2.3, CI 0.98 to 5.42, p = 0.06), confident to act (OR 2.44, CI 1.00 to 5.98, p = 0.06), and know what steps to take (OR 2.68, CI 1.00 to 7.17, p = 0.06). Nurse perceptions of both their own communication effectiveness (OR = 2.31; CI 1.38 to 3.86, p<0.0001), and caller understanding (OR = 2.56; CI 1.52 to 4.30, p<0.001) both increased with Teach-Back. No harms were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Teach-Back appears to benefit telephone health service users with inadequate health literacy, but the extent of this is unclear due to smaller numbers of lower literacy participants. Improving caller ratings over time are likely due to increasing nurse communication competence.