1
|
Washington NL, Gangavarapu K, Zeller M, Bolze A, Cirulli ET, Schiabor Barrett KM, Larsen BB, Anderson C, White S, Cassens T, Jacobs S, Levan G, Nguyen J, Ramirez JM, Rivera-Garcia C, Sandoval E, Wang X, Wong D, Spencer E, Robles-Sikisaka R, Kurzban E, Hughes LD, Deng X, Wang C, Servellita V, Valentine H, De Hoff P, Seaver P, Sathe S, Gietzen K, Sickler B, Antico J, Hoon K, Liu J, Harding A, Bakhtar O, Basler T, Austin B, MacCannell D, Isaksson M, Febbo PG, Becker D, Laurent M, McDonald E, Yeo GW, Knight R, Laurent LC, de Feo E, Worobey M, Chiu CY, Suchard MA, Lu JT, Lee W, Andersen KG. Emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in the United States. Cell 2021; 184:2587-2594.e7. [PMID: 33861950 PMCID: PMC8009040 DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2021.03.052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 197] [Impact Index Per Article: 65.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2021] [Revised: 02/25/2021] [Accepted: 03/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, first identified in the United Kingdom, has gained a foothold across the world. Using S gene target failure (SGTF) and SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing, we investigated the prevalence and dynamics of this variant in the United States (US), tracking it back to its early emergence. We found that, while the fraction of B.1.1.7 varied by state, the variant increased at a logistic rate with a roughly weekly doubling rate and an increased transmission of 40%–50%. We revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the US as early as late November 2020, with community transmission spreading it to most states within months. We show that the US is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 became dominant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Karthik Gangavarapu
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
| | - Mark Zeller
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | | | | | | | - Brendan B Larsen
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Catelyn Anderson
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Emily Spencer
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Refugio Robles-Sikisaka
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Ezra Kurzban
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Laura D Hughes
- Department of Integrative, Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92122, USA
| | - Xianding Deng
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA
| | - Candace Wang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA
| | - Venice Servellita
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA
| | - Holly Valentine
- University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
| | - Peter De Hoff
- University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
| | - Phoebe Seaver
- University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
| | - Shashank Sathe
- University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Tracy Basler
- San Diego County Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA 92101, USA
| | - Brett Austin
- San Diego County Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA 92101, USA
| | - Duncan MacCannell
- Office of Advanced Molecular Detection, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Eric McDonald
- San Diego County Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA 92101, USA
| | - Gene W Yeo
- University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
| | - Rob Knight
- University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
| | | | | | - Michael Worobey
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Charles Y Chiu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158, USA; Innovative Genomics Institute, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Marc A Suchard
- Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, and Departments of Biomathematics and Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | | | | | - Kristian G Andersen
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA; Department of Integrative, Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92122, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Washington NL, Gangavarapu K, Zeller M, Bolze A, Cirulli ET, Barrett KMS, Larsen BB, Anderson C, White S, Cassens T, Jacobs S, Levan G, Nguyen J, Ramirez JM, Rivera-Garcia C, Sandoval E, Wang X, Wong D, Spencer E, Robles-Sikisaka R, Kurzban E, Hughes LD, Deng X, Wang C, Servellita V, Valentine H, De Hoff P, Seaver P, Sathe S, Gietzen K, Sickler B, Antico J, Hoon K, Liu J, Harding A, Bakhtar O, Basler T, Austin B, Isaksson M, Febbo PG, Becker D, Laurent M, McDonald E, Yeo GW, Knight R, Laurent LC, de Feo E, Worobey M, Chiu C, Suchard MA, Lu JT, Lee W, Andersen KG. Genomic epidemiology identifies emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in the United States. medRxiv 2021:2021.02.06.21251159. [PMID: 33564780 PMCID: PMC7872373 DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
As of January of 2021, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.), has gained a strong foothold across the world. Because of the sudden and rapid rise of B.1.1.7, we investigated the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the United States (U.S.), tracking it back to its early emergence and onward local transmission. We found that the RT-qPCR testing anomaly of S gene target failure (SGTF), first observed in the U.K., was a reliable proxy for B.1.1.7 detection. We sequenced 212 B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from testing facilities in the U.S. from December 2020 to January 2021. We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021. Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Karthik Gangavarapu
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA
| | - Mark Zeller
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA
| | | | | | | | - Brendan B. Larsen
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
| | - Catelyn Anderson
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Emily Spencer
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA
| | | | - Ezra Kurzban
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA
| | - Laura D. Hughes
- Department of Integrative, Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Xianding Deng
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
| | - Candace Wang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
| | - Venice Servellita
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Tracy Basler
- San Diego County Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA
| | - Brett Austin
- San Diego County Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA
| | | | | | | | | | - Eric McDonald
- San Diego County Health and Human Services Agency, San Diego, CA
| | | | | | | | | | - Michael Worobey
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
| | - Charles Chiu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
- Innovative Genomics Institute, Berkeley, CA
| | - Marc A. Suchard
- Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, and Departments of Biomathematics and Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA
| | | | | | - Kristian G. Andersen
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA
- Scripps Research Translational Institute, La Jolla, CA
| |
Collapse
|