Incorporating platinum circular economy into China's hydrogen pathways toward carbon neutrality

Hydrogen is gaining tremendous traction in China as the fuel of the future to support the country's carbon neutrality ambition. Despite that hydrogen as fuel largely hinges on the supply of platinum (Pt), the dynamic interlinkage between Pt supply challenges, hydrogen development pathways, and climate targets in China has yet to be deeply analyzed. Here, we adopt an integrated assessment model to address this important concern and corresponding strategies for China. The results indicate that the booming hydrogen development would drive China's cumulative demand for Pt metal to reach 4,200-5,000 tons. Much of this demand, met through a limited supply pattern, is vulnerable to price volatility and heightened geopolitical risks, which can be mitigated through circular economy strategies. Consequently, a coordinated approach to leverage both global sustainable Pt sourcing and a robust domestic Pt circular economy is imperative for ensuring cost-effective hydrogen production, aligned with a climate-safe future.

Higher total energy costs strain the elderly, especially low-income, across 31 developed countries

Addressing the total energy cost burden of elderly people is essential for designing equitable and effective energy policies, especially in responding to energy crisis in an aging society. It is due to the double impact of energy price hikes on households-through direct impact on fuel bills and indirect impact on the prices of goods and services consumed. However, while examining the household energy cost burden of the elderly, their indirect energy consumption and associated cost burden remain poorly understood. This study quantifies and compares the direct and indirect energy footprints and associated total energy cost burdens for different age groups across 31 developed countries. It reveals that the elderly have larger per capita energy footprints, resulting from higher levels of both direct and indirect energy consumption compared with the younger age groups. More importantly, the elderly, especially the low-income elderly, have a higher total energy cost burden rate. As the share of elderly in the total population rapidly grows in these countries, the larger per capita energy footprint and associated cost burden rate of elderly people would make these aging countries more vulnerable in times of energy crises. It is therefore crucial to develop policies that aim to reduce energy consumption and costs, improve energy efficiency, and support low-income elderly populations. Such policies are necessary to reduce the vulnerability of these aging countries to the energy crisis.

Health-environment efficiency of diets shows nonlinear trends over 1990-2011

Understanding the impacts of diets on health and the environment, as well as their association with socio-economic development, is key to operationalize and monitor food systems shifts. Here we propose a health-environment efficiency indicator defined as a ratio of health benefits and four key food-related environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, scarcity-weighted water withdrawal, acidifying and eutrophying emissions) to assess how diets have performed in supporting healthy lives in relation to environmental pollution and resource consumption across 195 countries from 1990 to 2011. We find that the health-environment efficiency of each environmental input follows a nonlinear path along the Socio-Demographic Index gradient representing different development levels. Health-environment efficiency first increases thanks to the elimination of child and maternal malnutrition through greater food supply, then decreases driven by additional environmental impacts from a shift to animal products, and finally shows a slow growth in some developed countries again as they shift towards healthier diets.

A net-zero emissions strategy for China's power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage

Decarbonized power systems are critical to mitigate climate change, yet methods to achieve a reliable and resilient near-zero power system are still under exploration. This study develops an hourly power system simulation model considering high-resolution geological constraints for carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage to explore the optimal solution for a reliable and resilient near-zero power system. This is applied to 31 provinces in China by simulating 10,450 scenarios combining different electricity storage durations and interprovincial transmission capacities, with various shares of abated fossil power with carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage. Here, we show that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel power generation in the power system could reduce the national total power shortage rate by up to 9.0 percentages in 2050 compared with a zero fossil fuel system. A lowest-cost scenario with 16% abated fossil fuel power generation in the system even causes 2.5% lower investment costs in the network (or $16.8 billion), and also increases system resilience by reducing power shortage during extreme climatic events.

Revealing Trade Potential for Reversing Regional Freshwater Boundary Exceedance

Applying the planetary boundary for the freshwater framework at the regional level is important in supporting local water management but is subject to substantial uncertainty. Previous estimates have not fully investigated the potential of trade in mitigating regional freshwater boundary (RFB) exceedance. Here, we estimate RFB based on the average results of 15 different hydrological models to reduce uncertainty. We then propose a framework to divide the RFB exceedance/maintenance into contributions from both consumption and trade and further identify trade contribution into six types. We applied the framework to China's provinces, which are characterized by intensive interprovincial trade and a significant mismatch in water resource supply and demand. We found that the current trade pattern limits the role of trade to mitigate RFB exceedance. For the importing provinces exceeding RFBs, 78% of their imported goods and services came from other RFB exceeding provinces. Scenario analysis showed that relying on increased imports alone, even to its greatest extent, will not reverse RFB exceedance in most importing provinces. Increased imports, however, will have an aggregate effect on the trade partners, leading to the exceedance of the national freshwater boundary. We also found that promoting export of goods and services from non-RFB exceeding provinces and reducing their water intensity will help address the imbalance both locally and, in the aggregate, nationally.

Implementation of carbon pricing in an aging world calls for targeted protection schemes

Understanding the impact of climate fiscal policies on vulnerable groups is a prerequisite for equitable climate mitigation. However, there has been a lack of attention to the impacts of such policies on the elderly, especially the low-income elderly, in existing climate policy literature. Here, we quantify and compare the distributional impacts of carbon pricing on different age-income groups in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan and then on different age groups in other 28 developed countries. We find that the elderly are more vulnerable to carbon pricing than younger groups in the same income group. In particular, the low-income elderly and elderly in less wealthy countries face greater challenges because carbon pricing lead to both higher rate of increase in living cost among low-income elderly and greater income inequality within the same age group. In addition, the low-income elderly would benefit less than the younger groups within the same income group in the commonly proposed carbon revenues recycling schemes. The high vulnerability of the low-income elderly to carbon pricing calls for targeted social protection along with climate mitigation polices toward an aging world.

Changes in global food consumption increase GHG emissions despite efficiency gains along global supply chains

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to food consumption complement production-based or territorial accounts by capturing carbon leaked through trade. Here we evaluate global consumption-based food emissions between 2000 and 2019 and underlying drivers using a physical trade flow approach and structural decomposition analysis. In 2019, emissions throughout global food supply chains reached 30 ±9% of anthropogenic GHG emissions, largely triggered by beef and dairy consumption in rapidly developing countries-while per capita emissions in developed countries with a high percentage of animal-based food declined. Emissions outsourced through international food trade dominated by beef and oil crops increased by ~1 Gt CO₂ equivalent, mainly driven by increased imports by developing countries. Population growth and per capita demand increase were key drivers to the global emissions increase (+30% and +19%, respectively) while decreasing emissions intensity from land-use activities was the major factor to offset emissions growth (-39%). Climate change mitigation may depend on incentivizing consumer and producer choices to reduce emissions-intensive food products.

Large Virtual Transboundary Hazardous Waste Flows: The Case of China

The Basel Convention and prior studies mainly focused on the physical transboundary movements of hazardous waste (transporting waste from one region to another for cheaper disposal). Here, we take China, the world's largest waste producer, as an example and reveal the virtual hazardous waste flows in trade (outsourcing waste by importing waste-intensive products) by developing a multiregional input-output model. Our model characterizes the impact of international trade between China and 140 economies and China's interprovincial trade on hazardous waste generated by 161,599 Chinese enterprises. We find that, in 2015, virtual hazardous waste flows in China's trade reached 26.6 million tons (67% of the national total), of which 31% were generated during the production of goods that were ultimately consumed abroad. Trade-related production is much dirtier than locally consumed production, generating 26% more hazardous waste per unit of GDP. Under the impact of virtual flows, 40% of the waste-intensive production and relevant disposal duty is unequally concentrated in three Chinese provinces (including two least-developed ones, Qinghai and Xinjiang). Our findings imply the importance of expanding the scope of transboundary waste regulations and provide a quantitative basis for introducing consumer responsibilities. This may help relieve waste management burdens in less-developed "waste havens".

Allocating capital-associated CO2 emissions along the full lifespan of capital investments helps diffuse emission responsibility

Capital assets such as machinery and infrastructure contribute substantially to CO₂ emissions over their lifetime. Unique features of capital assets such as their long durability complicate the assignment of capital-associated CO₂ emissions to final beneficiaries. Whereas conventional approaches allocate emissions required to produce capital assets to the year of formation, we propose an alternative perspective through allocating required emissions from the production of assets over their entire lifespans. We show that allocating CO₂ emissions embodied in capital assets over time relieves emission responsibility for the year of formation, with 25‒46% reductions from conventional emission accounts. This temporal allocation, although virtual, is important for assessing the equity of CO₂ emissions across generations due to the inertia of capital assets. To re-allocate emission responsibilities to the future, we design three capital investment scenarios with different investment purposes until 2030. Overall, the existing capital in 2017 will still carry approximately 10% responsibilities of China's CO₂ emissions in 2030, and could reach more than 40% for capital-intensive service sectors.

Impact of International Trade on the Carbon Intensity of Human Well-Being

There has been a longstanding debate about the impact of international trade on the environment and human well-being, yet there is little known about such environment and human well-being trade-off. Here, we explore the effect of international trade on the carbon intensity of human well-being (CIWB) globally under the current global trade system and a hypothetical no-trade scenario. We found that between 1995 and 2015, CIWB of 41% of countries declined and 59% of countries increased, caused by international trade, and this resulted in a reduction of the global CIWB and a decline in CIWB inequality between countries. International trade decreased CIWB for high- and upper-middle-income countries and increased CIWB for lower- and middle-income countries. In addition, our results also show that decreases in emission intensity are the most important driver of lower CIWB and the percentage contribution of emission intensity to the improvement in CIWB increases with income. The reduction of emission intensity, population growth, and increase in life expectancy all contribute to CIWB reduction, while the consumption level is the primary factor driving CIWB growth. Our results underscore the importance of studying the impact of international trade on the CIWB of countries at different stages of development.

Emission growth and drivers in Mainland Southeast Asian countries

Mainland Southeast Asian (MSEA) countries (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam) are likely to become one of the next hotspots for emission reduction, since CO₂ emissions in this area will have a two-thirds increase by 2040 due to rapid economy growth and associated energy consumption. As one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change, MSEA countries need to develop low-carbon roadmaps based on accurate emission data. This study provides emission inventories for MSEA countries for 2010-2019, based on the IPCC territorial emission accounting approach , including emissions from five types of fuels (i.e., coal, crude oil, oil products, natural gas, and biofuels & waste) used in 47 economic sectors. The results show that the emissions in MSEA countries are on the rise, with average annual growth rates ranging from 2.5% in Thailand to 19.3% in Laos. Biomass is one of the most important sources of carbon emissions, contributing between 11.8% and 76.7% of total carbon emissions, but its share has been declining in most countries, whereas the share of emissions from coal has risen sharply in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. We further examine the drivers behind the changes in emissions using index decomposition analysis. Economic growth was the strongest driver of growth in emissions, while population growth has only had a small effect on emission growth. Energy intensity varies widely across nations, but only significantly reduced CO₂ emission growth in Thailand. The secondary sector considerable contributed to an increase in CO₂ emissions in Laos and Vietnam, while the tertiary sector only moderately contributed to emissions in Thailand. Our study provides a better understanding of the composition and underlying factors of emission growth in MSEA countries, this could shape their low-carbon development pathway. Our results could also inform other emerging economies, which may become emission hotspots in the next decades, to develop low-carbon roadmaps, thereby contributing to the achievement of global climate change targets.

Optimizing the rolling out plan of China's carbon market

Although China has developed the world's largest carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS), there is no official documentation explaining how the current sectoral coverage plan was determined and what sectoral rollout plan is preferred. Here, we contribute to the policy development of the world's largest carbon market by suggesting a priority list of industries be covered in the ETS. We estimated marginal abatement cost curves using a database of more than two million firms covering over 500 four-digit industries that account for more than 97% of total industrial emissions, and simulating various carbon market scenarios including thermal power, 13 designated, and an additional 50 industries that have high emissions or are covered in other ETSs. Our analysis suggests that the cement industry should be the next sector to be included in China's ETS. In our revised list, the average abatement cost can be reduced by 39.5-78.3% compared with the business-as-usual scenario.

Contrasting suitability and ambition in regional carbon mitigation

Substantially enhancing carbon mitigation ambition is a crucial step towards achieving the Paris climate goal. Yet this attempt is hampered by poor knowledge on the potential cost and benefit of emission mitigation for each emitter. Here we use a global economic model to assess the mitigation costs for 27 major emitting countries and regions, and further contrast the costs against the potential benefits of mitigation valued as avoided social cost of carbon and the mitigation ambition of each region. We find a strong negative spatial correlation between cost and benefit of mitigating each ton of carbon dioxide. Meanwhile, the relative suitability of carbon mitigation, defined as the ratio of normalized benefit to normalized cost, also shows a considerable geographical mismatch with the mitigation ambition of emitters indicated in their first submitted nationally determined contributions. Our work provides important information to improve concerted climate action and formulate more efficient carbon mitigation strategies.

New study finds geographical mismatch in cross-regional ranking between cost and benefit of carbon mitigation, as well as spatial mismatch between relative suitability of mitigation and mitigation ambition of emitters.

Greenhouse gas emissions from municipal wastewater treatment facilities in China from 2006 to 2019

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) alleviate water pollution but also induce resource consumption and environmental impacts especially greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Mitigating GHG emissions of WWTPs can contribute to achieving carbon neutrality in China. But there is still a lack of a high-resolution and time-series GHG emission inventories of WWTPs in China. In this study, we construct a firm-level emission inventory of WWTPs for CH4, N2O and CO2 emissions from different wastewater treatment processes, energy consumption and effluent discharge for the time-period from 2006 to 2019. We aim to develop a transparent, verifiable and comparable WWTP GHG emission inventory to support GHG mitigation of WWTPs in China.

Countermeasures against economic crisis from COVID-19 pandemic in China: An analysis of effectiveness and trade-offs

The effectiveness of different countermeasures to economic crisis from the public health emergency is still inadequately understood. We establish an illustrative scenario, specifying the shocks of COVID-19 pandemic and countermeasures applying a general equilibrium model to analyze the effectiveness of countermeasures with a particular focus on trade-offs in the impacts of monetary and fiscal policies. We find that both monetary and fiscal countermeasures could effectively mitigate the economic damages to GDP and employment. However, they would also produce adverse side-effects such as an increase in consumer price by 1.05% and 0.57%, respectively, and a decline in exports by 2.61% and 1.05%, respectively. Monetary policies would exacerbate the damages to external demand by supply-side shocks of the pandemic, but they are more suitable for mitigating demand-side shocks. While fiscal policies would benefit nearly all producing sectors, monetary policies would mainly affect export-oriented manufacturing sectors negatively.

Implications of COVID-19 lockdowns on surface passenger mobility and related CO2 emission changes in Europe

The coronavirus pandemic has severely affected our daily lives, with direct consequences on passenger transport. This in turn has strongly impacted the energy demand of the transport sector and associated CO2 emissions. We analyse near real-time passenger mobility and related emission trends in Europe between 21 January and 21 September 2020. We compiled a dataset of country-, sector- and lockdown- specific values, representing daily activity changes in private, public, and active passenger transport. In the aggregate, surface passenger transport emissions fell by 11.2% corresponding to 40.3 MtCO2 in Europe. This decline was predominantly due to the reduction of private passenger transport in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). During the first lockdown in April 2020, CO2 emissions from surface passenger transport declined by 50% in Europe, resulting in a 7.1% reduction in total CO2 emissions. After April 2020, private passenger travel recovered rapidly, while public passenger flows remained low. Solely prompted by the private sector, a rebound in total emissions and surface passenger transport emissions of 1.5% and 10.7%, respectively, was estimated at the end of the study period. The resulting situation of increased private and decreased public passenger transport is in contradiction to major climate goals, and without reversing these trends, emission reductions, as stated in the European Green Deal are unlikely to be achieved. Our study provides an analysis based on a detailed and timely set of data of surface passenger transport and points to options to grasp the momentum for innovative changes in passenger mobility.

Reducing Carbon Footprint Inequality of Household Consumption in Rural Areas: Analysis from Five Representative Provinces in China

Household consumption carbon footprint and inequality reductions are vital for a sustainable society, especially for rural areas. This study, focusing on rural China, one of the fastest growing economies with a massive population, explored the carbon footprint and inequality of household consumption using the latest micro household survey data of 2018 linked to environmental extended input--output analysis. The results show that in 2018 in rural China, the average household carbon footprint is 2.46 tons CO₂-eq per capita, which is around one-third of China's average footprint, indicating the large potential for further growth. Housing (45.32%), transportation (20.45%), and food (19.62%) are the dominant contributors to the carbon footprint. Meanwhile, great inequality, with a Gini coefficient of 0.488, among rural households is observed, which is largely due to differences in type of house built or purchased (explaining 24.44% of the variation), heating (18.10%), car purchase (12.44%), and petrol consumption (12.44%). Provinces, average education, and nonfarm income are among the important factors influencing the inequality. In the process of urbanization and rural revitalization, there is a high possibility that the household carbon footprint continues to increase, maintaining high levels of inequality. The current energy transition toward less carbon-intensive fuels in rural China is likely to dampen the growth rates of carbon footprints and potentially decrease inequality. Carbon intensity decrease could significantly reduce carbon footprints, but increase inequality. More comprehensive measures to reduce carbon footprint and inequality are needed, including transitioning to clean energy, poverty alleviation, reduction of income inequality, and better health care coverage.

Shifts towards healthy diets in the US can reduce environmental impacts but would be unaffordable for poorer minorities

Environmental implications of food choice are the focus of increasingly extensive research, but less is known about the impacts of dietary patterns of different socio-economic groups of a country, and the trade-offs between nutritional quality and environmental impacts of diet within those groups. We evaluate the impacts of US household dietary patterns on greenhouse gas emissions, blue water footprint, land use and energy consumption across supply chains using an environmentally extended input-output analysis. We compare the nutritional quality of these dietary patterns using healthy eating index scores across individuals' income and other socio-economic characteristics. Individuals with higher income or education levels are more likely to adopt healthier diets but are also responsible for larger environmental impacts of diet primarily due to a higher consumption of dairy and livestock products, seafood and items with lower energy density but higher nutrient density. Our optimization shows that a healthy diet with lower environmental impacts is achievable within current food budgets for almost 95% of people, and results in average decreases of 2% in food-related greenhouse gas emissions, 24% in land use and 4% in energy consumption, but a 28% increase in blue water consumption. However, such dietary patterns are unaffordable for 38% of Black and Hispanic individuals in the lowest income and education groups. Policies that affect income and food prices making nutritious food more affordable would be needed to achieve better nutrition and improved environmental outcomes simultaneously, particularly for more vulnerable socio-economic groups.

A global North-South division line for portraying urban development

Rapid urbanization has tremendously changed the global landscape with profound impacts on our society. Nighttime light (NTL) data can provide valuable information about human activities and socioeconomic conditions thus has become an effective proxy to measure urban development. By using NTL-derived urban measures from 1992 to 2018, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of global urban development from country to region to city scales, which presented a distinct North-South divergence characterized by the rising and declining patterns. A global North-South division line was identified to partition the globe into the Line-North and the Line-South geographically, which accorded with the socioeconomic difference from the aspects of urban population and economy. This line may keep a certain degree of stability deriving from the trends of population and economic information but also bears uncertainties in the long term.

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Nighttime light performs well in measuring global urban development at multi-scales

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A North-South division line splits global urban development patterns geographically

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The socioeconomic difference accords with the proposed North-South division line

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The North-South division line may keep stable but also bears uncertainties

Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China

Sustainable water management is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is characterized by a high level of interdependencies with other SDGs from regional to global scales. Many water assessment studies are restricted to silo thinking, mostly focusing on water-related consequences, while lacking a quantification of trade-offs and synergies of economic, social, and environmental dimensions. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a "nexus" approach that integrates a water supply constrained multi-regional input-output (mixed MRIO) model, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to quantify the trade-offs and synergies at the sectoral level for the capital region of China, i.e. the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. A total of 120 industrial transition scenarios including nine major industries with high water-intensities and water consumption under current development pathways were developed to facilitate the trade-off and synergy analysis between economic loss, social goals (here, the number of jobs) and environmental protection (with grey water footprint representing water pollution) triggered by water conservation measures. Our simulation results show that an imposition of a tolerable water constraint (a necessary water consumption reduction for regional water stress level to move from severe to moderate) in the region would result in an average economic loss of 68.4 (± 16.0) billion Yuan (1 yuan ≈ 0.158 USD$ in 2012), or 1.3 % of regional GDP, a loss of 1.94 (± 0.18) million jobs (i.e. 3.5 % of the work force) and a reduction of 1.27 (± 0.40) billion m³ or about 2.2% of the regional grey water footprint. A tolerable water rationing in water-intensive sectors such as Agriculture, Food and tobacco processing, Electricity and heating power production and Chemicals would result in the lowest economic and job losses and the largest environmental benefits. Based on MCDA, we selected the 10 best scenarios with regard to their economic, social and environmental performances as references for guiding future water management and suggested industrial transition policies. This integrated approach could be a powerful policy support tool for 1) assessing trade-offs and synergies among multiple criteria and across multiple region-sectors under resource constraints; 2) quantifying the short-term supply-chain effects of different containment measures, and 3) facilitating more insightful evaluation of SDGs at the regional level so as to determine priorities for local governments and practitioners to achieve SDGs.

Household carbon and energy inequality in Latin American and Caribbean countries

Reducing inequality, eradicating poverty and achieving a carbon-neutral society are recognized as important components of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. In this study, we focus on carbon and energy inequality between and within ten Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Detailed carbon and energy footprint were estimated by combining the consumption profiles (2014) in ten LAC countries with environmental extended multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis. Our results show significant inequality of regional total and per capita carbon and energy footprint across the studied LAC countries in 2014. The top 10% income category was responsible for 29.1% and 26.3% of the regional total carbon and energy footprint, and their per capita carbon and energy footprint were 12.2 and 7.5 times of the bottom 10% earners in that region. The average carbon footprint of studied LAC countries varied between 0.53 and 2.21 t CO₂e/cap (ton of CO₂ equivalent, per capita), and the energy footprint ranged from 0.38 to 1.76 t SOE/cap (ton of Standard Oil Equivalent, per capita). The huge difference in total and per capita carbon emissions and energy consumption of different income groups suggests notable differences in climate change responsibility, and supports policies for achieving sustainable consumption in terms of carbon tax, renewable energy subsidy, and decarbonizing the consumption structure in different LAC countries.

Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.

Decline of net SO2 emission intensity in China's thermal power generation: Decomposition and attribution analysis

Thermal power generation is the main electricity source of China, but also contributes the largest share of air pollutants in the country. Because of China's considerable efforts in pollution control, one measure of the most important source of air pollution net SO₂ emission intensity (NSEI) of thermal power generation has dropped significantly since 2006. Understanding the reasons behind the decline could help further explore the solution-space for deeper mitigation targets. This study combines multiplicative LMDI with attribution analysis to decompose the decline in national NSEI into four factors (i.e. SO₂ treatment or end-of-pipe approaches; SO₂ emission factor of coal and coal intensity, which both account for cleaner production measures; and geographical structure effects) for 30 regions. Our results show that end-of-pipe technologies remained the primary way to control air pollution in China. In addition, cleaner production efforts contributed to SO₂ mitigation. Attribution results at the province level show that northern provinces increased their efforts in SO₂ treatment and reducing coal intensity, while southern provinces have done more on reducing the SO₂ intensity of coal. Provinces were classified into four categories (i.e. leading regions, end-of-pipe dependent regions, process-dependent regions and lagging regions) according to their performance in terms of end-of-pipe treatment and cleaner production, to help them choose targeted policy methods.

Drivers toward a Low-Carbon Electricity System in China's Provinces

Decarbonization of the power sector is one of the most important efforts to meet the climate mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement. China's power sector is of global importance, accounting for ∼25% of global electricity production in 2015. The carbon intensity of China's electricity is still much higher than the global average, but the country has made important strides toward a low-carbon transition based on two main pillars: improvement of energy efficiency and decreasing the share of fossil fuels. By applying a decoupling indicator, our study shows that 21 provinces achieved a "relative decoupling" of carbon emissions and electricity production and the remaining nine provinces achieved "absolute decoupling" between 2005 and 2015. We updated China's emission factors based on the most recent data by also considering the quality of imported coal and compared our results with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change coefficients to show the sensitivity of results and the potential error. Our decomposition analysis shows that improvement of energy efficiency was the dominant driver for decarbonization of 16 provincial power sectors, while the access to low-carbon electricity and substitution of natural gas for coal and oil further accelerated their decarbonization.

Tension of Agricultural Land and Water Use in China's Trade: Tele-Connections, Hidden Drivers and Potential Solutions

Interregional trade can potentially extend the management of scarce resources beyond a region's territory along supply chains. Here we combined the multiregional input-output model with structural decomposition analysis to reveal the distant connections of agricultural land and water use as well as the drivers behind their variations in China. Our results show that trade-embodied agricultural land use increase by 2.3-fold and 2.5-fold for virtual agricultural water use flows from 2002 to 2012. The water-starved northern China with abundant agricultural land is the main exporter of virtual (also called trade-embodied) agricultural land and water. Moreover, the role of the virtual water use importers and exporters were determined by the availability of land, rather than water resources. Based on scenario analysis, we found that if agricultural water use efficiency of north China reached the world's top-level but agricultural land use efficiency remained unchanged, the virtual water flows would be reduced by 32% and only water resources, not agricultural land, would be able to sustain future economic development. Our findings may provide significant information for potential solutions to China's regional water shortage from a land-water nexus perspective.

China CO2 emission accounts 2016-2017

Despite China's emissions having plateaued in 2013, it is still the world's leading energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for approximately 30% of global emissions. Detailed CO2 emission inventories by energy and sector have great significance to China's carbon policies as well as to achieving global climate change mitigation targets. This study constructs the most up-to-date CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces, as well as their energy inventories for the years 2016 and 2017. The newly compiled inventories provide key updates and supplements to our previous emission dataset for 1997-2015. Emissions are calculated based on IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) administrative territorial scope that covers all anthropogenic emissions generated within an administrative boundary due to energy consumption (i.e. energy-related emissions from 17 fossil fuel types) and industrial production (i.e. process-related emissions from cement production). The inventories are constructed for 47 economic sectors consistent with the national economic accounting system. The data can be used as inputs to climate and integrated assessment models and for analysis of emission patterns of China and its regions.

Physical and virtual carbon metabolism of global cities

Urban activities have profound and lasting effects on the global carbon balance. Here we develop a consistent metabolic approach that combines two complementary carbon accounts, the physical carbon balance and the fossil fuel-derived gaseous carbon footprint, to track carbon coming into, being added to urban stocks, and eventually leaving the city. We find that over 88% of the physical carbon in 16 global cities is imported from outside their urban boundaries, and this outsourcing of carbon is notably amplified by virtual emissions from upstream activities that contribute 33–68% to their total carbon inflows. While 13–33% of the carbon appropriated by cities is immediately combusted and released as CO₂, between 8 and 24% is stored in durable household goods or becomes part of other urban stocks. Inventorying carbon consumed and stored for urban metabolism should be given more credit for the role it can play in stabilizing future global climate.

Activities in cities are important drivers of global carbon fluxes. Here the authors trace the carbon metabolism in 16 global cities in terms of both physical and virtual carbon inflows, stock changes and outflows in relation to the supply chains of urban production and consumption and show that the total carbon impacts of global cities are found to be highly varied in either per capita, intensity or density measures.

Global urban expansion offsets climate-driven increases in terrestrial net primary productivity

The global urbanization rate is accelerating; however, data limitations have far prevented robust estimations of either global urban expansion or its effects on terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP). Here, using a high resolution dataset of global land use/cover (GlobeLand30), we show that global urban areas expanded by an average of 5694 km² per year between 2000 and 2010. The rapid urban expansion in the past decade has in turn reduced global terrestrial NPP, with a net loss of 22.4 Tg Carbon per year (Tg C year⁻¹). Although small compared to total terrestrial NPP and fossil fuel carbon emissions worldwide, the urbanization-induced decrease in NPP offset 30% of the climate-driven increase (73.6 Tg C year⁻¹) over the same period. Our findings highlight the urgent need for global strategies to address urban expansion, enhance natural carbon sinks, and increase agricultural productivity.

Robust estimates of either urban expansion worldwide or the effects of such phenomenon on terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) are lacking. Here the authors used the new dataset of global land use to show that the global urban areas expanded largely between 2000 and 2010, which in turn reduced terrestrial NPP globally.

Environmental taxation and regional inequality in China

In order to combat environmental pollution, China enacted the Environmental Protection Tax Law in early 2018. Yet the impacts of the environmental tax on individual regions with different socioeconomic statuses, which are crucial for social justice and public acceptance, remain unclear. Based on a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) table and a nationally regulated tax payment calculation method, this study analyzes the distributional impacts of an environmental tax based upon province's consumption from both inter-provincial and rural-urban aspects. The national tax revenue based on the current levy mechanism is estimated to be only one seventh of the economic loss from premature mortality caused by ambient particulate matter (PM_2.5). The taxation may slightly alleviate urban-rural inequality but may not be helpful with reducing inter-provincial inequality. We further analyze two alternative levy mechanisms. If each province imposes taxes to products it consumes (rather than produces, as in the current mechanism), with the tax rate linearly dependent on its per capita consumption expenditure, this would moderately increase the national tax revenue and significantly reduce inter-provincial inequality. To better compensate for the economic costs of air pollution and reduce regional inequality, it would be beneficial to increase the tax rate nationwide and implement a levy mechanism based on provincially differentiated levels of consumption and economic status.

Virtual flows of aquatic heavy metal emissions and associated risk in China

Heavy metal pollution is posing a serious threat to ecosystem and human health in China. In addition to being emitted into the atmosphere, heavy metals generated by industrial processes are also emitted into water bodies. However, there is a lack of research exploring trade-induced aquatic heavy metals (AHM) emissions hidden in cross-regional supply chain networks. Such information can provide both consumer and producer perspectives on stakeholders' responsibility and involve them in pollution control along the entire supply chain including influencing consumption choices. Using a bottom-up AHM emission inventory (including mercury (Hg), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), arsenic (As), and lead (Pb)) in 2010, we firstly accounted for production- and consumption-based AHM emissions and their virtual flows between China's 30 provinces. Additionally, we developed an integrated index, i.e. Equal Risk Pollution Load, to measure the risk associated with five AHM based on the corresponding reference dose. We found that richer provinces Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang through their consumption of metal products caused aquatic Hg, Cd, As and Pb pollution in provinces with nonferrous-metallic mineral resources such as Hunan, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia. However, virtual aquatic Cr emissions were incurred in richer coastal regions (e.g. Guangdong, Zhejiang) for producing and exporting high value added products (electroplated products, printed circuit board and leather products) to less developed inland provinces. Finally, we propose measures from a supply chain perspective to mitigate aquatic pollution.

Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Here we show that in contrast to a free trade world, with the emission intensity in each sector unchanged, an extremely anti-trade scenario with current tariffs plus an additional 25% tariff on each traded product would reduce the global export volume by 32.5%, gross domestic product by 9.0%, carbon dioxide by 6.3%, and PM2.5-related mortality by 4.1%. The respective impacts would be substantial for the United States, Western Europe and China. A freer trade scenario would increase global carbon dioxide emission and air pollution due to higher levels of production, especially in developing regions with relatively high emission intensities. Global collaborative actions to reduce emission intensities in developing regions could help achieve an economic-environmental win-win state through globalization.

Impacts of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage in China

Urban expansion is one of the main factors driving terrestrial carbon storage (TCS) changes. Accurate accounting of TCS and rigorous quantification of its changes caused by historical urban expansion may help us to better predict its changes in the future. This study focuses on the carbon impacts of urbanization in China where the share of the urban population has increased from 18% in 1978 to 59% in 2017 and the growing will continue in the coming decades. Our results show that China's TCS decreased at an accelerating pace over the past three decades with an average reduction of 0.72TgC/y in 1980-1990 and 8.72TgC/y in 2000-2010, mostly due to conversion from cropland and woodland to urban land. Through simulating urban expansion under four scenarios from 2010 to 2050, we found a potential increasing trend in land conversion from woodland to urban land. This conversion trend would result in carbon storage loss at an average rate of 9.31TgC/y ∼ 12.94TgC/y in 2010-2050. The increasing trend in both land conversion and carbon storage loss is especially visible in the population centers of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Considering that the indirect emission effects of urbanization, such as farmland displacement, population migration, and land degradation, may be much larger, the overall emission impact of forthcoming urban expansion in China would increase the uncertainty of the nation's carbon emissions and potentially undermine China's targets as committed in the Paris Climate Agreement.

Environmental impacts of dietary quality improvement in China

Dietary-related risks rank top among all the health risks in many countries. The 2nd United Nations Sustainable Development Goal aims to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture. Yet whether improving nutritional quality also benefits the environment is still under-explored, particularly for developing countries. China is an interesting and important case because of its rapidly changing dietary patterns distinct from the western countries studied in the literature, sub-national level heterogeneity, socio-economic characteristics and lifestyles, as well as its considerable population. This paper evaluates greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water consumption, and land appropriation resulting from shifting the Chinese population to healthy diets. We quantify the environmental impacts of individual diets using the latest available data of China Health and Nutrition Survey (2011), and compare them with the environmental impacts of suggested healthy dietary patterns in accordance with the 2016 Chinese Dietary Guidelines. If all Chinese would follow healthy diets rather than their current diets revealed in the survey, GHG emissions, water consumption, and land occupation would increase by 7.5% (63.9 Mt CO₂e annually), 53.5% (510 billion m³), and 54.2% (1256 billion m²), respectively. Urban and high-income groups have higher diet-related environmental impacts but could achieve less additional environmental impacts when moving to healthier diets. These findings indicate an expense of increased GHG emissions, and consumption of water and land resources in improving health. They also highlight the need to focus on the effects of improved economic conditions and urbanization in reconciling environmental impacts and human nutritional adequacy.

Enhancing socio-ecological resilience in coastal regions through collaborative science, knowledge exchange and social networks: A case study from the Deal Island Peninsula, USA

Collaborative science brings together diverse stakeholders to share knowledge and form networks that in turn can be foundational to policies and practices to increase socio-ecological resilience. In this article we present results from a collaborative science project that employed collaborative learning methods to develop a network of local, regional, state and academic stakeholders. These stakeholders had little social interaction prior to the project, and represented a diversity of views, positions and responsibilities. They shared in common a concern for the effects of climate change on a coastal socio-ecological system and the desire to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance resilience. Through ethnographic and survey methods, we found that collaborative science and learning promoted the exchange of cultural and environmental knowledge and expertise among individuals who previously had no sustained interaction. Stakeholders perceived these exchanges as worthwhile in that they allowed individuals to express viewpoints and share knowledge and expertise, which was seen to have the potential to increase socio-ecological resilience. Our results suggest that social networks can emerge from collaborative science and learning projects, and can become formally organized and help foster opportunities to enhance socio-ecological resilience.

Explaining virtual water trade: A spatial-temporal analysis of the comparative advantage of land, labor and water in China

The well-known "virtual water hypothesis" states that water-deficient regions/countries could alleviate water stress through importing water-intensive products from water-abundant regions/countries. Although observed trading patterns do often not support this hypothesis, there is a lack of research to explore the reasons why trade patterns often do not support the intuitive virtual water hypothesis. To fill this important gap, we introduce comparative advantage theory in a quantitative way to track the driving forces of net virtual water export based on the spatial-temporal distribution of resource productivity and opportunity costs of land, labor and water use in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors across Chinese provinces between 1995 and 2015. The results show that regional differences in land productivity between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are the main forces determining the pattern of virtual water flows across major regions, and other resources such as labor and water have played only a limited role. Our study shows that the current market forces reflect the scarcity of land resources, but does not reflect the water scarcity in the context of interregional trade in China. Our findings suggest that the ongoing efforts to increase land productivity of agriculture in the southern regions would contribute to reducing water scarcity in the North and Northeast China Plain.

Clean air for some: Unintended spillover effects of regional air pollution policies

China has enacted a number of ambitious pollution control policies to mitigate air pollution in urban areas. Unintended side effects of these policies to other environmental policy arenas and regions have largely been ignored. To bridge this gap, we use a multiregional input-output model in combination with an atmospheric chemical transport model to simulate clean air policy scenarios and evaluate their environmental impacts on primary PM2.5 and secondary precursor emissions, as well as CO2 emissions and water consumption, in the target region and spillover effects to other regions. Our results show that the reduction in primary PM2.5 and secondary precursor emissions in the target regions comes at the cost of increasing emissions especially in neighboring provinces. Similarly, co-benefits of lower CO2 emissions and reduced water consumption in the target region are achieved at the expense of higher impacts elsewhere, through outsourcing production to less developed regions in China.

Social science perspectives on drivers of and responses to global climate change

This article provides a review of recent anthropological, archeological, geographical, and sociological research on anthropogenic drivers of climate change, with a particular focus on drivers of carbon emissions, mitigation and adaptation. The four disciplines emphasize cultural, economic, geographic, historical, political, and social-structural factors to be important drivers of and responses to climate change. Each of these disciplines has unique perspectives and makes noteworthy contributions to our shared understanding of anthropogenic drivers, but they also complement one another and contribute to integrated, multidisciplinary frameworks. The article begins with discussions of research on temporal dimensions of human drivers of carbon emissions, highlighting interactions between long-term and near-term drivers. Next, descriptions of the disciplines' contributions to the understanding of mitigation and adaptation are provided. It concludes with a summary of key lessons offered by the four disciplines as well as suggestions for future research. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change.

Revealing Environmental Inequality Hidden in China's Inter-regional Trade

Trade among regions or countries not only allows the exchange of goods and services but also leads to the transfer of pollution. The unequal exchange of goods and services and associated value added and pollution may be subject to environmental inequality in China given that Chinese provinces are in different development stages. By using the latest multiregional input-output tables and the sectoral air pollutant emission inventory in 2012, we traced emissions and value added along China's domestic supply chains. Here, we show that 62%-76% of the consumption-based air-pollutant emissions of richer regions (Beijing-Tianjin, East Coast and South Coast) were outsourced to other regions; however, approximately 70% of the value added triggered by these region's final consumption was retained within the region. Some provinces in western China, such as Guizhou, Ningxia, and Yunnan, not only incurred net pollution inflows but also suffered a negative balance of value added when trading with rich provinces. Addressing such inequalities could provide not only a basis for determining each province's responsibility for pollution control but also a model for other emerging economies.

City-level climate change mitigation in China

As national efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions intensify, policy-makers need increasingly specific, subnational information about the sources of CO₂ and the potential reductions and economic implications of different possible policies. This is particularly true in China, a large and economically diverse country that has rapidly industrialized and urbanized and that has pledged under the Paris Agreement that its emissions will peak by 2030. We present new, city-level estimates of CO₂ emissions for 182 Chinese cities, decomposed into 17 different fossil fuels, 46 socioeconomic sectors, and 7 industrial processes. We find that more affluent cities have systematically lower emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), supported by imports from less affluent, industrial cities located nearby. In turn, clusters of industrial cities are supported by nearby centers of coal or oil extraction. Whereas policies directly targeting manufacturing and electric power infrastructure would drastically undermine the GDP of industrial cities, consumption-based policies might allow emission reductions to be subsidized by those with greater ability to pay. In particular, sector-based analysis of each city suggests that technological improvements could be a practical and effective means of reducing emissions while maintaining growth and the current economic structure and energy system. We explore city-level emission reductions under three scenarios of technological progress to show that substantial reductions (up to 31%) are possible by updating a disproportionately small fraction of existing infrastructure.

Unequal Exchange of Air Pollution and Economic Benefits Embodied in China's Exports

As the world's factory, China has enjoyed huge economic benefits from international export but also suffered severe environmental consequences. Most studies investigating unequal environmental exchange associated with trade took China as a homogeneous entity ignoring considerable inequality and outsourcing of pollution within China. This paper traces the regional mismatch of export-induced economic benefits and environmental costs along national supply chains by using the latest multiregional input-output model and emission inventory for 2012. The results indicate that approximately 56% of the national GDP induced by exports has been received by developed coastal regions, while about 72% of air pollution embodied in national exports, measured as aggregated atmospheric pollutant equivalents (APE), has been mainly incurred by less developed central and western regions. For each yuan of export-induced GDP, developed regions only incurred 0.4-0.6 g APE emissions, whereas less developed regions from western or central China had to suffer 4-8 times the amount of emissions. This is due to poorer regions providing lower value added and higher emission-intensive inputs and having lower environmental standards and less efficient technologies. Our results may pave a way to mitigate the unequal relationship between developed and less developed regions from the perspective of environment-economy nexus.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis

This study seeks to estimate the carbon implications of recent changes in China's economic development patterns and role in global trade in the post-financial-crisis era. We utilised the latest socioeconomic datasets to compile China's 2012 multiregional input-output (MRIO) table. Environmentally extended input-output analysis and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) were applied to investigate the driving forces behind changes in CO2 emissions embodied in China's domestic and foreign trade from 2007 to 2012. Here we show that emission flow patterns have changed greatly in both domestic and foreign trade since the financial crisis. Some economically less developed regions, such as Southwest China, have shifted from being a net emission exporter to being a net emission importer. In terms of foreign trade, emissions embodied in China's exports declined from 2007 to 2012 mainly due to changes in production structure and efficiency gains, while developing countries became the major destination of China's export emissions.

Poverty eradication in a carbon constrained world

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to keep warming below 2 °C while recognizing developing countries’ right to eradicate extreme poverty. Poverty eradication is also the first of the Sustainable Development Goals. This paper investigates potential consequences for climate targets of achieving poverty eradication. We find that eradicating extreme poverty, i.e., moving people to an income above $1.9 purchasing power parity (PPP) a day, does not jeopardize the climate target even in the absence of climate policies and with current technologies. On the other hand, bringing everybody to a still modest expenditure level of at least $2.97 PPP would have long-term consequences on achieving emission targets. Compared to the reference mitigation pathway, eradicating extreme poverty increases the effort by 2.8% whereas bringing everybody to at least $2.97 PPP would increase the required mitigation rate by 27%. Given that the top 10% global income earners are responsible for 36% of the current carbon footprint of households; the discourse should address income distribution and the carbon intensity of lifestyles.

The consequences of poverty eradication on limiting warming to 2 °C are not fully clear. Here, Hubacek et al. find that while ending extreme poverty does not jeopardize the climate target, moving everybody to a modest expenditure level increases required mitigation rate by 27%

Uncovering the spatially distant feedback loops of global trade: A network and input-output approach

Land-use change is increasingly driven by global trade. The term "telecoupling" has been gaining ground as a means to describe how human actions in one part of the world can have spatially distant impacts on land and land-use in another. These interactions can, over time, create both direct and spatially distant feedback loops, in which human activity and land use mutually impact one another over great expanses. In this paper, we develop an analytical framework to clarify spatially distant feedbacks in the case of land use and global trade. We use an innovative mix of multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis and stochastic actor-oriented models (SAOMs) for analyzing the co-evolution of changes in trade network patterns with those of land use, as embodied in trade. Our results indicate that the formation of trade ties and changes in embodied land use mutually impact one another, and further, that these changes are linked to disparities in countries' wealth. Through identifying this feedback loop, our results support ongoing discussions about the unequal trade patterns between rich and poor countries that result in uneven distributions of negative environmental impacts. Finally, evidence for this feedback loop is present even when controlling for a number of underlying mechanisms, such as countries' land endowments, their geographical distance from one another, and a number of endogenous network tendencies.

Measuring the environmental sustainability performance of global supply chains: A multi-regional input-output analysis for carbon, sulphur oxide and water footprints

Measuring the performance of environmentally sustainable supply chains instead of chain constitute has become a challenge despite the convergence of the underlining principles of sustainable supply chain management. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that supply chains are inherently dynamic and complex and also because multiple measures can be used to characterize performances. By identifying some of the critical issues in the literature regarding performance measurements, this paper contributes to the existing body of literature by adopting an environmental performance measurement approach for economic sectors. It uses economic sectors and evaluates them on a sectoral level in specific countries as well as part of the Global Value Chain based on the established multi-regional input-output (MRIO) modeling framework. The MRIO model has been used to calculate direct and indirect (that is supply chain or upstream) environmental effects such as CO₂, SO₂, biodiversity, water consumption and pollution to name just a few of the applications. In this paper we use MRIO analysis to calculate emissions and resource consumption intensities and footprints, direct and indirect impacts, and net emission flows between countries. These are exemplified by using carbon emissions, sulphur oxide emissions and water use in two highly polluting industries; Electricity production and Chemical industry in 33 countries, including the EU-27, Brazil, India and China, the USA, Canada and Japan from 1995 to 2009. Some of the highlights include: On average, direct carbon emissions in the electricity sector across all 27 member states of the EU was estimated to be 1368 million tons and indirect carbon emissions to be 470.7 million tons per year representing 25.6% of the EU-27 total carbon emissions related to this sector. It was also observed that from 2004, sulphur oxide emissions intensities in electricity production in India and China have remained relatively constant at about 62.8 gSO_x/, respectively, $ and 84.4 gSO_x/$ although being higher than in other countries. In terms of water use, the high water use intensity in China (1040.27 L/$) and India (961.63 L/$), which are among the highest in the sector in the electricity sector is exacerbated by both countries being ranked as High Water Stress Risk countries. The paper also highlights many advantages of the MRIO approach including: a 15-year time series study (which provides a measurement of environmental performance of key industries and an opportunity to assess technical and technological change during the investigated time period), a supply chain approach that provides a consistent methodological framework and accounts for all upstream supply chain environmental impacts throughout entire global supply chains. The paper also discusses the implications of the study to environmental sustainability performance measurement in terms of the level of analysis from a value chain hierarchy perspective, methodological issues, performance indicators, environmental exchanges and policy relevance.

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as UN population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.