Adherence to an integrated care pathway for stroke is associated with lower risk of major cardiovascular events: A report from the Athens Stroke Registry

BACKGROUND

A recent European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Council on Stroke position paper proposed a holistic integrated care management approach for stroke patients, to improve cardiovascular outcomes. The impact of implementing the ABCstroke pathway 'concept' on clinical outcomes has never been estimated before. In order to investigate the potential effect of ABCstroke pathway adherence to cardiovascular outcomes post stroke, we performed a post-hoc analysis from the Athens Stroke Registry.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This analysis was performed in the Athens Stroke Registry, which includes all consecutive patients with acute first-ever ischemic stroke. The Kaplan-Meier product limit was used to estimate the cumulative hazard of each outcome according to adherence with the ABCstroke pathway. We studied 2513 patients [median (IQR) age 71 (62-78) years; 37.7 % female] with ischemic stroke with median follow-up period of 30 (6-75) months. Full adherence to the ABC pathway was identified in 156 (6.2 %) of the patients, while 192 (7.6 %) did not adhere to any of the therapeutic pillars of ABCstroke. Full adherence to ABC treatment pathway was associated with significant reduction of stroke recurrence, compared to patients with no or partial adherence (aHR: 0.61; 95 %CI: 0.37-0.99), as well as a lower risk of MACE (HR: 0.59; 0.39-0.88) and death (aHR: 0.22; 95 %CI: 0.12-0.41).

CONCLUSION

Full adherence to the ABCstroke pathway based on the current guidelines was evident in only 6.2 % of our ischaemic stroke cohort but was independently associated with lower risks of stroke recurrence, major cardiovascular events and mortality. This highlights a potential opportunity to improve clinical outcomes post-stroke with a holistic or integrated care management approach.

Quality Indicators and Clinical Outcomes of Acute Stroke: Results from a Prospective Multicenter Registry in Greece (SUN4P)

AIM

The Stroke Units Necessity for Patients (SUN4P) project aims to provide essential data on stroke healthcare in Greece. Herein, we present results on established quality indicators and outcomes after first-ever stroke occurrences.

METHODS

This prospective multicenter study included consecutive patients admitted to nine hospitals across Greece in 2019-2021. Descriptive statistics were used to present patients' characteristics, key performance measures and stroke outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 892 patients, 755 had ischemic stroke (IS) (mean age 75.6 ± 13.6, 48.7% males) and 137 had hemorrhagic stroke (HS) (mean age 75.8 ± 13.2, 57.7% males). Of those, 15.4% of IS and 8% of HS patients were treated in the acute stroke unit (ASU) and 20.7% and 33.8% were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) or high-dependency unit (HDU), respectively. A total of 35 (4.6%) out of 125 eligible patients received intravenous alteplase with a door-to needle time of 60 min (21-90). The time to first scan for IS patients was 60 min (31-105) with 53.2% undergoing a CT scan within 60 min post presentation. Furthermore, 94.4% were discharged on antiplatelets, 69.8% on lipid-lowering therapy and 61.6% on antihypertensives. Oral anticoagulants (OAC) were initiated in 73.2% of the 153 IS patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Among the 687 IS patients who survived, 85.4% were discharged home, 12% were transferred to rehabilitation centers, 1.2% to nursing homes and 1.3% to another hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

The SUN4P Registry is the first study to provide data from a prospectively collected cohort of consecutive patients from nine representative national hospitals. It represents an important step in the evaluation and improvement of the quality of acute stroke care in Greece.

The Cost and the Value of Stroke Care in Greece: Results from the SUN4P Study

The aim of this study was to measure the one-year total cost of strokes and to investigate the value of stroke care, defined as cost per QALY. The study population included 892 patients with first-ever acute strokes, hemorrhagic strokes, and ischemic strokes, (ICD-10 codes: I61, I63, and I64) admitted within 48 h of symptoms onset to nine public hospitals located in six cities. We conducted a bottom-up cost analysis from the societal point of view. All cost components including direct medical costs, productivity losses due to morbidity and mortality, and informal care costs were considered. We used an annual time horizon, including all costs for 2021, irrespective of the time of disease onset. The average cost (direct and indirect) was extrapolated in order to estimate the national annual burden associated with stroke. We estimated the total cost of stroke in Greece at EUR 343.1 mil. a year in 2021, (EUR 10,722/patient or EUR 23,308 per QALY). Out of EUR 343.1 mil., 53.3% (EUR 182.9 mil.) consisted of direct healthcare costs, representing 1.1% of current health expenditure in 2021. Overall, productivity losses were calculated at EUR 160.2 mil. The mean productivity losses were estimated to be 116 work days with 55.1 days lost due to premature retirement and absenteeism from work, 18.5 days lost due to mortality, and 42.4 days lost due to informal caregiving by family members. This study highlights the burden of stroke and underlines the need for stakeholders and policymakers to re-organize stroke care and promote interventions that have been proven cost-effective.

Midday Dipping and Circadian Blood Pressure Patterns in Acute Ischemic Stroke

The purpose of this study was to investigate the alterations in blood pressure (BP) during midday and the changes in circadian BP patterns in the acute phase of ischemic stroke (AIS) with the severity of stroke and their predictive role outcomes within 3 months. A total of 228 AIS patients (a prospective multicenter follow-up study) underwent 24 h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). Mean BP parameters during the day (7:00-22:59), the midday (13:00-16:59), and the night (23:00-6:59), and midday and nocturnal dipping were calculated. Midday SBP dippers had less severe stroke, lower incidence of hypertension and SBP/DBP on admission, lower levels of serum glucose and WBCs, and delayed initiation of ABPM compared to risers. There was a reverse relation between midday SBP dipping and both nocturnal dipping and stroke severity. The "double dippers" (midday and nocturnal dipping) had the least severe stroke, the lowest SBP/DBP on admission, the lowest heart rate from ABPM, and a lower risk of an unfavorable outcome, while the "double risers" had the opposite results, by an approximately five-fold risk of death/disability at 3 months. These findings indicate different circadian BP patterns during the acute phase of AIS, which could be considered a marker of stroke severity and prognosis.

Stroke Patients' Management During COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from the Sun4Patients Web-Based Registry

Covid-19 pandemic has influenced stroke care in different ways. Recent reports demonstrated a sharp decline in acute stroke admissions worldwide. Even for patients presented to dedicated healthcare services, management at the acute phase may be sub-optimal. On the other hand, Greece has been praised for the early initiation of restriction measures which were associated with a 'milder' surge of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods Data derived from a prospective cohort multicenter registry. The study population consisted of first-ever acute stroke patients, hemorrhagic or ischemic, admitted within 48 hours of symptom onset in seven national healthcare system (NHS) and University hospitals in Greece. Two different time periods have been considered, defined as "before Covid-19" (15/12/2019-15/02/2020) and "during Covid-19" (16/02/2020-15/04-2020) era. Statistical comparisons on acute stroke admission characteristics between the two different time periods have been performed. Results This exploratory analysis of 112 consecutive patients showed a reduction of acute stroke admissions by 40during Covid-19 period. No significant differences were observed regarding stroke severity, risk factor profile and baseline characteristics for patients admitted before and during Covid-19 pandemic period. There is a significant delay between symptom onset to CT scan during Covid-19 era compared to the period before pandemic reached Greece (p=0.03). Conclusions The rate of acute stroke admissions has been reduced by 40% during Covid-19 pandemic. Further research is needed to clarify whether the reduction in stroke volume is actual or not and identifying the reasons underlying the paradox.

Sinus rhythm restoration and improved outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke and in-hospital paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

AIMS

It is unclear whether early cardiac rhythm control is beneficial in patients with acute ischemic stroke and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). We sought to investigate whether PAF self-termination and in-hospital sinus rhythm (SR) restoration is associated with improved outcome in ischemic stroke patients with PAF, compared to those with sustained atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

Consecutive patients with first-ever acute stroke and confirmed PAF during hospitalization were followed for up to 10 years after the index stroke or until death. We investigated the association of in-hospital self-terminated PAF and PAF conversion to SR compared to sustained AF with 10-year all-cause mortality, stroke recurrence, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of each outcome.

RESULTS

Among 297 ischemic stroke patients with in-hospital PAF detection, PAF was self-terminated in 87 (29.3%) patients, while 143 (48.1%) patients received antiarrhythmic medication in order to achieve PAF conversion to SR. During a median (Interquartile range, IQR) period of 28 (4-68) months, among patients with self-terminated PAF there were 13.5 deaths, 3.6 stroke recurrences, and 5.3 MACE per 100 patient-year while in patients who underwent medical PAF conversion there were 11.7 deaths, 4.6 stroke recurrences, and 5.8 MACE per 100 patient-year. Patients with sustained AF experienced 23.8 deaths, 8.7 stroke recurrences, and 13.9 MACE per 100 patient-years. In multivariable analysis, compared to patients with sustained AF, PAF self-termination was associated with significantly lower 10 years-risk of death (adjusted hazards ratio (adjHR): HR: 0.63, 95% Confidence interval: 0.40-0.96), stroke recurrence (adjHR: HR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.19-0.91), and MACE (adjHR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.23-0.81), while PAF medical conversion to SR was associated with lower 10 years-risk of death (adjHR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.44-0.97) and MACE (adjHR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.33-0.95).

DISCUSSION

This study showed that in-hospital PAF self-termination was associated with lower risk of 10-year mortality, stroke recurrence, and MACE, potentially attributed to the lower burden of AF, whereas in-hospital PAF conversion to SR was associated with lower risk of 10-year mortality and MACE.

CONCLUSION

Early restoration of sinus rhythm is associated with improved survival and MACE in patients with acute ischemic stroke and PAF.

Case-Fatality and Functional Outcome after Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (SAH) in INternational STRoke oUtComes sTudy (INSTRUCT)

BACKGROUND

There are few large population-based studies of outcomes after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) than other stroke types.

METHODS

We pooled data from 13 population-based stroke incidence studies (10 studies from the INternational STRroke oUtComes sTudy (INSTRUCT) and 3 new studies; N=657). Primary outcomes were case-fatality and functional outcome (modified Rankin scale score 3-5 [poor] vs. 0-2 [good]). Harmonized patient-level factors included age, sex, health behaviours (e.g. current smoking at baseline), comorbidities (e.g.history of hypertension), baseline stroke severity (e.g. NIHSS >7) and year of stroke. We estimated predictors of case-fatality and functional outcome using Poisson regression and generalized estimating equations using log-binomial models respectively at multiple timepoints.

RESULTS

Case-fatality rate was 33% at 1 month, 43% at 1 year, and 47% at 5 years. Poor functional outcome was present in 27% of survivors at 1 month and 15% at 1 year. In multivariable analysis, predictors of death at 1-month were age (per decade increase MRR 1.14 [1.07-1.22]) and SAH severity (MRR 1.87 [1.50-2.33]); at 1 year were age (MRR 1.53 [1.34-1.56]), current smoking (MRR 1.82 [1.20-2.72]) and SAH severity (MRR 3.00 [2.06-4.33]) and; at 5 years were age (MRR 1.63 [1.45-1.84]), current smoking (MRR 2.29 [1.54-3.46]) and severity of SAH (MRR 2.10 [1.44-3.05]). Predictors of poor functional outcome at 1 month were age (per decade increase RR 1.32 [1.11-1.56]) and SAH severity (RR 1.85 [1.06-3.23]), and SAH severity (RR 7.09 [3.17-15.85]) at 1 year.

CONCLUSION

Although age is a non-modifiable risk factor for poor outcomes after SAH, however, severity of SAH and smoking are potential targets to improve the outcomes.

Estimation of the economic burden of atrial fibrillation-related stroke in Greece

Background: Stroke is aleading cause of death and disability, with atrial fibrillation (AF) being among key risk factors and AF-related stroke inflicting significant burden on healthcare systems and society. The present study was undertaken for estimating the total annual socioeconomic burden of AF-related stroke in Greece and identifying the key cost contributors.Research design and methods: A cost-of-illness model was developed for estimating the total annual economic burden of AF-related stroke in Greece, from asocietal perspective (year 2018). Atargeted literature review and an advisory board consisting of key experts in the management of AF and AF-related stroke were performed for collecting local resource use and epidemiological data.Results: The total annual socioeconomic burden of AF-related stroke was estimated at €175million, in 2018. Direct and indirect costs accounted for 59% and 41%, respectively. Main contributors were informal care (21.1%), patients' productivity losses (19.7%) and hospitalizations (15.0%), accounting for more than half of the total costs of AF-related stroke events.Conclusion: A F-related stroke imposes asignificant socioeconomic burden in Greece. Despite results relying on estimations, it seems that ensuring efficient reallocation of resources in appropriate prevention and early intervention strategies could decrease AF-related stroke's burden but also enhance healthcare systems' efficiency.Abbreviations: AF=atrial fibrillation.

Statin treatment and outcomes after embolic stroke of undetermined source

The association of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol lowering with outcomes in embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) patients is unclear. In these patients we aimed to assess the effect of statin on stroke recurrence, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and death rates. Consecutive ESUS patients in the Athens Stroke Registry were prospectively followed-up to 10 years for stroke recurrence, MACE, and death. The Nelson-Aalen estimator was used to estimate the cumulative probability by statin allocation at discharge and cox-regression analyses to investigate whether statin at discharge was a predictor of outcomes. Among 264 ESUS patients who were discharged and followed for 4 years, 89 (33.7%) were treated with statin at discharge. Patients who were discharged on statin had lower rates of stroke recurrence (3.58 vs. 7.23/100 patient-years, HR: 0.48; 95% CI 0.26-0.90), MACE (4.98 vs. 9.89/100 patient-years, HR: 0.49; 95% CI 0.29-0.85), and death (3.93 vs. 8.21/100 patient-years, HR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.28-0.89). In the multivariate analysis, statin treatment at discharge was an independent predictor of stroke recurrence (adjusted HR: 0.48; 95% CI 0.26-0.91), MACE (adjusted HR: 0.48; 95% CI 0.28-0.82), and death (adjusted HR: 0.50; 95% CI 0.27-0.93). Patients with ESUS discharged on statins have lower rates of stroke recurrence, MACE, and death compared to those not receiving statin therapy.

Machine-Learning-Derived Model for the Stratification of Cardiovascular risk in Patients with Ischemic Stroke

Background Stratification of cardiovascular risk in patients with ischemic stroke is important as it may inform management strategies. We aimed to develop a machine-learning-derived prognostic model for the prediction of cardiovascular risk in ischemic stroke patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two prospective stroke registries with consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients were used as training/validation and test datasets. The outcome assessed was major adverse cardiovascular event, defined as non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death during 2-year follow-up. The variables selection was performed with the LASSO technique. The algorithms XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting), Random Forest and Support Vector Machines were selected according to their performance. The evaluation of the classifier was performed by bootstrapping the dataset 1000 times and performing cross-validation by splitting in 60% for the training samples and 40% for the validation samples.

RESULTS

The model included age, gender, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, arterial hypertension, statin treatment before stroke onset, prior anticoagulant treatment (in case of atrial fibrillation), creatinine, cervical artery stenosis, anticoagulant treatment at discharge (in case of atrial fibrillation), and statin treatment at discharge. The best accuracy was measured by the XGBoost classifier. In the validation dataset, the area under the curve was 0.648 (95%CI:0.619-0.675) and the balanced accuracy was 0.58 ± 0.14. In the test dataset, the corresponding values were 0.59 and 0.576.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose an externally validated machine-learning-derived model which includes readily available parameters and can be used for the estimation of cardiovascular risk in ischemic stroke patients.

Temporal trends in stroke incidence and case-fatality rates in Arcadia, Greece: A sequential, prospective, population-based study

BACKGROUND

Stroke incidence and case-fatality are reported to decline in high-income countries during the last decades. Epidemiological studies are important for health services to organize prevention and treatment strategies.

AIMS

The aim of this population-based study was to determine temporal trends of stroke incidence and case-fatality rates of first-ever stroke in Arcadia, a prefecture in southern Greece.

METHODS

All first-ever stroke cases in the Arcadia prefecture were ascertained using the same standard criteria and multiple overlapping sources in three study periods: from November 1993 to October 1995; 2004; and 2015-2016. Crude and age-adjusted to European population incidence rates were compared using Poisson regression. Twenty-eight days case fatality rates were estimated and compared using the same method.

RESULTS

In total, 1315 patients with first-ever stroke were identified. The age-standardized incidence to the European population was 252 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 231-239) in 1993/1995, 252 (95% CI 223-286) in 2004, and 211 (192-232) in 2015/2016. The overall age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates fell by 16% (incidence rates ratio 0.84, 95% CI: 0.72-0.97). Similarly, 28-day case-fatality rate decreased by 28% (case fatality rate ratio = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.58-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

This population-based study reports a significant decline in stroke incidence and mortality rates in southern Greece between 1993 and 2016.

Recommendations for lipid modification in patients with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack: A clinical guide by the Hellenic Stroke Organization and the Hellenic Atherosclerosis Society

This document presents the consensus recommendations of the Hellenic Stroke Organization and the Hellenic Atherosclerosis Society for lipid modification in patients with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. This clinical guide summarizes the current literature on lipid management and can be of assistance to the physicians treating stroke patients in clinical practice.

Carotid Atherosclerosis and Patent Foramen Ovale in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

BACKGROUND

Carotid atherosclerosis and likely pathogenic patent foramen ovale (PFO) are two potential embolic sources in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). The relationship between these two mechanisms among ESUS patients remains unclear.

AIM

To investigate the relation between carotid atherosclerosis and likely pathogenic PFO in patients with ESUS. We hypothesized that ipsilateral carotid atherosclerotic plaques are less prevalent in ESUS with likely pathogenic PFO compared to patients with likely incidental PFO or without PFO.

METHODS

The presence of PFO was assessed with transthoracic echocardiography with microbubble test and, when deemed necessary, through trans-oesophageal echocardiography. The presence of PFO was considered as likely incidental if the RoPE (Risk of Paradoxical Embolism) score was 0-6 and likely pathogenic if 7-10.

RESULTS

Among 374 ESUS patients (median age: 61years, 40.4% women), there were 63 (49.6%) with likely incidental PFO, 64 (50.4%) with likely pathogenic PFO and 165 (44.1%) with ipsilateral carotid atherosclerosis. The prevalence of ipsilateral carotid atherosclerosis was lower in patients with likely pathogenic PFO (7.8%) compared to patients with likely incidental PFO (46.0%) or patients without PFO (53.0%) (p<0.001). After adjustment for multiple confounders, the prevalence of ipsilateral carotid atherosclerosis remained lower in patients with likely pathogenic PFO compared to patients with likely incidental PFO or without PFO (adjusted OR=0.32, 95%CI:0.104-0.994, p=0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of carotid atherosclerosis is inversely related to the presence of likely pathogenic PFO in patients with ESUS.

Data-driven machine-learning analysis of potential embolic sources in embolic stroke of undetermined source

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Hierarchical clustering, a common 'unsupervised' machine-learning algorithm, is advantageous for exploring potential underlying aetiology in particularly heterogeneous diseases. We investigated potential embolic sources in embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) using a data-driven machine-learning method, and explored variation in stroke recurrence between clusters.

METHODS

We used a hierarchical k-means clustering algorithm on patients' baseline data, which assigned each individual into a unique clustering group, using a minimum-variance method to calculate the similarity between ESUS patients based on all baseline features. Potential embolic sources were categorised into atrial cardiopathy, atrial fibrillation, arterial disease, left ventricular disease, cardiac valvulopathy, patent foramen ovale (PFO) and cancer.

RESULTS

Among 800 consecutive ESUS patients (43.3% women, median age 67 years), the optimal number of clusters was four. Left ventricular disease was most prevalent in cluster 1 (present in all patients) and perfectly associated with cluster 1. PFO was most prevalent in cluster 2 (38.9% of patients) and associated significantly with increased likelihood of cluster 2 [adjusted odds ratio: 2.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.64-4.41]. Arterial disease was most prevalent in cluster 3 (57.7%) and associated with increased likelihood of cluster 3 (adjusted odds ratio: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.43-3.13). Atrial cardiopathy was most prevalent in cluster 4 (100%) and perfectly associated with cluster 4. Cluster 3 was the largest cluster involving 53.7% of patients. Atrial fibrillation was not significantly associated with any cluster.

CONCLUSIONS

This data-driven machine-learning analysis identified four clusters of ESUS that were strongly associated with arterial disease, atrial cardiopathy, PFO and left ventricular disease, respectively. More than half of the patients were assigned to the cluster associated with arterial disease.

Atrial Cardiopathy and Likely Pathogenic Patent Foramen Ovale in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

BACKGROUND

 Atrial cardiopathy and likely pathogenic patent foramen ovale (PFO) are two potential embolic sources in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). The relationship between these two mechanisms among ESUS patients remains unclear.

METHODS

 Atrial cardiopathy was defined as increased left atrial diameter index (> 23 mm/m²) or left atrial volume index (> 34 mL/m²), or PR prolongation (≥ 200 ms), or presence of supraventricular extrasystoles in the electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the index stoke. The presence of PFO was assessed by transthoracic echocardiography with microbubble test or by transesophageal echocardiography. The presence of PFO was considered as likely pathogenic if the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score was 7 to 10.

RESULTS

 Among 367 ESUS patients with available information about the presence of PFO and the presence of atrial cardiopathy (median age: 61 years, 40.6% women), likely pathogenic PFO was diagnosed in 62 (16.9%) and atrial cardiopathy in 122 (33.2%). Only 4 patients (1.1%) had both likely pathogenic PFO and atrial cardiopathy. The prevalence of atrial cardiopathy was lower in patients with likely pathogenic PFO (6.5%) compared with patients with likely incidental PFO (31.2%) or without PFO (40.6%) (Pearson's chi-square test: 26.08, p < 0.001; adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.09-0.86). The prevalence of likely pathogenic PFO was lower in patients with atrial cardiopathy compared with patients without atrial cardiopathy (3.3% vs. 23.7%, respectively [Pearson's chi-square test: 24.13, p < 0.001; adjusted OR: 0.2, 95% CI: 0.02-0.6]).

CONCLUSION

 The presence of atrial cardiopathy is inversely related to the presence of likely pathogenic PFO in patients with ESUS.

Bleeding risk comparison between direct oral anticoagulants at doses approved for atrial fibrillation and aspirin: systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression

BACKGROUND

A considerable proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are still treated with aspirin despite current guidelines due to presumed favorable safety.

AIM

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of bleeding outcomes in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) at doses approved for AF vs. aspirin.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Scopus for phase-III RCTs of DOACs at AF-approved doses vs. aspirin. Outcomes assessed were major-, intracranial-, gastrointestinal-, clinically-relevant-non-major- and fatal bleeding. We performed two subgroup analyses: one per patient population i.e. those at high risk of arterial or venous thromboembolism, and one per DOAC. We also performed a meta-regression to assess the association with patient age.

RESULTS

In 4 eligible trials (20,440 patients) comparing DOACs vs. aspirin, the ORs were: 1.52 (95%CI: 0.91-2.53) for major bleeding in patients at high risk of arterial thromboembolism and 1.55 (95%CI:0.99-2.45, relative-risk-increase:55%, absolute-risk-increase:0.6%, number-needed-to-harm:170) in the overall analysis; 1.39 (95%CI:0.62-3.14) for intracranial bleeding in patients at high risk of arterial thromboembolism which was similar for the overall analysis; 1.27 (95%CI: 0.84-1.92) for gastrointestinal bleeding in patients at high risk of arterial thromboembolism and 1.26 (95%CI:0.86-1.85) in the overall analysis. Patient age was not a predictor of the magnitude of ORs for all bleeding outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The present meta-analysis does not support the use of aspirin over DOACs in AF. Accordingly, the level of evidence of the related recommendations should be upgraded, which in turn may reduce further the proportion of AF patients treated with antiplatelets.

Antithrombotic treatment in patients with stroke and supracardiac atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the efficacy and safety of oral anticoagulants vs antiplatelets in patients with stroke and atherosclerotic plaques in the aortic arch or cervical or intracranial arteries, collectively described as supracardiac atherosclerosis.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Scopus until August 28, 2019, for randomized trials comparing oral anticoagulants vs antiplatelets in patients with stroke and supracardiac atherosclerosis using the terms "anticoagulant or anticoagulation" and "antiplatelet or aspirin" and "randomized controlled trial or RCT" and "stroke or cerebral ischemia" and "aortic or carotid or vertebrobasilar or intracranial or atherosclerosis or stenosis or arterial." Four outcomes were assessed: recurrent ischemic stroke, major ischemic event or death, major bleeding, and intracranial bleeding. Treatment effects (relative risk [RR] and 95% confidence interval [CI]) were estimated by meta-analysis using random-effects models.

RESULTS

Among 1,117 articles identified in the literature search, results from 10 randomized controlled trials involving 6,068 patients with stroke/TIA with supracardiac atherosclerosis were included in the meta-analysis. Recurrent ischemic stroke rates were 2.94 per 100 patient-years in the anticoagulant-assigned patients vs 3.30 per 100 patient-years in the antiplatelet-assigned patients (RR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.70-1.18 for the SJ estimator, I² = 26%). Major ischemic event or death rates were 4.39 per 100 patient-years in anticoagulant-assigned patients vs 4.32 in antiplatelet-assigned patients (RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.79-1.35; I² = 54.5%). Major bleeding rates were 2.88 per 100 patient-years in anticoagulant-assigned patients vs 0.82 in antiplatelet-assigned patients (RR, 3.21; 95% CI, 1.96-5.24; I² = 46%).

CONCLUSION

This systematic review and meta-analysis showed that anticoagulant-assigned patients with stroke and supracardiac atherosclerosis were not at different risk of ischemic stroke recurrence and increased risk of major bleeding compared to antiplatelet-assigned patients.

Identification of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source and low risk of new incident atrial fibrillation: The AF-ESUS score

Background and aims

Only a minority of patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) receive prolonged cardiac monitoring despite current recommendations. The identification of ESUS patients who have low probability of new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) could potentially support a strategy of more individualized allocation of available resources and hence, increase their diagnostic yield. We aimed to develop a tool that can identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF.

Methods

We performed multivariate stepwise regression in a pooled dataset of consecutive ESUS patients from three prospective stroke registries to identify predictors of new incident AF. The coefficient of each independent covariate of the fitted multivariable model was used to generate an integer-based point scoring system.

Results

Among 839 patients (43.1% women, median age 67.0 years) followed-up for a median of 24.3 months (2999 patient-years), 125 (14.9%) had new incident AF. The proposed score assigns 3 points for age ≥ 60 years; 2 points for hypertension; −1 point for left ventricular hypertrophy reported at echocardiography; 2 points for left atrial diameter >40 mm; −3 points for left ventricular ejection fraction <35%; 1 point for the presence of any supraventricular extrasystole recorded during all available 12-lead standard electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the ESUS; −2 points for subcortical infarct; −3 points for the presence of non-stenotic carotid plaques. The rate of new incident AF during follow-up was 1.97% among the 42.3% of the cohort who had a score of ≤0, compared to 26.9% in patients with > 0 (relative risk: 13.7, 95%CI: 5.9--31.5). The area under the curve of the score was 84.8% (95%CI: 79.9--86.9%). The sensitivity and negative predictive value of a score of ≤0 for new incident AF during follow-up were 94.9% (95%CI: 89.3--98.1%) and 98.0% (95%CI: 95.8--99.3%), respectively.

Conclusions

The proposed AF-ESUS score has high sensitivity and high negative predictive value to identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. Patients with a score of 1 or more may be better candidates for prolonged automated cardiac monitoring.

Clinical trial registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov / Unique identifier: NCT02766205.

Left atrial diameter thresholds and new incident atrial fibrillation in embolic stroke of undetermined source

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We analyzed consecutive patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) from three prospective stroke registries to compare the prognostic performance of different LAD thresholds for the prediction of new incident AF.

METHODS

We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive prognostic value (PPV), negative prognostic value (NPV) and Youden's J-statistic of different LAD thresholds to predict new incident AF. We performed multivariate stepwise regression with forward selection of covariates to assess the association between the LAD threshold with the highest Youden's J-statistic and AF detection.

RESULTS

Among 675 patients followed for 2437 patient-years, the mean LAD was 38.5 ± 6.8 mm. New incident AF was diagnosed in 115 (17.0%) patients. The LAD threshold of 40mm yielded the highest Youden's J-statistic of 0.35 with sensitivity 0.69, specificity 0.66, PPV 0.27 and NPV 0.92. The likelihood of new incident AF was nearly twice in patients with LAD > 40 mm compared to LAD ≤ 40 mm (HR:1.92, 95%CI:1.24-2.97, p = 0.004). The 10-year cumulative probability of new incident AF was higher in patients with LAD>40 mm compared to LAD ≤ 40 mm (53.5% and 22.4% respectively, log-rank-test: 28.2, p < 0.001). The annualized rate of stroke recurrence of 4.0% in the overall population did not differ significantly in patient above vs. below this LAD threshold (HR:0.96, 95%CI:0.62-1.48, p = 0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

The LAD threshold of 40 mm has the best prognostic performance among other LAD values to predict new incident AF after ESUS. The diagnostic yield of prolonged cardiac rhythm monitoring in patients with LAD ≤ 40 mm seems low; therefore, such patients may have lower priority for prolonged cardiac monitoring.

External Performance of the HAVOC Score for the Prediction of New Incident Atrial Fibrillation

Background and Purpose—

The HAVOC score (hypertension, age, valvular heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease) was proposed for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) after cryptogenic stroke. It showed good model discrimination (area under the curve, 0.77). Only 2.5% of patients with a low-risk HAVOC score (ie, 0–4) were diagnosed with new incident AF. We aimed to assess its performance in an external cohort of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source.

Methods—

In the AF-embolic stroke of undetermined source dataset, we assessed the discriminatory power, calibration, specificity, negative predictive value, and accuracy of the HAVOC score to predict new incident AF. Patients with a HAVOC score of 0 to 4 were considered as low-risk, as proposed in its original publication.

Results—

In 658 embolic stroke of undetermined source patients (median age, 67 years; 44% women), the median HAVOC score was 2 (interquartile range, 3). There were 540 (82%) patients with a HAVOC score of 0 to 4 and 118 (18%) with a score of ≥5. New incident AF was diagnosed in 95 (14.4%) patients (28.8% among patients with HAVOC score ≥5 and 11.3% among patients with HAVOC score 0–4 [age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio, 2.29 (95% CI, 1.37–3.82)]). The specificity of low-risk HAVOC score to identify patients without new incident AF was 88.7%. The negative predictive value of low-risk HAVOC score was 85.1%. The accuracy was 78.0%, and the area under the curve was 68.7% (95% CI, 62.1%–73.3%).

Conclusions—

The previously reported low rate of AF among embolic stroke of undetermined source patients with low-risk HAVOC score was not confirmed in our cohort. Further assessment of the HAVOC score is warranted before it is routinely implemented in clinical practice.

A tool to identify patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source at high recurrence risk

OBJECTIVE

A tool to stratify the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) could be useful in research and clinical practice. We aimed to determine whether a score can be developed and externally validated for the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.

METHODS

We pooled the data of all consecutive patients with ESUS from 11 prospective stroke registries. We performed multivariable Cox regression analysis to identify predictors of stroke recurrence. Based on the coefficient of each covariate of the fitted multivariable model, we generated an integer-based point scoring system. We validated the score externally assessing its discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

In 3 registries (884 patients) that were used as the derivation cohort, age, leukoaraiosis, and multiterritorial infarct were identified as independent predictors of stroke recurrence and were included in the final score, which assigns 1 point per every decade after 35 years of age, 2 points for leukoaraiosis, and 3 points for multiterritorial infarcts (acute or old nonlacunar). The rate of stroke recurrence was 2.1 per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-3.06) in patients with a score of 0-4 (low risk), 3.74 (95% CI 2.77-5.04) in patients with a score of 5-6 (intermediate risk), and 8.23 (95% CI 5.99-11.3) in patients with a score of 7-12 (high risk). Compared to low-risk patients, the risk of stroke recurrence was significantly higher in intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.1-2.88) and high-risk patients (HR 4.67, 95% CI 2.83-7.7). The score was well-calibrated in both derivation and external validation cohorts (8 registries, 820 patients) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ²: 12.1 [p = 0.357] and χ²: 21.7 [p = 0.753], respectively). The area under the curve of the score was 0.63 (95% CI 0.58-0.68) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.54-0.66), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed score can assist in the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.

Antithrombotic Treatment in Cryptogenic Stroke Patients With Patent Foramen Ovale

Background and Purpose—

It is unclear whether treatment with anticoagulants or antiplatelets is the optimal strategy in patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack of undetermined cause and patent foramen ovale that is not percutaneously closed. We aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to compare anticoagulant or antiplatelet treatment in this population.

Methods—

We searched PubMed until July 16, 2019 for trials comparing anticoagulants and antiplatelet treatment in patients with stroke/transient ischemic attack and medically treated patent foramen ovale using the terms: “cryptogenic or embolic stroke of undetermined source” and “stroke or cerebrovascular accident or transient ischemic attack” and “patent foramen ovale or patent foramen ovale or paradoxical embolism” and “trial or study” and “antithrombotic or anticoagulant or antiplatelet.” The outcomes assessed were stroke recurrence, major bleeding, and the composite end point of stroke recurrence or major bleeding. We used 3 random-effects models: (1) a reference model based on the inverse variance method with the Sidik and Jonkman heterogeneity estimator; (2) a strict model, implementing the Hartung and Knapp method; and (3) a commonly used Bayesian model with a prior that assumes moderate to large between-study variance.

Results—

Among 112 articles identified in the literature search, 5 randomized controlled trials were included in the meta-analysis (1720 patients, mean follow-up 2.3±0.5 years). Stroke recurrence occurred at a rate of 1.73 per 100 patient-years in anticoagulant-assigned patients and 2.39 in antiplatelet-assigned patients (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.32–1.48 for the Sidik and Jonkman estimator). Major bleeding occurred at a rate of 1.16 per 100 patient-years in anticoagulant-assigned patients and 0.68 in antiplatelet-assigned patients (hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% CI, 0.72–3.59 for the Sidik and Jonkman estimator). The composite outcome occurred in 52 anticoagulant-assigned and 54 antiplatelet-assigned patients (odds ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.65–1.70 for the Sidik and Jonkman estimator).

Conclusions—

We cannot exclude a large reduction of stroke recurrence in anticoagulant-assigned patients compared with antiplatelet-assigned, without significant differences in major bleeding. An adequately powered randomized controlled trial of a non–vitamin K antagonist versus aspirin is warranted.

Renal Function and Risk Stratification of Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

Background and Purpose- We aimed to assess if renal function can aid in risk stratification for ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) recurrence and death in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Methods- We pooled 12 ESUS datasets from Europe and America. Renal function was evaluated using the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and analyzed in continuous, binary, and categorical way. Cox-regression analyses assessed if renal function was independently associated with the risk for ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence and death. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method estimated the cumulative probability of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence and death. Results- In 1530 patients with ESUS followed for 3260 patient-years, there were 237 recurrences (15.9%) and 201 deaths (13.4%), corresponding to 7.3 ischemic stroke/TIA recurrences and 5.6 deaths per 100 patient-years, respectively. Renal function was not associated with the risk for ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence when forced into the final multivariate model, regardless if it was analyzed as continuous (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.00 for every 1 mL/min), binary (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.87-1.73) or categorical covariate (likelihood-ratio test 2.59, P=0.63 for stroke recurrence). The probability of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence across stages of renal function was 11.9% for eGFR ≥90, 16.6% for eGFR 60-89, 21.7% for eGFR 45-59, 19.2% for eGFR 30-44, and 24.9% for eGFR <30 (likelihood-ratio test 2.59, P=0.63). The results were similar for the outcome of death. Conclusions- The present study is the largest pooled individual patient-level ESUS dataset, and does not provide evidence that renal function can be used to stratify the risk of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence or death in patients with ESUS.

Oral anticoagulation versus antiplatelet or placebo for stroke prevention in patients with heart failure and sinus rhythm: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background

Previous meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials of oral anticoagulation in patients with heart failure and sinus rhythm reported reduced stroke risk and increased bleeding risk compared to antiplatelets or placebo. However, the effect estimates may be subject to imprecision, as all included trials were prematurely terminated; stroke was not the primary outcome and overall results were primarily driven by a single trial. Recently, new trial data became available.

Aim

To provide more accurate estimates of the effect of oral anticoagulation on stroke risk in heart failure patients with sinus rhythm by systematic review and meta-analysis of available randomized controlled trials including recently published evidence.

Methods

We searched PubMed and Scopus for full-text articles of randomized controlled trials of oral anticoagulation versus antiplatelet or placebo in heart failure patients with sinus rhythm published between inception and 28 August 2018. The outcomes assessed were any stroke, major bleeding, and death.

Results

In five trials (9490 patients; 21,067 patient-years), oral anticoagulation-treated patients had lower stroke risk (odds ratio (OR) 0.60, 95%CI: 0.46–0.78, absolute-risk-reduction: 1.3%, number-needed-to-treat: 77), higher major bleeding risk (OR: 1.92, 95%CI: 1.51–2.45, absolute-risk-increase: 2.0%, number-needed-to-harm: 50), and no significant difference in death rates (OR: 0.90, 95%CI: 0.73–1.11) compared to antiplatelets or placebo.

Conclusions

In the largest meta-analysis to date, oral anticoagulation is associated with a considerable reduction of stroke risk, which is offset by a significant increase in major bleeding risk. For every 1000 patients treated with oral anticoagulation rather than antiplatelet or no antithrombotic treatment for 2.21 years, 13 strokes are prevented but 20 additional major hemorrhages occur, without significant difference in death rates.

Statin-based therapy for primary and secondary prevention of ischemic stroke: A meta-analysis and critical overview

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To reassess the effect of statin-based lipid-lowering therapy on ischemic stroke in primary and secondary prevention trials with regard to achieved levels of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol in view of the availability of novel potent hypolipidemic agents.

METHODS

English literature was searched (up to November 2018) for publications restricted to trials with a minimum enrolment of 1000 and 500 subjects for primary and secondary prevention, respectively, meeting the following criteria: adult population, randomized controlled design, and recorded outcome data on ischemic stroke events. Data were meta-analyzed and curve-estimation procedure was applied to estimate regression statistics and produce related plots.

RESULTS

Four primary prevention trials and four secondary prevention trials fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Lipid-lowering therapy was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke in primary (risk ratio, RR 0.70, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.60-0.82; p < 0.001) and in the secondary prevention setting (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.70-0.90; p < 0.001). Curve-estimation procedure revealed a linear relationship between the absolute risk reduction of ischemic stroke and active treatment-achieved low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels in secondary prevention (adjusted R-square 0.90) in support of "the lower the better" hypothesis for stroke survivors. On the other hand, the cubic model followed the observed data well in primary prevention (adjusted R-square 0.98), indicating greater absolute risk reduction in high-risk cardiovascular disease-free individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Statin-based lipid-lowering is effective both for primary and secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. Most benefit derives from targeting disease-free individuals at high cardiovascular risk, and by achieving low treatment targets for low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol in stroke survivors.

Efficacy and Safety of Rivaroxaban Versus Aspirin in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source and Carotid Atherosclerosis

Background and Purpose—

The sources of emboli in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) are multiple and may not respond uniformly to anticoagulation. In this exploratory subgroup analysis of patients with carotid atherosclerosis in the NAVIGATE (New Approach Rivaroxaban Inhibition of Factor Xa in a Global Trial Versus ASA to Prevent Embolism)-ESUS trial, we assessed whether the treatment effect in this subgroup is consistent with the overall trial population and investigated the association of carotid atherosclerosis with recurrent ischemic stroke.

Methods—

Carotid atherosclerosis was analyzed either as the presence of mild (ie, 20%–49%) atherosclerotic stenosis or, separately, as the presence of carotid plaque. Primary efficacy outcome was ischemic stroke recurrence. Safety outcomes were major bleeding and symptomatic intracerebral bleeding.

Results—

Carotid plaque was present in 40% of participants and mild carotid stenosis in 11%. There was no significant difference in ischemic stroke recurrence between rivaroxaban- and aspirin-treated patients among 490 patients with carotid stenosis (5.0 versus 5.9/100 patient-years, respectively, hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.39–1.87; P for interaction of treatment effect with patients without carotid stenosis 0.78) and among 2905 patients with carotid plaques (5.9 versus 4.9/100 patient-years, respectively, HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.86–1.68; P for interaction of treatment effect with patients without carotid stenosis 0.2). Among patients with carotid plaque, major bleeding was more frequent in rivaroxaban-treated patients compared with aspirin-treated (2.0 versus 0.5/100 patient-years, HR, 3.75; 95% CI, 1.63–8.65). Patients with carotid stenosis had similar rate of ischemic stroke recurrence compared with those without (5.4 versus 4.9/100 patient-years, respectively, HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.73–1.69), but there was a strong trend of higher rate of ischemic stroke recurrence in patients with carotid plaque compared with those without (5.4 versus 4.3/100 patient-years, respectively, HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.99–1.54).

Conclusions—

In ESUS patients with carotid atherosclerosis, we found no difference in efficacy between rivaroxaban and aspirin for prevention of recurrent stroke, but aspirin was safer, consistent with the overall trial results. Carotid plaque was much more often present ipsilateral to the qualifying ischemic stroke than contralateral, supporting an important etiological role of nonstenotic carotid disease in ESUS.

Clinical Trial Registration—

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT02313909.

Prevalence and Overlap of Potential Embolic Sources in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

Background

We aimed to assess the prevalence and degree of overlap of potential embolic sources (PES) in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS).

Methods and Results

In a pooled data set derived from 3 prospective stroke registries, patients were categorized in ≥1 groups according to the PES that was/were identified. We categorized PES as follows: atrial cardiopathy, atrial fibrillation diagnosed during follow‐up, arterial disease, left ventricular disease, cardiac valvular disease, patent foramen ovale, and cancer. In 800 patients with ESUS (43.1% women; median age, 67.0 years), 3 most prevalent PES were left ventricular disease, arterial disease, and atrial cardiopathy, which were present in 54.4%, 48.5%, and 45.0% of patients, respectively. Most patients (65.5%) had >1 PES, whereas only 29.7% and 4.8% of patients had a single or no PES, respectively. In 31.1% of patients, there were ≥3 PES present. On average, each patient had 2 PES (median, 2). During a median follow‐up of 3.7 years, stroke recurrence occurred in 101 (12.6%) of patients (23.3 recurrences per 100 patient‐years). In multivariate analysis, the risk of stroke recurrence was higher in the atrial fibrillation group compared with other PES, but not statistically different between patients with 0 to 1, 2, or ≥3 PES.

Conclusions

There is major overlap of PES in patients with ESUS. This may possibly explain the negative results of the recent large randomized controlled trials of secondary prevention in patients with ESUS and offer a rationale for a randomized controlled trial of combination of anticoagulation and aspirin for the prevention of stroke recurrence in patients with ESUS.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02766205.

External Validation of the PREMISE Score in the Athens Stroke Registry

BACKGROUND

A simple score was proposed recently for Predicting Early Mortality from Ischemic Stroke (PREMISE) derived from the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry. This score could be useful in clinical practice and research. However, its generalizability is uncertain, as it was validated internally only.

AIMS

We aimed to validate the PREMISE score externally.

METHODS

The analysis was performed in the Athens Stroke Registry. The PREMISE score was calculated as described in the original publication. The outcome was death within 7 days after stroke. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the relative death risk in different strata of the PREMISE score using the lowest values of the score (ie, 0-4) as the reference category. We assessed the score's calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and its discriminatory power by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC).

RESULTS

In 2608 consecutive patients (median age 71 years, 38.8% women) with acute ischemic stroke treated in the stroke unit, mortality increased with increasing PREMISE score from .1% (95% confidence intervals [95% CI]: 0%-.2%) in patients with a score of 0-4 to 28.2% (95% CI: 14.1%-42.3%) in patients with a score of ≥10. The risk for death was more than 6 times higher in patients with a PREMISE score of ≥10 compared to patients with 0-4 points (odds ratio [OR]:6.21, 95% CI:4.13-8.29). Τhe PREMISE score showed excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ²: .01, P= .99) and good discriminatory power (AUC .873, 95% CI: .844-.901).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study confirms the prognostic accuracy of the PREMISE score in an independent cohort of patients with acute ischemic stroke treated in the stroke unit.

Carotid plaques and detection of atrial fibrillation in embolic stroke of undetermined source

Objective

To investigate the association between the presence of ipsilateral nonstenotic carotid plaques and the rate of detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) during follow-up in patients with embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS).

Methods

We pooled data of all consecutive ESUS patients from 3 prospective stroke registries. Multivariate stepwise regression assessed the association between the presence of nonstenotic carotid plaques and AF detection. The 10-year cumulative probabilities of AF detection were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method.

Results

Among 777 patients followed for 2,642 patient-years, 341 (38.6%) patients had an ipsilateral nonstenotic carotid plaque. AF was detected in 112 (14.4%) patients in the overall population during follow-up. The overall rate of AF detection was 8.5% in patients with nonstenotic carotid plaques (2.9% per 100 patient-years) and 19.0% in patients without (5.0% per 100 patient-years) (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37–0.84). The presence of ipsilateral nonstenotic carotid plaques was associated with lower probability for AF detection (adjusted HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.34–0.96, p = 0.03). The 10-year cumulative probability of AF detection was lower in patients with ipsilateral nonstenotic carotid plaques compared to those without (34.5%, 95% CI 21.8–47.2 vs 49.0%, 95% CI 40.4–57.6 respectively, log-rank-test: 11.8, p = 0.001).

Conclusions

AF is less frequently detected in ESUS patients with nonstenotic carotid plaques compared to those without.

Clinicaltrials.gov identifier

NCT02766205.

Noncardioembolic Stroke in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) could be a coincidental finding in certain patients with ischemic stroke and increased burden of underlying cardiovascular disease. Concomitant large-vessel atheromatosis and cerebral small vessel disease may be the actual cause of stroke, and distinguishing between different pathophysiologic mechanisms could impose substantial diagnostic difficulties. Despite routine use of oral anticoagulants (OACs) in patients with AF based on their risk for embolism (ie, CHA2DS2-Vasc score), antithrombotic agents may exert differential effects depending on stroke etiology and stroke subtyping should be evaluated as an additional component of risk stratification that could facilitate optimal management. In the present study, we summarize the evidence on noncardioembolic (non-CE) stroke and treatment approaches based on different stroke subtypes in patients with AF. In particular, approximately one-third of patients with AF seem to suffer a non-CE stroke. Within this category, 11% to 24% of patients present high-grade carotid stenosis and 9% to 16% of ischemic strokes are classified as lacunar. In terms of secondary prevention, the effectiveness of OACs in preventing non-CE stroke has been disputed. Additional large-scale prospective studies are warranted to assess the pathophysiologic stroke mechanisms in patients with AF and compare the differential efficacy of antithrombotic treatment strategies in non-CE ischemic syndromes.

In-hospital dynamics of glucose, blood pressure and temperature predict outcome in patients with acute ischaemic stroke

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to assess alterations in glucose, blood pressure and temperature in acute ischaemic stroke and investigate their association with early all-cause mortality and functional outcome.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We studied all consecutive acute ischaemic stroke patients admitted in 2001-2010 to the Acute Stroke Unit, at Alexandra University Hospital, in Athens. Serial measurements were performed in the first seven days post-stroke and different parameters have been estimated: mean daily values, variability, subject-specific baseline levels and rate of change in serial measurements. Cox-proportional-hazards-model analysis and logistic-regression analysis were applied to investigate the association between these parameters and all-cause mortality and functional outcome after adjustment for known confounders of stroke outcome.

RESULTS

In 1271 patients (mean age 72.3 ± 11.2 years), after adjusting for confounders, baseline glucose levels (HR: 1.005, 95%CI: 1.001-1.01; p = 0.017), variability of systolic BP (SBP) as estimated by standard deviation (HR: 1.028, 95%CI: 1.01-1.048; p = 0.005), the baseline temperature (HR: 2.758, 95%CI: 2.067-3.68; p < 0.001) and the rate of temperature change (HR: 1.841, 95%CI: 1.616-2.908; p < 0.001) were independently associated with all-cause mortality within three months. Poor functional outcome was associated with subject-specific baseline values of temperature (OR: 1.743; 95%CI: 1.076-2.825; p = 0.024), the rate of SBP (OR: 1.159; 95% CI: 1.047-1.280; p = 0.004) and temperature change (OR: 1.402; 95% CI: 1.061-1.853; p = 0.018).

DISCUSSION

The main strength of our study is that we analysed simultaneously three parameters and we used four different variables for each parameter of interest.

CONCLUSION

Baseline glucose levels, variability of SBP and baseline temperature and its rate of change are independent predictors of all-cause mortality. Baseline values of temperature and the rate of changes in SBP and temperature are independent predictors of poor functional outcome.

Factors contributing to sex differences in functional outcomes and participation after stroke

Objective

To examine factors contributing to the sex differences in functional outcomes and participation restriction after stroke.

Methods

Individual participant data on long-term functional outcome or participation restriction (i.e., handicap) were obtained from 11 stroke incidence studies (1993–2014). Multivariable log-binomial regression was used to estimate the female:male relative risk (RR) of poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score >2 or Barthel Index score <20) at 1 year (10 studies, n = 4,852) and 5 years (7 studies, n = 2,226). Multivariable linear regression was used to compare the mean difference (MD) in participation restriction by use of the London Handicap Scale (range 0–100 with lower scores indicating poorer outcome) for women compared to men at 5 years (2 studies, n = 617). For each outcome, study-specific estimates adjusted for confounding factors (e.g., sociodemographics, stroke-related factors) were combined with the use of random-effects meta-analysis.

Results

In unadjusted analyses, women experienced worse functional outcomes after stroke than men (1 year: pooled RRunadjusted 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.48; 5 years: RRunadjusted 1.31, 95% CI 1.16–1.47). However, this difference was greatly attenuated after adjustment for age, prestroke dependency, and stroke severity (1 year: RRadjusted 1.08, 95% CI 0.97–1.20; 5 years: RRadjusted 1.05, 95% CI 0.94–1.18). Women also had greater participation restriction than men (pooled MDunadjusted −5.55, 95% CI −8.47 to −2.63), but this difference was again attenuated after adjustment for the aforementioned factors (MDadjusted −2.48, 95% CI −4.99 to 0.03).

Conclusions

Worse outcomes after stroke among women were explained mostly by age, stroke severity, and prestroke dependency, suggesting these potential targets to improve the outcomes after stroke in women.

20-year trends of characteristics and outcomes of stroke patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

The accurate knowledge of secular trends in prevalence, characteristics and outcomes of patients with ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation allows better projections into the future.

Aim

We aimed to report the overall, age- and sex-specific secular trends of characteristics and outcomes of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and atrial fibrillation between 1993 and 2012 in the Athens Stroke Registry.

Methods

We used Joinpoint regression analysis to calculate the average annual percent changes and 95% confidence intervals.

Results

Among 3314 stroke patients, 1044 (31.5%) had atrial fibrillation. Between 1993 and 2012, there was an average annual reduction of 0.8% (95% CI: −1.5%; 0.0%) in the proportion of atrial fibrillation patients among all AIS patients, whereas the proportion of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation patients among all atrial fibrillation patients increased annually by an average of 7.1% (95% CI: 5.4%;8.9%). Among all atrial fibrillation patients, there was an average annual reduction of 2.9% (95% CI: −2.7; −3.2%) in the proportion of previously known atrial fibrillation patients, followed by an annual average reduction of 2.4% (95% CI: −1.2; −3.6%) in the proportion of previously known atrial fibrillation patients not receiving any antithrombotic treatment at admission. During that period, there was an increase in the average annual proportion of previously known atrial fibrillation patients treated with anticoagulants (6.4%, 95% CI: 1.2;11.9%) and aspirin (2.3%, 95% CI: −0.4;5.0%) at admission; an average annual increase in the proportion of atrial fibrillation patients who were prescribed anticoagulant was apparent both for patients with mRS<4 (3.5%) and mRS: 4–5 (7.2%), while the proportion of atrial fibrillation patients who were prescribed aspirin or no antithrombotic at discharge was annually reduced (5.8% for mRS<4; 1.6% for mRS: 4–5 and 7.1% for mRS<4;5.3% for mRS: 4–5 respectively). Stroke recurrences were annually reduced by an average of 5.8% (95% CI: −8.6; −3.0%), along with cardiovascular events (6.5%, 95% CI: −8.3; −4.7%) and deaths (7.9%, 95% CI: −9.2; −6.5%).

Conclusions

Between 1993 and 2012, the proportion of atrial fibrillation patients on proper antithrombotic treatment and the rate of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation increased significantly. Rates of stroke recurrence, cardiovascular events, and mortality reduced significantly.

Closure of Patent Foramen Ovale Versus Medical Therapy in Patients With Cryptogenic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack

Background and Purpose—

Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses compared the efficacy and safety of patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure versus medical treatment in patients with cryptogenic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Recently, new evidence from randomized trials became available.

Methods—

We searched PubMed until September 24, 2017, for trials comparing PFO closure with medical treatment in patients with cryptogenic stroke/TIA using the items: stroke or cerebrovascular accident or TIA and patent foramen ovale or paradoxical embolism and trial or study.

Results—

Among 851 identified articles, 5 were eligible. In 3627 patients with 3.7-year mean follow-up, there was significant difference in ischemic stroke recurrence (0.53 versus 1.1 per 100 patient-years, respectively; odds ratio [OR], 0.43; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.21–0.90; relative risk reduction, 50.5%; absolute risk reduction, 2.11%; and number needed to treat to prevent 1 event, 46.5 for 3.7 years). There was no significant difference in TIAs (0.78 versus 0.98 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.53–1.19) and all-cause mortality (0.18 versus 0.23 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.34–1.56). New-onset atrial fibrillation occurred more frequently in the PFO closure arm (1.3 versus 0.25 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 5.15; 95% CI, 2.18–12.15) and resolved in 72% of cases within 45 days, whereas rates of myocardial infarction (0.12 versus 0.09 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.25–5.91) and any serious adverse events (7.3 versus 7.3 per 100 patient-years, respectively; OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.92–1.25) were similar.

Conclusions—

In patients with cryptogenic stroke/TIA and PFO who have their PFO closed, ischemic stroke recurrence is less frequent compared with patients receiving medical treatment. Atrial fibrillation is more frequent but mostly transient. There is no difference in TIA, all-cause mortality, or myocardial infarction.

Recommendations for Mechanical Thrombectomy in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke : A Clinical Guide by the Hellenic Stroke Organization

This document presents the consensus recommendations of the Hellenic Stroke Organization which can be of assistance to the treating stroke physicians.

Aspirin Versus Clopidogrel for Type 2 Diabetic Patients with First-Ever Noncardioembolic Acute Ischemic Stroke: Ten-Year Survival Data from the Athens Stroke Outcome Project

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk of stroke and poor outcome following a stroke event. We assessed the impact of discharge treatment with aspirin versus clopidogrel on the 10-year survival of patients with type 2 diabetes after a first-ever noncardioembolic acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

METHODS

This was a post hoc analysis of the Athens Stroke Outcome Project. Study outcomes included death, stroke recurrence, and a composite cardiovascular disease (CVD) end point (recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, coronary revascularization, aortic aneurysm rupture, or sudden death). Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Cox regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 304 (93 women) diabetic patients receiving either aspirin (n = 197) or clopidogrel (n = 107) were studied. The 10-year survival was better in clopidogrel-treated patients than in aspirin-treated patients (19 deaths [17.7%] for clopidogrel versus 55 deaths [27.9%] for aspirin; log-rank test: 4.91, P = .027). Similarly, clopidogrel was associated with a favorable impact on recurrent stroke (12 events [11.2%] for clopidogrel versus 39 events [19.7%] for aspirin; log-rank test: 4.46, P = .035) and on the composite CVD end point (21 events [19.6%] for clopidogrel versus 54 events [27.4%] for aspirin; log-rank test: 4.17, P = .041). In the multivariable analysis, the beneficial effect of clopidogrel over aspirin on both primary and secondary end points was independent of age, gender, the presence of CVD or CVD risk factors, and stroke severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate a favorable effect of clopidogrel at discharge compared with aspirin in preventing death, recurrent stroke, and CVD events in diabetic patients with a first-ever noncardioembolic AIS.

Age- and sex-specific analysis of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the correlation of age and sex with the risk of recurrence and death seen in patients with previous ischemic stroke is also evident in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS).

METHODS

We pooled datasets of 11 stroke registries from Europe and America. ESUS was defined according to the Cryptogenic Stroke/ESUS International Working Group. We performed Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier product limit analyses to investigate whether age (<60, 60-80, >80 years) and sex were independently associated with the risk for ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence or death.

RESULTS

Ischemic stroke/TIA recurrences and deaths per 100 patient-years were 2.46 and 1.01 in patients <60 years old, 5.76 and 5.23 in patients 60 to 80 years old, 7.88 and 11.58 in those >80 years old, 3.53 and 3.48 in women, and 4.49 and 3.98 in men, respectively. Female sex was not associated with increased risk for recurrent ischemic stroke/TIA (hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-1.58) or death (HR 1.35, 95% CI 0.97-1.86). Compared with the group <60 years old, the 60- to 80- and >80-year groups had higher 10-year cumulative probability of recurrent ischemic stroke/TIA (14.0%, 47.9%, and 37.0%, respectively, p < 0.001) and death (6.4%, 40.6%, and 100%, respectively, p < 0.001) and higher risk for recurrent ischemic stroke/TIA (HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.21-2.98 and HR 2.71, 95% CI 1.57-4.70, respectively) and death (HR 4.43, 95% CI 2.32-8.44 and HR 8.01, 95% CI 3.98-16.10, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Age, but not sex, is a strong predictor of stroke recurrence and death in ESUS. The risk is ≈3- and 8-fold higher in patients >80 years compared with those <60 years of age, respectively. The age distribution in the ongoing ESUS trials may potentially influence their power to detect a significant treatment association.

Risk Stratification for Recurrence and Mortality in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

Background and Purpose—

The risk of stroke recurrence in patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) is high, and the optimal antithrombotic strategy for secondary prevention is unclear. We investigated whether congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, and stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA; CHADS 2 ) and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores can stratify the long-term risk of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence and death in ESUS.

Methods—

We pooled data sets of 11 stroke registries from Europe and America. ESUS was defined according to the Cryptogenic Stroke/ESUS International Working Group. Cox regression analyses were performed to investigate if prestroke CHADS 2 and congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke or TIA, vascular disease, age 65–74 years, sex category (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) scores were independently associated with the risk of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence or death. The Kaplan–Meier product limit method was used to estimate the cumulative probability of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence and death in different strata of the CHADS 2 and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores.

Results—

One hundred fifty-nine (5.6% per year) ischemic stroke/TIA recurrences and 148 (5.2% per year) deaths occurred in 1095 patients (median age, 68 years) followed-up for a median of 31 months. Compared with CHADS 2 score 0, patients with CHADS 2 score 1 and CHADS 2 score >1 had higher risk of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 2.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41–4.00 and HR, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.68–4.40, respectively) and death (HR, 3.58; 95% CI, 1.80–7.12, and HR, 5.45; 95% CI, 2.86–10.40, respectively). Compared with low-risk CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score, patients with high-risk CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score had higher risk of ischemic stroke/TIA recurrence (HR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.94–5.80) and death (HR, 13.0; 95% CI, 4.7–35.4).

Conclusions—

The risk of recurrent ischemic stroke/TIA and death in ESUS is reliably stratified by CHADS 2 and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores. Compared with the low-risk group, patients in the high-risk CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc group have much higher risk of ischemic stroke recurrence/TIA and death, approximately 3-fold and 13-fold, respectively.

White-Coat Isolated Systolic Hypertension Is a Risk Factor for Carotid Atherosclerosis

The clinical importance of white-coat hypertension (WCH) remains a controversial issue. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of isolated systolic, isolated diastolic, and systolic/diastolic WCH with common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) and to compare each subgroup of WCH against other blood pressure (BP) phenotypes in terms of CCA-IMT values. A total of 1382 consecutive patients underwent 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring and carotid artery ultrasonographic measurements. According to the type of elevated office BP, WCH was divided into three groups: isolated systolic, isolated diastolic, and systolic/diastolic WCH. Patients with isolated systolic WCH (n=112) had significantly higher CCA-IMT values (0.737 mm) than those with isolated diastolic WCH (n=66) (0.685 mm) and nonsignificantly greater compared with those with systolic/diastolic WCH (n=228) (0.708 mm). Patients with isolated systolic WCH had CCA-IMT values similar to those with hypertension, patients with isolated diastolic WCH had similar values to those with normotension, and patients with systolic/diastolic WCH had an intermediate risk between normotension and hypertension.

Small-vessel occlusion versus large-artery atherosclerotic strokes in diabetics: Patient characteristics, outcomes, and predictors of stroke mechanism

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus exerts a detrimental effect on cerebral vasculature affecting both macrovasculature and microvasculature. However, although ischaemic stroke is typically included among macrovascular diabetic complications, it is frequently omitted from microvascular diabetic complications. We aimed to compare the proportion of large-artery atherosclerotic and small-vessel occlusion strokes among diabetic stroke patients, explore their differences and outcomes, and assess potential mechanisms which may determine why some diabetic patients suffer large-artery atherosclerotic stroke whereas others suffer small-vessel occlusion stroke.

METHODS

We pooled data of diabetic patients from four prospective ischaemic stroke registries (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), Athens, Austrian, and Helsinki Stroke Thrombolysis Registries). Stroke severity and prognosis were assessed with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and ASTRAL scores, respectively; functional outcome with three-month modified Rankin score (0-2 considered as favourable outcome). Logistic-regression analysis identified independent predictors of large-artery atherosclerotic stroke.

RESULTS

Among 5412 patients, 1069 (19.8%) were diabetics; of them, 232 (21.7%) had large-artery atherosclerotic and 205 (19.2%) small-vessel occlusion strokes. Large-artery atherosclerotic stroke had higher severity than small-vessel occlusion stroke (median NIHSS: 6 vs. 3, p < 0.001), worse prognosis (median ASTRAL score: 23 vs. 19, p < 0.001), and worse three-month outcome (60.3% vs. 83.4% with favourable outcome, p < 0.001). In logistic-regression analysis, peripheral artery disease (odds ratio: 4.013, 95% confidence interval: 1.667-9.665, p < 0.01) and smoking (odds ratio: 1.706, 95% confidence interval: 1.087-2.675, p < 0.05) were independently associated with large-artery atherosclerotic strokes.

CONCLUSION

In the diabetic stroke population, small-vessel occlusion and large-artery atherosclerotic strokes occur with similar frequency. Large-artery atherosclerotic strokes are more severe and have worse outcome than small-vessel occlusion strokes. The presence of peripheral artery disease and smoking independently predicted large-artery atherosclerotic stroke.

The APOE E4 Allele Confers Increased Risk of Ischemic Stroke Among Greek Carriers

BACKGROUND

Although several studies in various countries have indicated that the presence of the E4 allele of the apolipoprotein-E (APOE) gene is a risk factor for ischemic cerebrovascular disease, the strength of this association still remains a matter of debate.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to determine the frequency of the APOE E4 allele and various other gene polymorphisms in in a well-characterized sample of Greek patients and to evaluate the potential associations with the risk of ischemic stroke (IS) and coronary heart disease (CHD).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A total of nine gene variants/polymorphisms - F5 (Leiden - R5 06Q, rs6025), F2 (20210G > A, rs1799963), F13A1 (V34L, rs5985), MTHFR (677C > T - A222V, rs1801133), MTHFR (1298A > C - E429A, rs1801131), FGB (-455G > A -c.-463G > A; rs1800790), SERPINE1 (PAI14G/5G - rs1799889), ACE (ACE I/D, rs1799752), ITGB3 (GPIIIa L33P, rs5918) and the APOE E2/E3/E4 alleles (rs7412, rs429358) - were genotyped in 200 newly diagnosed ischemic stroke (IS) patients, 165 patients with ischemic coronary heart disease (CHD) and 159 controls with no cerebroor cardiovascular disease (non-CVD). A statistical analysis was performed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models.

RESULTS

No significant association was found regarding most gene polymorphisms and the presence of IS or CHD in the patient cohort. However, the APOE E4 allele frequency was significantly higher (p = 0.02) among patients with ischemic stroke (IS) or IS + CHD (12.7%) when compared to the controls (5.1%). More accurately, E4 carriers had 2.66 and 2.71 times greater likelihood of IS or IS + CHD than non-carriers, respectively (OR = 2.66, 95% CI 1.39-5.07, OR = 2.71, 95% CI 0.98-7.48).

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to some previous studies, these results support the role of the APOE E4 allele as an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke and ischemic coronary heart disease among Greek patients.

Salts of Clopidogrel: Investigation to Ensure Clinical Equivalence: A 12-Month Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

In the present clinical trial, we compared the efficacy and safety of the generic clopidogrel besylate (CB) with the innovator clopidogrel hydrogen sulfate (CHS) salt in patients eligible to receive clopidogrel.

METHODS

A prospective 2-arm, multicenter, open-label, phase 4 clinical trial. Consecutive patients (n = 1864) were screened and 1800 were enrolled in the trial and randomized to CHS or CB. Primary efficacy end point was the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from vascular causes, and primary safety end point was rate of bleeding events as defined by Bleeding Academic Research Consortium criteria.

RESULTS

At 12-month follow-up, no differences were observed between CB (n = 759) and CHS (n = 798) in primary efficacy and safety end points (age, sex, history of percutaneous coronary intervention adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41-1.21 and OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.51-1.29, respectively) between CHS and CB. Analyses of efficacy and safety in subgroups that were defined according to the qualifying diagnosis revealed that there was no difference between CHS and CB.

CONCLUSION

The efficacy and safety of CB administered for 12 months for the secondary prevention of atherothrombotic events are similar to that of CHS. (Salts of Clopidogrel: Investigation to ENsure Clinical Equivalence, SCIENCE trial; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:NCT02126982).