An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study

BACKGROUND AIMS

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

MELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis

Background & Aims

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis.

Results

A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883).

Conclusions

MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH.

Impact and implications

Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor does not improve mortality in severe alcoholic hepatitis: a single-center experience from the United States

Aim

To assess the role of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (GCSF) in the patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (SAH) using real world experience in the United States.

Background

There are few effective treatments for severe alcoholic hepatitis, which has a significant fatality rate. GCSF has been associated with improved survival in a small number of Indian studies, while there is a dearth of information from other parts of the globe.

Methods

We performed a single-center retrospective study of consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary care, liver transplant center with severe alcoholic hepatitis from May 2015 to February 2019. The patients receiving GCSF (5μg/kg subcutaneously every 12 hours for 5 consecutive days) (n=12) were compared to the patients receiving standard of care (n=42).

Results

Thirty-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality rates was similar among groups (25% vs. 17%, P=0.58; 41% vs 29%, P=0.30; 41% vs 47%, P=0.44, respectively). There was no difference in liver transplant listing and orthotopic transplantation among groups.

Conclusion

In this real-world, United States-based study, GCSF does not improved survival in the patient with several alcoholic hepatitis compared to standard of care.

Identification of optimal therapeutic window for steroid use in severe alcohol-associated hepatitis: A worldwide study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Corticosteroids are the only effective therapy for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), defined by a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score >20. However, there are patients who may be too sick to benefit from therapy. Herein, we aimed to identify the range of MELD scores within which steroids are effective for AH.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, international multicenter cohort study across 4 continents, including 3,380 adults with a clinical and/or histological diagnosis of AH. The main outcome was mortality at 30 days. We used a discrete-time survival analysis model, and MELD cut-offs were established using the transform-the-endpoints method.

RESULTS

In our cohort, median age was 49 (40-56) years, 76.5% were male, and 79% had underlying cirrhosis. Median MELD at admission was 24 (19-29). Survival was 88% (87-89) at 30 days, 77% (76-78) at 90 days, and 72% (72-74) at 180 days. A total of 1,225 patients received corticosteroids. In an adjusted-survival-model, corticosteroid use decreased 30-day mortality by 41% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59; 0.47-0.74; p <0.001). Steroids only improved survival in patients with MELD scores between 21 (HR 0.61; 0.39-0.95; p = 0.027) and 51 (HR 0.72; 0.52-0.99; p = 0.041). The maximum effect of corticosteroid treatment (21-30% survival benefit) was observed with MELD scores between 25 (HR 0.58; 0.42-0.77; p <0.001) and 39 (HR 0.57; 0.41-0.79; p <0.001). No corticosteroid benefit was seen in patients with MELD >51. The type of corticosteroids used (prednisone, prednisolone, or methylprednisolone) was not associated with survival benefit (p = 0.247).

CONCLUSION

Corticosteroids improve 30-day survival only among patients with severe AH, especially with MELD scores between 25 and 39.

LAY SUMMARY

Alcohol-associated hepatitis is a condition where the liver is severely inflamed as a result of excess alcohol use. It is associated with high mortality and it is not clear whether the most commonly used treatments (corticosteroids) are effective, particularly in patients with very severe liver disease. In this worldwide study, the use of corticosteroids was associated with increased 30-day, but not 90- or 180-day, survival. The maximal benefit was observed in patients with an MELD score (a marker of severity of liver disease; higher scores signify worse disease) between 25-39. However, this benefit was lost in patients with the most severe liver disease (MELD score higher than 51).

Comparison of 1-Year Morbidity Following Liver Transplant for Acute Alcoholic Hepatitis Versus Alcoholic Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

With limited data on the morbidity profile of liver transplant as therapy for alcoholic hepatitis, we compared 30-day and 1-year morbidity in liver transplant recipients with alcoholic hepatitis versus alcoholic cirrhosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 38 perioperative variables in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (n = 15) and with alcoholic cirrhosis (n = 46). Multivariable analysis was performed to identify factors independently associated with outcomes.

RESULTS

Patients with alcoholic hepatitis were younger (43 vs 58 years; P = .001), with higher pretransplant Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores (36 vs 29; P = .009) and worse Karnofsky scores (20 vs 50; P < .001). All patients with alcoholic hepatitis received standard criteria deceased donor grafts; however, in the alcoholic cirrhosis group, 64% received standard criteria deceased, 11% living, 11% after cardiac death, 9% extended criteria, and 2% split graft donor organ donations (P > .05). The alcoholic hepatitis group had higher degree of steatosis on explant (P < .005), and the alcoholic cirrhosis group had higher 30-day reoperation rate (P = .001); however, 1-year interventions, vascular and biliary complications, graft and patient survival, and all other variables were similar (P > .05). Rates of alcohol relapse, 1-year infection, and 1-year rejection were higher but not significant (P > .05) in the alcoholic hepatitis group. Thirty-day reoperation (odds ratio of 82.63; 95% CI, 8.02-3338.96; P = .002) and Karnofsky scores (odds ratio of 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08-1.36; P = .006) remained significant on multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed significant differences between our patient groups, including worse functional status in the alcoholic hepatitis group but significantly higher 30-day reoperation rates and more variable grafts in the alcoholic cirrhosis group, although both groups had similar overall 1-year complication and survival rates. Although not significant, patients with alcoholic hepatitis had higher alcohol relapse and 1-year infection and rejection rates. A larger cohort is necessary to confirm the strength of these findings.

Extrahepatic Complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an important cause of liver disease that is often associated with the metabolic syndrome. There is a growing awareness that extrahepatic complications occur in individuals with NAFLD, especially an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Development of diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, colorectal cancer, and endocrinopathies has been linked to NAFLD. This article reviews the extrahepatic complications affecting individuals with NAFLD and the pathogenesis underlying their development.

Daclatasvir combined with sofosbuvir or simeprevir in liver transplant recipients with severe recurrent hepatitis C infection

Daclatasvir (DCV) is a potent, pangenotypic nonstructural protein 5A inhibitor with demonstrated antiviral efficacy when combined with sofosbuvir (SOF) or simeprevir (SMV) with or without ribavirin (RBV) in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Herein, we report efficacy and safety data for DCV-based all-oral antiviral therapy in liver transplantation (LT) recipients with severe recurrent HCV. DCV at 60 mg/day was administered for up to 24 weeks as part of a compassionate use protocol. The study included 97 LT recipients with a mean age of 59.3 ± 8.2 years; 93% had genotype 1 HCV and 31% had biopsy-proven cirrhosis between the time of LT and the initiation of DCV. The mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 13.0 ± 6.0, and the proportion with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) A/B/C was 51%/31%/12%, respectively. Mean HCV RNA at DCV initiation was 14.3 × 6 log10 IU/mL, and 37% had severe cholestatic HCV infection. Antiviral regimens were selected by the local investigator and included DCV+SOF (n = 77), DCV+SMV (n = 18), and DCV+SMV+SOF (n = 2); 35% overall received RBV. At the end of treatment (EOT) and 12 weeks after EOT, 88 (91%) and 84 (87%) patients, respectively, were HCV RNA negative or had levels <43 IU/mL. CTP and MELD scores significantly improved between DCV-based treatment initiation and last contact. Three virological breakthroughs and 2 relapses occurred in patients treated with DCV+SMV with or without RBV. None of the 8 patient deaths (6 during and 2 after therapy) were attributed to therapy. In conclusion, DCV-based all-oral antiviral therapy was well tolerated and resulted in a high sustained virological response in LT recipients with severe recurrent HCV infection. Most treated patients experienced stabilization or improvement in their clinical status.

Meet the Classes of Directly Acting Antiviral Agents: Strengths and Weaknesses

This article discusses direct-acting antiviral agents that target hepatitis C virus replication, their mechanism of action, strengths, and weaknesses. In addition, varying strategies using combinations of these agents are discussed.

Update on management of patients with overt hepatic encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a multifactorial neuropsychiatric disease that affects patients with cirrhosis. We review the clinical impact, pathogenesis, evaluation, management, and prevention of overt HE in patients with cirrhosis. Articles published between January 1960 and November 2012 were acquired through a MEDLINE search of different combinations of the terms hepatic encephalopathy, pathophysiology, treatment, prophylaxis, prevention, prognosis, and recurrence. The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project database was used to obtain prevalence and cost information related to hospitalizations of patients with HE. The literature describes significant morbidity and mortality of HE in patients with cirrhosis. Overt HE develops in 30% to 45% of patients with cirrhosis and is associated with a substantial pharmacoeconomic burden, particularly HE-related hospitalizations. The development of HE in patients with cirrhosis portends a worsened prognosis and is incorporated into the Child-Pugh classification of the severity of liver disease. In the hospitalized patient, the development of HE is associated with precipitating events (eg, gastrointestinal bleeding, dehydration, infection), and in some patients, its course is characterized by frequent and severe relapses. In addition, hospitalized patients with overt HE have a 3.9-fold increased mortality risk. Patient management employs nonabsorbable disaccharides, the nonsystemic antibiotic rifaximin, or both, to treat acute HE episodes and prevent HE relapse. In open-label trials, use of the nonabsorbable disaccharide lactulose reduced the risk of overt HE recurrence in patients compared with no-lactulose control groups for ≤ a median of 14 months. In a randomized, placebo-controlled trial, rifaximin 550 mg twice daily was more effective in maintaining HE remission compared with placebo and was associated with a reduction in HE-related hospitalizations. Recent advances in treatment and preventative therapies may reduce the personal, societal, and economic impact of this disorder.