Climate change market-driven poleward shifts in cropland production create opportunities for tropical biodiversity conservation and habitat restoration

Although the impacts of climate change on the yields of crops have been studied, how these changes will result in the eventual realized crop production through market feedbacks has received little attention. Using a combination of attainable yield predictions for wheat, rice, maize, soybean and sugarcane, computable general equilibrium and land rent models, we project market impacts and crop-specific land-use change up to 2100 and the resulting implications for carbon and biodiversity. The results show a general increase in crop prices in tropical regions and a decrease in sub-tropical and temperate regions. Land-use change driven by market feedbacks generally amplify the effects of climate change on yields. Wheat, maize and sugarcane are projected to experience the most expansion especially in Canada and Russia, which also present the highest potential for habitat conversion-driven carbon emissions. Conversely, Latin America presents the highest extinction potential for birds, mammals and amphibians due to cropland expansion. Climate change is likely to redistribute agricultural production, generating market-driven land-use feedback effects which could, counterintuitively, protect global biodiversity by shifting global food production towards less-biodiverse temperate regions while creating substantial restoration opportunities in the tropics.

Intranational synergies and trade-offs reveal common and differentiated priorities of sustainable development goals in China

Accelerating efforts for the Sustainable Development Goals requires understanding their synergies and trade-offs at the national and sub-national levels, which will help identify the key hurdles and opportunities to prioritize them in an indivisible manner for a country. Here, we present the importance of the 17 goals through synergy and trade-off networks. Our results reveal that 19 provinces show the highest trade-offs in SDG13 (Combating Climate Change) or SDG5 (Gender Equality) consistent with the national level, with other 12 provinces varying. 24 provinces show the highest synergies in SDG1 (No Poverty) or SDG6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) consistent with the national level, with the remaining 7 provinces varying. These common but differentiated SDG priorities reflect that to ensure a coordinated national response, China should pay more attention to the provincial situation, so that provincial governments can formulate more targeted policies in line with their own priorities towards accelerating sustainable development.

Indigenous Peoples' Lands are critical for safeguarding vertebrate diversity across the tropics

Indigenous Peoples are long-term custodians of their lands, but only recently are their contributions to conservation starting to be recognized in biodiversity policy and practice. Tropical forest loss and degradation are lower in Indigenous lands than unprotected areas, yet the role of Indigenous Peoples' Lands (IPL) in biodiversity conservation has not been properly assessed from regional to global scales. Using species distribution ranges of 11,872 tropical forest-dependent vertebrates to create area of habitat maps, we identified the overlap of these species ranges with IPL and then compared values inside and outside of IPL for species richness, extinction vulnerability, and range-size rarity. Of assessed vertebrates, at least 76.8% had range overlaps with IPL, on average overlapping ~25% of their ranges; at least 120 species were found only within IPL. Species richness within IPL was highest in South America, while IPL in Southeast Asia had highest extinction vulnerability, and IPL in Dominica and New Caledonia were important for range-size rarity. Most countries in the Americas had higher species richness within IPL than outside, whereas most countries in Asia had lower extinction vulnerability scores inside IPL and more countries in Africa and Asia had slightly higher range-size rarity in IPL. Our findings suggest that IPL provide critical support for tropical forest-dependent vertebrates, highlighting the need for greater inclusion of Indigenous Peoples in conservation target-setting and program implementation, and stronger upholding of Indigenous Peoples' rights in conservation policy.

Indigenous lands in protected areas have high forest integrity across the tropics

Intact tropical forests have a high conservation value.¹ Although perceived as wild,² they have been under long-term human influence.³ As global area-based conservation targets increase, the ecological contributions of Indigenous peoples through their governance institutions and practices⁴ are gaining mainstream interest. Indigenous lands-covering a quarter of Earth's surface⁵ and overlapping with a third of intact forests⁶-often have reduced deforestation, degradation, and carbon emissions, compared with non-protected areas and protected areas.^7,8 A key question with implications for the design of more equitable and effective conservation policies is to understand the impacts of Indigenous lands on forest integrity and long-term use, as critical measures of ecosystem health included within the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.⁹ Using the forest landscape integrity index¹⁰ and Anthromes¹¹ datasets, we find that high-integrity forests tend to be located within the overlap of protected areas and Indigenous lands (protected-Indigenous areas). After accounting for location biases through statistical matching and regression, protected-Indigenous areas had the highest protective effect on forest integrity and the lowest land-use intensity relative to Indigenous lands, protected areas, and non-protected controls pan-tropically. The protective effect of Indigenous lands on forest integrity was lower in Indigenous lands than in protected areas and non-protected areas in the Americas and Asia. The combined positive effects of state legislation and Indigenous presence in protected-Indigenous areas may contribute to maintaining tropical forest integrity. Understanding management and governance in protected-Indigenous areas can help states to appropriately support community-governed lands.

Leave no one behind: A case of ecosystem service supply equity in Singapore

Urban populations benefit greatly from the ecosystem services provided by urban green and blue spaces. While the equity of provision of and access to urban green and blue spaces has been widely explored, research on equity of ecosystem service provision is relatively scant. Using household level data, our study aims to assess the supply equity of five regulatory ecosystem services in Singapore. We employed linear mixed-effects models and Hot Spot Analysis to analyze their distributional equity across individual households of various demographic characteristics (horizontal inequality), and calculated Gini coefficient for the distribution of PM10 removal service among households categorised into demographic subgroups (vertical inequality). Our results show little evidence of inequitable ecosystem service provision among Singapore's diverse socio-demographic groups. This can be attributed to the early integration of environmental management strategies and meticulous socio-economic desegregation efforts into urban development plans, which maximised provision and maintenance of urban green spaces to all residents.

People's desire to be in nature and how they experience it are partially heritable

Nature experiences have been linked to mental and physical health. Despite the importance of understanding what determines individual variation in nature experience, the role of genes has been overlooked. Here, using a twin design (TwinsUK, number of individuals = 2,306), we investigate the genetic and environmental contributions to a person's nature orientation, opportunity (living in less urbanized areas), and different dimensions of nature experience (frequency and duration of public nature space visits and frequency and duration of garden visits). We estimate moderate heritability of nature orientation (46%) and nature experiences (48% for frequency of public nature space visits, 34% for frequency of garden visits, and 38% for duration of garden visits) and show their genetic components partially overlap. We also find that the environmental influences on nature experiences are moderated by the level of urbanization of the home district. Our study demonstrates genetic contributions to individuals' nature experiences, opening a new dimension for the study of human-nature interactions.

Threats to land and environmental defenders in nature's last strongholds

Land and environmental defenders are a major bulwark against environmental destruction and biodiversity loss resulting from unsustainable nature resource extraction. Resultant conflicts can lead to violence against and deaths of these defenders. Along with mounting environmental pressures, homicides of these defenders are increasing globally. Yet, this issue has only recently started to receive scientific attention. While existing studies indicate the importance of socio-economic processes in driving such murders, spatially explicit global analyses considering environmental components are largely missing. Here, we take a broad spatial approach to assess relative contributions of environmental factors to the killing of environmental defenders. We find higher rates of such homicides are typically found in areas where limited or underutilized resources (e.g., freshwater, land and forests) are more available. Our results point towards a prevalent global land scarcity that results in industries targeting the last remaining strongholds for biodiversity and the environmental defenders within.

Genetic Contribution to Concern for Nature and Proenvironmental Behavior

Earth is undergoing a devastating extinction crisis caused by human impacts on nature, but only a fraction of society is strongly concerned and acting on the crisis. Understanding what determines people's concern for nature, environmental movement activism, and personal conservation behavior is fundamental if sustainability is to be achieved. Despite its potential importance, the study of the genetic contribution to concern for nature and proenvironmental behaviors has been neglected. Using a twin data set (N = 2312), we show moderate heritability (30%–40%) for concern for nature, environmental movement activism, and personal conservation behavior and high genetic correlations between them (.6–.7), suggesting a partially shared genetic basis. Our results shed light on the individual variation in sustainable behaviors, highlighting the importance of understanding both the environmental and genetic components in the pursuit of sustainability.

Having a stake in the future and perceived population density influence intergenerational cooperation

Intergenerational common-pool resource games represent a new experimental paradigm in which the current generation's decision to cooperate or defect influences future generations who cannot reciprocate, providing key insights for sustainability science. We combine experimental and theoretical approaches to assess the roles of having a stake in the future (50% chance to pass the resource on to themselves in the next generation) and reminders of the presence of others (exposure to people-chatting sounds) on intergenerational cooperation. We find that, as expected, having a stake in the future increases cooperation with future generations, except when participants are also exposed to people-chatting sounds. We hypothesize that this interaction effect occurs because people-chatting sounds trigger a perception of large group size, which reduces the chance of individuals and their descendants benefiting from the pool in the future, thus reducing cooperation. Our results highlight the context-dependent effect of having a future stake on intergenerational cooperation for resource sustainability, and suggest an area of future work for environmental messaging.

Coordinated intensification to reconcile the 'zero hunger' and 'life on land' Sustainable Development Goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encourage nations to substantially increase food production to achieve zero hunger (SDG 2) while preserving life on land (SDG 15). A key question is how to reconcile these potentially competing goals spatially. We use integer linear programming to develop an 'integrated land use planning framework' that identifies the optimal allocation of 17 crops under different hypothetical conservation targets while meeting agricultural demands by 2030. Intensifying existing cropland to maximum yield before allocating new cropland would reduce land requirement by 43% versus cropland expansion without intensification. Even with yield gap closure, tropical and sub-tropical crops still require expansion, primarily allocated to Venezuela, eastern Brazil, Congo Basin, Myanmar and Indonesia. Enforcement of protected areas, via avoiding conversion in 75% of Key Biodiversity Areas and 65% of intact areas, is vital to attain biodiversity targets but bears large opportunity costs, with agricultural rents dropping from $4.1 to $2.8 trillion. Although nationally constrained forest conservation efforts would earn 9% less agricultural rents compared to globally coordinated conservation solutions, they were also able to reduce intact habitat and forest loss (43% and 35% reduction). Our results demonstrate that careful choice of the allocation of future cropland expansion, could dramatically reduce-but not eliminate-the tradeoffs between the SDGs for food production and land biodiversity conservation.

Evaluating a large-scale online behaviour change intervention aimed at wildlife product consumers in Singapore

Interventions to shift the behaviour of consumers using unsustainable wildlife products are key to threatened species conservation. Whether these interventions are effective is largely unknown due to a dearth of detailed evaluations. We previously conducted a country-level online behaviour change intervention targeting consumers of the Critically Endangered saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica) horn in Singapore. To evaluate intervention impact, we carried out in-person consumer surveys with >2,000 individuals pre- and post-intervention (2017 and 2019), and 93 in-person post-intervention surveys with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) shopkeepers (2019). The proportion of self-reported high-usage saiga horn consumers in the target audience (Chinese Singaporean women aged 35-59) did not change significantly from pre- to post-intervention (24.4% versus 22.6%). However, post-intervention the target audience was significantly more likely than the non-target audience to accurately recall the intervention message and to report a decrease in saiga horn usage (4% versus 1% reported a behaviour change). Within the target audience, high-usage consumers were significantly more likely than lower-usage consumers to recall the message and report a behaviour change. Across respondents who reported a decrease in saiga horn usage, they cited the intervention message as a specific reason for their behaviour change significantly more than other reasons. Additionally, across all respondents, the belief that saiga is a common species in the wild decreased significantly from pre- to post-intervention. TCM shopkeepers, however, cited factors such as price and availability as the strongest influences on saiga horn sales. In sum, the intervention did significantly influence some consumers but the reduction of high-usage consumer frequency was not significant at the population level. We explore reasons for these findings, including competing consumer influences, characteristics of the intervention, and evaluation timing. This work suggests our intervention approach has potential, and exemplifies a multi-pronged in-person evaluation of an online wildlife trade consumer intervention.

Using mobile phone data to examine weather impacts on recreational ecosystem services in an urban protected area

Mobile phone big data can offer new opportunities for identifying weather impacts on recreational ecosystem services in protected areas. This could be useful to assess how climate change could affect recreational ecosystem services. To explore these opportunities, we utilize mobile phone data and examine impacts of tropical weather (temperature, rainfall, and wind) and holidays on visitor numbers and stay time in an urban protected area in Singapore. These impacts were analyzed by visitors’ home regions and ethnic groups as well. The study results showed that rising temperatures below 31.7 °C had positive impacts on visitor numbers, in contrast to the common perception that cooler temperatures would be always preferred for outdoor activities in a tropical region. Meanwhile, these rising temperatures reduced visitor stay time in the protected area. Rain and wind had limited impacts on visitors. Compared to the weather variables, holidays had bigger impacts on visitors, particularly the Chinese group and those visitors living not close to the protected area. The study results highlight several advantages of mobile phone data application to analyzing weather impacts on public use of urban protected areas.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the main dengue vector populations in Singapore

BACKGROUND

Despite the licensure of the world's first dengue vaccine and the current development of additional vaccine candidates, successful Aedes control remains critical to the reduction of dengue virus transmission. To date, there is still limited literature that attempts to explain the spatio-temporal population dynamics of Aedes mosquitoes within a single city, which hinders the development of more effective citywide vector control strategies. Narrowing this knowledge gap requires consistent and longitudinal measurement of Aedes abundance across the city as well as examination of relationships between variables on a much finer scale.

METHODS

We utilized a high-resolution longitudinal dataset generated from Singapore's islandwide Gravitrap surveillance system over a 2-year period and built a Bayesian hierarchical model to explain the spatio-temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to a wide range of environmental and anthropogenic variables. We also created a baseline during our model assessment to serve as a benchmark to be compared with the model's out-of-sample prediction/forecast accuracy as measured by the mean absolute error.

RESULTS

For both Aedes species, building age and nearby managed vegetation cover were found to have a significant positive association with the mean mosquito abundance, with the former being the strongest predictor. We also observed substantial evidence of a nonlinear effect of weekly maximum temperature on the Aedes abundance. Our models generally yielded modest but statistically significant reductions in the out-of-sample prediction/forecast error relative to the baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that public residential estates with older buildings and more nearby managed vegetation should be prioritized for vector control inspections and community advocacy to reduce the abundance of Aedes mosquitoes and the risk of dengue transmission.

Drivers of deforestation and degradation for 28 tropical conservation landscapes

Analysing the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in conservation landscapes can provide crucial information for conservation management. While rates of forest loss can be measured through remote sensing, on the ground information is needed to confirm the commodities and actors behind deforestation. We administered a questionnaire to Wildlife Conservation Society's landscape managers to assess the deforestation drivers in 28 tropical conservation landscapes. Commercial and subsistence agriculture were the main drivers of deforestation, followed by settlement expansion and infrastructure development. Rice, rubber, cassava and maize were the crops most frequently cited as drivers of deforestation in these emblematic conservation landscapes. Landscape managers expected deforestation trends to continue at similar or greater magnitude in the future, calling for urgent measures to mitigate these trends.

Mapping the cryptic spread of the 2015-2016 global Zika virus epidemic

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global epidemic in 2015-2016 from Latin America with its true geographical extent remaining unclear due to widely presumed underreporting. The identification of locations with potential and unknown spread of ZIKV is a key yet understudied component for outbreak preparedness. Here, we aim to identify locations at a high risk of cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016 to further the understanding of the global ZIKV epidemiology, which is critical for the mitigation of the risk of future epidemics.

METHODS

We developed an importation simulation model to estimate the weekly number of ZIKV infections imported in each susceptible spatial unit (i.e. location that did not report any autochthonous Zika cases during 2015-2016), integrating epidemiological, demographic, and travel data as model inputs. Thereafter, a global risk model was applied to estimate the weekly ZIKV transmissibility during 2015-2016 for each location. Finally, we assessed the risk of onward ZIKV spread following importation in each susceptible spatial unit to identify locations with a high potential for cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016.

RESULTS

We have found 24 susceptible spatial units that were likely to have experienced cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016, of which 10 continue to have a high risk estimate within a highly conservative scenario, namely, Luanda in Angola, Banten in Indonesia, Maharashtra in India, Lagos in Nigeria, Taiwan and Guangdong in China, Dakar in Senegal, Maputo in Mozambique, Kinshasa in Congo DRC, and Pool in Congo. Notably, among the 24 susceptible spatial units identified, some have reported their first ZIKV outbreaks since 2017, thus adding to the credibility of our results (derived using 2015-2016 data only).

CONCLUSION

Our study has provided valuable insights into the potentially high-risk locations for cryptic ZIKV circulation during the 2015-2016 pandemic and has also laid a foundation for future studies that attempt to further narrow this key knowledge gap. Our modelling framework can be adapted to identify areas with likely unknown spread of other emerging vector-borne diseases, which has important implications for public health readiness especially in resource-limited settings.

Reconciling Rubber Expansion with Biodiversity Conservation

Over five million hectares of tropical forest were cleared across mainland Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa for rubber plantations between 2003 and 2017 [1, 2]. Millions of hectares of further clearance are predicted as rubber demand rises, which will have major consequences for biodiversity [3]. A key question is how to reconcile rubber expansion with biodiversity conservation. We assessed the feasibility of simultaneously meeting global future demand for rubber with conservation of extinction-threatened amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles. We compared the spatial congruence of rubber bioclimatic suitability with extinction vulnerability [4] in Africa, Asia, and New Guinea, where large-scale rubber cultivation is viable, and simulated rubber expansion under different scenarios. We found no "win-win" areas with highest rubber suitability and lowest extinction vulnerability. Projected rubber demand could be met by allowing expansion primarily in New Guinea and African Guinea. However, New Guinea has high ecosystem intactness and both regions are rich in endemics. Scenarios suggest converting only areas suitable for cultivation would cause the largest biodiversity losses, including endangered species, whereas prioritizing conservation would result in only the conversion of highly unsuitable land. Compromise scenarios that balance production with conservation could cut biodiversity losses by two-thirds, protecting most endangered species while maintaining high rubber suitability. Development of high-yielding hardy clones expands the amount of win-win areas, as well as suitable areas with high extinction risk. These trade-offs reveal that clonal research and development, strategic corporate and government land-use policies, and rigorous impact assessments are needed to prevent severe biodiversity losses from rubber development.

Proceedings from the OMS Resurgence Conference for resuming clinical practice after COVID-19 in the USA

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered and reshaped the delivery of oral and maxillofacial surgery (OMS) over the past few months. As the USA gradually lifts restrictions and re-opens, surgeons must adjust accordingly. Therefore, the OMS Resurgence Conference: Safely Resuming Practice with a New Normal was organized for 11 May 2020 to gather and disseminate expert opinions and recommendations for OMSs to thoughtfully resume work with efficiency and safety. This manuscript offers a summary of the highlights from the conference discussion.

Travel cost analysis of an urban protected area and parks in Singapore: a mobile phone data application

Big data have the potential to improve nonmarket valuation, but their application has been scarce. To test this potential, we apply mobile phone data to the zonal travel cost method and measure recreational ecosystem services from Bukit Timah (representing an urban protected area) and Jurong Lake Gardens (an urban recreational park) in Singapore. The study results show that the annual recreational benefits of the recreational park (S$54,698,761 to S$66,805,454) outweighed the benefits of the protected area (S$6,947,974 to S$9,068,027). The count data structure reduced the flexibility of the mobile phone data application. Compared to survey data, however, mobile phone data could prevent random errors and visitor memory biases; monitor impacts of site quality changes over time; count visitors from multiple entrances; and be cost-efficient. Overall, these results highlight the potential of mobile phone data application to improve travel cost analysis.

Correction: Saiga horn user characteristics, motivations, and purchasing behaviour in Singapore

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0222038.].

Saiga horn user characteristics, motivations, and purchasing behaviour in Singapore

Unsustainable wildlife trade is a pervasive issue affecting wildlife globally. To address this issue, a plethora of demand reduction efforts have been carried out. These necessitate consumer research which provides crucial knowledge for designing and evaluating targeted interventions. We implemented a rigorous consumer survey on saiga (Saiga tatarica) horn use in Singapore, where usage is legal and widely sold. Saiga are Critically Endangered antelopes from Central Asia with horns (often marketed as ling yang) used in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). Few past studies have assessed saiga horn consumers. This work is the most extensive consumer research to date specifically characterising saiga horn consumers and usage. We conducted 2294 in-person surveys on saiga horn use with Chinese Singaporeans, employing neutral questioning approaches. We found 19% of individuals reported saiga horn as a product they choose most often for themselves and/or others when treating fever and/or heatiness (a TCM state of illness), indicating a minimum estimate of high-frequency usage, not including possible low-frequency users. Overall saiga users were most characterised as middle-aged Buddhists and Taoists. However, saiga users were found in a range of demographic groups. Women preferred saiga shavings (the more traditional form), while men preferred saiga cooling water (the more modern form). About 53% of individuals who used saiga horn themselves also bought it for someone else. Buyers for others were most likely to be female middle-aged Buddhists or Taoists. Key motivating reasons for usage were "it works" and "someone recommended it to me." The top two reported recommenders were family and TCM shopkeepers. Saiga users were more likely than non-saiga users to perceive saiga as a common species in the wild. This research holds significance for interventions targeting saiga horn consumption within Singapore and throughout Asia, by identifying potential target audiences, product types, non-desirable alternatives, and motivations for use.

A global meta-analysis of the economic values of provisioning and cultural ecosystem services

Despite a growing demand to integrate ecosystem services into sustainability decision-making, our understanding of the global distribution of the economic value of ES is scarce. We extracted information from provisioning and cultural ecosystem services (PCES) from The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) database using a meta-analytical approach. We then employed geostatistical methods to analyze the relationship between economic values and environmental and socio-economic predictors. Here we show that anthropogenic related factors such as accessibility, spatially explicit gross domestic product and ecosystem services scarcity explain global trends of PCES economic values. We observe higher PCES values in agricultural areas of strong human presence such as the British Isles, Southwest of Brazil and India and lower values in less disturbed natural areas. These findings highlight the decisive role that human systems play in the economic realization of PCES and caution that single-criterion sustainability and conservation policies aimed at maximizing the economic returns of PCES may not overlap with wild nature.

Combined impacts of deforestation and wildlife trade on tropical biodiversity are severely underestimated

Tropical forest diversity is simultaneously threatened by habitat loss and exploitation for wildlife trade. Quantitative conservation assessments have previously considered these threats separately, yet their impacts frequently act together. We integrate forest extent maps in 2000 and 2015 with a method of quantifying exploitation pressure based upon a species’ commercial value and forest accessibility. We do so for 308 forest-dependent bird species, of which 77 are commercially traded, in the Southeast Asian biodiversity hotspot of Sundaland. We find 89% (274) of species experienced average habitat losses of 16% and estimate exploitation led to mean population declines of 37%. Assessing the combined impacts of deforestation and exploitation indicates the average losses of exploited species are much higher (54%), nearly doubling the regionally endemic species (from 27 to 51) threatened with extinction that should be IUCN Red Listed. Combined assessment of major threats is vital to accurately quantify biodiversity loss.

Disentangling multiple drivers of species declines can be difficult yet is critical to species conservation. Here, the authors parse the relative contributions of deforestation and trapping to declines of native birds in Southeast Asia, finding that the extinction risk of trapped species may be underestimated.

Linking national wood consumption with global biodiversity and ecosystem service losses

Identifying the global hotspots of forestry driven species, ecosystem services losses and informing the consuming nations of their environmental footprint domestically and abroad is essential to design demand side interventions and induce sustainable production methods. Here we first use countryside species area relationship model to project species extinctions of four vertebrate taxa (mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles) due to forest land use in 174 countries. We combine the projected extinctions with a global database on the monetary value of ecosystem services provided by different biomes and with bilateral trade data of wood products to calculate species extinctions and ecosystem services losses inflicted by national wood consumption and international wood trade. Results show that globally a total of 485 species are projected to go extinct due to current forest land use. About 32% of this projected loss can be attributed to land use devoted for export production. However, under the counterfactual scenario with the same consumption levels but no international trade of wood products, an additional 334 species are projected to go extinct. Globally, we find that losses of ecosystem services worth $1.5trillion/year are embodied in the timber trade. Compared to high-income nations, tropical countries such as Philippines, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Gambia and Bolivia presented the highest net ecosystem services losses (>3000US$/ha/year) that could not be compensated through current land rents, indicating underpriced exports. Small tropical countries also gained much lower rents per species extinction suffered. These results can help internalize these costs into the global trade through financial compensation mechanisms such as REDD+ or through price premiums on wood sourced from these countries. Overall the results can provide valuable insights for devising national strategies to meet several of the global Aichi 2020 biodiversity targets and can also be useful for life cycle assessment and product labelling schemes.

Loss of Notch3 Signaling Enhances Osteogenesis of Mesenchymal Stem Cells from Mandibular Torus

Mandibular torus (MT) is a common intraoral osseous outgrowth located on the lingual surface of the mandible. Histologic features include hyperplastic bone consisting of mature cortical and trabecular bone. Some theories on the etiology of MT have been postulated, such as genetic factors, masticatory hyperfunction, trauma, and continued growth, but the underlying mechanism remains largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the potential role of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) derived from human MT in the pathogenesis of bone outgrowth. We demonstrated that MT harbored a distinct subpopulation of MSCs, with enhanced osteogenic and decreased adipogenic differentiation capacities, as compared with their counterparts from normal jaw bone. The increased osteogenic differentiation of mandibular torus MSCs was associated with the suppression of Notch3 signaling and its downstream target genes, Jag1 and Hey1, and a reciprocal increase in the transcriptional activation of ATF4 and NFATc1 genes. Targeted knockdown of Notch3 expression by transient siRNA transfection promoted the expression of osteogenic transcription factors in normal jaw bone MSCs. Our data suggest that the loss of Notch3 signaling may contribute partly to bone outgrowth in MT, as mediated by enhanced MSC-driven osteogenic differentiation in the jaw bone.

Five challenges to reconcile agricultural land use and forest ecosystem services in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia possesses the highest rates of tropical deforestation globally and exceptional levels of species richness and endemism. Many countries in the region are also recognized for their food insecurity and poverty, making the reconciliation of agricultural production and forest conservation a particular priority. This reconciliation requires recognition of the trade-offs between competing land-use values and the subsequent incorporation of this information into policy making. To date, such reconciliation has been relatively unsuccessful across much of Southeast Asia. We propose an ecosystem services (ES) value-internalization framework that identifies the key challenges to such reconciliation. These challenges include lack of accessible ES valuation techniques; limited knowledge of the links between forests, food security, and human well-being; weak demand and political will for the integration of ES in economic activities and environmental regulation; a disconnect between decision makers and ES valuation; and lack of transparent discussion platforms where stakeholders can work toward consensus on negotiated land-use management decisions. Key research priorities to overcome these challenges are developing easy-to-use ES valuation techniques; quantifying links between forests and well-being that go beyond economic values; understanding factors that prevent the incorporation of ES into markets, regulations, and environmental certification schemes; understanding how to integrate ES valuation into policy making processes, and determining how to reduce corruption and power plays in land-use planning processes.

International trade causes large net economic losses in tropical countries via the destruction of ecosystem services

Despite the large implications of the use of tropical land for exports ("land absorption") on ecosystem services (ES) and global biodiversity conservation, the magnitude of these externalities is not known. We quantify the net value of ES lost in tropical countries as a result of cropland, forestland and pastureland absorption for exports after deducting ES gains through imports ("land displacement"). We find that net ES gains occur only in 7 out of the 41 countries and regions considered. We estimate global annual net losses of over 1.7 x 10(12) international dollars (I$) (I$1.1 x 10(12) if carbon-related services are not considered). After deducting the benefits from agricultural, forest and livestock rents in land replacing tropical forests, the net annual losses are I$1.3 and I$0.7 x 10(12), respectively. The results highlight the large magnitude of tropical ES losses through international trade that are not compensated by the rents of land uses in absorbed land.

A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia

A key justification to support plant health regulations is the ability of quarantine services to conduct pest risk analyses (PRA). Despite the supranational nature of biological invasions and the close proximity and connectivity of Southeast Asian countries, PRAs are conducted at the national level. Furthermore, some countries have limited experience in the development of PRAs, which may result in inadequate phytosanitary responses that put their plant resources at risk to pests vectored via international trade. We review existing decision support schemes for PRAs and, following international standards for phytosanitary measures, propose new methods that adapt existing practices to suit the unique characteristics of Southeast Asia. Using a formal written expert elicitation survey, a panel of regional scientific experts was asked to identify and rate unique traits of Southeast Asia with respect to PRA. Subsequently, an expert elicitation workshop with plant protection officials was conducted to verify the potential applicability of the developed methods. Rich biodiversity, shortage of trained personnel, social vulnerability, tropical climate, agriculture-dependent economies, high rates of land-use change, and difficulties in implementing risk management options were identified as challenging Southeast Asian traits. The developed methods emphasize local Southeast Asian conditions and could help support authorities responsible for carrying out PRAs within the region. These methods could also facilitate the creation of other PRA schemes in low- and middle-income tropical countries.

Why do we lose protected areas? Factors influencing protected area downgrading, downsizing and degazettement in the tropics and subtropics

Protected areas (PAs) are an essential tool for the conservation of biodiversity globally. Previous studies have focussed on the effectiveness of PAs and the design of optimal PA networks. However, not all PAs remain intact permanently; many PAs undergo downgrading, downsizing and/or degazettement (PADDD), a fact largely ignored until recently. The drivers of enacted PADDD events and the factors influencing its spatial occurrence are poorly understood, potentially undermining the efficacy of PAs and PA networks. Here we examine the spatial relationship between PADDD and economic, demographic and structural variables, using a 110-year data set of 342 enacted PADDD events across 44 countries in the tropics and subtropics. We find that the probability of an enacted PADDD event increases with the size of the PA and through a synergistic interaction between PA size and local population densities. Our results are robust to the under-reporting of enacted PADDD events that occur among smaller PAs and in regions with lower population density. We find an economic motive for PADDD events, given that the opportunity costs associated with larger PAs are higher, on average, than smaller PAs. Our findings suggest a need for conservation practitioners to better consider PA characteristics, as well as the social, economic and political context in which PAs are situated, to aid the creation of more efficient and sustainable PA networks. In particular, the dynamics of enacted PADDD events highlight the need to explicitly consider PA robustness as a core component of systematic conservation planning for PA networks.

Quantifying the role of online news in linking conservation research to Facebook and Twitter

Conservation science needs to engage the general public to ensure successful conservation interventions. Although online technologies such as Twitter and Facebook offer new opportunities to accelerate communication between conservation scientists and the online public, factors influencing the spread of conservation news in online media are not well understood. We explored transmission of conservation research through online news articles with generalized linear mixed-effects models and an information theoretic approach. In particular, we assessed differences in the frequency conservation research is featured on online news sites and the impact of online conservation news content and delivery on Facebook likes and shares and Twitter tweets. Five percent of articles in conservation journals are reported in online news, and the probability of reporting depended on the journal. There was weak evidence that articles on climate change and mammals were more likely to be featured. Online news articles about charismatic mammals with illustrations were more likely to be shared or liked on Facebook and Twitter, but the effect of news sites was much larger. These results suggest journals have the greatest impact on which conservation research is featured and that news site has the greatest impact on how popular an online article will be on Facebook and Twitter.

A ranking of net national contributions to climate change mitigation through tropical forest conservation

Deforestation in tropical regions causes 15% of global anthropogenic carbon emissions and reduces the mitigation potential of carbon sequestration services. A global market failure occurs as the value of many ecosystem services provided by forests is not recognised by the markets. Identifying the contribution of individual countries to tropical carbon stocks and sequestration might help identify responsibilities and facilitate debate towards the correction of the market failure through international payments for ecosystem services. We compare and rank tropical countries' contributions by estimating carbon sequestration services vs. emissions disservices. The annual value of tropical carbon sequestration services in 2010 from 88 tropical countries was estimated to range from $2.8 to $30.7 billion, using market and social prices of carbon respectively. Democratic Republic of Congo, India and Sudan contribute the highest net carbon sequestration, whereas Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia are the highest net emitters.

A framework for assessing supply-side wildlife conservation

Market-based, supply-side interventions such as domestication, cultivation, and wildlife farming have been proposed as legal substitutes for wild-collected plants and animals in the marketplace. Based on the literature, we devised a list of the conditions under which supply-side interventions may yield positive conservation outcomes. We applied it to the trade of the orchid Rhynchostylis gigantea, a protected ornamental plant. We conducted a survey of R. gigantea at Jatujak Market in Bangkok, Thailand. Farmed (legal) and wild (illegal, protected) specimens of R. gigantea were sold side-by-side at market. These results suggest farmed specimens are not being substituted for wild plants in the marketplace. For any given set of physical plant characteristics (size, condition, flowers), the origin of the plants (wild vs. farmed) did not affect price. For all price classes, farmed plants were of superior quality to wild-collected plants on the basis of most physical variables. These results suggest wild and farmed specimens represent parallel markets and may not be substitutable goods. Our results with R. gigantea highlight a range of explanations for why supply-side interventions may lack effectiveness, for example, consumer preferences for wild-collected products and low financial incentives for farming. Our results suggest that market-based conservation strategies may not be effective by themselves and may be best utilized as supplements to regulation and education. This approach represents a broad, multidisciplinary evaluation of supply-side interventions that can be applied to other plant and animal species.

Optimal and robust control of invasive alien species spreading in homogeneous landscapes

Government agencies lack robust modelling tools to manage the spread of invasive alien species (IAS). In this paper, we combine optimal control and simulation methods with biological invasion spread theory to estimate the type of optimal policy and switching point of control efforts against a spreading IAS. We employ information-gap (info-gap) theory to assess how the optimal solutions differ from a policy that is most robustly immune to unacceptable outcomes. The model is applied to the potential invasion of the Colorado potato beetle in the UK. Under no uncertainty, we demonstrate that for many of the parameter combinations the optimal control policy corresponds to slowing down the invasion. The info-gap analysis shows that eradication policies identified as optimal under no uncertainty are robustly the best policies even under severe uncertainty, i.e. even if they are likely to turn into slowing down policies. We also show that the control of satellite colonies, if identified as optimal under no uncertainty, will also be a robust slowing down policy for IAS that can spread by long distance dispersal even for relatively ineffective control measures. The results suggest that agencies adopt management strategies that are robustly optimal, despite the severe uncertainties they face.