Pregnancy-Associated Firearm Mortality in the U.S., 2008-2019

INTRODUCTION

This study analyzed the contribution of firearms to pregnancy-associated mortality from homicide and suicide.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Violent Death Reporting System from 2008 to 2019. Women aged 15-44 years who died by suicide (intentional self-harm) and homicide where a firearm was involved were included. Persons without known pregnancy status were excluded. Pregnancy-associated deaths were defined as those that occurred during pregnancy or within 1 year of pregnancy (early and late postpartum). Sociodemographic characteristics and social and circumstantial differences were compared between pregnancy-associated and nonpregnant-associated deaths. Data analysis was conducted in 2022-2023.

RESULTS

A total of 1,803 homicide and 1,929 suicide deaths from firearms were included. Twenty-two percent (n=388) and 11% (n=212) of firearm homicides and suicides, respectively, were pregnancy associated. Victims of pregnancy associated homicide were predominantly Black (54.8%), were single (76%), and had high school diploma or equivalent degree (41.2%). Victims of pregnancy-associated suicide were predominantly White (80.5%). Among pregnancy-associated homicides and suicides, deaths occurred more frequently during pregnancy (63.4% and 40.3%). Pregnancy-associated homicides more frequently occurred in the victim's home than nonpregnancy-associated homicides (51.5% vs 46.7%, p=0.02) and was related to ongoing conflict or violence between a current or former partner (61.6% vs 51.9%, p<0.001). Pregnancy-associated suicides more frequently occurred in those who experienced intimate partner violence within a month of death than non-pregnancy-associated suicide (4.2% vs 1.3%, p=0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Although there are differences in demographic characteristics between victims, interpersonal violence is associated with both pregnancy-associated homicides and suicides where a firearm was involved.

Identifying Rare Circumstances Preceding Female Firearm Suicides: Validating A Large Language Model Approach

BACKGROUND

Firearm suicide has been more prevalent among males, but age-adjusted female firearm suicide rates increased by 20% from 2010 to 2020, outpacing the rate increase among males by about 8 percentage points, and female firearm suicide may have different contributing circumstances. In the United States, the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) is a comprehensive source of data on violent deaths and includes unstructured incident narrative reports from coroners or medical examiners and law enforcement. Conventional natural language processing approaches have been used to identify common circumstances preceding female firearm suicide deaths but failed to identify rarer circumstances due to insufficient training data.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to leverage a large language model approach to identify infrequent circumstances preceding female firearm suicide in the unstructured coroners or medical examiners and law enforcement narrative reports available in the NVDRS.

METHODS

We used the narrative reports of 1462 female firearm suicide decedents in the NVDRS from 2014 to 2018. The reports were written in English. We coded 9 infrequent circumstances preceding female firearm suicides. We experimented with predicting those circumstances by leveraging a large language model approach in a yes/no question-answer format. We measured the prediction accuracy with F1-score (ranging from 0 to 1). F1-score is the harmonic mean of precision (positive predictive value) and recall (true positive rate or sensitivity).

RESULTS

Our large language model outperformed a conventional support vector machine-supervised machine learning approach by a wide margin. Compared to the support vector machine model, which had F1-scores less than 0.2 for most infrequent circumstances, our large language model approach achieved an F1-score of over 0.6 for 4 circumstances and 0.8 for 2 circumstances.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of a large language model approach shows promise. Researchers interested in using natural language processing to identify infrequent circumstances in narrative report data may benefit from large language models.

Provider Perspectives on Addressing Firearm Safety with Older Adults in Primary Care

OBJECTIVES

Chronic conditions, including mild cognitive impairment and depression, place older adults at high risk of firearm suicide. Approximately 40% of older adults have access to a firearm, and many do not store their firearms safely. However, firearm counseling occurs infrequently in clinical settings. Using by the Ottawa Decision Support Framework (ODSF) to conceptualize the decisional support needed by patients and their providers to facilitate firearm counseling, we explore provider perspectives on desired resources for addressing firearm safety with older adult patients.

METHODS

From March - August 2022, we conducted 21 semi-structured interviews with primary care providers caring for older adults. We report deductive concepts as well as emergent themes.

RESULTS

Major themes were identified from the three components of the ODSF; decisional needs, decision support and decisional outcomes. Themes included: provider self-efficacy to conduct firearm counseling, clinical workflow considerations, stories for change, patient diagnosis implications, and caregiver involvement.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a need for decision aids in the clinical setting that facilitate firearm counseling and promotes shared decision-making about firearm storage.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Implementing a decision aid in the clinical setting can improve provider self-efficacy to conduct firearm counseling and help reduce risk factors associated with firearm-related harm among older adults.

Characterizing Female Firearm Suicide Circumstances: A Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning Approach

INTRODUCTION

Since 2005, female firearm suicide rates increased by 34%, outpacing the rise in male firearm suicide rates over the same period. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a natural language processing pipeline to identify a select set of common and important circumstances preceding female firearm suicide from coroner/medical examiner and law enforcement narratives.

METHODS

Unstructured information from coroner/medical examiner and law enforcement narratives were manually coded for 1,462 randomly selected cases from the National Violent Death Reporting System. Decedents were included from 40 states and Puerto Rico from 2014 to 2018. Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Gradient Boosting classifier models were tuned using 5-fold cross-validation. Model performance was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, F1, and other metrics. Analyses were conducted from February to November 2022.

RESULTS

The natural language processing pipeline performed well in identifying recent interpersonal disputes, problems with intimate partners, acute/chronic pain, and intimate partners and immediate family at the scene. For example, the Support Vector Machine model had a mean of 98.1% specificity and 90.5% positive predictive value in classifying a recent interpersonal dispute before suicide. The Gradient Boosting model had a mean of 98.7% specificity and 93.2% positive predictive value in classifying a recent interpersonal dispute before suicide.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed a natural language processing pipeline to classify 5 female firearm suicide antecedents using narrative reports from the National Violent Death Reporting System, which may improve the examination of these circumstances. Practitioners and researchers should weigh the efficiency of natural language processing pipeline development against conventional text mining and manual review.

Older adults and planning for firearm safety: A qualitative study of healthcare providers

PURPOSE/BACKGROUND

Firearm injury, particularly self-directed, is a major source of preventable morbidity and mortality among older adults. Older adults are at elevated risk of serious illness, cognitive impairment, and depression-all known risk factors for suicide and/or unintentional injury. Healthcare providers are often the first to identify these conditions and, although they commonly deliver safety guidance to such patients, little is known about how they approach firearm safety conversations with older adults.

METHODS

We conducted semi-structured interviews with healthcare providers who care for older adults (November 2020-May 2021). We used inductive and deductive thematic analyses to develop themes. We present themes and representative quotes from our analysis.

RESULTS

We interviewed 13 healthcare providers who regularly care for older adult firearm owners. Emergent themes were: circumstances that prompt firearm safety conversations; strategies for addressing firearm safety in routine and acute circumstances; barriers to addressing firearm safety; and available or desired resources.

CONCLUSION

Planning for firearm safety should occur "early and often" as part of a longitudinal relationship with older adult patients. Age-related safety issues such as driving are regularly addressed with older adult patients, likely because there are standard processes and established pathways. Establishing processes and provider/ patient resources would help improve provider efficacy to address firearm safety and relinquishment for older adult firearm owners. Integrating firearm safety conversations into routine encounters (e.g., Medicare Annual Wellness Visit, problem-focused visits) templates could be a promising initial step but resources for follow-up to the firearm screening must be available to both provider and patient.

Suicide, Firearms, and Terminal Illness: A Latent Class Analysis Using Data From the National Violent Death Reporting System

OBJECTIVE

Firearms are highly lethal when used for suicide and are used more frequently as a suicide method by persons of older age. Individuals with terminal illness are at high risk for suicide, yet little research has explored how firearms may be used for self-harm in this population. The authors sought to understand the patterns of psychiatric diagnoses, substance use disorders diagnoses, and suicide mechanisms for individuals with terminal illness who died by suicide as well as their demographic and circumstantial characteristics.

METHODS

A latent class analysis using data from the National Violent Death Reporting System was undertaken to better understand typologies of individuals with terminal illness who died by suicide in 2003-2018 (N=3,072). To develop the classes, the authors considered diagnoses of mental illness and of alcohol or substance use disorders, suicidal thoughts and behaviors, and mechanism of suicide (firearm or no firearm). Demographic and circumstantial variables were examined across classes.

RESULTS

The analysis revealed four classes of persons with terminal illness who died from suicide: depression and nonfirearm methods (N=375, 12%), suicidal intent and firearm use (N=922, 30%), alcohol or substance use disorder and nonfirearm methods (N=70, 2%), and firearm use only (N=1,705, 56%).

CONCLUSIONS

Firearm access is an important consideration for terminally ill persons at risk for suicide. Screening for psychiatric and substance use disorders may not identify terminally ill persons who are at increased suicide risk because of the presence of a firearm in the home. This population may benefit from tailored interventions in specialty care settings to address firearm safety.

Examining the policy effects of Arizona's 2016 pre-emption law on firearm suicide rates in the greater Tucson area: an observational study

OBJECTIVE

In 2016, Arizona enacted SB 1487 to nullify Tucson's ordinance permitting the municipality to destroy confiscated and forfeited firearms and instead require the firearms to be resold to the public through an auctioneer. Our objective was to examine whether firearm suicide rates increased in Pima County (greater Tucson area) relative to other Arizona counties following the enactment of Arizona's 2016 pre-emption law.

DESIGN

An observational study of a natural policy experiment. We used a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the effects of Arizona enacting SB 1487 on firearm suicide rates in Pima County. Our statistical analyses adjusted for county-level differences in population demographics (age, gender and race) and unemployment rates, as well as a proxy for firearm availability and mental health professional shortage area status.

SETTING

9 Arizona counties from 2014 to 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

A policy group was constructed using Pima County (Tucson area) observations. A comparison group was created using data from eight other Arizona counties. 54 county-year observations were analysed.

INTERVENTION

SB 1487, which pre-empted Tucson law and allowed firearms that were seized/surrendered to law enforcement to be recirculated instead of destroyed.

OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Annual rates of firearm and non-firearm suicides per 100 000 persons extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER system.

RESULTS

Over the study period, comparison group counties had an average of 14.87 firearm suicides per 100 000 persons per year, compared with 11.56 firearm suicides per 100 000 persons per year in Pima County. A 1.13 increase in Pima County's firearm suicides per 100 000 persons coincided with the enactment of Arizona's 2016 pre-emption law, relative to comparison group counties over the same period.

CONCLUSIONS

SB 1487 was associated with higher firearm suicide rates in Pima County relative to other areas not targeted by the law, assuming fewer firearms were destroyed and more firearms re-entered the greater Tucson area through 2019.

Examining the Association of Billed Advance Care Planning With End-of-Life Hospital Admissions Among Advanced Cancer Patients in Hospice

BACKGROUND

Advance care planning (ACP), or the consideration and communication of care preferences for the end-of-life (EOL), is a critical process for improving quality of care for patients with advanced cancer. The incorporation of billed service codes for ACP allows for new inquiries on the association between systematic ACP and improved EOL outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

Using the IBM MarketScan® Database, we conducted a retrospective medical claims analysis for patients with an advanced cancer diagnosis and referral to hospice between January 2016 and December 2017. We evaluated the association between billed ACP services and EOL hospital admissions in the final 30 days of life.

DESIGN

This is a cross-sectional retrospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 3,705 patients met the study criteria.

MAIN MEASURES

ACP was measured via the presence of a billed ACP encounter (codes 99497 and 99498) prior to the last 30 days of life; hospital admissions included a dichotomous indicator for inpatient admission in the final 30 days of life.

KEY RESULTS

Controlling for key covariates, patients who received billed ACP were less likely to experience inpatient hospital admissions in the final 30 days of life compared to those not receiving billed ACP (OR: 0.34; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The receipt of a billed ACP encounter is associated with reduced EOL hospital admissions in a population of patients with advanced cancer on hospice care. Strategies for consistent, anticipatory delivery of billable ACP services prior to hospice referral may prevent potentially undesired late-life hospital admissions.

The Firearm Suicide Crisis: Physicians Can Make a Difference

Firearm suicide receives relatively little public attention in the United States, however, the United States is in the midst of a firearm suicide crisis. Most suicides are completed using a firearm. The age-adjusted firearm suicide rate increased 22.6% from 2005 to 2017, and globally the US firearm suicide rate is 8 times higher than the average firearm suicide rate of 22 other developed countries. The debate over how to solve the firearm suicide epidemic tends to focus on reducing the firearm supply or increasing access to behavioral health treatment. Ineffectual federal firearm control policies and inadequate behavioral health treatment access has heightened the need for primary care physicians to play a more meaningful role in firearm suicide prevention. We offer suggestions for how individual physicians and the collective medical community can take action to reduce mortality arising from firearm suicide and firearm deaths.

The Impact of Advance Care Planning on End-of-Life Care: Do the Type and Timing Make a Difference for Patients With Advanced Cancer Referred to Hospice?

Purpose:

This study aimed to determine the impact of advanced care planning (ACP) on potentially avoidable hospital admissions at the end of life (EOL) among a sample of hospice-referred patients with cancer, in order to present actionable considerations for the practicing clinician.

Methods:

This study was designed as a retrospective cohort using electronic health record data that assessed likelihood of hospital admissions in the last 30 days of life for 1185 patients with a primary diagnosis of cancer, referred to hospice between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2015, at a large academic medical center. Inverse probability treatment weighting based on calculated propensity scores balanced measured covariates between those with and without ACP at baseline. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated from estimated potential outcome means for the impact of ACP on admissions in the last 30 days of life.

Results:

A verified do-not-resuscitate (DNR) order prior to the last 30 days of life was associated with reduced odds of admission compared to those without a DNR (OR = 0.30; P < .001). An ACP note in the problem list prior to the last 30 days of life was associated with reduced odds of admission compared to those without an ACP note (OR = 0.71, P = .042), and further reduced odds if done 6 months prior to death (OR = 0.35, P < .001).

Conclusions:

This study shows that dedicated ACP documentation is associated with fewer admissions in the last 30 days of life for patients with advanced cancer referred to hospice. Improving ACP processes prior to hospice referral holds promise for reducing EOL admissions.

Examining Age Inequalities in Operationalized Components of Advance Care Planning: Truncation of the ACP Process With Age

CONTEXT

Opportunities for patients to receive unnecessary, costly, and potentially harmful care near the end of life abound. Advance care planning (ACP) can help to make this vulnerable period better for patients, caregivers, and providers.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine whether older age predicted the presence of certain forms of retrievable ACP documentation in the electronic health record (EHR) in a large sample of hospice-referred patients.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of medical-record data on 3595 patients referred to hospice between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015. EHR documentation of an ACP note in the problem list, presence of a scanned advance directive, and the presence of a verified do-not-resuscitate order were the outcome measures. Logistic regression was used to assess the effect of age, education, race, gender, cancer diagnosis, dementia diagnosis, palliative encounter, and death on the outcome variables.

RESULTS

Our results suggest that when we control for prognosis, patients over age 70 years may experience gaps in ACP communication. We found that as patients age, the odds of having documentation of a conversation (odds ratio [OR] = 0.56; P < 0.001) or scanned advance directive decreased (OR = 0.63; P < 0.001), while the odds of having a verified do-not-resuscitate order increased (OR = 1.42; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The results of this study may imply some degree of unilateral and physician-driven decision making for end-of-life care among older adults. Collaborative efforts between an interdisciplinary medical team should focus on developing policies to address this potential disparity between younger and older adults at the end of life.