Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Gait differences between COPD and healthy controls: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite the importance of gait as a determinant of falls, disability and mortality in older people, understanding of gait impairment in COPD is limited. This study aimed to identify differences in gait characteristics during supervised walking tests between people with COPD and healthy controls.

METHODS

We searched 11 electronic databases, supplemented by Google Scholar searches and manual collation of references, in November 2019 and updated the search in July 2021. Record screening and information extraction were performed independently by one reviewer and checked for accuracy by a second. Meta-analyses were performed in studies not considered at a high risk of bias.

RESULTS

Searches yielded 21 085 unique records, of which 25 were included in the systematic review (including 1015 people with COPD and 2229 healthy controls). Gait speed was assessed in 17 studies (usual speed: 12; fast speed: three; both speeds: two), step length in nine, step duration in seven, cadence in six, and step width in five. Five studies were considered at a high risk of bias. Low-quality evidence indicated that people with COPD walk more slowly than healthy controls at their usual speed (mean difference (MD) -19 cm·s-1, 95% CI -28 to -11 cm·s-1) and at a fast speed (MD -30 cm·s-1, 95% CI -47 to -13 cm·s-1). Alterations in other gait characteristics were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Low-quality evidence shows that people with COPD walk more slowly than healthy controls, which could contribute to an increased falls risk. The evidence for alterations in spatial and temporal components of gait was inconclusive. Gait impairment appears to be an important but understudied area in COPD.

Real-world walking cadence in people with COPD

Introduction

The clinical validity of real-world walking cadence in people with COPD is unsettled. Our objective was to assess the levels, variability and association with clinically relevant COPD characteristics and outcomes of real-world walking cadence.

Methods

We assessed walking cadence (steps per minute during walking bouts longer than 10 s) from 7 days' accelerometer data in 593 individuals with COPD from five European countries, and clinical and functional characteristics from validated questionnaires and standardised tests. Severe exacerbations during a 12-month follow-up were recorded from patient reports and medical registries.

Results

Participants were mostly male (80%) and had mean±sd age of 68±8 years, post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) of 57±19% predicted and walked 6880±3926 steps·day-1. Mean walking cadence was 88±9 steps·min-1, followed a normal distribution and was highly stable within-person (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). After adjusting for age, sex, height and number of walking bouts in fractional polynomial or linear regressions, walking cadence was positively associated with FEV1, 6-min walk distance, physical activity (steps·day-1, time in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, vector magnitude units, walking time, intensity during locomotion), physical activity experience and health-related quality of life and negatively associated with breathlessness and depression (all p<0.05). These associations remained after further adjustment for daily steps. In negative binomial regression adjusted for multiple confounders, walking cadence related to lower number of severe exacerbations during follow-up (incidence rate ratio 0.94 per step·min-1, 95% CI 0.91-0.99, p=0.009).

Conclusions

Higher real-world walking cadence is associated with better COPD status and lower severe exacerbations risk, which makes it attractive as a future prognostic marker and clinical outcome.

Investigating the prognostic value of digital mobility outcomes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Reduced mobility is a central feature of COPD. Assessment of mobility outcomes that can be measured digitally (digital mobility outcomes (DMOs)) in daily life such as gait speed and steps per day is increasingly possible using devices such as pedometers and accelerometers, but the predictive value of these measures remains unclear in relation to key outcomes such as hospital admission and survival.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review, nested within a larger scoping review by the MOBILISE-D consortium, addressing DMOs in a range of chronic conditions. Qualitative and quantitative analysis considering steps per day and gait speed and their association with clinical outcomes in COPD patients was performed.

RESULTS

21 studies (6076 participants) were included. Nine studies evaluated steps per day and 11 evaluated a measure reflecting gait speed in daily life. Negative associations were demonstrated between mortality risk and steps per day (per 1000 steps) (hazard ratio (HR) 0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.88, p<0.001), gait speed (<0.80 m·s-1) (HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.72-7.36, p<0.001) and gait speed (per 1.0 m·s-1) (HR 7.55, 95% CI 1.11-51.3, p=0.04). Fewer steps per day (per 1000) and slow gait speed (<0.80 m·s-1) were also associated with increased healthcare utilisation (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.88, p<0.001; OR 3.36, 95% CI 1.42-7.94, p=0.01, respectively). Available evidence was of low-moderate quality with few studies eligible for meta-analysis.

CONCLUSION

Daily step count and gait speed are negatively associated with mortality risk and other important outcomes in people with COPD and therefore may have value as prognostic indicators in clinical trials, but the quantity and quality of evidence is limited. Larger studies with consistent methodologies are called for.

Mobilizing Patient and Public Involvement in the Development of Real-World Digital Technology Solutions: Tutorial

Although the value of patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE) activities in the development of new interventions and tools is well known, little guidance exists on how to perform these activities in a meaningful way. This is particularly true within large research consortia that target multiple objectives, include multiple patient groups, and work across many countries. Without clear guidance, there is a risk that PPIE may not capture patient opinions and needs correctly, thereby reducing the usefulness and effectiveness of new tools. Mobilise-D is an example of a large research consortium that aims to develop new digital outcome measures for real-world walking in 4 patient cohorts. Mobility is an important indicator of physical health. As such, there is potential clinical value in being able to accurately measure a person's mobility in their daily life environment to help researchers and clinicians better track changes and patterns in a person's daily life and activities. To achieve this, there is a need to create new ways of measuring walking. Recent advancements in digital technology help researchers meet this need. However, before any new measure can be used, researchers, health care professionals, and regulators need to know that the digital method is accurate and both accepted by and produces meaningful outcomes for patients and clinicians. Therefore, this paper outlines how PPIE structures were developed in the Mobilise-D consortium, providing details about the steps taken to implement PPIE, the experiences PPIE contributors had within this process, the lessons learned from the experiences, and recommendations for others who may want to do similar work in the future. The work outlined in this paper provided the Mobilise-D consortium with a foundation from which future PPIE tasks can be created and managed with clearly defined collaboration between researchers and patient representatives across Europe. This paper provides guidance on the work required to set up PPIE structures within a large consortium to promote and support the creation of meaningful and efficient PPIE related to the development of digital mobility outcomes.

Validity of prognostic models of critical COVID-19 is variable. A systematic review with external validation

OBJECTIVES

To identify prognostic models which estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and to assess their validation properties.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit, and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n = 1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n = 1,104), by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots).

RESULTS

We validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in nine of them (AUCs ≥ 80%) and higher in those predicting mortality (AUCs 65%-87%) than those predicting intensive care unit admission or a composite outcome (AUCs 53%-78%). Calibration was poor in all models providing outcome's probabilities and good in four models providing a point-based score. These four models used mortality as outcome and included age, oxygen saturation, and C-reactive protein among their predictors.

CONCLUSION

The validity of models predicting critical COVID-19 by using only routinely collected predictors is variable. Four models showed good discrimination and calibration when externally validated and are recommended for their use.

Listening to the patients' voice: a conceptual framework of the walking experience

BACKGROUND

walking is crucial for an active and healthy ageing, but the perspectives of individuals living with walking impairment are still poorly understood.

OBJECTIVES

to identify and synthesise evidence describing walking as experienced by adults living with mobility-impairing health conditions and to propose an empirical conceptual framework of walking experience.

METHODS

we performed a systematic review and meta-ethnography of qualitative evidence, searching seven electronic databases for records that explored personal experiences of walking in individuals living with conditions of diverse aetiology. Conditions included Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hip fracture, heart failure, frailty and sarcopenia. Data were extracted, critically appraised using the NICE quality checklist and synthesised using standardised best practices.

RESULTS

from 2,552 unique records, 117 were eligible. Walking experience was similar across conditions and described by seven themes: (i) becoming aware of the personal walking experience, (ii) the walking experience as a link between individuals' activities and sense of self, (iii) the physical walking experience, (iv) the mental and emotional walking experience, (v) the social walking experience, (vi) the context of the walking experience and (vii) behavioural and attitudinal adaptations resulting from the walking experience. We propose a novel conceptual framework that visually represents the walking experience, informed by the interplay between these themes.

CONCLUSION

a multi-faceted and dynamic experience of walking was common across health conditions. Our conceptual framework of the walking experience provides a novel theoretical structure for patient-centred clinical practice, research and public health.

ERS International Congress, 2022: highlights from the Epidemiology and Environment Assembly

In this article, early career members of the Epidemiology and Environment Assembly of the European Respiratory Society (ERS) summarise a selection of five sessions from the Society's 2022 congress, with a focus on areas of specific interest for the Assembly,i.e.epidemiology and risk factors of respiratory diseases in both children and adults. Topics covered include the characterization of obstructive respiratory diseases, their comorbidities, and their evolution, with novel insight from large cohorts. The importance of early-life factors in respiratory health was also emphasized, including maternal exposures and habits during pregnancy. As smoking behaviours have changed following the introduction of e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products, research remains very active to determine the health consequences and predictors of these novel uses, especially in teenagers. The impact of environmental and occupational exposures on respiratory health remains a major topic of the congress, this year with a focus on emerging risk factors such as landscape fire smoke, non-exhaust particles, and nanoparticles. Regarding workplace exposures, old and novel causes of occupational asthma and rhinitis were discussed.

Changes in Population Health-Related Behaviors During a COVID-19 Surge: A Natural Experiment

Background

The study of impact of lockdowns on individual health-related behaviors has produced divergent results.

Purpose

To identify patterns of change in multiple health-related behaviors analyzed as a whole, and their individual determinants.

Methods

Between March and August 2020, we collected data on smoking, alcohol, physical activity, weight, and sleep in a population-based cohort from Catalonia who had available pre-pandemic data. We performed multiple correspondence and cluster analyses to identify patterns of change in health-related behaviors and built multivariable multinomial logistic regressions to identify determinants of behavioral change.

Results

In 10,032 participants (59% female, mean (SD) age 55 (8) years), 8,606 individuals (86%) modified their behavior during the lockdown. We identified five patterns of behavioral change that were heterogeneous and directed both towards worsening and improvement in diverse combinations. Patterns ranged from “global worsening” (2,063 participants, 21%) characterized by increases in smoking, alcohol consumption, and weight, and decreases in physical activity levels and sleep time, to “improvement” (2,548 participants, 25%) characterized by increases in physical activity levels, decreases in weight and alcohol consumption, and both increases and decreases in sleep time. Being female, of older age, teleworking, having a higher education level, assuming caregiving responsibilities, and being more exposed to pandemic news were associated with changing behavior (all p &lt; .05), but did not discriminate between favorable or unfavorable changes.

Conclusions

Most of the population experienced changes in health-related behavior during lockdowns. Determinants of behavior modification were not explicitly associated with the direction of changes but allowed the identification of older, teleworking, and highly educated women who assumed caregiving responsibilities at home as susceptible population groups more vulnerable to lockdowns.

Walking on common ground: a cross-disciplinary scoping review on the clinical utility of digital mobility outcomes

Physical mobility is essential to health, and patients often rate it as a high-priority clinical outcome. Digital mobility outcomes (DMOs), such as real-world gait speed or step count, show promise as clinical measures in many medical conditions. However, current research is nascent and fragmented by discipline. This scoping review maps existing evidence on the clinical utility of DMOs, identifying commonalities across traditional disciplinary divides. In November 2019, 11 databases were searched for records investigating the validity and responsiveness of 34 DMOs in four diverse medical conditions (Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hip fracture). Searches yielded 19,672 unique records. After screening, 855 records representing 775 studies were included and charted in systematic maps. Studies frequently investigated gait speed (70.4% of studies), step length (30.7%), cadence (21.4%), and daily step count (20.7%). They studied differences between healthy and pathological gait (36.4%), associations between DMOs and clinical measures (48.8%) or outcomes (4.3%), and responsiveness to interventions (26.8%). Gait speed, step length, cadence, step time and step count exhibited consistent evidence of validity and responsiveness in multiple conditions, although the evidence was inconsistent or lacking for other DMOs. If DMOs are to be adopted as mainstream tools, further work is needed to establish their predictive validity, responsiveness, and ecological validity. Cross-disciplinary efforts to align methodology and validate DMOs may facilitate their adoption into clinical practice.

Physical activity and cardiac autonomic dysfunction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

The cardiac autonomic function in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been poorly studied.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to 1) describe the cardiac autonomic function assessed by heart rate recovery (HRR) and chronotropic response (CR) during a 6-min walk test (6MWT) and afterward and 2) estimate the association of physical activity with HRR and CR in COPD patients.

METHODS

This cross-sectional analysis included 320 patients with mild to very severe COPD. Physical activity (steps, time in any/moderate-to-vigorous/vigorous physical activity, intensity and sedentary time) was measured during 1 week by accelerometer. CR and HRR were measured during a 6MWT and 5 min after, respectively, and their association with physical activity parameters was estimated by multivariable linear regression models.

RESULTS

Patients were 82% male and had a mean (SD) age 68 (8) years, post-bronchodilator FEV1 57 (18) % predicted, and walked a mean of 7716 (4139) steps/day. HRR was slow until 5 min after the 6MWT; the mean (SD) was 15 (10), 22 (11), 25 (12), 25 (12) and 27 (12) bpm after 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 min, respectively). The mean CR was 35% (16). After adjusting for relevant confounders, time in vigorous physical activity was significantly associated with a fast decrease in HRR (p=0.044) and an increase in CR (p=0.021). We found no independent association for other physical activity parameters.

CONCLUSION

A cardiac autonomic dysfunction is present in patients with mild to very severe COPD and is inversely related to the practice of vigorous physical activity.