Estimating the delivery costs of COVID-19 vaccination using the COVID-19 Vaccine Introduction and deployment Costing (CVIC) tool: the Lao People's Democratic Republic experience

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 Vaccine Introduction and deployment Costing (CVIC) tool was developed to assist countries to estimate incremental financial costs to roll out COVID-19 vaccines. This article describes the purposes, assumptions and methods used in the CVIC tool and presents the estimated financial costs of delivering COVID-19 vaccines in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR).

METHODS

From March to September 2021, a multidisciplinary team in Lao PDR was involved in the costing exercise of the National Deployment and Vaccination Plan for COVID-19 vaccines to develop potential scenarios and gather inputs using the CVIC tool. Financial costs of introducing COVID-19 vaccines for 3 years from 2021 to 2023 were projected from the government perspective. All costs were collected in 2021 Lao Kip and presented in United States dollar.

RESULTS

From 2021 to 2023, the financial cost required to vaccinate all adults in Lao PDR with primary series of COVID-19 vaccines (1 dose for Ad26.COV2.S (recombinant) vaccine and 2 doses for the other vaccine products) is estimated to be US$6.44 million (excluding vaccine costs) and additionally US$1.44 million and US$1.62 million to include teenagers and children, respectively. These translate to financial costs of US$0.79-0.81 per dose, which decrease to US$0.6 when two boosters are introduced to the population. Capital and operational cold-chain costs contributed 15-34% and 15-24% of the total costs in all scenarios, respectively. 17-26% went to data management, monitoring and evaluation, and oversight, and 13-22% to vaccine delivery.

CONCLUSIONS

With the CVIC tool, costs of five scenarios were estimated with different target population and booster dose use. These facilitated Lao PDR to refine their strategic planning for COVID-19 vaccine rollout and to decide on the level of external resources needed to mobilize and support outreach services. The results may further inform inputs in cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses and potentially be applied and adjusted in similar low- and middle-income settings.

Comparison of population-based measles-rubella immunoglobulin G antibody prevalence between 2014 and 2019 in Lao People's Democratic Republic: Impacts of the national immunization program

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the effectiveness of the Lao People's Democratic Republic's measles-rubella immunization program using the seroprevalence from two cross-sectional surveys.

METHODS

The nationwide surveys occurred in 2014 and 2019 using a multistage cluster sampling, both requiring samples from 2184 individuals from 52 randomly selected villages. Immunoglobulin G titers, measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, were considered positive at ≥120 mIU/ml (measles) and ≥10 IU/ml (rubella). We calculated the vaccination-related reduction in the force of rubella infection and the number of congenital rubella syndrome cases averted in 2019.

RESULTS

We collected 2135 (women: 55.2%, mean age: 23.2 years) and 2001 (52.7%, 23.1 years) samples in 2014 and 2019, respectively. During 2014-2019, immunoglobulin G prevalence increased from 83.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 83.8-84.0) to 98.3% (97.7-98.8) for measles and from 75.4% (75.3-75.5) to 87.8% (86.4-89.2) for rubella. The most plausible reduction in the average force of rubella infection was 100% (95% CI: 28-100) since vaccination started, averting 78 (95% CI: 42-128) congenital rubella syndrome cases in 2019.

CONCLUSION

This is the first population-based study for measles and rubella at two different time points in developing countries. Measles and rubella seroprevalence increased significantly during 2014-2019, greatly exceeding the immunity thresholds for their elimination.

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C virus infections in Lao People's Democratic Republic: The first national population-based cross-sectional survey

Population-based seroprevalence of chronic hepatitis B and C infections has not been examined in Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR). Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of these infections in the general population of Lao PDR and perform subgroup analysis. A nationwide seroprevalence survey was conducted in Lao PDR in June 2019 using the multistage cluster sampling method. Dried blood spot samples were collected onto WhatmanTM 903 filter paper by finger prick. A chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay was used to measure the levels of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and hepatitis C antibody (HCV-Ab). Samples in which the HBsAg level was above 0.05 IU/ml and HCV-Ab was above the signal/cutoff ratio of 1.0 were considered positive based on comparisons with the relative light unit value of a calibration sample. A total of 1,927 samples (male: 47.3%, mean age: 23.0 years) were included in the analysis. The prevalence was estimated to be 4.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7-6.3) for HBsAg and 1.6% (95% CI: 0.5-5.3) for HCV-Ab. Multivariable analysis revealed that those aged 20-24 years (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1-4.6), those aged 25-29 years (AOR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.3-5.6), those from the Northern region (AOR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.2-6.6), and those who were Khmu (AOR: 3.6, 95% CI: 2.0-6.8) or Hmong (AOR: 5.0, 95% CI: 3.3-7.5) were significantly more likely to be positive for HBsAg. Although there were no statistically significant differences in the HCV-Ab prevalence according to each variable, males (2.9%, 95% CI: 0.7-10.7), those aged ≥40 years (6.1%, 95% CI: 2.1-16.8), and those from the Southern region (3.3%, 95% CI: 0.6-15.3) tended to have a higher prevalence. This novel population-based survey found differences in the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus infections in Lao PDR according to sex, age group, region, and ethnicity; however, the results of this study should be confirmed in future studies, and relevant responses tailored for each target also need to be determined to control the transmission of hepatitis B and C infections.

Seizing market shaping opportunities for vaccine cold chain equipment

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, supports immunisation programmes in eligible countries to reach children with lifesaving vaccines. Dramatic improvement in the scale and performance of current cold chain systems is required to extend the reach of immunisation services - especially for children living in remote locations - to advance progress towards full vaccine coverage. Achieving these improvements will require a healthier market for cold chain equipment where the products meet user needs, are sustainably priced, and are available in sufficient quantities to meet demand. Yet evidence suggests that the cold chain market has suffered from several failures including limited demand visibility, fragmented procurement, and insufficient information exchange between manufacturers and buyers on needs and equipment performance. One of Gavi's strategic goals is to shape markets for vaccines and other immunisation products, including cold chain equipment and in 2015, Gavi created a new mechanism - the Cold Chain Equipment (CCE) Optimisation Platform - to strengthen country cold chain systems by offering financial support and incentives for higher performing CCE. The main objective of the CCE Platform is to get more equipment that is efficient, sustainable, and better performing deployed to every health facility where it is required at an affordable price. To achieve these objectives, Gavi is putting in place tested market shaping approaches and tools adapted for the CCE market: the development of market strategies or 'roadmaps'; improvement of product performance through the development of target product profiles (TPPs); strategic engagement with CCE manufacturers and countries to enhance information sharing; and tailoring procurement tactics to the CCE market. These approaches and tools will allow for increased demand and supply of higher-performing, cost-effective and quality products. By strengthening immunisation systems with improved cold chain equipment, Gavi countries can begin to address the underlying problems limiting vaccine availability and improve the coverage and equity of vaccines.

Innovations in cold chain equipment for immunization supply chains

BACKGROUND

Since 2010, numerous new technologies have entered the immunization cold chain equipment market. The World Health Organization (WHO) Immunization Devices Programme-Performance, Quality and Safety (PQS)-has played a key role in bringing these to market. In this article, the authors explore the emergence of new cold chain equipment technologies from 2004 to 2016 and the role of PQS in this evolution.

METHODS

This review focuses on three major vaccine cold chain technology innovations-solar direct-drive refrigerators, long-term passive cold boxes, and equipment with user-independent freeze prevention. For the review, we used online data from WHO PQS, a literature search, and unpublished research reports.

RESULTS

Timelines with key milestones in the emergence of the three focus technologies show delays of between one and three years between earliest field trials and publication of WHO specifications; procurement builds after the WHO prequalification of initial devices.

DISCUSSION

The timelines show the role of PQS as both gatekeeper and enabler for cold chain equipment technologies. The use of target product profiles by PQS has increased its ability to signal preferred attributes and to engage with manufacturers during the product-development stage. Procurement data show how demand for solar direct-drive refrigerators increased over time. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, is employing demand-generation strategies to try to drive procurement of technologies with favorable technical attributes.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance

INTRODUCTION

From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance.

METHODS

The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country.

RESULTS

By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.