When Should I Get My Next COVID Vaccine? Data from the SUrveillance of responses to COVID-19 vaCcines in systEmic immunE mediated inflammatory Diseases (SUCCEED)study

OBJECTIVE

To determine how serologic responses to COVID vaccination/infection in immunemediated inflammatory disease (IMID) are affected by time since last vaccination and other factors.

METHODS

Post-COVID-19 vaccination, data and dried blood spots/sera were collected from adults with rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, systemic lupus, ankylosing spondylitis/spondylarthritis and psoriasis/psoriatic arthritis. First sample was at enrolment and then 2-4 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months after latest vaccine dose. Multivariate generalized estimating equation regressions (including medications, demographics, and vaccination history) evaluated serologic response, based on log-transformed anti-RBD IgG titres; we also measured anti-nucleocapsid IgG.

RESULTS

Positive associations for log-transformed anti-RBD titres were seen with female sex, number of doses, and self-reported COVID infections in 2021-2023. Negative associations were seen with prednisone, anti-TNF agents, and rituximab.Over 2021-2023, most (94%) of anti-nucleocapsid positivity was associated with a self-reported infection in the 3 months prior. From March 2021 to Feb 2022, anti-nucleocapsid positivity was present in 5-15% of samples and was highest in the post-Omicron era, with anti-nucleocapsid positivity trending to 30-35% or higher as of March 2023. Anti-nucleocapsid positivity in IMID remained lower than Canada's general population seroprevalence (>50% in 2022 and >75% in 2023).Time since last vaccination was negatively associated with log-transformed anti-RBD titres, particularly after 210 days.

CONCLUSION

Ours is the first pan-Canadian IMID assessment of how vaccine history and other factors affect serologic COVID-19 vaccine responses. These findings may help individuals personalize vaccination decisions, including consideration of additional vaccination when >6 months has elapsed since last COVID vaccination/infection.

Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Canadian Nationwide Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Canada has a high burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Historical trends of IBD incidence and prevalence were analyzed to forecast the Canadian burden over the next decade.

METHODS

Population-based surveillance cohorts in 8 provinces derived from health administrative data assessed the national incidence (2007-2014) and prevalence (2002-2014) of IBD. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to forecast incidence and prevalence, stratified by age, with 95% prediction intervals (PI), to 2035. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for the forecasted incidence and prevalence.

RESULTS

The national incidence of IBD is estimated to be 29.9 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.3-31.5) in 2023. With a stable AAPC of 0.36% (95% CI -0.05 to 0.72), the incidence of IBD is forecasted to be 31.2 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.1-34.3) in 2035. The incidence in pediatric patients (younger than 18 years) is increasing (AAPC 1.27%; 95% CI 0.82-1.67), but it is stable in adults (AAPC 0.26%; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.82). The prevalence of IBD in Canada was 843 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) in 2023 and is expected to steadily climb (AAPC 2.43%; 95% CI 2.32-2.54) to 1,098 per 100,000 (95% PI 1,068-1,127) by 2035. The highest prevalence is in seniors with IBD (1,174 per 100,000 in 2023; AAPC 2.78%; 95% CI 2.75-2.81).

DISCUSSION

Over the next decade, the Canadian health care systems will contend with the juxtaposition of rising incidence of pediatric IBD and a rising prevalence of overall IBD driven by the aging population.

Hospitalization Rates for Inflammatory Bowel Disease Are Decreasing Over Time: A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Recent advances in the management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) striving for new treatment targets may have decreased rates of hospitalization for flares. We compared all-cause, IBD-related, and non-IBD-related hospitalizations while accounting for the rising prevalence of IBD.

METHODS

Population-based, administrative health care databases identified all individuals living with IBD in Alberta between fiscal year 2002 and 2018. Hospitalization rates (all-cause, IBD-related, and non-IBD-related) were calculated using the prevalent Alberta IBD population. Hospitalizations were stratified by disease type, age, sex, and metropolitan status. Data were age and sex standardized to the 2019 Canadian population. Log-linear models calculated Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) in hospitalization rates with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

From 2002-2003 to 2018-2019, all-cause hospitalization rates decreased from 36.57 to 16.72 per 100 IBD patients (AAPC, -4.18%; 95% CI, -4.69 to -3.66). Inflammatory bowel disease-related hospitalization rate decreased from 26.44 to 9.24 per 100 IBD patients (AAPC, -5.54%; 95% CI, -6.19 to -4.88). Non-IBD-related hospitalization rate decreased from 10.13 to 7.48 per 100 IBD patients (AAPC, -1.82%; 95% CI, -2.14 to -1.49). Those over 80 years old had the greatest all-cause and non-IBD-related hospitalization rates. Temporal trends showing decreasing hospitalization rates were observed across age, sex, IBD type, and metropolitan status.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalization rates are decreasing for all-cause, IBD-related, and non-IBD-related hospitalizations. Over the past 20 years, the care of IBD has transitioned from hospital-based care to ambulatory-centric IBD management.

Adverse Events and Serological Responses After SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Individuals With Inflammatory Bowel Disease

INTRODUCTION

We determined adverse events after 4 doses of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine in those with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), associations between antibodies and injection site reactions (ISR), and risk of IBD flare.

METHODS

Individuals with IBD were interviewed for adverse events to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Multivariable linear regression assessed the association between antibody titers and ISR.

RESULTS

Severe adverse events occurred in 0.03%. ISR were significantly associated with antibody levels after the fourth dose (geometric mean ratio = 2.56; 95% confidence interval 1.18-5.57). No cases of IBD flare occurred.

DISCUSSION

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are safe for those with IBD. ISR after the fourth dose may indicate increased antibodies.

Development of the global inflammatory bowel disease visualization of epidemiology studies in the 21st century (GIVES-21)

BACKGROUND

There is a rapid increase in the incidence of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) in newly industrialized countries, yet epidemiological data is incomplete. We herein report the methodology adopted to study the incidence of IBD in newly industrialized countries and to evaluate the effect of environmental factors including diet on IBD development.

METHODS

Global IBD Visualization of Epidemiology Studies in the 21st Century (GIVES-21) is a population-based cohort of newly diagnosed persons with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to be followed prospectively for 12 months. New cases were ascertained from multiple sources and were entered into a secured online system. Cases were confirmed using standard diagnostic criteria. In addition, endoscopy, pathology and pharmacy records from each local site were searched to ensure completeness of case capture. Validated environmental and dietary questionnaires were used to determine exposure in incident cases prior to diagnosis.

RESULTS

Through November 2022, 106 hospitals from 24 regions (16 Asia; 6 Latin America; 2 Africa) have joined the GIVES-21 Consortium. To date, over 290 incident cases have been reported. All patients have demographic data, clinical disease characteristics, and disease course data including healthcare utilization, medication history and environmental and dietary exposures data collected. We have established a comprehensive platform and infrastructure required to examine disease incidence, risk factors and disease course of IBD in the real-world setting.

CONCLUSIONS

The GIVES-21 consortium offers a unique opportunity to investigate the epidemiology of IBD and explores new clinical research questions on the association between environmental and dietary factors and IBD development in newly industrialized countries.

Variation in Testing for and Incidence of Celiac Autoimmunity in Canada: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The incidence of biopsy-confirmed celiac disease has increased. However, few studies have explored the incidence of celiac autoimmunity based on positive serology results.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study assessed testing of tissue transglutaminase antibodies (tTG-IgA) in Alberta from 2012 to 2020. After excluding prevalent cases, incident celiac autoimmunity was defined as the first positive tTG-IgA result between 2015 and 2020. Testing and incidence rates for celiac autoimmunity were calculated per 1000 and 100,000 person-years, respectively. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated to identify differences by demographic and regional factors. Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) assessed trends over time.

RESULTS

The testing rate of tTG-IgA was 20.2 per 1000 person-years and remained stable from 2012 to 2020 (AAPC, 1.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.5 to 2.9). Testing was higher in female patients (IRR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.65-1.66), those living in metropolitan areas (IRR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.38-1.40), and in areas of lower socioeconomic deprivation (lowest compared to highest IRR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.23-1.25). Incidence of celiac autoimmunity was 33.8 per 100,000 person-years and increased from 2015 to 2020 (AAPC, 6.2%; 95% CI, 3.1-9.5). Among those with tTG-IgA results ≥10 times the upper limit of normal, the incidence was 12.9 per 100,000 person-years. The incidence of celiac autoimmunity was higher in metropolitan settings (IRR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.21-1.35) and in the least socioeconomically deprived areas compared to the highest (IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14-1.32).

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence of celiac autoimmunity is high and increasing, despite stable testing rates. Variation in testing patterns may lead to underreporting the incidence of celiac autoimmunity in nonmetropolitan areas and more socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods.

A170 ADVERSE EVENTS & SEROLOGICAL RESPONSES FOLLOWING SARS-COV-2 VACCINATION IN INDIVIDUALS WITH INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE

Background

The rapid development and distribution of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines has raised concerns surrounding vaccine safety in immunocompromised populations, such as those with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

Purpose

We described adverse events (AEs) following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in those with IBD and determined relationships between AEs to post-vaccination antibody titres.

Method

Individuals with IBD from a prospective cohort in Calgary, Canada (n=670) who received a 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, and/or 4^th dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and/or AstraZeneca) were interviewed via telephone for AEs using the Adverse Events Following Immunization form. Subsequently, we assessed injection site reaction as a specific AE outcome. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the association between anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibody (anti-S) levels within 1–12 weeks of vaccination and injection site reaction following 1st, 2nd, and 3rd dose vaccination. Models were adjusted for age, sex, IBD type, IBD medications, vaccine type, and prior COVID-19 infection. Additionally, we evaluated the risk of flare of IBD within 30 days of vaccination via chart review.

Result(s)

Table 1 describes AEs in individuals with IBD following 1^st dose (n=331), 2^nd dose (n=331), 3^rd dose (n=195), and 4^th dose (n=100) of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. AEs were reported in 83.3% of participants after 1^st dose, 79.1% after 2^nd dose, 77.4% after 3^rd dose, and 67.0% after 4^th dose. Injection site reaction (pain, redness, etc.) was the most common AE (50.8% of AEs), with fatigue and malaise (18.1%), headache and migraine (8.6%), musculoskeletal discomfort (8.2%), and fever and chills (6.5%) also commonly reported. Multivariable logistic regression determined no associations between anti-S concentration and injection site reaction for all doses. Age above 65 years was associated with decreased injection site reaction following 1^st and 3^rd doses, while female sex and mRNA vaccine type were associated with increased injection site reaction following 1^st and 2^nd doses. Prior COVID-19 infection, IBD type, and medication class were not associated with injection site reaction with any dose. Only one participant was diagnosed with a severe AE requiring hospitalization: Immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) following 2^nd dose of a Pfizer vaccination. No cases of IBD flare occurred within 30 days of vaccination.

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Conclusion(s)

AEs following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination are generally mild and become less common with each consecutive dose. Antibody levels following each dose of the vaccine were not associated with injection site reactions. Females, those under 65 years of age, and those administered mRNA vaccines were more likely to experience an injection site reaction. Prior COVID-19 infection, IBD type, and IBD medication class did not predict injection site reactions. Vaccination was not associated with IBD flare within 30 days of vaccination.

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Other

Please indicate your source of funding;

Helmsley

Disclosure of Interest

A. Markovinovic: None Declared, M. Herauf: None Declared, J. Quan: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Windsor: None Declared, N. Sharifi: None Declared, S. Coward: None Declared, L. Caplan: None Declared, J. Gorospe: None Declared, C. Ma Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Pfizer, , Consultant of: AbbVie, Alimentiv, Amgen, Ferring, Pfizer, Takeda, , Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Alimentiv, Amgen, Ferring, Pfizer, Takeda, R. Panaccione Grant / Research support from: AbbVie, Ferring, Janssen, Pfizer, Takeda, Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv, Amgen, Arena, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Oppilan Pharma, Pandion Therapeutics, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Schering-Plough, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda, Theravance, UCB, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Arena, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda, R. Ingram: None Declared, J. Kanji: None Declared, G. Tipples: None Declared, J. Holodinsky: None Declared, C. Berstein Grant / Research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Janssen, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Takeda, D. Mahoney: None Declared, S. Bernatsky: None Declared, E. Benchimol: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer

A193 DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND OCCUPATIONAL FACTORS THAT PREVENTED EXPOSURE TO SARS-COV-2 IN INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE PATIENTS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: A PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is a rapidly evolving public health emergency in which mundane behaviors such as grocery shopping or restaurant dining are considered high-risk for some, such as persons with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) who are often immunodeficient due to medications. Research on the behavioral exposures experienced by populations with IBD during the COVID-19 pandemic are lacking.

Purpose

We aim to better understand how the behaviors of persons with IBD are associated with COVID-19 diagnoses.

Method

We conducted a prospective serosurveillance cohort study in Calgary to assess exposure to SARS-CoV-2 from Nov. 1, 2020 to Aug. 8, 2022 in 485 individuals with IBD. A diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 was defined as a molecular-confirmed PCR test, a self-report home antigen test, or a positive nucleocapsid antibody level. Participants completed a self-report electronic questionnaire on social and occupational risk activities stratified across two time periods: Jan. 2020 to Mar. 2020 (before lockdown) and post-Jun. 2020 (post lockdown). Univariate analyses (χ² and Fischer’s exact if n≤5) were performed on social activities that occurred following the lockdown among those with IBD who were and were not diagnosed with COVID-19. Occupational exposures were compared across essential workers (EW) (i.e., frontline workers at high risk of COVID) and non-EWs.

Result(s)

Overall, 37.5% (n=182) of our cohort was diagnosed with COVID-19. Seniors were less likely to be infected with COVID-19 (22.7%) compared to those under the age of 65 (40.8%) (p=0.002). A greater proportion of females (42.6 %) compared to males (32.5%) were COVID positive (p=0.02). Those with Crohn’s disease (38.3%) were as likely to test positive for COVID-19 as those with ulcerative colitis (36%) (p=0.65). COVID positive patients were less likely to have 4 vaccine doses (28.5%) compared to those who tested negative (71.5%) (p=0.4).

Statistically significant decreases (p<0.001) in engagement post-Jun. 2020 were observed for: bar use (11.6% to 2.1%), visiting a friend (44.5% to 15.2%), having visitors over (38.7% to 12.1%), restaurant dining (38% to 9%), indoor fitness (31.9% to 8.4%), and transit use (11% to 1.3%). There was an increase in regular use of outdoor fitness (31.9% to 67.1%, p<0.003).

Persons with IBD who tested positive for COVID-19 were more likely to regularly dine in a restaurant (16.8% vs. 4.7% for COVID negative, p<0.001), engage in indoor fitness activities (14% vs. 5.1%, p<0.001), and travel outside Calgary (21% vs. 11.2%, p=0.004) post-lockdown.

Post-lockdown, a greater proportion of EW were COVID positive (50.4%) compared to non-EW (38.6%) (p=0.04).

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Conclusion(s)

Over a two-year period, two-thirds of our cohort did not test positive for COVID-19. Those with IBD who avoided COVID tended to be older, male, have 4 doses of vaccine, and reduce their risk of exposure through social and occupational modifications, perhaps in response to public health guidance.

Disclosure of Interest

None Declared

A35 FORECASTING THE INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE: A CANADIAN NATION-WIDE ANALYSIS

Background

Canada is currently in the third epidemiological stage in the evolution of IBD: compounding prevalence. A high incidence of IBD, in conjunction with low mortality, leads to a steadily rising prevalence over time. By understanding historical epidemiological trends, we can forecast incidence and prevalence into the future to inform healthcare systems in Canada of the rising burden of IBD to society.

Purpose

To analyze past epidemiological trends in order to forecast the overall incidence and prevalence of IBD, Crohn’s disease (CD), and ulcerative colitis (UC) and stratified by age (<18, 18-64, 65+).

Method

Canadian population-based administrative data was acquired from: AB, BC, SK, MB, QC, and ON. Data were age and sex standardized to the matching year and provincial data aggregated into a representative sample of the Canadian population for prevalence (2002-2014) and incidence (2007-2014: 5-year washout period). Incidence and prevalence (per 100,000 persons) were calculated, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), using Canadian population estimates from Statistics Canada for IBD, CD, UC (IBD-unclassifiable+UC). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models were created, and rates forecasted from 2014 to 2035 with 95% prediction intervals (PI). Poisson (or negative binomial) for incidence and log binomial regression for prevalence estimated the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), with 95% CIs, of the forecasted data.

Result(s)

The 2014 incidence of IBD in Canada was 28.4 per 100,000 (95%CI: 27.8, 29.0) and forecasted to significantly increase (AAPC: 0.58%; 95%CI: 0.04, 1.04) from 30.0 per 100,000 in 2023 to 32.1 (95%PI: 27.9, 36.3) in 2035. Pediatric onset IBD was 13.9 per 100,000 (95%CI: 13.0, 14.9) in 2014 and is forecasted to significantly increase to 18.0 per 100,000 (95%PI: 15.7, 20.2) in 2035 with an AAPC of 1.23% (95%CI: 0.76, 1.63). Adult and elderly onset incidence rates were forecasted to remain stable. Prevalence of IBD increased between 2002 (389 per 100,000) and 2014 (636 per 100,000) and is forecasted to continue to climb by an AAPC of 2.44% (95%CI: 2.34, 2.53). In 2023, the prevalence of IBD is 825 per 100,000. By 2035 prevalence is forecasted to climb to 1075 per 100,000 (95%PI: 1047, 1103) with 470,000 Canadians living with IBD. Prevalence across all age strata were forecasted to significantly increase. The highest AAPC was seen in the elderly (2.76%; 95%CI: 2.73, 2.79) with a prevalence of 841 per 100,000 (95%CI: 834, 849) in 2014 and forecasted to climb to 1534 per 100,000 (95%PI: 1519, 1550) in 2035.

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Conclusion(s)

Incidence of IBD continues to rise in Canada, driven by pediatric-onset IBD. In 2023, over 320,000 Canadians (0.83%) will be living with IBD. By 2035 prevalence will exceed 1% of the population with approximately 470,000 individuals in Canada with IBD. Future research should establish the environmental determinates of IBD that may influence temporal trends in the incidence of IBD, while healthcare systems adapt to the compounding prevalence of IBD.

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CIHR, Other

Please indicate your source of funding;

The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust

Disclosure of Interest

S. Coward: None Declared, E. Benchimol Consultant of: Hoffman La-Roche Limited and Peabody & Arnold LLP for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease and McKesson Canada and the Dairy Farmers of Ontario for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease., C. Bernstein Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, and Takeda Canada. Has received research grants from Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Pfizer Canada, and Sandoz Canada and contract grants from Janssen, Abbvie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, JAMP Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Sandoz Canada, and Takeda., Speakers bureau of: Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada and Takeda Canada, J. A. Avina-Zubieta: None Declared, A. Bitton: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Jones Consultant of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, E. Kuenzig: None Declared, L. Lu: None Declared, S. Murthy: None Declared, Z. Nugent: None Declared, A. Otley Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie Canada and Janssen Canada, Consultant of: Advisory boards of AbbVie Canada, Janssen Canada and Nestle, R. Panaccione Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Theravance Biopharma, Trellus, Viatris, UCB. Advisory Boards for: AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Organon, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, J.-N. Pena-Sanchez: None Declared, H. Singh Consultant of: Pendopharm, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, Roche Canada, Sandoz Canada, Takeda Canada, and Guardant Health, Inc., L. Targownik Grant / Research support from: Investigator initiated funding from Janssen Canada, Consultant of: [Advisory board] AbbVie Canada, Takeda Canada, Merck Canada, Pfizer Canada, Janssen Canada, Roche Canada, and Sandoz Canada, J. Windsor: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire, Consultant of: Gilead, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda

A210 THE BURDEN OF IBD HOSPITALIZATION IN CANADA: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT AND FUTURE BURDEN IN A NATION-WIDE ANALYSIS

Background

Hospitalizations pose a significant burden on both the individual and the healthcare system. Those with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at increased risk of hospitalization as compared to the general population due to flaring of disease activity and complications related to IBD. The advent of biologics over the past twenty years may have influenced the rates of hospitalization for IBD.

Purpose

To assess current and forecast the overall hospitalization rates of those with IBD stratified by types of hospitalizations (all cause hospitalizations, IBD-related, and IBD-specific).

Method

Population-based administrative data on hospitalization of IBD (2002-2014) were obtained from: AB, BC, MB, and SK. Data were age and sex standardized to the matching year and aggregated into a representative sample of the Canadian population. Hospitalization rates were assessed as follows: 1. All cause hospitalizations: all admissions regardless of indication; 2. IBD-specific: an admission directly resulting from IBD (e.g., IBD-flare); 3. IBD-related: an admission for IBD, or a symptom or comorbidity associated with IBD (e.g. rheumatoid arthritis). Using prevalence estimates from the provinces, hospitalization rates (per 100 persons with IBD) were calculated, with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models were created to estimate number of hospitalizations and corresponding prevalence to forecast hospitalization rates to 2030 with 95% prediction intervals (PI). Poisson (or negative binomial) regression estimated the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), with 95% CIs, of the forecasted data.

Result(s)

In 2002 there were 35.3 per 100 (95%CI: 34.7, 35.9) all cause hospitalizations for IBD patients and this decreased to 24.9 per 100 (24.5, 25.2) in 2014. Similar trends were seen for IBD-specific hospitalizations [16.8 per 100 (95%CI: 16.4, 17.2) in 2002 to 8.7 per 100 (95%CI: 8.5, 9.0) in 2014] and IBD-related (22.6 per 100 (95%CI: 22.1, 23.1) in 2002 to 13.4 per 100 (95%CI: 13.2, 13.7) in 2014). When forecasted out to 2030 all hospitalization types were significantly decreasing—the AAPC for all cause hospitalizations was -2.12% (95%CI: -2.31, -1.93), -3.77% (95%CI: -4.63, -3.08) for IBD-specific, and -3.09% (95%CI: -3.65, -2.62) for IBD-related. By 2030, the rates of hospitalization are forecasted to be 17.0 per 100 (95%PI: 16.2, 17.9), 4.6 per 100 (95%PI: 3.7, 5.4), and 7.9 per 100 (95%PI: 6.9, 8.9) for all cause, IBD-specific, and IBD-related, respectively.

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Conclusion(s)

In Canada, rates of hospitalizations for those with IBD have decreased from 2002 to 2014. The use of anti-TNF therapy in conjunction with the evolution of clinical monitoring, management and guidelines, likely has contributed to dropping hospitalization rates. Forecast models estimate a continued drop in hospitalization rates out to 2030. Importantly, healthcare resource planning should account for the shift from hospital-based to clinic-centric models of IBD care.

Please acknowledge all funding agencies by checking the applicable boxes below

CIHR

Disclosure of Interest

S. Coward: None Declared, E. Benchimol Consultant of: Hoffman La-Roche Limited and Peabody & Arnold LLP for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease and McKesson Canada and the Dairy Farmers of Ontario for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease., C. Bernstein Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, and Takeda Canada. Has received research grants from Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Pfizer Canada, and Sandoz Canada and contract grants from Janssen, Abbvie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, JAMP Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Sandoz Canada, and Takeda., Speakers bureau of: Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada and Takeda Canada, J. A. Avina-Zubieta: None Declared, A. Bitton: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Jones Consultant of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, E. Kuenzig: None Declared, L. Lu: None Declared, S. Murthy: None Declared, Z. Nugent: None Declared, A. Otley Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie Canada and Janssen Canada, Consultant of: Advisory boards of AbbVie Canada, Janssen Canada and Nestle, R. Panaccione Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Theravance Biopharma, Trellus, Viatris, UCB. Advisory Boards for: AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Organon, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, J.-N. Pena-Sanchez: None Declared, H. Singh Consultant of: Pendopharm, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, Roche Canada, Sandoz Canada, Takeda Canada, and Guardant Health, Inc.,, L. Targownik Grant / Research support from: Investigator initiated funding from Janssen Canada, Consultant of: [Advisory board] AbbVie Canada, Takeda Canada, Merck Canada, Pfizer Canada, Janssen Canada, Roche Canada, and Sandoz Canada, J. Windsor: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire, Consultant of: Gilead, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda

A195 DURABILITY OF SEROLOGICAL RESPONSES AFTER SECOND, THIRD AND FOURTH DOSE OF SARS-COV-2 VACCINATION IN INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE: A PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

Background

Adequate serological responses following two-dose regimens and additional doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination have been demonstrated for the vast majority of those with IBD. However, antibody levels following 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination may decrease over time in the IBD population.

Purpose

We assessed the durability of serological responses to 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination over time in a cohort of IBD patients.

Method

Adults with IBD who received at least one dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (n=559) were evaluated for serological response to the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 using the Abbott IgG II Quant assay with a seroconversion threshold of ≥ 50 AU/mL. The geometric mean titer (GMT) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated and stratified by weeks (1–8, 8–16, 16–24, 24+ weeks) after each vaccine dose. We compared stratified GMTs with Mann–Whitney U tests using a significance level of 0.05.

Result(s)

Our cohort (n=559) comprised the following patient characteristics: 82.8% were 18–65 years-old (n = 463), 53.1% were female (n =297), and 71.6% had Crohn’s disease (n =400). IBD medications were classified in the following mutually exclusive groups: No immunosuppressives 10.5% (n = 59), anti-TNF monotherapy 35.8% (n = 200), immunomodulatory monotherapy 2.1% (n =12 ), vedolizumab 11.8% (n =66 ), ustekinumab 20.4% (n =114 ), tofacitinib 1.2% (n =7 ), combination therapy 15.9% (n = 89), and prednisone 2.1% (n =12). For vaccine type, 85.6% and 82.3% had Pfizer for 3^rd and 4^th dose, respectively, while the remainder had Moderna. Seroconversion rates 1–8 weeks after 3^rd and 4^th dose were both 99.9%.

Figure 1 compares GMTs with 95% CI by weeks after each vaccine dose. GMTs are highest 1–8 weeks after 2^nd dose (4053 AU/mL; 95% CI: 3468, 4737 AU/mL; n=337), 3^rd dose (12116 AU/mL; 10413, 14098 AU/mL; n=256), and 4^th dose (14337 AU/mL; 10429, 19710 AU/mL; n=67). Subsequently, antibody levels decay from 1–8 weeks to 8–16 weeks (p<0.001) for 2^nd dose (mean difference: –2224 AU/mL), 3^rd dose (mean difference: –7526 AU/mL), and 4^th dose (mean difference: –9715 AU/mL). Compared to 16–24 weeks after 2^nd dose, antibody levels 24+ weeks after were similar (GMTs: 795 AU/mL vs. 1043 AU/mL, p=0.52). For third dose, antibody levels 8–16 weeks and 16–24 weeks after vaccination were similar (4590 AU/mL vs. 4073 AU/mL, p=0.73) along with 16–24 weeks compared to 24+ weeks after vaccination (4073 AU/mL vs. 5876 AU/mL, p=0.18).

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Conclusion(s)

Within 1–8 weeks after each dose of vaccine, serological responses spikes with each subsequent dose yielding a higher GMT. While antibody levels decay 8–16 weeks after each dose, similar GMT levels beyond 16 weeks may indicate durability of antibody levels over a longer duration of time.

Disclosure of Interest

None Declared

A169 THE DIRECT COSTS OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE IN CANADA: A POPULATION-BASED ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL AND CURRENT COSTS

Background

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a costly disease to manage due to hospitalizations, regular ambulatory monitoring, and expensive pharmaceutical therapies. While hospitalization rates have fallen, the increased use of biologics have escalated the cost of care to the healthcare system.

Purpose

To assess historical direct healthcare costs of the IBD population in Canada.

Method

Population-based administrative costing data were obtained from: Alberta, British Columbia, and Manitoba. Costs were calculated based on administrative data (2009 to 2016) which captured: hospitalizations, physician costs, ambulatory care such as: emergency visits, day surgery, and colonoscopy (AB only), and medication costs of IBD-specific medications, such as: mesalamine, biologics, steroids, and immunomodulators. Costs were converted to 2020 dollars using the consumer price index. Average annual cost per person (ACPP) was calculated for each province. Using province specific IBD prevalence estimates these ACPP were meta-analyzed to obtain the annual weighted costs, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and these costs underwent meta-regression to ascertain the average annual change in cost per year. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was created to estimate the ACPP in 2023 with 95% prediction intervals (PI). Canada-wide total direct care costs of IBD patients, in billions (B), were calculated using the ACPP, Canada-specific IBD prevalence estimates (historical and forecasted), and total Canadian population calculations from Statistics Canada (historical and forecasted).

Result(s)

In 2009 the ACPP was $7000 (95%CI: 5389, 8610), representing $1.18B (95%CI: 0.91B, 1.45B) in direct healthcare costs in Canada for all IBD patients. The ACPP in 2016 was increased to $10,336 (95%CI: 6803, 13869), which equates to $2.37B (95%CI: 1.56B, 3.18B) per year in direct healthcare costs. From 2009 to 2016, the ACPP increased an average of $450 (95%CI: 132, 767) per year. If these historical trends continue to 2023 the ACPP is forecasted to be $13,333 (95%PI: 12827, 13839) per person per year. The largest contributor to these costs is medications—accounting for an estimated 50% of the total costs of IBD patients.

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Conclusion(s)

The direct healthcare cost of IBD has risen steadily from 2009 to 2016 when the healthcare system spent over $10,000 per person with IBD and $2.37B nationwide. The primary driver of costs is medical management. Forecast models estimate that the annual cost may be over $13,000 per person in 2023. However, these estimates do not account for advent and increased uptake of novel biologics and small molecules, nor the downward cost pressure of biosimilars. These costs are those paid directly by the healthcare system and do not account for those born by the individual—it is estimated that the true cost of IBD (direct and indirect) is much higher.

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CIHR

Disclosure of Interest

S. Coward: None Declared, E. Benchimol Consultant of: Hoffman La-Roche Limited and Peabody & Arnold LLP for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease and McKesson Canada and the Dairy Farmers of Ontario for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease., C. Bernstein Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, and Takeda Canada. Has received research grants from Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Pfizer Canada, and Sandoz Canada and contract grants from Janssen, Abbvie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, JAMP Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Sandoz Canada, and Takeda., Speakers bureau of: Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada and Takeda Canada, J. A. Avina-Zubieta: None Declared, A. Bitton: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Jones Consultant of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, E. Kuenzig: None Declared, L. Lu: None Declared, S. Murthy: None Declared, Z. Nugent: None Declared, A. Otley Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie Canada and Janssen Canada, Consultant of: Advisory boards of AbbVie Canada, Janssen Canada and Nestle, R. Panaccione Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Theravance Biopharma, Trellus, Viatris, UCB. Advisory Boards for: AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Organon, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, J.-N. Pena-Sanchez: None Declared, H. Singh Consultant of: Pendopharm, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, Roche Canada, Sandoz Canada, Takeda Canada, and Guardant Health, Inc.,, L. Targownik Grant / Research support from: Investigator initiated funding from Janssen Canada, Consultant of: [Advisory board] AbbVie Canada, Takeda Canada, Merck Canada, Pfizer Canada, Janssen Canada, Roche Canada, and Sandoz Canada, J. Windsor: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire, Consultant of: Gilead, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda