Emerging approaches to multiple chronic condition assessment

Older adults experience a higher prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCCs). Establishing the presence and pattern of MCCs in individuals or populations is important for healthcare delivery, research, and policy. This report describes four emerging approaches and discusses their potential applications for enhancing assessment, treatment, and policy for the aging population. The National Institutes of Health convened a 2-day panel workshop of experts in 2018. Four emerging models were identified by the panel, including classification and regression tree (CART), qualifying comorbidity sets (QCS), the multimorbidity index (MMI), and the application of omics to network medicine. Future research into models of multiple chronic condition assessment may improve understanding of the epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of older persons.

NAMS 2021 Utian Translational Science SymposiumSeptember 2021, Washington, DCCharting the path to health in midlife and beyond: the biology and practice of wellness

ABSTRACT

Charting the Path to Health in Midlife and Beyond: The Biology and Practice of Wellness was a Translational Science Symposium held on Tuesday, September 21, 2021. Foundational psychosocial and behavioral approaches to promote healthy aging and strategies to disseminate this information were discussed. The following synopsis documents the conversation, describes the state of the science, and outlines a path forward for clinical practice. Wellness, in its broadest sense, prioritizes an orientation toward health, and an embrace of behaviors that will promote it. It involves a journey to improve and maintain physical and mental health and overall well-being to fully engage and live one's best life. It is more about recognizing and optimizing what one can do than what one cannot do and emphasizes the individual's agency over changing what they are able to change. Wellness is therefore not a passive state but rather an active goal to be sought continually. When viewed in this fashion, wellness is accessible to all. The conference addressed multiple aspects of wellness and embraced this philosophy throughout.

National Institutes of Health Advancing Multimorbidity Research

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity, the co-occurrence of 2 or more chronic diseases, is more common than having a single chronic disease, especially among persons age 65 years and older. The routine measurement of multimorbidity can facilitate a better understanding of potential causes and interactions and promote more effective treatment and improved outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To present a multimorbidity research framework and identify gaps in the research literature related to multimorbidity.

DESIGN

In preparation for an expert panel workshop convened in September 2018, planning committee members reviewed the literature and developed a guiding framework that informed the selection of topics and speakers.

RESULTS

The framework, grounded in a patient-centered approach, incorporates the concept of concordant and discordant comorbidity, and includes potential causes, interactions, and outcomes. This work informed workshop presentations and discussion related to identifying and selecting the best available multimorbidity instruments and determining future research needs.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity research can be advanced by addressing gaps in study design and target populations, and by increasing attention to universal outcome measurement.

Multimorbidity in Older Adults With Cardiovascular Disease

Multimorbidity occurs in adults of all ages, but the number and complexity of comorbid conditions commonly increase with advancing age such that cardiovascular disease (CVD) in older adults typically occurs in a context of multimorbidity. Current clinical practice and research mainly target single disease-specific care that does not embrace the complexities imposed by concurrent conditions. In this paper, emerging concepts regarding CVD in combination with multimorbidity are reviewed, including recommendations for incorporating multimorbidity into clinical decision making, critical knowledge gaps, and research priorities to optimize care of complex older patients.

Understanding the context of health for persons with multiple chronic conditions: moving from what is the matter to what matters

PURPOSE

An isolated focus on 1 disease at a time is insufficient to generate the scientific evidence needed to improve the health of persons living with more than 1 chronic condition. This article explores how to bring context into research efforts to improve the health of persons living with multiple chronic conditions (MCC).

METHODS

Forty-five experts, including persons with MCC, family and friend caregivers, researchers, policy makers, funders, and clinicians met to critically consider 4 aspects of incorporating context into research on MCC: key contextual factors, needed research, essential research methods for understanding important contextual factors, and necessary partnerships for catalyzing collaborative action in conducting and applying research.

RESULTS

Key contextual factors involve complementary perspectives across multiple levels: public policy, community, health care systems, family, and person, as well as the cellular and molecular levels where most research currently is focused. Needed research involves moving from a disease focus toward a person-driven, goal-directed research agenda. Relevant research methods are participatory, flexible, multilevel, quantitative and qualitative, conducive to longitudinal dynamic measurement from diverse data sources, sufficiently detailed to consider what works for whom in which situation, and generative of ongoing communities of learning, living and practice. Important partnerships for collaborative action include cooperation among members of the research enterprise, health care providers, community-based support, persons with MCC and their family and friend caregivers, policy makers, and payers, including government, public health, philanthropic organizations, and the business community.

CONCLUSION

Consistent attention to contextual factors is needed to enhance health research for persons with MCC. Rigorous, integrated, participatory, multimethod approaches to generate new knowledge and diverse partnerships can be used to increase the relevance of research to make health care more sustainable, safe, equitable and effective, to reduce suffering, and to improve quality of life.

Health-related quality of life and functional status quality indicators for older persons with multiple chronic conditions

OBJECTIVES

To explore central challenges with translating self-reported measurement tools for functional status and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) into ambulatory quality indicators for older people with multiple chronic conditions (MCCs).

DESIGN

Review.

SETTING

Sources including the National Quality Measures Clearinghouse and National Quality Forum were reviewed for existing ambulatory quality indicators relevant to functional status, HRQOL, and people with MCCs.

PARTICIPANTS

Seven informants with expertise in indicators using functional status and HRQOL.

MEASUREMENTS

Informant interviews were conducted to explore knowledge about these types of indicators, particularly usability and feasibility.

RESULTS

Nine important existing indicators were identified in the review. For process, identified indicators addressed whether providers assessed functional status; outcome indicators addressed quality of life. In interviews, informants agreed that indicators using self-reported data were important in this population. Challenges identified included concerns about usability due to inability to discriminate quality of care adequately between organizations and feasibility concerns regarding high data collection burden, with a correspondingly low response rate. Validity was also a concern because evidence is mixed that healthcare interventions can improve HRQOL or functional status for this population. As a possible first step, a structural standard could be systematic collection of these measures in a specific setting.

CONCLUSION

Although functional status and HRQOL are important outcomes for older people with MCCs, few relevant ambulatory quality indicators exist, and there are concerns with usability, feasibility, and validity. Further research is needed on how best to incorporate these outcomes into quality indicators for people with MCCs.

Multimorbidity in older adults

Multimorbidity, the coexistence of 2 or more chronic conditions, has become prevalent among older adults as mortality rates have declined and the population has aged. We examined population-based administrative claims data indicating specific health service delivery to nearly 31 million Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries for 15 prevalent chronic conditions. A total of 67% had multimorbidity, which increased with age, from 50% for persons under age 65 years to 62% for those aged 65-74 years and 81.5% for those aged ≥85 years. A systematic review identified 16 other prevalence studies conducted in community samples that included older adults, with median prevalence of 63% and a mode of 67%. Prevalence differences between studies are probably due to methodological biases; no studies were comparable. Key methodological issues arise from elements of the case definition, including type and number of chronic conditions included, ascertainment methods, and source population. Standardized methods for measuring multimorbidity are needed to enable public health surveillance and prevention. Multimorbidity is associated with elevated risk of death, disability, poor functional status, poor quality of life, and adverse drug events. Additional research is needed to develop an understanding of causal pathways and to further develop and test potential clinical and population interventions targeting multimorbidity.

Preventing tomorrow's sudden cardiac death today: dissemination of effective therapies for sudden cardiac death prevention

Because the burden of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is substantial, it is important to use all guideline-driven therapies to prevent SCD. Among those therapies is the implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). When indicated, ICD use is beneficial and cost-effective. Unfortunately, studies suggest that most patients who have indications for this therapy for primary or secondary prevention of SCD are not receiving it. To explore potential reasons for this underuse and to propose potential facilitators for ICD dissemination, the Duke Center for the Prevention of SCD at the Duke Clinical Research Institute (Durham, NC) organized a think tank meeting of experts on this issue. The meeting took place on December 12 and 13, 2007, and it included representatives of clinical cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology, general internal medicine, economics, health policy, the US Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the Agency for Health care Research and Quality, and the device and pharmaceutical industry. Although the meeting was funded by industry participants, this article summarizing the presentations and discussions that occurred at the meeting presents the expert opinion of the authors.

Measuring survival rates from sudden cardiac arrest: the elusive definition

BACKGROUND

Measuring survival from sudden out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OOH-CA) is often used as a benchmark of the quality of a community's emergency medical service (EMS) system. The definition of OOH-CA survival rates depends both upon the numerator (surviving cases) and the denominator (all cases).

PURPOSE

The purpose of the public access defibrillation (PAD) trial was to measure the impact on survival of adding an automated external defibrillator (AED) to a volunteer response system trained in CPR. This paper reports the definition of OOH-CA developed by the PAD trial investigators, and it evaluates alternative statistical methods used to assess differences in reported "survival."

METHODS

Case surveillance was limited to the prospectively determined geographic boundaries of the participating trial units. The numerator in calculating a survival rate should include only those patients who survived an event but who otherwise would have died except for the application of some facet of emergency medical care-in this trial a defibrillatory shock. Among denominators considered were: total population of the study unit, all deaths within the study unit, and documented ventricular fibrillation cardiac arrests. The PAD classification focused upon cases that might have benefited from the early use of an AED, in addition to the likely benefit from early recognition of OOH-CA, early access of EMS, and early cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Results of this classification system were used to evaluate the impact of the PAD definition on the distribution of cardiac arrest case types between CPR only and CPR + AED units.

RESULTS

Potential OOH-CA episodes were classified into one of four groups: definite, probable, uncertain, or not an OOH-CA. About half of cardiac arrests in the PAD units were judged to be definite OOH-CA events and therefore potentially treatable with an AED. However, events that occurred in CPR-only units were less likely to be classified as definite or probable OOH-CA events than those in CPR + AED units (43% versus 55%, odds ratio 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.57-1.07). The study retained sufficient power to permit a statistical analysis of the alternative hypothesis that the CPR + AED method results in twice as many survivors as a CPR-only approach. The result is critically dependent on the denominator used for calculating survival rates; but the analysis does not require a denominator as the numerators will have identical Poisson distributions (counts for rare events) under the null hypothesis since randomization distributes the risk of cardiac arrest evenly between the two arms.

CONCLUSION

Reported OOH-CA rates and survival rates vary widely, depending upon the definitions applied to events. Rigorous assessment of treatments applied to improve survival can be obscured by inappropriate definitions. Large-scale randomized interventions designed to improve survival from OOH-CA can be evaluated based upon the absolute numbers of patients surviving, rather than a change in the proportion surviving.

Pharmacoepidemiologic implications of erroneous varicella vaccinations in pregnancy through confusion with Varicella zoster immune globulin

A series of case reports to the varicella vaccine Pregnancy Registry described inadvertent administrations during pregnancy of this live virus product instead of the intended Varicella zoster immune globulin. Cases continued to accrue despite an early publication about the pattern. The persistent problem warrants specific educational efforts to prevent further repetitions. It also has more general implications for medical product safety surveillance. First, this problem's original detection depended on the Pregnancy Registry's open-ended collection of information about pregnancy exposures. It could have escaped recognition through surveillance limited to pre specified potential risks. This need for unrestricted reporting and human vigilance to sift through case stories has particular relevance for efforts to re-think methods to monitor gestational drug exposures. In addition, the problem's persistence despite initial publicity suggests that diligent surveillance may require continued follow-up of identified safety issues. Periodic reassessments of selected preventable problems might strengthen efforts to minimize product risks.

Development of case definitions for acute encephalopathy, encephalitis, and multiple sclerosis reports to the vaccine: Adverse Event Reporting System

The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), administered by the FDA and CDC, is the U.S. system for surveillance of vaccine adverse events (AE). Acute encephalopathy age <18 months (EO < 18), age > or =18 months (EO > or = 18), encephalitis (EI), and multiple sclerosis (MS) after vaccination have been reported to VAERS, but reports often contain insufficient information to validate diagnoses. Standardized case definitions would enhance the utility of VAERS reports for AE surveillance. We developed practical case definitions for classification of VAERS reports, and three neurologists independently applied the definitions to reports submitted in 1993. Inter-observer agreement was assessed, and non-concordant classifications were reviewed in a follow-up conference call. Reports of EO < 18 (n = 8), EO > or = 18 (n = 20), EI (n = 15), and MS (n = 16) were classified as "definite" in 7% to 30% of the cases, while 26% to 51% of reports were thought to have insufficient information to make a classification. Agreement among reviewers was good to excellent, (kappa: 0.65 to 0.85) except for EO < 18 m for which it was marginal (kappa: 0.37). It is possible to develop reproducible case definitions for acute encephalopathy, encephalitis, and multiple sclerosis using a standardized approach. Application of standardized case definitions to VAERS reports documents the limited information in many reports, specifies data for supplemental collection, and indicates that VAERS reports should be cautiously interpreted. Development and application of case definitions for other adverse events reported after vaccination should enhance the value of vaccine safety databases. Published by Elsevier Science Inc.

Pediatric deaths reported after vaccination: the utility of information obtained from parents

BACKGROUND

The federally administered Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is a passive reporting system that receives domestic and foreign reports of adverse events that occur following immunization. This investigation explored whether routinely interviewing parents for follow-up of VAERS pediatric deaths would provide additional information important to vaccine safety.

METHODS

The study was designed to follow up 100 consecutive pediatric deaths reported to VAERS by interviewing a parent and a healthcare provider (HCP) for each case. Several strategies contributed to successful follow-up. A standardized questionnaire was utilized to interview HCPs and parents. Overall and specific group frequencies (HCPs and parents) were calculated for each variable. McNemar's statistical tests of exact inference were calculated to assess whether there were statistically significant differences between HCP and parent knowledge by case for various variables.

RESULTS

The median age of the cases was 4 months. Approximately half of the deaths were attributed to sudden infant death syndrome. In many instances, the information was equivalent in quality. For certain variables, such as knowledge of the child's position when found in distress, more parents than HCPs indicated that they knew the answer.

CONCLUSIONS

Conducting parental and HCP follow-up for pediatric deaths reported to VAERS was resource intensive. In some instances, parents were more likely than HCPs to provide information regarding some important variables about the nature of the death. None of the additional information obtained from parents, however, provided a signal or confirmation of a causal link between the vaccine and death.

The epidemiology of fatalities reported to the vaccine adverse event reporting system 1990-1997

PURPOSE

To examine the fatalities reported to the federally administered Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a passive surveillance system, in its first 7 years.

METHODS

The working data set included variables such as demographic information, dates of vaccination, adverse event onset and death, vaccines administered, and vaccination facility data. Frequencies for these data and state reporting rates were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 1266 fatalities were reported to VAERS during July 1990 through June 1997. The number of death reports peaked in 1992-1993 and then declined. The overall median age of cases was 0.4 years, with a range of 1 day to 104 years. Nearly half of the deaths were attributed to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).

CONCLUSIONS

The trend of decreasing numbers of deaths reported to VAERS since 1992-1993 follows that observed for SIDS overall for the US general population following implementation of the 'Back to Sleep' program. These data may support findings of past controlled studies showing that the association between infant vaccination and SIDS is coincidental and not causal. VAERS reports of death after vaccination may be stimulated by the temporal association, rather than by any causal relationship.

Proactive safety surveillance

Growth in health information systems presents opportunities to enhance postmarketing safety surveillance of medical products. Spontaneous suspected side effect reports provide the foundation, but we need to 'proactively' improve their quality and our strategies to seek signals. In our more familiar 'reactive' mode, we examine hypotheses from inquiries or publicity. Such responsive evaluations remain essential but may miss latent information on unsuspected risks. Efficient techniques to disclose hidden clusters and associations may emerge through adaptation of approaches from industrial quality control and other disciplines. Data-driven techniques like exploratory analysis, control charts, and time series modeling may help in sifting through accumulated data and in screening consecutive submissions to discern hints of new product hazards or of more specific understanding about previously identified potential side effects. We also need to cultivate non-spontaneous data for hypothesis generation as well as testing, the systematic epidemiologic evaluation of questions and concerns. This hypothesis testing function will assume greater importance if proactive safety surveillance methods yield larger numbers of putatively positive findings. Whether from spontaneous reports or other sources, signals that could have arisen by chance alone usually represent only clues to potential hazards until or unless they can be verified through independent studies.

Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis after vaccination: reports to the vaccine adverse event reporting system

We conducted a telephone survey of reports of Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. We identified six cases of SJS or TEN after vaccination without other obvious triggers, suggesting that SJS and TEN might very rarely be caused by vaccination. Confirmation of this hypothesis will likely require controlled studies.

Infant immunization with acellular pertussis vaccines in the United States: assessment of the first two years' data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the safety of infant immunization with acellular pertussis vaccines in the United States.

BACKGROUND

The US Food and Drug Administration approved the first acellular pertussis vaccine for use in infants in the United States on July 31, 1996.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Adverse events in the United States after infant immunization with pertussis-containing vaccines, representing temporal (but not necessarily causal) associations between vaccinations and adverse events.

DATA SOURCE

Reports to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a passive national surveillance system.

DESIGN

Reports concerning infant immunization against pertussis between January 1, 1995 (when whole-cell vaccine was in exclusive use) and June 30, 1998 (when acellular vaccine was in predominant use) were analyzed, if the reports were entered into the VAERS database by November 30, 1998.

RESULTS

During the study, there were 285 reports involving death, 971 nonfatal serious reports, and 4514 less serious reports after immunization with any pertussis-containing vaccine. For 1995 there were 2071 reports; in 1996 there were 1894 reports; in 1997 there were 1314 reports, and in the first half of 1998 there were 491 reports. Diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP) was cited in 1939 reports, diphtheria-tetanus-whole-cell pertussis-Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine (DTPH) in 2918 reports, and diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccine (DTaP) in 913 reports. The annual number of deaths during the study was 85 in 1995, 82 in 1996, 77 in 1997, and 41 in the first half of 1998. The annual number of reported events categorized as nonfatal serious (defined as events involving initial hospitalization, prolongation of hospitalization, life-threatening illness, or permanent disability) to VAERS for all pertussis-containing vaccines declined: 334 in 1995, 311 in 1996, 233 in 1997, and 93 in the first half of 1998. Similarly, the annual number of less serious reports to VAERS for pertussis-containing vaccines declined: 1652 in 1995, 1501 in 1996, 1004 in 1997, and 357 in the first half of 1998. A comparison of the adverse event profiles (proportional distributions) for DTaP, DTP, and DTPH, as well as an analysis of specific adverse events considered in a 1991 Institute of Medicine report on the safety of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine, did not identify any new, clear safety concerns.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reflect the administration of millions of doses of acellular pertussis vaccine and are reassuring with regard to the safety of marketed acellular pertussis vaccines. VAERS data, although subject to the limitations of passive surveillance, support the prelicensure data with regard to the safety of the US-licensed acellular pertussis vaccines that we evaluated.

Postlicensure safety surveillance for varicella vaccine

CONTEXT

Since its licensure in 1995, the extensive use of varicella vaccine and close surveillance of the associated anecdotal reports of suspected adverse effects provide the opportunity to detect potential risks not observed before licensure because of the relatively small sample size and other limitations of clinical trials.

OBJECTIVES

To detect potential hazards, including rare events, associated with varicella vaccine, and to assess case reports for clinical and epidemiological implications.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Postlicensure case-series study of suspected vaccine adverse events reported to the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) from March 17, 1995, through July 25, 1998.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers of reported adverse events, proportions, and reporting rates (reports per 100,000 doses distributed).

RESULTS

VAERS received 6574 case reports of adverse events in recipients of varicella vaccine, a rate of 67.5 reports per 100,000 doses sold. Approximately 4% of reports described serious adverse events, including 14 deaths. The most frequently reported adverse events were rashes, possible vaccine failures, and injection site reactions. Misinterpretation of varicella serology after vaccination appeared to account for 17% of reports of possible vaccine failures. Among 251 patients with herpes zoster, 14 had the vaccine strain of varicella zoster virus (VZV), while 12 had the wild-type virus. None of 30 anaphylaxis cases was fatal. An immunodeficient patient with pneumonia had the vaccine strain of VZV in a lung biopsy. Pregnant women occasionally received varicella vaccine through confusion with varicella zoster immunoglobulin. Although the role of varicella vaccine remained unproven in most serious adverse event reports, there were a few positive rechallenge reports and consistency of many cases with syndromes recognized as complications of natural varicella.

CONCLUSION

Most of the reported adverse events associated with varicella vaccine are minor, and serious risks appear to be rare. We could not confirm a vaccine etiology for most of the reported serious events; several will require further study to clarify whether varicella vaccine plays a role. Education is needed to ensure appropriate use of varicella serologic assays and to eliminate confusion between varicella vaccine and varicella zoster immunoglobulin. JAMA. 2000;284:1271-1279

Neonatal deaths after hepatitis B vaccine: the vaccine adverse event reporting system, 1991-1998

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate reports of neonatal deaths (aged 0-28 days) after hepatitis B (HepB) immunization reported to the national Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).

DESIGN

Case series; review of autopsy reports.

SETTING

Voluntary reports submitted to VAERS, a passive surveillance system, from the US population.

PATIENTS

All US neonates (0-28 days of age) whose deaths after HepB vaccination given alone were reported to VAERS, occurring from January 1, 1991, through October 5, 1998.

INTERVENTION

None (observational database).

RESULTS

Of 1771 neonatal reports, there were 18 deaths in 8 boys and 9 girls (1 patient unclassified). The mean age at vaccination for these 18 cases was 12 days (range, 1-27 days); median time from vaccination to onset of symptoms was 2 days (range, 0-20 days); and median time from symptoms to death was 0 days (range, 0-15 days). The mean birth weight of the neonates (n = 15) was 3034 g (range, 1828-4678 g). The causes of death for the 17 autopsied cases were sudden infant death syndrome for 12, infection for 3, and 1 case each of intracerebral hemorrhage, accidental suffocation, and congenital heart disease.

CONCLUSION

Few neonatal deaths following HepB vaccination have been reported, despite the use of at least 86 million doses of pediatric vaccine given in the United States since 1991. While the limitations of passive surveillance systems do not permit definitive inference, these data suggest that HepB immunization is not causing a clear increase in neonatal deaths.

An overview of the vaccine adverse event reporting system (VAERS) as a surveillance system. VAERS Working Group

We evaluated the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), the spontaneous reporting system for vaccine-associated adverse events in the United States, as a public health surveillance system, using evaluation guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We found that VAERS is simple for reporters to use, flexible by design and its data are available in a timely fashion. The predictive value positive for one severe event is known to be high, but for most events is unknown. The acceptability, sensitivity and representativeness of VAERS are unknown. The study of vaccine safety is complicated by underreporting, erroneous reporting, frequent multiple exposures and multiple outcomes.

The renal effects of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in older people: findings from the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether older people who use nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents (NSAIDs) have increased levels of blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine, and BUN:serum creatinine ratio.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional, secondary data analysis.

SETTING

Older people living in the communities of East Boston, MA, New Haven, CT, and Washington and Iowa Counties, Iowa.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 4099 people aged 70 years or older who were participants in the National Institute on Aging's Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly project, had survived to the 6-year follow-up interview and had consented to the blood drawing.

MEASUREMENTS

We assessed use of the NSAIDs at the 3- and 6-year interviews through a drug inventory and visual review of medication containers. Markers of renal function assessed through analysis of blood samples drawn at the time of the interview included BUN and creatinine.

RESULTS

Fifteen percent of the cohort reported use of NSAIDs during the 2 weeks preceding the 6-year interview. Controlling for age, sex, and a range of potential confounding variables, NSAID users had significant prevalence odds ratios of 1.9 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.5-2.3) for being in the highest quartile of BUN (>23), 1.3 (CI 1.1-1.7) for the highest quartile of serum creatinine (> or =1.4), and 1.7 (CI 1.4-2.1) for the highest quartile of the BUN:creatinine ratio (> or = 19.4). Chronic NSAID users (those who reported NSAID use at both the 3-year and 6-year interviews) accounted for the increased risk of high serum creatinine levels.

CONCLUSION

Community-dwelling older people who use NSAIDs tend to have higher levels of common laboratory markers of renal dysfunction. This hypothesis requires further testing in prospective cohort studies designed a priori to evaluate these issues.

Predictors and correlates of prevention research careers: a national study of residency graduates

BACKGROUND

Factors associated with research productivity among residency graduates are not well understood. The objectives of this study are to describe research productivity among preventive medicine residency (PMR) graduates and to identify factors that are correlated with high levels of productivity.

METHODS

A detailed survey was mailed to all (n = 1,070) graduates from U.S. PMRs between 1979 and 1989. Main outcome measures for this analysis were (1) 25% of the workweek or more research time and (2) 20 or more publications since training completion.

RESULTS

A total of 797 completed surveys were received for a response rate of 75%. Among respondents, 33% devoted at least 25% of their time to research and 13% had 20 or more publications. Independent positive predictors (P < 0.05) based on education and training of high research productivity as measured by both outcomes included research self-motivation, training at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and clinical board certification. Concurrent correlates of current high research productivity by both outcomes included employment by the federal government or academia and academic appointment.

CONCLUSIONS

Factors associated with high research productivity could be utilized to improve the resident selection process and promote research careers. This could enhance research programs and education and promote the overall prevention research agenda.

Report of a US public health service workshop on hypotonic-hyporesponsive episode (HHE) after pertussis immunization

Hypotonic-hyporesponsive episode (HHE) is a term used to describe a somewhat heterogenous group of clinical disorders that have been reported primarily in association with whole-cell pertussis vaccination. A 1991 review by the Institute of Medicine determined that the evidence available was indeed consistent with a causal relation between whole-cell pertussis-diphtheria-tetanus immunization and HHE, but that the evidence was insufficient to indicate a causal relationship between HHE and the subsequent development of permanent neurologic damage. More recent data from clinical trials conducted in Europe suggest that HHE also occurs after vaccination with acellular pertussis vaccines. The US Food and Drug Administration, in collaboration with the US Public Health Service, sponsored a workshop on HHE in Rockville, Maryland, on June 19, 1997. The primary goals of the workshop were to develop a case definition of HHE and to evaluate the general design and feasibility of possible studies of HHE using the federal Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a national passive surveillance system. The goals of such studies would be to understand better the acute HHE event and to evaluate the possibility of long-term sequelae. Case Definition. There has been no generally accepted definition of HHE, and a standard definition would be useful for vaccine safety work and would potentially facilitate interstudy comparisons of the growing number of licensed vaccines containing acellular pertussis components. The workshop defined HHE as an event of sudden onset occurring within 48 hours of immunization, with duration of the episode ranging from 1 minute to 48 hours, in children younger than 10 years of age. All of the following must be present: 1) limpness or hypotonia, 2) reduced responsiveness or hyporesponsiveness, and 3) pallor or cyanosis or failure to observe or to recall skin coloration. HHE is not considered to have occurred if there is a known cause for these signs (eg, postictal), if urticaria is present during the event, if normal skin coloration is observed throughout the episode, or if the child is simply sleeping. This inclusive (sensitive) case definition will allow investigators, through the technique of stratification according to certain characteristics (eg, time from vaccination to onset of HHE), to attempt to hone the definition and make it more specific. Refinement of the definition of HHE has been hindered by the lack of information on its pathophysiology and by the lack of pathognomonic signs, symptoms, and diagnostic tests. Another hindrance is that by the time the child presents for medical evaluation, the signs of HHE often have normalized. Moreover, different mechanisms may be involved in different individuals whose events meet this workshop's HHE definition. Further Study of HHE. Probably the most important question about HHE is whether it has any permanent sequelae. The workshop assessed the possible contribution VAERS-based studies could make to answering this question and found substantial methodologic problems; however, ongoing studies in Sweden and The Netherlands have the potential to provide useful information on this question. The most useful contribution of VAERS data would be in a descriptive study of HHE, with a possible case-control study of factors that may affect the risk of HHE after vaccination, rather than a study of possible permanent sequelae. The workshop participants felt that a detailed descriptive study of approximately 100 HHE events reported during a 1- to 2-year period could provide a more in-depth description of HHE cases in greater numbers than has been published previously, but the study would not address the issue of long-term sequelae of HHE. Better descriptive data may lead to new hypotheses concerning risk factors, etiology, and pathophysiology of HHE that might be evaluated further by studying subsequent cases and controls from VAERS or from other sources, depending on the hypoth

Hair loss after routine immunizations

CONTEXT

Alopecia is a recognized adverse effect of numerous medications, but vaccines are not normally considered a cause for unexpected loss of hair.

OBJECTIVE

To describe case reports of hair loss after routine vaccines and to assess the hypothesis that vaccinations might induce hair loss.

DESIGN

Case series with telephone follow-up.

METHODS

Review of spontaneous reports to the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Loss of hair following immunization.

RESULTS

A total of 60 evaluable reports submitted since 1984 and coded for "alopecia" after immunizations included 16 with positive rechallenge (hair loss after vaccination on more than 1 occasion), 4 of which were definite and 12 possible or probable. Of the 60 cases, 46 had received hepatitis B vaccines. Both of the currently available recombinant products, as well as the former plasma-derived product, were represented. Females predominated in all age groups. The majority of patients recovered, but clinical features, such as intervals from vaccination until onset and the extent and reversibility of hair loss, varied widely. Nine patients reported previous medication allergy.

CONCLUSION

There may be an association, probably very rare, between vaccinations and hair loss. More than 1 pathophysiologic mechanism may be responsible. Since apparently nonrandom distributions by vaccine, age, and sex could reflect biased case ascertainment, further research will be needed in defined populations with consistent case detection.

Preventive medicine physician satisfaction and its relation to practice characteristics

BACKGROUND

Physicians specializing in general preventive medicine and public health manage programs, conduct research, and care for patients. This study examines their satisfaction overall and in five dimensions: contribution to people's lives, respect from physicians in clinical practice, research opportunities, income, and time to pursue outside interests.

METHODS

A survey of 1979-1989 graduates of preventive medicine residencies rated satisfaction on a five-point scale. Linear models were used to regress physician satisfaction against employer, hours worked, practice content, and other covariates.

RESULTS

Respondents' (n = 778) overall job satisfaction was high, with 44% very satisfied, 44% satisfied, 7% neutral, and 6% dissatisfied. Federal government physicians had the highest satisfaction overall and for research opportunities and time for outside interests. Independent, statistically significant (p < .001) associations were found between higher satisfaction with research opportunities among academic and federal government employers, among Caucasians, and those with substantial epidemiologic practice; and lower satisfaction with time to pursue outside interests, more hours worked, and among women.

CONCLUSIONS

Physician satisfaction could be understood in relation to a number of practice characteristics including its content, hours worked, income, and employer. The results suggest ways to improve physician satisfaction, including balancing competing demands of practice and focusing the physicians' responsibilities.

Clarifying the direct relation between total cholesterol levels and death from coronary heart disease in older persons

BACKGROUND

The importance of total cholesterol level as a risk factor for coronary heart disease in older adults is controversial.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether findings showing that total cholesterol level is not an important risk factor for coronary heart disease in older adults are the result of inadequate adjustment for co-occurring diseases and frailty.

DESIGN

Multicenter, longitudinal study with 5-year follow-up for death.

PARTICIPANTS

4066 men and women from East Boston, Massachusetts; Iowa and Washington counties, Iowa; and New Haven, Connecticut.

MEASUREMENTS

In 1988, participants were interviewed about their health status and had blood samples taken. Mortality follow-up was through 1992.

RESULTS

In analyses that included all fatal coronary heart disease events (252 deaths) and did not adjust for risk factors for coronary heart disease and measures of frailty, persons with the lowest total cholesterol levels (< or = 4.15 mmol/L [< or = 160 mg/dL]) had the highest rate of death from coronary heart disease, whereas those with elevated total cholesterol levels (> or = 6.20 mmol/L [> or = 240 mg/dL]) seemed to have a lower risk for death from coronary heart disease (P for trend = 0.04). After adjustment for established risk factors for coronary heart disease and markers of poor health (including chronic conditions, low serum iron and albumin levels) and exclusion of 44 deaths from coronary heart disease that occurred within the first year, elevated total cholesterol levels predicted increased risk for death from coronary heart disease, and the risk for death from coronary heart disease decreased as cholesterol levels decreased (P for trend = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated total cholesterol level is a risk factor for death from coronary heart disease in older adults, and the apparent adverse effects associated with low cholesterol levels are secondary to comorbidity and frailty. This suggests that excluding older persons from cholesterol screening is inappropriate, but interpretation of screening results in older persons requires clinical judgment. Results from controlled clinical trials are needed to clarify this issue.

Serum iron level, coronary artery disease, and all-cause mortality in older men and women

The association between iron levels and coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality is controversial. Whereas most data show no association, some have raised the possibility of a causal role, while others have suggested a protective effect of iron on CAD. To address these possibilities, we examined the association between serum iron and CAD, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality in a large cohort of 3,936 persons aged > or =71 years who completed an interview, had a serum iron determination, and survived at least 1 year after baseline. The median follow-up time was 4.4 years. Serum iron levels were categorized according to sex-specific quartiles. Relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated from proportional-hazards regression models adjusted for age, race, education, creatinine, serum albumin, serum lipids, use of iron supplementation, smoking, use of alcohol, blood pressure, body mass index, and presence of chronic conditions. There was a gradual decrease in the RRs of CAD, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality with increasing serum iron levels (all tests for trend, p <0.05). Men in the highest iron quartile were one fifth as likely to die of CAD as men in the lowest iron quartile (RR 0.22; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.48), and women in the highest quartile had half the risk of women in the lowest quartile (RR 0.48; 95% CI 0.27 to 0.87). When compared with the lowest quartile, risk of all-cause mortality was 38% lower in men in the highest iron quartile (RR 0.62; 95% CI 0.46 to 0.85) and 28% lower in women in the highest quartile (RR 0.72; 95% CI 0.53 to 0.96). Results of similar strength and magnitude were observed for cardiovascular disease mortality and in analyses that excluded the first 3 years of follow-up. In this large cohort of persons aged > or =71 years, there was consistent evidence of increasing risk of mortality at lower serum iron levels. In fact, lower serum iron levels were associated with an increased risk of CAD, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. The results are compatible with the possibility that in an older population, there is an inverse association between serum iron levels and risk of mortality.

Effect of age and severity of disability on short-term variation in walking speed: the Women's Health and Aging Study

Standardized objective measures of human performance have been introduced in clinical and epidemiologic studies of older populations. Reliability of these measures has usually been estimated by comparing two measures obtained in the same person. However, no information is available on variability of multiple measures collected serially over short time intervals. This study uses data from the Weekly Disability Study, a component of the Women's Health and Aging Study, to describe fluctuations in physical performance over multiple, consecutive time intervals. Walking speed was measured weekly over a 6-month period in 99 older women affected by mild to severe disability. Overall, 2120 observations were explored using techniques developed for the analysis of repeated measures. Results showed that the correlations between observations in the same person were inversely related to their separation in time. The decay in the autocorrelation function was steeper in the least disabled. However, even with 20-week separations in assessments, correlations remained above 0.6 in all age and severity of disability subgroups. Changes over time in performance differed somewhat between disability subgroups, but the relative performance across subgroups remained stable over the entire course of the study. A clear learning effect was found only in those in the middle disability subgroup. Results support the utilization of repeated measures of physical performance in research that evaluates older persons over time.

Preventive services for breast and cervical cancer in U.S. office-based practices

BACKGROUND

This study was undertaken to examine patterns of delivery of preventive services for breast and cervical cancer and the bundling of several preventive services.

METHODS

Data from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey on visits by women ages > or = 45 years to office-based physicians during 1989 and 1990 were analyzed for delivery of clinical breast examination, mammography, breast self-examination counseling, pelvic examination, and Pap smear.

RESULTS

An estimated 38.7 million office visits included one or more preventive services for breast and cervical cancer (46.7 visits per 100 women per year). Visits that included clinical breast examination, Pap smear, and mammography together were largely provided by obstetricians and gynecologists, less by general/ family practice and general internal medicine physicians, and rarely by subspecialists. Twenty-two percent of these visits were periodic preventive visits, lowest for subspecialists and highest for general internists. Major sources of payment included insurance and personal resources at younger ages and Medicare at ages > or = 65.

CONCLUSIONS

The periodic preventive visit has received only limited acceptance by physicians who provide preventive care for adult women. Payment for preventive visits changes with age and may affect the appropriate provision of services.

Alcohol consumption and risk of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism in older persons

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether low to moderate alcohol consumption decreases the risk of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Three communities of the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 7959 persons aged 68 years or older.

MEASUREMENTS

The incidence of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism was assessed by surveying hospital discharge diagnoses and deaths from 1985 through 1992. Those participants who estimated they used alcohol less than 1 time, on average, in the past month, less than 1 ounce per day, and 1 ounce or more per day were compared with those who reported no alcohol intake in the past year. Age, gender, race, body mass index, smoking, education, income, disability, cognitive function, arterial pressure, medication use, baseline chronic conditions, number of hospital admissions in past year, and occurrence of disease during follow-up were examined as possible confounders.

RESULTS

During 48,038 person-years of follow-up, 155 events were observed (35 deep venous thromboses and 123 pulmonary emboli). Compared with non-drinkers, after adjusting for potential confounding variables, the relative risks (95% confidence interval) for deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism associated with increasing alcohol consumption levels were 0.7 (0.4-1.1), 0.6 (0.4-0.9), and 0.5 (0.2-1.1), respectively (P for trend = .004). The results were unchanged after stratifying on health status and disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Low to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a decreased risk of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism in older persons.

Calcium-channel blockade and incidence of cancer in aged populations

BACKGROUND

Calcium-channel blockers can alter apoptosis, a mechanism for destruction of cancer cells. We examined whether the long-term use of calcium-channel blockers is associated with an increased risk of cancer.

METHODS

Between 1988 and 1992 we carried out a prospective cohort study of 5052 people aged 71 years or more and who lived in three regions of Massachusetts, Iowa, and Connecticut USA. Those taking calcium-channel blockers (n = 451) were compared with all other participants (n = 4601). The incidence of cancer was assessed by survey of hospital discharge diagnoses and causes of death. These outcomes were validated by the cancer registry in the one region where it was available. Demographic variables, disability, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, blood pressure, body-mass index, use of other drugs, hospital admissions for other causes, and comorbidity were all assessed as possible confounding factors.

FINDINGS

The hazard ratio for cancer associated with calcium-channel blockers (1549 person-years, 47 events) compared with those not taking calcium-channel blockers (17225 person-years, 373 events) was 1.72 (95% CI 1.27-2.34, p = 0.0005), after adjustment for confounding factors. A significant dose-response gradient was found. Hazard ratios associated with verapamil, diltiazem, and nifedipine did not differ significantly from each other. The results remained unchanged in community-specific analyses. The association between calcium-channel blockers and cancer was found with most of the common cancers.

INTERPRETATION

Calcium-channel blockers were associated with a general increased risk of cancer in the study populations, which suggested a common mechanism. These observational findings should be confirmed by other studies.

Hospital and nursing home use in the last three months of life

We describe decedents' days of care and changes in residence due to episodes of hospital and institutional care in the last 90 days of life. Data are from the National Institute on Aging's Survey of the Last Days of Life (SLDOL) with informants' responses for a sample of 1,227 decedents age 65 years and older from Fairfield County, Connecticut. Overall, three-fourths of the decedents made only one transition to or from a health care facility in the last 3 months of life and another 10% made two or three transitions. Hospital days decreased slightly with age, but nursing home days increased dramatically. Physical disability, lack of social contacts, incontinence, and a diagnosis of dementia were significantly associated with a long, terminal, institutional stay. Future cost savings are likely to be achieved more through the reduction of nursing home care in the last months of life than in a reduction of hospital care.

Do calcium channel blockers increase the risk of cancer?

Calcium channel blockers can block calcium signals that trigger cell differentiation and apoptosis, which are important mechanisms of cancer growth regulation. To ascertain whether calcium channel blocker use was associated with an increased risk of cancer, 750 hypertensive persons age > or = 71 years, with no history of cancer at baseline, were followed from 1988 through 1992. The patients were using either beta-blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or calcium channel blockers (verapamil, nifedipine, and diltiazem; mainly of the short-acting variety). Compared to beta-blockers (n = 424, 28 events), after adjusting for age, gender, race, smoking, body mass index, and number of hospital admissions not related with cancer, the relative risks of cancer (95% confidence interval) for angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (n = 124, 6 events) and calcium channel blockers (n = 202, 27 events) were 0.73 (0.30 to 1.78) and 2.02 (1.16 to 3.54), respectively. These findings indicate that calcium channel blocker therapy might increase the risk of cancer. New data are needed in patients using modern calcium channel blocker agents with more gradual absorption. This report should encourage further study of cancer outcomes in elderly patients who are vulnerable to cancer and who are receiving calcium channel blockers.

Serum albumin and physical function as predictors of coronary heart disease mortality and incidence in older persons

The role of traditional risk factors in predicting coronary heart disease (CHD) among men and women aged 65 years and over has been extensively debated, but the search for risk factors that are distinctive in the elderly is still ongoing. The relation of serum albumin levels and physical disability to risk of CHD morality and incidence was prospectively assessed in a cohort of 4116 men and women, aged 71 years and over, who were evaluated in 1987-1989 and followed for a mean of 4.0 years. Outcome events were based on death certificates and Medicare hospitalization records. Analyses were adjusted for major CHD risk factors. There were 275 CHD deaths (16.8/1000 person-years) among all participants and 503 incident (fatal and nonfatal) CHD events (39.4 per 1000 person-years) among participants free of prevalent CHD during the observation period. The relative risk (RR) of CHD morality for women with an albumin concentration < 38 g/liter was 2.5 times higher than for women with albumin > 43 g/liter (RR 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-4.6). There was a significant and graded increase in CHD incidence with decreasing albumin concentration in women but not in men. The presence of physical disability doubled the risk of CHD mortality among both men and women, an increase in risk that was comparable to that imposed by a previous myocardial infarction and was independent of other coronary risk factors. Disability had a lesser impact on CHD incidence, which was significant only in women. Low albumin concentration (< 38 g/liter) identifies a group of women at higher risk of CHD mortality and incidence. Physical disability is an independent predictor of CHD mortality in both men and women and for CHD incidence only in women.

Progressive versus catastrophic disability: a longitudinal view of the disablement process

BACKGROUND

There is little epidemiologic data on the development of disability over time in older persons. This study uses prospective data from cohorts followed annually for 6 to 7 years to identify persons who developed severe disability and to characterize the time course of their disabling process and subsequent mortality.

METHODS

Incidence rates of severe disability, defined as need for help in three or more activities of daily living (ADLs), were estimated for 6,640 persons who had not reported severe disability at baseline and at the first four annual follow-up visits. Among persons developing severe disability, those who reported no need for help in ADLs in previous interviews were defined as cases of catastrophic disability, and those who had previously reported some disability in ADLs were defined as cases of progressive disability.

RESULTS

Overall, 212 subjects developed progressive and 227 developed catastrophic disability. The rates of progressive disability and catastrophic disability were 11.3 and 12.1 cases per 1,000 person-years, respectively. For both types of disability, incidence rates increased exponentially with age, but the increase was steeper for progressive disability. At ages 70-74, less than 25% of severe disability was progressive, while over age 85 progressive disability represented more than half of severe disability. Incidence rates of total and both types of severe disability were similar in men and women. Mortality after severe disability onset was extremely high. Survival was unrelated to age at disability onset and type of disability but was significantly longer in women than in men (median 3.44 vs 2.12 years; p < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Tracking the development of disability provides new and important insights into the disability experience in older men and women that are potentially relevant in planning preventive, intervention, and long-term care strategies.

Adequacy of training in preventive medicine and public health: a national survey of residency graduates

PURPOSE

To evaluate training in general preventive medicine and public health, determining which experiences and institutional sponsors best prepare residents for practice and where improvements are most needed.

METHOD

A 1991 survey of the 1,070 graduates of preventive medicine residencies from 1979 through 1989 asked the graduates to measure the adequacy of their training in preventive medicine topic areas by using a Likert-type scale of 1 (poor) to 4 (excellent). Adequacy was analyzed for variation against practice emphasis during training, training program sponsor, and other variables. The statistical methods included Student's t-test, analysis of variance and linear regression.

RESULTS

A total of 797 graduates (74.5%) responded. The overall mean ratings of adequacy of training were 3.1 (SD, 0.9) for epidemiology, 2.5 (SD, 1.0) for clinical preventive medicine, 2.4 (SD, 0.9) for environmental health, 2.3 (SD, 0.9) for health administration, 2.3 (SD, 0.9) for health education and behavioral sciences, and 2.2 (SD, 0.9) for occupational medicine. Training was rated highest for topics emphasized during practice experiences. Adequacy varied by type of institution sponsoring the residency. Women rated their training as being less adequate than did men in all areas except clinical preventive medicine. The graduates tended ultimately to practice in topic areas emphasized during training.

CONCLUSION

The graduates' ratings suggest that improvements are most needed in health administration, environment health, health education, and occupational medicine. Potential improvement strategies include highly focused practice experiences and increased emphasis on training in actual practice settings and community sites.

Cognitive impairment and risk of stroke in the older population

OBJECTIVE

Recent studies have suggested that vascular dementia in older persons is more common than previously hypothesized. A substantial proportion of dementia in old age may be an early manifestation of cerebrovascular disease (CVD), that eventually becomes clinically evident as an acute cerebrovascular accident. This study was aimed at assessing whether cognitive impairment and cognitive decline in older persons free of stroke are associated with higher risk of future stroke, independently of other risk factors.

DESIGN

Population-based prospective study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 5024 subjects from the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, who were alive and had no history of previous stroke at the sixth follow-up visit. Subjects who had reported a stroke in a previous interview or with a diagnosis of cerebrovascular disease in a hospitalization record during the previous 3 years were excluded.

MEASUREMENTS

Cognitive function was assessed by the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ). Occurrence of a stroke was prospectively assessed by examining hospital discharge diagnoses and death certificates.

RESULTS

During 19,533 person-years of follow-up, 259 strokes were recorded (13.3/1000 person-years). Stroke incidence was lowest in those with normal SPMSQ score (12.1/1000 person-years), intermediate in those with moderate impairment (16.3/1000 person-years), and highest in those with severe impairment (30.9/1000 person-years). Adjusting for age, education, smoking, history of hypertension, blood pressure, heart attack, diabetes, and disability, the relative risks of stroke for moderate and severe cognitive impairment were 1.2 (0.9-1.6) and 2.2 (1.2-3.8), respectively. The association between cognitive impairment and incident stroke was not mediated by hypertension or diabetes. Compared with subjects with stable or improved SPMSQ score in the previous 3 years, those who declined had higher risk of stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

The elevated risk of subsequent strokes in older persons with cognitive impairment suggests that CVD may play larger role in causing cognitive impairment then previously suspected. It remains to be demonstrated whether reducing modifiable risk factors for CVD decreases the burden of cognitive impairment in older persons without stroke.

Factors associated with paranoid symptoms in a community sample of older adults

Symptoms of paranoia were found in 9.5% of a community sample of older adults in North Carolina. In cross-sectional analyses, these symptoms were associated most strongly with black race, lower income and education, less exercise, and more depressive symptoms. In longitudinal analysis, paranoid symptoms three years following initial interview were predicted by baseline paranoid symptoms, education and depressive symptoms at the initial interview. In blacks, paranoid symptoms may represent an appropriate response to a hostile environment rather than a psychopathic trait.

Disability as a public health outcome in the aging population

Improvements in life expectancy in the twentieth century have resulted from major declines in mortality at younger ages, but it is less well recognized that mortality declines at older ages have also played a substantial role in prolonging expectation of life. A person reaching age 65 in 1900 could expect to live an additional 11.9 years. Life expectancy at age 65 rose to 14.4 years by 1960 and then increased by about three years in the next three decades, reaching 17.5 years in 1992 (56, 70). As a greater proportion of the population survives to very old ages, the public health impact of the burden of disease and disability and related utilization of medical care and need for supportive and long-term care has become an important concern. In particular, the ability of the older person to function independently in the community is a critically important public health issue. A growing body of research in the last decade has addressed the measurement of disability, factors related to its onset, consequences of disability, and the potential for preventive interventions. This article summarizes the state of the art in these areas and discusses their public health relevance.

Depressive symptoms in the elderly: association with total white blood cell count

1. The white blood cell (WBC) count in those with high depressive symptoms and non-depressed participants in the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE) were compared. 2. Of 3769 participants 10.8% had high depressive symptoms as assessed by the Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) Scale. The mean white blood cell count was higher in the high depressive symptoms group compared to the non-depressed group (6.8 +/- 0.12 x 10(9) WBC/1 and 6.5 +/- 0.03 x 10(9) WBC/1, respectively, p < 0.01). 3. Because older adults frequently have disabling chronic conditions which could both influence their leukocyte count and cause depressive symptoms, models were developed which controlled for the potential confounding. Even after adjusting for potential confounders, high depressive symptoms were still associated with higher white blood cell counts.

Occult caffeine as a source of sleep problems in an older population

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of caffeine in medication on sleep complaints in a community population of persons aged 67 or older.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis.

SETTING

Iowa 65+ Rural Health Study.

PARTICIPANTS

Those who completed their own interview, including a section on the use of medications, during the third annual in-person follow-up in 1984-1985.

MEASUREMENTS

MAIN OUTCOMES

trouble falling asleep or other sleep complaints. Covariates: use of caffeine-containing medication, spasmolytic, or sympathomimetic drug; number of drugs used; depressive symptoms; self-perceived health; comorbidity, hip fracture, arthritis, ulcer of stomach or intestines; and consumption of caffeinated beverages.

RESULTS

The prevalence of caffeinated medication use by participants was 5.4%. Those reporting the use of any caffeine-containing medication were at an increased risk of having trouble falling asleep (Odds Ratio [OR] = 1.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19-2.68). There was no significant risk of other reported nighttime or daytime sleep problems associated with use of caffeine-containing drugs. Even after adjusting for other factors that could interfere with initiation of sleep, such as painful disease, depressive symptoms, polypharmacy, use of specific medications known to interfere with sleep, and coffee consumption, the use of caffeine-containing medication still presented a significantly increased risk of having trouble falling asleep (OR = 1.60, CI = 1.04-2.46). Although those participants using over-the-counter analgesic medication containing caffeine had an increased risk of trouble falling asleep (OR = 1.88, CI = 1.22-2.90), there was no significant risk of trouble falling asleep for those who took similar noncaffeinated OTC analgesic drugs (OR = 1.26, CI = 0.87-1.83).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of caffeine-containing medication is associated with sleep problems. Healthcare providers should be aware of potential problems associated with over-the-counter medications containing caffeine and should counsel patients about the potential of sleep problems. Older patients should be encouraged to read the label on medications and to select drugs that are caffeine-free when that is possible.

Lower-extremity function in persons over the age of 70 years as a predictor of subsequent disability

BACKGROUND

Functional assessment is an important part of the evaluation of elderly persons. We conducted this study to determine whether objective measures of physical function can predict subsequent disability in older persons.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included men and women 71 years of age or older who were living in the community, who reported no disability in the activities of daily living, and who reported that they were able to walk one-half mile (0.8 km) and climb stairs without assistance. The subjects completed a short battery of physical-performance tests and participated in a follow-up interview four years later. The tests included an assessment of standing balance, a timed 8-ft (2.4-m) walk at a normal pace, and a timed test of five repetitions of rising from a chair and sitting down.

RESULTS

Among the 1122 subjects who were not disabled at base line and who participated in the four-year follow-up, lower scores on the base-line performance tests were associated with a statistically significant, graduated increase in the frequency of disability in the activities of daily living and mobility-related disability at follow-up. After adjustment for age, sex, and the presence of chronic disease, those with the lowest scores on the performance tests were 4.2 to 4.9 times as likely to have disability at four years as those with the highest performance scores, and those with intermediate performance scores were 1.6 to 1.8 times as likely to have disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Among nondisabled older persons living in the community, objective measures of lower-extremity function were highly predictive of subsequent disability. Measures of physical performance may identify older persons with a preclinical stage of disability who may benefit from interventions to prevent the development of frank disability.

Serum creatinine levels in older adults: relationship with health status and medications

We aimed to examine the association of serum creatinine with health status and current medications in the population of older adults. We employed a cross-sectional study within an ongoing cohort of 3999 residents of three communities of the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly who had venepuncture at the 6-year follow-up when they were aged 71 years and older. Serum creatinine levels, history of diabetes and heart attack, current medications, and blood pressure were measured. Creatinine levels were higher in men than in women, and in blacks than in whites. Higher creatinine levels were observed in persons with a history of diabetes or heart attack, and in those reporting use of cimetidine and diuretic medications. Persons taking frusemide and the potassium-sparing diuretics had higher creatinine levels than those taking thiazides. This study confirms associations of higher creatinine with male sex, older age, black race, history of diabetes and cimetidine use reported from cross-sectional research in younger populations and in smaller, more selected groups of older adults. Longitudinal studies will be necessary to strengthen our understanding of the causes of changes in kidney function in the older population.

Antidepressant use in the elderly: association with demographic characteristics, health-related factors, and health care utilization

The characteristics of antidepressant use and its correlates were assessed in the four Established Populations for Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (EPESE) communities (n = 13,074). Women were significantly more likely to be treated with an antidepressant drug than men, and African-Americans were significantly less likely than whites to be using antidepressant medication. Of the health-related measures, poor self-perceived health, polypharmacy, disabilities in activities of daily living, and a history of stroke were associated with the use of antidepressants. Each utilization of health care variable, (number of doctors visits, overnight hospitalization in the past year, and use of a regular doctor), was associated with antidepressant use in at least two of the four communities. After entering variables in a multivariate regression model, higher antidepressant use was significantly associated with female gender, race, poor self-perceived health, and a greater number of contacts with doctors in the past year.