Mobilizing resources with an investment case to mitigate cross-border malaria transmission and achieve malaria elimination in South Africa

South Africa's effort to eliminate malaria is significantly challenged by a large number of imported malaria cases, especially from neighbouring Mozambique. The country has a funding gap to achieve its malaria elimination goals (prior to 2019) and is ineligible to receive a national allocation from the Global Fund. The findings of an IC were utilised to successfully mobilise resources for malaria elimination in South Africa in 2018. A five-step resource mobilisation strategy was implemented to highlight financing challenges and leverage the economic evidence from an IC for malaria elimination in South Africa. South Africa's malaria programme implements control and elimination activities in three malaria-endemic provinces (KwaZulu Natal, Limpopo, and Mpumalanga). Driven by the IC findings, the South African government took an unprecedented step and increased total domestic malaria financing by approximately 36%, from the 2018/19 to the 2019/20 financial years through the creation of a new conditional grant for malaria. The IC findings predicted that malaria control in southern Mozambique is a prerequisite to eliminate malaria in South Africa. Based on this, the South African government also allocated funding towards a co-financing mechanism to support malaria control efforts in southern Mozambique. The IC findings assisted the South African National Department of Health to make a convincing case to key government decision-makers to invest in national malaria elimination and maximise economic returns in the long run. The South African government is the first in Southern Africa to mobilise a significant increase in domestic malaria financing to address the financial sustainability of both national and regional malaria elimination efforts. Continued surveillance activities will be required to prevent the re-establishment of malaria transmission even after malaria elimination is achieved in South Africa. Information sharing and close collaboration with provincial and national government officials were key to the successful outcome.

In with the good, out with the bad - Investment standards for external funding of health?

In recent decades, external financing of health systems in low- and middle-income countries has helped achieve remarkable improvements across the world. However, these successes have not come without problems. There are a growing number of areas where external assistance can cause harm and even undermine the development of national health systems. Recent decades have seen a surge of knowledge on investing in health systems. We propose the setting up of investment standards for external assistance that aim to incentivize a more efficient evidence-based investment in a country's health system, led by decision-makers in country. Using a more standardized process would lead to a better use of precious external assistance resources. The long-term goal would be fully functioning health systems with all the necessary essential public health functions in all countries.

Disparities in intimate partner violence among women at the intersection of disability and HIV status in South Africa: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

Previous research suggests a significant relationship between intimate partner violence (IPV) and HIV infection in women and that the risk of IPV is heightened in women with disabilities. Women with disabilities, particularly those residing in low-income and middle-income countries, may experience additional burdens that increase their vulnerability to IPV. We aimed to examine the association between having disability and HIV infection and the risk of IPV among women in South Africa.

DESIGN

Using the 2016 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey, we calculated the prevalence of IPV and conducted modified Poisson regressions to estimate the unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios of experiencing IPV by disability and HIV status.

PARTICIPANTS

Our final analytical sample included 1269 ever-partnered women aged 18-49 years, who responded to the IPV module and received HIV testing.

RESULTS

The prevalence of IPV was twice as high in women with disabilities with HIV infection compared with women without disabilities without HIV infection (21.2% vs 50.1%). Our unadjusted regression analysis showed that compared with women without disabilities without HIV infection, women with disabilities with HIV infection had almost four times higher odds (OR 3.72, 95% CI 1.27 to 10.9, p<0.05) of experiencing IPV. It appeared that women with disabilities with HIV infection experience compounded disparity. The association was compounded, with the OR for the combination of disability status and HIV status equal to or more than the sum of each of the individual ORs.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with disabilities and HIV infection are at exceptionally high risk of IPV in South Africa. Given that HIV infection and disability magnify each other's risks for IPV, targeted interventions to prevent IPV and to address the complex and varied needs of doubly marginalised populations of women with disabilities with HIV infection are critical.

Recalibrating the notion of modelling for policymaking during pandemics

COVID-19 disease models have aided policymakers in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) with many critical decisions. Many challenges remain surrounding their use, from inappropriate model selection and adoption, inadequate and untimely reporting of evidence, to the lack of iterative stakeholder engagement in policy formulation and deliberation. These issues can contribute to the misuse of models and hinder effective policy implementation. Without guidance on how to address such challenges, the true potential of such models may not be realised. The COVID-19 Multi-Model Comparison Collaboration (CMCC) was formed to address this gap. CMCC is a global collaboration between decision-makers from LMICs, modellers and researchers, and development partners. To understand the limitations of existing COVID-19 disease models (primarily from high income countries) and how they could be adequately support decision-making in LMICs, a desk review of modelling experience during the COVID-19 and past disease outbreaks, two online surveys, and regular online consultations were held among the collaborators. Three key recommendations from CMCC include: A ‘fitness-for-purpose’ flowchart, a tool that concurrently walks policymakers (or their advisors) and modellers through a model selection and development process. The flowchart is organised around the following: policy aims, modelling feasibility, model implementation, model reporting commitment. Holmdahl and Buckee (2020) A ‘reporting standards trajectory’, which includes three gradually increasing standard of reports, ‘minimum’, ‘acceptable’, and ‘ideal’, and seeks collaboration from funders, modellers, and decision-makers to enhance the quality of reports over time and accountability of researchers. Malla et al. (2018) A framework for “collaborative modelling for effective policy implementation and evaluation” which extends the definition of stakeholders to funders, ground-level implementers, public, and other researchers, and outlines how each can contribute to modelling. We advocate for standardisation of modelling processes and adoption of country-owned model through iterative stakeholder participation and discuss how they can enhance trust, accountability, and public ownership to decisions.

•

COVID-19 models need appropriate adaptation to reflect contextual differences across settings.

•

Upholding scientific standards is equally important as providing evidence for policymaking during pandemics.

•

Wider stakeholder engagement with an iterative process for re-evaluating decisions is required for effective policy implementation.

Health financing reforms for Universal Health Coverage in five emerging economies

BACKGROUND

Many countries have committed to achieving Universal Health Coverage. This paper summarizes selected health financing themes from five middle-income country case studies with incomplete progress towards UHC.

METHODS

The paper focuses on key flagship UHC programs in these countries, which exist along other publicly financed health delivery systems, reviewed through the lens of key health financing functions such as revenue raising, pooling and purchasing as well as governance and institutional arrangements.

RESULTS

There is variable progress across countries. Indonesia's Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN) reforms have made substantial progress in health services coverage and health financing indicators though challenges remain in its implementation. In contrast, Ghana has seen reduced funding levels for health and achieved less than 50% in the UHC service coverage index. In India, despite Ayushman Bharat (PM-JAY) reforms having provided important innovations in purchasing and public-private mix, out of pocket spending remains high and the public health financing level low. Kenya still has a challenge to use public financing to enhance coverage for the informal sector, while South Africa has made little progress in strategic purchasing.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite variations across countries, therefore, important challenges include inadequate financing, sub-optimal pooling, and unmet expectations in strategic purchasing. While complex federal systems may complicate the path forward for most of these countries, evidence of strong political commitment in some of these countries bodes well for further progress.

The compounding effect of having HIV and a disability on child mortality among mothers in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Previous research on the association between maternal HIV status and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa was published between 2005-2011. Findings from these studies showed a higher child mortality risk among children born to HIV-positive mothers. While the population of women with disabilities is growing in developing countries, we found no research that examined the association between maternal disability in HIV-positive mothers, and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examined the potential compounding effect of maternal disability and HIV status on child mortality in South Africa.

METHODS

We analyzed data for women age 15-49 years from South Africa, using the nationally representative 2016 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey. We estimated unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios of child mortality indicators by maternal disability and maternal HIV using modified Poisson regressions.

RESULTS

Children born to disabled mothers compared to their peers born to non-disabled mothers were at a higher risk for neonatal mortality (RR = 1.80, 95% CI:1.31-2.49), infant mortality (RR = 1.69, 95% CI:1.19-2.41), and under-five mortality (RR = 1.78, 95% CI:1.05-3.01). The joint risk of maternal disability and HIV-positive status on the selected child mortality indicators is compounded such that it is more than the sum of the risks from maternal disability or maternal HIV-positive status alone (RR = 3.97 vs. joint RR = 3.67 for neonatal mortality; RR = 3.57 vs. joint RR = 3.25 for infant mortality; RR = 6.44 vs. joint RR = 3.75 for under-five mortality).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that children born to HIV-positive women with disabilities are at an exceptionally high risk of premature mortality. Established inequalities faced by women with disabilities may account for this increased risk. Given that maternal HIV and disability amplify each other's impact on child mortality, addressing disabled women's HIV-related needs and understanding the pathways and mechanisms contributing to these disparities is crucial.

What next after GDP-based cost-effectiveness thresholds?

Public payers around the world are increasingly using cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) to assess the value-for-money of an intervention and make coverage decisions. However, there is still much confusion about the meaning and uses of the CET, how it should be calculated, and what constitutes an adequate evidence base for its formulation. One widely referenced and used threshold in the last decade has been the 1-3 GDP per capita, which is often attributed to the Commission on Macroeconomics and  WHO guidelines on Choosing Interventions that are Cost Effective (WHO-CHOICE). For many reasons, however, this threshold has been widely criticised; which has led experts across the world, including the WHO, to discourage its use. This has left a vacuum for policy-makers and technical staff at a time when countries are wanting to move towards Universal Health Coverage .

This article seeks to address this gap by offering five practical options for decision-makers in low- and middle-income countries that can be used instead of the 1-3 GDP rule, to combine existing evidence with fair decision-rules or develop locally relevant CETs. It builds on existing literature as well as an engagement with a group of experts and decision-makers working in low, middle and high income countries.

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

The World Bank is publishing nine volumes of Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition (DCP3) between 2015 and 2018. Volume 9, Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, summarises the main messages from all the volumes and contains cross-cutting analyses. This Review draws on all nine volumes to convey conclusions. The analysis in DCP3 is built around 21 essential packages that were developed in the nine volumes. Each essential package addresses the concerns of a major professional community (eg, child health or surgery) and contains a mix of intersectoral policies and health-sector interventions. 71 intersectoral prevention policies were identified in total, 29 of which are priorities for early introduction. Interventions within the health sector were grouped onto five platforms (population based, community level, health centre, first-level hospital, and referral hospital). DCP3 defines a model concept of essential universal health coverage (EUHC) with 218 interventions that provides a starting point for country-specific analysis of priorities. Assuming steady-state implementation by 2030, EUHC in lower-middle-income countries would reduce premature deaths by an estimated 4·2 million per year. Estimated total costs prove substantial: about 9·1% of (current) gross national income (GNI) in low-income countries and 5·2% of GNI in lower-middle-income countries. Financing provision of continuing intervention against chronic conditions accounts for about half of estimated incremental costs. For lower-middle-income countries, the mortality reduction from implementing the EUHC can only reach about half the mortality reduction in non-communicable diseases called for by the Sustainable Development Goals. Full achievement will require increased investment or sustained intersectoral action, and actions by finance ministries to tax smoking and polluting emissions and to reduce or eliminate (often large) subsidies on fossil fuels appear of central importance. DCP3 is intended to be a model starting point for analyses at the country level, but country-specific cost structures, epidemiological needs, and national priorities will generally lead to definitions of EUHC that differ from country to country and from the model in this Review. DCP3 is particularly relevant as achievement of EUHC relies increasingly on greater domestic finance, with global developmental assistance in health focusing more on global public goods. In addition to assessing effects on mortality, DCP3 looked at outcomes of EUHC not encompassed by the disability-adjusted life-year metric and related cost-effectiveness analyses. The other objectives included financial protection (potentially better provided upstream by keeping people out of the hospital rather than downstream by paying their hospital bills for them), stillbirths averted, palliative care, contraception, and child physical and intellectual growth. The first 1000 days after conception are highly important for child development, but the next 7000 days are likewise important and often neglected.

Enhancement of Quasistationary Shocks and Heating via Temporal Staging in a Magnetized Laser-Plasma Jet

We investigate the formation of a laser-produced magnetized jet under conditions of a varying mass ejection rate and a varying divergence of the ejected plasma flow. This is done by irradiating a solid target placed in a 20 T magnetic field with, first, a collinear precursor laser pulse (10^{12}  W/cm^{2}) and, then, a main pulse (10^{13}  W/cm^{2}) arriving 9-19 ns later. Varying the time delay between the two pulses is found to control the divergence of the expanding plasma, which is shown to increase the strength of and heating in the conical shock that is responsible for jet collimation. These results show that plasma collimation due to shocks against a strong magnetic field can lead to stable, astrophysically relevant jets that are sustained over time scales 100 times the laser pulse duration (i.e., >70  ns), even in the case of strong variability at the source.

Changing the South African national antiretroviral therapy guidelines: The role of cost modelling

BACKGROUND

We were tasked by the South African Department of Health to assess the cost implications to the largest ART programme in the world of adopting sets of ART guidelines issued by the World Health Organization between 2010 and 2016.

METHODS

Using data from large South African ART clinics (n = 24,244 patients), projections of patients in need of ART, and cost data from bottom-up cost analyses, we constructed a population-level health-state transition model with 6-monthly transitions between health states depending on patients' age, CD4 cell count/ percentage, and, for adult first-line ART, time on treatment.

FINDINGS

For each set of guidelines, the modelled increase in patient numbers as a result of prevalence and uptake was substantially more than the increase resulting from additional eligibility. Under each set of guidelines, the number of people on ART was projected to increase by 31-133% over the next seven years, and cost by 84-175%, while increased eligibility led to 1-26% more patients, and 1-17% higher cost. The projected increases in treatment cost due to the 2010 and the 2015 WHO guidelines could be offset in their entirety by the introduction of cost-saving measures such as opening the drug tenders for international competition and task-shifting. Under universal treatment, annual costs of the treatment programme will decrease for the first time from 2024 onwards.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual budgetary requirements for ART will continue to increase in South Africa until universal treatment is taken to full scale. Model results were instrumental in changing South African ART guidelines, more than tripling the population on treatment between 2009 and 2017, and reducing the per-patient cost of treatment by 64%.

Improved Measurement of the π→eν Branching Ratio

A new measurement of the branching ratio R_{e/μ}=Γ(π^{+}→e^{+}ν+π^{+}→e^{+}νγ)/Γ(π^{+}→μ^{+}ν+π^{+}→μ^{+}νγ) resulted in R_{e/μ}^{exp}=[1.2344±0.0023(stat)±0.0019(syst)]×10^{-4}. This is in agreement with the standard model prediction and improves the test of electron-muon universality to the level of 0.1%.

Measurements of H-->D-->(gamma-->,pi) and implications for the convergence of the Gerasimov-Drell-Hern integral

We report new measurements of inclusive pi production from frozen-spin HD for polarized photon beams covering the Delta(1232) resonance. These provide data simultaneously on both H and D with nearly complete angular distributions of the spin-difference cross sections entering the Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn (GDH) sum rule. Recent results from Mainz and Bonn exceed the GDH prediction for the proton by 22 microb, suggesting as yet unmeasured high-energy components. Our pi0 data reveal a different angular dependence than assumed in Mainz analyses and integrate to a value that is 18 microb lower, suggesting a more rapid convergence. Our results for deuterium are somewhat lower than published data, considerably more precise, and generally lower than available calculations.

Speculations on potential anti-receptor autoimmune diseases

Many autoimmune disorders have a strong tendency to cluster in a single patient or type of patient. Therefore, in those cases in which anti-receptor antibodies are known to be responsible for one of the diseases in the cluster, it is logical to proceed investigatively on the presumption that the aetiology of other members of the cluster may also have an anti-receptor autoantibody basis. This logic is examined by considering examples of clustering in human diseases involving both organ-specific and non-organ-specific autoimmunities. The strong relationship between clustering among autoimmune diseases and the HLA-B8/DRw3 haplotype may provide a marker for anti-receptor autoimmune diseases.

New limit on the T-violating transverse muon polarization in K+-->pi0mu+nu decays

A search for T-violating transverse muon polarization (P(T)) in the K+-->pi(0)mu(+)nu decay was performed using kaon decays at rest. A new improved value P(T)=-0.0017+/-0.0023(stat)+/-0.0011(syst) was obtained giving an upper limit |P(T)|<0.0050. The T-violation parameter was determined to be Imxi=-0.0053+/-0.0071(stat)+/-0.0036(syst) giving an upper limit |Imxi|<0.016.

Downsizing of a provincial department of health--causes and implications for fiscal policy

OBJECTIVES

To analyse the financial basis for downsizing of a provincial health department and suggest implications for fiscal policy.

DESIGN

Analysis of relevant departmental, provincial and national financing and expenditure trends from 1995/96 to 2002/03.

SETTING

Western Cape (WC) Department of Health (DOH).

RESULTS

Downsizing involving 9,282 health workers (27.9%) and closure of 3,601 hospital beds (24.4%) over 5 years. Total aggregate provincial transfers (all provinces) remained fairly constant in real terms. The WC's share decreased from 11.8% in 1996/97 to 9.8% in 2002/03. This was offset by the DOH's share of the WC budget increasing from 25.6% to 29.6%, mainly because of an increase in national health conditional grants. The net effect of financing changes was that the DOH's allocation in real terms was similar in 2002/03 and 1995/96, which suggests that financing changes are not the major cause of downsizing. Expenditure analysis revealed a 39.7% real rise in the average cost of health personnel. Substantial interprovincial inequities remain.

CONCLUSION

The major cause of downsizing was wage growth, particularly following the 1996 wage agreement. Disjointed fiscal and wage policy has affected health services. Simultaneous application of policies of fiscal constraint, redistribution and substantial real wage growth has resulted in substantial downsizing with limited inroads into inequities. Inequities will continue to call for further redistribution, reduction in conditional grants and downsizing, much of which could have been avoided if fiscal and wage policy choices had been optimal.

Beyond managed care

Even as the federal government tries to prop up Medicare managed care, HMOs continue to pull out of the program. But a Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services demonstration project aims to show that one concept of managed care can keep chronically ill patients healthier and lower overall costs. The concept, coordinated care, blends case management and disease management, giving patients the resources to manage their own care more actively. But, please, just don't call it managed care.

Dopamine-1-mediated stimulation of phospholipase C activity in rat renal cortical membranes

Phospholipase C (PL-C) mediates transduction of neurotransmitter signals across membranes via hydrolysis of phosphatidylinositol-4,5-bisphosphate (PIP2), leading to generation of second messengers inositol-1,4,5-trisphosphate and diacylglycerol. In this study, dopamine-1 (DA-1) but not dopamine-2 (DA-2) agonists were shown to stimulate PL-C activity in renal cortical membranes. The DA-1 agonist, SKF 82526, stimulated the release of inositol phosphates from renal cortical membranes prelabeled with [3H]myoinositol. The majority of the label (75%) was found in phosphatidylinositol followed by PIP2 (15%) and phosphatidylinositol-4-phosphate (10%). A DA-1 specific effect on PL-C activity was also observed in an in vitro assay of PL-C activity in renal cortical membranes and basolateral and brush border membranes using [3H]PIP2 as the substrate. Dopamine and SKF 82526 stimulated the release of inositol phosphates from added [3H]PIP2 in a concentration-dependent manner. This release was blocked by the DA-1 antagonist SCH 23390 but not by the alpha-adrenergic antagonists phentolamine and prazosin. In contrast, the DA-2 agonist LY 171555 had no effect on inositol phosphate release. Guanosine 5'-(3-O-thio)triphosphate enhanced while guanyl-5'-yl thiophosphate attenuated the DA-1 agonist-stimulated PL-C activity. PL-C activity as measured by [3H]PIP2 hydrolysis had a pH optimum of 6.5, was inhibited by Mg2+ concentrations above 1 mM, was linear with time and protein concentration, and was sensitive to phosphatidylserine and calcium concentrations. We conclude that PL-C is activated by DA-1 but not DA-2 agonists in renal cortical membranes as well as both the basolateral and brush border renal tubular membranes. It is speculated that this action may mediate the natriuretic effects of dopamine in renal tubular epithelia.

A patent law primer for clinical chemists and other scientists

Patenting and commercialization by academic scientists, despite potential drawbacks, are on balance highly desirable if technology is to be transferred from the laboratory to the public use, and if the scientist and his institution are to be encouraged to participate in this transfer. If that premise is accepted, there is much that academic institutions can do to foster utilization of their biotechnological discoveries. Such institutions should have a patent policy that is known to all and that includes a professional patent administrator and clear administrative procedures for carrying out such policy. Scientists should be trained to recognize and protect their inventions and to appropriately disclose their inventions to their patent officers. Ideally, scientists should know the rudiments of the patent statutes of their own country and should be aware of what constitutes trade secrets. Scientists should be given guidance in working with patent attorneys in the preparation and prosecution of patent applications. Finally, given human nature, institutions should see to it that their scientists are provided with a suitable environment in which to invent, and appropriate incentives to do so.

A patent law primer for clinical chemists and other scientists

Patenting and commercialization by academic scientists, despite potential drawbacks, are on balance highly desirable if technology is to be transferred from the laboratory to the public use, and if the scientist and his institution are to be encouraged to participate in this transfer. If that premise is accepted, there is much that academic institutions can do to foster utilization of their biotechnological discoveries. Such institutions should have a patent policy that is known to all and that includes a professional patent administrator and clear administrative procedures for carrying out such policy. Scientists should be trained to recognize and protect their inventions and to appropriately disclose their inventions to their patent officers. Ideally, scientists should know the rudiments of the patent statutes of their own country and should be aware of what constitutes trade secrets. Scientists should be given guidance in working with patent attorneys in the preparation and prosecution of patent applications. Finally, given human nature, institutions should see to it that their scientists are provided with a suitable environment in which to invent, and appropriate incentives to do so.