Correction: Internet Tool to Support Self-Assessment and Self-Swabbing of Sore Throat: Development and Feasibility Study

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/39791.].

Randomised controlled trial of population screening for atrial fibrillation in people aged 70 years and over to reduce stroke: protocol for the SAFER trial

INTRODUCTION

There is a lack of evidence that the benefits of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) outweigh the harms. Following the completion of the Screening for Atrial Fibrillation with ECG to Reduce stroke (SAFER) pilot trial, the aim of the main SAFER trial is to establish whether population screening for AF reduces incidence of stroke risk.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Approximately 82 000 people aged 70 years and over and not on oral anticoagulation are being recruited from general practices in England. Patients on the palliative care register or residents in a nursing home are excluded. Eligible people are identified using electronic patient records from general practices and sent an invitation and consent form to participate by post. Consenting participants are randomised at a ratio of 2:1 (control:intervention) with clustering by household. Those randomised to the intervention arm are sent an information leaflet inviting them to participate in screening, which involves use of a handheld single-lead ECG four times a day for 3 weeks. ECG traces identified by an algorithm as possible AF are reviewed by cardiologists. Participants with AF are seen by a general practitioner for consideration of anticoagulation. The primary outcome is stroke. Major secondary outcomes are: death, major bleeding and cardiovascular events. Follow-up will be via electronic health records for an average of 4 years. The primary analysis will be by intention-to-treat using time-to-event modelling. Results from this trial will be combined with follow-up data from the cluster-randomised pilot trial by fixed-effects meta-analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The London-Central National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (19/LO/1597) provided ethical approval. Dissemination will include public-friendly summaries, reports and engagement with the UK National Screening Committee.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN72104369.

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.

Cost-utility analysis of molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for community-based adults with COVID-19 and increased risk of adverse outcomes in the UK PANORAMIC trial

BACKGROUND

The cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral for early treatment of SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated populations.

AIM

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir relative to usual care alone among mainly vaccinated community-based people at higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 over six months.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial in the UK.

METHOD

A cost-utility analysis that adopted a UK National Health Service and personal social services perspective and a six-month time horizon was performed using PANORAMIC trial data. Cost-effectiveness was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses assessed the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity. Threshold analysis explored the price for molnupiravir consistent with likely reimbursement.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, molnupiravir had higher mean costs of £449 (95% confidence interval [CI] 445 to 453) and higher mean QALYs of 0.0055 (95% CI 0.004 to 0.007) than usual care (mean incremental cost per QALY of £81190). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses showed similar results, except those aged ≥75 years with a 55% probability of being cost-effective at a £30000 per QALY threshold. Molnupiravir would have to be priced around £147 per course to be cost-effective at a £15000 per QALY threshold.

CONCLUSION

Molnupiravir at the current cost of £513 per course is unlikely to be cost-effective relative to usual care over a six-month time horizon among mainly vaccinated COVID-19 patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes, except those aged ≥75 years.

Internet Tool to Support Self-Assessment and Self-Swabbing of Sore Throat: Development and Feasibility Study

BACKGROUND

Sore throat is a common problem and a common reason for the overuse of antibiotics. A web-based tool that helps people assess their sore throat, through the use of clinical prediction rules, taking throat swabs or saliva samples, and taking throat photographs, has the potential to improve self-management and help identify those who are the most and least likely to benefit from antibiotics.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a web-based tool to help patients and parents or carers self-assess sore throat symptoms and take throat photographs, swabs, and saliva samples for diagnostic testing. We then explored the acceptability and feasibility of using the tool in adults and children with sore throats.

METHODS

We used the Person-Based Approach to develop a web-based tool and then recruited adults and children with sore throats who participated in this study by attending general practices or through social media advertising. Participants self-assessed the presence of FeverPAIN and Centor score criteria and attempted to photograph their throat and take throat swabs and saliva tests. Study processes were observed via video call, and participants were interviewed about their views on using the web-based tool. Self-assessed throat inflammation and pus were compared to clinician evaluation of patients' throat photographs.

RESULTS

A total of 45 participants (33 adults and 12 children) were recruited. Of these, 35 (78%) and 32 (71%) participants completed all scoring elements for FeverPAIN and Centor scores, respectively, and most (30/45, 67%) of them reported finding self-assessment relatively easy. No valid response was provided for swollen lymph nodes, throat inflammation, and pus on the throat by 11 (24%), 9 (20%), and 13 (29%) participants respectively. A total of 18 (40%) participants provided a throat photograph of adequate quality for clinical assessment. Patient assessment of inflammation had a sensitivity of 100% (3/3) and specificity of 47% (7/15) compared with the clinician-assessed photographs. For pus on the throat, the sensitivity was 100% (3/3) and the specificity was 71% (10/14). A total of 89% (40/45), 93% (42/45), 89% (40/45), and 80% (30/45) of participants provided analyzable bacterial swabs, viral swabs, saliva sponges, and saliva drool samples, respectively. Participants were generally happy and confident in providing samples, with saliva samples rated as slightly more acceptable than swab samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Most adult and parent participants were able to use a web-based intervention to assess the clinical features of throat infections and generate scores using clinical prediction rules. However, some had difficulties assessing clinical signs, such as lymph nodes, throat pus, and inflammation, and scores were assessed as sensitive but not specific. Many participants had problems taking photographs of adequate quality, but most were able to take throat swabs and saliva samples.

Gut microbiology of UK care home residents: a cross-sectional analysis from a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence of potentially clinically relevant gut pathogens and associations with the carriage of resistant organisms in UK care home residents.

METHODS

Stool samples were collected pre-randomisation from care home residents participating in a randomised placebo-controlled trial. Cultivable clinically relevant bacteria were analysed. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by agar dilution (amoxicillin, co-amoxiclav, gentamicin, trimethoprim, nitrofurantoin, and ciprofloxacin). We also aimed to detect resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, carbapenems, and vancomycin.

RESULTS

Stool samples were available for 159/310 residents participating in the trial (51%) from 23 care homes between 2016 and 2018. In total, 402 bacterial isolates were cultured from 158 stool samples and 29 different species were cultured. The five most common species were Escherichia coli (155/158, 98%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (40/158, 25%), Enterococcus faecalis (35/158, 22%), Enterococcus faecium (30/158, 19%), and Proteus mirabilis (25/158, 16%). Enterobacterales isolates were cultured from 157 samples (99%), and resistance to at least one of the tested antimicrobials was found in 119 of these (76%). There were high levels of variation in outcomes by care home.

DISCUSSION

We demonstrated that care home residents harbour significant levels of antimicrobial-resistant organisms in their stool. This work emphasises the importance of both enhanced infection control practices and antimicrobial stewardship programmes to support the appropriate use of antimicrobials in this setting.

What makes a multidisciplinary medication review and deprescribing intervention for older people work well in primary care? A realist review and synthesis

BACKGROUND

A third of older people take five or more regular medications (polypharmacy). Conducting medication reviews in primary care is key to identify and reduce/ stop inappropriate medications (deprescribing). Recent recommendations for effective deprescribing include shared-decision making and a multidisciplinary approach. Our aim was to understand when, why, and how interventions for medication review and deprescribing in primary care involving multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) work (or do not work) for older people.

METHODS

A realist synthesis following the Realist And Meta-narrative Evidence Syntheses: Evolving Standards guidelines was completed. A scoping literature review informed the generation of an initial programme theory. Systematic searches of different databases were conducted, and documents screened for eligibility, with data extracted based on a Context, Mechanisms, Outcome (CMO) configuration to develop further our programme theory. Documents were appraised based on assessments of relevance and rigour. A Stakeholder consultation with 26 primary care health care professionals (HCPs), 10 patients and three informal carers was conducted to test and refine the programme theory. Data synthesis was underpinned by Normalisation Process Theory to identify key mechanisms to enhance the implementation of MDT medication review and deprescribing in primary care.

FINDINGS

A total of 2821 abstracts and 175 full-text documents were assessed for eligibility, with 28 included. Analysis of documents alongside stakeholder consultation outlined 33 CMO configurations categorised under four themes: 1) HCPs roles, responsibilities and relationships; 2) HCPs training and education; 3) the format and process of the medication review 4) involvement and education of patients and informal carers. A number of key mechanisms were identified including clearly defined roles and good communication between MDT members, integration of pharmacists in the team, simulation-based training or team building training, targeting high-risk patients, using deprescribing tools and drawing on expertise of other HCPs (e.g., nurses and frailty practitioners), involving patents and carers in the process, starting with 'quick wins', offering deprescribing as 'drug holidays', and ensuring appropriate and tailored follow-up plans that allow continuity of care and management.

CONCLUSION

We identified key mechanisms that could inform the design of future interventions and services that successfully embed deprescribing in primary care.

Feasibility of a placebo-controlled trial of antibiotics for possible urinary tract infection in care homes: a qualitative interview study

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of suspected urinary tract infection (UTI) in care and nursing home residents is commonly based on vague non-localising symptoms (for example, confusion), potentially leading to inappropriate antibiotic prescription. The safety of withholding antibiotics in such cases could be addressed by a randomised controlled trial (RCT); however, this would require close monitoring of residents, and support from care home staff, clinicians, residents, and families.

AIM

To explore the views of residential care and nursing home staff (herein referred to as care home staff) and primary care clinicians on the feasibility and design of a potential RCT of antibiotics for suspected UTI in care home residents, with no localising urinary symptoms.

DESIGN & SETTING

A qualitative interview study with primary care clinicians and care home staff in the UK.

METHOD

Semi-structured interviews with 16 care home staff and 11 primary care clinicians were thematically analysed.

RESULTS

Participants were broadly supportive of the proposed RCT. The safety of residents was a priority and there was strong support for using the RESTORE2 (Recognise Early Soft Signs, Take Observations, Respond, Escalate) assessment tool to monitor residents; however, there were concerns about associated training requirements, especially for night and temporary staff. Effective communication (with residents, families, and staff) was deemed essential, and carers were confident that residents and families would be supportive of the RCT if the rationale was clearly explained and safety systems were robust. There were mixed views on a placebo-controlled design. The perceived additional burden was seen as a potential barrier, and the use of temporary staff and the out-of-hours period were highlighted as potential risk areas.

CONCLUSION

The support for this potential trial was encouraging. Future development will need to prioritise resident safety (especially in the out-of-hours period), effective communication, and minimising additional burden on staff to optimise recruitment.

Platform adaptive trial of novel antivirals for early treatment of COVID-19 In the community (PANORAMIC): protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial of community novel antiviral treatment of COVID-19 in people at increased risk of more severe disease

INTRODUCTION

There is an urgent need to determine the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PANORAMIC is a UK-wide, open-label, prospective, adaptive, multiarm platform, randomised clinical trial that evaluates antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new antiviral treatments as they become available, and the introduction and cessation of existing interventions via interim analyses. The first two interventions to be evaluated are molnupiravir (Lagevrio) and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid).

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

community-dwelling within 5 days of onset of symptomatic COVID-19 (confirmed by PCR or lateral flow test), and either (1) aged 50 years and over, or (2) aged 18-49 years with qualifying comorbidities. Registration occurs via the trial website and by telephone. Recruitment occurs remotely through the central trial team, or in person through clinical sites. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a trial drug plus usual care. Outcomes are collected via a participant-completed daily electronic symptom diary for 28 days post randomisation. Participants and/or their Trial Partner are contacted by the research team after days 7, 14 and 28 if the diary is not completed, or if the participant is unable to access the diary. The primary efficacy endpoint is all-cause, non-elective hospitalisation and/or death within 28 days of randomisation. Multiple prespecified interim analyses allow interventions to be stopped for futility or superiority based on prespecified decision criteria. A prospective economic evaluation is embedded within the trial.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval granted by South Central-Berkshire REC number: 21/SC/0393; IRAS project ID: 1004274. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN30448031; EudraCT number: 2021-005748-31.

Systematic review of clinical practice guidelines for acne vulgaris published between January 2017 and July 2021

Background

Acne is very common, can cause considerable negative impact on quality of life and there is increasing concern over the use of long courses of oral antibiotics for this condition.

Objectives

(1) To critically appraise reporting in acne guidelines and compare this with previous systematic review of acne guidelines. (2) Examine acne treatment guidance on pre-specified acne treatments of interest and compare between acne guidelines.

Methods

Searches for new or updated guidelines were carried out in MEDLINE, Embase, Google Scholar, LILACS from 1 January 2017 to 31 July 2021, supplemented by searching a guideline-specific depository and checking for updates to guidelines included in previous review. We included guidelines, consensus statements or care protocols on the medical treatment of acne vulgaris in adults and/or children and excluded those that focused on a single intervention or subgroup of acne, regional adaptations of guidelines or guidelines included in previous review. AGREE II checklist was applied to critically appraise reporting of guidelines. Results were synthesised narratively.

Results

Of 807 abstracts identified nine guidelines were identified that were eligible for inclusion. All guidelines had AGREE II scores above average in at least one domain and reporting was substantially improved compared to the systematic review of acne carried out 5 years previously. There was consensus between guidelines on the key role of topical treatments as first-line acne treatment and most recommended continuing topical treatments as maintenance therapy. There was considerable variation between guidelines on classification of severity, indications for commencing oral antibiotics and on maximum duration of oral antibiotics. However, there was consensus on the need for co-prescription of a non-antibiotic topical treatment when using oral antibiotics. There were notable differences on recommendations regarding provision of information for patients on how to use topical treatments or how to mitigate against side effects.

Conclusions

Substantial differences in classification of acne severity hampered comparisons between guidelines. Although development and reporting of guidelines has improved over the past 5 years, differences in key recommendations remain, possibly reflecting uncertainties in the underlying evidence base. Differences between guidelines could have substantial implications for prevalence of antibiotic prescribing for acne.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and risk of COVID-19 infection: survey of U.K. public from November 2020 - May 2021

INTRODUCTION

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as handwashing, social distancing and face mask wearing, have been widely promoted to reduce the spread of COVID-19. This study aimed to explore the relationship between self-reported use of NPIs and COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

We conducted an online questionnaire study recruiting members of the UK public from November 2020 to May 2021. The association between self-reported COVID-19 illness and reported use of NPIs was explored using logistic regression and controlling for participant characteristics, month of questionnaire completion, and vaccine status. Participants who had been exposed to COVID-19 in their household in the previous 2 weeks were excluded.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven thousand seven hundred fifty-eight participants were included and 2,814 (10.1%) reported having a COVID-19 infection. The odds of COVID-19 infection were reduced with use of a face covering in unadjusted (OR 0.17 (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.20) and adjusted (aOR 0.19, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.23) analyses. Social distancing (OR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31; aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.43) and handwashing when arriving home (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.73; aOR 0.63, 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.83) also reduced the odds of COVID-19. Being in crowded places of 10-100 people (OR 1.89, 95% CI: 1.70 to 2.11; aOR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.42 to 1.85) and > 100 people (OR 2.33, 95% CI: 2.11 to 2.58; aOR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.53 to 1.97) were both associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infection. Handwashing before eating, avoiding touching the face, and cleaning things with virus on were all associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infections.

CONCLUSIONS

This large observational study found evidence for strong protective effects for individuals from use of face coverings, social distancing (including avoiding crowded places) and handwashing on arriving home on developing COVID-19 infection. We also found evidence for an increased risk associated with other behaviours, possibly from recall bias.

Molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for adults with COVID-19 at increased risk of adverse outcomes (PANORAMIC): an open-label, platform-adaptive randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The safety, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral medication for SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. We aimed to establish whether the addition of molnupiravir to usual care reduced hospital admissions and deaths associated with COVID-19 in this population.

METHODS

PANORAMIC was a UK-based, national, multicentre, open-label, multigroup, prospective, platform adaptive randomised controlled trial. Eligible participants were aged 50 years or older-or aged 18 years or older with relevant comorbidities-and had been unwell with confirmed COVID-19 for 5 days or fewer in the community. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 800 mg molnupiravir twice daily for 5 days plus usual care or usual care only. A secure, web-based system (Spinnaker) was used for randomisation, which was stratified by age (<50 years vs ≥50 years) and vaccination status (yes vs no). COVID-19 outcomes were tracked via a self-completed online daily diary for 28 days after randomisation. The primary outcome was all-cause hospitalisation or death within 28 days of randomisation, which was analysed using Bayesian models in all eligible participants who were randomly assigned. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 30448031.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 26 411 participants were randomly assigned, 12 821 to molnupiravir plus usual care, 12 962 to usual care alone, and 628 to other treatment groups (which will be reported separately). 12 529 participants from the molnupiravir plus usual care group, and 12 525 from the usual care group were included in the primary analysis population. The mean age of the population was 56·6 years (SD 12·6), and 24 290 (94%) of 25 708 participants had had at least three doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Hospitalisations or deaths were recorded in 105 (1%) of 12 529 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group versus 98 (1%) of 12 525 in the usual care group (adjusted odds ratio 1·06 [95% Bayesian credible interval 0·81-1·41]; probability of superiority 0·33). There was no evidence of treatment interaction between subgroups. Serious adverse events were recorded for 50 (0·4%) of 12 774 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and for 45 (0·3%) of 12 934 in the usual care group. None of these events were judged to be related to molnupiravir.

INTERPRETATION

Molnupiravir did not reduce the frequency of COVID-19-associated hospitalisations or death among high-risk vaccinated adults in the community.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Self-sampling to identify pathogens and inflammatory markers in patients with acute sore throat: Feasibility study

Introduction

Sore throat is a common reason for overuse of antibiotics. The value of inflammatory or biomarkers in throat swab or saliva samples in predicting benefit from antibiotics is unknown.

Methods

We used the ‘person-based approach’ to develop an online tool to support self-swabbing and recruited adults and children with sore throats through participating general practices and social media. Participants took bacterial and viral swabs and a saliva sponge swab and passive drool sample. Bacterial swabs were cultured for streptococcus (Group A, B, C, F and G). The viral swab and saliva samples were tested using a routine respiratory panel PCR and Covid-19 PCR testing. We used remaining viral swab and saliva sample volume for biomarker analysis using a panel of 13 biomarkers.

Results

We recruited 11 asymptomatic participants and 45 symptomatic participants. From 45 symptomatic participants, bacterial throat swab, viral throat swab, saliva sponge and saliva drool samples were returned by 41/45 (91.1%), 43/45 (95.6%), 43/45 (95.6%) and 43/45 (95.6%) participants respectively. Three saliva sponge and 6 saliva drool samples were of insufficient quantity. Two adult participants had positive bacterial swabs. Six participants had a virus detected from at least one sample (swab or saliva). All of the biomarkers assessed were detectable from all samples where there was sufficient volume for testing. For most biomarkers we found higher concentrations in the saliva samples. Due to low numbers, we were not able to compare biomarker concentrations in those who did and did not have a bacterial pathogen detected. We found no evidence of a difference between biomarker concentrations between the symptomatic and asymptomatic participants but the distributions were wide.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated that it is feasible for patients with sore throat to self-swab and provide saliva samples for pathogen and biomarker analysis. Typical bacterial and viral pathogens were detected but at low prevalence rates. Further work is needed to determine if measuring biomarkers using oropharyngeal samples can help to differentiate between viral and bacterial pathogens in patients classified as medium or high risk using clinical scores, in order to better guide antibiotic prescribing and reduce inappropriate prescriptions.

Cluster randomised controlled trial of screening for atrial fibrillation in people aged 70 years and over to reduce stroke: protocol for the pilot study for the SAFER trial

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia associated with 30% of strokes, as well as other cardiovascular disease, dementia and death. AF meets many criteria for screening, but there is limited evidence that AF screening reduces stroke. Consequently, no countries recommend national screening programmes for AF. The Screening for Atrial Fibrillation with ECG to Reduce stroke (SAFER) trial aims to determine whether screening for AF is effective at reducing risk of stroke. The aim of the pilot study is to assess feasibility of the main trial and inform implementation of screening and trial procedures.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

SAFER is planned to be a pragmatic randomised controlled trial (RCT) of over 100 000 participants aged 70 years and over, not on long-term anticoagulation therapy at baseline, with an average follow-up of 5 years. Participants are asked to record four traces every day for 3 weeks on a hand-held single-lead ECG device. Cardiologists remotely confirm episodes of AF identified by the device algorithm, and general practitioners follow-up with anticoagulation as appropriate. The pilot study is a cluster RCT in 36 UK general practices, randomised 2:1 control to intervention, recruiting approximately 12 600 participants. Pilot study outcomes include AF detection rate, anticoagulation uptake and other parameters to incorporate into sample size calculations for the main trial. Questionnaires sent to a sample of participants will assess impact of screening on psychological health. Process evaluation and qualitative studies will underpin implementation of screening during the main trial. An economic evaluation using the pilot data will confirm whether it is plausible that screening might be cost-effective.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The London-Central Research Ethics Committee (19/LO/1597) and Confidentiality Advisory Group (19/CAG/0226) provided ethical approval. Dissemination will be via publications, patient-friendly summaries, reports and engagement with the UK National Screening Committee.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN72104369.

Aspirin to target arterial events in chronic kidney disease (ATTACK): study protocol for a multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel group trial of low-dose aspirin vs. standard care for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in people with chronic kidney disease

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a very common long-term condition and powerful risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Low-dose aspirin is of proven benefit in the secondary prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in people with pre-existing CVD. However, in people without CVD, the rates of MI and stroke are much lower, and the benefits of aspirin in the primary prevention of CVD are largely balanced by an increased risk of bleeding.

People with CKD are at greatly increased risk of CVD and so the absolute benefits of aspirin are likely to be greater than in lower-risk groups, even if the relative benefits are the same. Post hoc evidence suggests the relative benefits may be greater in the CKD population but the risk of bleeding may also be higher. A definitive study of aspirin for primary prevention in this high-risk group, recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in 2014, has never been conducted. The question has global significance given the rising burden of CKD worldwide and the low cost of aspirin.

Methods

ATTACK is a pragmatic multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint adjudication superiority trial of aspirin 75 mg daily vs. standard care for the primary prevention of CVD in 25,210 people aged 18 years and over with CKD recruited from UK Primary Care.

Participants aged 18 years and over with CKD (GFR category G1-G4) will be identified in Primary Care and followed up using routinely collected data and annual questionnaires for an average of 5 years. The primary outcome is the time to first major vascular event (composite of non-fatal MI, non-fatal stroke and cardiovascular death [excluding confirmed intracranial haemorrhage and other fatal cardiovascular haemorrhage]). Deaths from other causes (including fatal bleeding) will be treated as competing events. The study will continue until 1827 major vascular events have occurred. The principal safety outcome is major intracranial and extracranial bleeding; this is hypothesised to be increased in those randomised to take aspirin. The key consideration is then whether and to what extent the benefits of aspirin from the expected reduction in CVD events exceed the risks of major bleeding.

Discussion

This will be the first definitive trial of aspirin for primary CVD prevention in CKD patients. The research will be of great interest to clinicians, guideline groups and policy-makers, in the UK and globally, particularly given the high and rising prevalence of CKD that is driven by population ageing and epidemics of obesity and diabetes. The low cost of aspirin means that a positive result would be of relevance to low- and middle-income countries and the impact in the developed world less diluted by any inequalities in health care access.

Trial registration

ISRCTN: ISRCTN40920200. EudraCT: 2018-000644-26. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03796156

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06132-z.

Cost-Effectiveness of Antihypertensive Deprescribing in Primary Care: a Markov Modelling Study Using Data From the OPTiMISE Trial

BACKGROUND

Deprescribing of antihypertensive medications for older patients with normal blood pressure is recommended by some clinical guidelines, where the potential harms of treatment may outweigh the benefits. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of this approach.

METHODS

A Markov patient-level simulation was undertaken to model the effect of withdrawing one antihypertensive compared with usual care, over a life-time horizon. Model population characteristics were estimated using data from the OPTiMISE antihypertensive deprescribing trial, and the effects of blood pressure changes on outcomes were derived from the literature. Health-related quality of life was modeled in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and presented as costs per QALY gained.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, medication reduction resulted in lower costs than usual care (mean difference £185), but also lower QALYs (mean difference 0.062) per patient over a life-time horizon. Usual care was cost-effective at £2975 per QALY gained (more costly, but more effective). Medication reduction resulted more heart failure and stroke/TIA events but fewer adverse events. Medication reduction may be the preferred strategy at a willingness-to-pay of £20 000/QALY, where the baseline absolute risk of serious drug-related adverse events was ≥7.7% a year (compared with 1.7% in the base-case).

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was uncertainty around many of the assumptions underpinning this model, these findings suggest that antihypertensive medication reduction should not be attempted in many older patients with controlled systolic blood pressure. For populations at high risk of adverse effects, deprescribing may be beneficial, but a targeted approach would be required in routine practice.

Horticultural therapy for general health in the older adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

With a pronounced and historically unprecedented tendency of population ageing, research on ageing and related disorders has been increasingly brought into focus. Horticultural therapy (HT), as an important role of social prescribing, has been an integrative for decades. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate HT for general health in older adults.

Methods

Electronic databases including PubMed, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL (EBSCO), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and the Wanfang database, grey literature databases and clinical trials registers were searched from inception to March 2021. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs (QRCTs) and the cohort studies about HT for adults aged over 60 were included in this study. Outcome measures were physical function, quality of life, BMI, mood tested by self-reported questionnaire and the expression of the immune cells. The study was registered under PROSPERO (CRD42019146184).

Results

Totally, fifteen studies (thirteen RCTs and two cohort studies) involving 1046 older participants were included. Meta-analysis showed that HT resulted in better quality of life (MD 2.09, 95% CI [1.33, 2.85], P<0. 01) and physical function (SMD 0.82, 95% [0.36, 1.29], P<0.01) compared with no-gardener; the similar findings showed in BMI (SMD -0.30, 95% [-0.57, -0.04], P = 0.02) and mood tested by self-reported questionnaire (SMD 2.80, 95% CI [1.82, 3.79], P<0. 01). And HT might be conducive on blood pressure and immunity, while all the evidence were moderate-quality judged by GRADE.

Conclusions

HT may improve physical function and quality of life in older adults, reduce BMI and enhance positive mood. A suitable duration of HT may be between 60 to 120 minutes per week lasting 1.5 to 12 months. However, it remains unclear as to what constitutes an optimal recommendation.

Effectiveness of Medicinal Plants for Glycaemic Control in Type 2 Diabetes: An Overview of Meta-Analyses of Clinical Trials

Aims: To rank the effectiveness of medicinal plants for glycaemic control in Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM).

Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Cochrane Central were searched in October 2020. We included meta-analyses of randomised controlled clinical trials measuring the effectiveness of medicinal plants on HbA1c and/or Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG) in patients with T2DM.

Results: Twenty five meta-analyses reported the effects of 18 plant-based remedies. Aloe vera leaf gel, Psyllium fibre and Fenugreek seeds had the largest effects on HbA1c: mean difference –0.99% [95% CI−1.75, −0.23], −0.97% [95% CI −1.94, −0.01] and −0.85% [95% CI −1.49, −0.22] respectively. Four other remedies reduced HbA1c by at least 0.5%: Nigellasativa, Astragalus membranaceus, and the traditional Chinese formulae Jinqi Jiangtang and Gegen Qinlian. No serious adverse effects were reported. Several other herbal medicines significantly reduced FPG. Tea and tea extracts (Camellia sinensis) were ineffective. However, in some trials duration of follow-up was insufficient to measure the full effect on HbA1c (<8 weeks). Many herbal remedies had not been evaluated in a meta-analysis.

Conclusion: Several medicinal plants appear to be as effective as conventional antidiabetic treatments for reducing HbA1c. Rigorous trials with at least 3 months’ follow-up are needed to ascertain the effects of promising plant-based preparations on diabetes.

Blood Pressure Changes Following Antihypertensive Medication Reduction, by Drug Class and Dose Chosen for Withdrawal: Exploratory Analysis of Data From the OPTiMISE Trial

Aims: Deprescribing of antihypertensive drugs is recommended for some older patients with polypharmacy, but there is little evidence to inform which drug (or dose) should be withdrawn. This study used data from the OPTiMISE trial to examine whether short-term outcomes of deprescribing vary by drug class and dose of medication withdrawn. Methods: The OPTiMISE trial included patients aged ≥80 years with controlled systolic blood pressure (SBP; <150 mmHg), receiving ≥2 antihypertensive medications. This study compared SBP control, mean change in SBP and frequency of adverse events after 12 weeks in participants stopping one medication vs. usual care, by drug class and equivalent dose of medication withdrawn. Equivalent dose was determined according to the defined daily dose (DDD) of each medication type. Drugs prescribed below the DDD were classed as low dose and those prescribed at ≥DDD were described as higher dose. Outcomes were examined by generalized linear mixed effects models. Results: A total of 569 participants were randomized, aged 85 ± 3 years with controlled blood pressure (mean 130/69 mmHg). Within patients prescribed calcium channel blockers, higher dose medications were more commonly selected for withdrawal (90 vs. 10%). In those prescribed beta-blockers, low dose medications were more commonly chosen (87 vs. 13%). Withdrawal of calcium channel blockers was associated with an increase in SBP (5 mmHg, 95%CI 0-10 mmHg) and reduced SBP control (adjusted RR 0.89, 95%CI 0.80-0.998) compared to usual care. In contrast, withdrawal of beta-blockers was associated with no change in SBP (-4 mmHg, 95%CI -10 to 2 mmHg) and no difference in SBP control (adjusted RR 1.15, 95%CI 0.96-1.37). Similarly, withdrawal of higher dose medications was associated with an increase in SBP but no change in BP control. Withdrawal of lower dose medications was not associated with a difference in SBP or SBP control. There was no association between withdrawal of specific drug classes and adverse events. Conclusion: These exploratory data suggest withdrawal of higher dose calcium channel blockers should be avoided if the goal is to maintain BP control. However, low dose beta-blockers may be removed with little impact on blood pressure over 12-weeks of follow-up. Larger studies are needed to confirm these associations.

Relationships Between Age, Frailty, Length of Care Home Residence and Biomarkers of Immunity and Inflammation in Older Care Home Residents in the United Kingdom

Aging is associated with changes to the immune system, collectively termed immunosenescence and inflammageing. However, the relationships among age, frailty, and immune parameters in older people resident in care homes are not well described. We assessed immune and inflammatory parameters in 184 United Kingdom care home residents aged over 65 years and how they relate to age, frailty index, and length of care home residence. Linear regression was used to identify the independent contribution of age, frailty, and length of care home residence to the various immune parameters as dependent variables. Participants had a mean age (±SD) of 85.3 ± 7.5 years, had been residing in the care home for a mean (±SD) of 1.9 ± 2.2 years at the time of study commencement, and 40.7% were severely frail. Length of care home residence and frailty index were correlated but age and frailty index and age and length of care home residence were not significantly correlated. All components of the full blood count, apart from total lymphocytes, were within the reference range; 31% of participants had blood lymphocyte numbers below the lower value of the reference range. Among the components of the full blood count, platelet numbers were positively associated with frailty index. Amongst plasma inflammatory markers, C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra), soluble E-selectin and interferon gamma-induced protein 10 (IP-10) were positively associated with frailty. Plasma soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (sVCAM-1), IP-10 and tumor necrosis factor receptor II (TNFRII) were positively associated with age. Plasma monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 was positively associated with length of care home residence. Frailty was an independent predictor of platelet numbers, plasma CRP, IL-1ra, IP-10, and sE-selectin. Age was an independent predictor of activated monocytes and plasma IP-10, TNFRII and sVCAM-1. Length of care home residence was an independent predictor of plasma MCP-1. This study concludes that there are independent links between increased frailty and inflammation and between increased age and inflammation amongst older people resident in care homes in the United Kingdom. Since, inflammation is known to contribute to morbidity and mortality in older people, the causes and consequences of inflammation in this population should be further explored.

Combination of the Probiotics Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus GG and Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis, BB-12 Has Limited Effect on Biomarkers of Immunity and Inflammation in Older People Resident in Care Homes: Results From the Probiotics to Reduce Infections iN CarE home reSidentS Randomized, Controlled Trial

Aging is associated with a decline in many components of the immune system (immunosenescence). Probiotics may improve the immune response in older people. The objective was to determine the effect of the combination of two probiotic organisms [Lacticaseibacillus (previously known as Lactobacillus) rhamnosus GG (LGG) and Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis, BB-12 (BB-12)] on a range of immune biomarkers measured in the blood of older people resident in care homes in the UK. In a randomized controlled trial, older people [aged 67-97 (mean 86) years] resident in care homes received the combination of LGG+BB-12 (1.3-1.6 × 10⁹ CFU per day) or placebo for up to 12 months. Full blood count, blood immune cell phenotypes, plasma immune mediator concentrations, phagocytosis, and blood culture responses to immune stimulation were all measured. Response to seasonal influenza vaccination was measured in a subset of participants. Paired samples (i.e., before and after intervention) were available for 30 participants per group. LGG and BB-12 were more likely to be present in feces in the probiotic group and were present at higher numbers. There was no significant effect of the probiotics on components of the full blood count, blood immune cell phenotypes, plasma immune mediator concentrations, phagocytosis by neutrophils and monocytes, and blood culture responses to immune stimulation. There was an indication that the probiotics improved the response to seasonal influenza vaccination with significantly (p = 0.04) higher seroconversion to the A/Michigan/2015 vaccine strain in the probiotic group than in the placebo group (47 vs. 15%).

Effect of Probiotic Use on Antibiotic Administration Among Care Home Residents: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Probiotics are frequently used by residents in care homes (residential homes or nursing homes that provide residents with 24-hour support for personal care or nursing care), although the evidence on whether probiotics prevent infections and reduce antibiotic use in these settings is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a daily oral probiotic combination of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG and Bifidobacterium animalis subsp lactis BB-12 compared with placebo reduces antibiotic administration in care home residents.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial of 310 care home residents, aged 65 years and older, recruited from 23 care homes in the United Kingdom between December 2016 and May 2018, with last follow-up on October 31, 2018.

INTERVENTIONS

Study participants were randomized to receive a daily capsule containing a probiotic combination of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG and Bifidobacterium animalis subsp lactis BB-12 (total cell count per capsule, 1.3 × 1010 to 1.6 × 1010) (n = 155), or daily matched placebo (n = 155), for up to 1 year.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was cumulative antibiotic administration days for all-cause infections measured from randomization for up to 1 year.

RESULTS

Among 310 randomized care home residents (mean age, 85.3 years; 66.8% women), 195 (62.9%) remained alive and completed the trial. Participant diary data (daily data including study product use, antibiotic administration, and signs of infection) were available for 98.7% randomized to the probiotic group and 97.4% randomized to placebo. Care home residents randomized to the probiotic group had a mean of 12.9 cumulative systemic antibiotic administration days (95% CI, 0 to 18.05), and residents randomized to placebo had a mean of 12.0 days (95% CI, 0 to 16.95) (absolute difference, 0.9 days [95% CI, -3.25 to 5.05]; adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.79 to 1.63]; P = .50). A total of 120 care home residents experienced 283 adverse events (150 adverse events in the probiotic group and 133 in the placebo group). Hospitalizations accounted for 94 of the events in probiotic group and 78 events in the placebo group, and deaths accounted for 33 of the events in the probiotic group and 32 of the events in the placebo group.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among care home residents in the United Kingdom, a daily dose of a probiotic combination of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG and Bifidobacterium animalis subsp lactis BB-12 did not significantly reduce antibiotic administration for all-cause infections. These findings do not support the use of probiotics in this setting.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Identifier:16392920.

Effect of Antihypertensive Medication Reduction vs Usual Care on Short-term Blood Pressure Control in Patients With Hypertension Aged 80 Years and Older: The OPTIMISE Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Deprescribing of antihypertensive medications is recommended for some older patients with polypharmacy and multimorbidity when the benefits of continued treatment may not outweigh the harms.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish whether antihypertensive medication reduction is possible without significant changes in systolic blood pressure control or adverse events during 12-week follow-up.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Optimising Treatment for Mild Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly (OPTIMISE) study was a randomized, unblinded, noninferiority trial conducted in 69 primary care sites in England. Participants, whose primary care physician considered them appropriate for medication reduction, were aged 80 years and older, had systolic blood pressure lower than 150 mm Hg, and were receiving at least 2 antihypertensive medications were included. Participants enrolled between April 2017 and September 2018 and underwent follow-up until January 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomized (1:1 ratio) to a strategy of antihypertensive medication reduction (removal of 1 drug [intervention], n = 282) or usual care (control, n = 287), in which no medication changes were mandated.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was systolic blood pressure lower than 150 mm Hg at 12-week follow-up. The prespecified noninferiority margin was a relative risk (RR) of 0.90. Secondary outcomes included the proportion of participants maintaining medication reduction and differences in blood pressure, frailty, quality of life, adverse effects, and serious adverse events.

RESULTS

Among 569 patients randomized (mean age, 84.8 years; 276 [48.5%] women; median of 2 antihypertensive medications prescribed at baseline), 534 (93.8%) completed the trial. Overall, 229 (86.4%) patients in the intervention group and 236 (87.7%) patients in the control group had a systolic blood pressure lower than 150 mm Hg at 12 weeks (adjusted RR, 0.98 [97.5% 1-sided CI, 0.92 to ∞]). Of 7 prespecified secondary end points, 5 showed no significant difference. Medication reduction was sustained in 187 (66.3%) participants at 12 weeks. Mean change in systolic blood pressure was 3.4 mm Hg (95% CI, 1.1 to 5.8 mm Hg) higher in the intervention group compared with the control group. Twelve (4.3%) participants in the intervention group and 7 (2.4%) in the control group reported at least 1 serious adverse event (adjusted RR, 1.72 [95% CI, 0.7 to 4.3]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among older patients treated with multiple antihypertensive medications, a strategy of medication reduction, compared with usual care, was noninferior with regard to systolic blood pressure control at 12 weeks. The findings suggest antihypertensive medication reduction in some older patients with hypertension is not associated with substantial change in blood pressure control, although further research is needed to understand long-term clinical outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EudraCT Identifier: 2016-004236-38; ISRCTN identifier: 97503221.

Patients' views about screening for atrial fibrillation (AF): a qualitative study in primary care

OBJECTIVES

There has been increased interest in screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) with commissioned pilot schemes, ongoing large clinical trials and the emergence of inexpensive consumer single-lead ECG devices that can be used to detect AF. This qualitative study aimed to explore patients' views and understanding of AF and AF screening to determine acceptability and inform future recommendations.

SETTING

A single primary care practice in Hampshire, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

15 participants (11 female) were interviewed from primary care who had taken part in an AF screening trial. A semistructured interview guide was used flexibly to enable the interviewer to explore any relevant topics raised by the participants. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Participants generally had an incomplete understanding of AF and conflated it with other heart problems or with raised blood pressure. With regards to potential drawbacks from screening, some participants considered anxiety and the cost of implementation, but none acknowledged potential harms associated with screening such as side effects of anticoagulation treatment or the risk of further investigations. The screening was generally well accepted, and participants were generally in favour of engaging with prolonged screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights that there may be poor understanding (of both the nature of AF and potential negatives of screening) among patients who have been screened for AF. Further work is required to determine if resources including decision aids can address this important knowledge gap and improve clinical informed consent for AF screening.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN 17495003.

Acute Cough Due to Acute Bronchitis in Immunocompetent Adult Outpatients: CHEST Expert Panel Report

BACKGROUND

Evidence for the diagnosis and management of cough due to acute bronchitis in immunocompetent adult outpatients was reviewed as an update to the 2006 "Chronic Cough Due to Acute Bronchitis: American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) Evidence-Based Clinical Practice Guidelines."

METHODS

Acute bronchitis was defined as an acute lower respiratory tract infection manifested predominantly by cough with or without sputum production, lasting no more than 3 weeks with no clinical or any recent radiographic evidence to suggest an alternative explanation. Two clinical population, intervention, comparison, outcome questions were addressed by systematic review in July 2017: (1) the role of investigations beyond the clinical assessment of patients presenting with suspected acute bronchitis, and (2) the efficacy and safety of prescribing medication for cough in acute bronchitis. An updated search was undertaken in May 2018.

RESULTS

No eligible studies relevant to the first question were identified. For the second question, only one relevant study met eligibility criteria. This study found no difference in number of days with cough between patients treated with an antibiotic or an oral nonsteroidal antiinflammatory agent compared with placebo. Clinical suggestions and research recommendations were made based on the consensus opinion of the CHEST Expert Cough Panel.

CONCLUSIONS

The panelists suggested that no routine investigations be ordered and no routine medications be prescribed in immunocompetent adult outpatients first presenting with cough due to suspected acute bronchitis, until such investigations and treatments have been shown to be safe and effective at making cough less severe or resolve sooner. If the cough due to suspected acute bronchitis persists or worsens, a reassessment and consideration of targeted investigations should be considered.

Machine learning detection of Atrial Fibrillation using wearable technology

BACKGROUND

Atrial Fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia worldwide with a global age adjusted prevalence of 0.5% in 2010. Anticoagulation treatment using warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants is effective in reducing the risk of AF-related stroke by approximately two-thirds and can provide a 10% reduction in overall mortality. There has been increased interest in detecting AF due to its increased incidence and the possibility to prevent AF-related strokes. Inexpensive consumer devices which measure the ECG may have the potential to accurately detect AF but do not generally incorporate diagnostic algorithms. Machine learning algorithms have the potential to improve patient outcomes particularly where diagnoses are made from large volumes or complex patterns of data such as in AF.

METHODS

We designed a novel AF detection algorithm using a de-correlated Lorenz plot of 60 consecutive RR intervals. In order to reduce the volume of data, the resulting images were compressed using a wavelet transformation (JPEG200 algorithm) and the compressed images were used as input data to a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. We used the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)-Beth Israel Hospital (BIH) Atrial Fibrillation database and the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database as training data and verified the algorithm performance using RR intervals collected using an inexpensive consumer heart rate monitor device (Polar-H7) in a case-control study.

RESULTS

The SVM algorithm yielded excellent discrimination in the training data with a sensitivity of 99.2% and a specificity of 99.5% for AF. In the validation data, the SVM algorithm correctly identified AF in 79/79 cases; sensitivity 100% (95% CI 95.4%-100%) and non-AF in 328/336 cases; specificity 97.6% (95% CI 95.4%-99.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

An inexpensive wearable heart rate monitor and machine learning algorithm can be used to detect AF with very high accuracy and has the capability to transmit ECG data which could be used to confirm AF. It could potentially be used for intermittent screening or continuously for prolonged periods to detect paroxysmal AF. Further work could lead to cost-effective and accurate estimation of AF burden and improved risk stratification in AF.

P2649Do these data apply to me? Examining the applicability of trials assessing strategies for optimal management of blood pressure to older patients in UK primary care

Background

There is debate as to what extent older patients (≥80 years) should be treated for high blood pressure. Existing trials show that blood pressure lowering in this population is effective at preventing stroke and heart failure but also results in an increased risk of adverse events. However, it has been suggested that these studies enrolled healthier patients, who are less representative of the general population and more likely to benefit from treatment.

Purpose

This study aimed to compare the characteristics of patients eligible for three blood pressure management trials and assess the likelihood of eligibility for each trial based on common characteristics of older patients.

Methods

Cross-sectional study of data extracted from the medical records of 15,376 patients aged ≥80 years, registered to 24 general practices in the south of England. Anonymised patient data relating to the eligibility criteria for two previous medication intensification trials (HYVET, SPRINT) and one medication reduction trial (OPTiMISE) were extracted. Patients eligible for each trial were defined according to criteria specified in each trial protocol. Descriptive statistics were used to define the characteristics of each trial population. A logistic regression model was constructed to estimate predictors of eligibility for each trial, with practice included as a random effect.

Results

Approximately 268 (1.7%), 5,290 (34.4%) and 3,940 (25.6%) patients were eligible for HYVET, SPRINT and OPTiMISE trials respectively. There was little overlap in eligibility for each trial (1.0% were eligible for HYVET and SPRINT; 0% were eligible for HYVET and OPTiMISE; 10.2% were eligible for SPRINT and OPTiMISE). Patients eligible for OPTiMISE were comparable to the general population in terms of frailty (eFI 0.12 [OPTiMISE] vs 0.11 [general population]), but had more morbidities (4 vs 3) and cardiovascular medications prescribed (4 vs 2). Patients in HYVET and SPRINT were less frail, multi-morbid and prescribed less cardiovascular medications. Overall, increasing frailty and a history of cardiovascular disease reduced the likelihood of being eligible for any trial.

Conclusions

Patients eligible for OPTiMISE appear to best represent the population aged ≥80 years attending UK primary care. Increasing frailty and/or multi-morbidity reduce the likelihood of eligibility for all three blood pressure trials. Caution should be exercised when applying the results from randomised controlled trials to management of blood pressure in frail and multi-morbid patients.

Acknowledgement/Funding

This study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) SPCR and Oxford CLAHRC

Protocol for a double-blind placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of probiotics in reducing antibiotics for infection in care home residents: the Probiotics to Reduce Infections iN CarE home reSidentS (PRINCESS) trial

INTRODUCTION

Care home residents are at increased risk of infections and antibiotic prescription. Reduced antibiotic use from fewer infections would improve quality of life. The Probiotics to Reduce Infections iN CarE home reSidentS (PRINCESS) trial aims to determine the efficacy and investigate mechanisms of daily probiotics on antibiotic use and incidence of infections in care home residents.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PRINCESS is a double-blind, individually randomised, placebo-controlled trial that will assess the effect of a daily oral probiotic combination of Lactobacillus rhamnosus, GG (LGG) and Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis, BB-12 (BB-12) on cumulative antibiotic administration days (CAADs) (primary outcome) for infection in up to 330 care home residents aged ≥65 years over up to 12 months. Secondary outcomes include: Infection: Total number of days of antibiotic administration for each infection type (respiratory tract infection, urinary tract infection, gastrointestinal infection, unexplained fever and other); number, site, duration of infection; estimation of incidence and duration of diarrhoea and antibiotic-associated diarrhoea; Stool microbiology: Clostridium difficile infection; Gram-negative Enterobacteriaceae and vancomycin-resistant enterococci; LGG and BB-12. Oral microbiology: Candida spp. Health and well-being: Self and/or proxy health-related quality of life EQ5D (5 L); self-and/or proxy-reported ICEpop CAPability measure for older people. Hospitalisations: number and duration of all-cause hospital stays. Mortality: deaths. Mechanistic immunology outcomes: influenza vaccine efficacy (haemagglutination inhibition assay and antibody titres); full blood count and immune cell phenotypes, plasma cytokines and chemokines; cytokine and chemokine response in whole blood stimulated ex vivo by toll-like receptor 2 and 4 agonists; monocyte and neutrophil phagocytosis of Escherichia coli; serum vitamin D.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is from the Wales Research Ethics Committee 3. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conferences; results will be of interest to patient and policy stakeholders.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN16392920; Pre-results.

Predictors of Adverse Outcomes in Uncomplicated Lower Respiratory Tract Infections

PURPOSE

Presentation with acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in primary care is common. The aim of this study was to help clinicians treat patients presenting with LRTI in primary care by identifying those at risk of serious adverse outcomes (death, admission, late-onset pneumonia).

METHODS

In a prospective cohort study of patients presenting with LRTI symptoms, patient characteristics and clinical findings were recorded and adverse events identified over 30 days by chart review. Multivariable logistic regression analyses identified predictors of adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

Participants were recruited from 522 UK practices in 2009-2013. The analysis was restricted to the 28,846 adult patients not referred immediately to the hospital. Serious adverse outcomes occurred in 325/28,846 (1.1%). Eight factors were independently predictive; these characterized symptom severity (absence of coryza, fever, chest pain, and clinician-assessed severity), patient vulnerability (age >65 years, comorbidity), and physiological impact (oxygen saturation <95%, low blood pressure). In aggregate, the 8 features had moderate predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.71, 95% CI, 0.68-0.74); the 4% of patients with ≥5 features had an approximately 1 in 17 (5.7%) risk of serious adverse outcomes, the 35% with 3 or 4 features had an intermediate risk (1 in 50, 2.0%), and the 61% with ≤2 features had a low (1 in 200, 0.5%) risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In routine practice most patients presenting with LRTI in primary care can be identified as at intermediate or low risk of serious outcome.

Effectiveness of the probiotic Streptococcus salivarius K12 for the treatment and/or prevention of sore throat: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Sore throat resulting from pharyngotonsillitis is one of the commonest reasons for primary care consultation and inappropriate antibiotic prescription and finding effective alternative treatments is important.

OBJECTIVES

To review the evidence for using the probiotic Streptococcus salivarius K12 (SsK12) for the prevention or treatment of pharyngotonsillitis.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane Library.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

PARTICIPANTS

Adults or children.

INTERVENTIONS

SsK12 as active treatment or prophylaxis, against pharyngotonsillitis.

METHODS

Literature search.

RESULTS

Four articles were identified (1846 participants). All were deemed to be of poor quality using the Cochrane risk-of-bias assessment. Two trials studied SsK12 prophylaxis for streptococcal pharyngitis (children without history of recurrence). One compared daily administration of SsK12 to no treatment over 6 months (n = 222, age 33-45 months), reporting significantly lower incidence in the SsK12 group (16.2% vs. 48.6%, p < 0.01), whereas another placebo-controlled RCT over four school terms (n = 1314, 5-14 years) found no significant difference (7.8% vs. 8.8%, p 0.34) with SsK12 (administered on school days). Another trial found daily SsK12 to significantly protect children (n = 250, 6-7 years) against chronic adenoiditis exacerbation over 3 months compared to no treatment (71.7% vs. 100%, p < 0.0001). The one placebo-controlled RCT in adults that studied the use of SsK12 for acute pharyngotonsillitis (concurrently with penicillin) showed no significant benefit. In all trials, SsK12 was safe and well tolerated.

CONCLUSIONS

SsK12 appears safe and well tolerated. However, further RCTs are required to establish its role as a prophylactic therapy, particularly among patients experiencing frequent exacerbations of pharyngitis. In the acute setting, SsK12 is unlikely to be effective if given concurrently with antibiotics; however, further RCTs should establish its role as an alternative to antibiotics in nonsevere cases or when prescribed after antibiotic therapy for the prevention of disease recurrence and/or secondary infection.

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation Using Economical and Accurate Technology (From the SAFETY Study)

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is estimated at more than 3% in the adult population and there has been increased interest in screening for AF. In the SAFETY trial we chose to evaluate if inexpensive, wearable, consumer electrocardiography (ECG) sensing devices (Polar-H7 [PH7] and Firstbeat Bodyguard 2 [BG2]), could be used to detect AF accurately. We undertook a case-control study of 418 participants aged >65 (82 with AF and/or flutter at the study visit and 336 without) attending 3 general practice surgeries in Hampshire, UK for a single screening visit. The PH7 and BG2 devices were tested alongside 2 established AF detection devices (AliveCor and WatchBP) in random order and the diagnosis of AF was confirmed by 12-Lead ECG interpreted by a panel of cardiologists. The sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] range), specificity (95% CI range), and overall accuracy (95% CI range) of the 4 devices were: AliveCor: 87.8% (78.7% to 94.0%), 98.8% (97.0% to 99.7%), 96.7% (94.4% to 98.2%); WatchBP: 96.3% (89.7% to 99.2%), 93.5% (90.3% to 95.9%), 94.0% (91.3% to 96.1%): PH7: 96.3% (89.7% to 99.2%), 98.2% (96.2% to 99.3%), 97.9% (96.0% to 99.0%). BG2: 96.3% (89.7% to 99.2%), 98.5% (96.6% to 99.5%), 98.1% (96.3% to 99.2%). The PH7 and BG2 devices were highly reliable (the devices acquired sufficient data and obtained a diagnostic result in all but 1 participant on the first attempt). In conclusion, inexpensive, consumer heart rate monitoring devices (PH7 and BG2) can be used to detect AF accurately with sensitivity and specificity >95%. The consumer devices performed as well or better than WatchBP and AliveCor and have the capability to store or transmit ECG data which could be used to confirm AF.

OPtimising Treatment for MIld Systolic hypertension in the Elderly (OPTiMISE): protocol for a randomised controlled non-inferiority trial

INTRODUCTION

Recent evidence suggests that larger blood pressure reductions and multiple antihypertensive drugs may be harmful in older people, particularly frail individuals with polypharmacy and multimorbidity. However, there is a lack of evidence to support deprescribing of antihypertensives, which limits the practice of medication reduction in routine clinical care. The aim of this trial is to examine whether antihypertensive medication reduction is possible in older patients without significant changes in blood pressure control at follow-up.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This trial will use a primary care-based, open-label, randomised controlled trial design. A total of 540 participants will be recruited, aged ≥80 years, with systolic blood pressure <150 mm Hg and receiving ≥2 antihypertensive medications. Participants will have no compelling indication for medication continuation and will be considered to potentially benefit from medication reduction due to existing polypharmacy, comorbidity and frailty. Following a baseline appointment, individuals will be randomised to a strategy of medication reduction (intervention) with optional self-monitoring or usual care (control). Those in the intervention group will have one antihypertensive medication stopped. The primary outcome will be to determine if a reduction in medication can achieve a proportion of participants with clinically safe blood pressure levels at 12-week follow-up (defined as a systolic blood pressure <150 mm Hg), which is non-inferior (within 10%) to that achieved by the usual care group. Qualitative interviews will be used to understand the barriers and facilitators to medication reduction. The study will use economic modelling to predict the long-term effects of any observed changes in blood pressure and quality of life.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol, informed consent form, participant information sheet and all other participant facing material have been approved by the Research Ethics Committee (South Central-Oxford A; ref 16/SC/0628), Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (ref 21584/0371/001-0001), host institution(s) and Health Research Authority. All research outputs will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

EudraCT 2016-004236-38; ISRCTN97503221; Pre-results.

From substance to process: A meta-ethnographic review of how healthcare professionals and patients understand placebos and their effects in primary care

Research suggests that a 'placebo' can improve conditions common in primary care including pain, depression and irritable bowel syndrome. However, disagreement persists over the definition and clinical relevance of placebo treatments. We conducted a meta-ethnographic, mixed-research systematic review to explore how healthcare professionals and patients understand placebos and their effects in primary care. We conducted systematic literature searches of five databases - augmented by reference chaining, key author searches and expert opinion - related to views on placebos, placebo effects and placebo use in primary care. From a total of 34 eligible quantitative, qualitative and mixed-methods articles reporting findings from 28 studies, 21 were related to healthcare professionals' views, 11 were related to patients' views and two were related to both groups. In the studies under review, healthcare professionals reported using placebos at markedly different frequencies. This was highly influenced by how placebos were defined in the studies. Both healthcare professionals and patients predominantly defined placebos as material substances such as 'inert' pills, despite this definition being inconsistent with current scientific thinking. However, healthcare professionals also, but less prevalently, defined placebos in a different way: as contextual processes. This better concurs with modern placebo definitions, which focus on context, ritual, meaning and enactivism. However, given the enduring ubiquity of substance definitions, for both healthcare professionals and patients, we question the practical, clinical validity of stretching the term 'placebo' towards its modern iteration. To produce 'placebo effects', therefore, primary healthcare professionals may be better off abandoning placebo terminology altogether.

Predictors of pneumonia in lower respiratory tract infections: 3C prospective cough complication cohort study

The aim was to aid diagnosis of pneumonia in those presenting with lower respiratory tract symptoms in routine primary care.

A cohort of 28 883 adult patients with acute cough attributed to lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) was recruited from 5222 UK practices in 2009–13. Symptoms, signs and treatment were recorded at presentation and subsequent events followed-up for 30 days by chart review. The predictive value of patient characteristics, presenting symptoms and clinical findings for the diagnosis of pneumonia in the first 7 days was established.

Of the 720 out of 28 883 (2.5.%) radiographed within 1 week of the index consultation, 115 (16.0%; 0.40% of 28 883) were assigned a definite or probable pneumonia diagnosis. The significant independent predictors of radiograph-confirmed pneumonia were temperature >37.8°C (RR 2.6; 95% CI 1.5–4.8), crackles on auscultation (RR 1.8; 1.1–3.0), oxygen saturation <95% (RR 1.7; 1.0–3.1) and pulse >100·min^–1 (RR 1.9; 1.1–3.2). Most patients with pneumonia (99/115, 86.1%) exhibited at least one of these four clinical signs; the positive predictive value of having at least one of these signs was 20.2% (95% CI 17.3–23.1).

In routine practice, radiograph-confirmed pneumonia as a short-term complication of LRTI is very uncommon (one in 270). Pulse oximetry may aid the diagnosis of pneumonia in this setting.

Pulse oximetry probably has a role in the diagnosis of pneumonia in the communityhttp://ow.ly/QpWc30fVM2j

Views of oral antibiotics and advice seeking about acne: a qualitative study of online discussion forums

BACKGROUND

Acne vulgaris is common and can significantly impair quality of life, yet little is known about patients' understanding of acne and its treatments. Oral antibiotics are widely used for acne despite concerns about antibiotic resistance. People are increasingly turning to online discussion forums for advice, and information on these sites may influence health beliefs and treatment adherence.

OBJECTIVES

To explore understandings about the use of oral antibiotics for acne and advice shared among messages posted on online forums.

METHODS

We systematically searched for online forums and identified four where acne was frequently discussed. Discussion threads relating to oral antibiotics were analysed thematically.

RESULTS

We extracted 136 pages of data comprising 65 discussions among 294 participants. We found a wide range of perceptions around effectiveness of antibiotics for acne and concerns about adverse effects. The delayed onset of action of antibiotics was a source of frustration and compounded dissatisfaction with healthcare providers, who were perceived by people as 'fobbing them off' with prolonged courses of ineffective treatment. Advice ranged from when to ask for or insist on referral to use of costly cleansers. Forum posts related to a wide range of severities, from 'spots' to severe acne, which may make it confusing for users to assess appropriateness of information.

CONCLUSIONS

Online forums offer opinions that could confuse patients, or lead to early abandonment of treatments, challenging consultations and patient dissatisfaction. Users expressed frustration about the delayed onset of action of antibiotics for acne, perceptions of only temporary effectiveness and adverse effects.

Antibiotic prescription strategies and adverse outcome for uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections: prospective cough complication cohort (3C) study

Objective To assess the impact on adverse outcomes of different antibiotic prescribing strategies for lower respiratory tract infections in people aged 16 years or more.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting UK general practice.Participants 28 883 patients with lower respiratory tract infection; symptoms, signs, and antibiotic prescribing strategies were recorded at the index consultation.Main outcome measures The main outcomes were reconsultation with symptoms of lower respiratory tract infection in the 30 days after the index consultation, hospital admission, or death. Multivariable analysis controlled for an extensive list of variables related to the propensity to prescribe antibiotics and for clustering by doctor.Results Of the 28 883 participants, 104 (0.4%) were referred to hospital for radiographic investigation or admission, or both on the day of the index consultation, or were admitted with cancer. Of the remaining 28 779, subsequent hospital admission or death occurred in 26/7332 (0.3%) after no antibiotic prescription, 156/17 628 (0.9%) after prescription for immediate antibiotics, and 14/3819 (0.4%) after a prescription for delayed antibiotics. Multivariable analysis documented no reduction in hospital admission and death after immediate antibiotics (multivariable risk ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.81, P=0.84) and a non-significant reduction with delayed antibiotics (0.81, 0.41 to 1.64, P=0.61). Reconsultation for new, worsening, or non-resolving symptoms was common (1443/7332 (19.7%), 4455/17 628 (25.3%), and 538/3819 (14.1%), respectively) and was significantly reduced by delayed antibiotics (multivariable risk ratio 0.64, 0.57 to 0.72, P<0.001) but not by immediate antibiotics (0.98, 0.90 to 1.07, P=0.66).Conclusion Prescribing immediate antibiotics may not reduce subsequent hospital admission or death for young people and adults with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infection, and such events are uncommon. If clinicians are considering antibiotics, a delayed prescription may be preferable since it is associated with a reduced number of reconsultations for worsening illness.

Mulberry-extract improves glucose tolerance and decreases insulin concentrations in normoglycaemic adults: Results of a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled study

BACKGROUND

High sugar and refined carbohydrate intake is associated with weight gain, increased incidence of diabetes and is linked with increased cardiovascular mortality. Reducing the health impact of poor quality carbohydrate intake is a public health priority. Reducose, a proprietary mulberry leaf extract (ME), may reduce blood glucose responses following dietary carbohydrate intake by reducing absorption of glucose from the gut.

METHODS

A double-blind, randomised, repeat measure, phase 2 crossover design was used to study the glycaemic and insulinaemic response to one reference product and three test products at the Functional Food Centre, Oxford Brooks University, UK. Participants; 37 adults aged 19-59 years with a BMI ≥ 20kg/m2 and ≤ 30kg/m2. The objective was to determine the effect of three doses of mulberry-extract (Reducose) versus placebo on blood glucose and insulin responses when co-administered with 50g maltodextrin in normoglycaemic healthy adults. We also report the gastrointestinal tolerability of the mulberry extract.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven participants completed the study: The difference in the positive Incremental Area Under the Curve (pIAUC) (glucose (mmol / L x h)) for half, normal and double dose ME compared with placebo was -6.1% (-18.2%, 5.9%; p = 0.316), -14.0% (-26.0%, -2.0%; p = 0.022) and -22.0% (-33.9%, -10.0%; p<0.001) respectively. The difference in the pIAUC (insulin (mIU / L x h)) for half, normal and double dose ME compared with placebo was -9.7% (-25.8%, 6.3%; p = 0.234), -23.8% (-39.9%, -7.8%; p = 0.004) and -24.7% (-40.8%, -8.6%; p = 0.003) respectively. There were no statistically significant differences between any of the 4 groups in the odds of experiencing one or more gastrointestinal symptoms (nausea, abdominal cramping, distension or flatulence).

CONCLUSIONS

Mulberry leaf extract significantly reduces total blood glucose rise after ingestion of maltodextrin over 120 minutes. The pattern of effect demonstrates a classical dose response curve with significant effects over placebo. Importantly, total insulin rises were also significantly suppressed over the same time-period. There were no statistically significant differences between any of the treatment groups (including placebo) in the odds of experiencing one or more gastrointestinal symptoms. Mulberry extract may have multiple modes of action and further studies are necessary to evaluate ME as a potential target for the prevention of type 2 diabetes and the regulation of dysglycaemia.

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation using Economical and accurate TechnologY (SAFETY)-a pilot study

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a cause of stroke and a marker of atherosclerosis and of all patients with stroke, around 17% have AF. The screening and treatment of AF could prevent about 12% of all strokes. Several relatively low-cost devices with good accuracy now exist which can detect AF including WatchBP and AliveCor. However, they can only measure the ECG or pulse over short time periods. Inexpensive devices such as heart rate monitors, which are widely available, can measure heart rate for prolonged periods and may have potential in screening for AF. This study aims to determine the accuracy of AliveCor and WatchBP along with a bespoke algorithm using a heart rate monitor belt (Polar H7) and a wearable RR interval recorder (Firstbeat Bodyguard 2) for detecting AF during a single screening visit in primary care patients.

METHODS/ANALYSIS

A multicentre case-control diagnostic study comparing the four different devices for the detection of AF with a reference standard consisting of a 12-lead ECG in GP surgeries across Hampshire, UK. We aim to recruit 92 participants with AF and 329 without AF aged 65 years and over. We will ask participants to rate comfort and overall impression for each device. We will collect qualitative data from participants capturing their experience of using wearable devices in order to evaluate acceptability. We will collect data from GPs to determine their views on AF screening.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol was approved by the London-City & East Research Ethics Committee in June 2016. The findings of the trial will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, national and international conference presentations and the Atrial Fibrillation Association, UK.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN17495003, Pre-results.

Mulberry extract to modULate Blood glucosE Responses in noRmoglYcaemic adults (MULBERRY): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Worldwide sugar consumption has tripled during the last fifty years. High sugar intake is associated with weight gain and increased incidence of diabetes and has been linked with increased cardiovascular mortality. Reducing the health impact of dietary sugar and poor quality carbohydrate intake is a public health priority. IminoNorm®, a proprietary mulberry leaf extract (ME), may reduce blood glucose responses following dietary sugar and carbohydrate intake by reducing absorption of glucose from the gut. Previous research has shown that ME can reduce blood glucose and improve insulin responses in healthy subjects and also in subjects with raised fasting blood glucose levels. Mulberry leaf has an excellent safety profile. This pilot study will test a novel, safe, water soluble product in normoglycaemic adults in the UK to determine if it can reduce glucose absorption without increasing plasma insulin concentration.

METHODS/DESIGN

The trial will be a double-blind, individually randomised, four-arm single-dose crossover design to test the effect of three doses of ME in order to determine efficacy, dose response relationship and gastrointestinal side effects with respect to placebo. A total of 40 subjects will participate in this study and attend for four visits receiving each of the four interventions in random order.

DISCUSSION

We aim to test the evidence that mulberry leaf extract can reduce blood glucose without a disproportionate increase in blood insulin responses in healthy individuals in a high-quality research study based in the UK. It is hoped that this will lead to further randomised controlled trials and an effective dietary supplement to lower blood glucose concentrations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN

ISRCTN14597438 (21 April 2015).

Comparison of the 80-lead body surface map to physician and to 12-lead electrocardiogram in detection of acute myocardial infarction

Diagnosis of non-ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction (AMI) by a 12-lead electrocardiogram has poor sensitivity and specificity and, therefore, relies on biochemical markers of myocardial necrosis, which can only be reliably detected within 14 to 16 hours from symptom onset. The body surface map (BSM) improves AMI detection but is limited by its interpretation by inexperienced medical staff. To facilitate interpretation, an automated BSM algorithm was developed and is evaluated in this study. One hundred three patients with ischemic-type chest pain were recruited for this study from December 2001 to April 2002. A 12-lead electrocardiogram (Marquette Mac 5K) and BSM (PRIME-ECG) were recorded at initial presentation, and cardiac troponin I and/or creatine kinase-MB levels measured at 12 hours after symptom onset. The admitting physician's 12-lead electrocardiographic (ECG) interpretation, 12-lead ECG algorithm (Marquette 12 SL V233) diagnosis, and BSM algorithm diagnosis were documented for each patient. AMI, defined by elevation of troponin I to >1 microg/L and/or creatine kinase-MB to >25U/L, occurred in 53 patients. The admitting physician diagnosed 24 patients with AMI (sensitivity 45%, specificity 94%), the 12-lead ECG algorithm diagnosed 17 patients with AMI (sensitivity 32%, specificity 98%), and the BSM algorithm diagnosed 34 patients with AMI (sensitivity 64%, specificity 94%). The BSM algorithm improved the diagnostic sensitivity by 2.0 (p <0.001) and 1.4 (p = 0.002) compared with the 12-lead ECG algorithm or the admitting physician, respectively. There was no significant difference in specificity. Thus, the BSM algorithm improves detection of AMI compared with the 12-lead ECG algorithm or physician's 12-lead ECG interpretation.