Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Detection of novel Plasmodium falciparum coronin gene mutations in a recrudescent ACT-treated patient in South-Western Nigeria

Background

Routine surveillance for antimalarial drug resistance is critical to sustaining the efficacy of artemisinin-based Combination Therapies (ACTs). Plasmodium falciparum kelch-13 (Pfkelch-13) and non-Pfkelch-13 artemisinin (ART) resistance-associated mutations are uncommon in Africa. We investigated polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum actin-binding protein (Pfcoronin) associated with in vivo reduced sensitivity to ART in Nigeria.

Methods

Fifty-two P. falciparum malaria subjects who met the inclusion criteria were followed up in a 28-day therapeutic efficacy study of artemether-lumefantrine in Lagos, Nigeria. Parasite detection was done by microscopy and molecular diagnostic approaches involving PCR amplification of genes for Pf18S rRNA, varATS, telomere-associated repetitive elements-2 (TARE-2). Pfcoronin and Pfkelch-13 genes were sequenced bi-directionally while clonality of infections was determined using 12 neutral P. falciparum microsatellite loci and msp2 analyses. Antimalarial drugs (sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, amodiaquine, chloroquine and some quinolones) resistance variants (DHFR_51, DHFR_59, DHFR_108, DHFR_164, MDR1_86, MDR1_184, DHPS_581 and DHPS_613) were genotyped by high-resolution melting (HRM) analysis.

Results

A total of 7 (26.92%) cases were identified either as early treatment failure, late parasitological failure or late clinical failure. Of the four post-treatment infections identified as recrudescence by msp2 genotypes, only one was classified as recrudescence by multilocus microsatellites genotyping. Microsatellite analysis revealed no significant difference in the mean allelic diversity, He, (P = 0.19, Mann-Whitney test). Allele sizes and frequency per locus implicated one isolate. Genetic analysis of this isolate identified two new Pfcoronin SNVs (I68G and L173F) in addition to the P76S earlier reported. Linkage-Disequilibrium as a standardized association index, IAS, between multiple P. falciparum loci revealed significant LD (IAS = 0.2865, P=0.02, Monte-Carlo simulation) around the neutral microsatellite loci. The pfdhfr/pfdhps/pfmdr1 drug resistance-associated haplotypes combinations, (108T/N/51I/164L/59R/581G/86Y/184F), were observed in two samples.

Conclusion

Pfcoronin mutations identified in this study, with potential to impact parasite clearance, may guide investigations on emerging ART tolerance in Nigeria, and West African endemic countries.

Prevalence of Malaria Infection in Pregnant Women Attending Antenatal Clinics in Southern Senegal

Despite marked progress in Senegal, three regions in the southeast part continue to have a high burden of malaria, but there have been no recent studies assessing the prevalence of malaria associated with pregnancy. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of malaria infection in pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in Senegal. During the malaria transmission season of 2019, pregnant women attending 11 health care facilities for a scheduled visit and those presenting unwell with signs of malaria were invited to participate in a malaria screening study. A finger prick blood sample was taken for malaria diagnosis by rapid diagnosis test (RDT) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A total of 877 pregnant women were enrolled, 787 for a scheduled antenatal consultation and 90 for an unscheduled consultation with signs of malaria. The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum among the first group was 48% by PCR and 20% by RDT, and that among the second group was 86% by PCR and 83% by RDT. RDT sensitivity in capturing asymptomatic, PCR-positive infections was 9.2% but ranged from 83% to 94% among febrile women. The prevalence of infection by PCR in women who reported having received at least three doses of sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP) was 41.9% compared with 58.9% in women who reported they had not received any SP doses (prevalence ratio adjusted for gravidity and gestational age, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.41-0.73). The burden of P. falciparum infections remains high among pregnant women, the majority of which are not captured by RDT. More effective measures to prevent malaria infection in pregnancy are needed.

Knowledge, attitude and perception towards COVID-19 among representative educated sub-Saharan Africans: A cross-sectional study during the exponential phase of the pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the Severe Acute Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a global health threat with extensive misinformation and conspiracy theories. Therefore, this study investigated the knowledge, attitude and perception of sub-Saharan Africans (SSA) on COVID-19 during the exponential phase of the pandemic. In this cross-sectional survey, self-administered web-based questionnaires were distributed through several online platforms. A total of 1046 respondents from 35 SSA countries completed the survey. The median age was 33 years (18-76 years) and about half (50.5%) of them were males. More than 40% across all socio-demographic categories except the Central African region (21.2%), vocational/secondary education (28.6%), student/unemployed (35.5%), had high COVID-19 knowledge score. Socio-demographic factors and access to information were associated with COVID-19 knowledge. Bivariate analysis revealed that independent variables, including the region of origin, age, gender, education and occupation, were significantly (p < 0.05) associated with COVID-19 knowledge. Multivariate analysis showed that residing in East (odds ratio [OR]: 7.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.7-14, p<0.001), Southern (OR: 3.7, 95% CI: 2.1-6.5, p<0.001) and West (OR: 3.9, 95% CI: 2.9-5.2, p<0.001) Africa was associated with high COVID-19 knowledge level. Apart from East Africa (54.7%), willingness for vaccine acceptance across the other SSA regions was <40%. About 52%, across all socio-demographic categories, were undecided. Knowledge level, region of origin, age, gender, marital status and religion were significantly (p < 0.05) associated with COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. About 67.4% were worried about contracting SARS-CoV-2, while 65.9% indicated they would consult a health professional if exposed. More than one-third of the respondents reported that their governments had taken prompt measures to tackle the pandemic. Despite high COVID-19 knowledge in our study population, most participants were still undecided regarding vaccination, which is critical in eliminating the pandemic. Therefore, extensive, accurate, dynamic and timely education in this aspect is of ultimate priority.

High genetic and haplotype diversity in vaccine candidate Pfceltos but not Pfrh5 among malaria-infected children in Ibadan, Nigeria

Malaria remains a global public health challenge. The disease has a great impact in sub-Saharan Africa among children under five years of age and pregnant women. Malaria control programs targeting the parasite and mosquitoes vectors with combinational therapy and insecticide-treated bednets are becoming obsolete due to the phenomenon of resistance, which is a challenge for reducing morbidity and mortality. Malaria vaccines would be effective alternative to the problem of parasite and insecticide resistance, but focal reports of polymorphisms in malaria candidate antigens have made it difficult to design an effective malaria vaccine. Therefore, studies geared towards elucidating the polymorphic pattern and how genes targeted for vaccine design evolve are imperative. We have carried out molecular and genetic analysis of two genes encoding vaccine candidates-the Plasmodium falciparum cell traversal ookinetes and sporozoites (Pfceltos) and P. falciparum reticulocyte binding protein 5 (Pfrh5) in parasite isolates from malaria-infected children in Ibadan, Nigeria to evaluate their genetic diversity, relatedness and pattern of molecular evolution. Pfceltos and Pfrh5 genes were amplified from P. falciparum positive samples. Amplified fragments were purified and sequenced using the chain termination method. Post-sequence edit of fragments and application of various population genetic analyses was done. We observed a higher number of segregating sites and haplotypes in the Pfceltos than in Pfrh5 gene, the former also presenting higher haplotype (0.942) and nucleotide diversity (θ = 0.01219 and π = 0.01148). In contrast, a lower haplotype (0.426) and nucleotide diversity (θ = 0.00125; π = 0.00095) was observed in the Pfrh5 gene. Neutrality tests do not show deviation from neutral expectations for Pfceltos, with the circulation of multiple low frequency haplotypes (Tajima's D = -0.21637; Fu and Li's D = -0.08164; Fu and Li's F = -0.14051). Strong linkage disequilibrium was observed between variable sites, in each of the genes studied. We postulate that the high diversity and circulation of multiple haplotypes has the potential of making a Pfceltos-subunit vaccine ineffective, while the low genetic diversity of Pfrh5 gene substantiates its evolutionary conservation and potential as a malaria vaccine candidate.

Plasmodium falciparum population structure and genetic diversity of cell traversal protein for ookinetes and sporozoites (CelTOS) during malaria resurgences in Dielmo, Senegal

The ability to accurately measure the intensity of malaria transmission in areas with low transmission is extremely important to guide elimination efforts. Plasmodium falciparum Cell-traversal protein for ookinetes and sporozoites (PfCelTOS) is an important conserved sporozoite antigen reported as one of the promising malaria vaccine candidates, and could be used to estimate malaria transmission intensity. This study aimed at determining whether the diversity of PfCelTOS gene reflects the changes in malaria transmission that occurred between 2007 and 2014 in Dielmo, a Senegalese village, before and after the implementation of insecticide treated bed nets (ITNs). Of the 109 samples positive for PfCelTOS PCR, 96 (88%) were successfully sequenced and analysed for polymorphisms and population diversity. The number of segregating sites was higher during the pre-intervention period (13) and the malaria resurgences (11) than during the intervention period (5). Similarly, the number and diversity of haplotypes were higher during the pre-intervention period (16 and 0.914, respectively) and the malaria resurgences (6 and 0.821, respectively) than during the intervention period (4 and 0.758, respectively). Moreover, the average number of nucleotide differences was higher during the pre-intervention (3.792) and during malaria resurgences (3.467) than during the intervention period (2.189). The 3D7 KSSFNEP haplotype was only observed during the intervention period. Only two haplotypes were shared in both the pre-intervention and intervention periods while four haplotypes were shared between the pre-intervention and the malaria resurgences. The Fst values indicate moderate differentiation between pre-intervention and intervention periods (0.17433), and between intervention and malaria resurgences period (0.19198) as well as between pre-intervention and malaria resurgences periods (0.06607). PfCelTOS genetic diversity reflected changes of malaria transmission, with higher polymorphisms recorded before the large-scale implementation of ITNs and during the malaria resurgences. PfCelTOS is also a candidate vaccine; mapping its diversity across multiple endemic environments will facilitate the design and optimisation of a broad and efficacious vaccine.

Rebound of multiple infections and prevalence of anti-malarial resistance associated markers following malaria upsurges in Dielmo village, Senegal, West Africa

BACKGROUND

Thanks to the scale up of malaria control interventions, the malaria burden in Senegal has decreased substantially to the point that the National Malaria Control Programme plans to achieve malaria elimination by 2030. To guide such efforts, measuring and monitoring parasite population evolution and anti-malarial drugs resistance is extremely important. Information on the prevalence of parasite mutations related to drug resistance can provide a first signal of emergence, introduction and selection that can help with refining drug interventions. The aim of this study was to analyse the prevalence of anti-malarial drug resistance-associated markers before and after the implementation of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) from 2005 to 2014 in Dielmo, a model site for malaria intervention studies in Senegal.

METHODS

Samples from both malaria patients and Plasmodium falciparum asymptomatic carriers were analysed with high resolution melting (HRM) technique to genotype P. falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (Pfcrt) gene haplotypes and multidrug-resistant protein 1 (Pfmdr1) gene at codons N86 and Y184.

RESULTS

Among the 539 samples analysed, 474, 486, and 511 were successfully genotyped for Pfmdr1 N86, Y184, and Pfcrt, respectively. The prevalence of drug resistance markers was high, particularly during the malaria upsurges. Following the scale-up in bed net distribution, only the mutant (86F-like) variant of Pfmdr1 86 was present while during the malaria upsurges the predominance of two types 86Y-86N (43%) and 86F-like (56%) were observed. Most infections (87%) carried the wild type Y-allele at Pfmdr1 184 during the period of nets scale-up while during the malaria upsurges only 16% of infections had wild type and 79% of infections had mixed (mutant/wild) type. The frequency of the mixed genotypes SVMNT-like_CVMNK and SVMNT-like_CVIET within Pfcrt gene was particularly low during bednet scale up. Their frequency increased significantly (P < 0.001) during the malaria upsurges.

CONCLUSION

This data demonstrated the effect of multiple interventions on the dynamics of drug resistance-associated mutations in the main malaria parasite P. falciparum in an endemic village in Senegal. Monitoring drug resistance markers should be conducted periodically to detect threats of emergence or resurgence that could compromise the efficacy of anti-malarial drugs.

Complexity of Plasmodium falciparum infection and genetic variations associated with differences in parasite clearance time in two Malian villages

Background

Effective approaches to fight against malaria include disease prevention, an early diagnosis of malaria cases, and rapid management of confirmed cases by treatment with effective antimalarials. Artemisinin-based combination therapies are first-line treatments for uncomplicated malaria in endemic areas. However, cases of resistance to artemisinin have already been described in South-East Asia resulting in prolonged parasite clearance time after treatment. In Mali, though mutations in the K13 gene associated with delayed clearance in Asia are absent, a significant difference in parasite clearance time following treatment with artesunate was observed between two malaria endemic sites, Bougoula-Hameau and Faladje. Hypothetically, differences in complexity of Plasmodium falciparum infections may be accounted for this difference. Hence, the aims of this study were to assess the complexity of infection (COI) and genetic diversity of P. falciparum parasites during malaria treatment in Bougoula-Hameau and Faladje in Mali.

Methods

Thirty (30) patients per village were randomly selected from 221 patients enrolled in a prospective artesunate monotherapy study conducted in Faladje and Bougoula-Hameau in 2016. All parasitemic blood samples of patients from enrollment to last positive slide were retained to assess malaria parasite COI and polymorphisms. DNA were extracted with a Qiagen kit and Pfcsp and Pfama1 encoding gene were amplified by nested PCR and sequenced using the Illumina platform. The parasite clearance time (PCT) was determined using the parasite clearance estimator of Worldwide Antimarial Resistance Network (WWARN). Data were analyzed with R®.

Results

The median number of genetically distinct parasite clones was similar at enrollment, 7 (IQR of 5-9) in Faladje and 6 (IQR of 4-10) in Bougoula-Hameau (p-value = 0.1). On the first day after treatment initiation, the COI was higher in Faladje (6; CI:4-8) than in Bougoula-Hameau (4; CI:4-6) with a p-value =0. 02. Overall, COI was high with higher PCT. Finally, there was a low genetic diversity between Faladje and Bougoula-Hameau.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated that the difference in PCT observed between the two villages could be due to differences in the complexity of infection of these two villages.

Multiple Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance polymorphisms identified in a pregnant woman with severe malaria and a concomitant spontaneous abortion in Cross River, Nigeria, West Africa

Background

The development of resistance by Plasmodium falciparum to anti-malarial drugs impedes any benefits of the drug. In addition, absence or delayed availability of current anti-malarial drugs in remote areas has the potential to results to parasite escape and continuous transmission.

Case presentation

The case of a 29-year old pregnant woman from Biase Local Government Area in Cross River State Nigeria presenting with febrile illness and high body temperature of 38.7 °C was reported. She looked pale and vomited twice on arrival at the health facility. Her blood smear on the first day of hospitalization was positive for P. falciparum by RDT, microscopy (21,960 parasite/µl) and real-time PCR, with a PCV of 18%. She was treated with 600 mg intravenous quinine in 500 ml of 5% Dextrose/0.9% Saline 8-hourly for 24 h. On the second day of hospitalization, she complained of weakness, persistent high-grade fever and vaginal bleeding. A bulging amnion from an extended cervix was observed. Following venous blood collection for laboratory investigations, 600 µg of misoprostol was inserted into the posterior fornix of her vagina as part of her obstetric care. Parenteral quinine was discontinued, and she was given full therapeutic regimen of artemether-lumefantrine 80/480 mg tablets to be taken for 3 days beginning from the second day. Her blood samples on the second and third day of hospitalization remained positive for P. falciparum by all three diagnostic methods. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay on all three P. falciparum isolates revealed the presence of variants associated with multiple drug resistant markers.

Discussion

Infecting P. falciparum isolates may have been resistant to initial quinine treatment resulting from parasite cross-resistance with other quinoline associated resistant markers such as 86Y and 184 F.

Conclusions

Therefore, the likely transmission of similarly resistant parasites in the study area calls for reinforcement of interventions and adherence to current World Health Organization guidelines in administering only approved drugs to individuals in order to mitigate parasite escape and eventual transmission to other susceptible individuals.

Knowledge, attitude and perception of West Africans towards COVID-19: a survey to inform public health intervention

Background

The first case of the novel coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in West Africa was first confirmed in Nigeria in February 2020. Since then, several public health interventions and preventive measures have been implemented to curtail transmission of the causative agent, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Therefore, this study was performed to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of West Africans towards COVID-19.

Methods

An online survey was conducted between 29 September to 29 October 2020 among West Africans. Thirty-three survey questions were designed to collect sociodemographic data and participants’ knowledge, attitude and perception towards COVID-19. The study targeted all West African nationals who were 18 years and above, and willing to participate in the study. Participants were either in-country or abroad.

Results

Overall, 1106 respondents (≥18 years) from 16 West African countries, with about 12.1% of them residing outside the West African subregion, participated in the survey. The respondents had an average COVID-19 knowledge score of 67.82 ± 8.31, with knowledge of the disease significantly associated with the country of residence (p = 0.00) and marginally (p = 0.05) so with settlement types (i.e., urban, suburban and rural areas). Most respondents (93.4%) could identify the main COVID-19 symptoms, and 73.20% would consult a healthcare professional if infected with SARS-CoV-2. Also, 75.2% of the respondents are willing to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, whereas 10.40% and 14.40% are unwilling and undecided, respectively. Perceptions of what constitute COVID-19 preventive measures were highly variable. Approximately, 8% of the respondents felt that their government responded excellently in managing the pandemic while a third felt that the response was just good. Also, more than half (54%) opined that isolation and treatment of COVID-19 patients is a way of curbing SARS-CoV-2 spread.

Conclusions

Most West Africans have basic knowledge of COVID-19 and showed a positive attitude, with likely proactive practice towards the disease. However, results showed that these varied across countries and are influenced by the types of settlements. Therefore, the health and education authorities in various countries should develop focused measures capturing people in different settlements to improve their preventative measures when designing public health interventions for COVID-19 and any future epidemics or pandemics.

Adopting an heterologous prime-boost strategy in COVID-19 vaccination: the need for locally generated evidence in Africa

The reduction in the severity and prevalence of COVID-19 has been largely due to the rapid development and deployment of COVID-19 vaccines. Consequently, WHO, in partnership with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, set up the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Initiative. The goal of this initiative is to prevent discrimination between high and low-income/middle-income countries and ensure equitable vaccine distribution. The first COVID-19 vaccine sent to most countries in the region through the COVAX initiative was the Oxford AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine. Due to the reduced protection against variants of concern, safety issues, and supply challenges of the AstraZeneca vaccine in some countries, heterologous booster dose with alternative vaccines for individuals who have received a prime dose of AstraZeneca. Moreover, vaccine mixing (heterologous vaccination) due to its superior immunogenicity and enhanced protection is being recommended even for individuals who are yet to be vaccinated. However, it is important that prior adoption, empirical data on immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity be locally generated in populations where such heterologous vaccine is to be implemented. Regrettably, such data from our search in all clinical trial databases is not ongoing in Africa as at the time of writing this manuscript. Therefore, this treatise advocates an experimental arm to generate such robust evidence. This will provide empirical evidence to guide this innovative approach aimed at ensuring equity and access to COVID-19 vaccines in LMICs, particularly countries within the African region.

Beyond SARS-CoV-2: Lessons That African Governments Can Apply in Preparation for Possible Future Epidemics

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has placed unprecedented pressure on healthcare systems, even in advanced economies. While the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa compared to other continents has so far been low, there are concerns about under-reporting, inadequate diagnostic tools, and insufficient treatment facilities. Moreover, proactiveness on the part of African governments has been under scrutiny. For instance, issues have emerged regarding the responsiveness of African countries in closing international borders to limit trans-continental transmission of the virus. Overdependence on imported products and outsourced services could have contributed to African governments’ hesitation to shut down international air and seaports. In this era of emerging and re-emerging pathogens, we recommend that African nations should consider self-sufficiency in the health sector as an urgent priority, as this will not be the last outbreak to occur. In addition to the Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement fund (US$600 million) provided by the World Bank for strengthening health systems and disease surveillance, each country should further establish an epidemic emergency fund for epidemic preparedness and response. We also recommend that epidemic surveillance units should create a secure database of previous and ongoing pandemics in terms of aetiology, spread, and treatment, as well as financial management records. Strategic collection and analysis of data should also be a central focus of these units to facilitate studies of disease trends and to estimate the scale of requirements in preparation and response to any future pandemic or epidemic.

Translation of genomic epidemiology of infectious pathogens: Enhancing African genomics hubs for outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Deadly emerging infectious pathogens pose an unprecedented challenge to health systems and economies, especially across Africa, where health care infrastructure is weak, and poverty rates remain high. Genomic technologies are vital for enhancing the understanding and development of intervention approaches against these pathogens, including Ebola and the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

DISCUSSION

Africa has contributed few genomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to the global pool in growing open access repositories. To bridge this gap, the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ACDC) is coordinating continent-wide initiatives to establish genomic hubs in selected well-resourced African centres of excellence. This will allow for standardisation and efficient and rapid data generation and curation. However, the strategy to ensure capacity for high-throughput genomics at selected hubs should not overshadow the deployment of portable, field-friendly and technically less demanding genomics technologies in all affected countries. This will enhance small-scale local genomic surveillance in outbreaks, leaving validation and large-scale approaches to be taken at central genomic hubs.

CONCLUSION

The ACDC needs to scale-up its campaign for government support across African Union countries to ensure the sustainable financing of its strategy for increased pathogen genomic intelligence and other interventions in current and inevitable future epidemics in Africa.

Presence of additional Plasmodium vivax malaria in Duffy negative individuals from Southwestern Nigeria

Background

Malaria in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA) is thought to be mostly caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Recently, growing reports of cases due to Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae, and Plasmodium vivax have been increasingly observed to play a role in malaria epidemiology in sSA. This in fact is due to the usage of very sensitive diagnostic tools (e.g. PCR), which have highlighted the underestimation of non-falciparum malaria in this sub-region. Plasmodium vivax was historically thought to be absent in sSA due to the high prevalence of the Duffy negativity in individuals residing in this sub-continent. Recent studies reporting detection of vivax malaria in Duffy-negative individuals from Mali, Mauritania, Cameroon challenge this notion.

Methods

Following previous report of P. vivax in Duffy-negative individuals in Nigeria, samples were further collected and assessed RDT and/or microscopy. Thereafter, malaria positive samples were subjected to conventional PCR method and DNA sequencing to confirm both single/mixed infections as well as the Duffy status of the individuals.

Results

Amplification of Plasmodium gDNA was successful in 59.9% (145/242) of the evaluated isolates and as expected P. falciparum was the most predominant (91.7%) species identified. Interestingly, four P. vivax isolates were identified either as single (3) or mixed (one P. falciparum/P. vivax) infection. Sequencing results confirmed all vivax isolates as truly vivax malaria and the patient were of Duffy-negative genotype.

Conclusion

Identification of additional vivax isolates among Duffy-negative individuals from Nigeria, substantiate the expanding body of evidence on the ability of P. vivax to infect RBCs that do not express the DARC gene. Hence, such genetic-epidemiological study should be conducted at the country level in order to evaluate the true burden of P. vivax in Nigeria.

Molecular identification of Plasmodium species responsible for malaria reveals Plasmodium vivax isolates in Duffy negative individuals from southwestern Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Malaria in Nigeria is principally due to Plasmodium falciparum and, to a lesser extent to Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale. Plasmodium vivax is thought to be absent in Nigeria in particular and sub-Saharan Africa in general, due to the near fixation of the Duffy negative gene in this population. Nevertheless, there are frequent reports of P. vivax infection in Duffy negative individuals in the sub-region, including reports from two countries sharing border with Nigeria to the west (Republic of Benin) and east (Cameroon). Additionally, there were two cases of microscopic vivax-like malaria from Nigerian indigenous population. Hence molecular surveillance of the circulating Plasmodium species in two states (Lagos and Edo) of southwestern Nigeria was carried out.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey between September 2016 and March 2017 was conducted. 436 febrile patients were included for the present work. Venous blood of these patients was subjected to RDT as well as microscopy. Further, parasite DNA was isolated from positive samples and PCR diagnostic was employed followed by direct sequencing of the 18S rRNA of Plasmodium species as well as sequencing of a portion of the promoter region of the Duffy antigen receptor for chemokines. Samples positive for P. vivax were re-amplified several times and finally using the High Fidelity Taq to rule out any bias introduced.

RESULTS

Of the 256 (58.7%) amplifiable malaria parasite DNA, P. falciparum was, as expected, the major cause of infection, either alone 85.5% (219/256; 97 from Edo and 122 from Lagos), or mixed with P. malariae 6.3% (16/256) or with P. vivax 1.6% (4/256). Only one of the five P. vivax isolates was found to be a single infection. DNA sequencing and subsequent alignment of the 18S rRNA of P. vivax with the reference strains displayed very high similarities (100%). Remarkably, the T-33C was identified in all P. vivax samples, thus confirming that all vivax-infected patients in the current study are Duffy negative.

CONCLUSION

The present study gave the first molecular evidence of P. vivax in Nigeria in Duffy negative individuals. Though restricted to two states; Edo in South-South and Lagos in South-west Nigeria, the real burden of this species in Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa might have been underestimated, hence there is need to put in place a country-wide, as well as a sub-Saharan Africa-wide surveillance and appropriate control measures.

Molecular epidemiology and evolution of drug-resistant genes in the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum in southwestern Nigeria

Malaria is an age-old disease of human kind living in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the globe, with Africa contributing the highest incidence of morbidity and mortality. Among many hurdles, evolution and spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites constitute major challenges to malaria control and elimination. Information on molecular epidemiology and pattern of evolution of genes conferring resistance to different antimalarials are needed to track the route of the spread of resistant parasites and also to inform if the drug-resistant genes are adapted in the population following the Darwinian model of evolution. In the present study, we have followed molecular methods to detect both the known and emerging mutations in three genes (Pfcrt, Pfdhfr and Pfdhps) of P. falciparum conferring resistance to chloroquine and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine from two different states (Edo: meso-endemic and Lagos: hypo-endemic) in southwestern Nigeria. High diversities in haplotypes and nucleotides in genes responsible for chloroquine (Pfcrt) and sulfadoxine (Pfdhps) resistance are recorded. About 96% of Pfdhfr and Pfdhps gene in both the meso- and hypo- endemic areas were mutant type, followed by 61% in Pfcrt gene. Many unique haplotypes of Pfdhps and Pfcrt were found to be segregated in these two populations. One particular mutant haplotype of Pfdhfr (AIRNI) was found to be in very high frequency in both Lagos and Edo. While the net haplotype diversity was highest in Pfdhps (0.81 in Lagos, 0.87 in Edo), followed by Pfcrt (0.69 in Lagos, 0.65 in Edo); highest number of haplotype was found in Pfdhps with 13 distinct haplotypes, followed by seven in Pfcrt and four in Pfdhfr gene. Moreover, detection of strong linkage among mutations of Pfcrt and Pfdhfr and feeble evidence for balancing selection in Pfdhps are indicative of evolutionary potential of mutation in genes responsible for drug resistance in Nigerian populations of P. falciparum.