Improving the Cost-efficiency of Preventive Chemotherapy: Impact of New Diagnostics on Stopping Decisions for Control of Schistosomiasis

BACKGROUND

Control of schistosomiasis (SCH) relies on the regular distribution of preventive chemotherapy (PC) over many years. For the sake of sustainable SCH control, a decision must be made at some stage to scale down or stop PC. These "stopping decisions" are based on population surveys that assess whether infection levels are sufficiently low. However, the limited sensitivity of the currently used diagnostic (Kato-Katz [KK]) to detect low-intensity infections is a concern. Therefore, the use of new, more sensitive, molecular diagnostics has been proposed.

METHODS

Through statistical analysis of Schistosoma mansoni egg counts collected from Burundi and a simulation study using an established transmission model for schistosomiasis, we investigated the extent to which more sensitive diagnostics can improve decision making regarding stopping or continuing PC for the control of S. mansoni.

RESULTS

We found that KK-based strategies perform reasonably well for determining when to stop PC at a local scale. Use of more sensitive diagnostics leads to a marginally improved health impact (person-years lived with heavy infection) and comes at a cost of continuing PC for longer (up to around 3 years), unless the decision threshold for stopping PC is adapted upward. However, if this threshold is set too high, PC may be stopped prematurely, resulting in a rebound of infection levels and disease burden (+45% person-years of heavy infection).

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the potential value of more sensitive diagnostics lies more in the reduction of survey-related costs than in the direct health impact of improved parasite control.

How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames.

METHODS

Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting.

RESULTS

For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.

Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti

BACKGROUND

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are the main transmission vector, suggesting that a more stringent criterion is required for MDA decision making in these settings.

METHODS

We use a transmission model to investigate how a lower prevalence threshold (<1% antigenemia [Ag] prevalence compared with <2% Ag prevalence) for MDA decision making would affect the probability of local elimination, health outcomes, the number of MDA rounds, including restarts, and program costs associated with MDA and surveys across different scenarios. To determine the cost-effectiveness of switching to a lower threshold, we simulated 65% and 80% MDA coverage of the total population for different willingness to pay per disability-adjusted life-year averted for India ($446.07), Tanzania ($389.83), and Haiti ($219.84).

RESULTS

Our results suggest that with a lower Ag threshold, there is a small proportion of simulations where extra rounds are required to reach the target, but this also reduces the need to restart MDA later in the program. For 80% coverage, the lower threshold is cost-effective across all baseline prevalences for India, Tanzania, and Haiti. For 65% MDA coverage, the lower threshold is not cost-effective due to additional MDA rounds, although it increases the probability of local elimination. Valuing the benefits of elimination to align with the GPELF goals, we find that a willingness to pay per capita government expenditure of approximately $1000-$4000 for 1% increase in the probability of local elimination would be required to make a lower threshold cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower Ag thresholds for stopping MDAs generally mean a higher probability of local elimination, reducing long-term costs and health impacts. However, they may also lead to an increased number of MDA rounds required to reach the lower threshold and, therefore, increased short-term costs. Collectively, our analyses highlight that lower target Ag thresholds have the potential to assist programs in achieving lymphatic filariasis goals.

Can Salmonella typhi Cause Acute Appendicitis?

Salmonella typhi, commonly known for causing typhoid fever, is recognized as a bacterium responsible for a wide range of gastrointestinal and systemic infections. While its systemic manifestations have been well-documented, its association with localized gastrointestinal complications, such as appendicitis, remains relatively rare and less explored. This case report presents a compelling clinical case of a 55-year-old patient who presented with symptoms of gastrointestinal distress and was diagnosed with S. typhi-induced appendicitis. The patient's history, clinical presentation, laboratory investigations, radiological findings, management, and outcomes are thoroughly discussed. The report also touches upon the broader context of appendicitis etiology and highlights the significance of prompt diagnosis and intervention in cases of Salmonella-induced appendicitis.

Cryptococcal laryngitis in an immunocompetent asthmatic patient using inhaled corticosteroids

We present a case of laryngeal cryptococcosis caused by cryptococcosis neoformans var. grubii affecting a patient using excessive inhaled corticosteroids. The patient experienced symptoms for several months prior to specialist review and the visualization of a mass lesion by nasopharyngoscopy. Fortunately a biopsy was performed and through histopathology & microbiological assessment a diagnosis of cryptococcal laryngitis was made. Treatment with 6 months of fluconazole resulted in clinical cure and resolution of symptoms. It is important to raise awareness of the risk of non-Candida fungal infections in patients on high dose corticosteroids, especially in the post covid era were steroids are more commonly prescribed.

Uncovering a population of gravitational lens galaxies with magnified standard candle SN Zwicky

Detecting gravitationally lensed supernovae is among the biggest challenges in astronomy. It involves a combination of two very rare phenomena: catching the transient signal of a stellar explosion in a distant galaxy and observing it through a nearly perfectly aligned foreground galaxy that deflects light towards the observer. Here we describe how high-cadence optical observations with the Zwicky Transient Facility, with its unparalleled large field of view, led to the detection of a multiply imaged type Ia supernova, SN Zwicky, also known as SN 2022qmx. Magnified nearly 25-fold, the system was found thanks to the standard candle nature of type Ia supernovae. High-spatial-resolution imaging with the Keck telescope resolved four images of the supernova with very small angular separation, corresponding to an Einstein radius of only θE = 0.167″ and almost identical arrival times. The small θE and faintness of the lensing galaxy are very unusual, highlighting the importance of supernovae to fully characterize the properties of galaxy-scale gravitational lenses, including the impact of galaxy substructures.

A radio-detected type Ia supernova with helium-rich circumstellar material

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are thermonuclear explosions of degenerate white dwarf stars destabilized by mass accretion from a companion star1, but the nature of their progenitors remains poorly understood. A way to discriminate between progenitor systems is through radio observations; a non-degenerate companion star is expected to lose material through winds2 or binary interaction3 before explosion, and the supernova ejecta crashing into this nearby circumstellar material should result in radio synchrotron emission. However, despite extensive efforts, no type Ia supernova (SN Ia) has ever been detected at radio wavelengths, which suggests a clean environment and a companion star that is itself a degenerate white dwarf star4,5. Here we report on the study of SN 2020eyj, a SN Ia showing helium-rich circumstellar material, as demonstrated by its spectral features, infrared emission and, for the first time in a SN Ia to our knowledge, a radio counterpart. On the basis of our modelling, we conclude that the circumstellar material probably originates from a single-degenerate binary system in which a white dwarf accretes material from a helium donor star, an often proposed formation channel for SNe Ia (refs. 6,7). We describe how comprehensive radio follow-up of SN 2020eyj-like SNe Ia can improve the constraints on their progenitor systems.

Sexual mixing patterns in men who have sex with men: network approaches for smart resource allocation

BACKGROUND

Age-based sexual mixing patterns in men who have sex with men (MSM) can greatly inform strategic allocation of intervention resources to subsets of the population for the purpose of preventing the greatest number of new HIV infections.

METHODS

Egocentric network data collected from MSM participating in annual HIV sentinel surveillance surveys were used to assess age-dependent mixing and to explore its epidemiological implications on the risk of HIV transmission risk (among those HIV-infected) and HIV acquisition risk (among those not infected).

RESULTS

Mixing in this sample of 1605 Chinese MSM is relatively age assortative (the average of values expressing the degree of preferential mixing were 2.01 in diagonal cells vs 0.87 in off-diagonal cells). Expected numbers of HIV acquisition were highest in the 20-24years age group; those for HIV transmissions were highest among 25-29year olds. The risk of both acquisition and transmission was highest in age groups that immediately follow the most commonly reported ages of sexual debut in this population (i.e. age 20).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that combination prevention resources should be targeted at younger MSM who are at higher risk of both transmission and acquisition. Programs may also do well to target even younger age groups who have not yet debuted in order to establish prevention effects before risky sexual behaviours begin. More research on optimal strategies to access these harder-to-reach subsets of the MSM population is needed. Findings also support ongoing efforts for public health practitioners to collect network data in key populations to support more empirically driven strategies to target prevention resources.

183 DEVELOPING AND FACILITATING ONLINE INTERGENERATIONAL CAFÉS

Background

Many older people throughout their lives will require nursing care, consequentially most nurses will care for older people during their career. It is important that older people and student nurses are provided with shared learning opportunities so that professional caring partnerships can be nurtured and realised for mutual benefit. Intergenerational projects offer opportunities for intergenerational learning. However, few projects explore student nurse-older person dyads and how these can be integrated within undergraduate pre-registration programmes. This paper describes the development and facilitation of online older person-student nurse intergenerational cafés.

Methods

The project was managed by a design team comprising senior administration, lecturers in BSc Nursing programmes and a lecturer in Design for Health and Wellbeing. The ‘world café’ concept along with values of enablement and participation underpinned the design. The initiative was planned to align with a year three community care module. Regular online team meetings were held to agree the aims and outcomes for student nurse-older person cohorts, decide recruitment strategies, agree the process and format of facilitation. Older people were recruited through retirement, church, volunteer, social and sporting organisations, media and also using snowballing methods.

Results

Both student nurse and older person cohorts were offered support on how to access and participate in the café. Participants attended one of three online cafés hosted through Microsoft Teams. Each café followed the same format: 1) Group meeting convened with all participants; 2) Breakout small group ‘table’ discussions with student nurse-older people participants and design team facilitation; 3) The café was reconvened to whole group meeting where feedback was collated to elicit shared learning.

Conclusion

The initiative proved successful and there is merit in embedding intergenerational cafés into professionally accredited health care programmes. Through sharing life experiences and perspectives, intergenerational barriers can be reduced and new insights developed on person-centred gerontological care.

Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model

BACKGROUND

Road traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of the health burden caused by road traffic injuries is hard to determine. A limited number of models predict the incidence of mortality due to road traffic injury in Malawi. These estimates vary greatly, owing to differences in assumptions, and so the health burden caused on the population by road traffic injuries remains unclear.

METHODS

We use an individual-based model and combine an epidemiological model of road traffic injuries with a health seeking behaviour and health system model. We provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries in Malawi, from the onset of the injury through to the final health outcome. We also investigate the effects of an assumption made by other models that multiple injuries do not contribute to health burden caused by road accidents.

RESULTS

Our model estimates an overall average incidence of mortality between 23.5 and 29.8 per 100,000 person years due to road traffic injuries and an average of 180,000 to 225,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per year between 2010 and 2020 in an estimated average population size of 1,364,000 over the 10-year period. Our estimated incidence of mortality falls within the range of other estimates currently available for Malawi, whereas our estimated number of DALYs is greater than the only other estimate available for Malawi, the GBD estimate predicting and average of 126,200 DALYs per year over the same time period. Our estimates, which account for multiple injuries, predict a 22-58% increase in overall health burden compared to the model ran as a single injury model.

CONCLUSIONS

Road traffic injuries are difficult to model with conventional modelling methods, owing to the numerous types of injuries that occur. Using an individual-based model framework, we can provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries. Our results indicate a higher health burden caused by road traffic injuries than previously estimated.

NSW Cannabis Medicines Advisory Service preliminary survey results - Enquirer perceptions and patient outcomes

Background

In 2018, an innovative, State government‐funded cannabis medicines drug information service was established for health professionals in New South Wales (NSW). The NSW Cannabis Medicines Advisory Service (CMAS) provides expert clinical guidance and support to medical practitioners considering prescribing a cannabis medicine to their patient(s).

Aims

This research examines quality assurance and patient outcomes related to enquirers' experience with NSW CMAS.

Methods

Data collection involved an online, anonymous survey with two components. Following a health professional enquiry, quality assurance data were collected about the enquirers' experience with NSW CMAS. The second survey focussed on patient outcomes and provides real‐world observational data about cannabis medicines safety and effectiveness across a wide range of indications.

Results

Data collection occurred between January 2020 and June 2021. Preliminary analyses were based on 68 quality assurance and 50 patient outcomes survey responses. General practitioners represented the highest proportion of survey responses (n = 33; 49%). The most common enquiry involved ‘patient‐specific advice’ (n = 50; 74%). Patient‐specific information provided by the service was mainly used for prescribing decision support (n = 45; 90%).

Conclusions

Preliminary findings highlight the impact of an innovative cannabis medicines drug information service in supporting health professional clinical practice in an area of rapid knowledge translation. Quality assurance data indicate that the service is perceived well by the majority of enquirers. Patient outcomes data across a wide range of indications suggest some effectiveness and a reasonable safety profile for prescribed cannabis medicines for most patients.

Trends in cardiovascular mortality of cancer patients in the US over two decades 1999–2019

Background

Cancer is the second most common cause of death globally after cardiovascular (CV) disease. The present study sought to compare the trends in CV mortality between patients with and without cancer in the US over two decades (1999 to 2019), stratified by sociodemographic factors such as age, sex and geographical location.

Methods

In this retrospective study, the number of deaths, crude- and age-adjusted mortality rates between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2019, were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) data set

Results

We examined a total of 53,422,612 deaths between 1999 and 2019; of which 33.4% were defined as CV mortality and 25.6% had malignancy. During this period, among patients with cancer, the age-adjusted mortality rate dropped by 52%. (Vs, 38% in patients with no malignancy). CV mortality was highest in patients with gastrointestinal and prostate malignancy where CV mortality accounts together for over 40% of all CV mortality in patients with cancer in 1999 and 33.6% in 2019. The age-adjusted CV mortality rate (per 100,000 people) of patients with GI and prostate cancer nearly halved over twenty years from 2.7 to 1.0 and 2.5 to 1.0.

The CV age-adjusted mortality rate dropped more significantly among patients with gastrointestinal, breast, and prostate malignancy than among patients with hematological malignancy (59–63% vs. 41%. We observed that crude CV mortality rates amongst patients with cancer declined over the study period in all age groups but was more prominent among patients over 65 years old than those aged 55–64 and under 55 (51%-55% Vs. 41%, 25%, respectively).Similar reductions in mortality in men and women (54% and 53% reduction) were observed

During the study period the decline in cardiovascular mortality was more prominent in metro areas which led to lower age adjusted CV mortality in Metro compared to non-Metro areas (5.7–6.3 vs 7.2). The decline in age adjusted CV mortality in patients with cancer differed significantly in different states

Conclusions

In our temporal analysis we show a 50% decline in CV mortality in the US over two decades in both male and female patients with cancer, that has exceeded the reduction in CV mortality seen in the non-cancer population. The greatest reductions in CV mortality were observed in patients with GI, breast and prostate malignancies, those residing in metro areas and in patients aged 65 and over.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None. CV death among cancer patients

Sugar prevalence in Aedes albopictus differs by habitat, sex and time of day on Masig Island, Torres Strait, Australia

Background

Sugar feeding is a fundamental behaviour of many mosquito species. For Aedes albopictus, an important vector of dengue virus and chikungunya virus, little is known about its sugar-feeding behaviour, and no studies have been conducted on this in the southern hemisphere. This knowledge is pivotal for determining the potential of attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) to control this important vector.

Methods

The prevalence of sugar was assessed in 1808 Ae. albopictus from Masig Island, Torres Strait, Australia collected between 13 and 25 March 2020. Fructose presence and content in field-collected Ae. albopictus were quantified using the cold anthrone assay.

Results

Significantly more male (35.8%) than female (28.4%) Ae. albopictus were sugar fed. There was a significant interaction between sex and time of day on the probability of capturing sugar-fed Ae. albopictus. For both sexes, fructose prevalence and content were higher in mosquitoes caught in the morning than in the afternoon. Female Ae. albopictus collected in the residential habitat were significantly more likely to be sugar fed than those collected in the woodland habitat.

Conclusions

These findings provide baseline information about the sugar-feeding patterns of Ae. albopictus and provide essential information to enable an assessment of the potential of ATSBs for vector suppression and control on Masig Island, with relevance to other locations where this species occurs.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-05020-w.

Longitudinal evaluation of laboratory-based serological assays for SARS-CoV-2 antibody detection

Serological assays for SARS-CoV-2 infection are now widely available for use in diagnostic laboratories. Limited data are available on the performance characteristics in different settings, and at time periods remote from the initial infection. Validation of the Abbott (Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG), DiaSorin (Liaison SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG) and Roche (Cobas Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2) assays was undertaken utilising 217 serum samples from 131 participants up to 7 months following COVID-19 infection. The Abbott and DiaSorin assays were implemented into routine laboratory workflow, with outcomes reported for 2764 clinical specimens. Sensitivity and specificity were concordant with the range reported by the manufacturers for all assays. Sensitivity across the convalescent period was highest for the Roche at 95.2-100% (95% CI 81.0-100%), then the DiaSorin at 88.1-100% (95% CI 76.0-100%), followed by the Abbott 68.2-100% (95% CI 53.4-100%). Sensitivity of the Abbott assay fell from approximately 5 months; on this assay paired serum samples for 45 participants showed a significant drop in the signal-to-cut-off ratio and 10 sero-reversion events. When used in clinical practice, all samples testing positive by both DiaSorin and Abbott assays were confirmed as true positive results. In this low prevalence setting, despite high laboratory specificity, the positive predictive value of a single positive assay was low. Comprehensive validation of serological assays is necessary to determine the optimal assay for each diagnostic setting. In this low prevalence setting we found implementation of two assays with different antibody targets maximised sensitivity and specificity, with confirmatory testing necessary for any sample which was positive in only one assay.

Prospects for beyond the Standard Model physics searches at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment: DUNE Collaboration

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will be a powerful tool for a variety of physics topics. The high-intensity proton beams provide a large neutrino flux, sampled by a near detector system consisting of a combination of capable precision detectors, and by the massive far detector system located deep underground. This configuration sets up DUNE as a machine for discovery, as it enables opportunities not only to perform precision neutrino measurements that may uncover deviations from the present three-flavor mixing paradigm, but also to discover new particles and unveil new interactions and symmetries beyond those predicted in the Standard Model (SM). Of the many potential beyond the Standard Model (BSM) topics DUNE will probe, this paper presents a selection of studies quantifying DUNE's sensitivities to sterile neutrino mixing, heavy neutral leptons, non-standard interactions, CPT symmetry violation, Lorentz invariance violation, neutrino trident production, dark matter from both beam induced and cosmogenic sources, baryon number violation, and other new physics topics that complement those at high-energy colliders and significantly extend the present reach.

SCHISTOX: An individual based model for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis

A stochastic individual based model, SCHISTOX, has been developed for the study of schistosome transmission dynamics and the impact of control by mass drug administration. More novel aspects that can be investigated include individual level adherence and access to treatment, multiple communities, human sex population dynamics, and implementation of a potential vaccine. Many of the model parameters have been estimated within previous studies and have been shown to vary between communities, such as the age-specific contact rates governing the age profiles of infection. However, uncertainty remains as there are wide ranges for certain parameter values and a few remain relatively unknown. We analyse the model dynamics by parameterizing it with published parameter values. We also discuss the development of SCHISTOX in the form of a publicly available open-source GitHub repository. The next key development stage involves validating the model by calibrating to epidemiological data.

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.

Optimal Timing of Systemic Therapy in Resectable Colorectal Liver Metastases

Perioperative chemotherapy has been shown to improve disease-free survival compared with surgery alone for resectable colorectal liver metastases (CLM). We examined our experience with systemic chemotherapy in this clinical setting. A prospectively collected liver surgery database identified 210 patients treated for resectable CLM from 1996 to 2010. Results were correlated to four treatment groups: posthepatectomy adjuvant only, prehepatectomy preoperative only, peri-operative (preoperative and adjuvant), and surgery only. Seventy-nine (37.6%) patients received posthepatectomy adjuvant only treatment, 33 (15.7%) received prehepatectomy preoperative only treatment, 46 (21.9%) received perioperative (preoperative and adjuvant) treatment, whereas 52 (24.8%) received surgery alone. Preoperative and adjuvant systemic chemotherapy regimens were as follows: 23 (29.1%) and 18 (14.4%) received a 5-fluorouracil monotherapy regimen, 19 (24.1%) and 31 (24.8%) received an irinotecan-based regimen, and 28 (35.4%) and 37 (29.6%) received an oxaliplatin-based regimen. Nine (11.4%) and 12 (9.6%) received some other unknown combination. Treatment groups showed no difference in gender, mean tumor size, number of tumors, margin status, or postoperative complications with the only difference being a higher incidence of metachronous tumors in the preoperative only and perioperative groups (P = 0.01). Median follow-up and overall survival were 25 and 41 months, respectively. The adjuvant, preoperative, perioperative, and surgery only groups had a median survival time of 48, 35, 39, and 29 months, respectively (log-rank P = 0.04). Independent predictors of overall survival on multivariate analysis included treatment algorithm used and postoperative complication status. Adjuvant only systemic therapy was associated with an improved survival in resectable CLM. Prospective randomized trials are needed to confirm these findings.

Measles and the canonical path to elimination

All World Health Organization regions have set measles elimination goals. We find that as countries progress toward these goals, they undergo predictable changes in the size and frequency of measles outbreaks. A country’s position on this “canonical path” is driven by both measles control activities and demographic factors, which combine to change the effective size of the measles-susceptible population, thereby driving the country through theoretically established dynamic regimes. Further, position on the path to elimination provides critical information for guiding vaccination efforts, such as the age profile of susceptibility, that could only otherwise be obtained through costly field studies or sophisticated analysis. Equipped with this information, countries can gain insight into their current and future measles epidemiology and select appropriate strategies to more quickly achieve elimination goals.

The SLAC RCE Platform for ProtoDUNE

The ProtoDUNE-SP is a single-phase liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) prototype for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). Signals from 15,360 electronic channels are received by 60 Reconfigurable Cluster Elements (RCEs), which are processing elements designed at SLAC for a wide range of applications and are based upon the “system-onchip” Xilinx Zynq family of FPGAs. The RCEs are housed in industry-standard ATCA shelves on a custom blade, called the Cluster on Board (COB). The RCE platform and its processing functions for the ProtoDUNE-SP will be presented.

Ascertaining the burden of invasive Salmonella disease in hospitalised febrile children aged under four years in Blantyre, Malawi

Typhoid fever is endemic across sub-Saharan Africa. However, estimates of the burden of typhoid are undermined by insufficient blood volumes and lack of sensitivity of blood culture. Here, we aimed to address this limitation by exploiting pre-enrichment culture followed by PCR, alongside routine blood culture to improve typhoid case detection. We carried out a prospective diagnostic cohort study and enrolled children (aged 0-4 years) with non-specific febrile disease admitted to a tertiary hospital in Blantyre, Malawi from August 2014 to July 2016. Blood was collected for culture (BC) and real-time PCR after a pre-enrichment culture in tryptone soy broth and ox-bile. DNA was subjected to PCR for invA (Pan-Salmonella), staG (S. Typhi), and fliC (S. Typhimurium) genes. A positive PCR was defined as invA plus either staG or fliC (CT<29). IgM and IgG ELISA against four S. Typhi antigens was also performed. In total, 643 children (median age 1.3 years) with nonspecific febrile disease were enrolled; 31 (4.8%) were BC positive for Salmonella (n = 13 S. Typhi, n = 16 S. Typhimurium, and n = 2 S. Enteritidis). Pre-enrichment culture of blood followed by PCR identified a further 8 S. Typhi and 15 S. Typhimurium positive children. IgM and IgG titres to the S. Typhi antigen STY1498 (haemolysin) were significantly higher in children that were PCR positive but blood culture negative compared to febrile children with all other non-typhoid illnesses. The addition of pre-enrichment culture and PCR increased the case ascertainment of invasive Salmonella disease in children by 62-94%. These data support recent burden estimates that highlight the insensitivity of blood cultures and support the targeting of pre-school children for typhoid vaccine prevention in Africa. Blood culture with real-time PCR following pre-enrichment should be used to further refine estimates of vaccine effectiveness in typhoid vaccine trials.

A comparison of four risk models for the prediction of cardiovascular complications in patients with a history of atrial fibrillation undergoing non-cardiac surgery

It is unclear how best to predict peri-operative cardiovascular risk in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing non-cardiac surgery. This study examined the accuracy of the revised cardiac risk index and three atrial fibrillation thrombo-embolic risk models for predicting 30-day cardiovascular events after non-cardiac surgery in patients with a pre-operative history of atrial fibrillation. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 28 centres from 2007 to 2013 of 40,004 patients ≥ 45 years of age undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery who were followed until 30 days after surgery for cardiovascular events (defined as myocardial injury, heart failure, stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest or cardiovascular death). The 2088 patients with a pre-operative history of atrial fibrillation were at higher risk of peri-operative cardiovascular events compared with the 34,830 patients without a history of atrial fibrillation (29% vs. 13%, respectively, adjusted odds ratio 1.30 (95%CI 1.17-1.45). Compared with the revised cardiac risk index (c-index 0.60), all atrial fibrillation thrombo-embolic risk scores were significantly better at predicting peri-operative cardiovascular events: CHADS₂ (c-index 0.62); CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc (c-index 0.63); and R₂ CHADS₂ (c-index 0.65), respectively. Although the three thrombo-embolic risk prediction models were significantly better than the revised cardiac risk index for prediction of peri-operative cardiovascular events, none of the four models exhibited strong discrimination metrics. There remains a need to develop a better peri-operative risk prediction model.

Lesion distribution in cases of canine atopic dermatitis in South Australia

OBJECTIVE

To determine the lesion distribution patterns in different breeds of dogs affected by atopic dermatitis in South Australia.

METHODS

The presence or absence of erythematous skin lesions in 267 cases of canine atopic dermatitis (CAD) was recorded across 36 anatomical sites. Breeds represented by ≥ 9 dogs were included in the analysis. The percentage of dogs showing lesions at each of the body sites was calculated and illustrated on colour-coded diagrams. Variations in affected body sites within and between breeds were compared using Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA and Dunn's multiple comparison tests.

RESULTS

The prevalence of skin lesions at different body sites differed significantly both in the population as a whole and within breeds. The sites affected in ≥ 75% dogs were the dorsal and ventral aspects of the front and hind paws. The sites affected in 50-74% were the medial pinnae, axillae, ventral chest, abdomen and perineum. Sites affected in 25-49% of dogs included the face, periocular region and forelimb. Remaining body sites were affected in < 25% of dogs. Analysis at the breed level revealed some differences from this standard distribution pattern.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study confirmed the typical lesion distributions seen in CAD and highlighted some subtle differences in breeds commonly seen in South Australia. This will be useful for clinical practitioners in prioritising differential diagnoses for pruritic skin conditions.

Septic pericarditis and pericardial abscess secondary to a migrating foreign body in a dog

Abscess formation in the pericardial space has been described as a rare complication of trauma, congenital defects, penetrating foreign body, or extension of local myocardial infection in the dog. Presented here is a case of a juvenile dog with septic pericardial effusion secondary to an isolated intrapericardial abscess. Surgical pericardiectomy was successful in removing the abscess and nidus for septic effusion in this patient, and histopathology of the abscess tissue was suggestive of foreign plant material migration as the nidus for abscess formation. Recheck echocardiogram at the six-month postoperative period showed no recurrence of pericardial effusion or abscessation. Although abscess formation and septic pericarditis secondary to foreign body migration is an uncommon cause for large volume pericardial effusion, this should be considered as a differential particularly in a young and previously healthy dog.

Characterizing the impact of spatial clustering of susceptibility for measles elimination

Measles elimination efforts are primarily focused on achieving and maintaining national vaccination coverage goals, based on estimates of the critical vaccination threshold (Vc): the proportion of the population that must be immune to prevent sustained epidemics. Traditionally, Vc estimates assume evenly mixing populations, an invalid assumption. If susceptible individuals preferentially contact one another, communities may remain vulnerable to epidemics even when vaccination coverage targets are met at the national level. Here we present a simple method to estimate Vc and the effective reproductive number, R, while accounting for spatial clustering of susceptibility. For measles, assuming R0 = 15 and 95% population immunity, adjustment for high clustering of susceptibility increases R from 0.75 to 1.29, Vc from 93% to 96%, and outbreak probability after a single introduction from <1% to 23%. The impact of clustering remains minimal until vaccination coverage nears elimination levels. We illustrate our approach using Demographic and Health Survey data from Tanzania and show how non-vaccination clustering potentially contributed to continued endemic transmission of measles virus during the last two decades. Our approach demonstrates why high national vaccination coverage sometimes fails to achieve measles elimination, and that a shift from national to subnational focus is needed as countries approach elimination.

Nanoencapsulation of phase change materials for advanced thermal energy storage systems

Phase change materials (PCMs) allow the storage of large amounts of latent heat during phase transition. They have the potential to both increase the efficiency of renewable energies such as solar power through storage of excess energy, which can be used at times of peak demand; and to reduce overall energy demand through passive thermal regulation. 198.3 million tons of oil equivalent were used in the EU in 2013 for heating. However, bulk PCMs are not suitable for use without prior encapsulation. Encapsulation in a shell material provides benefits such as protection of the PCM from the external environment and increased specific surface area to improve heat transfer. This review highlights techniques for the encapsulation of both organic and inorganic PCMs, paying particular attention to nanoencapsulation (capsules with sizes <1 μm). We also provide insight on future research, which should focus on (i) the development of multifunctional shell materials to improve lifespan and thermal properties and (ii) advanced mass manufacturing techniques for the economically viable production of PCM capsules, making it possible to utilize waste heat in intelligent passive thermal regulation systems, employing controlled, "on demand" energy release/uptake.

Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea

We report on and evaluate the process and findings of a real-time modeling exercise in response to an outbreak of measles in Lola prefecture, Guinea, in early 2015 in the wake of the Ebola crisis. Multiple statistical methods for the estimation of the size of the susceptible (i.e., unvaccinated) population were applied to weekly reported measles case data on seven subprefectures throughout Lola. Stochastic compartmental models were used to project future measles incidence in each subprefecture in both an initial and a follow-up iteration of forecasting. Measles susceptibility among 1- to 5-year-olds was estimated to be between 24% and 43% at the beginning of the outbreak. Based on this high baseline susceptibility, initial projections forecasted a large outbreak occurring over approximately 10 weeks and infecting 40 children per 1,000. Subsequent forecasts based on updated data mitigated this initial projection, but still predicted a significant outbreak. A catch-up vaccination campaign took place at the same time as this second forecast and measles cases quickly receded. Of note, case reports used to fit models changed significantly between forecast rounds. Model-based projections of both current population risk and future incidence can help in setting priorities and planning during an outbreak response. A swiftly changing situation on the ground, coupled with data uncertainties and the need to adjust standard analytical approaches to deal with sparse data, presents significant challenges. Appropriate presentation of results as planning scenarios, as well as presentations of uncertainty and two-way communication, is essential to the effective use of modeling studies in outbreak response.

PABPN1 gene therapy for oculopharyngeal muscular dystrophy

Oculopharyngeal muscular dystrophy (OPMD) is an autosomal dominant, late-onset muscle disorder characterized by ptosis, swallowing difficulties, proximal limb weakness and nuclear aggregates in skeletal muscles. OPMD is caused by a trinucleotide repeat expansion in the PABPN1 gene that results in an N-terminal expanded polyalanine tract in polyA-binding protein nuclear 1 (PABPN1). Here we show that the treatment of a mouse model of OPMD with an adeno-associated virus-based gene therapy combining complete knockdown of endogenous PABPN1 and its replacement by a wild-type PABPN1 substantially reduces the amount of insoluble aggregates, decreases muscle fibrosis, reverts muscle strength to the level of healthy muscles and normalizes the muscle transcriptome. The efficacy of the combined treatment is further confirmed in cells derived from OPMD patients. These results pave the way towards a gene replacement approach for OPMD treatment.

Oculopharyngeal muscular dystrophy is caused by trinucleotide repeat expansions in the PABPN1 gene. Here the authors use AAV-based gene therapy to knockdown the mutant gene and replace it with a wild-type allele, and show effectiveness in mice and in patient cells.

Abstract OT3-04-01: BRE12-158: A phase II randomized controlled trial of genomically directed therapy after preoperative chemotherapy in patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC)

Background: About 1/3 of patients with TNBC who receive preoperative therapy will experience a pathological complete response (pCR). Patients with residual disease have a markedly inferior overall survival (OS) compared to those who experience pCR. Recently, the CREATE-X trial demonstrated an improvement in disease free survival (DFS) and OS for post-neoadjuvant capecitebine; although the addition of capecitebine to standard therapy has not previously improved outcome across other non-selected adjuvant or neo-adjuvant trials. Prior data have also demonstrated that the residual tumors are genomically diverse and that these genetic changes are reflected at time of relapse.

Trial Design: This trial is a randomized phase II trial to determine whether a genomically guided therapy in the setting of incomplete response to standard neoadjuvant therapy will improve outcomes compared to standard of care. DNA from archived tumor samples collected at the time of surgery will be extracted and sequenced. The sequencing data will be interrogated for known genomic drivers of sensitivity or resistance to existing FDA approved agents. A cancer genomic tumor board (CGTB) will consider the genomic data along with the patient's prior treatment history, toxicities, and comorbidities and select the optimal therapy. Participants with a CGTB recommendation will be randomized to Experimental Arm A (genomically directed monotherapy) or Control Arm B (standard of care). Participants may have no CGTB recommendation either because sequencing did not identify a matched drug or because the drug was contraindicated and will be assigned to Control Arm B.

Eligibility criteria: Patients must have histologically confirmed TNBC with completion of all definitive local therapy and no evidence of metastatic disease. There must be significant residual disease characterized by &gt;2cm primary tumor, or lymph node positivity or RCB classification II or III. An FFPE tumor block with tumor cellularity &gt;20% is required. All patients must have completed preoperative chemotherapy including a taxane or anthracycline or both.

Specific aims: The Primary Aim is to compare 2-year DFS with a genomically directed therapy vs. standard of care. Secondary Aims include 1-year DFS, 5-year OS, collection of archival specimens for correlative studies, and to describe toxicities. Exploratory Aims are to describe the evolution of genomically directed therapies during the course of the study and to evaluate the drug specific effect on efficacy and toxicity.

Statistical methods: In order to detect an improvement in the fraction of patients free from disease at 2-year from 40% in the control Arm B to 63.2% in the genomically directed Experimental Arm A (corresponding to an HR=0.5), 136 participants will have 80% power to detect a difference in DFS using a two-side log-rank test with 0.05 level of significance.

Present accrual/target accrual: 38 accrued of 136 to be randomized.

Citation Format: Schneider B, Miller KD, Badve S, O'Neil B, Helft P, Chitambar C, Falkson C, Nanda R, McCormick M, Danso M, Blaya M, Langdon R, Lippman M, Paplomata E, Walling R, Thompson M, Robin E, Aggarwal L, Shalaby I, Canfield V, Adesunloye B, Lee T, Daily K, Ma C, Erban J, Radhakrishnan N, Bruetman D, Graham M, Reddy NA, Lynce FC, Radovich M. BRE12-158: A phase II randomized controlled trial of genomically directed therapy after preoperative chemotherapy in patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2016 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2016 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(4 Suppl):Abstract nr OT3-04-01.

The prediction of postoperative stroke or death in patients with preoperative atrial fibrillation undergoing non-cardiac surgery: a VISION sub-study

BACKGROUND

The optimal means of pre-operative risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the accuracy of AF thromboembolic risk models (the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and R2CHADS2 scores) for predicting 30-day stroke and/or all-cause mortality after non-cardiac surgery in patients with preoperative AF, and to compare these risk scores with the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI).

PATIENTS/METHODS

A multicentre (8 countries, 2007-2011) prospective cohort study of patients ≥ 45 years of age undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery, who were followed until 30 days after surgery. We calculated c-statistics for each risk prediction model and net reclassification improvements (NRIs) compared with the RCRI.

RESULTS

The 961 patients with preoperative AF were at higher risk of any cardiovascular event in the 30 days postoperatively compared with the 13 001 patients without AF: 26.6% vs. 9.0%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.88. All thromboembolic risk scores predicted postoperative death just as well as the RCRI (with c-indices between 0.67 and 0.72). Compared with the RCRI (which had a c-index of 0.64 for 30-day stroke/death), the CHADS2 (c-index, 0.67; NRI, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.02-0.61) significantly improved postoperative stroke/mortality risk prediction, largely due to improved discrimination of patients who did not subsequently have an event.

CONCLUSIONS

In AF patients, the three thromboembolic risk scores performed similarly to the RCRI in predicting death within 30 days and the CHADS2 score was the best predictor of postoperative stroke/death regardless of type of surgery.