Correction: What gaps remain in the HIV cascade of care? Results of a population-based survey in Nsanje District, Malawi

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248410.].

Maintaining HIV testing and treatment services in Zambia during COVID-19: a story of success and resilience

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by a virus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. As countries struggled to control the spread of the virus through among other measures closure of health facilities, repurposing of health care workers, and restrictions on people's movement, HIV service delivery was affected.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of COVID-19 on HIV service delivery in Zambia by comparing uptake of HIV services before and during COVID-19.

METHODS

We used repeated cross-sectional quarterly and monthly data on HIV testing, HIV positivity rate, people living with HIV initiating ART and use of essential hospital services from July 2018 to December 2020. We assessed quarterly trends and measured proportionate changes comparing periods before and during COVID-19 divided into three different comparison time frames: (1) annual comparison 2019 versus 2020; (2) April to December 2019 versus same period in 2020; and (3) Quarter 1 of 2020 as base period versus each of the other quarters of year 2020.

RESULTS

Annual HIV testing dropped by 43.7% (95%CI 43.6-43.7) in 2020 compared to 2019 and was similar by sex. Overall, annual recorded number of newly diagnosed PLHIV fell by 26.5% (95% CI 26.37-26.73) in 2020 compared to 2019, but HIV positivity rate was higher in 2020, 6.44% (95%CI 6.41-6.47) compared to 4.94% (95% CI 4.92-4.96) in 2019. Annual ART initiation dropped by 19.9% (95%CI 19.7-20.0) in 2020 compared to 2019 while use of essential hospital services dropped during the early months of COVID-19 April to August 2020 but picked up later in the year.

CONCLUSION

While COVID-19 had a negative impact on health service delivery, its impact on HIV service delivery was not huge. HIV policies that were implemented before COVID-19 on testing made it easier to adopt COVID-19 control measures and to continue providing HIV testing services without much disruption.

HIV, sexual violence, and termination of pregnancy among adolescent and adult female sex workers in Malawi: A respondent-driven sampling study

Female Sex Workers (FSWs) are a hard-to-reach and understudied population, especially those who begin selling sex at a young age. In one of the most economically disadvantaged regions in Malawi, a large population of women is engaged in sex work surrounding predominantly male work sites and transport routes. A cross-sectional study in February and April 2019 in Nsanje district used respondent driven sampling (RDS) to recruit women ≥13 years who had sexual intercourse (with someone other than their main partner) in exchange for money or goods in the last 30 days. A standardized questionnaire was filled in; HIV, syphilis, gonorrhea, and chlamydia tests were performed. CD4 count and viral load (VL) testing occurred for persons living with HIV (PLHIV). Among 363 study participants, one-quarter were adolescents 13-19 years (25.9%; n = 85). HIV prevalence was 52.6% [47.3-57.6] and increased with age: from 14.7% (13-19 years) to 87.9% (≥35 years). HIV status awareness was 95.2% [91.3-97.4], ART coverage was 98.8% [95.3-99.7], and VL suppression 83.2% [77.1-88.0], though adolescent FSWs were less likely to be virally suppressed than adults (62.8% vs. 84.4%). Overall syphilis prevalence was 29.7% [25.3-43.5], gonorrhea 9.5% [6.9-12.9], and chlamydia 12.5% [9.3-16.6]. 72.4% had at least one unwanted pregnancy, 17.9% had at least one abortion (40.1% of which were unsafe). Half of participants reported experiencing sexual violence (SV) (47.6% [42.5-52.7]) and more than one-tenth (14.2%) of all respondents experienced SV perpetrated by a police officer. Our findings show high levels of PLHIV-FSWs engaged in all stages of the HIV cascade of care. The prevalence of HIV, other STIs, unwanted pregnancy, unsafe abortion, and sexual violence remains extremely high. Peer-led approaches contributed to levels of ART coverage and HIV status awareness similar to those found in the general district population, despite the challenges and risks faced by FSWs.

Evaluation of HRP2 and pLDH-based rapid diagnostic tests for malaria and prevalence of pfhrp2/3 deletions in Aweil, South Sudan

BACKGROUND

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for malaria are the primary tool for malaria diagnosis in sub-Saharan Africa but the utility of the most commonly used histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) antigen-based tests is limited in high transmission settings due to the long duration of positivity after successful malaria treatment. HRP2 tests are also threatened by the emergence of Plasmodium that do not carry pfhrp2 or pfhrp 3 genes. Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH)-based tests are promising alternatives, but less available. This study assessed the performances of HRP2 and pLDH(pan) tests under field conditions.

METHODS

The study performed a prospective facility-based diagnostic evaluation of two malaria RDTs in Aweil, South Sudan, during the high transmission season. Capillary blood by fingerprick was collected from 800 children under 15 years of age with fever and no signs of severity. SD Bioline HRP2 and CareStart pLDH(pan) RDTs were performed in parallel, thick and thin smears for microscopy were examined, and dried blood was used for PCR testing.

RESULTS

Using microscopy as the gold standard, the sensitivity of both tests was estimated at  > 99%, but the specificity of each was lower: 55.0% for the pLDH test and 61.7% for the HRP2 test. When using PCR as the gold standard, the sensitivity of both tests was lower than the values assessed using microscopy (97.0% for pLDH and 96.5% for HRP2), but the specificity increased (65.1% for pLDH and 72.9% for HRP2). Performance was similar across different production lots, sex, and age. Specificity of both the pLDH and HRP2 tests was significantly lower in children who reported taking a therapeutic course of anti-malarials in the 2 months prior to enrollment. The prevalence of pfhrp2/3 deletions in the study population was 0.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

The low specificity of the pLDH RDT in this setting confirms previous results and suggests a problem with this specific test. The prevalence of pfhrp2/3 deletions in the study area warrants continued monitoring and underscores the relevance of assessing deletion prevalence nationally. Improved malaria RDTs for high-transmission environments are needed.

What gaps remain in the HIV cascade of care? Results of a population-based survey in Nsanje District, Malawi

INTRODUCTION

The Malawi Ministry of Health (MoH) has been in collaboration with Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) to increase access to quality HIV care through decentralization of antiretroviral therapy (ART) diagnosis and treatment from hospital to clinics in Nsanje District since 2011. A population-based household survey was implemented to provide information on HIV prevalence and cascade of care to inform and prioritize community-based HIV interventions in the district.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted between September 2016 and January 2017. Using two-stage cluster sampling, eligible adult individuals aged ≥15 years living in the selected households were asked to participate. Participants were interviewed and tested for HIV at home. Those tested HIV-positive had their HIV-RNA viral load (VL) measured, regardless of their ART status. All participants tested HIV-positive at the time of the survey were advised to report their HIV test result to the health facility of their choice that MSF was supported in the district. HIV-RNA VL results were made available in this health facility.

RESULTS

Among 5,315 eligible individuals, 91.1% were included in the survey and accepted an HIV test. The overall prevalence was 12.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 11.2-13.0) and was higher in women than in men: 14.0% versus 9.5%, P<0.001. Overall HIV-positive status awareness was 80.0% (95%CI: 76.4-83.1) and was associated with sex (P<0.05). Linkage to care was 78.0% (95%CI: 74.3-81.2) and participants in care 76.2% (95%CI: 72.4-79.5). ART coverage among participants aware of their HIV-positive status was 95.3% (95%CI: 92.9-96.9) and was not associated with sex (P = 0.55). Viral load suppression among participants on ART was 89.9% (95%CI: 86.6-92.4) and was not statistically different by sex (p = 0.40).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite encouraging results in HIV testing coverage, cascade of care, and UNAIDS targets in Nsanje District, some gap remains in the first 90, specifically among men and young adults. Enhanced community engagement and new strategies of testing, such as index testing, could be implemented to identify those who are still undiagnosed, particularly men and young adults.

Sustained 10-year gain in adult life expectancy following antiretroviral therapy roll-out in rural Malawi: July 2005 to June 2014

Background: Improved life expectancy in high HIV prevalence populations has been observed since antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. However, it is unclear if the benefits are sustained, and the mortality among HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART is not well described. We assessed temporal change in mortality over 9 years in rural Malawi.

Methods: Within a demographic surveillance site in northern rural Malawi, we combined demographic, HIV and ART uptake data. We calculated life expectancy using Kaplan-Meier estimates, and compared mortality rates and rate ratios using Poisson regression, by period of ART availability (July 2005–June 2008, July 2008–June 2011 and July 2011–June 2014).

Results: Among 32 664 individuals there were 1424 deaths; 1930 individuals were known HIV-positive, of whom 1382 started ART. Overall, life expectancy at age 15 years increased by 10 years within 5 years of ART introduction, and plateaued. Age-standardized adult mortality rates declined from 11.3/1000 to 7.5/1000 person-years between the first and last time period. In July 2011-June 2014 compared with July 2005–June 2008, mortality declined in HIV-positive individuals on ART (rate ratio adjusted (aRR) for age, sex, location and education, 0.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2–0.5) and in those not (yet) on ART (aRR 0.3; 95%CI 0.1–0.5) but not in HIV-negative individuals (aRR 1.1; 95%CI 0.7–1.9).

Conclusions: Total population adult life expectancy increased toward that of HIV-negative individuals by 2011 and remained raised. The reduction in all-cause and HIV-related mortality in HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART suggests ART uptake is occurring at an earlier disease stage, particularly in women.

Unintended Childbearing and Child Growth in Northern Malawi

Objective The study aims to assess whether unintended children experience slower growth than intended children. Methods We analysed longitudinal data linked to the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site collected over three rounds between 2008 and 2011 on women’s fertility intentions and anthropometric data of children. Using the prospective information on fertility intention we assessed whether unintended children are more likely to be stunted than intended children. We applied Propensity Score Matching technique to control for endogenous factors affecting both the probability that a family has an unwanted birth and a child with poor health outcomes. Results We found that 24 % of children from unwanted pregnancies were stunted compared with 18 % of mistimed pregnancies and 17 % of those from wanted pregnancies. However, these differences in probability of children being stunted, though in the expected direction, were not significant either for large or small families, after controlling for age. The number of children in the household was associated with stunting and boys were substantially more likely to be stunted than girls. Conclusion We found no significance difference in probability of being stunted by mother’s fertility intention.

Failing to progress or progressing to fail? Age-for-grade heterogeneity and grade repetition in primary schools in Karonga district, northern Malawi

Timely progression through school is an important measure for school performance, completion and the onset of other life transitions for adolescents. This study examines the risk factors for grade repetition and establishes the extent to which age-for-grade heterogeneity contributes to subsequent grade repetition at early and later stages of school. Using data from a demographic surveillance site in Karonga district, northern Malawi, a cohort of 8174 respondents (ages 5-24 years) in primary school was followed in 2010 and subsequent grade repetition observed in 2011. Grade repetition was more common among those at early (grades 1-3) and later (grades 7-8) stages of school, with little variation by sex. Being under-age or over-age in school has different implications on schooling outcomes, depending on the stage of schooling. After adjusting for other risk factors, boys and girls who were under-age at early stages were at least twice as likely to repeat a grade as those at the official age-for-grade (girls: adjusted OR 2.06 p < 0.01; boys: adjusted OR 2.37 p < 0.01); while those over-age at early stages were about 30% less likely to repeat (girls: adjusted OR 0.65 p < 0.01; boys: adjusted OR 0.72 p < 0.01). Being under/over-age at later grades (4-8) was not associated with subsequent repetition but being over-age was associated with dropout. Other risk factors identified that were associated with repetition included both family-level factors (living away from their mother, having young children in the household, lower paternal education) and school-level factors (higher student-teacher ratio, proportion of female teachers and schools without access to water). Reducing direct and indirect costs of schooling for households; and improving school quality and resources at early stages of school may enable timely progression at early stages for greater retention at later stages.

Reliability of reporting of HIV status and antiretroviral therapy usage during verbal autopsies: a large prospective study in rural Malawi

Objective

Verbal autopsies (VAs) are interviews with a relative or friend of the deceased; VAs are a technique used in surveillance sites in many countries with incomplete death certification. The goal of this study was to assess the accuracy and validity of data on HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) usage reported in VAs and their influence on physician attribution of cause of death.

Design

This was a prospective cohort study.

Methods

The Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site monitors demographic events in a population in a rural area of northern Malawi; a VA is attempted on all deaths reported. VAs are reviewed by clinicians, who, with additional HIV test information collected pre-mortem, assign a cause of death. We linked HIV/ART information reported by respondents during adult VAs to database information on HIV testing and ART use and analysed agreement using chi-square and kappa statistics. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyse factors associated with agreement.

Results

From 2003 to 2014, out of a total of 1,952 VAs, 80% of respondents reported the HIV status of the deceased. In 2013–2014, this figure was 99%. Of those with an HIV status known to the study, there was 89% agreement on HIV status between the VA and pre-mortem data, higher for HIV-negative people (92%) than HIV-positive people (83%). There was 84% agreement on whether the deceased had started ART, and 72% of ART initiation dates matched within 1 year.

Conclusions

In this population, HIV/ART information was often disclosed during a VA and matched well with other data sources. Reported HIV/ART status appears to be a reliable source of information to help classification of cause of death.

Predictors of Uptake and Timeliness of Newly Introduced Pneumococcal and Rotavirus Vaccines, and of Measles Vaccine in Rural Malawi: A Population Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Malawi introduced pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) and monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1) in 2011 and 2012 respectively, and is planning the introduction of a second-dose measles vaccine (MV). We assessed predictors of availability, uptake and timeliness of these vaccines in a rural Malawian setting.

METHODS

Commencing on the first date of PCV13 eligibility we conducted a prospective population-based birth cohort study of 2,616 children under demographic surveillance in Karonga District, northern Malawi who were eligible for PCV13, or from the date of RV1 introduction both PCV13 and RV1. Potential predictors of vaccine uptake and timeliness for PCV13, RV1 and MV were analysed respectively using robust Poisson and Cox regression.

RESULTS

Vaccine coverage was high for all vaccines, ranging from 86.9% for RV1 dose 2 to 95.4% for PCV13 dose 1. Median time delay for PCV13 dose 1 was 17 days (IQR 7-36), 19 days (IQR 8-36) for RV1 dose 1 and 20 days (IQR 3-46) for MV. Infants born to lower educated or farming mothers and those living further away from the road or clinic were at greater risk of being not fully vaccinated and being vaccinated late. Delays in vaccination were also associated with non-facility birth. Vaccine stock-outs resulted in both a delay in vaccine timeliness and in a decrease in completion of schedule.

CONCLUSION

Despite high vaccination coverage in this setting, delays in vaccination were common. We identified programmatic and socio-demographic risk factors for uptake and timeliness of vaccination. Understanding who remains most vulnerable to be unvaccinated allows for focussed delivery thereby increasing population coverage and maximising the equitable benefits of universal vaccination programmes.

Patterns and risk factors for deaths from external causes in rural Malawi over 10 years: a prospective population-based study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the pattern or risk factors for deaths from external causes in sub-Saharan Africa: there is a lack of reliable data, and public health priorities have been focussed on other causes. This study assessed the prevalence and risk factor for deaths from external causes in rural Malawi.

METHODS

We analysed data from 2002-2012 from the Karonga demographic surveillance site which covers ~35,000 people in rural northern Malawi. Verbal autopsies with clinician coding are used to assign cause of death. Repeated annual surveys capture data on socio-economic factors. Using Poisson regression models we calculated age, sex and cause-specific rates and rate ratios of external deaths. We used a nested case-control study, matched on age, sex and time period, to investigate risk factors for these deaths, using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

In 315,580 person years at risk (pyar) there were 2673 deaths, including 143 from external causes. The mortality rate from external causes was 47.1/100,000 pyar (95 % CI 32.5-68.2) among under-fives; 20.1/100,000 pyar (95 % CI 13.1-32.2) among 5-14 year olds; 46.3/100,000 pyar (95 % CI 35.8-59.9) among 15-44 year olds; and 98.7/100,000 pyar (95 % CI 71.8-135.7) among those aged ≥45 years. Drowning (including four deaths in people with epilepsy), road injury and suicide were the leading external causes. Adult males had the highest rates (100.7/100,000 pyar), compared to 21.8/100,000pyar in adult females, and the rate continued to increase with increasing age in men. Alcohol contributed to 21 deaths, all in adult males. Children had high rates of drowning (9.2/100,000 pyar, 95 % CI 5.5-15.6) but low rates of road injury (2.6/100,000 pyar, 95 % CI 1.0-7.0). Among 5-14 year olds, attending school was associated with fewer deaths from external causes than among those who had never attended school (adjusted OR 0.15, 95 % CI 0.08-0.81). Fishermen had increased risks of death from drowning and suicide compared to farmers.

DISCUSSION

In this population the rate of deaths from external causes was lowest at age 5-14 years. Adult males had the highest rate of death from external causes, 5 times the rate in adult females. Drowning, road injury and suicide were the leading causes of death; alcohol consumption contributed to more than one quarter of the deaths in men

CONCLUSIONS

The high proportion of alcohol-related deaths in men, the predominance of drowning, deaths linked to uncontrolled epilepsy, and the possible protective effect of school attendance suggest areas for intervention.

Mortality from external causes in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites

BACKGROUND

Mortality from external causes, of all kinds, is an important component of overall mortality on a global basis. However, these deaths, like others in Africa and Asia, are often not counted or documented on an individual basis. Overviews of the state of external cause mortality in Africa and Asia are therefore based on uncertain information. The INDEPTH Network maintains longitudinal surveillance, including cause of death, at population sites across Africa and Asia, which offers important opportunities to document external cause mortality at the population level across a range of settings.

OBJECTIVE

To describe patterns of mortality from external causes at INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories.

DESIGN

All deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates.

RESULTS

A total of 5,884 deaths due to external causes were documented over 11,828,253 person-years. Approximately one-quarter of those deaths were to children younger than 15 years. Causes of death were dominated by childhood drowning in Bangladesh, and by transport-related deaths and intentional injuries elsewhere. Detailed mortality rates are presented by cause of death, age group, and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

The patterns of external cause mortality found here generally corresponded with expectations and other sources of information, but they fill some important gaps in population-based mortality data. They provide an important source of information to inform potentially preventive intervention designs.

HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

BACKGROUND

As the HIV/AIDS pandemic has evolved over recent decades, Africa has been the most affected region, even though a large proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths have not been documented at the individual level. Systematic application of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in defined populations provides an opportunity to assess the mortality burden of the pandemic from individual data.

OBJECTIVE

To present standardised comparisons of HIV/AIDS-related mortality at sites across Africa and Asia, including closely related causes of death such as pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and pneumonia.

DESIGN

Deaths related to HIV/AIDS were extracted from individual demographic and VA data from 22 INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia. VA data were standardised to WHO 2012 standard causes of death assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Between-site comparisons of mortality rates were standardised using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population.

RESULTS

The dataset covered a total of 10,773 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, observed over 12,204,043 person-years. HIV/AIDS-related mortality fractions and mortality rates varied widely across Africa and Asia, with highest burdens in eastern and southern Africa, and lowest burdens in Asia. There was evidence of rapidly declining rates at the sites with the heaviest burdens. HIV/AIDS mortality was also strongly related to PTB mortality. On a country basis, there were strong similarities between HIV/AIDS mortality rates at INDEPTH sites and those derived from modelled estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Measuring HIV/AIDS-related mortality continues to be a challenging issue, all the more so as anti-retroviral treatment programmes alleviate mortality risks. The congruence between these results and other estimates adds plausibility to both approaches. These data, covering some of the highest mortality observed during the pandemic, will be an important baseline for understanding the future decline of HIV/AIDS.

Pregnancy-related mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

Background

Women continue to die in unacceptably large numbers around the world as a result of pregnancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Part of the problem is a lack of accurate, population-based information characterising the issues and informing solutions. Population surveillance sites, such as those operated within the INDEPTH Network, have the potential to contribute to bridging the information gaps.

Objective

To describe patterns of pregnancy-related mortality at INDEPTH Network Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia in terms of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and cause-specific mortality rates.

Design

Data on individual deaths among women of reproductive age (WRA) (15–49) resident in INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database using the INDEPTH 2013 population standard, the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) standard, and the InterVA model for assigning cause of death.

Results

These analyses are based on reports from 14 INDEPTH sites, covering 14,198 deaths among WRA over 2,595,605 person-years observed. MMRs varied between 128 and 461 per 100,000 live births, while maternal mortality rates ranged from 0.11 to 0.74 per 1,000 person-years. Detailed rates per cause are tabulated, including analyses of direct maternal, indirect maternal, and incidental pregnancy-related deaths across the 14 sites.

Conclusions

As expected, these findings confirmed unacceptably high continuing levels of maternal mortality. However, they also demonstrate the effectiveness of INDEPTH sites and of the VA methods applied to arrive at measurements of maternal mortality that are essential for planning effective solutions and monitoring programmatic impacts.

Measuring causes of adult mortality in rural northern Malawi over a decade of change

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy could be more widely used if interpretation by computer algorithm could be relied on. We assessed how InterVA-4 results compared with clinician review in diagnosing HIV/AIDS-related deaths over the period of antiretroviral (ART) roll-out.

DESIGN

In the Karonga Prevention Study demographic surveillance site in northern Malawi, all deaths are followed by verbal autopsy using a semi-structured questionnaire. Cause of death is assigned by two clinicians with a third as a tie-breaker. The clinician review diagnosis was compared with the InterVA diagnosis using the same questionnaire data, including all adult deaths from late 2002 to 2012. For both methods data on HIV status were used. ART was first available in the district from 2005, and within the demographic surveillance area from 2006.

RESULTS

There were 1,637 adult deaths, with verbal autopsy data for 1,615. Adult mortality and the proportion of deaths attributable to HIV/AIDS fell dramatically following ART introduction, but for each year the proportion attributed to HIV/AIDS by InterVA was lower than that attributed by clinician review. This was partly explained by the handling of TB cases. Using clinician review as the best available 'gold standard', for those aged 15-59, the sensitivity of InterVA for HIV/AIDS deaths was 59% and specificity 88%. Grouping HIV/AIDS/TB sensitivity was 78% and specificity 83%. Sensitivity was lower after widespread ART use.

CONCLUSIONS

InterVA underestimates the proportion of deaths due to HIV/AIDS. Accepting that it is unrealistic to try and differentiate TB and AIDS deaths would improve the estimates. Caution is needed in interpreting trends in causes of death as ART use may affect the performance of the algorithm.

The effect of antiretroviral therapy provision on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality at the population level--a comparative analysis of data from four settings in Southern and East Africa

OBJECTIVE

To provide a broad and up-to-date picture of the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level mortality in Southern and East Africa.

METHODS

Data on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality among 15-59 year olds were analysed from demographic surveillance sites (DSS) in Karonga (Malawi), Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda) and the Africa Centre (South Africa), using Poisson regression. Trends over time from up to 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 4-6 years afterwards, are presented, overall and by age and sex. For Masaka and Kisesa, trends are analysed separately for HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals. For Karonga and the Africa Centre, trends in AIDS and non-AIDS mortality are analysed using verbal autopsy data.

RESULTS

For all-cause mortality, overall rate ratios (RRs) comparing the period 2-6 years following ART roll-out with the pre-ART period were 0.58 (5.9 vs. 10.2 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Karonga, 0.79 (7.2 vs. 9.1 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Kisesa, 0.61 (6.7 compared with 11.0 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Masaka and 0.79 (14.8 compared with 18.6 deaths per 1000 person-years) in the Africa Centre DSS. The mortality decline was seen only in HIV-positive individuals/AIDS mortality, with no decline in HIV-negative individuals/non-AIDS mortality. Less difference was seen in Kisesa where ART uptake was lower.

CONCLUSIONS

Falls in all-cause mortality are consistent with ART uptake. The largest falls occurred where ART provision has been decentralised or available locally, suggesting that this is important.

Adult mortality and probable cause of death in rural northern Malawi in the era of HIV treatment

Objectives

Developing countries are undergoing demographic transition with a shift from high mortality caused by communicable diseases (CD) to lower mortality rates caused by non-communicable diseases (NCD). HIV/AIDS has disrupted this trend in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in recent years, HIV-associated mortality has been reduced with the introduction of widely available antiretroviral therapy (ART). Side effects of ART may lead to increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, raising the prospects of an accelerated transition towards NCD as the primary cause of death. We report population-based data to investigate changes in cause of death owing to NCD during the first 4 years after introduction of HIV treatment.

Methods

We analysed data from a demographic surveillance system in Karonga district, Malawi, from September 2004 to August 2009. ART was introduced in mid-2005. Clinician review of verbal autopsies conducted 2–6 weeks after a death was used to establish a single principal cause of death.

Results

Over the entire period, there were 905 deaths, AIDS death rate fell from 505 to 160/100 000 person-years, and there was no evidence of an increase in NCD rates. The proportion of total deaths attributable to AIDS fell from 42% to 17% and from NCD increased from 37% to 49%.

Discussion

Our findings show that 4 years after the introduction of ART into HIV care in Karonga district, all-cause mortality has fallen dramatically, with no evidence of an increase in deaths owing to NCD.

Profile: the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System

The Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Karonga HDSS) in northern Malawi currently has a population of more than 35 000 individuals under continuous demographic surveillance since completion of a baseline census (2002–2004). The surveillance system collects data on vital events and migration for individuals and for households. It also provides data on cause-specific mortality obtained by verbal autopsy for all age groups, and estimates rates of disease for specific presentations via linkage to clinical facility data. The Karonga HDSS provides a structure for surveys of socio-economic status, HIV sero-prevalence and incidence, sexual behaviour, fertility intentions and a sampling frame for other studies, as well as evaluating the impact of interventions, such as antiretroviral therapy and vaccination programmes. Uniquely, it relies on a network of village informants to report vital events and household moves, and furthermore is linked to an archive of biological samples and data from population surveys and other studies dating back three decades.