Computational framework for the generation of one-dimensional vascular models accounting for uncertainty in networks extracted from medical images

Patient-specific computational modeling is a popular, non-invasive method to answer medical questions. Medical images are used to extract geometric domains necessary to create these models, providing a predictive tool for clinicians. However, in vivo imaging is subject to uncertainty, impacting vessel dimensions essential to the mathematical modeling process. While there are numerous programs available to provide information about vessel length, radii, and position, there is currently no exact way to determine and calibrate these features. This raises the question, if we are building patient-specific models based on uncertain measurements, how accurate are the geometries we extract and how can we best represent a patient's vasculature? In this study, we develop a novel framework to determine vessel dimensions using change points. We explore the impact of uncertainty in the network extraction process on hemodynamics by varying vessel dimensions and segmenting the same images multiple times. Our analyses reveal that image segmentation, network size, and minor changes in radius and length have significant impacts on pressure and flow dynamics in rapidly branching structures and tapering vessels. Accordingly, we conclude that it is critical to understand how uncertainty in network geometry propagates to fluid dynamics, especially in clinical applications.

Characterization of differences in immune responses during bolus and continuous infusion endotoxin challenges using mathematical modelling

Endotoxin administration is commonly used to study the inflammatory response, and though traditionally given as a bolus injection, it can be administered as a continuous infusion over multiple hours. Several studies hypothesize that the latter better represents the prolonged and pronounced inflammation observed in conditions like sepsis. Yet very few experimental studies have administered endotoxin using both strategies, leaving significant gaps in determining the underlying mechanisms responsible for their differing immune responses. We used mathematical modelling to analyse cytokine data from two studies administering a 2 ng kg-1 dose of endotoxin, one as a bolus and the other as a continuous infusion over 4 h. Using our model, we simulated the dynamics of mean and subject-specific cytokine responses as well as the response to long-term endotoxin administration. Cytokine measurements revealed that the bolus injection led to significantly higher peaks for interleukin (IL)-8, while IL-10 reaches higher peaks during continuous administration. Moreover, the peak timing of all measured cytokines occurred later with continuous infusion. We identified three model parameters that significantly differed between the two administration methods. Monocyte activation of IL-10 was greater during the continuous infusion, while tumour necrosis factor α $ {\alpha} $ and IL-8 recovery rates were faster for the bolus injection. This suggests that a continuous infusion elicits a stronger, longer-lasting systemic reaction through increased stimulation of monocyte anti-inflammatory mediator production and decreased recovery of pro-inflammatory catalysts. Furthermore, the continuous infusion model exhibited prolonged inflammation with recurrent peaks resolving within 2 days during long-term (20-32 h) endotoxin administration.

Application and reduction of a nonlinear hyperelastic wall model capturing ex vivo relationships between fluid pressure, area, and wall thickness in normal and hypertensive murine left pulmonary arteries

Pulmonary hypertension is a cardiovascular disorder manifested by elevated mean arterial blood pressure (>20 mmHg) together with vessel wall stiffening and thickening due to alterations in collagen, elastin, and smooth muscle cells. Hypoxia-induced (type 3) pulmonary hypertension can be studied in animals exposed to a low oxygen environment for prolonged time periods leading to biomechanical alterations in vessel wall structure. This study introduces a novel approach to formulating a reduced order nonlinear elastic structural wall model for a large pulmonary artery. The model relating blood pressure and area is calibrated using ex vivo measurements of vessel diameter and wall thickness changes, under controlled pressure conditions, in left pulmonary arteries isolated from control and hypertensive mice. A two-layer, hyperelastic, and anisotropic model incorporating residual stresses is formulated using the Holzapfel-Gasser-Ogden model. Complex relations predicting vessel area and wall thickness with increasing blood pressure are derived and calibrated using the data. Sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation, subset selection, and physical plausibility arguments are used to systematically reduce the 16-parameter model to one in which a much smaller subset of identifiable parameters is estimated via solution of an inverse problem. Our final reduced one layer model includes a single set of three elastic moduli. Estimated ranges of these parameters demonstrate that nonlinear stiffening is dominated by elastin in the control animals and by collagen in the hypertensive animals. The pressure-area relation developed in this novel manner has potential impact on one-dimensional fluids network models of vessel wall remodeling in the presence of cardiovascular disease.

A topological data analysis study on murine pulmonary arterial trees with pulmonary hypertension

Pulmonary hypertension (PH), defined by a mean pulmonary arterial blood pressure above 20 mmHg in the main pulmonary artery, is a cardiovascular disease impacting the pulmonary vasculature. PH is accompanied by chronic vascular remodeling, wherein vessels become stiffer, large vessels dilate, and smaller vessels constrict. Some types of PH, including hypoxia-induced PH (HPH), also lead to microvascular rarefaction. This study analyzes the change in pulmonary arterial morphometry in the presence of HPH using novel methods from topological data analysis (TDA). We employ persistent homology to quantify arterial morphometry for control and HPH mice characterizing normalized arterial trees extracted from micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) images. We normalize generated trees using three pruning algorithms before comparing the topology of control and HPH trees. This proof-of-concept study shows that the pruning method affects the spatial tree statistics and complexity. We find that HPH trees are stiffer than control trees but have more branches and a higher depth. Relative directional complexities are lower in HPH animals in the right, ventral, and posterior directions. For the radius pruned trees, this difference is more significant at lower perfusion pressures enabling analysis of remodeling of larger vessels. At higher pressures, the arterial networks include more distal vessels. Results show that the right, ventral, and posterior relative directional complexities increase in HPH trees, indicating the remodeling of distal vessels in these directions. Strahler order pruning enables us to generate trees of comparable size, and results, at all pressure, show that HPH trees have lower complexity than the control trees. Our analysis is based on data from 6 animals (3 control and 3 HPH mice), and even though our analysis is performed in a small dataset, this study provides a framework and proof-of-concept for analyzing properties of biological trees using tools from Topological Data Analysis (TDA). Findings derived from this study bring us a step closer to extracting relevant information for quantifying remodeling in HPH.

Toward an optimal contraception dosing strategy

Anovulation refers to a menstrual cycle characterized by the absence of ovulation. Exogenous hormones such as synthetic progesterone and estrogen have been used to attain this state to achieve contraception. However, large doses are associated with adverse effects such as increased risk for thrombosis and myocardial infarction. This study utilizes optimal control theory on a modified menstrual cycle model to determine the minimum total exogenous estrogen/progesterone dose, and timing of administration to induce anovulation. The mathematical model correctly predicts the mean daily levels of pituitary hormones LH and FSH, and ovarian hormones E2, P4, and Inh throughout a normal menstrual cycle and reflects the reduction in these hormone levels caused by exogenous estrogen and/or progesterone. Results show that it is possible to reduce the total dose by 92% in estrogen monotherapy, 43% in progesterone monotherapy, and that it is most effective to deliver the estrogen contraceptive in the mid follicular phase. Finally, we show that by combining estrogen and progesterone the dose can be lowered even more. These results may give clinicians insights into optimal formulations and schedule of therapy that can suppress ovulation.

Parameter inference in a computational model of haemodynamics in pulmonary hypertension

Pulmonary hypertension (PH), defined by a mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP) greater than 20 mmHg, is characterized by increased pulmonary vascular resistance and decreased pulmonary arterial compliance. There are few measurable biomarkers of PH progression, but a conclusive diagnosis of the disease requires invasive right heart catheterization (RHC). Patient-specific cardiovascular systems-level computational models provide a potential non-invasive tool for determining additional indicators of disease severity. Using computational modelling, this study quantifies physiological parameters indicative of disease severity in nine PH patients. The model includes all four heart chambers, the pulmonary and systemic circulations. We consider two sets of calibration data: static (systolic and diastolic values) RHC data and a combination of static and continuous, time-series waveform data. We determine a subset of identifiable parameters for model calibration using sensitivity analyses and multi-start inference and perform posterior uncertainty quantification. Results show that additional waveform data enables accurate calibration of the right atrial reservoir and pump function across the PH cohort. Model outcomes, including stroke work and pulmonary resistance-compliance relations, reflect typical right heart dynamics in PH phenotypes. Lastly, we show that estimated parameters agree with previous, non-modelling studies, supporting this type of analysis in translational PH research.

Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome explained using a baroreflex response model

Patients with postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) experience an excessive increase in heart rate (HR) and low-frequency (∼0.1 Hz) blood pressure (BP) and HR oscillations upon head-up tilt (HUT). These responses are attributed to increased baroreflex (BR) responses modulating sympathetic and parasympathetic signalling. This study uses a closed-loop cardiovascular compartment model controlled by the BR to predict BP and HR dynamics in response to HUT. The cardiovascular model predicts these quantities in the left ventricle, upper and lower body arteries and veins. HUT is simulated by letting gravity shift blood volume (BV) from the upper to the lower body compartments, and the BR control is modelled using set-point functions modulating peripheral vascular resistance, compliance, and cardiac contractility in response to changes in mean carotid BP. We demonstrate that modulation of parameters characterizing BR sensitivity allows us to predict the persistent increase in HR and the low-frequency BP and HR oscillations observed in POTS patients. Moreover, by increasing BR sensitivity, inhibiting BR control of the lower body vasculature, and decreasing central BV, we demonstrate that it is possible to simulate patients with neuropathic and hyperadrenergic POTS.

Numerical predictions of shear stress and cyclic stretch in pulmonary hypertension due to left heart failure

Isolated post-capillary pulmonary hypertension (Ipc-PH) occurs due to left heart failure, which contributes to 1 out of every 9 deaths in the United States. In some patients, through unknown mechanisms, Ipc-PH transitions to combined pre-/post-capillary PH (Cpc-PH) and is associated with a dramatic increase in mortality. Altered mechanical forces and subsequent biological signaling in the pulmonary vascular bed likely contribute to the transition from Ipc-PH to Cpc-PH. However, even in a healthy pulmonary circulation, the mechanical forces in the smallest vessels (the arterioles, capillary bed, and venules) have not been quantitatively defined. This study is the first to examine this question via a computational fluid dynamics model of the human pulmonary arteries, arterioles, venules, and veins. Using this model, we predict temporal and spatial dynamics of cyclic stretch and wall shear stress with healthy and diseased hemodynamics. In the normotensive case for large vessels, numerical simulations show that large arteries have higher pressure and flow than large veins, as well as more pronounced changes in area throughout the cardiac cycle. In the microvasculature, shear stress increases and cyclic stretch decreases as vessel radius decreases. When we impose an increase in left atrial pressure to simulate Ipc-PH, shear stress decreases and cyclic stretch increases as compared to the healthy case. Overall, this model predicts pressure, flow, shear stress, and cyclic stretch that providing a way to analyze and investigate hypotheses related to disease progression in the pulmonary circulation.

A Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of Cytokine Expression and Human Immune Cell Activation in Response to the Pathogen Staphylococcus aureus

Cell-based mathematical models have previously been developed to simulate the immune system in response to pathogens. Mathematical modeling papers which study the human immune response to pathogens have predicted concentrations of a variety of cells, including activated and resting macrophages, plasma cells, and antibodies. This study aims to create a comprehensive mathematical model that can predict cytokine levels in response to a gram-positive bacterium, S. aureus by coupling previous models. To accomplish this, the cytokines Tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha (TNF-α), Interleukin 6 (IL-6), Interleukin 8 (IL-8), and Interleukin 10 (IL-10) are included to quantify the relationship between cytokine release from macrophages and the concentration of the pathogen, S. aureus, ex vivo. Partial differential equations (PDEs) are used to model cellular response and ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are used to model cytokine response, and interactions between both components produce a more robust and more complete systems-level understanding of immune activation. In the coupled cellular and cytokine model outlined in this paper, a low concentration of S. aureus is used to stimulate the measured cellular response and cytokine expression. Results show that our cellular activation and cytokine expression model characterizing septic conditions can predict ex vivo mechanisms in response to gram-negative and gram-positive bacteria. Our simulations provide new insights into how the human immune system responds to infections from different pathogens. Novel applications of these insights help in the development of more powerful tools and protocols in infection biology.

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of 1-D models of pulmonary hemodynamics in mice under control and hypertensive conditions

Pulmonary hypertension (PH), defined as an elevated mean blood pressure in the main pulmonary artery (MPA) at rest, is associated with vascular remodeling of both large and small arteries. PH has several sub-types that are all linked to high mortality rates. In this study, we use a one-dimensional (1-D) fluid dynamics model driven by in vivo measurements of MPA flow to understand how model parameters and network size influence MPA pressure predictions in the presence of PH. We compare model predictions with in vivo MPA pressure measurements from a control and a hypertensive mouse and analyze results in three networks of increasing complexity, extracted from micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) images. We introduce global scaling factors for boundary condition parameters and perform local and global sensitivity analysis to calculate parameter influence on model predictions of MPA pressure and correlation analysis to determine a subset of identifiable parameters. These are inferred using frequentist optimization and Bayesian inference via the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm. Frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty is computed for model parameters and MPA pressure predictions. Results show that MPA pressure predictions are most sensitive to distal vascular resistance and that parameter influence changes with increasing network complexity. Our outcomes suggest that PH leads to increased vascular stiffness and decreased peripheral compliance, congruent with clinical observations.

A multiscale model of vascular function in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension

Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) is caused by recurrent or unresolved pulmonary thromboemboli, leading to perfusion defects and increased arterial wave reflections. CTEPH treatment aims to reduce pulmonary arterial pressure and reestablish adequate lung perfusion, yet patients with distal lesions are inoperable by standard surgical intervention. Instead, these patients undergo balloon pulmonary angioplasty (BPA), a multisession, minimally invasive surgery that disrupts the thromboembolic material within the vessel lumen using a catheter balloon. However, there still lacks an integrative, holistic tool for identifying optimal target lesions for treatment. To address this insufficiency, we simulate CTEPH hemodynamics and BPA therapy using a multiscale fluid dynamics model. The large pulmonary arterial geometry is derived from a computed tomography (CT) image, whereas a fractal tree represents the small vessels. We model ring- and web-like lesions, common in CTEPH, and simulate normotensive conditions and four CTEPH disease scenarios; the latter includes both large artery lesions and vascular remodeling. BPA therapy is simulated by simultaneously reducing lesion severity in three locations. Our predictions mimic severe CTEPH, manifested by an increase in mean proximal pulmonary arterial pressure above 20 mmHg and prominent wave reflections. Both flow and pressure decrease in vessels distal to the lesions and increase in unobstructed vascular regions. We use the main pulmonary artery (MPA) pressure, a wave reflection index, and a measure of flow heterogeneity to select optimal target lesions for BPA. In summary, this study provides a multiscale, image-to-hemodynamics pipeline for BPA therapy planning for patients with inoperable CTEPH. NEW & NOTEWORTHY This article presents novel computational framework for predicting pulmonary hemodynamics in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension. The mathematical model is used to identify the optimal target lesions for balloon pulmonary angioplasty, combining simulated pulmonary artery pressure, wave intensity analysis, and a new quantitative metric of flow heterogeneity.

Global sensitivity analysis informed model reduction and selection applied to a Valsalva maneuver model

In this study, we develop a methodology for model reduction and selection informed by global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods. We apply these techniques to a control model that takes systolic blood pressure and thoracic tissue pressure data as inputs and predicts heart rate in response to the Valsalva maneuver (VM). The study compares four GSA methods based on Sobol' indices (SIs) quantifying the parameter influence on the difference between the model output and the heart rate data. The GSA methods include standard scalar SIs determining the average parameter influence over the time interval studied and three time-varying methods analyzing how parameter influence changes over time. The time-varying methods include a new technique, termed limited-memory SIs, predicting parameter influence using a moving window approach. Using the limited-memory SIs, we perform model reduction and selection to analyze the necessity of modeling both the aortic and carotid baroreceptor regions in response to the VM. We compare the original model to systematically reduced models including (i) the aortic and carotid regions, (ii) the aortic region only, and (iii) the carotid region only. Model selection is done quantitatively using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria and qualitatively by comparing the neurological predictions. Results show that it is necessary to incorporate both the aortic and carotid regions to model the VM.

Classification of orthostatic intolerance through data analytics

Imbalance in the autonomic nervous system can lead to orthostatic intolerance manifested by dizziness, lightheadedness, and a sudden loss of consciousness (syncope); these are common conditions, but they are challenging to diagnose correctly. Uncertainties about the triggering mechanisms and the underlying pathophysiology have led to variations in their classification. This study uses machine learning to categorize patients with orthostatic intolerance. We use random forest classification trees to identify a small number of markers in blood pressure, and heart rate time-series data measured during head-up tilt to (a) distinguish patients with a single pathology and (b) examine data from patients with a mixed pathophysiology. Next, we use Kmeans to cluster the markers representing the time-series data. We apply the proposed method analyzing clinical data from 186 subjects identified as control or suffering from one of four conditions: postural orthostatic tachycardia (POTS), cardioinhibition, vasodepression, and mixed cardioinhibition and vasodepression. Classification results confirm the use of supervised machine learning. We were able to categorize more than 95% of patients with a single condition and were able to subgroup all patients with mixed cardioinhibitory and vasodepressor syncope. Clustering results confirm the disease groups and identify two distinct subgroups within the control and mixed groups. The proposed study demonstrates how to use machine learning to discover structure in blood pressure and heart rate time-series data. The methodology is used in classification of patients with orthostatic intolerance. Diagnosing orthostatic intolerance is challenging, and full characterization of the pathophysiological mechanisms remains a topic of ongoing research. This study provides a step toward leveraging machine learning to assist clinicians and researchers in addressing these challenges. Graphical abstract Machine learning tools utilized to analyze heart rate (HR) and blood pressure (BP) time-series data from syncope and control patients. Results show that machine learning can provide accurate classification of disease groups for 98% of patients and we identified two subgroups within the control patients differentiated by their BP response.

A physiological model of the inflammatory-thermal-pain-cardiovascular interactions during an endotoxin challenge

KEY POINTS

Inflammation in response to bacterial endotoxin challenge impacts physiological functions, including cardiovascular, thermal and pain dynamics, although the mechanisms are poorly understood. We develop an innovative mathematical model incorporating interaction pathways between inflammation and physiological processes observed in response to an endotoxin challenge. We calibrate the model to individual data from 20 subjects in an experimental study of the human inflammatory and physiological responses to endotoxin, and we validate the model against human data from an independent study. Using the model to simulate patient responses to different treatment modalities reveals that a multimodal treatment combining several therapeutic strategies gives the best recovery outcome.

ABSTRACT

Uncontrolled, excessive production of pro-inflammatory mediators from immune cells and traumatized tissues can cause systemic inflammatory conditions such as sepsis, one of the ten leading causes of death in the USA, and one of the three leading causes of death in the intensive care unit. Understanding how inflammation affects physiological processes, including cardiovascular, thermal and pain dynamics, can improve a patient's chance of recovery after an inflammatory event caused by surgery or a severe infection. Although the effects of the autonomic response on the inflammatory system are well-known, knowledge about the reverse interaction is lacking. The present study develops a mathematical model analyzing the inflammatory system's interactions with thermal, pain and cardiovascular dynamics in response to a bacterial endotoxin challenge. We calibrate the model with individual data from an experimental study of the inflammatory and physiological responses to a one-time administration of endotoxin in 20 healthy young men and validate it against data from an independent endotoxin study. We use simulation to explore how various treatments help patients exposed to a sustained pathological input. The treatments explored include bacterial endotoxin adsorption, antipyretics and vasopressors, as well as combinations of these. Our findings suggest that the most favourable recovery outcome is achieved by a multimodal strategy, combining all three interventions to simultaneously remove endotoxin from the body and alleviate symptoms caused by the immune system as it fights the infection.

Assessing model mismatch and model selection in a Bayesian uncertainty quantification analysis of a fluid-dynamics model of pulmonary blood circulation

This study uses Bayesian inference to quantify the uncertainty of model parameters and haemodynamic predictions in a one-dimensional pulmonary circulation model based on an integration of mouse haemodynamic and micro-computed tomography imaging data. We emphasize an often neglected, though important source of uncertainty: in the mathematical model form due to the discrepancy between the model and the reality, and in the measurements due to the wrong noise model (jointly called 'model mismatch'). We demonstrate that minimizing the mean squared error between the measured and the predicted data (the conventional method) in the presence of model mismatch leads to biased and overly confident parameter estimates and haemodynamic predictions. We show that our proposed method allowing for model mismatch, which we represent with Gaussian processes, corrects the bias. Additionally, we compare a linear and a nonlinear wall model, as well as models with different vessel stiffness relations. We use formal model selection analysis based on the Watanabe Akaike information criterion to select the model that best predicts the pulmonary haemodynamics. Results show that the nonlinear pressure-area relationship with stiffness dependent on the unstressed radius predicts best the data measured in a control mouse.

Structural and hemodynamic properties of murine pulmonary arterial networks under hypoxia-induced pulmonary hypertension

Detection and monitoring of patients with pulmonary hypertension, defined as a mean blood pressure in the main pulmonary artery above 25 mmHg, requires a combination of imaging and hemodynamic measurements. This study demonstrates how to combine imaging data from microcomputed tomography images with hemodynamic pressure and flow waveforms from control and hypertensive mice. Specific attention is devoted to developing a tool that processes computed tomography images, generating subject-specific arterial networks in which one-dimensional fluid dynamics modeling is used to predict blood pressure and flow. Each arterial network is modeled as a directed graph representing vessels along the principal pathway to ensure perfusion of all lobes. The one-dimensional model couples these networks with structured tree boundary conditions representing the small arteries and arterioles. Fluid dynamics equations are solved in this network and compared to measurements of pressure in the main pulmonary artery. Analysis of microcomputed tomography images reveals that the branching ratio is the same in the control and hypertensive animals, but that the vessel length-to-radius ratio is significantly lower in the hypertensive animals. Fluid dynamics predictions show that in addition to changed network geometry, vessel stiffness is higher in the hypertensive animal models than in the control models.

Mechanistic model of hormonal contraception

Contraceptive drugs intended for family planning are used by the majority of married or in-union women in almost all regions of the world. The two most prevalent types of hormones associated with contraception are synthetic estrogens and progestins. Hormonal based contraceptives contain a dose of a synthetic progesterone (progestin) or a combination of a progestin and a synthetic estrogen. In this study we use mathematical modeling to understand better how these contraceptive paradigms prevent ovulation, special focus is on understanding how changes in dose impact hormonal cycling. To explain this phenomenon, we added two autocrine mechanisms essential to achieve contraception within our previous menstrual cycle models. This new model predicts mean daily blood concentrations of key hormones during a contraceptive state achieved by administering progestins, synthetic estrogens, or a combined treatment. Model outputs are compared with data from two clinical trials: one for a progestin only treatment and one for a combined hormonal treatment. Results show that contraception can be achieved with synthetic estrogen, with progestin, and by combining the two hormones. An advantage of the combined treatment is that a contraceptive state can be obtained at a lower dose of each hormone. The model studied here is qualitative in nature, but can be coupled with a pharmacokinetic/pharamacodynamic (PKPD) model providing the ability to fit exogenous inputs to specific bioavailability and affinity. A model of this type may allow insight into a specific drug's effects, which has potential to be useful in the pre-clinical trial stage identifying the lowest dose required to achieve contraception.

Deep phenotyping of cardiac function in heart transplant patients using cardiovascular system models

KEY POINTS

Right heart catheterization data from clinical records of heart transplant patients are used to identify patient-specific models of the cardiovascular system. These patient-specific cardiovascular models represent a snapshot of cardiovascular function at a given post-transplant recovery time point. This approach is used to describe cardiac function in 10 heart transplant patients, five of which had multiple right heart catheterizations allowing an assessment of cardiac function over time. These patient-specific models are used to predict cardiovascular function in the form of right and left ventricular pressure-volume loops and ventricular power, an important metric in the clinical assessment of cardiac function. Outcomes for the longitudinally tracked patients show that our approach was able to identify the one patient from the group of five that exhibited post-transplant cardiovascular complications.

ABSTRACT

Heart transplant patients are followed with periodic right heart catheterizations (RHCs) to identify post-transplant complications and guide treatment. Post-transplant positive outcomes are associated with a steady reduction of right ventricular and pulmonary arterial pressures, toward normal levels of right-side pressure (about 20 mmHg) measured by RHC. This study shows that more information about patient progression is obtained by combining standard RHC measures with mechanistic computational cardiovascular system models. The purpose of this study is twofold: to understand how cardiovascular system models can be used to represent a patient's cardiovascular state, and to use these models to track post-transplant recovery and outcome. To obtain reliable parameter estimates comparable within and across datasets, we use sensitivity analysis, parameter subset selection, and optimization to determine patient-specific mechanistic parameters that can be reliably extracted from the RHC data. Patient-specific models are identified for 10 patients from their first post-transplant RHC, and longitudinal analysis is carried out for five patients. Results of the sensitivity analysis and subset selection show that we can reliably estimate seven non-measurable quantities; namely, ventricular diastolic relaxation, systemic resistance, pulmonary venous elastance, pulmonary resistance, pulmonary arterial elastance, pulmonary valve resistance and systemic arterial elastance. Changes in parameters and predicted cardiovascular function post-transplant are used to evaluate the cardiovascular state during recovery of five patients. Of these five patients, only one showed inconsistent trends during recovery in ventricular pressure-volume relationships and power output. At the four-year post-transplant time point this patient exhibited biventricular failure along with graft dysfunction while the remaining four exhibited no cardiovascular complications.

Characterization of Blood Pressure and Heart Rate Oscillations of POTS Patients via Uniform Phase Empirical Mode Decomposition

OBJECTIVE

Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome (POTS) is associated with the onset of tachycardia upon postural change. The current diagnosis involves the measurement of heart rate (HR) and blood pressure (BP) during head-up tilt (HUT) or active standing test. A positive diagnosis is made if HR changes with more than 30 bpm (40 bpm in patients aged 12-19 years), ignoring all of the BP and most of the HR signals. This study examines 0.1 Hz oscillations in systolic arterial blood pressure (SBP) and HR signals providing additional metrics characterizing the dynamics of the baroreflex.

METHODS

We analyze data from 28 control subjects and 28 POTS patients who underwent HUT. We extract beat-to-beat HR and SBP during a 10 min interval including 5 minutes of baseline and 5 minutes of HUT. We employ Uniform Phase Empirical Mode Decomposition (UPEMD) to extract 0.1 Hz stationary modes from both signals and use random forest machine learning and k-means clustering to analyze the outcomes. Results show that the amplitude of the 0.1 Hz oscillations is higher in POTS patients and that the phase response between the two signals is shorter (p < 0.005).

CONCLUSION

POTS is associated with an increase in the amplitude of SBP and HR 0.1 Hz oscillation and shortening of the phase between the two signals.

SIGNIFICANCE

The 0.1 Hz phase response and oscillation amplitude metrics provide new markers that can improve POTS diagnostic augmenting the existing diagnosis protocol only analyzing the change in HR.

Persistent instability in a nonhomogeneous delay differential equation system of the Valsalva maneuver

Delay differential equations are widely used in mathematical modeling to describe physical and biological systems, often inducing oscillatory behavior. In physiological systems, this instability may signify (i) an attempt to return to homeostasis or (ii) system dysfunction. In this study, we analyze a nonlinear, nonautonomous, nonhomogeneous open-loop neurological control model describing the autonomic nervous system response to the Valsalva maneuver (VM). We reduce this model from 5 to 2 states (predicting sympathetic tone and heart rate) and categorize the stability properties of the reduced model using a two-parameter bifurcation analysis of the sympathetic delay (D_s) and time-scale (τ_s). Stability regions in the D_sτ_s-plane for this nonhomogeneous system and its homogeneous analog are classified numerically and analytically, identifying transcritical and Hopf bifurcations. Results show that the Hopf bifurcation remains for both the homogeneous and nonhomogeneous systems, while the nonhomogeneous system stabilizes the transition at the transcritical bifurcation. This analysis was compared with results from blood pressure and heart rate data from three subjects performing the VM: a control subject exhibiting sink behavior, a control subject exhibiting stable focus behavior, and a patient with postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) also exhibiting stable focus behavior. Results suggest that instability caused from overactive sympathetic signaling may result in autonomic dysfunction.

Influence of image segmentation on one-dimensional fluid dynamics predictions in the mouse pulmonary arteries

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are emerging tools for assisting in diagnostic assessment of cardiovascular disease. Recent advances in image segmentation have made subject-specific modelling of the cardiovascular system a feasible task, which is particularly important in the case of pulmonary hypertension, requiring a combination of invasive and non-invasive procedures for diagnosis. Uncertainty in image segmentation propagates to CFD model predictions, making the quantification of segmentation-induced uncertainty crucial for subject-specific models. This study quantifies the variability of one-dimensional CFD predictions by propagating the uncertainty of network geometry and connectivity to blood pressure and flow predictions. We analyse multiple segmentations of a single, excised mouse lung using different pre-segmentation parameters. A custom algorithm extracts vessel length, vessel radii and network connectivity for each segmented pulmonary network. Probability density functions are computed for vessel radius and length and then sampled to propagate uncertainties to haemodynamic predictions in a fixed network. In addition, we compute the uncertainty of model predictions to changes in network size and connectivity. Results show that variation in network connectivity is a larger contributor to haemodynamic uncertainty than vessel radius and length.

A model-based analysis of autonomic nervous function in response to the Valsalva maneuver

The Valsalva maneuver (VM) is a diagnostic protocol examining sympathetic and parasympathetic activity in patients with autonomic dysfunction (AD) impacting cardiovascular control. Because direct measurement of these signals is costly and invasive, AD is typically assessed indirectly by analyzing heart rate and blood pressure response patterns. This study introduces a mathematical model that can predict sympathetic and parasympathetic dynamics. Our model-based analysis includes two control mechanisms: respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) and the baroreceptor reflex (baroreflex). The RSA submodel integrates an electrocardiogram-derived respiratory signal with intrathoracic pressure, and the baroreflex submodel differentiates aortic and carotid baroreceptor regions. Patient-specific afferent and efferent signals are determined for 34 control subjects and 5 AD patients, estimating parameters fitting the model output to heart rate data. Results show that inclusion of RSA and distinguishing aortic/carotid regions are necessary to model the heart rate response to the VM. Comparing control subjects to patients shows that RSA and baroreflex responses are significantly diminished. This study compares estimated parameter values from the model-based predictions to indices used in clinical practice. Three indices are computed to determine adrenergic function from the slope of the systolic blood pressure in phase II [α (a new index)], the baroreceptor sensitivity (β), and the Valsalva ratio (γ). Results show that these indices can distinguish between normal and abnormal states, but model-based analysis is needed to differentiate pathological signals. In summary, the model simulates various VM responses and, by combining indices and model predictions, we study the pathologies for 5 AD patients.NEW & NOTEWORTHY We introduce a patient-specific model analyzing heart rate and blood pressure during a Valsalva maneuver (VM). The model predicts autonomic function incorporating the baroreflex and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) control mechanisms. We introduce a novel index (α) characterizing sympathetic activity, which can distinguish control and abnormal patients. However, we assert that modeling and parameter estimation are necessary to explain pathologies. Finally, we show that aortic baroreceptors contribute significantly to the VM and RSA affects early VM.

Cardiovascular dynamics during head-up tilt assessed via pulsatile and non-pulsatile models

This study develops non-pulsatile and pulsatile models for the prediction of blood flow and pressure during head-up tilt. This test is used to diagnose potential pathologies within the autonomic control system, which acts to keep the cardiovascular system at homeostasis. We show that mathematical modeling can be used to predict changes in cardiac contractility, vascular resistance, and arterial compliance, quantities that cannot be measured but are useful to assess the system's state. These quantities are predicted as time-varying parameters modeled using piecewise linear splines. Having models with various levels of complexity formulated with a common set of parameters, allows us to combine long-term non-pulsatile simulations with pulsatile simulations on a shorter time-scale. We illustrate results for a representative subject tilted head-up from a supine position to a [Formula: see text] angle. The tilt is maintained for 5 min before the subject is tilted back down. Results show that if volume data is available for all vascular compartments three parameters can be identified, cardiovascular resistance, vascular compliance, and ventricular contractility, whereas if model predictions are made against arterial pressure and cardiac output data alone, only two parameters can be estimated either resistance and contractility or resistance and compliance.

An optimal control approach for blood pressure regulation during head-up tilt

This paper presents an optimal control approach to modeling effects of cardiovascular regulation during head-up tilt (HUT). Many patients who suffer from dizziness or light-headedness are administered a head-up tilt test to explore potential deficits within the autonomic control system, which maintains the cardiovascular system at homeostasis. This system is complex and difficult to study in vivo, and thus we propose to use mathematical modeling to achieve a better understanding of cardiovascular regulation during HUT. In particular, we show the feasibility of using optimal control theory to compute physiological control variables, vascular resistance and cardiac contractility, quantities that cannot be measured directly, but which are useful to assess the state of the cardiovascular system. A non-pulsatile lumped parameter model together with pseudo- and clinical data are utilized in the optimal control problem formulation. Results show that the optimal control approach can predict time-varying quantities regulated by the cardiovascular control system. Our results compare favorable to our previous study using a piecewise linear spline approach, less a priori knowledge is needed, and results were obtained at a significantly lower computational cost.

Cardiovascular regulation in response to multiple hemorrhages: analysis and parameter estimation

Mathematical models can provide useful insights explaining behavior observed in experimental data; however, rigorous analysis is needed to select a subset of model parameters that can be informed by available data. Here we present a method to estimate an identifiable set of parameters based on baseline left ventricular pressure and volume time series data. From this identifiable subset, we then select, based on current understanding of cardiovascular control, parameters that vary in time in response to blood withdrawal, and estimate these parameters over a series of blood withdrawals. These time-varying parameters are first estimated using piecewise linear splines minimizing the mean squared error between measured and computed left ventricular pressure and volume data over four consecutive blood withdrawals. As a final step, the trends in these splines are fit with empirical functional expressions selected to describe cardiovascular regulation during blood withdrawal. Our analysis at baseline found parameters representing timing of cardiac contraction, systemic vascular resistance, and cardiac contractility to be identifiable. Of these parameters, vascular resistance and cardiac contractility were varied in time. Data used for this study were measured in a control Sprague-Dawley rat. To our knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the response to multiple blood withdrawals both experimentally and theoretically, as most previous studies focus on analyzing the response to one large blood withdrawal. Results show that during each blood withdrawal both systemic vascular resistance and contractility decrease acutely and partially recover, and they decrease chronically across the series of blood withdrawals.

Parameter subset selection techniques for problems in mathematical biology

Patient-specific models for diagnostics and treatment planning require reliable parameter estimation and model predictions. Mathematical models of physiological systems are often formulated as systems of nonlinear ordinary differential equations with many parameters and few options for measuring all state variables. Consequently, it can be difficult to determine which parameters can reliably be estimated from available data. This investigation highlights pitfalls associated with practical parameter identifiability and subset selection. The latter refer to the process associated with selecting a subset of parameters that can be identified uniquely by parameter estimation protocols. The methods will be demonstrated using five examples of increasing complexity, as well as with patient-specific model predicting arterial blood pressure. This study demonstrates that methods based on local sensitivities are preferable in terms of computational cost and model fit when good initial parameter values are available, but that global methods should be considered when initial parameter value is not known or poorly understood. For global sensitivity analysis, Morris screening provides results in terms of parameter sensitivity ranking at a much lower computational cost.

Practical identifiability and uncertainty quantification of a pulsatile cardiovascular model

Mathematical models are essential tools to study how the cardiovascular system maintains homeostasis. The utility of such models is limited by the accuracy of their predictions, which can be determined by uncertainty quantification (UQ). A challenge associated with the use of UQ is that many published methods assume that the underlying model is identifiable (e.g. that a one-to-one mapping exists from the parameter space to the model output). In this study we present a novel workflow to calibrate a lumped-parameter model to left ventricular pressure and volume time series data. Key steps include using (1) literature and available data to determine nominal parameter values; (2) sensitivity analysis and subset selection to determine a set of identifiable parameters; (3) optimization to find a point estimate for identifiable parameters; and (4) frequentist and Bayesian UQ calculations to assess the predictive capability of the model. Our results show that it is possible to determine 5 identifiable model parameters that can be estimated to our experimental data from three rats, and that computed UQ intervals capture the measurement and model error.

Characteristic impedance: frequency or time domain approach?

OBJECTIVE

Characteristic impedance (Zc) is an important component in the theory of hemodynamics. It is a commonly used metric of proximal arterial stiffness and pulse wave velocity. Calculated using simultaneously measured dynamic pressure and flow data, estimates of characteristic impedance can be obtained using methods based on frequency or time domain analysis. Applications of these methods under different physiological and pathological conditions in species with different body sizes and heart rates show that the two approaches do not always agree. In this study, we have investigated the discrepancies between frequency and time domain estimates accounting for uncertainties associated with experimental processes and physiological conditions.

APPROACH

We have used published data measured in different species including humans, dogs, and mice to investigate: (a) the effects of time delay and signal noise in the pressure-flow data, (b) uncertainties about the blood flow conditions, (c) periodicity of the cardiac cycle versus the breathing cycle, on the frequency and time domain estimates of Zc, and (d) if discrepancies observed under different hemodynamic conditions can be eliminated. Main results and Significance: We have shown that the frequency and time domain estimates are not equally sensitive to certain characteristics of hemodynamic signals including phase lag between pressure and flow, signal to noise ratio and the end of systole retrograde flow. The discrepancies between two types of estimates are inherent due to their intrinsically different mathematical expressions and therefore it is impossible to define a criterion to resolve such discrepancies. Considering the interpretation and role of Zc as an important hemodynamic parameter, we suggest that the frequency and time domain estimates should be further assessed as two different hemodynamic parameters in a future study.

Increased blood pressure variability upon standing up improves reproducibility of cerebral autoregulation indices

Dynamic cerebral autoregulation, that is the transient response of cerebral blood flow to changes in arterial blood pressure, is currently assessed using a variety of different time series methods and data collection protocols. In the continuing absence of a gold standard for the study of cerebral autoregulation it is unclear to what extent does the assessment depend on the choice of a computational method and protocol. We use continuous measurements of blood pressure and cerebral blood flow velocity in the middle cerebral artery from the cohorts of 18 normotensive subjects performing sit-to-stand manoeuvre. We estimate cerebral autoregulation using a wide variety of black-box approaches (including the following six autoregulation indices ARI, Mx, Sx, Dx, FIR and ARX) and compare them in the context of reproducibility and variability. For all autoregulation indices, considered here, the intra-class correlation was greater during the standing protocol, however, it was significantly greater (Fisher's Z-test) for Mx (p < 0.03), Sx (p < 0.003) and Dx (p < 0.03). In the specific case of the sit-to-stand manoeuvre, measurements taken immediately after standing up greatly improve the reproducibility of the autoregulation coefficients. This is generally coupled with an increase of the within-group spread of the estimates.

Uncertainty Quantification in a Patient-Specific One-Dimensional Arterial Network Model: EnKF-Based Inflow Estimator

Successful clinical use of patient-specific models for cardiovascular dynamics depends on the reliability of the model output in the presence of input uncertainties. For 1D fluid dynamics models of arterial networks, input uncertainties associated with the model output are related to the specification of vessel and network geometry, parameters within the fluid and wall equations, and parameters used to specify inlet and outlet boundary conditions. This study investigates how uncertainty in the flow profile applied at the inlet boundary of a 1D model affects area and pressure predictions at the center of a single vessel. More specifically, this study develops an iterative scheme based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to estimate the temporal inflow profile from a prior distribution of curves. The EnKF-based inflow estimator provides a measure of uncertainty in the size and shape of the estimated inflow, which is propagated through the model to determine the corresponding uncertainty in model predictions of area and pressure. Model predictions are compared to ex vivo area and blood pressure measurements in the ascending aorta, the carotid artery, and the femoral artery of a healthy male Merino sheep. Results discuss dynamics obtained using a linear and a nonlinear viscoelastic wall model.

Modeling the differentiation of A- and C-type baroreceptor firing patterns

The baroreceptor neurons serve as the primary transducers of blood pressure for the autonomic nervous system and are thus critical in enabling the body to respond effectively to changes in blood pressure. These neurons can be separated into two types (A and C) based on the myelination of their axons and their distinct firing patterns elicited in response to specific pressure stimuli. This study has developed a comprehensive model of the afferent baroreceptor discharge built on physiological knowledge of arterial wall mechanics, firing rate responses to controlled pressure stimuli, and ion channel dynamics within the baroreceptor neurons. With this model, we were able to predict firing rates observed in previously published experiments in both A- and C-type neurons. These results were obtained by adjusting model parameters determining the maximal ion-channel conductances. The observed variation in the model parameters are hypothesized to correspond to physiological differences between A- and C-type neurons. In agreement with published experimental observations, our simulations suggest that a twofold lower potassium conductance in C-type neurons is responsible for the observed sustained basal firing, where as a tenfold higher mechanosensitive conductance is responsible for the greater firing rate observed in A-type neurons. A better understanding of the difference between the two neuron types can potentially be used to gain more insight about pathophysiology and treatment of diseases related to baroreflex function, e.g. in patients with autonomic failure, a syndrome that is difficult to diagnose in terms of its pathophysiology.

Numerical simulation of blood flow and pressure drop in the pulmonary arterial and venous circulation

A novel multiscale mathematical and computational model of the pulmonary circulation is presented and used to analyse both arterial and venous pressure and flow. This work is a major advance over previous studies by Olufsen et al. (Ann Biomed Eng 28:1281-1299, 2012) which only considered the arterial circulation. For the first three generations of vessels within the pulmonary circulation, geometry is specified from patient-specific measurements obtained using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Blood flow and pressure in the larger arteries and veins are predicted using a nonlinear, cross-sectional-area-averaged system of equations for a Newtonian fluid in an elastic tube. Inflow into the main pulmonary artery is obtained from MRI measurements, while pressure entering the left atrium from the main pulmonary vein is kept constant at the normal mean value of 2 mmHg. Each terminal vessel in the network of 'large' arteries is connected to its corresponding terminal vein via a network of vessels representing the vascular bed of smaller arteries and veins. We develop and implement an algorithm to calculate the admittance of each vascular bed, using bifurcating structured trees and recursion. The structured-tree models take into account the geometry and material properties of the 'smaller' arteries and veins of radii ≥ 50 μm. We study the effects on flow and pressure associated with three classes of pulmonary hypertension expressed via stiffening of larger and smaller vessels, and vascular rarefaction. The results of simulating these pathological conditions are in agreement with clinical observations, showing that the model has potential for assisting with diagnosis and treatment for circulatory diseases within the lung.

Structural correlation method for model reduction and practical estimation of patient specific parameters illustrated on heart rate regulation

We consider the inverse and patient specific problem of short term (seconds to minutes) heart rate regulation specified by a system of nonlinear ODEs and corresponding data. We show how a recent method termed the structural correlation method (SCM) can be used for model reduction and for obtaining a set of practically identifiable parameters. The structural correlation method includes two steps: sensitivity and correlation analysis. When combined with an optimization step, it is possible to estimate model parameters, enabling the model to fit dynamics observed in data. This method is illustrated in detail on a model predicting baroreflex regulation of heart rate and applied to analysis of data from a rat and healthy humans. Numerous mathematical models have been proposed for prediction of baroreflex regulation of heart rate, yet most of these have been designed to provide qualitative predictions of the phenomena though some recent models have been developed to fit observed data. In this study we show that the model put forward by Bugenhagen et al. can be simplified without loss of its ability to predict measured data and to be interpreted physiologically. Moreover, we show that with minimal changes in nominal parameter values the simplified model can be adapted to predict observations from both rats and humans. The use of these methods make the model suitable for estimation of parameters from individuals, allowing it to be adopted for diagnostic procedures.

Modeling the afferent dynamics of the baroreflex control system

In this study we develop a modeling framework for predicting baroreceptor firing rate as a function of blood pressure. We test models within this framework both quantitatively and qualitatively using data from rats. The models describe three components: arterial wall deformation, stimulation of mechanoreceptors located in the BR nerve-endings, and modulation of the action potential frequency. The three sub-systems are modeled individually following well-established biological principles. The first submodel, predicting arterial wall deformation, uses blood pressure as an input and outputs circumferential strain. The mechanoreceptor stimulation model, uses circumferential strain as an input, predicting receptor deformation as an output. Finally, the neural model takes receptor deformation as an input predicting the BR firing rate as an output. Our results show that nonlinear dependence of firing rate on pressure can be accounted for by taking into account the nonlinear elastic properties of the artery wall. This was observed when testing the models using multiple experiments with a single set of parameters. We find that to model the response to a square pressure stimulus, giving rise to post-excitatory depression, it is necessary to include an integrate-and-fire model, which allows the firing rate to cease when the stimulus falls below a given threshold. We show that our modeling framework in combination with sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation can be used to test and compare models. Finally, we demonstrate that our preferred model can exhibit all known dynamics and that it is advantageous to combine qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.

Patient-specific modelling of head-up tilt

Short-term cardiovascular responses to head-up tilt (HUT) involve complex cardiovascular regulation in order to maintain blood pressure at homoeostatic levels. This manuscript presents a patient-specific model that uses heart rate as an input to fit the dynamic changes in arterial blood pressure data during HUT. The model contains five compartments representing arteries and veins in the upper and lower body of the systemic circulation, as well as the left ventricle facilitating pumping of the heart. A physiologically based submodel describes gravitational pooling of the blood into the lower extremities during HUT, and a cardiovascular regulation model adjusts cardiac contractility and vascular resistance to the blood pressure changes. Nominal parameter values are computed from patient-specific data and literature estimates. The model is rendered patient specific via the use of parameter estimation techniques. This process involves sensitivity analysis, prediction of a subset of identifiable parameters, and non-linear optimization. The approach proposed here was applied to the analysis of aortic and carotid HUT data from five healthy young subjects. Results showed that it is possible to identify a subset of model parameters that can be estimated allowing the model to fit changes in arterial blood pressure observed at the level of the carotid bifurcation. Moreover, the model estimates physiologically reasonable values for arterial and venous blood pressures, blood volumes and cardiac output for which data are not available.

A practical approach to parameter estimation applied to model predicting heart rate regulation

Mathematical models have long been used for prediction of dynamics in biological systems. Recently, several efforts have been made to render these models patient specific. One way to do so is to employ techniques to estimate parameters that enable model based prediction of observed quantities. Knowledge of variation in parameters within and between groups of subjects have potential to provide insight into biological function. Often it is not possible to estimate all parameters in a given model, in particular if the model is complex and the data is sparse. However, it may be possible to estimate a subset of model parameters reducing the complexity of the problem. In this study, we compare three methods that allow identification of parameter subsets that can be estimated given a model and a set of data. These methods will be used to estimate patient specific parameters in a model predicting baroreceptor feedback regulation of heart rate during head-up tilt. The three methods include: structured analysis of the correlation matrix, analysis via singular value decomposition followed by QR factorization, and identification of the subspace closest to the one spanned by eigenvectors of the model Hessian. Results showed that all three methods facilitate identification of a parameter subset. The "best" subset was obtained using the structured correlation method, though this method was also the most computationally intensive. Subsets obtained using the other two methods were easier to compute, but analysis revealed that the final subsets contained correlated parameters. In conclusion, to avoid lengthy computations, these three methods may be combined for efficient identification of parameter subsets.

Patient-specific modeling of cardiovascular and respiratory dynamics during hypercapnia

This study develops a lumped cardiovascular-respiratory system-level model that incorporates patient-specific data to predict cardiorespiratory response to hypercapnia (increased CO(2) partial pressure) for a patient with congestive heart failure (CHF). In particular, the study focuses on predicting cerebral CO(2) reactivity, which can be defined as the ability of vessels in the cerebral vasculature to expand or contract in response CO(2) induced challenges. It is difficult to characterize cerebral CO(2) reactivity directly from measurements, since no methods exist to dynamically measure vasomotion of vessels in the cerebral vasculature. In this study we show how mathematical modeling can be combined with available data to predict cerebral CO(2) reactivity via dynamic predictions of cerebral vascular resistance, which can be directly related to vasomotion of vessels in the cerebral vasculature. To this end we have developed a coupled cardiovascular and respiratory model that predicts blood pressure, flow, and concentration of gasses (CO(2) and O(2)) in the systemic, cerebral, and pulmonary arteries and veins. Cerebral vascular resistance is incorporated via a model parameter separating cerebral arteries and veins. The model was adapted to a specific patient using parameter estimation combined with sensitivity analysis and subset selection. These techniques allowed estimation of cerebral vascular resistance along with other cardiovascular and respiratory parameters. Parameter estimation was carried out during eucapnia (breathing room air), first for the cardiovascular model and then for the respiratory model. Then, hypercapnia was introduced by increasing inspired CO(2) partial pressure. During eucapnia, seven cardiovascular parameters and four respiratory parameters was be identified and estimated, including cerebral and systemic resistance. During the transition from eucapnia to hypercapnia, the model predicted a drop in cerebral vascular resistance consistent with cerebral vasodilation.

Linear and nonlinear viscoelastic modeling of aorta and carotid pressure-area dynamics under in vivo and ex vivo conditions

A better understanding of the biomechanical properties of the arterial wall provides important insight into arterial vascular biology under normal (healthy) and pathological conditions. This insight has potential to improve tracking of disease progression and to aid in vascular graft design and implementation. In this study, we use linear and nonlinear viscoelastic models to predict biomechanical properties of the thoracic descending aorta and the carotid artery under ex vivo and in vivo conditions in ovine and human arteries. Models analyzed include a four-parameter (linear) Kelvin viscoelastic model and two five-parameter nonlinear viscoelastic models (an arctangent and a sigmoid model) that relate changes in arterial blood pressure to the vessel cross-sectional area (via estimation of vessel strain). These models were developed using the framework of Quasilinear Viscoelasticity (QLV) theory and were validated using measurements from the thoracic descending aorta and the carotid artery obtained from human and ovine arteries. In vivo measurements were obtained from 10 ovine aortas and 10 human carotid arteries. Ex vivo measurements (from both locations) were made in 11 male Merino sheep. Biomechanical properties were obtained through constrained estimation of model parameters. To further investigate the parameter estimates, we computed standard errors and confidence intervals and we used analysis of variance to compare results within and between groups. Overall, our results indicate that optimal model selection depends on the artery type. Results showed that for the thoracic descending aorta (under both experimental conditions), the best predictions were obtained with the nonlinear sigmoid model, while under healthy physiological pressure loading the carotid arteries nonlinear stiffening with increasing pressure is negligible, and consequently, the linear (Kelvin) viscoelastic model better describes the pressure-area dynamics in this vessel. Results comparing biomechanical properties show that the Kelvin and sigmoid models were able to predict the zero-pressure vessel radius; that under ex vivo conditions vessels are more rigid, and comparatively, that the carotid artery is stiffer than the thoracic descending aorta; and that the viscoelastic gain and relaxation parameters do not differ significantly between vessels or experimental conditions. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the proposed models can predict pressure-area dynamics and that model parameters can be extracted for further interpretation of biomechanical properties.

Functionality of the baroreceptor nerves in heart rate regulation

Two models describing the afferent baroreceptor firing are analyzed, a basic model predicting firing using a single nonlinear differential equation, and an extended model, coupling K nonlinear responses. Both models respond to the the rate (derivative) and the rate history of the carotid sinus arterial pressure. As a result both the rate and the relative level of the carotid sinus arterial pressure is sensed. Simulations with these models show that responses to step changes in pressure follow from the rate sensitivity as observed in experimental studies. Adaptation and asymmetric responses are a consequence of the memory encapsulated by the models, and the nonlinearity gives rise to sigmoidal response curves. The nonlinear afferent baroreceptor models are coupled with an effector model, and the coupled model has been used to predict baroreceptor feedback regulation of heart rate during postural change from sitting to standing and during head-up tilt. The efferent model couples the afferent nerve paths to the sympathetic and parasympathetic outflow, and subsequently predicts the build up of an action potential at the sinus knot of the heart. In this paper, we analyze the nonlinear afferent model and show that the coupled model is able to predict heart rate regulation using blood pressure data as an input.

Modeling cardio-respiratory system response to inhaled CO2 in patients with congestive heart failure

In this paper we examine a cardiovascular-respiratory model of mid-level complexity designed to predict the dynamics of end-tidal carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and cerebral blood flow velocity in response to a CO(2) challenge. Respiratory problems often emerge as heart function diminishes in congestive heart failure patients. To assess system function, various tests can be performed including inhalation of a higher than normal CO(2) level. CO(2) is a key quantity firstly because any perturbation in system CO(2) quickly influences ventilation (oxygen perturbations need to be more severe). Secondly, the CO(2) response gain has been associated with respiratory system control instability. Thirdly, CO(2) in a short time impacts the degree of cerebral vascular constriction, allowing for the assessment of cerebral vasculature function. The presented model can be used to study key system characteristics including cerebral vessel CO(2) reactivity and ventilatory feedback factors influencing ventilatory stability in patients with congestive heart failure. Accurate modeling of the dynamics of system response to CO(2) challenge, in conjunction with robust parameter identification of key system parameters, can help in assessing patient system status.

The impact of gravity during head-up tilt

The impact of gravity during head-up tilt, a test often used in the clinic to diagnose patients who suffer from dizziness or frequent episodes of syncope, is not well described. This study uses mathematical modeling to analyze experimental blood pressure data measured at the level of the aorta and the carotid sinuses in a healthy volunteer. During head-up tilt the head is lifted above the heart stimulating gravitational pooling of blood in the lower extremities. This shift in volume is followed by an increase in blood pressure in the lower body, while the pressure in the head decreases, while the pressure at the level of the heart is either constant or increases. At the same time, the normal response to head-up tilt is an increase in heart rate. The change in posture, and subsequent change in heart rate, is believed to be mediated via baroreflex inhibition. Traditional understanding of the baroreceptor system is that inhibition is a result of a blood pressure drop. However, only the carotid sinus blood pressure is decreased during head-up tilt, suggesting that the receptors at this location are more prominent than the receptors in the aortic arch. To explore this hypothesis further, we developed a model predicting hydrostatic height between the two locations. Results from this model were compared with measurements. Furthermore, we show, using a differential equations model predicting blood pressure, that it is possible to predict blood pressure measured at the level of the carotid sinuses using heart rate as an input. Finally, we discuss our results in relation to measurements obtained at the two locations.

Toward online, noninvasive, nonlinear assessment of cerebral autoregulation

Online estimation of cerebral autoregulation (CA) may be advantageous in neurosurgical and neurointensive care units. Data from transcranial Doppler, and continuous arterial blood pressure are readily available at high temporal resolution and may be used to assess CA. There are currently no methods for nonlinear, noninvasive, online assessment of CA. We frame the assessment of CA as a parameter estimation problem, in which we estimate the parameters of a nonlinear mathematical model of CA using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In this simulation study, we use the EnKF to estimate the parameters of a model of cerebral hemodynamics which predicts intracranial pressure and cerebral blood flow velocity, generated from real patient arterial blood pressure measurements. We examine the flexibility and appropriateness of the EnKF for CA assessment.

Linear and nonlinear viscoelastic modeling of ovine aortic biomechanical properties under in vivo and ex vivo conditions

This study uses linear and nonlinear viscoelastic models to describe the dynamic distention of the aorta induced by time-varying arterial blood pressure. We employ an inverse mathematical modeling approach on a four-parameter (linear) Kelvin viscoelastic model and two five-parameter nonlinear viscoelastic models (arctangent and sigmoid) to infer vascular biomechanical properties under in vivo and ex vivo experimental conditions in ten and eleven male Merino sheep, respectively. We used the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as a goodness-of-fit measure. Results show that under both experimental conditions, the nonlinear models generally outperform the linear Kelvin model, as judged by the AIC. Furthermore, the sigmoid nonlinear viscoelastic model consistently achieves the lowest AIC and also matches the zero-stress vessel radii measured ex vivo. Based on these observations, we conclude that the sigmoid nonlinear viscoelastic model best describes the biomechanical properties of ovine large arteries under both experimental conditions considered in this study.

Modeling cerebral blood flow and regulation

Cerebral autoregulation is a homeostatic mechanism which maintains blood flow despite changes in blood pressure in order to meet local metabolic demands. Several mechanisms play a role in cerebral autoregulation in order to adjust vascular tone and caliber of the cerebral vessels, but the exact etiology of the dynamics of these mechanism is not well understood. In this study, we discuss two patient specific models predicting cerebral blood flow velocity during postural change from sitting to standing. One model characterises cerebral autoregulation, the other describes the beat-to-beat distribution of blood flow to the major regions of the brain. Both models have been validated against experimental data from a healthy young subject.

Estimation and identification of parameters in a lumped cerebrovascular model

This study shows how sensitivity analysis and subset selection can be employed in a cardiovascular model to estimate total systemic resistance, cerebrovascular resistance, arterial compliance, and time for peak systolic ventricular pressure for healthy young and elderly subjects. These quantities are parameters in a simple lumped parameter model that predicts pressure and flow in the systemic circulation. The model is combined with experimental measurements of blood flow velocity from the middle cerebral artery and arterial finger blood pressure. To estimate the model parameters we use nonlinear optimization combined with sensitivity analysis and subset selection. Sensitivity analysis allows us to rank model parameters from the most to the least sensitive with respect to the output states (cerebral blood flow velocity and arterial blood pressure). Subset selection allows us to identify a set of independent candidate parameters that can be estimated given limited data. Analyses of output from both methods allow us to identify five independent sensitive parameters that can be estimated given the data. Results show that with the advance of age total systemic and cerebral resistances increase, that time for peak systolic ventricular pressure is increases, and that arterial compliance is reduced. Thus, the method discussed in this study provides a new methodology to extract clinical markers that cannot easily be assessed noninvasively.

Analysis of viscoelastic wall properties in ovine arteries

In this paper, we analyze how elastic and viscoelastic properties differ across seven locations along the large arteries in 11 sheep. We employ a two-parameter elastic model and a four-parameter Kelvin viscoelastic model to analyze experimental measurements of vessel diameter and blood pressure obtained in vitro at conditions mimicking in vivo dynamics. Elastic and viscoelastic wall properties were assessed via solutions to the associated inverse problem. We use sensitivity analysis to rank the model parameters from the most to the least sensitive, as well as to compute standard errors and confidence intervals. Results reveal that elastic properties in both models (including Young's modulus and the viscoelastic relaxation parameters) vary across locations (smaller arteries are stiffer than larger arteries). We also show that for all locations, the inclusion of viscoelastic behavior is important to capture pressure-area dynamics.