Use of Sequential Hot-Deck Imputation for Missing Health Care Systems Data for Population Health Research

Electronic medical record (EMR) data present many opportunities for population health research. The use of EMR data for population risk models can be impeded by the high proportion of missingness in key patient variables. Common approaches like complete case analysis and multiple imputation may not be appropriate for some population health initiatives that require a single, complete analytic data set. In this study, we demonstrate a sequential hot-deck imputation (HDI) procedure to address missingness in a set of cardiometabolic measures in an EMR data set. We assessed the performance of sequential HDI within the individual variables and a commonly used composite risk score. A data set of cardiometabolic measures based on EMR data from 2 large urban hospitals was used to create a benchmark data set with simulated missingness. Sequential HDI was applied, and the resulting data were used to calculate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores. The performance of the imputation approach was assessed using a set of metrics to evaluate the distribution and validity of the imputed data. Of the 567,841 patients, 65% had at least 1 missing cardiometabolic measure. Sequential HDI resulted in the distribution of variables and risk scores that reflected those in the simulated data while retaining correlation. When stratified by age and sex, risk scores were plausible and captured patterns expected in the general population. The use of sequential HDI was shown to be a suitable approach to multivariate missingness in EMR data. Sequential HDI could benefit population health research by providing a straightforward, computationally nonintensive approach to missing EMR data that results in a single analytic data set.

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities

Introduction

This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in "Tobacco Nation," a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies.

Methods

We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealthTM:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population.

Results

Over the next 20 years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts.

Conclusions

The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents' wishes.

Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: Updated Modeling Study for the US Preventive Services Task Force

IMPORTANCE

The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating its 2016 recommendation on the use of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC).

OBJECTIVE

To provide updated model-based estimates of the net balance in benefits and harms from routine use of low-dose aspirin for primary prevention.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Microsimulation modeling was used to estimate long-term benefits and harms for hypothetical US cohorts of men and women aged 40 to 79 years with up to 20% 10-year risk for an atherosclerotic CVD event and without prior history of CVD or elevated bleeding risks.

EXPOSURES

Low-dose (≤100 mg/d) aspirin for lifetime use, unless contraindicated by a bleeding event, and with stopping ages in 5-year intervals from age 65 to 85 years.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary outcomes were lifetime net benefits measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and life-years. Benefits included reduced nonfatal myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke. Harms included increased nonfatal major gastrointestinal bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage. Reduced CRC incidence was considered in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Estimated lifetime net QALYs were positive for both men and women at 5% or greater 10-year CVD risk when starting between ages 40 and 59 years and at 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk when starting between ages 60 and 69 years. These estimates ranged from 2.3 (95% CI, -2.7 to 7.4) to 66.2 (95% CI, 58.2 to 74.1) QALYs per 1000 persons. Lifetime net life-years were positive for men at 5% or greater and women at 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk starting aspirin at ages 40 to 49 years and for men at 7.5% or greater and women at 15% or greater 10-year CVD risk at ages 50 to 59 years. These estimates ranged from 0.4 (95% CI, -6.1 to 6.9) to 52.4 (95% CI, 43.9 to 60.9) life-years per 1000 persons. Lifetime net life-years were negative in most cases for persons starting aspirin between ages 60 and 79 years, as were lifetime net QALYs for persons aged 70 to 79 years. Stopping aspirin between ages 65 and 85 years generally showed little advantage compared with lifetime use. Sensitivity analyses showed lifetime net benefits may be higher if aspirin reduced CRC incidence or CVD mortality and lower if aspirin increased fatal major gastrointestinal bleeding or reduced quality of life with routine use.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This microsimulation study suggested that several population groups may benefit from taking aspirin for the primary prevention of CVD, primarily in persons starting at younger ages with higher 10-year CVD risk.

Projecting the future impact of past accomplishments in tobacco control

BACKGROUND

The benefits to adults who quit smoking increase over time as former smokers live longer, healthier lives. Youth who never smoke will benefit for decades. Thus, the long-term population effects of tobacco prevention and control policies may be substantial. Yet they are rarely quantified in evaluations of state tobacco control programmes.

METHODS

Using a microsimulation model, we predicted the benefits to Minnesotans from 2018 to 2037 of having reduced cigarette smoking prevalence from 1998 to 2017. We first simulated the health and economic harms of tobacco that would have occurred had smoking prevalence stayed at 1997 levels. The harms produced by that scenario were then compared with harms in scenarios with smoking declining at observed rates from 1998 to 2017 and either expected declines from 2018 to 2037 or a greater decline to 5% prevalence in 2037.

RESULTS

With expected smoking prevalence decreases from 2018 to 2037, Minnesotans will experience 12 298 fewer cancers, 72 208 fewer hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 31 913 fewer respiratory disease hospitalisations, 14 063 fewer smoking-attributable deaths, $10.2 billion less in smoking-attributable medical expenditures and $9.4 billion in productivity gains than if prevalence had stayed at 1997 levels. These gains are two to four times greater than for the previous 20 years, and would be about 15% higher if Minnesota achieves a 5% adult prevalence rate by 2037.

CONCLUSIONS

The tobacco control measures implemented from 1998 to 2017 will produce accelerated benefits during 2018-2037 if modest progress in tobacco prevalence rates is maintained.

Preventing Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Deaths: Assessing the Impact of Increased Screening

Introduction

The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends select preventive clinical services, including cancer screening. However, screening for cancers remains underutilized in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leads initiatives to increase breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We assessed the number of avoidable deaths from increased screening, according to USPSTF recommendations, for CRC and female breast and cervical cancers.

Methods

We used model-based estimates of avoidable deaths for the lifetime of single-year age cohorts under the current and increased use of screening scenarios (data year 2016; analysis, 2018). We calculated prevented cancer deaths for each 1% increase in screening uptake and extrapolated to current level of screening (2016), current level plus 10 percentage points, and increasing screening to 90% and 100% of the eligible population.

Results

Increased use of screening from current levels to 100% would prevent an additional 2,821 deaths from breast cancer, 6,834 deaths from cervical cancer, and 35,530 deaths from CRC over a lifetime of the respective single-year cohort. Increasing use of CRC screening would prevent approximately 8.5 times as many deaths as the equivalent increase in use of breast cancer screening (women only), although twice as many people (men and women) would have to be screened for CRC.

Conclusions

A large number of deaths could be avoided by increasing breast, cervical, and CRC screening. Public health programs incorporating strategies shown to be effective can help increase screening rates.

Cardiovascular Events and Costs With Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Management for Uncontrolled Hypertension

Uncontrolled hypertension is a leading contributor to cardiovascular disease. A cluster-randomized trial in 16 primary care clinics showed that 12 months of home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist management lowered blood pressure more than usual care (UC) for 24 months. We report cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, hospitalized heart failure, coronary revascularization, and cardiovascular death) and costs over 5 years of follow-up. In the telemonitoring intervention (TI group, n=228), there were 15 cardiovascular events (5 myocardial infarction, 4 stroke, 5 heart failure, 1 cardiovascular death) among 10 patients. In UC group (n=222), there were 26 events (11 myocardial infarction, 12 stroke, 3 heart failure) among 19 patients. The cardiovascular composite end point incidence was 4.4% in the TI group versus 8.6% in the UC group (odds ratio, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.21-1.13], P=0.09). Including 2 coronary revascularizations in the TI group and 10 in the UC group, the secondary cardiovascular composite end point incidence was 5.3% in the TI group versus 10.4% in the UC group (odds ratio, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.22-1.08], P=0.08). Microsimulation modeling showed the difference in events far exceeded predictions based on observed blood pressure. Intervention costs (in 2017 US dollars) were $1511 per patient. Over 5 years, estimated event costs were $758 000 in the TI group and $1 538 000 in the UC group for a return on investment of 126% and a net cost savings of about $1900 per patient. Telemonitoring with pharmacist management lowered blood pressure and may have reduced costs by avoiding cardiovascular events over 5 years. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00781365.

Budgetary impact from multiple perspectives of sustained antitobacco national media campaigns to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking

BACKGROUND

High-intensity antitobacco media campaigns are a proven strategy to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking. While buy-in from multiple stakeholders is needed to launch meaningful health policy, the budgetary impact of sustained media campaigns from multiple payer perspectives is unknown.

METHODS

We estimated the budgetary impact and time to breakeven from societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives of national antitobacco media campaigns in the USA. Campaigns of 1, 5 and 10 years of durations were assessed in a microsimulation model to estimate the 10 and 20-year health and budgetary impact. Simulation model inputs were obtained from literature and both pubic use and proprietary data sets.

RESULTS

The microsimulation predicts that a 10-year national smoking cessation campaign would produce net savings of $10.4, $5.1, $1.4, $3.6 and $0.2 billion from the societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives, respectively. National antitobacco media campaigns of 1, 5 and 10-year durations could produce net savings for Medicaid and Medicare within 2 years, and for private insurers within 6-9 years. A 10-year campaign would reduce adult cigarette smoking prevalence by 1.2 percentage points, prevent 23 500 smoking-attributable deaths over the first 10 years. In sensitivity analysis, media campaign costs would be offset by reductions in medical care spending of smoking among all payers combined within 6 years in all tested scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

1, 5 and 10-year antitobacco media campaigns all yield net savings within 10 years from all perspectives. Multiyear campaigns yield substantially higher savings than a 1-year campaign.

The 20-year impact of tobacco price and tobacco control expenditure increases in Minnesota, 1998-2017

Introduction

Tobacco control programs and policies reduce tobacco use and prevent health and economic harms. The majority of tobacco control programs and policies in the United States are implemented at local and state levels. Yet the literature on state-level initiatives reports a limited set of outcomes. To facilitate decision-making that is increasingly focused on costs, we provide estimates of a broader set of measures of the impact of tobacco control policy, including smoking prevalence, disease events, deaths, medical costs, productivity and tobacco tax revenues, using the experience of Minnesota as an example.

Methods

Using the HealthPartners Institute’s ModelHealth^™: Tobacco MN microsimulation, we assessed the impact of the stream of tobacco control expenditures and cigarette price increases from 1998 to 2017. We simulated 1.3 million individuals representative of the Minnesota population.

Results

The simulation estimated that increased expenditures on tobacco control above 1997 levels prevented 38,400 cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes and respiratory disease events and 4,100 deaths over 20 years. Increased prices prevented 14,600 additional events and 1,700 additional deaths. Both the net increase in tax revenues and the reduction in medical costs were greater than the additional investments in tobacco control.

Conclusion

Combined, the policies address both short-term and long-term goals to reduce the harms of tobacco by helping adults who wish to quit smoking and deterring youth from starting to smoke. States can pay for initial investments in tobacco control through tax increases and recoup those investments through reduced expenditures on medical care.

Twenty-year health and economic impact of reducing cigarette use: Minnesota 1998-2017

Background

Adult smoking prevalence in Minnesota fell from 21.8% in 1997 to 15.2% in 2016. This reduction improved heart and lung health, prevented cancers, extended life and reduced healthcare costs, but quantifying these benefits is difficult.

Methods

1.3 million individuals were simulated in a tobacco policy model to estimate the gains to Minnesotans from 1998 to 2017 in health, medical spending reductions and productivity gains due to reduced cigarette smoking. A constant prevalence scenario was created to simulate the tobacco harms that would have occurred had smoking prevalence stayed at 1997 levels. Those harms were compared with tobacco harms from a scenario of actual smoking prevalence in Minnesota from 1998 to 2017.

Results

The simulation model predicts that reducing cigarette smoking from 1998 to 2017 has prevented 4560 cancers, 31 691 hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 12 881 respiratory disease hospitalisations and 4118 smoking-attributable deaths. Minnesotans spent an estimated $2.7 billion less in medical care and gained $2.4 billion in paid and unpaid productivity, inflation adjusted to 2017 US$. In sensitivity analysis, medical care savings ranged from $1.7 to $3.6 billion.

Conclusions

Minnesota’s investment in comprehensive tobacco control measures has driven down smoking rates, saved billions in medical care and productivity costs and prevented tobacco related diseases of its residents. The simulation method employed in this study can be adapted to other geographies and time periods to bring to light the invisible gains of tobacco control.

Long-term Outcomes of the Effects of Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Management on Blood Pressure Among Adults With Uncontrolled Hypertension: Follow-up of a Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease. The results were previously reported of a trial of home blood pressure (BP) telemonitoring and pharmacist management intervention in which the interventions stopped after 12 months. There were significantly greater reductions in systolic BP (SBP) in the intervention group than in the usual care group at 6, 12, and 18 months (-10.7, -9.7, and -6.6 mm Hg, respectively).

OBJECTIVES

To examine the durability of the intervention effect on BP through 54 months of follow-up and to compare BP measurements performed in the research clinic and in routine clinical care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Follow-up of a cluster randomized clinical trial among 16 primary care clinics and 450 patients with uncontrolled hypertension in a large health system from March 2009 to November 2015.

INTERVENTIONS

A home BP telemonitoring intervention with pharmacist management or usual care.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Change from baseline to 54 months in SBP and diastolic BP (DBP) measured as the mean of 3 measurements obtained at each research clinic visit.

RESULTS

Among 450 patients, 228 (mean [SD] age, 62.0 [11.7] years; 54.8% male) were randomized to the telemonitoring intervention and 222 (mean [SD] age, 60.2 [12.2] years; 55.9% male) to usual care. Research clinic BP measurements were obtained from 326 of 450 (72.4%) study patients at the 54-month follow-up visit, including 162 (mean [SD] age, 62.0 [11.1] years; 54.9% male) randomized to the telemonitoring intervention and 164 (mean [SD] age, 60.0 [11.2] years; 57.3% male) to usual care. Routine clinical care BP measurements were obtained from 439 of 450 (97.6%) study patients at 6248 visits during the follow-up period. Based on research clinic measurements, baseline mean SBP was 148 mm Hg in both groups. In the intervention group, mean SBP at 6-, 12-, 18-, and 54-month follow-up was 126.7, 125.7, 126.9, and 130.6 mm Hg, respectively. In the usual care group, mean SBP at 6-, 12-, 18-, and 54-month follow-up was 136.9, 134.8, 133.0, and 132.6 mm Hg, respectively. The differential reduction by study group in SBP from baseline to 54 months was -2.5 mm Hg (95% CI, -6.3 to 1.2 mm Hg; P = .18). The DBP followed a similar pattern, with a differential reduction by study group from baseline to 54 months of -1.0 mm Hg (95% CI, -3.2 to 1.2 mm Hg; P = .37). The SBP and DBP results from routine clinical measurements suggested significantly lower BP in the intervention group for up to 24 months.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This intensive intervention had sustained effects for up to 24 months (12 months after the intervention ended). Long-term maintenance of BP control is likely to require continued monitoring and resumption of the intervention if BP increases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00781365.

Economic Evaluation of the Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Case Management to Control Hypertension (Hyperlink) Trial

Background

Pharmacist-managed (team-based) care for hypertension with home blood pressure monitoring support interventions have been widely studied and shown to be effective in improving rates of hypertension control and lowering blood pressure; however, few studies have evaluated the economic considerations related to bringing these programs into usual practice.

Objective

To analyze the economic outcomes of the Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Management on Blood Pressure (Hyperlink) study, a cluster randomized controlled trial which used home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist case management to achieve better blood pressure control in patients with uncontrolled hypertension.

Methods

A prospective analysis compared differences in medical costs and encounters in the Hyperlink telemonitoring intervention and usual care groups in the 12 months pre- and post-enrollment using medical and pharmacy insurance claims from a health care sector perspective. Generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate differences between groups over time. These results, combined with previously published prospective study results on intervention costs and blood pressure outcomes, were used to estimate cost-effectiveness measures for blood pressure control and reduction.

Findings

Total medical costs in the intervention group were lower compared with the usual care group by an average of $281 per person, but this difference was not statistically significant. Clinic-based office visit, radiology, pharmacy, and hospital costs were also non-significantly lower in the intervention group. Statistically significant differences were found in lipid-related laboratory costs (higher) and in hypertension- (higher) and lipid-related (lower) pharmacy costs. Patterns in medical costs were similar for medical encounters. On average, the intervention cost $7337 per person achieving hypertension control and $139 or $265 per mm Hg reduction in systolic or diastolic blood pressure, respectively.

Conclusions

Home blood pressure monitoring and pharmacist case management to improve hypertension care can be implemented without increasing, and potentially reducing, overall medical care costs.

Abstract P494: Long-term Outcomes of a Cluster-randomized Trial Testing the Effects Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Pharmacist Management

Background/Aims: Hypertension is a common condition and leading cause of cardiovascular disease. We previously reported results of a cluster-randomized trial evaluating a home blood pressure (BP) telemonitoring and pharmacist management intervention, with significant reductions in BP favoring the intervention arm over 18 months. This analysis examined the durability of the intervention effect on BP through 54 months of follow-up and compared BP measurements performed in the research clinic and in routine clinical care.

Methods: The Hyperlink trial randomized 16 primary care clinics having 450 study-enrolled patients with uncontrolled hypertension to either Telemonitoring Intervention (TI) or usual care (UC) study arms. BP was measured as the mean of 3 measurements obtained at each research clinic visit. General linear mixed models utilizing a direct likelihood-based ignorable approach for missing data were used to examine change from baseline to 54 months in systolic and diastolic BP (SBP and DBP).

Results: Research clinic BP measurements were obtained from 326 (72%) study patients at the 54 month follow-up visit. Routine clinical care BP measurements were obtained from 444 (99%) of study patients from 7025 visits during the follow-up period. For TI patients, based on research clinic measurements baseline SBP was 148.2 mm Hg and 54 month follow-up was 131.2 mm Hg (-17.0 mm Hg, p<.001). For UC patients, baseline SBP was 147.7 mm Hg and 54 month follow-up was 131.7 mm Hg ( -16.0 mm Hg, p<.001). The differential reduction by study arm in SBP from baseline to 54 months was -1.0 mm Hg (95% CI: -5.4 to 3.4, p=0.63). For TI patients, baseline DBP was 84.4 mm Hg and 54 month follow-up was 77.8 (-6.6 mm Hg, p<.001). For UC patients, baseline DBP was 85.1 mm Hg and 54 month follow-up was 79.1 mm Hg (-6.0 mm Hg, p<.001). The differential reduction by study arm in DBP from baseline to 54 months was -0.6 mm Hg (95% CI: -3.5 to 2.4, p=0.67). SBP and DBP results from routine clinical measurements closely approximated the pattern of results from research clinic measurements.

Conclusion: Significant BP reductions in the TI arm relative to UC were no longer seen at 54 month follow-up. To maintain intervention benefits over a longer period of time additional intervention is needed.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Asymptomatic Screening for Hypertension and High Cholesterol and Aspirin Counseling for Primary Prevention

PURPOSE

Our aim was to update estimates of the health and economic impact of clinical services recommended for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for the comparative rankings of the National Commission on Prevention Priorities, and to explore differences in outcomes by sex and race/ethnicity.

METHODS

We used a single, integrated, microsimulation model to generate comparable results for 3 services recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force: aspirin counseling for the primary prevention of CVD and colorectal cancer, screening and treatment for lipid disorders (usually high cholesterol), and screening and treatment for hypertension. Analyses compare lifetime outcomes from the societal perspective for a US-representative birth cohort of 100,000 persons with and without access to each clinical preventive service. Primary outcomes are health impact, measured by the net difference in lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness, measured in incremental cost per QALY or cost savings per person in 2012 dollars. Results are also presented for population subgroups defined by sex and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

Health impact is highest for hypertension screening and treatment (15,600 QALYs), but is closely followed by cholesterol screening and treatment (14,300 QALYs). Aspirin counseling has a lower health impact (2,200 QALYs) but is found to be cost saving ($31 saved per person). Cost-effectiveness for cholesterol and hypertension screening and treatment is $33,800 per QALY and $48,500 per QALY, respectively. Findings favor hypertension over cholesterol screening and treatment for women, and opportunities to reduce disease burden across all services are greatest for the non-Hispanic black population.

CONCLUSIONS

All 3 CVD preventive services continue to rank highly among other recommended preventive services for US adults, but individual priorities can be tailored in practice by taking a patient's demographic characteristics and clinical objectives into account.

Updated Priorities Among Effective Clinical Preventive Services

PURPOSE

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act's provisions for first-dollar coverage of evidence-based preventive services have reduced an important barrier to receipt of preventive care. Safety-net providers, however, still serve a substantial uninsured population, and clinician and patient time remain limited in all primary care settings. As a consequence, decision makers continue to set priorities to help focus their efforts. This report updates estimates of relative health impact and cost-effectiveness for evidence-based preventive services.

METHODS

We assessed the potential impact of 28 evidence-based clinical preventive services in terms of their cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden, as measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved. Each service received 1 to 5 points on each of the 2 measures-cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden-for a total score ranging from 2 to 10. New microsimulation models were used to provide updated estimates of 12 of these services. Priorities for improving delivery rates were established by comparing the ranking with what is known of current delivery rates nationally.

RESULTS

The 3 highest-ranking services, each with a total score of 10, are immunizing children, counseling to prevent tobacco initiation among youth, and tobacco-use screening and brief intervention to encourage cessation among adults. Greatest population health improvement could be obtained from increasing utilization of clinical preventive services that address tobacco use, obesity-related behaviors, and alcohol misuse, as well as colorectal cancer screening and influenza vaccinations.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies high-priority preventive services and should help decision makers select which services to emphasize in quality-improvement initiatives.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Brief Clinician Tobacco Counseling for Youth and Adults

PURPOSE

To help clinicians and care systems determine the priority for tobacco counseling in busy clinic schedules, we assessed the lifetime health and economic value of annually counseling youth to discourage smoking initiation and of annually counseling adults to encourage cessation.

METHODS

We conducted a microsimulation analysis to estimate the health impact and cost effectiveness of both types of tobacco counseling in a US birth cohort of 4,000,000. The model used for the analysis was constructed from nationally representative data sets and structured literature reviews.

RESULTS

Compared with no tobacco counseling, the model predicts that annual counseling for youth would reduce the average prevalence of smoking cigarettes during adult years by 2.0 percentage points, whereas annual counseling for adults will reduce prevalence by 3.8 percentage points. Youth counseling would prevent 42,686 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 756,601 over the lifetime of the cohort. Adult counseling would prevent 69,901 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase QALYs by 1,044,392. Youth and adult counseling would yield net savings of $225 and $580 per person, respectively. If annual tobacco counseling was provided to the cohort during both youth and adult years, then adult smoking prevalence would be 5.5 percentage points lower compared with no counseling, and there would be 105,917 fewer smoking-attributable fatalities over their lifetimes. Only one-third of the potential health and economic benefits of counseling are being realized at current counseling rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Brief tobacco counseling provides substantial health benefits while producing cost savings. Both youth and adult intervention are high-priority uses of limited clinician time.

Patient characteristics associated with greater blood pressure control in a randomized trial of home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist management

This paper reports subgroup analysis of a successful cluster-randomized trial to identify attributes of hypertensive patients who benefited more or less from an intervention combining blood pressure (BP) telemonitoring and pharmacist management. The end point was BP < 140/90 mm Hg at 6-month follow-up. Fourteen baseline patient characteristics were selected a priori as subgroup variables. Among the 351 trial participants, 44% were female, 84% non-Hispanic white, mean age was 60.9 years, and mean BP was 149/86 mm Hg. The overall adjusted odds ratio for BP control in the intervention versus usual care group was 3.64 (P < .001). The effect of the intervention was significantly larger in patients who were younger (interaction P = .02), did not have diabetes (P = .005), had high baseline diastolic BP (P = .02), added salt less than daily in food preparation (P = .007), and took 0-2 (rather than 3-6) antihypertensive medication classes at baseline (P = .02). These findings may help prioritize patients for whom the intervention is most effective.

The financial impact of team-based care on primary care

OBJECTIVES

Although team-based care can improve coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors and is considered cost-effective from a healthcare system perspective, little is known about the financial impact of team-based primary care for secondary prevention of CHD. The purpose of this study was to define the impact of team-based care for CHD on utilization, costs, and revenue of a private primary care practice.

STUDY DESIGN

Interrupted time series analysis.

METHODS

Between March 1, 2010, and March 31, 2013, we assisted a private medical practice, comprising 5 primary care clinic sites, to organize and deliver team-based care for patients with CHD. We used billing records and the registered nurse care manager's diary to calculate the cost of team-based care, differences in the average number of visits per patient, and revenue per patient before and after the implementation of team-based care.

RESULTS

The net cost of team-based primary care was $291 per patient over the 1-year period of observation.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from this study are consistent with other economic analyses of team-based care and suggest that payment for care must be restructured if patients are expected to enjoy the benefits of team-based primary care.

A substudy evaluating treatment intensification on medication adherence among hypertensive patients receiving home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist management

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE

Hypertension is a leading cause of death and major contributor to heart attacks, strokes, heart and kidney failure. Antihypertensive (HTN medication) non-adherence contributes to uncontrolled hypertension. Effective initiatives to improve uncontrolled hypertension include a team-based approach with home blood pressure (BP) monitoring. Our study objective was to evaluate whether objectively measured medication adherence was influenced by home BP telemonitoring and pharmacist management.

METHODS

We analysed HTN medication adherence in 240 patients who received home BP telemonitoring and pharmacist intervention (TI). Adherence was measured based on prescription fills and the proportion of days covered (PDC). HTN medications continued pre- to post-baseline were similar for telemonitoring intervention (TI) and usual care (UC) patients (rate ratio = 1·00, P = 0·90).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

More HTN medications were discontinued pre- to post-baseline in TI patients (rate ratio = 1·38, P = 0·04). Similarly, more HTN medications were added in TI patients (rate ratio = 2·46, P < 0·001). The proportion with a mean PDC ≥ 0·8 for HTN medications added after baseline and overall adherence did not differ between groups.

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

Medication adherence was high in both groups; however, medication adherence was not significantly altered by the intervention. There were more medication modifications and greater medication intensification among TI patients.

Aspirin for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: A Decision Analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force

BACKGROUND

Evidence indicates that aspirin is effective for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC) but also increases the risk for gastrointestinal (GI) and cerebral hemorrhages.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the net balance of benefits and harms from routine aspirin use across clinically relevant age, sex, and CVD risk groups.

DESIGN

Decision analysis using a microsimulation model.

DATA SOURCES

3 systematic evidence reviews.

TARGET POPULATION

Men and women aged 40 to 79 years with a 10-year CVD risk of 20% or less, and no history of CVD and without elevated risk for GI or cerebral hemorrhages that would contraindicate aspirin use.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime, 20 years, and 10 years.

PERSPECTIVE

Clinical.

INTERVENTION

Low-dose aspirin (≤100 mg/d).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcomes are length and quality of life measured in net life-years and quality-adjusted life-years. Benefits include reduced nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal CVD, CRC incidence, and CRC mortality. Harms include increased fatal and nonfatal GI bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Lifetime net quality-adjusted life-years are positive for most adults initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 69 years, and life expectancy gains are expected for most men and women initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 59 years and 60 to 69 years with higher CVD risk. Harms may exceed benefits for persons starting aspirin in their 70s and for many during the first 10 to 20 years of use.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Results are most sensitive to the relative risk for hemorrhagic stroke and CVD mortality but are affected by all relative risk estimates, baseline GI bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates, and disutilities associated with aspirin use.

LIMITATIONS

Aspirin effects by age are uncertain. Stroke benefits are conservatively estimated. Gastrointestinal bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates account only for age and sex.

CONCLUSION

Lifetime aspirin use for primary prevention initiated at younger ages (40 to 69 years) and in persons with higher CVD risk shows the greatest potential for positive net benefit.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Modeled Health and Economic Impact of Team-Based Care for Hypertension

INTRODUCTION

Team-based interventions for hypertension care have been widely studied and shown effective in improving hypertension outcomes. Few studies have evaluated long-term effects of these interventions; none have assessed broad-scale implementation. This study estimates the prospective health, economic, and budgetary impact of universal adoption of a team-based care intervention model that targets people with treated but uncontrolled hypertension in the U.S.

METHODS

Analysis was conducted in 2014-2015 using a microsimulation model, constructed with various data sources from 1948 to 2014, designed to evaluate prospective cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related interventions in the U.S.

POPULATION

Ten-year primary outcomes included prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension; incident myocardial infarction, stroke, CVD events, and CVD-related mortality; intervention and net medical costs by payer; productivity; and quality-adjusted life years.

RESULTS

About 4.7 million (13%) fewer people with uncontrolled hypertension and 638,000 prevented cardiovascular events would be expected over 10 years. Assuming $525 per enrollee, implementation would cost payers $22.9 billion, but $25.3 billion would be saved in averted medical costs. Estimated net cost savings for Medicare approached $5.8 billion. Net costs were especially sensitive to intervention costs, with break-even thresholds of $300 (private), $450 (Medicaid), and $750 (Medicare).

CONCLUSIONS

Nationwide adoption of team-based care for uncontrolled hypertension could have sizable effects in reducing CVD burden. Based on the study's assumptions, the policy would be cost saving from the perspective of Medicare and may prove to be cost effective from other payers' perspectives. Expected net cost savings for Medicare would more than offset expected net costs for all other insurers.

Using Principles of Complex Adaptive Systems to Implement Secondary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease in Primary Care

CONTEXT

Primary care practice.

OBJECTIVE

To test whether the principles of complex adaptive systems are applicable to implementation of team-based primary care.

DESIGN

We used complex adaptive system principles to implement team-based care in a private, five-clinic primary care practice. We compared randomly selected samples of patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and diabetes before system implementation (March 1, 2009, to February 28, 2010) and after system implementation (December 1, 2011, to March 31, 2013).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rates of patients meeting the composite goals for CHD (blood pressure < 140/90 mmHg, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level < 100 mg/dL, tobacco-free, and using aspirin unless contraindicated) and diabetes (CHD goal plus hemoglobin A1c concentration < 8%) before and after the intervention. We also measured provider and patient satisfaction with preventive services.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients with CHD who met the composite goal increased from 40.3% to 59.9% (p < 0.0001) because documented aspirin use increased (65.2%-97.5%, p < 0.0001) and attainment of the cholesterol goal increased (77.0%-83.9%, p = 0.0041). The proportion of diabetic patients meeting the composite goal rose from 24.5% to 45.4% (p < 0.0001) because aspirin use increased (58.6%-97.6%, p < 0.0001). Increased percentages of patients meeting the CHD and diabetes composite goals were not significantly different (p = 0.2319). Provider satisfaction with preventive services delivery increased significantly (p = 0.0017). Patient satisfaction improved but not significantly.

CONCLUSION

Principles of complex adaptive systems can be used to implement team-based care systems for patients with CHD and possibly diabetic patients.

A Successful Multifaceted Trial to Improve Hypertension Control in Primary Care: Why Did it Work?

BACKGROUND

It is important to understand which components of successful multifaceted interventions are responsible for study outcomes, since some components may be more important contributors to the intervention effect than others.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a mediation analysis to determine which of seven factors had the greatest effect on change in systolic blood pressure (BP) after 6 months in a trial to improve hypertension control.

DESIGN

The study was a preplanned secondary analysis of a cluster-randomized clinical trial. Eight clinics in an integrated health system were randomized to provide usual care to their patients (n = 222), and eight were randomized to provide a telemonitoring intervention (n = 228).

PARTICIPANTS

Four hundred three of 450 trial participants completing the 6-month follow-up visit were included.

INTERVENTIONS

Intervention group participants received home BP telemonitors and transmitted measurements to pharmacists, who adjusted medications and provided advice to improve adherence to medications and lifestyle modification via telephone visits.

MAIN MEASURES

Path analytic models estimated indirect effects of the seven potential mediators of intervention effect (defined as the difference between the intervention and usual care groups in change in systolic BP from baseline to 6 months). The potential mediators were change in home BP monitor use, number of BP medication classes, adherence to BP medications, physical activity, salt intake, alcohol use, and weight.

KEY RESULTS

The difference in change in systolic BP was 11.3 mmHg. The multivariable mediation model explained 47 % (5.3 mmHg) of the intervention effect. Nearly all of this was mediated by two factors: an increase in medication treatment intensity (24 %) and increased home BP monitor use (19 %). The other five factors were not significant mediators, although medication adherence and salt intake improved more in the intervention group than in the usual care group.

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the explained intervention effect was attributable to the combination of self-monitoring and medication intensification. High adherence at baseline and the relatively low intensity of resources directed toward lifestyle change may explain why these factors did not contribute to the improvement in BP.

A stepped-wedge evaluation of an initiative to spread the collaborative care model for depression in primary care

PURPOSE

Scale-up and spread of evidence-based practices is one of the most important challenges facing health care. We tested whether a statewide initiative, Depression Improvement Across Minnesota-Offering a New Direction (DIAMOND), to implement the collaborative care model for depression in 75 primary care clinics resulted in patient outcome improvements corresponding to those reported in randomized controlled trials.

METHODS

Health plans provided a new monthly payment to participating clinics after a 6-month intensive training program with ongoing data submission, networking, and consultation. Implementation was staggered, with 5 sequences of 10 to 40 clinics every 6 months. Payers provided weekly contact information for members from participating clinics who were filling antidepressant prescriptions, and we conducted baseline and 6-month surveys of 1,578 patients about their care and outcomes.

RESULTS

There were 466 patients in DIAMOND clinics who received usual care before implementation (UCB), 559 who received usual care in DIAMOND clinics after implementation (UCA), 245 who received DIAMOND care after implementation (DCA), and 308 who received usual care in comparison clinics (UC). Patients who received DIAMOND care after implementation reported more collaborative care depression services than the 3 comparison groups (10.9 vs 6.4-6.7, on a scale of 0 of 14, where higher numbers indicate more services; P <.001) and more satisfaction with their care (4.0 vs 3.4 on a scale 1 to 5, in which higher scores indicate higher satisfaction; P ≤.001). Depression remission rates, however, were not significantly different among the 4 groups (36.4% DCA vs 35.8% UCB, 35.0% UCA, 33.9% UC; P = .94).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the incentive of a supporting payment change and intensive training and support for clinics volunteering to participate, no difference in depression outcomes was documented. Specific unmeasured actions present in trials but not present in these clinics may be critical for successful outcome improvement.

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach

OBJECTIVE

To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential.

METHOD

We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method.

RESULTS

Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35-54years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations.

CONCLUSION

Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers' excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting.

Reducing childhood obesity through U.S. federal policy: a microsimulation analysis

BACKGROUND

Childhood obesity prevalence remains high in the U.S., especially among racial/ethnic minorities and low-income populations. Federal policy is important in improving public health given its broad reach. Information is needed about federal policies that could reduce childhood obesity rates and by how much.

PURPOSE

To estimate the impact of three federal policies on childhood obesity prevalence in 2032, after 20 years of implementation.

METHODS

Criteria were used to select the three following policies to reduce childhood obesity from 26 recommended policies: afterschool physical activity programs, a $0.01/ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) excise tax, and a ban on child-directed fast food TV advertising. For each policy, the literature was reviewed from January 2000 through July 2012 to find evidence of effectiveness and create average effect sizes. In 2012, a Markov microsimulation model estimated each policy's impact on diet or physical activity, and then BMI, in a simulated school-aged population in 2032.

RESULTS

The microsimulation predicted that afterschool physical activity programs would reduce obesity the most among children aged 6-12 years (1.8 percentage points) and the advertising ban would reduce obesity the least (0.9 percentage points). The SSB excise tax would reduce obesity the most among adolescents aged 13-18 years (2.4 percentage points). All three policies would reduce obesity more among blacks and Hispanics than whites, with the SSB excise tax reducing obesity disparities the most.

CONCLUSIONS

All three policies would reduce childhood obesity prevalence by 2032. However, a national $0.01/ounce SSB excise tax is the best option.

The effect of depression treatment on work productivity

OBJECTIVES

Depression is associated with lowered work functioning, including absence, productivity impairment at work, and decreased job retention. Although high-quality depression treatment provided in clinical trials has been found to reduce symptoms and improve work function, the effectiveness of routine treatment for depression in primary care has received less attention.

STUDY DESIGN

This prospective cohort study investigated the relationship between improvements in both depression symptoms and productivity in outpatients from 77 clinics in Minnesota following routine depression treatment.

METHODS

Data were obtained from patients receiving usual care for depression prior to initiation of a statewide quality improvement collaborative called DIAMOND (Depression Improvement Across Minnesota: Offering a New Direction). Patients started on antidepressants were surveyed on depression symptom severity (Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ-9]), productivity loss (Work Productivity and Activity Impairment questionnaire [WPAI]), health status, and demographics. Data were collected again 6 months later to assess changes in depression symptoms and productivity.

RESULTS

Data from 432 employed patients with complete baseline and outcome data showed significant reductions in depression symptoms and increases in productivity (P < .0001) over 6 months. Greater improvements in productivity at 6 months were associated with greater improvement in depression symptoms as well as with greater depression severity (P < .0001) and poorer productivity (P < .0001) at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated a significant relationship betweenimprovement in depression symptoms and improvements in productivity following routine primary care depression treatment. These findings underscore the benefit of depression care to improve work outcomes and to yield a potential return on healthcare investment to employers.

Effect of home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist management on blood pressure control: a cluster randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE

Only about half of patients with high blood pressure (BP) in the United States have their BP controlled. Practical, robust, and sustainable models are needed to improve BP control in patients with uncontrolled hypertension.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether an intervention combining home BP telemonitoring with pharmacist case management improves BP control compared with usual care and to determine whether BP control is maintained after the intervention is stopped.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

A cluster randomized clinical trial of 450 adults with uncontrolled BP recruited from 14,692 patients with electronic medical records across 16 primary care clinics in an integrated health system in Minneapolis-St Paul, Minnesota, with 12 months of intervention and 6 months of postintervention follow-up.

INTERVENTIONS

Eight clinics were randomized to provide usual care to patients (n = 222) and 8 clinics were randomized to provide a telemonitoring intervention (n = 228). Intervention patients received home BP telemonitors and transmitted BP data to pharmacists who adjusted antihypertensive therapy accordingly.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Control of systolic BP to less than 140 mm Hg and diastolic BP to less than 90 mm Hg (<130/80 mm Hg in patients with diabetes or chronic kidney disease) at 6 and 12 months. Secondary outcomes were change in BP, patient satisfaction, and BP control at 18 months (6 months after intervention stopped).

RESULTS

At baseline, enrollees were 45% women, 82% white, mean (SD) age was 61.1 (12.0) years, and mean systolic BP was 148 mm Hg and diastolic BP was 85 mm Hg. Blood pressure was controlled at both 6 and 12 months in 57.2% (95% CI, 44.8% to 68.7%) of patients in the telemonitoring intervention group vs 30.0% (95% CI, 23.2% to 37.8%) of patients in the usual care group (P = .001). At 18 months (6 months of postintervention follow-up), BP was controlled in 71.8% (95% CI, 65.0% to 77.8%) of patients in the telemonitoring intervention group vs 57.1% (95% CI, 51.5% to 62.6%) of patients in the usual care group (P = .003). Compared with the usual care group, systolic BP decreased more from baseline among patients in the telemonitoring intervention group at 6 months (-10.7 mm Hg [95% CI, -14.3 to -7.3 mm Hg]; P<.001), at 12 months (-9.7 mm Hg [95% CI, -13.4 to -6.0 mm Hg]; P<.001), and at 18 months (-6.6 mm Hg [95% CI, -10.7 to -2.5 mm Hg]; P = .004). Compared with the usual care group, diastolic BP decreased more from baseline among patients in the telemonitoring intervention group at 6 months (-6.0 mm Hg [95% CI, -8.6 to -3.4 mm Hg]; P<.001), at 12 months (-5.1 mm Hg [95% CI, -7.4 to -2.8 mm Hg]; P<.001), and at 18 months (-3.0 mm Hg [95% CI, -6.3 to 0.3 mm Hg]; P = .07).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Home BP telemonitoring and pharmacist case management achieved better BP control compared with usual care during 12 months of intervention that persisted during 6 months of postintervention follow-up.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00781365.

Abstract 26: Durability Of Blood Pressure Control In A Randomized Trial Of Home Telemonitoring With Pharmacist Case Management (Hyperlink)

Background: Patients with high blood pressure (BP) visit a physician on average 4 times per year, but fewer than half have controlled BP. Practical, effective, and sustainable models are needed to improve BP management. Accumulating evidence supports the effectiveness of team-based models for care and home telemonitoring, but few studies have examined whether effects persist after intervention completion.

Aims: Hyperlink is a clinic-randomized trial testing an intervention combining home BP telemonitoring with pharmacist case management in patients with uncontrolled hypertension.

Methods: We enrolled 450 patients with uncontrolled BP from 16 primary care clinics, 8 randomized to usual care (UC, 222 patients) and 8 to telemonitoring intervention (TI, 228 patients). TI patients received home telemonitors that transmit BP data to a secure database. Pharmacists met with TI patients by phone and adjusted drug therapy based on home BP data. The intervention had an ‘intensive’ phase for the first 6 months and a ‘maintenance’ phase with less frequent pharmacist support through 12 months. Patients were followed through 18 months to observe durability of effects on BP control (<140/90 mm Hg, <130/80 mm Hg if diabetes or kidney disease). General and generalized linear mixed models were used to accommodate the cluster-randomization.

Results: Enrollees were 45% female, 82% white, and 12% black, with mean age of 61 years. Mean BP at baseline was 148/85 mm Hg in both groups. Results indicate a significant effect on BP control in the TI group. Around 71% of TI patients achieved BP control at each time point, while UC BP control was 45.2% at 6 months, 52.8% at 12 months and 57.1% at 18 months. The mean difference in BP change (mm Hg) between groups from baseline was -10.7/-6.0 at 6 months, -9.7/-5.1 at 12 months, and -6.6/-3.0 at 18 months (Table 1, attached). Mean number of drugs per patient increased in TI from 1.5 at baseline to 2.2 at 6 months, persisting through 18 months. A small increase was observed in UC, with 1.4 at baseline, 1.6 at 6 and 12 months, and 1.7 at 18 months.

Conclusions: Home telemonitoring with pharmacist case management was effective at reducing BP for 12 months, with a persistent effect 6 months later. Further long-term follow-up of study participants is planned.

Greater use of preventive services in U.S. health care could save lives at little or no cost

There is broad debate over whether preventive health services save money or represent a good investment. This paper analyzes the estimated cost of adopting a package of twenty proven preventive services--including tobacco cessation screening, alcohol abuse screening, and daily aspirin use--against the estimated savings that could be generated. We find that greater use of proven clinical preventive services in the United States could avert the loss of more than two million life-years annually. What's more, increasing the use of these services from current levels to 90 percent in 2006 would result in total savings of $3.7 billion, or 0.2 percent of U.S. personal health care spending. These findings suggest that policy makers should pursue options that move the nation toward greater use of proven preventive services.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of screening for KRAS and BRAF mutations in metastatic colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

In 2009, the American Society of Clinical Oncology recommended that patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) who are candidates for anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) therapy have their tumors tested for KRAS mutations because tumors with such mutations do not respond to anti-EGFR therapy. Limiting anti-EGFR therapy to those without KRAS mutations will reserve treatment for those likely to benefit while avoiding unnecessary costs and harm to those who would not. Similarly, tumors with BRAF genetic mutations may not respond to anti-EGFR therapy, though this is less clear. Economic analyses of mutation testing have not fully explored the roles of alternative therapies and resection of metastases.

METHODS

This paper is based on a decision analytic framework that forms the basis of a cost-effectiveness analysis of screening for KRAS and BRAF mutations in mCRC in the context of treatment with cetuximab. A cohort of 50 000 patients with mCRC is simulated 10 000 times, with attributes randomly assigned on the basis of distributions from randomized controlled trials.

RESULTS

Screening for both KRAS and BRAF mutations compared with the base strategy (of no anti-EGFR therapy) increases expected overall survival by 0.034 years at a cost of $22 033, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of approximately $650 000 per additional year of life. Compared with anti-EGFR therapy without screening, adding KRAS testing saves approximately $7500 per patient; adding BRAF testing saves another $1023, with little reduction in expected survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for KRAS and BFAF mutation improves the cost-effectiveness of anti-EGFR therapy, but the incremental cost effectiveness ratio remains above the generally accepted threshold for acceptable cost effectiveness ratio of $100 000/quality adjusted life year.

Adherence to blood pressure telemonitoring in a cluster-randomized clinical trial

Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease and death worldwide. Advances in technology have added telemedicine as a tool for managing hypertension. The effectiveness of telemedicine depends on patients' ability to adhere to schedules of home monitoring and case management. Participants with uncontrolled hypertension in the intervention arm of a randomized trial who completed 6 months of follow-up were included in this analysis. They were asked to measure their blood pressure (BP) a minimum of 6 times per week using a telemonitor that transmitted the readings to their pharmacist case manager. Hypertensive patients in this study had high adherence to telemonitoring (73% took at least 6 BP readings per week) and phone visits (88% of expected visits were attended). In a multivariate analysis, older age, male sex, and some college education predicted better telemonitoring adherence. White non-Hispanic race/ethnicity predicted better adherence to phone visits with pharmacist case managers. Telemonitoring adherence and phone adherence were highly correlated; participants who did not send readings on schedule were more likely to skip at least one phone visit with their pharmacist case manager. The findings from this analysis indicate that hypertensive patients in this study were able to achieve and maintain high adherence to both the telemonitoring and the phone case management visits.

Design and rationale for Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Case Management to Control Hypertension (HyperLink): a cluster randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Patients with high blood pressure (BP) visit a physician an average of 4 times or more per year in the U.S., yet BP is controlled in fewer than half. Practical, robust and sustainable models are needed to improve BP in patients with uncontrolled hypertension.

OBJECTIVES

The Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring and Case Management to Control Hypertension study (HyperLink) is a cluster-randomized trial designed to determine whether an intervention that combines home BP telemonitoring with pharmacist case management improves BP control compared to usual care at 6 and 12 months in patients with uncontrolled hypertension. Secondary outcomes are maintenance of BP control at 18 months, patient satisfaction with their health care, and costs of care.

METHODS

HyperLink enrolled 450 hypertensive patients with uncontrolled BP from 16 primary care clinics. Eight clinics were randomized to provide usual care (UC) to their patients (n=222) and 8 were randomized to provide the telemonitoring intervention (TI) (n=228). TI patients received home BP telemonitors that internally store and electronically transmit BP data to a secure database. Pharmacist case managers adjust antihypertensive therapy based on the home BP data under a collaborative practice agreement with the clinics' primary care teams. The length of the intervention is 12 months, with follow-up to 18 months to determine the durability of the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

We will test in a real primary care setting whether combining BP telemonitoring and pharmacist case management can achieve and maintain high rates of BP control compared to usual care.

Abstract 7: Outcomes at Six Months of a Randomized Trial of Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring with Pharmacist Case Management

Background: Patients with high blood pressure (BP) visit a physician on average 4 times per year, though fewer than half achieve BP control. Practical, effective, and sustainable models are needed to improve BP management.

Aims: Hyperlink is a clinic-randomized trial testing an intervention that combines home BP telemonitoring with pharmacist case management in patients with uncontrolled hypertension.

Methods: We enrolled 450 patients with uncontrolled BP from 16 primary care clinics. Eight clinics (222 patients) were randomized to usual care and 8 clinics (228 patients) to intervention. Intervention patients received home telemonitors that transmit BP data to a secure database. Pharmacists consult with patients by phone and adjust antihypertensive therapy based on home BP data. The intervention lasts 12 months with follow-up to 18 months to observe durability. The primary outcome is BP control at 6 and 12 months, defined as BP ≤140/90 mm Hg (or ≤130/80 mm Hg in patients with chronic kidney disease or diabetes). Data on demographics, medication use and adherence, and satisfaction with care were also gathered. Here we report 6-month BP outcomes. General and generalized linear mixed models are used to accommodate the cluster-randomization.

Results: Enrollees were 45% female, 83% white, and 13% black, with mean age of 61 years. Mean BP at baseline was 148/85 mm Hg in both treatment groups. Of the 403 attending the 6-month visit (197 usual care, 206 intervention), 45.2% in usual care and 71.8% in intervention achieved BP control (p<0.0001). In usual care, mean systolic BP decreased by 10.3 mm Hg and diastolic decreased by 3.4 mm Hg. In intervention, mean systolic BP decreased by 21.6 mm Hg and diastolic decreased by 9.3 mm Hg. The difference in change between groups was 11.3 mm Hg systolic (p<0.0001) and 5.8 mm Hg diastolic (p=0.003). Self-reported satisfaction with care in the six months following baseline was higher for intervention (mean=4.6) than usual care (mean=4.4, p<0.01), on a 5 point scale (1=worst care possible, 5=best care possible). Between baseline and 6 months mean number of antihypertensive drugs used per participant increased from 1.4 to 1.6 in usual care and from 1.5 to 2.3 in intervention. The difference between treatment groups in increased drug use from a particular class was largest among thiazide diuretics (4.6% increase usual care, 27.6% intervention) and ACE inhibitors (1.6% increase usual care, 13.6% intervention). Calcium channel blocker and beta blocker use also increased more among intervention patients, while loop diuretic use decreased. Self-reported adherence to BP medications indicated better adherence for intervention (mean=0.7) than usual care (0.3, p<0.01) measured on the Morisky scale (0-4, lower scores indicating better adherence) during the 6 months following the baseline visit.

Conclusions: Home telemonitoring with pharmacist case management was effective at reducing BP for hypertensive patients over 6 months. This intervention may be cost-effective for managing hypertensive patients with uncontrolled BP, especially if results are sustained during the maintenance and post-intervention phases of follow-up.

Severity of depression and magnitude of productivity loss

PURPOSE

Depression is associated with lowered work functioning, including absences, impaired productivity, and decreased job retention. Few studies have examined depression symptoms across a continuum of severity in relationship to the magnitude of work impairment in a large and heterogeneous patient population, however. We assessed the relationship between depression symptom severity and productivity loss among patients initiating treatment for depression.

METHODS

Data were obtained from patients participating in the DIAMOND (Depression Improvement Across Minnesota: Offering a New Direction) initiative, a statewide quality improvement collaborative to provide enhanced depression care. Patients newly started on antidepressants were surveyed with the Patient Health Questionnaire 9-item screen (PHQ-9), a measure of depression symptom severity; the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment (WPAI) questionnaire, a measure of loss in productivity; and items on health status and demographics.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from the 771 patients who reported being currently employed. General linear models adjusting for demographics and health status showed a significant linear, monotonic relationship between depression symptom severity and productivity loss: with every 1-point increase in PHQ-9 score, patients experienced an additional mean productivity loss of 1.65% (P <.001). Even minor levels of depression symptoms were associated with decrements in work function. Full-time vs part-time employment status and self-reported fair or poor health vs excellent, very good, or good health were also associated with a loss of productivity (P <.001 and P=.045, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows a relationship between the severity of depression symptoms and work function, and suggests that even minor levels of depression are associated with a loss of productivity. Employers may find it beneficial to invest in effective treatments for depressed employees across the continuum of depression severity.

Births by Day of Week: A Historical Perspective

Our objective was to describe the historical pattern of the decline in weekend births. Data on 906,100 health maintenance organization enrollees' birthdates were analyzed to show patterns of birth by day of week from 1910 to 1999. The decline in Sunday births dates to the 1930s, and the decline in Saturday births dates to the 1950s, far earlier than previously demonstrated in the literature. The expected natural birth process has been significantly modified. By examining a much longer time series than in other literature, it is also possible to see that the trend is not abating and may be increasing.

Primary care intervention to reduce alcohol misuse ranking its health impact and cost effectiveness

BACKGROUND

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) has recommended screening and behavioral counseling interventions in primary care to reduce alcohol misuse. This study was designed to develop a standardized rating for the clinically preventable burden and cost effectiveness of complying with that recommendation that would allow comparisons across many recommended services.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature from 1992 through 2004 to identify relevant randomized controlled trials and cost-effectiveness studies was completed in 2005. Clinically preventable burden (CPB) was calculated as the product of effectiveness times the alcohol-attributable fraction of both mortality and morbidity (measured in quality-adjusted life years or QALYs), for all relevant conditions. Cost effectiveness from both the societal perspective and the health-system perspective was estimated. These analyses were completed in 2006.

RESULTS

The calculated CPB was 176,000 QALYs saved over the lifetime of a birth cohort of 4,000,000, with a range in sensitivity analysis from -43% to +94% (primarily due to variation in estimates of effectiveness). Screening and brief counseling was cost-saving from the societal perspective and had a cost-effectiveness ratio of $1755/QALY saved from the health-system perspective. Sensitivity analysis indicates that from both perspectives the service is very cost effective and may be cost saving.

CONCLUSIONS

These results make alcohol screening and counseling one of the highest-ranking preventive services among the 25 effective services evaluated using standardized methods. Since current levels of delivery are the lowest of comparably ranked services, this service deserves special attention by clinicians and care delivery systems.

Proactive recruitment of health plan smokers into telephone counseling

We tested whether a 3-month beneficial effect of telephone counseling as an adjunct to the use of medications for smoking cessation was maintained through 12 months. Health plan members filling a prescription for cessation medications were randomized either to a no-contact control group or to proactive recruitment into telephone counseling. An increased point-prevalence quit rate at 3 months (33.1% vs. 27.4%, p<.05) among smokers randomized to proactive recruitment for telephone counseling was not maintained. Although at 12 months smokers in the proactive recruitment arm were more likely to report a 24-hr quit attempt, compared with control group smokers (86.7% vs. 80.8%, p = .027), we found no differences between the groups in repeated (3-month and 12-month) 7-day point-prevalence quit rates. In an analysis of predictors of quitting, age, marital status, making a lifestyle change, and the presence of household smokers were associated with repeated 3-month and 12-month point-prevalence abstinence. Offering telephone counseling to insured smokers who have filled prescriptions for cessation medications did not increase long-term quit rates. Although other variations of this approach might be tested, we suspect that it might be more useful to test innovative ways to influence the factors we identified as being most strongly predictive of lack of successful quitting.

Influenza vaccination health impact and cost effectiveness among adults aged 50 to 64 and 65 and older

BACKGROUND

Influenza causes approximately 36,000 deaths per year in the United States despite the presence of an effective vaccine. This assessment of the value of influenza vaccination to the U.S. population is part of an update to the 2001 ranking of clinical preventive services recommended by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. The forthcoming ranking will include the new recommendation of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to extend influenza vaccination to adults aged 50 to 64 years.

METHODS

This service is evaluated on the two most important dimensions: burden of disease prevented and cost effectiveness. Study methods, described in a companion article, are designed to ensure consistency across many services.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime of a birth cohort of 4 million, it is estimated that about 275,000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) would be saved if influenza vaccination were offered annually to all people after age 50. Eighty percent of the QALYs saved (220,000) would be achieved by offering the vaccine only to persons aged 65 and older. In year 2000 dollars, the cost effectiveness of influenza vaccination is $980 per QALY saved in persons aged 65 and older, and $28,000 per QALY saved in persons aged 50 to 64. When the costs of patient time and travel are excluded, the cost effectiveness ratio of vaccinating 50- to 64-year-olds decreases to $7200 per QALY saved, and vaccinating those aged 65 and older saves $17 per person vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination is a high-impact, cost-effective service for persons aged 65 and older. Vaccinations are also cost effective for persons aged 50 to 64.

Colorectal cancer screening: health impact and cost effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States, yet recommended screenings are not delivered to most people. This assessment of colorectal cancer screening's value to the U.S. population is part of the update to a 2001 ranking of recommended clinical preventive services found in the accompanying article. This article describes the burden of disease prevented and cost-effectiveness as a result of offering patients a choice of colorectal cancer screening tools.

METHODS

Methods used were designed to ensure consistent estimates across many services and are described in more detail in the companion articles. In a secondary analysis, the authors also estimated the impact of increasing offers for colorectal cancer screening above current levels among the current cross-section of adults aged 50 and older.

RESULTS

If a birth cohort of 4 million were offered screening at recommended intervals, 31,500 deaths would be prevented and 338,000 years of life would be gained over the lifetime of the birth cohort. In the current cross-section of people aged 50 and older, 18,800 deaths could be prevented each year by offering all people in this group screening at recommended intervals. Only 58% of these deaths are currently being prevented. In year 2000 dollars, the cost effectiveness of offering patients aged 50 and older a choice of colorectal cancer screening options is $11,900 per year of life gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Colorectal cancer screening is a high-impact, cost-effective service used by less than half of persons aged 50 and older.

Priorities among effective clinical preventive services: results of a systematic review and analysis

BACKGROUND

Decision makers at multiple levels need information about which clinical preventive services matter the most so that they can prioritize their actions. This study was designed to produce comparable estimates of relative health impact and cost effectiveness for services considered effective by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force and Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.

METHODS

The National Commission on Prevention Priorities (NCPP) guided this update to a 2001 ranking of clinical preventive services. The NCPP used new preventive service recommendations up to December 2004, improved methods, and more complete and recent data and evidence. Each service received 1 to 5 points on each of two measures--clinically preventable burden and cost effectiveness--for a total score ranging from 2 to 10. Priorities for improving delivery rates were established by comparing the ranking with what is known of current delivery rates nationally.

RESULTS

The three highest-ranking services each with a total score of 10 are discussing aspirin use with high-risk adults, immunizing children, and tobacco-use screening and brief intervention. High-ranking services (scores of 6 and above) with data indicating low current utilization rates (around 50% or lower) include: tobacco-use screening and brief intervention, screening adults aged 50 and older for colorectal cancer, immunizing adults aged 65 and older against pneumococcal disease, and screening young women for Chlamydia.

CONCLUSION

This study identifies the most valuable clinical preventive services that can be offered in medical practice and should help decision-makers select which services to emphasize.

Priorities among effective clinical preventive services: methods

Decision makers want to know which healthcare services matter the most, but there are no well-established, practical methods for providing evidence-based answers to such questions. Led by the National Commission on Prevention Priorities, the authors update the methods for determining the relative health impact and economic value of clinical preventive services. Using new studies, new preventive service recommendations, and improved methods, the authors present a new ranking of clinical preventive services in the companion article. The original ranking and methods were published in this journal in 2001. The current methods report focuses on evidence collection for a priority setting exercise, guidance for which is effectively lacking in the literature. The authors describe their own standards for searching, tracking, and abstracting literature for priority setting. The authors also summarize their methods for making valid comparisons across different services. This report should be useful to those who want to understand additional detail about how the ranking was developed or who want to adapt the methods for their own purposes.

Repeated tobacco-use screening and intervention in clinical practice: health impact and cost effectiveness

BACKGROUND

This report updates 2001 estimates of disease burden prevented and cost effectiveness of tobacco-use screening and brief intervention relative to that of other clinical preventive services. It also addresses repeated counseling because the literature has focused on single episodes of treatment, while in reality that is neither desirable nor likely.

METHODS

Literature searches led to four models for calculating the clinically preventable burden of deaths and morbidity from smoking as well as the cost effectiveness of providing the service annually over time. The same methods were used in similar calculations for other preventive services to facilitate comparison.

RESULTS

Using methods consistent with existing literature for this service, an estimated 190,000 undiscounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) are saved at a cost of $1100 per QALY saved (discounted). These estimates exclude financial savings from smoking-attributable disease prevented and use the average 12-month quit rate in clinical practice for tobacco screening and brief cessation counseling with cessation medications (5.0%) and without (2.4%). Including the savings of prevented smoking-attributable disease and using the effectiveness of repeated interventions over the lifetime of smokers (23.1%), 2.47 million QALYs are saved at a cost savings of $500 per smoker who receives the service.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis makes repeated clinical tobacco-cessation counseling one of the three most important and cost-effective preventive services that can be provided in medical practice. Greater efforts are needed to achieve more of this potential value by increasing current low levels of performance.

Creating Standard Cost Measures Across Integrated Health Care Delivery Systems

BACKGROUND

Economic analyses are increasingly important in medical research. Accuracy often requires that they include large, diverse populations, which requires data from multiple sources. The difficulty is in making the data comparable across different settings. This article focuses on how to create comparable measures of health care resource use and cost using data from seven health plans and delivery systems participating in the Cancer Research Network's HMOs Investigating Tobacco study.

METHODS

We used a data inventory to identify variation in data capture across sites and used data dictionaries to develop algorithms for assigning standardized cost to the three major components of health care use: outpatient, inpatient, and pharmacy.

RESULTS

The plans included in this study varied from fully integrated, closed-panel models to plans and delivery systems that include network or independent physician association components. Information derived from the data inventory and data dictionary instruments demonstrated a substantial variation in both the content and capture of data across all sites and across all components of usage. The methods we employed for cost allocation varied by usage component and were based on our ability to leverage the data points available to best reflect actual resource use.

CONCLUSIONS

The importance of this article is the method of ascertaining, cataloging, and addressing the within- and between-plan differences in health care resource use. Second, the decisions we made to address the differences between health plans provide other researchers a starting point when creating a cost algorithm for multisite retrospective research.

Cholesterol levels and statin use in patients with coronary heart disease treated in primary care settings

INTRODUCTION

Therapy with 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase inhibitors, or statins, has proven to be effective in the treatment of lipid disorders. However, statin therapy continues to be underused, even though statins are a relatively safe and well-tolerated class of agents. In this study, we assessed trends in lipid control in patients with heart disease who receive most of their health care in primary care clinics. The objective was to determine whether systems of care implemented within a large medical group are associated with improved treatment and control of dyslipidemia in a high-risk group of coronary heart disease patients.

METHODS

All adults with heart disease in a Minnesota medical group (N = 2947) were identified using diagnosis and procedure codes related to coronary heart disease (sensitivity = 0.85; positive predictive value = 0.89) in 1996. Study subjects were observed from 1995 to 1998. Subjects had a baseline and follow-up test for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Changes between baseline and follow-up measurements and trends in the use of statins and other lipid-active agents among the study subjects were analyzed.

RESULTS

Among 1388 subjects with two or more eligible lipid measurements, mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol improved from 137.6 mg/dL to 111.0 mg/dL (P < .001), and mean high-density lipoprotein cholesterol improved from 42.3 mg/dL to 46.3 mg/dL (P < .001). The percentage of patients with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol < or = 100 mg/dL rose from 12.5% to 39.8% (P < .001), and the percentage with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol > or = 40 mg/dL rose from 52.5% to 67.6% (P < .001). In multivariate models, statin use was identified as the main factor that contributed to the improvement in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P < .001). Men had greater decreases in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol than women after adjusting for other variables (P < .001). Statin use rose from 24.3% at baseline to 69.6% at follow-up. The statin discontinuation rate was 8.3% for baseline statin users and 12.2% for subjects who used statins at any time during the study period.

CONCLUSION

Investment in better heart disease care for patients in primary care clinics led to major improvement in lipid control over 30 months, primarily due to increased statin use. Improvements in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were sufficient to substantially reduce risk of subsequent major cardiovascular events.

Self-reported hypertension treatment beliefs and practices of primary care physicians in a managed care organization

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure (BP) is controlled to recommended goal in less than one-third of people with hypertension. There has been little recent research on physician beliefs and practices with regard to the treatment of hypertension.

METHODS

In late 1999, we surveyed 104 primary care physicians in the 18 owned clinics of a large staff model, non-profit health maintenance organization. The survey included questions about demographics, BP treatment goals for patients with uncomplicated hypertension, and beliefs about hypertension.

RESULTS

The reported systolic BP treatment goal was < or =140 mm Hg for 97% and the diastolic BP goal was < or =90 mm Hg for 100%. The systolic BP goal for patients with isolated systolic hypertension was < or =140 mm Hg for 82%, but 34% stated that they would treat to a different goal depending on the diastolic BP. The proportions of physicians who would intensify treatment for BP of 140/90 mm Hg, 150/95 mm Hg, 165/75 mm Hg, and 165/65 mm Hg were 64%, 97%, 89% and 77%, respectively. Although 93% believed that medication was necessary to control BP in most cases, a majority (55%) agreed with the statement that BP could be controlled in most patients with only one drug. Although 42% reported that they often had to change drugs because of side effects, only 16% believed that it was time-consuming to find a well-tolerated drug regimen.

CONCLUSIONS

In this setting, primary care physicians' self-reported practices were in good agreement with national guidelines put forth in the late 1990s, and their beliefs were favorable to therapy. Our data point to a need for interventions to emphasize that combination drug therapy is frequently required to achieve BP control, and that more aggressive intervention is often warranted for isolated systolic hypertension.

Does improved access to care affect utilization and costs for patients with chronic conditions?

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a major improvement in access (ie, implementing an open access system) in a large multispecialty medical group during 2000 was associated with changes in utilization or costs for patients with diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), or depression.

STUDY DESIGN

Multilevel regression analysis of health plan administrative data.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Approximately 7000 patients with diabetes, 3800 with CHD, and 6000 with depression who received all of their care in this care system served as the subjects for this study. Utilization and costs between 1999 and 2001 (before and after implementation of open access) were compared for these patients. The main outcome measures were rates of inpatient admissions and various types of outpatient encounters as well as associated costs for these subjects.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2001, total office visit changes were small and varied with condition, but the proportion of these visits made to primary care physicians increased significantly by an absolute 5% to 9% and primary care physician continuity increased for each condition. Urgent care visits also decreased significantly by an absolute 5% to 9%, but there was no change in emergency department visits or hospital admissions. Total costs of care for these patients were much larger than those for the overall population of the medical group, but increased at a similar rate.

CONCLUSION

A major improvement in patient access to primary care clinics was associated with increased use and continuity of primary care for patients with 3 chronic conditions, but did not affect overall resource use.