Clinical Outcomes of Rapid Respiratory Virus Testing in Emergency Departments: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Rapid tests for respiratory viruses, including multiplex panels, are increasingly available in emergency departments (EDs). Their association with patient outcomes remains unclear.

Objective

To determine if ED rapid respiratory virus testing in patients with suspected acute respiratory infection (ARI) was associated with decreased antibiotic use, ancillary tests, ED length of stay, and ED return visits and hospitalization and increased influenza antiviral treatment.

Data Sources

Ovid MEDLINE, Embase (Ovid), Scopus, and Web of Science from 1985 to November 14, 2022.

Study Selection

Randomized clinical trials of patients of any age with ARI in an ED. The primary intervention was rapid viral testing.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses reporting guidelines were followed. Two independent reviewers (T.S. and K.W.) extracted data and assessed risk of bias using the Cochrane Risk of Bias, version 2.0. Estimates were pooled using random-effects models. Quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations framework.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Antibiotic use and secondary outcomes were pooled separately as risk ratios (RRs) and risk difference estimates with 95% CIs.

Results

Of 7157 studies identified, 11 (0.2%; n = 6068 patients) were included in pooled analyses. Routine rapid viral testing was not associated with antibiotic use (RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.93-1.05; high certainty) but was associated with higher use of influenza antivirals (RR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.02-1.75; moderate certainty) and lower use of chest radiography (RR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79-0.98; moderate certainty) and blood tests (RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.69-0.97; moderate certainty). There was no association with urine testing (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.77-1.17; low certainty), ED length of stay (0 hours; 95% CI, -0.17 to 0.16; moderate certainty), return visits (RR, 0.93; 95%, CI 0.79-1.08; moderate certainty) or hospitalization (RR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.95-1.08; high certainty). Adults represented 963 participants (16%). There was no association of viral testing with antibiotic use in any prespecified subgroup by age, test method, publication date, number of viral targets, risk of bias, or industry funding.

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that there are limited benefits of routine viral testing in EDs for patients with ARI. Further studies in adults, especially those with high-risk conditions, are warranted.

COVID-19 Immunologic Antiviral Therapy With Omalizumab (CIAO)-a Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial

Background

Omalizumab is an anti-immunoglobulin E monoclonal antibody used to treat moderate to severe chronic idiopathic urticaria, asthma, and nasal polyps. Recent research suggested that omalizumab may enhance the innate antiviral response and have anti-inflammatory properties.

Objective

We aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of omalizumab in adults hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia.

Methods

This was a phase II randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled trial comparing omalizumab with placebo (in addition to standard of care) in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The primary endpoint was the composite of mechanical ventilation and/or death at day 14. Secondary endpoints included all-cause mortality at day 28, time to clinical improvement, and duration of hospitalization.

Results

Of 41 patients recruited, 40 were randomized (20 received the study drug and 20 placebo). The median age of the patients was 74 years and 55.0% were male. Omalizumab was associated with a 92.6% posterior probability of a reduction in mechanical ventilation and death on day 14 with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.11 (95% credible interval 0.002-2.05). Omalizumab was also associated with a 75.9% posterior probability of reduced all-cause mortality on day 28 with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.49 (95% credible interval, 0.06-3.90). No statistically significant differences were found for the time to clinical improvement and duration of hospitalization. Numerically fewer adverse events were reported in the omalizumab group and there were no drug-related serious adverse events.

Conclusions

These results suggest that omalizumab could prove protective against death and mechanical ventilation in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. This study could also support the development of a phase III trial program investigating the antiviral and anti-inflammatory effect of omalizumab for severe respiratory viral illnesses requiring hospital admission. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT04720612.

Meta-Analysis of Normal Reference Values for Right and Left Ventricular Quantification by Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) reference values are relied upon to accurately diagnose left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) pathologies. To date, reference values have been derived from modest sample sizes with limited patient diversity and attention to 1 but not both commonly used tracing techniques for papillary muscles and trabeculations. We sought to overcome these limitations by meta-analyzing normal reference values for CMR parameters stemming from multiple countries, vendors, analysts, and patient populations.

METHODS

We comprehensively extracted published and unpublished data from studies reporting CMR parameters in healthy adults. A steady-state free-precession short-axis stack at 1.5T or 3T was used to trace either counting the papillary muscles and trabeculations in the LV volume or mass. We used a novel Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis model to derive the pooled lower and upper reference values for each CMR parameter. Our model accounted for the expected differences between tracing techniques by including informative prior distributions from a large external data set.

RESULTS

A total of 254 studies from 25 different countries were systematically reviewed, representing 12 812 healthy adults, of which 52 were meta-analyzed. For LV parameters counting papillary muscles and trabeculations in the LV volume, pooled normative reference ranges in men and women, respectively, were as follows: LV ejection fraction of 52% to 73% and 54% to 75%, LV end-diastolic volume index of 60 to 109 and 56 to 96 mL/m2, LV end-systolic volume index of 18 to 45 and 16 to 38 mL/m2, and LV mass index of 41 to 76 and 33 to 57 g/m2. For LV parameters counting papillary muscles and trabeculations in the LV mass, pooled normative reference ranges in men and women, respectively, were as follows: LV ejection fraction of 57% to 74% and 57% to 75%, LV end-diastolic volume index of 60 to 97 and 55 to 88 mL/m2, LV end-systolic volume index of 18 to 37 and 15 to 34 mL/m2, and LV mass index of 50 to 83 and 38 to 65 g/m2. For RV parameters, pooled normative reference ranges in men and women, respectively, were as follows: RV ejection fraction of 47% to 68% and 49% to 71%, RV end-diastolic volume index of 64 to 115 and 57 to 99 mL/m2, RV end-systolic volume index of 23 to 52 and 18 to 42 mL/m2, and RV mass index of 14 to 29 and 13 to 25 g/m2.

CONCLUSIONS

Our Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis provides normative reference values for CMR parameters of LV and RV size, systolic function, and mass, encompassing both tracing techniques across a diverse multinational sample of healthy men and women.

Correction: Serodiagnosis of Tuberculosis in Asian Elephants (Elephas maximus) in Southern India: A Latent Class Analysis

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049548.].

Diagnostic accuracy of qPCR and microscopy for cutaneous leishmaniasis in rural Ecuador: A Bayesian latent class analysis

BACKGROUND

Clinical and laboratory diagnosis of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is hampered by under-ascertainment of direct microscopy.

METHODS

This study compared the diagnostic accuracy of qPCR on DNA extracted from filter paper to the accuracy of direct smear slide microscopy in participants presenting with a cutaneous lesion suspected of leishmaniasis to 16 rural healthcare centers in the Ecuadorian Amazon and Pacific regions, from January 2019 to June 2021. We used Bayesian latent class analysis to estimate test sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios (LR), and predictive values (PV) with their 95% credible intervals (95%CrI). The impact of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics on predictive values was assessed as a secondary objective.

RESULTS

Of 320 initially included participants, paired valid test results were available and included in the diagnostic accuracy analysis for 129 from the Amazon and 185 from the Pacific region. We estimated sensitivity of 68% (95%CrI 49% to 82%) and 73% (95%CrI 73% to 83%) for qPCR, and 51% (95%CrI 36% to 66%) and 76% (95%CrI 65% to 86%) for microscopy in the Amazon and Pacific region, respectively. In the Amazon, with an estimated disease prevalence among participants of 73%, negative PV for qPCR was 54% (95%CrI 5% to 77%) and 44% (95%CrI 4% to 65%) for microscopy. In the Pacific, (prevalence 88%) the negative PV was 34% (95%CrI 3% to 58%) and 37% (95%CrI 3% to 63%). The addition of qPCR parallel to microscopy in the Amazon increases the observed prevalence from 38% to 64% (+26 (95%CrI 19 to 34) percentage points).

CONCLUSION

The accuracy of either qPCR on DNA extracted from filter paper or microscopy for CL diagnosis as a stand-alone test seems to be unsatisfactory and region-dependent. We recommend further studies to confirm the clinically relevant increment found in the diagnostic yield due to the addition of qPCR.

Diagnostic accuracy of rapid one-step PCR assays for detection of herpes Simplex virus -1 and -2 in cerebrospinal fluid: A systematic Review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Rapid and accurate diagnosis of HSV-1 and -2 (HSV1/2) in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is important for patient management.

OBJECTIVES

Summarize the diagnostic accuracy of commercial rapid sample-to-answer PCR assays (results in <90 minutes, without a separate nucleic acid extraction step) for HSV1/2 detection in CSF.

DATA SOURCES

Four databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus and CENTRAL) and five conference abstract datasets from January 2012 to March 2022.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Diagnostic accuracy studies of FilmArray Meningitis-Encephalitis Panel™ and Simplexa™ HSV 1&2 Direct Kit compared to a PCR reference standard were included. Eligible studies provided sufficient data for the construction of a standard diagnostic accuracy two-by-two table.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with suspected meningitis and/or encephalitis.

ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS

Two investigators independently extracted data, rated risk of bias and assessed quality using QUADAS-2.

METHODS

Accuracy estimates were pooled using Bayesian random effects models.

RESULTS

Thirty-one studies were included (27 FilmArray; 4 Simplexa), comprising 9,924 samples, with 95 HSV-1 and 247 HSV-2 infections. Pooled FilmArray sensitivities were 84.3% (95% credible interval 72.3%-93.0%) and 92.9% (95%CrI, 82.0%-98.5%) for HSV-1 and HSV-2, respectively; specificities were 99.8% (95%CrI, 99.6%-99.9%) and 99.9% (95%CrI, 99.9%-100%). Pooled Simplexa sensitivities were 97.1% (95%CrI, 88.1%-99.6%) and 97.9% (95%CrI, 89.6%-99.9%), respectively; specificities were 98.9% (95%CrI, 96.8%-99.7%) and 98.9% (95%CrI, 97.1%-99.7%). Pooled FilmArray sensitivities favored industry-sponsored studies by 10.0 and 13.0 percentage points for HSV-1 and HSV-2, respectively. Incomplete reporting frequently led to unclear risk of bias. Several FilmArray studies did not fully report true negative data leading to their exclusion.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest Simplexa is accurate for HSV1/2 detection in CSF. Moderate FilmArray sensitivity for HSV-1 suggests additional testing and/or repeat CSF sampling is required for suspected HSV encephalitis when the HSV-1 result is negative. Low prevalence of HSV-1 infections limited summary estimates' precision. Underreporting of covariates limited exploration of heterogeneity.

Bayesian latent class analysis produced diagnostic accuracy estimates that were more interpretable than composite reference standards for extrapulmonary tuberculosis tests

BACKGROUND

Evaluating the accuracy of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (TB) tests is challenging due to lack of a gold standard. Latent class analysis (LCA), a statistical modeling approach, can adjust for reference tests' imperfect accuracies to produce less biased test accuracy estimates than those produced by commonly used methods like composite reference standards (CRSs). Our objective is to illustrate how Bayesian LCA can address the problem of an unavailable gold standard and demonstrate how it compares to using CRSs for extrapulmonary TB tests.

METHODS

We re-analyzed a dataset of presumptive extrapulmonary TB cases in New Delhi, India, for three forms of extrapulmonary TB. Results were available for culture, smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF, and a non-microbiological test, cytopathology/histopathology, or adenosine deaminase (ADA). A diagram was used to define assumed relationships between observed tests and underlying latent variables in the Bayesian LCA with input from an inter-disciplinary team. We compared the results to estimates obtained from a sequence of CRSs defined by increasing numbers of positive reference tests necessary for positive disease status.

RESULTS

Data were available from 298, 388, and 230 individuals with presumptive TB lymphadenitis, meningitis, and pleuritis, respectively. Using Bayesian LCA, estimates were obtained for accuracy of all tests and for extrapulmonary TB prevalence. Xpert sensitivity neared that of culture for TB lymphadenitis and meningitis but was lower for TB pleuritis, and specificities of all microbiological tests approached 100%. Non-microbiological tests' sensitivities were high, but specificities were only moderate, preventing disease rule-in. CRSs' only provided estimates of Xpert and these varied widely per CRS definition. Accuracy of the CRSs also varied by definition, and no CRS was 100% accurate.

CONCLUSION

Unlike CRSs, Bayesian LCA takes into account known information about test performance resulting in accuracy estimates that are easier to interpret. LCA should receive greater consideration for evaluating extrapulmonary TB diagnostic tests.

Antimicrobial Stewardship in Bronchiolitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study of Three PICUs in Canada

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between the implementation of an antimicrobial stewardship program at a local PICU and to determine the association between the presence of an antimicrobial stewardship programs and antimicrobial use across three Canadian PICUs, among critically ill children with bronchiolitis.

DESIGN

A multicenter retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Three Canadian PICUs over two winter seasons.

INTERVENTIONS

An antimicrobial stewardship program was implemented at PICU 1 at the end of season 1.

PATIENTS

Patients less than or equal to 2 years old admitted with bronchiolitis.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We used regression models with an interaction term between site (PICU 1 and PICU 2) and season (1 and 2) as the primary analysis to determine the association between implementation of an antimicrobial stewardship program at PICU 1 and 1) the proportion of antimicrobials discontinued 72 hours after hospital admission (logistic regression), 2) antimicrobial treatment duration (negative binomial regression), and 3) antimicrobial prescriptions within 48 hours of hospital admission (logistic regression). As a secondary analysis, we determined the association between having an antimicrobial stewardship program present and the aforementioned outcomes across the three PICUs. A total of 372 patients were included. During seasons 1 and 2, median age was 2.2 months (interquartile range, 1.2-6.2 mo) and 2.1 months (interquartile range, 1.3-6.8 mo), respectively. Among patients with viral bronchiolitis, implementation of an antimicrobial stewardship program at PICU 1 was associated with increased odds of discontinuing antimicrobials (odds ratio, 25.63; 95% CI, 2.86-326.29), but not with antimicrobial duration (odds ratio, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.31-1.02) or antimicrobial prescriptions (odds ratio, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.10-1.04). The presence of an antimicrobial stewardship program was similarly associated with antimicrobial discontinuation among patients with viral bronchiolitis (odds ratio, 20.79; 95% CI, 2.46-244.92), but not with antimicrobial duration (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.32-1.03) or antimicrobial prescriptions (odds ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.12-1.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Antimicrobial stewardship programs were associated with increased likelihood of discontinuing antimicrobial treatments in the PICU patients with viral bronchiolitis. However, larger studies are needed to further determine the role of an antimicrobial stewardship programs in reducing unnecessary antimicrobial use in this patient population.

Blood Cultures and Molecular Diagnostics in Intensive Care Units to Diagnose Sepsis: A Bayesian Latent Class Model Analysis

Background

Confirmation of sepsis by standard blood cultures (STD) is often inconclusive due to slow growth and low positivity. Molecular diagnostics (MOL) are faster and may have higher positivity, but test performance can be inaccurately estimated if STD methods are used as comparators. Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) can evaluate diagnostic methods when there is no "gold standard." Intensive care unit studies that have used LCMs to combine and compare STD and MOL method performance and estimate the prevalence of sepsis have not been described.

Patients and methods

Results from an ICU sepsis study that used both tests simultaneously were analyzed. Bayesian LCMs combined prior prevalence of sepsis, prior diagnostic characteristics of the two methods, and the study results to estimate the posterior prevalence and diagnostic characteristics. Sensitivity analyses were performed using objective (published studies) and subjective (expert opinion) prior parameters. Positive predictive values (PPVs) of the prevalence of sepsis were estimated for all combinations of test results.

Results

The range of posterior estimates was: sepsis prevalence (0.38-0.88), sensitivities (STD: 0.2-0.35, MOL: 0.56-0.86), and specificities (STD: 0.87-0.99, MOL: 0.72-0.95). The PPV (sepsis) of both tests being positive was (0.72-0.99).

Conclusion

LCMs combined two imperfect methods to estimate prevalence, PPV, and diagnostic characteristics. The posterior estimates (STD sensitivity < MOL and STD specificity > MOL) seem to reflect the clinical experience appropriately. The high PPV when both methods show positive results can be useful for ruling in disease.

How to cite this article

Sampath S, Baby J, Krishna B, Dendukuri N, Thomas T. Blood Cultures and Molecular Diagnostics in Intensive Care Units to Diagnose Sepsis: A Bayesian Latent Class Model Analysis. Indian J Crit Care Med 2021;25(12):1402-1407.

Performance of the McGill Interactive Pediatric OncoGenetic Guidelines for Identifying Cancer Predisposition Syndromes

Importance

Prompt recognition of a child with a cancer predisposition syndrome (CPS) has implications for cancer management, surveillance, genetic counseling, and cascade testing of relatives. Diagnosis of CPS requires practitioner expertise, access to genetic testing, and test result interpretation. This diagnostic process is not accessible in all institutions worldwide, leading to missed CPS diagnoses. Advances in electronic health technology can facilitate CPS risk assessment.

Objective

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of a CPS prediction tool (McGill Interactive Pediatric OncoGenetic Guidelines [MIPOGG]) in identifying children with cancer who have a low or high likelihood of having a CPS.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this international, multicenter diagnostic accuracy study, 1071 pediatric (<19 years of age) oncology patients who had a confirmed CPS (12 oncology referral centers) or who underwent germline DNA sequencing through precision medicine programs (6 centers) from January 1, 2000, to July 31, 2020, were studied.

Exposures

Exposures were MIPOGG application in patients with cancer and a confirmed CPS (diagnosed through routine clinical care; n = 413) in phase 1 and MIPOGG application in patients with cancer who underwent germline DNA sequencing (n = 658) in phase 2. Study phases did not overlap. Data analysts were blinded to genetic test results.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The performance of MIPOGG in CPS recognition was compared with that of routine clinical care, including identifying a CPS earlier than practitioners. The tool's test characteristics were calculated using next-generation germline DNA sequencing as the comparator.

Results

In phase 1, a total of 413 patients with cancer (median age, 3.0 years; range, 0-18 years) and a confirmed CPS were identified. MIPOGG correctly recognized 410 of 412 patients (99.5%) as requiring referral for CPS evaluation at the time of primary cancer diagnosis. Nine patients diagnosed with a CPS by a practitioner after their second malignant tumor were detected by MIPOGG using information available at the time of the first cancer. In phase 2, of 658 children with cancer (median age, 6.6 years; range, 0-18.8 years) who underwent comprehensive germline DNA sequencing, 636 had sufficient information for MIPOGG application. When compared with germline DNA sequencing for CPS detection, the MIPOGG test characteristics for pediatric-onset CPSs were as follows: sensitivity, 90.7%; specificity, 60.5%; positive predictive value, 17.6%; and negative predictive value, 98.6%. Tumor DNA sequencing data confirmed the MIPOGG recommendation for CPS evaluation in 20 of 22 patients with established cancer-CPS associations.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this diagnostic study, MIPOGG exhibited a favorable accuracy profile for CPS screening and reduced time to CPS recognition. These findings suggest that MIPOGG implementation could standardize and rationalize recommendations for CPS evaluation in children with cancer.

Antiviral Use in Canadian Children Hospitalized for Influenza

OBJECTIVES

Antivirals are recommended for children hospitalized with influenza but are underutilized. We describe antiviral prescribing during influenza admissions in Canadian pediatric centers and identify factors associated with antiviral use.

METHODS

We performed active surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations among children ≤16 years old at the 12 Canadian Immunization Monitoring Program Active hospitals, from 2010-2011 to 2018-2019. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with antiviral use.

RESULTS

Among 7545 patients, 57.4% were male; median age was 3 years (interquartile range: 1.1-6.3). Overall, 41.3% received antiviral agents; 72.8% received antibiotics. Antiviral use varied across sites (range, 10.2% to 81.1%) and influenza season (range, 19.9% to 59.6%) and was more frequent in children with ≥1 chronic health condition (52.7% vs 36.7%; P < .001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with antiviral use included older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.04 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-1.05]), more recent season (highest aOR 9.18 [95% CI, 6.70-12.57] for 2018-2019), admission during peak influenza period (aOR 1.37 [95% CI, 1.19-1.58]), availability of local treatment guideline (aOR 1.54 [95% CI, 1.17-2.02]), timing of laboratory confirmation (highest aOR 2.67 [95% CI, 1.97-3.61] for result available before admission), presence of chronic health conditions (highest aOR 4.81 [95% CI, 3.61-6.40] for cancer), radiographically confirmed pneumonia (aOR 1.39 [95% CI, 1.20-1.60]), antibiotic treatment (aOR 1.51 [95% CI, 1.30-1.76]), respiratory support (1.57 [95% CI, 1.19-2.08]), and ICU admission (aOR 3.62 [95% CI, 2.88-4.56]).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza antiviral agents were underused in Canadian pediatric hospitals, including among children with high-risk chronic health conditions. Prescribing varied considerably across sites, increased over time, and was associated with patient and hospital-level characteristics. Multifaceted hospital-based interventions are warranted to strengthen adherence to influenza treatment guidelines and antimicrobial stewardship practices.

Utility of a Cancer Predisposition Screening Tool for Predicting Subsequent Malignant Neoplasms in Childhood Cancer Survivors

PURPOSE

Childhood cancer survivors (CCS) are at risk of developing subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) resulting from exposure to prior therapies. CCS with underlying cancer predisposition syndromes are at additional genetic risk of SMN development. The McGill Interactive Pediatric OncoGenetic Guidelines (MIPOGG) tool identifies children with cancer at increased likelihood of having a cancer predisposition syndrome, guiding clinicians through a series of Yes or No questions that generate a recommendation for or against genetic evaluation. We evaluated MIPOGG's ability to predict SMN development in CCS.

METHODS

Using the provincial cancer registry (Ontario, Canada), and adopting a nested case-control approach, we identified CCS diagnosed and/or treated for a primary malignancy before age 18 years (1986-2015). CCS who developed an SMN (cases) were matched, by primary cancer and year of diagnosis, with CCS who did not develop an SMN (controls) over the same period (1:5 ratio). Potential predictors for SMN development (chemotherapy, radiation, and MIPOGG output) were applied retrospectively using clinical data pertaining to the first malignancy. Conditional logistic regression models estimated hazard ratios and 95% CIs associated with each covariate, alone and in combination, for SMN development.

RESULTS

Of 13,367 children with a primary cancer, 317 (2.4%) developed an SMN and were matched to 1,569 controls. A MIPOGG output recommending evaluation was significantly associated with SMN development (hazard ratio 1.53; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.19) in a multivariable model that included primary cancer therapy exposures. MIPOGG was predictive of SMN development, showing value in nonhematologic malignancies and in CCS not exposed to radiation.

CONCLUSION

MIPOGG has additional value for SMN prediction beyond treatment exposures and may be beneficial in decision making for enhanced individualized SMN surveillance strategies for CCS.

A longitudinal analysis of arterial stiffness and wave reflection in preeclampsia: Identification of changepoints

PURPOSE

Preeclampsia (PrE) is a leading complication of pregnancy characterized by vascular dysfunction. Characterizing the longitudinal changes in vascular function prior to PrE onset is critical to the identification of optimal timepoints for vascular assessment and the development of effective early screening strategies.

METHODS

In this prospective longitudinal study of women with singleton high-risk pregnancies, arterial stiffness and wave reflection parameters were assessed using applanation tonometry at 10-13 weeks' gestation and repeated every 4 weeks throughout pregnancy. Changepoints in carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), carotid-radial PWV (crPWV), augmentation index (AIx), time to wave reflection (T_1R), pulse pressure amplification (PPA), and subendocardial viability ratio (SEVR) were compared between women who did and did not subsequently develop PrE.

RESULTS

A changepoint in cfPWV and crPWV was detected at 14-17 weeks' gestation. cfPWV then increased in women who went on to develop PrE but decreased in women who did not; a 1.2 m/s difference in cfPWV between the groups was observed at 22-25 weeks' gestation. Conversely, crPWV converged in the two groups from a baseline difference of 1.05 m/s (95% credible interval: 0.37, 1.72). Women who subsequently developed PrE demonstrated an increase in AIx at 18-21 weeks' gestation that was not seen in women who did not develop PrE until 30-33 weeks. No differences in T_1R, PPA, or SEVR were observed between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Altered vascular adaptations were detected using measures of arterial stiffness and wave reflection in the early second trimester of pregnant women who developed PrE compared to those who did not. These findings demonstrate the potential clinical utility of arterial stiffness and wave reflection parameters as an early screening tool for PrE, which can be used to inform clinical management of high-risk pregnancies.

Recurrent Traumatic Brain Injury Surveillance Using Administrative Health Data: A Bayesian Latent Class Analysis

Background: The initial injury burden from incident TBI is significantly amplified by recurrent TBI (rTBI). Unfortunately, research assessing the accuracy to conduct rTBI surveillance is not available. Accurate surveillance information on recurrent injuries is needed to justify the allocation of resources to rTBI prevention and to conduct high quality epidemiological research on interventions that mitigate this injury burden. This study evaluates the accuracy of administrative health data (AHD) surveillance case definitions for rTBI and estimates the 1-year rTBI incidence adjusted for measurement error. Methods: A 25% random sample of AHD for Montreal residents from 2000 to 2014 was used in this study. Four widely used TBI surveillance case definitions, based on the International Classification of Disease and on radiological exams of the head, were applied to ascertain suspected rTBI cases. Bayesian latent class models were used to estimate the accuracy of each case definition and the 1-year rTBI measurement-error-adjusted incidence without relying on a gold standard rTBI definition that does not exist, across children (<18 years), adults (18-64 years), and elderly (> =65 years). Results: The adjusted 1-year rTBI incidence was 4.48 (95% CrI 3.42, 6.20) per 100 person-years across all age groups, as opposed to a crude estimate of 8.03 (95% CrI 7.86, 8.21) per 100 person-years. Patients with higher severity index TBI had a significantly higher incidence of rTBI compared to patients with lower severity index TBI. The case definition that identified patients undergoing a radiological examination of the head in the context of any traumatic injury was the most sensitive across children [0.46 (95% CrI 0.33, 0.61)], adults [0.79 (95% CrI 0.64, 0.94)], and elderly [0.87 (95% CrI 0.78, 0.95)]. The most specific case definition was the discharge abstract database in children [0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00)], and emergency room visits claims in adults/elderly [0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 0.99)]. Median time to rTBI was the shortest in adults (75 days) and the longest in children (120 days). Conclusion: Conducting accurate surveillance and valid epidemiological research for rTBI using AHD is feasible when measurement error is accounted for.

COVID-19 pandemic and coronary angiography for ST-elevation myocardial infarction, use of mechanical support and mechanical complications in Canada; a Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology national survey

Background

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic first wave, reductions in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) invasive care, ranging from 23% to 76%, have been reported from various countries. Whether this change had any impact on coronary angiography (CA) volume or on mechanical support device use for STEMI and post-STEMI mechanical complications in Canada is unknown.

Methods

We administered a Canada-wide survey to all cardiac catheterization laboratory directors, seeking the volume of CA use for STEMI performed during the period from March 1 2020 to May 31, 2020 (pandemic period), and during 2 control periods (March 1, 2019 to May 31, 2019 and March 1, 2018 to May 31, 2018). The number of left ventricular support devices used, as well as the number of ventricular septal defects and papillary muscle rupture cases diagnosed, was also recorded. We also assessed whether the number of COVID-19 cases recorded in each province was associated with STEMI-related CA volume.

Results

A total of 41 of 42 Canadian catheterization laboratories (98%) provided data. There was a modest but statistically significant 16% reduction (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval 0.80-0.87) in CA for STEMI during the first wave of the pandemic, compared to control periods. IRR was not associated with provincial COVID-19 caseload. We observed a 26% reduction (IRR 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.61-0.89) in the use of intra-aortic balloon pump use for STEMI. Use of an Impella pump and mechanical complications from STEMI were exceedingly rare.

Conclusions

We observed a modest 16% decrease in use of CA for STEMI during the pandemic first wave in Canada, lower than the level reported in other countries. Provincial COVID-19 caseload did not influence this reduction.

Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert Ultra assays for screening for pulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in adults, irrespective of signs or symptoms

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a leading cause of infectious disease-related death and is one of the top 10 causes of death worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the use of specific rapid molecular tests, including Xpert MTB/RIF or Xpert Ultra, as initial diagnostic tests for the detection of tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in people with signs and symptoms of tuberculosis. However, the WHO estimates that nearly one-third of all active tuberculosis cases go undiagnosed and unreported. We were interested in whether a single test, Xpert MTB/RIF or Xpert Ultra, could be useful as a screening test to close this diagnostic gap and improve tuberculosis case detection.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert Ultra for screening for pulmonary tuberculosis in adults, irrespective of signs or symptoms of pulmonary tuberculosis in high-risk groups and in the general population. Screening "irrespective of signs or symptoms" refers to screening of people who have not been assessed for the presence of tuberculosis symptoms (e.g. cough). To estimate the accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert Ultra for detecting rifampicin resistance in adults screened for tuberculosis, irrespective of signs and symptoms of pulmonary tuberculosis in high-risk groups and in the general population.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched 12 databases including the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, MEDLINE and Embase, on 19 March 2020 without language restrictions. We also reviewed reference lists of included articles and related Cochrane Reviews, and contacted researchers in the field to identify additional studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Cross-sectional and cohort studies in which adults (15 years and older) in high-risk groups (e.g. people living with HIV, household contacts of people with tuberculosis) or in the general population were screened for pulmonary tuberculosis using Xpert MTB/RIF or Xpert Ultra. For tuberculosis detection, the reference standard was culture. For rifampicin resistance detection, the reference standards were culture-based drug susceptibility testing and line probe assays.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data using a standardized form and assessed risk of bias and applicability using QUADAS-2. We used a bivariate random-effects model to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) separately for tuberculosis detection and rifampicin resistance detection. We estimated all models using a Bayesian approach. For tuberculosis detection, we first estimated screening accuracy in distinct high-risk groups, including people living with HIV, household contacts, people residing in prisons, and miners, and then in several high-risk groups combined.

MAIN RESULTS

We included a total of 21 studies: 18 studies (13,114 participants) evaluated Xpert MTB/RIF as a screening test for pulmonary tuberculosis and one study (571 participants) evaluated both Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert Ultra. Three studies (159 participants) evaluated Xpert MTB/RIF for rifampicin resistance. Fifteen studies (75%) were conducted in high tuberculosis burden and 16 (80%) in high TB/HIV-burden countries. We judged most studies to have low risk of bias in all four QUADAS-2 domains and low concern for applicability. Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert Ultra as screening tests for pulmonary tuberculosis In people living with HIV (12 studies), Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% CrI) were 61.8% (53.6 to 69.9) (602 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) and 98.8% (98.0 to 99.4) (4173 participants; high-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 50 have tuberculosis on culture, 40 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-positive; of these, 9 (22%) would not have tuberculosis (false-positives); and 960 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-negative; of these, 19 (2%) would have tuberculosis (false-negatives). In people living with HIV (1 study), Xpert Ultra sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) were 69% (57 to 80) (68 participants; very low-certainty evidence) and 98% (97 to 99) (503 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 50 have tuberculosis on culture, 53 would be Xpert Ultra-positive; of these, 19 (36%) would not have tuberculosis (false-positives); and 947 would be Xpert Ultra-negative; of these, 16 (2%) would have tuberculosis (false-negatives). In non-hospitalized people in high-risk groups (5 studies), Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity and specificity were 69.4% (47.7 to 86.2) (337 participants, low-certainty evidence) and 98.8% (97.2 to 99.5) (8619 participants, moderate-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 10 have tuberculosis on culture, 19 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-positive; of these, 12 (63%) would not have tuberculosis (false-positives); and 981 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-negative; of these, 3 (0%) would have tuberculosis (false-negatives). We did not identify any studies using Xpert MTB/RIF or Xpert Ultra for screening in the general population. Xpert MTB/RIF as a screening test for rifampicin resistance Xpert MTB/RIF sensitivity was 81% and 100% (2 studies, 20 participants; very low-certainty evidence), and specificity was 94% to 100%, (3 studies, 139 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Of the high-risks groups evaluated, Xpert MTB/RIF applied as a screening test was accurate for tuberculosis in high tuberculosis burden settings. Sensitivity and specificity were similar in people living with HIV and non-hospitalized people in high-risk groups. In people living with HIV, Xpert Ultra sensitivity was slightly higher than that of Xpert MTB/RIF and specificity similar. As there was only one study of Xpert Ultra in this analysis, results should be interpreted with caution. There were no studies that evaluated the tests in people with diabetes mellitus and other groups considered at high-risk for tuberculosis, or in the general population.

Comparison of Saliva and Nasopharyngeal Swab Nucleic Acid Amplification Testing for Detection of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Nasopharyngeal swab nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) is the noninvasive criterion standard for diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it requires trained personnel, limiting its availability. Saliva NAAT represents an attractive alternative, but its diagnostic performance is unclear.

Objective

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of saliva NAAT for COVID-19.

Data Sources

In this systematic review, a search of the MEDLINE and medRxiv databases was conducted on August 29, 2020, to find studies of diagnostic test accuracy. The final meta-analysis was performed on November 17, 2020.

Study Selection

Studies needed to provide enough data to measure salivary NAAT sensitivity and specificity compared with imperfect nasopharyngeal swab NAAT as a reference test. An imperfect reference test does not perfectly reflect the truth (ie, it can give false results). Studies were excluded if the sample contained fewer than 20 participants or was neither random nor consecutive. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 tool was used to assess the risk of bias.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses reporting guideline was followed for the systematic review, with multiple authors involved at each stage of the review. To account for the imperfect reference test sensitivity, we used a bayesian latent class bivariate model for the meta-analysis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was pooled sensitivity and specificity. Two secondary analyses were performed: one restricted to peer-reviewed studies, and a post hoc analysis limited to ambulatory settings.

Results

The search strategy yielded 385 references, and 16 unique studies were identified for quantitative synthesis. Eight peer-reviewed studies and 8 preprints were included in the meta-analyses (5922 unique patients). There was significant variability in patient selection, study design, and stage of illness at which patients were enrolled. Fifteen studies included ambulatory patients, and 9 exclusively enrolled from an outpatient population with mild or no symptoms. In the primary analysis, the saliva NAAT pooled sensitivity was 83.2% (95% credible interval [CrI], 74.7%-91.4%) and the pooled specificity was 99.2% (95% CrI, 98.2%-99.8%). The nasopharyngeal swab NAAT had a sensitivity of 84.8% (95% CrI, 76.8%-92.4%) and a specificity of 98.9% (95% CrI, 97.4%-99.8%). Results were similar in secondary analyses.

Conclusions and Relevance

These results suggest that saliva NAAT diagnostic accuracy is similar to that of nasopharyngeal swab NAAT, especially in the ambulatory setting. These findings support larger-scale research on the use of saliva NAAT as an alternative to nasopharyngeal swabs.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of refractometry for diagnosis of inadequate transfer of passive immunity in dairy calves: Quantifying how accuracy varies with threshold using a Bayesian approach

Inadequate transfer of passive immunity (TPI) is associated with increased risk for calfhood disease and increased risk of mortality and morbidity. Accurately diagnosing calves and herds with inadequate TPI is of primary importance and brix (BRIX) or classical refractometer (REF) devices are more practical for this purpose than measuring the serum immunoglobulin G concentration in neonatal calves. We previously reported a systematic review and meta-analysis for quantifying the pooled accuracy of BRIX and REF for detecting calves with serum IgG < 10 g/L noting that sparse data were available especially because studies did not report the same thresholds. We updated the previous systematic review using different methods that accounted for the test results distribution in calves with or without inadequate TPI. With this approach, all reported cut-offs for a specific study are used in that Bayesian approach that quantifies how accuracy varied among all reported thresholds. Five new manuscripts were included, which represented 4 new studies since the initial study was performed. A total of 11 REF and 9 BRIX studies were available. The meta-analytic methods allowed reporting variation of the true and false positive rate across and among all reported cut-offs. Pooled points estimates (95 % Bayesian credible intervals) for sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of REF < 5.5 g/L were 86.1 % (68.5-97.9%) and 76.2 % (65.9-88.4%) whereas BRIX < 8.4 % was associated with Se of 91.6 % (77.2-99.5%) and Sp of 88.2 % (65.4-99.8%). Interestingly, the accuracy (Se + Sp-1) was generally higher for BRIX than for REF at the reported cut-offs. Besides the benefit of providing pooled estimates for all reported and unreported BRIX and REF thresholds, the general framework used in this study could potentially be used in many veterinary diagnostic tests studies that reported multiple thresholds accounting for potentially different tests distributions in population with and without the target condition.

Xpert Ultra versus Xpert MTB/RIF for pulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in adults with presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra) are World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended rapid tests that simultaneously detect tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in people with signs and symptoms of tuberculosis. This review builds on our recent extensive Cochrane Review of Xpert MTB/RIF accuracy.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the diagnostic accuracy of Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF for the detection of pulmonary tuberculosis and detection of rifampicin resistance in adults with presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis. For pulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance, we also investigated potential sources of heterogeneity. We also summarized the frequency of Xpert Ultra trace-positive results, and estimated the accuracy of Xpert Ultra after repeat testing in those with trace-positive results.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index, Web of Science, LILACS, Scopus, the WHO ICTRP, the ISRCTN registry, and ProQuest to 28 January 2020 with no language restriction.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included diagnostic accuracy studies using respiratory specimens in adults with presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis that directly compared the index tests. For pulmonary tuberculosis detection, the reference standards were culture and a composite reference standard. For rifampicin resistance, the reference standards were culture-based drug susceptibility testing and line probe assays.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data using a standardized form, including data by smear and HIV status. We assessed risk of bias using QUADAS-2 and QUADAS-C. We performed meta-analyses comparing pooled sensitivities and specificities, separately for pulmonary tuberculosis detection and rifampicin resistance detection, and separately by reference standard. Most analyses used a bivariate random-effects model. For tuberculosis detection, we estimated accuracy in studies in participants who were not selected based on prior microscopy testing or history of tuberculosis. We performed subgroup analyses by smear status, HIV status, and history of tuberculosis. We summarized Xpert Ultra trace results.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified nine studies (3500 participants): seven had unselected participants (2834 participants). All compared Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF for pulmonary tuberculosis detection; seven studies used a paired comparative accuracy design, and two studies used a randomized design. Five studies compared Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF for rifampicin resistance detection; four studies used a paired design, and one study used a randomized design. Of the nine included studies, seven (78%) were mainly or exclusively in high tuberculosis burden countries. For pulmonary tuberculosis detection, most studies had low risk of bias in all domains. Pulmonary tuberculosis detection Xpert Ultra pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% credible interval) against culture were 90.9% (86.2 to 94.7) and 95.6% (93.0 to 97.4) (7 studies, 2834 participants; high-certainty evidence) versus Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity and specificity of 84.7% (78.6 to 89.9) and 98.4% (97.0 to 99.3) (7 studies, 2835 participants; high-certainty evidence). The difference in the accuracy of Xpert Ultra minus Xpert MTB/RIF was estimated at 6.3% (0.1 to 12.8) for sensitivity and -2.7% (-5.7 to -0.5) for specificity. If the point estimates for Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF are applied to a hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients, where 10% of those presenting with symptoms have pulmonary tuberculosis, Xpert Ultra will miss 9 cases, and Xpert MTB/RIF will miss 15 cases. The number of people wrongly diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis would be 40 with Xpert Ultra and 14 with Xpert MTB/RIF. In smear-negative, culture-positive participants, pooled sensitivity was 77.5% (67.6 to 85.6) for Xpert Ultra versus 60.6% (48.4 to 71.7) for Xpert MTB/RIF; pooled specificity was 95.8% (92.9 to 97.7) for Xpert Ultra versus 98.8% (97.7 to 99.5) for Xpert MTB/RIF (6 studies). In people living with HIV, pooled sensitivity was 87.6% (75.4 to 94.1) for Xpert Ultra versus 74.9% (58.7 to 86.2) for Xpert MTB/RIF; pooled specificity was 92.8% (82.3 to 97.0) for Xpert Ultra versus 99.7% (98.6 to 100.0) for Xpert MTB/RIF (3 studies). In participants with a history of tuberculosis, pooled sensitivity was 84.2% (72.5 to 91.7) for Xpert Ultra versus 81.8% (68.7 to 90.0) for Xpert MTB/RIF; pooled specificity was 88.2% (70.5 to 96.6) for Xpert Ultra versus 97.4% (91.7 to 99.5) for Xpert MTB/RIF (4 studies). The proportion of Ultra trace-positive results ranged from 3.0% to 30.4%. Data were insufficient to estimate the accuracy of Xpert Ultra repeat testing in individuals with initial trace-positive results. Rifampicin resistance detection Pooled sensitivity and specificity were 94.9% (88.9 to 97.9) and 99.1% (97.7 to 99.8) (5 studies, 921 participants; high-certainty evidence) for Xpert Ultra versus 95.3% (90.0 to 98.1) and 98.8% (97.2 to 99.6) (5 studies, 930 participants; high-certainty evidence) for Xpert MTB/RIF. The difference in the accuracy of Xpert Ultra minus Xpert MTB/RIF was estimated at -0.3% (-6.9 to 5.7) for sensitivity and 0.3% (-1.2 to 2.0) for specificity. If the point estimates for Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF are applied to a hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients, where 10% of those presenting with symptoms have rifampicin resistance, Xpert Ultra will miss 5 cases, and Xpert MTB/RIF will miss 5 cases. The number of people wrongly diagnosed with rifampicin resistance would be 8 with Xpert Ultra and 11 with Xpert MTB/RIF. We identified a higher number of rifampicin resistance indeterminate results with Xpert Ultra, pooled proportion 7.6% (2.4 to 21.0) compared to Xpert MTB/RIF pooled proportion 0.8% (0.2 to 2.4). The estimated difference in the pooled proportion of indeterminate rifampicin resistance results for Xpert Ultra versus Xpert MTB/RIF was 6.7% (1.4 to 20.1).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Xpert Ultra has higher sensitivity and lower specificity than Xpert MTB/RIF for pulmonary tuberculosis, especially in smear-negative participants and people living with HIV. Xpert Ultra specificity was lower than that of Xpert MTB/RIF in participants with a history of tuberculosis. The sensitivity and specificity trade-off would be expected to vary by setting. For detection of rifampicin resistance, Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF had similar sensitivity and specificity. Ultra trace-positive results were common. Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF provide accurate results and can allow rapid initiation of treatment for rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF assays for extrapulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in adults

BACKGROUND

Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra) and Xpert MTB/RIF are World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended rapid nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) widely used for simultaneous detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex and rifampicin resistance in sputum. To extend our previous review on extrapulmonary tuberculosis (Kohli 2018), we performed this update to inform updated WHO policy (WHO Consolidated Guidelines (Module 3) 2020).

OBJECTIVES

To estimate diagnostic accuracy of Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF for extrapulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in adults with presumptive extrapulmonary tuberculosis.

SEARCH METHODS

Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index, Web of Science, Latin American Caribbean Health Sciences Literature, Scopus, ClinicalTrials.gov, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Registry, and ProQuest, 2 August 2019 and 28 January 2020 (Xpert Ultra studies), without language restriction.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Cross-sectional and cohort studies using non-respiratory specimens. Forms of extrapulmonary tuberculosis: tuberculous meningitis and pleural, lymph node, bone or joint, genitourinary, peritoneal, pericardial, disseminated tuberculosis. Reference standards were culture and a study-defined composite reference standard (tuberculosis detection); phenotypic drug susceptibility testing and line probe assays (rifampicin resistance detection).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias and applicability using QUADAS-2. For tuberculosis detection, we performed separate analyses by specimen type and reference standard using the bivariate model to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). We applied a latent class meta-analysis model to three forms of extrapulmonary tuberculosis. We assessed certainty of evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

69 studies: 67 evaluated Xpert MTB/RIF and 11 evaluated Xpert Ultra, of which nine evaluated both tests. Most studies were conducted in China, India, South Africa, and Uganda. Overall, risk of bias was low for patient selection, index test, and flow and timing domains, and low (49%) or unclear (43%) for the reference standard domain. Applicability for the patient selection domain was unclear for most studies because we were unsure of the clinical settings. Cerebrospinal fluid Xpert Ultra (6 studies) Xpert Ultra pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% CrI) against culture were 89.4% (79.1 to 95.6) (89 participants; low-certainty evidence) and 91.2% (83.2 to 95.7) (386 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 100 have tuberculous meningitis, 168 would be Xpert Ultra-positive: of these, 79 (47%) would not have tuberculosis (false-positives) and 832 would be Xpert Ultra-negative: of these, 11 (1%) would have tuberculosis (false-negatives). Xpert MTB/RIF (30 studies) Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity and specificity against culture were 71.1% (62.8 to 79.1) (571 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) and 96.9% (95.4 to 98.0) (2824 participants; high-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 100 have tuberculous meningitis, 99 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-positive: of these, 28 (28%) would not have tuberculosis; and 901 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-negative: of these, 29 (3%) would have tuberculosis. Pleural fluid Xpert Ultra (4 studies) Xpert Ultra pooled sensitivity and specificity against culture were 75.0% (58.0 to 86.4) (158 participants; very low-certainty evidence) and 87.0% (63.1 to 97.9) (240 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 100 have pleural tuberculosis, 192 would be Xpert Ultra-positive: of these, 117 (61%) would not have tuberculosis; and 808 would be Xpert Ultra-negative: of these, 25 (3%) would have tuberculosis. Xpert MTB/RIF (25 studies) Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity and specificity against culture were 49.5% (39.8 to 59.9) (644 participants; low-certainty evidence) and 98.9% (97.6 to 99.7) (2421 participants; high-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 100 have pleural tuberculosis, 60 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-positive: of these, 10 (17%) would not have tuberculosis; and 940 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-negative: of these, 50 (5%) would have tuberculosis. Lymph node aspirate Xpert Ultra (1 study) Xpert Ultra sensitivity and specificity (95% confidence interval) against composite reference standard were 70% (51 to 85) (30 participants; very low-certainty evidence) and 100% (92 to 100) (43 participants; low-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 100 have lymph node tuberculosis, 70 would be Xpert Ultra-positive and 0 (0%) would not have tuberculosis; 930 would be Xpert Ultra-negative and 30 (3%) would have tuberculosis. Xpert MTB/RIF (4 studies) Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity and specificity against composite reference standard were 81.6% (61.9 to 93.3) (377 participants; low-certainty evidence) and 96.4% (91.3 to 98.6) (302 participants; low-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 100 have lymph node tuberculosis, 118 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-positive and 37 (31%) would not have tuberculosis; 882 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-negative and 19 (2%) would have tuberculosis. In lymph node aspirate, Xpert MTB/RIF pooled specificity against culture was 86.2% (78.0 to 92.3), lower than that against a composite reference standard. Using the latent class model, Xpert MTB/RIF pooled specificity was 99.5% (99.1 to 99.7), similar to that observed with a composite reference standard. Rifampicin resistance Xpert Ultra (4 studies) Xpert Ultra pooled sensitivity and specificity were 100.0% (95.1 to 100.0), (24 participants; low-certainty evidence) and 100.0% (99.0 to 100.0) (105 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 100 have rifampicin resistance, 100 would be Xpert Ultra-positive (resistant): of these, zero (0%) would not have rifampicin resistance; and 900 would be Xpert Ultra-negative (susceptible): of these, zero (0%) would have rifampicin resistance. Xpert MTB/RIF (19 studies) Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity and specificity were 96.5% (91.9 to 98.8) (148 participants; high-certainty evidence) and 99.1% (98.0 to 99.7) (822 participants; high-certainty evidence). Of 1000 people where 100 have rifampicin resistance, 105 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-positive (resistant): of these, 8 (8%) would not have rifampicin resistance; and 895 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-negative (susceptible): of these, 3 (0.3%) would have rifampicin resistance.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF may be helpful in diagnosing extrapulmonary tuberculosis. Sensitivity varies across different extrapulmonary specimens: while for most specimens specificity is high, the tests rarely yield a positive result for people without tuberculosis. For tuberculous meningitis, Xpert Ultra had higher sensitivity and lower specificity than Xpert MTB/RIF against culture. Xpert Ultra and Xpert MTB/RIF had similar sensitivity and specificity for rifampicin resistance. Future research should acknowledge the concern associated with culture as a reference standard in paucibacillary specimens and consider ways to address this limitation.

Evaluation of LAMP for detection of Shigella from stool samples in children

Background

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for the detection of Shigella from stool samples from children.

Methods

Consecutive stool samples from children aged <13 years old who presented with acute watery diarrhoea or dysentery to the Department of Paediatrics were collected and processed in the Department of Microbiology. All the stool samples were subjected to culture, conventional PCR and LAMP. Genomic sequencing was performed for samples that were positive by LAMP but negative by both culture and conventional PCR. The LAMP results were compared to those from culture and to a composite reference standard based on culture and conventional PCR.

Results

Amongst the 374 stool samples tested, 291 samples were positive by LAMP and 213 were positive by the composite reference standard. The sensitivity of LAMP was 100 % (98.3–100 %) and its specificity was 51.6 % (43.6–59.5 %) with a disease prevalence of 57 %. The sensitivity and specificity of LAMP improved to 99.3 % (94.2–100) and 98.2 % (94.5–99.9), respectively, using latent class analysis, while assuming that genomic sequencing has perfect specificity.

Discussion

The authors have standardized the LAMP procedure for direct application to clinical stool samples. LAMP is a sensitive and specific method for the diagnosis of Shigella from stool samples of children as compared to both culture and conventional PCR.

Suboptimal treatment response to anti-IL-5 monoclonal antibodies in severe eosinophilic asthmatics with airway autoimmune phenomena

BACKGROUND

In clinical trials, the two anti-interleukin (IL)-5 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs: mepolizumab and reslizumab) approved to treat severe eosinophilic asthma reduce exacerbations by ∼50-60%.

OBJECTIVE

To observe response to anti-IL-5 mAbs in a real-life clinical setting, and to evaluate predictors of suboptimal response.

METHODS

In four Canadian academic centres, predefined clinical end-points in 250 carefully characterised moderate-to-severe asthmatic patients were collected prospectively to assess response to the two anti-IL-5 mAbs. Suboptimal response was determined based on failure to reduce maintenance corticosteroid (MCS) or asthma symptoms scores (Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ)) or exacerbations, in addition to persistence of sputum/blood eosinophils. Worsening in suboptimal responders was assessed based on reduced lung function by 25% or increase in MCS/ACQ. A representative subset of 39 patients was evaluated for inflammatory mediators, autoantibodies and complement activation in sputum (by ELISA) and for immune-complex deposition by immunostaining formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded sputum plugs.

RESULTS

Suboptimal responses were observed in 42.8% (107 out of 250) patients treated with either mepolizumab or reslizumab. Daily prednisone requirement, sinus disease and late-onset asthma diagnoses were the strongest predictors of suboptimal response. Asthma worsened in 13.6% (34 out of 250) of these patients. The majority (79%) of them were prednisone-dependent. Presence of sputum anti-eosinophil peroxidase immunoglobulin (Ig)G was a predictor of suboptimal response to an anti-IL-5 mAb. An increase in sputum C3c (marker of complement activation) and deposition of C1q-bound/IL-5-bound IgG were observed in the sputa of those patients who worsened on therapy, suggesting an underlying autoimmune-mediated pathology.

CONCLUSION

A significant number of patients who meet currently approved indications for anti-IL5 mAbs show suboptimal response to them in real-life clinical practice, particularly if they are on high doses of prednisone. Monitoring blood eosinophil count is not helpful to identify these patients. The concern of worsening of symptoms associated with immune-complex mediated complement activation in a small proportion of these patients highlights the relevance of recognising airway autoimmune phenomena and this requires further evaluation.

Clostridium difficile: Investigating Transmission Patterns Between Infected and Colonized Patients Using Whole Genome Sequencing

Background

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) studies can enhance our understanding of the role of patients with asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization in transmission.

Methods

Isolates obtained from patients with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and colonization identified in a study conducted during 2006-2007 at 6 Canadian hospitals underwent typing by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, multilocus sequence typing, and WGS. Isolates from incident CDI cases not in the initial study were also sequenced where possible. Ward movement and typing data were combined to identify plausible donors for each CDI case, as defined by shared time and space within predefined limits. Proportions of plausible donors for CDI cases that were colonized, infected, or both were examined.

Results

Five hundred fifty-four isolates were sequenced successfully, 353 from colonized patients and 201 from CDI cases. The NAP1/027/ST1 strain was the most common strain, found in 124 (62%) of infected and 92 (26%) of colonized patients. A donor with a plausible ward link was found for 81 CDI cases (40%) using WGS with a threshold of ≤2 single nucleotide polymorphisms to determine relatedness. Sixty-five (32%) CDI cases could be linked to both infected and colonized donors. Exclusive linkages to infected and colonized donors were found for 28 (14%) and 12 (6%) CDI cases, respectively.

Conclusions

Colonized patients contribute to transmission, but CDI cases are more likely linked to other infected patients than colonized patients in this cohort with high rates of the NAP1/027/ST1 strain, highlighting the importance of local prevalence of virulent strains in determining transmission dynamics.

Immediate vs Delayed Stenting in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Rationale and Design of the International PRIMACY Bayesian Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Primary percutaneous coronary intervention is used to restore blood flow in the infarct-related coronary artery, followed by immediate stenting to prevent reocclusion. Stents implanted in thrombus-laden arteries cause distal embolization, which paradoxically impairs myocardial reperfusion and ventricular function. Whether a strategy of delayed stenting improves outcomes in patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is uncertain.

METHODS

The Primary Reperfusion Secondary Stenting (PRIMACY) is a Bayesian prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded end point trial in which delayed vs immediate stenting in patients with STEMI were compared for prevention of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, heart failure, or unplanned target vessel revascularization at 9 months. All participants were immediately reperfused, but those assigned to the delayed arm underwent stenting after an interval of 24 to 48 hours. This interval was bridged with antithrombin therapy to reduce thrombus burden. In the principal Bayesian hierarchical random effects analysis, data from exchangeable trials will be combined into a study prior and updated with PRIMACY into a posterior probability of efficacy.

RESULTS

A total of 305 participants were randomized across 15 centres in France and Canada between April 2014 and September 2017. At baseline, the median age of participants was 59 years, 81% were male, and 3% had a history of percutaneous coronary intervention. Results from PRIMACY will be updated from the patient-level data of 1568 participants enrolled in the Deferred Stent Trial in STEMI (DEFER; United Kingdom), Minimalist Immediate Mechanical Intervention (MIMI; France), Danish Trial in Acute Myocardial Infarction-3 (DANAMI-3; Denmark), and Impact of Immediate Stent Implantation Versus Deferred Stent Implantation on Infarct Size and Microvascular Perfusion in Patients With ST Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (INNOVATION, South Korea) trials.

CONCLUSIONS

We expect to clarify whether delayed stenting can safely reduce the occurrence of adverse cardiovascular end points compared with immediate stenting in patients with STEMI.

Impact of decreasing cerebrospinal fluid enterovirus PCR turnaround time on costs and management of children with suspected enterovirus meningitis

To estimate the impact of implementing in-hospital enterovirus (EV) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) with same-day turn-around-time (TAT) on length-of-stay (LOS), antibiotic use and on cost per patient with suspected EV meningitis, compared with testing at an outside reference laboratory. A model-based analysis using a retrospective cohort of all hospitalized children with CSF EV PCR testing done between November 2013 and 2017. The primary outcome measured was the potential date of discharge if the EV PCR result had been available on the same day. Patients with positive EV PCR were considered for potential earlier discharge once clinically stable with no reason for hospitalization other than intravenous antibiotics. Descriptive statistics and cost-sensitivity analyses were performed. CSF EV PCR testing was done on 153 patients, of which 44 (29%) had a positive result. Median test TAT was 5.3 days (IQR 3.9–7.6). Median hospital LOS was 5 days (IQR 3–12). Most (86%) patients received intravenous antibiotics with mean duration of 5.72 ± 6.51 days. No patients with positive EV PCR had a serious bacterial infection. We found that same-day test TAT would reduce LOS and duration of intravenous antibiotics by 0.50 days (95%CI 0.33–0.68) and 0.67 days (95%CI 0.42–0.91), respectively. Same-day test TAT was associated with a cost reduction of 342.83CAD (95%CI 178.14–517.00) per patient with suspected EV meningitis. Compared with sending specimens to a reference laboratory, performing CSF EV PCR in-hospital with same-day TAT was associated with decreased LOS, antibiotic therapy, and cost per patient.

Time-Series Analysis of Health Care-Associated Infections in a New Hospital With All Private Rooms

IMPORTANCE

Health care-associated infections are often caused by multidrug-resistant organisms and substantially factor into hospital costs and avoidable iatrogenic harm. Although it is recommended that new facilities be built with single-room, low-acuity beds, this process is costly and evidence of reductions in health care-associated infections is weak.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether single-patient rooms are associated with decreased rates of common multidrug-resistant organism transmissions and health care-associated infections.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A time-series analysis comparing institution-level rates of new multidrug-resistant organism colonization and health care-associated infections before (January 1, 2013-March 31, 2015) and after (April 1, 2015-March 31, 2018) the move to the hospital with 100% single-patient rooms. In the largest hospital move in Canadian history, inpatients in an older, tertiary care, 417-bed hospital in Montréal, Canada, that consisted of mainly mixed 3- and 4-person ward-type rooms were moved to a new 350-bed facility with all private rooms.

EXPOSURES

A synchronized move of all patients on April 26, 2015, to a new hospital with 100% single-patient rooms equipped with individual toilets and showers and easy access to sinks for hand washing.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Rates of nosocomial vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization, VRE and MRSA infection, and Clostridioides difficile (formerly known as Clostridium difficile) infection (CDI) per 10 000 patient-days.

RESULTS

Compared with the 27 months before, during the 36 months after the hospital move, an immediate and sustained reduction in nosocomial VRE colonization (from 766 to 209 colonizations; incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.25; 95% CI, 0.19-0.34) and MRSA colonization (from 129 to 112 colonizations; IRR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.33-0.96) was noted, as well as VRE infection (from 55 to 14 infections; IRR, 0.30, 95% CI, 0.12-0.75). Rates of CDI (from 236 to 223 infections; IRR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.51-1.76) and MRSA infection (from 27 to 37 infections; IRR, 0.89, 95% CI, 0.34-2.29) did not decrease.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

The move to a new hospital with exclusively single-patient rooms appeared to be associated with a sustained decrease in the rates of new MRSA and VRE colonization and VRE infection; however, the move was not associated with a reduction in CDI or MRSA infection. These findings may have important implications for the role of hospital construction in facilitating infection control.

Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan assay for detecting active tuberculosis in people living with HIV

BACKGROUND

The lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LF-LAM) assay Alere Determine™ TB LAM Ag is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to help detect active tuberculosis in HIV-positive people with severe HIV disease. This review update asks the question, "does new evidence justify the use of LF-LAM in a broader group of people?", and is part of the WHO process for updating guidance on the use of LF-LAM.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the accuracy of LF-LAM for the diagnosis of active tuberculosis among HIV-positive adults with signs and symptoms of tuberculosis (symptomatic participants) and among HIV-positive adults irrespective of signs and symptoms of tuberculosis (unselected participants not assessed for tuberculosis signs and symptoms).The proposed role for LF-LAM is as an add on to clinical judgement and with other tests to assist in diagnosing tuberculosis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register; MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index, Web of Science, Latin American Caribbean Health Sciences Literature, Scopus, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Registry, and ProQuest, without language restriction to 11 May 2018.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized trials, cross-sectional, and observational cohort studies that evaluated LF-LAM for active tuberculosis (pulmonary and extrapulmonary) in HIV-positive adults. We included studies that used the manufacturer's recommended threshold for test positivity, either the updated reference card with four bands (grade 1 of 4) or the corresponding prior reference card grade with five bands (grade 2 of 5). The reference standard was culture or nucleic acid amplification test from any body site (microbiological). We considered a higher quality reference standard to be one in which two or more specimen types were evaluated for tuberculosis diagnosis and a lower quality reference standard to be one in which only one specimen type was evaluated.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data using a standardized form and REDCap electronic data capture tools. We appraised the quality of studies using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool and performed meta-analyses to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity using a bivariate random-effects model and a Bayesian approach. We analyzed studies enrolling strictly symptomatic participants separately from those enrolling unselected participants. We investigated pre-defined sources of heterogeneity including the influence of CD4 count and clinical setting on the accuracy estimates. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 15 unique studies (nine new studies and six studies from the original review that met the inclusion criteria): eight studies among symptomatic adults and seven studies among unselected adults. All studies were conducted in low- or middle-income countries. Risk of bias was high in the patient selection and reference standard domains, mainly because studies excluded participants unable to produce sputum and used a lower quality reference standard.Participants with tuberculosis symptomsLF-LAM pooled sensitivity (95% credible interval (CrI) ) was 42% (31% to 55%) (moderate-certainty evidence) and pooled specificity was 91% (85% to 95%) (very low-certainty evidence), (8 studies, 3449 participants, 37% with tuberculosis).For a population of 1000 people where 300 have microbiologically-confirmed tuberculosis, the utilization of LF-LAM would result in: 189 to be LF-LAM positive: of these, 63 (33%) would not have tuberculosis (false-positives); and 811 to be LF-LAM negative: of these, 174 (21%) would have tuberculosis (false-negatives).By clinical setting, pooled sensitivity was 52% (40% to 64%) among inpatients versus 29% (17% to 47%) among outpatients; and pooled specificity was 87% (78% to 93%) among inpatients versus 96% (91% to 99%) among outpatients. Stratified by CD4 cell count, pooled sensitivity increased, and specificity decreased with lower CD4 cell count.Unselected participants not assessed for signs and symptoms of tuberculosisLF-LAM pooled sensitivity was 35% (22% to 50%), (moderate-certainty evidence) and pooled specificity was 95% (89% to 96%), (low-certainty evidence), (7 studies, 3365 participants, 13% with tuberculosis).For a population of 1000 people where 100 have microbiologically-confirmed tuberculosis, the utilization of LF-LAM would result in: 80 to be LF-LAM positive: of these, 45 (56%) would not have tuberculosis (false-positives); and 920 to be LF-LAM negative: of these, 65 (7%) would have tuberculosis (false-negatives).By clinical setting, pooled sensitivity was 62% (41% to 83%) among inpatients versus 31% (18% to 47%) among outpatients; pooled specificity was 84% (48% to 96%) among inpatients versus 95% (87% to 99%) among outpatients. Stratified by CD4 cell count, pooled sensitivity increased, and specificity decreased with lower CD4 cell count.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found that LF-LAM has a sensitivity of 42% to diagnose tuberculosis in HIV-positive individuals with tuberculosis symptoms and 35% in HIV-positive individuals not assessed for tuberculosis symptoms, consistent with findings reported previously. Regardless of how people are enrolled, sensitivity is higher in inpatients and those with lower CD4 cell, but a concomitant lower specificity. As a simple point-of-care test that does not depend upon sputum evaluation, LF-LAM may assist with the diagnosis of tuberculosis, particularly when a sputum specimen cannot be produced.

Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra for pulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in adults

BACKGROUND

Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert MTB/RIF) and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra), the newest version, are the only World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended rapid tests that simultaneously detect tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in persons with signs and symptoms of tuberculosis, at lower health system levels. A previous Cochrane Review found Xpert MTB/RIF sensitive and specific for tuberculosis (Steingart 2014). Since the previous review, new studies have been published. We performed a review update for an upcoming WHO policy review.

OBJECTIVES

To determine diagnostic accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert Ultra for tuberculosis in adults with presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and for rifampicin resistance in adults with presumptive rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index, Web of Science, Latin American Caribbean Health Sciences Literature, Scopus, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Registry, and ProQuest, to 11 October 2018, without language restriction.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized trials, cross-sectional, and cohort studies using respiratory specimens that evaluated Xpert MTB/RIF, Xpert Ultra, or both against the reference standard, culture for tuberculosis and culture-based drug susceptibility testing or MTBDRplus for rifampicin resistance.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Four review authors independently extracted data using a standardized form. When possible, we also extracted data by smear and HIV status. We assessed study quality using QUADAS-2 and performed meta-analyses to estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity separately for tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance. We investigated potential sources of heterogeneity. Most analyses used a bivariate random-effects model. For tuberculosis detection, we first estimated accuracy using all included studies and then only the subset of studies where participants were unselected, i.e. not selected based on prior microscopy testing.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified in total 95 studies (77 new studies since the previous review): 86 studies (42,091 participants) evaluated Xpert MTB/RIF for tuberculosis and 57 studies (8287 participants) for rifampicin resistance. One study compared Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert Ultra on the same participant specimen.Tuberculosis detectionOf the total 86 studies, 45 took place in high tuberculosis burden and 50 in high TB/HIV burden countries. Most studies had low risk of bias.Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% credible Interval (CrI)) were 85% (82% to 88%) and 98% (97% to 98%), (70 studies, 37,237 unselected participants; high-certainty evidence). We found similar accuracy when we included all studies.For a population of 1000 people where 100 have tuberculosis on culture, 103 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-positive and 18 (17%) would not have tuberculosis (false-positives); 897 would be Xpert MTB/RIF-negative and 15 (2%) would have tuberculosis (false-negatives).Xpert Ultra sensitivity (95% confidence interval (CI)) was 88% (85% to 91%) versus Xpert MTB/RIF 83% (79% to 86%); Xpert Ultra specificity was 96% (94% to 97%) versus Xpert MTB/RIF 98% (97% to 99%), (1 study, 1439 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity was 98% (97% to 98%) in smear-positive and 67% (62% to 72%) in smear-negative, culture-positive participants, (45 studies). Xpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity was 88% (83% to 92%) in HIV-negative and 81% (75% to 86%) in HIV-positive participants; specificities were similar 98% (97% to 99%), (14 studies).Rifampicin resistance detectionXpert MTB/RIF pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% Crl) were 96% (94% to 97%) and 98% (98% to 99%), (48 studies, 8020 participants; high-certainty evidence).For a population of 1000 people where 100 have rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis, 114 would be positive for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis and 18 (16%) would not have rifampicin resistance (false-positives); 886 would be would be negative for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis and four (0.4%) would have rifampicin resistance (false-negatives).Xpert Ultra sensitivity (95% CI) was 95% (90% to 98%) versus Xpert MTB/RIF 95% (91% to 98%); Xpert Ultra specificity was 98% (97% to 99%) versus Xpert MTB/RIF 98% (96% to 99%), (1 study, 551 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found Xpert MTB/RIF to be sensitive and specific for diagnosing PTB and rifampicin resistance, consistent with findings reported previously. Xpert MTB/RIF was more sensitive for tuberculosis in smear-positive than smear-negative participants and HIV-negative than HIV-positive participants. Compared with Xpert MTB/RIF, Xpert Ultra had higher sensitivity and lower specificity for tuberculosis and similar sensitivity and specificity for rifampicin resistance (1 study). Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert Ultra provide accurate results and can allow rapid initiation of treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

The Clinical Utility of Respiratory Viral Testing in Hospitalized Children: A Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Respiratory virus (RV) detection tests are commonly used in hospitalized children to diagnose viral acute respiratory infection (ARI), but their clinical utility is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review and meta-analyze the impact of RV test results on antibiotic consumption, ancillary testing, hospital length of stay, and antiviral use in children hospitalized with severe ARI.

DATA SOURCES

Seven medical literature databases from 1985 through January 2018 were analyzed.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies in children <18 years old hospitalized for severe ARI in which the clinical impact of a positive versus negative RV test result or RV testing versus no testing are compared.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts; extracted data; and assessed study quality.

RESULTS

We included 23 studies. High heterogeneity did not permit an overall meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses by age, RV test type, and viral target showed no difference in the proportion of patients receiving antibiotics between those with positive versus negative test results. Stratification by study design revealed that RV testing decreased antibiotic use in prospective cohort studies (odds ratio = 0.58; 95% confidence interval: 0.45-0.75). Pooled results revealed no conclusive impact on chest radiograph use (odds ratio = 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.04). Results of most studies found that positive RV test results did not impact median hospital length of stay, but they may decrease antibiotic duration. Nineteen (83%) studies were at serious risk of bias.

LIMITATIONS

Low-quality studies and high clinical and statistical heterogeneity were among the limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher-quality prospective studies are needed to determine the impact of RV testing on antibiotic use in children hospitalized with severe ARI.

Association between cognitive reserve and cognitive performance in people with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Cognitive reserve is a potential explanation for the disparity between brain pathology and its clinical manifestations. The main objective of this study was to estimate, based on published studies, the strength of the association between cognitive reserve and cognitive performance in individuals with HIV. A systematic literature search using Ovid MEDLINE, PsychINFO, and EMBASE was performed to identify studies published between 1990 and 2016 that quantified the association between cognitive reserve and cognitive performance in HIV. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to compute a summary estimate (Cohen's d) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and 95% prediction intervals (PI). The risk of bias and quality of reporting in the studies were indicated by the Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS). Ten observational studies were deemed eligible. The pooled effect size was 0.9 (95% CI: 0.7-1.0; 95% PI: 0.4-1.4) with marked heterogeneity studies [Cochran's Q (df = 9) = 28.0, p = .0009; I² statistic = 67.4%]. Risk-of-bias appraisal showed that non-response bias was never addressed and the items associated with selection bias were only partially met. The association between cognitive reserve and cognitive performance suggests that building reserve through non-pharmacological interventions could be a potentially effective way of combating cognitive impairment in people with HIV.

Medical Therapy for Systemic Right Ventricles: A Systematic Review (Part 1) for the 2018 AHA/ACC Guideline for the Management of Adults With Congenital Heart Disease: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines

Patients with systemic morphological right ventricles (RVs), including congenitally corrected transposition of the great arteries and dextro-transposition of the great arteries with a Mustard or Senning atrial baffle repair, have a high likelihood of developing systemic ventricular dysfunction. Unfortunately, there are a limited number of clinical studies on the efficacy of medical therapy for systemic RV dysfunction.

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs), beta blockers, and aldosterone antagonists in adults with systemic RVs. The inclusion criteria included age ≥18 years, systemic RVs, and at least 3 months of treatment with ACE inhibitor, ARB, beta blocker, or aldosterone antagonist. The outcomes included RV end-diastolic and end-systolic dimensions, RV ejection fraction, functional class, and exercise capacity. EMBASE, PubMed, and Cochrane databases were searched. The selected data were pooled and analyzed with the DerSimonian-Laird random-effects meta-analysis model. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed with Cochran’s Q test. A Bayesian meta-analysis model was also used in the event that heterogeneity was low. Bias assessment was performed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool, and statistical risk of bias was assessed with Begg and Mazumdar’s test and Egger’s test.

Six studies met the inclusion criteria, contributing a total of 187 patients; treatment with beta blocker was the intervention that could not be analyzed because of the small number of patients and diversity of outcomes reported. After at least 3 months of treatment with ACE inhibitors, ARBs, or aldosterone antagonists, there was no statistically significant change in mean ejection fraction, ventricular dimensions, or peak ventilatory equivalent of oxygen. The methodological quality of the majority of included studies was low, mainly because of a lack of a randomized and controlled design, small sample size, and incomplete follow-up.

In conclusion, pooled results across the limited available studies did not provide conclusive evidence with regard to a beneficial effect of medical therapy in adults with systemic RV dysfunction. Randomized controlled trials or comparative-effectiveness studies that are sufficiently powered to demonstrate effect are needed to elucidate the efficacy of ACE inhibitors, ARBs, beta blockers, and aldosterone antagonists in patients with systemic RVs.

Association of Cannabis Use in Adolescence and Risk of Depression, Anxiety, and Suicidality in Young Adulthood: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Cannabis is the most commonly used drug of abuse by adolescents in the world. While the impact of adolescent cannabis use on the development of psychosis has been investigated in depth, little is known about the impact of cannabis use on mood and suicidality in young adulthood.

Objective

To provide a summary estimate of the extent to which cannabis use during adolescence is associated with the risk of developing subsequent major depression, anxiety, and suicidal behavior.

Data Sources

Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Proquest Dissertations and Theses were searched from inception to January 2017.

Study Selection

Longitudinal and prospective studies, assessing cannabis use in adolescents younger than 18 years (at least 1 assessment point) and then ascertaining development of depression in young adulthood (age 18 to 32 years) were selected, and odds ratios (OR) adjusted for the presence of baseline depression and/or anxiety and/or suicidality were extracted.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Study quality was assessed using the Research Triangle Institute item bank on risk of bias and precision of observational studies. Two reviewers conducted all review stages independently. Selected data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The studies assessing cannabis use and depression at different points from adolescence to young adulthood and reporting the corresponding OR were included. In the studies selected, depression was diagnosed according to the third or fourth editions of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders or by using scales with predetermined cutoff points.

Results

After screening 3142 articles, 269 articles were selected for full-text review, 35 were selected for further review, and 11 studies comprising 23 317 individuals were included in the quantitative analysis. The OR of developing depression for cannabis users in young adulthood compared with nonusers was 1.37 (95% CI, 1.16-1.62; I2 = 0%). The pooled OR for anxiety was not statistically significant: 1.18 (95% CI, 0.84-1.67; I2 = 42%). The pooled OR for suicidal ideation was 1.50 (95% CI, 1.11-2.03; I2 = 0%), and for suicidal attempt was 3.46 (95% CI, 1.53-7.84, I2 = 61.3%).

Conclusions and Relevance

Although individual-level risk remains moderate to low and results from this study should be confirmed in future adequately powered prospective studies, the high prevalence of adolescents consuming cannabis generates a large number of young people who could develop depression and suicidality attributable to cannabis. This is an important public health problem and concern, which should be properly addressed by health care policy.

Predictors of discordant latent tuberculosis infection test results amongst South African health care workers

BACKGROUND

The tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon-gamma-release-assays (IGRAs) are utilized in screening programmes for presumed latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in health care workers (HCWs). However, inter-test comparison yields high rates of discordance, which is poorly understood. The aim of the study was therefore to identify factors associated with discordance amongst HCWs in a TB and HIV endemic setting.

METHODS

505 HCWs were screened for LTBI in South Africa using the TST and two IGRA assays (QuantiFERON-TB-Gold-In-Tube (QFT-GIT) and TSPOT.TB). Factors associated with discordance were analyzed using a multinomial logistic regression model.

RESULTS

TST-IGRA discordance was negatively associated with longer duration of employment for both TSPOT.TB (OR = 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85-0.99) and QFT-GIT (OR = 0.90; 95% CI 0.84-0.96). Marked test discordance occurred in HIV-infected individuals who were more likely to have TSPOT.TB + ve / TST-ve discordance (OR 4.44; 95% CI 1.14-17.27) or TSPOT.TB + ve / QFT-GIT-ve test discordance (OR 5.72; 95% CI 1.95-16.78). Those engaged in home care were less likely to have QFT-GIT + ve/TSPOT.TB -ve / discordance (OR 0.32; 95% CI 0.10-0.95).

CONCLUSION

The marked TST-IGRA and IGRA-IGRA discordance in HIV-infected individuals suggest greater sensitivity of TSPOT.TB in immunocompromised persons or potential greater reactivity of TSPOT.TB in this population.

Incidence and predictors of prolonged postoperative ileus after colorectal surgery in the context of an enhanced recovery pathway

BACKGROUND

Prolonged postoperative ileus (PPOI) is common after colorectal surgery but has not been widely studied in the context of enhanced recovery pathways (ERPs) that include interventions aimed to accelerate gastrointestinal recovery. The aim of this study is to estimate the incidence and predictors of PPOI in the context of an ERP for colorectal surgery.

METHODS

We analyzed data from an institutional colorectal surgery ERP registry. Incidence of PPOI was estimated according to a definition adapted from Vather (intolerance of solid food and absence of flatus or bowel movement for ≥ 4 days) and compared to other definitions in the literature. Potential risk factors for PPOI were identified from previous studies, and their predictive ability was evaluated using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Results are presented as posterior effect probability (PEP). Evidence of association was categorized as: no evidence (PEP < 50%), weak evidence (50-75%), positive evidence (75-95%), strong evidence (95-99%), and very strong evidence (> 99%).

RESULTS

There were 323 patients analyzed (mean age 63.5 years, 51% males, 74% laparoscopic, 33% rectal resection). The incidence of PPOI was 19% according to the primary definition, but varied between 11 and 59% when using other definitions. On BMA analysis, intraoperative blood loss (PEP 99%; very strong evidence), administration of any intravenous opioids in the first 48 h (PEP 94%; strong evidence), postoperative epidural analgesia (PEP 56%; weak evidence), and non-compliance with intra-operative fluid management protocols (3 ml/kg/h for laparoscopic and 5 ml/kg/h for open; PEP 55%, weak evidence) were predictors of PPOI.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of PPOI after colorectal surgery is high even within an established ERP and varied considerably by diagnostic criteria, highlighting the need for a consensus definition. The use of intravenous opioids is a modifiable strong predictor of PPOI within an ERP, while the role of epidural analgesia and intraoperative fluid management should be further evaluated.

Xpert® MTB/RIF assay for extrapulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is the world's leading infectious cause of death. Extrapulmonary TB accounts for 15% of TB cases, but the proportion is increasing, and over half a million people were newly diagnosed with rifampicin-resistant TB in 2016. Xpert^® MTB/RIF (Xpert) is a World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended, rapid, automated, nucleic acid amplification assay that is used widely for simultaneous detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex and rifampicin resistance in sputum specimens. This Cochrane Review assessed the accuracy of Xpert in extrapulmonary specimens.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of Xpert a) for extrapulmonary TB by site of disease in people presumed to have extrapulmonary TB; and b) for rifampicin resistance in people presumed to have extrapulmonary TB.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index, Web of Science, Latin American Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Scopus, ClinicalTrials.gov, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) Registry, and ProQuest up to 7 August 2017 without language restriction.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included diagnostic accuracy studies of Xpert in people presumed to have extrapulmonary TB. We included TB meningitis and pleural, lymph node, bone or joint, genitourinary, peritoneal, pericardial, and disseminated TB. We used culture as the reference standard. For pleural TB, we also included a composite reference standard, which defined a positive result as the presence of granulomatous inflammation or a positive culture result. For rifampicin resistance, we used culture-based drug susceptibility testing or MTBDRplus as the reference standard.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data, assessed risk of bias and applicability using the QUADAS-2 tool. We determined pooled predicted sensitivity and specificity for TB, grouped by type of extrapulmonary specimen, and for rifampicin resistance. For TB detection, we used a bivariate random-effects model. Recognizing that use of culture may lead to misclassification of cases of extrapulmonary TB as 'not TB' owing to the paucibacillary nature of the disease, we adjusted accuracy estimates by applying a latent class meta-analysis model. For rifampicin resistance detection, we performed univariate meta-analyses for sensitivity and specificity separately to include studies in which no rifampicin resistance was detected. We used theoretical populations with an assumed prevalence to provide illustrative numbers of patients with false positive and false negative results.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 66 unique studies that evaluated 16,213 specimens for detection of extrapulmonary TB and rifampicin resistance. We identified only one study that evaluated the newest test version, Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra), for TB meningitis. Fifty studies (76%) took place in low- or middle-income countries. Risk of bias was low for patient selection, index test, and flow and timing domains and was high or unclear for the reference standard domain (most of these studies decontaminated sterile specimens before culture inoculation). Regarding applicability, in the patient selection domain, we scored high or unclear concern for most studies because either patients were evaluated exclusively as inpatients at tertiary care centres, or we were not sure about the clinical settings.Pooled Xpert sensitivity (defined by culture) varied across different types of specimens (31% in pleural tissue to 97% in bone or joint fluid); Xpert sensitivity was > 80% in urine and bone or joint fluid and tissue. Pooled Xpert specificity (defined by culture) varied less than sensitivity (82% in bone or joint tissue to 99% in pleural fluid and urine). Xpert specificity was ≥ 98% in cerebrospinal fluid, pleural fluid, urine, and peritoneal fluid.Xpert testing in cerebrospinal fluidXpert pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% credible interval (CrI)) against culture were 71.1% (60.9% to 80.4%) and 98.0% (97.0% to 98.8%), respectively (29 studies, 3774 specimens; moderate-certainty evidence).For a population of 1000 people where 100 have TB meningitis on culture, 89 would be Xpert-positive: of these, 18 (20%) would not have TB (false-positives); and 911 would be Xpert-negative: of these, 29 (3%) would have TB (false-negatives).For TB meningitis, ultra sensitivity and specificity against culture (95% confidence interval (CI)) were 90% (55% to 100%) and 90% (83% to 95%), respectively (one study, 129 participants).Xpert testing in pleural fluidXpert pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% CrI) against culture were 50.9% (39.7% to 62.8%) and 99.2% (98.2% to 99.7%), respectively (27 studies, 4006 specimens; low-certainty evidence).For a population of 1000 people where 150 have pleural TB on culture, 83 would be Xpert-positive: of these, seven (8%) would not have TB (false-positives); and 917 would be Xpert-negative: of these, 74 (8%) would have TB (false-negatives).Xpert testing in urineXpert pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% CrI) against culture were 82.7% (69.6% to 91.1%) and 98.7% (94.8% to 99.7%), respectively (13 studies, 1199 specimens; moderate-certainty evidence).For a population of 1000 people where 70 have genitourinary TB on culture, 70 would be Xpert-positive: of these, 12 (17%) would not have TB (false-positives); and 930 would be Xpert-negative: of these, 12 (1%) would have TB (false-negatives).Xpert testing for rifampicin resistanceXpert pooled sensitivity (20 studies, 148 specimens) and specificity (39 studies, 1088 specimens) were 95.0% (89.7% to 97.9%) and 98.7% (97.8% to 99.4%), respectively (high-certainty evidence).For a population of 1000 people where 120 have rifampicin-resistant TB, 125 would be positive for rifampicin-resistant TB: of these, 11 (9%) would not have rifampicin resistance (false-positives); and 875 would be negative for rifampicin-resistant TB: of these, 6 (1%) would have rifampicin resistance (false-negatives).For lymph node TB, the accuracy of culture, the reference standard used, presented a greater concern for bias than in other forms of extrapulmonary TB.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

In people presumed to have extrapulmonary TB, Xpert may be helpful in confirming the diagnosis. Xpert sensitivity varies across different extrapulmonary specimens, while for most specimens, specificity is high, the test rarely yielding a positive result for people without TB (defined by culture). Xpert is accurate for detection of rifampicin resistance. For people with presumed TB meningitis, treatment should be based on clinical judgement, and not withheld solely on an Xpert result, as is common practice when culture results are negative.

Multiplex Respiratory Virus Testing for Antimicrobial Stewardship: A Prospective Assessment of Antimicrobial Use and Clinical Outcomes Among Hospitalized Adults

Background

Respiratory tract infections are frequent causes of hospitalization and initiation of empirical antimicrobial therapy. Testing for a broad panel of respiratory viruses has been advocated as a useful tool for antibiotic stewardship. We conducted a prospective observational study to assess the impact of rapid viral test results on antimicrobial prescriptions and clinical outcomes among hospitalized adults.

Methods

Eight hundred patients admitted with respiratory symptoms were tested by a 12-virus respiratory panel (RVP) during 3 consecutive winters in Montreal, Canada. The primary outcome measure was change in antimicrobial prescriptions (ie, de-escalation of empirical antimicrobial therapy or commencement of new antimicrobial therapy) after RVP results were available. Clinical outcomes were also assessed.

Results

Influenza virus was identified in 53% of individuals in the study population, and other viruses were identified in 10%. Influenza virus positivity was associated with shorter duration of hospitalization and appropriate antiviral management. Antibiotic management was most significantly correlated with radiographic suspicion of pneumonia and less so with results of the RVP. Positivity for viruses other than influenza virus was not correlated with significantly different outcomes.

Conclusions

Physicians respond to results of testing for influenza virus when managing hospitalized adult patients but respond less to test results for other viruses. These data can inform the design of stewardship interventions and the selection of viral testing panels for hospitalized patients.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Novel and Traditional Rapid Tests for Influenza Infection Compared With Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Rapid and accurate influenza diagnostics can improve patient care.

PURPOSE

To summarize and compare accuracy of traditional rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDTs), digital immunoassays (DIAs), and rapid nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) in children and adults with suspected influenza.

DATA SOURCES

6 databases from their inception through May 2017.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies in English, French, or Spanish comparing commercialized rapid tests (that is, providing results in <30 minutes) with reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction reference standard for influenza diagnosis.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data were extracted using a standardized form; quality was assessed using QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2) criteria.

DATA SYNTHESIS

162 studies were included (130 of RIDTs, 19 of DIAs, and 13 of NAATs). Pooled sensitivities for detecting influenza A from Bayesian bivariate random-effects models were 54.4% (95% credible interval [CrI], 48.9% to 59.8%) for RIDTs, 80.0% (CrI, 73.4% to 85.6%) for DIAs, and 91.6% (CrI, 84.9% to 95.9%) for NAATs. Those for detecting influenza B were 53.2% (CrI, 41.7% to 64.4%) for RIDTs, 76.8% (CrI, 65.4% to 85.4%) for DIAs, and 95.4% (CrI, 87.3% to 98.7%) for NAATs. Pooled specificities were uniformly high (>98%). Forty-six influenza A and 24 influenza B studies presented pediatric-specific data; 35 influenza A and 16 influenza B studies presented adult-specific data. Pooled sensitivities were higher in children by 12.1 to 31.8 percentage points, except for influenza A by rapid NAATs (2.7 percentage points). Pooled sensitivities favored industry-sponsored studies by 6.2 to 34.0 percentage points. Incomplete reporting frequently led to unclear risk of bias.

LIMITATIONS

Underreporting of clinical variables limited exploration of heterogeneity. Few NAAT studies reported adult-specific data, and none evaluated point-of-care testing. Many studies had unclear risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

Novel DIAs and rapid NAATs had markedly higher sensitivities for influenza A and B in both children and adults than did traditional RIDTs, with equally high specificities.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Québec Health Research Fund and BD Diagnostic Systems.

Modeling conditional dependence among multiple diagnostic tests

When multiple imperfect dichotomous diagnostic tests are applied to an individual, it is possible that some or all of their results remain dependent even after conditioning on the true disease status. The estimates could be biased if this conditional dependence is ignored when using the test results to infer about the prevalence of a disease or the accuracies of the diagnostic tests. However, statistical methods correcting for this bias by modelling higher-order conditional dependence terms between multiple diagnostic tests are not well addressed in the literature. This paper extends a Bayesian fixed effects model for 2 diagnostic tests with pairwise correlation to cases with 3 or more diagnostic tests with higher order correlations. Simulation results show that the proposed fixed effects model works well both in the case when the tests are highly correlated and in the case when the tests are truly conditionally independent, provided adequate external information is available in the form of fixed constraints or prior distributions. A data set on the diagnosis of childhood pulmonary tuberculosis is used to illustrate the proposed model.

Xpert® MTB/RIF assay for extrapulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (Diagnostic test accuracy). The objectives are as follows:

Taking Costs and Diagnostic Test Accuracy into Account When Designing Prevalence Studies: An Application to Childhood Tuberculosis Prevalence

BACKGROUND

When planning a study to estimate disease prevalence to a pre-specified precision, it is of interest to minimize total testing cost. This is particularly challenging in the absence of a perfect reference test for the disease because different combinations of imperfect tests need to be considered. We illustrate the problem and a solution by designing a study to estimate the prevalence of childhood tuberculosis in a hospital setting.

METHODS

All possible combinations of 3 commonly used tuberculosis tests, including chest X-ray, tuberculin skin test, and a sputum-based test, either culture or Xpert, are considered. For each of the 11 possible test combinations, 3 Bayesian sample size criteria, including average coverage criterion, average length criterion and modified worst outcome criterion, are used to determine the required sample size and total testing cost, taking into consideration prior knowledge about the accuracy of the tests.

RESULTS

In some cases, the required sample sizes and total testing costs were both reduced when more tests were used, whereas, in other examples, lower costs are achieved with fewer tests.

CONCLUSION

Total testing cost should be formally considered when designing a prevalence study.