READ-ing antimicrobial stewardship in the Caribbean: a tri-nation document review

Objective

To explore the antimicrobial stewardship policy landscape in three English-speaking Caribbean countries (Barbados, Guyana, and Saint Lucia) and examine the key enablers and challenges to the design and implementation of formal antimicrobial stewardship programs.

Methods

A document analysis that searched for existing policy, communications, and contributions on antimicrobial stewardship from these three countries, adapting the READ (Ready materials; Extract data; Analyze data; Distill findings) approach, a systematic procedure for health policy document review.

Results

The search strategy identified 726 initial records. Of those, 15 (2%) met the inclusion criteria. The analysis included official policy documents (n = 3), scholarly works/reviews (n = 3), advocacy documents (n = 2), news articles (n = 4), and confidential reports (n = 3) from the three countries.

Conclusions

Critical matters such as cross-programmatic coordination, the significance of individual action, and the need for bidirectional knowledge discourse are prominent in optimizing antimicrobial stewardship adaptation in these countries. CARICOM regional coordination has positively impacted the integration of infection prevention and control with antimicrobial stewardship across this knowledge network.

Reporting on antibiotic use patterns using the WHO Access, Watch, Reserve classification in the Caribbean

Objective.

To assess antibiotic use in three hospitals in three Caribbean countries based on data from 2013 and 2018 using the World Health Organization Essential Medicines List “Access, Watch, Reserve” (AWaRe) classification

Methods.

A retrospective observational study, which analyzed the World Health Organization Point Prevalence Survey data from three hospitals in three Caribbean countries, to examine proportional AWaRe group antibiotic use for the top ten inpatient indications. The Access-to-Watch ratio was calculated, and the top three antibiotics prescribed in each hospital were determined.

Results.

The final data set included 376 prescriptions for the top ten indications in 766 inpatients. The hospital antibiotic use point prevalence for Hospital 1 was 35.6%, Hospital 2 was 48.6%, and Hospital 3 was 47.1%. The Access-to-Watch ratio for the top ten indications was 2.45, 1.36, and 1.72 in the three hospitals. Access group prevalence was 71.0% in Hospital 1, 57.6% in Hospital 2, and 63.2% in Hospital 3. There were no Reserve antibiotics prescribed in any of the institutions. The most common indication for Watch prescription was skin and soft tissue infections in Hospital 1 and pneumonia in Hospital 2 and 3.

Conclusions.

This study draws urgent attention to evidence of a high proportion of Watch antibiotic prescribing and lack of Reserve group antibiotics in three Caribbean countries. This research provides data that may inform national formulary and antimicrobial stewardship policy-making across the settings analyzed and the wider region.

HPV vaccine introduction in the Americas: a decade of progress and lessons learned

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is an important public health concern due to its causative role in many cancers, especially cervical cancer, and other conditions that lead to serious health consequences in both men and women. In Latin America and the Caribbean, nearly 60,000 new cases of cervical cancer and another 7,000 HPV-associated cancers are diagnosed annually.

AREAS COVERED

HPV vaccination combined with comprehensive cervical cancer control programmingis paving the way for eliminating cervical cancer as a major public health problem and drastically reducing other HPV-associated diseases. To date, 44 countries and territories in the Americas have introduced HPV vaccines as part of their national immunization programs and cervical cancer control strategies. Early lessons from HPV vaccine introduction suggest that transparent and credible evidence-based decision-making, information, education and communication about HPV and cervical cancer, coordination with existing cervical cancer control initiatives, and precise planning for ensuring effective uptake of the vaccine in target groups are all critical elements of success.

EXPERT OPINION

There is an urgent need for strategies to increase HPV vaccine coverage, and as the integrated control programs evolve and other HPV-associated disease becomes important for public health, there will be a need for continued program and policy evaluation.

The CAPACITI Decision-Support Tool for National Immunization Programs

OBJECTIVES

Immunization programs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are faced with an ever-growing number of vaccines of public health importance recommended by the World Health Organization, while also financing a greater proportion of the program through domestic resources. More than ever, national immunization programs must be equipped to contextualize global guidance and make choices that are best suited to their setting. The CAPACITI decision-support tool has been developed in collaboration with national immunization program decision makers in LMICs to structure and document an evidence-based, context-specific process for prioritizing or selecting among multiple vaccination products, services, or strategies.

METHODS

The CAPACITI decision-support tool is based on multi-criteria decision analysis, as a structured way to incorporate multiple sources of evidence and stakeholder perspectives. The tool has been developed iteratively in consultation with 12 countries across Africa, Asia, and the Americas.

RESULTS

The tool is flexible to existing country processes and can follow any type of multi-criteria decision analysis or a hybrid approach. It is structured into 5 sections: decision question, criteria for decision making, evidence assessment, appraisal, and recommendation. The Excel-based tool guides the user through the steps and document discussions in a transparent manner, with an emphasis on stakeholder engagement and country ownership.

CONCLUSIONS

Pilot countries valued the CAPACITI decision-support tool as a means to consider multiple criteria and stakeholder perspectives and to evaluate trade-offs and the impact of data quality. With use, it is expected that LMICs will tailor steps to their context and streamline the tool for decision making.

Moroccan National Immunization Technical Advisory Group: a valuable asset for the national immunization program and the immunization agenda in the EMRO region

The main mission of a National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (NITAG) is to provide impartial, evidence-based recommendations on immunization to the Ministry of Health. We report on the findings from an evaluation of the Moroccan NITAG with emphasis on its functionality, quality of work processes and outputs, and its integration into the immunization policy process. We conducted a cross-sectional study from October to December 2019. We used the standardized, US-CDC/WHO-developed "simplified assessment tool for national immunization technical advisory groups". The evaluation included eight participants. The evaluation has shown that it fully complies with the WHO recommendations. Among its strengths, the Moroccan NITAG has a solid legal basis, diverse expertise and many years of combined experience. This composition contributed to the credibility and strength of its recommendations and facilitated their implementation. The NITAG could, however, benefit from implementing written declarations of interests and standardized operating procedures in addition to establishing a standardized methodology to guide and document the decision-making process. The Moroccan NITAG could also gain from inviting members with public health/epidemiology research experience and from exchanging with other NITAGs in the region and globally. Finally, ensuring sustainable funding for the NITAG's activities will be crucial, so that it can continue its valuable support to the national immunization program.

Evidence-informed vaccination decision-making in countries: Progress, challenges and opportunities

Countries face an increasingly complex vaccination landscape. As well as ever-changing infectious disease epidemiology, the number and diversity of vaccine-preventable diseases, vaccine products, and vaccine technologies continue to increase. To ensure that vaccination decision-making is transparent, country-owned and informed by sound scientific evidence, many countries have established national immunization technical advisory groups (NITAGs) to provide independent expert advice. The past decade has seen substantial growth in NITAG numbers and functionality, and there is now a need to consolidate this progress, by further capacity building, to ensure that NITAGs are responsive to the changing face of immunization over the next decade.

Heterogeneity in influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa: early estimates of the 2019 influenza season

We compared 2019 influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in four southern hemisphere countries: Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa. Influenza seasons differed in timing, duration, intensity and predominant circulating viruses. VE estimates were also heterogeneous, with all-ages point estimates ranging from 7-70% (I2: 33%) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 4-57% (I2: 49%) for A(H3N2) and 29-66% (I2: 0%) for B. Caution should be applied when attempting to use southern hemisphere data to predict the northern hemisphere influenza season.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations in children and older adults-Data from South America, 2013-2017. A test negative design

BACKGROUND

In 2013, the Pan American Health Organization established a multi-site, multi-country network to evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). We pooled data from five consecutive seasons in five countries to conduct an analysis of southern hemisphere VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations in young children and older adults.

METHODS

We used a test-negative design to estimate VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza in hospitalized young children (aged 6─24 months) and older adults (aged ≥60 years) in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Paraguay. Following country-specific influenza surveillance protocol, hospitalized persons with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) at 48 sentinel hospitals (March 2013-December 2017) were tested for influenza virus infection by rRT-PCR. VE was estimated for young children and older adults using logistic random effects models accounting for cluster (country), adjusting for sex, age (months for children, and age-in-year categories for adults), calendar year, country, preexisting conditions, month of illness onset and prior vaccination as an effect modifier for the analysis in adults.

RESULTS

We included 8426 SARI cases (2389 children and 6037 adults) in the VE analyses. Among young children, VE against SARI hospitalization associated with any influenza virus was 43% (95%CI: 33%, 51%) for children who received two doses, but was 20% (95%CI: -16%, 45%) and not statistically significant for those who received one dose in a given season. Among older adults, overall VE against SARI hospitalization associated with any influenza virus was 41% (95%CI: 28%, 52%), 45% (95%CI: 34%, 53%) against A(H3N2), 40% (95%CI: 18%, 56%) against A(H1N1)pdm09, and 20% (95%CI: -40%, 54%) against influenza B viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that over the five-year study period, influenza vaccination programs in five South American countries prevented more than one-third of laboratory confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations in young children receiving the recommended two doses and vaccinated older adults.

Severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) from influenza in adult patients in Chile: the experience of a sentinel hospital

Objective

To 1) describe clinical characteristics of adult patients in Chile with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) associated with influenza viruses, and 2) analyze virus subtypes identified in specimens collected from those patients, hospital resources used in clinical management, clinical evolution, and risk factors associated with a fatal outcome, using observational data from the SARI surveillance network (SARInet).

Methods

Adults hospitalized from 1 July 2011 to 31 December 2015 with influenza-associated SARI at a SARI sentinel surveillance hospital in Santiago were identified and the presence of influenza in all cases confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), using respiratory samples.

Results

A total of 221 patients (mean age: 74.1 years) were hospitalized with influenza-associated SARI during the study period. Of this study cohort, 91.4% had risk factors for complications and 34.3% had been vaccinated during the most recent campaign. Pneumonia was the most frequent clinical manifestation, occurring in 57.0% of the cohort; other manifestations included influenza-like illness, exacerbated chronic bronchitis, decompensated heart failure, and asthmatic crisis. Cases occurred year-round, with an epidemic peak during autumn–winter. Both influenza A (H1N1pdm09 and H3N2) and B virus co-circulated. Critical care beds were required for 26.7% of the cohort, and 19.5% needed ventilatory assistance. Multivariate analysis identified four significant factors associated with in-hospital mortality: 1) being bedridden (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 22.3; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0–164); 2) admission to critical care unit (aOR: 8.9; CI: 1.44–55); 3) Pa0₂/Fi0₂ ratio < 250 (aOR: 5.8; CI: 1.02–33); and 4) increased serum creatinine concentration (> 1 mg/dL) (aOR: 5.47; CI: 1.20–24). Seasonal influenza vaccine was identified as a significant protective factor (aOR: 0.14; CI: 0.021–0.90).

Conclusions

Influenza-associated SARI affected mainly elderly patients with underlying conditions. Most patients evolved to respiratory failure and more than one-quarter required critical care beds. Clinical presentation was variable. Death was associated with host characteristics and disease-associated conditions, and vaccine was protective. Virus type did not influence outcome.

Seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations - Latin America, 2013

BACKGROUND

Despite widespread utilization of influenza vaccines, effectiveness (VE) has not been routinely measured in Latin America.

METHODS

We used a case test-negative control design to estimate trivalent inactivated influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza among hospitalized children aged 6months-5years and adults aged ≥60years which are age-groups targeted for vaccination. We sought persons with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), hospitalized at 71 sentinel hospitals in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and Paraguay during January-December 2013. Cases had an influenza virus infection confirmed by real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); controls had a negative rRT-PCR result for influenza viruses. We used a two-stage random effects model to estimate pooled VE per target age-group, adjusting for the month of illness onset, age and preexisting medical conditions.

RESULTS

We identified 2620 SARI patients across sites: 246 influenza cases and 720 influenza-negative controls aged ≤5years and 448 cases and 1206 controls aged ≥60years. The most commonly identified subtype among participants (48%) was the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus followed by influenza A(H3N2) (34%) and influenza B (18%) viruses. Among children, the adjusted VE of full vaccination (one dose for previously vaccinated or two if vaccine naïve) against any influenza virus SARI was 47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14-71%); VE was 58% (95% CI: 16-79%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 65% (95% CI: -9; 89%) against influenza A(H3N2) viruses associated SARI. Crude VE of full vaccination against influenza B viruses associated SARI among children was 3% (95% CI: -150; 63). Among adults aged ≥60years, adjusted VE against any influenza SARI was 48% (95% CI: 34-60%); VE was 54% (95% CI: 37-69%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 43% (95% CI: 18-61%) against influenza A(H3N2) and 34% (95% CI: -4; 58%) against B viruses associated SARI.

CONCLUSION

Influenza vaccine provided moderate protection against severe influenza illness among fully vaccinated young children and older adults, supporting current vaccination strategies.

Progress towards a comprehensive approach to maternal and neonatal immunization in the Americas

Maternal and neonatal immunization (MNI) is a core component of the new immunization model in the Americas, which transitioned from immunization of children to that of the entire family. Immunization during pregnancy protects the mother and the fetus by providing the neonate with maternal antibodies against disease. It has the potential to impact early childhood morbidity and mortality, and thus MNI has gained visibility and priority on the global health agenda.

The Region of the Americas is a leader in MNI, as seen by its elimination of congenital rubella syndrome in 2015 and the progress made toward neonatal tetanus elimination. In the Americas, 31 countries currently target pregnant women for influenza vaccination; and 21 countries—over 90% of the Region’s birth cohort—have nationwide newborn hepatitis B vaccination.

This paper describes the status of MNI in the Americas and identifies gaps in the evidence, obstacles to optimal implementation, and opportunities for future improvements. Catalysts for MNI in the Region have been political commitment, endorsement by scientific societies, an established “culture of vaccination,” widespread access to antenatal care, and context-specific communications; however, universal and equitable access for pregnant women and their newborns continues to be a formidable challenge, and additional vaccine safety and effectiveness evidence is needed. Continued efforts to integrate MNI with maternal and child health services will be critical to furthering the MNI platform as well.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing severe influenza illness among adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis of test-negative design case-control studies

OBJECTIVES

Summary evidence of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against hospitalized influenza is lacking. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting IVE against laboratory-confirmed hospitalized influenza among adults.

METHODS

We searched Pubmed (January 2009 to November 2016) for studies that used test-negative design (TND) to enrol patients hospitalized with influenza-associated conditions. Two independent authors selected relevant articles. We calculated pooled IVE against any and (sub)type specific influenza among all adults, and stratified by age group (18-64 and 65 years and above) using random-effects models.

RESULTS

We identified 3411 publications and 30 met our inclusion criteria. Between 2010-11 and 2014-15, the pooled seasonal IVE was 41% (95%CI:34;48) for any influenza (51% (95%CI:44;58) among people aged 18-64y and 37% (95%CI:30;44) among ≥65 years). IVE was 48% (95%CI:37;59),37% (95%CI:24;50) and 38% (95%CI:23;53) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B, respectively. Among persons aged ≥65 year, IVE against A(H3N2) was 43% (95%CI:33;53) in seasons when circulating and vaccine strains were antigenically similar and 14% (95%CI:-3;30) when A(H3N2) variant viruses predominated.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccines provided moderate protection against influenza-associated hospitalizations among adults. They seemed to provide low protection among elderly in seasons where vaccine and circulating A(H3N2) strains were antigenically variant.

Progress in vaccination towards hepatitis B control and elimination in the Region of the Americas

BACKGROUND

Over recent decades, the Region of the Americas has made significant progress towards hepatitis B elimination. We summarize the countries/territories' efforts in introducing and implementing hepatitis B (HB) vaccination and in evaluating its impact on HB virus seroprevalence.

METHODS

We collected information about HB vaccination schedules, coverage estimates, and year of vaccine introduction from countries/territories reporting to the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) through the WHO/UNICEF Joint Reporting Form on Immunization. We obtained additional information regarding countries/territories vaccination recommendations and strategies through communications with Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) managers and national immunization survey reports. We identified vaccine impact studies conducted and published in the Americas.

RESULTS

As of October 2016, all 51 countries/territories have included infant HB vaccination in their official immunization schedule. Twenty countries, whose populations represent over 90% of the Region's births, have included nationwide newborn HB vaccination. We estimated at 89% and 75%, the regional three-dose series and the birth dose HB vaccination coverage, respectively, for 2015. The impact evaluations of infant HB immunization programs in the Region have shown substantial reductions in HB surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence.

CONCLUSION

The achievements of vaccination programs in the Americas suggest that the elimination of perinatal and early childhood HB transmission could be feasible in the short-term. Moreover, the data gathered indicate that the Region may have already achieved the 2020 WHO goal for HB control.

Influenza vaccination in the Americas: Progress and challenges after the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic

Background: There has been considerable uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines in the Americas compared to other regions. We describe the current influenza vaccination target groups, recent progress in vaccine uptake and in generating evidence on influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness for immunization programs. We also discuss persistent challenges, 5 years after the A(H1N1) 2009 influenza pandemic.

Methods: We compiled and summarized data annually reported by countries to the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) through the WHO/UNICEF joint report form on immunization, information obtained through PAHO's Revolving Fund for Vaccine Procurement and communications with managers of national Expanded Programs on Immunization (EPI).

Results: Since 2008, 25 countries/territories in the Americas have introduced new target groups for vaccination or expanded the age ranges of existing target groups. As of 2014, 40 (89%) out of 45 countries/territories have policies established for seasonal influenza vaccination. Currently, 29 (64%) countries/territories target pregnant women for vaccination, the highest priority group according to WHO´s Stategic Advisory Group of Experts and PAHO/WHO's Technical Advisory Group on Vaccine-preventable Diseases, compared to only 7 (16%) in 2008. Among 23 countries reporting coverage data, on average, 75% of adults ≥60 years, 45% of children aged 6–23 months, 32% of children aged 5–2 years, 59% of pregnant women, 78% of healthcare workers, and 90% of individuals with chronic conditions were vaccinated during the 2013–14 Northern Hemisphere or 2014 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccination activities. Difficulties however persist in the estimation of vaccination coverage, especially for pregnant women and persons with chronic conditions. Since 2007, 6 tropical countries have changed their vaccine formulation from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere formulation and the timing of their campaigns to April-May following the review of national evidence. LAC countries have also established an official network dedicated to evaluating influenza vaccines effectiveness and impact.

Conclusion: Following the A(H1N1)2009 influenza pandemic, countries of the Americas have continued their efforts to sustain or increase seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among high risk groups, especially among pregnant women. Countries also continued strengthening influenza surveillance, immunization platforms and information systems, indirectly improving preparedness for future pandemics. Influenza vaccination is particularly challenging compared to other vaccines included in EPI schedules, due to the need for annual, optimally timed vaccination, the wide spectrum of target groups, and the limitations of the available vaccines. Countries should continue to monitor influenza vaccination coverage, generate evidence for vaccination programs and implement social communication strategies addressing existing gaps.

Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014

Background

Influenza‐associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics.

Objectives

Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred.

Methods

Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009–2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country.

Results

We analyzed 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months.

Conclusions

The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.

Influenza Illness among Case-Patients Hospitalized for Suspected Dengue, El Salvador, 2012

We estimate the proportion of patients hospitalized for suspected dengue that tested positive for influenza virus in El Salvador during the 2012 influenza season. We tested specimens from 321 hospitalized patients: 198 patients with SARI and 123 patients with suspected dengue. Among 121 hospitalized suspected dengue (two co-infected excluded) patients, 28% tested positive for dengue and 19% positive for influenza; among 35 with suspected dengue and respiratory symptoms, 14% were positive for dengue and 39% positive for influenza. One percent presented co-infection between influenza and dengue. Clinicians should consider the diagnosis of influenza among patients with suspected dengue during the influenza season.

Pilot to evaluate the feasibility of measuring seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness using surveillance platforms in Central-America, 2012

Background

Since 2004, the uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines in Latin America and the Caribbean has markedly increased. However, vaccine effectiveness (VE) is not routinely measured in the region. We assessed the feasibility of using routine surveillance data collected by sentinel hospitals to estimate influenza VE during 2012 against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations in Costa-Rica, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama. We explored the completeness of variables needed for VE estimation.

Methods

We conducted the pilot case–control study at 23 severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) surveillance hospitals. Participant inclusion criteria included children 6 months–11 years and adults ≥60 years targeted for vaccination and hospitalized for SARI during January–December 2012. We abstracted information needed to estimate target group specific VE (i.e., date of illness onset and specimen collection, preexisting medical conditions, 2012 and 2011 vaccination status and date, and pneumococcal vaccination status for children and adults) from SARI case-reports and for children ≤9 years, inquired about the number of annual vaccine doses given. A case was defined as an influenza virus positive by RT-PCR in a person with SARI, while controls were RT-PCR negative. We recruited 3 controls per case from the same age group and month of onset of symptoms.

Results

We identified 1,186 SARI case-patients (342 influenza cases; 849 influenza-negative controls), of which 994 (84 %) had all the information on key variables sought. In 893 (75 %) SARI case-patients, the vaccination status field was missing in the SARI case-report forms and had to be completed using national vaccination registers (36 %), vaccination cards (30 %), or other sources (34 %). After applying exclusion criteria for VE analyses, 541 (46 %) SARI case-patients with variables necessary for the group-specific VE analyses were selected (87 cases, 236 controls among children; 64 cases, 154 controls among older adults) and were insufficient to provide precise regional estimates (39 % for children and 25 % for adults of minimum sample size needed).

Conclusions

Sentinel surveillance networks in middle income countries, such as some Latin American and Caribbean countries, could provide a simple and timely platform to estimate regional influenza VE annually provided SARI forms collect all necessary information.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2001-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Influence of temperature and rainfall on the evolution of cholera epidemics in Lusaka, Zambia, 2003-2006: analysis of a time series

In this study, we aimed to describe the evolution of three cholera epidemics that occurred in Lusaka, Zambia, between 2003 and 2006 and to analyse the association between the increase in number of cases and climatic factors. A Poisson autoregressive model controlling for seasonality and trend was built to estimate the association between the increase in the weekly number of cases and weekly means of daily maximum temperature and rainfall. All epidemics showed a seasonal trend coinciding with the rainy season (November to March). A 1 degrees C rise in temperature 6 weeks before the onset of the outbreak explained 5.2% [relative risk (RR) 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06] of the increase in the number of cholera cases (2003-2006). In addition, a 50 mm increase in rainfall 3 weeks before explained an increase of 2.5% (RR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04). The attributable risks were 4.9% for temperature and 2.4% for rainfall. If 6 weeks prior to the beginning of the rainy season an increase in temperature is observed followed by an increase in rainfall 3 weeks later, both exceeding expected levels, an increase in the number of cases of cholera within the following 3 weeks could be expected. Our explicative model could contribute to developing a warning signal to reduce the impact of a presumed cholera epidemic.