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Staal A, Theeuwen JJE, Wang-Erlandsson L, Wunderling N, Dekker SC. Targeted rainfall enhancement as an objective of forestation. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17096. [PMID: 38273477 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Forestation efforts are accelerating across the globe in the fight against global climate change, in order to restore biodiversity, and to improve local livelihoods. Yet, so far the non-local effects of forestation on rainfall have largely remained a blind spot. Here we build upon emerging work to propose that targeted rainfall enhancement may also be considered in the prioritization of forestation. We show that the tools to achieve this are rapidly becoming available, but we also identify drawbacks and discuss which further developments are still needed to realize robust assessments of the rainfall effects of forestation in the face of climate change. Forestation programs may then mitigate not only global climate change itself but also its adverse effects in the form of drying.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arie Staal
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jolanda J E Theeuwen
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Wetsus, European Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Water Technology, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands
| | - Lan Wang-Erlandsson
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Nico Wunderling
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Stefan C Dekker
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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2
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Kohler J, Wunderling N, Donges JF, Vollmer J. Complex networks of interacting stochastic tipping elements: Cooperativity of phase separation in the large-system limit. Phys Rev E 2021; 104:044301. [PMID: 34781496 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.104.044301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Tipping elements in the Earth system have received increased scientific attention over recent years due to their nonlinear behavior and the risks of abrupt state changes. While being stable over a large range of parameters, a tipping element undergoes a drastic shift in its state upon an additional small parameter change when close to its tipping point. Recently, the focus of research broadened towards emergent behavior in networks of tipping elements, like global tipping cascades triggered by local perturbations. Here, we analyze the response to the perturbation of a single node in a system that initially resides in an unstable equilibrium. The evolution is described in terms of coupled nonlinear equations for the cumulants of the distribution of the elements. We show that drift terms acting on individual elements and offsets in the coupling strength are subdominant in the limit of large networks, and we derive an analytical prediction for the evolution of the expectation (i.e., the first cumulant). It behaves like a single aggregated tipping element characterized by a dimensionless parameter that accounts for the network size, its overall connectivity, and the average coupling strength. The resulting predictions are in excellent agreement with numerical data for Erdös-Rényi, Barabási-Albert, and Watts-Strogatz networks of different size and with different coupling parameters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan Kohler
- Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany, EU.,Earth System Analysis, Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, EU
| | - Nico Wunderling
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, EU.,Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany, EU.,Department of Physics, Humboldt University of Berlin, 12489 Berlin, Germany, EU
| | - Jonathan F Donges
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, EU.,Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden, EU
| | - Jürgen Vollmer
- Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany, EU
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Wunderling N, Willeit M, Donges JF, Winkelmann R. Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice. Nat Commun 2020; 11:5177. [PMID: 33110092 PMCID: PMC7591863 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2019] [Accepted: 09/17/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nico Wunderling
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, D-14473, Germany. .,Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, D-14476, Germany. .,Department of Physics, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, D-12489, Germany.
| | - Matteo Willeit
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, D-14473, Germany
| | - Jonathan F Donges
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, D-14473, Germany.,Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE, 10691, Sweden
| | - Ricarda Winkelmann
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, D-14473, Germany. .,Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, D-14476, Germany.
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4
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Krönke J, Wunderling N, Winkelmann R, Staal A, Stumpf B, Tuinenburg OA, Donges JF. Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks. Phys Rev E 2020; 101:042311. [PMID: 32422827 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.101.042311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2019] [Accepted: 03/18/2020] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy, and engineering. Tipping points are critical thresholds in system parameters or state variables at which a tiny perturbation can lead to a qualitative change of the system. Many systems with tipping points can be modeled as networks of coupled multistable subsystems, e.g., coupled patches of vegetation, connected lakes, interacting climate tipping elements, and multiscale infrastructure systems. In such networks, tipping events in one subsystem are able to induce tipping cascades via domino effects. Here, we investigate the effects of network topology on the occurrence of such cascades. Numerical cascade simulations with a conceptual dynamical model for tipping points are conducted on Erdős-Rényi, Watts-Strogatz, and Barabási-Albert networks. Additionally, we generate more realistic networks using data from moisture-recycling simulations of the Amazon rainforest and compare the results to those obtained for the model networks. We furthermore use a directed configuration model and a stochastic block model which preserve certain topological properties of the Amazon network to understand which of these properties are responsible for its increased vulnerability. We find that clustering and spatial organization increase the vulnerability of networks and can lead to tipping of the whole network. These results could be useful to evaluate which systems are vulnerable or robust due to their network topology and might help us to design or manage systems accordingly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Krönke
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.,Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Nico Wunderling
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.,Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany.,Department of Physics, Humboldt University of Berlin, 12489 Berlin, Germany
| | - Ricarda Winkelmann
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.,Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Arie Staal
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Benedikt Stumpf
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.,Department of Physics, Free University Berlin, 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | - Obbe A Tuinenburg
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden.,Copernicus Institute, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jonathan F Donges
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.,Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
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Wunderling N, Stumpf B, Krönke J, Staal A, Tuinenburg OA, Winkelmann R, Donges JF. How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro- to macro-scales. Chaos 2020; 30:043129. [PMID: 32357654 DOI: 10.1063/1.5142827] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2019] [Accepted: 04/02/2020] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
In this study, we investigate how specific micro-interaction structures (motifs) affect the occurrence of tipping cascades on networks of stylized tipping elements. We compare the properties of cascades in Erdős-Rényi networks and an exemplary moisture recycling network of the Amazon rainforest. Within these networks, decisive small-scale motifs are the feed forward loop, the secondary feed forward loop, the zero loop, and the neighboring loop. Of all motifs, the feed forward loop motif stands out in tipping cascades since it decreases the critical coupling strength necessary to initiate a cascade more than the other motifs. We find that for this motif, the reduction of critical coupling strength is 11% less than the critical coupling of a pair of tipping elements. For highly connected networks, our analysis reveals that coupled feed forward loops coincide with a strong 90% decrease in the critical coupling strength. For the highly clustered moisture recycling network in the Amazon, we observe regions of a very high motif occurrence for each of the four investigated motifs, suggesting that these regions are more vulnerable. The occurrence of motifs is found to be one order of magnitude higher than in a random Erdős-Rényi network. This emphasizes the importance of local interaction structures for the emergence of global cascades and the stability of the network as a whole.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nico Wunderling
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Benedikt Stumpf
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jonathan Krönke
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Arie Staal
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-10691, Sweden
| | - Obbe A Tuinenburg
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-10691, Sweden
| | - Ricarda Winkelmann
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jonathan F Donges
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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Metzner C, Lange J, Krauss P, Wunderling N, Übelacker J, Martin F, Fabry B. Pressure-driven collective growth mechanism of planar cell colonies. J Phys D Appl Phys 2018; 51:304004. [PMID: 30906071 PMCID: PMC6426131 DOI: 10.1088/1361-6463/aace4c] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
The growth of cell colonies is determined by the migration and proliferation of the individual cells. This is often modeled with the Fisher-Kolmogorov (FK) equation, which assumes that cells diffuse independently from each other, but stop to proliferate when their density reaches a critial limit. However, when using measured, cell-line specific parameters, we find that the FK equation drastically underestimates the experimentally observed increase of colony radius with time. Moreover, cells in real colonies migrate radially outward with superdiffusive trajectories, in contrast to the assumption of random diffusion. We demonstrate that both dicrepancies can be resolved by assuming that cells in dense colonies are driven apart by repulsive, pressure-like forces. Using this model of proliferating repelling particles (PRP), we find that colony growth exhibits different dynamical regimes, depending on the ratio between a pressure-related equilibrium cell density and the critial density of proliferation arrest.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claus Metzner
- Biophysics Group, Friedrich-Alexander-University, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Janina Lange
- Soft Condensed Matter Group, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Germany
| | - Patrick Krauss
- Experimental Otolaryngology, University Hospital Erlangen, Germany
| | | | | | | | - Ben Fabry
- Biophysics Group, Friedrich-Alexander-University, Erlangen, Germany
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