Diagnostic yield from symptomatic lower gastrointestinal endoscopy in the UK: A British Society of Gastroenterology analysis using data from the National Endoscopy Database

BACKGROUND

The value of lower gastrointestinal endoscopy (LGIE; colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy) relates to its ability to detect clinically relevant findings, predominantly cancers, preneoplastic polyps or inflammatory bowel disease. There are concerns that many LGIEs are performed on low-risk patients with limited benefit.

AIMS

To determine the diagnostic outcomes of LGIE for common symptoms.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study of diagnostic LGIE between March 2019 and February 2020 using the UK National Endoscopy Database. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models, incorporating random (endoscopist) and fixed (symptoms, patient age, and sex) effects upon two dependent variables (large polyp [≥10 mm] and cancer diagnosis). Adjusted positive predictive values (aPPVs) were calculated.

RESULTS

We analysed 384,510 LGIEs; 33.2% were performed on patients aged under 50 and 53.6% on women. Regarding colonoscopies, the unadjusted PPV for cancer was 1.5% (95% CI: 1.4-1.5); higher for men than women (1.9% vs. 1.1%, p < 0.01). The PPV for large polyps was 3.2% (95% CI: 3.1-3.2). The highest colonoscopy cancer aPPVs were in the over 50s (1.9%) and in those with rectal bleeding (2.5%) or anaemia (2.1%). Cancer aPPVs for other symptoms were <1% despite representing 54.3% of activity. In patients under 50, aPPVs were 0.4% for cancer and 1.6% for large polyps. Results were similar for sigmoidoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

Most colonoscopies were performed on patients with low-risk symptoms, where cancer risk was similar to the general population. Cancer and large polyp yield was highest in elderly patients with rectal bleeding or anaemia, although still fell short of FIT-based screening yields.

The Time to Inflammatory Bowel Disease Diagnosis for Patients Presenting with Abdominal Symptoms in Primary Care and its Association with Emergency Hospital Admissions and Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) presenting to primary care may experience diagnostic delays. We aimed to evaluate this and assess whether time to diagnosis is associated with clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using English primary care data from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, linked to hospital admission data was undertaken. Patients were followed from the first IBD-related presentation in primary care to IBD diagnosis. Associations of time to diagnosis exceeding a year were assessed using a Robust Poisson regression model. Associations between time to diagnosis and IBD-related emergency hospital admissions and surgery were assessed using Poisson and Cox proportional hazards models, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 28 092 IBD patients, 60% had ulcerative colitis (UC) and 40% had Crohn's disease (CD). The median age was 43 (interquartile range, 30-58) years and 51.9% were female. Median time to diagnosis was 15.6 (interquartile range, 4.3-28.1) months. Factors associated with more than a year to diagnosis included female sex (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.23; 95% CI, 1.21-1.26), older age (aRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10; comparing >70 years of age with 18-30 years of age), obesity (aRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06), smoking (aRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08), CD compared with UC (aRR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.11-1.16), and a fecal calprotectin over 500 μg/g (aRR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.95). The highest quartile of time to diagnosis compared with the lowest was associated with IBD-related emergency admissions (incidence rate ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.11).

CONCLUSION

Longer times to IBD diagnoses were associated with being female, advanced age, obesity, smoking, and Crohn's disease. More IBD-related emergency admissions were observed in patients with a prolonged time to diagnosis.

Variation in proliferative and cell cycle markers in Barrett's esophagus in relation to circumferential and axial location in the esophagus

BACKGROUND

Adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus (BE) occurs more frequently between 12 and 3 o'clock at the gastroesophageal junction (GEJ).

METHODS

BE patients were prospectively recruited from December 2013 to July 2016. Expression of p53, Ki-67, cyclin-D1, COX-2 and p21 was assessed in quadrantic biopsies from the proximal and distal margins of the BE segments. Cell cycle marker association with current or subsequent dysplasia or adenocarcinoma was examined.

RESULTS

110 patients: median age 64 (IQR, 56-71) years; median BE segment length C4M6; and a median follow-up of 4.7 (IQR, 3.6-5.7) years. In total 13 (11.8%) had evidence of dysplasia or neoplasia (2.7% indefinite for dysplasia, 5.5% low grade, 1.8% high grade and 1.8% adenocarcinoma) at index endoscopy. Six (7%) developed dysplasia or neoplasia (1 low grade, 2 high grade and 3 adenocarcinoma) during follow-up. Ki-67 expression was highest at 3 o'clock, and overall was 49.6% higher in the 12-6 o'clock position compared to 6-12 o'clock [odds ratio (OR), 1.42 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00-2.12)]. A similar pattern was found with p21 [1.82 (1.00-3.47)]. There was increased expression of several markers in distal BE biopsies; cyclin-D1 [1.74 (1.29-2.34)]; Cyclo-oxygenase 2 [2.03 (1.48-2.78]) and p21 [2.06 (1.16-3.68)]. Expression of Ki-67 was lower in distal compared to proximal biopsies [0.58 (0.43-0.78)]. P53 expression had high specificity (93.8%) for subsequent low-grade dysplasia, high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma.

CONCLUSION

Increased cellular proliferation was seen at 12-6 o'clock at the GEJ. Cell-cycle marker expression was increased at the GEJ compared to the proximal BE segment. These findings mirror reflux esophagitis and suggest ongoing reflux contributes to the progression of dysplasia and malignancy in BE.

Umbrella systematic review of potential quality indicators for the detection of dysplasia and cancer at upper gastrointestinal endoscopy

Background and study aims Upper gastrointestinal (UGI) endoscopy lacks established quality indicators. We conducted an umbrella systematic review of potential quality indicators for the detection of UGI cancer and dysplasia. Methods Bibliographic databases were searched up to December 2021 for systematic reviews and primary studies. Studies reporting diagnostic accuracy, detection rates or the association of endoscopy or endoscopist-related factors with UGI cancer or dysplasia detection were included. AMSTAR2 and JBI checklists were used to assess systematic review and primary study quality. Clinical heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis and findings are summarized narratively. Results Eight systematic reviews and nine primary studies were included. Image enhancement, especially narrow band imaging, had high diagnostic accuracy for dysplasia and early gastric cancer (pooled sensitivity 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.89) and specificity 0.97 (0.97-0.98)). Higher detection rates with longer endoscopy examination times were reported in three studies, but no difference was observed in one study. Endoscopist biopsy rate was associated with increased gastric cancer detection (odds ratio 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1-2.9). Early esophageal cancer (0.17% vs 0.14%, P =0.04) and gastric cancer (0.16% vs 0.12%, P =0.02) detection rates were higher with propofol sedation compared to no sedation. Endoscopies performed by trained endoscopists on dedicated Barrett's surveillance lists had higher detection rates (8% vs 3%, P <0.001). The neoplasia detection rate during diagnostic endoscopies for Barrett's esophagus was 7% (95% CI 4%-10%). Conclusions Image enhancement use, longer examination times, biopsy rate and propofol sedation are potential quality indicators for UGI endoscopy. Neoplasia detection rate and dedicated endoscopy lists are additional potential quality indicators for Barrett's esophagus.

Diagnosis and treatment for gastro-oesophageal cancer in England and Wales: analysis of the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit (NOGCA) database 2012–2020

Background

The National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit (NOGCA) captures patient data from diagnosis to end of primary treatment for all patients with oesophagogastric (OG) cancer in England and Wales. This study assessed changes in patient characteristics, treatments received, and outcomes for OG cancer surgery for the period 2012–2020, and examined which factors may have led to changes in clinical outcomes over this time.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with OG cancer between April 2012 and March 2020 were included. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize patient demographics, disease site, type, and stage, patterns of care, and outcomes over time. The treatment variables of unit case volume, surgical approach, and neoadjuvant therapy were included. Regression models were used to examine associations between surgical outcomes (duration of stay and mortality), and patient and treatment variables.

Results

In total, 83 393 patients diagnosed with OG cancer during the study period were included. Patient demographics and cancer stage at diagnosis showed little change over time. Altogether, 17 650 patients underwent surgery as part of radical treatment. These patients had increasingly more advanced cancers, and a greater likelihood of pre-existing comorbidity in more recent years. Significant decreases in mortality rates and duration of stay were noted, along with improvements in oncological outcomes (nodal yields and margin positivity rates). Following adjustment for patient and treatment variables, increasing audit year and trust volume were associated, respectively, with improved postoperative outcomes: lower 30-day mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.93 (95 per cent c.i. 0.88 to 0.98) and OR 0.99 (95 per cent c.i. 0.99–0.99)) and lower 90-day mortality (OR 0.94 (95 per cent c.i. 0.91 to 0.98) and OR 0.99 (95 per cent c.i. 0.99–0.99)), and a reduction in duration of postoperative stay (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.98 (95 per cent c.i. 0.97 to 0.98) and IRR 0.99 (95 per cent c.i. 0.99 to 0.99)).

Conclusion

Outcomes of OG cancer surgery have improved over time, despite little evidence of improvements in early diagnosis. The underlying drivers for improvements in outcome are multifactorial.

Randomised, placebo-controlled trial and meta-analysis show benefit of ondansetron for irritable bowel syndrome with diarrhoea: The TRITON trial

BACKGROUND

Ondansetron may be beneficial in irritable bowel syndrome with diarrhoea (IBS-D).

AIM

To conduct a 12-week parallel group, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of ondansetron 4 mg o.d. (titrated up to 8 mg t.d.s.) in 400 IBS-D patients.

PRIMARY ENDPOINT

% responders using the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) composite endpoint. Secondary and mechanistic endpoints included stool consistency (Bristol Stool Form Scale) and whole gut transit time (WGTT). After literature review, results were pooled with other placebo-controlled trials in a meta-analysis to estimate relative risks (RR), 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and number needed to treat (NNT).

RESULTS

Eighty patients were randomised. On intention-to-treat analysis, 15/37 (40.5%; 95% CI 24.7%-56.4%) met the primary endpoint on ondansetron versus 12/43 (27.9%; 95% CI 14.5%-41.3%) on placebo (p = 0.19). Ondansetron improved stool consistency compared with placebo (adjusted mean difference - 0.7; 95% CI -1.0 to-0.3, p < 0.001). Ondansetron increased WGTT between baseline and week 12 (mean (SD) difference 3.8 (9.1) hours, versus placebo -2.2 (10.3) hours, p = 0.01). Meta-analysis of 327 patients from this, and two similar trials, demonstrated ondansetron was superior to placebo for the FDA composite endpoint (RR of symptoms not responding = 0.86; 95% CI 0.75-0.98, NNT = 9) and stool response (RR = 0.65; 95% CI 0.52-0.82, NNT = 5), but not abdominal pain response (RR = 0.95; 95% CI 0.74-1.20).

CONCLUSIONS

Although small numbers meant the primary endpoint was not met in this trial, when pooled with other similar trials meta-analysis suggests ondansetron improves stool consistency and reduces days with loose stool and urgency. Trial registration - http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN17508514.

The AUGIS Survival Predictor: Prediction of Long-Term and Conditional Survival After Esophagectomy Using Random Survival Forests

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for overall survival after esophagectomy using pre/postoperative clinical data and machine learning.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

For patients with esophageal cancer, accurately predicting long-term survival after esophagectomy is challenging. This study investigated survival prediction after esophagectomy using a RandomSurvival Forest (RSF) model derived from routine data from a large, well-curated, national dataset.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with esophageal adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma between 2012 and 2018 in England and Wales who underwent an esophagectomy were included. Prediction models for overall survival were developed using the RSF method and Cox regression from 41 patient and disease characteristics. Calibration and discrimination (time-dependent area under the curve) were validated internally using bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

The study analyzed 6399 patients, with 2625 deaths during follow-up. Median follow-up was 41 months. Overall survival was 47.1% at 5 years. The final RSF model included 14 variables and had excellent discrimination with a 5-year time-dependent area under the receiver operator curve of 83.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 82.6%-84.9%], compared to 82.3% (95% CI 81.1%-83.3%) for the Cox model. The most important variables were lymph node involvement, pT stage, circumferential resection margin involvement (tumor at < 1 mm from cut edge) and age. There was a wide range of survival estimates even within TNM staging groups, with quintiles of prediction within Stage 3b ranging from 12.2% to 44.7% survival at 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

An RSF model for long-term survival after esophagectomy exhibited excellent discrimination and well-calibrated predictions. At a patient level, it provides more accuracy than TNM staging alone and could help in the delivery of tailored treatment and follow-up.

The risk of subsequent surgery following bowel resection for Crohn's disease in a national cohort of 19 207 patients

AIM

Surgery is required for most patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and further surgery may be necessary if medical treatment fails to control disease activity. The aim of this study was to characterize the risk of, and factors associated with, further surgery following a first resection for Crohn's disease.

METHODS

Hospital Episode Statistics from England were examined to identify patients with CD and a first recorded bowel resection between 2007 and 2016. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine risk factors for further resectional surgery within 5 years. Prevalence-adjusted surgical rates for index CD surgery over the study period were calculated.

RESULTS

In total, 19 207 patients (median age 39 years, interquartile range 27-53 years; 55% women) with CD underwent a first recorded resection during the study period. 3141 (16%) underwent a further operation during the study period. The median time to further surgery was 2.4 (interquartile range 1.2-4.6) years. 3% of CD patients had further surgery within 1 year, 14% by 5 years and 23% by 10 years. Older age (≥58), index laparoscopic surgery and index elective surgery (adjusted OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.54-0.77; 0.77, 0.67-0.88; and 0.77, 0.69-0.85; respectively) were associated with a reduced risk of further surgery by 5 years. Prior surgery for perianal disease (1.60, 1.37-1.87), an extraintestinal manifestation of CD (1.51, 1.22-1.86) and index surgery in a high-volume centre for CD surgery (1.20, 1.02-1.40) were associated with an increased risk of further surgery by 5 years. A 25% relative and 0.3% absolute reduction in prevalence-adjusted index surgery rates for CD was observed over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Further surgery following an index operation is common in CD. This risk was particularly seen in patients with perianal disease, extraintestinal manifestations and those who underwent index surgery in a high-volume centre.

Improving 30-day mortality after PEG tube placement in England from 2007 to 2019: a retrospective national cohort analysis of 87,862 patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

PEG has been associated with poor case selection and high mortality. We examined indications, 30-day mortality, and 7-day adverse events in a national cohort undergoing PEG tube insertion.

METHODS

Adult patients undergoing their first PEG tube insertion from 2007 to 2019 were identified in the Hospital Episode Statistics database. Indications and adverse events were identified using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision codes. Multivariable logistic regression modeling examined factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

Of 87,682 patients identified, 58% were men and median age was 69 years (interquartile range, 57-79). The number of patients with dementia or stroke as the indication for PEG fell from 2007 to 2019 (dementia, from 147 to 28 [P < .001]; stroke, from 2851 to 1781 [P < .001]). The median interval from stroke admission to PEG tube insertion increased from 21 (interquartile range, 12-36) to 28 (interquartile range, 13-45) days (P < .001). Aspiration pneumonia within 7 days of PEG fell from 10.2% to 8.6% (P = .04). Thirty-day mortality fell from 13.2% to 5.3% (P < .001), with associated factors of increasing age (≥82 years quintile odds ratio [OR], 4.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.01-4.92), PEG tube insertion during emergency admission (OR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.97-2.25), Charlson comorbidity score ≥5 (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.53-1.82), and dementia (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.26-1.71). Female sex (OR, .81; 95% CI, .77-.85), least-deprived quintile (OR, .88; 95% CI, .81-.95), and more recent years of PEG tube insertion (2019; OR, .44; 95% CI, .39-.51) were negatively associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Thirty-day mortality after PEG tube insertion has fallen 60% over 13 years. Dementia or stroke as an indication for PEG fell, and the time interval from stroke to PEG tube insertion increased. These findings may be attributable to improved patient selection and timing for PEG tube insertion.

The association between inflammatory bowel disease and mental ill health: a retrospective cohort study using data from UK primary care

BACKGROUND

Patients with active inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and mental illnesses experience worse IBD outcomes.

AIM

To describe the incidence of mental illnesses, including deliberate self-harm, in IBD patients.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective cohort study using IQVIA medical research data of a primary care database covering the whole UK, between January 1995 and January 2021. IBD patients of all ages were matched 4:1 by demographics and primary care practice to unexposed controls. Following exclusion of patients with mental ill health at study entry, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of developing depression, anxiety, deliberate self-harm, severe mental illness and insomnia were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

We included 48,799 incident IBD patients: 28,352 with ulcerative colitis and 20,447 with Crohn's disease. Incidence rate ratios of mental illness were higher in IBD patients than controls (all p < 0.001): deliberate self-harm 1.31 (95% CI 1.16-1.47), anxiety 1.17 (1.11-1.24), depression 1.36 (1.31-1.42) and insomnia 1.62 (1.54-1.69). Patients with Crohn's disease were more likely to develop deliberate self-harm HR 1.51 (95% CI 1.28-1.78), anxiety 1.38 (1.16-1.65), depression 1.36 (1.26-1.47) and insomnia 1.74 (1.62-1.86). Patients with IBD are at increased risk of deliberate self-harm (HR 1.20 [1.07-1.35]). The incidence rate ratios of mental illnesses were particularly high during the first year following IBD diagnosis: anxiety 1.28 (1.13-1.46), depression 1.62 (1.48-1.77) and insomnia 1.99 (1.78-2.21).

CONCLUSION

Deliberate self-harm, depression, anxiety and insomnia were more frequent among patients with IBD. IBD is independently associated with an increased risk of deliberate self-harm.

Assessment of the role of the Edinburgh dysphagia score in referral triage in a national service evaluation of the urgent suspected upper gastrointestinal cancer pathway

BACKGROUND

The British Society of Gastroenterology has recommended the Edinburgh Dysphagia Score (EDS) to risk-stratify dysphagia referrals during the endoscopy COVID recovery phase.

AIMS

External validation of the diagnostic accuracy of EDS and exploration of potential changes to improve its diagnostic performance.

METHODS

A prospective multicentre study of consecutive patients referred with dysphagia on an urgent suspected upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer pathway between May 2020 and February 2021. The sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) of EDS were calculated. Variables associated with UGI cancer were identified by forward stepwise logistic regression and a modified Cancer Dysphagia Score (CDS) developed.

RESULTS

1301 patients were included from 19 endoscopy providers; 43% male; median age 62 (IQR 51-73) years. 91 (7%) UGI cancers were diagnosed, including 80 oesophageal, 10 gastric and one duodenal cancer. An EDS ≥3.5 had a sensitivity of 96.7 (95% CI 90.7-99.3)% and an NPV of 99.3 (97.8-99.8)%. Age, male sex, progressive dysphagia and unintentional weight loss >3 kg were positively associated and acid reflux and localisation to the neck were negatively associated with UGI cancer. Dysphagia duration <6 months utilised in EDS was replaced with progressive dysphagia in CDS. CDS ≥5.5 had a sensitivity of 97.8 (92.3-99.7)% and NPV of 99.5 (98.1-99.9)%. Area under receiver operating curve was 0.83 for CDS, compared to 0.81 for EDS.

CONCLUSIONS

In a national cohort, the EDS has high sensitivity and NPV as a triage tool for UGI cancer. The CDS offers even higher diagnostic accuracy. The EDS or CDS should be incorporated into the urgent suspected UGI cancer pathway.

P093 Prevalence and incidence of Behçet’s Disease in England: A multicentre retrospective observational study

Background/Aims

Behçet’s disease (BD) is a rare multisystem auto-inflammatory disorder. In England the incidence is estimated between 0.38 per 100,000 in the population, however, the actual incidence of BD in U.K. is unknown. The prevalence is estimated to be 14.61 (95% CI 13.35-15.88) per 100 000 population in 2017 but the read codes from the THIN network were not validated, thereby potentially causing an overestimate. The study aims to understand the epidemiology of BD in England using primary and secondary data

Methods

1. Annual incidence rate per million person years will be calculated stratified by age, gender and ethnicity 2. Point prevalence will be calculated at the midpoint of the study stratified by age, gender and ethnicity 3. Establish phenotypes and their clusters 4. To identify treatments and outcomes of BD (multi-system morbidity and mortality) 5. The time to diagnosis 6. Equity of access to biologic treatment for BD 7. Identify risk factors for BD. Case ascertainment sources include primary care data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink and secondary care data from the CRPD linked Hospital Episode Statistics. In order to validate the diagnosis of BD in CRPD, data will be triangulated by scrutinising the HES within Sandwell & West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust. A list of ICD-10 codes for BD, its complications and treatments needing admission will be used to identify those with BD. The findings will be compared and contrasted to the data from the Birmingham Centre of Excellence using the same codes. The validity of the HES data will be ascertained by comparing proportions of diagnostic and treatment codes within the two data sets.

Results

We have conducted a pilot study of the clinical characteristics of those with BD treated at the Birmingham Centre of Excellence between July 2012 and July 2018. The average age of this group was 44 years (SD 11.5). 109 patients were male (36.8%) and 199 (67.2%) were Caucasian. Men presented at a younger age ( 41.9 years compared with 45.2 years for females) and were less likely to experience genital ulceration and musculoskeletal symptoms. 96 (32.4%) patients were currently receiving or had previously received monoclonal antibody therapy. Men on average had a higher Transformed Index score of 7(3-8) (p = 0.0025) and younger age (OR 0.96; 95% CI 0.93-100) and being female (OR 0.30; 95% CI 0.12-0.69) were associated with lower disease activity.

Conclusion

To our knowledge, this is the largest population based study of the incidence and prevalence of BD in the UK. It will also be the first study in BD to ascertain diagnostic validity by scrutinising routinely collected clinical data and to describe disease evolution over time in order to better design health services to cater to these needs.

Disclosure

P. Chandratre: None. J. Chandan: None. M. Hunjan: None. N. Trudgill: None. R. Moots: None. F. Fortune: None. R. Situnayake: None.

Impact of postoperative chemotherapy on survival for oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma after preoperative chemotherapy and surgery

BACKGROUND

Perioperative chemotherapy is widely used in the treatment of oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (OGAC) with a substantial survival benefit over surgery alone. However, the postoperative part of these regimens is given in less than half of patients, reflecting uncertainty among clinicians about its benefit and poor postoperative patient fitness. This study estimated the effect of postoperative chemotherapy after surgery for OGAC using a large population-based data set.

METHODS

Patients with adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus, gastro-oesophageal junction or stomach diagnosed between 2012 and 2018, who underwent preoperative chemotherapy followed by surgery, were identified from a national-level audit in England and Wales. Postoperative therapy was defined as the receipt of systemic chemotherapy within 90 days of surgery. The effectiveness of postoperative chemotherapy compared with observation was estimated using inverse propensity treatment weighting.

RESULTS

Postoperative chemotherapy was given to 1593 of 4139 patients (38.5 per cent) included in the study. Almost all patients received platinum-based triplet regimens (4004 patients, 96.7 per cent), with FLOT used in 3.3 per cent. Patients who received postoperative chemotherapy were younger, with a lower ASA grade, and were less likely to have surgical complications, with similar tumour characteristics. After weighting, the median survival time after postoperative chemotherapy was 62.7 months compared with 50.4 months without chemotherapy (hazard ratio 0.84, 95 per cent c.i. 0.77 to 0.94; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This study has shown that postoperative chemotherapy improves overall survival in patients with OGAC treated with preoperative chemotherapy and surgery.

P-OGC15 Impact of postoperative systemic treatment on survival for oesophageal adenocarcinoma after preoperative chemotherapy and oesophagectomy

Background

Perioperative chemotherapy is widely used in the treatment of oesophageal cancer with substantial survival benefit over surgery alone. However, the postoperative part of these regimens is given in less than half of cases, reflecting uncertainty about its benefit. This study estimates the effect of postoperative chemotherapy after surgery for oesophageal cancer using a large population-based dataset and modern statistical methods.

Methods

Patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma diagnosed between 2012 and 2018 and underwent preoperative chemotherapy followed by surgery, were identified from a national level audit in England and Wales (National Oesophagogastric Cancer Audit). Postoperative therapy was defined as the receipt of at least one cycle of systemic chemotherapy within 90 days of surgery. The comparative effectiveness of postoperative chemotherapy compared to observation was estimated using inverse propensity treatment weighting (IPTW).

Results

The study included 2,814 patients, in whom postoperative therapy was given to 1,054 (37.5%). Patients who received postoperative therapy were younger, with a lower ASA grade and were less likely to have surgical complications of any type, including anastomotic leak (all p &lt; 0.001). Tumour characteristics were similar in both groups. Weighted median survival times for patients having no treatment or postoperative chemotherapy were 45.4 months and 57.5 months respectively. There was a life expectancy difference at five years of 2.9 months in favour of postoperative chemotherapy (95%CI 1.1–4.8 months, p &lt; 0.001) with a Hazard Ratio of 0.80 (95%CI 0.70-0.91, p &lt; 0.001).

Conclusions

Among patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma treated with preoperative chemotherapy and surgery, improved overall survival was observed in those patients who received postoperative chemotherapy. Minimising surgical complications and improving patient fitness could increase the use of postoperative chemotherapy, leading to better outcomes for patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma. 

The outcomes of emergency hospital admissions with non-malignant upper gastrointestinal bleeding in England between 2003 and 2015

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common medical emergency with significant mortality. Despite developments in endoscopic and clinical management, only minor improvements in outcomes have been reported.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with non-malignant UGIB emergency admissions in England between 2003 and 2015, using Hospital Episode Statistics. Multilevel logistic regression analysis examined the associations with mortality.

RESULTS

242 796 patients with an UGIB admission were identified (58.8 % men; median age 70 [interquartile range (IQR) 53 - 81]). Between 2003 and 2015, falls occurred in both 30-day mortality (7.5 % to 7.0 %; P < 0.001) and age-standardized mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.74, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.69 - 0.80; P < 0.001), including from variceal bleeding (OR 0.63, 95 %CI 0.45 - 0.87; P < 0.005). Increasing co-morbidity (Charlson score > 5, OR 2.94, 95 %CI 2.85 - 3.04; P < 0.001), older age (> 83 years, OR 6.50, 95 %CI 6.09 - 6.94; P < 0.001), variceal bleeding (OR 2.03, 95 %CI 1.89 - 2.18; P < 0.001), and a weekend admission (Sunday, OR 1.18, 95 %CI 1.12 - 1.23; P < 0.001) were associated with 30-day mortality. Of deaths at 30 days, 8.9 % were from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and the cardiovascular age-standardized mortality rate following UGIB was high (IHD deaths within 1 year, 1188.4 [95 %CI 1036.8 - 1353.8] per 100 000 men in 2003).

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2003 and 2015, 30-day mortality among emergency admissions with non-malignant UGIB fell by 0.5 % to 7.0 %. Mortality was higher among UGIB admissions at the weekend, with important implications for service provision. Patients with UGIB had a much greater risk of subsequently dying from cardiovascular disease and addressing this risk is a key management step in UGIB.

Pancreaticobiliary endoscopic ultrasound in England 2007 to 2016: Changing practice and outcomes

Background and study aims  Population-level data on the outcomes of pancreaticobiliary endoscopic ultrasound (PB-EUS) are limited. We examined national PB-EUS and fine-needle aspiration (FNA) activity, its relation to pancreatic cancer therapy, associated mortality and adverse events. Patients and methods  Adults undergoing PB-EUS in England from 2007-2016 were identified in Hospital Episode Statistics. A pancreatic cancer cohort diagnosed within 6 months of PB-EUS were studied separately. Multivariable logistic regression models examined associations with 30-day mortality and therapies for pancreatic cancer. Results  79,269 PB-EUS in 68,908 subjects were identified. Annual numbers increased from 2,874 (28 % FNA) to 12,752 (35 % FNA) from 2007 to 2016. 8,840 subjects (13 %) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Sedation related adverse events were coded in 0.5 % and emergency admission with acute pancreatitis in 0.2 % within 48 hours of PB-EUS. 1.5 % of subjects died within 30 days of PB-EUS. Factors associated with 30-day mortality included increasing age (odds ratio 1.03 [95 % CI 1.03-1.04]); male sex (1.38 [1.24-1.56]); increasing comorbidity (1.49 [1.27-1.74]); EUS-FNA (2.26 [1.98-2.57]); pancreatic cancer (1.39 [1.19-1.62]); increasing deprivation (least deprived quintile 0.76 [0.62-0.93]) and lower provider PB-EUS volume (2.83 [2.15-3.73]). Factors associated with surgical resection in the pancreatic cancer cohort included lower provider PB-EUS volume (0.44 [0.26-0.74]) and the least deprived subjects (1.33 [1.12-1.57]). 33 % of pancreatic cancer subjects who underwent EUS, did not subsequently receive active cancer treatment. Conclusions  Lower provider PB-EUS volume was associated with higher 30-day mortality and reduced rates of both pancreatic cancer surgery and chemotherapy. These results suggest potential issues with case selection in lower-volume EUS providers.

Prediction of long-term survival after gastrectomy using random survival forests

BACKGROUND

No well validated and contemporaneous tools for personalized prognostication of gastric adenocarcinoma exist. This study aimed to derive and validate a prognostic model for overall survival after surgery for gastric adenocarcinoma using a large national dataset.

METHODS

National audit data from England and Wales were used to identify patients who underwent a potentially curative gastrectomy for adenocarcinoma of the stomach. A total of 2931 patients were included and 29 clinical and pathological variables were considered for their impact on survival. A non-linear random survival forest methodology was then trained and validated internally using bootstrapping with calibration and discrimination (time-dependent area under the receiver operator curve (tAUC)) assessed.

RESULTS

The median survival of the cohort was 69 months, with a 5-year survival of 53.2 per cent. Ten variables were found to influence survival significantly and were included in the final model, with the most important being lymph node positivity, pT stage and achieving an R0 resection. Patient characteristics including ASA grade and age were also influential. On validation the model achieved excellent performance with a 5-year tAUC of 0.80 (95 per cent c.i. 0.78 to 0.82) and good agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities. A wide spread of predictions for 3-year (14.8-98.3 (i.q.r. 43.2-84.4) per cent) and 5-year (9.4-96.1 (i.q.r. 31.7-73.8) per cent) survival were seen.

CONCLUSIONS

A prognostic model for survival after a potentially curative resection for gastric adenocarcinoma was derived and exhibited excellent discrimination and calibration of predictions.

The Risk of Later Diagnosis of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Patients With Dermatological Disorders Associated With Inflammatory Bowel Disease

BACKGROUND

Dermatological conditions such as erythema nodosum (EN), pyoderma gangrenosum, Sweet's syndrome, and aphthous stomatitis can occur with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and are considered dermatological extraintestinal manifestations (D-EIMs). Rarely, they may precede IBD. Other common conditions such as psoriasis have also been associated with IBD. This study examined the risk of a subsequent IBD diagnosis in patients presenting with a D-EIM.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study compared patients with D-EIMs and age-/sex-matched patients without D-EIMs. Hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, deprivation, comorbidity, smoking, loperamide use, anemia, and lower gastrointestinal symptoms. Logistic regression was used to produce a prediction model for the diagnosis of IBD within 3 years of EN diagnosis.

RESULTS

We matched 7447 patients with D-EIMs (74% female; median age 38 years (interquartile ratio [IQR], 24-65 years) to 29,297 patients without D-EIMs. We observed 131 (1.8%) subsequent IBD diagnoses in patients with D-EIMs compared with 65 (0.2%) in those without D-EIMs. Median time to IBD diagnosis was 205 days (IQR, 44-661 days) in those with D-EIMs and 1594 days (IQR, 693-2841 days) in those without D-EIMs. The adjusted HR for a later diagnosis of IBD was 6.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.53-8.37; P < 0.001), for ulcerative colitis the HR was 3.30 (95% CI, 1.98-5.53; P < 0.001), and for Crohn's disease the HR was 8.54 (95% CI, 5.74-12.70; P < 0.001). Patients with psoriasis had a 34% increased risk of a subsequent IBD diagnosis compared with the matched control patients (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.20-1.51; P < 0.001). We included 4043 patients with an incident EN diagnosis in the prediction model cohort, with 87 patients (2.2%) diagnosed with IBD within 3 years. The model had a bias-corrected c-statistic of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.78-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with D-EIMs have a 6-fold increased risk of a later diagnosis of IBD. Younger age, smoking, low body mass index, anemia, and lower gastrointestinal symptoms were associated with an increased risk of diagnosis of IBD within 3 years in patients with EN.

The mechanisms associated with reflux episodes in ambulant subjects with gastro-esophageal reflux disease

BACKGROUND

The mechanisms associated with gastro-esophageal reflux (GER) episodes were studied using combined High-resolution Impedance Manometry (HRIM) and pH monitoring in ambulant subjects with different patterns of GERD.

METHODS

Sixteen subjects with mild-moderate esophagitis (Los Angeles (LA) grade A&B) (group A) and 11 subjects with severe esophagitis (LA grade C&D) or Barrett's esophagus (BE) were studied before and after a meal, resting, while walking, and during standardized exercise, using a HRIM and a pH probe.

KEY RESULTS

Post-prandial acid GER episodes were more common in group B (median 10 range (3-18) vs A (6.5 (0-18), p = 0.048). Postprandial acid clearance time was much longer in group B (median 0.71( 0.07-2.66 min) vs A (0.17 (0.04-2.44 min), p = 0.02). Transient lower esophageal sphincter relaxation (TLESR) was the most frequent mechanism associated with GER episodes in both groups. Post-prandial TLESRs with GER were more common in group B (median 17 (9-24) vs A 13.5 (7-34), p = 0.014), particularly during exercise (B 8 (6-9) vs A 6 (5-6.8), p = 0.007). Post-prandially TLESR with acid reflux increased during exercise in both groups (A rest median 2.4 (0-6.4) per hour vs exercise 4.7 (0-17.3), p = 0.005 and B 4 (0.8-9.6) vs 5.3 (2.7-13.3) per hour, p = 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS AND INFERENCES

TLESR was the most common mechanism associated with reflux episodes in all subjects. Acid reflux episodes were more common in subjects with severe esophagitis or BE and esophageal acid clearance was much slower. Post-prandial exercise increased TLESR with acid reflux and GERD patients should be encouraged to avoid exercise immediately after a meal.

The UK physician workforce: one-third at increased risk of death from COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

21% of NHS staff are from Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) backgrounds yet account for a disproportionately high number of medical-staff deaths from COVID-19. Using data from the published OpenSAFELY Collaborative, we analysed consultant physicians to determine those at increased risk of COVID-19 related death.

METHODS

Data from 13,500 consultant physicians collected by the Royal College of Physicians were analysed to determine those at an increased risk of death from COVID-19, assuming no comorbidities.

RESULTS

The data reveal a picture in which a third of consultant physicians have a hazard ratio (HR) >1 for dying from COVID-19; one in five have HR >2; one in 11, HR >3; and one in 40, HR >4. Of concern are the risks to male physicians aged ≥60 with HR >3.8. Sub-specialties including cardiology, endocrine and diabetes, gastroenterology, haematology, neurology and rheumatology have a greater risk profile due to high proportion of men, physicians of older age, and proportion of BAME individuals.

CONCLUSION

A third of consultant physicians have an increased risk of a COVID-19-related death, and one in five have a higher relative risk (HR >2). The risk is mainly driven by age, gender, and ethnicity, the risk is highest in male consultant physicians over 60, especially from BAME backgrounds.

The mechanisms associated with reflux episodes in ambulant subjects with gastro-esophageal reflux disease

BACKGROUND

The mechanisms associated with gastro-esophageal reflux (GER) episodes were studied using combined High-resolution Impedance Manometry (HRIM) and pH monitoring in ambulant subjects with different patterns of GERD.

METHODS

Sixteen subjects with mild-moderate esophagitis (Los Angeles (LA) grade A&B) (group A) and 11 subjects with severe esophagitis (LA grade C&D) or Barrett's esophagus (BE) were studied before and after a meal, resting, while walking, and during standardized exercise, using a HRIM and a pH probe.

KEY RESULTS

Post-prandial acid GER episodes were more common in group B (median 10 range (3-18) vs A (6.5 (0-18), p = 0.048). Postprandial acid clearance time was much longer in group B (median 0.71( 0.07-2.66 min) vs A (0.17 (0.04-2.44 min), p = 0.02). Transient lower esophageal sphincter relaxation (TLESR) was the most frequent mechanism associated with GER episodes in both groups. Post-prandial TLESRs with GER were more common in group B (median 17 (9-24) vs A 13.5 (7-34), p = 0.014), particularly during exercise (B 8 (6-9) vs A 6 (5-6.8), p = 0.007). Post-prandially TLESR with acid reflux increased during exercise in both groups (A rest median 2.4 (0-6.4) per hour vs exercise 4.7 (0-17.3), p = 0.005 and B 4 (0.8-9.6) vs 5.3 (2.7-13.3) per hour, p = 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS AND INFERENCES

TLESR was the most common mechanism associated with reflux episodes in all subjects. Acid reflux episodes were more common in subjects with severe esophagitis or BE and esophageal acid clearance was much slower. Post-prandial exercise increased TLESR with acid reflux and GERD patients should be encouraged to avoid exercise immediately after a meal.

The Outcomes of Emergency Admissions With Ulcerative Colitis Between 2007 and 2017 in England

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with ulcerative colitis [UC] may present as emergencies and require rapid escalation of therapy. This study aimed to assess the mortality, colectomy, and readmission risks, during and following a first emergency admission with UC.

METHODS

Using Hospital Episode Statistics, subjects aged between 18 and 60 years, coded with a first emergency admission with UC, were identified between 2007 and 2017. Influences of demographic factors, comorbidity, anti-tumour necrosis factor [TNF] therapy, and provider UC activity on mortality and colectomy were examined.

RESULTS

A total of 10 051 subjects (46% female; median age 33 years [interquartile range [IQR] 25-44]) were identified. Mortality was 0.2% in hospital and 0.5% at 12 months and, following colectomy during acute admission, it was 1.4% in hospital and 2.1% at 12 months. Females had reduced risk of colectomy during admission: odds ratio [OR] 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-0.85). Comparing the period 2007-2011 with 2012-2017, the rate of colectomy fell during acute admissions: OR 0.85 [0.72-0.99], p = 0.038 and at 12 months after admission: OR 0.73 [0.61-0.87]. Anti-TNF therapy increased 4-fold in acute UC admissions from 2007-2017. Those receiving anti-TNF therapy had a 70% increased risk of colectomy during index admission compared with those not receiving anti-TNF: OR 1.72 [1.29-2.31]. Increased time to colectomy during first admission was associated with female sex: hazard ratio [HR] 0.84 [0.72-0.98] and Asian ethnicity: HR 0.61 [0.44-0.85], whereas reduced time was associated with increased comorbidity, lower deprivation, and high provider volume of colectomies for UC: HR 1.59 [1.31-1.93].

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality following colectomy was 1.4% in hospital and 2.1% at 12 months, and no significant change over time was observed. Colectomy during emergency admission for UC was less common in females. Rates of anti-TNF therapy during emergency admission for UC have increased and overall colectomy rates have fallen.

PODCAST

This article has an associated podcast which can be accessed at https://academic.oup.com/ecco-jcc/pages/podcast.

Changing patterns in the epidemiology and outcomes of inflammatory bowel disease in the United Kingdom: 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Data regarding incidence, prevalence and long-term outcomes of inflammatory bowel diseases in the UK are limited or outdated.

AIMS

To investigate incidence and prevalence of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis and risk of colorectal cancer and all-cause mortality in these diseases.

METHODS

Inflammatory bowel disease cases between 2000 and 2018 were identified from a national primary care database. Inflammatory bowel disease prevalence was forecast until 2025. The association between inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer and all-cause mortality was investigated using age/sex-matched retrospective cohort studies. Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, comorbidity, smoking status and body mass index.

RESULTS

Ulcerative colitis prevalence increased from 390 to 570 per 100 000 population from 2000 to 2017. Prevalence of Crohn's disease increased from 220 to 400 per 100 000. In 2017 male Crohn's disease prevalence was 0.35% (95% confidence interval 0.34-0.36); female prevalence was 0.44% (0.43-0.45). Prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease is predicted to be 1.1% by 2025. Incidence of ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease was 23.2 (22.8-23.6) and 14.3 (14.0-14.7) per 100 000 person-years respectively. Subjects with ulcerative colitis were more likely to develop colorectal cancer than controls (adjusted Hazard Ratio 1.40 [1.23-1.59]). Colorectal cancer rates remained stable in inflammatory bowel diseases over time. Ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.17 [1.14-1.21] and 1.42 [1.36-1.48] respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The UK prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease is greater than previous reports suggest and we predict an 11% increase in prevalence by the year 2025. Mortality risk in inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer risk in ulcerative colitis are increased compared to matched controls.

The outcomes of biliary drainage by percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography for the palliation of malignant biliary obstruction in England between 2001 and 2014: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Relieving obstructive jaundice in inoperable pancreato-biliary cancers improves quality of life and permits chemotherapy. Percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography with drainage and/or stenting relieves jaundice but can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) in malignant biliary obstruction was therefore examined in a national cohort to establish risk factors for poor outcomes.

METHODS

Retrospective study of adult patients undergoing PTBD for palliation of pancreato-biliary cancer in England between 2001 and 2014 identified from Hospital Episode Statistics. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to examine associations with mortality and the need for a repeat PTBD within 2 months.

RESULTS

16 822 patients analysed (median age 72 (range 19-104) years, 50.3% men). 58% pancreatic and 30% biliary tract cancer. In-hospital and 30-day mortality were 15.3% (95% CI 14.7% to 15.9%) and 23.1% (22.4%-23.8%), respectively. 20.2% suffered a coded complication within 3 months. Factors associated with 30-day mortality: age (≥81 years OR 2.68 (95% CI 2.37 to 3.03), p<0.001), increasing comorbidity (Charlson score 20+, 3.10 (2.64-3.65), p<0.001), pre-existing renal dysfunction (2.37 (2.12-2.65), p<0.001) and non-pancreatic cancer (unspecified biliary tract 1.28 (1.08-1.52), p=0.004). Women had lower mortality (0.91 (0.84-0.98), p=0.011), as did patients undergoing PTBD in a 'higher volume' provider (84-180 PTBDs per year 0.68 (0.58-0.79), p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients undergoing PTBD for the palliation of malignant biliary obstruction, 30-day mortality was high at 23.1%. Mortality was higher in older patients, men, those with increasing comorbidity, a cancer site other than pancreas and at 'lower-volume' PTBD providers.

High-intensity Focused Ultrasound for the Treatment of Prostate Cancer: A National Cohort Study Focusing on the Development of Stricture and Fistulae

BACKGROUND

High-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) is a novel therapy for prostate cancer. Owing to a lack of long-term data, HIFU is recommended for use only in the context of research.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the trend for HIFU use nationally and rates of strictures and fistulae.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Patients undergoing HIFU for prostate cancer between April 2007 and March 2018 were studied in an English national database (Hospital Episode Statistics). Data on complications were included for patients with a minimum of 1-yr follow-up. Analysis of complications was controlled for other interventions.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Descriptive analyses of HIFU rates and the incidence of strictures and fistulae were carried out. Cox and logistic regression models were built for urethral stricture incidence.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

A total of 2320 HIFU treatments among 1990 patients were identified. The median age was 67yr (interquartile range 61-72). Some 1742 patients met the criteria for follow-up analysis. The highest-volume centre performed 1513 HIFU procedures, followed by 194 at the second highest. The number of HIFU procedures increased annually, rising from 196 to 283 per year. There were 208 patients (11.9%) who went on to have radiotherapy and 102 (5.9%) radical prostatectomy after HIFU. Following HIFU, stricture developed in 133/1290 patients (10.3%) and urinary fistula in 16/1240 (1.3%) before any further intervention. More recent years for HIFU were associated with a lower likelihood of stricture formation (2016/2017 vs 2007/2008: hazard ratio 0.30, 95% confidence interval 0.11-0.79; p=0.015). Limitations include the lack of staging information and unknown rates of HIFU outside of publicly funded health care.

CONCLUSIONS

HIFU is performed at a large number of low-volume centres and complication rates do not differ from those for established therapies.

PATIENT SUMMARY

This report highlights the trend for provision of high-intensity focused ultrasound treatment for prostate cancer in England. The results suggest that the rate of urethral structural complications may not be lower than that for established prostate cancer treatments.

A national study of artificial urinary sphincter and male sling implantation after radical prostatectomy in England

OBJECTIVES

To consider the provision of post-radical prostatectomy (RP) continence surgery in England.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with an Office of Population Census and Surveys Classification of Interventions and Procedures, version 4 code for an artificial urinary sphincter (AUS) or male sling between 1 January 2010 and 31 March 2018 were searched for within the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) dataset. Those without previous RP were excluded. Multivariable logistic regressions for repeat AUS and sling procedures were built in stata. Further descriptive analysis of provision of procedures was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 1414 patients had received index AUS, 10.3% of whom had undergone prior radiotherapy; their median follow-up was 3.55 years. The sling cohort contained 816 patients; 6.7% of these had received prior radiotherapy and the median follow-up was 3.23 years. Whilst the number of AUS devices implanted had increased each year, male slings peaked in 2014/2015. AUS redo/removal was performed in 11.2% of patients. Patients in low-volume centres were more likely to require redo/removal (odds ratio [OR] 2.23 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-4.86; P = 0.045). A total of 12.0% patients with a sling progressed to AUS implantation and 1.3% had a second sling. Patients with previous radiotherapy were more likely to require a second operation (OR 2.03 95% CI 1.01-4.06; P = 0.046). Emergency re-admissions within 30 days of index operation were 3.9% and 3.6% fewer in high-volume centres, for AUS and slings respectively. The median time to initial continence surgery from RP was 2.8 years. Increased time from RP conferred no reduced risk of redo surgery for either procedure.

CONCLUSION

There is a volume effect for outcomes of AUS procedures, suggesting that they should only be performed in high-volume centres. Given the known impact of incontinence on quality of life, patients should be referred sooner for post-prostatectomy continence surgery.

Treatment of irritable bowel syndrome with diarrhoea using titrated ondansetron (TRITON): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Irritable bowel syndrome with diarrhoea (IBS-D) affects up to 4% of the general population. Symptoms include frequent, loose, or watery stools with associated urgency, resulting in marked reduction of quality of life and loss of work productivity. Ondansetron, a 5HT3 receptor antagonist, has had an excellent safety record for over 20 years as an antiemetic, yet is not widely used in the treatment of IBS-D. It has, however, been shown to slow colonic transit and in a small randomised, placebo-controlled, cross-over pilot study, benefited patients with IBS-D.

METHODS

This trial is a phase III, parallel group, randomised, double-blind, multi-centre, placebo-controlled trial, with embedded mechanistic studies. Participants (n = 400) meeting Rome IV criteria for IBS-D will be recruited from outpatient and primary care clinics and by social media to receive either ondansetron (dose titrated up to 24 mg daily) or placebo for 12 weeks. Throughout the trial, participants will record their worst abdominal pain, worst urgency, stool frequency, and stool consistency on a daily basis. The primary endpoint is the proportion of "responders" in each group, using Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommendations. Secondary endpoints include pain intensity, stool consistency, frequency, and urgency. Mood and quality of life will also be assessed. Mechanistic assessments will include whole gut transit, faecal tryptase and faecal bile acid concentrations at baseline and between weeks 8 and 11. A subgroup of participants will also undergo assessment of sensitivity (n = 80) using the barostat, and/or high-resolution colonic manometry (n = 40) to assess motor patterns in the left colon and the impact of ondansetron.

DISCUSSION

The TRITON trial aims to assess the effect of ondansetron across multiple centres. By defining ondansetron's mechanisms of action we hope to better identify patients with IBS-D who are likely to respond.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN, ISRCTN17508514 , Registered on 2 October 2017.

Whole Genome Methylation Analysis of Nondysplastic Barrett Esophagus that Progresses to Invasive Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To investigate differences in methylation between patients with nondysplastic Barrett esophagus who progress to invasive adenocarcinoma and those who do not.

BACKGROUND

Identifying patients with nondysplastic Barrett esophagus who progress to invasive adenocarcinoma remains a challenge. Previous studies have demonstrated the potential utility of epigenetic markers for identifying this group.

METHODS

A whole genome methylation interrogation using the Illumina HumanMethylation 450 array of patients with nondysplastic Barrett esophagus who either develop adenocarcinoma or remain static, with validation of findings by bisulfite pyrosequencing.

RESULTS

In all, 12 patients with "progressive" versus 12 with "nonprogressive" nondysplastic Barrett esophagus were analyzed via methylation array. Forty-four methylation markers were identified that may be able to discriminate between nondysplastic Barrett esophagus that either progress to adenocarcinoma or remain static. Hypomethylation of the recently identified tumor suppressor OR3A4 (probe cg09890332) validated in a separate cohort of samples (median methylation in progressors 67.8% vs 96.7% in nonprogressors; P = 0.0001, z = 3.85, Wilcoxon rank-sum test) and was associated with the progression to adenocarcinoma. There were no differences in copy number between the 2 groups, but a global trend towards hypomethylation in the progressor group was observed.

CONCLUSION

Hypomethylation of OR3A4 has the ability to risk stratify the patient with nondysplastic Barrett esophagus and may form the basis of a future surveillance program.

Quality standards in upper gastrointestinal endoscopy: a position statement of the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) and Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland (AUGIS)

This document represents the first position statement produced by the British Society of Gastroenterology and Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland, setting out the minimum expected standards in diagnostic upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. The need for this statement has arisen from the recognition that while technical competence can be rapidly acquired, in practice the performance of a high-quality examination is variable, with an unacceptably high rate of failure to diagnose cancer at endoscopy. The importance of detecting early neoplasia has taken on greater significance in this era of minimally invasive, organ-preserving endoscopic therapy. In this position statement we describe 38 recommendations to improve diagnostic endoscopy quality. Our goal is to emphasise practices that encourage mucosal inspection and lesion recognition, with the aim of optimising the early diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal disease and improving patient outcomes.

Factors Associated with Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Occurrence After Endoscopy that Did Not Diagnose Cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Up to 14 % of upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGIC) subjects underwent esophago-gastro-duodenoscopy (EGD) in the preceding 3 years, which did not detect UGIC. The frequency of such events and associated risk factors was evaluated.

METHODS

UGIC subjects were identified from a UK primary care database. Post-EGD upper gastrointestinal cancers (PEUGIC) cases were subjects undergoing EGD 12-36 months prior to UGIC diagnosis. Controls had not undergone EGD during the same period. Logistic regression analysis examined associations with PEUGIC.

RESULTS

4249 gastric cancer (GC) subjects (44.8 %) and 5238 esophageal cancer (EC) subjects (55.2 %) were analyzed. There were 633 (6.7 %) PEUGIC subjects [279 EC and 354 GC]. Multivariate analysis revealed that younger age [OR 1.02, (95 % CI 1.01-1.03), p < 0.0001], female gender [1.39 (1.17-1.64), p < 0.0001], increasing comorbidity [1.35 (1.13-1.61), p < 0.0001], and greater deprivation [1.31 (1.09-1.59), p = 0.005] were associated with PEUGIC. Alarm symptoms on presentation [0.32 (0.26-0.40), p < 0.0001] were less likely to be associated with PEUGIC. GC was more likely to be associated with PEUGIC than EC [1.33 (1.13-1.58), p = 0.001]. PEUGIC EGDs reported findings associated with UGIC (stricture or ulceration) in 8.3 % of cases, and only 60.9 % had a follow-up EGD within 90 days. PEUGIC rate declined from 7.9 to 2.7 % for EC and 9.0-6.5 % for GC during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

PEUGIC occurs in 6.7 % of UGIC. PEUGIC was associated with GC, younger age, female gender, increasing comorbidity and deprivation, and a lack of alarm symptoms.

Factors associated with colorectal cancer occurrence after colonoscopy that did not diagnose colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Up to 6% of colorectal cancers (CRCs) are diagnosed within 5 years of a colonoscopy that did not diagnose CRC (post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer, PCCRC). PCCRC and associated risk factors were examined within a national hospital episode database.

METHODS

A retrospective case-control study of all colonoscopies performed on adults recorded in Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) between 2003 and 2009 in England. PCCRC cases underwent colonoscopy 6 to 60 months before diagnosis; controls had not undergone colonoscopy 6 to 60 months before diagnosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis examined associations with PCCRC.

RESULTS

A total of 1,439,684 colonoscopies were analyzed, including 67,202 cases of CRC and 8147 cases of PCCRC (12.1%). Multivariate analysis revealed that female sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.19; P < .001), older age (70-74 years) (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00-1.18; P = .039), increased comorbidity (Charlson index 5+) (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.28; P < .003), and CRC of the right side of the colon (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11-1.23; P < .0001) were associated with PCCRC. Emergency colonoscopy (OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.59-0.69; P < .0001) was negatively associated with PCCRC. More individuals with PCCRC developed metastases within 12 months and fewer underwent surgery (OR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.32-0.35; P < .0001) or chemotherapy (OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.62-0.69), P < .0001). PCCRC rates varied 2-fold between providers and PCCRC was associated with medium-volume providers compared with high-volume providers (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27; P = .035). The PCCRC rate fell from 13.8% in 2003 to 11.9% in 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

PCCRC occurred in 12.1% of patients with CRC between 2003 and 2009. PCCRC was associated with female sex, older age, increased comorbidity, CRC of the right side of the colon, elective procedures, and colonoscopy volume. PCCRC was associated with worse outcomes.

Managing a patient with burning mouth syndrome

A 64-year-old woman presented with an increasing frequency of symptoms of heartburn and retrosternal pain over the last few months, and a constant and intense burning pain affecting her tongue tip, mouth and lips for the past 5 years. She found consuming hot drinks exacerbated the burning oral pain and chewing gum seemed to alleviate some of her symptoms. She thought these oral sensations were caused by frequently licking her finger tips to separate prints in her work in publishing. She had been previously diagnosed with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), and her heartburn symptoms had been controlled until recently with lansoprazole 15 mg daily. Her past medical history included irritable bowel syndrome and depression, for which she had been treated with mebeverine and paroxetine for a number of years. She was a non-smoker and did not consume alcohol. Clinical examination was unremarkable with no oral lesions on examination. Her routine laboratory tests, including autoimmune serology, haematinics and thyroid function tests were all within normal limits. She underwent a gastroscopy, which revealed moderate reflux oesophagitis, and following commencing omeprazole 20 mg twice daily, her heartburn resolved. However, her oral burning symptoms were not affected and a diagnosis of burning mouth syndrome (BMS) was made. Following explanation and reassurance concerning the cause of her BMS symptoms, she chose not to receive treatment for this but to access cognitive behavioural therapy in the future if her symptoms worsened.

BOB CAT: A Large-Scale Review and Delphi Consensus for Management of Barrett's Esophagus With No Dysplasia, Indefinite for, or Low-Grade Dysplasia

OBJECTIVES

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a common premalignant lesion for which surveillance is recommended. This strategy is limited by considerable variations in clinical practice. We conducted an international, multidisciplinary, systematic search and evidence-based review of BE and provided consensus recommendations for clinical use in patients with nondysplastic, indefinite, and low-grade dysplasia (LGD).

METHODS

We defined the scope, proposed statements, and searched electronic databases, yielding 20,558 publications that were screened, selected online, and formed the evidence base. We used a Delphi consensus process, with an 80% agreement threshold, using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) to categorize the quality of evidence and strength of recommendations.

RESULTS

In total, 80% of respondents agreed with 55 of 127 statements in the final voting rounds. Population endoscopic screening is not recommended and screening should target only very high-risk cases of males aged over 60 years with chronic uncontrolled reflux. A new international definition of BE was agreed upon. For any degree of dysplasia, at least two specialist gastrointestinal (GI) pathologists are required. Risk factors for cancer include male gender, length of BE, and central obesity. Endoscopic resection should be used for visible, nodular areas. Surveillance is not recommended for <5 years of life expectancy. Management strategies for indefinite dysplasia (IND) and LGD were identified, including a de-escalation strategy for lower-risk patients and escalation to intervention with follow-up for higher-risk patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In this uniquely large consensus process in gastroenterology, we made key clinical recommendations for the escalation/de-escalation of BE in clinical practice. We made strong recommendations for the prioritization of future research.

Polymorphisms near TBX5 and GDF7 are associated with increased risk for Barrett's esophagus

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Barrett's esophagus (BE) increases the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We found the risk to be BE has been associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 6p21 (within the HLA region) and on 16q23, where the closest protein-coding gene is FOXF1. Subsequently, the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON) identified risk loci for BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma near CRTC1 and BARX1, and within 100 kb of FOXP1. We aimed to identify further SNPs that increased BE risk and to validate previously reported associations.

METHODS

We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify variants associated with BE and further analyzed promising variants identified by BEACON by genotyping 10,158 patients with BE and 21,062 controls.

RESULTS

We identified 2 SNPs not previously associated with BE: rs3072 (2p24.1; odds ratio [OR] = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.09-1.18; P = 1.8 × 10(-11)) and rs2701108 (12q24.21; OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.86-0.93; P = 7.5 × 10(-9)). The closest protein-coding genes were respectively GDF7 (rs3072), which encodes a ligand in the bone morphogenetic protein pathway, and TBX5 (rs2701108), which encodes a transcription factor that regulates esophageal and cardiac development. Our data also supported in BE cases 3 risk SNPs identified by BEACON (rs2687201, rs11789015, and rs10423674). Meta-analysis of all data identified another SNP associated with BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma: rs3784262, within ALDH1A2 (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93; P = 3.72 × 10(-9)).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified 2 loci associated with risk of BE and provided data to support a further locus. The genes we found to be associated with risk for BE encode transcription factors involved in thoracic, diaphragmatic, and esophageal development or proteins involved in the inflammatory response.

Is hormone replacement therapy in post-menopausal women associated with a reduced risk of oesophageal cancer?

PURPOSE

The rise in oesophageal adenocarcinoma incidence in women with age is delayed compared with men until the post-menopausal period. A matched cohort study was therefore undertaken of post-menopausal women on hormone replacement therapy (HRT) to examine the association between HRT, oesophageal cancer and the potentially associated conditions, reflux oesophagitis and Barrett's oesophagus.

METHODS

Women aged over 50 years within the UK General Practice Research Database with a history of HRT exposure were matched by age and general practice with controls without HRT exposure (1:1). Matched Cox-regression analysis was performed to estimate adjusted hazard ratios.

RESULTS

51,851 HRT users and controls were studied. Prolonged HRT use for 5-10 years (hazard ratio 0.25 (95% CI 0.07-0.95)) and time-dependent covariates for increasing duration of HRT use (0.06 (0.01-0.43)) were associated with a reduced oesophageal cancer risk. HRT use was associated with reflux oesophagitis (1.27 (1.12-1.43)), but when analysis was confined to women with codes for both reflux oesophagitis and endoscopy there was no association (1.1 (0.81-1.44)), suggesting increased reporting of reflux symptoms among HRT users rather than an association with endoscopic reflux oesophagitis.

CONCLUSION

Long-term post-menopausal HRT may be associated with a reduced risk of oesophageal cancer.

How commonly is upper gastrointestinal cancer missed at endoscopy? A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer in the Western world usually presents at an advanced stage, when opportunities for curative therapy are limited. The failure to detect subtle, early-stage UGI cancer at endoscopy may contribute to a poor prognosis. We undertook a meta-analysis of studies of endoscopic miss rates for UGI cancer to quantify how often opportunities to diagnose cancer at an earlier stage are missed.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A MEDLINE search was conducted to identify relevant studies, and a meta-analysis was conducted. "Missed" UGI cancer was defined as cancer that had not been diagnosed by UGI endoscopy performed within 3 years before the diagnosis. Random effects meta-analysis was used to determine the event rate of missed UGI cancer.

RESULTS

Ten studies were identified that included 3,787 patients with UGI cancer. Four hundred eighty-seven UGI cancers were missed at endoscopy within 3 years before diagnosis. Marked heterogeneity was observed between studies (I (2), 94.4 %; P < 0.001). On random effects meta-analysis, the pooled miss rates were 6.4 % (95 % confidence interval [CI], 4.3 % - 9.5 %) within 1 year and 11.3 % (95 % CI, 7.5 % - 16.6 %) within 3 years before diagnosis. There appeared to be no difference between the miss rates of oesophageal (44 %) and gastric (51 %) cancer (P = 0.42). Conclusion It appears that 11.3 % of UGI cancers are missed at endoscopy up to 3 years before diagnosis. To ameliorate the poor prognosis of patients with UGI cancer in the Western world, efforts should be made to improve the quality of UGI endoscopy and create opportunities for earlier diagnosis.

Managing a patient with excessive belching

A 50-year-old man with end-stage renal failure was referred by his general practitioner with dyspeptic symptoms. On further questioning the patient complained of a 10-year history of frequent belching. This was noticeably worse after meals and during times of stress. He did not have nocturnal belching and episodes of belching were less frequent when the patient was talking or distracted. There was no history of gastro-oesophageal reflux, vomiting, dysphagia, loss of appetite or weight loss. He was diagnosed with excessive, probably supragastric, belching. Further investigation was not deemed necessary. His symptoms have since settled with simple reassurance and explanation of their origin provided during the clinic visit.

British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines on the diagnosis and management of Barrett's oesophagus

These guidelines provide a practical and evidence-based resource for the management of patients with Barrett's oesophagus and related early neoplasia. The Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) instrument was followed to provide a methodological strategy for the guideline development. A systematic review of the literature was performed for English language articles published up until December 2012 in order to address controversial issues in Barrett's oesophagus including definition, screening and diagnosis, surveillance, pathological grading for dysplasia, management of dysplasia, and early cancer including training requirements. The rigour and quality of the studies was evaluated using the SIGN checklist system. Recommendations on each topic were scored by each author using a five-tier system (A+, strong agreement, to D+, strongly disagree). Statements that failed to reach substantial agreement among authors, defined as >80% agreement (A or A+), were revisited and modified until substantial agreement (>80%) was reached. In formulating these guidelines, we took into consideration benefits and risks for the population and national health system, as well as patient perspectives. For the first time, we have suggested stratification of patients according to their estimated cancer risk based on clinical and histopathological criteria. In order to improve communication between clinicians, we recommend the use of minimum datasets for reporting endoscopic and pathological findings. We advocate endoscopic therapy for high-grade dysplasia and early cancer, which should be performed in high-volume centres. We hope that these guidelines will standardise and improve management for patients with Barrett's oesophagus and related neoplasia.

Guidelines on the irritable bowel syndrome: mechanisms and practical management

BACKGROUND

IBS affects 5-11% of the population of most countries. Prevalence peaks in the third and fourth decades, with a female predominance.

AIM

To provide a guide for the assessment and management of adult patients with irritable bowel syndrome.

METHODS

Members of the Clinical Services Committee of The British Society of Gastroenterology were allocated particular areas to produce review documents. Literature searching included systematic searches using electronic databases such as Pubmed, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases and extensive personal reference databases.

RESULTS

Patients can usefully be classified by predominant bowel habit. Few investigations are needed except when diarrhoea is a prominent feature. Alarm features may warrant further investigation. Adverse psychological features and somatisation are often present. Ascertaining the patients' concerns and explaining symptoms in simple terms improves outcome. IBS is a heterogeneous condition with a range of treatments, each of which benefits a small proportion of patients. Treatment of associated anxiety and depression often improves bowel and other symptoms. Randomised placebo controlled trials show benefit as follows: cognitive behavioural therapy and psychodynamic interpersonal therapy improve coping; hypnotherapy benefits global symptoms in otherwise refractory patients; antispasmodics and tricyclic antidepressants improve pain; ispaghula improves pain and bowel habit; 5-HT(3) antagonists improve global symptoms, diarrhoea, and pain but may rarely cause unexplained colitis; 5-HT(4) agonists improve global symptoms, constipation, and bloating; selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors improve global symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Better ways of identifying which patients will respond to specific treatments are urgently needed.

Guidelines on the irritable bowel syndrome: mechanisms and practical management

BACKGROUND

IBS affects 5-11% of the population of most countries. Prevalence peaks in the third and fourth decades, with a female predominance.

AIM

To provide a guide for the assessment and management of adult patients with irritable bowel syndrome.

METHODS

Members of the Clinical Services Committee of The British Society of Gastroenterology were allocated particular areas to produce review documents. Literature searching included systematic searches using electronic databases such as Pubmed, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases and extensive personal reference databases.

RESULTS

Patients can usefully be classified by predominant bowel habit. Few investigations are needed except when diarrhoea is a prominent feature. Alarm features may warrant further investigation. Adverse psychological features and somatisation are often present. Ascertaining the patients' concerns and explaining symptoms in simple terms improves outcome. IBS is a heterogeneous condition with a range of treatments, each of which benefits a small proportion of patients. Treatment of associated anxiety and depression often improves bowel and other symptoms. Randomised placebo controlled trials show benefit as follows: cognitive behavioural therapy and psychodynamic interpersonal therapy improve coping; hypnotherapy benefits global symptoms in otherwise refractory patients; antispasmodics and tricyclic antidepressants improve pain; ispaghula improves pain and bowel habit; 5-HT(3) antagonists improve global symptoms, diarrhoea, and pain but may rarely cause unexplained colitis; 5-HT(4) agonists improve global symptoms, constipation, and bloating; selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors improve global symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Better ways of identifying which patients will respond to specific treatments are urgently needed.

Familial factors in the etiology of gastroesophageal reflux disease, Barrett's esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma

Familial aggregation of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms has been established clearly in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease and its complications. Preliminary reports of twin studies suggest that this aggregation has a significant genetic component. A genetic predisposition to gastroesophageal reflux may be expressed phenotypically as disordered gastroesophageal motility and hiatus hernia but these disorders may be secondary to chronic gastroesophageal reflux. Linkage studies, the discovery of candidate genes for gastroesophageal reflux, and their phenotypic expression are awaited with interest.